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Ryan Zimmerman On Playing Beyond 2020

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After capturing a World Series title at age 35, in the same season his six-year, $100MM contract came to a close, Ryan Zimmerman could’ve opted to hang up his cleats in storybook fashion had he so wished. But the two-time All-Star clearly felt he had more left to experience in the game and ultimately took a sizable pay cut to return to the Nationals on a one-year, $2MM deal this winter. With the season on hold indefinitely, Zimmerman acknowledges within a self-penned guest piece for the Associated Press that it’s been hard not to think about life after baseball, but he indicated that as things stand, he hopes to continue playing not only in 2020 but perhaps beyond.

“If it turns out there isn’t a 2020 season, and I had to decide right now about 2021, I would say: Yes, I definitely would plan on playing next year,” Zimmerman writes. The 15-year Nationals veteran adds that he had no interest in signing anywhere but back with the Nationals this winter and only plans to sign one-year deals from this point forth, so as to assess how his body holds up on a year-to-year basis. Of course, based on his age and level of play in 2019, that was all that was reasonable to expect anyhow.

Zimmerman spent much of this past season on the injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and when he was healthy enough to take the field, he wasn’t particularly productive. The 2019 season marked just the second time in his excellent career that he rated below league average at the plate, by measure of wRC+ (89) and OPS+ (86). Through 190 plate appearances, Zimmerman slashed a .257/.321/.415 with six long balls and nine doubles.

Zimmerman’s balky foot quite likely impacted his performance in virtually all aspects of the game, and it should be pointed out that from 2017-18, he turned in a quite-productive .289/.350/.542 batting line. However, staying on the field has also become increasingly difficult for Zimmerman as he’s played into his mid-30s. Dating back to the 2014 campaign, he’s averaged just 92 games and 364 plate appearances per year while missing time due to to oblique, wrist, hamstring and rib cage issues in addition to three separate IL stints for plantar fasciitis.

Presently, it appears the downtime has done Zimmerman some good. He writes that he feels “unbelievable” having been able to work out without grinding through the rigors of a 162-game schedule, although he makes clear that he’s eager to return to the field and experience the feeling of defending a World Series title for the first time. It seems nearly impossible to envision Zimmerman playing anywhere else, and given that the team values him beyond his on-field contributions, it’s not tough to see him suiting up for a few more years if he feels up to the challenge.

A Battle Of NL East Superstars

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We’ve seen two of the brightest young offensive stars in baseball emerge in the National League East over the past couple years. The Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Nationals’ Juan Soto have been enormously successful since they made their debuts in 2018, and the outfielders have played important roles in helping lead their clubs to prominence. The Braves have taken the division in each of Acuna’s two seasons, while Soto was among the reasons the Nationals won their first-ever World Series last fall. The two look as if they’ll be franchise cornerstones for the long haul, but if you can only have one, which player would you pick?

Going by production, there hasn’t been a huge difference in their careers so far. The 22-year-old Acuna’s a 9.3-fWAR player through his first 1,202 plate appearances and a .285/.365/.532 hitter with 67 home runs, 53 stolen bases and an excellent wRC+ of 133. The righty masher fell just shy of a 40/40 effort in 2019, when he smacked 41 dingers and swiped an NL-high 37 bags. Furthermore, Acuna has fared respectably as a defender thus far – including as the Braves’ primary center fielder last year – with 16 DRS and a minus-0.6 UZR to this point.

By measure of wRC+, Soto has been an even more effective hitter than Acuna. Soto, who only became old enough to legally drink as last year’s World Series was going on, owns a jaw-dropping 143 mark in that category. The lefty swinger’s a .287/.403/.535 batter with 56 homers and 8.5 fWAR through 1,153 PA, though he doesn’t come close to Acuna in terms of stolen bases (17). Acuna’s overall defensive output has also been better, but Soto did make strides in that area last season. After putting up minus-6 DRS and minus-4.2 UZR as a rookie in left field, he improved to zero and minus-0.7 in those categories as a sophomore.

The overall numbers Acuna and Soto have managed at such young ages have been astounding. But you can’t just consider production when comparing the two. One of the key facts about Acuna is that his team has already locked him up for the foreseeable future, as the Braves extended him to an eight-year, $100MM guarantee after his first season. With $17MM club options for 2027 and ’28, the deal could keep Acuna in place for almost the whole decade. That’s a lengthy commitment and a lot of money, but it has nonetheless always come off as a no-brainer move from Atlanta’s perspective.

The Nationals would surely love to sign Soto to a similar pact, but it’s hard to believe they’ll get him on such a team-friendly deal. At the very least, though, they do still have the right to control the Scott Boras client for the next half-decade, including one more pre-arbitration year if a season does take place in 2020.

The bottom line is that you can’t lose with either of these players, no doubt two of the greatest assets in the sport. But you’re only allowed to build around one of them, so take your pick…

(Poll link for app users)

What Might A Max Scherzer Extension Look Like?

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The last time he tried to sort out a new contract with his existing team, things didn’t exactly work out as hoped. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth it for the Nationals to try … after all, Max Scherzer was once open to doing a contract with the Tigers. And when he addressed the topic this spring, Scherzer expressed some degree of openness … though he also indicated he has no interest in pushing the topic himself with two seasons remaining on his old free agent pact.

[MLBTR on YouTube: What If Max Scherzer Stayed A Tiger?]

It’s worth wondering whether a deal might actually make sense for both Scherzer and the Nationals. Committing in advance to a pitcher is always cause for some trepidation, all the more so at the prices and ages at issue here. But … well, let’s just say I won’t be the one to ask the famously intense hurler whether he’s still up to the rigors of the sport.

Scherzer has mostly been an exceptionally durable pitcher, though his decade-long string of 30+ starts finally ended in 2019. He ran into some ailments in the postseason and experienced minor health issues this spring. There’s not much cause for worry, but it’s still a reminder of baseball mortality. Many great players have run into late-career roadblocks relatively suddenly.

Let’s be honest, though: Scherzer is still one of the very best in the business. While he missed five starts last season, he still provided 172 1/3 innings of 2.92 ERA ball. And he turned in a league-leading, career-low 2.45 FIP by generating 12.7 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. His 2.88 xFIP matches his lowest mark since coming to D.C. Scherzer posted a career-best 16.3% swinging-strike rate while maintaining a 95.2 mph average four-seamer — tied for a personal high.

If Scherzer isn’t the single best pitcher in baseball, it’s only because Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have elevated their own games that much more. There is one other guy who deserves mention, though, when considering the very top starters over the past two seasons. Like Scherzer, this Justin Verlander fella has only increased his output since leaving the Tigers, where they both once starred … and he isn’t exactly a spring chicken.

Verlander represents the key comp when considering a potential Scherzer extension. His new deal — which was inked last spring and was to go into effect for the 2020 season — represents a highly relevant bit of contractual precedent. At two years and $66MM, the deal provides Verlander with eye-popping money at quite an advanced stage of his career: his age-37 and 38 seasons. You can easily argue that it’s still a reasonably team-friendly rate of pay.

That pact was entered just before the start of the 2019 season, which was to be Verlander’s walk year. There weren’t any performance-based discounts: He was coming off of a doozy of a campaign in which he racked up 214 innings of 2.52 ERA ball with dominant peripherals and rising swinging-strike numbers. But Verlander quite understandably couldn’t pry loose both a premium average annual value and an overly lengthy commitment from the Astros.

Like Verlander, Scherzer is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-37 campaign. To be fair, though, the latter will hit the open market at a bit more advanced age than the former would’ve. Scherzer turned 35 late last July, so while 2020 is designated his age-35 season, he’s actually closer in age right now to where Verlander was (he had just turned 36) when he inked his deal. But Scherzer is two full seasons away from free agency, rather than one, as was JV.

You have to think the Nationals would jump at the opportunity to tack on two years to Scherzer’s deal at the Verlander rate. There was no indication that the Nats and Scherzer were going to reach agreement before Spring Training, so perhaps this is a conversation for the 2020-21 offseason. More will be known then, especially if the team gets to watch its staff co-ace work in a truncated 2020 campaign. There’s less risk committing later, of course. But leverage will also be lost in the meantime.

Honestly, it might be worth making a run at a deal once the contract freeze is lifted; perhaps there were even some talks beforehand that never reached the public eye. While agent Scott Boras isn’t fond of deals that keep his players from the open market, he has worked extensively with Nationals ownership — including on two massive contracts with the team’s other top starter, Stephen Strasburg, one of which was an extension. Sorting something out to keep Max in D.C. through the end of his career would not only mean locking in another part of the team’s highly paid, three-headed pitching monster (Patrick Corbin being the other), but might ensure that Scherzer becomes the first player to don a Nationals cap in Cooperstown. (He’s not a sure thing just yet, but isn’t far from locking down future admission.)

Thing is: would Scherzer really be willing to settle for a two-year deal, even at a sum that tops Verlander by a bit? Or would he hold out for an even larger and/or longer deal? Cole just took home a $36MM AAV on his monster contract with the Yankees. Perhaps Mad Max — who has earned that appellation through unremitting competitiveness — would want to be paid at or above that level on an annual basis. Maybe he’d find it limiting to suggest he’s only worthy of a two-year extension. Scherzer certainly doesn’t seem like the type to settle for something fair and plan ahead for hanging up his spikes. Come to think of it, he may not be that interested in a deal at all. He’s obviously loaded already, so this wouldn’t be life-changing cash (not that it was for Verlander, needless to say). Scherzer might rather wait to return to free agency … unless, at least, the Nats proved willing to go absolutely wild with an offer to keep him without the need to top other bids. Could it take three guaranteed years? Four?!

It’s anyone’s guess what his personal view is, not to mention that of Boras, but it’s unlikely that it would make a ton of sense for the Nationals to over-commit. The team already placed a huge bet on Strasburg and will be paying Corbin major money through 2024, so there’s a lot of rotation cash on the books already. While Scherzer’s a living legend who’s arguably just as good now as ever before, the baseball reaper ultimately comes for all the great ones. The only risks are paying him a bit more or losing him free agency. Then again, with a pitcher as special Scherzer, the thought of a departure may be enough to spur the Nationals to enter completely new contractual terrain to forestall that possibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Cora, Mize, Minors, Cubs, Nats

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Former Red Sox skipper Alex Cora is suspended for all of the 2020 season as a result of the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach in their 2017 sign-stealing scandal, but it may not be long before he’s in a prominent position again. If the World Baseball Classic takes place in 2021, Cora may be in line to manage or perhaps serve as the GM of the Puerto Rican team. On potentially hiring Cora, president of the Puerto Rican Baseball Federation Jose Quiles told Primera Hora (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com): “Of course we would consider it. We already know the work he does. He would be considered as much for general manager as he would be for manager.” Cora was the GM of the 2017 Puerto Rican club that lost just one game – the championship round against the United States.

Here’s more from around the game…

  • High-end Tigers pitching prospect Casey Mize is holding out hope that he’ll make his major league debut in 2020, as Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes. “It is very frustrating,” Mize told McCosky the coronavirus-forced shutdown. “This is the year I’d hoped to spend a lot of quality time in the big leagues and make my debut. And if there is a season, that is still my goal. That is still something I want to accomplish.” The 22-year-old Mize is keeping in shape by throwing five days a week, including a 40-pitch bullpen session every Wednesday. The No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, Mize further proved himself as one of the best prospects in baseball last year when he threw 78 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball during his Double-A debut.
  • Contraction of minor league teams seems to be on the way, but the Cubs won’t be among the franchises affected, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago details. They’re not in position to lose any of their affiliates, which Cubs senior director for player development Matt Dorey told Wittenmyer is “not surprising at all.” The Cubs have been impressed with the work that all of their lower level teams have put in, Dorey explained to Wittenmyer, and they believe those partnerships will continue. “It’s amazing how much investment in resources they’ve made to put our players in the best position to develop,” Dorey said.
  • Changes to the minor league setup may allow the St. Paul Saints of the independent American Association to become an affiliated team, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reported earlier this week. But the Saints are content in their current position. They’ve “had very little to do with this other than our name being mentioned,’’ executive vice president and general manager Derek Sharrer told Jim Paulsen of the Star Tribune. Sharrer added: “We’re a member of an independent league, and we’re very happy with it. Our heritage, our DNA, is tied into being independent. We’ve had success both on and off the field. We provide a brand of entertainment with a certain renegade independent feel to it, but we’re certainly flattered to be in the discussion.”
  • The Nationals are the latest team that has committed to paying their non-player employees through the end of May, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. They join most of the league’s other clubs in that regard.

Transaction Retrospection: A Washington-Oakland Blockbuster

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It has been almost three full years since the Nationals and Athletics swung a noteworthy trade that has already made a big impact and could continue to have a sizable effect in the coming seasons. Leading up to the July 2017 trade deadline, the Nationals acquired relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson in exchange for fellow reliever Blake Treinen and a pair of prospects in left-hander Jesus Luzardo and third baseman Sheldon Neuse.

It was a bold strike for the Nationals, then way ahead of their competition in the NL East but aiming to patch up a poor bullpen. Doolittle and Madson did indeed continue to put up stellar numbers after the trade, helping the Nationals to a division title. The Nats then bowed out of the playoffs in the NLDS with a five-game defeat at the hands of the Cubs, though Doolittle and Madson were effective in that series.

Unfortunately for Washington, the 2017 campaign was the last good one of Madson’s career. He pitched to a 5.28 ERA over 44 1/3 innings in their uniform in 2018 – a non-playoff effort for the team. With the Nationals mired in mediocrity in late August of that year, they traded him to the Dodgers for righty Andrew Istler. Madson’s struggles continued in LA, and he hasn’t pitched since.

Doolittle, on the other hand, remains a valuable member of Washington’s roster. The southpaw has logged a stingy 2.87 ERA with 10.47 K/9, 1.93 BB/9 and 75 saves in 83 chances across 135 innings in a Nationals uniform. The 33-year-old’s regular-season output in 2019 was somewhat underwhelming, but he made up for it by serving as an instrumental piece in helping the franchise to its first-ever World Series title in the fall. Doolittle combined for 10 1/3 frames of two-run ball in series wins over the Dodgers, Cardinals and Astros. He’ll be a National for at least one more season (if there is one), as they picked up his $6.5MM club option after last year.

Flags fly forever, so in light of Doolittle’s contributions, the Nationals would probably make this trade again. The same goes for the Athletics. Sure, Madson and Doolittle impressed when they were part of the club, but the A’s have benefited quite a bit from selling high on those two. The A’s weren’t in contention when the trade went down, and nor did they make the playoffs that year, but Treinen helped key a postseason return in 2018 with one of the greatest campaigns a reliever has ever put forth. He recorded a ridiculous 0.78 ERA with 38 saves, thereby aiding in a 97-win season for the A’s. They posted the same record en route to another postseason berth last year, though Treinen’s production fell off a cliff, and he lost his job as their closer as a result. He’s now a member of the Dodgers after the A’s non-tendered him over the winter.

While Treinen’s success in Oakland was fleeting, the team could profit from Luzardo’s presence for a long time. Nineteen years old when the trade occurred, Luzardo entered 2017 as Baseball America’s 15th-best Nationals prospect. He’s now one of the premier prospects in all of baseball (BA ranks him ninth) and someone with front-of-the-rotation upside. For Luzardo to realize that potential, though, he’ll have to stay healthy.

Luzardo’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed most of last season with rotator cuff and lat troubles, but the results were scintillating when he was able to pitch. He made his major league debut late in the year out of the A’s bullpen and proceeded to fire 12 innings of two-run ball with 16 strikeouts, three walks and just five hits given up. The A’s will obviously hope for that dominance to carry over when he joins their rotation.

Neuse, 25, is not an elite farmhand, but there’s still hope for him to amount to something in the bigs. He had difficulty over his first 61 MLB plate appearances last year, though he was terrific in Triple-A ball, where he batted .317/.389/.550 (126 wRC+) with 27 home runs in 560 PA. MLB.com is bullish on Neuse, rating him sixth in the A’s system and writing that he “could be a big league regular in another organization, but for now looks like a very solid super-utility type whose bat will force its way into the lineup more often than not.”

Assessing this trade now, it looks like a win-win. The Nationals would love to have Luzardo vying for a spot in their already stacked rotation, and they probably wouldn’t mind having Neuse around to push for playing time. But you can’t take away the championship Doolittle helped them win. On the other side, the A’s received an unforgettable season from Treinen and could have one or two long-term contributors in Luzardo and Neuse.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

More Than A Decade Of Mike Rizzo Trades

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Expectations weren’t all that lofty when Mike Rizzo took over D.C. baseball operations back in 2009. It’s safe to say he has exceeded them. His first roster matched the ’08 outfit with a brutal 59-win effort. That ramped to 69-93 and then 80-81 in the ensuing two seasons. The Nats broke out in 2012 and haven’t had a losing campaign since. There has been quite a lot of drama over the years, but the D.C. organization finally broke through a postseason curse with a stunning run to a title in 2019.

Rizzo’s history on the trade market includes some duds, but also quite a few slam dunks. He’s still not under contract beyond the 2020 season, though the expectation remains that he’ll end up working out another extension to remain at the helm.

2009 Season

2009-10 Offseason

2010 Season

2010-11 Offseason

2011 Season

2011-12 Offseason

2012 Season

2012-13 Offseason

2013 Season

2013-14 Offseason

2014 Season

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

—

With that exhausting exercise out of the way — it’s time for MLBTR readers to weigh in! What grade does the president of baseball operations of the reigning World Champs get for his trading efforts? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories?

We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Reds GM Dick Williams, Orioles GM Mike Elias, former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart, and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.

Giving The Sixth Man Of The Year Award To Howie Kendrick

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For those in the Mid-Atlantic, the Nationals and Astros road warrior World Series is airing on MASN this week. For the rest of us, the 7-game battle has hardly disappeared from memory, as it remains the most recent non-exhibition game played in Major League Baseball. Still, when a player steps up his game on the biggest stage and raises his profile like Howie Kendrick did last fall, it’s hard not to look back early and often to re-live the heroics.

Strictly by definition, Kendrick wasn’t even an “everyday player” for the Nationals last season. Coming off an achilles injury and playing in his age-35 season, manager Dave Martinez was rigid about giving Kendrick enough rest to keep him fresh throughout the season. No matter the volume of clamor from Nationals fans, Martinez refused to deploy Kendrick indiscriminately, starting him in only 70 of the team’s 162 games (with liberal usage off the bench). Kendrick was the designated hitter of choice for Martinez in 7 of 10 interleague road games, and he also called upon Kendrick 41 times as a pinch-hitter.

While Kendrick found himself on the bench more often than not, he still added value as a versatile defender. Of the games he did start, 35 came at first base, 18 at second, and 10 at third. Unlike years past, Kendrick wasn’t utilized in the outfield, but it’s hard to know if that was a strategic decision made to shelter Kendrick. The Nats simply had no need to deploy him in the grass having gotten uncharacteristically stable play from their trio of outfielders. Juan Soto started 147 games in left, Victor Robles made 147 starts between center and right, and even the previously-fragile Adam Eaton made 143 outfield starts in 2019 (his most since 2016).

Whatever the reason, it’s hard to knock the Nationals’ prudent use of Kendrick. Not only did he stay healthy, but he came through time and time again, finishing with an otherworldly slash line of .344/.395/.572 across 370 plate appearances. If baseball had a sixth man award, it would be intended to spotlight a season exactly like Kendrick’s 2019. He was Lou Williams: high-energy, low-maintenance, instant offense off the bench.

And like Williams, Truck could close. Without a true sixth man award, Kendrick took the postseason as his opportunity to shine. It’s hard to imagine a player of Kendrick’s pedigree seizing quite so many opportunities for heroics in a single postseason (I see your hand, David Freese, but I’m not calling on you). As in his career on the whole, Kendrick wasn’t perfect. He made a couple of errors, looked foolish on the bases at times and finished the postseason with a slash line (.286/.328/.444) that one could easily overlook.

But in terms of peak value, Kendrick made his hits count. First, there was the series-winning, 10th-inning grand slam in the winner-take-all game five to vanquish the Dodgers. Considering this was just the Nationals second win in a winner-take-all-game in their history (coming a week after their first), Kendrick’s grand slam was, at the time, no doubt the biggest hit in Nationals’ team history. No longer could the Nats be shrugged aside as a franchise without a postseason series win (Mets fans on Twitter will have to find something new). With a history as long and storied as baseball’s, it’s rare these days to have the opportunity to watch in-real-time as moments exists in a self-actualized vacuum wherein each big hit instantly supplants its prior as the biggest in team history – but that was the case for the Nats this postseason, and Kendrick was the guy who kept outbidding himself with greater and greater moments.

Kendrick didn’t get that scene-stealing moment in the NLCS, but he did capture MVP honors by hitting .333/.412/.600 with four doubles. Kendrick was great against the Cardinals, but let’s be clear, he was not the most valuable piece of the Nats’ NLCS puzzle. That would be the starting pitchers, who didn’t allow an earned run until game four, yielding just 7 hits across those three games while striking out 28. When everyone is an ace, no one is an ace, so Kendrick took home the hardware for continuing to put together quality at-bats and driving home important runs.

But there’s no such thing as a transcendent playoff performance that doesn’t include the World Series. Pitching again took centerstage for the Nats, especially as the bats went ice-cold at home. The Nats scored just one run apiece in each of their home games, taking the L in all three. Kendrick went one-for-eight at home while only starting in games four and five. He had a good game two in Houston, but it was a relatively punchless series for Kendrick by the time he came to the dish in the top of the seventh inning of game 7, his club trailing by one. Kendrick’s biggest moment of the postseason – of his career – gave the Nats their fifth come-from-behind victory of the playoffs – the most ever – and it solidified his place in the baseball canon.

What made Kendrick’s postseason play so impressive, really, was how late it came it a good-but-not-great career. The bulk of Howie’s career took place on good-but-not-great Angels teams that, like Kendrick himself, were often quite good, but failed to make a lasting impact on the baseball landscape.

Kendrick himself went from productive regular to bench contributor for the Dodgers and Phillies before making his way to Washington. Now, you’ll be hard-pressed to find an announcer in the game who hasn’t referred to Kendrick as a “professional hitter.” To their collective credit, they’re not wrong. Kendrick is a career .294 batter who consistently puts the bat on the ball, never striking out in more than 20.4% of his plate appearances. Most seasons his strikeout rate hovers around 16-17%, though in 2019 he was even better, striking out a career-low 13.2% of the time.

Kendrick can hit, but that’s far and away his best skill. His 9.2% walk rate in 2016 with the Dodgers was easily a career-high. His career rate is 5.4%. He runs okay, but not great, notching double-digit stolen bases in 8 different seasons, but never more than 14, a high he reached four times. Generally speaking, he’s about a 14-stolen-bases level defender as well, sure-handed as a second baseman, but never threatening as a top shelf defender. Power-wise, his career .137 ISO leaves a lot to be desired, but he hit for just enough power to leverage the rest of his skillset. He was an All-Star once (2011) when he finished with 4.6 bWAR, and his “best season” earned him an 18-spot in MVP voting. That came in 2014, his last with the Angels, when he put up 6.1 bWAR/4.6 fWAR, which is impressive considering it was one of his worst power outputs, finishing .293/.347/.397 with just 7 home runs.

But in 2019 everything clicked for Kendrick. He managed 17 home runs while easily notching career highs in many rate metrics (ie, .228 ISO, 146 wRC+). Before last season, he’d never been more than 23% better than league average. But achilles surgery clearly agrees with Kendrick, because at age-35, not only was he 46% better than average, but he put a bow on his career year with the final game-winning hit of the season. More than any award, that’s the type of thing baseball remembers.

Revisiting The Nats’ “Steal” Of A Deal

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Back in the 2013-14 offseason, the Tigers were looking to move a veteran starter … but not because they were in a rebuild. The club had taken three consecutive AL Central titles (and would add another in the ensuing campaign).

The issue was quite the opposite: with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly all on the staff, the Detroit organization felt it had depth to spare. Looking ahead at the cost to retain the team’s stars — they ultimately failed to reach a deal with Scherzer but inked a monster extension with Miguel Cabrera later that offseason — the decision was made to trim some costs where possible and bring back some long-range talent.

Meanwhile, the Nationals were in search of a quality arm to plug into would land Fister in a swap that sent a largely underwhelming three-player package back to the Tigers. Utilityman Steve Lombardozzi and lefty reliever Ian Krol were each young players with MLB experience but little in the way of apparent ceiling. The Tigers hoped that they’d be affordable contributors, but neither carved out a career in Detroit. The most interesting long-term piece was a notable but not overly heralded lefty pitching prospect by the name of Robbie Ray.

This wasn’t quite how the Tigers wanted talks to play out. The club reportedly wanted a different young hurler to headline the deal: Taylor Jordan, who had emerged out of obscurity in 2013. Jordan utilized his decidedly Fister-esque skillset to compile 51 2/3 innings of 3.66 ERA work in 2013, averaging just 5.1 K/9 but limiting the walks (1.9 BB/9) and homers (0.52 HR/9) while generating lots of groundballs (57.5%). It seemed Jordan might well be a long-term rotation piece, even if it was unlikely he’d ever really dominate.

Ray, a 22-year-old former 12th-round pick, hadn’t yet reached the highest level of the minors, let alone the bigs. But he was perhaps a higher-ceiling young hurler than Jordan. In 2013, Ray worked to a 3.68 cumulative ERA over 142 frames at the High-A and Double-A levels while racking up 10.1 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.

For good reason, the Nationals were widely lauded for their acquisition. I characterized the deal as a value-laden, well-timed strike. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs said the Nats had paid “a shockingly low price, considering that Fister is one of the game’s most underrated pitchers.” While anything but flashy, the tall right-hander had a nice track record of high-quality rotation work — over 800 frames of 3.53 ERA ball — and came with two seasons of remaining arbitration control. The thievery metaphor was popular, beginning with the title of Cameron’s post. Plenty of people termed the swap a “steal,” especially after Fister turned in an outstanding 2014 campaign.

There’s no discounting Fister’s excellence in his first year in D.C. Though he missed some action, he still managed to spin 164 innings of 2.41 ERA ball. But as it turned out, that would be the last truly productive campaign of his career. Fister struggled with a lat injury at the start of the ensuing campaign and never really got going. He did manage a useful 4.19 ERA in 103 frames in 2015, so it was hardly a minimal contribution, but the peripherals didn’t support the results and the output didn’t account for his final arbitration salary of $11.4MM. Any thoughts of recouping draft compensation by issuing a qualifying offer went right out the window.

On the other side of the swap … well, the Tigers didn’t quite get what they hoped for either, but they only had their own ensuing actions to blame. After watching Ray struggle in a brief 2014 debut, Detroit ended up sending him out in a memorable three-team trade that really didn’t work out for the Motown side. That deal, which also cost the Tigers a decent infield prospect in Domingo Leyba, returned righty Shane Greene. While he had his moments in Detroit, they came after he transitioned to a relief role. Greene was swapped out last summer. The arrangement would have gone better had the Tigers simply taken shortstop Didi Gregorius, who ended up with the Yankees.

By that point, Ray was ready for a full test at the MLB level. He turned in a very strong debut in 2015. And while the results have taken a bit of a rollercoaster ride since, he has produced huge strikeout numbers and generally fared well in the eyes of advanced metrics. Ray has contributed 762 innings of 3.96 ERA ball in Arizona while racking up 11.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. The long ball has been an issue, but it hasn’t stopped him from compiling 10 rWAR and a dozen fWAR — well over twice what Fister ended up providing to the Nats (4.5 rWAR / 1.7 fWAR) — in advance of his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Do The Nats Have Yet Another High-Quality Starter On Their Hands?

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The trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin is enough to make almost any club enviable — not necessarily of the price tags but of their raw abilities on the mound. When the Nats added Anibal Sanchez to that bunch on the heels of a resurgent 2018 season, it almost seemed as though it didn’t even matter who the fifth starter was. With Strasburg re-upping on what was briefly a record deal at this year’s Winter Meetings, that same thought might’ve crossed the minds of some. And while it’s true that the Nats’ rotation will be stacked with or without a decent fifth starter, they might have a better option on their hands than most realize.

Austin Voth is already 27 years old (28 in June) and only pitched 43 2/3 innings for the Nationals in 2019. He and fellow righty Joe Ross were set to battle it out for the final rotation spot in camp this spring, and while I was personally all aboard the Ross train back in 2015-16, it’s Voth who now looks like the breakout candidate in the making.

Austin Voth | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

A former fifth-round pick of the Nationals (2013), Voth isn’t exactly new to their rotation radar. Back in 2016, he spent his age-24 season in Triple-A and spun 157 innings off 3.15 ERA ball with 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, a 49.7 percent ground-ball rate and near-identical marks in FIP (3.53) and xFIP (3.55). He wasn’t ranked among baseball’s elite prospects, but he was a strong Triple-A performer with a decent draft pedigree who looked ready for a big league rotation chance.

The 2017 Nationals, though, had Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark in their top four rotation spots. Ross had posted a 3.52 ERA and 3.46 FIP in 35 games across the two preceding seasons. With no immediate room in the rotation, Voth headed to the minors and looked like he’d be the first line of defense in the event of an injury. But when Ross went down with a torn UCL, Voth was in the midst of a catastrophically bad season in Syracuse. Through his first 13 starts, he’d pitched to a ghastly 6.38 ERA before going down with an injury himself. He never recovered his footing upon returning and finished the season with a 5.94 ERA. He rebounded with respectable showings in Triple-A in 2018-19, but he never appeared to recapture that 2016 form… until he got his first extended run in the big leagues last year.

In 43 2/3 frames last season, Voth worked to a 3.30 ERA with 44 strikeouts against 11 unintentional walks. His 92.8 mph average fastball was up 1.4 mph over the velocity he’d shown in a briefer 2018 cup of coffee, and Voth leaned heavily on a wipeout curveball to complement that improved heater. Voth induced chases outside the zone at a healthy 31 percent clip and recorded a 12.7 percent swinging-strike rate. His curve, which sits in the 90th percentile among MLB hooks in terms of spin rate, came with a gaudy 20.9 percent whiff rate. Opponents hit .176/.222/.265 when they put the pitch in play, and the .207/.295/.424 slash against Voth’s fastball wasn’t much better.

Not only was Voth adept at creating swings and misses — he also induced plenty of hapless contact. His 29.2 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate, per Statcast, was the 41st-best mark of the 558 pitchers who had 50-plus balls put into play against them last year. Opponents hit 47 fly-balls against Voth in 2019, and 10 of them were infield flies — effectively automatic outs. Voth’s .276 xwOBA ranked 55th in the game (min. 150 plate appearances against), placing him directly alongside the likes of Luis Castillo (.277), Walker Buehler (.275) and Chris Paddack (.275). That’s pretty nice company for a 27-year-old rookie-eligible hurler to keep after posting a combined ERA over 4.00 in the prior three Triple-A seasons.

Voth was off to a fine start this spring prior to the shutdown, tossing seven innings and allowing just one run with six strikeouts and one walk allowed. He obviously needs to prove that he’s capable of sustaining this type of output over a sample greater than last year’s eight starts (and one relief outing), but Voth showed the type of promise in 2019 that his chief rotation competitor, Ross, hasn’t flashed since prior to Tommy John surgery. That’s not to disparage Ross, who was very clearly on a fast-rising upward trajectory prior to getting injured and could yet recapture some of that form. But if the Nats were to choose one starter to plug into the rotation based on recent performance, Voth’s 2019 had the makings of not just a serviceable fifth starter but perhaps yet another high-quality arm on which the club can lean.

That’s certainly the hope for the Nationals organization, as an affordable rotation cog to slot alongside the massive salaries of their top three starters would certainly help with long-term payroll flexibility. (Sanchez is controllable for 2021 via club option.) Voth has yet to accrue even a full year of service, meaning he’s controlled all the way through 2025 and won’t even reach arbitration until the 2022-23 offseason.

Both Voth and Ross are out of minor league options, so they’ll almost certainly both make the roster if play is able to resume in 2020. And with a shortened season likely to feature fewer off-days and plenty of doubleheaders, perhaps they’ll each be afforded some opportunities to start games. If you’re taking a longer-term look at the Nationals’ starting staff or scouring the NL for breakout candidates, though, Voth’s strong showing in 2019 has placed him squarely in the mix.

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