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MLBTR Originals

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2023

By Mark Polishuk | December 25, 2023 at 9:54am CDT

There’s still plenty of time left in the offseason for teams to check items off their winter to-do lists, but with the spirit of holiday shopping in the air, let’s take a look at what baseball’s teams have already done to fix their roster’s weakest links from last season.  Using Baseball Reference’s list of how each team performed (as per bWAR) by position in 2023, let’s start with the 15 National League clubs….

Braves (Pinch-hitting, 0.3 bWAR): We’ll start with a team without many weak points, as the Braves amassed 104 wins thanks mostly to one of the best offensive lineups in baseball history.  Atlanta’s everyday players were so good and so durable that the bench didn’t get much of a chance to even hit the field, even as late-game subs.  As to how the bench depth might improve, Vaughn Grissom is expected to take on a larger role, and David Fletcher was acquired from the Angels as a backup infield upgrade over Nicky Lopez.

Brewers (First base, 0.4 bWAR): Carlos Santana is a free agent, Rowdy Tellez was non-tendered, and Mark Canha was traded to the Tigers as the Brew Crew might more or less completely reshuffle their first base mix.  GM Matt Arnold did hint that Santana could return and highly-touted prospect Tyler Black could factor at either corner infield position, but for now, first base remains somewhat in flux.  Jake Bauers was acquired from the Yankees and currently projects to work with Owen Miller in a platoon at the cold corner.

Cardinals (Pinch-hitting, 0.2 bWAR): St. Louis’ rotation problems have been well-documented, and their 4.1 rotation bWAR ranked 28th of 30 teams.  However, pinch-hitting was technically the Cardinals’ weakest point by pure bWAR metrics, and this area might just improve with better results from the team’s in-house options.  On paper, the Cards have plenty of versatile position-player depth, though they need to figure out which members of this group will be lineup regulars or perhaps off the team altogether.

Cubs (First base, 0.4 bWAR): Even with Cody Bellinger getting a big chunk of the playing time at first base, he hit only .267/.310/.467 over 200 plate appearances as a first baseman, in contrast to his red-hot .323/.381/.548 slash line in 339 PA as a center fielder.  A Matt Mervis/Patrick Wisdom/Christopher Morel combination is currently in place at the cold corner, yet it doesn’t feel like the Cubs are going to just stand pat the position.  Wrigleyville has been linked to such trade and free agent targets as Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, and Rhys Hoskins, plus a reunion with Bellinger can’t yet be ruled out.

Diamondbacks (Third base, 0.0 bWAR): The NL champions only got replacement-level production at the hot corner last year, but Arizona has already made a big move by adding Eugenio Suarez in a trade with the Mariners.  It’s a possible short-term fix since 2024 is the last guaranteed year of Suarez’s contract, though he should provide the D’Backs with some extra power while the team gets some more time to evaluate Jordan Lawlar’s readiness at shortstop (which could shift Gerardo Perdomo to third base in the future).

Dodgers (Pinch-hitting, 1.3 bWAR): Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers’ “weakest position” is still pretty respectable.  The return of Gavin Lux and the acquisition of Manuel Margot should raise the talent floor on the roster in terms of bench depth, as younger players like Miguel Vargas or Michael Busch could contribute in backup or part-time roles, rather than being relied on (as Vargas was last season) for a high-pressure starting role.  The left field position also generated 1.4 bWAR in 2023, and Los Angeles hopes that the addition of Margot can help on that front, plus a return to form for Chris Taylor would help a ton.

Giants (Shortstop, -1.3 bWAR): Longtime shortstop Brendan Crawford battled injuries all season long and wasn’t very productive when he was on the field, leaving the Giants short-handed at one of the most important positions on the diamond.  Top prospect Marco Luciano made his MLB debut last season and will get a longer look in 2024, but San Francisco is also looking around for shortstop help, perhaps just as a one-year stopgap to help Luciano ease into the big leagues.

Marlins (Catcher, -0.6 bWAR): Jacob Stallings wasn’t tendered a contract, and Christian Bethancourt was acquired from the Guardians as president of baseball operations Peter Bendix picked up another of his former players from the Rays.  The Bethancourt/Nick Fortes tandem is at least a defensively-stout pairing behind the plate, though Miami isn’t done in exploring the market for more catching help, and former Cardinal Andrew Knizner is reportedly of interest.

Mets (Third base, -1.2 bWAR): No team got less from the hot corner than the Amazins, but New York’s initial plan for the offseason was to keep rolling with younger players like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, or Mark Vientos.  However, Mauricio will now miss most or all of the season due to a torn ACL, reducing the options to Baty, Vientos, or utilityman Joey Wendle.  Justin Turner is reportedly a player of interest for the Mets, which could fit since Turner would also get a lot of time as a DH, allowing for the youngsters to get action at the third base spot.  If not Turner, some other veteran infield depth option could be obtained, yet the Mets want to give their top prospects some time since 2024 is looking like something of an evaluation year for the team.

Nationals (Designated hitter, 0.7 bWAR): Joey Meneses got the bulk of DH at-bats in 2023, and he couldn’t keep up the magic of his surprising 2022 breakout, hitting only .275/.321/.401 in his second year in the majors.  Meneses could get more time at first base now that Dominic Smith has been non-tendered, and Washington also brought in Juan Yepez and Lewin Diaz on minor league deals.  In short, both the DH and first base spots are basically open-call auditions at this point, as the Nationals probably aren’t likely to acquire a longer-term answer for either position while the team is still rebuilding.  The designated hitter role might not be addressed directly, as the Nats might end up cycling several players through the position.

Padres (First base/pinch-hitting, 0.5 bWAR): San Diego’s crowded infield picture resulted in Jake Cronenworth getting most of the first base opportunity, and he struggled after posting some very solid numbers from 2020-22.  Cronenworth is still the favorite for the position at this point, and his big contract makes it likely that he’ll still be on the roster next year even though Cronenworth’s name has surfaced in some trade talks.  Manny Machado will be used as a DH early in the season until he fully recovers from his elbow surgery, which somewhat complicates any plans San Diego might have in obtaining a slugging first base/DH type, yet such a player might still be a wise addition if the Padres feel confident Machado won’t need too much time to get fully healthy.  As much as the Padres’ offseason has been defined to date by payroll cuts, their recent signing of reliever Yuki Matsui indicates that the team is still planning to contend, and getting another big bat in the lineup seems like a must.

Phillies (Third base, 0.4 bWAR): Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa mostly split the third base duties in 2023, as Bohm saw a lot of time at first base with Rhys Hoskins out and until Bryce Harper was ready to take over as the regular first baseman.  Harper will be sticking at first base in 2024, so Bohm will be back as the full-time third baseman.  The former top prospect has been roughly a league-average hitter in his four MLB seasons and his glovework at third base still garners mixed reviews, so if the Phillies did want to make a bigger move to their everyday core, Bohm might be a candidate to be the odd man out.  That said, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has indicated that the Phils are more or less done with their top-tier winter shopping.

Pirates (Catcher/shortstop, -0.9 bWAR): The answer is the same at both positions for the Bucs — get full and healthy seasons from two of their best young players.  Oneil Cruz missed almost the entire season due to ankle surgery, while Henry Davis made his MLB debut but barely played any catcher, mostly seeing time as a right fielder instead.  Unfortunately, another top catching prospect in Endy Rodriguez will miss the entire season due to UCL surgery, so Davis now looks to be the top choice behind the plate unless the Pirates prefer to use Jason Delay and Ali Sanchez while Davis gets more acclimated to the position.

Reds (Right field/DH/Pinch-hitting, 0.7 bWAR): Cincinnati had a three-way tie in the “weakest position” race, and the answer to all three positions might be internal improvements.  Or, at least a shuffle caused by the signing of Jeimer Candelario, which will further crowd the infield and push Spencer Steer into a clear left field role.  This will in turn make Will Benson and Jake Fraley into the right field platoon, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand or Jonathan India might now be in line for DH duty now that the Reds have parted ways with Joey Votto.  There are plenty of moving parts here for the Reds, not to mention the fact that Cincinnati might still move one of their infielders in a trade for pitching.

Rockies (First base/second base, -0.6 bWAR): Colorado hopes to have Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers healthy, which would automatically make things better at the two lackluster infield positions.  It’s been a pretty quiet winter to date for the Rockies, as their limited transactions to date have understandably been focused on addding pitching.  Colorado only received 0.6 bWAR from its starting pitchers in 2023, the lowest mark in baseball.

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MLBTR Originals

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2023-24 MLB Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | December 24, 2023 at 1:00pm CDT

The following players are currently free agents.  Each player’s 2024 age is in parentheses.  The cutoff for this list is typically 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors in 2023.

For a free agent list that can be filtered to signed or unsigned players, position, age, handedness, and much more, check out our MLB Contract Tracker.  The Contract Tracker is only available to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

Updated 3-27-24

Catchers

Manny Piña (37)

First Basemen

Brandon Belt (36)
Wil Myers (33)
Darin Ruf (37)
Donovan Solano (36)

Second Basemen

Hanser Alberto (31)
Jonathan Schoop (32)
Jean Segura (34)
Donovan Solano (36)

Shortstops

Adalberto Mondesi (28)

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria (38)
Jean Segura (34)

Left Fielders

Corey Dickerson (35)
Austin Meadows (29)
Tommy Pham (36)
AJ Pollock (36)
Raimel Tapia (30)

Center Fielders

None

Right Fielders

Wil Myers (33)

Designated Hitters

Kyle Lewis (28)
Austin Meadows (29)

Starting Pitchers

Matthew Boyd (33)
Mike Clevinger (33)
Johnny Cueto (38)
Zack Greinke (40)
Rich Hill (44)
Noah Syndergaard (31)
Julio Urias (27)
Vince Velasquez (32)

Right-Handed Relievers

Anthony Bass (36)
Brad Boxberger (36)
Codi Heuer (27)
Mark Melancon (39)
Zach Neal (35)
Alex Reyes (29)
Nick Wittgren (33)

Left-Handed Relievers

Jarlin Garcia (31)
Brad Hand (34)
Aaron Loup (36)

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2023-24 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals

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Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot

By Tim Dierkes | December 24, 2023 at 10:30am CDT

Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before retiring in July 2021. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong southern New Jersey resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Once again, Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot. I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers. Here’s Marc…

This was an extremely difficult baseball Hall of Fame ballot because it causes debate over those who prioritize longevity over others who place emphasis on shorter-term excellence.
Before going into the ballot, a little bit about the philosophy of this voter.

First off, I won’t criticize anybody’s ballot. There are many different opinions on what a Hall of Fame player should be and that is fine.

As stated last year at MLBtraderumors.com and in also in 2021, I have not voted for those associated with steroids.

As one can see from the comments sections, there are many of you who have disagreed and that’s fine. I’m not here to try to convince anybody to change his or her mind. This is just the way I feel, how the steroid era put such a stain on the game.

I have also not voted for Carlos Beltran, who admittedly was the mastermind of the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. Those actions cost him his job as a manager and for now, this vote.
Again, I can see people who think this is crazy to keep such an accomplished player off the ballot. I’m not here to attempt to convince anybody either way, just to say this is what went into my voting.

I don’t think all the Astros should be punished, but that’s another story for another day.

Now, for the ballot.

There are two holdovers who I voted for last year and we will start there.

Todd Helton

Helton, now in his sixth year on the ballot, is close to the finish line. He received 72.2% of the votes. Just a refresher, a player needs 75% of the votes. For those who didn’t see last year’s story, we’ll reiterate his case.

The negative perception is that he was a product of playing his entire career at Coors Field. The splits were significant home and away.

Yet his .287/.386/.469 slash line on the road was impressive, but it did pale in comparison to his numbers at Coors – .345/441/.607.

His career line was .316/414/.539.

While the sabermetrics community may scoff at batting average, it takes a lot to hit .300 for a season, let alone a career. Last season just nine players with the required 502 plate appearance hit .300.

In 2000, Helton won a batting title hitting .372.

Here were his splits that season – home: .391/.484/.758. Away: .353/.441/633.

He was a first baseman who wasn’t known for his power, but he still hit 369 home runs and had 1,406 RBI, while playing all 17 seasons for the Rockies.

Helton was a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a three-time Gold Glove recipient.

It’s more than enough to put him on this ballot.

Billy Wagner

Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot and keeps moving closer. (How a person fares on other ballots doesn’t impact this vote, but it is good to note how close or far somebody is from being elected).

Wagner last year earned 68.1% of the votes.

The two knocks against Wagner are his low innings total and his postseason struggles.

Both are valid points.

Wagner pitched just 903 innings. His postseason production, even though it only consisted of 11 1/3 innings over 14 appearances, was poor to say the least. He had a 10.03 ERA, although Wagne did convert all three save opportunities.

His positives outweigh the negatives.

In looking for a HOF player, I like to see excellence. Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum of 750 innings pitched) is the best in MLB history.

Wagner had 422 saves, and an impressive save percentage (86%). His career 2.31 ERA and 187 ERA+ are second best among HOF relievers. Only Mariano Rivera (2.21 ERA, and 205 ERA+) is better in both categories.

The newcomers

Adrian Beltre

There won’t be much convincing to do here. Beltre’s career 93.5 rWAR is surpassed by just two HOF third basemen – Mike Schmidt (106.8) and Eddie Matthews (96.0).

Here were Beltre’s career numbers – .286/339/.480 for his career with 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1707 RBI and a 116 OPS+. One thing that is interesting is that he was just a four-time All-Star. He won five Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers and was a Top 10 MVP finisher six times.

The only question with Beltre is whether he will be a unanimous choice.

Joe Mauer

Here is where the debate starts. The knock against Mauer is that while he was an excellent catcher, he only played the position for a decade. Due to concussions from catching, he moved to first base for the final five seasons. He caught 70 or more games eight times. In total he caught 921 games, making 885 starts as a catcher.

In those 10 seasons he hit .323/405/.469 with a 135 OPS+.

When somebody does something historical, the feeling here is that it should add to his HOF candidacy. Mauer is the only catcher to win three batting titles, in 2006, 2008 and 2009. In those three years, he caught 120, 139 and 109 games respectively. He batted .347 in 2006, .328 in 2008 and .365 in 2009.

During those first 10 seasons, he was a six-time All-Star, won an MVP (in 2009) and finished in the Top 10 four times. Mauer also earned five Silver Slugger awards and three Gold Gloves.

Is that enough production in a decade of work?

Due to the demands of the position, we think so.

Plus, how much did the toll of catching and the injuries contribute to the decline after he switched positions?

His final five seasons were well below HOF worthy – .278/.359/.388 with a 105 OPS+. Never a big home run hitter, he hit 38 of his career 143 home runs in the final five seasons.

Still, even with the decline, here are his career statistics – .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+.

Only eight HOF catchers have a higher career rWAR than Mauer (55.2).

He certainly did enough in his years as a catcher to make this ballot.

Chase Utley

The longevity issue is what hurts Utley. Utley had a five-year stretch that was definitely HOF standard. From 2005-2009, he hit .301/.388/535 and averaged 29.2 home runs. 110.6 runs, 101.4 RBI, 151 games and 675 plate appearances. His fWAR average for those five years was an astonishing 7.7.

During this span Utley earned four of his six All-Star appearances.

The Phillies made the playoffs the final three of those seasons, winning the World Series in 2008 and losing to the NY Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Utley hit five home runs in the 2009 series, which is tied for the most in MLB history. Reggie Jackson in 1977 and George Springer in 2017 also hit five.

He had other strong seasons, but none to match this five-year average.

His career numbers, especially for a second baseman were strong – .275/.358/.465 and a 117 OPS+. He had 1,103 runs and 1,025 RBI. Will the fact that he had fewer than 2,000 hits (1,885) hurt Utley?

Probably in the eyes of some, but he ended up being a six-time All-Star and earning four Silver Slugger Awards.

Only 10 HOF second basemen have a higher rWAR than Utley (64.5). Only four HOF second basemen have more home runs than Utley (259).

Injuries caught up to Utley, but he was more than a five-year wonder. Even after 2009, he would make two other All-Star teams and from 2010-2014 had an average OPS+ of 116.

Utley played the game hard, was a quiet leader of during the greatest run in Phillies history when they qualified for the playoffs five consecutive seasons 2007-2011.

It is understandable for those who feel he didn’t perform at a top level long enough, but he did enough to get on this ballot.

David Wright

New York Mets third baseman David Wright was on a HOF trajectory before spinal stenosis ended his career. Wright’s last full-time year was his age-31 season in 2014.

His counting stats, which included 1,777 career hits and 242 home runs, will be used against him, but Wright had an impressive nine-year peak, where he earned seven All-Star berths. The seven all-star games matched last year’s HOF inductee Scott Rolen.

From 2005-2013, Wright hit .302/.384./.505 with a 138 OPS+. Wright averaged 23 home runs, 90 runs and 93 RBI. During this time, he won two Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting four times. After this period, he would play just one more full season, 2014 when the decline began.

His final career numbers were .296/376/.491 and a 133 OPS+. Only seven HOF third baseman have a higher OPS+ than Wright.

Should Wright be penalized for suffering what turned out to be a career-ending injury, that ended his full-time status after his age 31 season?

It can be argued that durability is part of being a HOF player and that is a good case, but Wright was the face of the franchise, a perennial All-Star and a strong two-way performer.

We can see both sides of this argument, just as we can for Utley and to a degree Mauer, but these players did enough to make it onto this ballot, even if their excellence was shorter than some would like.

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MLBTR Originals Uncategorized

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Braxton Garrett’s Rotation Emergence

By Anthony Franco | December 24, 2023 at 8:00am CDT

Braxton Garrett did not begin the 2023 season in the Marlins’ rotation. His first appearance was a three-inning relief outing on April 1. The Fish optioned him two days later but recalled him within a day as Johnny Cueto went on the injured list.

Cueto’s injury opened a spot for Garrett to assume the #5 starting job behind Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. The left-hander was a quality depth option, a former #7 overall pick who had turned in a 3.58 ERA over 17 starts in 2022. That the Marlins nevertheless brought in Cueto and began with Garrett sixth on the depth chart suggests the front office had trepidation about his ability to repeat those results.

Once injury pushed Garrett back into the starting mix, he didn’t look back. The 26-year-old made 30 starts from that point forward, ultimately logging 159 2/3 innings. He finished third on the team in workload while allowing 3.66 earned runs per nine. That came with above-average peripherals across the board. Garrett punched out a solid 23.7% of batters faced while keeping the ball on the ground nearly half the time. He walked only 4.4% of opposing hitters, showcasing the plus control which evaluators had praised during his time as a prospect.

It’s not an overpowering profile. He averaged just 90.5 MPH with the sinker that serves as his primary offering. Despite the pedestrian velocity, Garrett has shown the ability to miss bats with his assortment of secondary pitches. He generated above-average whiff rates on each of his slider, cutter and changeup. The well-rounded arsenal allowed him to avoid significant platoon issues. Garrett’s strikeout and walk profile was better than average regardless of the opponent’s handedness. Right-handed hitters made more authoritative contact than southpaws, but neither side produced much overall.

Garrett’s development into a mid-rotation arm has taken on extra importance given other setbacks in the starting staff. Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery in October, knocking him out of the mix for 2024. Rogers injured his left biceps and right (non-throwing shoulder), limiting him to four starts. Cabrera, a former top pitching prospect, has shown promising stuff but continues to issue plenty of free passes. The Cueto signing didn’t work.

Miami’s rotation was productive overall. Luzardo also took a step forward, while 20-year-old Eury Pérez posted a 3.15 ERA over 19 starts as a rookie. That the Fish turned to Garrett in the second game of their Wild Card series with the Phillies still hints at both the strength of his ’23 campaign and some of the hits Miami took above him on the season-opening depth chart.

Garrett has just under two years of major league service. He’ll surely qualify for early arbitration next offseason as a Super Two player but remains under club control for five additional seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote in late November the Fish were receiving trade interest in their young starters but were likely to consider Garrett off limits. There’s no question of his place in the rotation heading into 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Braxton Garrett

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The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

By Anthony Franco | December 18, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.
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The Challenge Of Trading Jake Cronenworth

By Anthony Franco | December 14, 2023 at 12:25pm CDT

After the Scott Barlow and Juan Soto/Trent Grisham trades, Roster Resource projects the Padres payroll for the 2024 season in the $154MM range. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, about $28MM shy of next year’s lowest threshold.

San Diego now has some space to add, but their series of free agent losses and trade departures have created a number of holes. With a need for at least one starting pitcher, a back-end reliever and likely multiple outfielders, the front office could continue looking for ways to create spending room. One path the front office is seemingly pursuing: moving some of the money owed to Jake Cronenworth.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last week that Cronenworth had emerged as a trade candidate. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote over the weekend the Padres were open to discussions on the fifth-year infielder. That’s to be expected, as Cronenworth is coming off the worst season of his career.

That’s not ideal for a player entering the first season of a seven-year contract. Last spring, San Diego signed Cronenworth to an $80MM extension covering the 2024-30 campaigns. It was an odd decision at the time, as the Padres already had arbitration control through his age-32 season. It looks worse in hindsight after his 2023 performance.

Cronenworth hit .229/.312/.378 with 10 home runs through 522 plate appearances. He had the lowest mark of his career in all three slash stats. That’d be more tolerable at his natural second base position, but the Friars also kicked him primarily to first base after signing Xander Bogaerts to keep Ha-Seong Kim at the keystone. Cronenworth’s hit-over-power approach isn’t a great fit at first base, where most teams receive far more offensive productivity. Among 25 primary first baseman to reach 500 plate appearances, Cronenworth ranked 23rd in both on-base percentage and slugging. His season finished in late August when he fractured his right wrist.

The Padres certainly expect better than that in 2024. Going into last season, the Michigan product had a much superior .256/.338/.431 career batting line. Yet he has also trended downwards offensively in each season since his rookie year. With Kim and Bogaerts likely to again occupy the middle infield, Cronenworth isn’t a great fit for the San Diego roster. Offloading a portion of his contract and bringing in a more traditional slugging first baseman could mollify some of their problems getting production from the bottom half of the lineup.

San Diego wouldn’t find a taker for the entire contract. Aside from a $2MM signing bonus, Cronenworth’s extension hasn’t yet kicked in. Were he a free agent this offseason, he would not receive seven years or $78MM.

For reference, Jeimer Candelario was on the open market this winter. He’s a few weeks older than Cronenworth, has nearly identical offensive production over the past four seasons, and is coming off a much better ’23 campaign (.251/.336/.471 with 22 homers). Candelario signed a three-year pact that guaranteed $45MM. Even with Cronenworth having a slight defensive edge based on his ability to play an above-average second base, he likely wouldn’t have beaten Candelario money.

The Padres owe Cronenworth a $7MM salary for next season, followed by $11MM in 2025. He’s due $12MM annually between 2026-30, covering his age 32-36 campaigns. If the Friars were simply prioritizing shedding next year’s money, they’d likely find a trade partner. Paying $7MM for Cronenworth in ’24 is good value, particularly if a team can move him back to second base. The Padres would have to agree to kicking in some money beyond the next season or two in order to reduce the longer-term downside for an acquiring team.

Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson are the top open market options. Neither is demonstrably better than Cronenworth. There are other trade possibilities (e.g. Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India) but teams looking for second base help could have to turn to the trade market.

The Royals project to turn the position back to Michael Massey, who hit .229/.274/.381 a season ago. K.C. has a decent amount of long-term payroll room and generally prefers hit-over-power, athletic players who align with their spacious home park. The Red Sox had a revolving door at second base last season, receiving a .240/.286/.376 line overall. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged last week the Sox were likely to trade for a second baseman, although he called a right-handed hitter an ideal pickup.

Seattle could look to improve upon Josh Rojas. Cronenworth would align with their goal of adding more contact if they view him as reasonable buy-low target. The Angels and Blue Jays may add an infielder, although their respective in-house options might be productive enough they don’t see Cronenworth as a clear upgrade.

Teams like the Brewers (Brice Turang), Rockies (Brendan Rodgers) and Nationals (Luis García) have young players they’ll probably try to give one more opportunity. The White Sox have targeted stopgap types like Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong. The Pirates seem unlikely to take on notable money on a seven-year commitment. The Tigers have short-term uncertainty at second base but presumably won’t want to block prospects like Colt Keith and Jace Jung.

In the absence of many clear trade partners, the Padres front office will have to determine how motivated they are to shed a portion of the contract. While selling low on Cronenworth less than 12 months after extending him isn’t ideal, the Soto trade made clear they’re open to ways to reshape the roster as they try to remain competitive while cutting spending.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Poll: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2023 at 10:06am CDT

With Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, one of the next big questions of the offseason is what awaits NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The three-time defending Sawamura Award winner as Japan’s top pitcher is widely regarded as the best remaining free agent. Hitting the open market at a nearly unprecedented age of 25, he is generally viewed as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Yamamoto is coming off a season in which he turned in a 1.21 ERA across 164 innings. He fanned nearly 27% of opposing hitters while issuing walks at a meager 4.4% clip. It was arguably the best season in an illustrious NPB career that has seen the 5’10” righty post a 1.82 ERA in just under 900 innings at baseball’s second-highest level.

The Athletic’s Eno Sarris examined Yamamoto’s repertoire on a pitch-by-pitch basis yesterday. Sarris raved about Yamamoto’s fastball, split, curveball combination and praised the strong command he showed when pitching in the World Baseball Classic last spring. He concurred that Yamamoto projects as a top-flight starter, an assessment shared by evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke at the start of the offseason.

MLBTR predicted Yamamoto would receive a nine-year, $225MM guarantee. Recent indications are that he’ll surpass that mark. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote last week that there’s growing belief within the industry that an MLB team’s expenditure on Yamamoto will top $300MM.

Passan’s suggestion of a $300MM+ investment includes the posting fee which an MLB team would owe to the Orix Buffaloes. (MLBTR’s contract prediction was separate from the posting fee.) That’s calculated as 20% of a contract’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of any further spending. A $275MM guarantee for Yamamoto, for example, would come with a $43.125MM posting sum that’d push the overall investment by the MLB club to $318.125MM.

As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324MM deal with the Yankees is the only $300MM+ contract for a one-way pitcher in MLB history. There’s a chance Yamamoto becomes the second pitcher to cross that threshold and at least an outside shot that he beats Cole’s guarantee to establish a new high-water mark.

It doesn’t hurt to have essentially every large-market franchise enamored with his upside. Yamamoto has seemingly been the top target for the Mets all offseason. He’s now the #1 priority for the Yankees and Dodgers after their respective splashes for Soto and Ohtani. The Giants and Blue Jays missed on Soto and Ohtani and are still motivated to make significant splashes. San Francisco made one such move yesterday by signing star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year deal, but even after that hefty expenditure the Giants should still have the payroll and luxury-tax space to accommodate Yamamoto.

Yamamoto hosted Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns in Japan last week. The pitcher is now on a North American tour of his own. He reportedly visited the Giants on Sunday and sat down with Yankee officials on Monday. He met with the Dodgers last night and is slated to meet with the Blue Jays and Red Sox later in the week. One or two others could still be involved.

The Buffaloes posted Yamamoto on November 20. That technically gives him until January 4 to sign, although the process isn’t expected to take that long. Both Passan and Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested last week the touted pitcher is likely to sign well before his posting window closes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he has chosen his MLB team before Christmas.

How does the MLBTR readership anticipate Yamamoto’s bidding playing out? Where will he land and how lofty a guarantee will he secure?

 

 

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Looking For A Match In A Corbin Burnes Trade

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2023 at 3:29pm CDT

Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.

With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.

Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.

Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.

Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.

The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).

At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.

Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.

If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.

Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.

Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…

Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.

Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.

Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).

D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.

Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.

Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.

Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.

Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.

Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.

Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.

Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.

Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.

—

Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.

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The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade

By Anthony Franco | November 29, 2023 at 2:29pm CDT

There’s no bigger name on the trade front than Juan Soto. The superstar outfielder topped MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates a few weeks ago. He’s one season from free agency on a Padres team that is reportedly planning to cut payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a record $33MM salary for his final season of arbitration, which would make him the highest-paid player on the roster.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made clear the organizational preference would be to sign Soto to an extension. That seems extremely unlikely. Soto declined a $440MM offer from the Nationals in the summer of 2022. The price tag should only be higher now that he’s a year and a half nearer to free agency. Neither San Diego nor anyone else should expect to keep Soto from the open market.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that a trade seems likely based on the Friars’ payroll and roster outlook. San Diego is down to Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as locks for a spot in the rotation. They could use a little more depth on the position player side. No move would create more short-term payroll room than a Soto trade.

It’s hard to envision the Padres dealing him within the NL West. San Diego isn’t rebuilding. A trade may be financially motivated but would also open room for reinvestment. The Friars aren’t likely to deal Soto to the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or Giants. The Rockies aren’t acquiring a star for one season.

What about the other 25 teams? Which ones make the most sense?

Note: All payroll projections courtesy of Roster Resource. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

Best Fits

  • Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins has spoken of a desire to add multiple hitters. They’re in the mix on Shohei Ohtani but could turn to the trade market if the two-way star signs elsewhere. The Jays could slide Daulton Varsho to center field to plug Soto into left. They’re around $24MM shy of next year’s base luxury tax threshold. Acquiring Soto would push them into CBT territory, which they were willing to do this past season.
  • Cubs: The Cubs are also in on Ohtani. Signing the defending AL MVP would take them out of the mix for Soto. If they don’t get Ohtani, taking a swing for Soto to rotate through the corner outfield and DH spots alongside Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ makes sense. Chicago is a borderline playoff team as things stand. They project $50MM below the tax threshold. They’re within $7MM of this year’s Opening Day payroll but around $25MM south of their franchise-high mark from 2019.
  • Mariners: Seattle doesn’t seem as involved on Ohtani as some of the other teams in this tier. Perhaps that’s an indicator they’re not interested in any player on a massive salary, as they project around $4MM below this year’s season-opening spending level. They’re around $25MM away from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll, though, and one season of Soto wouldn’t come with the kind of long-term downside from which Seattle has shied away in free agency. The Mariners need offense to push them over the top and could upgrade in either corner outfield spot, where Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzone project as the top internal options.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners have a strong starting outfield of Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis García. Primary DH Mitch Garver reached free agency, opening a spot in the middle of the lineup. It’s probably too soon to count on last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford, who only has 17 games of upper minors experience. Adding Soto to an already stellar offense for a season as they go for a repeat makes plenty of sense. They already project above this year’s Opening Day payroll but figure to push spending higher on the heels of a championship. Texas projects around $18MM south of the lowest luxury tax threshold; they could add Soto without paying especially onerous penalties.
  • Red Sox: DH Justin Turner hit free agency. Right fielder Alex Verdugo is an annual offseason trade candidate. A corner outfield tandem of Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida isn’t disastrous, but it’s certainly not going to stand in the way of a player like Soto. Coming off consecutive 78-84 seasons, perhaps the Sox don’t feel they’re perfectly positioned to strike for this kind of rental player. They’re around $52MM shy of the base luxury threshold, though, and acquiring Soto would put them right back in the hunt in the AL East.
  • Yankees: GM Brian Cashman is openly seeking multiple outfielders, ideally ones who hit from the left side. The Yankees project for a payroll that sits around $40MM south of their 2023 mark. A Soto acquisition would bring them to the border of the third tier of luxury tax penalization. That’d be a concern for many teams but is a line the Yankees shouldn’t have any qualms about passing. As long as New York considers itself a legitimate contender in 2024 — adding Soto would make that a lot more realistic — there aren’t many cleaner fits.

Longer Shots

  • Angels: The Halos have made clear they’re not going to rebuild even if Ohtani walks. They have been aggressive in trading for players deep into their arbitration seasons and would have the payroll capacity to accommodate Soto’s salary if they don’t retain Ohtani. They have stripped down the farm system in ill-fated moves to increase their odds of competing in the short term, however. Even if owner Arte Moreno wants to add a big name to compensate for a potential Ohtani departure, acquiring Soto seems too short-sighted.
  • Braves: Atlanta has an opening in left field after declining their option on Eddie Rosario. The Braves already project for a franchise-record payroll and have an elite lineup despite the left field question. Bringing in a starting pitcher feels like the safer bet.
  • Mets: Few teams have as bleak a corner outfield picture as the Mets. Starling Marte had a terrible season. DJ Stewart played well down the stretch, but he’s a 30-year-old who wasn’t on a 40-man roster as recently as this past July. They’re going to bring in some kind of outfield help. Trading for Soto would be a bold play for a team that has hinted at 2025 as its more realistic contention window coming off a 75-87 season. They could look for more of a stopgap acquisition and make a bigger run at Soto when he hits free agency next November.
  • Orioles: Pitching is the bigger concern for Baltimore, who have Austin Hays, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle in the corner outfield/DH mix. The O’s still have an elite farm system that ostensibly opens the possibility for a luxury buy, particularly if they offloaded Santander’s $12.7MM projected salary (either as a lesser piece of a Soto return or in a separate trade). This isn’t the kind of move the O’s have made under GM Mike Elias, however.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper handling the combination of first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. They could kick Schwarber to a full-time DH role and install Soto in the corner opposite Castellanos to flank Brandon Marsh in center field. The offense isn’t necessarily a need for the Phils, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never shied away from the chance to bring in a star. This might be an easier fit if the Phils could first offload Castellanos in a separate trade (although he wouldn’t hold any appeal to San Diego as part of a return for Soto).

Payroll Questions

  • Astros
  • Brewers
  • Guardians
  • Marlins
  • Pirates
  • Rays
  • Twins

While a $33MM salary is still well below the market value for one year of Soto’s services, none of these teams is likely to take it on. Milwaukee, Cleveland, Miami, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay are among the lower spenders in MLB. Houston arguably has a need in left field, but GM Dana Brown has downplayed their desire for outfield help and suggested they’re operating without a ton of payroll room. Minnesota is scaling back payroll and already right around their reported target area.

Other Priorities

  • Cardinals
  • Reds
  • Tigers

Soto would obviously make any team better. Yet no one in this group has the kind of urgent need for corner outfield help that make them likely to offer enough young talent to beat what more desperate teams could put on the table.

The Cardinals could ostensibly trade Tyler O’Neill and target Soto to play the corner outfield alongside Jordan Walker. They’re already at last year’s spending level, though, and it’s debatable whether they’re good enough to push in to this extent for a rental. Cincinnati is focused on starting pitching and seems unlikely to meet the kind of asking price for Soto, whom they’d have no hope of re-signing next offseason. Detroit brought in Mark Canha this offseason to join Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter in the corner outfield/DH mix. They’re too fringy of a contender to make this kind of play.

Wrong Competitive Timeline

  • A’s
  • Nationals
  • Royals
  • White Sox

The A’s might be the only of these teams that is openly going into 2024 without any hope of competing. No one in this tier has a good enough roster to consider themselves one player away from contention, however. Parting with multiple high-end prospects for a rental doesn’t make sense, even if each of Washington, Kansas City and Chicago will probably make smaller moves of the “win-now” variety this winter.

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MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres Juan Soto

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Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Corbin Burnes?

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2023 at 5:27pm CDT

The Brewers have a ticking clock on their hands with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been excellent for them over the past four seasons but he’s now just one year away from free agency. They could have tried to sign him to an extension at some point but had not done so as of September of last year, per Burnes himself.

The pitcher recently expanded on the process in some comments with Fair Territory on November 17, as relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “That was never something that we got to,” Burnes said when asked about extension talks. “Obviously, coming off the shortened season in 2020, having my first good year after signing [for] ‘21, I think for them it was, ‘Hey, wait and see if this was a one-off year,’ or if they thought this was something we could explore long-term.”

Burnes then goes on to explain that his continued success inflated his earning power so much that he was out of their price range and they didn’t want to bother insulting him with a lowball offer. This brought the two sides to the impasse where they currently find themselves. “I think a couple of years ago, I was open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know that we’re a year away from free agency, and we want to see what the market can bring.”

As McCalvy lays out, that leaves the club with two distinct options. One is to hold onto Burnes and see what happens in 2024, which would still leave open the possibility of a midseason trade or receiving a compensation pick after extending a qualifying offer to Burnes. The other path is to trade him now.

The holding path certainly has its appeal. The club is the defending champion in the National League Central, after all. They will have to proceed without Brandon Woodruff, who was recently non-tendered in the wake of shoulder surgery. But he missed most of 2023 as well and the club still managed to thrive. Some other players also departed via free agency but the club could feasibly have a stronger outfield next year. Each of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Tyrone Taylor were held back by injuries and could perhaps contribute more next year, joining Christian Yelich and Joey Wiemer in a strong outfield mix.

Then there’s Jackson Chourio, one of the top prospects in the sport, who reached Triple-A in 2023 and could debut in 2024. The club and Chourio are reportedly discussing an extension, which could perhaps increase his chances of being a factor in 2024. That could then lead to an outfield surplus, which could allow the club to perhaps bolster their team while holding Burnes.

The club could stand to find some upgrades on the infield and in the back of the rotation, but they could have some money to do so. Roster Resource estimates next year’s payroll at $101MM right now. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, while they were at $132MM in 2022.

But the downside of the holding option is quite apparent with the example of Woodruff. The unfortunate reality with pitchers is that injury can quickly sap them of their value, both in terms of on-field contributions and trade value. If anything unfortunate were to develop with Burnes in 2024, the club could regret not cashing in when they had the chance.

By all accounts, the demand for starting pitching is high this winter and not every club is going to be jazzed about the idea of committing hundreds of millions of dollars over many years in order to upgrade their staff. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, far cheaper than what top free agent arms will get, while also having the ability to recoup a compensatory draft pick at year’s end. Some club with a position player surplus but pitching needs may be willing to give up MLB-ready pieces to get Burnes, allowing Milwaukee to perhaps upgrade on the infield.

But the trade path isn’t easy either. The club is already going to be without Woodruff, so flipping Burnes would further weaken a rotation that has been such a strength for the club. With Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer all free agents, a Milwaukee rotation without Burnes would consist of Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with options like Aaron Ashby, Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk and Robert Gasser also around. They could perhaps then use some of their funds to patch that over, but it’s obviously a better group with Burnes in it.

Looking at the broad picture, the division seems to be in a state of flux. The Cardinals are aggressively trying to put their miserable 2023 behind them, while the Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all coming out of their respective rebuilds at different speeds. With both Burnes and Willy Adames set for free agency a year from now, perhaps the Brewers should keep the gang together for one last heist, but doing so might hurt their chances of continuing to compete in 2025 and beyond.

What do you think? Should Burnes stay or go? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Milwaukee Brewers Corbin Burnes

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