Poll: Should The Pirates Trade A Catcher?
For a few years now, the Pirates have had a couple of catchers as two of their top prospects. Henry Davis was taken with the first overall pick in the 2021 draft and has been under the microscope ever since. Endy Rodríguez was acquired in the January 2021 three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to the Padres and was declared Pittsburgh’s top prospect by Baseball America going into 2023.
There’s now a third name in the mix as Joey Bart had his long-awaited breakout in 2024. Selected second overall by the Giants in 2018, he struggled to establish himself at the big league level in San Francisco and had exhausted his option years by the end of 2023. He held onto his roster spot until the end of spring training 2024 but was designated for assignment at that time, getting flipped to the Pirates for minor league righty Austin Strickland.
Bart missed some time due to injury this year but got into 80 games for the Bucs and hit 13 homers. He slashed .265/.337/.462 overall for a wRC+ of 121, indicating he was 21% better than league average. His defense wasn’t highly regarded but that kind of offense behind the plate is hard to come by and was especially valuable on a Pittsburgh team that found it difficult to score runs. Among catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, Bart’s 121 wRC+ was fourth behind the Contreras brothers and Iván Herrera. With the same plate appearance threshold, he led all Pirate hitters in that stat.
Now there is theoretically a logjam with the three guys, as most clubs only roster two catchers at a time. The designated hitter spot probably doesn’t help, with Andrew McCutchen likely to be in there. He’s technically heading into free agency now but he and the Pirates seem to have an agreement whereby they can keep reupping with each other until he’s ready to retire. He’s now 38 years old but was one of the club’s only good hitters in 2024. For guys with 250 plate appearances, only Bart, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and McCutchen were above average by wRC+.
Rodríguez debuted in 2023 and didn’t hit much, with a .220/.284/.328 batting line and 65 wRC+ in his first 204 plate appearances. However, his defense was universally praised and he has hit better in the minors. He has slashed .295/.383/.506 on the farm overall and .285/.362/.450 at the Triple-A level. In December of last year, he underwent surgery on the UCL and flexor tendon in his throwing elbow and missed the entire big league season in 2024. He started a rehab assignment in mid-September and played in a handful of minor league games, suggesting he should be good to go for 2025.
Davis has had a more infuriating career so far, as he has destroyed minor league pitching but struggled badly in the majors. In 377 major league plate appearances thus far, he has struck out in 30.2% of them and hit .191/.283/.307 for a wRC+ of 61. But since the start of 2023, he has a 13.7% walk rate and 21.5% strikeout rate in the minors, helping him produce a combined .302/.424/.550 line and 158 wRC+.
All of this will lead to some interesting decisions for the Bucs. Bart isn’t great defensively but is a big bat on a club that didn’t have many this year. Rodríguez has played some other positions but a big part of his appeal is his strong work behind the plate. Davis has also dabbled in playing the outfield but the offensive expectations are even higher at that position than at catcher, so moving him into the outfield mix would put even more pressure on his bat.
Davis and Rodríguez still have options, so it’s possible that the Pirates could keep all three, with two of them in the majors and one in Triple-A. But Rodríguez is already a solid defender by big league standards and has done plenty of hitting in the minors, making it fairly wasteful to have him back down there. Davis doesn’t have much left to prove on the farm with his big numbers there. Arguably, the best thing for him is to see more big league pitching and get accustomed to it.
Another path they could choose is trading one of these three. Doing so would sacrifice some depth but Jason Delay is also on the 40-man roster and is still optionable. But there are also arguments against trading each of the three.
Davis might feel expendable at the moment with his relatively weaker defense and the fact that he hasn’t put it together offensively just yet, but the path of Bart is a cautionary tale. The Giants would surely love a mulligan on letting him go and the Pirates are probably aware that they could end up on the other side of such a trade. Given that Davis was such a highly regarded prospect, it’s not hard to imagine them flipping him and quickly regretting it when they have to watch him have his breakout elsewhere.
It wouldn’t be an ideal time to trade Rodríguez either, as he’s coming off a completely lost season. With some health and a step forward at the plate, he could improve his value tremendously this year and down the line.
Selling high on Bart might be appealing because they grabbed him at such a low point and saw him take a big step forward. But as mentioned, the club had so few productive hitters in 2024 and subtracting one of them would be a risky ploy.
Though there’s potential downsides with these considerations, the Pirates might think about it anyway. They generally don’t spend a ton of money in free agency but need to upgrade the roster somehow. General manager Ben Cherington has had his job since November of 2019 and the club has been stuck below .500 since then. They were rebuilding for the first few years of his tenure but expectations have been raised with some flashes of winning baseball in the past two campaigns. Unfortunately, they finished with a 76-86 record both last year and this year, perhaps leading to a bit of desperation in getting over the hump in 2025.
It’s possible that the free agent catching market could work in their favor this winter. The best available backstops are guys like Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly and Kyle Higashioka. Jansen is coming off a nightmare season and is a big question mark right now. Higashioka is coming off a career year but will turn 35 in April, making it fair to wonder if he just peaked. Kelly has been inconsistent in his career and more okay than great even when at his best. The Cardinals will likely make Willson Contreras available on the trade market but he has a pricey contract and is about to turn 33 years old. Christian Vázquez is in a similar situation to Contreras as a pricey veteran but with the offense and defense flipped, as Vázquez is a glove-first guy and Contreras bat-first.
Several clubs could use help behind the plate, with the Rays, Padres, Nationals, Cubs, Reds, Phillies and Braves just some of the possibilities. All three of Pittsburgh’s catchers are cheap, with Davis and Rodríguez still in their pre-arb years and Bart just getting to arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bart for a modest $1.8MM salary in 2025, not much above next year’s $760K league minimum. Those affordable salaries would naturally appeal to clubs with budgetary or competitive balance tax concerns.
What do you think the Pirates should do with their many catching options? Have your say in the poll below!
Should the Pirates trade a catcher?
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No, keep them all. 26% (1,034)
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Yes, trade one, but I'm not sure which. 26% (1,014)
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Yes, trade Davis. 25% (993)
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Yes, trade Bart. 16% (632)
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Yes, trade Rodríguez. 6% (232)
Total votes: 3,905
Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
Despite a quiet offseason, the Guardians returned to contention in 2024. They won 92 games and the AL Central crown before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. As November approaches, two related questions loom large for this team: Will the surprising success of their rivals in Detroit and Kansas City convince the Guardians to do more this winter to defend their division title? Or will the potential loss of local media revenue lead to another slow offseason?
Guaranteed Contracts
- José Ramírez, 3B: $88MM through 2028
- Andrés Giménez, 2B: $96.86MM through 2029 ($23MM club option for 2030 with $2.5MM buyout)
- Myles Straw, CF: $13.8MM through 2026 ($8MM club option for 2027 with $1.75MM buyout and $8.5MM club option for ‘28 with a $500K buyout)
- Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $11.3MM through 2026 ($10MM club options for 2027 and ‘28 with $2MM buyout for ‘27 and $1MM buyout for ‘28)
- Trevor Stephan, RHP: $5.8MM through 2026 ($7.25MM club option for 2027 with $1.25MM buyout and $7.5 club option for ‘28 with no buyout)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Jean Segura, INF: $2MM buyout owed on $10MM club option for 2025
Total 2025 commitments: $45.17MM
Total future commitments: $225.26MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
- Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
- James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
- Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
- Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
- Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
- Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
- Ben Lively (2.133): $3.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Karinchak, McKenzie, Hentges
Free Agents
The top teams are often the most well-rounded, but the 2024 Guardians were defined by their strengths and weaknesses. Their bullpen was the best in baseball, but their starters were unreliable for most of the year. Meanwhile, their offense was excellent against left-handed pitching but struggled to score against righties. They were also one of the better defensive teams in the league by almost every metric, but their baserunning numbers were surprisingly mediocre. First and foremost, the Guardians need to focus on their scoring, and not run prevention, this winter. That said, they could badly use a couple more reliable options for the rotation.
All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan led the offense in 2024, and they’ll be back at the top of the order again next year. Even the notoriously stingy and trade-happy Guardians wouldn’t possibly part with their star third baseman, who continues to look like an absolute bargain on the seven-year, $141MM extension he signed in 2022. As for Kwan, the left fielder is a strong extension candidate himself after another terrific season.
Additional veterans in the lineup include the slugging Josh Naylor at first base, defensive stalwart Andrés Giménez at second, and trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas in center field. Youngsters Kyle Manzardo (DH), Bo Naylor (C), and Brayan Rocchio (SS) should have spots in next year’s starting nine as well. All three had up-and-down seasons, but considering their recent top prospect status, there’s little reason to think they won’t get to continue their development with the big league club in 2025. Indeed, the best way for Cleveland to improve its offense next year will be to get more production out of Manzardo, Bo Naylor, and Rocchio.
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Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Club Option On Eugenio Suárez
Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.
There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.
Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.
The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.
But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.
It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.
His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.
But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.
Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.
A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.
The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.
There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.
However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.
In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.
That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.
Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.
The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.
That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.
Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.
There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.
What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!
What should the Diamondback do with Eugenio Suárez?
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Pick up the club option and keep him. 60% (3,447)
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Decline the club option. 22% (1,243)
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Pick up the club option and trade him. 19% (1,068)
Total votes: 5,758
Where Can The Tigers Add Offense This Winter?
The Tigers enjoyed an incredible late-season surge and rode a strong September to not only an 85-win campaign but a playoff berth that brought them within one game of their first ALCS appearance since 2013. With a bona fide ace in Tarik Skubal and a core of talented young hitters like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows in place, it seems clear that the time has come for the club to be aggressive in supplementing that impressive core. To that end, president of baseball operations Scott Harris highlighted two major needs for the club at his end-of-season press conference: a quality right-handed bat and starting pitching help.
For a club that was reluctant to rely on any starting pitchers aside from Skubal in the postseason, finding rotation upgrades this season should be fairly easy. Adding a bat to the lineup, however, could be a bit more complicated given the club’s current construction on offense. The aforementioned trio of Greene, Carpenter, and Meadows are all outfielders, though Carpenter typically finds most of his playing time as a DH rather than on the outfield grass. The club is also deep in other potential outfield options, such as Matt Vierling, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Wenceel Perez, and Akil Baddoo.
While it’s certainly possible to squeeze a big bat such as Tyler O’Neill or Teoscar Hernandez into the lineup in right field, doing so would be a sub-optimal solution given the club’s deep cache of outfield options. Second base seems like an even more unlikely spot for an upgrade given the club’s six-year commitment to Colt Keith at the keystone, which they made last winter prior to his MLB debut. With a 97 wRC+ overall during his rookie campaign thanks to a .285/.338/.437 slash line in the last three months of the season, Keith certainly seems to have earned another crack at regular at-bats at the position.
That leaves few obvious places where the club could upgrade its offense. Perhaps there’s room for an offensive upgrade behind the plate, and rumors that Willson Contreras could be available as the Cardinals look to reduce payroll this winter would make for an on-paper match. As impressive as Contreras’s 133 wRC+ over the past three seasons has been, however, he’s a lackluster defender behind the plate and is headed for his age-33 season next year. Given that, it’s reasonable to wonder if Detroit would prefer to stick with the defensively excellent (if offensively lacking) Jake Rogers and youngster Dillon Dingler behind the plate next year. Dingler struggled in his first taste of big league action this year, but impressed with a 139 wRC+ at Triple-A this year and could improve offensively as he gets his feet wet in the majors.
That leaves the infield as perhaps the most likely place for the Tigers to find the right-handed offensive upgrade they desire, and free agency figures to play host to a handful of intriguing options should they be willing to spend. Willy Adames would certainly be a substantial upgrade to the club’s current shortstop mix, though adding a nine-figure commitment at the position when Javier Baez is still guaranteed $73MM over the next three seasons could be difficult to stomach. Meanwhile, third baseman Alex Bregman stands out as perhaps the other top free agent infielder and could be a somewhat clean fit for the Tigers if they’re uninterested in holding out a position for 2022 first-rounder Jace Jung, who posted a 102 wRC+ in his first taste of big league action this year but struck out at a 30.9% clip.
There is one other position where the club could clearly upgrade in free agency, and it’s one that would be shocking to suggest a few short years ago: first base. 2020 first-overall pick Spencer Torkelson was a consensus top-five prospect in the game prior to his MLB debut, dubbed virtually from the day he was drafted as a can’t-miss hitter with superstar potential. That hasn’t panned out to this point, however, as his offensive contributions through his third season in the majors have actually been below average overall. In 361 career games in the majors, Torkelson has hit just .221/.300/.392 with a wRC+ of 95. Perhaps that would be acceptable for a player with more defensive value, but Torkelson has generally been a below-average defender at one of the least demanding defensive positions on the diamond to this point in his career, leaving him with just 0.8 fWAR accumulated in his big league career to this point.
Of course, that’s not to say that there’s no reason for optimism regarding Torkelson. Perhaps the most significant factor in the slugger’s favor is his age, as he’ll play next year at just 25 years old. By comparison, rookie first baseman Michael Busch delivered a solid inaugural season (119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR) with the Cubs this year but is currently just two weeks shy of his 27th birthday. Fellow 1-1 pick Adley Rutschman had just 410 big league plate appearances under his belt on his 25th birthday, a mark Torkelson eclipsed in just the second game of his age-23 season.
It’s also worth noting that Torkelson has managed to deliver quality offense over shorter stretches. Just 13 months ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote about Torkelson’s mid-season improvements at the plate that allowed him to slash an impressive .242/.322/.500 (124 wRC+) with 20 home runs in his final 80 games of the 2023 campaign. A similar late-season surge occurred when he was called back up in mid-August of this year following a mid-season demotion: over the final six weeks of the season, Torkelson hit .248/.338/.444 with a wRC+ of 125.
That type of offense would make him exactly the sort of impactful right-handed slugger the Tigers would like to add if he was able to sustain it over a full season. That hasn’t come to pass so far, however, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press recently suggested things could be trending toward the sides parting ways. Petzold noted that “all signs point” to Torkelson no longer being the long-term solution at first base with a possibility that the club changes gears as soon as this winter.
Should the club decide they’d be better off pursuing a more established, reliable bat in free agency this winter, there’s a handful of options worth considering. Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, and Anthony Santander all have first base experience and could help to transform Detroit’s lineup, though Santander’s experience at first is somewhat limited. Alonso, in particular, seems to be a strong fit for the club’s needs if they decide to move on from Torkelson. He’s never posted a wRC+ below 120 in a season and will be just 30 years old next year, offering a consistency that’s difficult to match, and sensational campaigns in 2019 and 2022 saw him flash the MVP-candidate upside Tigers fans were surely dreaming on when they first drafted Torkelson.
Pivoting towards another player at first base would leave the club with a dilemma regarding what to do with Torkelson. It’s possible that semi-regular at-bats could be found for him even with an addition at first base; Carpenter has typically sat against most left-handed pitchers and played more than half of his games in the outfield this year, leaving room for Torkelson to start find frequent at-bats at DH, including starts against virtually every southpaw.
The club might be better off exploring what’s out there on the trade market, however. After all, Torkelson’s youth, pedigree, and impressive results at the big league level in short stretches could make him an attractive change-of-scenery candidate for an up-and-coming team with a hole at first base like the Nationals, or even a more established club with a need at the position like the Astros. If a club was willing to offer big league pitching in return for Torkelson’s services, that would surely be a difficult proposition for the Tigers to turn down if they were already eyeing an upgrade over Torkelson at first base.
Trade Candidate: Josh Naylor
Since Josh Naylor didn’t sign an extension with the Guardians during his pre-arbitration years, it has always seemed like there has been a ticking clock on the first baseman’s time in the Cleve. With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stay with the franchise, a look at Cleveland’s extension history over the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the simple truth that the Guards virtually never sign players to long-term extensions for significant salaries once they get within a year or two of free agency.
Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process. It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.
A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023. That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP. Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed. On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.
All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter. It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.
The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars. MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.
In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business. And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core. Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency. That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.
Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however. Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter. Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.
While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market. For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns. Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors. The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.
Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks. The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.
There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup. Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season. The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth. It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.
The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons. Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.
Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster. Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span. Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.
How The Dodgers Built Their World Series Roster
As the World Series gets underway, we’ll take a look at how both teams’ rosters were constructed. In a battle of big-market behemoths, much of the heavy lifting was accomplished via free agency. The Yankees and Dodgers have each done a lot in trade and graduated some key homegrown contributors to complement their splashes on the open market.
A player drafted or acquired in trade who subsequently hit free agency and re-signed will be classified as a free agent acquisition. The player’s history with the organization is a key part of why they returned, of course, but the most recent transaction was nevertheless to sign them to a free agent deal.
After looking at the Yankees earlier this evening, we turn to the Dodgers in their quest for a second title in five years.
Trade (9)
- Anthony Banda
- Austin Barnes
- Mookie Betts
- Tommy Edman
- Jack Flaherty
- Brusdar Graterol
- Michael Kopech
- Miguel Rojas
- Alex Vesia
The Yankees had massive trades for Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton. The Betts blockbuster may have been even more impactful. Los Angeles also landed Graterol from the Twins in that three-team deal. They dealt Kenta Maeda to Minnesota while sending Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong and Jeter Downs to Boston and taking on a chunk of the underwater David Price contract. L.A. immediately signed Betts to a $365MM extension. He has a trio of top five MVP finishes since donning Dodger blue. It’s one of the most impactful trades in MLB history.
Nothing quite matches up to the Betts deal, but L.A.’s World Series team is benefitting from a couple more big deadline trades. Game 1 starter Flaherty came over from the Tigers in a trade sending rookie infielder Trey Sweeney and catching prospect Thayron Liranzo to Detroit. That transaction, which dropped just minutes before the deadline, reportedly came within hours of the Yankees pulling out of a potential Flaherty trade because of concerns about his back.
For as well as Flaherty pitched down the stretch, the Dodgers’ bigger July move was another three-team trade. Los Angeles landed eventual NLCS MVP Edman from the Cardinals and future closer Kopech from the White Sox in a deal that cost them young infielder Miguel Vargas and prospects Alexander Albertus and Jeral Perez. Edman was recovering from wrist surgery and had yet to make his season debut at the time, while Kopech was sitting on a 4.74 ERA despite huge swing-and-miss numbers.
The oldest trade on this list happened a decade ago. The Dodgers and Marlins lined up on a seven-player deal that continues to have ripple effects. Los Angeles sent Dee Strange-Gordon, Miguel Rojas and Dan Haren to Miami for four players: Enrique Hernández, Andrew Heaney (immediately flipped to the Angels for Howie Kendrick), Chris Hatcher and Barnes. They’ve kept Barnes as a backup catcher ever since. Los Angeles would bring Rojas back nine years after moving him. The Dodgers acquired the veteran infielder in a one-for-one swap that sent infield prospect Jacob Amaya to the Fish. Amaya played four games for Miami before they waived him.
Los Angeles continues to benefit from another minor trade with the Marlins. In 2021, the Dodgers sent middle reliever Dylan Floro to Miami for Vesia and Kyle Hurt. Vesia has a 2.57 ERA over four seasons in Los Angeles. He is Dave Roberts’ top lefty bullpen arm. Vesia is backed up by Banda, a well-regarded prospect turned journeyman. The Dodgers acquired him in a cash trade with the Guardians in May.
MLB Free Agency (8)
- Ryan Brasier (re-signed)
- Freddie Freeman
- Enrique Hernández (re-signed)
- Teoscar Hernández
- Shohei Ohtani
- Chris Taylor (re-signed)
- Blake Treinen (re-signed)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Most of L.A.’s biggest free agent pickups came last winter. The Ohtani signing will go down as one of the biggest transactions in MLB history. The deferral-laden structure made it one of the most controversial sports contracts ever. After accounting for the deferred money, MLB values the $700MM as an approximate $461MM deal for luxury tax purposes. By any measure, it’s still the largest deal of all time — a record it’ll hold until Juan Soto signs this offseason. Ohtani became the first player in league history to go 50-50 and is going to win the NL MVP in year one.
Within weeks of landing Ohtani, the Dodgers signed Yamamoto to the biggest pitching contract ever. The 25-year-old righty signed for 12 years and $325MM before throwing his first pitch in MLB. A rotator cuff injury cost him a chunk of his first big league season, but he turned in an even 3.00 earned run average through 18 starts. Teoscar Hernández inked a one-year, $23.5MM pillow contract that was also deferred. The two-time All-Star was coming off a down year with the Mariners but rebounded with a 33-homer showing reminiscent of his best days with the Blue Jays.
Freeman was a big-ticket signee coming out of the lockout in 2022. He inked a six-year, $162MM deal (deferrals knocked the NPV closer to $140MM). The former MVP has picked up where he left off in Atlanta. He’s a .314/.399/.520 hitter in more than 2000 plate appearances across three seasons with Los Angeles.
Taylor, Brasier, Enrique Hernández and Treinen have all re-signed with the Dodgers in recent years. Los Angeles acquired Taylor from the Mariners in 2016 for righty Zach Lee. Taylor developed into a key super utility piece whom the Dodgers eventually re-signed for $60MM.
Treinen has signed successive short-term contracts and continues to pitch well at the back of Roberts’ bullpen when healthy. Enrique Hernández is a clubhouse favorite who has tended to elevate his game in October. The Dodgers reacquired him from the Red Sox at the 2023 deadline and brought him back on a $4MM free agent pact last winter. Los Angeles signed Brasier to a minor league deal midway through the 2023 season after he was released by the Red Sox. He dominated in Southern California and returned on a two-year, $9MM contract.
First-Year Player Draft (5)
Buehler, Lux and Smith are former first-round picks. Buehler fell to 24th overall coming out of Vanderbilt in 2015 because of concerns about his arm health. He underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after being drafted but developed into an ace before going under the knife again in 2022. He has been a shell of his former self this year. The Dodgers grabbed both Lux and Smith the following year. L.A. took Lux 20th overall out of a Wisconsin high school before grabbing Smith, a Louisville product, 12 picks later.
He has three career MLB appearances. Knack was a senior sign out of East Tennessee State in 2020. He started 12 of 15 appearances with solid results, but he’s working in low-leverage relief in October. Casparius, a UCONN product, went in the fifth round in 2021.
Minor League Contracts (2)
Muncy was an excellent find. A career .195/.290/.321 hitter when he was waived by the A’s, he signed a minor league deal in April 2018. He has four 35-homer seasons and three years with appearances on MVP ballots in the seven years since then. Muncy has signed successive extensions and has a .230/.356/.487 line in nearly 3000 plate appearances in a Dodger uniform.
- Daniel Hudson (re-signed)
Hudson re-signed with L.A. on a minor league deal last offseason. There seemed to be a handshake agreement that the Dodgers would carry him on the Opening Day roster. Hudson was coming off consecutive seasons wrecked by knee injuries but stayed healthy and tossed 65 innings of 3.00 ERA ball this year.
International Amateur Signing (1)
The Dodgers signed Pages for $300K out of Cuba in 2018. The outfielder has improved his stock to become one of the organization’s top prospects. He debuted this season and hit .248/.305/.407 with 15 homers.
Waivers (1)
Los Angeles claimed Honeywell off waivers from the Pirates in June. They waived him themselves but called him back up at the end of August.
Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
After finishing the 2023 season with the best record in baseball, the Braves disappointed somewhat in 2024 amid an avalanche of injuries to star players and underwhelming numbers from much of their offensive nucleus. This offseason, they'll need to reshape their rotation as their longest-tenured starter hits free agency while also overhauling their bench mix in hopes of re-capturing their hold over their NL East from the division-champion Phillies and a surging Mets club that made it all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Austin Riley, 3B: $176MM through 2032 (deal includes club option for 2033)
- Matt Olson, 1B: $110MM through 2029 (deal includes club option for 2030)
- Spencer Strider, RHP: $73MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout on 2029 club option)
- Michael Harris II, CF: $64MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout on 2031 club option; additional club option for '32)
- Sean Murphy, C: $60MM through 2028 (deal includes club option for 2029)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. RF: $44MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on 2027 club option; additional club option for '28)
- Jorge Soler, RF: $32MM through 2026
- Reynaldo Lopez, RHP: $26MM through 2026 (includes $4MM buyout on 2027 club option)
- Chris Sale, LHP: $22MM through 2025 (deal includes club option for 2026)
- Joe Jimenez, RHP: $18MM through 2026
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP: $16MM through 2025
- Ozzie Albies, 2B: $11MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on 2026 club option; additional club option for '27)
- David Fletcher, INF/RHP: $8MM through 2025 (includes $1.5MM buyout on 2026 club option)
- Pierce Johnson, RHP: $7.25MM through 2025 (includes $250K buyout on 2026 club option)
- Orlando Arcia, SS: $3MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout on 2026 club option)
Option Decisions
- Marcell Ozuna, DH: $16MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Travis d'Arnaud, C: $8MM club option with no buyout
- Aaron Bummer, LHP: $7.25MM club option with $1.25MM buyout (deal also includes $7.5MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
- Luke Jackson, RHP: $7MM club option with $2MM buyout
2025 financial commitments: $188.75MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $674.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
- Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
- Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
- Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
- Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
- Eli White (2.140): $800K
Non-tender candidates: Laureano, Biggio, Ynoa, White
Free Agents
Max Fried, Charlie Morton, A.J. Minter, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Adam Duvall, Jesse Chavez, John Brebbia
With a number of quality players still under long-term team control, Atlanta remains firmly in the midst of its competitive window despite a disappointing 89-win campaign in 2024. The impending free agency of Max Fried, who has anchored the club's rotation for the past half decade, would perhaps be more concerning for the club's chances of rebounding in 2025 if GM Alex Anthopoulos's front office hadn't already successfully navigated the departures of both MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson in recent years.
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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS. This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trea Turner, SS: $245,454,546 through 2033
- Bryce Harper, 1B: $170MM through 2031
- Aaron Nola, SP: $147,428,571 through 2030
- Zack Wheeler, SP: $126MM through 2027
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $40MM through 2026
- Taijuan Walker, SP: $36MM through 2026
- J.T. Realmuto, C: $23.875M through 2025
- Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $20.5MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
- Kyle Schwarber, DH: $20MM through 2025
- Jose Alvarado, RP: $9.5MM through 2025 (includes $500K buyout of $9MM club option for 2026)
- Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2025 (Phillies have $4.5MM club option for 2026)
2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
- Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
- Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
- Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
- Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
- Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
- Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
- Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Allard, Hays, Stubbs
Free Agents
The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games. Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.
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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers
While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.
The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.
We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.
No-Doubters
- Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
- Max Fried (Braves)
These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.
As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.
Likely
- Sean Manaea (Mets)
Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.
The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.
Borderline Calls
- Luis Severino (Mets)
Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.
The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.
New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.
The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.
- Michael Wacha (Royals)
Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.
It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.
An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.
This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.
Long Shots
- Shane Bieber (Guardians)
Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.
- Jeff Hoffman (Phillies)
Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).
- Nick Martinez (Reds)
Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.
- Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.
Ineligible
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers)
- Jack Flaherty (Dodgers)
- Yusei Kikuchi (Astros)
- Max Scherzer (Rangers)
- Tanner Scott (Padres)
- Blake Snell (Giants)
Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.
The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.
Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
The Twins enraged fans by slashing roughly $30MM of payroll after finally breaking their postseason losing streak last year, only to eventually endure one of the worst collapses of any team in recent history. As fans reeled from seeing a club that was a 95% playoff favorite late in the year somehow miss the postseason entirely, ownership announced its intent to explore a sale of the team. It's going to be quite the offseason in Minnesota.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Correa, SS: $128MM through 2028 (contract contains series of four vesting options)
- Pablo Lopez, RHP: $64.5MM through 2027
- Byron Buxton, CF: $60MM through 2028
- Christian Vazquez, C: $10MM through 2025
- Chris Paddack, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
- Randy Dobnak, RHP: $4MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM club option for 2026)
Guaranteed salary for the 2025 season: $93MM
Total long-term guaranteed money: $274MM
Option Decisions
- Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout (Rays responsible for buyout)
- Kyle Farmer, INF: $6.25MM mutual option with $250K buyout
- Jorge Alcala, RHP: $1.5MM club option with $55K buyout (would remain arb-eligible if declined)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
- Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM (Twins hold $1.5MM club option/$55K buyout)
- Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
- Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
- Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
- Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
- Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
- Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
- Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
- Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
- Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
- Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Tonkin, Topa, Kirilloff
Free Agents
It's been less than two years since the Twins installed Joe Pohlad as their executive chair and control person of the club. The grandson of Carl Pohlad, who purchased the club in 1984, and nephew of his successor Jim Pohlad, Joe took over control of the club not long after turning 40 years old. His first offseason instilled hope of a changing tide in Minnesota. The Twins handed out a franchise-record $200MM contract to keep Carlos Correa in Minnesota. By 2023, they trotted out a club-record payroll approaching $160MM and, for the first time since 2002, won a playoff series.
The good vibes didn't last. As soon as last offseason began, talk of reducing payroll amid uncertainty surrounding the team's television deal emerged. The Twins were one of several teams impacted, but few clubs pulled back spending to the extent of Minnesota. Payroll was slashed by about $30MM -- roughly 20% of the team's total spending the year prior -- leaving the front office to operate on the margins and bring in a series of budget-driven, short-term pickups to address a sweeping slate of needs, most notably the departure of 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray.
Nearly all of the bargain pickups the Twins put together fell short. Carlos Santana proved a successful move, hitting .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base. The others flopped.
Free agent relievers Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont struggled and were released midseason. Anthony DeSclafani, who'd missed most of '23 with injury, had season-ending surgery before the season began. Justin Topa, acquired alongside DeSclafani in the trade sending Jorge Polanco to the Mariners, missed almost all season with a knee injury suffered in spring training. Steven Okert, acquired for Nick Gordon, was dropped from the 40-man roster in August. The Twins got a couple prospects of note in that Polanco trade (Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen), so maybe it'll pan out in the long run, but insofar as the 2024 campaign is concerned, every addition fell short.
Despite those offseason whiffs, the Twins were in contention for much of the season. A good portion of that was spent chasing an upstart Guardians club, but for most of the summer the Twins were given overwhelming odds to reach the postseason. Even on Sept. 5, FanGraphs gave them a 95.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Twins faceplanted as the Tigers surged past them. Joe Pohlad opened the offseason by sidestepping payroll questions but pledging to put a better product on the field (X link via Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic).
Within the next two weeks, major changes had seized headlines in Minnesota. The Twins saw general manager Thad Levine -- No. 2 on their baseball operations hierarchy behind president Derek Falvey -- step down and leave the club. Days later, the Twins sent a press release announcing the Pohlad family's intent to explore a sale of the team.
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