Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Rebound Candidate: Blake Snell

By | at

Right off the top, I’ll acknowledge the term ’rebound candidate’ is a bit strong to describe Blake Snell. Even looking only at bottom line results, Snell’s 2019 season was serviceable. He logged a 4.29 ERA in 107 innings over 23 starts; Baseball Reference, which emphasizes run prevention in its WAR calculation, pegged Snell at a decent 1.4 wins above replacement.

There’s no question, though, it marked a step back from his otherworldly 2018 results. That year, he tossed 180.2 innings while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine. That league-best run prevention translated to 7.1 bWAR. Looking solely at the results, it’d be easy to conclude Snell took a massive step back last season.

Every team now looks beyond a pitcher’s mere run prevention (or win-loss record, where Snell also regressed dramatically). Looking deeper, the southpaw looked a lot like his 2018 self last year. His average fastball velocity dropped about half a mile per hour, but he still sat 95.89 MPH, per Brooks Baseball. No other left-handed starter threw harder. His spin rates across the board remained consistent 2018 to 2019, as did his arm slot. On the whole, Snell was working with the same raw stuff that enabled his 2018 dominance.

Admittedly, retaining his stuff from the year prior doesn’t automatically mean he was as effective. But on a micro level, Snell looked every bit as dominant. His 2019 strikeout rate (33.3%) was up nearly two percentage points from the year before (31.6%). His walk rate (9.1%) in each year was identical. Most importantly, Snell’s 17.7% swinging strike rate ranked #1 among all MLB starters (minimum 60 innings). The names just behind him are a who’s who of the game’s top arms: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo, Jacob deGrom.

Nor was this a case of a pitcher with dominant strike zone metrics who got bombed when hitters did make contact. Snell’s 88 MPH average exit velocity and 32% hard contact rate allowed were league average, generally the same level of contact quality he surrendered in 2018. Snell’s opponents’ BABIP rose over .100 points between 2018-19, but there’s nothing to suggest he got any more hittable. (He did surrender a few more line drives last season, but large changes in line drive rate don’t tend to stick year to year). It just seems that more batted balls dropped in; if even a league average amount of those batted balls find gloves moving forward, he should again be one of the league’s toughest pitchers to score against.

If a 2020 season is ultimately played, Snell looks more than capable of contending for another Cy Young. He had a precautionary cortisone shot in his throwing elbow in February, but at last check he was feeling ’fine.’ Assuming the layoff allows him to reemerge at full health, Snell looks on track to reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best pitchers.

GM Trade History: Rays’ Erik Neander

By and | at

The small market Rays have long been proactive on the trade market. That’s been the club’s preferred method of fielding competitive rosters while maintaining one of the league’s lowest payrolls. That can sometimes require moves unpopular with the fan base, although like any team, the Rays have had their fair share of wins (and a few losses).

Since the Rays promoted Erik Neander to GM in 2016, the front office has been active as ever on the trade market. We’ll look back at the GM’s trade history (excluding the most minor swaps) over that time, with a full breakdown of each at the included links. With two of Neander’s former top lieutenants now running AL rivals (Chaim Bloom in Boston and James Click in Houston), it’ll be fascinating to see how the club proceeds once they’re again able to make transactions.

2016-2017 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-2018 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-2019 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-2020 Offseason

 

How would you grade Neander’s wheeling and dealing as the Rays’ baseball ops head? (Link to poll for mobile app users)

 

Interested in how other GMs hold up under this exercise? We’ve covered Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies’ GM Matt Klentak, and Dodgers’ GM Andrew Friedman as well.

Three Diamondbacks Minority Owners Sue Managing General Partner

By | at

A trio of Diamondbacks minority owners have filed a lawsuit against the franchise’s managing general partner Ken Kendrick, according to a report from Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. The plaintiffs allege that Kendrick illegally forced them to either increase their stake in the Diamondbacks or have their shares bought out by the team. Kendrick argues that he and the team were within their rights to issue such an ultimatum.

The dispute stems from a letter in which Kendrick instructed minority owners with stakes of less than one percent to either increase their share to at least that threshold or to sell their shares back to the team at a price determined by a third-party appraiser. That decision was motivated by the Diamondbacks’ desire to “streamline its ownership group” and decrease the number of owners with minimal stakes in the franchise.

That initiative was backed by MLB, which “prefers” that teams maintain smaller ownership groups to facilitate more efficient governance. However, the suing owners argue that since the idea originated with the Diamondbacks and was brought to MLB for approval, the minority owners maintain their status as eligible holders.

For what it’s worth, Buchanan went on to say via Twitter that the lawsuit is in no way related to the team’s ballpark concerns, which have prompted rumors about relocation. Since the three stakeholders involved in the lawsuit all own less than one percent of the team, Buchanan says, “they have no governing power over it,” and therefore the franchise could relocate with them on board. Kendrick and team president and CEO Derrick Hall spoke in February about the team’s stadium situation, hinting at a persisting hope to construct a new ballpark (be it in Arizona or elsewhere). The team’s stadium lease with Maricopa County would allow the D-Backs to leave Chase Field as early as 2022.

It’ll be a story worth following as the suit progresses, and we’ll be sure to provide updates for you as they come.

NL Notes: Crawford, Kim, Mikolas, Cecil, Johnson

By | at

Brandon Crawford gave the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea a rundown of his daily routine, as the Giants shortstop is busy balancing his time with his wife and four young children alongside workouts and engaging in whatever baseball activities he can manage from his house.  On this particular day, for example, Crawford and the Giants’ team yoga instructor met via video conferencing for a session “based on baseball mobility and movements that we need,” Crawford said.

Some more from the National League…

  • While Crawford is one of many players staying at home with his family during the shutdown, newly-signed Cardinals left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim is in St. Louis while his family is in South Korea.  Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that Kim could potentially return to Korea while Major League Baseball is on hiatus.  “I can only imagine the mental challenge [Kim is] under with his wife and children back in South Korea, trying to adapt to a new country, a new team, and then have all this thrust upon him,” Mozeliak said.  “So we’re trying to navigate that as best we can, but…clearly this has not been easy for him, and I think all of us could understand why.”
  • From that same teleconference earlier this week, Mozeliak also provided updates on some injured Cardinals players.  Miles Mikolas continues to make progress after suffering a flexor tendon strain in February and receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, as Mikolas will soon throw a bullpen session and is currently throwing from 120 feet.  Brett Cecil recently took time off from his hamstring injury rehab for personal reasons, but Mozeliak said Cecil will resume the process next week.  Cecil suffered what manager Mike Shildt described as a “fairly significant” right hamstring strain in mid-March, and while no specific timeline was put in place, it was thought that Cecil was facing “multiple weeks of treatment.”
  • After pitching in Japan in 2019, Pierce Johnson signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Padres this offseason to mark his return to North American baseball.  As Johnson told Fangraphs’ David Laurila, “a few other teams kicked the tires” on the right-hander’s availability, and he also came “really close to taking” an offer to remain with the Hanshin Tigers.  Ultimately, Johnson chose the Padres and MLB in order to bring his family back closer to home.  Johnson posted only a 5.44 ERA over his 44 2/3 career Major League innings with the Cubs and Giants in 2017-18, though his season in Nippon Professional Baseball greatly elevated his stock, as the righty posted a 1.38 ERA, 14.0 K/9, and 7.00 K/BB rate over 58 2/3 relief innings for the Tigers.

MLBTR Originals: 3/30/20 – 4/5/20

By | at

Even with the baseball world shut down, MLB Trade Rumors is still covering any breaking news from around the game, while also exploring some broader topics.  Here’s the roundup of the week’s original content from the MLBTR staff….

  • “What one piece of advice would you give to a college student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day?”  Tim Dierkes’ question was answered by ten of baseball’s top-ranking front office executives, in an insight into what might be the best ways to land a job with a Major League team.
  • Jeff Todd’s daily YouTube video updates looked back at a pair of major trades in Padres history — the April 2015 acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Braves, and the June 2016 deal that sent James Shields to the White Sox for a then-relatively unheralded infield prospect named Fernando Tatis Jr.  Jeff’s other topics this week included a look back at his picks in the MLBTR free agent prediction contest, and rating the trade histories of White Sox GM Rick Hahn and Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen.
  • Hahn was also one of the front office bosses profiled this week as part of the GM Trade History series, where readers can grade each executive’s trading prowess.  This week, Jeff Todd, Connor Byrne, and Steve Adams covered eight different presidents of baseball operations/general managers — Hahn, the Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, the Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman, the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Phillies’ Matt Klentak, and the Tigers’ Al Avila.
  • One of the biggest trades Dipoto and Hazen swung over their respective front office tenures came in November 2016, when the Diamondbacks acquired Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis.  Connor Byrne broke down the many ripple effects from that fascinating swap.
  • While we’re looking back at past transactions, some other notable past deals were revisited this week.  Connor Byrne explored the Cardinals’ ill-fated signing of Greg Holland in March 2018, as well as the January 2017 trade between the Reds and Marlins that resulted in Luis Castillo coming to Cincinnati.  Since we just passed the anniversary of Elvis Andrus’ extension with the Rangers, Mark Polishuk looked at how that contract was faring five years into its duration.
  • The Offseason In Review series continued, with this week’s entries covering the winter business of the Rangers, Giants, and Reds.
  • Steve Adams focused the Rookie Radar on some AL East and NL Central youngsters who could be immediate contributors if the 2020 season gets underway.
  • Speaking of young talent, how about a little Prospect Faceoff action?  This week’s matchups included Luis Robert vs. Jo Adell, Gavin Lux versus Wander Franco, Jesus Luzardo against MacKenzie Gore, Joey Bart taking on Adley Rutschman, and Casey Mize battling Nate Pearson.
  • Why was Yasiel Puig the last major free agent left without a new team?  Connor Byrne examines the question by breaking down the outfielder’s 2019 numbers.
  • The Rockies haven’t had much recent success in free agency, as Connor Byrne looks at how the club hasn’t gotten any return on its last eight signings of more than $10MM in guaranteed money.
  • Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander could be ready for a breakout season, George Miller writes.  Steve Adams also looks at a pair of other players in our Breakout Candidate series — Braves southpaw Max Fried and Mariners righty Austin L. Adams.
  • As complete games become more of a rarity in baseball, the four consecutive complete games tossed by White Sox starters in the 2005 ALCS stands out as an even more incredible feat today as it did over 14 years ago.  TC Zencka revisits that signature achievement from the World Series-winning club.
  • The threat of a heavily-shortened or completely canceled 2020 season would be a particularly huge blow to teams built to win now, as Steve Adams and Connor Byrne observe in their looks at how the delayed season impacts the Twins and Athletics.

Mets Notes: Harvey, Employee Fund, Matz

By | at

It was on this day in 1972 that the Montreal Expos traded the franchise’s first star, as Rusty Staub was sent to the Mets for a three-player package consisting of Ken Singleton, Mike Jorgensen, and Tim Foli.  All three players ended up being productive regulars during their time in Montreal, so it didn’t turn out to be a bad swap for the Expos, as much as fans missed having “Le Grand Orange” in the lineup.  Montreal’s loss was New York’s gain, as Staub hit .276/.361/.428 over 2263 PA with the Mets from 1972-75 and also delivered a huge performance during the Mets’ playoff run in 1973.  Staub had a 1.096 OPS over 46 postseason plate appearances that year, and quite possibly could have been World Series MVP had New York beaten the Athletics in the seven-game Fall Classic.  Staub ended up playing nine of his 23 seasons in a Mets uniform, returning for a second stint with the franchise from 1981-85.

Some more from Queens….

  • A reunion between Matt Harvey and the Mets doesn’t seem likely, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes that the Amazins “weren’t interested” in Harvey over the offseason and he doesn’t believe the club has been in contact with the right-hander.  Given some of the off-the-field controversy that surrounded Harvey during his previous tenure in New York, it probably isn’t a surprise that the Mets have seemingly closed the door on their former All-Star.  Aside from a tryout with the Blue Jays earlier this winter, Harvey hasn’t been publicly linked to any teams since his minor league deal with the Athletics expired at the end of the season.  Harvey has posted a 5.89 ERA over 307 1/3 innings with the Mets, Reds, and Angels since undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery midway through the 2016 season.
  • The Mets announced Friday that a financial aid program had been developed for seasonal game-day staff members.  The $1.2MM fund will be mostly given out in the form of “need-based grants” for staffers who directly work for the Mets, while remaining money will be divided among subcontracted workers (employed by Aramark, Impark, and Alliance) who serve in various roles around the ballpark.
  • Left-hander Steven Matz is also helping COVID-19 relief efforts, announcing (Twitter links) that his TRU32 charity is donating $32K to first responders and hospitals in New York.  The organization’s first donation is going Elmhurst Hospital in Queens, located less than three miles from Citi Field.

Quick Hits: Verlander, Draft Scouting, Moore

By | at

Justin Verlander is the latest player to contribute towards the COVID-19 relief effort, as the Astros ace and his wife Kate Upton announced (via Twitter) that Verlander’s weekly paycheck will be donated to a different organization every week.  “We’ll also be highlighting the organization that we choose so that that everyone can see the amazing work they’re doing right now,” Upton said.  As per the terms of the recent agreement between the MLB Players Association and Major League Baseball, Verlander is part of the group of players (who have reached salary arbitration or are on guaranteed contracts) that will receive roughly $5K per day in both April and May.  Now, all of the money Verlander receives from those payments will go to a variety of worthy causes.

Some more from around the baseball world…

  • Major League scouts will soon be permitted to contact prospects for the 2020 draft and the 2020-21 international signing period (as well as the prospects’ families and advisers) beginning next week, CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson writes.  MLB halted all scouting activities as part of the league-wide shutdown in March, and any sort of in-person workouts or meetings are still banned.  ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel reports that teams are also not permitted to view any video footage of such workout sessions that took place after March 27.  That said, teams can gather data and video on players (from third parties or from the prospects’ representatives) prior to that date, and also contact the prospects’ teams by phone, e-mail, or any other type of indirect method.  With some rough plans now in place for a shortened 2020 draft, teams will now have some avenues to gain fresher information on players they might wish to select.  The amateur draft will now take place in July, while the next international signing period (originally scheduled to open on July 2) could be pushed back as far as January.
  • The 2020 season was already going to be a new experience for Matt Moore after the left-hander signed with Nippon Professional Baseball’s SoftBank Hawks, though the coronavirus pandemic has created an extra layer of unexpected adversity.  Moore talks to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about the differences and similarities between playing and living in Japan as opposed to the majors, his offseason courtship from SoftBank that included a private workout for the team, and how playing for the Hawks marks something of a return.  Moore spent four years living in Japan as a child when his father was transferred to a U.S. Air Force base in Okinawa.

Transaction Retrospection: Elvis Andrus’ Extension

By | at

Contract extensions have been a key part of Jon Daniels’ team-building strategy over his 14+ years as the Rangers’ general manager, and the richest of those extensions was completed seven years ago today.  Elvis Andrus agreed to an eight-year, $120MM contract that also contains a $15MM vesting option for the 2023 season.

The new deal began with the 2015 season, which would have been Andrus’ first free agent year.  Andrus was already signed to a previous extension — a three-year/$14.4MM pact for the 2012-14 seasons, which were Andrus’ three arbitration years — and thus Texas needed to make a sizeable investment to keep Andrus off the open market.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of the deal, “Scott Boras has managed to secure the largest extension ever for a shortstop in terms of new money,” which was perhaps a necessary step given that Boras usually advises his clients to test free agency.  (In fact, the Andrus deal has been cited for years as one of the relatively few examples of a Boras Corporation client signing a long-term extension that covers free agent seasons.)

At the time of the deal, it’s quite possible the Rangers felt they would ultimately be on the hook for only the first four years (and $62MM) of the extension.  Andrus had opt-out clauses after both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and as deep as a week into the 2018 campaign, he looked like a strong candidate to exercise that first clause given his improved offensive production in 2016-17.  However, a fractured elbow cost Andrus two months of the 2018 season and he never really got on track after the injury, thus informing his decision to stick with Texas in 2019.

Last season, Andrus just flat-out struggled, hitting .275/.313/393 (76 wRC+, 78 OPS+) over 648 PA, with a career-low 5.2% walk rate and a major lack of quality contact, as per his Statcast numbers.  In the wake of that poor season, Andrus again chose to pass on his opt-out clause, leaving Texas owing the shortstop $43MM through the 2022 campaign and now not really knowing what to expect from Andrus performance-wise over those three seasons.

Such risks are baked into any extension, of course, and it’s worth noting that Andrus’ hitting potential was a question mark even back at the time of his 2013 deal.  Though he had been a highly-touted prospect (Baseball America ranked Andrus as the 19th-best prospect in the sport prior to the 2008 season) during his time in the Rangers’ farm system, Andrus’ minor league numbers weren’t overly impressive.  Even at the big league level, he hit only .275/.342/.353 over his first 2591 MLB plate appearances.

That said, 2012 marked Andrus’ best offensive showing to date, as he hit .286/.349/.378 over 711 PA and reached the AL All-Star roster for the second time in his career.  And, it’s unfair to say that Andrus wasn’t a valuable offensive player early in his career, considering that his solid average and OBP were augmented by superb speed and baserunning.  Combine these skills with a solidly above-average glovework at shortstop, and it’s easy to see why Texas felt comfortable making a long-term bet on Andrus’ future.

Had that extension not been signed, Andrus would have been a 26-year-old free agent hitting the free agent market in the 2014-15 offseason.  There wasn’t much in the way of premium middle infield talent available that winter, so even though Andrus didn’t do a ton to elevate his stock over the 2013-14 seasons, his young age and hints at further productivity could have still potentially led to a nine-figure contract.  An Andrus free agent deal could have been something of a forerunner to Jason Heyward’s deal with the Cubs a year later, with a team choosing to pay a premium for a 26-year-old, non-elite offensive player based on their overall skillset and future breakout potential.  Heyward had a much better hitting track record than Andrus, so the shortstop wouldn’t have gotten anywhere near the $184MM and eight years Heyward got from the Cubs, though it isn’t a reach to guess that a team could have given Andrus a six-year commitment.

Though it isn’t known whether Andrus will be able to get back on track in 2020 (if there is a season) or beyond, the uncertainty of the back end of his deal doesn’t mean the extension was a mistake for the Rangers.  As per Fangraphs, Andrus has already delivered $85.8MM worth of value over the first five years of the contract, surpassing the $77MM he has earned in real-life money.  Andrus was a major contributor to the Rangers’ AL West titles in 2015 and 2016, and while he has never matched his offensive peaks of 2016 and 2017, his sheer durability has also been a big point of value — the fractured elbow is the only significant injured list stint of Andrus’ entire career.

Indeed, that wayward pitch from Keynan Middleton (on the second-last at-bat of a 7-2 Angels win over the Rangers on April 11, 2018) might end up being the real what-if moment of Andrus’ tenure with the Rangers.  Had Andrus gone on to match his 2016-17 numbers in an uninterrupted 2018 season, he would surely have opted out of his contract and, even in the slow-moving 2018-19 free agent market easily topped the four years and $48MM left on this Texas deal.  In such a scenario, the critics currently bemoaning the Andrus extension would probably have then been criticizing Daniels for negotiating an opt-out clause into the deal in the first place.

Andrus is a notable question mark for a Texas team that is looking to turn things around after three losing seasons.  While the 2020 season could end up being a wash, getting one more solid year out of Andrus in 2021 or 2022 could be enough to mark down the extension as a win for the Rangers in the eyes of the general fanbase.  Even if 2019 is the beginning of end for Andrus as a productive regular, he has still done enough over the course of his contract to make it a decent return for the Rangers, even if that hoped-for leap into superstardom for Andrus never happened.

Yankees Re-Sign David Hale

By | at

TODAY: As it turns out, Hale was re-signed by the Yankees shortly after he was released.  He was initially let go in order to rework the specifics of his minors contract, and to incorporate a new opt-out date into the deal.  The new pact has a deadline set for five days prior to the beginning of the season, whenever that may be.

APRIL 2: The Yankees have released righty David Hale, Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America reports. This move occurred before the institution of a leaguewide roster freeze.

Hale signed yet another minor-league deal with the Yankees over the offseason. He has gone through numerous procedural moves with the club while moving onto and off of the active and 40-man rosters.

Last season was a productive one for the 32-year-old. He threw 37 2/3 innings over twenty appearances in the bigs, working to a 3.11 ERA with 23 strikeouts against seven walks along with a 50% groundball rate. That represented Hale’s most extensive MLB action since 2015.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top