Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21
The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.
We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
- Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia avoided arbitration with a $1.95MM deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The team also reached an agreement for $805K with reliever Robert Stephenson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Tigers have deals with infielder Jeimer Candelario ($2.85MM), outfielder JaCoby Jones ($2.65MM) and righty Jose Cisnero ($970K), Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays.
- The Yankees and reliever Chad Green settled for $2.15MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
- The Marlins and lefty Richard Bleier have a deal for $1.425MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
- The Dodgers reached a $3.6MM settlement with lefty Julio Urias, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Angels announced a deal with righty Dylan Bundy for $8.325MM.
- The Tigers and southpaw Matthew Boyd have settled for $6.5MM, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets.
- The Yankees have deals with catcher Gary Sanchez ($6.35MM), first baseman Luke Voit ($4.7MM), third baseman Gio Urshela ($4.65MM), shortstop Gleyber Torres ($4MM) and outfielder Clint Frazier ($2.1MM), per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
- The Rays and outfielder Manuel Margot avoided arbitration with a $3.4MM agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Padres and outfielder Tommy Pham have a deal for $8.9MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Dan Altavilla settled for $850K, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets.
- The Angels and righty Felix Pena have come to terms for $1.1MM, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have reached a $4.575MM agreement, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
- The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have come to a $4.7MM agreement, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.
- The Reds and righty Luis Castillo have settled for $4.2MM, Robert Murray of FanSided relays.
- The Rays reached a $2.25MM agreement with infielder Joey Wendle and a $1.175MM settlement with righty Yonny Chirinos, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cardinals and flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks have an agreement for $862,500, according to Heyman.
- The White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito avoided arbitration with a $4.15MM agreement, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
- The Pirates and righty Joe Musgrove have reached an agreement for $4.45MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They also made deals with second/baseman outfielder Adam Frazier ($4.3MM), third baseman Colin Moran ($2.8MM) righty Chad Kuhl ($2.13MM) and lefty Steven Brault ($2.05MM), per reports from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com.
- Hard-throwing right-hander Reyes Moronta agreed to a $695K deal with the Giants after missing the 2020 season due to shoulder surgery, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- The Tigers agreed to a $2.1MM deal with infielder Niko Goodrum, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided. They also inked lefty Daniel Norris for a $3.475MM salary, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Pirates agreed to a $1.3MM deal with catcher Jacob Stallings and a $1.1MM deal with righty Chris Stratton, per Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter links).
- Athletics right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a $912,500 salary for the 2021 season, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- Right-hander Richard Rodriguez and the Pirates agreed to a $1.7MM deal, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Catcher Jorge Alfaro and the Marlins agreed to a $2.05MM deal, tweets Craig Mish of SportsGrid.
- The Reds agreed to a $2.2MM deal with right-hander Tyler Mahle, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. Cincinnati also signed lefty Amir Garrett for $1.5MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
- The Indians agreed to a $2.4MM deal with newly acquired shortstop Amed Rosario and a $975K deal with righty Phil Maton, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic.
- The Tigers and righty Buck Farmer settled at $1.85MM, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Marlins agreed to a $1.9MM deal with right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reynolds, Newman, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Flaherty
The Pirates are more likely than not to land outside the playoff picture in 2020, but they’ve not given up the notion of wreaking some havoc on the NL Central this year. To do so, however, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman will need to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. True enough, Reynolds and Newman came out the gate strong in 2019, posting 3.2 fWAR and 2.4 fWAR, respectively. And yet, teaming their rookie duo with Josh Bell‘s breakout bat still only amounted to the 20th-ranked offense by runs scored (758 runs), 19th by wRC+ (92). Beyond these three, the other two Pirates rounding out their top-5 by wRC+ in 2019 now play for different teams (Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson), and the sixth is a pitcher (Steven Brault). Immediately upon the close of 2019, the Pirates had planned to give Brault a go as a two-way player, but with new leadership up and down the organization, it’s unclear what his role will be. Regardless, Jarrod Dyson is the biggest addition made the to position player group this winter. Reynolds and Newman are core pieces of this lineup, and the good news is this: if they do slump in their sophomore seasons, they should have enough leash to find their way back. Let’s jump from the bottom of the NL Central to the top and check in with the reigning divisional champs…
- As Spring Training games kick off (weather permitting), hitters around the league are putting their offseason swing adjustments to the test. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals will all be deploying tweaked swings to some degree as they seek the kind of offensive consistency that eluded the trio last year, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldy was the most successful of the three, but his fortunes at the plate sunk and fell seemingly on a monthly basis, and he never quite settled into the type of season to which he is accustomed. A .260 BA was his lowest mark since 2012 by almost thirty points, and while his power remained decidedly above average, it did drop from the astronomical heights of the couple seasons prior. Still, even in a down year, Goldy produced 16% more offense than average. Any substantive regression to his career norms should be enough to raise Goldy’s stock back to the level of franchise cornerstone where the Cardinals expected him to be when they acquired him for three players and a pick last winter.
- Unsurprisingly, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wasted no time in naming Jack Flaherty their opening day starter, tweets Goold. Flaherty drove the Cardinals second half push to 91 wins and their first divisional crown since 2015. Who follows Flaherty in the rotation is a more compelling question for those in Cardinals camp this spring. There are no shortage of options, from rotation holdovers like Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas, to former ace Carlos Martinez, to newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim. Adam Wainwright will be somewhere in the rotation after a rejuvenating 14-10 season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/4.36 FIP across 31 starts. The bridge from Flaherty to Wainwright (to Chris Carpenter to Matt Morris) is a tangible reminder of the Cardinals’ institutional success. 2007, Wainright’s first season as a starter, remains the only losing season the Cards have suffered this century (they went 78-84 and finished in third place).
Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation
Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.
President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games.
The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.
Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman.
Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.
Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.
Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).
Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado‘s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.
Cardinals Acquire Matt Liberatore
6:16PM: Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas aren’t expected to be part of the trade, Passan reports. Fowler also isn’t thought to be part of this deal, though he could eventually be on the move elsewhere since the Cardinals have been discussing him in other trade negotiations.
5:37PM: The trade is shaping up as a multi-player blockbuster, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) reports that the Cardinals and Rays are each sending three “pieces” to the other in the deal. “At least two of those pieces are draft picks,” Rosenthal notes, indicating that Competitive Balance Round selections (the only type of draft picks that can be traded) are in play. The Cards are slated to pick in Competitive Balance Round A following the first round of the draft, whereas the Rays draw after the second round in Competitive Balance Round B, so there is roughly a 30-slot gap between the two picks.
4:57PM: The Cardinals have discussed Tyler O’Neill with the Rays and other teams this offseason, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, though there isn’t yet any indication that O’Neill could be involved in the Liberatore trade.
3:53PM: The Cardinals have acquired left-hander Matthew Liberatore from the Rays, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The return headed back to Tampa Bay is expected to include at least one player from the Cards’ Major League roster, and hints at a very notable trade given Liberatore’s status as one of the top prospects in the Rays’ system.
Picked 16th overall in the 2018, Liberatore has gotten off to a solid start in his young career, with a 2.59 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.57 K/BB rate over his first 111 professional innings. That includes a 3.10 ERA over 78 1/3 IP at the A-ball level in 2019, though Liberatore missed a bit of time with a minor back injury.
It was a performance that did nothing to dim Liberatore’s stock in the eyes of evaluators, as the most recent prospect rankings from Baseball America (31st), Baseball Prospectus (37th), MLB.com (41st), and Fangraphs (63rd) all place Liberatore solidly among the sport’s top minor leaguers. MLB Pipeline ranks Liberatore fourth on its list of the best left-handed pitching prospects, with a scouting report touting his potential for as many as three 60-grade pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. In fact, Liberatore’s fastball, changeup, and slider all earned a 55 grade from Pipeline, while his “swing-and-miss hammer” of a curveball gets a 60 grade.
Liberatore is only 20 years old, and at 6’5″ and 200 pounds, might still need to add some bulk to withstand the workload of a Major League starting pitcher. He’ll now immediately become the most promising young arm in the St. Louis farm system, now that the likes of Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson have graduated to the big leagues, and Alex Reyes‘ injury concerns continues to cloud his future. Many of the Cardinals’ current top youngsters are position players, which could be addressed by whatever player or players are sent back to Tampa Bay.
As Passan notes, the Rays have been looking for outfield help, so it’s logical to guess that the outfielder-heavy Cards could be dealing from their logjam on the grass. It’s probably safe to assume that the Rays aren’t taking on Dexter Fowler‘s big contract (unless this is part of a much larger trade), but St. Louis has a wealth of younger outfielders that could be fits for Tampa Bay — Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Jose Martinez, or utilityman Tommy Edman could all be part of this trade. One can’t even rule out top prospect Dylan Carlson, as while the Cardinals have been resistant to offers, it would take a promising young arm like Liberatore to even get the Cards’ attention on a Carlson deal. Still, St. Louis is probably less likely to deal a player who could help their team as early as 2020 in order to land a pitcher who is still at least a couple of years away.
Central Notes: Abreu, Gordon, Bader, Brusdar
Although the White Sox and first baseman Jose Abreu have made their affinity for one another known on many occasions, the club reportedly won’t offer the pending free agent a contract extension this season. Nevertheless, Abreu once again made it clear Monday his mission is to re-sign with the White Sox, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays. Asked if he’s confident a new deal will come together, Abreu declared: “Of course. Like I said before, if the team doesn’t sign me, I’m going to sign myself here.” Chicago’s on its way to its 11th straight season without a playoff berth, and the club has never even finished .500 since Abreu joined the fray entering 2014. But the 32-year-old explained to Van Schouwen the team’s capable of contending as early as 2020, expressing confidence that “the front office is going to make the move that will be the right move for us to move forward and to get to that final phase of this process.”
- As with Chicago and Abreu, there’s a great deal of fondness between the Royals and outfielder Alex Gordon. General manager Dayton Moore stated back in June he “couldn’t imagine” Gordon playing anywhere else. The soon-to-be 36-year-old took a similar tone over the weekend, telling Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports it’s KC or bust in 2020. “I’m not going to play anywhere else,” Gordon said. “If I play, it’s going to be for the Royals.” If Gordon does continue next season, he and the Royals will have to work out a new arrangement, as the team’s sure to decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout.
- The Cardinals will recall center fielder Harrison Bader from Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday and option outfielder Randy Arozarena, per Stu Durando and Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Manager Mike Shildt noted the Cardinals are “super proud” of Bader for the way he handled himself in the wake of his July 29 demotion. Bader had been a staple in St. Louis’ lineup for most of the year until the club sent him down, but he’s coming back as a result of a dominant offensive showing in the minors. Meanwhile, fellow Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill could start a rehab assignment with Memphis later in the week, according to Durando and Hummel. O’Neill has been on the IL since Aug. 3 with a left wrist strain.
- High-end Twins pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol leveled up over the weekend, moving from Double-A Pensacola to Triple-A Rochester. The 20-year-old right-hander is now on the doorstep of the majors, but that doesn’t mean he’ll get there this season, GM Thad Levine told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. On the subject of a possible late-2019 major league call-up for Graterol, Levine said: “That idea may have been a little overstated. We’re not going to force anything. We would only promote someone if we thought he could genuinely contribute, [and that decision] has certainly not been made.” Graterol’s capable of pumping triple-digit heat, which ideally will help make him a prominent piece of the Twins’ bullpen into the fall.
Mozeliak On Cards’ Quiet Deadline
Even as their NL Central rivals landed improvements in the midst of a tight race, the Cardinals came away empty at yesterday’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch broke down the fruitless negotiating effort and the ensuing comments of Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.
The Cards “explored starting pitching first and foremost,” said Mozeliak, with an eye to improving an underwhelming rotation. Presumably, they continued to engage on lefty relievers. There’s no indication whether the team contemplated position-player improvements, though there was certainly an argument to be made for some exploration on that front. The Cards are loaded with options, but the production at second and third base has been sporadic and center field has been a bit of a black hole this season.
While the St. Louis front office is no doubt keenly interested in breaking a four-year string of seasons that ended without postseason appearances, it wasn’t willing to bet the farm on 2019. Per Goold, the club wasn’t willing to give up outfielders Tyler O’Neill or Harrison Bader to rent Zack Wheeler down the stretch, as the Mets demanded. Neither were the Cards amenable to parting with top prospects Dylan Carlson and/or Nolan Gorman in order to pry loose a quality hurler with 2020 contract control, such as Robbie Ray or Mike Minor.
Given those stances, perhaps it’s less than surprising that nothing got done. Gorman and Carlson were obvious targets for other teams to pursue when the Cards came calling on good starters. The club’s other best prospect, catcher Andrew Knizner, is on the MLB roster at present and likely was also off limits. While we had seen indication that the Cardinals were dangling some young outfielders, including O’Neill and the just-promoted Lane Thomas, it seems that those pieces were not available under all circumstances.
Ultimately, the Cardinals did swing two deals with the Dodgers, adding recently designated reliever Zac Rosscup and sending out unwanted infielder Jedd Gyorko. They also claimed southpaw Adalberto Mejia in advance of the deadline. It’s tough to say that any of those acquisitions moved the needle, especially in comparison to the acquisitions of the rival Cubs (Craig Kimbrel, Nicholas Castellanos, David Phelps, Tony Kemp), Brewers (Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black, Jake Faria, Jordan Lyles), and even Reds (Trevor Bauer).
There certainly seemed to be room to improve. There’s an argument to be made that the Cards ought to have been more willing, in particular, to part with some of its young outfielders to make something happen. Then again, the winter St. Louis blockbuster has served to highlight some of the pitfalls in such moves. There will be a need for some of those players next season as well, with others perhaps still representing future trade fodder. And it’s hard to second-guess a team’s internal valuations on players it knows better than anyone might hope to from the outside.
As Mozeliak summed things up: “When you spend seven straight days in a room working on something, you tend to want to see something come out of it. So, there’s a high level of frustration, even for us. But we answer to people and have to be responsible for decisions that come out of it and we just didn’t feel we could get there.”
Cardinals Option Harrison Bader, Promote Lane Thomas
The Cardinals have optioned outfielder Harrison Bader, per the MLB.com transactions page (h/t Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch; Twitter links). Lane Thomas will come up to take over for the struggling 25-year-old, per the Dispatch’s Rick Hummel.
This is a disappointing moment for Bader, who turned in a strong 2018 effort but has fallen off quite a bit this year. Through 260 trips to the plate this season, he’s slashing a meager .195/.309/.339 with six home runs. Bader has actually made more hard contact than he did last year and is identified by Statcast numbers as a positive regression candidate. On the other hand, those figures also suggest his 2018 output was due in some part to good fortune on batted balls.
There’s still long-term value here if the Cards — or another team — believe that Bader can figure things out at the plate. He has boosted his walk rate to 11.2%, helping to offset a lofty 28.1% strikeout rate, but there’s work to be done. Importantly, defensive metrics still love Bader’s glovework. He’s curiously grading poorly on the bases despite maintaining excellent speed, though perhaps that’s just a blip.
Notably, by optioning Bader today, the Cards will keep him shy of reaching a full year of MLB service. He’s sitting at 1.161 years at present, meaning he’s eleven days shy of passing a new threshold.
Thomas had previously popped up in trade rumors. Instead, he’ll be installed — at least temporarily — as a piece of the MLB outfield mix for a club that has ever intention of making a run at the NL Central title. Thomas is capable of lining up at all three outfield spots, making him a flexible piece for the Cards.
The 23-year-old Thomas debuted earlier this season but only received a brief run in a reserve role. He has spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A, where he’s again turning in solid results at the plate. Through 304 plate appearances, the right-handed hitter carries a .268/.352/.460 slash with ten long balls.
Cards Rumors: C-Mart, Wacha, Bumgarner, Outfielders
The Cardinals are reportedly open to trading right-hander Carlos Martinez and outfielder Tyler O’Neill by the July 31 deadline. However, they’re not “aggressively” shopping either of those two or outfielder Harrison Bader, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. On the other hand, they plan to “explore interest” in righty Michael Wacha, according to Goold.
Martinez, the most notable member of the bunch, is someone the Cardinals at least took offers for at last year’s deadline, per Goold. But because Martinez assumed the reins as their closer last month when Jordan Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery, the Redbirds aren’t as willing to consider moving him this season. The former (and possibly future) starter had been eminently effective in a full-time relief role until his past few appearances, having allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks across three frames in three outings this week. He now owns a 3.80 ERA, albeit with a far better 3.18 FIP, in 23 2/3 innings on this season. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has picked up seven saves on nine tries and posted 9.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a superb 64.5 percent groundball rate.
For St. Louis, there’s no imminent threat of losing Martinez, whom the club signed to a five-year, $51MM extension entering the 2017 campaign. He’s controllable through 2023 via two club options, and will play for a reasonable $11.5MM salary in each season through 2021.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals could watch Wacha walk in free agency during the offseason, which helps explain their amenability to parting with him now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak did tell Goold the Cardinals don’t “see anybody on the current roster that we’re looking to move,” but Wacha has fallen from grace this season. The once-promising Wacha has logged a hideous 5.42 ERA/6.15 FIP with 7.27 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 78 innings, and has lost his spot in the Cardinals’ rotation multiple times. Considering the way Wacha has performed in 2019, his $6.35MM salary looks steep.
Thanks in part to Wacha’s struggles, the Cardinals’ starting staff has come up short of expectations thus far. Aside from Dakota Hudson, they don’t have a single hurler with double-digit starts and a sub-4.00 ERA. Even Hudson’s 3.59 ERA is accompanied by a subpar K/BB ratio and a shaky 5.13 FIP. With that in mind, Goold writes that St. Louis has “evaluated” Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner, the top rental starter who could move wind up changing teams before the deadline. However, with the Cardinals on his eight-team no-trade list, Bumgarner would be able to turn down a move to St. Louis.
The Cardinals’ outfield, meantime, may have two long-term building blocks in O’Neill and Bader. Their presences look especially important with Marcell Ozuna set to hit free agency after the season and Jose Martinez not being a viable defensive option in the grass. O’Neill, 24, has been a solid offensive producer since debuting last year, having slashed .275/.314/.502 (115 wRC+) with 14 home runs. He has, however, fanned in a massive percentage of plate appearances (39.2) and drawn walks at only a 4.5 percent clip. It’s also worth noting an impossible-to-sustain .405 bating average on balls in play has buoyed his numbers.
O’Neill won’t even reach arbitration until after 2021, while Bader’s scheduled to start the process at the conclusion of the 2020 season. The 25-year-old Bader was a 3.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season, owing to above-average offense and tremendous defense. While Bader remains a star in the field (8 Defensive Runs Saved, 9.4 Ultimate Zone Rating in center this season), his output with the bat has plummeted. He’s hitting a mere .207/.325/.361 (82 wRC+) with six HRs and five steals in 247 PA.
Although there are causes for concern with regards to O’Neill and Bader, it appears they’ll remain in place through the deadline. But Mozeliak informed Goold, “We don’t know where we need to go to change our team.” No matter what the Cardinals do change by month’s end, they’ll try to stop their playoff drought from reaching four years. Despite a lukewarm 50-47 record, they’re very much in the race, trailing a wild-card spot by half a game and the NL Central-leading Cubs by 3 1/2.
NL Notes: Vargas, Diamondbacks, Cardinals
The Mets plan to stick with Jason Vargas in the rotation despite his struggles, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen said Sunday (link via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). “We’re not going to be making drastic changes to our club after one bad inning of a start where he had a schedule that was derailed from the start of the season,” said Van Wagenen of Vargas, who recorded just one out against the Braves on Saturday. Of course, a move to yank Vargas from the rotation would be based on more than just his most recent outing; the 36-year-old has yielded 10 runs on 14 hits and four walks with three strikeouts in 6 1/3 frames this season. And while he did enjoy a solid second half in 2018, his overall results last year were dismal. As DiComo notes, however, the Mets are lacking in terms of internal depth alternatives, and a run at free-agent Dallas Keuchel still does not appear to be in the cards.
More from the NL to kick off the week…
- Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald chatted with D-backs GM Mike Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye (both former Red Sox execs) about the team’s current standing and unwillingness to plunge into a full-fledged rebuild. “Teams do that to pick at the top of the draft, more for a monetary perspective,” said Sawdaye of the growing trend of aggressive tanking. However, the Diamondbacks knew they’d have a huge bonus pool this year by virtue of qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock, and they were able to land a second Competitive Balance draft selection in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Hazen acknowledged that it’s “cleaner and easier” to declare that a team is either rebuilding or “all-in” on winning, but the Arizona organization is trying to walk the line. Hazen cites the unexpected success of the Athletics and Rays in 2018 as a means of pointing out that even clubs tabbed by projection systems as middle-of-the-pack teams can make strong postseason pushes. Sawdaye voiced a belief that the D-backs inherited a team that had more talent than the Astros or Cubs at the time those teams opted for a full-scale teardown, while Hazen stressed the importance of fostering a “culture of winning” even in times of possible transition. Both execs offer insight and perspective that go against some of the game’s common trends right now, making for an interesting interview that’s well worth a read for fans of any club.
- Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader is currently dealing with what the team hopes is a minor hamstring injury, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Bader was out of the lineup Sunday and is expected to be further evaluated today. The initial prescription for Bader was merely to rest the injury for a full day, but if the pain in his leg lingers today, he could undergo an MRI as well. The 24-year-old Bader, one of the game’s premier defenders in center field, is off to a sluggish .179/.347/.359 start through 50 trips to the plate.
- In a separate piece, Goold notes that righty Carlos Martinez threw a 20-pitch bullpen session — consisting entirely of fastballs — on Saturday and is expected to do so again today. From there, he’ll move to live batting practice (assuming today’s ‘pen session goes well) before the Cardinals make a determination on not only the location of his rehab assignment but also the role in which he’ll pitch on that assignment. The organization is still mulling whether Martinez will pitch as a starter or as a reliever in 2019.
Cardinals Notes: Goldschmidt, Outfield, Bader
The Cardinals, who in the past two seasons alone have jettisoned a near roster’s worth of offensive talent, are still searching for a reliable middle-of-the-order presence, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. On the back of landmark drafts under the direction of former Scouting Directors Jeff Luhnow and the now-imprisoned Chris Correa, St. Louis, by the middle of the decade, found themselves dripping with projected regulars across the diamond. Though a trimming of the surplus was surely in order, the current offensive version of the Senior Circuit’s most distinguished franchise is still left, aside from the ever-reliable bat of corner infielder Matt Carpenter, without its coveted level of thump. Franchise officials, at this juncture, could be lamenting the ’18 dumpings of Tommy Pham (.343/.448/.622 after a midseason trade to the Rays) and Luke Voit (187 wRC+ with the Yankees), but seem to have a number of potential targets in mind as the offseason approaches its zenith.
- The club “has spoken” with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, says Goold, though the 31-year-old might be a disjointed fit on an already-unbalanced roster. The club’s second-best hitter in 2018, by a wide margin, was former minor league journeyman Jose Martinez, whose recent forays in the outfield have been mostly disastrous. Goldschmidt, for his part, hasn’t played a single inning at a position other than first base in his MLB career thus far, and the club’s corner-outfield spots are already manned by high-profile acquisitions in Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom is owed nearly $48MM over the next three seasons. Former top-40 prospect Tyler O’Neill, who showed promise, if an undiscerning eye, last season, is also in the mix, though the club could certainly dangle one (or perhaps two) of the four to make a room for the all-world bat of the six-time All-Star.
- Once the envy of executives across the league, the Redbird farm has thinned considerably in recent seasons, though it’s continued its longstanding tradition of churning out under-the-radar performers. Ben Frederickson, also of the StL Post-Dispatch, offers a wonderful overview of former third-round pick Harrison Bader, who broke out to the tune of 3.5 fWAR on the back of sterling center-field defense this season. Quotes from team president Bill DeWitt III aggressively paint the 24-year-old as an “emerging star,” though caution should certainly reign in the case of the University of Florida product. Bader, after all, did struggle in consecutive AAA stints in 2016 and ’17, and posted just a .251/.317/.378 line against right-handers last season while whiffing in over 31% of his plate appearances.