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Guardians Release Kirk McCarty

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NOVEMBER 17: McCarty has been released, according to the transactions log at MLB.com.

NOVEMBER 15: The Guardians announced a series of roster moves in setting their 40-man roster in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft. In addition to tonight’s pair of trades — Nolan Jones to the Rockies; Carlos Vargas to the D-backs — Cleveland has designated lefties Anthony Gose and Kirk McCarty for assignment. The series of subtractions from the 40-man paves the way for the Guardians to select the contracts of infielder Angel Martinez and lefties Joey Cantillo and Tim Herrin. Cleveland also selected infielder Juan Brito, whom they acquired from Colorado in exchange for Jones. The team’s 40-man roster is at capacity.

It’s been quite the year for McCarty, from a transactions standpoint. Originally called to the Majors as a Covid replacement in April, McCarty was returned to the minors shortly thereafter but formally selected to the 40-man roster the following month. Cleveland designated him for assignment on July 3, after which he was claimed by the Orioles, who designated him for assignment just nine days later and lost him on waivers… back to the Guardians. Beyond that series of moves, McCarty was optioned to the minors on four separate occasions over the course of his roller coaster season.

The 27-year-old McCarty generated decent but unspectacular results at the big league level in his his rookie effort this year, logging a 4.54 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. His 16.4% strikeout rate was well below average, but he turned in a respectable 8.2% walk rate. McCarty has well above-average spin on his fastball and curveball, but he doesn’t throw especially hard or miss many bats, and the 2.63 HR/9 he yielded this season is an obvious red flag. He was solid in Triple-A (3.52 ERA in 65 1/3 innings) and does have multiple minor league option years remaining, so another club in need of some left-handed depth could conceivably take a look.

Gose, 32, was one of baseball’s feel-good stories in recent years. Originally a second-round pick and top prospect as an outfielder, his career stalled out after he was unable to produce much at the plate in the Majors or in the upper minors. Gose, a two-way star in high school who some scouts preferred as a pitcher in the draft, got back on the mound in A-ball as a 26-year-old in 2017 and, after taking several years to refine his command and learn to control his blazing fastball, finally made it back to the big leagues in 2021.

Gose didn’t just return to the Majors last year, though. He tossed 6 2/3 innings out of the Cleveland bullpen and allowed just a run on two hits and two walks with nine strikeouts and a heater that averaged 99.2 mph. It was a small sample, of course, but Gose stormed out of the gates in 2022 with 20 1/3 innings of 3.10 ERA ball and a 31.4% strikeout rate. Walks looked like an issue (14%), but by that point Gose’s big league pitching career consisted of 27 innings of 3.00 ERA ball with 36 strikeouts.

The Yankees pounced on Gose for four runs in his next outing, however, after which he landed on the injured list. The Guardians initially characterized the move as one made out of necessity with a doubleheader looming, but Gose’s absence proved protracted, and more than two months after he was shelved, the team announced Gose had undergone Tommy John surgery. The Sept. 14 date of the procedure all but formally rules Gose out for the 2023 campaign, so it’s no surprise to see the Guardians open his roster spot in this fashion.

Joining the Guardians’ 40-man roster are two of their top 30 prospects — Martinez and Cantillo — as well as a lefty reliever (Herrin) who posted eye-popping numbers in Double-A. Baseball America ranks Martinez 12th in Cleveland’s system and Cantillo 15th. Martinez hit .278/.378/.471 as a 20-year-old between High-A and Double-A this season. Cantillo was limited to just 60 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain this season but made 14 appearances (13 starts) with a 1.93 ERA and 35.5% strikeout rate. Herrin, 26, turned in a 2.01 ERA and 41.6% strikeout rate in 22 1/3 Double-A innings before being bumped to Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.98 ERA and “just” a 30.9% strikeout rate in 47 frames.

Terry Francona, Buck Showalter Win Manager Of The Year Awards

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the results of Manager of the Year voting Tuesday evening. Guardians skipper Terry Francona claimed the award in the American League, while Buck Showalter received the National League honor.

While Francona and Showalter are each veteran managers with decades of experience, they were in rather different situations for 2022. Francona is the longest-tenured active manager with one team, having held the position in Cleveland since the start of the 2013 season. Showalter, on the other hand, took over the job in Queens last winter.

The two clubs were also at dramatically different ends of the payroll spectrum. Francona was tasked with overseeing a young Guardians roster that ranked near the bottom of the league in player payroll. Cleveland didn’t enter the season with particularly strong general expectations — at least among those outside the organization and its fanbase — but the Guardians ran away with the AL Central in September after a tightly-contested race with the Twins and White Sox for the first five months. Cleveland finished the year 92-70 to claim their first division title since 2018.

Showalter inherited a polar opposite of a roster, one with sky-high expectations after an offseason spending spree that brought in a number of stars. The Mets had come up empty with talented teams in the past, failing to reach the playoffs every year from 2017-21. That wasn’t an issue in 2022, as Showalter guided the club to a 101-win season — their first year topping triple-digits since 1988. The season ended on a bit of a sour note, as the Mets were swept in a three-game set by the Braves late in the year to blow a division lead that once had exceeded 10 games. Nevertheless, they still coasted to a Wild Card berth.

The voting in both leagues was fairly tightly contested. In the AL, Francona topped Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde and Seattle’s Scott Servais. The Cleveland skipper earned 17 of 30 first-place votes, while Hyde picked up nine for helping the O’s to a surprising above-.500 finish. Servais got one first-place nod but appeared on 23 ballots overall, while Houston’s Dusty Baker picked up three first-place votes but was on just 13 ballots in some capacity. Aaron Boone (Yankees) and Kevin Cash (Rays) also garnered some support.

Turning to the NL, Showalter tied with the Dodgers’ Dave Roberts with eight first-place votes apiece. He edged out Roberts with 10 second-place nods and appeared on 25 ballots overall. Atlanta’s Brian Snitker was the other finalist, grabbing seven first-place votes. Oli Marmol (Cardinals) and Rob Thomson (Phillies) also got decent support, while San Diego’s Bob Melvin grabbed one third-place vote.

Francona claims the award for the third time in his career. Despite winning two World Series during his time leading the Red Sox, he didn’t claim his first Manager of the Year nod until landing in Cleveland in 2013. He won again in 2018 and adds a third to his resume, becoming the ninth man in history to do so.

Showalter, meanwhile, has remarkably won Manager of the Year four times — each with a different team. He’d previously picked up the nod in 1994 with the Yankees, 2004 with the Rangers and 2014 with the Orioles. Showalter joins Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa as the only four-time winners, and he’s the only one to achieve it with four different organizations.

Full voting breakdown: American League, National League

Rockies Acquire Nolan Jones From Guardians

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The Guardians have traded infielder Nolan Jones to the Rockies for infield prospect Juan Brito, according to an announcement from Cleveland. It’s an out-of-the-blue swap of talented young players.

Jones, a former second-round pick, appeared among Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects each season from 2019-21. He consistently put up quality numbers in the minor leagues, posting some of the game’s highest walk rates to run top-tier on-base marks. Jones struggled a bit during his first crack at Triple-A in 2021 but still entered this year among BA’s top ten Cleveland prospects.

The 24-year-old started the season back at Triple-A, but he performed better in his second go-around at the level. In 248 plate appearances, he put up a .276/.368/.463 line with nine home runs. The Guardians called him up for the first time in July, and he picked up his first 92 big league trips to the plate. Jones hit only .244/.309/.372 while striking out a third of the time in that limited look, but there’s still plenty to be intrigued about in his long-term profile.

Jones owns a .252/.361/.443 mark across 655 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s walked in 13.7% of his trips to the dish there while connecting on 22 home runs and 36 doubles. A lofty 28.4% strikeout rate leads to some questions about his bat-to-ball skills, but the combination of power and plate discipline makes him an intriguing addition for the Rox.

The Philadelphia native came up as a third baseman, although he increasingly saw more action in the corner outfield this year. Prospect evaluators have long suggested he could be an adequate defender at the hot corner, but the position was obviously spoken for long-term in Cleveland by José Ramírez. The Rockies already have a franchise third baseman of their own — albeit not one of Ramírez’s caliber — in Ryan McMahon. With McMahon playing elite defense at the hot corner, Jones will probably factor more immediately into the corner outfield and designated hitter mix. The Rockies have Charlie Blackmon for another year to split time between right field and DH, while Kris Bryant will hopefully stay healthy and lock down left field. C.J. Cron is the presumptive starter at first base, but Colorado can rotate Jones’ left-handed bat into the mix alongside Cron while also keeping Blackmon off his feet more often.

Turning to Cleveland’s end of the swap, they land an interesting lower-level prospect from an improving Colorado farm system. Brito, who recently turned 21, spent the entire 2022 season in Low-A. He hit .286/.407/.470 with 11 home runs through 497 plate appearances, walking in an excellent 15.7% of his trips against a meager 14.3% strikeout percentage. Baseball America only placed the Dominican Republic native 30th on its midseason ranking of the Colorado farm system, but Guardians evaluators are clearly far more bullish on his upside.

Brito has played almost exclusively second base in the minors. He’s not regarded as a particularly impressive defender or athlete, but he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder with an excellent minor league track record. The Guardians have prioritized players with impressive bat-to-ball skills and the ability to play a key defensive position, and Brito certainly fits that mold.

With Brito already eligible for the Rule 5 draft, Cleveland immediately selected him onto the 40-man roster. The Guardians often navigate roster churn around the Rule 5 date as they swap out depth types or players who are becoming more costly via arbitration for further away talent. This is not that kind of move, however. Both players occupy a 40-man spot, and neither is within two years of reaching arbitration. Both can still be optioned to the minor leagues — Jones for one more year, Brito three times. Brito surely won’t factor into the MLB mix right away, but this marks a fascinating swap of unproven young players — one seemingly motivated by each team simply valuing the player they’re bringing in more than the player they’re shipping away, not by contractual provisions or roster reshuffling.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Acquire Carlos Vargas From Guardians

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The D-Backs have acquired reliever Carlos Vargas from the Guardians, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Minor league pitcher Ross Carver has been dealt to Cleveland in return. Cleveland has since formally announced the move.

Vargas, 23, missed the first three-plus months of the season finishing off his rehab from a Tommy John procedure he underwent in April 2021. He’s yet to make his big league debut, and the Guards optioned him to Double-A Akron upon reinstating him from the 60-day IL this summer. The hard-throwing righty struggled through 24 1/3 innings there, pitching to a 4.81 ERA with an unsightly 21-to-12 K/BB ratio.

Cleveland still bumped Vargas to Triple-A for the final few weeks of the season, and the results were night-and-day. Vargas carved up Triple-A opposition to the tune of a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings. After fanning just 19.3% of his opponents in Double-A, he punched out a ridiculous 39% (16 of 41) of the opponents he faced in Triple-A. Scouting reports on Vargas will praise an upper-90s heater that can reach triple digits and an inconsistent slider that has the potential to be a plus offering if all breaks right.

Carver, also 23, split his time between High-A and Double-A in 2022, faring quite well in the former (3.10 ERA, 81 1/3 innings) but getting absolutely tattooed with the latter (9.50 ERA, 38 innings). The former 20th-round pick gives Cleveland a recent draftee (2021, 20th round) with a starter’s repertoire they can hope to develop through through one of the game’s top pitching development factories.

Broadly speaking, however, the move was primarily about opening a 40-man roster spot the Guardians, while the D-backs — in more need of bullpen help than Cleveland — will roll the dice on a power arm with spotty command and some recent injury troubles.

The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:

1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today

The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.

2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening

Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.

3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight

Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.

Julio Rodriguez Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has won the Rookie of the Year award in the American League for 2022, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman finished second in the voting, while Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan checked in third.

This year’s rookie class in the Junior Circuit was remarkable, headlined by Rodríguez and Rutschman. The pair of top prospects both hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster as their Opening Day center fielder, looking to build off their surprising 90-win campaign in 2021. The young outfielder got off to a tough start, thanks in part to a number of questionable strike calls in the early going, but he eventually emerged as the best position player on a good Seattle club.

Over 560 plate appearances, Rodríguez posted a .284/.345/.509 line. He connected on 28 home runs and swiped 25 bases in 32 attempts, one of just four players (Kyle Tucker, Adolis García and Marcus Semien being the others) to reach 25 longballs and steals apiece. Rodríguez was particularly electric in the second half, putting up a .303/.361/.576 line coming out of the All-Star Break to help Seattle cruise to its first postseason appearance in more than two decades.

Rodríguez also impressed on the other side of the ball, starting 130 games and playing 1126 2/3 innings in center field. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast credited him with above-average defense, no small feat for a player whom some prospect evaluators suggested might be a better fit for right field. The 21-year-old looks to have put any questions about his defensive home to bed for the time being.

While Rodríguez is surely thrilled to secure Rookie of the Year honors on its own merits, the selection has a tangible effect on the team as well. The new collective bargaining agreement contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That’s a moot point for Rodríguez, who’d have qualified for a full service year after tallying 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless. He also signed a massive contract extension midseason that overwrites his path to arbitration and free agency.

The second portion of the PPI does come into effect, though. A team that promotes a player for a full service year who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria and entered the year with less than 60 days of MLB service who subsequently finishes top two in ROY balloting (or top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration seasons) earns a bonus draft pick after the first round. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster all year, so they’ll collect an extra pick in the 2023 draft in recognition of his achievements.

Rutschman and Kwan check in as runners-up after very strong years in their own right. Baltimore’s catcher hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs in 470 plate appearances. His second-place finish earns him a full year of service time as well. Kwan doesn’t that get that honor for third place, but he earned a full service year after breaking camp in Cleveland regardless. Rutschman’s former teammate at Oregon State, Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 across 638 plate appearances to help the Guards to a division title.

Rodríguez received 29 of 30 first-place votes, while Rutschman collected the other. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the lone voter to place Rutschman ahead of Rodríguez, explained his thought process in a well-reasoned Twitter thread. Rodríguez was the only player to be named on all 30 ballots. Rutschman was selected on 28 ballots, while Kwan earned 24 combined second or third-place votes. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña and Mariners righty George Kirby also picked up some support.

Full vote breakdown found here.

Guardians’ Chris Antonetti On Shane Bieber, Catchers

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In an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti flatly rejected the idea that Shane Bieber will be a trade candidate this winter.  “We have every intention of trying to contend next year, and trying to win a World Series.  And, Shane Bieber will be a big part of that for us,” Antonetti said.

Naturally, some gamesmanship could be at play here, and the Guards (at least as a matter of due diligence) would consider any serious offer another team might float for Bieber.  Given Cleveland’s history of trading star players as their arbitration costs rise, the Bieber trade speculation won’t really end until he actually does change teams, or unless he signs an extension.  However, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that moving Bieber isn’t on the Guardians’ radar in the near future.

Bieber was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter, and avoided a hearing by working out a $6MM contract for the 2022 season.  The high number reflected Bieber’s early success, which included All-Star appearances in 2019 and 2021, and the AL Cy Young Award during the shortened 2020 season.

The right-hander kept on rolling through 2022, posting a 2.88 over an even 200 innings, with a 48.2% grounder rate, an elite 4.6% walk rate and an above-average 25% strikeout rate.  While that K% was his lowest since 2018, Bieber seemed to trade strikeouts for extra control, changing up his mix of pitches with great success.  Bieber used his curveball a lot less and his cutter a lot more, with both pitches becoming more effective as a result.

Now projected for a healthy raise to $10.7MM in 2023, Bieber’s salary isn’t really onerous for a Guardians team that doesn’t have much committed to its 2023 or longer-term payroll pictures.  Plus, as Antonetti noted, Cleveland wants to compete for a championship, so it is possible ownership might be willing to even stretch the budget a bit to supplement a title run.

Next winter, it is possible things could change.  Bieber’s third and final arbitration year should be worth well over $15MM if he continues this good form, and he is scheduled to reach free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  An extension would lock Bieber up in Cleveland for good, yet the Guardians traditionally tend to only extend players early in their careers (though Jose Ramirez’s extension last spring was a very prominent exception to this rule).

Come next winter or possibly even at midseason if the Guardians fell out of contention, a Bieber trade might seem much more feasible.  Waiting another season to really explore a Bieber deal would also give Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff more time to evaluate Bieber’s replacements — as always, the Guards have a wealth of young arms in the pipeline who have already made their MLB debuts, or are on the verge of debuting.  Within the current rotation, Triston McKenzie also had a nice breakout in 2022 and now looks like a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Antonetti also discussed several other topics during the interview, including the Guardians’ needs behind the plate.  Austin Hedges is set to hit free agency, and “catching is an area where we will continue to explore options,” the PBO said.  “If we can find a way to add some offense and add a bat somewhere throughout the lineup, that’s something we’ll pursue as well.”

As much as the Guardians have been linked to the likes of Oakland’s Sean Murphy in trade rumors, it isn’t necessarily clear that Cleveland will look for an external answer at catcher.  Prospect Bo Naylor had a huge season at Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, resulting in a late-season promotion and his first five big league games.  The Guardians have never been shy about trusting young players in big roles, and this trend could continue given how much they like Naylor.

“We think he’s got a chance to be a really good catcher on all sides of the game,” Antonetti said.  “Not only really talented offensively…he does an extraordinary job of leading the pitching staff.  He’s so motivated to make an impact with the pitchers that he’s kind taken it upon himself to learn Spanish.  And not just the pitches, but actually learn the language so he can build a rapport and relationships with our Spanish-speaking pitchers.”

Cardinals Acquire Jose Fermin From Guardians

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The Cardinals announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired minor league infielder Jose Fermin from the Guardians in exchange for cash. Fermin has been selected to the 40-man roster in St. Louis, the team added. The Cardinals also reinstated righties Alex Reyes and Drew VerHagen from the 60-day injured list, bringing their 40-man roster to a total of 38 players.

Fermin, 24 in March, spent the 2022 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate and batted .215/.336/.322 with just a 13.9% strikeout rate against a 12.7% walk rate. He’s hit just 22 home runs in 415 minor league games and 1687 plate appearances, which underscores the lack of power that scouting reports on Fermin have emphasized. He stole 28 bases in just 105 games as recently as 2019, but Fermin only swiped nine bags in 90 games and 330 plate appearances in Triple-A this year.

While Fermin played plenty of shortstop early in his minor league run with Cleveland, he was deployed exclusively at second base and third base in 2022. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote prior to the 2022 season that Fermin rarely swings and misses but “lacks passable big league physicality and is a better fit at second base than shortstop.”

For the Cardinals, Fermin will give them a right-handed hitter with experience at three infield positions and solid bat-to-ball skills. Fermin would’ve been eligible to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, but St. Louis obviously saw enough in him that they preemptively made a move to acquire him and add him to the 40-man roster. This is the first time Fermin has been selected to a 40-man, so he’ll have a full slate of three minor league option years — assuming he sticks on their roster for that long, anyhow.

The moves to reinstate Reyes and VerHagen were a formality. Reyes missed the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery and has now managed just 145 innings in the Majors since making his debut back in 2016. He’ll be in line to earn a projected $2.8MM in arbitration this winter, and the Cardinals will likely have to weigh non-tendering the once-vaunted prospect.

VerHagen, meanwhile, missed time with shoulder and hip impingements in 2022 and didn’t pitch after being placed on the injured list on July 17. Signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal in March — the first post-lockout, Major League free-agent signing for fans of random MLB trivia — the 32-year-old VerHagen was unable to replicate the success he’d found pitching overseas in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In 21 2/3 innings with the Cardinals, he logged a 6.65 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate against a bloated 13.2% walk rate. He’s owed $3MM next season.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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Baseball’s youngest team won the AL Central, defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and came within a game of advancing to the ALCS.  The future is now for the Guardians, as their new young core has already matured into a contending roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $119MM through 2028
  • Myles Straw, OF: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RP: $16.5MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)

Total 2023 commitments: $19.3MM
Total future commitments: $157.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

2022 might have been the greatest triumph yet for Cleveland’s vaunted player development system.  After an 80-82 record in 2021 and a pretty quiet offseason, it seemed as if the Guardians were poised to take a step back, yet it was clear that the front office had plenty of faith in its young players.  A whopping 17 different Guardians players made their Major League debuts in 2022, ranging from Rookie-of-the-Year contender Steven Kwan, postseason hero Oscar Gonzalez, and rotation regular Konnor Pilkington, to top-100 prospects like Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Tyler Freeman.  These rookies were able to patch roster holes or even fill them outright, while a number of other pre-arb players also stepped up with big seasons.

The Guards were certainly helped by underwhelming performances by the other four AL Central teams, as well as a lot of good fortune in avoiding injuries.  However, Cleveland’s recipe of strong pitching, excellent defense, speed, contact hitting, and station-to-station baseball made the club a handful for anyone.  The only thing lacking was power, as the Guardians finished 29th of 30 teams in home runs (127) and 28th in Isolated Slugging (.129).

With this in mind, it isn’t quite as simple as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti just acquiring a couple of sluggers this winter and calling it a day.  For one, power costs money, and payroll is always a concern in Cleveland.  Roster Resource projects the Guardians for roughly $72.2MM in committed salaries heading into 2023 (including arbitration estimates), and while the club’s spending topped $146MM as recently as 2018, that was understood even at the time to be a temporary splurge.  With the pandemic impacting revenues, Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll in 2021 didn’t even top the $50MM threshold. They bounced back a bit and opened this year a bit shy of $70MM but still didn’t approach franchise-record levels.

In short, don’t expect the Guardians to suddenly become big spenders just because they’re back in contention, or just because David Blitzer became a minority owner of the franchise this past summer.  But, ownership increasing payroll to even the $85MM-$90MM range would certainly help the Guards add talent — or, the front office might have to get creative with how they re-allocate that $72.2MM.

This is why Amed Rosario might find himself a trade candidate.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, Rosario’s projected $9MM arbitration salary could be a little steep for a team that has a wealth of intriguing middle-infield prospects.  The Guardians have certainly shown they’re willing to put their trust into younger players, so if they think any of Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, or Jose Tena are ready for prime time, Rosario may become expendable.

Even in an offseason where Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson will all be hitting free agency, Rosario holds quite a bit of value as a trade chip.  Many teams obviously aren’t willing to give out the nine-figure contracts it will take to sign any of those top shortstops, and would thus have more interest in Rosario even just for one year (since he is set for free agency next winter).  Since Rosario could also theoretically be moved to second base, that only increases his list of potential landing spots.  On paper, the Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Giants, and Orioles are all plausible fits for at least short-term middle infield help.

If Rosario was dealt, Andres Gimenez could potentially slide over to shortstop, or just continue his Gold Glove-winning reign at second base.  Gimenez’s advanced metrics indicate he is likely due for some offensive regression in 2023, but he was so great last year (.297/.377/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals over 557 plate appearances) he’d be a dangerous hitter if he even approaches his 2022 numbers.

Gimenez will have one middle-infield position locked up, so where else could the Guardians add a bat?  Naturally, there isn’t any issue at third base with superstar Jose Ramirez, and the Guards also seem set with Kwan in left field and Josh Naylor at first base/DH.  Naylor hit well in his first season back from major leg surgery, and the Canadian could blossom into even more of a dangerous slugger now that he is further removed from his injury.

Finding another first base/DH type to share the two positions with Naylor seems like the most obvious spot for a new hitter.  The Guardians were hoping Franmil Reyes would fill this role after his 30-homer season in 2021, yet Reyes struggled so badly that Cleveland designated him for assignment in August, allowing the Cubs to claim him on waivers.  A right-handed hitter would pair best with the left-handed hitting Naylor, and depending on how much the Guardians have to spend, a free agent like Jose Abreu would be a very good fit as both a productive bat and a veteran clubhouse leader.  Beyond just the first base position, Trey Mancini and Mitch Haniger can also play the outfield, or the Guards could pivot to more of a DH-only type like J.D. Martinez or Nelson Cruz.

Cleveland could aim to add more pop in the outfield, though the team will have to weigh the cost of adding hitting against possibly decreasing an excellent defensive unit.  Gonzalez may be the weakest link in this regard — he isn’t as accomplished a fielder as Kwan or Myles Straw and he had a very low 3.9% walk rate while benefitting from a .345 BABIP in his rookie season.

Then again, Gonzalez has more offensive upside than Straw, a Gold Glover and Fielding Bible Award-winning center fielder who was one of the game’s worst hitters in 2022.  Of all qualified batters, only Jonathan Schoop had a lower wRC+ than Straw’s 64, as he hit only .221/.291/.273 over 596 PA.  Straw had excellent speed and made plenty of contact, though his .261 BABIP was less a function of bad luck and more about Straw’s near-total lack of hard contact.  Getting even close to league-average offense (as Straw did with his 97 wRC+ in 2021) would make him a very valuable addition to any lineup, which was the Guardians’ logic when they signed him to a five-year extension back in April.

Jones or Will Brennan are on hand for more outfield at-bats, plus George Valera is yet another top-50 prospect who’s not far from his first taste of the majors.  That gives the Guardians some cover if they did float Straw or Gonzalez in trade talks, provided these players weren’t shopped for another outfielder altogether.  Speculatively, Straw could be shopped to a team looking to upgrade its outfield defense, while Gonzalez is the kind of MLB-ready, controllable bat that could appeal to a lot of teams.

Speculatively, Gonzalez could fit as part of a trade package Cleveland might offer to the Athletics in exchange for Sean Murphy.  The Guardians’ interest in Murphy dates back at least to the trade deadline, and while Murphy would be a great addition to many rosters, he’d be a particularly ideal match in Cleveland considering the team’s focus on defense and game-calling from the catcher position.  Not only is Murphy a strong defensive backstop, he is also an accomplished hitter. He’s also controllable through the 2025 season and projected for just a $3.5MM salary next year.

Between center field and catcher, the Guardians were basically playing with only seven lineup spots, given how little Straw and the Austin Hedges/Luke Maile tandem (with a few games from Sandy Leon, Bo Naylor, and Bryan Lavastida) provided at the plate in 2022.  Since Hedges is a free agent and Maile is a non-tender candidate, the catching position represents the cleanest way for the Guards to simply add a better hitter to the mix.  Plus, the younger Naylor brother is an interesting prospect in his own right, so Cleveland might feel it already has an in-house offensive upgrade.

If the Guardians do trust Naylor, they could roll with a Naylor/Maile platoon in 2023, or even re-sign Hedges for platoon duty and either let Maile go or try to retain him on a new minor league contract.  This might be Cleveland’s strategy if other bats were acquired at, say, DH or right field, as the Guards might then feel more comfortable about sticking with defense behind the plate and hoping Naylor could become the latest breakout rookie.

Murphy isn’t the only external option, of course, even though quality bats are rather scarce at the catcher position.  Free agent Willson Contreras will be too expensive, though Christian Vazquez might conceivably fall within their price range.  On the trade front, the A’s and Blue Jays are the top options for available catchers, and the Guardians have enough interesting players in both the farm system and on the MLB roster to perhaps outbid many other catcher-needy teams.

The Guardians could also conceivably trade from their rotation depth, with Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac perhaps expendable at the back of the rotation given how Cleveland has a number of young arms ready to start banking Major League innings.  With an eye towards arbitration costs, it wouldn’t be a shock if one of Cal Quantrill (projected $6MM) or Shane Bieber ($10.7MM) were dealt, though those two are more trusted members of the starting five.

Bieber, naturally, has been included in a lot of trade speculation as his price tag continues to rise.  However, since he is still controlled through the 2024 season, he probably won’t be shopped until the 2023 trade deadline at the absolute earliest, and that would likely only happen if the Guardians fell out of the playoff race.  Pilkington, Cody Morris, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, and top prospect Daniel Espino are among the many young starters who could be rotation options for 2023, yet using those youngsters to replace Bieber’s ace-level production is a taller order than replacing the more modest contributions of Civale or Plesac.

Cleveland’s ability to find and develop pitching provides the team with some rare flexibility in deciding whether or not to trade from its surplus, and it is possible the Guardians might just stand pat this winter, at least in terms of any major deals.  As noted, the Guards enjoyed quite a bit of good health in 2022, so they might want to retain their pitching depth as protection against the injury bug returning with a vengeance.

This depth filters down to the bullpen, as the Guardians could reinforce their already-strong relief corps with some of these pitchers coming up from the minors.  Headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland bullpen was one of baseball’s best last season, and not a lot of tinkering might need to be done.  Though the relievers gained some valuable experience in both the regular season and during the playoffs, it’s still a young bullpen that could do with a veteran arm, similar to the role that Bryan Shaw filled in 2022.  Though Shaw had a disappointing year and was outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the Guards might still pursue a reunion on a minor league contract, given the respect he’s earned as a clubhouse leader to his younger teammates.

Speaking of leadership, it has already been confirmed Terry Francona will be returning for at least one more season as Cleveland’s manager.  Physical problems kept Francona away from the team for big portions of both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, yet the veteran skipper returned to guide his young roster to the ninth winning season of his decade-long run in Cleveland.

With Francona’s health issues potentially heralding the end of his time in the dugout at some point in the not too distant future, he would surely love to capture one more World Series ring (and break another franchise’s title drought) before calling it a career.  The fact that a championship is now a plausible goal is a sign of how well the team has reloaded in just a year’s time, though the Guards will also have to caution against growing pains for their many rookies.  Some canny offseason additions can help protect against any sophomore slumps, and if enough youngsters continue to develop and Ramirez continues to deliver MVP-level production, the Guardians look like they’ll be dangerous again in 2023.

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