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Rays’ Centerfield Situation

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Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot are hard-coded atop the centerfield depth chart for the Tampa Bay Rays, but both players come with question marks.

Despite Kiermaier’s statesman status as the longest-tenured Ray, the club has taken an aggressive approach to finding players capable of roaming the grass in center. He remains a defensive stud, but his health is perpetually in question and his offense has slipped over the past two seasons. His two-year slash line checks in at just .223/.280/.386 across 847 plate appearances. Despite roughly 21% less offensive production than average (79 wRC+),  Kiermaier’s A-1 defensive abilities and plus baserunning skills maintain his viability as a starter. Margot fits the same profile, but five years younger and he bats from the right side.

The Rays know what they like, apparently, because they are continuing to experiment with  power-shy Lucius Fox in centerfield, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Fox has been an infielder for most of his career, primarily at shortstop, though he’s gotten looks at second and third as well. Fox is a tremendous speedster, making him a fit for center from a raw tools standpoint, but he has yet to log any professional time in the outfield. It hasn’t clicked yet for Fox offensively with a .244/.337/.325 line across four seasons in the minor leagues.

Before acquiring Margot, the Rays also picked up Randy Arozarena in the Matthew Liberatore trade. Arozarena now seems likely to start the year in Triple-A, but he’s another option for center. He also happens to be coming off a monster year in Triple-A, where he hit .358/.435/.593 in 64 games after earning a promotion from Double-A. He excelled in a small-sample 19 games with the Cardinals at the end of the year, making their playoff roster as a speed option off the bench. Purely from a numbers standpoint, Arozarena could have the highest-ceiling of all their current options.

The Rays clearly prefer a gold glove roving-type in centerfield, but Austin Meadows could also fill in there in a pinch. It is telling, however, that he has only logged 13 innings in center since being acquired from the Pirates.

Rays Designate Matt Duffy For Assignment

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The Rays have designated third baseman Matt Duffy for assignment and selected the contracts of infielders Vidal Brujan, Jake Cronenworth, Kevin Padlo and Lucius Fox as well as catcher Ronaldo Hernandez. Tampa Bay also traded right-hander Jose De Leon to the Reds in exchange for cash or a player to be named later earlier tonight.

Acquired in the 2016 trade that sent Matt Moore to the Giants, Duffy was expected to be a focal point of the Tampa Bay infield for several years. He’d batted .295/.334/.428 over the life of 149 games during the 2015 season, was considered a premium defender and came to the Rays with another four-plus seasons of team control.

But a series of lower-half injuries — Achilles, foot and hamstring — all limited Duffy considerably over the next three seasons, with the Achilles injury proving to require surgery. Duffy only played 199 games and totaled 809 plate appearances across parts of four seasons in the Rays organization. He’d been projected to receive a $2.9MM salary in arbitration (per MLB contributor Matt Swartz), and the Rays weren’t comfortable with that number, it seems.

Brujan is the most highly regarded prospect of those protected today, ranking as a consensus top 100 prospect and posting a combined .277/.346/.389 batting line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A as a 21-year-old. Each of Hernandez (No. 7), Cronenworth (No. 17) and Fox (No. 19) ranked inside the Rays’ top 30 at MLB.com. Fox, notably, came to the Rays in the same 2016 trade as Duffy. The 23-year-old Padlo was acquired along with Corey Dickerson in the trade that sent German Marquez to the Rockies, and he posted a robust .265/.389/.538 line between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019.

International Notes: Bahamas, Japan, Korea

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With not much likely to happen in the way of U.S. baseball transactions today, we’ll turn an eye to some locations overseas…

  • The quality of talent in Bahamian baseball is on the rise, writes MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. To date, only six players from the Bahamas have played in the major leagues, including Antoan Richardson, the player who famously crossed the plate for the walk-off run Derek Jeter drove in during his final MLB at-bat. However, as many as fifteen players across MiLB’s 30 farm systems come from the Bahamas. Notably, Kristian Robinson currently ranks as the Diamondbacks’ 12th-best prospect, while Trent Deveaux and D’Shawn Knowles are among the Angels’ top 30 minor-leaguers. Lucius Fox, another Bahamian native (and a former $6MM international signing by the Giants), batted .326 in the Arizona Fall League and projects to open the 2019 season with the Rays’ Double-A Affiliate. Perhaps the most intriguing name on the list of Bahamian prospects is Jazz Chisholm, who’s ranked as the Diamondbacks’ third-best farmhand by MLB Pipeline.
  • Kazuto Yamazaki of Baseball Prospectus suggests that a “wave” of Nippon Professional Baseball talent could make its way to MLB next year, and lists their names in a tweet. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Shogo Akiyama is reportedly set for international free agency, while Takahiro Norimoto, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Ryosuke Kikuchi are all probable candidates to be made available through NPB’s posting system. Japan, of course, as produced plenty of high-end MLB talent in recent seasons, including Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani. Yusei Kikuchi, who was just posted earlier this month, is the NPB’s most interesting player to make the jump to MLB this winter.
  • Per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, a longtime Astros scout has taken a job with a Korean Baseball Organization team. Aaron Tassano, who’s also done legwork for the Cubs and Rays, is now the scouting coordinator for the KBO’s Samsung Lions, for whom he’ll now be trying to pluck talent from MLB farm systems. Drellich’s piece compiles some interesting quotes from Tassano that help form a picture of how KBO teams might make their pitches to certain MLB players and their agents.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Red Sox, Girardi, Fox

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The Yankees’ aggressive approach to their rebuild contrasts with the path the Red Sox once took, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. This summer, the Yankees have traded veterans and acquired prospects in return, even a number of prospects who aren’t nearly ready for the big leagues. The Red Sox were in a similar position two years ago but took a different approach, dealing Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes (who they then sent to the Tigers for Rick Porcello) and John Lackey for veterans Allen Craig and Joe Kelly. (They did deal Andrew Miller for a prospect, Eduardo Rodriguez.) Of course, the Red Sox had a stronger core of young talent than the Yankees did at the time of each team’s series of trades — the Sox’ recent resurgence is due in large part to young talents like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley who were already in their system. Here’s more from the AL East.

  • Joe Girardi’s experience with the 2006 Marlins will be helpful in dealing with the Yankees’ increasingly young roster, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Girardi won the NL Manager of the Year award in ’06 for his work with very young players like Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Dontrelle Willis, Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hermida. The Yankees recently jettisoned a series of veterans and now have youngsters like Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino and Luis Cessa on their roster, and they’ll likely add more young talents, such as Clint Frazier, over the next year or so. (Austin and Judge, by the way, each homered in their first big-league plate appearances today.) Girardi says he doesn’t mind having so many young players on the roster together. “For young players, I think it is probably easier to do it in a group,” he says. “Many times they have been through struggles together before in the minors. More important, when one young player struggles in the majors, he can feel alone and singled out among veterans.”
  • The Rays and Giants have resolved their issue concerning infield prospect Lucius Fox’s injury status, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays acquired Fox two weeks ago in the Matt Moore deal, but Fox ended up having a bone bruise in his foot that would cost him the rest of the minor league season. The Rays had initially hoped to receive additional compensation from the Giants as a result, but the two sides have now agreed that the Rays will not receive such compensation, since Fox’s foot issue had not yet been determined to be an injury.

Rays May Seek Compensation For Lucius Fox Injury

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After weeks of build-up, the Rays shipped lefty Matt Moore to the Giants at the trade deadline for a package that included young infield prospect Lucius Fox. As it turns out, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Fox was dinged up at the time of the trade — which may lead Tampa Bay to seek added compensation from their trade partner.

The 19-year-old is said to have been playing through a bruised foot that was not disclosed to the Rays. While not a significant problem, it may prevent Fox from returning to action before the end of the minor league campaign. That wouldn’t seem to be a major long-term issue, but could take away some valuable developmental opportunities heading into the offseason.

The other two pieces of the pact — infielder Matt Duffy and minor league righty Michael Santos — were both on the DL at the time of the deal, with known injuries. But Fox’s malady was apparently not accounted for in striking the agreement.

It’s important to note that there’s no suggestion that Fox would be sent back to the Giants, who only signed him last summer; to the contrary, Topkin says that’s not on the table. For the Rays to achieve any recompense, they’ll have to “work through MLB,” according to the report.

Fox, a switch-hitting Bahamian shortstop, has not been overly impressive in game action in his brief professional career. He owns only a .207/.305/.277 slash over 331 plate appearances in the Sally League. That didn’t stop the Rays from ascribing rather significant value to him, though, and he certainly comes with an impressive prospect pedigree after receiving a $6MM bonus last year as an amateur.

Further Details On Eddy Julio Martinez’s Deal With Cubs

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Cuban center fielder Eddy Julio Martinez’s $3MM signing bonus from the Cubs has generated quite a bit of controversy, as reports prior to that signing indicated that he’d reached a $2.5MM deal with the Giants. San Francisco GM Bobby Evans had acknowledged the agreement, but Martinez soon after the fact was said no longer to be signing with the Giants.

Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle sheds some light on the scenario. As has been previously reported, Martinez hired U.S.-based agents at the Beverly Hills Sports Council to represent him, but he also was already employing local agents (or “buscones”) from the Dominican Republic — at least two more, per Schulman. Martinez’s family hired BHSC to conclude negotiations once his buscones had agreed to a deal with a team.

The Giants received a signed offer sheet from Martinez’s agents at BHSC, and the story was picked up by the media, and the Giants, according to Schulman, believed that the Cubs saw the report and upped their offer to Martinez’s buscones at the last minute. A source tells Schulman that when the Giants met with Martinez’s buscones to collect a signature from Martinez himself in the Dominican Republic, San Francisco was informed that Martinez would not be signing after all.

Schulman writes that those familiar with the Cubs’ side of the story reject the notion of upping their offer based on media reports, saying the Cubs had been speaking to Martinez’s buscones for quite some time, and the buscones stayed in contact with Chicago after BHSC took over talks with the Giants. In the end, Major League Baseball concluded that the player’s signature was final, as opposed to an offer sheet signed by Martinez’s U.S. agents. The league also cleared the Cubs of any wrongdoing in the scenario.

While the entire situation undoubtedly seems shady from the outside, it’s not unprecedented. The Giants themselves even benefited from a similar situation this year, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (links to Twitter). San Francisco’s top international signing was Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox, who received a $6MM signing bonus (which cost the Giants $12MM after luxury tax considerations). However, the Dodgers believed they had a deal with Fox right up until the international signing period kicked off on July 2 and were “stunned” to learn that he would instead sign with the Giants.

Per Sanchez, Fox’s father played a large role in the decision to sign with the Giants over the Dodgers, and Martinez’s father was involved in the Giants/Cubs situation as well. Schulman hears that the Giants acquired Fox’s signature by sending a team representative to his 18th birthday party.

Evans referred to the international prospect scene as the “wild wild West” when speaking to Schulman about the situation, adding: “Without an international draft, a player remains an international free agent until he signs a contract. That’s why, when deals get reported early, it’s not an advantage to the club making the deal.”

Latest On Eddy Julio Martinez

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Top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez remains unsigned a week after the beginning of the July 2 international signing period, but the Dodgers and Giants still lead the race to sign him, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. Both teams have workouts scheduled for Martinez in the coming week.

The Cubs, White Sox, Rangers and Astros also have shown significant interest. Sanchez points out, though, that the Dodgers, Giants and maybe the Cubs have the edge, because Martinez’s bonus, likely to be eight figures, will incur maximum penalties for the team that signs him, including the inability to sign any player for more than $300K in either of the next two international signing periods. The Dodgers and Giants are already on pace to incur those penalties — the Dodgers’ expensive current class includes $16MM signee Yadier Alvarez, while the Giants’ includes $6MM signee Lucius Fox. The Cubs appear likely to incur maximum penalties as well. The White Sox, Rangers and Astros have not incurred such penalties, so they appear to have at least some incentive not to sign Martinez.

MLB.com ranks Martinez the No. 1 prospect available this signing period, comparing the 20-year-old to Andruw Jones and praising his power, baserunning and defense. Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription only) is less bullish, suggesting Martinez’s power leads more to doubles than home runs and noting that not all scouts believe he’ll stick as a starter in center field.

Giants To Sign Lucius Fox

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10:10am: When the deal is official, it will be for $6MM, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter.

8:34am: The Giants have agreed to sign shortstop Lucius Fox to an approximately $6.5MM bonus, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Fox, who’ll officially sign out of the Bahamas, entered the July 2 period as a consensus top-five prospect.

Fox had been said to be a Dodgers target, but news emerged yesterday that he was likely heading to their NL West rivals. He was a consensus top-five available player, with Sanchez and Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel placing him third and Ben Badler of Baseball America slotting Fox in the fourth spot.

This signings demonstrates some of the interesting interplay between the draft and international market. Fox is a native of the Bahamas, but had been playing high school ball in Florida. But he was successfully able to sign as an international free agent after returning to the Bahamas and winning a petition with Major League Baseball. That gave the MVP Sports Group client a chance to cash in on a much bigger bonus than he likely would have achieved through the draft.

Fox is said to be an excellent athlete, and he offers a high-contact bat — though he lacks power. He could be a quality up-the-middle defender, per Badler (subscription link), who says there’s a possibility that Fox will end up in center. McDaniel notes that Fox could also play second, but may also have a chance at sticking at his natural shortstop and will likely begin his professional career there.

San Francisco had just $2,130,900 in available pool capacity coming into the day, per Baseball America, meaning that it will owe a significant penalty fee on top of the dollars owed to Fox. And the Giants will be among those teams that is heavily restricted from major spending (bonuses of $300K or more) over the next two signing periods.

2015-16 International Signing Period Now Open

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Today marks the opening of the 2015-16 international signing period, during which so-called “July 2” prospects can begin inking deals with MLB clubs. Every MLB team has been allocated a series of bonus slots, all of which may be traded, with certain restrictions. Baseball America provides a tally of each team’s total available pool this year. Clubs that spend over their allotment face escalating penalties, ranging from 100% taxes on overages to a two-year ban on $300K+ international bonuses (for going over 15% above the total allocation). This year, the team with the top overall pool allocation — the Diamondbacks ($5,393,900) — is ineligible to spend more than that amount on any single player, and is expected to deal away some of its capacity since it cannot put it to full use. Likewise, the Angels, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees face that limitation due to budget-busting deals in the 2014-15 July 2 period. And numerous additional clubs are expected to incur future signing limitations in the coming signing period. While most of the players subject to the signing rules are a long ways away from the big leagues, there are undoubtedly impact players among them — some of whom could come up in trade talks long before they’re close to the majors.

Here’s the latest on the market, which will gear up quickly, as well as some key resources to get acquainted with:

  • As has been widely expected — and as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reported several months back — the Dodgers are set to sign Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez to a $16MM bonus, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (Twitter links). Passan does caution that it’s best to wait until Alvarez formally signs to declare his market closed. Los Angeles has just over $2MM in spending capacity, meaning that it would start off with a $14MM overage tax on its bill and take on a two-year signing ban for adding Alvarez alone.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez just provided one major market shift, reporting that the Giants appear to be in the lead for shortstop Lucius Fox, who landed third overall on Sanchez’s list of the thirty best international prospects available on the market.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides his final top-thirty prospect list, with detailed scouting reports on all those players ranked as well as notes on the teams favored to sign them. He also breaks down each MLB team’s expected overall approach heading into July 2.
  • Likewise, McDaniel has produced his final pre-signing board, which also includes his own assessments of many of the most highly-regarded names and projections of their landing spots. While Badler rates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. first overall, McDaniel places him fourth, giving the top spot to the aforementioned Alvarez.

Giants The New Favorites To Sign Bahamian Shortstop Lucius Fox

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Though the industry expectation has long been that the Dodgers would reel in highly coveted international shortstop Lucius Fox, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez now reports (via Twitter) that the division-rival Giants have leapfrogged the Dodgers as the favorites to land Fox when tomorrow’s signing period kicks off. In fact, according to Sanchez, the Dodgers are no longer even in the race to sign Fox.

Fox, a native of the Bahamas, moved to the United States and attended American Heritage High School in Florida. However, the 18-year-old recently moved back to the Bahamas and petitioned with Major League Baseball to be an international free agent as opposed being subject to the draft. The league approved his request and declared Fox a free agent, making the MVP Sports Group client eligible to sign as an international free agent, beginning tomorrow.

Sanchez ranks Fox third among this year’s class of international prospects — a ranking with which Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel agrees. Ben Badler of Baseball America recently ranked Fox as the No. 4 prospect in this year’s international class. Fox is projected by McDaniel to land a $6MM signing bonus, although it’s certainly possible that the change in likeliest landing spot has come as a result of an increase in the Giants’ willingness to spend.

In Sanchez’s free scouting report, he notes that Fox is considered by some to be a five-tool player and the best athlete in the class. A switch-hitter, Fox has a line-drive stroke and has a knack for putting the ball in play, per Sanchez. Badler notes in his own scouting report (subscription required and highly recommended) that some scouts feel he’ll move to center field. He adds that Fox has little power, but calls him a plus-plus runner with a chance to hit at the top of a big league lineup. McDaniel feels that second base is a possibility as well, but says he should start his career at shortstop and has a real chance to be a regular contributor at any of the three up-the-middle position

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