Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

The Most Notable Remaining Free Agents

By | at

We’re now a week into the regular season and most of the attention amongst clubs and fans is on the games themselves. It’s a quiet time of year from a hot stove perspective. The offseason is finished and it’s far too early for teams to kick the tires on meaningful trades. Some extension talks might trickle into the season but otherwise, transactions this time of year typically take the form of waiver claims and internal prospect promotions.

Even at a relatively quiet portion of the season, there remain a handful of notable players on the free agent market. Gary Sánchez just came off the board on a minor league deal last week, for instance. Which other players — many of whom are late-career former stars — could still find interest as depth options, particularly if they’re amenable to a minor league contract?

Miguel Sanó

Sanó had a disastrous 2022 season. Right knee troubles kept him to 20 games and 71 plate appearances, in which he hit .083/.211/.133 with only one home run. That ended his time with the Twins, who made the obvious call to buy him out of a club option, but he’s only a year removed from hitting 30 homers. Sanó has topped 25 longballs on four occasions in his career. He won’t turn 30 until next month, making him one of the younger players who didn’t sign over the offseason. Sanó reportedly held a showcase for scouts in early February but there was no publicly reported interest from any teams thereafter.

Chris Archer

Like Sanó, Archer spent the 2022 season in Minnesota but was bought out at year’s end. He tossed 102 2/3 innings across 25 outings, posting a 4.56 ERA with a modest 19.2% strikeout rate and an elevated 11% walk percentage. It was the most hittable Archer has been in his career, but he still averaged 93 MPH on his four-seam and 88.7 MPH on his slider. He’s clearly not the upper mid-rotation arm he was when he made two All-Star games during his time with the Rays, but he’s probably the top unsigned starting pitcher. Archer hasn’t been substantively linked to any team since being cut loose by Minnesota in November. Last month, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that Archer had conducted a showcase for teams, though it isn’t clear when that workout occurred.

Darin Ruf

Released by the Mets earlier this week, Ruf is a right-handed hitter who has typically been an effective platoon first base/corner outfield option of late. He mashed at a .271/.385/.519 clip two years ago. At last summer’s deadline, he was carrying a .216/.328/.373 line over 90 games for the Giants. New York acquired him for a four-player package including J.D. Davis and Thomas Szapucki. Ruf’s production cratered in Queens but he’s not far removed from being a well-regarded offensive player.

Stephen Piscotty

Piscotty has tallied over 2800 MLB plate appearances split between the Cardinals and A’s. An above-average hitter through his first four seasons, he’s struggled significantly in the last four years. Piscotty was released by Oakland last summer and didn’t return to the majors after signing a minor league deal with the Reds. He caught on with the Giants and collected eight hits in 25 at-bats (.320/.370/.440) but didn’t land a job out of camp. San Francisco granted him his release on Opening Day.

Zack Britton

Britton was arguably the sport’s most dominant reliever during his halcyon days in Baltimore. He remained an elite ground-ball artist for much of his time with the Yankees, excelling in high-leverage innings through 2020. Poor health has intervened in the last two years. Britton spent time on the injured list with elbow concerns in 2021, struggling when able to take the mound. He eventually required Tommy John surgery, which wiped out virtually all of the ’22 season. Britton returned at the tail end of the season but couldn’t find the strike zone and was shut back down. He’s thrown multiple showcases in recent months.

Ken Giles

Much of what applies to Britton is also true of Giles. They’re different pitchers stylistically — Giles is a right-hander whose best days were fueled by huge strikeout tallies instead of grounders — but he’s also a formerly elite reliever who has fallen on hard times from a health perspective. Giles also required Tommy John surgery. His procedure came late in 2020 and cost him all of the ’21 campaign. He returned to the majors with the Mariners last summer and was let go after five appearances. Giles also worked out for clubs late in the offseason but has yet to put pen to paper.

Corey Knebel

Continuing with the run on relievers, Knebel is a former All-Star closer in his own right. He wasn’t as dominant as either Britton or Giles at his peak, and his career has frequently been interrupted by injury. Knebel was very productive as recently as 2021, when he posted a 2.45 ERA in 25 2/3 innings for the Dodgers. That earned him a $10MM deal with the Phillies, which was sidetracked by shoulder problems. He finished the year on the injured list after tearing his shoulder capsule.

Leury García

García spent a decade with the White Sox in a utility capacity. Never much of an offensive threat, he nevertheless endeared himself to multiple coaching staffs based on his defensive flexibility. García signed a surprising three-year deal with Chicago over the 2021-22 offseason. He had a dreadful ’22 campaign and was off to a rough start in Spring Training. The White Sox cut bait in spite of the two remaining years on his contract. García’s an affordable utility option elsewhere.

Mike Minor

Minor made 19 starts for the Reds last season, allowing a 6.06 ERA. He was hampered by shoulder issues at times and struggled significantly with the home run ball. Minor has allowed more than five earned runs per nine innings for three consecutive seasons, though his strikeout and walk rates were solid up until 2022. He held a showcase in February and drew some reported attention from the Cubs last month.

Dallas Keuchel

A former Cy Young winner who was effective for the White Sox during the shortened 2020 season, Keuchel has been hit hard over the past couple years. He played for each of Chicago, Arizona and Texas last season and was tagged for a 9.20 ERA across 14 starts. Keuchel was excellent over four Triple-A outings in the Ranger organization. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported a couple weeks ago that the Phillies had expressed loose interest in the two-time All-Star, though Philadelphia apparently didn’t put a formal minor league offer on the table.

Others of note: Archie Bradley, Kole Calhoun, Robinson Canó, Kyle Crick, Didi Gregorius, Michael Pineda, Garrett Richards, Aníbal Sánchez, Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Liberatore, Soderstrom, Naylor, Silseth

By | at

It feels good to breathe again – by which I mean identify players to write about based upon who is tearing up minor league ball. While there hasn’t been much action yet, we have many big-name prospects appearing in Triple-A boxscores. Catchers feature prominently this week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 22, 2B/SS, ATL (AAA)
16 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .417/.563/1.083

One of the top performers of Opening Weekend, Grissom seeks to embarrass the Braves for choosing Orlando Arcia and Ehire Adrianza over him. This is his first exposure to Triple-A after spending most of 2022 in High-A and the Majors. The extra taste of upper-minors action could be designed to avoid a developmental setback related to facing Major League pitching. Grissom appeared overexposed late last season once scouting reports were refined. There are still questions about his shortstop defense – questions that should be answered during the course of 2023.

Matthew Liberatore, 23, SP, STL (AAA)
5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.00 ERA

Of the prospect pitchers in Triple-A, Liberatore posted the best 2023 debut. He allowed six baserunners in five innings of work with seven strikeouts. Liberatore is a complicated player to scout. His individual pitches rate well, especially a visually filthy curve ball. The issue is his curve doesn’t tunnel with any of his other offerings, making it identifiable out of the hand. Last season, Liberatore worked to a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.97 ERA in 34.2 Major League innings.

Tyler Soderstrom, 21, C/1B, OAK (AAA)
10 PA, 1 HR, .556/.600/1.222

A first-round pick from the wonky 2020 draft, Soderstrom surged through the minors last season. His bat is his calling card. He’s particularly adept at producing high exit velocities at an ideal launch angle. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired. While he could conceivably stick at catcher with several more years of hard work, his bat is nearly Major League ready and should play at first base. For that reason, as well as the presence of Shea Langeliers, Soderstrom is widely expected to switch to the cold corner on a more permanent basis this season.

Bo Naylor, 23, C, CLE (AAA)
15 PA, 2 HR, .385/.467/.923

Naylor is coming off a huge rebound season in the minors with an aim toward building upon his reputation as a power-hitting backstop. He has above-average speed for a catcher and could potentially move off the position over the long haul. His defensive capability is viewed as below average at this time. For now, the Guardians have rostered a trio of catchers known mainly for their defense. Like Soderstrom, Naylor’s bat is his carrying trait. He is a discipline-forward slugger whose high rate of contact is offset by an unwillingness to swing at pitches he can’t barrel. The result is a high strikeout rate despite a low swinging strike rate.

Chase Silseth, 23, SP, LAA (AAA)
5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.00

Silseth popped up as a standout in Double-A early last season. The pitching-needy Angels brought him directly to the Majors where he posted a 6.59 ERA (4.24 xFIP) in 28.2 innings. Silseth has a five-pitch repertoire. I’ve received mixed notes on his command. While we know he doesn’t issue many free passes, that could be because his stuff plays in the zone against minor league hitters. His best offering is a splitter. Silseth himself blamed the splitter for his poor performance in the Majors, noting that he needed the pitch to be on to succeed. Splitter consistency is a difficult trait to develop, especially for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he’s inconsistent as he loses and regains feel for his top weapon.

Three More

Matt Mervis, CHC (25): Mervis is an odd prospect in that he continues to torch the ball, yet scouts doubt his ability to hold a regular role in the Majors. He has a 1.167 OPS through 15 plate appearances. We should see him tested against Major League pitching before the calendar flips to summer.

Brett Baty, NYM (24): Baty’s strong spring continued into Triple-A. He has two home runs, a stolen base, and a 1.257 OPS through 15 plate appearances. Mets fans on social media are eager to see Baty oust Eduardo Escobar who is currently 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts.

Connor Norby, BAL (22): The Orioles’ impending glut of middle infielders includes Norby. The second baseman consistently outperforms his modest scouting grades. Bear in mind, the Orioles’ minor league venues are far friendlier to right-handed batters than Camden Yards. Norby strikes me as an obvious trade candidate later this summer.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

By | at

It was an offseason of huge roster turnover for the Red Sox, as several familiar faces departed and a batch of new ones were brought in to replace them. But the biggest splash of the winter was signing their star third baseman to a massive extension that will likely keep him in Boston for the rest of his career.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $72.15MM
Total spending: $196.425MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

This millennium has been a rollercoaster ride for the Red Sox, who’ve won four World Series titles but also finished last in the AL East five times. That’s been true in recent years as well. After that fourth title in 2018, ownership seemed determined to cut payroll, which eventually led to Mookie Betts and David Price getting traded to the Dodgers. That preceded one of those last place finishes in 2020. Though the club surprised with a postseason berth in 2021, they were back down in the basement in 2022.

It seemed possible that an offseason of big changes was in store after that disappointing campaign. A decent chunk of the roster was headed for free agency, with the rotation set to lose Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill. Slugger J.D. Martinez was also on the verge of departing after five years in Boston. But the most notable potential loss was Xander Bogaerts, who had been the club’s shortstop for the previous decade, helping them win two championships and emerging as one of the better players in the league.

Bogaerts had already agreed to one extension with the Sox, back in April of 2019, a six-year, $120MM deal that ran through 2025. However, it contained an opt-out provision for the shortstop after 2022, at which point he would have three years and $60MM remaining on it. Given his tremendous talent, he would easily be able to top that on the open market, making the decision to opt out an easy one. The club reportedly made a cursory attempt to extend Bogaerts by adding one year and $30MM to his existing deal last spring, but that still didn’t come close to his true worth.

Bogaerts triggered his opt-out, becoming a free agent and part of the “Big Four” shortstops alongside Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. MLBTR predicted Bogaerts could secure $189MM over seven years, more than double the four years and $90MM the Red Sox were effectively offering with that extension. Bogaerts proved to be quite popular, garnering interest from teams like the Cubs, Twins, Blue Jays and others. The Red Sox apparently made an effort to bring him back, but he ultimately signed with the Padres for $280MM over 11 years, blowing past what he left on the table in Boston and most predictions. It was also well beyond the last ditch effort of the Red Sox, which was reportedly in the $160MM range.

This left many of the club’s fans in a worrisome position. They had now watched two superstars depart in a short amount of time, with the Betts trade and now Bogaerts. On top of that, a third domino seemed ready to fall in the not-too-distant future, as Rafael Devers was slated for free agency after 2023. Given the way things played out with the first two players, it would have been fair to dread that the same would play out again with the third baseman. But the Sox didn’t want that to happen, so they made sure to lock Devers up, eventually signing him to a massive extension that runs through 2033. The two sides had already agreed to an arbitration-avoiding contract for 2023, so this technically added ten more years and $313.5MM, one of the largest contracts in MLB history. Devers will turn 37 just as that contract is winding down, so it’s entirely possible that he eventually spends his entire career in Boston.

While those Bogaerts and Devers storylines were playing out, the Sox were very busy elsewhere on the roster. They made another meaningful splash by adding NPB star Masataka Yoshida. The club is evidently quite enamored of the outfielder, as their contract went well beyond most projections and led to criticism after the final numbers were revealed. The $90MM guarantee also results in a $15.375MM posting free to the Orix Buffaloes, bringing Boston’s total commitment to $105.375MM. There’s little doubting that Yoshida can hit, as he produced a .326/.419/.538 batting line during his time in Japan. But there are questions about whether his contact-over-power style will play in North America. His defense is also a weak point, as he only played 39 games in the outfield last year, spending the rest as the designated hitter. Fenway Park is perhaps a good landing spot for him, given the small range in front of the Green Monster in left, but it’s still a gamble.

The Sox clearly felt is was necessary to bolster a lineup that had lost both Bogaerts and Martinez. Yoshida will hopefully help some, but they also brought in Justin Turner. Since Martinez signed with the Dodgers, him and Turner have effectively swapped places. For the Sox, they’re getting a player with a bit more versatility since Martinez has been taking the field less and less, serving as designated hitter only in 2022. Turner will likely be in that role a lot, but he can at least take a corner infield spot on occasion. However, he’s also three years older and is coming off an inconsistent season where he slumped at the beginning but finished on a hot streak.

The rotation also needed addressing, with the aforementioned losses of Eovaldi, Hill and Wacha. The Sox did make one move to cover for those losses, bringing in Corey Kluber on a modest one-year, $10MM deal plus incentives. The two-time Cy Young winner lost most of 2019 and 2020 due to injuries but has been healthier of late. He made 16 starts for the Yankees in 2021 and then 31 for the Rays last year. His 4.34 ERA wasn’t exactly a match for his previous career highs, though he showed he can pitch well enough in the “crafty veteran” phase of his career now that his previous power arsenal is diminished.

That turned out to be the lone move to address the rotation, as it seems the Sox will largely rely on in-house improvements there. A return to form from Chris Sale would be a big one, as he’s hardly pitched over the past three years due to various injuries. It’s a similar situation for James Paxton, who didn’t pitch at all last year and triggered a player option to stick in Boston for 2023. He’s already on the injured list this year due to a hamstring strain but will hopefully be back before too long. It’s also hoped that younger pitchers can take steps forward. Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have each done some starting and some bullpen work but neither has been fully established as a proper big league starter. 2023 figures to be a test case for both, though Whitlock is on the injured list for now while still ramping up from last year’s hip surgery. Brayan Bello was a highly-touted prospect who made his debut last year. His 4.71 ERA wasn’t amazing but he did get grounders at a solid 55.7% rate. Like Whitlock and Houck, this year should afford him the chance to prove himself as a viable starter, though he’s also starting the season on the IL due to some forearm tightness.

The bullpen was seemingly more of a focus than the rotation, which is understandable given the club’s relievers had a 4.59 ERA last year, placing them 26th in the league in that category. The Sox made a pair of sizeable investments to bring in two very good relievers. Kenley Jansen got two years and $32MM while Chris Martin got $17.5MM over the same two-year span. Jansen has been one of the best closers in baseball for over a decade now, while Martin has somewhat quietly been excellent himself in recent years. Southpaw Joely Rodriguez was also brought aboard on a much more modest deal, though he’s currently on the shelf due to an oblique strain.

In addition to those signings, there was much shuffling of chairs. Matt Strahm became a free agent while Matt Barnes, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez, Franklin German and Easton McGee were all shipped out in various trades. Richard Bleier came the other way in the Barnes deal while the club also acquired Wyatt Mills. Time will tell whether that game of musical chairs was helpful, but the additions of Jansen and Martin should bolster the group.

Most of these moves happened before the calendar flipped over to 2023 and the roster was starting to come together, but the club got some bad news that led to numerous domino effects. It was reported in January that Trevor Story had an internal brace procedure on his right elbow. That’s a modified version of Tommy John that generally has a lesser recovery time, but only slightly. Story could make a late return but will miss most of 2023. Signed to a six-year deal going into 2022, it seems like the plan all along was to have Story play second base for one year and then move over to shortstop once Bogaerts left. That plan is now on hold and the Sox had to pivot over the last month or so before Spring Training.

It would eventually come to be realized that the post-Story plan is to have Enrique Hernández come in from center field to take over at short. He played in 100 games at shortstop coming into 2023 but they were scattered over many seasons in his role as a utility player as he’d never had a full-time gig there. To cover the vacated center field position, they signed Adam Duvall and Raimel Tapia, each of whom had just 75 games played at that position coming into the season. Christian Arroyo will be taking over at second. That’s his primary position but he’s primarily been a bench player in the majors, never topping 87 games played in a season. His defense at the keystone is graded well but he hasn’t really shown the ability to be much more than a league average hitter in his career.

The fallout from Story’s injury leaves the club with fairly unproven options at three up-the-middle positions. That’s true behind the plate as well, where they will be without Christian Vázquez for the first time in years. He was traded to the Astros at last year’s deadline and then signed with the Twins in free agency. The club opened this year with just a pair of backstops on their roster in Reese McGuire and Connor Wong. The latter opened the season with 33 games of major league experience. McGuire has 230 career games but mostly in a backup role, as last year’s 89 games are a career high. Jorge Alfaro was brought aboard via a minor league deal but has yet to crack the roster.

There’s also going to be an unproven option at first base, though one with much more reason for excitement. Triston Casas debuted late in 2022 and hit five home runs in 27 games while walking in 20% of his trips to the plate. Casas is one of the top prospects in the league, and the Sox were confident enough in letting him take over the position that they released Eric Hosmer. Hosmer had been acquired from the Padres at last year’s deadline, with the Friars eating all his salary and sending a couple prospects to Boston. It cost the the Red Sox nothing to let him go, though it still acted as a vote of confidence in Casas.

All in all, there’s plenty of talent on the roster but also plenty of uncertainty. The four up-the-middle positions are all being covered by guys with question marks around their viability, which left field and first base manned by rookies. There are reasons to doubt Alex Verdugo in right field as well as his performance has tailed off in each of the past two seasons. Then there’s the rotation, which is counting on a lot of bounce-backs and step-forwards.

The silver lining of all this roster turnover is that the Sox will get a parting gift from Bogaerts and Eovaldi, as both players turned down qualifying offers before signing elsewhere. However, even in that case, the silver isn’t quite as shiny as it could have been. The Sox did some selling at the deadline last year, including the aforementioned Vázquez trade, but ultimately stopped short of a true selloff. Partially as a result of that, they ended up about $4.5MM over the luxury tax line. That only led to about $900K in taxes but it diminishes what they will receive for the departure of Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Their return would have been one extra draft pick per player just before the third round of the upcoming draft, but those will now be moved to after the fourth round, a drop of over 60 spots. The club seems to be in good position to reset their luxury tax status this year, as their CBT number is currently at $221MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of this year’s lowest threshold of $233MM.

How would you grade the Red Sox’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Red Sox offseason review, we hosted a Red Sox-focused chat on April 3. You can click here to read the transcript.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

By | at

In conjunction with this post, MLBTR will be hosting a Twins-centric chat at 2pm CT this afternoon. Click here to submit a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

A whirlwind offseason saw the Twins give out the largest contract in franchise history in order to retain their shortstop amid a series of other moves aimed at improving the defense and bolstering the depth up and down the roster.

Major League Signings

2023 spend: $56.33MM
Total spend: $243MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Following a quartet of straightforward option decisions — Sonny Gray’s $12.5MM option was an easy call to pick up, while options on Miguel Sano, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were easy in the other direction — the Twins set out to remake their roster, with stockpiling depth at the forefront of most of their dealings. The desire to re-sign Carlos Correa loomed large and would hang over their offseason until his wild free-agent saga drew to a close, but the Twins had other business to attend to in the meantime.

That started with a pair of trades in the run-up to the tender deadline. As they’ve been willing to do in the past, the Twins moved one year of control over a quality player — Gio Urshela — in exchange for some prospect depth and financial flexibility. With Jose Miranda’s arrival on the scene in 2022 and several other options at first base, moving Urshela both shed a sizable arbitration salary and cleared a path for Miranda to slide from first base back over to the hot corner.

The trade of Urshela was followed just hours later by a new acquisition — unsurprisingly, one with multiple years of club control. Kyle Farmer came to Minnesota with two seasons of control and recent experience as the everyday shortstop in Cincinnati. That gave the Twins a safety net in the event that Correa signed elsewhere and a versatile utilityman in the event that they succeeded in either retaining Correa or signing one of the market’s other top shortstops.

Farmer’s career .288/.345/.492 slash against left-handed pitching surely appealed to a Twins front office that saw its club post a collective .240/.310/.392 slash against lefties in 2022 — a middle-of-the-pack output in MLB. Farmer cost the Twins a pitching prospect of comparable value to the one acquired in the Urshela swap and came with a salary roughly half that of Urshela, making the effective swap of infielders generally sensible, even if many Twins fans were understandably upset to see a solid player like Urshela shipped out.

The Twins’ focus thereafter shifted to courting Correa and simultaneously looking to upgrade behind the plate. Minnesota showed some interest in Oakland’s Sean Murphy but presumably found the asking price too steep for their liking, as the decision was instead made to sign the free-agent market’s No. 2 catcher, Christian Vazquez. The Twins reportedly showed minimal interest in top free-agent backstop Willson Contreras, likely preferring a blend of Vazquez’s superior defense and more affordable price tag.

Vazquez’s three-year, $30MM deal fell generally in line with expectations, and he’ll give Minnesota an upgrade over outgoing Gary Sanchez, who somewhat surprisingly remains unsigned. The 32-year-old Vazquez has long graded as a quality receiver and shown a strong arm behind the plate. He’ll slot into a timeshare with incumbent Ryan Jeffers, and while both hit right-handed, Jeffers is a prototypical lefty masher with grisly numbers against right-handers, whereas Vazquez handles same-side opponents reasonably well. It won’t be a conventional platoon setup, but the Twins can maximize matchups against particularly tough opponents and feel good about the gloves behind the plate, as Jeffers is a strong defender himself.

Shortly after the deal with Vazquez, the front office received the news it had been dreading since Correa exercised the opt-out provision in his three-year, $105.1MM deal: a big-market club had put forth a historic offer that Minnesota couldn’t bring itself to match. The Twins reportedly had an offer in the neighborhood of 10 years and $285MM on the table to keep Correa when the Giants, fresh off being spurned by Aaron Judge, came in with a 13-year, $350MM offer that trounced what the Twins had been willing to commit.

Correa accepted what was then slated to be the second-largest free-agent deal in history, and the Twins were left reeling. There’d been interest in Xander Bogaerts as a fallback to Correa, but he shattered expectations by agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres before Correa even agreed to terms with the Giants. Trea Turner had started the shortstop spending spree with a $300MM deal in Philadelphia. Dansby Swanson agreed to a seven-year deal with the Cubs not long after Correa agreed with San Francisco, and it looked for all intents and purposes like the Twins would head into the 2023 season with Farmer starting at shortstop.

As we all know now, Correa’s deal with San Francisco was only the first in a series of bizarre stops on a stunning path back to Minneapolis. The Giants called off Correa’s introductory press conference just hours before it was scheduled to take place. It eventually came to light that the team had medical concerns — specifically regarding a nearly 10-year old injury that Correa suffered as a 19-year-old in A-ball, when he fractured his tibia on a slide into third base. Surgeons placed a plate in his leg to stabilize the injury, which remains to this day. Both the Giants’ medical staff and a third-party expert voiced concern as to how Correa’s leg would hold up over such a lengthy term.

While Correa has never missed time in the Majors with a leg/ankle injury, he did have a scare late in the 2022 season, telling reporters after a play at second base that he’d been hit “in his plate” and experienced brief numbness and tingling. He walked off the field under his own power and enjoyed a strong finish to the ’22 campaign, however.

As the Giants debated how to proceed, Correa remained unsigned and available to negotiate with other clubs. Mets owner Steve Cohen, who’d previously lamented getting into the Correa market too late, swooped in and made a 12-year, $315MM offer that was also accepted — until the Mets raised similar concerns. A near two-week limbo period followed — partly due to the holiday season — where Correa’s fate remained wholly unclear. The Mets tried to restructure the deal, reportedly aiming to guarantee only half the proposed 12-year guarantee and then subject Correa to a series of conditional options based on the health of his leg.

At this point, the Twins had circled back, showing more confidence in Correa’s health over a six-year term than the Mets were willing to bet on. Minnesota handily topped the Mets’ reported annual salary of $26.25MM, offering Correa $33.33MM per year over a six-year term and including four club/vesting options that Correa can automatically trigger simply by hitting a predetermined number of plate appearances. Those four option years can tack on another $70MM, bringing the new contract to a potential $270MM over ten years and giving Correa a possible $305.1MM maximum over 11 years in Minnesota (including last year’s $35.1MM).

Unlike the scenarios that played out with the Giants and Mets, Correa’s physical was already largely concluded by the time word of his new deal with the Twins had begun to leak out. A day after he reportedly came to terms with the Twins, his new pact was announced, and the Twins improbably had the star shortstop they’d twice almost lost locked in on a contract that was more expensive annually than Correa’s shortstop peers but came with less long-term risk.

At the outset of free agency, a six-year term for Correa seemed implausibly light; there’s more risk to that six-year term than might’ve been expected, but the Twins have a generally clean financial outlook and have ramped payroll up into the $150-160MM range in recent seasons. They can afford the year-to-year gamble, and they’re more familiar with Correa’s recent medicals than any other team. For the second straight offseason, a bizarre series of twists effectively dropped Correa into their laps, and the Twins have to be thrilled to control him for as long as a decade but with “only” six of those seasons guaranteed.

The Correa deal undoubtedly changed the trajectory of the Twins’ offseason. Upon missing out on him, they’d signed Joey Gallo to a one-year upside deal and otherwise remained largely quiet as they regrouped. Were it not for the sudden turn of fortune, it might not have been a surprise to see the Twins retool, focus on development and make a few more value adds with an eye toward 2024 and beyond. Instead, the front office turned its sights to the top remaining need: the starting rotation.

Emboldened by the Correa reunion, the Twins bit the bullet and traded fan favorite infielder Luis Arraez to the Marlins in a deal that netted them two years of control over right-hander Pablo Lopez, plus top shortstop prospect Jose Salas and teenage outfield prospect Byron Chourio. It was a headline-grabbing move due in large part to the fact that Arraez had just won a batting title, albeit only by the slimmest of margins over AL MVP Aaron Judge.

Arraez may have the best best-to-ball skills in baseball, having fanned in just 7.1% of his plate appearances last year while batting .316/.375/.420 in a career-high 603 plate appearances. He’s an undeniably talented pure hitter, but the Twins had concerns about a growing history of leg injuries that have hampered Arraez before he even turned 26 years old. He’s also limited in terms of power and defensive value, with Minnesota shifting him to first base in 2022 even as second baseman Jorge Polanco missed time due to back and knee injuries. Arraez played a strong first base, by measure of most defensive metrics, but the Twins likely saw this as an opportunity to improve the defense and pitching staff simultaneously while also netting a touted shortstop prospect in Salas.

There’s certainly risk, as the Twins surrendered three years of Arraez for just two of Lopez, who is no stranger to injuries himself. Lopez made 32 starts and pitched 180 very strong innings in 2022, but he missed time in each of the 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons due to shoulder troubles. A healthy Lopez is the Twins’ best starter and one of the better right-handers in the league, but the 2022 season was his first with more than 21 starts or 111 innings pitched.

After acquiring Lopez, the Twins remained active on the trade front, shipping a pair of relief prospects to the Royals for the final year of Michael A. Taylor’s contract. In Taylor, the Twins acquired one of the only outfielders in baseball who can rival Byron Buxton’s defensive wizardry. That’s particularly key early in the season, as the Twins will use Buxton primarily as a designated hitter while he eases back from a knee procedure. Once Buxton is up to full strength, the Twins can boast perhaps the game’s best contingent of outfield defenders; Gallo, who started the opener at first base but will see plenty of time on the grass, has a pair of Gold Gloves in the outfield. Max Kepler, who for much of the offseason looked as though he’d be traded, wound up staying put and has been one of the game’s strongest right fielders for years by measure of metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

The Twins saved one final acquisition for the late stages of the offseason. After showing some interest in Yuli Gurriel, Minnesota instead added a more versatile right-handed bat in Donovan Solano. The 35-year-old Solano, like Farmer and (to a lesser extent) Taylor, has a track record of producing against lefties and can handle multiple positions. He gives the Twins a right-handed complement to first baseman Alex Kirilloff (once he’s back from a wrist injury) and can fill in at second base or third base as well. Solano is a contact-oriented hitter who’ll join a deep bench consisting of Farmer, Taylor (once Buxton is back to regular center field work) and utilityman Nick Gordon. That group gives manager Rocco Baldelli a series of quality defenders who can play multiple positions.

Minnesota left the bullpen largely untouched, retaining Emilio Pagan even after last year’s struggles. It’s a bet on the right-hander’s tantalizing raw stuff, but if he goes through similar bouts of homer susceptibility and blown leads, it’ll be rightly questioned. Then again, with last year’s deadline pickup of Jorge Lopez, the return of hard-throwing youngster Jorge Alcala, breakouts from Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and the late-2022 emergence of southpaw Jovani Moran, Pagan now looks more like a middle reliever than a late-inning, high-leverage arm. If Lopez rebounds closer to his Baltimore form than his shakier second-half self, the Twins have the potential for a strong bullpen overall.

The rotation, too, looks quite deep. Each of Lopez, Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda is at least a solid mid-rotation starter when healthy. The Twins may lack a prototypical ace, but they also don’t have a fungible “No. 5” starter in the mix. All of their top five starters fall somewhere between the “No. 2” and “No. 4” range — though numerical designations of pitchers is inherently subjective — and even sixth starter Bailey Ober makes for an unusually strong top depth option. He’d likely be locked into a rotation spot with many teams throughout the league but instead opens the season in Triple-A.

The Twins might not head into the 2023 season as the on-paper favorite in the AL Central, but this is the deepest roster and probably the best defense they’ve had under the current iteration of the front office. That’ll be extra beneficial if the injury bug again rears its ugly head for a Twins club that had more cumulative injured list days than any team in the American League in 2022. They’ll obviously be hoping for better fortune on that front this season, and if it plays out that way, the Twins will be right in the division mix with the reigning champion Guardians and a White Sox club also hoping for fewer injuries in 2023.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason?

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

By | at

In conjunction with this post, MLBTR will be hosting a Giants-focused chat on March 31 at noon CT. Click here to submit a question in advance. 

Unable to replicate their stunning 107-win campaign of the prior season in 2022, Giants brass went back to the drawing board this past offseason with a goal improving both the lineup and the defense by getting younger and more athletic. They might’ve accomplished that, to an extent, but despite deepening the roster, they missed out on multiple top targets and left many fans feeling underwhelmed.

Major League Signings

Total spend: $193.15MM
2023 spend: $85.65MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Waiver Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Giants’ first bit of offseason business was wrapped up by the time the free-agent market officially began. Joc Pederson parlayed his career-best .274/.353/.521 batting line into a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Giants. Rather than turn that down and head into the open market in search of a multi-year deal, Pederson became one of just two players to accept the QO this past offseason — Martin Perez was the other — thereby officially punching his ticket to return to Oracle Park for a second season.

Though he spent the bulk of his time in the outfield in 2022, Pederson seems likely to log more reps as the Giants’ designated hitter this coming season. It’s a steep price to pay for one year, but the Giants are a deep-pocketed club that isn’t particularly close to the luxury tax threshold at the moment, so they can afford to bet on Pederson approximating his outstanding 2022 production.

Pederson’s eventual shift into more of a DH role coincides with the Giants’ goals of improving defensively. They entered the 2022-23 offseason with the stated goal of getting younger and more athletic. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi plainly indicated as much last September, and just a few weeks later he added that “everything” was on the table in the offseason, including aggressive pursuits at the top end of the free-agent market.

That indeed proved to be the case, as the first portion of the Giants’ winter was dominated by their pursuit of Aaron Judge. The Linden, Calif. native was the Giants’ clear top target, and Zaidi & Co. made a spirited run at him. For the majority of the offseason, the Giants appeared the only real threat to pry Judge away from the Bronx. San Francisco offered the reigning AL MVP a reported nine-year, $360MM deal that matched the eventual terms he agreed to in his return to the Yankees. The division-rival Padres made a late push for Judge, but once the Yankees were willing to push their offer to nine years, Judge’s mind was made up. The newly crowned American League home run king spurned the nine-year offer that would’ve sent him back to his Bay Area roots and instead returned to the Bronx.

The Giants knew entering the offseason that luring Judge away from the Yankees was going to be a long shot, and true to Zaidi’s “everything is on the table” form, they pivoted to one of the top names on the market: Carlos Correa. Again embroiled in a bidding war with the incumbent team, the Giants eventually blew the Twins’ 10-year offer out of the water, putting forth a stunning 13-year, $350MM offer that would have given Correa the second-largest free-agent deal in MLB history, trailing only the contract Judge had just signed.

With that offer topping the Twins’ reported offer by three years and roughly $60MM, Correa accepted and the Giants appeared to have the superstar acquisition they coveted all but finalized. A press conference to introduce Correa was set for Dec. 20, as was a radio appearance on KNBR. Correa was going to be the Giants’ starting shortstop — until he wasn’t.

On the morning of that scheduled press conference, the Giants announced that Correa’s introduction would be postponed. No reason was given. His subsequent media appearances in the Bay Area were also postponed. It eventually came to light that the Giants and a third-party medical expert had voiced concerns about how Correa’s right ankle/leg would hold up over the course of a more than decade-long deal. Correa has never missed time in the Majors with an ankle/leg injury but fractured his tibia as a 19-year-old in the minor leagues and had a plate implanted into his leg to stabilize the injury.

While the Giants continued gathering information and soliciting opinions, Correa remained unsigned, and the Mets swooped in just a day later with a 12-year, $315MM offer that he accepted. Similar concerns arose from the Mets — unsurprising, given that they reportedly consulted the same third party — and that deal was also scuttled. Correa eventually returned to the Twins on a much shorter but much higher-AAV contract: six years and $200MM, with a quartet of vesting options that could take the contract to $270MM and bring his potential 11-year stint with Minnesota to a total value of $305.1MM.

That a second team expressed the same concerns and that Correa wound up taking a guarantee of less than half the length of the Giants’ original offer surely validated the front office’s trepidation in the eyes of some onlookers, but the simple fact remained: the Giants entered the offseason intent on getting younger, more athletic, and ideally acquiring a superstar around which to build their franchise — and that possibility no longer presented itself.

By the time the team’s deal with Correa had fallen through, Judge and all the other star shortstops (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson) had new contracts in place. Outgoing ace Carlos Rodon was also gone, having joined Judge on a six-year deal with the Yankees. The market’s other two aces, Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom, were among the earliest marquee free agents to find new homes.

Of course, the Giants hadn’t merely been sitting on their hands prior to their failed Judge and Correa overtures. The team inked Mitch Haniger to a three-year contract in early December and just days later brokered identical two-year pacts with righty Ross Stripling and lefty Sean Manaea.

Haniger’s deal added some needed punch to the middle of the Giants’ lineup but also came with a good deal of health risk. Stripling and Manaea deepened the starting staff, giving an organization known for maximizing pitcher performance a pair of veteran arms. San Francisco has routinely avoided long-term commitments to pitchers, making a Rodon reunion look unlikely from the jump. Both Stripling and Manaea have had big league success but came with some question marks; Stripling hasn’t worked a full season as a starter, while Manaea had a poor finish to the season thanks largely to a pair of catastrophically bad outings at Dodger Stadium. The price the Giants paid for both players is sensible, and both will have a chance to return to the market next offseason if they perform well.

With both Stripling and Manaea aboard, the Giants’ rotation was at least six-deep. That pair joined Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani, with swingman Jakob Junis and top prospect Kyle Harrison both serving as depth options. Harrison, one of baseball’s premier pitching prospects, should debut at some point in 2023. It’s a deep and talented group, and given the team’s spacious home park and nearly unparalleled track record of recent success with maximizing pitcher performance, there’s a good chance the Giants can again boast one of the league’s better rotations.

Upgrades were also made in the bullpen, where the Giants looked past Taylor Rogers’ poor finish to the 2022 season and bet heavily on his still-excellent strikeout and walk rates. The former Twins closer and 2021 All-Star might well have been a candidate for a four-year contract had he enjoyed a season more in line with his 2018-21 form (2.91 ERA, 2.66 SIERA, 31.2% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate), but the Giants still paid up in the form of a $33MM guarantee over three years. It’s a big bet that Rogers’ inflated ERA was more attributable to poor luck on balls in play, a spike in home-run rate that’ll prove fluky, and a diminished strand rate.

The signing of Rogers pairs him with his twin brother Tyler, making for a fun story at the back of the ’pen, but it also gives the Giants another high-upside arm to pair with flamethrowing closer Camilo Doval. That group will eventually be joined by righty Luke Jackson, who inked a two-year pact but will miss the early portion of the season wrapping up his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Jackson was a vital member of the Braves’ 2021 World Series team, but his signing marks another relatively risky addition in the bullpen alongside the newly signed Rogers brother.

Perhaps the Giants’ highest-profile signing came in the form of former Mets All-Star Michael Conforto, who inked a two-year deal after missing the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery stemming from an offseason injury. As with many of their other signings, the investment in Conforto is laden with both risk and upside. Beyond the fact that he didn’t play a single inning at any level in 2022, Conforto’s 2021 season was decidedly pedestrian. After slashing a combined .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) from 2017-20, Conforto batted just .232/.344/.384 (106 wRC+) in 125 games during his platform season for free agency.

The bet on Conforto isn’t simply one that his shoulder is now healthy — it’s one that his 2021 season can be looked past. The Giants are paying Conforto $18MM annually, and in the event that he is indeed healthy and productive, he’ll be able to opt out of his contract next offseason. That right kicks in once Conforto reaches 350 plate appearances. In essence, the Giants are making a $36MM bet that Conforto can again be a star player; if they’re right, they’ll likley only have to pay out half that sum but could lose Conforto after one year without the option of making a qualifying offer. (Players can only receive one in their career.) If they’re wrong, it’ll go down as a costly misstep that’ll impact the books through the 2024 season.

There’s been a lot of talk about “risk” to this point, but that’s largely unavoidable given the nature of San Francisco’s offseason. The Giants loaded up on short-term risk, signing several players coming off injury-shortened or even injury-ruined seasons (Conforto, Jackson, Haniger) and others coming off poor showings that don’t align with their prior standards (Rogers, Manaea).

Given that the Giants’ pursuit of Correa was called off for perceived injury risk on a long-term deal, it’s somewhat peculiar that the rest of the team’s offseason wound up punctuated by substantial health risks. Of course, there’s a difference between taking an injury risk for two or at most three years versus a 13-year term — and the extra trepidation on the lengthier commitment is plenty justifiable. But for the short-term, the Giants are even more at the mercy of good fortune in the health department than they’d have been had they found a way to make the Correa deal work out.

The rest of the offseason generally consisted of tinkering on the edges of the 40-man roster. Newly acquired relievers Kade McClure and Erik Miller aren’t on the 40-man roster but could conceivably be brought up at some point this year. Rule 5 catcher/outfielder Blake Sabol made the Opening Day roster, and infielder Brett Wisely gives the Giants some 40-man depth in Triple-A. That group cost the Giants a pair of fringe relievers (Gregory Santos, Yunior Marte), a Class-A pitcher (Jake Wong) and an outfield prospect who only had a brief stop in the organization after being acquired from the Brewers at the ’22 deadline (Tristan Peters).

The 2023 Giants will look wildly different than the 2022 Giants, but it’s still an open question as to whether this group is actually better. If they strike gold on most of their injury gambles, that seems likely to be the case. Odds of that happening are long, to say the least. Haniger is already starting the season on the injured list, and that surely won’t be the only injury of note from their newly acquired swath of veterans.

The Giants still have major question marks behind the plate, where Joey Bart has yet to seize the role. He’ll be backed up by defensive specialist Roberto Perez and perhaps the previously mentioned Sabol. In the infield, they’ll hope David Villar can step up at the hot corner while LaMonte Wade Jr. — no stranger to the injured list himself — can stay healthy and hold down first base. J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores provide some nice depth at both corners, but there’s an enormous amount of uncertainty at multiple spots on the diamond.

The good news is that much of that risk, again, is short-term in nature. The 2024 payroll could, in fact, be almost pristine. Each of Brandon Crawford, Wood and Pederson will be a free agent. Cobb’s contract has a $10MM club option. Conforto, Manaea and Stripling all have opt-outs. It may not be likely that all three will perform well enough to take those out clauses, but it’s probable that at least one will. The Giants have $102MM in guaranteed money on the 2024 roster, which is about $90MM shy of their current level. The trio of Conforto ($18MM), Stripling ($12.5MM) and Manaea ($12.5MM) could subtract as much as $43MM from that sum.

That leaves ample flexibility, be it for a Logan Webb extension or for aggressive pursuits in next year’s crop of free agents. That group will be headlined by Shohei Ohtani but will also feature names like Julio Urias, Aaron Nola and NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Extensions for Manny Machado and Rafael Devers undeniably sapped some star power from the group, but the Giants are set up for a mulligan and will be well equipped to add salary via free agency or trade.

For now, the focus is on keeping this group healthy and hoping the 2023 season looks more like 2021 than ’22. With the ultra-aggressive Padres and ever-dangerous Dodgers looming atop the division and an up-and-coming D-backs club gaining traction, the Giants aren’t division favorites and aren’t generally considered strong playoff contenders. They should have a deep pitching staff, however, and this group is plenty familiar with defying expectations. They’ll look to do so again in ’23, and if it doesn’t pan out, they have the financial firepower to make sweeping changes again next winter.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason?

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

By | at

The Rockies entered the winter with payroll already at franchise-record heights. That portended a quiet offseason, which ultimately proved to be the case. Colorado made a couple low-cost veteran free agent pickups to round out the roster in Spring Training.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $17.25MM
Total spending: $18.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed RHP Tyler Kinley to three-year extension worth $6.25MM (deal also includes 2026 club option and potentially buys out two free agent years)

Notable Losses

The Rockies missed the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, falling to last place in the NL West for the first time since 2015. It’s not a good position for an organization that also entered the offseason with a player payroll projected at franchise-record heights. That was the case even before Nolan Arenado declined his opt-out chance with the Cardinals, which kicked in another $5MM annually in payments from Colorado to St. Louis over the next three seasons (on top of the reported $16MM the Rox were paying this year regardless of whether Arenado opted out).

It pointed to a relatively quiet offseason and that proved the case for much of the winter. Colorado made a couple early moves on the pitching front. José Ureña returned on a $3.5MM deal to serve a back-of-the-rotation role. The right-hander had started 17 games last season, allowing more than five earned runs per nine but generating a fair number of grounders. Colorado had to address the starting staff in some capacity with Ureña and Chad Kuhl both hitting the open market and Antonio Senzatela still recovering from last summer’s ACL tear.

They didn’t wind up doing much else on that front, perhaps in part thanks to the rising cost of mid-tier free agent starters. Colorado swung a small trade for depth starter Connor Seabold from Boston but will otherwise rely on internal rotation arms. Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland will be counted on to bounce back from disappointing 2022 seasons, as will Senzatela once healthy. Ureña grabs a back-end spot with Austin Gomber, while Ryan Feltner and Seabold could vie for depth appearances.

Colorado was a little more aggressive in addressing the bullpen. Carlos Estévez and Alex Colomé walked in free agency, leaving a couple holes in an already underwhelming relief corps. The Rockies targeted hard-throwing righty (and Denver native) Pierce Johnson in free agency, signing him to a $5MM deal. It was a bit of a surprising sum for a pitcher who was limited to 15 appearances last year by injury but he’s just a season removed from striking out nearly 32% of opponents with a 3.22 ERA over 58 2/3 innings. He’ll pick up some high-leverage work as a bridge to closer Daniel Bard.

Tyler Kinley could eventually return to setup work but he’ll miss a good chunk of this season rehabbing from last year’s elbow surgery. Colorado placed a show of faith in him this offseason, guaranteeing him $6.25MM to cover his final two seasons of arbitration and potentially buy out a pair of free agent years.

If Johnson’s an upside play at the back end, the Rox also brought in a couple more stable relief arms. Control specialist Brent Suter was claimed off waivers from Milwaukee. The Brewers had evidently determined not to tender the southpaw an arbitration contract in the $3MM range but the Rox stepped in to claim his final season of team control. He adds a multi-inning relief option for skipper Bud Black. That’s also true of left-hander Ty Blach, who returned on a non-roster deal over the winter and will break camp with the club.

Perhaps the highest-leverage southpaw will be three-time All-Star Brad Hand. The Rockies signed Hand late in the offseason to a $2MM deal (with another $1MM just for cracking the active roster) shortly after losing Lucas Gilbreath to Tommy John surgery. Hand has continued to keep runs off the board into his mid-30s but has seen his swing-and-miss numbers decline. He’s not the same pitcher he was a couple seasons back but for $3MM, just capable middle innings work would be a fine return on investment.

The buy-low approach to free agency also extended to the position player side of things. The Rockies were loosely linked to some bigger-ticket upgrades, primarily in the outfield. A left-handed hitter (preferably one who could play some center field) seemed to be on the target list. Yet players like Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto and particularly Brandon Nimmo all priced themselves well beyond the Rockies’ spending range.

Colorado didn’t sign a single position player to a major league free agent deal until the offseason was all but over. The Rockies waited out the market but eventually added an outfielder who could hit from the left side. Switch-hitting Jurickson Profar was the last unsigned player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents. His market never materialized as he’d envisioned upon opting out of his deal with the Padres. He settles for a $7.75MM pillow deal in Colorado on the heels of a decent .243/.331/.391 showing with 15 homers. Profar brings a high-contact bat and solid offensive approach to Coors Field. He’s not a star, but the Rockies have to be pleased with the value they’re getting on a player whom most expected to land a higher annual salary over at least two or three years.

Profar’s signing pushes Kris Bryant from left to right field. Colorado will hope for better health from last winter’s $182MM signee. Randal Grichuk will start the season on the injured list, leaving Yonathan Daza as the frontrunner for center field work. Franchise stalwart Charlie Blackmon is back after making the obvious decision to exercise a $15MM player option; he could see some corner outfield reps but will spend most of his time at designated hitter.

Arguably the most significant acquisition of the Colorado offseason could factor into the corner outfield rotation at some point. As teams were reshuffling their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft in November, the Rockies lined up with the Guardians on a rare prospect for prospect swap. Power-hitting corner bat Nolan Jones landed in Colorado, while the Rockies sent Low-A middle infielder Juan Brito to Cleveland. It wasn’t about roster machinations — both Jones and Brito occupied spots on the 40-man — but was a rare case of two clubs valuing the other’s unproven player more than their own.

Jones won’t start the year in the majors, as he’s been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque on the heels of a tough spring. He’s certain to get an MLB look at some point in the next few months. The Rockies are hopeful his blend of power and patience can offset big strikeout totals and some defensive questions to allow him to develop into a middle-of-the-order force. The 24-year-old is a .252/.361/.443 hitter in 655 Triple-A plate appearances and can be controlled through at least the 2028 season.

Colorado entered Spring Training without much question about their infield. C.J. Cron is back at first base. Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon are above-average second and third basemen, respectively. Rodgers was loosely floated in trade rumors, specifically regarding young Marlins righty Edward Cabrera. No deal came together and the Fish instead flipped Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez. The Rox made no effort to retain last year’s shortstop José Iglesias, with top prospect Ezequiel Tovar ticketed for regular work there. Colorado brought in bat-first utility player Harold Castro on a minor league deal, and he eventually cracked the MLB roster in a utility capacity.

That seemed like enough infield depth, particularly with Jones and Elehuris Montero also in the mix for third base playing time. Unfortunately, Rodgers dislocated his shoulder during a spring game. He underwent surgery and might miss the entire season. That pushed McMahon over to second base and led Colorado to look outside the organization. They rolled the dice on a bounceback from three-time All-Star Mike Moustakas, signing him to a minor league deal shortly after Rodgers’ injury.

Colorado has already informed Moustakas he’s breaking camp. He hasn’t performed well over the past two seasons, missing a good chunk of that time as he battled foot issues. At 34, it’s possible he’s just not an everyday player anymore. The acquisition cost was minimal, as the Reds will pay all but the league minimum of the $22MM still remaining on the contract he signed with Cincinnati three offseasons back. Moustakas offers a left-handed complement to the righty-swinging Montero and Cron in the infield corners.

Catching was a disaster for the Rockies last season. They made no effort to address it over the winter, instead relying on Elias Díaz and Brian Serven for another year. Signing Díaz to a three-year, $14.5MM extension two offseasons ago was an odd move at the time, one that looks a particularly poor decision after he hit only .228/.281/.368 during the first season of that deal. The Rockies are clearly of the opinion he can bounce back, but Díaz has been a below-average hitter and gotten dreadful defensive grades from public metrics throughout his career.

Continuity has been a theme for the Rockies in recent years. Even as the losses have mounted, ownership and the front office have broadcast confidence in the group. Colorado has refused to entertain the possibility of rebuilding. They’ve committed to so many players on contract extensions (plus the Bryant megadeal) they probably couldn’t pivot to a teardown even if they wanted to at this point. That continued this winter, both in the form of an extension for skipper Bud Black to run through 2024 and comments from owner Dick Monfort about the state of the roster.

Monfort has previously caught flak for optimistic projections of playoff competitiveness that haven’t borne out. He wasn’t quite so bullish this offseason but again found himself in headlines in January, when he suggested the team could be around .500. That’s not the loftiest goal but again seems unlikely. The Rockies have one of the game’s thinnest starting rotations and a lineup that was middle-of-the-road in on-base percentage and slugging last year despite playing half its games at Coors Field.

The Rockies swapped out Dave Magadan for Hensley Meulens as hitting coach, hopeful a new voice can generate some more offense. Aside from Profar, they didn’t add anyone from outside the organization who’s likely to provide above-average hitting. Even if Bryant stays healthy and Tovar hits the ground running, Colorado is facing an uphill battle.

In Monfort’s defense, his proclamation of .500 ball came before Colorado lost one of its best players (Rodgers) to injury. Still, even another strong season from the Gold Glove second baseman would have been very unlikely to make this an average roster. FanGraphs’ projections peg the Rockies and Nationals as the two worst teams in the majors; Baseball Prospectus has Colorado 26th in MLB. Preseason projections will have misses, of course, but the Rox would have to win 15-20 more games than those outlets anticipate to get to .500.

In all likelihood, Colorado is headed for another losing season. There’s some room for optimism in the farm system. Tovar is already in the majors. The likes of Zac Veen, Drew Romo and Warming Bernabel are climbing the minor league ranks and have a chance to be important core position players in the not too distant future. The major league team continues to more or less spin its wheels, awaiting the arrival of a bulk of young talent from within the system while the MLB roster falls short of organizational expectations.

That was never going to be resolved in one offseason, and Colorado’s transactions this winter are all justifiable. It remains hard to discern the long-term plan, though, particularly as they again run up against one of the sport’s toughest division competitors.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a Rockies-centric chat on March 30. Click here to view the transcript.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

 

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

By | at

The Blue Jays reached a new spending frontier, and reshaped a good chunk of their starting lineup.  Is it enough to bring the Jays some postseason success?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $41.55MM
Total spending: $89.8MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Teoscar Hernandez led the Blue Jays in plate appearances from 2018-22, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finished fourth on that list.  So when GM Ross Atkins said in October that the Jays were less likely to change the team’s core during the winter, that ended up not quite being the case, though it’s fair to argue that Atkins perhaps didn’t consider two outfielders slated for free agency in the 2023-24 offseason as true “core” pieces.

Phrasing quibbles aside, Toronto leaves the offseason with a lineup that has considerably more balance between left-handed and right-handed batters, more speed, and more defense than last year’s squad.  On paper, the Jays look better prepared for both the reconfigured outfield dimensions of their home ballpark, and for a 2023 season that will put a broader emphasis on speed and glovework due to the new rules.

The Jays got right to business in revamping their outfield mix, as Hernandez was dealt to the Mariners in one of the offseason’s most notable early moves.  The trade brought the Blue Jays a young arm for the future in Adam Macko, and the more immediate help that Erik Swanson can provide to the bullpen.  Swanson has pitched well for the last two seasons, particularly a 2022 campaign that saw him post a 1.88 ERA and mostly-elite secondary numbers across the board in 53 2/3 relief innings for Seattle.

With the aftershock of the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapse in Game 2 of the wild card series (against the Mariners, ironically) still lingering, it was hard to argue that Toronto didn’t need to bolster its relief corps in some fashion.  Swanson will bring some needed strikeouts to the bullpen, and the Jays figure to use him in many types of high-leverage situations, including some traditional set-up innings in front of closer Jordan Romano.

Hernandez’s departure set the table for the next big outfield move, which also saw the Blue Jays finally dip into their significant amount of catching depth.  It isn’t often that a club moves a consensus top prospect like Gabriel Moreno, yet since Toronto also had Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen lined up behind the plate, all three backstops have been prominently featured in trade rumors for the better part of a year.

The Jays were willing to wait a little longer to finally trade a catcher, as their swap with the Diamondbacks didn’t come together until Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez were already off the free-agent catching market, and after the A’s had moved another major catching trade chip in Sean Murphy.  Arizona was also a team with a notable trade surplus, as its group of left-handed hitting outfielders attracted many teams besides just Toronto.  But, with the D’Backs needing catching and the Jays needed left-handed hitting outfield help, the fit was perfect.  Gurriel’s inclusion along with Moreno finally got the Diamondbacks to budge on Varsho, which was an acceptable result for the Blue Jays since Gurriel was already looking like an expendable asset.

The 26-year-old Varsho is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season, giving the Blue Jays a long-term asset that they see as an outfield cornerstone.  Only 28 players in baseball had a higher fWAR in 2022 than Varsho’s 4.6 number, as he combined excellent defense with strong baserunning and above-average (106 wRC+) offensive production in the form of 27 home runs and .235/.302/.443 slash line in 592 plate appearances.

There is naturally still room for improvement in Varsho’s numbers, particularly when it comes to drawing walks and making contact (Varsho struck out 145 times in 2022).  The Blue Jays are hoping that last season might represent Varsho’s floor as an offensive player, and even if he does have a similar year at the plate, Toronto isn’t going to mind another all-around performance in the 4.6 fWAR range.

Before the trade with Arizona, the Jays had already improved their outfield defense by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM free agent contract.  Kiermaier has been one of baseball’s best defensive players for the better part of the decade, and after being a frequent thorn in Toronto’s side as a member of the Rays, Kiermaier now moves elsewhere in the AL East after Tampa Bay declined their $13MM club option on his services for 2022.

Signing Kiermaier carries some obvious risk, considering that he has been an average offensive player at best during his career, and (most pressingly) a very frequent visitor to the injured list.  Last season was no different, as Kiermaier’s 2022 campaign ended in July when he had to undergo surgery to repair a torn hip labrum.  In theory, this surgery might finally correct what has long been a lingering issue for Kiermaier, yet it is also fair to wonder what Kiermaier has left in the tank as he enters his age-33 season and is coming off yet another substantial injury layoff.

Should Kiermaier again need to miss time, Toronto has a ready-made center field replacement in Varsho, or George Springer might even move back to his old position from his new right field spot.  Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio will figure into the corner outfield picture, with rookie Nathan Lukes also serving in a backup outfield capacity.

The result is a vastly superior defensive outfield, as the Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer alignment from left to right is streets ahead of the Gurriel/Springer/Hernandez trio that Toronto often used in 2022.  Even from a depth perspective, the Jays are in a better position than last year, when injuries to the starters meant a lot of playing time for such replacement-level outfielders as Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, or Jackie Bradley Jr.  Losing Hernandez’s bat may weaken the lineup, or maybe not if Varsho takes a step forward, or if Springer’s move to a less-strenuous outfield position helps him stay on the field more often.

With two left-handed bats in Varsho and Kiermaier added to the lineup, the Blue Jays added a third by signing longtime Giants first baseman Brandon Belt as the primary designated hitter.  Health is again a red flag here, as Belt has battled knee problems for years and underwent surgery on his right knee back in September.  Though those issues surely contributed to Belt’s subpar numbers in 2022, he was posting monster numbers when healthy in 2020-21, hitting .285/.393/.595 with 38 homers in 560 PA over those two seasons.

As with Kiermaier, the Jays have made preparations in case Belt has to miss more time, as any of Toronto’s right-handed bats could get a DH day whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound.  Belt said he felt reinvigorated in the aftermath of his knee surgery, so between good health, the move to a more hitter-friendly park (with more tempting dimensions for left-handed hitters), and less of a worry about defensive shifts, there is reason to think Belt can bounce back from his tough 2022 season.

These new faces will augment the team’s core group of Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and the now-solidified catching tandem of Kirk and Jansen.  Second base remains a bit of a question mark, but the Blue Jays seem confident that the combination of Merrifield, Biggio, and Santiago Espinal can be productive.  Toronto wasn’t really linked to many notable infield upgrades on the rumor mill this winter, with the exception of agent Scott Boras stating that the Jays “were really after” his client Xander Bogaerts before Bogaerts signed with the Padres.

Exploring big-name acquisitions has become routine for the Toronto front office in the last few years, with Atkins and company at least checking in on a wide array of players as a matter of due diligence.  The 2022-23 offseason was no exception, as the Blue Jays reportedly had varying degrees of interest in such players as Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon, Cody Bellinger, Johnny Cueto, Michael Brantley, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney, Masataka Yoshida, Kyle Gibson, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Robert Suarez, Alex Reyes, and their own most notable free agent in Ross Stripling.

Though some of those signings may have more realistic possibilities than others, the fact that the Blue Jays are able to consider basically any player speaks to the team’s greater financial flexibility.  After spending a club-record $171MM on payroll in 2022, the Jays have boosted that number even further with approximately $211.7MM committed to salaries this season.  This translates to a luxury tax number of roughly $250.5MM, putting the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time and quite close to the secondary Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $253MM.

Big-spending teams like the Yankees and Padres have slightly curbed their spending to stay under particular tiers of tax penalties, and it isn’t known if the Blue Jays might similarly see the second CBT line as an upper limit on their spending.  Still, given how aggressive the Jays have been, it is hard to imagine that the club wouldn’t be willing to surpass the $253MM line if it meant picking up a necessary addition at the trade deadline, for instance.  Exceeding the next tier ($273MM) might be a different story since the Jays would then see their top draft choice in 2023 knocked back ten places in the draft order.  But, the CBT’s impact on other non-financial penalties (such as the draft pick cost and compensation for free agents who reject qualifying offers) is the same for the Blue Jays if their tax figure is anywhere from $233MM to a dollar below the $273MM mark.

The Jays didn’t have any qualms about pursuing a QO free agent this offseason, as the team gave up $500K in international bonus pool money and its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft in order to make its biggest signing of the winter.  It wasn’t any surprise that most of the names on Toronto’s target list were pitchers, and the Blue Jays landed some necessary rotation help by signing Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal.

The Giants’ inclusion of an opt-out clause allowed San Francisco to entice Stripling away from a possible reunion with the Jays, meaning that Toronto had an even more marked need to find a replacement for Stripling’s quality production.  Bassitt was the answer, as he cashed in on the heels of a strong four-year run with the Athletics and Mets.  With a knack for inducing soft contact and limiting walks, Bassitt has been a thoroughly solid arm, and he’ll line up as the Blue Jays’ third starter behind Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

Even if the top three has been reinforced, however, an argument can certainly be made that the Jays might have done more at the back end of the rotation.  The Blue Jays are certainly hoping that Jose Berrios will be at worst a good fourth starter if he bounces back from his mediocre 2022 campaign, and fifth starter Yusei Kikuchi is also looking to rebound from a dismal season.

If Kikuchi falters again, the Blue Jays can turn to a group that includes Zach Thompson (acquired in a January trade with the Pirates), non-roster options like Drew Hutchison or Bowden Francis, or Mitch White when he is healthy.  Hyun-Jin Ryu might return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, but it’s an open guess as to what Ryu can contribute after his long layoff.  If not Ryu, perhaps top prospects Ricky Tiedemann or Yosver Zulueta might become possibilities by the second half, but overall, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the Jays’ rotation might look by the end of the season.

The rotation questions only put more pressure on the bullpen, and in speaking of late-season additions, Chad Green was another notable winter signing, joining the Blue Jays on an option-heavy deal that could be as little as a two-year, $8.5MM deal, or as much as a four-year, $29.25MM pact.  Green had Tommy John surgery last May, so he might also be something of an unofficial “deadline acquisition” that is already in the organization.  If Green can make a quick return to anything close to his past form with the Yankees, he’ll be another nice fit for the relief corps.

It was an altogether interesting offseason in Toronto, as the club didn’t exactly overhaul things (not that such an extreme was needed after a 92-win season) but also did more than just add the proverbial finishing touches to the roster.  The Blue Jays will again face stiff competition to return to the playoffs, but just getting into the postseason wouldn’t be satisfactory for a team that clearly has designs on a championship.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

By | at

The Mariners swung some interesting trades to bolster their lineup, but took a very modest dip into the free agent market.  Will it be enough to push this roster from playoff team to World Series contender?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $8.92MM
Total spending: $8.92MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

It wasn’t surprising that “Trader Jerry” Dipoto swung one of the offseason’s first big trades, as the Mariners president of baseball operations made a quick move in November to land Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays.  Erik Swanson was a huge part of Seattle’s bullpen in 2022 and he carries three years of arbitration control, but the M’s are betting their deep and talented relief corps can pick up the slack of Swanson’s departure, while the lineup was in need of a big bat.

Despite a pair of Silver Slugger Awards on his resume, Hernandez was still perhaps a bit overlooked in Toronto, given the presence of such higher-profile homegrown names as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.  The 30-year-old has a 132 wRC+ over the last three seasons, batting .283/.333/.519 with 73 home runs over his last 1337 plate appearances with consistently sky-high hard-contact rates.  The tradeoff to this production is a lack of walks and a lot of strikeouts, and public defensive metrics haven’t been impressed with Hernandez’s work as a corner outfielder.

Still, having Julio Rodriguez in center field will help cover some of Hernandez’s defensive shortcomings, and adding a reliable slugger as an everyday player immediately answered one of several questions the Mariners faced about their outfield heading into the winter.  While the M’s had several options to flank Rodriguez in the corner outfield positions, it was a list of players either short on proven MLB experience, or coming off underwhelming performances in 2022.

With Hernandez in place, the Mariners could pivot to unloading some of these other outfielders.  Kyle Lewis has played in only 54 games since winning AL Rookie Of The Year honors in 2020, due to both a concussion and recurring knee problems that might make him close to a DH-only player sooner rather than later.  While Lewis still hit well at Triple-A last season and has plenty of upside if he’s healthy, the Mariners instead opted to trade him to the Diamondbacks for a more versatile outfield option in Cooper Hummel.

In fact, this versatility extends behind the plate, as Hummel is a rare catcher/outfielder hybrid who can serve as depth at both positions.  Cal Raleigh is Seattle’s top catching option, and since backup Tom Murphy is coming back from a 2022 season cut short by shoulder surgery, Hummel gives the M’s extra flexibility with their catching mix.

The next outfield-related move also saw the Mariners address their need at second base.  The club’s explorations into keystone help included interest in a Gleyber Torres trade with the Yankees, and at least some interest in Trea Turner and the other top shortstops on the market, with the idea that one of them could be open to moving to second base (since the M’s preferred to keep J.P. Crawford at short).

Instead, the Mariners landed one of their other second-base targets for a player who seemed to have worn out his welcome in Seattle.  Jesse Winker was one of the Mariners’ prize pickups from the 2021-22 offseason, but lingering knee and neck problems seemed to sap his power — Winker had only a .344 slugging percentage in 2022, far below the .504 SLG he posted over his five previous seasons with the Reds.  There was also reportedly some behind-the-scenes discord regarding Winker within Seattle’s clubhouse, and so the M’s decided to move on by trading him and Abraham Toro (who was also expendable due to the Mariners’ other infield depth options) to Milwaukee for Kolten Wong.

2022 was also an uncharacteristic season for Wong, as while he had arguably his strongest year at the plate, his vaunted defense cratered.  Injuries were a factor in this situation as well, as Wong battled some leg problems that turned the three-time Fielding Bible Award winner into a subpar defender at second base.  Assuming Wong is now healthy, there’s plenty of potential for a bounce-back in Seattle, and perhaps even an opportunity for a career year if Wong can regain his defensive form and continued his improved hitting.

Wong isn’t expected to be an everyday contributor, as he’ll be spelled against left-handed pitching by platoon partner Dylan Moore.  While Sam Haggerty might fill this role while Moore recovers from an oblique strain, the M’s certainly consider Moore to be a key piece going forward, as the utilityman was signed to a three-year extension that gives the Mariners additional control over what would have been Moore’s first free agent year.

The last piece of the outfield puzzle was completed when AJ Pollock was signed to a one-year, $7MM deal.  Pollock’s signing sets up another platoon, as the veteran outfielder will be paired with Jarred Kelenic in left field.  This timeshare reflects Pollock’s reduced numbers against right-handed pitching in 2022, while also giving Kelenic regular (yet not full-time) work as he tries to establish himself in the majors.  The former top prospect hasn’t hit at all over his 558 PA as a big leaguer, but a big Spring Training performance has Kelenic and the Mariners hoping he just needed some extra time to adjust.

Between all these moves and the Mariners’ addition of another bounce-back candidate in Tommy La Stella, Dipoto took a measured approach to his lineup additions.  Hernandez, Wong, Pollock, and La Stella are short-term adds, all slated to hit free agency next winter.  Compared to some of the other names to whom the M’s were linked (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Masataka Yoshida, Andrew Benintendi, and old friend Mitch Haniger), the club clearly opted against making any sort of big splash of a move.

In terms of spending, the Mariners finished 2022 with roughly a $116MM payroll, and Roster Resource now pegs their 2023 payroll at approximately $140.5MM.  That’s not a small increase, but also not a big one either, considering that last fall, RR had Seattle projected for around $131.5MM in spending based on estimated arbitration raises alone.  Hernandez’s $14MM salary for 2023 basically accounts for the rise to $140.5MM, as the Mariners saved a few extra dollars by parting ways with such arb-eligibles as Swanson, Lewis, Toro, Luis Torrens, and Ryan Borucki.

To this end, Dipoto noted during a radio interview in December that the payroll increase is, naturally, a sign the organization isn’t afraid to spend.  Dipoto also pointed to the pricey contract extensions the team reached with Rodriguez and Luis Castillo prior to the end of the 2022 season as further evidence to his point that “raising payroll is doing smart things that evenly balance a team.”  However, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote in December that “multiple MLB sources have indicated that [Dipoto] isn’t operating with the payroll flexibility that was widely anticipated” heading into the offseason.

Since the Mariners’ payroll was in the $160MM range as recently as 2018, it isn’t clear why ownership might have limited spending.  It could be due to lingering after-effects from the pandemic, uncertainty over the Root Sports Seattle regional network even though the Mariners are still the majority (60%) owners, or perhaps just that stretching up to $160MM was something of an outlier for the franchise.  That said, it could be that the front office might be given funds during the season to pick up a needed trade deadline piece, or maybe the M’s are saving room in the budget for a larger pursuit down the road.  Since the Mariners were finalists for Shohei Ohtani when the two-way star first came to North America, it stands to reason the M’s would again have interest when Ohtani enters free agency next offseason, even if his contract demands approach or exceed the $500MM mark.

Speaking of pitching, the Mariners at least checked in on Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets.  This might have been more of a due-diligence pursuit on Seattle’s part, as adding Senga would’ve given the M’s seven rotation candidates, and maybe forced the team’s hand in subsequently trading one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen.  As Opening Day nears, Gonzales and Flexen are still on the roster despite months of trade rumors, as there has been plenty of speculation the Mariners might deal from their rotation surplus.

It could be Dipoto simply never received an offer to his liking for Gonzales or Flexen, and it is fair to assume the M’s wanted a quality return in exchange for a starting pitcher (especially during an offseason that saw so many free agent starters land huge contracts).  After all, the Mariners were under no particular pressure to swing a trade, considering the obvious benefit of simply keeping both Gonzales and Flexen in the fold.  A rotation “surplus” can quickly diminish in the event of an injury or two, and while Seattle has an intriguing wave of pitching prospects on the verge of the big leagues, the club probably prefers having a veteran arm as the top depth option.  The M’s also dealt from their prospect depth in sending Adam Macko to Toronto as part of the Hernandez trade, even if Macko wasn’t expected to reach the majors in 2023.

As noted earlier, the Mariners will be mostly counting on their existing bullpen mix to account for Swanson’s departure.  Some more relief depth was added in the form of minor league signings and lower-profile trades and waiver claims, but the M’s did sign a reliever to a guaranteed deal by adding Trevor Gott for $1.2MM.  Gott posted decent numbers over 45 2/3 innings out of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2022, and while he won’t get the high-leverage assignments that Swanson drew, Gott will bring some experience to the back of the pen.

Seattle’s chances of a deeper run into October might hinge on how much of a step forward their lineup can take, given how the pitching staff still looks like a strength.  The first step for the Mariners is just getting out of the AL West, since the Astros will still be a powerhouse and the Angels and Rangers each made several moves to upgrade themselves over the winter.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

By | at

The Yankees weren’t the busiest team this winter, opting for a handful of big moves instead of many small ones. That included signing one of the top starting pitcher free agents and retaining the consensus top overall free agent, the face of the franchise and now-captain Aaron Judge.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $89.75MM
Total spending: $573.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

There was little debate about who the top free agent was this offseason. Though there were four excellent shortstops and three aces, Aaron Judge was #1 on just about any list you could find. His 2022 season was one of the greatest in recent memory, even beyond setting the American League single-season home run record with 62. He also posted a .311 batting average, walked in 15.9% of his plate appearances, stole 16 bases and played excellent defense. His 11.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs was the highest by a position player other than Barry Bonds since Mickey Mantle in the ’50s.

It was widely expected that Judge would secure himself a huge contract, most likely to return to the Yanks. Here at MLBTR, we predicted eight years and $332MM, with all four contributors pegging Judge for a return to the Bronx.

That’s not to say that it was a fait accompli. The Yankees seemed to have a legitimate contender in the Giants. Not only did they have a fairly wide open long-term payroll, they were looking for a big free agent strike after a disappointing season. Since Judge was born and raised not too far from San Francisco and still has family in the area, the fit also made sense on a personal level. There was even a terrifying moment for Yankee fans when it seemed as if Judge was indeed going to the Giants, and the Padres almost swooped in and stole the day, but the Yankees eventually got the deal done.

The final contract came in at $360MM over nine years, the largest guarantee ever secured by a free agent. The average annual value of $40MM is the largest ever secured by a position player. The only pitchers who surpassed that were older aces on short-term deals, as Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander each secured AAVs of $43.3MM in their late 30s.

Judge was actually the second Yankee to be brought back after a trip into free agency, as the same had already played out with Anthony Rizzo. In early November, Rizzo opted out of the one year and $16MM remaining on his contract, which was quickly followed by the Yankees giving him a $19.65MM qualifying offer. As the qualifying offer deadline drew close, Rizzo was among those listed as rejecting it. However, just minutes later, it was reported that he and the club had reunited, keeping him as the first baseman in the Bronx.

With Rizzo and Judge both coming back, there will be much continuity with the Yankee roster relative to last year. However, there will be one significant change in the rotation, which the club needed to bolster after they traded Jordan Montgomery and saw Jameson Taillon become a free agent. The top of the starting pitching market featured three guys that stood out above the rest in Carlos Rodón, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, though each hurler had unique characteristics as a free agent.

Verlander missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery but then returned to post a 1.75 ERA in 2022 and win the AL Cy Young. Going into his age-40 season, he was sure to get a short-term contract with a huge AAV. deGrom is a bit younger, going into his age-35 season, but he had missed significant time in each of the past two seasons. When combined with the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he hasn’t made more than 15 starts in any individual campaign since 2019. But given his excellent results whenever healthy, he was sure to get a big payout one way or another. Rodón, meanwhile, had plenty of injury concerns preceding an excellent 2021 season. He still missed a bit of time and was limited to 24 starts that year, which held him to short-term offers in his first trip to free agency. But he stayed healthy enough in 2022 to make 31 starts with a 2.88 ERA, making the easy decision to opt out of his contract and return to the open market.

MLBTR predicted Rodón would be able to secure the largest guarantee of the three. We pegged deGrom for a larger AAV, but figured his injury concerns would cap him at three years to Rodón’s five. In the end, deGrom was able to get five years and $185MM from the Rangers, $37MM per year on average. As mentioned earlier, Verlander got his high-AAV contract, signing a two-year, $86.6MM pact with the Mets. Rodón had plenty of interest, with clubs like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rangers, Twins, Giants, Mets, Orioles and Dodgers connected to him in various ways. That led his camp to reportedly look for a seven-year deal or a $200MM guarantee or both. The Yankees reportedly wanted to stick to four or five years, but the sides eventually met in the middle. The final deal of $162MM over six years came up short of deGrom both in terms of guarantee and AAV, but Rodón still handily topped the prediction of five years and $140MM.

Swapping an ace like Rodón in for a solid mid-rotation guy like Taillon is certainly an upgrade, though it’s one that comes with risk. As mentioned, Rodón had an “injury-prone” label before the last two seasons. In the four years from 2017-20, he went on the injured list in each of them. He never topped 20 starts in any of those individual campaigns and started only 41 times in total in that stretch. That included injuries to his shoulder, bicep and elbow. Even in his return to form in 2021, he eventually hit the IL with shoulder fatigue and had diminished velocity down the stretch.

Rodón’s health could be a topic of conversation around the club for the next six years and is in the spotlight already, as he’s going to miss the start of the upcoming season due to a forearm strain. By all accounts, it’s a minor issue and he shouldn’t miss too much time, but it’s not an auspicious start to that commitment. The plan was for Rodón to slot into a powerful rotation next to Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. However, Montas will miss at least a few months due to shoulder surgery and Severino is dealing with a lat strain. With Rodón also out of action for a bit, the club will have to rely on depth options like Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito.

After Rodón, the club’s most notable investment in a new addition was for Tommy Kahnle, and the story there is fairly similar. The 33-year-old righty has often had excellent strikeout stuff, including a previous stint in the Bronx. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2020 and all of his 2021. He returned last year as a Dodger, but went back on the IL in May after just four appearances. After a four-month layoff, he returned in September and pitched well enough to get a two-year, $11.5MM deal from the Yanks. But like Rodón, he’s also set to begin the year on the IL, as Kahnle is dealing with a biceps issue.

The club made a few other moves, including signing a bunch of minor league deals like all teams. But those are the headlines. Some deadline acquisitions from last year like Andrew Benintendi and Matt Carpenter have moved on, but Judge and Rizzo were brought back. The rotation lost Montgomery and Taillon but will have Rodón and Montas, though not to begin the year. The bullpen has lost some familiar faces like Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman and Lucas Luetge, but Kahnle should give them a boost whenever he’s ready. The primary relief weapons now figure to be guys who have taken steps forward in recent years, such as Clay Holmes, Michael King and Wandy Peralta.

All told, the roster turnover is fairly low, relatively speaking. Perhaps the most significant change Yankee fans will see in 2023 will be from within. For many years, the club has turned away from marquee free agent shortstops like Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and others, seemingly confident that their future shortstop was currently being cultivated on the farm somewhere. Late in 2022, both Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera got to make their debuts, even factoring into the club’s playoff roster. Not far behind them was Anthony Volpe, who finished in Triple-A. Here in Spring Training, it seems that the process is even further along. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, last year’s primary shortstop, has already been moved into a utility role. The club also seems to like Cabrera in that kind of a role, which leaves the shortstop job open for one of Peraza or Volpe. It was recently announced that Volpe will get the job out of spring, though it’s possible the battle continues beyond the start of the season. Whether it’s on Opening Day or down the line, it’s possible that the two of them take over the middle infield together, eventually pushing Gleyber Torres onto the trade block, but that remains to be seen.

Given the young kids pushing for time, the Yanks apparently pursued trades of some their players that started to seem superfluous. Kiner-Falefa, Torres, Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson were all reportedly floated in talks at various times, though nothing came to fruition, which also contributes to the continuity on the roster. Unless a late spring deal comes together, that group should all be back in action in some form, alongside other holdovers like Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka.

Though the total volume of moves was on the low side, the moves they did make were all significant and have ramifications on the financial side of things. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll at $272MM, with a competitive balance tax figure of $292.5MM. That latter number is just a hair under the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which is $293MM. It was reported in January that the club is reluctant to cross the line, and they have indeed been fairly quiet since then. It’s a bit of a strange place to draw a line in the sand, as going over would lead to a slight increase in their tax rate on further spending, though no other penalties. But every team has a budget and this is apparently where the Yankees stop, at least for now.

It’s possible this could make things a bit tricky for the club throughout the year. If they want to make upgrades at the deadline and still want to avoid that last line, they would be limited to revenue-neutral moves. However, it’s possible that they may be able to clear some space in that time. If the younger players continue to develop as hoped, perhaps the Yanks could then feel better about lining up a trade of Hicks, Donaldson, Torres or Kiner-Falefa, even if it’s mostly about dumping salary and less about getting a return. Donaldson has a CBT hit of $25MM, Hicks is $10MM, Torres is $9.95MM and Kiner-Falefa is $6MM. Those players will have varying levels of interest that could be impacted by the upcoming season, but moving any one of them could give the Yanks a bit more wiggle room under that top CBT threshold.

The American League East figures to be a tough battle yet again, as the division supplied three playoff teams last year, with the Yanks finishing on top and the Blue Jays and Rays securing Wild Card spots. The O’s just missed the postseason last year and are on the rise with an organization stuffed with prospects. The Red Sox were fairly snakebit and ended up in the cellar last year but could get right back in it with better health. The Yankees can’t reasonably expect Judge to have the season of a lifetime every year, so they’ll need others to step up and help him out if they are to repeat as division champs and/or make the postseason for a seventh straight season.

How would you grade the Yankees’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Yankees’ offseason review, we hosted a Yankees-focused chat on March 29. You can click here to read the transcript.

Big Hype Prospects: Burleson, Ortiz, Rodriguez, Miller, Tovar

By | at

We’re fast approaching the eve of Opening Day. The likes of Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe, and Brett Baty continue to be among the most prominent prospect storylines. However, this column has covered them extensively over the long winter. It’s time we looked at some fresh(er) faces as we await Opening Day.

Five BHPs In The News

Alec Burleson, 24, OF, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 470 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .331/.372/.532

Walker’s ascension is overshadowing Burleson, who managed to snag a bench role and possibly a share of the designated hitter reps. The left-hander scalded Triple-A pitching before producing mixed results in 53 Major League plate appearances. Although his triple-slash of .188/.264/.271 can only be described as poor, underlying metrics suggest he was unlucky. In particular, his exit velocities, barreled, and hard contact rates all checked in as above average. He produced a .211 BABIP despite a batted-ball profile associated with high-BABIP hitters. An aggressive hitter, Burleson nevertheless has an advanced approach which helps him to make quality contact and avoid strikeouts. It’s difficult to avoid comparisons to teammate Lars Nootbaar who has a similar but more disciplined offensive profile.

Luis Ortiz, 24, SP, PIT (MLB)
(AA) 114.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.64 ERA

Ortiz experienced a breakthrough last season, leading to his ascension for a brief four-game cup of tea. He posted a 4.50 ERA in 16 innings while dazzling with a 98.5-mph heater. He’s back in the mix for an Opening Day role due to an injury to JT Brubaker. Ortiz throws standard and sinking fastballs as well as a double-plus slider. Though he doesn’t have an alternate offspeed weapon – his changeup is more of “show me” offering – such starters are increasingly common around the league. Typically, they only face the lineup twice. Should he eventually land in the bullpen, he profiles as a stopper or closer.

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

The Orioles front office has been unusually candid about Rodriguez dating back to last season. He suffered a lat injury on what many believe was intended as his final minor league appearance. While he recovered, GM Mike Elias commented about his belief Rodriguez would appear on the Orioles’ Opening Day roster in 2023 – comments he doubled down upon over the offseason. Ominously, Rodriguez didn’t look like himself after returning from injury. Though he continued to reap strikeouts (29) in 19 2/3 September innings, he also issued 14 free passes. He performed similarly this spring. In 15 1/3 innings, he recorded 19 strikeouts, seven walks, and a hit batter. He was also roughed up for three home runs. Once again, Elias was candid, saying “we were hoping that he would show up as a better version of himself.” Rodriguez still profiles as a future rotation member. His initial response to the lat injury has now cast a small sliver of doubt on his ability to reach an ace-like ceiling.

Mason Miller, 24, SP, OAK (AAA)
(AAA) 5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 5.40 ERA

That’s no typo, Miller pitched five innings at Triple-A after a seven-inning showing in High-A and two frames in the complex. He also collected six innings of work in 2021. Injuries have marred Miller’s early career. Finally healthy last fall and this spring, he impressed Athletics evaluators. He’s now on track to debut this season. Miller pumps upper-90s heat at the top of the zone. He also features a plus slider and has shown a quality changeup. He can locate both offerings to specific spots but doesn’t yet have command of the entire zone. While the stuff and repertoire suggest a future as a starter, the injury history could convince the Athletics to try him in the bullpen. He profiles as a top-tier fireman.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (MLB)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

A solid Spring Training at the plate — .308/.368/.462 in 52 plate appearances — has all but assured Tovar’s presence on the Rockies Opening Day roster. An able defender who could challenge for Gold Gloves, Tovar’s bat will determine whether he’s a future star or simply a quality Major Leaguer. The young shortstop has shown exceptional athletic ability. However, underlying peripherals suggest there could be a rough adjustment period ahead. Tovar hasn’t developed much plate discipline. His swinging-strike rate is high for an aggressive contact hitter. He could find himself frequently behind in the count. Coors Field represents a unique developmental challenge for a hitter who would probably benefit from a more consistent offensive environment.

Three More

Jared Shuster, ATL (24): Shuster is a soft-tossing southpaw who relies upon command and a plus changeup. He shouldered past the likes of Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, and Bryce Elder to claim a spot in the Braves’ Opening Day rotation.

Dylan Dodd, ATL (24): Dodd has marched in lockstep with Shuster all spring. They’re remarkably similar pitchers. Another southpaw with a changeup-led repertoire and a command-over-stuff profile, Dodd is even of a similar size and shape to Shuster. Since Kyle Wright is behind schedule, both Dodd and Shuster will make their debuts next week.

Hayden Wesneski, CHC (25): The return in the Scott Effross trade with the Yankees, Wesneski has staked a claim to the fifth starter role. His command of a deep repertoire and overall feel for pitching promises a long and lasting career in the Majors.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top