Angel Zerpa

The Royals have settled on a fifth starter, with manager Matt Quatraro announcing Thursday that right-hander Alec Marsh will begin the season in the rotation (X link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). The 25-year-old former second-round pick beat a group of Jordan Lyles, Angel Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV and Anthony Veneziano for that spot. Lyles and Zerpa will both begin the season in relief roles, per Quatraro. (The Zerpa decision was announced last night.) Lynch and Veneziano, meanwhile, were optioned to Triple-A Omaha last night and will presumably work as starters there.

Kansas City entered camp with four of their five rotation spots set. Lefty Cole Ragans, acquired for Aroldis Chapman last summer, enjoyed a huge breakout showing following that swap and will be the team’s Opening Day starter. He’ll be followed in some order by offseason signees Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as returning right-hander Brady Singer.

[Related: Offseason in Review: Kansas City Royals]

Per Quatraro, Marsh simply outperformed the rest of the field this spring in what the team considered a genuine competition (X link via Rogers). The right-hander has indeed been sharp, pitching 14 innings with a 1.93 ERA, 17-to-4 K/BB ratio and massive 68.8% ground-ball rate. That performance, per Quatraro, “exceeded what we could have hoped for.” Lyles, perhaps his primary competition, didn’t make things particularly competitive. In two official appearances, the veteran pitched five innings and was tagged for five runs on eight hits (four homers) and a walk with four strikeouts.

The 6’2″, 220-pound Marsh ranked as the Royals’ No. 14 prospect entering the 2023 season, per Baseball America. His big league debut included 74 1/3 innings of 5.69 ERA ball. Marsh made eight starts and another nine relief appearances. He fanned a quarter of his opponents but also issued walks at an 11.4% clip. Marsh was exceptionally homer-prone, yielding an average of 1.94 homers per nine frames thanks to a paltry 34.6% ground-ball rate.

Marsh debuted a new-look sinker late in the 2023 season, throwing the pitch for the first time on Aug. 27. He used it only 10-15% of the time for his first few outings with the new offering, but tossed it at a 27.4% clip in his final two outings of the season. The work on the new two-seamer has paid off in a small sample of spring appearances — at least if Marsh’s eye-popping grounder rate is any indication. He can’t be expected to maintain that level, which would make him one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers, but it’s an encouraging trend for a pitcher who sported just a 30.8% grounder rate prior to unleashing that new pitch last season.

If Marsh can step up and solidify himself as a rotation cog, he’ll be a long-term option. The Royals still control him for a full six seasons. Marsh only picked up 94 days of service time last year, meaning he’s not even on track for Super Two eligibility. He won’t be arbitration-eligible until the conclusion of the 2026 season and can’t become a free agent until the 2029-30 offseason. Future optional assignments could impact either trajectory, but the organizational hope is surely that Marsh will hit the ground running and won’t need further seasoning in Triple-A.

As for Lyles, the move to the ‘pen isn’t how he or the baseball operations staff envisioned things going. The veteran righty inked a two-year, $17MM contract last offseason in hopes that he’d fill the same innings eater role in which he’d found success with the 2022 Orioles. Instead, Lyles was rocked for 6.28 ERA. He took the ball 31 times and soaked up 177 2/3 frames, but his starts were too often non-competitive for a 56-win Royals club. Lyles’ 16% strikeout rate was one of the lowest of his career, and while he maintained a very strong 6% walk rate, he also allowed an average of 1.98 long balls per nine frames — third-highest in MLB among qualified pitchers.

Lyles is earning $8.5MM this season, and the Royals still have some inexperience in their rotation in the form of Marsh and Ragans. Sophomore struggles from either pitcher and/or injuries elsewhere in the rotation could lead to Lyles starting some games even if he begins the year in a long relief role.