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2018-19 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Braves stuck to their valuations when it came to offseason trade and free agent targets and ultimately made only a few acquisitions, leaving the team largely reliant upon its abundant young talent as it seeks to repeat as division champion.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired OF Matt Joyce from Giants in exchange for cash considerations
  • Acquired C Raffy Lopez from Padres in exchange for PTBNL or cash

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Atlanta Braves Depth Chart | Atlanta Braves Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Sometimes an offseason involves creative reshuffling, with multiple moves that reshape certain elements of a roster. Other times, you just see your holes and fill ’em up. It was decidedly the latter this time around for the Braves.

There was never any question that the Braves would be hanging onto their young core — including the better portion of their many excellent upper-level prospects. But it was possible to imagine any number of possibilities for GM Alex Anthopoulos and company after the team surprisingly won the National League East last year.

As it turned out, the Braves got their work in early and focused on short-term veterans. Two of those players are quite familiar to the Atlanta faithful. Former star catcher Brian McCann will come back home in a reserve role. He’s a solid veteran and could be a nice value, but there isn’t a ton of upside in the signing.

It’s much the same for outfielder Nick Markakis, who’ll fill the void created by his own departure. Though the Braves reportedly explored other options in right field, they watched several free agents go elsewhere and bypassed trade possibilities to re-up with Markakis. It was a nice price for a guy who won a Silver Slugger last year, but the payout also reflects the skepticism in the 35-year-old’s outlook from the rest of the market. Markakis has been a slightly above average hitter for most of his career and doesn’t seem terribly likely to be anything more than that in 2019.

If those moves prioritized floor over ceiling, the Braves chased the upside with their other signing. Josh Donaldson had been one of the game’s very best players before injuries intervened of late. He’s not particularly young, but isn’t over the hill at 33 years of age. Donaldson slashed 33 long balls with a 151 wRC+ in 2017, so it’s not as if his heyday is well in the rearview mirror.

Adding Donaldson was something of a splurge, in that the Braves had repeatedly given signals they were content with Johan Camargo at third base and also have top prospect Austin Riley waiting in the wings. But it was precisely the kind of move that made sense for a club in this situation. The Braves had ample payroll availability to work with now but were wary of committing too much future spending capacity. They wanted to win now while preserving their long-term contention window. The club has the pieces in place to cover if Donaldson experiences health problems, but was also well-situated to benefit from a premium talent at the hot corner.

Other than that, it was mostly crickets from the Atlanta organization. They brought in veterans Josh Tomlin and Matt Joyce at the tail end of camp to fill out the roster, but there’s no real commitment to either player. That it even proved necessary to grab these sorts of players at the last minute is itself a source of frustration for some fans — and a reflection of the generally cautious approach the Braves ended up taking to outside acquisitions this winter.

Questions Remaining

The Braves are an up-and-coming team that has already arrived. Why, then, is there so much hand-wringing in Atlanta as the season gets underway?

In no small part, it seems to be something of a public relations miscalculation. Many fans have heard all about the Liberty Media overlords. They’re primed for payroll disappointment, familiar with non-committal executive lingo. So when they hear talk about the team’s ability to “shop in any aisle” and are told “there’s no single player that [the team] can’t afford,” they sense a loosening of the pocketbook strings. When they’re told “the payroll will go up for the current year,” they don’t stop to ask whether that means hypothetical spending capacity or actual cash owed on Opening Day; rather, they begin to wonder, “how high?”

The Braves payroll to start the year will actually sit just below the levels carried in the prior two years. While the club says it’s still got more to work with in the middle of the season, that’ll only be deployed if it’s deemed to be warranted. Three division rivals set their sights on mounting challenges, making significant new roster additions to strong existing talent bases. The Braves also clutched onto their many talented, upper-level pitchers when some might have been cashed in to deliver more immediate upgrades. It seems fair to say there’s some risk in the wait-and-see strategy, though it also offers some obvious advantages in preserving resources to address those needs that arise.

The wisdom of hanging onto resources, rather than using them to facilitate bigger acquisitions or patch up issues that have already cropped up, will be tested early. That’s true especially of the pitching staff. There’s loads of talent in Atlanta, but that’s not fully reflected on the current roster. And for every bit of upside, there’s a downside scenario to match.

There’s something symbolic in the fact that Julio Teheran took the ball on Opening Day for the sixth-straight time. For all his positive moments, there were many that believed he ought to be sent out this winter in favor of higher-upside arms. He’s joined by Sean Newcomb, who hasn’t proven capable of taking the next step in the majors, and talented but totally unproven youngsters Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright — neither of whom seemed to have much of a chance at all of earning a MLB job when camp opened. Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman are on the DL to begin the year; both also need to prove their successes in Atlanta last year can be sustained. Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard and others are waiting for their chance to show they deserve permanent jobs; Mike Soroka and perhaps Luiz Gohara will join them in that pursuit if they can get to full health. There are yet more fascinating hurlers lurking from outside the 40-man roster. It’s quite an assemblage of talent, it’s just impossible to tell who’ll end up taking the bulk of the starts and how it’ll all work out.

It was a bit surprising that the Braves weren’t able to condense some of those young players into a high-end starter — a seemingly never-ending, never-fulfilled pursuit for the organization. But it’s also not clear what the possibilities were, and it’s understandable that they were not willing to sell short on their talent for an arm they didn’t believe in.

The lack of action was a bit tougher to understand in the bullpen, though. Injuries struck there as well, with A.J. Minter and Darren O’Day hitting the shelf. The rotation issues also drew away some options, though Max Fried still ended up being stashed in the pen rather than stretched out at Triple-A. There are some good young arms in the mix, and the Braves didn’t exactly need to replace anyone when you look at their full-health unit, but it still might have made sense to commit some cash to bring in a veteran. Luke Jackson and Josh Tomlin are in the pen to begin the year, which hardly seems optimal.

Things seem to be in sturdier shape on the position-player side. The infield, in particular, is a sensibly constructed unit that includes nice flexibility and upside. The big question there is whether Dansby Swanson will advance with the bat. And the team would obviously look better with J.T. Realmuto taking the majority of the time behind the dish, rather than a timeshare between McCann and Tyler Flowers. But there’s a huge ceiling with Donaldson and Freddie Freeman on the corners and Ozzie Albies installed at second.

There does seem to be a missed opportunity in the outfield, however. Solid as he has been, Markakis is hardly an inspiring choice. A run at Bryce Harper was never realistic, but the Braves were ultimately unwilling to go past their valuations on veterans Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley — not stars, at this stage, but younger and with better outlooks at the plate than Markakis. The most intriguing possibility all along was on the trade side, with Mitch Haniger representing a particularly appealing target. But he was never really made available — or, the Braves and others didn’t dangle enough to interest Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. There was some chatter on a few other players, but nothing ever seemed to get very serious.

As it turns out, the Braves will open the year with a curious outfield mix at the MLB level. The veteran Joyce is now backing up Markakis, center fielder Ender Inciarte, and uber-talented youngster Ronald Acuna. Only Acuna hits from the right side; he’s also the least likely player to ride the pine on any given day. Charlie Culberson offers a righty bat with some corner outfield experience, but he’s a marginal hitter historically. The Braves are paying Adam Duvall $2,875,000 to try to figure things out at Triple-A. It still feels like there could be some further moves to sort this situation out. Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe may be facing a bit of a roster crunch early and could be a fit if the teams are willing to strike an early-season deal. Anthopoulos could still look at some waiver options or other low-risk bench moves to get a righty outfield bat on the team.

2019 Outlook

Since we’re mostly analyzing moves (there weren’t many) and then looking at questions (there are quite a few), the above analysis could come off as overly negative. The fact is, the Braves have loads of fascinating players and are just about as likely as any of their three primary division rivals to win the division or take a Wild Card spot. But there was a clear choice here to preserve both mid-2019 and future assets (of the payroll and prospect varieties) rather than to ramp up the roster for the immediate season. There are reasons for that decision, to be sure, but it also increases the risk and is subject to critique.

How would you grade the Braves’ offseason? (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Cardinals added a major star via trade but otherwise largely doubled down on their existing roster as they seek to break an uncharacteristic string of postseason-free campaigns.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[St. Louis Cardinals Depth Chart | St. Louis Cardinals Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals have rolled off eleven-straight winning seasons, which is really quite an accomplishment. But the last three of those campaigns have ended without a posteason berth and the club last won the World Series in 2011. It’s hardly an epic drought, but this is an organization that holds itself to a high standard.

The problem, arguably, was that the club has of late lacked truly premium players on an otherwise deep and talented roster. In 2018, no St. Louis player reached five wins above replacement, as measured by Baseball-Reference. The organization seemed like a prime contender to chase after superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Instead of dangling $300MM+ contracts to those younger players, the Cards coughed up some of their solid young MLB assets in a swap that brought in outstanding first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks. Luke Weaver has at times looked like a quality, mid-rotation hurler; Carson Kelly at one point seemed the long-term replacement for Yadier Molina. Both will now seek to stake out a career in Arizona while their new team mourns the departure of an all-time franchise great.

That acquisition only brought the Cardinals one year of control over Goldschmidt, who was slated to test the open market next winter. But he and the team cozied up quickly and worked out a contract that meets the needs for each. Defensively limited sluggers just don’t earn like they used to. Goldschmidt turns 32 this September, so he’s hardly youthful. And he’ll take home a bigger deal (albeit without the opt-outs) than that secured last winter by top slugger J.D. Martinez (five years, $110MM). It’s sensible for him to take the money now and understandable that the club was willing to pay something close to open-market value to ensure they keep their new lineup centerpiece.

The other major deal struck by the Cards this winter went to an existing player. Having struck gold with their signing last year of starter Miles Mikolas, the team doubled down with a lengthier contract. It’s a manageable risk at $17MM annually over four years, but also represents a good bit of faith in a pitcher who had not even cracked one hundred MLB innings before his triumphant return stateside last year.

St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak obviously felt quite good about the organization’s pitching depth on the whole. But he did make one new acquisition to boost the pen, placing a sensible bet on veteran lefty Andrew Miller. The multi-inning relief ace was limited by a balky knee last year and just wasn’t as sharp as usual. If he can recover some of his lost velocity and get batters to start chasing out of the zone again, Miller could be a bargain. Even if not, he still ought to be an effective relief arm so long as he’s able to stay on the field.

Otherwise, the Cardinals picked around the edges of the roster. They decided to give another year to veteran Adam Wainwright to buttress the rotation — which ultimately made it easier, at least in the short term, to part with Weaver. Veteran receiver Matt Wieters was added late in camp; he beat out Francisco Pena for the right to spell Molina here and there. Drew Robinson was snagged as a utility option, while the team also made low-risk depth moves for hurlers including Ryan Meisinger, Mike Hauschild, Chris Beck, and Tommy Layne.

Questions Remaining

There aren’t many holes on this roster. As we touched on at the outset, though, that isn’t really the question. It’s this: did Mozeliak and co. do enough?

The Cardinals play in the most competitive division in baseball, from top to bottom. While most would tab the Reds and Pirates as underdogs, both project as approximately average teams. The Brewers and Cubs have their warts, but those teams won 96 and 95 games apiece last year, respectively. There’s ample wild card competition in the rest of the National League as well.

While adding Goldschmidt is precisely the kind of move the Cards could and should have made to put more wins into their lineup, it’s arguable they should have done more. A spirited pursuit of Harper or Machado may still have made sense. Had they gone big with another acquisition, the Cards could have used any displaced players as trade chips to boost the pitching. Or, the team could have gone straightaway after high-end arms in free agency or trade. A significant rotation upgrade, high-end closer, or multiple top late-inning relievers could all have made sense. Heck, perhaps they still ought to be in on Craig Kimbrel.

Going with the existing options was certainly defensible in many respects, but the Cardinals will need some things to go their way to take the NL Central. The organization continues to pump out young arms, but they’ll be put to the test to a greater extent than had been hoped due to ongoing injury issues for Carlos Martinez. When he’ll be back isn’t known. Neither can we guess at this point what the team will get from the aging Wainwright, oft-injured Michael Wacha, or still-raw Dakota Hudson — a groundball monster who won the final rotation spot in Martinez’s place. Alex Reyes is a fascinating talent but will be handled carefully after a brutal string of injuries. He’ll be in the pen to open the year. Mikolas and Jack Flaherty were excellent last year but are (in quite different ways) still thin on MLB experience.

The pen has some fire — Jordan Hicks, in particular — but would look that much better with a veteran closer sitting atop the depth chart. Otherwise, there wasn’t much need to spend on depth. The club opened with John Brebbia, Dominic Leone, and Mike Mayers supplementing the above-noted players as middle relievers and John Gant on hand as a swingman. There are some veteran pieces available if any of those arms falter; in addition to the minor-league signees, the club held onto Chasen Shreve after bumping him from the MLB roster and could still hope for contributions from rehabbing, high-priced veterans Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson.

It’s hard to quibble with any of the position players on the roster to open the season; all seem like quality big leaguers. But it’s hard also not to wish that there was one more star-level performer in the mix, with the other players all bumped down a peg on the depth chart. There’s a plethora of ~2 WAR projected players on the roster. If deployed with precision, perhaps the exceedingly deep mix of individuals will play up as a unit. But truly optimal usage is difficult to pull off.

The potential lineup issues are most obvious in the outfield, where the Cardinals feature two bounceback candidates (Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler) who realistically weren’t going anywhere after tough 2018 seasons. Harrison Bader impressed as a rookie, but projection systems expect his bat to take a step back with the bat; it’s the opposite situation for Jose Martinez, a highly talented hitter who probably ought to be on an American League roster. Tyler O’Neill has a chance to be the most productive member of the bunch, but he’ll have to pare back the worrying volume of strikeouts he ran up last year and prove he can overcome the adjustments of MLB pitchers. The Cardinals have already spun off a number of other outfielders in recent seasons — Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Magneuris Sierra — and yet still seem to have a mix that’s deep but potentially lacking in top-end pieces.

It’s not altogether dissimilar in the infield, though it’s easier there to see why the Cards held pat. Matt Carpenter was the team’s best player last year and is an easy choice to pay nearly everyday. They already locked into Paul DeJong with an extension. There’s a sensible platoon match at second between Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko, with the latter joined by Yairo Munoz as utility pieces who can also spell DeJong and help keep the older corner players fresh.

2019 Season Outlook

This club has every hope of returning to the postseason. But it would hardly be surprising to see another disappointing conclusion to the year. It seems fair to say the front office could have pushed harder to boost the near-term outlook, though that would have meant giving up future value in a trade and/or further expanding an Opening Day payroll that is already topping $160MM for the first time in club history.

How do you think the Cards handled things this winter? (Link for app users.)

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

An 89-win season in 2018 wasn’t enough to satisfy Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto, who took the franchise on an aggressive re-imagining campaign over the winter. Dipoto’s plan is likely to lead to a short-term step back for the Mariners, already the owners of North American sports’ longest playoff drought (18 years), but his hope is that it’ll pave the way for perennial contention over the long haul.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Seattle Mariners Depth Chart | Seattle Mariners Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

It was December 2013, fresh off four straight awful seasons, that Seattle made one of the biggest splashes in the history of free agency by signing ex-Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240MM contract. At the time, then-GM Jack Zduriencik & Co. no doubt envisioned a Cano-led roster competing for World Series. Instead, with the Mariners continuing to disappoint during the first two years of the Cano era, Zduriencik lost his job in August 2015. His ouster led to the hiring of Dipoto, who, almost four years after taking the reins, cut the cord on Cano.

Aside from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs last season, Cano largely lived up to his lofty pact in Seattle. It was the rest of the team that fell short, though, and Dipoto was apparently convinced it would have been more of the same in 2019 had he stayed the course. So, with a half-decade and $120MM still left on Cano’s contract, Dipoto set out this past offseason to clear the 36-year-old off the team’s books before age could truly takes its toll on the eight-time All-Star.

In early December, just over a month after the offseason began across the majors, Dipoto found a taker – the Mets – in a whopper of a trade. When the dust settled, seven players had moved between the two teams, and Seattle had saved $64MM. In the process, the Mariners hauled in three promising prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-handers Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista – for a farm system that has gone from pitiful to presentable in recent months. Additionally, they picked up a pair of veteran stopgaps in outfielder/first baseman Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak to help offset money in the swap. Of course, the deal also saw Seattle wave goodbye to closer Edwin Diaz, one of the premier relievers in baseball. That’s going to hurt, especially considering the flamethrowing Diaz still has four years of control remaining, but the Mariners deemed it acceptable to lose him because it meant getting rid of a large portion of Cano’s money.

True to form, the aggressive, trade-happy Dipoto made several other noteworthy deals in the offseason. One sent No. 1 starter James Paxton and his two years of control to the Yankees for a trio of prospects, including lefty Justus Sheffield, who may be the Mariners’ top farmhand and figures to contribute as early as this season. In another, Dipoto packaged shortstop Jean Segura – who was the source of some clubhouse friction last season, and who had a guaranteed $58MM remaining on his pact – as well as relievers Juan Nicasio ($9MM) and James Pazos to the Phillies for infielder J.P. Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana’s the more proven major leaguer of the two, the real prize for Seattle was the 24-year-old Crawford, a former high-end prospect who the team hopes will emerge as Segura’s long-term successor.

Santana wasn’t long for the Mariners, who quickly dealt him to Cleveland in a three-team trade that also included Tampa Bay. The Mariners acquired first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion in the deal, and though he has been one of the majors’ fiercest sluggers in recent years, it was more about saving a few million dollars and netting a competitive balance pick from the Tribe. That wasn’t the only trade the Mariners pulled off that included the Rays, whom Dipoto has consistently bartered with in his time with the M’s. The first trade he made of the offseason was a five-player deal which saw catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia go to the Rays for center fielder Mallex Smith. Zunino was a competent regular for the Mariners, but he never blossomed into the star they wanted when they selected him third overall in the 2012 draft. Moreover, he has just two years of control left versus four for Smith, a breakout player in 2018 who could be the Mariners’ first mainstay in center since Mike Cameron’s tenure.

In other trades that’ll have an immediate effect on the major league product, the Mariners nabbed Zunino’s replacement, Omar Narvaez, from the White Sox and got outfielder Domingo Santana from the Brewers. All they had to surrender for Narvaez was reliever Alex Colome. Just about any bullpen would be happy to have Colome, but he’s 30 years old, somewhat pricey ($7.325MM) and two seasons from free agency. He clearly wasn’t a must-have piece for the Mariners in their present state. Narvaez, on the other hand, has been a strong offensive catcher since debuting in 2016 and is under wraps through 2022. While Narvaez is nowhere near the defender Zunino is, it still looks like a worthwhile behind-the-plate switch for the Mariners.

Likewise, the Mariners were within reason to exchange Gamel for Santana in what came off as a floor-for-ceiling trade. Gamel was satisfactory from 2017-18, but he doesn’t carry the potential of Santana, who was a 30-home run, 3.3-fWAR player in 2017 before taking sizable steps backward last year. But Santana got lost in a crowded Milwaukee outfield in 2018, and he’ll have a chance to regain his footing in a regular role for the Mariners, who have his rights through 2021.

Understandably, trades tend to occupy the lion’s share of talk when it comes to Dipoto. However, he also did quite a bit of work in free agency this past offseason. His most important transaction was reeling in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who could emerge as the franchise’s latest Japanese-born cornerstone. The Mariners had to beat out a slew of teams for Kikuchi, a 27-year-old who fared pretty well in his first meaningful outing in the majors – a win over the Athletics last week in his homeland – and has the potential to serve as a solid starter in Seattle for a while.

Dipoto also landed Diaz’s immediate successor, Hunter Strickland, via the open market. The former Giant, 30, largely held his own with them, though he did struggle in 2018. Still, for just a $1.3MM guarantee, you can’t fault the Mariners for taking a shot on Strickland. The same logic applies to infielder Tim Beckham, their shortstop until the optioned Crawford shows up in the majors. Although Beckham was terrible as a member of the Orioles in 2018, he’s a former No. 1 overall pick (the Rays took him in 2008) who was a 3.4-fWAR player in 2017. Again, for just over $1MM, he’s worth a try. If nothing else, he’ll provide the Mariners a Band-Aid at short as they give Crawford further seasoning/manipulate his service time in the minors.

Questions Remaining

As you’d expect, there are more questions than answers with this roster. For one, who’s the next veteran Dipoto will trade? If he has his way, it may be Encarnacion, though the Mariners haven’t been able to find a match for the declining, expensive 36-year-old thus far. Bruce, Swarzak, second baseman Dee Gordon and righty Mike Leake also come to the fore as in-season trade candidates, but nobody from that group carries much value at the moment.

In terms of players who are sure bets to actually help the Mariners win games this year, only excellent right fielder Mitch Haniger truly sticks out. They don’t know what they’ll get from Smith, who wasn’t much of a hitter from 2016-17, or Santana or Beckham; Bruce was abysmal last year, and he’s likely just an average-at-best player nowadays; Encarnacion will have a hard time replacing the departed Nelson Cruz; Narvaez’s troubles behind the dish limit his upside, and it’s surprising the Mariners didn’t find a more credible backup to him than David Freitas (a proven defensive stalwart like Martin Maldonado or Sandy Leon would’ve made sense); Gordon was horrid in 2018; and third baseman Kyle Seager’s both injured and coming off a poor season, temporarily leaving third to the underwhelming Ryon Healy.

The pitching staff’s best hopes are the untested Kikuchi and Sheffield and fellow lefty Marco Gonzalez, who wasn’t great at preventing runs last year (4.00 ERA) but turned in far more encouraging peripherals en route to 3.5 fWAR. Leake’s a decent, albeit unexciting, option in his own right, and Wade LeBlanc’s a back-end type at best. Meanwhile, for the many who relished watching Felix Hernandez at the height of his powers, witnessing the former Cy Young winner, 32, turn into a replacement-level starter has been heartbreaking. He and the Mariners may divorce at the end of the season, if not sooner should his stark decline continue. For now, the man who earned the nickname King Felix in his halcyon days is due $27MM in the last guaranteed year of his deal, rendering him immovable.

The Mariners’ bullpen was an above-average unit in 2018, when it finished 10th in fWAR and ERA, but it basically derived all of its value from Diaz, Nicasio, Colome, Pazos and fellow departure Nick Vincent. Beyond Strickland, it now counts other free-agent pickups Cory Gearrin and Zac Rosscup among its most prominent choices. There are a few interesting young arms kicking around the Seattle roster, but there’ll likely be a fair bit of turnover in the relief unit as the season goes along.

2019 Season Outlook

Expect the Mariners to tack another year onto their playoff drought this season. Seattle’s roster isn’t devoid of talent, but so much has to go right that it’s difficult to imagine the M’s busting out as a Cinderella team in 2019. Realistically, if you’re a Mariners fan, hope for growth from the potential building blocks on hand and for as many nonessential vets as possible to increase their trade value.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

A frugal offseason has given way to a lavish, triumphant spring for the Angels, who no longer have to worry about losing Mike Trout.  The inimitable center fielder is poised to spend his career in Anaheim after inking a decade-long extension last week.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The Angels entered the offseason with only two years of control left over Trout, unquestionably the preeminent player in baseball since he exploded on the scene in 2012. Team success eluded the Angels during the remarkable first seven seasons of Trout’s career, though, as they made the postseason just once (in 2014) and didn’t even win a single playoff game. With that in mind, it would’ve been understandable for Trout to hold off on committing to the Angels for the long haul. On the other hand, it would have been unforgivable for the Halos to not put forth an earnest effort to lock up Trout, who, at 27 years old, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the sport.

To the Angels’ credit, not only did they make an attempt to keep Trout in the fold, but they persuaded him to stay. The 10-year, $360MM extension the Angels gave the seven-time All-Star and two-time MVP stands as the richest contract ever in North American sports, yet the gaudy dollar figure still looks eminently reasonable. The future Hall of Famer is now in line to spend the entirety of his 30s and all of the 2020s in Anaheim, which will give the club plenty of time to capitalize on his presence going forward.

Whether the Angels are in position to take advantage of Trout’s place on their roster this year is in question. Before the Angels locked up Trout, they journeyed through a fairly low-key offseason which included a few modest free-agent signings and no headline-stealing trades. Perhaps if general manager Billy Eppler had his druthers, it would have been a different story. Eppler reportedly targeted a collection of high-profile free agents, including pitchers Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, Zack Britton, David Robertson, Joakim Soria and catchers Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos, but fell short in each pursuit. Still, the majority of Eppler’s prominent offseason acquisitions came at those positions, as he brought in two starters (Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill), a battle-tested closer seeking a rebound from a down season (Cody Allen) and an experienced catcher (Jonathan Lucroy). He also procured first baseman Justin Bour, who thrived in Miami as recently as 2017 but saw his production plummet between the Marlins and Phillies last season.

Before adding those five free agents, Eppler oversaw the Angels’ first managerial search since November 1999, when they hired Mike Scioscia. Trout was only eight years old at the outset of the Scioscia era, a run that included 1,650 regular-season wins and the franchise’s sole World Series title (2002). Scioscia, 60, stepped down after last season, paving the way for the Angels to hire another former major league catcher, Brad Ausmus, as their new skipper. Ausmus managed the Tigers to middling results from 2014-17, though the soon-to-be 50-year-old’s amenability toward analytics helped convince the Angels he merited a second chance atop a big league dugout.

Questions Remaining

The Ausmus-led Angels feature questions aplenty in their pitching staff, in part because of injury issues. Anaheim’s foremost starter, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani, won’t factor in at all as a pitcher this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Likewise, J.C. Ramirez is recovering from TJ surgery, having undergone the procedure nearly a year ago, while Andrew Heaney (elbow inflammation) and Nick Tropeano (shoulder discomfort) are also on the shelf.

It’s paramount for Heaney to return sometime soon, as he turned in 180 respectable innings in 2018 and is likely the Ohtani-less Angels’ No. 1 starter. That’s less a compliment to Heaney — who is solid, granted — than an indictment on the Angels, whose current group of healthy starters doesn’t include anything resembling a front-line option. Harvey qualified as an ace during a stretch with the Mets from 2012-15, but the Dark Knight has since logged a 5.39 ERA/4.76 FIP in 340 1/3 innings and undergone thoracic outlet surgery (in 2016). In fairness to Harvey, who turns 30 today, he did post decent numbers with the Reds after they acquired him from the Mets last May. If he can replicate that performance in Anaheim, he’ll justify the investment.

The club spent a bit less on Cahill, another righty with a history of injuries and inconsistency. The 31-year-old was effective in Oakland last season, though (albeit over just 110 innings), and the Angels are banking on a repeat in 2019. Harvey, Cahill, Tyler Skaggs (who has also dealt with his share of injuries, including this spring), Felix Pena, the just-acquired Chris Stratton and the just-optioned Jaime Barria represent the Angels’ top healthy starters at this point.

If you’re underwhelmed by that group, it’s hard to blame you. If you think the Angels should be going after free agent Dallas Keuchel, who’s inexplicably still available, you’d also be within reason. But Eppler insists he’s bullish on the Angels’ present mix of starters, which seems to make a Keuchel signing unlikely, as does a possible lack of financial wiggle room. The Angels have always run high payrolls under owner Arte Moreno, and that’ll be the case again this season, as they’re at upward of $176MM going into Opening Day. Moreno may not want to go significantly higher than that franchise-record sum. Furthermore, adding Keuchel would either push the Angels into luxury-tax territory or leave them within close proximity of that mark, potentially limiting Moreno’s willingness to approve in-season additions on the trade market. The Halos are currently about $21MM shy of the luxury barrier.

While the Angels’ payroll does rank toward the top of the majors, they’re not spending much on their bullpen. The lone expensive reliever on the roster is Allen, the former Indians closer who joined the Angels on an $8.5MM guarantee in the offseason. Allen has been outstanding for the majority of his career, which began in 2012, though the 30-year-old no longer looks like a shoo-in to offer quality production. Not only was Allen subpar last year, when all of his numbers trended downward to concerning degrees, but he has followed that up with a shaky spring in which his velocity has dipped. The Angels will need the light bulb to go on again for Allen once the regular season begins, especially considering their bullpen lost Blake Parker, Jim Johnson and Jose Alvarez during the winter.

Parker, Johnson and Alvarez were among the Angels’ five leading relievers in terms of innings last year, and each managed passable to above-average run prevention numbers. Alvarez was particularly good, yet the Angels traded him to the Phillies for righty Luis Garcia, who “has the characteristics we gravitate to: strikeouts, ground balls and big stuff,” Eppler said after the deal. It’s anyone’s guess how the trade will pan out, but for now, the loss of Alvarez leaves the Angels devoid of a lefty reliever on their 40-man roster. Allen aside, their bullpen is also lacking a righty with a long track record of success, though 2018 acquisition Ty Buttrey may be on the verge of a breakout if the 16 1/3-inning debut he made last season is any indication. As with Keuchel, Anaheim looks like an on-paper fit for free agent Craig Kimbrel, a possible Hall of Fame closer who’s somehow still without a team. Whether Moreno would sign off on a pricey Kimbrel addition is another matter, but the righty would sure help the Angels’ cause.

A Kimbrel signing wouldn’t answer the questions in the Angels’ position player group, where there are several. Trout, Andrelton Simmons and Ohtani are marvelous, and Justin Upton’s a valuable left fielder. Ohtani won’t return until at least May, however, and Upton’s going to the injured list with turf toe, leaving the Angels with just two guaranteed big-time producers in Trout and Simmons.

Potential Upton replacements in the just-selected Peter Bourjos, Jarrett Parker and Cesar Puello don’t inspire confidence, and unproven outfield prospect Michael Hermosillo (hernia surgery) could also open the season on the IL. Elsewhere in the outfield, while Kole Calhoun has been a better-than-average player for most of his career, he was a replacement-level performer last season.

Turning to the infield, third baseman Zack Cozart underwhelmed last season in the opening act of a three-year, $38MM contract. Lucroy has accounted for minus-0.9 fWAR dating back to 2017, while what remains of the once-amazing Albert Pujols totaled minus-2.1 in the same two-year span. Bour was little more than a league-average offensive first baseman in 2018. At second base, David Fletcher wasn’t much of an offensive threat during his 307-PA debut last season, but he starred as a minor league hitter earlier in the campaign and then stood out as a defender in his initial taste of the majors

The Angels still sought some insurance to help protect against another poor Cozart season and a sophomore slump from Fletcher, though, as they reportedly showed interest in Mike Moustakas, Josh Harrison and Troy Tulowitzki in free agency. In the end, they came away with a trade for the 30-year-old Tommy La Stella, who has been a playable bench piece with the Braves and Cubs over almost 1,000 PAs.

2019 Season Outlook

Trout and Simmons are something like five three-WAR players condensed into two, which raises the Angels’ floor to a considerable extent. Otherwise, there are so many performance- and injury-related concerns on Anaheim’s roster that it’s hard to consider the team a strong bet to break its four-year playoff drought. The good news is that the Angels could benefit from being in a league which lacks a surefire contender after the favored Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians. The Angels should be part of a several-team jumble fighting for the AL’s last postseason spot, which may only require 80-some wins to secure. The club is entering 2019 off back-to-back seasons of 80 victories, a number PECOTA projects it to match this year.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason moves?  (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Apart from a late push in the Bryce Harper market, the Giants stuck to mostly low-profile signings and acquisitions in Farhan Zaidi’s first offseason as the club’s president of baseball operations.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Giants Organizational Depth Chart | Giants Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Signed to a minor league deal last offseason, Derek Holland ended up being a major bargain for the Giants.  After four injury-riddled and ineffective years with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland got back on track by posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.88 K/9, and 2.52 K/9 rate over 171 1/3 innings for San Francisco in 2018.

The Reds, Rangers, and Mets were all linked to Holland over the course of the winter, though the southpaw ended up returning to the Giants on a one-year deal worth $7MM in guaranteed money, plus the club holds an option for 2020 that could result in Holland earning as much as $15MM over the course of the next two seasons.  There weren’t any big red flags in Holland’s peripherals from last season, so this new contract would also be well worth the Giants’ while if Holland remains healthy.

Drew PomeranzThere’s more of an injury concern in regards to new arrival Drew Pomeranz, who has had health issues over the course of his career and pitched only 74 innings last season due to a variety of arm problems.  At just a $1.5MM guaranteed salary, however, the Giants aren’t taking much of a financial risk on Pomeranz, and he is only a year removed from giving the Red Sox 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA pitching.  Pomeranz is penciled in as the fifth starter (behind Madison Bumgarner, Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Dereck Rodriguez). San Francisco has the likes of Andrew Suarez, waiver claims Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez (if they clear waivers and remain in the organization), and former first-rounder Tyler Beede as Triple-A depth options.

Hunter Strickland was somewhat surprisingly let go just prior to the non-tender deadline, though the Giants have been getting good results from many of their relievers this spring, leaving the club with a bit of a logjam for the Opening Day bullpen.  Rule 5 Draft pick Travis Bergen has to remain on the MLB roster all season or else be offered back to Toronto, though Bergen has pitched well enough to retain his position regardless.  Low-risk acquisitions Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott, Fernando Abad, or Pat Venditte could either provide depth if they remain in the organization, win jobs outright, or potentially move into roles left open should the Giants swing a late trade involving Will Smith or Tony Watson.

A change was made at backup catcher, as Nick Hundley will be replaced by pair of late-spring acquisitions.  After it seemed like rookie Aramis Garcia and minor league signings Rene Rivera and Stephen Vogt would vie for the job, San Francisco changed course by adding veterans Erik Kratz and Tom Murphy.  Rivera was cut loose, while Vogt and Garcia will provide additional depth in the minors.  It seems like enough of a logjam that a future move seems inevitable, though the Giants want to have plenty of catching on hand as Buster Posey recovers from hip surgery.  On the plus side, Posey seems to be making good progress and is on track to appear in the Opening Day lineup, though obviously the Giants will keep a close eye on their franchise player’s status.

Outfield was the Giants’ biggest need heading into the offseason, and the club ultimately brought in a number of new faces to supplement youngster Steven Duggar (who looks to play more or less every day in center field).  Former Rockies/Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra will make the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league contract.  The Giants essentially swapped one Rule 5 pick for another in trading for Connor Joe and letting Drew Ferguson return to the Astros.  Michael Reed, Mike Gerber, and Craig Gentry are also on hand, while incumbent Mac Williamson remains in the mix for at least part-time duty in left field.

Yangervis Solarte hasn’t appeared in a big league game as an outfielder since 2014, though the former Blue Jays utilityman has been working out in left field during Spring Training with an eye towards improving his versatility.  Between Solarte, Joe, and Alen Hanson, the Giants have several players with experience at multiple positions — potentially bumping Pablo Sandoval out of the mix.

Questions Remaining

Of course, the Giants could have made a much more newsworthy outfield upgrade had they landed Harper.  The team was something of an eleventh-hour entry into “Harper’s Bazaar,” though San Francisco ended up being Harper’s apparent second choice before the star free agent signed a (temporarily) record-setting 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies.  The Giants’ reported offer of 12 years and $310MM fell shy, though the team would’ve had to top the $350MM mark to truly outbid the Phillies due to California’s higher tax rate.

It goes without saying that signing Harper would’ve changed not only the trajectory of this Giants offseason, but also the team’s outlook for the next several years.  With Harper in the fold, the Giants would have indicated a full-fledged push towards contending while many of their highest-salaried players (Bumgarner through this season, Samardzija and Mark Melancon through 2020, and then Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, and Evan Longoria through 2021) are still with the team.  Along those same lines, the Giants also had interest in signing Yusei Kikuchi before the Japanese left-hander joined the Mariners.

Without Harper or Kikuchi, however, San Francisco left the offseason still straddling the middle ground between contending and fully rebuilding.  The club has to this point resisted overtures from rival teams and held on to Bumgarner, Watson, and Smith; yet the Giants also took a very modest approach to adding to their roster.  They weren’t going to deal any prospects from an already-thin farm system, and they settled for inexpensive free agent and trade additions after missing out on Kikuchi and Harper.

Joe Panik’s status is perhaps indicative of the Giants’ overall stance this offseason.  The team kept Panik in the fold rather than non-tendering him following an injury-shortened and replacement-level season, at a one-year, $3.8MM deal to avoid arbitration.  At the same time, however, San Francisco also looked into signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu while checking the trade market to see what could be obtained for Panik.  As it turned out, the Giants didn’t get that upgrade, and will instead go into the season with a known quantity in Panik who the club hopes will rebound.

A case can be made that Zaidi may be waiting to see how things shake out; come mid-season, he may have some new trade avenues or even the makings of a contending core.  After all, Posey, Belt, Bumgarner, Samardzija, Crawford, and Melancon were all limited by injuries in 2018 — better health from even a few of those names would likely make a difference in the standings.  A full teardown wasn’t really possible this winter anyway since so many of those same players have limited trade value, due to their down years, health histories, hefty contracts, no-trade clauses, or all of the above.

On the other hand, it’s also unrealistic to imagine that all of those veterans will enjoy bounce-back years.  With so many big contracts already verging on albatross territory for the team, one can’t entirely blame Zaidi for eschewing the type of expensive acquisitions that have backfired on the Giants in recent years.  Signing a Harper or a Kikuchi is one thing, though settling for a lower-tier free agent as a stopgap isn’t the type of move that would fuel a bigger jump up the standings.

If San Francisco isn’t contending by midseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club shift into a more definitive sell mode, at the very least on pending free agents like Bumgarner or Smith.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see the Giants explore being both buyers and sellers at the deadline — moving some short-term assets while taking on an expensive longer-term asset that could help them in 2020 or beyond.  If the Giants were willing to spend $310MM on Harper, they’re clearly open to exceeding the luxury tax threshold again in order to land premium talent.

Should 2019 end up being the last hurrah for this group of Giants stars before a rebuild, it’s perhaps fitting longtime manager Bruce Bochy will retire when the year is out.  The three-time World Series champion will manage a 25th season before stepping out of the dugout and starting his inevitable path to Cooperstown.

2019 Season Outlook

Frankly, there’s still a few days for the roster to change, which could shift the outlook. Regardless, an awful lot would have to go right for the Giants to go from 89 losses in 2018 to a playoff contender in 2019.  In a very competitive National League, the Giants could themselves battling to stay out of last place in their division, rather than challenging the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Blue Jays added some veteran stopgaps to their roster, while saying goodbye to some of the best-known members of their 2015-16 playoff teams.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Blue Jays Organizational Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The rotation was Toronto’s clearest area of need going into the offseason, and as expected, the Blue Jays added some inexpensive veteran arms to bolster a very young crop of starting pitchers.  Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, and (eventually) Clay Buchholz will all take turns in the rotation, backing up the incumbent top two of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.

Matt Shoemaker

Naturally, there’s a lot of uncertainty baked into that mix given the lengthy injury histories of Shoemaker, Buchholz, Sanchez, and even Stroman and Richard last season.  There’s also the looming possibility that any of these pitchers could find themselves on new teams by the trade deadline.  As such, Ryan Borucki is expected to receive plenty of starts throughout the course of the year, though Borucki himself will miss some time to begin the season.  One of Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, Sam Gaviglio, and the newly-acquired Trent Thornton will fill in while Borucki is out and until Buchholz gets game-ready, and these younger arms are likely to get their share of innings before 2019 is out.

Could Toronto’s rotation end up being a quiet strength for the team?  It would require a lot of bounceback years, though it isn’t out of the question, especially if Stroman is healthy after an injury-filled 2018 and Sanchez has finally gotten over the finger/blister problems that have plagued him over the last two years.  Shoemaker’s last two seasons have been marred by injuries, though when he did pitch last season, his peripheral numbers were much better than his 4.94 ERA over 31 innings for the Angels would indicate.  Buchholz delivered an eye-popping 2.01 ERA over 98 1/3 innings of work for Arizona last season before a flexor mass strain in September ended his year.

Beyond the rotation, the Jays made their now-annual additions of relievers who could very well become midseason trade chips.  In the tradition of such past names as Joe Smith, Seunghwan Oh, and John Axford, this winter’s crop of bullpen signings included David Phelps, Daniel Hudson, Bud Norris, and temporarily Axford again, though he was released in the wake of elbow problems that will sideline the Canadian right-hander for at least a month.  (It wouldn’t be surprising, though, to see the Jays re-sign Axford to a new contract in short order.)

It should be noted that Hudson is the only of this group who is entirely healthy.  Norris has been limited in Spring Training, while Phelps won’t be back until midseason due to his recovery from March 2018 Tommy John surgery.  This timeline likely means that Phelps may not be dealt at all; his contract contains a flexible club option for 2020, as both the Blue Jays and the right-hander are seemingly approaching this year as something of an extended recovery period.

As with the new starters, the new relievers also have some upside.  Norris was the Cardinals’ closer for much of 2018, and Phelps was a strong contributor for the Marlins and Mariners in 2016-17 before undergoing surgery.  The combination of Hudson, Norris, Ryan Tepera (if healthy, that is) and closer Ken Giles gives the Jays a pretty solid end-game mix, and a recovered Phelps will only improve that group.  Sergio Romo and Adam Warren were a couple of the other bullpen names considered by the Blue Jays this winter.

After Aledmys Diaz was traded to Houston for Thornton, and Troy Tulowitzki was given an outright release, the shortstop position was seemingly cleared for Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Instead, however, it now looks like the Jays have an eye towards playing Gurriel all over the diamond since he might not be ready for the defensive challenge of being an everyday shortstop.  (Indeed, it looks like Gurriel will begin the year as a second baseman, since Devon Travis is again sidelined with knee problems.)

Minor league signing Eric Sogard could end up filling the utility infield void, and for the regular shortstop role, the Blue Jays turned to Freddy Galvis.  The former Phillies and Padres infielder is the picture of durability (he has played in every game in the last two seasons and averaged 158 games per year since 2015), and he brings more defensive stability up the middle.  How much stability is perhaps a question depending on which of Galvis’ strangely divergent defensive metrics you believe, as he went from a +3.2 UZR/150 and minus-5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2017 to minus-3.8 UZR.150 and +7 DRS last season.  Even just average glovework, however, represents an upgrade for a Jays team that was one of the league’s worst defensive clubs in 2018.

Questions Remaining

The Blue Jays moved squarely into rebuild mode last season, and this winter continued to be about setting the table for their future young talent.  To that end, the Jays bid adieu to some stalwart veterans — Marco Estrada departed in free agency, Tulowitzki was released, and Russell Martin was dealt to the Dodgers.

The latter two moves were more about roster clearance than financial flexibility, as the Jays are still on the hook for just under $54MM total owed in remaining contract obligations to Martin (through 2019) and Tulowitzki (through 2020).  Naturally, the team had little hope of finding a trade partner to eat even more of that figure given that Tulowitzki missed all of 2018, while Martin struggled to just a .194/.338/.325 slash line through 352 plate appearances.

Even accounting for these two big contracts and the $12MM remaining on Kendrys Morales’ contract, the Jays have very little in the way of future salary obligations; Gurriel is the only player owed money beyond the 2020 season.  This led to some speculation that Toronto could explore some of the bigger-name players available this winter, and the Jays did indeed raise some eyebrows when they were linked to some major Scott Boras clients (Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi) on the rumor mill.  While it seems like the Blue Jays made a legitimate bid for Kikuchi, the other talks were perhaps exploratory at best, and only Harper and Kikuchi would have fit as a true longer-term asset for a Jays club that doesn’t appear ready to contend until 2021.

Until then, the Jays will focus on determining which of their group of highly-touted young players will be part of this next core.  2019 will finally see the debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the Major League stage, as attention can finally turn to Guerrero’s prodigious on-field talents, rather than his status (perhaps shared with Kris Bryant) as the poster child for clubs keeping top prospects in the minors just long enough to gain an extra year of team control.  The situation became a moot point in Guerrero’s case, since his recovery from an oblique strain will keep him out until at least mid-April anyway.  Still, “oblique” might also be a good description of Jays executives’ increasingly far-flung arguments for why Guerrero wasn’t ticketed for the Opening Day roster, since obviously they couldn’t openly mention service time considerations.

The Jays’ plan is to deploy Brandon Drury at third base until Guerrero arrives, then move Drury to second base, perhaps in a timeshare with Gurriel or (if healthy) Travis.  Alternatively, Gurriel could split time between second base, shortstop, and left field, joining Teoscar Hernandez and Billy McKinney in the left field mix.  Outfielder Anthony Alford has enjoyed a big Spring Training, and he’ll get a longer look sometime this season if he proves capable of staying healthy and gets some more minor league seasoning.

As with the rotation, the Blue Jays’ position player mix is pretty fluid since at least some of the club’s veterans (Morales, Galvis, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar) are likely to be wearing different uniforms come September.  Smoak and Pillar each received a bit of trade buzz over the winter, with Smoak getting some attention from the Rockies and Pillar from the Giants, though no moves involving that group have ultimately been made. (A deal prior to Opening Day is still technically possible.)

Since Toronto faces a steep uphill battle in the AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team start shopping its veterans relatively early, potentially to get the jump on other sellers.  Especially now that the August trade period is no more, one wonders if the Jays might be open to trading Smoak, Pillar, and to a somewhat lesser extent Grichuk or Galvis at any time this season, rather than waiting until the July 31 trade deadline.

The same could be said of Stroman, Sanchez, or Giles, who project as Toronto’s top potential trade chips.  The Jays were reportedly open to dealing Giles this winter, while Stroman and Sanchez each received attention.  Stroman in particular drew significant interest from such teams as the Reds and Padres.  Stroman has made it clear he wants to stay in Toronto and was displeased at the lack of contract extension talks as well as the fact that the team wasn’t making a bigger push to contend in 2019.

Since the Jays’ asking price for the two starters was, in the words of Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, found by some suitors to be “uncomfortably high,” it makes more sense for Toronto to keep Stroman and Sanchez for at least the opening portion of the season.  This allows the two right-handers to rebuild their value by proving that they’re both recovered from their rough 2018 seasons.  If the Blue Jays see Stroman and Sanchez as part of the rebuild process rather than rotation cornerstones of their next contending roster, the team surely wants to maximize its return in potential trades, particularly after receiving relatively little for Martin and Josh Donaldson.  With both Stroman and Sanchez controlled through 2020, a healthy version of either pitcher would draw widespread interest.

2019 Season Outlook

Another year in the 73-78 win range seems likely for the rebuilding Jays, as a very tough division schedule will make it hard for even an improved team to gain much traction in the AL Wild Card race.  If Guerrero comes close to matching his incredible projected numbers, however, it’ll be an exciting year for Toronto fans.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After surprising their way to the the majors’ fourth-best record in 2018, the low-budget Athletics made a series of short-term commitments this past offseason.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Athletics Offseason Depth Chart | Athletics Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

A spate of injuries devastated the A’s rotation in 2018 and forced them to rely heavily on inexpensive signings Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson and Brett Anderson – three veterans whose best days looked long gone when the club added them. As it turned out, though, the trio held up reasonably well over a combined 282 1/3 innings and helped the upstart A’s to a wild-card berth. Cahill, the most effective member of the group, parlayed his strong 2018 into a $9MM guarantee with the division-rival Angels over the winter. Oakland also waved goodbye to Jackson, who hasn’t landed a deal with anyone despite his resurgent season, though it did bring back Anderson. Injuries have been a consistent problem during the 31-year-old Anderson’s career, including during his 80 1/3-inning showing last season, yet the A’s decided to gamble on him again for a mere $1.5MM salary.

Accompanying Anderson in the A’s rotation are fellow free-agent signees Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada, who started the club’s season-opening losses to the Mariners in Japan. The 33-year-old Fiers first joined the A’s in a trade with the Tigers last August, after which he logged solid numbers across 53 frames. While Oakland then non-tendered Fiers in lieu of paying him a projected $9.7MM via arbitration, it quickly brought him back on what it regards as more team-friendly numbers (two years, $14.1MM).

Estrada took an even more palatable pact – a guaranteed $4MM – as he seeks a rebirth after a couple down seasons in Toronto. For a pitcher who posted an abysmal 5.64 ERA/5.44 FIP last season, Estrada looks like a shrewd signing for the Athletics, as his fly ball-heavy skill set should mesh with their cavernous home park. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2018, no one managed a lower groundball percentage (24.0) than Estrada, who’s now shifting to a stadium that was death on fly balls last year. Plus, having generated truckloads of infield pop-ups in recent years, Estrada stands to benefit from the enormous foul territory at the Oakland Coliseum.

Estrada and the other members of the A’s revamped rotation will turn the ball over to a bullpen that was a premier unit in 2018, largely owing to elite closer Blake Treinen’s presence. In-season acquisitions Jeurys Familia and Shawn Kelley also helped the cause, and even though the A’s showed interest in re-signing both right-handers, they departed in free agency. Oakland still came away with a well-known bullpen prize on the open market, though, as its most expensive offseason deal went to longtime standout Joakim Soria. The 34-year-old looks as if he’ll be the primary setup man for the team, which also features other established choices in Ryan Buchter, Fernando Rodney, Yusmeiro Petit and Lou Trivino. Unsurprisingly, then, ZIPS projects the A’s to once again boast one of the majors’ most formidable bullpens this year.

On the position player side, a particularly notable offseason change came at second base, where the A’s bid adieu to Jed Lowrie in free agency but welcomed Jurickson Profar in a trade with the division-rival Rangers. Lowrie enjoyed an excellent pair of seasons in Oakland from 2017-18, though his age (34) and extensive injury history likely factored into the A’s decision to switch things up at the keystone. A few weeks after the Athletics landed Profar, Lowrie accepted a two-year, $20MM offer from the Mets, with whom he is already battling an injury. Profar is also under control for the next two seasons – albeit at a much lower rate ($3.6MM) in the wake of a somewhat disappointing Texas tenure. Although Profar has struggled for the majority of his career thus far, the light bulb may have gone on in 2018. To close out his time in Arlington, the switch-hitting Profar accounted for 2.9 fWAR over 594 plate appearances, hit .254/.335/.458 with 20 home runs and 10 steals, and struck out in just 14.8 percent of PAs.

Oakland also welcomed new faces at catcher, where it brought in Chris Herrmann on a big league deal and Nick Hundley on a minors pact, as well as in the outfield (Robbie Grossman, $2MM). Herrmann underwent knee surgery earlier this month, though, meaning he’ll open the season on the 60-day injured list. His absence paved the way for Hundley to earn a spot alongside holdover Josh Phegley. Now, the 35-year-old Hundley is filling the grizzled vet role Jonathan Lucroy took on last season. Lucroy joined Cahill in bolting for Anaheim in free agency, but the former’s production should be easier to replace. The respected Lucroy was a hit behind the scenes in Oakland, but the ex-star’s numbers on both ends left much to be desired. Of course, it’s up in the air whether the unexciting trio of Herrmann (when healthy), Hundley and Phegley will provide much of an upgrade over Lucroy.

Similarly, Grossman isn’t the most compelling addition. To the former Astro and Twin’s credit, however, he gets on base – a skill everyone knows the Athletics have long valued – which should make him an improvement over the 2018 version of the now-departed Matt Joyce. Grossman compiled a superb .371 OBP during his 1,310-PA stint with the Twins, thanks mostly to a 13.9 percent walk rate. But the switch-hitting 29-year-old brings minimal power to the table, which was especially true in 2018 (five home runs, .111 ISO in 465 PAs), and historically hasn’t provided much either in the field or on the bases. Despite his flaws, Grossman’s likely to play an important role in the A’s outfield – especially with Nick Martini recovering from a knee injury.

Questions Remaining

Concerns are plentiful in Oakland’s rotation, which will rely on a series of iffy options to begin the season. At this point, there’s nothing resembling a front-line starter among the quintet of Anderson, Fiers, Estrada, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt, though the 25-year-old Montas has at least provided reason for optimism this spring. More realistically, electrifying lefty Jesus Luzardo, 21, is the A’s best hope to conjure up an ace from within. However, in what has become an all-too-typical occurrence for the A’s, Luzardo’s on the shelf with an arm injury (a rotator cuff strain, to be exact).

If healthy, Luzardo could have cracked the A’s season-opening rotation, but he’ll instead miss at least the first several weeks of the campaign. Likewise, Sean Manaea, A.J. Puk, Jharel Cotton, James Kaprielian and Daniel Gossett will sit out some or all of 2019, leaving Oakland in a similar position to last year. The A’s still found a way to adapt and survive then, thanks in part to the decision to mimic the Rays’ opener strategy down the stretch. The role proved beneficial for veteran reliever Liam Hendriks, who came back from a demotion off the A’s 40-man roster late in the season to thrive (playoff loss to the Yankees notwithstanding). We could see more of Hendriks & Co. at the start of games in 2019 if Oakland’s not content with its collection of traditional starters.

As mentioned earlier, the A’s pitchers are slated to throw to a weak-looking mix of catchers. Relative to his position, Hundley has been fine at times with the bat, but his defensive numbers have been poor for the most part; Phegley has been one of the worst hitters in baseball since 2017 (59 wRC+); and Herrmann’s a journeyman who hasn’t offered much as either as a batter or a defender across 898 major league PAs. No matter, Oakland’s leaning on that behind-the-plate trio as it counts down to the arrival of 24-year-old prospect Sean Murphy – a player Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs believe could blossom into “an above-average regular” in the bigs. It’s possible Murphy’s forthcoming promotion prevented the A’s from making a splashier offseason pickup behind the plate. They did show interest in Wilson Ramos and Kurt Suzuki, but both signed affordable deals elsewhere. Meanwhile, even though Yasmani Grandal languished on the market before settling for a shockingly reasonable guarantee (one year, $18.25MM with Milwaukee), Oakland never pursued the former Padre and Dodger.

Aside from catcher, it appeared the A’s were going to enter the season without any massive concerns in their position player group. Unfortunately, that changed this week with the news that first baseman Matt Olson underwent right hand surgery, which will cost him at least the first month of the season. While manager Bob Melvin had the luxury of writing Olson’s name into his lineup 162 times last year, he’ll have to temporarily make do with a Profar-Mark Canha platoon at first, according to executive vice president Billy Beane. Profar’s the team’s No. 1 second baseman, though, which means it’ll turn to Chad Pinder or Franklin Barreto at the keystone when he has to occupy Olson’s spot. When Olson does come back, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll suffer any ill effects from his injury; if not, an infield consisting of him, Profar, superstar third baseman Matt Chapman and shortstop Marcus Semien looks enviable on paper. Meanwhile, although the Athletics lack a Chapman-type franchise player or a Khris Davis-esque masher among their main outfielders, Stephen Piscotty, Ramon Laureano, Canha, Pinder, Grossman, Barreto, Martini, Luis Barrera, Skye Bolt and Dustin Fowler do comprise a deep and respectable group of 40-man possibilities.

2019 Season Outlook

Oakland has somewhat frequently overcome the odds during the long-running Beane era, and it’ll have to do the same in 2019. Even before the Athletics lost Luzardo, Olson and the first two games of their season, they weren’t a popular pick to repeat their 2018 success. Indeed, on the heels of a modest offseason, PECOTA projects the A’s for just 78 victories – 19 fewer than last year’s total.

How would you grade the Athletics’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The fruits of a relatively short rebuilding effort in Milwaukee manifested with an NL Central division title, a NLCS run against the Dodgers and dramatic increase in expectations after years of mediocrity.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Milwaukee Brewers depth chart | Milwaukee Brewers payroll outlook]

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason with a pair of catchers who combined to hit .246/.296/.379, the Brewers had a clear need behind the plate. While Manny Pina and Erik Kratz gave the Brewers quality defense behind the dish in terms of framing and controlling the running game, their lack of offense was a clear negative. Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff clearly agreed, and while they didn’t feel strongly enough to make a significant play for a free agent on a multi-year contract, they deftly swooped in and secured Yasmani Grandal, the open market’s top catcher, on a one-year deal worth $18.25MM after Grandal apparently didn’t find any multi-year offers that were to his liking (despite numerous reports indicating that he received substantial multi-year offers from the likes of the Mets, Twins and White Sox).

Maybe Grandal was stung a bit by recency bias — his postseason showing was nightmarish on both sides of the ball — but the 30-year-old finished second among MLB catchers in total home runs and led all MLB backstops (min. 300 PAs) with a hefty .225 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Salvador Perez is the only catcher with more home runs than Grandal over the past four seasons, and among qualified backstops, only Gary Sanchez and Robinson Chirinos have higher ISO marks. That the Brewers were able to add one of baseball’s most powerful catchers — one who consistently rates as a premium framer with a solid caught-stealing rate — on a one-year pact is a feather in an already plumage-laden cap for the front office.

Entering the 2018 season, much was made of Milwaukee’s glut of outfielders, and that relative logjam came into greater focus this winter with both Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton out of options and clearly lacking a path to playing time with the Brewers. Broxton and Santana were turned into a potential bullpen piece — Bobby Wahl, though he’s since unfortunately suffered an ACL tear — and another interesting outfielder with a minor league option remaining: Ben Gamel. Stearns & Co. further bolstered the ’pen by swapping their Competitive Balance draft pick for lefty Alex Claudio. Unlike many other trades in which teams have shipped off those rare, tradeable picks for marginal assets or even pure salary relief, the Brewers landed a useful left-handed arm who’ll make their club better in 2019 and beyond, as Claudio can be controlled through 2021.

In need of infield help after spending an otherwise successful season jamming square pegs into second-base, third-base and shortstop-shaped holes, the Brewers did sign a pair of infielders in the form of a returning Mike Moustakas and former Padre Cory Spangenberg. The return of “Moose” will at the very least bolster an already formidable Milwaukee lineup by adding a bat that’s swatted 66 long balls over the past 300 games.

Questions Remaining

The Moustakas addition seems like an apt place to transition from the “needs addressed” to the “questions remaining” section, given that it’s anyone’s guess as to how Moustakas will adjust to his new role as a second baseman. He’s never played the position in the past but is getting his feet wet this spring in preparation for serving as Milwaukee’s everyday option at the position. It’s an unorthodox move but one that is backed by at least some logic. Milwaukee is typically aggressive in its infield shifting. Moustakas has played on the right side of the infield in the past when shifting there against left-handed hitters as a third baseman. The position may not ultimately feel *that* foreign to him.

Some may argue that the Brewers swooped in on Moustakas in a similar manner to the way they did Grandal. But Grandal was a more unique asset, whereas the Brewers paid a fairly sizable (but still reasonable) sum to once again play a veteran infielder out of position. For the same $10MM they promised to Moustakas, the Brewers could’ve signed Brian Dozier or brought Jonathan Schoop back aboard to play his natural position. Even if the Brewers weren’t keen on a bounceback candidate at the position, Moustakas’ $10MM guarantee is the same as Jed Lowrie’s annual rate on his two-year pact with the Mets. It’s only slightly shy of the $12MM annual value on DJ LeMahieu’s two-year deal with the Yankees. Even at his more natural third base, Moustakas would only be projected to be worth two or two-and-a-half wins above replacement. For this price, it seems like the Brewers could’ve gotten a natural second baseman without incurring much long-term risk.

For the second straight spring, however, the largest question many have regarding Milwaukee is whether the team should have added more starting pitching. Jhoulys Chacin, last winter’s lone big league signing, is slated to take the ball on Opening Day. But the Brewers didn’t add a starter this winter after bidding adieu to both Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, instead banking on the return of a healthy Jimmy Nelson and doubling down in their faith in young righties Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta — each of whom tallied significant innings in the Majors last season. That group, paired with holdovers Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Junior Guerra, will be tasked with rounding out the starting staff and at least getting the Brewers to the trade deadline.

It’s a lot to ask from a unit full of pitchers that either have lacked consistency (Anderson, Davies, Guerra) or lack MLB starting experience (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta), but the group undeniably features plenty of talent. A healthy Nelson in 2017 was one of the National League’s most valuable starting pitchers. Burnes and Woodruff were well-regarded as prospects and both impressed in bullpen roles last season, with Burnes in particular showing off-the-charts spin on his fastball and curveball. Peralta was serviceable in 14 starts last season with secondary stats that were more impressive than his pedestrian 4.25 ERA.

It’s technically possible that the Brewers could make one final late-offseason splash, bringing in Dallas Keuchel or striking some kind of surprise trade, but the Brewers have continually showed faith in their internal arms by eschewing significant free-agent splashes over the past two offseasons. Owner Mark Attanasio would need to further push up an already club-record $128MM Opening Day payroll projection, and any new free-agent addition would need time to get up to speed and get into game-ready shape. Frankly, another addition doesn’t seem all that likely, but if Milwaukee’s starting staff is in tatters early in the year, there’ll be no shortage of people wondering why the reigning division champs opted to forgo a more stable addition.

Looking beyond the rotation, there’s even a bit of uncertainty within the team’s vaunted bullpen. Specifically, Jeremy Jeffress is battling a shoulder issue that has limited him substantially in Spring Training. Jeffress was a major part of getting the Brewers to the postseason in ’18, forming a dominant trio with Josh Hader and Corey Knebel. Those two should still be a powerful one-two punch late in games, but any relief corps is going to look a bit less imposing when you subtract a reliever who posted a 1.29 ERA in 76 2/3 regular-season innings.

2019 Season Outlook

Rotation questions aside, the Brewers will boast a formidable lineup with  quality overall defense (particularly from Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia) and a bullpen featuring two of the game’s top strikeout specialists. A return to health for Nelson and even one of the aforementioned young arms cementing himself as a viable mid-rotation starter would quiet a substantial portion of fan concern regarding the pitching staff, and if two members of that youth movement step up, the Brewers will look wise to have shown restraint.

A much-improved Reds roster, the Cardinals’ acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt and potential returns to health for Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish in Chicago should make the NL Central an even tougher division for all five clubs in 2019. But the Brewers could be getting a star of their own back (Nelson), and they’ll still head into the upcoming season not just with an eye on defending the division crown but with legitimate World Series aspirations. They’ll quite likely need another acquisition or two at baseball’s now-single trade deadline on July 31 — there won’t be another run of August acquisitions for Stearns & Co. — but I’ll be surprised if Milwaukee isn’t firmly in the postseason hunt once again this summer.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason? (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Even though they’re in a rebuild, the Rangers are entering the 2019 season off an active winter. The club welcomed a new manager (former Dodgers third base coach Chris Woodward) and a bevy of free agents, lost the iconic Adrian Beltre to retirement and put an end to the Jurickson Profar era.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Texas Rangers Depth Chart | Texas Rangers Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

Few teams’ rotations were worse off in 2018 than the Rangers’, whose starters posted a bloated 5.37 ERA with a similarly horrid 5.18 FIP. Among their regular rotation possibilities, only Mike Minor and Cole Hamels, the latter of whom went to the Cubs in a midseason trade, offered passable production. Consequently, the rotation was an area of major emphasis for general manager Jon Daniels during the offseason.

Daniels swung yet another deal with the Cubs, landing southpaw Drew Smyly in a November trade that amounted to a cost-cutting move for Chicago, and then signed fellow veteran starters Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller in free agency. Smyly, Lynn and Miller are now penciled into the Rangers’ season-opening rotation alongside Minor, who frequented trade rumors during the winter but ultimately stayed put, and Edinson Volquez. It’s not the most inspiring group on paper, especially considering Smyly, Miller and Volquez are each coming off back-to-back injury-wrecked years; still, it does look like a clear improvement over last year’s rotation – one that received flat-out awful numbers from almost every member of an eight-man crew consisting of Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, Matt Moore, Ariel Jurado, Yohander Mendez and Drew Hutchison. Of that octet, which combined for 99 starts in 2018, only Jurado and Mendez are still members of the Texas organization.

When enemy offenses chased Rangers starters from games last season, they turned to a mediocre bullpen that got worse when the team dealt Keone Kela, Jake Diekman and Jesse Chavez at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Rangers followed those deals by trading yet another key reliever, Alex Claudio, in December, acquiring a top 40 draft pick from the Brewers for his three years of control. It’s anyone’s guess whether that selection will bear fruit for the Rangers, but it’s a worthwhile return for what the non-contending team believed was a superfluous reliever.

To help make up for their departed relievers, the Rangers are turning back to the 35-year-old Chavez, whom they reunited with in free agency on a reasonable contract. Chavez was terrific last season, though more so with the Cubs than the Rangers, while fellow veteran addition/inexpensive signing Shawn Kelley logged quality numbers between Washington and Oakland. The same wasn’t true for the Rangers’ other major league bullpen signing, Zach McAllister, who bombed in Cleveland and Detroit. But the hard-throwing McAllister entered 2018 with a nice track record, and on a $1MM salary, he’s worth a try for Texas. The Rangers’ hope is that Chavez, Kelley and McAllister will help form a capable bridge to lights-out closer Jose Leclerc, who tore through opposing lineups during a jaw-dropping 2018 en route to a team-friendly contract extension.

Leclerc and the other holdovers from the Rangers’ 2018 staff are adjusting to a new regular catcher, free-agent signee Jeff Mathis, who’s succeeding Robinson Chirinos. The swap may be a boon to the Rangers’ pitchers, as Chirinos – whom the club cut in November – is nowhere near Mathis’ level defensively. Whereas Chirinos has been a minus defender throughout his career, particularly in 2018, Mathis has been regarded as a top-notch backstop during his long tenure in the majors.

Defense has been the main calling card for Mathis, but it was only part of the all-around greatness of Beltre, who closed the door on both an eight-year Texas tenure and a Hall of Fame career in November. In the wake of Beltre’s exit, Daniels was tasked with trying to replace a Rangers legend, one who was a cornerstone on the field and a revered leader in the clubhouse. Stepping in for Beltre is an unenviable gig, then, and veteran free-agent signing Asdrubal Cabrera and largely untested trade pickup Patrick Wisdom figure to get first dibs.

Once the crown jewel of the Rangers’ farm system, Profar saw plenty of action with Beltre in the Rangers’ infield in recent seasons. It took the 26-year-old Profar until 2018 to turn into a real major league asset, though, and once Beltre left, he looked like the in-house favorite to man third base. Instead, unable to extend Profar, the Rangers decided in December to send him and his remaining two seasons of control to the division-rival Athletics for a futures package. Of the players Texas landed in the trade, two – righty Brock Burke (No. 9) and infielder Eli White (No. 16) – are now among their top 20 prospects at MLB.com.

While it appears the Rangers’ post-Beltre and Profar infield will consist of Cabrera and Wisdom at third, Logan Forsythe could also see time at the hot corner, among other spots. Forsythe was a valuable player with the Rays from 2015-16, an 1,182-plate appearance span in which he totaled 6.7 fWAR, but he faded with the Dodgers and Twins between 2017-18 (1.6 fWAR over 855 PAs). As a result, Forsythe had to settle for a minor league contract. He’s one of several well-known veterans who accepted minors pacts from Texas, which also signed outfielder Hunter Pence, infielder/pitcher Matt Davidson and righty Jason Hammel in recent months. Pence is back in Texas, where he stood out with the Astros from 2007-11, and trying to put two straight horrendous seasons with the Giants in the rearview. It seems he and Hammel will make the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, while Davidson’s battling with Forsythe to do the same. As a league-average, high-strikeout hitter who offers little defensive value, Davidson’s unexciting in a conventional role. However, the ability to serve as a mop-up man makes Davidson unique and could help him earn a spot over Forsythe.

Questions Remaining

As a club coming off a 67-win season, questions unsurprisingly abound in Texas. For one, there isn’t a surefire star in their position player group, as only three returnees (Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo) posted at least 2.0 fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, fellow holdovers Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman and Delino DeShields are all back in starting roles after notching below-average production in 2018, and the newcomers bring their own question marks.

As good as he is behind the plate, Mathis has never resembled a big league-caliber hitter, which means the Rangers will miss Chirinos in that regard. At $4.5MM, it was surprising the Rangers jettisoned the offensively solid Chirinos, defensive shortcomings be damned. Then there’s the 33-year-old Cabrera, who only has 67 third base appearances on his resume and has become a defensive disaster in the middle infield as he has aged. To Cabrera’s credit, he has been well above average as a hitter over the past few seasons, which is more than can be said for most of the other Rangers slated for prominent roles this year.

On the pitching side, it’s up in the air whether the Rangers’ starters can hold up and perform effectively. Lynn has generally done both, though the 31-year-old did have an up-and-down 2018 split between the Twins and Yankees. Smyly was quite promising during his tenures with the Tigers and Rays earlier in his career, but he hasn’t pitched since 2016 and is returning from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Miller’s a former standout prospect who prevented runs at an excellent clip with the Cardinals and Braves from 2012-15, but he has been awful since then and, like Smyly, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. He then missed nearly all of last season on account of elbow problems. And Volquez, yet another TJ patient from 2017, sat out all of last year. That aside, the 35-year-old journeyman has never been the picture of consistency in the majors.

With the Rangers unlikely to contend in 2019 and all of their starters (with the exception of Lynn) under control for two or fewer years, any of them could turn into midseason trade chips if they stay healthy and turn in respectable production. No one else on the roster – not even Leclerc – looks untouchable either, though Choo would be especially difficult to move because of the $42MM coming his way through 2020. It’s also possible the Rangers would rather extend players like Gallo and Mazara, whom they hope are true linchpins, than part with them. There may be less urgency with the power-hitting Gallo, who has four years of control left (including one more pre-arb season) compared to Mazara’s three. But the 25-year-old Gallo has unquestionably been the better major leaguer to this point. Mazara, 23, is teeming with upside, yet he has managed an unspectacular 92 wRC+ with 1.5 fWAR in 1,720 plate appearances.

Given that neither Mazara nor anyone else in Texas has come to the fore as a franchise player, there’s a case that the team should have pursued Bryce Harper and Manny Machado during their months-long trips to free agency. Both players recently ended up with historic contracts – the Phillies gave $330MM to Harper, and the Padres committed $300MM to Machado – but it’s possible the Rangers could’ve afforded either. After all, the franchise has been an above-average spender since Ray Davis and Bob Simpson purchased it in 2010, and Andrus and Odor are the lone pricey long-term commitments on its books. Moreover, either Harper or Machado could have generated further excitement for the Rangers as they gear up to open a new ballpark in 2020. Ultimately, though, the players’ high asking prices scared off the Rangers, who – like the rest of baseball – won’t have a chance to bid on a pair of 26-year-old superstar free agents again in the near future. It seems like a missed opportunity for Texas, which is devoid of a headlining major leaguer and, per ESPN’s Keith Law, only has the game’s 20th-best farm system.

2019 Season Outlook

If the Rangers are going to push for a playoff spot in 2019, a ton of things have to go exactly right, including health and effectiveness from their rickety rotation and high-caliber performances from position players such as Gallo, Odor, Andrus, Mazara and Willie Calhoun. More realistically, a third straight lean year seems to be in the offing for Texas, which hasn’t sniffed the .500 mark since 2016. That said, it could still be a productive campaign for the Rangers if some of their young players prove to be legit building blocks and expendable veterans boost their stock leading up to the trade deadline.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Colorado ballclub only added a few pieces to its depth chart this winter, but that doesn’t mean the offseason lacked for consequential decisions.

Major League Signings

  • Daniel Murphy, 1B: two years, $24MM (includes mutual option)
  • Total spend: $24MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired RHP Jordan Foley from Yankees in exchange for RHP Jefry Valdez
  • Acquired C Chris Rabago from Royals in exchange for cash considerations (selected in Triple-A Rule 5 from Yankees)

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rockies are coming off of repeat postseason appearances for the first time in franchise history. While the club was bounced in the play-in game in 2017 and was swept in the NLDS last year by the Brewers, fans still savored the first full playoff series since 2009. If they’re to make it back into the tourney for a third-straight campaign, the Rockies will have to do so without a few key members of their recent squads — and without any major outside reinforcements.

This is an organization that has bet on its own players more than most in recent years. GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t swing many trades, preferring instead to hang onto and promote the club’s homegrown talent. His two biggest contracts have come via extensions, not free agent signings. Last year, it was outfielder Charlie Blackmon who secured a big payday to forego the chance to test the open market at the end of the season. This time around, the club took on the much more difficult task of working out a deal with franchise centerpiece Nolan Arenado.

Perhaps the game’s best third baseman, Arenado is a premium defender and excellent power hitter who is only entering his age-28 season. His new deal includes a hefty $33.4MM average annual salary for its newly guaranteed seasons, a record for a position player. And it provides him with full no-trade rights and an opt-out opportunity after the third year. The terms hardly represent a bargain for the Rox, who’ll bear the risk of injury or performance issues that arise during the season to come. But the team surely had legitimate concerns about what it would take to retain Arenado if he was allowed to test the open market.

The Rockies also reached another, less-consequential late-February extension by working out a new deal with manager Bud Black. He’s now under contract through 2022. Black, Bridich, and owner Dick Monfort have seemed to be on the same wavelength since the former took over for Walt Weiss before the 2017 season. It’s hard to argue with the results.

There’s a hypothetical world where second baseman DJ LeMahieu also ended up staying around. The club had interest, but it always seemed a bit lukewarm after a club-wide offseason letdown in 2018. LeMahieu ultimately signed with the Yankees for the same guarantee that the Rockies gave his replacement, Daniel Murphy.

Though he’s closing in on his 34th birthday and wasn’t fully himself last year after returning from knee surgery, Murphy looks to be a clear upgrade with the bat. He’s nowhere near LeMahieu’s class with the glove, but the Rockies won’t be asking him to line up at second base. Instead, the club will slot Murphy in at first while moving around some other pieces to fill in other areas. (More on that below.)

Otherwise, the Rockies’ only outside acquisitions rate mostly as depth. Mark Reynolds may crack the roster as a bench bat, while Alec Asher and Chi Chi Gonzalez boost the pitching ranks. In a manner of speaking, the team addressed one other need by bidding adieu to veterans Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. That’s no slight to the players — both have certainly had their moments through the years and could still be useful contributors. But the organization probably ought to have exchanged pleasantries with Gonzalez for good last winter. Doing so now, while also letting Parra walk, cleared out a left-handed-hitting logjam in the outfield for some younger, cheaper, higher-upside players.

Questions Remaining

We just touched upon (but didn’t name) a few players whose changing status in the Colorado organization could make or break the coming season. Outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia now have an opening to seize major roles. The same holds true for second base/utility candidates Ryan McMahon and Garret Hampson. There’s a fair bit of ceiling for that foursome, though it’s still anyone’s guess which of them will turn out, and to what extent.

Putting real trust in these players carries obvious risk, though it also made good sense. It’s a deserving slate of players. And the Rockies were pressed for payroll space after making some fairly significant outlays on the open market in recent seasons. Mid-season trades can always be considered; it’s worth noting, too, that prized youngster Brendan Rodgers could force his way into the infield picture.

Dahl and Tapia are highly cost-efficient, interesting young players. But neither hits from the right side, meaning that the Rockies again have a skewed outfield mix. That was addressed in part by one other roster shift related to the Murphy-for-LeMahieu substitution. Ian Desmond will move off of first base and into center field, bumping Blackmon to a corner role. That’s a much more sensible alignment, though it remains to be seen how Desmond will handle the work up the middle now that he’s 33 years of age and is a few seasons removed from his previous (and only) season of work in center. Of greater consequence: can Desmond finally emerge from his doldrums at the plate and will Blackmon decline further from a productive-but-not-peak showing in 2018?

If there’s a glaring weakness on this roster, it’s behind the dish. Chris Iannetta is closing in on his 36th birthday and suffered through down season last year both with the bat and in the framing department. Tony Wolters is younger and scored well at earning strikes for his pitchers last year, but has been a dreadful hitter the past two seasons. While Tom Murphy remains an intriguing player given his offensive output in the minors, he’s a bit of a wild card. All things considered, it’s a bit surprising that the Rockies didn’t find a way to improve the catching situation this winter.

The bullpen is the other area of concern on paper. Adam Ottavino was the team’s best reliever last year, but he was never a realistic target in free agency. The club had little choice but to put its hope in a group of arms in which it is heavily invested. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn are all earning big bucks; only Davis was a quality performer last year, and he wasn’t at this best. Seunghwan Oh succeeded after a mid-season trade; the team will cross its fingers that he and Scott Oberg can repeat their strong seasons and that Chris Rusin can rediscover his form. Otherwise, we’ll see some younger arms in action. Antonio Senzatela will be sidelined to open the season but could factor in again once he’s up to speed; Yency Almonte, DJ Johnson, Harrison Musgrave, Carlos Estevez, Rayan Gonzalez, and Jesus Tinoco are among the options on the 40-man.

So … we’ve made it this far in a Rockies discussion without talking about the rotation? That’s a good thing, as the unit didn’t need upgrading and looks rather interesting once again. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland will hope to repeat as a quality 1-2 punch, with the talented Jon Gray still a threat to overtake both. Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis seem like reasonable choices at the back of the staff. Perhaps Jeff Hoffman can still tap into some upside; Peter Lambert could make himself a factor. Otherwise, there’s some depth in some of the hurlers listed already above, along with Ryan Castellani and minor-league signees Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Alec Asher.

2019 Season Outlook

Overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West will be a very tough task, but the Rockies probably have the best shot to do so of the rest of the teams in the division. The Wild Card won’t be an easy back-up plan, either, as a densely packed National League figures to be full of competition. It’s clear that the Rockies believe their window is open, as it continues to set payroll records and is probably on track to do so again next year (when including reasonable guesses at arbitration salaries). That could set the stage for some interesting trade deadline decisions.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

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