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The Obstacles Of Televising MLB Games Without Fans

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As other major sports leagues consider the possibility of televising games played in front of empty stadiums, Major League Baseball would love to do the same. The reality of the situation is that even quarantining teams in Arizona or Florida don’t solve all the issues. Too many obstacles remain to make such an arrangement safe under the current conditions, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. With the amount of asymptomatic carriers unclear, there’s no way to guarantee the health and safety of those involved. There are simply too many moving pieces. Even the most bare bones operation for a single game would involve 52 players, plus coaches, umpires, television crews, hotel accommodations, food service workers, drivers, etc.

There would be financial hurdles as well, mostly in terms of allocating the television money. The fact is, a huge proportion of game day revenue comes from fans in the stadium. Without fan revenue, there would have to be a conversation between the league and players about the players taking reduced pay. Teams would not be able to pay players at their normal rates, and while the league and the players’ union have worked diligently at forming peaceful accords throughout this trying time, the amity alone does not smooth all the edges.

Besides, the revenue from TV contracts would not be able to cover the costs, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Acee notes that those teams with their own television networks might be able to make enough for the games to be worthwhile, but for those negotiating with local networks, there would likely be a further reduction in revenue. With the terms of original television contracts altered under the circumstances, the contracts themselves would likely require a renegotiation as well. There have been a few games without fans (or with few fans) aired over the years, and the end product is always a little bit eerie. It might be better than nothing under the circumstances, but where revenue is concerned, every adjustment has trickle down effects that must be negotiated throughout the invested parties.

And of course, there’s the final, most important obstacle, which I’ll relay directly from Rosenthal: “Diverting resources from health care would be another concern. Baseball would need to conduct wide-ranging testing for the virus, isolate anyone who gets sick and provide proper medical attention. Such an effort would require outside assistance, the kind of resources the league could not justify drawing away from the general population in the middle of a public health crisis.”

How To Get A Job In Baseball, According To GMs

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Working in baseball operations for a Major League team is a dream job for many baseball fanatics.  If front office job-seekers are being honest, the pinnacle would be to one day land in the GM’s chair and call the shots on trades, free agent signings, and draft picks.  But in such a competitive field, how do you stand out?  What should you focus on to become as appealing as possible to an MLB team in a job interview?

Seven years ago, I polled many MLB executives on their advice for high school students with front office aspirations.  With so many new executives in the game since then, I decided to move a bit further down the career path and ask this question:

What one piece of advice would you give to a college student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day?

I posed this question to many of MLB’s top-ranking baseball operations executives.  Just like the rest of us, these people are currently sheltered in place with their families trying to get some work done in these difficult and strange times.  The following ten execs kindly took the time to answer my question: Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, Jeff Bridich of the Rockies, Ben Cherington of the Pirates, James Click of the Astros, Mike Elias of the Orioles, Derek Falvey of the Twins, Matt Kleine of the Brewers, Dayton Moore of the Royals, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Mets, and Dick Williams of the Reds.  Their answers are below.

I always think of the creative examples of how several of the current team’s GMs and Presidents got their foot in the door when asked this question. Without sharing those ideas specifically, I tell the individual who asked to think of something that they can bring to the table today that would be beneficial for a baseball operations team. Is there something that they do or can do that would have an immediate impact even if very small. It could be data analysis, programming, scouting, performance coaching, or leadership/communication application but ideally in the form of a project or deliverable and in a perfect world something that the organization doesn’t already have.

I believe that if those looking to get into baseball have excelled in other arenas they should think about how they have done that and share that in a way that is applicable to baseball as that is usually an attractive approach to those who are deciding to add to their operations teams.  – Ross Atkins, Blue Jays Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager

In terms of trying to trying to get into the world of baseball operations out of college, mindset and attitude will determine a lot. Create for yourself a mindset built around relentlessness, flexibility and hard work. The typical college school year and/or graduation timeframe do not lineup perfectly with when most Major League teams are hiring. So there could be some lag time between leaving college and getting hired.

Also, there usually are hundreds, maybe thousands, more applicants for jobs than there are jobs available. So chances are you’ll hear a bunch of “Nos” before you hear a “Yes”. That’s where relentlessness, flexibility and work ethic come into play. Your first opportunity in the baseball industry may not come in the perfect shape, size and package that you desire – but that’s OK. Be flexible in what you are willing to do and where you’re willing to work (be that departmentally or geographically).

At some point in your job search, you may feel like you are being annoying or that you’re bothering team employees too often. But know that relentlessness and persistence often pay off. It’s tough to count up how many times we have said over the years, “You have to give that person credit for his/her persistence,” whether we hired that person or not. If the worst outcome is that you are not hired (yet) but you are given credit for your relentless desire to work in the game, then it’s worth it.

Finally, look at the job search process like it is a job in itself. Put in the time. Make sure your resume is as good as it possibly can be. Ask thoughtful questions of any and all people who could help you. And always be ready – after you’ve sent off your resume and applied for a job, you never know when a team might call you. Those people who are ready for an in-depth discussion at a moment’s notice usually make a good first impression.  – Jeff Bridich, Rockies Executive Vice President & General Manager

It’s hard to narrow down to one but if I had to I’d say finding opportunities to solve complicated problems in groups. Almost all of the work we do in baseball operations focuses on assessing, predicting, or improving human performance. Human performance is complicated. Almost none of the work we do in baseball is done by ourselves. Just about everything we do is done by teams of people. So I’d say the more practice combining those two things the better.  – Ben Cherington, Pirates General Manager

There’s no magic bullet, no secret code to getting into baseball. All of us have a unique story about how we got here, so play to your strengths and put yourself in as good a position as possible to take any job that you’re offered, even if – especially if – it’s not in the area in which you see yourself long term. Every job is an opportunity to show what you can do, a chance to gain valuable experience and perspective on how the game works, and to make sure that this lifestyle is something you want to take on. Finally, don’t get discouraged! It took a lot of us a long time to get into the game, but it’s worth it.  – James Click, Astros General Manager

I think there are so many public forums today to showcase your work online. Whether it’s contract analysis, data analysis, or scouting evaluation that you want to do, you can start to build this body of work on your own, before anyone hires you. It is so helpful when we are interviewing when someone has a portfolio already started. It shows how you work and think, but also shows initiative and that you are truly passionate about this line of work.  – Mike Elias, Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager

I’d recommend that you don’t wait around for the perfect opportunity to come your way and instead find a way to create one. People who want to work in baseball will reach out and say they’re just waiting for that “break” to come their way. It’s not uncommon that a year later we’ll hear from them again still waiting for that opening to show up.

My suggestion – dive into a topic within the game that interests you, learn as much as you can about it, and then generate a work product that shows you have the baseline skills and passion to impact a baseball operation as soon as you walk through the door. Don’t be afraid to try something because you might fail. Of all the resumes we get, it’s the ones that are accompanied by a work product (and therefore a willingness to put yourself out there) that generate the most interest.  – Derek Falvey, Twins President of Baseball Operations

My advice to students is to create baseball-specific opportunities for yourself. Don’t wait for them to come to you. Volunteer to capture video, analyze data or operate pitch tracking software for your school’s team. Connect with your Sports Information Director and ask how you can help. Learn SQL. Learn Spanish. Contact baseball-centric websites and volunteer your time. Devise your own work product that attempts to solve meaningful questions you believe are currently unanswered within the public sphere. This is especially important because providing MLB clubs with examples of self-driven work product showcases your curiosity, thought process, and reasoning. It’s equally as important – if not more so – than a strong resume.

Students should also understand that our approach to hiring is shaped by our constant pursuit of the next marginal win. How can the next hire help us win games both today and in the future? Students who approach us with hard skills, novel work product and a strong resume quickly move to the front of that line.  – Matt Kleine, Brewers Vice President – Baseball Operations

As it pertains to teams and front office, compatibility is the most important trait. This will only exist if you have an above and beyond attitude with the commitment to do the jobs that others simply find meaningless. You must have an “others first” mindset and model that behavior. Finally, never stop looking at this game from the eyes of your youth. – Dayton Moore, Royals Senior Vice President – Baseball Operations/General Manager

1. When interviewing with a prospective employer/executive, be specific about the area in which you want to work. Prove to your audience that you have you done the research in his/her area of focus. This will enable you to be versed enough to hold a meaningful conversation. Those who want a “PARTICULAR job” are much more compelling than those who simply just want “a job.”

2. Be willing to work in any city that has an opportunity to further your pursuits. Don’t let geography limit your search.  – Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets Executive Vice President & General Manager

The best way to get your foot in the door is to figure out how you can solve a problem for me that I may not have even known I had. It makes for a much more effective cold call when you email your resume into an organization if you can articulate what you can do that the Reds are not doing today that could make us better. At least it makes us more likely to read further.

Keep abreast of the evolving trends in the industry and tailor your coursework accordingly. If you have baseball experience, focus on adding database management or machine learning or something technical. And if you are technically skilled, work on adding the baseball experience however you can.  – Dick Williams, Reds President of Baseball Operations

Rebound Candidate: Edwin Diaz

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If the Mets are going to maximize their potential and break their three-year playoff drought in 2020, odds are they’ll need a bounce-back effort from right-handed reliever Edwin Diaz. It’s still tough to believe how little the Mets got last year from Diaz, whom they acquired in December 2018 in what now looks like a regrettable blockbuster with the Mariners.

Diaz concluded his three-season Seattle tenure in epic fashion prior to the trade, turning in one of the greatest years a reliever has ever recorded. He collected 57 saves on 61 tries and logged a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with 15.22 K/9 and 2.09 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings en route to AL Reliever of the Year honors. The Mets surely expected Diaz to compete for the NL version of that award last season. No dice.

Diaz wound up ranking among the majors’ worst at preventing runs in his first year with the Mets, as he finished seventh last out of 158 qualified relievers in ERA (5.59) and well below average in FIP (4.51). The .377 batting average on balls in play hitters registered against Diaz had a hand in his sudden ineffectiveness, though he can’t simply be let off the hook for that. After all, someone who was so dominant just the year before (and very good in the prior two seasons) could no longer seem to keep meaningful contact at bay.

Thanks in part to noticeable decreases in groundball percentage and infield fly rate, Diaz’s hard contact jumped by 18.8 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. He ended up in the league’s second percentile in hard-hit percentage and its 11th percentile in average exit velocity against, per Statcast. His slider – a pitch that embarrassed hitters before – was battered to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average, helping lead to a whopping 16 percent increase in home runs. Many pitchers gave up more HRs than usual during a power-happy 2019, but most didn’t so to that extent.

Despite all of that, the 26-year-old Diaz shouldn’t be counted out just yet. He did show some positive signs last season, believe it or not. Diaz lost nothing on his fastball, a pitch that has averaged 97.3 mph in each of his major league seasons. His strikeouts and swinging strikes dropped from his dream ’18 effort, while his walk rate rose, but he was still far above average in the first two categories and passable in the third. In fact, his strikeout rate (39 percent; 15.38 per nine) ranked in the league’s 99th percentile, and he finished fifth among relievers in swinging strikes (18 percent). And it seems Diaz did deserve better when he threw his slider, evidenced by a .272 expected wOBA against the pitch.

None of this is to say Diaz will ever return to his absolute best form, but he does still seem to have what it takes to succeed in the bigs. Even if he does, the Diaz/Robinson Cano trade (the latter has also struggled so far) probably won’t go down as a positive for the Mets. But if Diaz can help stabilize the back end of New York’s bullpen and aid in a return to the playoffs, that would ease the pain to some degree.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

GM Trade History: Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins, the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto and the Phillies’ Matt Klentak. It’s time to head to Los Angeles to check in on the work Andrew Friedman has done since the Dodgers hired the former Tampa Bay GM after the 2014 season. Friedman’s no longer a GM – he has an even more prestigious title as president of baseball operations, and has overseen a perennial powerhouse (albeit one that has fallen short of World Series glory) throughout his reign.

Here’s a rundown of Friedman’s key LA trades, which are in chronological order and exclude minor moves (full details at transaction link):

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

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Friedman has no doubt acquired plenty of notable names since he arrived in Los Angeles. How do you think he has fared in trades during his time atop the Dodgers’ front office?

(Poll link for app users)

Grade Friedman's LA trades
B 42.79% (1,966 votes)
A 41.62% (1,912 votes)
C 11.73% (539 votes)
F 2.00% (92 votes)
D 1.85% (85 votes)
Total Votes: 4,594

Rangers Executives Take Temporary Pay Cuts

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As clubs brace for the possibility of layoffs or staff reduction while revenue is halted, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that several top-ranking Rangers executives have taken temporary ~20% pay cuts. The hope is to protect lower-level employees from being laid off or furloughed.

The salary reduction will hit the “top executive staff,” per Grant. That includes president of baseball operations Jon Daniels but not principal owners Ray Davis and Neil Leibman, neither of whom draws a salary. Further details aren’t known.

Whether and when the team will explore further cost-cutting efforts isn’t evident. We have yet to hear much from other teams around the league on this front. The situation is perhaps a bit different in Texas, as the club had been anticipating a massive revenue boost even as it pays (part of) the cost of its still-unused new ballpark.

By leaguewide agreement, all teams already decided to retain their usual salaried employees through the end of April. Players, of course, have been handled separately. And the slate of salaried employees generally does not include a large number of people you’d encounter during a typical trip to the ballpark. Teams each promised $1MM to hourly employees. But that left unaddressed the employees of third-party vendors. At least some teams have expanded their efforts to ensure some money flows to those workers.

Examining Rockies’ Ineffective Free-Agent Spending

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It hasn’t been an enjoyable 12 months for the Rockies organization. There was plenty of goodwill to go around heading into last season after back-to-back playoff berths and the long-term extension franchise player Nolan Arenado signed. But just about everything has gone in the wrong direction for Colorado since then. The club fell on its face in 2019, winning a meager 71 games, and its higher-ups have since irked Arenado. The five-time All-Star surfaced in trade rumors while making it known that he was unhappy with the Rockies’ inactivity over the winter.

The Rockies used the offseason to sign only one major league free agent – untested right-hander Jose Mujica – and for a relatively paltry $563K. Now, expectations are that they’ll again sit near the bottom of the league in 2020 (if there is a season). One key reason the team has slid down the standings and just might stay there? An utter lack of big-money success on the free-agent market.

Since general manager Jeff Bridich assumed the reins after the 2014 season, the Rockies have signed eight free agents to guarantees worth $10MM or more. All of those deals have been landmines to this point, and five of those players are still eating into the team’s payroll – one that Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs estimates will check in at a franchise-record $156MM on Opening Day. With that much cash already tied up, owner Dick Monfort was unwilling to authorize Bridich to spend in recent months. Maybe that’s a good thing, as you’ll see below…

2015-16 Offseason

Parra came to the Rockies off a solid season divided between Milwaukee and Baltimore, though he was anything but effective as a Rockie. He ended his tenure in Colorado with minus-1.1 fWAR and a .283/.320/.407 line (just a 77 wRC+ when adjusted for ballpark) over 1,249 plate appearances. Motte, meanwhile, didn’t even see his entire deal through. The Rockies cut ties with him after 2016, a year in which he notched a 4.94 ERA/5.68 FIP with minus-0.3 fWAR.

2016-17 Offseaosn

It was a head-scratcher from the get-go that the Rockies splurged on Desmond to play first base, as he didn’t look to have the bat to handle the offensively charged position and had spent his career to that point as a shortstop/outfielder. The gamble has not paid off at all for the Rox, who still owe Desmond $25MM through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout for ’22). The 34-year-old accounted for a hideous minus-1.7 fWAR during his first three seasons with the team and batted .252/.313/.429 (80 wRC+) in 1,474 PA. The Rockies moved him back to the outfield last year.

Colorado parted with Dunn late in 2019. He’s now retired after serving as a replacement-level reliever (minus-0.1 fWAR) with the club, though that looks like a generous assessment in light of his 5.93 ERA/5.02 FIP across 85 frames. Injuries limited Dunn to just under 35 combined innings in his final two seasons.

2017-18 Offseason

Evidenced by the $106MM spent on these three, the Rockies made a sincere effort to bolster their bullpen after 2017. The decision has blown up in their face. Davis, lights-out for most of his career, has been awful since joining Colorado. His contract’s still the largest ever on a per-year basis for a reliever, but his production has tanked. He pitched to an almost 9.00 ERA in 2019 and didn’t last the full season as the Rockies’ closer. Meantime, McGee and Shaw haven’t been much better, if at all. Combined, these three have registered minus-0.3 fWAR in 227 1/3 innings since they signed their contracts.

2018-19 Offseason

Desmond couldn’t solidify first base for the Rockies. Murphy hasn’t been able to, either. Once among the premier hitters in the game, the 35-year-old Murphy could only muster a line of .279/.328/.452 (good for a career-low 86 wRC+) and a personal-worst minus-0.2 fWAR in 478 PA.

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If you add up the fWAR for all these players, the figure amounts to minus-3.7. The value of the contracts the Rockies handed this group comes to $256.5MM. That’s a lot of wasted money, and it’s part of the reason the Rockies are in such an unenviable position at the moment.

Prospect Faceoff: Pearson v. Mize

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There might not be two finer right-handed pitching prospects in baseball than the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson and the Tigers’ Casey Mize. At least a few notable prospect outlets essentially have the pair neck and neck. Baseball America ranks Pearson as the game’s seventh-best farmhand and has Mize at No. 13. FanGraphs puts Pearson at No. 8, Mize 16th. And MLB.com slightly favors Mize, rating him seventh and Pearson eighth.

Between the two, Pearson seems to be closer to making his major league debut. The 23-year-old, whom the Blue Jays chose 28th in the 2017 draft, dazzled in spring training before the game shut down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Pearson fired seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and three walks, flashing triple-digit heat along the way. Carving up the competition isn’t anything new for the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Pearson, who just last season combined for a 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 101 2/3 innings divided among the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. It was the first extensive pro year for Pearson, who tossed a meager 1 2/3 frames in 2018 as he dealt with a back injury and a fractured ulna.

Whether Pearson will be handle a starter’s workload over the long haul is one of the few questions surrounding him. He only averaged a little over four innings per appearance in 2019, and Baseball America writes, “The fact that Pearson throws with so much velocity on every fastball also gives some scouts concerns about whether that’s a durability risk.” If Pearson can hold up, though, he clearly has the potential to evolve into a front-line starter at the MLB level.

Mize, 22, has ace upside in his own right. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and has lived up to the billing in the minors thus far. Mize doesn’t throw as hard as Pearson (his typical fastball clocked in at 93 mph in ’19), but he was just about untouchable last year in High-A (0.88 ERA over 30 2/3 innings) before earning a promotion to Double-A. Mize continued to wow at the second-highest level of the minors, where he recorded a 3.20 ERA and 8.69 K/9 against 2.06 BB/9 in 15 starts and 78 2/3 frames; however, Mize did miss a few weeks with shoulder inflammation, and the Tigers put an early end to his season to preserve him for future years. He returned during the spring with four innings of three-hit, two-run pitching, notching six strikeouts and a pair of walks.

If health doesn’t fail either of these hurlers in the coming seasons, baseball fans could be treated to another couple of electrifying arms. Which of the two would you take as a building block? (Poll link for app users)

Pick a prospect
Nate Pearson 53.19% (2,162 votes)
Casey Mize 46.81% (1,903 votes)
Total Votes: 4,065

Klutch Sports Agency Expands Into Baseball

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The Klutch Sports agency announced today that it has acquired the Tidal Sports agency. That’ll bring agent Brodie Scofield and his stable of clients into the growing multi-sport outfit.

Klutch and top agent Rich Paul are already well known in hoops circles. They represent LeBron James and other NBA superstars. A recent investment from United Talent Agency brought the promise of expansion into other sports, which is obviously now underway.

This acquisition comes at a moment when all professional sports are on hold. While NBA players had already earned most of their salaries for the 2019-20 season, MLB earnings are on hold pending the resumption of play. Under the deal agreed to between the league and union, ballplayers would collectively earn just $170MM (less than one-twentieth the expected tally) in 2020.

Of course, MLB players do stand to continue accruing service time even if no baseball is played this year. That’s of particular importance for some of the new Klutch clients, who’ll continue to be represented by Scofield — now the agency’s lead baseball representative.

As MLBTR’s database reflects, the baseball unit now housed at Klutch Sports features some rather prominent players. Astros star Alex Bregman is certainly the top client; he’s entering the first year of the extension he inked in the spring of 2019. Another client, Brewers infielder Keston Hiura, seems a potential extension candidate. Mets starter Marcus Stroman is slated to reach free agency in advance of the 2021 campaign. Other big leaguers on the client list include Kevin Gausman, Sean Newcomb, and Blake Swihart. And the Klutch stable now also features one of the game’s top prospects in Jarred Kelenic of the Mariners.

The Mariners Might’ve Struck DFA Gold

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Over the past couple of seasons, the Padres have struck gold on a pair of bullpen waiver claims, parlaying essentially free pickups of Brad Hand and Kirby Yates into utterly dominant performances at the MLB level over the life of multiple seasons. We see relievers whom we believe to be more or less fungible make the rounds on the waiver, DFA and minor trade circuit with great regularity, as clubs hope to acquire their own Yates or Hand. No one has had that level of success in recent years.

Enter Austin Adams. No, not that Austin Adams from Detroit/Minnesota. The one who pitched with Washington/Seattle in 2019. (Who can forget the hope we had for an Austin Adams vs. Austin Adams showdown when Minnesota and Seattle met over the summer?) With all due respect to Minnesota/Detroit Austin Adams, it’s the Seattle version that particularly intrigues to this onlooker. And yes, technically he wasn’t a waiver claim — but being acquired in a DFA limbo trade in exchange for a 23-year-old lefty with a career 5.00-plus ERA who has yet to reach Double-A isn’t much different.

Austin Adams | Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a good chance that casual MLBTR readers are wholly unaware that even one Austin Adams exists in MLB — let alone two. Some, meanwhile, may think it’s just one guy who’s bounced all over the league. More dedicated fans might be keenly aware of both! To this point, the career of each has been rather unremarkable. So why did I spend what I freely admit to be far, far too much time researching and writing this post? Here’s why!

In mulling potential names to profile as breakout candidates, I made a list of players who came to mind easily, then did some rudimentary perusals of various leaderboards for names that surprised me. Jeff Todd and I have spoken about how Adams had looked like a steal for the Mariners in his half season there, but I was nevertheless a bit stunned when browsing FanGraphs and seeing Adams’ name land eighth among 259 MLB relievers (min. 30 IP) in K-BB% at 30.6. His 2.71 SIERA tied him with Will Smith for 12th-best in that same subset and put him alongside top relievers like Ryan Pressly, Taylor Rogers, Ken Giles, Emilio Pagan and Seth Lugo. Not bad company! But we’re talking about a sample of 32 innings. I remained skeptical, although admittedly intrigued. Absent of actual baseball news on which to focus — why not dig in?

First up, his primary offering! Adams’ four-seam– wait, no. He throws his slider twice as much as his four-seamer. Only two pitchers threw sliders at a higher clip than Adams’ whopping 64.6 percent, and the pitch was filthy (just ask Christian Yelich). Opponents posted a pitiful .133/.217/.229 slash against it and swung through the offering at a gaudy 22 percent clip. Twenty-two percent isn’t quite Josh Hader/Nick Anderson territory — that’s nearly 25 percent — but it’s pretty darn close. Among 450 pitchers who threw 50 or more sliders in 2019, Adams ranked 25th in terms of spin rate (94th percentile). Not too shabby.

A look at Adams’ fastball initially proved similarly encouraging. He throws the pitch hard (average 95.3 mph) and spins it even better than his slider. There were 598 pitchers in the Majors who threw at least 50 four-seam fastballs in 2019. Only eleven of them had a higher spin rate. Surely, hitters struggled with Adams’ four-seamer just as much as with his slider! Or so I thought. In reality, they hit .263/.464/.632 against it. That… is bad.

However, that’s also a small sample of pitches within an already small sample of innings. Those numbers look terrible, granted, but the reality is that Adams threw his fastball infrequently enough that hitters were all of 5-for-19 against it. Two of those five hits were dingers, and another was a double. A four-seamer was also called for ball four on eight of the 16 walks he issued in 2019. That’s one way to inflate a slash line real quickly.

Adams is interesting in that his slider is so good, he uses the pitch at extraordinary levels when he’s ahead in the count. It’s part of the reason he’s averaged better than 14 strikeouts per nine innings in his minor league career and nearly 15 per nine in the Majors last season. But his fastball, despite its spin and velocity, hasn’t been effective. He throws it almost exclusively when he’s behind in the count or on the first pitch — such situations accounted for a whopping 131 of his 176 four-seamers in 2019 — and he doesn’t command that heater especially well. Only 90 of his 176 four-seam fastballs were thrown in the strike zone, and Adams tossed a first-pitch strike at just a 54.6 percent rate. The league average was 60.9 percent.

Unsurprisingly, Adams has battled walk issues throughout his career. He walked 16 hitters in his 32 frames last year, and that was actually an improvement over his career marks in the minors (5.8 BB/9 overall — 5.0 in Triple-A). Adams has also plunked two hitters in the Majors, hit 2.2 percent of the batters he’s faced in his minor league career and uncorked a combined 71 wild pitches in 384 2/3 innings. He’s no Rick Vaughn, but the “Wild Thing” moniker wouldn’t be a total stretch, either.

The contrast between Adams’ slider and fastball isn’t the only set of contradictory components to his skill set. A look at Adams’ .263 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) indicates that based on his K-BB numbers and the quality of contact he allows, hitters should be overwhelmed by him. Only 34 of the 631 pitchers who allowed at least 50 balls in play last year had a lower xwOBA. And yet, it’s clear that Adams’ strikeout prowess weighs heaviest of all in that evaluation. He tied for 461st in terms of opponents’ exit velocity within that same subset and was right in the middle of the pack with 8.3 percent of the balls put into play against him being considered “barreled” by Statcast.

Adams’ power slider, his ability to miss bats and his ability to keep the ball on the ground (50 percent) are a tantalizing combination that give him the makings of a potentially dominant reliever. His lack of fastball command and his propensity for surrendering hard contact have held him back to this point.

So — what to make of Adams? He’ll be 29 years old by the time the season begins — if it does at all — and will be on his way back from surgery to repair a torn ACL. That’s not as worrisome as an arm injury but certainly an issue that can have lingering effects. But the Mariners were clearly encouraged enough to keep him on the 40-man roster all winter despite undergoing that rehab-intensive surgery in September. It’s true that the bullpen-starved Nationals (for several years now) never even gave Adams a real look, but I’d wager they’d like a mulligan on parting with him after watching him pitch with the Mariners.

I’m by no means proclaiming that Adams is going to go full Yates this season and post a 1.19 ERA while leading the league in saves — although I will obviously delete this sentence demand retroactive credit if he does! — but he’s shown the tools to be the type of late-blooming breakout reliever that few saw coming, much like Yates and Hand were down in San Diego. It’s far easier to write “with better control of his fastball…” than it is for Adams to actual improve that skill, but the foundation for a knockout reliever is clearly in place here.

And if there’s a team that can afford to give Adams a lengthy look, it’s one like Seattle. The Mariners are in what they hope will be the final stages of an accelerated rebuild, and a healthy Adams could potentially play a notable role in that. The Seattle bullpen is a hodgepodge of fliers and young MLB hopefuls, with no set closer of which to speak. It’s entirely possible that a Adams could find himself holding down a high-leverage role and at last carving out a spot for himself in the big leagues. Of course, he’s also out of minor league options and coming off a major knee surgery, so this isn’t some surefire breakout candidate. But few relievers acquired at this low of a price have this dominant of a pitch and demonstrate as much potential as Adams did in 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBPA Approves Assistance Program For Non-Roster Players With Prior MLB Service

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The Major League Baseball Players Association on Friday approved a program intended to provide supplemental income to non-roster players with prior Major League service time, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links) and Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links).

Under the newly implemented program, players with at least a day of MLB service time who were in Major League camp on a non-roster deal as of March 13 will be eligible to receive anywhere from $5,000 (less than one year of service) to $50,000 (six-plus years) depending on their level of prior experience. The program, entitled the MLBPA Financial Assistance Program, is aimed at previous big leaguers who were not covered under last week’s $170MM settlement that would be paid out in the event of a canceled season because they’re not currently on a 40-man roster. It’s an optional program, per both Rosenthal and Brown, meaning that those with ample financial security may choose not to opt in.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds a more detailed breakdown of the payout structure, reporting that players with at least one day of service time but less than a full year are eligible for the minimum $5K supplement. Players between one and two years of service could accrue $7500, while players with two to three years could earn $15K. Those with three-plus years of service but fewer than six are eligible for a $25K payout, and players with six-plus years of MLB service can claim the full $50K.

The new program is likely of particular import to players in the lowest bracket — e.g. Pittsburgh’s James Marvel (22 days of MLB service), Texas’ Ian Gibaut (41 days), etc. — but may not be utilized by more veteran players who’ve earned tens of millions of dollars in their careers. It does not replace the $400 weekly stipend that was afforded to minor leaguers through the end of May, the majority of whom won’t benefit from this new program by virtue of the fact that they’ve never been on a 40-man roster and thus never been under the union’s umbrella. As the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets, however, the MLBPA wanted to provide some extra cover for those who’ve previously paid union dues while spending time on a 40-man roster.

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