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Astros Open To Adding Lefty-Hitting Outfielder

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The Astros finalized their big move of the offseason yesterday, announcing a five-year deal for star reliever Josh Hader. Between the Hader signing and the addition of Víctor Caratini on a two-year pact to serve as backup catcher, they’ve addressed their two biggest questions of the winter.

General manager Dana Brown pointed to another area they’re exploring as Spring Training draws nearer. “If we could somehow get a left-handed bat, preferably an outfielder with some speed, that type of package we’ll pounce on it,” he told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). That’s not to say that player type is an imperative, as Brown added the team is “really good” already.

Houston lost a left-handed hitting outfielder when Michael Brantley reached free agency (and subsequently retired). They project for a starting group of Kyle Tucker, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick. Star DH Yordan Alvarez could see some action in left field. Righty-hitting Corey Julks is on hand as a depth option, while Mauricio Dubón can bounce from the infield to the outfield in a utility capacity.

Tucker clearly isn’t in jeopardy of losing any time in right field. McCormick is coming off a very productive season. He hit .273/.353/.489 with 22 homers and 19 stolen bases over a personal-high 457 plate appearances. Even with a slightly elevated strikeout total, he looks like an above-average regular.

It’s a little less clear in center field. Brown declared at the Winter Meetings that the team was planning to use Meyers as their primary center fielder. Those comments were partially designed to cut off speculation that Houston could trade the 27-year-old. Even if the Astros are legitimately interested in giving Meyers first crack at the center field job, they could look for a potential platoon partner or contingency plan.

A right-handed hitter, Meyers is coming off a .227/.295/.382 showing in 342 trips to the plate. That’s not far off the .243/.296/.375 career batting line that he carried into last season. Meyers has had particular issues against righty pitching. He’s a career .220/.288/.351 hitter against same-handed arms. His production against southpaws (.270/.316/.440) is solid on the surface, although that’s inflated by a .365 average on balls in play that masks a 30% strikeout rate.

Overall, Meyers has been a below-average offensive player. To his credit, he’s an asset on the other side of the ball. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have each graded him as an easy plus defender in nearly 1500 career innings in center field. Giving Meyers the bulk of the center field at-bats wouldn’t be a disaster, but he’s probably the weakest hitter in an otherwise loaded Houston lineup.

With the Astros firmly in a win-now mindset as they battle the defending champion Rangers in the AL West, it’s sensible to look for alternatives. There aren’t a ton of available options in free agency. While Cody Bellinger fits the description of an athletic, lefty-swinging outfielder, it’d be shocking to see Houston meet his asking price — particularly after signing Hader.

Travis Jankowski is a fourth/fifth outfield type who should be available on a cheap one-year deal. He doesn’t hit for any power, but he’s an excellent runner who gets on base and can play all three outfield spots. While Eddie Rosario remains unsigned, he’s essentially limited to left field at this point. That’s not a great fit unless the Astros are willing to play McCormick in center regularly.

On the trade front, Max Kepler and MJ Melendez have been loosely floated in rumors this winter. Players like Akil Baddoo and switch-hitting Dylan Carlson could theoretically be available. None of that group seems all that likely to change teams at this stage of the offseason, but they’re among various players about whose availability Houston could inquire.

How much spending room is at the front office’s disposal is difficult to gauge. Houston’s surprising strike for Hader pushed the franchise into uncharted waters. Roster Resource projects their Opening Day payroll around $239MM, their first time north of $200MM in season-opening spending. Houston will exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2020. They’re at nearly $255MM in CBT commitments, well clear of the $237MM threshold and on the verge of the $257MM second penalization marker. Owner Jim Crane demonstrated a willingness to stretch the budget to build an elite back of the bullpen, perhaps in response to losing Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgery. It’s not clear how much farther he’ll go for what could be seen as a luxury addition in the outfield.

The Opener: Hall Of Fame, Paxton, MLBTR Chat

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With Spring Training just weeks away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Who will get the call from the Hall?

The results of this year’s round of Hall of Fame voting will be announced at 5pm CT this evening, determining who will join former Pirates, Marlins, Rockies, and Tigers manager Jim Leyland in being inducted into Cooperstown on July 13. Third baseman Adrian Beltre appears to be all but guaranteed to join Leyland in this year’s class. As shown by the Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker maintained by Ryan Thibodaux, Beltre has received votes on a whopping 99% of publicly-known ballots at the moment. With 53.4% of ballots known, Beltre would need votes from less than 60% of the remaining ballots to secure his spot in Cooperstown. In addition to Beltre, Twins catcher Joe Mauer and Rockies first baseman Todd Helton both appear to have a strong chance of getting the call this evening with votes on 82.9% and 82% of known ballots, respectively.

Southpaw closer Billy Wagner (77.6%) and slugging outfielder Gary Sheffield (75.1%) are both also on paths to clear the 75% threshold and land a plaque in Cooperstown, though the odds either player makes it in are still up in the air at this point. This year’s results are particularly key for Sheffield, as this is his tenth and final appearance on the ballot. By contrast, Wagner is in his ninth year of eligibility while Helton is in his 6th. Mauer and Beltre just joined the ballot this year. On the other end of the spectrum, left-handed starter Mark Buehrle, third baseman David Wright, right-handed closer Francisco Rodriguez, and outfielder Torii Hunter all have been selected on between 4% and 8% of public ballots. Players need at least 5% of the total vote to remain on the ballot for the following year.

2. Paxton headed out West?

The Dodgers appear to be nearing a deal to add a third starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, as reports have indicated the club is close to a one-year deal with veteran southpaw James Paxton. If the deal is completed, Paxton would join fellow offseason acquisitions Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow as well as internal arms Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in the club’s likely starting five. The Dodgers have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move will be necessary to bring in Paxton if the deal is completed. Big Maple’s likely departure from the free agent market takes another mid-rotation arm off the board, leaving Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen and Hyun-Jin Ryu among the best remaining options.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

With just three weeks left until Spring Training, there’s plenty of boxes still unchecked on the offseason shopping lists of clubs all around the league. Are you wondering what’s next for your favorite team, or perhaps curious about what the market for a particular free agent looks like? If so, tune in this afternoon when MLBTR’s Steve Adams hosts a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after its completed.

Pirates To Sign Aroldis Chapman

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The Pirates are in agreement with Aroldis Chapman, as first reported by Francys Romero (X link). It’s a one-year, $10.5MM guarantee, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on X). Chapman is a Wasserman client. The deal is pending a physical; Pittsburgh will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move once the contract is finalized.

Chapman, who turns 36 next month, lands a one-year free agent deal for the second straight offseason. Limited to a fairly modest $3.75MM guarantee from the Royals a year ago, he lands a raise on the heels of an impressive season that culminated in his second World Series win. Chapman turned in a 3.09 ERA over 58 1/3 innings, striking out a laughable 41.4% of opposing hitters. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only Orioles star closer Félix Bautista punched hitters out more frequently.

The lefty split his year between two teams. He turned in dominant results for three months in Kansas City. Over 29 2/3 frames with the Royals, he pitched to a 2.45 ERA with a 43.4% strikeout rate. That production and his affordable salary made Chapman arguably the top rental reliever on the trade market. K.C. moved early, sending him to the Rangers in a one-for-one deal for former first-round pick Cole Ragans at the end of June.

It’s the kind of result that rebuilding teams envision when signing a veteran to a one-year deal. Ragans had an excellent 12-start run to close the year and looks like a potential mid-rotation or better pitcher whom Kansas City controls for five more seasons. Texas knew they were getting a short-term acquisition, but Chapman provided them a much needed high-leverage bullpen arm.

Over 29 regular season innings in Arlington, he posted a 3.72 ERA while fanning nearly 40% of batters faced. Chapman saved four games and picked up six holds in front of nominal closer José Leclerc. He continued to pitch in meaningful games during the Rangers’ run to the first title in franchise history. He picked up six more holds in nine playoff appearances, totaling eight innings of two-run ball. That came with only six strikeouts and five walks, but Chapman wiggled out of trouble more often than not in October.

It was frequently an adventure when Chapman took the mound. While he has never had great command, his control has reached particularly worrisome levels over the last three years. He walked 14.5% of batters faced last year, the fifth-highest rate among pitchers to log at least 50 innings. That was nevertheless the southpaw’s lowest walk percentage since 2020.

While Chapman is going to hand out his share of free baserunners, he remains one of the sport’s toughest pitchers to hit when he’s around the strike zone. His four-seam fastball averaged 99 MPH last year, while his sinker sat above 101 MPH. That’s above the 97.5 MPH he averaged on the four-seam during his final season with the Yankees. His slider, which had averaged between 85-86 MPH for the previous few years, jumped to 88.1 MPH. That high-octane arsenal translated to plenty of whiffs. Only Robert Stephenson and Bautista had a lower opponents’ contact rate. Hitters put the bat on the ball on only three-fifths of their swings against Chapman.

The Bucs will live with the free passes to add that kind of swing-and-miss potential to the back of their bullpen. David Bednar is entrenched in the ninth inning. Chapman will work in a setup capacity with the ability to step into the ninth should Bednar suffer an injury. He joins Ryan Borucki as left-handed bullpen options for skipper Derek Shelton. Colin Holderman projects as Pittsburgh’s top righty setup arm.

MLBTR predicted Chapman to receive a two-year, $24MM pact. He’ll instead settle for one season. The $10.5MM salary makes him the highest-paid player on the Pittsburgh roster this year (after accounting for cash considerations from the Mariners and Braves paying down Marco Gonzales’ $12MM deal). He’s the fourth player to ink a one-year free agent deal with the Pirates this winter, joining Martín Pérez, Andrew McCutchen and Rowdy Tellez.

The deal brings Pittsburgh’s projected player payroll around $79MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The low-payroll club opened last season with roughly $73MM in commitments, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re now set to raise spending this year, as GM Ben Cherington suggested at the beginning of the offseason, although it remains to be seen if the front office has any more room at its disposal. Pittsburgh could still seek rotation help and potentially a veteran option at second base, where they have a handful of young players (e.g. Liover Peguero, Nick Gonzales, Ji Hwan Bae) set to compete for at-bats.

Owner Bob Nutting suggested over the weekend he anticipated the team staying in the playoff mix for the entire season. Pittsburgh hasn’t reached the postseason since 2015 and hasn’t advanced to the Division Series in a decade. If that doesn’t materialize, Chapman could find himself on the rental trade market for a second straight summer.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Collin McHugh Announces Retirement

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Veteran right-hander Collin McHugh announced his retirement from the game Monday (Instagram link). The 36-year-old pitched in parts of 11 MLB seasons from 2012-23 and accrued more than nine years of big league service along the way.

“I was never the best player on any team I played for,” McHugh wrote in his announcement. “Including my 7th grade church league team, on which I played catcher. I never did travel baseball. I went to a small private high school and a small NAIA college. I got drafted in the 18th round by the Mets, most likely as a favor to my college coach. I threw 90 mph. I was NEVER supposed to make it out of A ball. 16 years later, it’s finally time for me to hang ‘em up. And as cringey as it might sound, I’m proud of myself. Proud that I didn’t give up. Proud of the clubhouses I’ve been lucky enough to have a locker in. Proud to be a member of the MLBPA alongside this generation of amazing ballplayers. To the Mets, Rockies, Astros, Red Sox, Rays, and my hometown Braves: Thanks for taking a chance on a kid like me. I’ll never forget it. And don’t worry, I’m pretty sure I’ll be around the game forever. So if we see each other at a park near you, come say hey!”

McHugh, indeed, was never regarded as a top prospect. He debuted with the 2012 Mets and was tagged for a 7.59 ERA in 21 1/3 frames as a rookie. His struggles in Queens continued into the following season, and McHugh was traded to the Rockies in exchange for outfielder Eric Young Jr., who’d been designated for assignment in Colorado. Things didn’t pan out at Coors Field either; McHugh was torched for 21 runs in 19 innings as a Rockie.

Despite the lack of success, the Astros both tried to trade for McHugh prior to his Rockies acquisition and then later claimed him off waivers when Colorado removed him from its 40-man roster. That interest and subsequent acquisition came back in 2013, prior to the public advent of a great deal of pitching data that is now commonplace. At the time, the high spin rate on McHugh’s curveball gave the Astros confidence that with some tweaks to his repertoire and general approach to hitters on the mound, that could be a plus breaking pitch that fueled a breakout for the little-known righty.

Houston’s interest proved prescient. In 2014, McHugh stepped into the Astros’ rotation and made 25 starts while working to an excellent 2.74 ERA over 154 2/3 frames. He fanned just over a quarter of his opponents against a tidy 6.6% walk rate while keeping the ball on the ground at a roughly average clip. A year later, McHugh followed up with a career-high 203 2/3 innings, pitching to a 3.89 ERA in a full slate of 32 trips to the hill.

McHugh finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting during that 2014 breakout and was eighth in Cy Young voting during his followup effort. He made another 33 starts for Houston during the 2016 season before sustaining a shoulder injury that limited him to 12 starts of 3.55 ERA ball in 2017. McHugh returned as a reliever in 2018 and went from a key member of the Houston rotation to a similarly important reliever; he fired 72 1/3 innings of 1.99 ERA ball in 2018 before struggling to more pedestrian results in a 2019 campaign split between the rotation and bullpen.

Overall, McHugh went from a nondescript late-round pick to a clear-cut big leaguer during his time in Houston. He pitched 753 1/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball there before hitting free agency and taking a one-year deal with the Red Sox that was wiped out by injury and the pandemic-shortened schedule. McHugh landed with the Rays in 2021 and bounced back in a major way: a 1.55 ERA in 64 innings. That prompted a two-year deal with the Braves — a homecoming for a pitcher who went to high school in Lilburn and college in Mount Berry — where McHugh went on to throw another 128 innings of 3.38 ERA ball.

All told, McHugh’s career will draw to a close with a 71-47 record, 46 holds, one save and a 3.72 ERA in 992 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He struck out 967 hitters against 280 walks and added another 27 innings of 4.00 ERA performance in the postseason. McHugh won a World Series ring with the controversial 2017 Astros club that is now infamous for its sign-stealing setup. FanGraphs valued McHugh’s career at nearly 16 wins above replacement, while Baseball-Reference pegged him at 12.4 WAR in a career that netted him just under $27MM in earnings. Few 18th-round signees can boast anything close to that type of success; McHugh and Mike Cameron stand as two of the best ever selected in that round. McHugh’s comment about being “around the game forever” seems to leave the door open for some kind of role with a team in the future. Best wishes to the righty on whatever the next step may be.

D-Backs Sign Dylan File, Dakota Chalmers To Minor League Deals

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The Diamondbacks have signed right-handers Dylan File and Dakota Chalmers to minor league contracts, according to their Triple-A team in Reno. Chalmers will get an invite to big league Spring Training.

File returns to affiliated ball after a brief stint in Korea. A 21st-round draftee by the Brewers in 2017, he secured a spot on the 40-man roster three years later. Elbow surgery limited him during the 2021 campaign and Milwaukee outrighted from the roster the following May without ever calling him to the majors.

The 27-year-old signed with the KBO’s Doosan Bears last winter but only made two starts. His season debut was delayed when he was hit with a comebacker in preseason play. Not long after making his return, he was diagnosed with elbow soreness (link via Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News). The Bears released him in June to sign left-hander Brandon Waddell.

Chalmers, also 27, was a third-round pick by the A’s in 2015. Oakland traded him to the Twins for Fernando Rodney three years later. Like File, he was added to a 40-man roster (Minnesota’s in 2019) to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft but never got to the big leagues. The Cubs nabbed Chalmers off waivers during the 2021 campaign but ran him through outright waivers shortly thereafter. The 6’3″ righty has a 4.83 ERA while striking out just over a quarter of opponents across parts of seven seasons in the minors.

Alex Blandino Attempting To Become Knuckleballer

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Infielder Alex Blandino signed a minor league deal with the Reds back in November but he will reportedly be attempting a move to the mound. Per Fernando Rayo of 8 Deportivo out of Nicaragua, the CAA client will be trying to become a knuckleballer (Links to Spanish-language X posts) and will report to Double-A. MLBTR has confirmed the report with the note that Blandino does not have an invite to major league camp at this time.

Blandino, 31, has 135 games of major league experience, which all came with the Reds over the 2018-2021 period. He played all four infield positions and the outfield corners, having hit .226/.339/.291 in 279 plate appearances. He played in the minors in 2022 with the Giants and Mariners but didn’t crack the majors. He played for Nicaragua during the 2023 World Baseball Classic in the spring but then didn’t sign elsewhere until the minor league deal with the Reds in November.

The move to the mound doesn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he has made five major league appearances as a pitcher. Those appearances even included a knuckleball, as highlighted here by this post on X by Pitching Ninja from 2018. In a 2021 appearance, Bladino’s fastball hit 90 mph, as relayed by Cut4 on X.

Those are a couple of intriguing elements that could perhaps give Blandino a better path back to the majors than as a light-hitting utility infielder. Knuckleballers are a unique breed and don’t always need strong velocity to succeed, but Blandino’s ability to hit 90 mph doesn’t hurt. But on the other hand, it’s unclear if he could maintain that kind of velocity while pitching on a regular basis over a full season.

For the Reds, there’s no harm in letting Blandino take a shot and see what happens. For fans of the knuckleball, it will be an exciting development to watch, especially with the pitch having largely disappeared from the majors since R.A. Dickey’s retirement.

Orioles Acquire Tyler Nevin

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The Orioles announced they’ve reacquired infielder Tyler Nevin in a trade with the Tigers. Baltimore sends cash to Detroit, who had designated the right-handed hitter for assignment last week. The O’s now have 39 players on the 40-man roster.

Nevin heads back to Baltimore after a year away. During the 2022-23 offseason, the Orioles had designated Nevin for assignment and traded him to the Tigers for cash. The 26-year-old spent the year on the Detroit 40-man roster but worked mostly in Triple-A. He posted excellent numbers in the minors, where he raked at a .326/.400/.543 clip with 15 homers through 385 plate appearances.

That brings Nevin to a .276/.355/.464 slash in more than 1000 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He hasn’t found the same success in scattered looks against MLB pitching. He’s a .203/.310/.301 hitter in 105 big league contests over the past three seasons. Nevin played in 64 games with the Orioles from 2021-22 and got into 41 games as a Tiger.

The O’s are clearly familiar with the former Rockies draftee. With a pair of openings on the 40-man, they’ll bring him back for a minimal cost. Nevin is out of minor league options, so he’d have to break camp with the MLB team if the O’s don’t want to again DFA him. That could be a tough task on a team with plenty of infield depth, but there’s little harm for Baltimore in giving him a look in Spring Training.

Cardinals, Tommy Edman Avoid Arbitration With Two-Year Deal

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7:40pm: Edman is guaranteed $16.5MM, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link).

3:30pm: The Cardinals and utility player Tommy Edman have avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal, per a club announcement. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the agreement prior to the club making it official. The financials of the deal have not yet been publicly reported. Edman was one of 22 players who didn’t agree to a salary before the filing deadline, though he’s now the third of that group to subsequently ink a new pact, joining Cionel Pérez of the Orioles and Casey Mize of the Tigers.

Edman, 29 in May, first qualified for arbitration a year ago and made $4.2MM in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $6.5MM this year. As mentioned, he and the club didn’t agree on a new salary by the filing deadline, with Edman filing at $6.95MM and the club at $6.5MM. They would have been slated for a hearing in the weeks to come but have instead agreed to a deal that will cover his 2024 and 2025 seasons, buying out his final two arb years. Edman will be slated for free agency after this deal runs its course.

Like many clubs, the Cards are a “file-and-trial” team, meaning they choose not to continue negotiations on one-year deals after the filing deadline even though such talks are allowed. Last week, Edman said he hadn’t yet heard anything about a multi-year deal but expected talks to occur before the hearing. It appears those talks did end up taking place and were fruitful enough to avoid a hearing, as well preventing Edman from having to worry about arbitration at all next winter.

Over his career, Edman has moved all over the diamond, having played all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, receiving strong grades for his glovework wherever he goes. He has hit .265/.319/.408 in his career, leading to a 99 wRC+, which indicates he’s been a hair below league average. He has stolen 106 bases in 123 tries. FanGraphs considers him to have provided 15.3 wins above replacement in 596 career games.

In 2024, it’s expected that he will be the center fielder on a regular basis, with Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker likely to be flanking him most of the time. However, Edman also spent significant time at shortstop last year. The club is hoping Masyn Winn will take over the shortstop job going forward, but he’s not yet 22 years old and hit .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. It’s also possible an injury will create the need for Edman to move somewhere else, with Nootbaar or Dylan Carlson perhaps taking over in center.

Edman underwent arthroscopic wrist surgery in October and it still rehabbing from that procedure. As of last week, he hadn’t yet been cleared to make contact when swinging a bat but was “very confident” that he would be ready for the start of the season.

Boras Clients Who Signed After January In Previous Offseasons

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in three weeks but there is still a lot of offseason business to be completed. 19 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents still don’t have agreements in place for 2024, along with many players who weren’t on that list.

Of those 19, six of them are represented by the Boras Corporation. That includes the four top remaining names in Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman, as well as J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins. Boras also represents notable guys that missed the Top 50, such as Joey Gallo, James Paxton, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

While most players and agents would prefer to get their offseason business done early, Boras has shown an unusual willingness to wait for the right deal, even if that means it doesn’t come together until very late. Using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, we can look at all the free agent deals signed by Boras clients going back to October of 2010. Focusing on the ones signed after January ended, we can see if a picture emerges.

Quick sidenote, the cutoff date of the start of February is a simple one but also slightly arbitrary, as Boras has signed some notable deals towards the end of January. Prince Fielder got $214MM in late January 2012, Max Scherzer got $210MM from the Nationals in 2015 and Chris Davis got $161MM from the Orioles in 2016, though those latter two both had significant deferrals. But without further ado, let’s look at the track record of deals that follow the first month of the year.

March of 2023

  • Jurickson Profar signs with the Rockies for one year and $7.8MM. MLBTR had predicted Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2023

  • Elvis Andrus signs with the White Sox for one year and $3MM. He received an honorable mention on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2022

  • The 2021-2022 offseason featured a large number of late signings due to the lockout. With transactions frozen from the start of December until mid-March, Boras had to quickly work out deals for Carlos Rodón, Yusei Kikuchi, Ian Kennedy, Nick Castellanos, Kris Bryant, Matthew Boyd, Carlos Correa and Zach Davies after the lockout ended. But that was at least partially due to the unusual circumstances and not necessarily about a waiting game played by Boras, so it’s probably not useful to look at those deals for this exercise.

March of 2021

February of 2021

  • James Paxton signs with the Mariners for one year and $8.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Paxton for a one-year, $10MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Trevor Rosenthal signs with the Athletics for one year and $11MM.  MLBTR had predicted Rosenthal for a two-year, $14MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jake Arrieta signs with the Cubs for one year and $6MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Aaron Sanchez signs with the Giants for one year and $4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

February of 2020

  • Taijuan Walker signs with the Mariners for one year and $2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

June of 2019

  • Dallas Keuchel signs with the Braves for one year and $13MM. MLBTR had predicted Keuchel for a four-year, $82MM deal at the start of the offseason. He had rejected a $17.9MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.

March of 2019

  • Bryce Harper signs with the Phillies for 13 years and $330MM. MLBTR had predicted Harper for a 14-year, $420MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2019

  • Marwin González signs with the Twins for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a four-year, $36MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Mike Moustakas signs with the Brewers for one year and $10MM.  MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Brad Boxberger signs with the Royals for one year and $2.2MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Jeremy Hellickson signs with the Nationals for one year and $1.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2018

  • Greg Holland signs with the Cardinals for one year and $14MM. MLBTR had predicted Holland for a four-year, $50MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jake Arrieta signs with the Phillies for three years and $75MM. MLBTR had predicted Arrieta for a four-year, $100MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Mike Moustakas signs with the Royals for one year and $6.5MM. MLBTR had predicted Moustakas for a five-year, $85MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Carlos González signs with the Rockies for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Gonzalez for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2018

  • J.D. Martinez signs with the Red Sox for five years and $110MM. MLBTR had predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Carlos Gómez signs with the Rays for one year and $4MM. MLBTR had predicted Gomez for a two-year, $22MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Eric Hosmer signs with the Padres for eight years and $144MM. MLBTR had predicted Hosmer for a six-year, $132MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Tony Watson signs with the Giants for three years and $9MM. MLBTR had predicted Watson for a two-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2017

  • Matt Wieters signs with the Nationals for two years and $21MM. MLBTR had predicted Wieters for a three-year, $39MM deal at the start of the offseason.
  • Jered Weaver signs with the Padres for one year and $3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2016

  • Pedro Álvarez signs with the Orioles for one year and $5.8MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Austin Jackson signs with the White Sox for one year and $5MM. MLBTR had predicted Jackson for a one-year, $12MM deal at the start of the offseason.

February of 2015

  • Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for two years and $13MM. Rodriguez was ranked 36th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.
  • Everth Cabrera signs with the Orioles for one year and $2.4MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

June of 2014

  • Kendrys Morales signs with the Twins for one year and $12MM. Morales was ranked 28th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but waited until after the draft when that no longer applied.

May of 2014

  • Stephen Drew signs with the Red Sox for one year and $10.1MM. Drew was ranked 14th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions. He had rejected a $14.1MM qualifying offer and was tied to draft pick forfeiture, but re-signed with his previous club.

March of 2014

  • Óliver Pérez signs with the Diamondbacks for two years and $4.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

February of 2014

  • Francisco Rodríguez signs with the Brewers for one year and $3.3MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.
  • Jeff Baker signs with the Marlins for two years and $3.7MM. He wasn’t listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason.

March of 2013

  • Kyle Lohse signs with the Brewers for three years and $33MM. Lohse was ranked 10th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2013

  • Michael Bourn signs with the Guardians for four years and $48MM. Bourn was ranked 3rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2012

  • Edwin Jackson signs with the Nationals for one year and $11MM. Jackson was ranked 6th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

February of 2011

  • Johnny Damon signs with the Rays for one year and $5.3MM. Damon was ranked 47th on MLBTR’s Top 50 that offseason, before that post featured specific contract predictions.

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A few caveats need to apply here for context. Many of these older deals were impacted by the previous qualifying offer system, wherein a signing club would have to forfeit a first-round draft pick and a player could receive multiple QOs in his career. This was changed going into the 2017 season, with players capped at one QO in their career and the draft pick forfeiture moved back, depending on a club’s revenue-sharing or competitive balance tax payor status. Since that time, the QO seems to have had less of an impact on free agents.

Even with those caveats in mind, the data doesn’t paint a rosy picture of playing the waiting game, at least relative to the expectations from the start of the offseason. Most guys on this list settled for a lesser contract than was predicted, either in terms of guarantee or AAV or both. Guys like Harper and Hosmer still got really strong contracts, but Harper’s was clearly below projections while Hosmer’s deal stretched the years to get a larger guarantee but less AAV. The results for guys like Keuchel, Holland and Moustakas (twice) came in well below expectations.

Perhaps the early-offseason offers were even lower for some of these guys and waiting it out was the smart play. It’s hard to know for sure without having details of those discussions, which don’t often come to light. But there aren’t many instances of a player waiting until close to the spring and then finding a really amazing deal. That’s likely due to the fact that many clubs have already spent most or all of their budget for the upcoming season by this part of the calendar, or at least they can posture as though that is the case for the purposes of leverage.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen in the weeks to come, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor for Boras clients as well as any other player. As mentioned, the top four remaining free agents are all Boras guys, but there are plenty of non-Boras guys still available as well. The 13 guys from the Top 50 that aren’t represented by the Boras Corporation are Jorge Soler, Mike Clevinger, Aroldis Chapman, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Justin Turner, Brandon Belt, Héctor Neris, Jakob Junis, Liam Hendriks and Tim Anderson.

Latest On Marlins’ Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo

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As with the past several offseasons, there’s been plenty of speculation and reporting about the Marlins’ willingness to deal from their starting rotation. Chatter surrounding the possibility of Miami dealing a starter didn’t bring about a high-profile trade two winters ago — Miami did deal Zach Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal — but last offseason saw the Fish ship righty Pablo Lopez to Minnesota alongside prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio in a deal that brought Luis Arraez to Miami. Talk this offseason has centered primarily around lefty Jesus Luzardo and righty Edward Cabrera, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that a trade involving Luzardo is “less likely” than a trade of the younger Cabrera. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote late last week that the Marlins have been open to discussing both in trades.

While Cabrera has more club control remaining — five years, compared to Luzardo’s three — he’s also the less-established arm of the two, so it makes sense that the Marlins would be a bit more reluctant to part with the more experienced Luzardo.

Cabrera, who’ll turn 26 in April, has already spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues. After getting roughed up as a rookie, the former top prospect has made strides in the past two seasons, logging a combined 3.73 ERA with a sharp 26.6% strikeout rate. He throws hard (96.2 mph average fastball), has generally been good at keeping the ball in the yard (1.10 HR/9) and boasts a strong 50.6% ground-ball rate. However, Cabrera has also walked far too many opponents, issuing free passes to 13.7% of batters faced.

That lack of command has at times prevented him from working deep into games. While some of his short starts have been attributable to the Marlins monitoring his workload as he’s worked through a shoulder impingement and elbow inflammation, Cabrera’s average of 4 2/3 innings per start to this point in his career is quite brief, even by today’s standards. Cabrera worked a career-high eight shutout innings against the A’s in August of 2022, but that was one of just two career outings where he’s recorded an out beyond the sixth inning (the other was in his MLB debut a year prior).

Clearly, there are still some final steps to take in Cabrera’s development, but his body of work over the past two years offers plenty of reason for optimism. Couple that with club control that stretches through the 2028 season — he’ll likely be arbitration-eligible four times as a Super Two player — and Cabrera should appeal to plenty of pitching-hungry clubs, even if he’s the less-established of Miami’s two “available” starters.

As for the Marlins’ goals in a trade, they’ll surely vary from prospective trade partner to prospective trade partner. The Fish entered the offseason looking for long-term help behind the plate and at shortstop. Rosenthal suggests that a viable long-term option at short, in particular, might pique the Marlins’ interest when it comes to moving a controllable pitcher. As things stand, utilityman Jon Berti, glove-first prospect Jacob Amaya and former top prospects Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards are among the organization’s options there.

That said, Miami also hasn’t done much to upgrade its long-term catching outlook this winter. Christian Bethancourt was acquired in a small trade with Cleveland, who’d acquired him from the Rays. He and Nick Fortes are the only catchers on Miami’s 40-man roster. None of the organization’s current top 10 prospects at Baseball America are catchers.

There’s no indication yet that a trade of Cabrera, Luzardo or any other Marlins starter should be considered especially likely. But the Marlins have sat out free agency entirely this offseason, and the market hasn’t exactly been deep in options at their foremost positions of need anyhow. They likely view the trade market as their best path to addressing those needs in the short- and long-term, as in addition to the thin free-agent market, the team’s projected $97MM payroll (via Roster Resource) is already about $5MM greater than last year’s Opening Day mark.

The Fish are still about $13MM shy of where they ended the 2023 season, but it’s fair to wonder just how much appetite ownership has for additional spending. Rosenthal writes, for instance, that Josh Bell’s $16.5MM salary (which the club acquired in order to dump the majority of Jean Segura’s contract on the Guardians) is one of the reasons that the Marlins have been reluctant to spend this winter. If that’s the case, it’s hard to envision owner Bruce Sherman greenlighting additional free-agent spending of note, which either sets the stage for some trade activity or a disappointing offseason on the player acquisition front (possibly both).

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