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Oldest, Youngest Players On MLB Rosters

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Two of Major League Baseball’s most popular elder statesmen, Ichiro Suzuki and Bartolo Colon, may have played their last big league game. Suzuki certainly has, having announced his retirement following an emotional sendoff with the Mariners in the season-opening series against the Athletics in Tokyo. Colon has said he hopes to continue his career but has seemingly not received an offer, as he remains unsigned.

Baseball’s youth movement will continue to push down the average age of a big leaguer, but there are still several graybeards throughout the game, led by baseball’s all-time leader in imaginary arrows fired: Fernando Rodney. Rodney was the only player in all of baseball who opened the season on a big league roster at 40 or older. Here’s a look at the game’s oldest players as the league-wide Opening Day (* = on the Major League injured or restricted list):

Fernando Rodney | Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

  1. Fernando Rodney, RHP, Athletics (born 3/18/77)
  2. Albert Pujols, DH/1B, Angels (1/16/80)
  3. Rich Hill, LHP, Dodgers (3/11/80)*
  4. Erik Kratz, C, Giants (6/15/80)
  5. Nelson Cruz, DH/OF, Twins (7/1/80)
  6. CC Sabathia, LHP, Yankees (7/21/80)*
  7. Pat Neshek, RHP, Phillies (9/4/80)
  8. Curtis Granderson, OF, Marlins (3/16/81)
  9. Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Cubs (5/26/81)
  10. Oliver Perez, LHP, Indians (8/15/81)

Rodney is leading the charge and still brings a mid-90s heater to the table. The A’s were comfortable exercising an option that guarantees him $5.25MM this season, so if he can turn in another season of solid, albeit characteristically anxiety-inducing relief work, this may not be his final Opening Day. Sabathia is the only lock on this list to retire after the 2019 season. Several of the entrants, in fact, are controlled beyond the 2019 season. Pujols remains under contract through 2021. Cruz, Neshek and Perez each have options for the 2020 season. Kratz will be 39 on June 15 but will still be arbitration-eligible next offseason.

Hill is still a quality starter on the heels of his late-career breakout, and if he can turn in a reasonably healthy year, he should have interest in free agency (assuming he wants to continue pitching). The Grandy Man is among the game’s most revered clubhouse presences and was a solid bat against righties in 2018. Zobrist had a strong showing in his age-37 campaign last year.

On the flip-side of the coin is Toronto’s Rule 5 pick, righty Elvis Luciano. The 19-year-old hadn’t yet seen his second birthday when Pujols and Sabathia began their MLB careers. He’s a bit of an odd man out on a list that is otherwise comprised of elite prospects (or formerly elite prospects who’ve already become stars), but he holds the distinction of starting the season as the game’s most babyfaced talent. Here are baseball’s youngest players as of yesterday…

Elvis Luciano | Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

  1. Elvis Luciano, RHP, Blue Jays (born 2/15/00)
  2. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, Padres (1/2/99)
  3. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals (10/25/98)
  4. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves (12/20/97)
  5. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Braves (12/18/97)
  6. Victor Robles, OF, Nationals (5/19/97)
  7. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves (1/7/97)
  8. Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, Yankees (12/13/96)
  9. Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox (11/27/96)
  10. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox (10/24/96)

Despite their youth, more than half of those 10 players have already completed a full big league season. As one would expect with a group this young but with some notable MLB experience, three of the 10 played significant roles in 2018 Rookie of the Year voting; Acuna took home NL honors in that category ahead of runner-up Soto. Torres finished third in American League voting.

The Braves’ three entrants on this list are a testament to the waves of young talent emerging in Atlanta that should help the organization stay competitive for years to come. The Nationals, likewise, will hope that Soto and Robles comprise two-thirds of their outfield for more than half a decade. San Diego made the bold decision to call Tatis Jr. up to the Majors from Opening Day at a time when teams are famously making a habit of holding potential stars in the Majors for a few weeks to buy an extra year of service (as Atlanta did with Acuna a year ago). The White Sox looked primed to take that approach with Jimenez before ultimately signing him to a record-setting extension and bringing him to the Majors for Opening Day.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

An 89-win season in 2018 wasn’t enough to satisfy Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto, who took the franchise on an aggressive re-imagining campaign over the winter. Dipoto’s plan is likely to lead to a short-term step back for the Mariners, already the owners of North American sports’ longest playoff drought (18 years), but his hope is that it’ll pave the way for perennial contention over the long haul.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Seattle Mariners Depth Chart | Seattle Mariners Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

It was December 2013, fresh off four straight awful seasons, that Seattle made one of the biggest splashes in the history of free agency by signing ex-Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240MM contract. At the time, then-GM Jack Zduriencik & Co. no doubt envisioned a Cano-led roster competing for World Series. Instead, with the Mariners continuing to disappoint during the first two years of the Cano era, Zduriencik lost his job in August 2015. His ouster led to the hiring of Dipoto, who, almost four years after taking the reins, cut the cord on Cano.

Aside from an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs last season, Cano largely lived up to his lofty pact in Seattle. It was the rest of the team that fell short, though, and Dipoto was apparently convinced it would have been more of the same in 2019 had he stayed the course. So, with a half-decade and $120MM still left on Cano’s contract, Dipoto set out this past offseason to clear the 36-year-old off the team’s books before age could truly takes its toll on the eight-time All-Star.

In early December, just over a month after the offseason began across the majors, Dipoto found a taker – the Mets – in a whopper of a trade. When the dust settled, seven players had moved between the two teams, and Seattle had saved $64MM. In the process, the Mariners hauled in three promising prospects – outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-handers Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista – for a farm system that has gone from pitiful to presentable in recent months. Additionally, they picked up a pair of veteran stopgaps in outfielder/first baseman Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak to help offset money in the swap. Of course, the deal also saw Seattle wave goodbye to closer Edwin Diaz, one of the premier relievers in baseball. That’s going to hurt, especially considering the flamethrowing Diaz still has four years of control remaining, but the Mariners deemed it acceptable to lose him because it meant getting rid of a large portion of Cano’s money.

True to form, the aggressive, trade-happy Dipoto made several other noteworthy deals in the offseason. One sent No. 1 starter James Paxton and his two years of control to the Yankees for a trio of prospects, including lefty Justus Sheffield, who may be the Mariners’ top farmhand and figures to contribute as early as this season. In another, Dipoto packaged shortstop Jean Segura – who was the source of some clubhouse friction last season, and who had a guaranteed $58MM remaining on his pact – as well as relievers Juan Nicasio ($9MM) and James Pazos to the Phillies for infielder J.P. Crawford and first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana’s the more proven major leaguer of the two, the real prize for Seattle was the 24-year-old Crawford, a former high-end prospect who the team hopes will emerge as Segura’s long-term successor.

Santana wasn’t long for the Mariners, who quickly dealt him to Cleveland in a three-team trade that also included Tampa Bay. The Mariners acquired first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion in the deal, and though he has been one of the majors’ fiercest sluggers in recent years, it was more about saving a few million dollars and netting a competitive balance pick from the Tribe. That wasn’t the only trade the Mariners pulled off that included the Rays, whom Dipoto has consistently bartered with in his time with the M’s. The first trade he made of the offseason was a five-player deal which saw catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia go to the Rays for center fielder Mallex Smith. Zunino was a competent regular for the Mariners, but he never blossomed into the star they wanted when they selected him third overall in the 2012 draft. Moreover, he has just two years of control left versus four for Smith, a breakout player in 2018 who could be the Mariners’ first mainstay in center since Mike Cameron’s tenure.

In other trades that’ll have an immediate effect on the major league product, the Mariners nabbed Zunino’s replacement, Omar Narvaez, from the White Sox and got outfielder Domingo Santana from the Brewers. All they had to surrender for Narvaez was reliever Alex Colome. Just about any bullpen would be happy to have Colome, but he’s 30 years old, somewhat pricey ($7.325MM) and two seasons from free agency. He clearly wasn’t a must-have piece for the Mariners in their present state. Narvaez, on the other hand, has been a strong offensive catcher since debuting in 2016 and is under wraps through 2022. While Narvaez is nowhere near the defender Zunino is, it still looks like a worthwhile behind-the-plate switch for the Mariners.

Likewise, the Mariners were within reason to exchange Gamel for Santana in what came off as a floor-for-ceiling trade. Gamel was satisfactory from 2017-18, but he doesn’t carry the potential of Santana, who was a 30-home run, 3.3-fWAR player in 2017 before taking sizable steps backward last year. But Santana got lost in a crowded Milwaukee outfield in 2018, and he’ll have a chance to regain his footing in a regular role for the Mariners, who have his rights through 2021.

Understandably, trades tend to occupy the lion’s share of talk when it comes to Dipoto. However, he also did quite a bit of work in free agency this past offseason. His most important transaction was reeling in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who could emerge as the franchise’s latest Japanese-born cornerstone. The Mariners had to beat out a slew of teams for Kikuchi, a 27-year-old who fared pretty well in his first meaningful outing in the majors – a win over the Athletics last week in his homeland – and has the potential to serve as a solid starter in Seattle for a while.

Dipoto also landed Diaz’s immediate successor, Hunter Strickland, via the open market. The former Giant, 30, largely held his own with them, though he did struggle in 2018. Still, for just a $1.3MM guarantee, you can’t fault the Mariners for taking a shot on Strickland. The same logic applies to infielder Tim Beckham, their shortstop until the optioned Crawford shows up in the majors. Although Beckham was terrible as a member of the Orioles in 2018, he’s a former No. 1 overall pick (the Rays took him in 2008) who was a 3.4-fWAR player in 2017. Again, for just over $1MM, he’s worth a try. If nothing else, he’ll provide the Mariners a Band-Aid at short as they give Crawford further seasoning/manipulate his service time in the minors.

Questions Remaining

As you’d expect, there are more questions than answers with this roster. For one, who’s the next veteran Dipoto will trade? If he has his way, it may be Encarnacion, though the Mariners haven’t been able to find a match for the declining, expensive 36-year-old thus far. Bruce, Swarzak, second baseman Dee Gordon and righty Mike Leake also come to the fore as in-season trade candidates, but nobody from that group carries much value at the moment.

In terms of players who are sure bets to actually help the Mariners win games this year, only excellent right fielder Mitch Haniger truly sticks out. They don’t know what they’ll get from Smith, who wasn’t much of a hitter from 2016-17, or Santana or Beckham; Bruce was abysmal last year, and he’s likely just an average-at-best player nowadays; Encarnacion will have a hard time replacing the departed Nelson Cruz; Narvaez’s troubles behind the dish limit his upside, and it’s surprising the Mariners didn’t find a more credible backup to him than David Freitas (a proven defensive stalwart like Martin Maldonado or Sandy Leon would’ve made sense); Gordon was horrid in 2018; and third baseman Kyle Seager’s both injured and coming off a poor season, temporarily leaving third to the underwhelming Ryon Healy.

The pitching staff’s best hopes are the untested Kikuchi and Sheffield and fellow lefty Marco Gonzalez, who wasn’t great at preventing runs last year (4.00 ERA) but turned in far more encouraging peripherals en route to 3.5 fWAR. Leake’s a decent, albeit unexciting, option in his own right, and Wade LeBlanc’s a back-end type at best. Meanwhile, for the many who relished watching Felix Hernandez at the height of his powers, witnessing the former Cy Young winner, 32, turn into a replacement-level starter has been heartbreaking. He and the Mariners may divorce at the end of the season, if not sooner should his stark decline continue. For now, the man who earned the nickname King Felix in his halcyon days is due $27MM in the last guaranteed year of his deal, rendering him immovable.

The Mariners’ bullpen was an above-average unit in 2018, when it finished 10th in fWAR and ERA, but it basically derived all of its value from Diaz, Nicasio, Colome, Pazos and fellow departure Nick Vincent. Beyond Strickland, it now counts other free-agent pickups Cory Gearrin and Zac Rosscup among its most prominent choices. There are a few interesting young arms kicking around the Seattle roster, but there’ll likely be a fair bit of turnover in the relief unit as the season goes along.

2019 Season Outlook

Expect the Mariners to tack another year onto their playoff drought this season. Seattle’s roster isn’t devoid of talent, but so much has to go right that it’s difficult to imagine the M’s busting out as a Cinderella team in 2019. Realistically, if you’re a Mariners fan, hope for growth from the potential building blocks on hand and for as many nonessential vets as possible to increase their trade value.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

A frugal offseason has given way to a lavish, triumphant spring for the Angels, who no longer have to worry about losing Mike Trout.  The inimitable center fielder is poised to spend his career in Anaheim after inking a decade-long extension last week.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The Angels entered the offseason with only two years of control left over Trout, unquestionably the preeminent player in baseball since he exploded on the scene in 2012. Team success eluded the Angels during the remarkable first seven seasons of Trout’s career, though, as they made the postseason just once (in 2014) and didn’t even win a single playoff game. With that in mind, it would’ve been understandable for Trout to hold off on committing to the Angels for the long haul. On the other hand, it would have been unforgivable for the Halos to not put forth an earnest effort to lock up Trout, who, at 27 years old, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the sport.

To the Angels’ credit, not only did they make an attempt to keep Trout in the fold, but they persuaded him to stay. The 10-year, $360MM extension the Angels gave the seven-time All-Star and two-time MVP stands as the richest contract ever in North American sports, yet the gaudy dollar figure still looks eminently reasonable. The future Hall of Famer is now in line to spend the entirety of his 30s and all of the 2020s in Anaheim, which will give the club plenty of time to capitalize on his presence going forward.

Whether the Angels are in position to take advantage of Trout’s place on their roster this year is in question. Before the Angels locked up Trout, they journeyed through a fairly low-key offseason which included a few modest free-agent signings and no headline-stealing trades. Perhaps if general manager Billy Eppler had his druthers, it would have been a different story. Eppler reportedly targeted a collection of high-profile free agents, including pitchers Patrick Corbin, Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, Zack Britton, David Robertson, Joakim Soria and catchers Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos, but fell short in each pursuit. Still, the majority of Eppler’s prominent offseason acquisitions came at those positions, as he brought in two starters (Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill), a battle-tested closer seeking a rebound from a down season (Cody Allen) and an experienced catcher (Jonathan Lucroy). He also procured first baseman Justin Bour, who thrived in Miami as recently as 2017 but saw his production plummet between the Marlins and Phillies last season.

Before adding those five free agents, Eppler oversaw the Angels’ first managerial search since November 1999, when they hired Mike Scioscia. Trout was only eight years old at the outset of the Scioscia era, a run that included 1,650 regular-season wins and the franchise’s sole World Series title (2002). Scioscia, 60, stepped down after last season, paving the way for the Angels to hire another former major league catcher, Brad Ausmus, as their new skipper. Ausmus managed the Tigers to middling results from 2014-17, though the soon-to-be 50-year-old’s amenability toward analytics helped convince the Angels he merited a second chance atop a big league dugout.

Questions Remaining

The Ausmus-led Angels feature questions aplenty in their pitching staff, in part because of injury issues. Anaheim’s foremost starter, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani, won’t factor in at all as a pitcher this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Likewise, J.C. Ramirez is recovering from TJ surgery, having undergone the procedure nearly a year ago, while Andrew Heaney (elbow inflammation) and Nick Tropeano (shoulder discomfort) are also on the shelf.

It’s paramount for Heaney to return sometime soon, as he turned in 180 respectable innings in 2018 and is likely the Ohtani-less Angels’ No. 1 starter. That’s less a compliment to Heaney — who is solid, granted — than an indictment on the Angels, whose current group of healthy starters doesn’t include anything resembling a front-line option. Harvey qualified as an ace during a stretch with the Mets from 2012-15, but the Dark Knight has since logged a 5.39 ERA/4.76 FIP in 340 1/3 innings and undergone thoracic outlet surgery (in 2016). In fairness to Harvey, who turns 30 today, he did post decent numbers with the Reds after they acquired him from the Mets last May. If he can replicate that performance in Anaheim, he’ll justify the investment.

The club spent a bit less on Cahill, another righty with a history of injuries and inconsistency. The 31-year-old was effective in Oakland last season, though (albeit over just 110 innings), and the Angels are banking on a repeat in 2019. Harvey, Cahill, Tyler Skaggs (who has also dealt with his share of injuries, including this spring), Felix Pena, the just-acquired Chris Stratton and the just-optioned Jaime Barria represent the Angels’ top healthy starters at this point.

If you’re underwhelmed by that group, it’s hard to blame you. If you think the Angels should be going after free agent Dallas Keuchel, who’s inexplicably still available, you’d also be within reason. But Eppler insists he’s bullish on the Angels’ present mix of starters, which seems to make a Keuchel signing unlikely, as does a possible lack of financial wiggle room. The Angels have always run high payrolls under owner Arte Moreno, and that’ll be the case again this season, as they’re at upward of $176MM going into Opening Day. Moreno may not want to go significantly higher than that franchise-record sum. Furthermore, adding Keuchel would either push the Angels into luxury-tax territory or leave them within close proximity of that mark, potentially limiting Moreno’s willingness to approve in-season additions on the trade market. The Halos are currently about $21MM shy of the luxury barrier.

While the Angels’ payroll does rank toward the top of the majors, they’re not spending much on their bullpen. The lone expensive reliever on the roster is Allen, the former Indians closer who joined the Angels on an $8.5MM guarantee in the offseason. Allen has been outstanding for the majority of his career, which began in 2012, though the 30-year-old no longer looks like a shoo-in to offer quality production. Not only was Allen subpar last year, when all of his numbers trended downward to concerning degrees, but he has followed that up with a shaky spring in which his velocity has dipped. The Angels will need the light bulb to go on again for Allen once the regular season begins, especially considering their bullpen lost Blake Parker, Jim Johnson and Jose Alvarez during the winter.

Parker, Johnson and Alvarez were among the Angels’ five leading relievers in terms of innings last year, and each managed passable to above-average run prevention numbers. Alvarez was particularly good, yet the Angels traded him to the Phillies for righty Luis Garcia, who “has the characteristics we gravitate to: strikeouts, ground balls and big stuff,” Eppler said after the deal. It’s anyone’s guess how the trade will pan out, but for now, the loss of Alvarez leaves the Angels devoid of a lefty reliever on their 40-man roster. Allen aside, their bullpen is also lacking a righty with a long track record of success, though 2018 acquisition Ty Buttrey may be on the verge of a breakout if the 16 1/3-inning debut he made last season is any indication. As with Keuchel, Anaheim looks like an on-paper fit for free agent Craig Kimbrel, a possible Hall of Fame closer who’s somehow still without a team. Whether Moreno would sign off on a pricey Kimbrel addition is another matter, but the righty would sure help the Angels’ cause.

A Kimbrel signing wouldn’t answer the questions in the Angels’ position player group, where there are several. Trout, Andrelton Simmons and Ohtani are marvelous, and Justin Upton’s a valuable left fielder. Ohtani won’t return until at least May, however, and Upton’s going to the injured list with turf toe, leaving the Angels with just two guaranteed big-time producers in Trout and Simmons.

Potential Upton replacements in the just-selected Peter Bourjos, Jarrett Parker and Cesar Puello don’t inspire confidence, and unproven outfield prospect Michael Hermosillo (hernia surgery) could also open the season on the IL. Elsewhere in the outfield, while Kole Calhoun has been a better-than-average player for most of his career, he was a replacement-level performer last season.

Turning to the infield, third baseman Zack Cozart underwhelmed last season in the opening act of a three-year, $38MM contract. Lucroy has accounted for minus-0.9 fWAR dating back to 2017, while what remains of the once-amazing Albert Pujols totaled minus-2.1 in the same two-year span. Bour was little more than a league-average offensive first baseman in 2018. At second base, David Fletcher wasn’t much of an offensive threat during his 307-PA debut last season, but he starred as a minor league hitter earlier in the campaign and then stood out as a defender in his initial taste of the majors

The Angels still sought some insurance to help protect against another poor Cozart season and a sophomore slump from Fletcher, though, as they reportedly showed interest in Mike Moustakas, Josh Harrison and Troy Tulowitzki in free agency. In the end, they came away with a trade for the 30-year-old Tommy La Stella, who has been a playable bench piece with the Braves and Cubs over almost 1,000 PAs.

2019 Season Outlook

Trout and Simmons are something like five three-WAR players condensed into two, which raises the Angels’ floor to a considerable extent. Otherwise, there are so many performance- and injury-related concerns on Anaheim’s roster that it’s hard to consider the team a strong bet to break its four-year playoff drought. The good news is that the Angels could benefit from being in a league which lacks a surefire contender after the favored Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Indians. The Angels should be part of a several-team jumble fighting for the AL’s last postseason spot, which may only require 80-some wins to secure. The club is entering 2019 off back-to-back seasons of 80 victories, a number PECOTA projects it to match this year.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason moves?  (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Market Situation For Dallas Keuchel

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Precisely why Dallas Keuchel remains unemployed isn’t entirely known or even knowable. Perhaps he squandered early market opportunities with too high an asking price. It may be that he’s still holding out unrealistic demands. On the other side, clubs are arguably far too willing to roll the dice on fresh young arms. Perhaps they’re too determined to maintain mid-season and future financial flexibility at the expense of immediate, season-long improvements.

[RELATED: Historical Market Price Points For Dallas Keuchel]

The market has been quiet. Last we heard any news on Keuchel, agent Scott Boras said that the accomplished hurler was building up arm strength just as he would have in a team’s camp. While the market situation remains extremely foggy, Boras added that offers were still coming in. Keuchel still isn’t willing to take a “pillow contract,” Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets today, so it seems he’s still holding out hope for a multi-year arrangement of some kind. He could follow the Kendrys Morales approach of waiting until the June draft to sign, thus shedding the requirement that a signing team surrender draft compensation, but that’s hardly the preferred means of procuring a desirable, long-term deal.

The real question remains: what teams are really motivated to go after Keuchel? We’ve looked previously at the market setting for the other unsigned hurler of note, Craig Kimbrel. Now we’ll do so with respect to Keuchel, taking a somewhat different angle of approach. While both are entering age-31 seasons in search of big money, with potential luxury tax ramifications for the signing team, their different pitching roles make for different market circumstances.

Rather than trying to create labels or categories, we’ll just run through the possibilities in narrative form. Here’s how the market breaks down …

It’s rarely wise to rule out teams entirely, but some teams lack the outlook and resources to be worthy of further consideration. The Orioles and Marlins can safely be scratched off the list of possibilities. It’d be nothing short of shocking to see the Royals make such a move when the club is already pushing high-priced starters into the bullpen. While the Giants and Rangers have much greater spending capacity, they’ve already got staffs full of veterans that include some significant financial commitments. The Tigers also seem to have already placed their bets for the coming season.

Neither is it really possible to envision a path for certain teams that have real hopes of winning seasons in 2019. The Indians and Pirates are low-budget contenders that don’t have the need to spend in the rotation; the Cubs and Red Sox are big-budget contenders that have full starting units and have probably already committed their 2019 payroll.

It’s not much easier to see a variety of other contending teams as Keuchel pursuers, though as we go down the line it becomes somewhat easier to imagine a move. The Boras connection to the Nationals means you can never say never, but the organization wants to stay below the luxury line and already has promised rotation spots to give hurlers. While some injuries arguably create an opening for the Dodgers, they still have ample options on hand and it’s tough to imagine them shoe-horning yet another pitcher onto their 40-man.  Similarly, the Yankees have options — a trio of young arms holding down the fort with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, and Gio Gonzalez waiting in the wings — but could still stand to stamp out some uncertainty. In years past, one or more of these clubs might have shrugged and thrown a stack of cash at Keuchel. It doesn’t feel very likely in this climate, particularly with the luxury tax implications for all of these clubs.

Several lesser-spending teams arguably make more sense on paper, but still feel unlikely. The Rockies, Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers could upgrade a rotation spot and boost their depth by adding Keuchel, but all likely feel it wouldn’t be enough of an improvement to warrant the cost with other, more pressing areas of need on their rosters.

Perhaps there’s a bit more cause for a pair of other National League clubs to consider a bold move. Like the above-mentioned teams, the value of a win is quite high given the densely packed divisions. But there’s a stronger case for Keuchel in particular for the Mets and Phillies. Both organizations have already already spent big on veterans. The former could bite the bullet and knock Jason Vargas out of the rotation. The latter could plug the higher-floor Keuchel into the starting unit while deploying Vince Velasquez as a potentially fascinating multi-inning reliever.

There’s at least an argument to be made for some other teams to take a look at the right price, even if the move would largely be future-oriented. Several American League clubs are lining up for a 2020 push — and surely also realize there’s at least some opening to surprise in the current year. At the right price point, Keuchel could be a value on a multi-year deal. The Mariners are always tinkering. The White Sox missed on their biggest targets. The Blue Jays added a few low-cost veterans but have tons of rotation uncertainty now and in the future. And on the NL side, the Diamondbacks are attempting to stay competitive while undergoing some roster changes.

Here’s about where things start to get interesting. The Rays already spent on Charlie Morton, but could consider Keuchel on much the same theory if the deal is short enough in length. While the Twins picked up Martin Perez to fill out their rotation, and have some younger depth pieces as well, the teams still has only meager future commitments and a big opportunity in the division.Neither of these teams really wants to spend on Keuchel past the present season, but there’s an argument that both should strongly consider making an exception.

Hopping over to the AL West, there are three clubs that make some degree of sense. The incumbent Astros know Keuchel better than anyone. They have kept in touch all winter long and remain an obvious fall-back spot, though it doesn’t seem they’ll move up their offer with so many internal options still available. The Angels and Athletics have ample need in the rotation. The public indications are that they’re fresh out of spending availability, but both organizations could justify stretching for Keuchel at this time.

Perhaps no teams in baseball make greater sense, though, than the Padres and Braves. It’s already an eye-popping offseason in San Diego, with Manny Machado coming aboard and top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack making the Opening Roster, but the club’s rotation is still loaded with uncertainty. The Atlanta organization is defending a division title against three strong adversaries, has made it clear it has financial resources available now and in the future, and has seen several notable health questions arise in camp.

It’s hard to call any team in baseball an obvious favorite at this point. An injury could change the field quite a bit, though it’s anyone’s guess whether and when that might occur and Keuchel’s appeal as an immediate option will not exactly grow as he sits on the sidelines. It’s a tough spot for the veteran.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Apart from a late push in the Bryce Harper market, the Giants stuck to mostly low-profile signings and acquisitions in Farhan Zaidi’s first offseason as the club’s president of baseball operations.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Giants Organizational Depth Chart | Giants Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Signed to a minor league deal last offseason, Derek Holland ended up being a major bargain for the Giants.  After four injury-riddled and ineffective years with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland got back on track by posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.88 K/9, and 2.52 K/9 rate over 171 1/3 innings for San Francisco in 2018.

The Reds, Rangers, and Mets were all linked to Holland over the course of the winter, though the southpaw ended up returning to the Giants on a one-year deal worth $7MM in guaranteed money, plus the club holds an option for 2020 that could result in Holland earning as much as $15MM over the course of the next two seasons.  There weren’t any big red flags in Holland’s peripherals from last season, so this new contract would also be well worth the Giants’ while if Holland remains healthy.

Drew PomeranzThere’s more of an injury concern in regards to new arrival Drew Pomeranz, who has had health issues over the course of his career and pitched only 74 innings last season due to a variety of arm problems.  At just a $1.5MM guaranteed salary, however, the Giants aren’t taking much of a financial risk on Pomeranz, and he is only a year removed from giving the Red Sox 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA pitching.  Pomeranz is penciled in as the fifth starter (behind Madison Bumgarner, Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Dereck Rodriguez). San Francisco has the likes of Andrew Suarez, waiver claims Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez (if they clear waivers and remain in the organization), and former first-rounder Tyler Beede as Triple-A depth options.

Hunter Strickland was somewhat surprisingly let go just prior to the non-tender deadline, though the Giants have been getting good results from many of their relievers this spring, leaving the club with a bit of a logjam for the Opening Day bullpen.  Rule 5 Draft pick Travis Bergen has to remain on the MLB roster all season or else be offered back to Toronto, though Bergen has pitched well enough to retain his position regardless.  Low-risk acquisitions Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott, Fernando Abad, or Pat Venditte could either provide depth if they remain in the organization, win jobs outright, or potentially move into roles left open should the Giants swing a late trade involving Will Smith or Tony Watson.

A change was made at backup catcher, as Nick Hundley will be replaced by pair of late-spring acquisitions.  After it seemed like rookie Aramis Garcia and minor league signings Rene Rivera and Stephen Vogt would vie for the job, San Francisco changed course by adding veterans Erik Kratz and Tom Murphy.  Rivera was cut loose, while Vogt and Garcia will provide additional depth in the minors.  It seems like enough of a logjam that a future move seems inevitable, though the Giants want to have plenty of catching on hand as Buster Posey recovers from hip surgery.  On the plus side, Posey seems to be making good progress and is on track to appear in the Opening Day lineup, though obviously the Giants will keep a close eye on their franchise player’s status.

Outfield was the Giants’ biggest need heading into the offseason, and the club ultimately brought in a number of new faces to supplement youngster Steven Duggar (who looks to play more or less every day in center field).  Former Rockies/Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra will make the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league contract.  The Giants essentially swapped one Rule 5 pick for another in trading for Connor Joe and letting Drew Ferguson return to the Astros.  Michael Reed, Mike Gerber, and Craig Gentry are also on hand, while incumbent Mac Williamson remains in the mix for at least part-time duty in left field.

Yangervis Solarte hasn’t appeared in a big league game as an outfielder since 2014, though the former Blue Jays utilityman has been working out in left field during Spring Training with an eye towards improving his versatility.  Between Solarte, Joe, and Alen Hanson, the Giants have several players with experience at multiple positions — potentially bumping Pablo Sandoval out of the mix.

Questions Remaining

Of course, the Giants could have made a much more newsworthy outfield upgrade had they landed Harper.  The team was something of an eleventh-hour entry into “Harper’s Bazaar,” though San Francisco ended up being Harper’s apparent second choice before the star free agent signed a (temporarily) record-setting 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies.  The Giants’ reported offer of 12 years and $310MM fell shy, though the team would’ve had to top the $350MM mark to truly outbid the Phillies due to California’s higher tax rate.

It goes without saying that signing Harper would’ve changed not only the trajectory of this Giants offseason, but also the team’s outlook for the next several years.  With Harper in the fold, the Giants would have indicated a full-fledged push towards contending while many of their highest-salaried players (Bumgarner through this season, Samardzija and Mark Melancon through 2020, and then Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, and Evan Longoria through 2021) are still with the team.  Along those same lines, the Giants also had interest in signing Yusei Kikuchi before the Japanese left-hander joined the Mariners.

Without Harper or Kikuchi, however, San Francisco left the offseason still straddling the middle ground between contending and fully rebuilding.  The club has to this point resisted overtures from rival teams and held on to Bumgarner, Watson, and Smith; yet the Giants also took a very modest approach to adding to their roster.  They weren’t going to deal any prospects from an already-thin farm system, and they settled for inexpensive free agent and trade additions after missing out on Kikuchi and Harper.

Joe Panik’s status is perhaps indicative of the Giants’ overall stance this offseason.  The team kept Panik in the fold rather than non-tendering him following an injury-shortened and replacement-level season, at a one-year, $3.8MM deal to avoid arbitration.  At the same time, however, San Francisco also looked into signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu while checking the trade market to see what could be obtained for Panik.  As it turned out, the Giants didn’t get that upgrade, and will instead go into the season with a known quantity in Panik who the club hopes will rebound.

A case can be made that Zaidi may be waiting to see how things shake out; come mid-season, he may have some new trade avenues or even the makings of a contending core.  After all, Posey, Belt, Bumgarner, Samardzija, Crawford, and Melancon were all limited by injuries in 2018 — better health from even a few of those names would likely make a difference in the standings.  A full teardown wasn’t really possible this winter anyway since so many of those same players have limited trade value, due to their down years, health histories, hefty contracts, no-trade clauses, or all of the above.

On the other hand, it’s also unrealistic to imagine that all of those veterans will enjoy bounce-back years.  With so many big contracts already verging on albatross territory for the team, one can’t entirely blame Zaidi for eschewing the type of expensive acquisitions that have backfired on the Giants in recent years.  Signing a Harper or a Kikuchi is one thing, though settling for a lower-tier free agent as a stopgap isn’t the type of move that would fuel a bigger jump up the standings.

If San Francisco isn’t contending by midseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club shift into a more definitive sell mode, at the very least on pending free agents like Bumgarner or Smith.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see the Giants explore being both buyers and sellers at the deadline — moving some short-term assets while taking on an expensive longer-term asset that could help them in 2020 or beyond.  If the Giants were willing to spend $310MM on Harper, they’re clearly open to exceeding the luxury tax threshold again in order to land premium talent.

Should 2019 end up being the last hurrah for this group of Giants stars before a rebuild, it’s perhaps fitting longtime manager Bruce Bochy will retire when the year is out.  The three-time World Series champion will manage a 25th season before stepping out of the dugout and starting his inevitable path to Cooperstown.

2019 Season Outlook

Frankly, there’s still a few days for the roster to change, which could shift the outlook. Regardless, an awful lot would have to go right for the Giants to go from 89 losses in 2018 to a playoff contender in 2019.  In a very competitive National League, the Giants could themselves battling to stay out of last place in their division, rather than challenging the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2019

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In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season.  Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that recently, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is some subjectivity involved on the borderline teams.  I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2019 season with faith and hope: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, Twins, Astros, Athletics, Angels, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks

Teams that enter 2019 without faith and hope: Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Marlins, Giants

Conclusion: 70% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2019.

Arguable teams:

  • The Blue Jays carry a 76 win projection and a 3.9% chance of reaching the playoffs.  If a team has a high-70s win projection, we look at its offseason to determine its interest in winning.  The Jays’ offseason was clearly that of a club that is not pushing to win in 2019.
  • It feels like the White Sox tried to pull out of their rebuild in the 2018-19 offseason, but their pursuit of Manny Machado and other big names fell short.  Looking at the veterans they did acquire, plus a 72 win projection and 1.1% chance of making the playoffs, and the Sox deserve to be lumped in with the Tigers and Royals in baseball’s least competitive division.
  • The Rangers’ preseason projections are about the same as the White Sox.  Texas spent a fair bit of money stocking their rotation with post-Tommy John pitchers, most notably Lance Lynn.  But so many things would have to go right for this team to sniff the playoffs that we have to classify them as a team without faith and hope this year.
  • The Mariners have already snagged a couple of wins in Tokyo, pushing their projection to 76 and playoff odds to 3.6%.  GM Jerry Dipoto authored a complicated offseason that involved shipping off Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and James Pazos.  In some cases, Dipoto acquired big leaguers in return, and he also signed Yusei Kikuchi, but it’s clear the Mariners are prepared to take a step back in 2019 even if they have not committed to a multiyear rebuild.
  • The Reds have a 79 win projection, but the relative parity of the NL Central means they have a 15.7% shot at the playoffs.  Plus, the Reds were clearly in go-for-it mode during the winter, bringing in Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Alex Wood to lead a retooled rotation.  They also added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  An extension from the Reds will prevent Gray from reaching free agency after the winter, but all the other key acquisitions will be eligible.  Give the Reds credit: they’re trying.
  • The Pirates aren’t much better than a team like the Mariners, but the Bucs carry an 11.4% shot at the playoffs given their division.  The club had an extremely low-key offseason, missing an opportunity to more clearly position themselves as contenders.  The team did little to earn the designation of a team trying to win, but it’s still true that their fans have faith and hope entering the 2019 campaign.
  • The Diamondbacks are a lot like the Pirates: they have a 77 win projection and a 9.7% chance at the playoffs.  The team made bargain acquisitions and shipped off longtime star Paul Goldschmidt.  Still, the D’Backs focused on Major League players in return for Goldy, who was in the final year of his contract.  They are the most borderline of the borderline cases, but there’s enough chance of a long shot playoff run to put them in the “faith and hope” category.
  • I can’t say the same for the Giants, who finished second in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and own a 73 win projection and 3.5% chance at the playoffs.  Like many of the teams listed here, I wouldn’t call the Giants a rebuilding team at present.  However, their biggest offseason move was re-signing Derek Holland, their outfield may be the game’s worst, and it’s a club without a real chance of contending.  Contrast that with the Padres, who might only be 4-5 wins better than the Giants but added a superstar player in Manny Machado and will conceivably look to add this summer rather than subtract.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Blue Jays added some veteran stopgaps to their roster, while saying goodbye to some of the best-known members of their 2015-16 playoff teams.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Blue Jays Organizational Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The rotation was Toronto’s clearest area of need going into the offseason, and as expected, the Blue Jays added some inexpensive veteran arms to bolster a very young crop of starting pitchers.  Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard, and (eventually) Clay Buchholz will all take turns in the rotation, backing up the incumbent top two of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.

Matt Shoemaker

Naturally, there’s a lot of uncertainty baked into that mix given the lengthy injury histories of Shoemaker, Buchholz, Sanchez, and even Stroman and Richard last season.  There’s also the looming possibility that any of these pitchers could find themselves on new teams by the trade deadline.  As such, Ryan Borucki is expected to receive plenty of starts throughout the course of the year, though Borucki himself will miss some time to begin the season.  One of Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, Sam Gaviglio, and the newly-acquired Trent Thornton will fill in while Borucki is out and until Buchholz gets game-ready, and these younger arms are likely to get their share of innings before 2019 is out.

Could Toronto’s rotation end up being a quiet strength for the team?  It would require a lot of bounceback years, though it isn’t out of the question, especially if Stroman is healthy after an injury-filled 2018 and Sanchez has finally gotten over the finger/blister problems that have plagued him over the last two years.  Shoemaker’s last two seasons have been marred by injuries, though when he did pitch last season, his peripheral numbers were much better than his 4.94 ERA over 31 innings for the Angels would indicate.  Buchholz delivered an eye-popping 2.01 ERA over 98 1/3 innings of work for Arizona last season before a flexor mass strain in September ended his year.

Beyond the rotation, the Jays made their now-annual additions of relievers who could very well become midseason trade chips.  In the tradition of such past names as Joe Smith, Seunghwan Oh, and John Axford, this winter’s crop of bullpen signings included David Phelps, Daniel Hudson, Bud Norris, and temporarily Axford again, though he was released in the wake of elbow problems that will sideline the Canadian right-hander for at least a month.  (It wouldn’t be surprising, though, to see the Jays re-sign Axford to a new contract in short order.)

It should be noted that Hudson is the only of this group who is entirely healthy.  Norris has been limited in Spring Training, while Phelps won’t be back until midseason due to his recovery from March 2018 Tommy John surgery.  This timeline likely means that Phelps may not be dealt at all; his contract contains a flexible club option for 2020, as both the Blue Jays and the right-hander are seemingly approaching this year as something of an extended recovery period.

As with the new starters, the new relievers also have some upside.  Norris was the Cardinals’ closer for much of 2018, and Phelps was a strong contributor for the Marlins and Mariners in 2016-17 before undergoing surgery.  The combination of Hudson, Norris, Ryan Tepera (if healthy, that is) and closer Ken Giles gives the Jays a pretty solid end-game mix, and a recovered Phelps will only improve that group.  Sergio Romo and Adam Warren were a couple of the other bullpen names considered by the Blue Jays this winter.

After Aledmys Diaz was traded to Houston for Thornton, and Troy Tulowitzki was given an outright release, the shortstop position was seemingly cleared for Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Instead, however, it now looks like the Jays have an eye towards playing Gurriel all over the diamond since he might not be ready for the defensive challenge of being an everyday shortstop.  (Indeed, it looks like Gurriel will begin the year as a second baseman, since Devon Travis is again sidelined with knee problems.)

Minor league signing Eric Sogard could end up filling the utility infield void, and for the regular shortstop role, the Blue Jays turned to Freddy Galvis.  The former Phillies and Padres infielder is the picture of durability (he has played in every game in the last two seasons and averaged 158 games per year since 2015), and he brings more defensive stability up the middle.  How much stability is perhaps a question depending on which of Galvis’ strangely divergent defensive metrics you believe, as he went from a +3.2 UZR/150 and minus-5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2017 to minus-3.8 UZR.150 and +7 DRS last season.  Even just average glovework, however, represents an upgrade for a Jays team that was one of the league’s worst defensive clubs in 2018.

Questions Remaining

The Blue Jays moved squarely into rebuild mode last season, and this winter continued to be about setting the table for their future young talent.  To that end, the Jays bid adieu to some stalwart veterans — Marco Estrada departed in free agency, Tulowitzki was released, and Russell Martin was dealt to the Dodgers.

The latter two moves were more about roster clearance than financial flexibility, as the Jays are still on the hook for just under $54MM total owed in remaining contract obligations to Martin (through 2019) and Tulowitzki (through 2020).  Naturally, the team had little hope of finding a trade partner to eat even more of that figure given that Tulowitzki missed all of 2018, while Martin struggled to just a .194/.338/.325 slash line through 352 plate appearances.

Even accounting for these two big contracts and the $12MM remaining on Kendrys Morales’ contract, the Jays have very little in the way of future salary obligations; Gurriel is the only player owed money beyond the 2020 season.  This led to some speculation that Toronto could explore some of the bigger-name players available this winter, and the Jays did indeed raise some eyebrows when they were linked to some major Scott Boras clients (Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, Marwin Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi) on the rumor mill.  While it seems like the Blue Jays made a legitimate bid for Kikuchi, the other talks were perhaps exploratory at best, and only Harper and Kikuchi would have fit as a true longer-term asset for a Jays club that doesn’t appear ready to contend until 2021.

Until then, the Jays will focus on determining which of their group of highly-touted young players will be part of this next core.  2019 will finally see the debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the Major League stage, as attention can finally turn to Guerrero’s prodigious on-field talents, rather than his status (perhaps shared with Kris Bryant) as the poster child for clubs keeping top prospects in the minors just long enough to gain an extra year of team control.  The situation became a moot point in Guerrero’s case, since his recovery from an oblique strain will keep him out until at least mid-April anyway.  Still, “oblique” might also be a good description of Jays executives’ increasingly far-flung arguments for why Guerrero wasn’t ticketed for the Opening Day roster, since obviously they couldn’t openly mention service time considerations.

The Jays’ plan is to deploy Brandon Drury at third base until Guerrero arrives, then move Drury to second base, perhaps in a timeshare with Gurriel or (if healthy) Travis.  Alternatively, Gurriel could split time between second base, shortstop, and left field, joining Teoscar Hernandez and Billy McKinney in the left field mix.  Outfielder Anthony Alford has enjoyed a big Spring Training, and he’ll get a longer look sometime this season if he proves capable of staying healthy and gets some more minor league seasoning.

As with the rotation, the Blue Jays’ position player mix is pretty fluid since at least some of the club’s veterans (Morales, Galvis, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar) are likely to be wearing different uniforms come September.  Smoak and Pillar each received a bit of trade buzz over the winter, with Smoak getting some attention from the Rockies and Pillar from the Giants, though no moves involving that group have ultimately been made. (A deal prior to Opening Day is still technically possible.)

Since Toronto faces a steep uphill battle in the AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team start shopping its veterans relatively early, potentially to get the jump on other sellers.  Especially now that the August trade period is no more, one wonders if the Jays might be open to trading Smoak, Pillar, and to a somewhat lesser extent Grichuk or Galvis at any time this season, rather than waiting until the July 31 trade deadline.

The same could be said of Stroman, Sanchez, or Giles, who project as Toronto’s top potential trade chips.  The Jays were reportedly open to dealing Giles this winter, while Stroman and Sanchez each received attention.  Stroman in particular drew significant interest from such teams as the Reds and Padres.  Stroman has made it clear he wants to stay in Toronto and was displeased at the lack of contract extension talks as well as the fact that the team wasn’t making a bigger push to contend in 2019.

Since the Jays’ asking price for the two starters was, in the words of Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, found by some suitors to be “uncomfortably high,” it makes more sense for Toronto to keep Stroman and Sanchez for at least the opening portion of the season.  This allows the two right-handers to rebuild their value by proving that they’re both recovered from their rough 2018 seasons.  If the Blue Jays see Stroman and Sanchez as part of the rebuild process rather than rotation cornerstones of their next contending roster, the team surely wants to maximize its return in potential trades, particularly after receiving relatively little for Martin and Josh Donaldson.  With both Stroman and Sanchez controlled through 2020, a healthy version of either pitcher would draw widespread interest.

2019 Season Outlook

Another year in the 73-78 win range seems likely for the rebuilding Jays, as a very tough division schedule will make it hard for even an improved team to gain much traction in the AL Wild Card race.  If Guerrero comes close to matching his incredible projected numbers, however, it’ll be an exciting year for Toronto fans.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After surprising their way to the the majors’ fourth-best record in 2018, the low-budget Athletics made a series of short-term commitments this past offseason.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Athletics Offseason Depth Chart | Athletics Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

A spate of injuries devastated the A’s rotation in 2018 and forced them to rely heavily on inexpensive signings Trevor Cahill, Edwin Jackson and Brett Anderson – three veterans whose best days looked long gone when the club added them. As it turned out, though, the trio held up reasonably well over a combined 282 1/3 innings and helped the upstart A’s to a wild-card berth. Cahill, the most effective member of the group, parlayed his strong 2018 into a $9MM guarantee with the division-rival Angels over the winter. Oakland also waved goodbye to Jackson, who hasn’t landed a deal with anyone despite his resurgent season, though it did bring back Anderson. Injuries have been a consistent problem during the 31-year-old Anderson’s career, including during his 80 1/3-inning showing last season, yet the A’s decided to gamble on him again for a mere $1.5MM salary.

Accompanying Anderson in the A’s rotation are fellow free-agent signees Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada, who started the club’s season-opening losses to the Mariners in Japan. The 33-year-old Fiers first joined the A’s in a trade with the Tigers last August, after which he logged solid numbers across 53 frames. While Oakland then non-tendered Fiers in lieu of paying him a projected $9.7MM via arbitration, it quickly brought him back on what it regards as more team-friendly numbers (two years, $14.1MM).

Estrada took an even more palatable pact – a guaranteed $4MM – as he seeks a rebirth after a couple down seasons in Toronto. For a pitcher who posted an abysmal 5.64 ERA/5.44 FIP last season, Estrada looks like a shrewd signing for the Athletics, as his fly ball-heavy skill set should mesh with their cavernous home park. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2018, no one managed a lower groundball percentage (24.0) than Estrada, who’s now shifting to a stadium that was death on fly balls last year. Plus, having generated truckloads of infield pop-ups in recent years, Estrada stands to benefit from the enormous foul territory at the Oakland Coliseum.

Estrada and the other members of the A’s revamped rotation will turn the ball over to a bullpen that was a premier unit in 2018, largely owing to elite closer Blake Treinen’s presence. In-season acquisitions Jeurys Familia and Shawn Kelley also helped the cause, and even though the A’s showed interest in re-signing both right-handers, they departed in free agency. Oakland still came away with a well-known bullpen prize on the open market, though, as its most expensive offseason deal went to longtime standout Joakim Soria. The 34-year-old looks as if he’ll be the primary setup man for the team, which also features other established choices in Ryan Buchter, Fernando Rodney, Yusmeiro Petit and Lou Trivino. Unsurprisingly, then, ZIPS projects the A’s to once again boast one of the majors’ most formidable bullpens this year.

On the position player side, a particularly notable offseason change came at second base, where the A’s bid adieu to Jed Lowrie in free agency but welcomed Jurickson Profar in a trade with the division-rival Rangers. Lowrie enjoyed an excellent pair of seasons in Oakland from 2017-18, though his age (34) and extensive injury history likely factored into the A’s decision to switch things up at the keystone. A few weeks after the Athletics landed Profar, Lowrie accepted a two-year, $20MM offer from the Mets, with whom he is already battling an injury. Profar is also under control for the next two seasons – albeit at a much lower rate ($3.6MM) in the wake of a somewhat disappointing Texas tenure. Although Profar has struggled for the majority of his career thus far, the light bulb may have gone on in 2018. To close out his time in Arlington, the switch-hitting Profar accounted for 2.9 fWAR over 594 plate appearances, hit .254/.335/.458 with 20 home runs and 10 steals, and struck out in just 14.8 percent of PAs.

Oakland also welcomed new faces at catcher, where it brought in Chris Herrmann on a big league deal and Nick Hundley on a minors pact, as well as in the outfield (Robbie Grossman, $2MM). Herrmann underwent knee surgery earlier this month, though, meaning he’ll open the season on the 60-day injured list. His absence paved the way for Hundley to earn a spot alongside holdover Josh Phegley. Now, the 35-year-old Hundley is filling the grizzled vet role Jonathan Lucroy took on last season. Lucroy joined Cahill in bolting for Anaheim in free agency, but the former’s production should be easier to replace. The respected Lucroy was a hit behind the scenes in Oakland, but the ex-star’s numbers on both ends left much to be desired. Of course, it’s up in the air whether the unexciting trio of Herrmann (when healthy), Hundley and Phegley will provide much of an upgrade over Lucroy.

Similarly, Grossman isn’t the most compelling addition. To the former Astro and Twin’s credit, however, he gets on base – a skill everyone knows the Athletics have long valued – which should make him an improvement over the 2018 version of the now-departed Matt Joyce. Grossman compiled a superb .371 OBP during his 1,310-PA stint with the Twins, thanks mostly to a 13.9 percent walk rate. But the switch-hitting 29-year-old brings minimal power to the table, which was especially true in 2018 (five home runs, .111 ISO in 465 PAs), and historically hasn’t provided much either in the field or on the bases. Despite his flaws, Grossman’s likely to play an important role in the A’s outfield – especially with Nick Martini recovering from a knee injury.

Questions Remaining

Concerns are plentiful in Oakland’s rotation, which will rely on a series of iffy options to begin the season. At this point, there’s nothing resembling a front-line starter among the quintet of Anderson, Fiers, Estrada, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt, though the 25-year-old Montas has at least provided reason for optimism this spring. More realistically, electrifying lefty Jesus Luzardo, 21, is the A’s best hope to conjure up an ace from within. However, in what has become an all-too-typical occurrence for the A’s, Luzardo’s on the shelf with an arm injury (a rotator cuff strain, to be exact).

If healthy, Luzardo could have cracked the A’s season-opening rotation, but he’ll instead miss at least the first several weeks of the campaign. Likewise, Sean Manaea, A.J. Puk, Jharel Cotton, James Kaprielian and Daniel Gossett will sit out some or all of 2019, leaving Oakland in a similar position to last year. The A’s still found a way to adapt and survive then, thanks in part to the decision to mimic the Rays’ opener strategy down the stretch. The role proved beneficial for veteran reliever Liam Hendriks, who came back from a demotion off the A’s 40-man roster late in the season to thrive (playoff loss to the Yankees notwithstanding). We could see more of Hendriks & Co. at the start of games in 2019 if Oakland’s not content with its collection of traditional starters.

As mentioned earlier, the A’s pitchers are slated to throw to a weak-looking mix of catchers. Relative to his position, Hundley has been fine at times with the bat, but his defensive numbers have been poor for the most part; Phegley has been one of the worst hitters in baseball since 2017 (59 wRC+); and Herrmann’s a journeyman who hasn’t offered much as either as a batter or a defender across 898 major league PAs. No matter, Oakland’s leaning on that behind-the-plate trio as it counts down to the arrival of 24-year-old prospect Sean Murphy – a player Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs believe could blossom into “an above-average regular” in the bigs. It’s possible Murphy’s forthcoming promotion prevented the A’s from making a splashier offseason pickup behind the plate. They did show interest in Wilson Ramos and Kurt Suzuki, but both signed affordable deals elsewhere. Meanwhile, even though Yasmani Grandal languished on the market before settling for a shockingly reasonable guarantee (one year, $18.25MM with Milwaukee), Oakland never pursued the former Padre and Dodger.

Aside from catcher, it appeared the A’s were going to enter the season without any massive concerns in their position player group. Unfortunately, that changed this week with the news that first baseman Matt Olson underwent right hand surgery, which will cost him at least the first month of the season. While manager Bob Melvin had the luxury of writing Olson’s name into his lineup 162 times last year, he’ll have to temporarily make do with a Profar-Mark Canha platoon at first, according to executive vice president Billy Beane. Profar’s the team’s No. 1 second baseman, though, which means it’ll turn to Chad Pinder or Franklin Barreto at the keystone when he has to occupy Olson’s spot. When Olson does come back, it’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll suffer any ill effects from his injury; if not, an infield consisting of him, Profar, superstar third baseman Matt Chapman and shortstop Marcus Semien looks enviable on paper. Meanwhile, although the Athletics lack a Chapman-type franchise player or a Khris Davis-esque masher among their main outfielders, Stephen Piscotty, Ramon Laureano, Canha, Pinder, Grossman, Barreto, Martini, Luis Barrera, Skye Bolt and Dustin Fowler do comprise a deep and respectable group of 40-man possibilities.

2019 Season Outlook

Oakland has somewhat frequently overcome the odds during the long-running Beane era, and it’ll have to do the same in 2019. Even before the Athletics lost Luzardo, Olson and the first two games of their season, they weren’t a popular pick to repeat their 2018 success. Indeed, on the heels of a modest offseason, PECOTA projects the A’s for just 78 victories – 19 fewer than last year’s total.

How would you grade the Athletics’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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