MLBTR Poll: Julio Teheran’s Option
The Braves are currently licking their wounds after collapsing in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup against the Cardinals on Thursday. Before the series began, Atlanta made the decision to leave right-hander Julio Teheran off its roster in order to deepen its bench. It wasn’t long ago that keeping Teheran out of a playoff series would have been unthinkable for the Braves, as he was once among the crown jewels of the franchise. In fact, during his first two full seasons (2013-14), Teheran notched 63 starts and 406 2/3 innings of 3.03 ERA/3.58 FIP ball with 7.88 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Prior to the second of those seasons, the Braves locked up Teheran to an extension worth a guaranteed $32.4MM over six years. At the time, it was the second-largest pact given to a pitcher with just two years’ service time.
Now 28, Teheran has hung with the Braves through the entirety of his deal, though he hasn’t been able to deliver the results he did during his early career coming-out party. Now, it’s possible he’s just about at the end of the line as a Brave. After the season concludes, the Braves will have a call to make on whether to exercise the $12MM club option for 2020 that they included in Teheran’s contract. They could pick it up with the goal of retaining Teheran, exercise it and try to trade him or decline it in favor of a $1MM buyout.
A one-year, $12MM gamble on Teheran wouldn’t look wholly unappealing for the Braves or anyone else. In Atlanta’s case, the club will head into the offseason with only Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz looking sure to return from this year’s staff (Game 1 NLDS starter Dallas Keuchel is a pending free agent). The team could also explore free agency and trades for other possible solutions and-or turn to young arms like Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Muller sometime in 2020. That foursome has little to no major league experience under its belt, though. Wright and Wilson have struggled over a small sample of MLB innings, while Anderson and Muller have not debuted yet.
If nothing else, Teheran has shown a consistent ability to eat innings. He’s fresh off his seventh consecutive regular season of 30-plus starts. Moreover, in 2019, Teheran continued an annual trend of yielding a low batting average on balls in play (.266), recording a solid home run-to-fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and outproducing his fielding-independent numbers. Across a team-high 174 2/3 innings, he managed a 3.81 ERA despite a far less appealing 4.66 FIP, 5.26 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA. While Teheran added a career-high 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings, he also turned in his second-largest walk rate (4.28 BB/9), once again induced few ground balls (39 percent), logged an all-time low swinging-strike percentage (9.2) and averaged a personal-worst 89.7 mph on his four-seam fastball – the pitch he relies on most.
Teheran clearly has his flaws, but that doesn’t mean the Braves will move on from him. It also doesn’t mean he’ll wind up making zero contributions this postseason (he could get back on their roster immediately as a result of Chris Martin‘s oblique injury). Atlanta obviously has greater priorities right now than worrying about Teheran’s future, but once the Braves’ season ends, what do you think they’ll do with him?
(Poll link for app users)
Predict Julio Teheran's offseason fate
-
ATL will exercise option with the intention of keeping him 34% (1,288)
-
ATL will exercise option and shop him 33% (1,247)
-
He'll become a free agent 33% (1,236)
Total votes: 3,771
What Happens When Everyone Can Hit 30 Home Runs?
When I was a kid, prior to the 1994 strike, it was common for about a dozen MLB players to hit 30+ home runs in a season. The only notable exception was in 1987, when the so-called “rabbit ball” led to 28 players hitting 30+ home runs. There was an apparent over-correction in 1988, when only five players managed the feat. Outside of those seasons, it was pretty much a lock that 10-13 different players would have 30 home run power in a given season.
Something changed again in 1993, as David Schoenfield of ESPN noted, and it wasn’t just the addition of the Rockies or the dawning of the PED era. After the strike, from 1996 through 2004, it became common to see 30 or more players able to hit 30 home runs in a season. The peak was from 1999-2001, a period in which 40 or more players were able to reach the 30 home run plateau annually.
The year 2000 bears similarities to the just-finished 2019 campaign. Unlike the preceding seasons, which saw the single-season home run record of 61 being challenged and broken by Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire, in 2000, Sosa led MLB with 50 home runs. But the distribution was widespread – 47 different players hit 30+ home runs in 2000, a record that stood until this year. As in 2000, only one player reached the 50 mark in the homer-happy 2019 season, rookie Pete Alonso.
Once steroid testing began in 2005, we entered a five-year period in which about 30 players were capable of hitting 30 home runs in a season. Then from 2010-15, there was a further reduction in 30 home run bats, as typically only about 20 players would reach that level each year.
The pendulum started to swing back upward in 2016, and in 2019 a new record was set: 58 different players hit 30 or more home runs. Players such as Renato Nunez, Yuli Gurriel, Mitch Garver, Ketel Marte, and Eduardo Escobar – not generally thought of as 30 home run threats – are included in that group. The chart below shows the number of hitters with 30+ home runs per season, from 1996 through 2019.
With MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred planning to make changes to the baseball, it’s likely this home run trend will be reversed by 2021. While you may be pondering how to account for 30 home runs being the new 20 home runs in your 2020 fantasy draft, we should also expect continued ramifications in player compensation. When there’s a surplus of home run hitters available, those players are not able to command the same prices as before. In 2014, only 11 MLB players hit 30 or more home runs, and only two of them were free agents. Is it any surprise that Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Yasmany Tomas, Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Chase Headley, Nick Markakis, and Melky Cabrera received free agent contracts totaling over half a billion dollars?
Now, players like Kole Calhoun or Jose Abreu will reach free agency coming off 33 home run seasons and stand no chance of receiving the $42MM contract Melky Cabrera got coming off a 16 home run season. The arbitration system will become increasingly out of step with the open market, leading to an increased supply of free agents, further depressing salaries. The juiced ball of the last few seasons is just one more reason free agent salaries will be suppressed this winter.
It is at least positive that MLB and the players’ union are having discussions with two years remaining on the current collective bargaining agreement, but the owners are in the catbird seat. Unlike in 1994, it is the players who now seek to drastically change the status quo. I imagine that whatever scant public support players had 25 years ago in resisting the owners’ imposition of a salary cap, they’ll somehow have even less this time around in trying to upend the system. The devaluing of the home run is just one more way in which the chips are stacked in the owners’ favor in the labor negotiations.
Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds
We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll now turn to a Reds club that has its eyes fixed on returning to the postseason. Having already pulled off a surprising mid-season strike for veteran righty Trevor Bauer, the Reds will be looking to add a few more key pieces this winter.
1. Take Heed Of Other Teams’ Ramp-Up Difficulties
When fans hear Cincinnati baseball ops chief Dick Williams speak of riding a bigger payroll to the postseason, they surely have flashbacks to the team’s recent 2010-13 inflection point. But they should shudder at the thought of what came before (nine-straight losing campaigns) and after (six straight) that four-season stretch. Williams and co. must work not only to get back to the promised land, but to create a sustainable (or at least more swiftly recoverable) means of doing so.
As they ponder the possibilities, the Reds need to be mindful of the recent experiences of the NL-rival Rockies and Diamondbacks — two clubs that have historically occupied similar tax brackets while dealing with the challenges of offensively charged home parks. While the Colorado organization successfully cracked the postseason code for two-straight seasons, its ramped-up free-agent spending — especially, on multiple veteran relievers — didn’t deliver the hoped-for impact. The Rockies have rather swiftly found themselves in a tight payroll spot. Before that, the Snakes slammed the pedal to the floor a bit too hard — the Shelby Miller trade and Zack Greinke signing — and veered right off course.
We’re not suggesting the Reds shouldn’t be excited to fling open a window of contention. But the club needs to measure its moves carefully, especially since it already parted with touted prospect Taylor Trammell in the Bauer swap. Running up payroll for a single season isn’t necessarily a problem, but the club can ill afford multiple, hefty, unproductive contracts like those the Rockies have accumulated. And it will be even more wary of Arizona-like over-exuberance that could cost a rare chance at an extended period of competitiveness.
Precisely how to navigate things will depend upon the opportunities that arise. But the Reds can look to some other National League clubs for guidance. The Braves (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel) and Brewers (Yasmani Grandal) both cashed in with expensive, one-year deals. Had they fallen flat, the clubs would simply have shrugged and moved on. If the Reds are to place a longer-term bet, it probably shouldn’t come in a bidding war on a veteran reliever. Last year’s acquisition and extension of Sonny Gray would be hard to replicate, but spreading the cost over a slightly longer term (as the Rangers have with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor) could give the team a shot at landing a high-quality player at an affordable price.
2. Pursue Upside Up The Middle
It just so happens that the Reds are less-than-settled in the middle infield. Jose Iglesias turned in a solid campaign but is a free agent. Jose Peraza can be tasked with a utility role but not trusted as a regular. The club controls the rights to Freddy Galvis, but he should be a reserve on a contender. Nick Senzel is uber-talented and capable of playing center field or second base, so there’s some flexibility to work with for the Reds. There’s at least a sturdy floor behind the dish, but the defensively renowned Tucker Barnhart doesn’t have much of a bat.
This may be the place for the Reds to strike. On the one hand, the upcoming open market isn’t laden with great possibilities. There are quite a few guys that have at times been solid or better middle infielders, but it’s awfully light on players that appear to be present-talent true regulars. And the center field market is barren. But that also reflects the fact that many teams are already settled in these areas. And there are some intriguing options, including the aforementioned Grandal as well as old friend and bounceback candidate Didi Gregorius. It’s far from clear what’ll be available via trade, but there could be some awfully appealing names dangled. The pie-in-the-sky trade candidates are Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, who can’t be ruled out entirely given their respective organizations’ long-view strategies. It’s much easier to envision Starling Marte coming available, and he’d be quite an interesting target with two cost-controlled seasons left on his deal. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ender Inciarte are among the potentially available players that are somewhat interesting but lower-ceiling possibilities.
Yep, the Reds still need to bear in mind the issues raised in item #1 above. An all-in strategy to go for Semien without an extension in place would likely not be wise. But if the Cincinnati club is going to go past its comfort zone a bit, it ought to be on a player who not only has a sturdy anticipated performance floor but also carries some real star potential. There are relatively few options, so they might need to be explored early. If nothing comes available at a reasonable price, the Reds can pivot to the many affordable options while seeing if anything has fallen through the cracks (Yasiel Puig???) in other areas.
3. Don’t Forget Pitching Depth
Yeah, the Reds got really nice output from their rotation this year and picked up Bauer to help lead the charge in 2020. And they have clear need to improve up the middle and/or with a new outfield bat. But this team could easily get in trouble if it doesn’t allocate some resources to protect the pitching staff, especially with Great American Ball Park as the backdrop.
Here’s the thing to bear in mind when you start thinking about whether and how the Reds can build off of 2019: they are unlikely to enjoy such phenomenal pitching health. Aside from Alex Wood, who returned for seven starts after missing much of the season, the club’s starters were more or less always available when scheduled. And the relief corps received voluminous contributions from its best arms: Amir Garrett made 69 appearances; Robert Stephenson and Raisel Iglesias each cracked sixty innings; Michael Lorenzen threw 83 1/3 frames.
While the Reds might not feel a need to chase improvement in the pitching staff, they ought to be relatively aggressive with spending 2020 cash on depth arms. There are a range of possibilities — the acquisition of a volume swingman, risking a bit of payroll space on a few durable veteran relievers, targeting optionable arms on waiver claims — but the overarching approach must build in some contingencies. Not doing so carries significant risk. Early-season pitching additions can be exceptionally pricey and it’s a long time to wait til the trade deadline when you’re trying to break back into the postseason.
Reviewing Largest Expiring Contracts: Hitters
We’re less than a week removed from analyzing how the five largest expiring contracts on the pitching side have panned out. We’ll do the same here with five big-money hitters who are scheduled to reach free agency in about a month. Notable omission: Red Sox designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez, who’s far from a sure thing to opt out of the three years and $62.5MM that remain on his contract.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals (six years, $100MM, including $2MM buyout for 2020 and $10MM personal services contract that begins when career ends)
Total fWAR: 5.2
Dollar value of contributions (per FanGraphs): $41.7MM
- The Nationals made the decision in 2012 to extend Zimmerman, then a star third baseman, though the contract didn’t kick in until 2014. Aside from a resurgent 2017, Zimmerman hasn’t been particularly valuable since Washington awarded him his lucrative accord. Injuries have been a consistent problem for Zimmerman along the way, including during a 190-plate appearance 2019 in which the 35-year-old mustered a less-than-stellar .257/.321/.415 line with six home runs. Those type of numbers don’t really play anywhere, especially at first base – which has become Zimmerman’s lone position. He hasn’t lined up at the hot corner since the first season of his deal. Once their season ends, the Nats will buy Zimmerman out for $2MM in lieu of bringing him back for an unpalatable $18MM.
Russell Martin, C, Dodgers (five years, $82MM)
Total fWAR: 12.5
Dollar value of contributions: $99.6MM
- As a free agent in November 2014, Martin returned to his native Canada on an expensive contract with the Blue Jays. It worked out beautifully for the Jays during the first few years, but the rebuilding club elected to send Martin and the majority of the money left on his deal to the Dodgers – with whom he began his career – last January. The well-respected 36-year-old has remained a useful player in 2019, though he’s no longer the starting-caliber catcher he has been for most of his career. Martin, who has taken a backseat to Dodgers rookie Will Smith, has hit .220/.337/.330 with six HRs in 249 PA on the offensive side. Defensively, Martin’s still an above-average option, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
Alex Gordon, LF, Royals (four years, $72MM, including $4MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 3.3
Dollar value of contributions: $26.3MM
- Gordon’s contract, which still stands as the largest the Royals have ever given out, hasn’t provided the on-field value KC was hoping for when it re-signed him off a World Series-winning campaign. Gordon remains an immensely respected figure with the franchise, though, and if the soon-to-be 36-year-old decides to continue his career in 2020, it appears the Royals will welcome him back. First things first, the club will decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout, meaning Gordon will have to sign a new, much cheaper contract should he play next season.
Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox (six years, $68MM)
Total fWAR: 17.9
Dollar value of contributions: $141.5MM
- Abreu’s the sole player on this list who’s setting up to make out well on his next deal, thanks in part to a late-season surge. The 32-year-old could even get a qualifying offer before hitting free agency, though he and the White Sox probably hope it doesn’t come to that. Both sides have publicly gushed over one another on several occasions, so it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the White Sox and Abreu shake hands on a fresh deal sometime in the next few weeks. Regardless, the franchise-record contract the White Sox gave Abreu as a Cuban emigree in 2013 has provided tons of surplus value for the team.
Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins (seven years, $60MM, including $1MM buyout for 2020)
Total fWAR: 10.6
Dollar value of contributiions: $83.4MM
- Plenty has changed for Castro since he landed his contract as an up-and-coming player in 2012. For one, he was a shortstop at that point – a player the Cubs thought would be a long-term building block. But Castro was inconsistent from 2013-15, the first three years of his deal, leading the Cubs to trade him to the Yankees. Castro’s so-so production continued in New York from 2016-17, after which the Yankees offloaded him to the Marlins in a salary-dumping move that made it easier for the Bronx Bombers to take on Giancarlo Stanton‘s massive contract. The now-second baseman has essentially been the same player in Miami, a notoriously low-budget outfit that will buy him out for $1MM this offseason instead of exercising its $16MM option over him for 2020. Set to turn 30 in March, Castro will venture to the market on the heels of a 1.3-fWAR season in which he batted .270/.300/.436 and smacked 22 homers over 676 PA.
Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Hitters
Earlier tonight, we took a look at pending free-agent pitchers who are candidates to receive a qualifying offer before the market opens in a few weeks. We’ll do the same here with hitters who are on the cusp of free agency. Players who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Brewers catcher Yasmani Grandal and third baseman Mike Moustakas come to mind), nor can those who were part of in-season trades (Nicholas Castellanos of the Cubs and Yasiel Puig of the Indians, to name two).
Easy Calls:
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: The Nationals reportedly made a recent extension offer to Rendon worth more than $200MM. So, of course they’d take him back for a year at roughly $18MM. However, as one of the best players in the game, Rendon would have an easy time rejecting the QO.
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves: After two straight injury-limited seasons, the Braves took a $23MM gamble on Donaldson last winter. The move has worked out swimmingly. Donaldson will enter the playoffs off a healthy season, one in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR in 659 plate appearances.
Likely:
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals: While Ozuna was not at his best during the regular campaign, he’ll still be one of the most sought-after hitters on the market. The soon-to-be 29-year-old comes with a fairly long track record of above-average production, evidenced by the fact that he will go to free agency on the heels of his fifth season with upward of 2.0 fWAR. He slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 homers and a personal-high 12 steals in 549 PA this season.
Borderline:
- Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, White Sox: As of a couple months ago, Abreu did not look like a legitimate QO candidate. But the 32-year-old ended the season with a flourish en route to an overall line of .284/.330/.503 with 33 homers in 693 trips to the plate. While Abreu and the White Sox have made it known they’d like to work out an extension, the team could fall back on a QO if it’s unable to reach a multiyear agreement with him.
- Didi Gregorius, SS, Yankees: This was not a banner regular season for Gregorius, who missed the first two-plus months of the campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery last fall. After that, Gregorius saw his numbers plummet in comparison to the previous couple seasons, as he hit an uninspiring .238/.276/.441 with 16 home runs in 344 trips to the plate. Fortunately for Gregorius, he’s far and away the highest-upside shortstop due to reach free agency. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees saddle him with a QO.
Opt-Out Possibility:
- J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: If Martinez does become a free agent, he’ll be a slam dunk to receive a QO. The question is whether the offensive standout will take a chance on going back to the market. Martinez, 32, would be abandoning a guaranteed three years and $62.5MM by doing so. As a defensively limited player who doesn’t have age on his side and is coming off a year in which his production plummeted in comparison to 2017-18 (though it was still very good), Martinez would be taking a substantial risk by opting for free agency.
Forecasting The Qualifying Offer Market: Pitchers
Major League Baseball’s postseason begins Tuesday, which means the start of free agency isn’t far away. Before the market opens, there are several teams that will have decisions to make on whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. The qualifying offer, which should be worth upward of $18MM, gives a club the ability to keep a player for an extra year if he accepts it. Otherwise, should he walk as a free agent, the team would receive draft pick compensation for its trouble. Those who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu is among those exempt), nor can players who were part of in-season trades.
We’ll begin this two-part series by looking at soon-to-be free-agent pitchers who may have set themselves up to land QOs before reaching the market…
Easy Calls:
- Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros: As the lone pitcher in this year’s class who has a chance at a $200MM contract (or maybe even a $100MM deal), Cole’s an obvious bet for a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old may well hit the market off a Cy Young-winning season, having amassed a jaw-dropping 326 strikeouts (against 48 walks) with a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP in 212 1/3 innings.
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: Throughout the first half of the season, it didn’t look as if Bumgarner would be in position to get a QO. That wasn’t because of his performance, but on account of the fact that he looked like a clear-cut trade candidate. The Giants ultimately held on to the franchise icon, though, and if he does reach the market in a month, he’s sure to come with a QO attached. After enduring back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, the 30-year-old Bumgarner restored his reputation as a workhorse in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of matching 3.90 ERA/FIP ball with 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9.
- Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets: One of the hardest throwers in the game, Wheeler has bounced back from arm injuries that derailed his career from 2015-17 to regain his status as a coveted hurler over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old just finished a season in which he logged a 3.96 ERA/3.48 FIP with 8.98 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 195 1/3 frames
Borderline:
- Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins: Odorizzi may not look as exciting as the above names on the list, but the 29-year-old recorded compelling results during the regular season for the World Series-contending Twins. Thanks in part to an increase in average fastball velocity (92.9 mph, up from 90-91 during the earlier portion of his career), Odorizzi registered a stingy 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP in 159 innings this year. While Odorizzi’s trouble inducing groundballs continued (his GB rate checked in at just 35 percent), so did his ability to limit home runs (fly balls left the yard at a paltry 8.8 percent against him). Odorizzi also put up 10.08 strikeouts per nine against an even three walks.
- Will Smith, LHP, Giants: Like teammate Bumgarner, Smith was a much talked-about trade candidate whom the Giants decided to keep. Now, if they issue him a QO, they’ll get a draft pick should he depart during the coming months. The 30-year-old Smith was a force this season, notching a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP with 13.22 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9 across 65 1/3 innings. Smith converted 34 of 38 save chances along the way.
- Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs: Injuries prevented Hamels from enjoying another high-inning season, as he totaled just 141 2/3, though he was still effective. But whether Hamels was effective enough to merit a QO is iffy. Hamels, who will turn 36 in December, managed a 3.81 ERA/4.09 FIP with 9.08 K/9, 3.56 BB/9 and a 47.3 groundball percentage. Considering a QO wouldn’t be much of a step down from Hamels’ 2019 salary of $20MM, it’s likely he’ll give strong consideration to accepting it if the Cubs make the offer.
Opt-Out Possibilities:
- Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: It’s up in the air whether Strasburg will become a free agent for the first time, as opting out of his deal would mean leaving a guaranteed four years and $100MM on the table. That’s a risky proposition for a 31-year-old who has dealt with plenty of injuries during his career, though the Nationals will surely hit Strasburg with a QO if he does gamble on going to the market. Strasburg stayed healthy during the regular season and put up a tremendous 3.32 ERA/3.25 FIP with 10.81 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 209 innings – the second-highest total of his career.
- Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: For the majority of the season, a Darvish opt-out would have been unthinkable. Now, even though it still doesn’t seem as if it will happen, it’s not the impossibility it once was. The 33-year-old ended the season on an absolute tear, piling up 12 or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Darvish closed 2019 with a 3.98 ERA/4.18 FIP with a fantastic strikeout/walk ratio (11.54 K/9 against 2.82 BB/9) in 178 2/3 innings. Still, it seems he’d be better off sticking with the four years and $81MM left on his deal. However, if Darvish takes a risk on free agency, he won’t get there without a QO hanging over his head.
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on his contract, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the fireballer opt to test the market again. He’s fresh off an age-31 season in which he pitched to a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP with 13.42 K/9 against 3.95 BB/9 in 57 innings. As has long been the case, Chapman was almost a lock to preserve wins, saving 37 of 42 opportunities.
This Winter’s Most Interesting Free Agent Relievers
I’ve added all of MLB’s projected free agent relievers into a custom FanGraphs leaderboard, which you can check out here. For the full list of 2019-20 MLB Free Agents, click here. Let’s take a closer look!
Average Fastball Velocity
- Aroldis Chapman – 98.4 mph. To become a free agent, Chapman will first have to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract with the Yankees. I believe he’ll do so, unless the Yankees are willing to tack on an additional year. If he reaches the open market, look for Chapman to attempt to get past Wade Davis‘ three-year, $52MM deal signed two years ago. That could be a challenge, since Chapman would likely be saddled with a qualifying offer.
- Trevor Rosenthal – 98.0 mph. Rosenthal was a big prize for the Nationals last November despite missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery. He emerged with his velocity intact, but no semblance of control.
- Hector Rondon – 96.8 mph. Rondon has always been prone to the longball, and this year his strikeout rate took a significant dip.
- Daniel Hudson – 96.1 mph. After signing a two-year free agent deal with the Pirates in December 2016, Hudson was traded to the Rays and then released in March 2018. After a stint with the Dodgers that year, he signed a minor league deal with the Angels before the ’18 season. He failed to make the team, instead signing a Major League deal with Toronto. The Jays sent him to the Nationals at this year’s trade deadline, and he became a key part of the team’s bullpen down the stretch.
- Arodys Vizcaino – 96.0 mph. Vizcaino pitched only four innings for the Braves before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in April. Vizcaino and his salary were sent to Seattle in the May Anthony Swarzak deal. We’ve heard little about Vizcaino’s health since then, but if he’s able to pitch in 2020 he’ll be an interesting free agent.
- Jake Diekman – 95.8 mph. Diekman inked an affordable contract with the Royals in February and was shipped to the A’s near the trade deadline. Walks are a longstanding problem.
- Chris Martin – 95.7 mph. A 21st round draft pick of the Rockies in 2005, Martin battled health issues and failed to get traction in the Majors. Then he spent a couple of years dominating out of the bullpen for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and returned stateside with a two-year deal with the Rangers. Martin was dealt to Atlanta near the trade deadline. He has dominant peripheral stats this year and should be a buzzworthy free agent despite turning 34 next summer.
- Andrew Cashner – 95.4 mph. The Orioles traded Cashner to the Red Sox in July. The veteran made six starts in Boston before moving to the bullpen, where he pitched pretty well aside from a rough final outing on September 28th.
- Nate Jones – 94.9 mph. Jones’ season ended in April due to a flexor mass tear, though he was traded to the Rangers at the deadline. If the club balks at his $3.75MM club option, he’ll hit the open market.
- Drew Pomeranz – 94.5 mph. After struggling mightily in 17 starts for the Giants, Pomeranz strung together four scoreless relief appearances before being dealt to Milwaukee. He’s been truly dominant out of the Brewers’ pen and should be a popular free agent.
Strikeout Percentage – Minimum 20 Innings
- Drew Pomeranz – 47.2%
- Will Smith – 37.4%. Smith is 16 months younger than Chapman, and will likely be on the top of many teams’ free agent reliever boards. The southpaw made the All-Star team for the Giants this year and could seek a four-year contract.
- Aroldis Chapman – 36.2%
- Chris Martin – 30.1%
- Jake Diekman – 29.8%
- Collin McHugh – 28.2%. McHugh has had success as a starter for the Astros, but he was moved to the bullpen in May this year and battled elbow issues. He was shut down for the season a few weeks ago.
- Pedro Strop – 27.5%. Strop struggled through hamstring and neck injuries this year, but prior to that he authored a five-year run of excellence as a late-inning staple for the Cubs. Even in his struggles this year, his groundball rate ranked fourth among relievers.
- Will Harris – 27.1%. Harris, a ninth round draft pick of the Rockies in 2006, joined the Diamondbacks in a 2013 waiver claim and found his first big league success. The Astros were still able to pluck him off waivers again in November 2014, and he’s provided them with a 2.36 ERA in 297 innings over five years. His 1.50 ERA leads free agent relievers.
- Greg Holland – 27.0%. Holland signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks in January, earning the team’s closer job. He lost the gig in late July and was designated for assignment soon after.
- Tyler Clippard – 26.8%. Clippard inked a minor league deal with the Indians in February, made the team in late April, and pitched quite well on the season.
ERA – Minimum 40 Innings
- Will Harris – 1.50
- Aroldis Chapman – 2.21
- Daniel Hudson – 2.38
- Tyler Clippard – 2.38
- Brandon Kintzler – 2.68. Kintzler put together a fine bounceback season for the Cubs, ranking behind only Jared Hughes among relievers with a 54.7% groundball rate.
- Yusmeiro Petit – 2.71. Petit ranked sixth in baseball with 83 relief innings, and third with a walk rate of just 3.3%. He has a reasonable club option that the Athletics could very well exercise, however.
- Will Smith – 2.76
- Hector Rondon – 2.85
- Steve Cishek – 2.95. The sidearmer’s peripheral stats this year weren’t amazing, but he did rank 10th with a 50% groundball rate.
- Craig Stammen – 3.29. Stammen has put together an excellent three-year run out of the Padres’ bullpen, with a 3.06 ERA in 241 1/3 innings. Like Martin and Petit, he demonstrated impeccable control.
Others to watch this winter who had success in 2018 include Dellin Betances, Jeremy Jeffress, Jared Hughes, and David Hernandez.
Three Needs: Toronto Blue Jays
We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Next up: the Blue Jays, who ran up 95 losses but also installed some highly promising core pieces at the MLB level.
[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]
1. Open The Wallet For Starters
The Shapiro/Atkins regime has rarely lured significant starters with hefty promises, due in part to the organization’s need to transition away from some big preexisting commitments. (That task is now all but complete, with only eighteen million more Troy Tulowitzki dollars left to pay down.) To this point, J.A. Happ (3/$36MM) and Marco Estrada (2/$26MM) are the biggest pitching deals the current front office has done.
It’s time for more. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez finally dealt away, there’s a mile-wide opening in the rotation. The Jays may like their long-term outlook for graduating pitching talent, but at present the returning unit would be anchored by Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack. The 2019 Jays relied upon Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Clay Buchholz, and a smattering of other pitchers to get through the season.
Bringing back Matt Shoemaker and/or adding another bounceback candidate is well and good, but if this club is going to make strides it’ll need to spend — perhaps significantly — to bring in multiple quality arms. Avoiding overly lengthy and massive entanglements may still be wise, but the club ought to be willing to take some financial risk with a short-term, high-AAV deal (as in the John Lackey-Cubs signing) and/or mid-length, lower-AAV contract (e.g., the Twins’ deal with Phil Hughes) — depending upon what’s achievable on the market.
2. Deal Ken Giles
This runs somewhat counter to the above point, but the Jays aren’t in a position to point the bus down the road and slam the gas. They still need to meander around and make some additional finds before moving on down the road. Spending on some starters will boost the quality of the team significantly in the near-term and enhance the outlook for the next few seasons. Hanging onto Giles for his final season of arbitration eligibility would be a luxury.
The Jays almost certainly would’ve dealt Giles this summer had it not been for an ill-timed injury episode. He bounced back and finished strong, wrapping up the campaign with a 1.87 ERA and 14.1 K/9 vs. 2.9 BB/9 over 53 innings. That’s high-end relief output. With 23 saves also finding their way onto his ledger, Giles is going to command a pretty big raise on his $6.3MM salary, so he’s not cheap. But think about it from a contenders’ perspective: would you rather take a one-time, ~$10MM shot on a 29-year-old with elite stuff or risk as much or more annually over a multi-year term for one of the best-available free agents? There’s value here for Toronto to cash in and it’ll probably make sense to do so this winter.
3. Take Risks In The Relief Corps
Giles’s own year-to-year volatility is emblematic of a broader phenomenon that is by now well-recognized. It helps boost the reasoning behind dealing him. It also provides cause to believe that the Jays can dig up real talent on the relief corps by taking some shots.
This is hardly a new strategy. The Jays have used it themselves of late, inking veterans David Phelps and Daniel Hudson (since spun off via trade) and acquiring castoffs such as Derek Law, Ryan Dull, and Brock Stewart. So … suggesting this isn’t exactly earth-shattering. But it’s not the right approach for every team and every situation. It does seem to fit perfectly for the Jays. If they move Giles, as suggested above, the team will be left without a single relief pitcher who turned in a clearly productive 2019 season.
There’ll be plenty of internal hurlers who will and should get to compete for jobs in camp, but the Jays can legitimately offer free agents an opportunity to step right into prominent late-inning roles. Splashing some cash on short-term relievers isn’t going to hamstring the club in the long run. Waiver claims and minor-league signings offer other routes to bringing in talent. The Jays can fill out their group for the spring, then make late-camp changes as other clubs make their own tough calls. There’s no real need to focus on stability — something the club will be hoping to establish on the position-player side in 2020 — so much as to grab the most, best talent and let it all play out.
Poll: Grading Manny Machado’s 2019
The long-suffering Padres made a stunning strike in free agency last offseason when they signed former Orioles and Dodgers infielder Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract in late February. For a short period, Machado’s deal stood as the richest in the history of the game. Outfielder Bryce Harper – who, along with Machado – owned baseball-related headlines last winter, surpassed him less than two weeks later with a 13-year, $330MM guarantee from the Phillies. Harper was more good than great in the first year of his accord, though, while Machado probably wasn’t as strong as many expected him to be in his San Diego debut.
In the end, neither Harper nor Machado led their teams to drought-breaking playoff berths in 2019. The Padres won a paltry 70 games and extended their postseason-less streak to a whopping 13 years, though they surely remain hopeful Machado will help them back to relevance in short order. However, for the Padres to maximize their chances of success as they move ahead, they’re going to need the more productive version of Machado to reappear.
To his credit, Machado continued an impressive run of durability in 2019, appearing in at least 156 games for the fifth consecutive season. He also belted upward of 30 home runs (32) for the fifth year in a row. Overall, though, the Machado who was a dominant offensive player as recently as 2018, when he posted a wRC+ of 140 en route to 6.2 fWAR, wasn’t present. Machado’s wRC+ dropped to 108 this year, while his fWAR total fell to 3.0. Both figures are respectable, but they don’t make for superstar-caliber output. The same can obviously be said of the .256/.334/.462 line Machado recorded over 661 plate appearances. And Statcast doesn’t indicate Machado deserved a better fate at the plate, evidenced by his matching .339 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA (a steep drop-off from his .377/.372 in 2018).
On the defensive side, Machado remained a stalwart at third base, where he accounted for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-2.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Per the metrics, Machado was less successful at shortstop (minus-2 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR), but that doesn’t figure to be his long-term spot anyway. He saw 299 innings at the position because of multiple lengthy injured list stints for rookie Fernando Tatis Jr., who, when healthy, showed why he’s one of the most coveted young players in baseball.
Machado, for his part, is still plenty youthful in his own right. He won’t turn 28 until next July, and even though the four-time All-Star wasn’t a force this season, the left side of San Diego’s infield will remain in enviable shape going forward with him and Tatis in the fold. As for this year, though, how would you assess Machado’s performance?
(Poll link for app users)
Grade Manny Machado's 2019 performance
-
C 52% (5,743)
-
B 28% (3,028)
-
D 14% (1,498)
-
F 5% (562)
-
A 2% (171)
Total votes: 11,002
Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019
Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.
While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.
Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.
It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.
The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.
Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.
Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?
(Poll link for app users)
How would you grade Harper's 2019 performance?
-
B 46% (4,852)
-
C 31% (3,288)
-
A 13% (1,373)
-
D 7% (752)
-
F 4% (392)
Total votes: 10,657