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Poll: Shopping Trevor Bauer

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked an interesting question Tuesday morning: Should the Mets entertain trade offers for ace Jacob deGrom? To this point, the majority of voters believe they should at least listen to other teams’ proposals for the 31-year-old right-hander. As great as deGrom is, he’s probably not going to help pitch the woebegone Mets into the playoffs this season.

On the other hand, Indians righty Trevor Bauer may aid in a playoff berth for his team yet again in 2019. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Monday that the Indians are “aggressive listeners” on Bauer as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. There’s wide-ranging interest in Bauer, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Cleveland, which happens to be hosting Tuesday’s All-Star Game, went on a tear to end the season’s first half. Winners of six straight, the Indians are 50-38 – good for the majors’ seventh-highest winning percentage (.568) – and have suddenly made the AL Central race intriguing. For a large portion of the first half, it looked as if the Twins would skate to a division title. Now, though, the Indians sit a manageable 5 1/2 games behind them. The Tribe’s also 1 1/2 games up on the AL’s second wild-card spot and a half-game behind the Rays for the league’s No. 5 seed.

An appreciable amount of the Indians’ success can be attributed to the 28-year-old Bauer, which would make trading him in the next three weeks all the more surprising. No, Bauer hasn’t been the ace-caliber performer he was a year ago. Still, though, Bauer has recorded a 3.61 ERA (granted, with a less inspiring 4.10 FIP) and 10.16 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9 over a major league-leading 132 innings.

It’s hard to believe the Indians would be able to trade Bauer and better themselves for this year, especially in light of the other concerns in their rotation. The Tribe’s starting staff looked like one of the league’s best entering the season. Since then, however, Corey Kluber has struggled and missed a vast amount of the campaign because of a fractured forearm. Mike Clevinger has made just five starts, over which he has been a mixed bag, because of a back injury. Worst of all, the team’s still reeling from the awful news that the excellent Carlos Carrasco, who hasn’t pitched since May 30, is battling leukemia.

The absences of Kluber and Carrasco have left Bauer, Clevinger and stellar young righty Shane Bieber as the lone truly dependable members of the Indians’ rotation. Fill-in Jefry Rodriguez has been on the injured list since June 1 with a strained shoulder, and rookie Zach Plesac has fallen off of late. Meantime, Adam Plutko has posted a below-average ERA (4.95) through 36 1/3 innings, and that outdoes even less shiny peripherals.

All of that said, Cleveland’s in an unenviable position with Bauer, whom it will probably lose soon even if it keeps him through the season. Bauer’s making a somewhat expensive $13MM and only controllable through 2020. If we’re to take his word for it, the offbeat Bauer will be trying to max out on one-year contracts every winter in free agency after that. Therefore, if the Indians weren’t in contention, now would clearly be the time for the Indians to flip Bauer. But the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions are very much in the hunt right now, which could set the stage for an agonizing Bauer decision this month. What do you think they should do?

(Poll link for app users)

What should the Indians do with Trevor Bauer this month?
Listen to offers, but only deal him for a huge return 49.66% (3,913 votes)
Trade him for the best offer 35.10% (2,766 votes)
Keep him and try to win it all 15.24% (1,201 votes)
Total Votes: 7,880

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Disappointing National League Teams

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It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.

With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.

Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers,  have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.

The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.

Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.

The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.

In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?

(Poll link for app users)

Which NL team has been the biggest disappointment so far?
Mets 27.72% (4,894 votes)
Phillies 24.13% (4,260 votes)
Cardinals 20.19% (3,564 votes)
Cubs 17.10% (3,018 votes)
Brewers 6.45% (1,139 votes)
Rockies 3.03% (535 votes)
Other 1.37% (242 votes)
Total Votes: 17,652

What’s Wrong With Robinson Cano?

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We’re on the eve of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, an event second baseman Robinson Cano has received eight invitations to since his career began in 2005. The former Yankee and Mariner is clearly one of the most accomplished second basemen in baseball history. However, in 2019 – his first season as a Met – the 36-year-old Cano has looked nothing like his usual self. His subpar performance played a key part in a miserable first half for the Mets, who’ve endured a chaotic three-plus months and limped to a 40-50 record thus far.

The Cano acquisition was one of many bold offseason moves by first-year Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, the potential Hall of Famer’s former agent. While inexpensive closer Edwin Diaz was likely the real target in the Mets’ return from the Mariners in a blockbuster December trade, it’s obvious there was confidence in Cano on New York’s part. Otherwise, the club wouldn’t have taken on four years and $100MM of Cano to land Diaz. Unfortunately for the Mets, though, neither player has performed to expectations this year.

The sweet-swinging Cano entered the year a lifetime .304/.355/.493 hitter (127 wRC+) with 56.7 fWAR – the sixth-highest total among position players from 2005-18 – as well as 311 home runs in 8,841 plate appearances. He offered similarly excellent production last year, though a fractured right hand and an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension cut his season in half.

Cano’s 2018 ban didn’t scare off the Mets, for whom he has batted a weak .240/.287/.360 (74 wRC+) with a mere four HRs in 258 trips to the plate. Cano has also accounted for a ghastly minus-7 Defensive Runs and a minus-3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating at second, a position he has typically handled with aplomb. To make matters worse, the once-durable Cano has endured a pair of stints on the injured list because of quad problems. During the 65 games Cano has taken the field, he has posted minus-0.5 fWAR – a stark fall from grace for someone who logged 2.9 during his shortened 2018 and has exceeded the 3.0 mark in nine seasons.

If you’re looking for causes for Cano’s awful offensive production this season, start with a power outage. His ISO’s at .120, 69 points lower than the mean he recorded coming into this season. It’s also 60 points worse than the league-average figure and 18th from the bottom among 195 hitters who have amassed at least 250 PA. As FanGraphs’ heatmaps indicate (pre-2019, this year), Cano typically showed a solid amount of power on the inner and outer halves of the strike zone before the current campaign. His power this year has been confined to the middle of the plate, though, and it’s not even as strong there anymore.

Cano’s still making plenty of hard contact – he ranks in the majors’ 83rd percentile in that category and its 77th percentile in average exit velocity, according to Statcast. But he’s pulling the ball less than ever, striking out a good amount more than he has in prior seasons and swinging and missing at a career-worst rate. A more aggressive approach – evidenced by a personal-high swing rate – hasn’t panned out, as shown by a career-low contact percentage.

When Cano has put the bat on the ball, he has only registered a .283 batting average on balls in play – down 36 points compared to 2005-18. There may be some poor fortune involved in that. As mentioned, he has hit the ball hard. There’s also a 28-point gap between his weighted on-base average and his expected wOBA. Still, though, Cano’s xwOBA is an underwhelming .307. That ranks in the majors’ 28th percentile, while his sprint speed (15th), expected slugging percentage (36th) and expected batting average (54th) are also mediocre or much worse. None of that’s conducive to a high BABIP or quality overall production, nor is Cano’s sudden uselessness against same-handed pitchers.

Although the lefty-hitting Cano has been much tougher on right-handed pitchers in his career, he has at least posed a threat versus southpaws. A lifetime .282/.333/.429 hitter (106 wRC+) without the platoon advantage, the 2019 version of Cano’s at a putrid .206/.275/.222 (43 wRC+) against lefties. Another look at FanGraphs’ heatmaps (pre-2019, this season) shows lefties have lived much more belt-high middle or on the outer half of the plate against Cano this year compared to prior seasons. He hasn’t found an answer yet.

Answers in general have been hard to come by for this year’s Mets, one of the season’s greatest letdowns to date. There may not be time for a team-wide turnaround in 2019, but if Cano returns to his pre-Mets form in the season’s second half, at least the club would have that to hang its hat on going into the winter. Right now, though, the acquisition of Cano looks like a massive misstep by Van Wagenen, who may have saddled his team with an albatross contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Marlins’ Sneaky Trade Chip

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Apart from a few scattered signs of promise dotting the South Florida tank, it’s been another year to forget for the Fish. The Marlins currently sit at 32-54, 19.5 games back of the Braves in a tough NL East, a mark that all but assures the club of a decade-long losing-season sweep.

The club’s heaviest assets of yesteryear have all been pawned, leaving an assortment of pre-arb castoffs, up-and-comers, and journeymen hangers-on. Still, it’s baseball, and where playing time awaits, new assets will emerge. The club has steadily rebuilt its once-barren farm, stolen a couple names from regimes with which new club personnel were familiar, and allowed previously cast aside young talent to flourish. Even Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara, the bulk of the oft-pilloried return for Marcell Ozuna, have spread their wings this season, with the former vaulting into top-100 territory and the latter notching the club’s lone ’19 All-Star appearance despite shaky peripherals.

Can the club add to its array of projected big leaguers on the farm?  Many of its top performers this season – Brian Anderson, Pablo Lopez, Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith – figure to comprise the core of Miami’s next contending club, and are thus unlikely to move. Veterans Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, and Sergio Romo have done little to boost their respective values, and high-octane hurler Jose Urena hasn’t take the step forward the team hoped. But one former throw-in from a long-ago deal has remained steady as always.

Enter Miguel Rojas. Acquired in the head-scratching deal that sent Andrew Heaney, Kiké Hernandez, and Austin Barnes to LA in exchange for Dee Gordon and an aging Dan Haren, Rojas was used sparingly in his first couple seasons with the club. He opened eyes with a 1.4 fWAR performance in just 90 games in 2017, pairing strong contact ability with above-average defense at multiple positions. The gutting of 2018’s roster left near-full-time opportunity at shortstop for Rojas, a position at which he sparkled defensively, notching 10 defensive runs saved in nearly half the innings of NL-leader Nick Ahmed, who posted 21, and a UZR/150 that ranked among MLB’s best.

The 30-year-old Venezuelan has vaulted up a notch this season, pacing the big leagues in both UZR/150 and the range component of the stat, with a striking 13 Defensive Runs Saved to boot. With Andrelton Simmons on the shelf, and Brandon Crawford looking a shell of his former shelf all across the diamond, Rojas has staked a legitimate claim to the league’s best defender at the most difficult defensive position on the field.

His bat, too, has taken off: his 97 wRC+ has the one-time utility man on pace for nearly 3.0 fWAR this season, an easily above-average mark, and his second such offensive campaign in three years. His hard-hit rate has jumped to a career-high 35.5%, and the righty’s chasing pitches outside the zone at a career-low pace. Rojas’ 12.8 K% (paired with a respectable 7.8% BB) ranks among the league’s lowest.

In short, he’s as solid as they come. But where will he fit? Unlike other positions – catcher, second base – shortstop is rife with talent, and nearly every contender has a good one. Milwaukee, who’s seen Orlando Arcia reprise his poor performance from a season ago, could be a fit, as might Tampa or perhaps Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. Washington could again shift its shortstop, Trea Turner, around the diamond – he’s been awful defensively in limited action so far this season – as could the Cubs, whose second-base hole might simply be plugged by the displacement of one-time incumbent Javier Baez.

Given the propensity of new-wave front offices to acquire pieces without a clear fit, it stands to reason that Rojas’ market may be wider than it first appears. He’s arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2020, so Miami’s return won’t be negligible; the one-time throw-in may soon find himself a centerpiece.

Is Kyle Schwarber Better Than This?

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It’s well known that Cubs brass has long revered Kyle Schwarber, the fourth overall pick in 2014 whom the team refused to part with in trades during ensuing seasons. The big-bodied Schwarber was a catcher in his younger days, though there was much skepticism the ex-Indiana Hoosier would carve out a future in the majors behind the plate. Indeed, despite having slimmed down in recent years, Schwarber hasn’t donned the tools of ignorance at all since 2017.

With no DH spot available in the National League and Anthony Rizzo holding down first base, Schwarber has settled in as the Cubs’ left fielder. Reviews have been mixed on Schwarber, who has simultaneously accounted for minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-14.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through upward of 2,700 innings in left. The fact that Schwarber hasn’t been unplayable in the outfield is a clear positive, but his left-handed bat will always be his carrying tool. However, despite the hype that has surrounded Schwarber in his career, he hasn’t emerged as a great major league hitter yet.

Schwarber was a tremendous college and minor league offensive performer who immediately made his mark in Chicago as a rookie in 2015, when he slashed .246/.355/.487 (131 wRC+) with 16 home runs across 273 plate appearances. In light of his stellar introduction, expectations were Schwarber would further cement himself as a linchpin of the Cubs’ lineup in 2016. Instead, though, he suffered a torn left ACL and LCL in April of that year and wound up missing all but two regular-season games. To his immense credit, Schwarber became something of a Chicago folk hero in rehabbing quickly enough to return for the World Series that autumn. Schwarber put the exclamation point on his Fall Classic comeback by slashing a fantastic .412/.500/.471 in 20 PA against the Indians to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years.

The good times were supposed to keep rolling for Schwarber, but his output has been underwhelming since his triumphant return. Dating back to 2017, Schwarber has batted .226/.333/.466 with 74 homers, a 107 wRC+ and 5.6 fWAR over 1,340 trips to the plate. The 26-year-old has essentially been a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) through 344 PA this season, making him an unspectacular part of a team whose weeks-long slump has led to frustration from its higher-ups.

Here’s some much-needed positive news for the Cubs, though: Better days may be ahead for Schwarber. His hard-hit percentage ranks second among all qualified hitters who have totaled at least 100 batted ball-events this year, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls checks in at 13th. Among batters who have accumulated at least 300 PA in 2019, FanGraphs credits Schwarber with the game’s seventh-lowest soft-contact percentage (10.8). Adding to the encouragement, Schwarber has increased his flies/liners while decreasing his grounders compared to 2018. He’s also making more contact while swinging and missing less than he did a year ago. All of that has helped Schwarber maintain his prodigious power despite so-so overall results this year, as he has chipped in 18 HRs with a .234 ISO.

With the above considered, it’s no surprise Schwarber’s expected weighted on-base average (.358) far outdoes his real wOBA (.331). However, just because Schwarber’s hitting the ball hard doesn’t automatically mean his production will positively regress. It doesn’t appear the strikeout-prone Schwarber is a sure bet to ever complement his power with a high batting average or a lofty BABIP (the latter’s at .269 this year, right in line with his career mark), so he has to compensate by drawing walks. Schwarber collected free passes a personal-best 15.3 percent of the time in 2018, assisting in a career-high .356 OBP and helping cancel out a .238 average. But his walk percentage has dropped to 12.5 – not far from his lifetime figure – this year. That’s still easily above average, but the 3 percent fall has limited Schwarber to a .326 OBP that’s barely better than the .322 MLB mean.

Average offensive numbers aren’t going to suffice for Schwarber, who Baseball America wrote in 2015 had a chance to become a “.300-hitting, 30-homer” force in the majors. While Schwarber’s power potential has indeed transferred to the bigs since then, the Cubs continue waiting for the rest of the offensive package to arrive.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher

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The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.

Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.

Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.

While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.

Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Less-Talked-About Giants Trade Chip

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As the baseball world collectively waits for trade season to begin in earnest, the Giants may find more eyes on their team than at any other point in 2019. Entering the season, no one gave the club a chance in a stacked NL West division, and at 39-47, the team is predictably all but out of playoff contention. San Francisco may have the most appealing rental starter on the market in Madison Bumgarner and the most appealing rental reliever in Will Smith. Fellow left-hander Tony Watson is likely to be moved as well, and even Pablo Sandoval has hit his way back onto the rumor circuit.

Sam Dyson | Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports

For all the attention placed on that group, righty Sam Dyson is nearly every bit as interesting. That’s not to say that Dyson is an under-the-radar trade chip, as even casual onlookers are well aware that the rebuilding Giants have a wealth of interesting bullpen arms to market this month. But the extent of Dyson’s appeal is somewhat overshadowed by the bigger names the Giants have to sell.

Dyson, who turned 31 back in May, is enjoying his best season since 2016 by virtually any measure and is arguably in the midst of the best year of his career. The ground-ball specialist has pitched to a 2.48 ERA with averages of 7.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and 0.68 HR/9. His sinker’s average velocity is down from its 96.5 mph peak but still sits at a comfortable 94.1 mph. And while Dyson’s 57.3 percent grounder rate is somehow the lowest of his career, it’s also still well above the league average of 43 percent among relievers.

The control Dyson has demonstrated in 2019 is not only the best of his career — it’s among the best in baseball. Only eight qualified relievers have walked a smaller percentage of opponents than the 3.9 percent to whom Dyson has issued a free pass. He’s appeared in 38 games this season, totaling 40 innings of work, and has not issued multiple walks in a single outing. Dyson’s 63.6 percent first-pitch strike rate is a career-high.

Hard contact has also been difficult to come by for opponents of Dyson, as they’ve averaged an exit velocity of just 85.5 mph against him — a mark that puts Dyson in the 94th percentile of MLB pitchers. Right-handed opponents have mustered an awful .202/.237/.281 line against Dyson in 2019, while lefties have only managed a .226/.293/.377 output. Playing his games at San Francisco’s Oracle Park as opposed to Arlington’s Globe Life Park surely has helped Dyson limit homers, but his stinginess on round-trippers is nothing new (career 0.69 HR/9). It’s also worth noting that balls in the air against Dyson in 2019 have averaged 91.2 mph off the bat — a decline even from his strong 2016 campaign (93.2 mph) and a huge departure from the outlier 2017 campaign that saw Texas give up on him (96 mph).

That his 2017 season was an outlier should also be a point of emphasis. It’s tough for a player to shake the label of being traded in a salary dump as Dyson was in ’17. However, the righty notched 70 1/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball last season with a slightly lower strikeout rate, a higher walk rate and a higher ground-ball rate. More broadly looking at Dyson’s track record dating back to 2014, the only point at which he’s pitched particularly poorly was that 17-game stretch that prompted the Rangers to unload him. Dyson finished that year with an ERA just over 6.00, but he’s checked in with a 2.70 or better in the other five seasons dating back to 2014 (this year included).

Unlike teammates Smith and Watson, Dyson is under club control through the 2020 season. (Well, Watson technically is as well, though he’s unlikely to exercise the player option on his uniquely structured contract.) Dyson is being paid a $5MM salary this season, and while that means he’ll have a relatively notable salary next year after an arbitration raise, even a jump into the $6-7MM range isn’t exorbitant. For a team in need of bullpen help, buying a reasonably affordable second season of Dyson likely sounds better than rolling the dice on a multi-year deal for free-agent relievers — particularly when looking at how poorly this past winter’s group of multi-year contracts for relievers has panned out.

At the same time, there’s little reason for the Giants to hang onto Dyson at that price point when they’re in the nascent stages of their rebuild. And, he’ll have more value at this year’s deadline than he would in the offseason. There’s an argument to be made that the Giants should listen on all of their interesting relievers — even more controllable arms like Reyes Moronta and Trevor Gott — but neither will even be arbitration-eligible next year. Dyson, like Smith and Watson, should be a lock to be moved in the next 26 days barring some kind of injury.

The Giants find themselves in this rebuilding state in large part because of some missteps by the former front-office regime, but that group’s acquisition of Dyson (in exchange for 26-year-old Hunter Cole, who has yet to see the Majors) proved to be a steal. Beyond the 148 innings of strong relief work Dyson has given the Giants since that trade, he now gives first-year president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his staff a player who ought to net far more than what the Giants gave up to acquire him.

Progress Report: The Eric Hosmer Contract

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In February 2018, with the Padres amid a rebuild and attempting to move closer to relevance, the club made the polarizing decision to sign free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer to a franchise-record contract. Although there seemingly wasn’t a wide market for the longtime Royal’s services, the Padres gave Hosmer an eight-year deal worth $144MM.

Hosmer stood out at times in Kansas City, including during a World Series-winning campaign in 2015, but fell on his face in other seasons. As a result of Hosmer’s inconsistency as a Royal, there were plenty who either loved or hated the Padres’ choice to hand him a headline-stealing payday. Those who opposed it gained the upper hand in its first year, in which Hosmer hit a meek .253/.322/.398 in 677 plate appearances. He was a below-average offensive player by wRC+ (95) and less than a replacement-level performer by fWAR (minus-0.1).

Considering the beginning of a long-term contract is when a player is supposed to be providing the most value, Hosmer’s woeful 2018 production was downright alarming. The Padres needed a rebound from Hosmer coming into this season, and while he has gotten better, the respected veteran still hasn’t given the Friars much bang for their buck on the field.

The best thing you can say about Hosmer the Padre is that he has been available more than most players. He piled up 157 appearances a year ago and has participated in 86 of the Padres’ 87 games in 2019. Along the way this season, Hosmer has slashed .293/.343/.45 with 13 home runs – just five fewer than last year – over 364 trips to the plate. He has also upped his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA from matching .310s last season to .341/.334 this year. Likewise, the 29-year-old’s 111 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR count as vast improvements over what he offered in those categories in 2018. They’re still far from great, however. In fact, the average major league first baseman has posted a 110 wRC+ this season. Of course, the average major league first baseman isn’t on a $20MM salary this year or locked into a big-money deal into his 30s.

While FanGraphs credits Hosmer with making more hard contact and less soft contact than he did last season, he continues to amass too many ground balls and too few fly balls. The typical batter hits grounders at an approximately 43 percent rate and flies 36 percent of the time. Hosmer’s at 57.3 and 21.0 in those areas in 2019. It’s hard to muster much in the power department with that combination, as Hosmer’s lifetime ISO (.155) and current ISO (.164) help prove. And Hosmer’s one of the majors’ slowest runners, making his grounder-heavy skill set even less conducive to success. The ongoing grounder overload hasn’t enabled Hosmer to take advantage of a 2019 hard-hit rate which Statcast places in the majors’ 87th percentile or an exit velocity that betters 71 percent of his peers.

Because Hosmer’s also still not walking much (6.9 percent this year, 8.2 lifetime), he continues to rely on a high batting average on balls in play to help buoy his numbers. That has paid off at times – including this season to an extent, as Hosmer’s .337 BABIP represents a 35-point increase over 2018’s. However, during seasons in which Hosmer’s BABIP has sat around average or worse, his production has typically fallen well short of expectations.

In further inauspicious news, the lefty-hitting Hosmer’s amid his second straight abysmal season against same-handed pitchers. Southpaws limited him to an unsightly .179/.240/.287 line in his first year as a Padre. Hosmer has bumped that slash to .250/.320/.324 this season, yet wRC+ indicates it’s still 24 percent worse than average. Struggles versus lefties aren’t anything new for Hosmer, who has stumbled to a .668 OPS and an 81 wRC+ against them over the course of his career.

A season and a half into his contract, the Padres’ choice to pay a premium for an inconsistent platoon first baseman continues to look like a head-scratcher. That’s all the more true when considering they already had well-compensated first baseman Wil Myers on the roster. Myers is now limited to the outfield, where he hasn’t garnered consistent playing time of late because he’s an ill fit in center and the Padres have superior hitters Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes manning the corners.

This has been a positive overall season for long-suffering San Diego, which is hovering around .500 and finds itself in playoff contention. The team still hasn’t benefited as hoped from the Hosmer signing, though, and there aren’t clear signs that’s going to change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cool Papa Bell

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No, this isn’t a piece about baseball legend Cool Papa Bell. Try as I might, I couldn’t come up with a catchier title in regards to Pirates first baseman Josh Bell, who has evolved into one of baseball’s premier offensive players in 2019. It’s been something of an unexpected development considering the unspectacular start Bell’s career got off to during his first couple years in the majors.

A second-round pick in 2011, Bell soared up prospect lists in his days in the Pirates’ farm system, ranking as Baseball America’s 38th-best farmhand when the club promoted him to the bigs. Bell first got the call on July 8, 2016, almost exactly three years ago, and has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh since then. Through 2018, though, Bell looked like somewhat of a light hitter relative to his position, not the franchise-caliber masher he has become. While Bell did smack 26 home runs in 2017, he nonetheless entered this year a career .260/.348/.436 batter over 1,355 plate appearances, giving him a 110 wRC+ and a 1.4 fWAR which made him more closely resemble, say, James Loney than Freddie Freeman.

This season has been a completely different story for Bell, who, with 26 homers across 374 PA, has already tied his career high en route to his first All-Star nod. With a .306/.377/.654 line, Bell ranks fourth in the game in wRC+ (158), trailing a decent trio of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout and Christian Yelich. The 26-year-old Bell has already racked up 2.7 fWAR, almost doubling the mark he posted during his entire career before 2019. Plus, while Bell recorded a mediocre .177 ISO from 2016-18, that number has soared to .349 this year, putting him fourth in the league.

So why the sudden epiphany? For starters, Bell’s pulling the ball more than ever and going opposite field less than at any previous point, all while hitting more fly balls and fewer grounders. That’s an easy recipe for more pop, as is his decrease in infield fly balls. Bell’s pop-up rate stood at upward of 9 percent in each of his prior seasons, but it has plummeted to just over 2 percent this season.

Unsurprisingly, Bell has hit the ball much harder in general. His hard-contact rate has risen by an eye-popping 15 percent since last season, while his soft-hit rate has fallen by almost 10 percent, according to FanGraphs. Only 11 players have outdone Bell in hard-hit percentage. With that in mind, it’s not exactly stunning he ranks near the top of the majors in weighted-on base average (.421) and expected wOBA (.404), per Statcast, which places the switch hitter in elite company in most of its offensive metrics. Bell’s expected batting average (91st percentile), barrel percentage (95th), xwOBA (96th), expected slugging percentage (96th), hard-contact rate (97th) and exit velocity (98th) are all magnificent.

Unlike 2018, when Bell logged a .284 wOBA/.257 xwOBA against breaking pitches, those offerings haven’t fooled him this year. If you’re going to throw a breaking pitch to Bell nowadays, there’s a good chance you’re going to pay. He has hit a ridiculous .455/.460 off them this season, having shown power against them in several quadrants of the strike zone, which the drastic change in FanGraphs’ heatmaps shows between  2018 and ’19.

It’s clear Bell has benefited from a more aggressive approach. He’s swinging at way more pitches, including out of the zone, which has led to less contact, an all-time worst swinging-strike percentage and more strikeouts. But when you’re producing like this, it doesn’t matter. He’s still walking and striking out at better clips than most hitters, evidenced by a K/BB ratio which ranks 50th among 158 qualified batters.

The Pirates have been waiting for a new face of the franchise to rise up since they traded away organizational icon Andrew McCutchen prior to the 2018 campaign. It appears they’ve found his successor in Bell, though the newly established slugger’s days of playing for a relative pittance are nearing an end. Now in his last season on a league-minimum salary, Bell’s on the verge of cashing in during the arbitration process. Considering his 2019 breakout, though, that’s a high-class problem for Pittsburgh.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Better Rental: Madison Bumgarner Or Zack Wheeler?

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It’s fair to say Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner and Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler are the two best soon-to-be free-agent starters who could realistically change teams before the July 31 trade deadline. Neither the Giants nor Mets are in contention, and there haven’t been any rumors about extension talks between the teams and the hurlers. Furthermore, both clubs’ farm systems are lacking, so trading Bumgarner and Wheeler could help the organizations better themselves in that area. The question is: Who’s the more desirable of the pair?

The more impressive track record belongs to Bumgarner, who will turn 30 the day after the deadline. He’s a three-time World Series champion and one of the most successful postseason pitchers in recent memory, which could matter to starter-needy clubs that have their sights set on fall baseball. Bumgarner owns a phenomenal 2.11 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 102 1/3 playoff innings, though he hasn’t pitched that deep into the season since 2016. More recently, Bumgarner has morphed into a mid-rotation starter, no longer the front-line stalwart he was when he was helping the Giants to championships.

This season, Bumgarner has pitched to a 4.02 ERA/3.96 FIP with a 35.8 percent groundball rate over 109 2/3 innings, and has seen hitters put up a .332 expected weighted on-base average against his offerings versus a .311 real wOBA. Those are respectable numbers, but they’re not those of a rotation savior. At the same time, though, Bumgarner has produced a K/BB ratio befitting of an ace. With 9.27 K/9 against 1.97 BB/9, he stands 17th in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.71). The fact that Bumgarner has recorded career-best chase and first-pitch strike rates has helped him in that regard.

Wheeler’s also 29, yet he doesn’t have a single inning of playoff experience. Still, there’s a case to be made that he’s a better asset than Bumgarner. This much is clear: On a $5.975MM salary against Bumgarner’s $12MM, Wheeler is noticeably less expensive. And while Bumgarner’s not going to intimidate anyone with his low-90s velocity, Wheeler attacks hitters with one of the hardest fastballs in the game – a pitch that averages upward of 97.2 mph. Wheeler has used his velo to register 9.71 K/9 versus 2.53 BB/9 this year, yet he hasn’t had an easy time preventing runs. Wheeler’s ERA is at a lofty 4.42 through 114 frames, but his FIP’s a much more encouraging 3.63, and he has induced grounders at roughly a 45 percent clip. He’s also outdoing Bumgarner in the wOBA/xwOBA department (.295/.302).

Undoubtedly, Bumgarner or Wheeler is a question playoff-caliber teams seeking starters have asked themselves in recent weeks, and it’s one they’ll continue debating leading up to the deadline. With both pitchers likely on the move in the next four weeks, they may end up having a large amount of say in this year’s playoff race and perhaps the postseason itself. Which of the two would you rather have?

(Poll link for app users)

Which starter would you rather acquire?
Madison Bumgarner 60.83% (5,151 votes)
Zack Wheeler 39.17% (3,317 votes)
Total Votes: 8,468
Show all

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