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MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By Steve Adams | March 19, 2019 at 7:41am CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The fruits of a relatively short rebuilding effort in Milwaukee manifested with an NL Central division title, a NLCS run against the Dodgers and dramatic increase in expectations after years of mediocrity.

Major League Signings

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: One year, $18.25MM (includes $2MM buyout on 2020 mutual option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B: One year, $10MM
  • Cory Spangenberg, 2B/3B/OF: One year, $1.2MM (split Major League contract)
  • Jake Petricka, RHP: $900K (split Major League contract)
  • Total spend: $30.35MM

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired RHPs Bobby Wahl, RHP Adam Hill and 2B Felix Valerio from the Mets in exchange for OF Keon Broxton
  • Acquired LHP Alex Claudio from the Rangers in exchange for Competitive Balance Round A draft pick
  • Acquired OF Ben Gamel, RHP Noah Zavolas from Mariners in exchange for OF Domingo Santana

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Burch Smith, Jay Jackson, Deolis Guerra, Tuffy Gosewisch, Angel Perdomo

Notable Losses

  • Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Joakim Soria, Curtis Granderson, Jonathan Schoop, Jordan Lyles, Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings

[Milwaukee Brewers depth chart | Milwaukee Brewers payroll outlook]

Needs Addressed

Entering the offseason with a pair of catchers who combined to hit .246/.296/.379, the Brewers had a clear need behind the plate. While Manny Pina and Erik Kratz gave the Brewers quality defense behind the dish in terms of framing and controlling the running game, their lack of offense was a clear negative. Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff clearly agreed, and while they didn’t feel strongly enough to make a significant play for a free agent on a multi-year contract, they deftly swooped in and secured Yasmani Grandal, the open market’s top catcher, on a one-year deal worth $18.25MM after Grandal apparently didn’t find any multi-year offers that were to his liking (despite numerous reports indicating that he received substantial multi-year offers from the likes of the Mets, Twins and White Sox).

Maybe Grandal was stung a bit by recency bias — his postseason showing was nightmarish on both sides of the ball — but the 30-year-old finished second among MLB catchers in total home runs and led all MLB backstops (min. 300 PAs) with a hefty .225 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Salvador Perez is the only catcher with more home runs than Grandal over the past four seasons, and among qualified backstops, only Gary Sanchez and Robinson Chirinos have higher ISO marks. That the Brewers were able to add one of baseball’s most powerful catchers — one who consistently rates as a premium framer with a solid caught-stealing rate — on a one-year pact is a feather in an already plumage-laden cap for the front office.

Entering the 2018 season, much was made of Milwaukee’s glut of outfielders, and that relative logjam came into greater focus this winter with both Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton out of options and clearly lacking a path to playing time with the Brewers. Broxton and Santana were turned into a potential bullpen piece — Bobby Wahl, though he’s since unfortunately suffered an ACL tear — and another interesting outfielder with a minor league option remaining: Ben Gamel. Stearns & Co. further bolstered the ’pen by swapping their Competitive Balance draft pick for lefty Alex Claudio. Unlike many other trades in which teams have shipped off those rare, tradeable picks for marginal assets or even pure salary relief, the Brewers landed a useful left-handed arm who’ll make their club better in 2019 and beyond, as Claudio can be controlled through 2021.

In need of infield help after spending an otherwise successful season jamming square pegs into second-base, third-base and shortstop-shaped holes, the Brewers did sign a pair of infielders in the form of a returning Mike Moustakas and former Padre Cory Spangenberg. The return of “Moose” will at the very least bolster an already formidable Milwaukee lineup by adding a bat that’s swatted 66 long balls over the past 300 games.

Questions Remaining

The Moustakas addition seems like an apt place to transition from the “needs addressed” to the “questions remaining” section, given that it’s anyone’s guess as to how Moustakas will adjust to his new role as a second baseman. He’s never played the position in the past but is getting his feet wet this spring in preparation for serving as Milwaukee’s everyday option at the position. It’s an unorthodox move but one that is backed by at least some logic. Milwaukee is typically aggressive in its infield shifting. Moustakas has played on the right side of the infield in the past when shifting there against left-handed hitters as a third baseman. The position may not ultimately feel *that* foreign to him.

Some may argue that the Brewers swooped in on Moustakas in a similar manner to the way they did Grandal. But Grandal was a more unique asset, whereas the Brewers paid a fairly sizable (but still reasonable) sum to once again play a veteran infielder out of position. For the same $10MM they promised to Moustakas, the Brewers could’ve signed Brian Dozier or brought Jonathan Schoop back aboard to play his natural position. Even if the Brewers weren’t keen on a bounceback candidate at the position, Moustakas’ $10MM guarantee is the same as Jed Lowrie’s annual rate on his two-year pact with the Mets. It’s only slightly shy of the $12MM annual value on DJ LeMahieu’s two-year deal with the Yankees. Even at his more natural third base, Moustakas would only be projected to be worth two or two-and-a-half wins above replacement. For this price, it seems like the Brewers could’ve gotten a natural second baseman without incurring much long-term risk.

For the second straight spring, however, the largest question many have regarding Milwaukee is whether the team should have added more starting pitching. Jhoulys Chacin, last winter’s lone big league signing, is slated to take the ball on Opening Day. But the Brewers didn’t add a starter this winter after bidding adieu to both Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, instead banking on the return of a healthy Jimmy Nelson and doubling down in their faith in young righties Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta — each of whom tallied significant innings in the Majors last season. That group, paired with holdovers Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Junior Guerra, will be tasked with rounding out the starting staff and at least getting the Brewers to the trade deadline.

It’s a lot to ask from a unit full of pitchers that either have lacked consistency (Anderson, Davies, Guerra) or lack MLB starting experience (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta), but the group undeniably features plenty of talent. A healthy Nelson in 2017 was one of the National League’s most valuable starting pitchers. Burnes and Woodruff were well-regarded as prospects and both impressed in bullpen roles last season, with Burnes in particular showing off-the-charts spin on his fastball and curveball. Peralta was serviceable in 14 starts last season with secondary stats that were more impressive than his pedestrian 4.25 ERA.

It’s technically possible that the Brewers could make one final late-offseason splash, bringing in Dallas Keuchel or striking some kind of surprise trade, but the Brewers have continually showed faith in their internal arms by eschewing significant free-agent splashes over the past two offseasons. Owner Mark Attanasio would need to further push up an already club-record $128MM Opening Day payroll projection, and any new free-agent addition would need time to get up to speed and get into game-ready shape. Frankly, another addition doesn’t seem all that likely, but if Milwaukee’s starting staff is in tatters early in the year, there’ll be no shortage of people wondering why the reigning division champs opted to forgo a more stable addition.

Looking beyond the rotation, there’s even a bit of uncertainty within the team’s vaunted bullpen. Specifically, Jeremy Jeffress is battling a shoulder issue that has limited him substantially in Spring Training. Jeffress was a major part of getting the Brewers to the postseason in ’18, forming a dominant trio with Josh Hader and Corey Knebel. Those two should still be a powerful one-two punch late in games, but any relief corps is going to look a bit less imposing when you subtract a reliever who posted a 1.29 ERA in 76 2/3 regular-season innings.

2019 Season Outlook

Rotation questions aside, the Brewers will boast a formidable lineup with  quality overall defense (particularly from Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw and Orlando Arcia) and a bullpen featuring two of the game’s top strikeout specialists. A return to health for Nelson and even one of the aforementioned young arms cementing himself as a viable mid-rotation starter would quiet a substantial portion of fan concern regarding the pitching staff, and if two members of that youth movement step up, the Brewers will look wise to have shown restraint.

A much-improved Reds roster, the Cardinals’ acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt and potential returns to health for Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish in Chicago should make the NL Central an even tougher division for all five clubs in 2019. But the Brewers could be getting a star of their own back (Nelson), and they’ll still head into the upcoming season not just with an eye on defending the division crown but with legitimate World Series aspirations. They’ll quite likely need another acquisition or two at baseball’s now-single trade deadline on July 31 — there won’t be another run of August acquisitions for Stearns & Co. — but I’ll be surprised if Milwaukee isn’t firmly in the postseason hunt once again this summer.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason? (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

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2018-19 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

By Connor Byrne | March 17, 2019 at 2:58pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Even though they’re in a rebuild, the Rangers are entering the 2019 season off an active winter. The club welcomed a new manager (former Dodgers third base coach Chris Woodward) and a bevy of free agents, lost the iconic Adrian Beltre to retirement and put an end to the Jurickson Profar era.

Major League Signings

  • Lance Lynn, RHP: three years, $30MM
  • Jesse Chavez, RP: two years, $8MM
  • Jeff Mathis, C: two years, $6.25MM
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, INF: one year, $3.25MM
  • Shawn Kelley, RP: one year, $2.75MM
  • Shelby Miller, RHP: one year, $2MM
  • Zach McAllister, RP: one year, $1MM
  • Total spend: $53.25MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired INF Eli White, LHPs Brock Burke and Kyle Bird, RHP Yoel Espinal and $750K in international bonus allotments in a three-team trade that sent INF Jurickson Profar to the Athletics and RHP Rollie Lacy to the Rays
  • Acquired LHP Drew Smyly and a player to be named later from the Cubs for a player to be named later
  • Acquired 2019 competitive balance pick from the Brewers for RP Alex Claudio
  • Acquired 3B Patrick Wisdom from the Cardinals for UTIL Drew Robinson
  • Acquired OF Zack Granite from the Twins for RHP Xavier Moore and cash considerations
  • Acquired international bonus allotments (amount unreported) from the Orioles for RHP David Lebron
  • Acquired the White Sox’s Rule 5 pick, RHP Jordan Romano, for cash considerations
  • Selected Chris Ellis from the Cardinals in the Rule 5 Draft, then traded him to the Royals for cash considerations
  • Claimed RHP Luke Farrell off waivers from the Cubs
  • Claimed INF Carlos Asuaje from the Padres, then sold his rights to the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization
  • Claimed INF Jack Reinheimer from the Cubs, then lost him on waivers to the Orioles
  • Claimed OF John Andreoli from the Mariners, then lost him on waivers to the Giants

Extensions

  • Jose Leclerc, RP: four years, $14.75MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe, Matt Davidson, Jason Hammel, Ben Revere, Adam Moore, David Carpenter, Jett Bandy, Matt Bush, Jeanmar Gomez, Ricardo Rodriguez, Danny Santana, Rafael Montero, Zac Curtis, Chase d’Arnaud, Michael Tonkin, Adrian Sampson, Jack Leathersich, Ariel Hernandez, Nolan Fontana

Notable Losses

  • Beltre, Profar, Claudio, Robinson, Robinson Chirinos, Doug Fister, Matt Moore, Tony Barnette, Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez Ryan Rua, Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Eddie Butler

[Texas Rangers Depth Chart | Texas Rangers Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

Few teams’ rotations were worse off in 2018 than the Rangers’, whose starters posted a bloated 5.37 ERA with a similarly horrid 5.18 FIP. Among their regular rotation possibilities, only Mike Minor and Cole Hamels, the latter of whom went to the Cubs in a midseason trade, offered passable production. Consequently, the rotation was an area of major emphasis for general manager Jon Daniels during the offseason.

Daniels swung yet another deal with the Cubs, landing southpaw Drew Smyly in a November trade that amounted to a cost-cutting move for Chicago, and then signed fellow veteran starters Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller in free agency. Smyly, Lynn and Miller are now penciled into the Rangers’ season-opening rotation alongside Minor, who frequented trade rumors during the winter but ultimately stayed put, and Edinson Volquez. It’s not the most inspiring group on paper, especially considering Smyly, Miller and Volquez are each coming off back-to-back injury-wrecked years; still, it does look like a clear improvement over last year’s rotation – one that received flat-out awful numbers from almost every member of an eight-man crew consisting of Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, Doug Fister, Matt Moore, Ariel Jurado, Yohander Mendez and Drew Hutchison. Of that octet, which combined for 99 starts in 2018, only Jurado and Mendez are still members of the Texas organization.

When enemy offenses chased Rangers starters from games last season, they turned to a mediocre bullpen that got worse when the team dealt Keone Kela, Jake Diekman and Jesse Chavez at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Rangers followed those deals by trading yet another key reliever, Alex Claudio, in December, acquiring a top 40 draft pick from the Brewers for his three years of control. It’s anyone’s guess whether that selection will bear fruit for the Rangers, but it’s a worthwhile return for what the non-contending team believed was a superfluous reliever.

To help make up for their departed relievers, the Rangers are turning back to the 35-year-old Chavez, whom they reunited with in free agency on a reasonable contract. Chavez was terrific last season, though more so with the Cubs than the Rangers, while fellow veteran addition/inexpensive signing Shawn Kelley logged quality numbers between Washington and Oakland. The same wasn’t true for the Rangers’ other major league bullpen signing, Zach McAllister, who bombed in Cleveland and Detroit. But the hard-throwing McAllister entered 2018 with a nice track record, and on a $1MM salary, he’s worth a try for Texas. The Rangers’ hope is that Chavez, Kelley and McAllister will help form a capable bridge to lights-out closer Jose Leclerc, who tore through opposing lineups during a jaw-dropping 2018 en route to a team-friendly contract extension.

Leclerc and the other holdovers from the Rangers’ 2018 staff are adjusting to a new regular catcher, free-agent signee Jeff Mathis, who’s succeeding Robinson Chirinos. The swap may be a boon to the Rangers’ pitchers, as Chirinos – whom the club cut in November – is nowhere near Mathis’ level defensively. Whereas Chirinos has been a minus defender throughout his career, particularly in 2018, Mathis has been regarded as a top-notch backstop during his long tenure in the majors.

Defense has been the main calling card for Mathis, but it was only part of the all-around greatness of Beltre, who closed the door on both an eight-year Texas tenure and a Hall of Fame career in November. In the wake of Beltre’s exit, Daniels was tasked with trying to replace a Rangers legend, one who was a cornerstone on the field and a revered leader in the clubhouse. Stepping in for Beltre is an unenviable gig, then, and veteran free-agent signing Asdrubal Cabrera and largely untested trade pickup Patrick Wisdom figure to get first dibs.

Once the crown jewel of the Rangers’ farm system, Profar saw plenty of action with Beltre in the Rangers’ infield in recent seasons. It took the 26-year-old Profar until 2018 to turn into a real major league asset, though, and once Beltre left, he looked like the in-house favorite to man third base. Instead, unable to extend Profar, the Rangers decided in December to send him and his remaining two seasons of control to the division-rival Athletics for a futures package. Of the players Texas landed in the trade, two – righty Brock Burke (No. 9) and infielder Eli White (No. 16) – are now among their top 20 prospects at MLB.com.

While it appears the Rangers’ post-Beltre and Profar infield will consist of Cabrera and Wisdom at third, Logan Forsythe could also see time at the hot corner, among other spots. Forsythe was a valuable player with the Rays from 2015-16, an 1,182-plate appearance span in which he totaled 6.7 fWAR, but he faded with the Dodgers and Twins between 2017-18 (1.6 fWAR over 855 PAs). As a result, Forsythe had to settle for a minor league contract. He’s one of several well-known veterans who accepted minors pacts from Texas, which also signed outfielder Hunter Pence, infielder/pitcher Matt Davidson and righty Jason Hammel in recent months. Pence is back in Texas, where he stood out with the Astros from 2007-11, and trying to put two straight horrendous seasons with the Giants in the rearview. It seems he and Hammel will make the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, while Davidson’s battling with Forsythe to do the same. As a league-average, high-strikeout hitter who offers little defensive value, Davidson’s unexciting in a conventional role. However, the ability to serve as a mop-up man makes Davidson unique and could help him earn a spot over Forsythe.

Questions Remaining

As a club coming off a 67-win season, questions unsurprisingly abound in Texas. For one, there isn’t a surefire star in their position player group, as only three returnees (Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor and Shin-Soo Choo) posted at least 2.0 fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, fellow holdovers Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman and Delino DeShields are all back in starting roles after notching below-average production in 2018, and the newcomers bring their own question marks.

As good as he is behind the plate, Mathis has never resembled a big league-caliber hitter, which means the Rangers will miss Chirinos in that regard. At $4.5MM, it was surprising the Rangers jettisoned the offensively solid Chirinos, defensive shortcomings be damned. Then there’s the 33-year-old Cabrera, who only has 67 third base appearances on his resume and has become a defensive disaster in the middle infield as he has aged. To Cabrera’s credit, he has been well above average as a hitter over the past few seasons, which is more than can be said for most of the other Rangers slated for prominent roles this year.

On the pitching side, it’s up in the air whether the Rangers’ starters can hold up and perform effectively. Lynn has generally done both, though the 31-year-old did have an up-and-down 2018 split between the Twins and Yankees. Smyly was quite promising during his tenures with the Tigers and Rays earlier in his career, but he hasn’t pitched since 2016 and is returning from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Miller’s a former standout prospect who prevented runs at an excellent clip with the Cardinals and Braves from 2012-15, but he has been awful since then and, like Smyly, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. He then missed nearly all of last season on account of elbow problems. And Volquez, yet another TJ patient from 2017, sat out all of last year. That aside, the 35-year-old journeyman has never been the picture of consistency in the majors.

With the Rangers unlikely to contend in 2019 and all of their starters (with the exception of Lynn) under control for two or fewer years, any of them could turn into midseason trade chips if they stay healthy and turn in respectable production. No one else on the roster – not even Leclerc – looks untouchable either, though Choo would be especially difficult to move because of the $42MM coming his way through 2020. It’s also possible the Rangers would rather extend players like Gallo and Mazara, whom they hope are true linchpins, than part with them. There may be less urgency with the power-hitting Gallo, who has four years of control left (including one more pre-arb season) compared to Mazara’s three. But the 25-year-old Gallo has unquestionably been the better major leaguer to this point. Mazara, 23, is teeming with upside, yet he has managed an unspectacular 92 wRC+ with 1.5 fWAR in 1,720 plate appearances.

Given that neither Mazara nor anyone else in Texas has come to the fore as a franchise player, there’s a case that the team should have pursued Bryce Harper and Manny Machado during their months-long trips to free agency. Both players recently ended up with historic contracts – the Phillies gave $330MM to Harper, and the Padres committed $300MM to Machado – but it’s possible the Rangers could’ve afforded either. After all, the franchise has been an above-average spender since Ray Davis and Bob Simpson purchased it in 2010, and Andrus and Odor are the lone pricey long-term commitments on its books. Moreover, either Harper or Machado could have generated further excitement for the Rangers as they gear up to open a new ballpark in 2020. Ultimately, though, the players’ high asking prices scared off the Rangers, who – like the rest of baseball – won’t have a chance to bid on a pair of 26-year-old superstar free agents again in the near future. It seems like a missed opportunity for Texas, which is devoid of a headlining major leaguer and, per ESPN’s Keith Law, only has the game’s 20th-best farm system.

2019 Season Outlook

If the Rangers are going to push for a playoff spot in 2019, a ton of things have to go exactly right, including health and effectiveness from their rickety rotation and high-caliber performances from position players such as Gallo, Odor, Andrus, Mazara and Willie Calhoun. More realistically, a third straight lean year seems to be in the offing for Texas, which hasn’t sniffed the .500 mark since 2016. That said, it could still be a productive campaign for the Rangers if some of their young players prove to be legit building blocks and expendable veterans boost their stock leading up to the trade deadline.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2018-19 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers

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Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

By Jeff Todd | March 15, 2019 at 10:56pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The Colorado ballclub only added a few pieces to its depth chart this winter, but that doesn’t mean the offseason lacked for consequential decisions.

Major League Signings

  • Daniel Murphy, 1B: two years, $24MM (includes mutual option)
  • Total spend: $24MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired RHP Jordan Foley from Yankees in exchange for RHP Jefry Valdez
  • Acquired C Chris Rabago from Royals in exchange for cash considerations (selected in Triple-A Rule 5 from Yankees)

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Alec Asher, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Brett Nicholas, Mark Reynolds, Michael Saunders

Extensions

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: seven years, $234MM (had previously agreed to $26MM arbitration contract for 2019)

Notable Losses

  • Drew Butera, Carlos Gonzalez (still unsigned), Matt Holliday (still unsigned), DJ LeMahieu, Adam Ottavino, Gerardo Parra

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rockies are coming off of repeat postseason appearances for the first time in franchise history. While the club was bounced in the play-in game in 2017 and was swept in the NLDS last year by the Brewers, fans still savored the first full playoff series since 2009. If they’re to make it back into the tourney for a third-straight campaign, the Rockies will have to do so without a few key members of their recent squads — and without any major outside reinforcements.

This is an organization that has bet on its own players more than most in recent years. GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t swing many trades, preferring instead to hang onto and promote the club’s homegrown talent. His two biggest contracts have come via extensions, not free agent signings. Last year, it was outfielder Charlie Blackmon who secured a big payday to forego the chance to test the open market at the end of the season. This time around, the club took on the much more difficult task of working out a deal with franchise centerpiece Nolan Arenado.

Perhaps the game’s best third baseman, Arenado is a premium defender and excellent power hitter who is only entering his age-28 season. His new deal includes a hefty $33.4MM average annual salary for its newly guaranteed seasons, a record for a position player. And it provides him with full no-trade rights and an opt-out opportunity after the third year. The terms hardly represent a bargain for the Rox, who’ll bear the risk of injury or performance issues that arise during the season to come. But the team surely had legitimate concerns about what it would take to retain Arenado if he was allowed to test the open market.

The Rockies also reached another, less-consequential late-February extension by working out a new deal with manager Bud Black. He’s now under contract through 2022. Black, Bridich, and owner Dick Monfort have seemed to be on the same wavelength since the former took over for Walt Weiss before the 2017 season. It’s hard to argue with the results.

There’s a hypothetical world where second baseman DJ LeMahieu also ended up staying around. The club had interest, but it always seemed a bit lukewarm after a club-wide offseason letdown in 2018. LeMahieu ultimately signed with the Yankees for the same guarantee that the Rockies gave his replacement, Daniel Murphy.

Though he’s closing in on his 34th birthday and wasn’t fully himself last year after returning from knee surgery, Murphy looks to be a clear upgrade with the bat. He’s nowhere near LeMahieu’s class with the glove, but the Rockies won’t be asking him to line up at second base. Instead, the club will slot Murphy in at first while moving around some other pieces to fill in other areas. (More on that below.)

Otherwise, the Rockies’ only outside acquisitions rate mostly as depth. Mark Reynolds may crack the roster as a bench bat, while Alec Asher and Chi Chi Gonzalez boost the pitching ranks. In a manner of speaking, the team addressed one other need by bidding adieu to veterans Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra. That’s no slight to the players — both have certainly had their moments through the years and could still be useful contributors. But the organization probably ought to have exchanged pleasantries with Gonzalez for good last winter. Doing so now, while also letting Parra walk, cleared out a left-handed-hitting logjam in the outfield for some younger, cheaper, higher-upside players.

Questions Remaining

We just touched upon (but didn’t name) a few players whose changing status in the Colorado organization could make or break the coming season. Outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia now have an opening to seize major roles. The same holds true for second base/utility candidates Ryan McMahon and Garret Hampson. There’s a fair bit of ceiling for that foursome, though it’s still anyone’s guess which of them will turn out, and to what extent.

Putting real trust in these players carries obvious risk, though it also made good sense. It’s a deserving slate of players. And the Rockies were pressed for payroll space after making some fairly significant outlays on the open market in recent seasons. Mid-season trades can always be considered; it’s worth noting, too, that prized youngster Brendan Rodgers could force his way into the infield picture.

Dahl and Tapia are highly cost-efficient, interesting young players. But neither hits from the right side, meaning that the Rockies again have a skewed outfield mix. That was addressed in part by one other roster shift related to the Murphy-for-LeMahieu substitution. Ian Desmond will move off of first base and into center field, bumping Blackmon to a corner role. That’s a much more sensible alignment, though it remains to be seen how Desmond will handle the work up the middle now that he’s 33 years of age and is a few seasons removed from his previous (and only) season of work in center. Of greater consequence: can Desmond finally emerge from his doldrums at the plate and will Blackmon decline further from a productive-but-not-peak showing in 2018?

If there’s a glaring weakness on this roster, it’s behind the dish. Chris Iannetta is closing in on his 36th birthday and suffered through down season last year both with the bat and in the framing department. Tony Wolters is younger and scored well at earning strikes for his pitchers last year, but has been a dreadful hitter the past two seasons. While Tom Murphy remains an intriguing player given his offensive output in the minors, he’s a bit of a wild card. All things considered, it’s a bit surprising that the Rockies didn’t find a way to improve the catching situation this winter.

The bullpen is the other area of concern on paper. Adam Ottavino was the team’s best reliever last year, but he was never a realistic target in free agency. The club had little choice but to put its hope in a group of arms in which it is heavily invested. Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, and Mike Dunn are all earning big bucks; only Davis was a quality performer last year, and he wasn’t at this best. Seunghwan Oh succeeded after a mid-season trade; the team will cross its fingers that he and Scott Oberg can repeat their strong seasons and that Chris Rusin can rediscover his form. Otherwise, we’ll see some younger arms in action. Antonio Senzatela will be sidelined to open the season but could factor in again once he’s up to speed; Yency Almonte, DJ Johnson, Harrison Musgrave, Carlos Estevez, Rayan Gonzalez, and Jesus Tinoco are among the options on the 40-man.

So … we’ve made it this far in a Rockies discussion without talking about the rotation? That’s a good thing, as the unit didn’t need upgrading and looks rather interesting once again. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland will hope to repeat as a quality 1-2 punch, with the talented Jon Gray still a threat to overtake both. Tyler Anderson and Chad Bettis seem like reasonable choices at the back of the staff. Perhaps Jeff Hoffman can still tap into some upside; Peter Lambert could make himself a factor. Otherwise, there’s some depth in some of the hurlers listed already above, along with Ryan Castellani and minor-league signees Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Alec Asher.

2019 Season Outlook

Overtaking the Dodgers in the NL West will be a very tough task, but the Rockies probably have the best shot to do so of the rest of the teams in the division. The Wild Card won’t be an easy back-up plan, either, as a densely packed National League figures to be full of competition. It’s clear that the Rockies believe their window is open, as it continues to set payroll records and is probably on track to do so again next year (when including reasonable guesses at arbitration salaries). That could set the stage for some interesting trade deadline decisions.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

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Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | March 15, 2019 at 6:38pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

It was a relatively quiet winter on the transaction front for the Astros, but an action-packed offseason wasn’t necessary for the back-to-back American League West champions. Although Houston has lost more notable players than it has gained in recent months, the team will nonetheless enter the 2019 season as the runaway favorite in its division and a legitimate World Series contender.

Major League Signings

  • Michael Brantley, OF: two years, $32MM
  • Robinson Chirinos, C: one year, $5.75MM
  • Wade Miley, LHP: one year, $4.5MM
  • Total spend: $42.25MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired IF Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays for RHP Trent Thornton
  • Acquired 2B Luis Santana, OF Ross Adolph and C Scott Manea from the Mets for IF/OF J.D. Davis and IF Cody Bohanek
  • Claimed C/OF Chris Herrmann from the Mariners, then non-tendered him

Notable Minor League Signings

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Dallas Keuchel (still unsigned), Charlie Morton, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis (still unsigned), Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado, Tony Sipp, Jandel Gustave

[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

A world-class rotation was a staple for the Astros during their two-year run of dominance from 2017-18, a span in which their starters ranked third in the majors in ERA (3.58) and second in fWAR (37.3). While right-handed aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have been at the helm of the group lately, they weren’t in the mix for the entire two-year period. Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. were around for the full run, but the Astros entered the offseason in danger of losing Keuchel and Morton to free agency. Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow & Co. knew the club would have to get through 2019 sans McCullers, who underwent Tommy John surgery in early November.

Given the uncertain statuses of Keuchel and Morton and the unavailability of McCullers, the Astros figured to be aggressive in addressing their rotation during the offseason. However, with Opening Day approaching, they haven’t made any headline-stealing additions to their starting five. That could change if the Astros re-sign Keuchel, who stunningly remains available and whom they have interest in bringing back, but it seems a reunion will only occur if the 2015 Cy Young winner accepts a short-term contract. Unlike Keuchel, Morton’s long gone, having taken a two-year, $30MM offer from the Rays back in November. The 35-year-old’s exit from Houston ended a fruitful tenure which began when it signed him to what became a bargain deal (a two-year, $14MM guarantee) entering its World Series-winning 2017 campaign. Even though Morton blossomed in Houston after several mediocre and/or injury-filled seasons elsewhere, the Astros didn’t regard him as a must-keep piece, evidenced by their choice not to issue him a qualifying offer and their subsequent one-year contract proposal.

While Morton was unwilling to say yes to the Astros’ single-year offer, the same wasn’t true for left-hander Wade Miley, whom they reeled in for $4.5MM at the start of February. Now 32, Miley is only a year removed from having to settle for a minor league contract with the Brewers after two straight woeful seasons divided between Seattle and Baltimore. However, the longtime innings eater ultimately pitched his way back to relevance in Milwaukee, where he posted a terrific 2.57 ERA/3.59 FIP over 16 starts and 80 2/3 frames. Now, thanks to his 2018 renaissance, Miley’s a lock for the Astros’ season-opening rotation.

It appears Miley and the Astros’ other hurlers will work primarily with Robinson Chirinos, whom they brought in on a low-risk pact after the in-state rival Rangers parted with him. Chirinos, 34, is stepping in for free-agent departures Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado – the latter of whom rejected the Astros’ two-year offer toward the beginning of the offseason. The Astros tried to pull in bigger fish at the position, though, as they showed interest in J.T. Realmuto before the Marlins traded him to the Phillies and pursued Yasmani Grandal prior to his one-year, $18.25MM commitment to Milwaukee. Either Realmuto or Grandal would have given the Astros a clear-cut No. 1 catcher, which they may not have at the moment. Chirinos has typically lived up to the role as an offensive player, to his credit, but he’s no world-beater behind the plate. Conversely, backup Max Stassi carries more questions as an offensive player than a defender. While Stassi was an elite defender in 2018 who also managed solid offensive numbers in the aggregate, his production with the bat careened off a cliff after a red-hot April/May. Nevertheless, having lost out on Realmuto and Grandal, the Astros are banking on the disparate skill sets of Chirinos and Stassi complementing one another in 2019.

Chirinos is one of two new regulars in Houston’s starting lineup, but the other – left fielder Michael Brantley – comes with much more fanfare. The Astros’ headlining offseason acquisition, Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM deal which fell short of contract predictions from both MLBTR and FanGraphs. The longtime Indian has generally performed like a big-money player since his breakout 2014 season, though he was seldom available from 2016-17, when shoulder and ankle injuries robbed him of all but 101 games and stunted his numbers.

Fortunately, Brantley bounced back during his platform season, appearing in 143 games and slashing .309/.364/.468 (124 wRC+) over 631 plate appearances. Along the way, he struck out a paltry 9.5 percent of the time – the second-best rate in the majors – thereby continuing a career-long trend. It’s worth noting the Astros’ lineup was a bear to strike out even before Brantley showed up, as their offense registered the majors’ second-lowest percentage (19.5) in 2018. Now, an attack which already boasted Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer should be all the more frightening with Brantley’s arrival. Plus, as a rare lefty in a righty-heavy lineup, the 31-year-old will give Houston a bit of variety at the plate.

The Astros had a need for Brantley thanks in part to the free-agent status of switch-hitting utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, whom they’ve since lost to the Twins on a two-year, $21MM accord. Gonzalez’s contract looks like a more-than-reasonable pact Houston easily could have afforded, and the team did show interest in re-signing him. But long before Gonzalez exited in February, the Astros found a contingency plan in Aledmys Diaz, a mid-November acquisition from the Blue Jays. The Astros are preparing Diaz for a super-utility role to help make up for Gonzalez’s loss, yet it may be a lot to ask of the 28-year-old. After all, Diaz has only seen extensive major league action at a pair of positions – shortstop and third base – and is just two seasons removed from a dreadful offensive showing. The good news is that the righty-swinging Diaz rebounded in 2018 to essentially match Gonzalez’s output at the plate (.263/.303/.453 in 452 PAs vs. .247/.324/.409 in 552 attempts). A repeat of that production would be welcome for the Astros, whom Luhnow noted could afford to trade young righty Trent Thornton for Diaz thanks to a backlog of “upper-level pitching.” So, even though it’s anyone’s guess what the Astros will get from Diaz, the trade seems like a worthwhile gamble on the team’s part – especially considering he’s controllable for four years.

Questions Remaining

The presences of Verlander and Cole surely give the Astros’ rotation a high floor, though it’s evident this is a riskier group than last season’s. Missing are Keuchel, Morton and McCullers, who spun a combined 572 innings of above-average pitching in 2018. No single member of that trio – let alone all three – will be easy to replace, though all-world prospect Forrest Whitley, 21, could be one of the rotation’s saviors sometime this season and there are multiple other intriguing young hurlers at or near MLB readiness. Regardless, it would be unwise to rule out further moves from Luhnow, who swung brilliant deals for Verlander and Cole in the recent past and who has at least tried to bring in another mid- to high-caliber arm since last season ended.

The Astros have been connected to Keuchel, James Paxton, Nathan Eovaldi, Robbie Ray, J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn at times dating back to November. The Diamondbacks’ Ray is the lone member of that group who hasn’t changed teams since then, and Houston could circle back to him (or look to another starter on the trade market) during the season if its rotation falls flat. As things stand, it appears the Astros will open the season with Miley, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock backing Verlander and Cole. Despite the stellar run prevention numbers he put up last season, it’s hard to trust Miley, whose strikeout and walk numbers underwhelmed (5.58 K/9, 3.01 BB/9) and who benefited from an unsustainable home run-to-fly ball rate (5.2 percent, compared to 12.2 percent lifetime). He’s an obvious candidate for negative regression, even if he’s able to continue using his cutter to induce out-friendly contact. Less skepticism is deserved in regards to McHugh and Peacock, who have held their own as both starters and relievers in the majors.

On paper, the losses of McHugh and Peacock from the Astros’ bullpen will hurt the unit, but that’s not to say the club is set up poorly at the end of games. Quite the contrary, actually, as it’s due to receive full seasons from Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly – who joined the team in trades last summer – and continues to boast other healthy, established veterans in Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Chris Devenski. They could be joined by electrifying 26-year-old Josh James, who looked like a front-runner for a starting job before suffering a strained right quad in late February. James, like the rest of the aforementioned relievers, is a righty, and if there’s one quibble with the Astros’ bullpen, it’s the lack of a proven lefty. The team didn’t bring back Tony Sipp, who just signed for a relative pittance with the Nationals, even though he devastated both left- and right-handed hitters last season. The Sipp-less Astros will hope for breakouts from Cionel Perez and Reymin Guduan, a couple hard-throwing southpaws with minimal major league experience.

Meanwhile, with Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer and Brantley in the fold, the Astros will once again have a top-tier offense supporting their pitching staff. There are still some questions in their position player group, however, including: Will last year’s weak defensive showing carry over (Chirinos in, Maldonado out won’t help matters)? Will Diaz emerge as a reasonable facsimile of Gonzalez? Will well-compensated right fielder Josh Reddick rebound from a below-average 2018? How will designated hitter Tyler White follow up a 237-PA season in which he slashed an eyebrow-raising .276/.354/.533 (144 wRC+)?

White won’t have to approach last season’s numbers to properly replace ex-Astro and current free agent Evan Gattis, whose offensive production was pedestrian in 2018. Yuli Gurriel was similarly mediocre, though he remains the Astros’ preferred option at first base. Gurriel doesn’t seem to have a stranglehold on his position (and nor does White on his), however, considering the Astros reportedly pursued Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez and Jose Abreu over the winter. Luhnow has also demonstrated previous interest in Tigers slugger Nicholas Castellanos, who could again end up on the Astros’ radar in the coming months if they’re not content with their 1B/DH situation. Otherwise, should the Astros need an in-season offensive boost, perhaps they’ll shift Brantley to first/DH or relegate Reddick to the bench to make room for standout corner outfield prospect Kyle Tucker.

2019 Season Outlook

While there are clearly some legitimate concerns with elements of the Astros’ roster, and it’s arguable the team should have been more aggressive to improve it over the winter, the star-laden outfit still looks well-equipped to continue as a major league superpower and a division champion in 2019. Plus, with Whitley and Tucker among the talented youngsters in the fold as potential in-season reinforcements, Houston should only grow stronger as the year progresses, potentially setting it up for another title run.

How would you grade the Astros’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

By Mark Polishuk | March 14, 2019 at 8:48pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After a surprising 2018 season, the Rays prepared for a full return to contention with some intriguing trades and the priciest free agent signing in club history.

Major League Signings

  • Charlie Morton, SP: Two years, $30MM (plus vesting option for 2021 that could be worth as much as $15MM depending on time spent on injured list)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Total spend: $33.5MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired C Mike Zunino, OF Guillermo Heredia, and minor league LHP Michael Plassmeyer from the Mariners for OF Mallex Smith and minor league OF Jake Fraley
  • Acquired IF Yandy Diaz and RHP Cole Sulser from the Indians as part of a three-team trade also involving the Mariners. (Indians acquired 1B Carlos Santana and $6MM from Seattle, and 1B/OF Jake Bauers from Tampa Bay.  Mariners acquired $5MM from Tampa Bay, and 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion and a Competitive Balance Draft Round-B pick from Cleveland.)
  • Acquired RHP Emilio Pagan and Competitive Balance Draft Round-A pick from the Athletics, and minor league RHP Rollie Lacy from the Rangers as part of a three-team trade.  (A’s acquired IF Jurickson Profar from Texas.  Rangers acquired minor league IF Eli White and $750K in international bonus money from Oakland, and minor league right-hander Yoel Espinal and minor league LHPs Brock Burke and Kyle Bird from Tampa Bay.)
  • Acquired RHP Oliver Drake from the Blue Jays for cash considerations
  • Acquired minor league IF Gionti Turner from the Indians for RHP Chih-Wei Hu
  • Acquired minor league RHP Caleb Sampen from the Dodgers for RHP Jaime Schultz

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Jake Smolinski, Emilio Bonifacio, Luis Santos, Tyler Cloyd, Ryan Merritt, Casey Sadler, Ryan Sherriff, Ricardo Pinto, Jason Coats

Notable International Signings

  • Sandy Gaston, RHP: $2.61MM signing bonus

Notable Losses

  • Sergio Romo, C.J. Cron, Carlos Gomez

[Tampa Bay Rays Depth Chart | Tampa Bay Rays Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Rays enjoyed great success with the “opener” strategy in 2018, and they’ll continue to use openers to account for two of their five rotation spots this season.  Joining reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell and promising but still rather unproven righty Tyler Glasnow is an established veteran, yet one that still seems somewhat “young” in the sense that we’re only entering the third season of the reinvented Charlie Morton.

After nine seasons of decent but unspectacular work for the Braves, Pirates, and Phillies, Morton breathed new life into his career as a member of the 2017-18 Astros.  The soft-tossing groundball specialist suddenly turned into a strikeout machine with a 95mph fastball, whiffing 364 batters in just 313 2/3 innings for Houston.

Since Morton turned 35 last November, however, his earning outlook was limited. It was the Rays who made a rare free agent splash to land the right-hander, agreeing to a sizable contract that doesn’t come with risk of long-term entanglements.  Geography played a role (Morton and his family live in nearby Bradenton, Florida), though Morton was undoubtedly intrigued at the possibility of joining another young team that may be on the cusp of contention.  This isn’t to say that the Rays are about to enjoy a 2017 Astros-esque level of success, yet the club has further established itself as a legitimate contender to reach the postseason, something that would’ve been sounded wild a year ago at this time.

Both last offseason and throughout 2018, Tampa Bay unloaded virtually all of its highest-paid veteran players, yet thrived by acquiring and developing unheralded young replacements who largely outproduced those more established names.  This allowed the Rays to feel comfortable in making a big expenditure on Morton — his $15MM salary is almost a quarter of Tampa’s entire payroll.

This financial flexibility allowed the Rays to take a bit of a deeper look into the free agent and trade markets.  Beyond Morton, Tampa Bay also had interest in such free agent names as slugger Nelson Cruz and second baseman DJ LeMahieu, while the Rays were also one of the many teams who discussed a J.T. Realmuto swap with the Marlins.

Mike Zunino | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsThe Rays ended up doing in a different direction to address that latter need at catcher….well, as much as a Rays/Mariners trade can be described as “different” given the two clubs’ extensive history of deals.  This time, the Rays and M’s combined on a five-player swap that saw Mallex Smith go to Seattle, while Tampa Bay added Guillermo Heredia to more or less take Smith’s place in the outfield, plus acquired catcher Mike Zunino to bring some stability behind the plate.

Zunino is well-known as one of the better defensive catchers in baseball, with outstanding pitch-framing and an increasing knack for throwing out baserunners.  At minimum, the Rays will add some strong defense and some added pop to their catcher’s spot, as Zunino has 90 homers over the last five seasons.  It seemed as if Zunino was rounding into becoming a true offensive force with a .251/.331/.509 season in 2017, yet he took a big step backwards to his old low-average and low-OBP ways last year, with just a .201/.259/.410 slash line over 405 plate appearances.  The Rays as a whole cut back on their strikeout rate (25% to 22.4%) from 2017 to 2018, so there’s some hope that a new environment can help Zunino regain some of his 2017 patience.

Such a rebound would also be welcomed from Avisail Garcia, who turned in a huge 2017 but otherwise hasn’t completed a full season with an OBP of over .309.  Garcia followed up his career year with a disappointing .236/.281/.438 performance over 385 PA, leading the White Sox to decline tendering a contract.  The outfielder was hampered by injuries last year, however, leading the Rays to take a relatively inexpensive risk ($3.5MM) to see if Garcia can get on track.

The Rays’ offseason was also highlighted by a pair of three-team trades, one of which involved the Indians and (again) the Mariners.  Tampa Bay’s involvement in the trade saw the Rays essentially swap former top prospect Jake Bauers for former Cleveland infielder Yandy Diaz, giving the Rays a bit more multi-positional versatility since Diaz can also play some third base, while matching Bauers’ skillset as a first baseman and corner outfielder.  Minor league righty Cole Sulser and his eye-opening 12.3 K/9 at Triple-A also came to Tampa in the deal, giving the Rays another bullpen depth option.

A few years after being linked to Jurickson Profar in trade rumors, Tampa Bay was finally part of a Profar deal, only as the third team in the mix while the Athletics ended up with the infielder.  The Rays’ contribution was three minor league pitchers to the Rangers, while picking up righty Emilio Pagan and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick (currently the 39th overall selection) from Oakland.  Pagan will help fill the void left by veteran Sergio Romo in the bullpen, though Pagan’s tendency to allow a lot of fly balls and home runs will be tested in the AL East.

Questions Remaining

This is just speculative, but since the Rays picked up an extra draft pick in the Profar trade, perhaps that might make the team more open to surrendering a high pick to sign a qualifying offer free agent….like, for instance, Craig Kimbrel.  The Rays are at least keeping an eye on Kimbrel’s market to see if the closer would be willing to take a shorter-term (one or two years) contract, though it may still be something of a longshot that Kimbrel ends up at Tropicana Field.

Adding Kimbrel would certainly be a major way of addressing a closer position that otherwise didn’t seem like a big priority for the Rays this winter.  The team seems comfortable using Jose Alvarado as its primary ninth-inning option, though it’s fair to assume that several others will get some save opportunities as Tampa mixes and matches its arms.  Ryne Stanek and Diego Castillo, for instance, could be used in the ninth inning when they’re not being used as openers.

Beyond just the personnel involved, the bigger question might be simply whether lightning can strike twice for the Rays and their opener strategy.  Opponents have now had more time to get a book on Tampa Bay’s young relief corps, of course, and the uniqueness of the opener may fade now that other teams are also planning to use a one-or-two inning “starter” for one of their rotation spots.  Adding Morton to chew up quality innings should help keep the bullpen fresh, though the Rays will again be performing a constant juggling act of their relievers, including a frequent shuttle to and from Triple-A Durham.

The same question could be asked of the position players.  Only five Rays players topped the 400-PA plateau last season, in part due to some key names being added or subtracted in trades, but also due to the team’s roster full of players with multi-position capability, able to be moved in and out of the lineup as a game situation warrants.  This season’s Rays have more of a set starting lineup on paper, though it will require some players to prove themselves capable of regular duty.

Trading Smith, for instance, puts pressure on Austin Meadows (a former top prospect) to take the leap in his second MLB season.  Shortstop Willy Adames is being counted on for his own second-year improvement, while Joey Wendle will have to avoid a sophomore slump.  Garcia is a total wild card.  Ji-Man Choi delivered big numbers over 189 PA for Tampa last season, and will now have to produce over a full year as a frequent choice as the designated hitter.  For Kevin Kiermaier and Matt Duffy, their primary challenge will simply be to stay healthy (Duffy has already run into problems in this regard).

As noted earlier, the Rays looked at some bigger names this winter, and did come away with Morton to help stabilize the rotation.  Zunino also fills a need behind the plate, even if he isn’t Realmuto.  For the remainder of the everyday lineup, however, it’s hard to argue that signing someone like Nelson Cruz wouldn’t have provided a clearer hitting upgrade.  After Edwin Encarnacion was dealt from Cleveland to Seattle as part of that three-team deal, there was speculation that Encarnacion would then be flipped to Tampa, though such a follow-up move never materialized.

The Rays ended up with the much less-experienced first base/DH combination of Diaz and Choi, with others (Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe) likely to cycle through first base and much of the roster likely getting a DH day when warranted.  Still, despite Choi’s impressive 2018 and Diaz’s highly-touted exit velocity numbers, Tampa might not have made much of a step up from Bauers and C.J. Cron, let alone the boost that a Cruz or Encarnacion would have provided.

The Rays designated Cron for assignment and watched him leave on waivers rather than pay him a projected $5.2MM arbitration salary. Bauers was moved after just one MLB season, following two years as a top-100 ranked prospect.  It says something about Tampa Bay’s belief in Diaz that the team was willing to move Bauers this early in his career, though it could also speak to the sport’s general devaluation of players (like Bauers) who are limited to playing only first base and a little bit of subpar corner outfield.

2019 Season Outlook

The Red Sox and Yankees are both at least a few steps ahead of the Rays in the AL East, though Tampa Bay compares pretty favorably to the rest of the American League’s wild card contenders.  Given the front office’s penchant for reshaping its roster on the fly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Rays attempt a big midseason trade if they’re in the playoff hunt.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team

By Tim Dierkes | March 14, 2019 at 11:11am CDT

Here’s our list of the largest contract each of the 30 MLB teams has ever signed.  Each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.

  • Angels: Albert Pujols – 10 years, $240MM (plus personal services contract valued at $6,841,811).  Signed 12-8-11.
  • Astros: Jose Altuve – 5 years, $151MM.  Signed 3-20-18.
  • Athletics: Eric Chavez – 6 years, $66MM.  Signed 3-18-04.
  • Blue Jays: Vernon Wells – 7 years, $126MM.  Signed 12-18-06.
  • Braves: Freddie Freeman – 8 years, $135MM.  Signed 2-4-14.
  • Brewers: Ryan Braun – 5 years, $105MM.  Signed 4-21-11.
  • Cardinals: Matt Holliday – 7 years, $120MM.  Signed 1-7-10.
  • Cubs: Jason Heyward – 8 years, $184MM.  Signed 12-15-15.
  • Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke – 6 years, $206.5MM.  Signed 12-8-15.
  • Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw – 7 years, $215MM.  Signed 1-17-14.
  • Giants: Buster Posey – 8 years, $159MM.  Signed 3-29-13.
  • Indians: Edwin Encarnacion – 3 years, $60MM.  Signed 1-7-17.
  • Mariners:  Robinson Cano – 10 years, $240MM.  Signed 12-12-13.
  • Marlins:  Giancarlo Stanton – 13 years, $325MM.  Signed 11-18-14.
  • Mets: David Wright – 8 years, $138MM.  Signed 12-4-12.
  • Nationals: Max Scherzer – 7 years, $210MM (present-day value of $191.4MM at time of signing).  Signed 1-21-15.
  • Orioles: Chris Davis – 7 years, $161MM.  Signed 1-21-16.
  • Padres: Manny Machado – 10 years, $300MM.  Signed 2-19-19.
  • Phillies: Bryce Harper – 13 years, $330MM.  Signed 2-28-19.
  • Pirates: Jason Kendall – 6 years, $60MM.  Signed 11-18-00.
  • Rangers:  Alex Rodriguez – 10 years, $252MM.  Signed 12-12-00.
  • Rays: Evan Longoria – 6 years, $100MM (team also exercised three club options from previous contract, which had a total value of $30MM).  Signed 11-26-12.
  • Red Sox: David Price – 7 years, $217MM.  Signed 12-4-15.
  • Reds: Joey Votto – 10 years, $225MM.  Signed 4-2-12.
  • Rockies: Nolan Arenado – 7 years, $234MM.  Signed 2-26-19.
  • Royals: Alex Gordon – 4 years, $72MM.  Signed 1-6-16.
  • Tigers:  Miguel Cabrera – 8 years, $248MM.  Signed 3-31-14.
  • Twins: Joe Mauer – 8 years, $184MM.  Signed 3-21-10.
  • White Sox: Jose Abreu – 6 years, $68MM.  Signed 10-29-13.
  • Yankees:  Alex Rodriguez – 10 years, $275MM.  Signed 12-13-07.
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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | March 13, 2019 at 8:45pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The White Sox pinned most of their offseason hopes to signing Manny Machado, and instead wound up adding a series of largely unexciting veteran players.

Major League Signings

  • Kelvin Herrera, RP: two years, $18MM
  • Jon Jay, OF: one year, $4MM
  • James McCann, C: one year, $2.5MM
  • Total spend: $24.5MM

Options Exercised

  • Nate Jones, RP: one year, $4.65MM

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired P Manny Banuelos from Dodgers for IF Justin Yurchak
  • Acquired RP Alex Colome from Mariners for C Omar Narvaez
  • Acquired SP Ivan Nova from Pirates for P Yordi Rosario and $500K in international bonus pool money
  • Acquired 1B Yonder Alonso from Indians for OF Alex Call
  • Claimed RP Josh Osich off waivers from Orioles

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Ervin Santana. Brandon Guyer, Randall Delgado, Ryan Goins, Evan Marshall, Matt Skole, Donn Roach, Chris Johnson, Preston Tucker

Notable Losses

  • Avisail Garcia, James Shields, Omar Narvaez, Matt Davidson, Kevan Smith, Hector Santiago, Ryan LaMarre, Ian Clarkin

Of MLBTR’s top ten free agents this winter, the White Sox reportedly showed some level of interest in at least seven of them.  Their most high-profile pursuit was that of Manny Machado.  Prior to the Winter Meetings, GM Rick Hahn tried to make it clear to reporters that he couldn’t “guarantee by any stretch that we’re going to convert on these targets.”  Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel notwithstanding, the dust has settled on the offseason, and the White Sox failed to convert on any premium player they were targeting.

Looking at what the team actually did, this was a fairly typical recent White Sox offseason.  It’s just that fan expectations tend to balloon when front office brass is meeting with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, we know the team can afford either player, and it’s about that time where a rebuilding process draws to a close.  The club hung around in the Machado bidding til the bitter end, strangely acquiring Manny’s brother-in-law Yonder Alonso and good friend Jon Jay presumably to help close the gap on an offer that fell far short.  Here’s White Sox executive vice president Kenny Williams attempting to defend the team’s eight-year, $250MM final offer, as reported by Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times: “People are lost on the fact that on a yearly basis, our offer was more than San Diego’s. The average annual value was $31 [million] and change. So it was about years guaranteed. So there is an argument that could be made that our offer was the better of the two. It certainly had more upside for him. All he had to do was basically stay healthy.”  This is almost comical, as is Williams’ assertion that if the team had gone further financially, fans would have been “much more disappointed in our inability to keep this next core together.”  The key piece of that core, Eloy Jimenez, remains a minor leaguer for the purpose of gaining control of his 2025 season.  The team’s “next core” literally hasn’t reached the Majors yet, but giving Machado an extra two years would break it up?

Chicago’s offer to Machado came in a full $50MM shy of the contract he received from the Padres.  The Sox thought this star free agent was going to be swayed by a ridiculous $100MM in additional non-guaranteed money, or by the acquisition of his buddies?  Going into free agency, there was never a reason to think $250MM would get the job done for Machado or Harper, so why even try?  Hahn’s claim that the Sox made a “very aggressive offer” is patently untrue.  With every large market team sitting out Machado’s market and the price coming in much lower than it could have been, the White Sox still never got close.  After losing out on Machado, Hahn pledged, “The money will be spent. It might not be spent this offseason, but it will be spent at some point. This isn’t money sitting around waiting to just accumulate interest. It’s money trying to be deployed to put us in best position to win some championships.”  

Perhaps Hahn said that so that Sox fans will dream about signing Anthony Rendon or Xander Bogaerts next winter, but the Machado progression hardly inspires confidence that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to outspend the field for a premium free agent.  When Reinsdorf last did that by signing Albert Belle – over 22 years ago – Bud Selig and the owners were stunned that “the owner who’s railed the loudest and longest about curbing player salaries has just broken the bank,” wrote Jon Pessah in his 2015 book The Game.  There’s little reason to think Reinsdorf will shatter precedent again.

Given the self-imposed $250MM limit on Machado, the White Sox knew they weren’t going to get close on Harper.  The White Sox certainly explored other avenues, including upgrades at catcher.  They made a multiyear offer (terms unknown) to Yasmani Grandal, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic.  And the Sox were “in the mix” for J.T. Realmuto, according to Ken Rosenthal.  The White Sox had moved on from last year’s tandem, Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith, deciding someone new should pair with Welington Castillo in 2019.  They went with non-tendered former Tigers catcher James McCann.  Patrick Nolan of Sox Machine disparaged the choice, writing, “The White Sox’ young pitchers have had the misfortune of throwing to tiny strike zones and guys who let the ball get away, and McCann’s poor receiving and pitch-blocking will help continue that trend.”  It’s particularly painful to see a pitcher’s dream backstop, Martin Maldonado, sign with a division rival for the same contract (although Maldonado’s asking price at the time McCann signed had not yet fallen to this level).

The White Sox made reasonable efforts to address their bullpen this winter, trading Narvaez for Colome in November and signing Herrera in January.  Colome is under team control through the 2020 season, though his salary in that season will climb even higher than this year’s $7.325MM.  He’s a solid reliever who stands a good chance of serving as the team’s closer.  They also signed Herrera to a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third season.  Herrera had surgery in September to repair a torn Lisfranc ligament in his foot, but he’s made his Cactus League debut, implying the procedure may not affect him during the 2019 season.  Herrera’s got some other red flags, such as 2018’s declining strikeout and ground-ball rates, but the 29-year-old still throws 97 miles per hour and has a chance to be a major asset to Chicago.  Along with holdovers Nate Jones and Jace Fry, this could be a decent bullpen, especially compared to the cumulative work of last year’s unit.  The White Sox reportedly showed interest in Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, and Joe Kelly before they signed elsewhere.

With highly-regarded pitching prospect Michael Kopech out for 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and James Shields gone to free agency (though technically still unsigned), the White Sox reportedly poked their head in on free agents Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, and Nathan Eovaldi, before ultimately trading for Ivan Nova in December.  Nova, owed $8.5MM in 2019, is a pitch-to-contact, homer-prone veteran who projects for an ERA around 4.60.  If you’re looking for a veteran starter who could potentially be flipped for something interesting in July, Nova doesn’t qualify.  Nor does Ervin Santana, who signed a minor league deal but seems likely to eventually earn the team’s fifth starter job.

“Fundamentally this is a baseball deal,” Hahn told reporters upon acquiring Alonso from the Indians in December, but that claim hardly stands up when looking at the types of contracts that comparable first-base-only sluggers received this offseason (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link).  I again turn to Patrick Nolan of Sox Machine, who explains that adding Alonso at designated hitter will “either eat into Daniel Palka’s plate appearances or force everyone to watch Palka play the outfield more often,” while it also “helped out a division rival with $8 million in cash relief.”  That’s a little harsh, but in Nova and Alonso, the White Sox took on $17.5MM for a pair of players projected by Steamer and ZiPS to be worth about one WAR apiece in 2019.  It feels like spending money just to spend money.

Jay, his friendship with Machado aside, is an acceptable veteran stopgap for a club that parted ways with longtime right fielder Avisail Garcia.  Top prospect Eloy Jimenez will start the season at Triple-A after being optioned just hours ago — presumably to “work on his defense” or another semi-vague reason that will be resolved once he cannot accrue a full year of service time in 2019 (as is commonplace throughout the league with this caliber of prospect).  Until Jimenez arrives, none of the White Sox outfielders look like part of their next contending team.

The truly baffling aspect of Chicago’s offseason additions is that had they simply condensed the money offered to that patchwork collection of stopgaps, those resources could’ve been utilized to up the offer to Machado — a transformative player who’d move the needle considerably more not only in 2019 but in the long term.  The near-$50MM they spent on this offseason’s group is worth much more than $50MM in 2028-29 dollars.  Perhaps the Padres would’ve been willing to further increase their proposal had the ChiSox presented a legitimately competitive offer, but the approach would’ve been much more understandable.

2019 Season Outlook

Fangraphs projects the White Sox as a 70-win team this year, virtually no different from the Tigers or Royals.  Given the team’s run at Machado, this may seem like an incredibly disappointing offseason, but go back to something Hahn said in September 2017: “I think even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us.” 

So, it seems the club was willing to sign Machado or Harper at a relative bargain price and maybe make a little noise in ’19, but that duo’s free agency was always coming a year before the White Sox thought their team would be ready.  The White Sox have just $12.5MM committed to two players for the 2020 roster, so they’ll again enjoy major payroll flexibility in the offseason.  Generally, you don’t get a fourth year for an intentional rebuild, so it’s 2020 or bust for this group.

How would you grade the White Sox’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users.) 

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Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Ty Bradley | March 12, 2019 at 9:01am CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

The ever-patient Pirates are again in wait-and-see mode after spending much of the offseason on the sidelines.

Major League Signings

  • Jung Ho Kang (re-signed), 3B: 1 year, $3MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall, OF: 1 year, $2.75MM
  • Jordan Lyles, RP/SP: 1 year, $2.05MM
  • Total spend: $7.8MM

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired SS/UTL Erik Gonzalez, RHP Dante Mendoza and RHP Tahnaj Thomas from Cleveland for OF Jordan Luplow and IF Max Moroff
  • Acquired RHP Wilkin Ramos from Oakland for RHP Tanner Anderson
  • Acquired RHP Yordi Rosario and $500K in international spending capacity from the White Sox for RHP Ivan Nova
  • Claimed RHP Aaron Slegers off waivers from Minnesota
  • Claimed RHP Jake Barrett off waivers from San Francisco

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Francisco Liriano, Melky Cabrera, Tyler Lyons, Nick Franklin, Rookie Davis, Brandon Maurer, JB Shuck, Vicente Campos, Roberto Gomez, Steven Baron, Patrick Kivlehan

Notable Losses

  • Nova, Luplow, Moroff, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison

Needs Addressed

The mid-decade Pirates, bursting at the seams with full-burn stars and depth for days, as well as a top-end farm system, were as well-positioned as any in recent memory for the Big Move, a three- or four-for-one swap that would have catapulted the team to the top of the National League. It never came. Fan clamoring fell on deaf ears in the team’s front office, which preferred to lean on its then-renowned player development system to unveil its next crop of new-wave talent, already, it often seemed, in full bloom.

Struggles followed. Stalwarts Starling Marte and Jung-Ho Kang were sidelined with off-field issues, Andrew McCutchen was an avatar of his former self, and the top end of the rotation looked more like the middle. The team’s vaunted Shark Tank bullpen had been drained. Nascent cornerstone Gregory Polanco had hit the skids. The window, suddenly, seemed closed.

But as the team plodded through a mediocre 2018 season (and after McCutchen and Gerrit Cole had been sent packing in the months prior), the brass finally showed its sword, sending out multiple top prospects in deadline deals for late-inning reliever Keone Kela and peripheral ace Chris Archer. It felt like Pittsburgh, so often content to fold, may finally be primed to throw its chips into the middle.

Alas, as the offseason’s nears its end, the Pirates are still playing coy. The team didn’t spend more than $3MM on a single free agent this offseason. Its only major trade – an attempt to shore up shortstop, its weakest position in recent years – brought back a 27-year-old utility player in Erik Gonzalez as its headliner. Gonzalez, who’s slashed .263/.292/.389 in just 275 career MLB plate appearances, will get short’s first crack this season.

Another former Indian, Lonnie Chisenhall, was brought in on the cheap for corner-outfield insurance; the team will cash in the policy immediately, as Gregory Polanco, who finally broke out in ’18, will miss at least the first few weeks with a shoulder injury.  Chisenhall’s last two seasons have been marred by injury; they’ve also been fueled by rockets, as the 30-year-old has posted successive career-highs in hard-hit rate, OBP, and wRC+, and appeared finally to be fulfilling his early-career promise when on the field.

Jung Ho Kang, the soon-to-be 32-year-old third baseman, is the real wildcard here. The team would like to find regular at-bats for Colin Moran, but Kang, who’s posted a team-best 129 career wRC+, could anchor the lineup if he can somehow regain his form. After multiple DUI arrests in his native Korea, and a sexual assault charge levied in his brief time in the states, Kang’s leash will be short – too long, still, for some fans, but the Pirates clearly know what they have in the former MVP of the KBO, and will be over the moon if he can at least approximate his mid-decade output.

Under-the-radar bullpen pickups Lyons, Maurer, Barrett, and Liriano (once a key figure in the team’s renaissance) endeavor to give the unit the depth it lacked in recent years. If even one can be righted under the mystical tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, the Tank may yet be full again.

Jordan Lyles will bring his steadily-climbing fastball velocity and much-improved curveball to the battle for the fifth rotation spot. Prolonged stretches of effectiveness have thus far eluded him in his eight-year MLB career. By effectively swapping him in for Ivan Nova, the Pirates shaved over $6MM of payroll but parted with Nova’s steady (if unspectacular) output.

Questions Remaining

The outfield unit is set and could be a fairly good one if Chisenhall is healthy and Marte and Corey Dickerson can repeat their 2018 efforts. Melky Cabrera is presently battling with J.B. Shuck, Patrick Kivlehan, and Nick Franklin for a roster spot and a reserve role. They’ll have to beat out 40-man members Pablo Reyes and Jose Osuna for a seat at the table.

Catcher (Francisco Cervelli and Jacob Stallings, pending the return of Elias Diaz) and first base (Josh Bell) are settled. Otherwise, there are even greater questions in the infield but also quite a few possibilities. Third base will be covered at the outset by a Moran/Kang platoon, while Adam Frazier will factor heavily at second and Gonzalez figures to have the inside track at short.

It’s not hard to envision changes at the 4-5-6 positions throughout the season. Shortstop is the real issue here, but the team, with its grounder-heavy staff, has never much seemed to care about offense at the position, instead entrenching sure-handed gamers like Jordy Mercer and Clint Barmes there in the last few seasons. Gonzalez is cut from similar cloth. Former top prospect Kevin Newman – who once ranked as high as #23 overall on Keith Law’s list – is hot on Gonzalez’s heels, though he hasn’t hit much after a midseason promotion to AA in 2016. Kevin Kramer is another well-regarded middle-infield prospect; he has served mostly at second base in the minors. Kramer struggled in his first taste of the majors last year, but only after turning in an eye-opening run at Triple-A. Reyes may also factor in the infield mix. Top prospects Cole Tucker (shortstop) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (third base) are nearing MLB readiness and could force their way up during the season to come.

The back-end of the rotation could be a problem: Joe Musgrove, though possessing of the ideal command/sink combination that drives the organization wild, has a checkered injury history and again dealt with multiple ailments last season. Trevor Williams has solidified his spot, but he rarely misses a bat (his swing-and-miss rate was the league’s third-lowest last season) and ERA estimators (xFIP, in particular) are not optimistic. If either falters, or misses significant time, the Pirates better hope that Nick Kingham (torched in limited action last season) or top prospect Mitch Keller is ready to make the jump. You have to squint to see Lyles as a suitable replacement for Nova, leaving the Bucs heavily reliant upon their preexisting collection of young arms.

What to Expect in ’19

The NL Central looks to be a thresher. The best-case scenario still has the Pirates contending for the Central crown, but it’s perched atop a heap of ifs: Archer returning to his dominant 2013-15 form, the back end of the rotation staying healthy and delivering quality innings, Polanco making a swift recovery and showing no ill effects, Frazier serving non-believers a season-long taste of crow, one of Moran, Kang, or Chisenhall emerging as a middle-of-the-order threat, and good health abounding. The likeliest outcome is that the Pirates hover in equilibrium, still stuck an arm’s-length away from the elusive treasure.

How would you grade the Pirates’ offseason efforts? (Poll link for app users.)

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Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2019 at 8:14pm CDT

This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

A transformative offseason leaves the Diamondbacks without former franchise player Paul Goldschmidt as well as several other top contributors of recent years.  Still, the D’Backs stopped short of a full rebuild, and are hoping to remain competitive in 2019.

Major League Signings

  • Merrill Kelly, SP: Two years, $5.5MM (plus $4.25MM club option for 2021, $5.25MM for 2022)
  • Adam Jones, OF: One year, $3MM
  • Wilmer Flores, IF: One year, $4.25MM (includes $500K buyout of $6MM club option for 2020)
  • Greg Holland, RP: One year, $3.25MM
  • Caleb Joseph, C: One year split contract, $250K ($850K more if Joseph makes MLB roster)
  • Total spend: $16.25MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired RHP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, minor league IF Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2019 draft from the Cardinals for 1B Paul Goldschmidt
  • Acquired LHP Robby Scott from the Reds for cash considerations
  • Acquired cash considerations from the Giants for RHP Jake Barrett
  • Acquired IF/OF Tim Locastro from the Yankees for LHP Ronald Roman and cash considerations
  • Claimed RHP Artie Lewicki off waivers from the Tigers
  • Claimed RHP Nick Green from the Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Abraham Almonte, Matt Szczur, Ricky Nolasco, Kelby Tomlinson, Rob Refsnyder, Matt Marksberry, Marc Rzepczynski, Alberto Rosario, Damien Magnifico, Michael Kohn, Travis Snider, Tyler Matzek, Lucas Luetge, Cody Decker

Extensions

  • Eduardo Escobar, IF: Three years, $21MM
  • Torey Lovullo, manager: Contract extended through the 2021 season

Notable Losses

  • Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, A.J. Pollock, Clay Buchholz, Brad Boxberger, Jeff Mathis, Jon Jay, Randall Delgado, Jake Diekman, Chris Owings, Shelby Miller, Daniel Descalso, Chris Stewart, Brad Ziegler (retired)

[Diamondbacks Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

One of Arizona’s primary offseason questions was answered before free agency even began, as the D’Backs inked Eduardo Escobar to a three-year, $21MM extension.  After coming from the Twins in a July deadline deal, Escobar obviously enjoyed his brief stint in the desert enough that he chose to forego free agency to remain — perhaps a canny move in hindsight, given how many other comparable free agent infielders had to settle for two or fewer guaranteed years.

With the versatile Escobar locked up so early, the D’Backs had plenty of flexibility as they filled out the rest of their infield picture.  As it looks going into Opening Day, Escobar will be Arizona’s primary third baseman, while Jake Lamb will shift over to first base (perhaps in a timeshare with Christian Walker, or maybe Yasmany Tomas if Tomas can earn his way back onto the 40-man roster).

The right-handed hitting Wilmer Flores could also factor into the first base mix, though the former Met played all over the infield during his six seasons in New York.  While Flores can help out at several positions, he looks to be line for a good chunk of time at second base now that Ketel Marte is being converted into at least a part-time center fielder.

Marte’s first season as a proper everyday player yielded good dividends, as he posted above-average offensive (104 wRC+, .260/.332/.437 over 580 PA) and defensive (+7 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 UZR/150) numbers as Arizona’s everyday second baseman.  While there’s a solid “if it ain’t broke…” type of argument to made that Marte should just remain at second, the D’Backs don’t lose anything by giving Marte at least a part-time look in center field.

On days that Marte isn’t in center, veteran Adam Jones could step into the role in his new capacity as Arizona’s fourth outfielder.  Jones is no longer the player he was during his All-Star days in Baltimore, though as he moves into this new stage of his career, Jones still carries value as a player capable of playing all three outfield roles (even if he’s best utilized in the corners) and as a right-handed bat who can spell David Peralta against some tough lefties.  Beyond on-field contributions, Jones is also a respected clubhouse leader who can help fill the void left behind by the Diamondbacks’ departed veterans.

Jones’ signing may have been necessitated by Jarrod Dyson’s injury situation, as an oblique problem threatens Dyson’s availability for Opening Day.  If Dyson requires a trip to the injured list, the out-of-options Socrates Brito will be retained on the 25-man roster, though Brito’s status could be in question once Dyson returns.  For additional depth, Abraham Almonte and Matt Szczur both joined the club on minor league contracts.

The Goldschmidt trade came with no small amount of pain for the D’Backs, which obviously is expected when moving one of the game’s best players.  Still, the Snakes hope the trade will provide a good return for years to come, in the form of a catcher of the future (and present) in Carson Kelly along with a potential long-term rotation piece in Luke Weaver.

After just 63 MLB games and 131 plate appearances over the last three seasons, Kelly’s development had simply stalled, as Yadier Molina continues to have the Cardinals’ starting catching job on lockdown.  With the promise of more regular playing time available in Arizona, Kelly finally has the opportunity to show the potential that made him a top-100 prospect.  Though one suspects Kelly will end up with the bulk of playing time, the Diamondbacks will be juggling at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, John Ryan Murphy, and perhaps even Caleb Joseph, since the team still looks to keep three catchers on its 25-man roster.

Weaver was also a highly-touted prospect out of the St. Louis farm system, and he sparkled over a brief (60 1/3 IP) stint in the 2017 season.  His numbers took a step back last season, however, as Weaver posted a 4.95 ERA, 2.24 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9 over 136 1/3 frames.  Call it a sophomore slump, or the league simply adjusting better to Weaver after more exposure, yet Weaver was likely only expendable due to the Cardinals’ rotation depth.  Many other teams would have clung to a 25-year-old with this talent level, and the D’Backs will now hope that Weaver can fill the void left behind by Patrick Corbin and Clay Buchholz.

Merrill Kelly was another rotation addition, as the 30-year-old will finally look to make his Major League debut.  Originally a product of the Rays’ farm system, Kelly made it as far as the Triple-A level before heading overseas for a four-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization.  Kelly is an inexpensive flier that could be a real find for the D’Backs if he can carry his KBO form over to the big leagues.  It also helps that the Snakes don’t need Kelly to be anything more than a fifth starter at this point, as Kelly is currently lined up behind Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, and Weaver.  (Plus, Taijuan Walker should return in the second half of the season if his Tommy John recovery goes smoothly.)

Speaking of fliers, the D’Backs made a $3.25MM bet on a more familiar MLB name in signing Greg Holland to a one-year deal.  It was only in 2017 that Holland turned in a largely-strong season as the Rockies’ All-Star closer. After a lengthy trip through free agency, Holland didn’t sign until landing with the Cardinals on Opening Day 2018.  The lack of a Spring Training clearly impacted Holland, as he struggled through a poor season.  Since Brad Boxberger was non-tendered and Silvino Bracho has been lost to Tommy John surgery, there’s certainly room for a reinvigorated Holland to earn significant innings in the Arizona bullpen.

Questions Remaining

That “notable losses” category almost speaks for itself, as the Diamondbacks quietly underwent one of the more substantial roster overhauls of any team in the 2018-19 offseason.  Some of those departures, of course, can be chalked up to the normal winter roster churn, though there’s no hiding the fact that Arizona lost its best hitter (Goldschmidt), best pitcher (Corbin), plus three more of the team’s top ten fWAR contributors from 2018 (A.J. Pollock, Buchholz, and valuable utilityman Daniel Descalso).

There’s only so many low-cost moves a team can make to fill in so many notable gaps, especially since the 2018 roster wasn’t exactly stacked with world-beaters to begin with, having produced only an 82-80 record.  A Lamb/Walker first base platoon has potential, though even at its best it isn’t going to match Goldschmidt’s production.  Weaver and Kelly also have promise but are unproven commodities at the MLB level, and it be remains to be seen if Marte can play an acceptable center field.

Cutting some big salaries and still remaining a solid postseason contender is one thing if you’re, for example, the Indians in the weak AL Central.  But the D’Backs still look at be at least a few steps behind the Dodgers and Rockies in the NL West, leaving Arizona in competition with virtually the entire rest of the National League for a wild card berth.  Could the Snakes get lucky if the teams in the stacked NL East and NL Central beat up on each other?  It’s possible, if improbable.

In a way, this could be the type of middle ground that GM Mike Hazen was aiming for last fall, as Hazen’s front office looked to “be creative” with its offseason maneuvering.  If there’s enough standings congestion that the D’Backs could finish with a top-12 draft pick yet still play enough competitive baseball to keep the fans coming out to the park, that’s a pretty positive result for a team going through a semi-rebuild.

The question remains, however, if Arizona’s half-measures approach won’t leave the team in a similar situation next winter.  If the D’Backs don’t see themselves as full-fledged contenders by 2020, then it may have made sense for the club to also trade Ray and Peralta this winter, as both are controlled only for two more seasons.  Peralta drew interest from the Braves, while the Phillies and Astros were two of the clubs known to be in on Ray’s services, this winter, though the Snakes didn’t seem too keen on trading either.  (Unsurprisingly, Arizona put a very high asking price on Ray in trade talks.)

One player the D’Backs did shop more openly is Greinke, whose enormous $95.5MM remaining salary makes up an untenably large portion of Arizona’s payroll, despite how well Greinke has pitched in the last two seasons.  Between that salary, Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list and his personal desire to stay with the Diamondbacks, however, a trade partner wasn’t found.

Greinke’s salary and Tomas’ ill-fated contract account for a whopping $50MM of the Diamondbacks’ 2019 payroll, and then close to $53MM in 2020.  Last season’s $131.5MM Opening Day payroll hit a new high-water mark for the team, and that seems to be the current ceiling for what ownership is prepared to spend on the roster, leaving some trimming necessary (i.e. the Goldschmidt trade) to keep salaries in check.

Could the D’Backs spend more?  Quite probably, given that they just signed a new TV deal a few years ago, though the club has also been angling for renovations to Chase Field or even a new ballpark altogether in order to increase stadium revenues.  But, if payroll isn’t going to be on the rise, it limits what Hazen’s front office can do in order to keep the rest of his core group together.  There wasn’t any serious consideration given to re-signing Corbin or Pollock, and there hasn’t been any speculation about Ray or Peralta being extended beyond the 2020 season.

2019 Season Outlook

Marte blossoming in center field, Weaver and Kelly establishing themselves as quality big leaguers, bounce-back seasons from Lamb, Holland, Jones, and Steven Souza  — a lot will have to go right for the Diamondbacks to reach the postseason.  It seems likelier they’ll end up in the middle of the pack, though perhaps there’s enough talent on hand to keep things interesting.  On the other hand, if a slow start leads to Ray, Peralta, etc. being moved at the trade deadline, Arizona could find itself in the lower fifth of a very competitive National League.

How would you grade the Diamondbacks’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Keuchel, Kimbrel, Fantasy Picks

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2019 at 3:04pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with Tim Dierkes.

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