Ian Anderson Getting Shoulder Examined
The Braves don’t need any more injuries than they already have, but right-hander Ian Anderson told reporters after his latest start that he felt some tightness in his shoulder that he’s going to have checked out (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Manager Brian Snitker suggested to reporters that Anderson could land on the injured list after undergoing some tests tomorrow.
Anderson, 23, hasn’t matched his brilliant rookie season from 2020, but he’s still given the Braves 96 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate and a 9.7 percent walk rate. Those 96 frames rank second on the team behind Charlie Morton, the team’s only other starter who has not yet required an IL stint in 2021. Anderson walked a career-worst five batters in his most recent outing and has walked 15.2 percent of his opponents through three July starts — nearly double the 8.6 percent rate he’d recorded across 15 prior starts. He’s also tossed three wild pitches in July after throwing only two all season prior.
The rotation was expected to be a strength for the Braves heading into the season, but it’s been a more middle-of-the-pack unit, ranking 14th in ERA (4.05), 11th in innings pitched (461 2/3), 13th in strikeout percentage (23.9) and 19th in walk rate (8.4 percent). Injuries have been a major factor in those rankings and in the Braves’ lackluster showing overall. As with any team that is slowed by injury woes, health (or lack thereof) isn’t the sole factor, but it’s hard to overlook the Braves’ mounting number of issues.
Atlanta won’t get a single inning out of Mike Soroka in 2021 and recently lost superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to a torn ACL. Starting catcher Travis d’Arnaud went down early with a torn ligament in his thumb. Lefty Max Fried has twice landed on the IL (hamstring strain, blister), and many of the team’s promising young arms are banged up as well. Righty Huascar Ynoa looked to be on his way to a breakout — at least until he broke his hand after punching the dugout bench following a poor outing. Twenty-five-year-old hurlers Tucker Davidson (forearm) and Touki Toussaint (shoulder) are both on the 60-day IL, too.
The end result is a 44-45 record and a third-place standing in the division through the season’s first half. Thankfully for the Braves, the rest of the division is also floundering for various reasons, leaving them just four games back from the lead. That leaves the team a chance to fight back into the mix, although losing Soroka and Acuna for the season are potentially backbreaking injuries that’ll make it extra difficult to right the ship. And with the NL West being stacked up with three of the game’s best records, the Braves are seven back in the Wild Card race, which makes their cleanest path to the playoffs a divisional crown.
Contract Renewals: Gallen, Lewis, Alonso, McNeil, Anderson
As a standard course of business every spring, teams reach agreement on contracts with their pre-arbitration players. Since pre-arb players have virtually no negotiating leverage, their salaries aren’t far beyond the MLB minimum ($570.5K), and most teams now adopt a particular formula for assigning modest raises to pre-arbitration players who have performed above and beyond expectations.
When a player doesn’t accept this agreement, it has no change on his contractual status with the team. It just means that his contract is “renewed,” and the team will impose the player’s salary for the coming season. For a further explanation of the renewal process, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd provided an outline in a YouTube video last year.
Why would a player not accept the terms of his team’s raise? Often, it is just a matter of “principle,” as Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty (who had his last two pre-arbitration salaries renewed) said last year, as a player who excels during a season simply feels he is worth more than the minor raise a team is offering. Occasionally, you’ll see a player look for a more substantive raise, as Mike Trout‘s camp asked for a $1MM salary for the 2013 season, following a 2012 campaign that saw Trout finish second in AL MVP voting in his first full year in the big leagues.
While Trout didn’t get his $1MM ask, some clubs have indeed rewarded players with pre-arb salaries worth well above (by a few hundred thousand dollars, in some cases) the minimum, both as a nod to performance and perhaps as a way to continue good relations with a player and his agent in advance of extension talks.
Here is a list of players whose contracts have been renewed for the 2021 season. As you’ll note, the members of this group have already enjoyed significant early-career success.
- Zac Gallen: The Diamondbacks right-hander finished ninth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2020, and has a 2.78 ERA over 152 career MLB innings.
- Kyle Lewis: The Mariners outfielder took a renewal on the heels of his Rookie Of The Year campaign.
- Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil: The two Mets regulars took renewals. As noted by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Alonso’s 2019 NL Rookie Of The Year campaign got him a larger-than-expected salary bump to $652,521 for the 2020 season “as a goodwill gesture” from the team.
- Ian Anderson: The Braves righty made a big impact in his first MLB season, with a 1.95 ERA over 32 1/3 innings. Anderson also has the least amount of big league service time (0.094 days) of any player on this list. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Anderson will earn $575K while in the majors and $142,978 in the minor leagues.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21
The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.
We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
- Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia avoided arbitration with a $1.95MM deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The team also reached an agreement for $805K with reliever Robert Stephenson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Tigers have deals with infielder Jeimer Candelario ($2.85MM), outfielder JaCoby Jones ($2.65MM) and righty Jose Cisnero ($970K), Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays.
- The Yankees and reliever Chad Green settled for $2.15MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
- The Marlins and lefty Richard Bleier have a deal for $1.425MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
- The Dodgers reached a $3.6MM settlement with lefty Julio Urias, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Angels announced a deal with righty Dylan Bundy for $8.325MM.
- The Tigers and southpaw Matthew Boyd have settled for $6.5MM, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets.
- The Yankees have deals with catcher Gary Sanchez ($6.35MM), first baseman Luke Voit ($4.7MM), third baseman Gio Urshela ($4.65MM), shortstop Gleyber Torres ($4MM) and outfielder Clint Frazier ($2.1MM), per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
- The Rays and outfielder Manuel Margot avoided arbitration with a $3.4MM agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Padres and outfielder Tommy Pham have a deal for $8.9MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Dan Altavilla settled for $850K, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets.
- The Angels and righty Felix Pena have come to terms for $1.1MM, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have reached a $4.575MM agreement, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
- The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have come to a $4.7MM agreement, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.
- The Reds and righty Luis Castillo have settled for $4.2MM, Robert Murray of FanSided relays.
- The Rays reached a $2.25MM agreement with infielder Joey Wendle and a $1.175MM settlement with righty Yonny Chirinos, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cardinals and flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks have an agreement for $862,500, according to Heyman.
- The White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito avoided arbitration with a $4.15MM agreement, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
- The Pirates and righty Joe Musgrove have reached an agreement for $4.45MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They also made deals with second/baseman outfielder Adam Frazier ($4.3MM), third baseman Colin Moran ($2.8MM) righty Chad Kuhl ($2.13MM) and lefty Steven Brault ($2.05MM), per reports from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com.
- Hard-throwing right-hander Reyes Moronta agreed to a $695K deal with the Giants after missing the 2020 season due to shoulder surgery, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- The Tigers agreed to a $2.1MM deal with infielder Niko Goodrum, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided. They also inked lefty Daniel Norris for a $3.475MM salary, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Pirates agreed to a $1.3MM deal with catcher Jacob Stallings and a $1.1MM deal with righty Chris Stratton, per Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter links).
- Athletics right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a $912,500 salary for the 2021 season, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- Right-hander Richard Rodriguez and the Pirates agreed to a $1.7MM deal, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Catcher Jorge Alfaro and the Marlins agreed to a $2.05MM deal, tweets Craig Mish of SportsGrid.
- The Reds agreed to a $2.2MM deal with right-hander Tyler Mahle, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. Cincinnati also signed lefty Amir Garrett for $1.5MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
- The Indians agreed to a $2.4MM deal with newly acquired shortstop Amed Rosario and a $975K deal with righty Phil Maton, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic.
- The Tigers and righty Buck Farmer settled at $1.85MM, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Marlins agreed to a $1.9MM deal with right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
Gold Glove Nominees Announced
The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.
The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:
AL Pitcher
- Griffin Canning (LAA)
- Kenta Maeda (MIN)
- Zach Plesac (CLE)
NL Pitcher
- Max Fried (ATL)
- Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
- Alec Mills (CHC)
AL Catcher
- Yasmani Grandal (CHW)
- James McCann (CHW)
- Roberto Perez (CLE)
NL Catcher
- Tucker Barnhart (CIN)
- Willson Contreras (CHC)
- Jacob Stallings (PIT)
AL First Base
- Yuli Gurriel (HOU)
- Matt Olson (OAK)
- Evan White (SEA)
NL First Base
- Brandon Belt (SF)
- Paul Goldschmidt (STL)
- Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
AL Second Base
- Cesar Hernandez (CLE)
- Danny Mendick (CHW)
- Jonathan Schoop (DET)
- Nicky Lopez (KC)
NL Second Base
- Adam Frazier (PIT)
- Nico Hoerner (CHC)
- Kolten Wong (STL)
AL Third Base
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX)
- Yoan Moncada (CHW)
- Gio Urshela (NYY)
NL Third Base
- Brian Anderson (MIA)
- Nolan Arenado (COL)
- Manny Machado (SD)
AL Shortstop
- Carlos Correa (HOU)
- J.P. Crawford (SEA)
- Niko Goodrum (DET)
NL Shortstop
- Javier Baez (CHC)
- Miguel Rojas (MIA)
- Dansby Swanson (ATL)
AL Left Field
- Alex Gordon (KC)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR)
- Kyle Tucker (HOU)
NL Left Field
- Shogo Akiyama (CIN)
- David Peralta (ARI)
- Tyler O’Neill (STL)
AL Centerfield
- Byron Buxton (MIN)
- Ramon Laureano (OAK)
- Luis Robert (CHW)
NL Centerfield
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
- Cody Bellinger (LAD)
- Trent Grisham (SD)
AL Right Field
- Clint Frazier (NYY)
- Joey Gallo (TEX)
- Anthony Santander (BAL)
NL Right Field
- Mookie Betts (LAD)
- Charlie Blackmon (COL)
- Jason Heyward (CHC)
Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.
There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).
There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.
Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.
The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.
NL East Notes: Anderson, Braves, Mets
Some notes from the National League East:
- The Braves turned to rookie right-hander Ian Anderson in tonight’s NLCS Game 2. The 22-year-old certainly earned the assignment, having turning in a 1.95 ERA/2.54 FIP in his first six major league starts. The former 3rd overall pick is now one of the most promising young pitchers in baseball, but he wasn’t seen as a lock to go in the top ten leading up to the 2016 draft. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com looks back at Atlanta’s pre-draft process, crediting area scout Greg Mohrhardt for his steadfast belief in the New York high schooler. Mayo’s piece is worth a full perusal for Braves’ fans or those interested in a look behind the curtain at the process for evaluating top draft prospects.
- Homegrown players like Anderson are the backbone of the current Braves club. Nevertheless, Atlanta has done an excellent job of supplementing the roster in free agency, points out Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet. The Braves’ one-year, $18MM deal with Marcell Ozuna was nothing short of a coup, as the 29-year-old was one of the top hitters in the National League this year. The Braves also hit on their two-year agreement with Travis d’Arnaud, who put together an elite season at the plate and has added a few key moments this postseason. Ashbourne runs through a few other instrumental additions that GM Alex Anthopolous and the rest of the front office have made to help push Atlanta to the NLCS.
- Mets‘ fans are hoping likely incoming owner Steve Cohen will green-light a higher payroll than has become customary under the Wilpon family. Precisely where spending on the roster will land remains to be seen, but Cohen is already taking steps to improve the franchise behind the scenes. He’s expected to invest heavily in building the organization’s analytics infrastructure, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets’ existing analytics and player development systems are “archaic,” hears Puma, who adds that the Wilpons never provided former (and probably future) baseball operations leader Sandy Alderson with the kinds of resources he desired to keep up with rival data-driven front offices around the league.
Braves Announce Starters For First Three Games Of NLDS
OCTOBER 5: As expected, the Braves announced that Fried will get the ball in Game 1, with Anderson and Wright tabbed for Games 2 and 3, respectively (via David O’Brien of the Athletic). Manager Brian Snitker suggested the club could carry fifteen pitchers on their NLDS roster (relays O’Brien). Atlanta only activated thirteen pitchers for their shorter first-round series against the Reds.
OCTOBER 4: The Braves will consider a bullpen game at some point during their NLDS series against the Marlins, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. That’s a lot to put on a bullpen in a 5-game series that takes place over 5 days, but the Braves and manager Brian Snitker may not have a better option available to them.
Max Fried figures to get the start in game one, with Snitker announcing the move in all but name: “I think you want your best going in Game 1,” said Snitker, per Bowman. Fried could return on short rest to start a potential win-or-go-home game five. Said Snitker, “…I definitely think that is a possibility. We just need to see how that first game goes and the subsequent games as well.” Snitker remained coy about officially naming Fried as the game one starter, but only an injury would derail a game one start from Fried at this point, and it seems their ace lefty is finally healthy for the first time in that past month.
Beyond Fried, rookie standout Ian Anderson should line up for game two and Kyle Wright for game three. Again, Snitker would make nothing official, but the Braves don’t have a lot of options given the injuries that befell their rotation during the season.
Game four is where things get interesting for the Braves, as they don’t have a clear option lined up to start this game – hence the possibility of a bullpen game. Josh Tomlin was on the Wild Card roster, and he could function as a key swingman after making 5 starts during the regular season. Tomlin covered 39 2/3 innings across 17 total appearances during the regular season with a 4.76 ERA/4.02 FIP and 8.17 K/9 to 1.82 BB/9.
Atlanta went with a 10-man bullpen for the wild card series, with Tomlin as the only true long man. If they should so choose, the Braves have a number of options elsewhere in the system with experience eating innings. Huascar Ynoa, Bryse Wilson, Touki Toussaint, and Sean Newcomb could conceivably be added to their pitching pool as options to start or eat innings in a potential game four. That said, 10 guys in the pen should be enough even with a bullpen game, and the Braves already expect to lean heavily on Mark Melancon and Shane Greene – each of whom could theoretically pitch in as many as four of the five games, if it goes the distance.
Braves Promote Ian Anderson, Activate Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Braves announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of top pitching prospect Ian Anderson and reinstated outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. from the injured list. Anderson will make his Major League debut and start tonight’s game. In a pair of corresponding moves, right-hander Touki Toussaint and catcher Alex Jackson were optioned to Atlanta’s alternate training site.
Anderson, 22, was the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2016 and has steadily ranked among the game’s 50 or so best prospects over the past three years. He spent the 2019 season with the Braves’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a combined 3.38 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 44 percent grounder rate. Like so many pitchers, Anderson was blown up in the explosive offensive setting in Triple-A last year, surrendering five homers in 24 2/3 frames. However, he only yielded eight big flies in 111 innings of Double-A work.
Scouting reports on Anderson peg him as more of a mid-rotation starter than a frontline ace. His fastball climbs to 96 mph, and Anderson garners praise for a plus curveball and a changeup that’s a bit behind that offering, though all three are considered above-average pitches.
Given the considerable rotation woes they’ve experienced in 2020, there’s some pressure on Anderson to put forth a strong debut effort. It’s not exactly fair to put such lofty expectations on a young prospect, but Atlanta has lost Mike Soroka (torn Achilles), Cole Hamels (triceps tendinitis), Felix Hernandez (opted out of 2020) and Mike Foltynewicz (outrighted after his fastball velocity dipped 6 mph) from its expected early-season rotation. Sean Newcomb, meanwhile, was optioned to the alternate site after surrendering 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. Kyle Wright and Toussaint both posted underwhelming numbers in four starts apiece as well. The Braves have recently leaned on swingman Josh Tomlin and waiver claim Robbie Erlin to start games for them.
The Braves waited on Anderson long enough that he’ll miss out on Super Two status and the opportunity to accrue a full year of Major League service in 2020. As such, even if he’s in the big leagues for good, Anderson won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2023 season and won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season. Future optional assignments could further impact those timelines, of course, though the organization surely hopes that he pitches his way into a permanent rotation spot.
The return of Acuna is obviously a major boon for the Braves as well. He’s missed the past 10 days due to a left wrist injury but had rebounded from a slow start to boost his line to .258/.372/.515 at the time of his IL placement. In 10 August games, Acuna was hitting .364/.488/.818 with four homers and three doubles.
Quick Hits: Pence, Acuna, Anderson, Yankees, Andujar, Kazmir
After being designated for assignment by the Giants earlier today, Hunter Pence‘s second stint with the club has likely come to an end, and the longtime fan favorite wasn’t shocked by the news after hitting only .096/.161/.250 through 56 plate appearances. “I think I’ve been in the game long enough to know that no matter what, what I was producing on the field, you’ve got to bring a little bit more to the table than that. I completely understood,” Pence told Henry Schulman and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Pence said he would “stay open” to the possibility of continuing to play should an opportunity arise, though he acknowledged that retirement might be on the horizon, describing the last “couple of years” as “the bonus rounds” of an outstanding career. If this is indeed it for Pence, he’ll hang up his glove after 14 years of Major League ball that included four All-Star appearances, a league-wide reputation as a clubhouse leader, and a place in the hearts of all San Francisco fans for his contributions to two World Series championships.
More from around the game…
- Tuesday could be a big day for the Braves, as their game with the Yankees could mark both the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. from the injured list and the big league debut of pitching prospect Ian Anderson. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman was among those to report the news that Acuna took batting practice on the field tonight, a day after being cleared to take swings. A wrist injury has sidelined Acuna since August 10, though assuming he is pain-free and feels ready to go come Tuesday, one would imagine the Braves would be eager to get the superstar oufielder back into the lineup as soon as possible.
- As for Anderson’s status, manager Brian Snitker gave a hint to Bowman and other reporters in saying that Tuesday’s starter wouldn’t be impacted by pitching usage in Atlanta’s game tonight against Philadelphia. Pundits rank Anderson within at least the top 45 prospects in all of baseball, with The Athletic’s Keith Law citing Anderson’s “real No. 2 starter upside” as one of the reasons for a 27th place ranking on Law’s preseason prospects list. An early display of this potential would be a huge boost to a Braves team that has been short on consistent starting pitching year apart from Max Fried.
- While Yankees fans consistently speculate that the team could or should trade one of their younger players for a more proven talent, George A. King III of the New York Post pours some cold water on the idea of Miguel Andujar, in particular, being dealt. An injury-plagued 2019 season and a slow start in 2020 has seen Andujar produce only an .118/.141/.118 slash line over his last 71 MLB plate appearances, and King feels the Yankees aren’t going to move such a promising slugger when his trade value is so low. It remains to be seen where Andujar will fit into New York’s future plans given the emergence of Gio Urshela as the everyday third baseman, but that isn’t a decision the team has to make any time soon.
- Could a return to the majors be in the cards for Scott Kazmir? The left-hander is scheduled to pitch Tuesday for the Sugar Land Skeeters, and ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that this outing “will probably be his last start” for the independent club. Kazmir hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2016 or in affiliated ball since 2017, though the 12-year MLB veteran was known to be planning another comeback attempt. It isn’t known how many Major League teams have gotten a first-hand look at Kazmir given how the pandemic has altered normal scouting procedures, but Kazmir would be something of a low-risk flier to see what he could potentially contribute (probably as a reliever) at age 36.
Latest On Braves’ Trade Targets
Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link). It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.
The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part. Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster. (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)
Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM. There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.
Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words. Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month. The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season.
Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18. While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.
Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020. Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions. None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level. This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.
It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017. Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.
Braves Sign No. 3 Overall Pick Ian Anderson
SATURDAY, 8:00pm: The signing is official, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
3:33pm: The Braves have announced that they’ve agreed to terms with Anderson. Heyman tweets that Anderson will receive exactly $4MM.
MONDAY: The Braves and No. 3 overall draft pick Ian Anderson are finalizing a deal that’ll pay the high school right-hander about $4MM, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Heyman adds that Anderson will not officially sign until he has graduated. That bonus represents a savings of about $2.5MM on his slot value of $6,510,800 (via MLB.com’s Jim Callis) — money that will help the Braves afford later picks such as Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller and Drew Harrington — each of whom has already reportedly agreed to an over-slot deal.
Anderson, who just turned 18 last month, was rated most highly entering the draft by ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 7 overall), but Baseball America (No. 12) and MLB.com (No. 13) each had him as a top-half-of-the-first-round talent as well. Shortly before the draft, rumors surfaced indicating that Atlanta may tab Anderson in order to save some funds which would be allocated tough signs, and that indeed is how their draft played out.
Scouting reports on Anderson from the three outlets above praise his fastball that sits in the low 90s but can reach 95-96 mph, and BA calls his changeup “devastating” while giving him credit for an above-average curve as well. At 6’4″ and 180 pounds, there’s certainly reason to think that Anderson can continue to fill out his frame. Anderson’s stock might’ve been higher this season if he hadn’t been slowed by an oblique injury and a bout of pneumonia. Ultimately, his deal will allow the Braves to add four high-upside arms to their ranks. While three of them (Anderson, Wentz and Muller) will be a ways off because they are of the high school variety, landing three arms that both BA and MLB.com rated within the top 25 draft prospects seems like a strong haul that should only further bolster an impressive Braves farm system.
The Braves were $2,584,700 over-slot on the combination of Wentz, Muller and Harrington, so the savings from Anderson alone appear to be enough to ensure that Atlanta avoids the loss of a future first-round pick. That wouldn’t happen until the Braves exceeded their bonus pool by more than five percent, although Atlanta will pay a 75 percent luxury tax on any overages up to five percent. That, however, hasn’t been a deterrent for teams in the past and should be of fairly marginal consequence to the Braves should they be required to do so this year.