Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Astros Rumors

Astros, Framber Valdez Have Yet To Discuss Extension

By | at

There’s been much chatter around the Astros and extensions recently, with Cristian Javier already locked up and the club also interested in deals for players like Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve. However, one player who doesn’t seem to be on the verge of signing a lengthy new pact is left-hander Framber Valdez, as his agent Ulises Cabrera tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle that no extension talks have taken place thus far.

“That is 1,000 percent categorically false,” Cabrera said in response to a report that Valdez could sign before Opening Day and was looking for over $150MM. “I haven’t even had a conversation with (general manager Dana Brown) with respect to Framber Valdez. There are no negotiations. Whatever conversations that do exist will not be handled in the press.” That’s not to suggest that an extension is off the table, of course. “He likes Houston,” Cabrera says of Valdez. “Whatever conversation (happens) beyond that is something we’ll address if necessary. Until then, there’s no use in speculating.”

Part of the reason that extensions have been in the spotlight in Houston is the hiring of Brown a few weeks ago. He came over from an Atlanta organization that has been the most aggressive in the league when it comes to locking up core players to lengthy extensions. Brown has been quite open about his desire to bring a similar strategy to Houston and the club has already crossed one player off the list. Last week, Javier and the club agreed to a five-year, $64MM guarantee that secured his salary for his three remaining arbitration years as well as buying out two free agent seasons.

The situations with Valdez and Javier have some parallels but also some notable differences. Both players have between three and four years of service time right now, meaning Valdez is currently slated to reach free agency after 2025, just as Javier was before agreeing to his new deal. Valdez’s track record of success is a bit lengthier, but he’s also significantly older since he had a sort of late bloomer trajectory. He was up-and-down over his first couple of seasons and didn’t truly establish himself until the 2020 season, when he was 26. Javier, on the other hand, also cemented himself in that 2020 campaign when he was 23.

Looking at the results, Valdez and Javier have been similarly effective, though they’ve accomplished that in different ways. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.66 FIP while his teammate has a 3.05 ERA but a 3.90 FIP. Javier’s 30.9% strikeout rate is much better than the 22.9% rate of Valdez, but the reverse is true in terms of getting ground balls, with Valdez at 66.2% thus far in his career and Javier at only at 27.1%. Valdez has also built this résumé over a large sample size, with his 514 1/3 innings almost twice as large as the 304 1/3 of Javier, and his 8.5 fWAR tally is also heftier than the 4.5 of Javier.

Given the larger sample of quality work, Valdez could perhaps make an argument that he is deserving of an even larger contract than what Javier just secured. He also qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player, which allowed him to earn $3MM last year and $6.8MM this year. Javier, on the other hand, had requested at $3.5MM for this year while the Astros filed at $3MM, before the extension was agreed upon. With Valdez getting himself to a higher price point, that would give him extra leverage in trying to top Javier in extensions talks.

But it’s possible that the age situation causes the calculus to change. In the case of Javier, the Astros are paying him for five seasons in which he will be aged 26 in the first and 30 in the last. For Valdez, the Astros can already control him via arbitration through his age-31 season and any extension would involve locking him in for his age-32 campaign or beyond. It’s possible that the club would have a bit less motivation to keep Valdez around longer since they already control the bulk of what are likely to be his prime years.

Then there’s also the player perspective to consider. Though Javier gave up two free agent years when he put pen to paper, he’s still slated to become a free agent prior to his age-31 campaign and could be in position to find another lengthy deal. If Valdez were to strike a similar deal that also gave the club two extra years of control, he wouldn’t hit the open market until the offseason where he turns 34, which would likely limit him to short-term deals even if he’s still having good results on the field at that point.

It’s possible that Valdez would prefer to stay on his current trajectory so that he can hold onto his best chance of a mega deal. It’s also possible that the Astros could simply put forth an offer that’s too good for him to pass up, but based on the comments from his agent, that doesn’t seem to be something that’s imminent. For now, he’ll be going into 2023 arguably as the frontman of the Houston rotation, with Justin Verlander now pitching for the Mets. He’ll be looking to build off an excellent season where he made 31 starts with a 2.82 ERA, and then took the ball another four times in the postseason with a 1.44 ERA, helping the club to its second World Series title.

Astros Claim Matt Gage From Blue Jays

By | at

The Astros announced that they have claimed reliever Matt Gage off waivers from the Blue Jays. The lefty was designated for assignment recently when the Jays signed Chad Green. Houston’s 40-man roster is now full.

Gage, 30, is coming off a strong season, one in which he made his major league debut. Signed by the Blue Jays to a minor league deal, he was selected to the club’s roster in June and spent the rest of the year as an up-and-down reliever who was frequently optioned and recalled. He posted a 1.38 ERA in 13 MLB innings, striking out 24% of batters faced and getting grounders at a 50% clip. His 12% walk rate was certainly concerning, but it was a solid debut nonetheless. He also tossed 42 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.34 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 47% ground ball rate.

Though he got squeezed off Toronto’s roster, he’ll now join the World Series champions, where left-handed relief is one of the few weak spots on the roster. Leaving aside Framber Valdez, who will be in the rotation, the only other southpaws on the roster are Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski. All three of those players have options, making it possible that they will take turns swapping in and out of the active roster as the season goes along.

Astros Sign Cristian Javier To Five-Year Extension

By | at

The Astros have locked up a key member of their rotation, announcing agreement with Cristian Javier on a five-year deal. The contract, which does not contain any option provisions, locks in his final three seasons of arbitration control and buys out two would-be free agent years. It’s reportedly a $64MM guarantee for the MVP Sports Group client.

Javier will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary for the upcoming season. That’ll be followed by successive salaries of $7MM in 2024, $10MM in 2025, and $21MM annually between 2026-27. Javier’s salaries in the final two seasons can escalate depending on his Cy Young finishes in prior years. He’d add $2MM to his salary in the final two seasons with any previous Cy Young win, $1MM with a runner-up, or $500K for a third through fifth place finish.

“Cristian is an outstanding pitcher, so we are really excited about signing him to a long-term deal,” first-year general manager Dana Brown said in the team’s press release. “We felt that he is the perfect candidate for this type of deal as a core piece of our rotation. This is in line with our vision to try to to lock players up to sustain our success both now and in the future.”

Javier, 26 next month, signed with the Astros as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 signing period. Two years older than the typical international amateur acquisition, Javier received a $10K bonus as an unheralded prospect. That he even made the majors given that modest starting point is a testament to his progression and the Astros’ strong pitcher development staff. Javier has performed at an above-average level from essentially day one in MLB, breaking in with 54 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball during the shortened 2020 schedule.

It was a promising rookie showing in which Javier started 10 of his first 12 outings. He started the first nine appearances of the following season but was kicked to the bullpen in late May thanks to the Astros’ starting pitching surplus. Javier thrived in relief, striking out 31.3% of opponents with a 3.93 ERA as a multi-inning weapon. That affirmed his ability to perform at a high-end level over a full season and put him in the mix for a potential return to the rotation.

That transition back to starting came last April. After three relief outings to open the year, Javier was moved back into the rotation as part of a six-man starting staff. He improved upon his strong first couple seasons, totaling 148 2/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball. He fanned 33.2% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on an excellent 13.8% of his overall offerings. Among 72 pitchers with 140+ innings, only Carlos Rodón and Shohei Ohtani racked up strikeouts more efficiently. Javier’s per-pitch whiff rate checked in 11th among that group.

Javier now carries a 3.05 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout percentage through 304 1/3 career innings of regular season action. That production was certainly eye-opening on its own, though he perhaps firmly put himself on the national radar last fall. Entrusted with a start in Game Four of the World Series with his club down 2-1, Javier outpitched Aaron Nola with six innings of no-hit ball and nine strikeouts. A trio of relievers closed out the second no-hitter in World Series history and evened a series which Houston would go on to take in six games.

Obviously, Houston’s long-term belief in Javier goes well beyond that one performance. He’s among the game’s best young pitchers at missing bats. That’s been particularly true against right-handed batters, who have struck out in 36.6% of plate appearances while hitting .143/.231/.304 against him over his MLB career. Lefties have had a little more success, working walks at an 11.1% clip with a .212/.307/.369 line, but haven’t fared particularly well themselves.

The free passes against southpaws hint at fine but unexceptional control. Javier has walked 10.1% of opponents in his career and handed out free passes at a slightly higher than average 8.9% clip last season. He’s not a pinpoint control artist but has thrown more than enough strikes considering his ability to miss bats. He’s also one of the sport’s more extreme fly-ball pitchers. That led to some home runs issues early in his career but wasn’t a problem in 2022, when he allowed just over one longball per nine innings. That was on the strength of a minuscule 9.1% HR/FB rate he’s not likely to sustain, and homer issues could be at least a modest concern moving forward.

Even if Javier doesn’t replicate a 2.54 ERA annually, his first couple seasons demonstrate he’s capable of keeping runs off the board with a few round-trippers mixed in. The Astros now have Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. signed for the extended future (McCullers through 2026, Javier through ’27). Framber Valdez is arbitration-eligible through 2025, as is José Urquidy. Luis Garcia has yet to reach arbitration and won’t hit free agency until following the 2026 campaign. Top prospect Hunter Brown, meanwhile, just reached the majors late last year and is controllable until at least the 2028-29 offseason.

That controllable rotation should position the Astros to stretch their run of success well into the decade. It’s possible more deals are coming, as the new GM has already gone on record about a desire to lock up multiple key players on long-term extensions. That has been an organizational emphasis for the Braves, in whose front office Brown worked before landing the Houston GM job two weeks ago. It hasn’t taken long for him to bring that philosophy to Houston, and while Brown candidly implied yesterday that a Javier deal was likely to be the first one coming, it’s hard to imagine it’ll be the last one that gets done.

Former GM James Click had already extended Yordan Alvarez through 2028 last summer. Star outfielder Kyle Tucker (arb-eligible through 2025) and infielders Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve (both under contract for two more seasons) are among the other players whom Brown has expressed a desire to keep around.

The Javier deal won’t have a huge impact on the club’s 2023 payroll. He and the team had been slated to go to an arbitration hearing that would’ve seen him earn either $3MM or $3.5MM for this season. Factoring in the signing bonus adds $1.5MM – $2MM to the club’s ledger this year. Houston’s payroll now sits around $193MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s above last year’s estimated $174MM season0opening mark but not a dramatic spike for a franchise coming off a World Series win.

The extension has a more notable impact on the club’s luxury tax calculation. A deal’s average annual value counts against a team’s CBT ledger. Javier’s now at $12.8MM from a CBT perspective, bringing Houston’s projected tax number around $218MM. That leaves them about $15MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

The following $7MM and $10MM salaries reflect reasonable enough assumptions about how Javier’s payments might have escalated over his final two arbitration seasons. Houston’s $21MM annual payments for his two would-be free agent years, however, mark a step up in this service bracket. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara signed a five-year extension that guaranteed $56MM last winter, the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and fours year of service. That was before Alcantara exploded for a Cy Young-winning 2022 season but he was coming off a 3.19 ERA showing over 205 2/3 innings and had twice topped 30 starts in a season.

That Javier broke the record for his service group is impressive enough, though his camp’s stronger victory on the deal was in the absence of any club options at contract’s end. Alcantara’s extension came with a $21MM team option for a sixth season. Carlos Martínez, who had the second-largest guarantee among starters in the service class at $51MM, surrendered two team options. Nola agreed to one option in his $45MM deal over the 2018-19 offseason.

Javier didn’t need to do so. He secures his first life-changing guarantee and set the record for pitchers in the service bracket while still remaining in strong position for a strong free agent deal down the line. Javier is scheduled to hit free agency after his age-30 campaign, when a six-plus year contract would be on the table if he continues to perform as a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter.

The Astros don’t secure the extent of the long-term upside that’s typically present on extensions of this nature. They do tack on two more years of Javier’s services and the $21MM annual salary would be below his free agent market value if he stays healthy and performs at the level he has to this point in his career. Houston has arguably the sport’s best roster already and has taken another step towards extending that window with core players. Given the aggressiveness with which their new GM hammered out his first significant deal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were more on the horizon.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle first reported Javier was guaranteed $64MM, including a $2MM signing bonus, and that the deal didn’t contain any option years. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the yearly salary breakdown. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the presence of awards bonuses and escalators, with the Associated Press providing specifics on the bonus structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Yuli Gurriel, Astros

By | at

Longtime Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel remains one of the most recognizable names on the free-agent market, but it’s been a generally quiet offseason with regard to interest in the former batting champion and Gold Glove winner. The 38-year-old has drawn interest from the Marlins, Twins and incumbent Astros, but Miami reportedly backed down in its pursuit of Gurriel late last month. Newly minted Astros GM Dana Brown spoke to the Houston media yesterday and touched on Gurriel, effusing praise but also rather candidly suggesting they may not have enough playing time for him following the signing of Jose Abreu earlier in the winter (Twitter link, with video, via Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26).

“The tough part about Gurriel is he’s so well-liked,” said Brown. “In the clubhouse, he was outstanding. The players love him. The coaches love him. When we signed Abreu, it makes it tough to go out and get Gurriel because now it’s more of a want as opposed to a need. I think you have to stick with the needs before you jump into the wants, because if you get into the wants, now you have too much of a surplus in one area and it causes weaknesses in other areas. We love the player and would love to have him back, but we have to figure out if there’s any room where he can get at-bats with Abreu here.”

The apparent lack of a market for Gurriel isn’t a total surprise, as he’s coming off a down season in which he slashed just .242/.288/.360 with a career-low (for a full season) eight home runs inn 584 plate appearances. Gurriel won a batting title as recently as 2021, when he hit .319/.383/.462, and he took home a Gold Glove at first base that season as well. However, even his typically strong defensive grades took a nosedive in 2022; Gurriel rated as a negative in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved (-2), Ultimate Zone Rating (-0.2) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-9).

The downturn at the plate wasn’t merely a matter of poor fortune, either. While Gurriel was plagued, to an extent, by a .266 average on balls in play that falls well shy of his career .294 mark, some of that is attributable to a decline in the quality of his contact. His line-drive rate dipped to a career-low 18.5%, for instance, and Statcast measured his average exit velocity (88.2 mph), hard-hit rate (35.4%) and barrel rate (just 1.9%) at career-low levels. Furthermore, while Gurriel’s strikeout rate remained excellent relative to league-average 22.4%, his 12.5% mark was nonetheless a career-worst. That’s a testament to his superlative bat-to-ball skills, but the handful of extra punchouts still further dragged down his overall production.

Brown’s comments Thursday certainly don’t sound as though they’re a portent for a reunion with Gurriel, however beloved he may be in the clubhouse and throughout the organization as a whole. With Abreu taking the lion’s share of time at first base and a corner outfield/designated hitter mix slated to feature productive hitters like Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley, it would indeed be tough to bring Gurriel aboard as anything more than a bench bat. But while the Marlins were weighing Gurriel as an option to split time between first base, second base and third base, it’s doubtful every team would consider him for such a versatile role. With the exception of two emergency innings at third base in 2021, Gurriel has played exclusively as a first baseman or designated hitter dating back to Opening Day 2020.

The Twins have more of an opening at first base, where longtime prospect Alex Kirilloff is the favorite for at-bats right now. Kirilloff, a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect in the sport, has just a .251/.295/.398 slash in 387 big league plate appearances, but that production has been adversely impacted by wrist injuries that have required a pair of surgeries. He’s a career .323/.378/.518 hitter in the minors and only just turned 25 this offseason, so Minnesota undoubtedly hopes he can be a big part of the outlook moving forward. Gurriel would give them a right-handed complement to the left-handed Kirilloff and provide some insurance should injuries again sideline him, but Minnesota’s bench is deep in right-handed bats as it is and signing Gurriel would likely mean optioning Trevor Larnach (another former first-rounder and top prospect who’s been beset by injuries) to Triple-A.

Clear fits for Gurriel aren’t exactly plentiful at the moment, though there are some teams that could potentially work him into a part-time first base/DH role (e.g. Rangers, Reds, to name a couple). It’s certainly possible that some spring injuries will open the door for a new opportunity once camps begin to get underway, however. At this point, that might be what it takes for Gurriel to find a semi-regular role.

Kyle Tucker Loses Arbitration Hearing Against Astros

By | at

Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has lost his arbitration case, the Associated Press reports. He’ll be paid at the team’s filing rate of $5MM instead of the $7.5MM his camp had sought.

That $2.5MM gap was the largest of any player and team who had gone to an arbitration hearing this offseason. (The Blue Jays and Bo Bichette had an identical filing gap but agreed to a three-year contract to avoid the process this week). That’s in large part a reflection of Tucker’s status as a first-time eligible player, as the sides and panel couldn’t base their determination on any of his previous salaries.

The team’s filing rate was closer to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $5.6MM at the start of the offseason. The outfielder’s bid to beat that number came up short, although he’ll still collect one of the bigger salaries for any first-time eligible player. Only Dylan Cease ($5.7MM), Zac Gallen ($5.6MM) and Will Smith ($5.25MM) settled on a one-year deal at a higher rate among first-year players. Bichette’s deal guaranteed him $33.6MM over his three arbitration seasons; the specific financial breakdown is not yet known, though it’d seem likely he’ll make more than the $5MM for which the Blue Jays were set to file in the first season of that deal.

Tucker owns a .268/.335/.502 line in a little more than 1500 career plate appearances. He’s connected on 73 home runs, driven in 256 runs and stolen 53 bases. Nearly half of those steals came last season, when he went 25-29 on the basepaths. Tucker hit .257/.330/.478 with 30 homers and 107 RBI during his final season leading up to arbitration. He also won a Gold Glove for his excellent defense in right field, played in his first All-Star Game and received some down-ballot MVP support for the second consecutive season.

The arbitration loss means Tucker will be working from a lower platform salary than he’d hoped for the next couple years. The process is designed so that salaries escalate each season based on both the player’s salary in the prior year and his ongoing performance track record. Given Tucker’s consistent, well above-average production, he should be in position to bank solid raises for the next couple seasons — though those will start from a $5MM base level rather than his desired $7.5MM platform. He’s slated to go through the process twice more before qualifying for free agency during the 2025-26 offseason.

That could be more or less a moot point if Tucker and the Astros can work out a longer-term agreement. New general manager Dana Brown has already spoken of his desire to sign the star outfielder to a multi-year contract. Clearly, the sides couldn’t agree to terms before going into this week’s hearing, though that doesn’t preclude them from further negotiations this spring or next offseason.

The victory closes one of two arbitration cases for the Astros this winter. Starting pitcher Cristian Javier is set for a hearing (barring a multi-year deal of his own) in the coming days. The young righty is seeking a $3.5MM salary, while the club countered at $3MM.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

By | at

The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Brown: Astros Pursuing Extensions With Multiple Core Players

By | at

It’s been two weeks since the Astros tabbed now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown as their new general manager, but Brown has wasted little time in embarking on extension talks with Houston’s core players. The GM acknowledged earlier this week that he’s had talks with Kyle Tucker’s camp in the run-up to Tucker’s arbitration hearing, but there are far more players under consideration, it seems.

Brown told reporters today that he’s held discussions not only with Tucker and his reps but also with the agents for right-hander Cristian Javier. Furthermore, the newly minted GM publicly expressed interest in extending third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve (Twitter links, with video, via Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26). Both Bregman and Altuve are currently signed through 2024. Bregman told the media today that Brown and agent Scott Boras have already had conversations.

The Astros haven’t necessarily been shy about extensions under prior front office regimes, but it’s a change of pace to hear the team’s top baseball operations executive so candidly discuss such matters. Houston has, in recent years, brokered long-term deals with Bregman (five years, $100MM), Altuve (five years, $151MM), Yordan Alvarez (six years, $115MM) and Lance McCullers Jr. (five years, $85MM) before each reached free agency.

That said, the team hasn’t been quite so aggressive with players early in their pre-arbitration years — a recent hallmark of the Braves organization which Brown just departed. Outside of Altuve’s original four-year, $12.5MM extension, the Astros have generally waited until their players have accrued three or more years of service time, hence the heftier nature of the annual salaries on those previously mentioned long-term pacts. That, it seems, is something Brown endeavors to change (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

“I think [owner Jim Crane] and I are going to meet somewhere in the middle,” said Brown. “I’m more on the aggressive side of signing them, he may be more on the conservative side, but he’s very open to getting these players signed.” Brown also added that he’s told Crane to “fasten his seatbelt — it’s time.”

It’s likely music to the ears of Astros fans, who saw substantial roster turnover from the 2017 World Series team to the 2022 World Championship club. Bregman, Altuve, McCullers, Yuli Gurriel and Justin Verlander — who’s since departed via free agency — were the only players on both rosters. While that quintet eventually signed new contracts (Verlander opted out of his most recent deal to again test free agency; Gurriel took a one-year extension with a club option covering 2021-22), none of the team’s newly emerged core has put pen to paper on a long-term arrangement just yet.

Brown spoke with particular optimism regarding the progress made on a potential long-term deal with Javier, the 25-year-old right-hander who has emerged as one of the team’s best starting pitchers. Javier logged a career-high 148 2/3 innings this past season, notching an outstanding 2.54 ERA and fanning a massive 33.2% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. He’s controlled for another three seasons and, like Tucker, is working to avoid a looming arbitration hearing. Javier filed for a $3.5MM salary to the Astros’ counter of $3MM, but it seems there’s a decent chance the two parties work out a lengthier arrangement. “We feel really good about that one,” Brown stated.

Contract extensions for arbitration-eligible players like Javier tend to be based heavily on precedent, which at least provides some potential clues to where the numbers could eventually fall. Recent examples of long-term deals for pitchers with between three and four years of service time (Javier has three exactly), include Aaron Nola’s four-year, $45MM deal from 2019 (which contained a club option for a fifth season) and, more recently, Sandy Alcantara’s five-year, $56MM extension (with an option for a sixth season).

On a rate basis, Javier stacks up favorably to both Alcantara and Nola at the time of their respective extensions; he’s arguably been even better, with a lower ERA (3.05 to Nola’s 3.35 and Alcantara’s 3.49) and a considerably better strikeout rate (30.9% for Javier, 25.7% for Nola, 21.2% for Alcantara). However, both Nola and Alcantara had amassed vastly higher innings totals heading into their first arbitration seasons. Javier has just 304 1/3 career innings (partly due to ample time in the bullpen before a more permanent move to the rotation in 2022), whereas Alcantara had 487 1/3 innings and Nola had piled up a massive 569 frames.

That workload discrepancy is the primary reason that Javier’s projected $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) falls well shy of the $4.5MM at which Alcantara was projected prior to his extension and the $6.6MM at which Nola was projected. That’s not to say Javier can’t find a way to top the guarantees on either deal, but his camp would need to secure a larger AAV on the free-agent years or perhaps agree to a sixth guaranteed year in order to do so, as his arbitration seasons are inherently going to be valued at lesser rates than those recent comps.

Turning back to a broader look at today’s press conference, Brown didn’t tip his hand on every player with whom he plans to pursue a contract extension, though it’s easy enough to look up and down the roster and identify a few speculative candidates. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has just one year of MLB service under his belt. He’s two years from reaching arbitration and another five years from free agency. Lefty Framber Valdez and righty Luis Garcia, meanwhile, are three and four seasons away from reaching the open market, respectively. Looking to how the Braves operated, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see top prospects like Hunter Brown (0.89 ERA in a 20 1/3 inning MLB debut last year) approached about long-term arrangements fairly early on in their MLB tenures.

Not every overture to sign a player will be successful, of course, but Brown made clear that one of his philosophical beliefs about the job is to correctly identify core players early on and aggressively present scenarios intended to keep them with the club beyond their base six years of control.

“I want you guys to know if a guy walks out of here, it’s not going to be because we didn’t go after him aggressively,” said Brown. “We’re trying to sign players.”

Astros, Kyle Tucker Have Discussed Extension

By | at

The new Astros general manager Dana Brown recently chatted with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was asked whether they have begun extension talks with some of their younger players such as Kyle Tucker. “Tucker, we’ve been in conversation,” Brown said. “Some of the stuff was started prior to me coming. We had some talks with Tucker, of course, because it’s coming up on the arbitration hearing.”

The fact that the club is interested in extending Tucker is hardly shocking. For one thing, it was reported back in May that the club had reached out to Tucker’s camp but didn’t get very far at that time. That they are still interested in such an arrangement makes perfect sense as Tucker has only continued to cement himself as one of the league’s best all-around players in the interim. He launched 30 home runs last year and stole 25 bases. His 9.7% walk rate and 15.6% strikeout rate were both better than league average, leading to a .257/.330/.478 batting line and 129 wRC+. His outfield glovework was ranked as above average by all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating.

All of that taken together allowed Tucker to produce 4.7 wins above replacement on the season, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That was a slight improvement over the 4.6 he posted the year before. When combined with his 1.7 fWAR from the shortened 2020 season, he’s tallied 11.1 over the past three years, placing him 16th among all position players in that time.

Of course, that excellent production means that he’s likely set himself up for some strong earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a raise to a $5.6MM salary for 2023. He and the club didn’t agree to terms prior to the filing deadline, with Tucker submitting a figure of $7.5MM and the team at $5MM. The 26-year-old will be eligible for two further passes through the arb system in 2024 and 2025 before he’s slated to become a free agent, just a couple of months prior to his 29th birthday.

There haven’t been many lengthy extensions recently signed by position players in the 3-4 year service bracket, though there is one recent comparable in Sean Murphy. He is a catcher and two years older than Tucker, so it’s not an apple-to-apples comparison. However, he did produce 10.0 fWAR in the three seasons prior to agreeing to a six-year, $73MM deal with Atlanta in December, within range of Tucker’s 11.1 fWAR tally in that time. Moving up to the 4-5 year service class and we find another interesting comparison in Matt Olson. He produced 9.7 fWAR in the three seasons from 2019 to 2021 before signing an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta prior to the 2022 campaign. He had earned $5MM in his first arbitration season with the A’s in 2021, which Tucker could potentially do as well, depending on the results of his hearing. Olson was two years older at that time than Tucker is now, as he was going into his age-28 campaign. Given Tucker’s youth and stronger overall results, he could plausibly ask for something topping Murphy’s guarantee right now and perhaps go beyond Olson next year. The huge gaps between those two deals highlights why Houston might want a deal done sooner rather than later.

For the Astros, their recent track record is mixed when it comes to their homegrown stars. George Springer and Carlos Correa reached free agency and signed elsewhere while Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez signed lengthy contracts to stick around. Brown, of course, just came over to the club from Atlanta, a club that has famously given out more extensions recently than any other. In addition to Olson and Murphy, they’ve also locked up Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II over the past few years. Perhaps Brown can bring that playbook with him to Houston, but it’s unclear if any of the recent talks have got the two sides close to any kind of agreement.

Astros Sign Bryan Garcia To Minor League Deal

By | at

The Astros announced to reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that they have signed right-hander Bryan Garcia to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Garcia, 28 in April, joins just his second organization, as he’s spent his entire career with the Tigers up until this point. He got solid results in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 1.66 ERA over 26 relief appearances. However, his fortunes completely flipped the next year, with his ERA shooting up to 7.55 over 39 games in 2021.

2022 was a strange season for Garcia, as he started working in longer stints after previously working primarily as a single-inning reliever. In Triple-A, he made 11 starts and 28 relief appearances, logging 85 1/3 innings in that time with a 3.80 ERA. He also made four starts in the majors with a 3.54 ERA. He might have been quite fortunate to keep earned runs off the board in both cases. He struck out 19.4% of hitters in the minors and 20.2% in the majors, while walking opponents at a 9.6% clip in Triple-A and 11.9% rate in the bigs. His batting average on balls in play was .276 in the minors and .216 in the majors, while his strand rate was 78.9% in Triple-A and 83.3% in the show, with all of those numbers being on the fortunate side of average. That’s borne out by his 4.83 FIP with the Mud Hens and 5.28 mark with the Tigers.

It’s unclear if the Astros view him as a starter or a reliever, though he’ll serve as pitching depth either way. He’ll be competing with other experienced hurlers that will be in camp as non-roster invitees, such as Austin Davis and Ty Buttrey.

Latest On Yuli Gurriel’s Free Agency

By | at

Yuli Gurriel is one of the more accomplished free agent hitters still available, though he’s seeking a bounceback opportunity after a rough 2022 campaign. It seemed things were moving towards a resolution a couple weeks ago when reports suggested his camp was making progress in talks with the Marlins. However, Miami eventually pulled back that pursuit.

That has left the 38-year-old without a publicly defined market. The only other teams tied to Gurriel this offseason are the Twins and the incumbent Astros, with whom the Cuban infielder spent his first seven big league seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday Gurriel had sought a guarantee in the $3MM range at one point this offseason. Whether that’s still his goal is unclear, though the Post reports he declined multiple contract offers that were apparently below his asking price.

Heyman adds Houston manager Dusty Baker would like for Gurriel to return, though it’s not clear if there’s a fit on the roster given the team’s early-offseason pickup of José Abreu. Houston has Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley to split time between designated hitter and left field. Any path to playing time on the Astros roster would be as a right-handed bench bat. Houston already has a pair of right-handed infielders — Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley — who could crack the roster while offering more defensive flexibility.

Gurriel has some previous MLB experience at second and third base but has played almost exclusively first base since the start of the 2020 campaign. That’s at least in part because Houston has Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman entrenched at those other infield spots. Gurriel garnered solid marks from public defensive metrics for his intermittent third base work between 2016-19 and was a Gold Glove winning first baseman as recently as 2021. His defensive marks at first base cratered last season, though, which could give teams pause about his ability to handle any more demanding positions as he enters his age-39 season.

His offense is something of a question mark as well. Gurriel is coming off a .242/.288/.360 line with just eight home runs through 584 regular season plate appearances. He finished the year with an excellent 12-game playoff run (.347/.360/.490) before a World Series-ending MCL sprain in his right knee. On the one hand, it was Gurriel’s second well below-average offensive showing in the past three years, as he managed just a .232/.274/.384 showing during the shortened 2020 schedule. Yet his intervening season was brilliant, as he posted a .319/.383/.462 mark in 143 games in 2021, securing an American League batting title.

Gurriel still has excellent bat-to-ball skills. Last year’s 12.5% strikeout rate was a personal high but checked in roughly ten percentage points below the league average. Even with a below-average slash line, he collected 40 doubles for the third time in his career. Still, the 2022 season also represented the first time he failed to reach double-digit homers in a full season, and his on-base percentage was fifth-lowest among 36 first basemen with 400+ plate appearances.

There are a few remaining rebound targets available at the position in free agency. Longtime Twin slugger Miguel Sanó will hold a showcase for scouts next week, while 2020 home run leader Luke Voit is unsigned after being non-tendered by the Nationals. Gurriel brings a far different approach than those high-strikeout sluggers, though Sanó and Voit are far younger.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top