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The Opener

The Opener: Mets, Giants, Orioles

By Nick Deeds | December 22, 2022 at 8:14am CDT

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the baseball world today:

1. How many more moves do the Mets have in them?

After their jaw-dropping signing of Carlos Correa to play third base, the Mets made another pair of moves last night, shipping James McCann out to the Orioles and adding Danny Mendick on a $1MM deal. With Mets officials reportedly expecting Mendick to be ready for Opening Day on March 30th, his signing will likely further fuel speculation that Eduardo Escobar, who has already been pushed to the bench by Correa, could be the next veteran piece the Mets ship out. Correa’s signing also leaves Brett Baty and Mark Vientos blocked at third base. While both prospects can play other positions (Baty can play the outfield, while Vientos can profiles better at first or DH than third), Billy Eppler’s front office may be more willing to dangle them in trade talks now that they have a long-term answer at third base. Such a deal could inspire even more moves. For example, the Mets are already reportedly entertaining offers for Carlos Carrasco, and they would be even more motivated to do so if they landed another starting pitcher by trade, likely pushing Carrasco out of the starting rotation. Whatever specific moves they make from here, the Mets have been among the offseason’s most active teams, and they’ve shown no signs of slowing down as of yet.

2. Will we ever hear the Giants side of the Correa situation?

After the deal between Correa and the Giants fell apart due to medical concerns, Correa’s agent Scott Boras took to the media to explain his– and his client’s– side of the story. Boras characterizes the situation as San Francisco being concerned by an injury that predates Correa’s time in the majors, and says the Giants ultimately did not return to the negotiating table before Boras felt he needed to restart negotiations with other clubs, leading to Correa’s new deal with the Mets. The Giants, for their part, have been relatively quiet on the topic, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi simply noting that the team is not allowed to disclose confidential medical information. Still, given the unprecedented nature of the whole debacle and the confusion and frustration it has caused among the Giants faithful, fans surely are hoping for a more clear explanation and resolution to the whole ordeal in the coming days.

3. Will the Orioles deal from their position player surplus?

The Orioles offseason so far has been decently active, even if it hasn’t been to the level some fans were hoping for. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens have all agreed to one-year deals, while the organization picked up McCann to back up Adley Rutschman last night. Still, there’s much more to do in Baltimore in order to supplement a roster that surprised most by winning 83 games and avoiding a last place finish in the deeply competitive AL East last year. The most glaring hole in the team is the starting rotation, where only Dean Kremer posted an ERA below 4.00 last season, and Gibson may actually be a downgrade from innings-eater Jordan Lyles, who departed for Kansas City after the Orioles declined a 2023 team option for his services. Fortunately for the O’s and their fans, however, there’s plenty of interesting pieces in Baltimore who could draw trade interest from other clubs and make a deal possible. Slick-fielding shortstop Jorge Mateo is already known to have drawn trade interest from teams, but there’s other players who could be available as well. Ramon Urias won a Gold Glove for his work at third base in 2022, but it seems likely the pending arrival of infield prospects like Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz could push him out of an everyday role. The Marlins would make a particularly appealing trade partner for Baltimore, as they’re incredibly deep in rotation options but have a glaring need for bats, making the two clubs a seemingly perfect match to work out a deal. Otherwise, the Cubs and Red Sox could stand to add to their infield mixes, though Baltimore may be wary of trading with a division rival like Boston. While not necessarily on the lookout for bats, a team that lost their shortstop to free agency this offseason, such as the Dodgers or Braves, might have interest in Mateo’s glove at shortstop to supplement their internal options at the position.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Correa, Infield Market, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 21, 2022 at 8:09am CDT

Following an overnight stunner of a transaction, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. What will the fallout of Correa’s new deal be?

Carlos Correa and the Mets stunned the baseball world by coming to terms on a 12-year, $315MM contract last night, and a shakeup of this magnitude is certain to have ripple effects throughout the offseason and beyond. For the Mets, the addition of Correa pushes Eduardo Escobar out of the starting lineup while potentially blocking the advancement of top prospects Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, both of whom primarily play third base. This could potentially leave Escobar on the trade block, where he would join James McCann and Carlos Carrasco as players the Mets are listening on. Baty and Vientos, meanwhile, could still have paths to playing time in the majors. Baty can play left field in addition to third, while Vientos already appeared to profile better at first base or the DH slot than the hot corner. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Mets deal either player in pursuit of upgrades elsewhere, especially considering their interest in Liam Hendriks. As for the Giants, they’ve now lost out on pursuits of Correa, Aaron Judge, and Carlos Rodon in free agency this offseason, leaving them in a troubling position going forward. Though they’ve added quality complementary pieces such as Mitch Haniger, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea, their failure to add any of the top free agents leaves San Francisco lacking the star power necessary to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. Perhaps the Giants will be able to get creative and use their unexpectedly available financial resources to acquire talent in trades, but failing that, they may have to set their eyes on next offseason’s free agent class, which also seems likely to have a great deal of star power at the top of the market.

2. Where does the infield market stand?

While Correa’s new home was the big news yesterday, the infield market has begun to heat up, with Brandon Drury landing in Anaheim on a two-year deal and Matt Carpenter headed to San Diego, just a few days after Justin Turner signed on in Boston. The Diamondbacks, White Sox, Cubs and Marlins are among the teams who could still be looking to add to their infield, and the free agent market still has some interesting options available. Jean Segura is perhaps the best infielder left on the market, though Evan Longoria, Donovan Solano, and Elvis Andrus are all still available as well. The rumor mill has been quiet regarding this group of players (though Longoria has been connected to Arizona), but with the market for infielders in a similar tier heating up in recent days, it’s possible the markets for these players could advance quickly.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Whether you missed out on yesterday’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams, or last night’s shocking Correa deal has raised new questions for you, don’t fret. Not only can you read the transcript of that chat here, but MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a live chat of his own today at 3:00 PM CT, where he will field questions from readers. You can submit a question in advance here, and the same link will take you to the chat once it’s live if you want to participate in real time.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Royals, Lyles, Braves, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 20, 2022 at 8:30am CDT

With the holiday season upon us, here’s a few things we’ll be keeping an eye throughout the day today around baseball:

1. The Royals and Jordan Lyles

Last night, reports came through that Jordan Lyles was nearing a two-year deal with the Royals. With Kansas City also having inked Ryan Yarbrough to a one-year deal, it’s possible this Lyles signing could take them out of the pitching market if completed. If that’s indeed the case, it would leave likely Hall of Famer Zack Greinke looking for a new club to play for during his age-39 season. Brady Singer, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Jackson Kowar are among Kansas City’s current options to start alongside Yarbrough and Lyles. A Lyles deal would also take yet another veteran back-end arm off of the free agent market, which has been thinning rapidly for weeks.

2. Will the Braves add another bat?

The Braves signed Jordan Luplow yesterday to bolster their outfield mix, but coming off a 101-win season and a fifth consecutive NL East crown, it would surely behoove Atlanta to do more to address the holes in their lineup. With Dansby Swanson having departed for Chicago in free agency, the Braves look set to hand the keys to shortstop to youngster Vaughn Grissom, with Orlando Arcia available should he struggle. While another bat capable of playing short could help solidify the position, the most glaring holes in the lineup are left field and DH, even after the addition of Luplow. The trio of Luplow, Marcell Ozuna, and Eddie Rosario who figure to man left field and DH combined for a troubling -2.3 bWAR in 2022. While improvements from Ozuna and Rosario are certainly possible, both players are on the wrong side of 30 and haven’t been above average with the bat in a full season since 2019. Even with Travis d’Arnaud likely to pick up extra playing time at DH following the acquisition of Sean Murphy, it seems clear that Atlanta needs another bat for the outfield, whether that comes via free agency in the form of Jurickson Profar or David Peralta, or perhaps through trade, where a number of outfielders are reportedly available.

3. MLBTR Chat with Steve Adams at 1pm CT today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting his weekly live chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit questions in advance if you like, and also use that link to check back at 1:00 and follow along live. If you can’t make it today, Anthony Franco will host a chat of his own later in the week, so keep an eye out for that one as well.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Shortstop, Smyly, Outfield

By Nick Deeds | December 19, 2022 at 8:38am CDT

After a fairly busy weekend on the MLB hot stove, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today.

1. Where can teams who missed out on Dansby Swanson turn?

Swanson’s deal with the Cubs puts all four of this offseason’s star shortstops on a new team. While each of the clubs who lost a shortstop has an internal alternative, all four would be bettered by an external addition. The Dodgers and Red Sox would be able to keep incumbent second basemen Gavin Lux and Trevor Story at their current position. The Twins wouldn’t have to rely on Kyle Farmer, likely better suited to a part-time role, as an everyday player while waiting for Royce Lewis to return from his second ACL tear. The Braves would be able to ease Vaughn Grissom in at shortstop rather than immediately thrust him into an everyday role on a playoff club. The pickings are slim when it comes to quality regulars on the free-agent market, with Elvis Andrus and perhaps Jose Iglesias the last remaining options. The trade market has more possibilities, though each comes with questions: Paul DeJong and Nick Ahmed could be had for salary relief, but they’re overpaid relative to their expected production headed into 2023 (and Ahmed is recovering from shoulder surgery). Jorge Mateo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are quality defenders but both have been further than 20% below average at the plate since 2021, by measure of wRC+. Amed Rosario is perhaps the most complete player who could potentially be had, though it’s possible the Guardians just keep him until he hits free agency next offseason before handing the keys to shortstop to their bevy of youngsters in 2024. The four aforementioned teams will have competition, as well, with the Angels and White Sox among the other teams who could still look for middle infield help this offseason.

2. Will the Cubs/Smyly deal get done today?

Reports surfaced yesterday that the Cubs and lefty Drew Smyly were close to a deal, but it’s yet to be reported as done, and the terms remain unknown. It’s possible that resolution could come as soon as today. Fellow 33-year-olds Ross Stripling’s (Giants) and Jose Quintana (Mets) both landed two-year deals, but both veterans were coming off stronger seasons than Smyly. On the other hand, the likes of Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard are among the players to recently sign one-year deals. Assuming Smyly indeed returns to Wrigley, that could take the Cubs out of the starting pitching market, as he’d presumably join Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele in the rotation.

3. Where does the outfield market stand?

It’s been a busy few days for the outfield market. Andrew Benintendi signed a five-year deal with the White Sox, Joey Gallo took a one-year deal with the Twins, and Michael Brantley returned to the Astros on a one-year pact of his own. This leaves Michael Conforto and Jurickson Profar as arguably the top free agents left, with veterans like David Peralta, AJ Pollock, Wil Myers and Andrew McCutchen also available. The Blue Jays, Rangers, and Marlins are among the teams pursuing outfield help this offseason, and each (along with the Cubs) has been linked to Conforto. Profar’s market is less clear, and one rumored suitor, the Astros, just re-signed Brantley. The trade market, where Bryan Reynolds, Max Kepler, and Daulton Varsho are among those who’ve reportedly been discussed, remains an alternative path.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Swanson, Blue Jays, Padres

By Nick Deeds | December 16, 2022 at 8:51am CDT

Coming off the heels of a day where we saw another major signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world throughout the day.

1. Swanson is the last man standing.

For a few days now, Dansby Swanson has been the last of the four star shortstops that hit the free agent market this offseason to remain available. Now, with lefty Carlos Rodon headed to the Yankees on a six-year deal, Swanson is the last top-tier free agent at any position. He’s one of just two players still on the market who ranked in the top 20 of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents at the start of the offseason, joining No. 15 Andrew Benintendi. Swanson appears to be in a good position, with teams such as the Cubs, Twins, and Red Sox, who missed out on the other top-of-market free agents they’ve pursued, potentially in the market along with the incumbent Braves. MLBTR readers voted the Cubs, Braves and Twins (in that order) as the likeliest landing spots for Swanson in a poll yesterday.

2. When will the Blue Jays look to move a catcher?

The Blue Jays have been open to dealing one of their catchers throughout the offseason, and with the free agent catching market thinning out by the day, the Jays’ catchers are the top remaining options on either the trade or free-agent markets. Most recently, Omar Narvaez agreed to a deal to join the Mets yesterday, and Mike Zunino landed with the Guardians just a few days before. With Tucker Barnhart and Austin Hedges now among the best remaining options available behind the plate, it would be no wonder if catching-needy teams began to explore a trade with Toronto more aggressively. The Cubs are in need of a catcher to pair with Yan Gomes after Willson Contreras left for St. Louis, while the Astros were a finalist for Contreras and had interest in a trade for Sean Murphy, suggesting they’re a candidate to weigh a trade with the Blue Jays as well. Perhaps the most interesting partner would be the Diamondbacks, who were reportedly interested in Murphy and have a handful of big-league ready, lefty-hitting outfielders who could provide some much-needed balance to a lineup which is overwhelmingly right-handed.

3. Will San Diego’s aggressiveness continue?

San Diego has been one of the league’s most aggressive team for years now, and that hasn’t changed this offseason as they signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year deal last week. Still, it appears possible they could make even more additions to impact the team before Opening Day. The Padres, for instance, were reported finalists for righty Chris Bassitt, who ultimately signed with the Blue Jays on a three-year deal. It was a pursuit that made sense for San Diego; despite the strong trio of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell, the back of the rotation — which currently consists of Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon — has question marks. An additional starter, such as Nathan Eovaldi or Corey Kluber, could bump one of them to the bullpen and solidify the rotation. The Friars also appear to have interest in adding a corner outfield bat, with Jose Azocar currently projected for regular work in left field. However, recent trades have depleted San Diego’s once-stellar farm system, and Roster Resource already projects the Padres over the second tier of luxury tax for 2023, complicating their path to upgrades. Still, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again he should never be counted out of making another major move to improve his club.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Giants, Cubs, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 15, 2022 at 8:42am CDT

As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things to keep an eye on today:

1. With Correa on board, what’s next for San Francisco?

The Giants have agreed to terms with star shortstop Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract, which will install Correa as the face of the Giants franchise through his 40th birthday. Correa adds immediate impact to a team that desperately needs it following the retirement of Buster Posey last year. With that being said, the Giants will need to do more if they want to return to the postseason in 2023. While the Giants are adding a likely 5-win player in Correa, they also appear unlikely to re-sign Carlos Rodon at this point, who produced 6.2 fWAR for them last season. The additions of Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling should help offset that loss, and Mitch Haniger should bolster their outfield production. Still, there’s plenty left for San Francisco to do this offseason if they want to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. While an outfield unit of Haniger, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater and LaMonte Wade Jr. (plus likely designated hitter Joc Pederson) is solid, the Giants are nonetheless reportedly looking to add another outfielder. The free agent market for outfielders has begun to thin out, but there are still some interesting players available, including Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar. Additionally, the trade market has plenty of options, with the likes of Bryan Reynolds, Max Kepler, and Daulton Varsho drawing interest so far this offseason. Aside from the outfield, San Francisco is known to be interested in a late-inning bullpen arm to pair with incumbent closer Camilo Doval. While the Giants came up short in their pursuit of Kenley Jansen, other options remain on the market, such as Adam Ottavino, Andrew Chafin, and Taylor Rogers, twin brother of Giants reliever Tyler Rogers.

2. Do the Cubs have more moves on the horizon?

Entering the offseason, there were high expectations for the Cubs, who performed surprisingly well in the second half of 2022 and were frequently speculated upon as a landing spot for a star shortstop. Flash forward to today, though, and the offseason hasn’t gone as many fans would have hoped. Correa, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts are all off the market along with potential fits at other positions, such as Christian Vazquez, Sean Murphy, and Kodai Senga. This offseason hasn’t been entirely quiet, as the club has added both outfielder Cody Bellinger and starter Jameson Taillon. While both are sensible additions to a roster with plenty of holes, it’s an open question whether these moves can even make up for the production lost by franchise catcher Willson Contreras moving on to sign with the division-rival Cardinals, much less set the Cubs up to attempt to return to the postseason. Dansby Swanson is still on the market, and the Cubs do appear to be a legitimate candidate to sign him, but he should have multiple suitors, including the Twins, who recently lost Correa. Owner Tom Ricketts pledged in August to be “very active in free agency” this offseason — comments that generally echoed his Oct. 2021 statement to fans, wherein he declared: “We commit to fielding a competitive team reflective of your unrivaled support.” If Taillon ends up as the Cubs’ most notable addition, that doesn’t necessarily line up with the expectations created by Ricketts himself in those public-facing comments.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If there’s still unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team burning in your mind, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting another chat today at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and you can use the same link to check back in this afternoon and participate live once the chat begins.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Correa Fallout, Thor, MLBTR Chat

By Nick Deeds | December 14, 2022 at 8:17am CDT

On the heels of last night’s midnight megadeal, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. With Correa signed, are Rodon and Swanson next?

The 13-year deal Carlos Correa agreed to with the Giants last night takes yet another star player off the free-agent market. Will it loosen up the market for the top remaining names? Dansby Swanson already saw his market begin to heat up yesterday, and though the Giants are now presumably out after landing Correa, he has plenty of other suitors. The Cubs are perhaps at the top of the pile, but the Twins might be aggressive on Swanson now that they missed out on Correa. The Dodgers, Red Sox, and incumbent Braves loom as additional possibilities. While Correa’s signing doubtlessly clears the field for Swanson, it may impact Carlos Rodon even more. Rodon’s market, much like Correa’s, included both the Twins and the Giants. The prevailing theory was that neither team would be willing to spend what it took to land both stars. With Correa set to suit up for San Francisco, that appears to leave the Twins, Cardinals, and Yankees as the three frontrunners for Rodon. New York is rumored to be Rodon’s preferred destination, but reports suggest a significant gap between the two sides, with Rodon known to be looking for a seven-year deal in the $200MM range.

2. Thor’s market heating up?

According to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, the market for right-hander Noah Syndergaard began to heat up yesterday. Syndergaard had a solid if somewhat uninspiring season in 2022, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The righty posted a slightly above league average 3.94 ERA alongside a 3.83 FIP in 134 2/3 innings for the Angels and Phillies in 2022, but saw his fastball velocity decline dramatically; his heater averaged around 94 mph this year, down from nearly 98 mph on average in 2019. That contributed to a strikeout rate of just 16.8%, but Syndergaard paired it with a strong 5.5% walk rate and a fairly small 19.1% line drive rate. Ultimately, even if Syndergaard isn’t the same flamethrowing ace he was in his younger days, his still-above average fastball velocity and his pinpoint command make him a worthwhile investment for a team looking to fill out their rotation.

3. MLBTR chat today

Have the recent happenings on the hot stove raised questions for you? Are you wondering about what else you can expect your team to do before spring training starts in February? If so, you’ll want to tune at 5pm CT this evening for a live chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, where he will be taking questions from readers. If you have a question you’d like to drop in advance of the chat, you can use this link to submit a question. The same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today, if you’d like to check back in and participate live.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Catchers, Market Movement, Blue Jays

By Nick Deeds | December 13, 2022 at 9:29am CDT

The hot stove was busy yesterday, and here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:

1. Catching market update

The top trade target and free agent are off the board on the catching market, as Sean Murphy is headed to the Braves, and Christian Vazquez is set to sign with the Twins. With the Guardians, Cubs, Rays, and Astros among the teams looking to land a catcher, what options remain? On the free agent market, Omar Narvaez is likely the top option, with Tucker Barnhart and Mike Zunino also getting attention. On the trade market, the only clear seller behind the plate is the Blue Jays, who are expected to deal a member of their catching trio (Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno) at some point. The Astros (Korey Lee) and Guardians (Bo Naylor) both have catching prospects who could see more playing time in 2023, perhaps supported by the addition of a lower cost veteran like Barnhart or Austin Hedges. The Astros are also reportedly discussing a Daulton Varsho trade with the Diamondbacks, and Varsho, though more of an outfielder at this point, could still support a catching tandem of Lee and Martin Maldonado with an occasional appearance behind the plate. Other teams could also see the limited impactful options on the market behind the plate and take advantage by dangling one of their catchers. If the Braves get an offer to their liking regarding Travis d’Arnaud, he could be flipped elsewhere while the team pivots to sign a less-expensive backup to Murphy. The Padres could offer up one of Luis Campusano or Austin Nola, while the Rangers have MLB-ready catchers in Jonah Heim, Sam Huff, and Mitch Garver.

2. What deals could be coming down the pipeline?

After a fairly busy day on the hot stove yesterday, there’s plenty more moves that could be made in the near future. As previously mentioned, the Diamondbacks and the Astros are reportedly discussing trade of Varsho, while the Blue Jays are looking to move one of their catchers. Aside from those moves, the Yankees still have plenty to do this offseason, even after re-signing Aaron Judge. They reportedly a preparing a formal offer to the top free agent pitcher left on the market, Carlos Rodon, while engaging in trade discussions with teams in order to fill the hole in left field. Reportedly, they have interest in a deal with the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds and have talked to both the Twins and Diamondbacks about trades. Moving down the east coast, the Marlins have reportedly made an offer to third baseman Justin Turner, who could provide the team with a much needed boost to their offense. Sticking with small markets, the Pirates, despite re-signing catcher Tyler Heineman on a minor league deal, could still add a starting catcher to their club in the near future. Barnhart is known to be a name that interests Pittsburgh.

3. The Blue Jays added a starter — is a bat next?

The Blue Jays yesterday signed Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, fortifying a rotation that already contained Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. While the move improves their rotation in a significant way, they Jays are still in the market for a left-handed bat. A trade of Jansen, Kirk, or Moreno could end up playing a part in solving this part of the roster for the Jays, but they could potentially stand to add another bat to the outfield mix as well, with the DH slot relatively vacant. Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are both options who have previously been connected to Toronto, but Andrew Benintendi and Joey Gallo are also available on the free agent market, while the trade market offers options such as Reynolds and Max Kepler.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Correa, Rodon, Trade Market

By Nick Deeds | December 12, 2022 at 9:19am CDT

Fresh off the heels of an overnight signing, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. When will the Correa market heat up?

Now that Xander Bogaerts is in San Diego and Trea Turner is in Philadelphia — both on 11-year contracts — Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson are the last two stars standing on the free agent shortstop market. With Swanson’s market potentially held up due to Correa’s lingering presence on the market, it begs the question of when Correa will sign. So far, the Giants, Cubs, and incumbent Twins appear to be Correa’s top suitors, while the Dodgers are known to be out of the Correa market. Correa’s market was likely being held up, to some extent, by San Francisco’s pursuit of Aaron Judge, but his market has remained fairly quiet since Judge agreed to a nine-year deal with the Yankees last week. It’s worth noting that in previous offseasons, agent Scott Boras has frequently been willing to allow negotiations for his top clients to stretch well into the new year in order to ensure they receive the best possible offer.

2. Rodon stands alone

With Kodai Senga set to pitch in Queens next season, the top pitcher on the market, Carlos Rodon, stands as not only the last remaining ace on the free agent market, but also the youngest option available, having just celebrated his 30th birthday over the weekend. The incumbent Giants could be moving on from Rodon, based on their late-night deal with Sean Manaea. Rodon, who is reportedly seeking a seven-year deal, still has plenty of rumored options available. The Yankees, Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, and Blue Jays have all been mentioned as having interest in Rodon, while the Cardinals may be entering the market for the ace as well. The Mets and Rangers were previously known to have interest in Rodon, as well. However, the Mets have agreed to deals with three starters (Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Senga), while the Rangers have since signed both Jacob deGrom and Andrew Heaney. It’s possible neither is aggressively pursuing Rodon at this point. With the rest of the top pitching market largely decided, Rodon may be the next domino to fall at the top of the free agent market this offseason. Chris Bassitt and Nathan Eovaldi are among the best alternative options available for teams in need of pitching who don’t land Rodon.

3. How long will the trade market stay dormant?

This year’s Winter Meetings saw a bonanza of activity on the free agent market, with over $2 billion in spending on free agents. That activity masked a trade market that’s been very quiet this offseason, and figures to heat up now that so many free agents have come off the board. The trade market is particularly flush with catchers, as Oakland has made Sean Murphy available while Toronto has fielded interest on their catching trio of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. There’s also a fair number of rumors on the outfield market, with Bryan Reynolds requesting a trade from the Pirates, the Twins drawing some interest in Max Kepler, and the Diamondbacks listening on their surplus of outfield talent. Elsewhere on the market, the Reds are reportedly interested in dealing some of their surplus of infield prospects for outfield prospects, while the Marlins are known to be entertaining offers on much of their pitching staff, including Pablo Lopez and Trevor Rogers. As teams begin to exhaust payroll space and as the supply of impact free agents continues to dwindle, trade talks figure to escalate.

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The Opener

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The Opener: Mets Spending, Nimmo Fallout, Relief Market

By Nick Deeds | December 9, 2022 at 8:50am CDT

After another day that saw a top free agent sign on with a club, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day:

1. How much more can the Mets spend?

Mets owner Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets among MLB ownership, and he hasn’t been afraid to use that to his organization’s advantage since he purchased the team in September of 2020. While this year’s collective bargaining agreement included a newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization, Cohen has yet to show much deference to that final, $293MM level. Instead, he’s given the green light to GM Billy Eppler’s front office on signing reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, lefty Jose Quintana, and set-up man David Robertson while also retaining closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo on massive contracts. Altogether, RosterResource pegs New York’s luxury tax line for 2023 at just over $335MM. That figure already has them set to pay more than $60MM in penalties — a figure higher than the entire payroll of the Pirates or A’s in 2022. With the team incurring such massive fees already, it’s fair to wonder if the Mets are approaching the limit of their payroll capacity — if there even is one. Notably, the Mets are reportedly still interesting in adding another starter to their rotation, like Kodai Senga or Chris Bassitt. As perhaps the two best pitchers on the free agent market behind ace Carlos Rodon, both Senga and Bassitt are sure to have more suitors than the Mets for their services, and that could make things complicated for New York. After all, they’ll pay a 90% tax on the AAV for any contract to which they sign Senga or Bassitt this year.

2. Where will center field-needy teams turn with Nimmo off the market?

Yesterday’s deal between the Mets and Nimmo raises more questions than those about the Mets’ payroll. Chief among those questions is where the center field market goes from here. With Nimmo and Cody Bellinger both off the market, the already thin free agent market at the position is nearly barren. Kevin Kiermaier is the top option still available, but he’s recovering from season-ending hip surgery. Those behind him, such as Rafael Ortega, Tyler Naquin, Adam Duvall, and Jackie Bradley Jr. appear to be miscast as everyday players in center, at least for any club with playoff aspirations. With the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Rockies, and Marlins among the teams in the hunt for a center fielder, it seems likely that at least some of those clubs will need to explore the trade market to find their next center fielder. The Diamondbacks are flush in center field options at or approaching the big league level, and are drawing interest in that group. Pirates star Bryan Reynolds recently requested a trade, though the Bucs apparently plan to hang onto him regardless. Minnesota’s Max Kepler is a premium right fielder with decent career grades in center, and he’s also drawn some trade interest. Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins has long been the source of trade speculation, but given the Orioles’ shift to a win-now mentality, it’d likely take an overwhelming offer for them to even consider moving his remaining three years of club control.

3. Relief market keeps rolling

The relief pitching market has remained active, as Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin both signed deals with the Red Sox, Robertson landed in Queens, Tommy Kahnle returned to the Bronx, and both Brooks Raley and Joe Jimenez were traded in recent days. As early as November, there were signs that the market for relief pitching this offseason would be a robust one, from the megadeal between Diaz and the Mets to surprisingly strong contracts for both Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero. That strong market continued to play out with these deals, as the Red Sox paid out almost $50MM between Jansen and Martin, while both Kahnle and Robertson secured guarantees of more than $10MM despite recent injury struggles. Even with these players off the board, there still remains a number of quality options with late-inning experience on the free agent market, with Craig Kimbrel, Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, and Adam Ottavino among the options left on the market.

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The Opener

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