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Jose Alvarado

Phillies Extend Jose Alvarado

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The Phillies have signed lefty reliever Jose Alvarado to a three year contract, per a team announcement. The deal keeps Alvarado in Philadelphia through at least the 2025 season, and includes a club option for 2026. Alvarado is represented by OL Baseball Group.

According to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, Alvarado will earn $9MM in each of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with a $50K signing bonus. The 2026 club option is for $9MM, with a $500k buyout. Alvarado and the club already agreed to a $3.45MM salary for 2023 to avoid arbitration, effectively making this three-year, $22MM contract a two-year, $18.55MM extension. Still, it’s a three-year contract for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Phillies will be taxed on a $7.33MM AAV for 2023, as opposed to the previous $3.45MM figure. On the other hand, this also lowers the tax figure for 2024 and 2025 seasons compared to the $9.275MM figure it would have been if structured as a two year deal.

Alvarado, 28 in May, is coming off a phenomenal 2022 season that saw him post a 3.18 ERA across 51 innings of work. While that figure is good for a solidly above-average ERA+ of 129, digging a little deeper reveals that Alvarado posted a dazzling 1.92 FIP last season, the fourth best in baseball, minimum 50 innings pitched. The discrepancy between Alvarado’s run prevention and his underlying metrics likely comes from an inflated .340 BABIP that stands well above his career .302 mark. The rare lefty who can touch triple digits with his fastball, Alvarado’s success came in large part from a 37.9% strikeout rate, which stood as 7th in baseball among those with at least 50 IP.

Alvarado’s success came from more than just strikeouts, however. As a sinkerballer, Alvarado also managed to keep the ball on the ground at and impressive 56.1% clip. Only Jhoan Duran of the Twins had a higher groundball rate while striking out at least 30% of batters faced, while no pitcher who struck out batters at a higher clip than Alvarado induced grounders at a rate of even 50%. That mix of strikeouts and groundballs is a strong recipe for success, and by signing Alvarado long term, the Phillies are indicating confidence in his ability to continue his success past his 30th birthday.

Early in the offseason, the top end of the free agent market exploded, with Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero signing early for surprising guarantees in re-signing with their previous clubs. Suarez secured $46MM from the Padres, while Montero received $34.5MM from the Astros. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, landed a $33MM guarantee in San Francisco. Those figures all outstrip Alvarado’s guarantee by a considerable amount, but the $18.55MM in new money surpasses the guarantees of free agent lefties who signed later this offseason such as Matt Strahm ($15MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), and Matt Moore, ($7.55MM). Given how Alvarado’s deal stacks up well against fellow relievers in his service bracket like Ryan Pressly, Huston Street, and Daniel Bard, taking this deal is an understandable decision for him. While there’s risk he continues to dominate as he did in 2022, the Phillies are risking that his struggles with injuries and command resurface from earlier in his career and limit his abilities going forward.

This is the second extension at the back of the Phillies’ bullpen in as many days, as the club agreed to a deal Seranthony Dominguez yesterday that could keep Dominguez in Philadelphia through the 2025 season. With these deals, the Phillies have locked up a pair of exciting, high-octane arms who can be penciled in for late inning duties alongside Strahm and Gregory Soto for the next few seasons. Having also also added Craig Kimbrel to their late inning mix for the 2023 season last month, the Phillies appear to have turned a bullpen that has long been considered an area of weakness for the club into a strength as they attempt to return to the World Series after last year’s surprise postseason run.

Phillies, Jose Alvarado Avoid Arbitration

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9:19am: Alvarado and the Phillies settled at $3.45MM, tweets Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base.

8:55am: The Phillies and left-hander Jose Alvarado have agreed to a one-year contract, per a team announcement. That avoids an arbitration hearing that had been scheduled for later today. Alvarado, a client of the OL Baseball Group, had filed for a $3.7MM figure, while the Phillies submitted a $3.2MM sum.

The 27-year-old Alvarado (28 in May) originally came to the Phils from the Rays in a three-team deal that saw Philadelphia send lefty Garrett Cleavinger to the Dodgers. It was one of the first swaps president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made upon being hired in Philadelphia and has proven to be a key pickup, as Alvarado has emerged as one of the team’s best relievers.

Over the past two seasons, the flamethrowing Alvarado has averaged 99.6 mph on his sinker and fanned 32% of his opponents while working to a 3.71 ERA. That mark is weighed down a bit by a 2021 season in which Alvarado walked an alarming 18.7% of his opponents, but he pared that number down to 11.2% in 2022 while also upping his strikeout rate to a mammoth 37.9%. This past season’s 3.18 ERA is sharp to begin with, but metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.37) feel he’s been even better.

Alvarado has saved seven games for the Phillies and piled up another 38 holds over the past two seasons, cementing himself as one of the organization’s most trusted options in high-leverage settings. He’ll join a high-octane group of relievers in the late innings under manager Rob Thomson, including righty Seranthony Dominguez and offseason acquisitions Gregory Soto and Craig Kimbrel.

The 2022 season will be a crucial one for Alvarado, who’ll be entering his final season of club control. Given his age, elite velocity, strikeout prowess and outstanding ability to miss bats (16.7% swinging-strike rate; 37.3% opponents’ chase rate), Alvarado could position himself as one of the top relievers on the market next offseason with another year like his 2022 campaign.

Walks have long been an issue for the left-hander, but Alvarado had the seventh-highest strikeout rate, fifth-best average velocity on his primary fastball (sinker) and 13th-best swinging-strike rate of the 347 pitchers who pitched at least 50 innings in 2022 (starters included). He also induced grounders on a huge 56.1% of the batted balls against him and yielded just 0.35 homers per nine innings. Command issues notwithstanding, Alvarado has the arsenal to become one of the game’s top relievers.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Requested Salary Figures For 33 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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January 13 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange salary figures in advance of possible hearings, and as usual, the large majority of players worked out one-year agreements (or extensions) for their 2023 salaries.  MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker detailed these agreements, though there is still quite a bit of unfinished business, as 33 players still don’t have their deals settled, and thus their 2023 salaries could be determined by an arbiter.

Typically, arb hearings take place in February or March, yet there isn’t anything officially preventing a team from still reaching an agreement with a player up until the moment an arbiter makes their ruling.  However, most clubs employ the “file and trial” strategy as a way of putting more pressure on players to accept agreements prior to the figure-exchange deadline.  In short, once the deadline passes, teams head to hearings with no more negotiation about a one-year salary, though clubs are typically still willing to discuss multi-year extensions.

Here are the 33 players who have yet to reach an agreement on their 2023 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salary and the team’s counter-offer.  As always, clubs (and the league as a whole) pay very close attention to arbitration salaries, since any outlier of a number can serve as a precedent in the future, thus raising the bar for both one particular players and perhaps players as a whole.  This is why teams are generally adamant about the “file and trial” tactic and taking the risk of a sometimes-awkward arb hearing, even in cases where there is a relatively small gap between the club’s figure and the player’s figure.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

Nineteen of the 30 teams have at least one unsettled case remaining, with the Rays (by far) leading the way with seven players on pace to reach hearings.  Given that Tampa Bay entered the offseason with an enormous 19-player arbitration class, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rays still have a lot of work to do, even after trimming that initial class size with non-tenders and trades.  Teoscar Hernandez’s $16MM is the largest figure submitted by any of the 33 players, while Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette have the largest gap between submitted figures, each with a $2.5MM difference between their hoped-for salaries and the numbers respectively submitted by the Astros and Blue Jays.

The total list (which will be updated as settlements are reached and hearing results become known)….

Phillies Place Rhys Hoskins On Injured List, Designate Chase Anderson

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3:54 PM: Well, it was a short-lived return for Eflin. The Phillies’ right-hander was scratched from his start tonight because of continued knee discomfort, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Philly (via Twitter). Manager Joe Girardi made the announcement not long after Eflin was activated from the injured list. Matt Moore will get the start tonight, and Eflin will presumably be further evaluated.

2:34 PM: The Phillies announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. Starting pitcher Zach Eflin has been activated from the 10-day injured list to start this evening’s game against the Diamondbacks. Also coming back from the 10-day IL is reliever José Alvarado. In corresponding moves, Philadelphia placed first baseman Rhys Hoskins back on the 10-day IL due to a left groin strain and designated right-hander Chase Anderson for assignment.

Eflin has missed around five weeks due to patellar tendinitis in his right knee. That halted a typically-strong campaign for the right-hander, who has a 4.17 ERA over 105 2/3 innings. Eflin doesn’t rack up huge strikeout or ground-ball totals, but he’s one of the sport’s best strike-throwers and a consistent mid-rotation presence. Eflin has posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36 in each of the past four seasons.

While the Phils will be thrilled to welcome Eflin back, they’re again losing Hoskins to the IL. The veteran first baseman just returned to the lineup over the weekend after missing two weeks on account of the same left groin strain. Three games later, he winds up back on the shelf. It’s an inopportune time for the Phils to lose one of their best hitters, as they enter play tonight five games back of the Braves in the National League East.

The roster shuffling almost certainly ends Anderson’s time in Philadelphia. The veteran signed a one-year, $4MM guarantee over the offseason with the hope he’d bounce back from a 2020 campaign derailed by home runs. He’s had a rough go of things for the second straight year, though, pitching to a 6.75 ERA over 48 innings between the rotation and long relief. While Anderson’s strikeout rate spiked to a career-best 24.7% last season, it has fallen to a subpar 16.3% mark this year. Anderson’s also walking batters at a career-worst 9.3% clip and he’s continued to struggle keeping the ball in the yard.

Given his lackluster 2021 results, Anderson’s a lock to pass through waivers unclaimed. He has enough service time to become a free agent while collecting the balance of his guaranteed salary. At that point, Anderson should attract interest from other clubs based on his extended pre-2020 body of work as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.

Phillies Remove Hector Neris From Closer Role

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The Phillies are shuffling up their bullpen, as manager Joe Girardi announced to reporters today that lefty Jose Alvarado will be first in line for save opportunities for now (Twitter link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Hector Neris has been the team’s primary option in save opportunities this season, but he’s been tagged for six runs over his past five outings — a span of 4 1/3 frames. Neris blew a one-run lead in the ninth inning of Wednesday’s absolute rollercoaster of a game between the Phillies and Nationals.

Alvarado had his first opportunity in the seventh inning of today’s twin bill against the division-leading Mets, but Francisco Lindor lined an RBI single up the middle to tie the game at one apiece. The Mets would go on to win in the bottom of the eighth — Ranger Suarez yielded an RBI single to Dominic Smith.

It was a particularly disheartening loss for the Phillies, who got a historic performance from starter Aaron Nola. Their ace struck out ten consecutive Mets, tying a 51-year-old Tom Seaver record, notes the Athletic’s Matt Gelb (via Twitter). The blame doesn’t all fall on the bullpen, however, as the defense made a pair of errors, and Nola himself contributed two of their three overall hits in the game.

The closer shakeup isn’t the only change the Phils have brought about in the relief corps. Earlier today, the team announced that righty David Hale was being designated for assignment in order to make room on the roster for former AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz, who’ll be returning to the Majors for the first time since 2017. The Phils also put Sam Coonrod on the injured list due to forearm tendinitis.

Philly relievers have been worth -0.2 fWAR this season while posting the third-worst save percentage in the Majors at 46.8 percent (15 for 32), notes Jim Salisbury of NBCSPhilly (via Twitter). That said, were it not for Philadelphia’s particular case of deja vu, the concern might not be quite on red alert. The Phillies bullpen, however, has sung this song before, posting -0.8 fWAR and a 7.06 ERA in 2020. Their 12 blown saves were the third-highest number in the Majors.

It’s not all doom-and-gloom, however: with a 50 percent groundball rate, Girardi’s bullpen is burning worms at a better rate than any other team in the Majors, and their 69.9 percent left on-base percentage ranks in the middle of the pack. And yet, despite their league-leading groundball percentage, when the ball does get elevated, it’s leaving the yard at a league-worst 17.2 percent home-run-to-fly-ball rate.

It should be noted that, like most bullpens, the Phillies have dealt with their fair share of injuries.  Seranthony Dominguez has been out for the year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. JoJo Romero looked like a potential breakout contributor before he, too, succumbed to Tommy John.

Furthermore, free agent acquisition and veteran high-leverage bullpen arm Archie Bradley missed 37 games, and he has yet to find his game: 4.20 ERA/5.69 FIP with an uncharacteristically-low 17.4 percent strikeout rate and uncharacteristically-high 15.9 percent walk rate. Brandon Kintzler, another would-be closing option and could-be stabilizing veteran presence, has been on the injured list for 17 days (and counting) with a neck strain.

Zooming out, the Phillies have lost four in a row, dropped seven of their past 10 and fallen behind the Nationals in the division (six games behind the Mets). Though the Phillies have entered every year of the Bryce Harper era with hopes of contention – and played like contenders for parts of those 2+ seasons – they are in danger of failing to post a winning record for the tenth consecutive season. The organization hasn’t finished above .500 since its highly-successfully five-year run as division champs from 2007 to 2011.

As for this season, Girardi’s bullpen is likely to remain fluid. Case and point, Neris found himself back in a closing situation in the second game of today’s doubleheader after Bradley served up a game-tying run in the bottom of the seventh. Neris successfully picked up the save.

Jose Alvarado To Serve Two-Game Suspension

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TODAY: Alvarado and the league have agreed to a reduced suspension of two games.  He will begin serving his suspension tonight.

SUNDAY: Jose Alvarado has been suspended three games for his part in Friday’s fracas between the Mets and Phillies, per an MLB release. Alvarado will appeal the decision.

In case you missed it, the Phillies were leading 2-1 in the top of the eighth inning when Alvarado hit Jeff McNeil on the elbow with his second pitch. With two outs and first base open, the Phillies elected to intentionally walk J.D. Davis to bring up Dominic Smith. A wild pitch moved up the runners as Alvarado struggled with his command. Smith appeared to disrupt Alvarado’s timing a couple of times in the at-bat, leading to an emotional celebration from Alvarado when he finally coaxed Smith into striking out to end the inning. Alvarado was amped, yelling at Smith and throwing his glove down. Though no punches were thrown, Alvarado’s incendiary behavior earned him an ejection.

On the Mets’ side, Smith was fined an undisclosed amount. Reliever Miguel Castro was also fined. Castro entered the game in the bottom of the inning. With one out, he walked Rhys Hoskins on back-to-back inside fastballs that were well off the plate. Hoskins took exception, and though the benches did not clear again, the game was brought to a halt as the umpires met to discuss. No other action was taken, however, and Castro was able to finish the inning.

Phillies Activate Jose Alvarado, Matt Moore; Select Odubel Herrera

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The Phillies have activated left-handers Jose Alvarado and Matt Moore from the injured list and selected the contract of center fielder Odubel Herrera, per a club announcement. The team optioned lefty Bailey Falter, righty Spencer Howard and outfielder Mickey Moniak in corresponding moves.

The Phillies went the past week without Alvarado and Moore, whom they placed on the COVID list along with infielder Ronald Torreyes on April 19. None of those players tested positive for the virus.

The most noteworthy move here is the return of Herrera, a 29-year-old who last appeared in the majors in 2019. Herrera was a standout with the Phillies earlier in his career, leading the team to sign him to a five-year, $30.5MM extension heading into the 2017 season. Two years later, though, Major League Baseball issued an 85-game suspension to Herrera for a violation of the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. The Phillies outrighted Herrera in January 2020, and he was off their 40-man roster until today.

Philadelphia’s hope is that Herrera will provide a spark in center, which has been a problem position for the club this season. The Phillies have divided playing time among Moniak, Adam Haseley and Roman Quinn, though their production has been horrid. They’ve hit a combined .114/.213/.177, which pales in comparison to Herrera’s lifetime .276/.333/.423 mark through 2,492 plate appearances.

Phillies Place 3 On Injured List

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5:13pm: No Phillies players are known to have tested positive for COVID, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

3:27pm: The Phillies announced that they have placed a pair of left-handers – Jose Alvarado and Matt Moore – as well as infielder Ronald Torreyes on the COVID-19 injured list for undisclosed reasons. The club recalled lefties Damon Jones and Cristopher Sanchez to fill in for Alvarado and Moore, while infielder Nick Maton is up for Torreyes. It’s unknown how much time Alvarado, Moore and Torreyes will miss.

Alvarado, an offseason pickup from Tampa Bay, has been a key part of the Phillies’ bullpen so far. Through 5 2/3 innings, the 25-year-old has averaged a career-high 99.5 mph on his fastball and held hitters to one run on four hits and two walks, also adding 10 strikeouts.

Moore hasn’t fared nearly as well as Alvarez. The 31-year-old returned from a one-year stint in Japan in free agency on a $3MM guarantee, and while he did claim a spot in the Phillies’ rotation, his first three starts have been a disaster. Eleven innings into his season, Moore has yielded 12 earned runs on 17 hits, including four homers, and 12 walks (15 strikeouts).

Torreyes has garnered the least playing time of the three, having appeared in three games and totaled five plate appearances so far.

In other Phillies news, the team announced that first base coach Paco Figueroa and and coaching assistant Bobby Meacham have entered COVID protocols. Infield coach Juan Castro will take over for Figueroa during his absence, while Triple-A LeHigh Valley manager Gary Jones will handle third base duties. Meacham had been filling in since third base coach Dusty Wathan went into COVID protocols last week.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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