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NL Central Notes: Steele, Votto, Adames, Miley, Velasquez

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Cubs fans received some positive news regarding left-hander Justin Steele yesterday. The 27-year-old hurler was pulled from his start on Wednesday after just three innings of work due to forearm tightess and underwent an MRI on Thursday to determine the severity of the issue. As noted by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian on Twitter, Steele described the result of the MRI as “good news” and said that the plan is for him to play catch today before determining the path forward. With that being said, WSCR-AM’s Bruce Levine notes that a source considers Steele “likely” to miss his next start, which he would otherwise be on schedule take Tuesday against the Angels.

After securing a spot in the starting rotation to open the 2022 campaign, Steele ended last season looking like an above-average, mid-rotation or better starter over 24 starts, posting a 3.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 51.2% groundball rate in 119 innings of work. Only budding Rays ace Shane McClanahan managed to post a higher strikeout rate while maintaining a groundball rate over 50% last year. What’s more, Steele has managed to build on his strong first season as a regular starter for the this season, with a 2.65 ERA that’s only bested by rotation-mate Marcus Stroman and Braves youngster Bryce Elder in the National League.

The news that his forearm strain isn’t anything serious and he’s unlikely to miss significant time is surely a relief for a Cubs team that has relied on the young lefty to carry their pitching staff alongside Stroman, with the duo representing 18 of the club’s 25 quality starts in 2023.  With that said, it seems likely that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will fill in for Steele in the event the injured left-hander does miss a start. Wesneski struggled to a 4.81 ERA and 5.65 FIP this season after earning the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with a dominant performance in spring training, leaving the Cubs to remove him from the rotation when Kyle Hendricks returned to the mound from injury.

More from around the NL Central:

  • According to MLB.com, Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has resumed baseball activities for the first time since he was struck by a foul ball in last week’s game against the Giants, landing him on the 7-day concussion IL. Adames is currently working out with the the club’s High-A affiliate rather than joining the club on their flight to Cincinnati in order to avoid the wear-and-tear of air travel, according to manager Craig Counsell. The club plans to decide whether or not Adames, who has struggled to a 84 wRC+ in 51 games this season, needs a minor league rehab assignment before he can return to big league action later this weekend. In the meantime, they figure to continue going with a combination of Brice Turang, Owen Miller, and Andruw Monasterio up the middle.
  • Sticking with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy notes that left-hander Wade Miley is making good progress on his rehab from a posterior serratus strain. While he was initially expected to be shelved for six to eight weeks, McCalvy reports that if Miley is able to avoid any setbacks he’s currently set to return from the IL after just four weeks after throwing a bullpen session on Thursday. Miley posted eight solid starts for the Brewers prior to his injury as the veteran lefty threw 41 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA baseball.
  • Reds first baseman and future Hall of Famer Joey Votto is set to begin a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville today, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Votto has been on the shelf since he underwent surgery on his rotator cuff back in August, and posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 91 games prior to the surgery. Still, he figures to share first base and DH duties with Spencer Steer upon his return to big league action.
  • Right-hander Vince Velasquez was activated from the injured list and returned to the Pirates’ rotation just last week, but immediately felt discomfort in his right elbow and returned to the injured list. According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, his current IL-stay will not be a short one, as the veteran is expected to be transferred to the 60-day IL in the near future. Velasquez had pitched well for the Pirates across eight starts this season prior to his injury, with a 3.86 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Velasquez’s return to the IL leaves the club with a rotation of Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo, Rich Hill, and Luis Ortiz.

Brewers Designate Alex Claudio For Assignment, Select Andruw Monasterio

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The Brewers announced a flurry of roster moves this morning, as the club designated left-hander Alex Claudio for assignment, placed shortstop Willy Adames on the 7-day concussion list, and optioned left-hander Ethan Small to Triple-A Nashville. Additionally, the club selected the contract of infielder Andruw Monasterio and recalled right-hander Jake Cousins.

Claudio, who was selected to the big league roster last month, recorded just one out before heading back to the minors. The veteran left-hander has pitched for the Rangers, Angels, and Mets throughout his 10 season career aside from the Brewers, and owns a career ERA of 3.59 and a FIP of 3.83 in in 348 innings of work. The Brewers will have one week to trade or waive Claudio, who seems likely to re-enter the free agent market and search for a new minor league deal under which he can act as bullpen depth for an interested club.

Adames, meanwhile, heads to the concussion IL after being struck by a foul ball while in the dugout during last night’s game. Adames fortunately avoided any fractures or other serious injuries beyond the concussion during the terrifying moment. On the field this season, Adames has struggled with the bat somewhat, slashing just .205/.292/.384 (85 wRC+) in 51 games this season.

Adames’s injury leaves the Brewers without a clear option at shortstop, a conundrum that seemingly prompted Milwaukee to select Monasterio’s contract, for whom this is his first major league call-up. Monasterio, who will celebrate his 26th birthday on Tuesday, began his professional career with the Cubs and spent time with DC and Cleveland before landing with the Brewers last season, when he slashed .271/.364/.406 in 110 games split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Monasterio has had an excellent season at the Triple-A level so far in 2023, with a solid .271/.410/.400 slash line in 42 games while playing shortstop, second base, and third base.

Small made his 2023 debut for the Brewers just yesterday, when he pitched three innings of relief in a blowout loss to the Giants, surrendering five runs. The club’s first round pick in 2019, Small has struggled in limited big league opportunities to this point in his career, and moved to the bullpen for the first time in his career ahead of the 2023 campaign. Small figures to continue providing pitching depth to the Brewers going forward until a longer-term opportunity in the majors presents itself.

Small’s departure clears space on the roster for Cousins, a 28-year-old right-hander who’s pitched well for the Brewers in parts of three seasons now, with a 2.79 ERA and 4.03 FIP across 51 2/3 innings in that span of time. While he’s largely been a solid reliever for Milwaukee, his 8 1/3 innings in 2023 have raised concerns about his command, as he’s walked a whopping 21.1% of batters faced while striking out just 18.4%. Still, the Brewers are clearly hoping he can get right and contribute to their bullpen going forward.

Brewers To Place Willy Adames On Concussion IL

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Brewers shortstop Willy Adames was struck by a foul ball while in the dugout during tonight’s game. He was taken to a hospital for testing and will stay there overnight, manager Craig Counsell tells reporters, including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The incident occurred in the second inning of tonight’s game when Brian Anderson fouled a ball into the Milwaukee dugout (Twitter video courtesy of @thecomeback). Adames was removed from the game and taken to hospital for testing. While the incident initially led to much alarm, it seems that perhaps the worst has been avoided. Counsell says that Adames has no fractures and has remained responsive all night. They expect he will be released from hospital tomorrow but he will be placed on the seven-day concussion injured list.

While the good news is that Adames seems to have avoided any kind of catastrophic injury, the club will still have to figure out how to proceed without their everyday shortstop for a while. He had been out to a slow start this year, hitting .205/.292/.384 through his first 214 plate appearances this season. But he’s coming off an excellent 2022 campaign where he hit 31 home runs and slashed .238/.298/.458 for a wRC+ of 109. He also stole eight bases and provided quality defense, leading to a tally of 4.7 wins above replacement last year, according to FanGraphs.

In terms of shortstop options on the roster, there’s Owen Miller, who has played the position a bunch in the minors but has just eight innings of major league experience there. Brice Turang is in a similar boat, with plenty of minor league experience at short but just 16 innings in the big leagues. Mike Brosseau is also in a similar situation with 19 2/3 innings of major league time at that spot. Luis Urías has more than 1,000 innings at the position and is perhaps the best option. He’s on the injured list right now but began a rehab assignment on Wednesday. He is on the 60-day IL and isn’t eligible to come off until Tuesday, when he would require a corresponding move.

How the club proceeds with its on-field plans remains to be seen. But for now, the main priority is the health of Adames after such a scary incident. More information will come on that as well but it seems like it could have been much worse, all things considered.

Revisiting A Win-Win Trade Between The Brewers And Rays

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It’s generally rare for a significant trade to happen in the first few months of a season. Teams have just finished a winter of assembling their rosters for the campaign and don’t give up and start selling so early. Some teams dealing with injuries might want upgrades, but it’s not the time of year to send out a top prospect just to patch a temporary hole in the lineup or rotation. Front offices these days seem to like to push whatever time limits they have, saving their moves until the last moments before the trade deadline, non-tender deadline or what have you.

But there are exceptions, including one prominent one that occurred just shy of two years ago. In May of 2021, the Rays sent shortstop Willy Adames and right-hander Trevor Richards to the Brewers in exchange for righties J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. The trade was rare not only because of the timing, but the significance. Three of the players involved were relief pitchers, but Adames was established as a solid everyday shortstop who still had three-plus years of control. Trades of such players are rare at any time and especially so at at that part of the season.

What’s also of note is that both teams were in contention. The Rays had made the postseason in the two previous years, going to the World Series in 2020. They were 27-19 when this deal was struck, just a game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. The Brewers had made the playoffs three straight years and were struggling a bit in early 2021, but their 21-23 record still had them in the mix, four games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

There were a few stars that aligned to make this happen. On the Rays’ end, they had a middle infield surplus that was inevitably going to lead to some kind of move. Wander Franco was the top prospect in the game and on a path to take that shortstop job from Adames. Franco was at High-A in 2019 but jumped to Triple-A in 2021 after the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in between. At the time of the deal, Franco was hitting .283/.333/.533 for a wRC+ of 126. The Rays had other prospects of note, Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján, in line for middle infield jobs. Walls actually got called up in the immediate aftermath of the Adames deal, but Franco was up a month later.

On the Brewers’ end, they were in a bit of a bind at shortstop. They had Orlando Arcia at the position for many years but decided it was time to move on. His defensive marks were okay but he had a career batting line of .244/.295/.366 at the end of 2020 for a wRC+ of 71. They opened the season by moving infielder Luis Urías to short, but that went sideways pretty quickly. He had already made nine errors in the first few weeks of the season and wasn’t hitting much either.

Those factors all contributed to bring this rare trade to fruition, which was since gone well for both clubs. Adames fortified the shortstop position immediately and has been a fixture there since. He was out to a slow start at the time of the trade, hitting .197/.254/.371 as a Ray, but he hit 20 home runs for the Brewers in the remainder of the 2021 campaign and produced a batting line of .285/.366/.521 in that time for a wRC+ of 136.

The Brewers ended up winning the division by finishing with a record of 95-67, five games up on the Cards. They just missed the playoffs last year, but that was no fault of Adames. He hit 31 home runs and slashed .238/.298/.458 for a wRC+ of 109. His speed and defense helped him tally 4.6 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, tying Corbin Burnes for the team lead. He’s still with the club this year and can be retained via arbitration for 2024.

As for Richards, he was only with the club for about six weeks, getting flipped to the Blue Jays in July alongside Bowden Francis, with first baseman Rowdy Tellez coming the other way. Tellez has also been a key contributor for the Brewers, tallying 35 home runs last year and hitting .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. Though that was very similar production to Adames at the plate, he doesn’t provide nearly as much in terms of speed or defense, leading to lesser tally of 0.8 fWAR on the year.

From the Rays’ point of view, they got more than just a few relievers, as they almost immediately started stretching Rasmussen out into a larger workload. Three of his first five outings as a Ray were of the single-inning variety, but he ramped up as the campaign went along. He eventually made 10 starts on the year, including eight to finish the season. And these weren’t just as an opener in the Tampa style. Those eight starts to end the year were all at least four innings long, with Rasmussen completing five innings in five of them.

This was a surprising development as it seemed like Rasmussen’s starting days were over, mainly due to health concerns. He had required Tommy John surgery in college in 2016, but was still drafted by the Rays in the first round, 31st overall, in 2017. They didn’t end up signing him due to concerns over that elbow, so he returned to Oregon State but needed a second TJS in August of 2017.

Despite those two surgeries, the Brewers grabbed him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He returned to the mound in the minors the following year, pitching mostly as a starter but logging just 74 1/3 innings. In 2020, with the minor leagues wiped out by the pandemic, Rasmussen was pitching out of the bullpen with the big league club. He tossed 15 1/3 innings over 12 appearances, posting a lackluster 5.87 ERA. He continued in that relief role early in 2021, logging 17 innings over 15 appearances with the Brewers with a 4.24 ERA.

It seems the Rays hadn’t given up on the pitcher they liked so much that they used a first-round pick on just a few years prior. They nabbed him in the Adames deal and, as mentioned, stretched him out as the season wore on. With pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer on the injured list and alternatives like Michael Wacha, Josh Fleming and Ryan Yarbrough posting middling results, the rotation was in need of some help. Rasmussen eventually tossed 59 innings for Tampa that year over 10 starts and 10 relief appearances. He posted a 2.44 ERA, striking out 20.9% of batters faced, walking 5.7% and getting grounders at a 51.5% clip. The Rays finished 100-62 that year, eight games ahead of the Red Sox and Yankees for the division crown, though Boston would eliminate Tampa in the ALDS.

It would have been fair to wonder at that time if Rasmussen’s success with the Rays was sustainable. It was still a small sample and his total workload in the three years since his second Tommy John procedure was light, 177 innings between the majors and minors over the 2019-2021 period. But last year, he pushed those doubts aside, tossing 146 innings over 28 starts. His 2.84 ERA came with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 46.6% ground ball rate. He’s looked sharp through three starts here this year as well, currently sporting a 2.60 ERA with his strikeout rate up to 29.2% in the early going. He won’t reach arbitration until after this season and can be controlled for three more seasons beyond that.

Feyereisen was no slouch himself. He posted a 2.45 ERA for the Rays after the deal and then tossed 24 1/3 innings last year without allowing a single earned run. Unfortunately, he landed on the injured list in early June and wasn’t able to return, eventually undergoing shoulder surgery in December. The recovery from that procedure required a four-month shutdown period, which meant the club would be without him for the start of the 2023 campaign. He was still under club control through 2026, but the Rays were dealing with a roster crunch and designated Feyereisen for assignment shortly after that surgery, with a deal seemingly already in the works at that time. He was dealt to the Dodgers the next day in exchange for minor league lefty Jeff Belge, who posted a 3.66 ERA in High-A for the Dodgers last year. He’s started his Rays tenure with three scoreless outings in Double-A this year.

In the end, the Brewers shipped out some talented pitchers who weren’t the most essential arms on their roster. Even without Rasmussen and Feyereisen, they’ve still had excellent pitching from Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and others. In exchange, they received an excellent everyday shortstop and, indirectly, a potent bat in Tellez. The Rays parted with that excellent shortstop, but replaced him easily from within and were able to bolster their rotation and overall pitching depth.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Notes: Taylor, Ashby, Adames

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Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor has a sprained elbow that will keep him out of action for the first two weeks of spring games, with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relaying word from manager Craig Counsell. There is no structural damage and Taylor will just need rest, though this will delay his ramp-up to readiness for the big league season.

Taylor has had a decent run with Milwaukee over the past couple of years, hitting 29 home runs and stealing nine bases in 213 games. His batting line over that 2021-2022 stretch was .239/.300/.448 for a wRC+ of 104. He also drew positive grades for his outfield defense, playing all three spots but primarily in center, leading to 3.4 fWAR in that time.

There’s still about five weeks until Opening Day, perhaps giving Taylor time to recover, though it will depend on how his elbow heals. If he needs to miss a bit of time, the club has a mix of outfielders that could step up. Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker seem likely to share the left field and designated hitter slots, with Garrett Mitchell perhaps getting an extended run of play in center. Right field could still go to Taylor if healthy, though the club also has Blake Perkins on the 40-man roster, as well as infielder/outfielders Brian Anderson, Mike Brosseau and Keston Hiura. In terms of non-roster options, Tyler Naquin just came aboard on a minor league deal, and there’s also prospects like Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer.

Some other notes from Brewers camp…

  • Left-hander Aaron Ashby has been sidelined by a shoulder injury that Counsell said would keep him out of action for “a couple of months.” The pitcher himself addressed the media yesterday, including Rosiak, and discussed the issue in more detail. “It’s a shoulder impingement, labral tear,” Ashby said. “That sounds really bad but everyone has these; it’s just kind of how it affects you. And in my throwing motion, it doesn’t feel great. It’s a really small tear. Then it’s the rehab process and retraining that muscle and working the proper way.” As for the timeline, “My hope is kind of middle of May,” he said. Over the past two years, he’s thrown 139 innings with a 4.47 ERA but stronger underlying metrics. His 9.7% walk rate is a bit high, but his 27.1% strikeout rate and 57.8% ground ball rate were both strong, leading to better marks from ERA estimators like a 3.95 FIP and 3.41 SIERA. Even without Ashby, the club projects to have six strong rotation options in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Wade Miley and Adrian Houser. Ashby will have to work his way into that mix once he’s healthy, though it’s possible someone else in that group needs some time off by then.
  • Shortstop Willy Adames has previously expressed his willingness to sign a long-term deal to stay with the Brewers, though he also noticed the big contracts that shortstops were able to secure this offseason. “When you see the guys, you know, getting paid, I mean, the group of guys that signed this offseason, they were elite guys and they set the bar for us, you know, the guys that are coming up,” he tells Rosiak. He goes on to say he’ll let his agency handle the business side of things while he focuses on baseball but adds that those other shortstops “really set the bar for the guys that are coming up.” Carlos Correa ultimately settled for a contract below expectations after he had two deals scuttled by concerns over his physical, but the other marquee shortstops did well for themselves this winter. Trea Turner got himself $300MM from the Phillies, Xander Bogaerts got $280MM from the Padres and Dansby Swanson secured $177MM from the Cubs. The 27-year-old Adames will make $8.7MM this year before a final arbitration season in 2024, after which he’s slated to hit the open market. His performance over those next two seasons will determine what kind of contract he could be looking at on the open market but he’s trending in a strong direction. He posted a career-high 4.7 fWAR last year in a season that included 31 home runs and strong grades for his glovework. Milwaukee fans would surely love to keep him around long-term but he seems well aware of the kind of contract that awaits him if he stays healthy and productive for a couple more years.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Brewers Reportedly Planning To Hold Onto Adames, Burnes, Woodruff Into 2023 Season

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The Brewers have told interested teams they’re unwilling to trade co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff or shortstop Willy Adames, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold declined comment on any specific individuals but confirmed generally the team plans to “build around” their group of core players “to do the best we can here in 2023” (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Burnes, Woodruff and Adames would certainly qualify as core players on the Milwaukee roster. All three are entering their penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, which raised loose speculation that a Brewers team with a mid-tier payroll could look to move them at the peak of their trade value. However, Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported at the outset of the offseason Milwaukee planned to build around their core group. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic similarly suggested last night the Brew Crew was unlikely to deal any of that trio before the start of the season.

The early stages of Milwaukee’s offseason haven’t exactly followed that script. The Brewers parted ways with relievers Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger in the first few weeks. They exercised a $10MM option on Kolten Wong and tendered an arbitration contract with a projected $11.2MM salary to Hunter Renfroe, but both players immediately found themselves in trade rumors. They’re now division rivals in the AL West. Milwaukee sent Renfroe to the Angels for a trio of pre-arbitration pitchers two weeks ago. This afternoon, they dealt Wong to the Mariners in a roughly cash-neutral swap that brought in corner outfielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker (who’s making $8.25MM next season) and arbitration-eligible infielder Abraham Toro.

Subtracting Renfroe and Wong while adding Winker, Toro and pitchers Elvis Peguero and Janson Junk (acquired from Anaheim) probably represents an early downgrade for the Milwaukee roster. Yet parting ways with productive but not elite regulars like Renfroe and Wong is certainly not as impactful as dealing away any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames would be. That’s particularly true in the case of the Wong swap, which wasn’t intended to slash payroll so much as dealing from an area of roster strength to add a potential offensive upgrade. Milwaukee has highly-regarded prospect Brice Turang as an option to step in at second base, while Toro joins Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau as internal candidates to play second or third.

The Brewers took a similar tack at last summer’s trade deadline. The Josh Hader trade was much maligned — both at the time and in retrospect — as Milwaukee subtracted one of the sport’s top relievers in the midst of a playoff race. Hader’s lofty arbitration salary and window of control dwindling to a season and a half certainly played a part in the front office’s calculus, but the deal wasn’t designed to wave the white flag on the 2022 season. The Brewers brought back a highly-regarded late-inning pitcher of their own in Taylor Rogers and added prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser to the organization. Rogers underperformed during his few months with the Brew Crew, and now-former president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged in retrospect he didn’t completely foresee how poorly received the loss of Hader would be in the clubhouse. Yet even if that trade didn’t work as intended, it’s clear it wasn’t designed to kick off any kind of rebuild.

Adames is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.2MM arbitration salary. Burnes and Woodruff are each forecasted at or just above $11MM. Those are notable figures but still significant bargains relative to those players’ productions. It’d make them the subject of strong interest on the trade market but also key contributors to a Brewers team looking to improve upon last year’s 86-win season. None of those salaries are so exorbitant Milwaukee would feel any urgent financial pressure to clear them from the books.

The Brewers opened the 2022 season with a payroll just under $132MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Resource presently projects their 2023 commitments — including arbitration estimates — around $116MM. Even if owner Mark Attanasio isn’t keen on a significant payroll spike, Arnold and his staff should have plenty of room to retain each of Adames, Woodruff and Burnes while making a few targeted upgrades elsewhere on the roster. That’s before considering the possibility of trades subtracting a few more ancillary players. Rowdy Tellez, Adrian Houser and Keston Hiura are all speculative trade candidates this offseason, and it’s not completely out of the question the Brewers field offers on Winker.

Adding another bat in the corner outfield/DH mix could be in order. Winker’s probably best suited for bat-only work if he’s on the roster, which would leave right field to Tyrone Taylor as things currently stand. Milwaukee has a few prospects who could factor into center field, with Garrett Mitchell leading the group after debuting late in 2022, but could look for a veteran complement to add some depth. The Brewers also saw catcher Omar Narváez hit free agency, meaning they could explore ways to upgrade on Víctor Caratini. First base, presently manned by Tellez, is another area where the club may try to inject life into an offense that was only a bit above league average this past season.

Dodgers, Giants Interested In Kolten Wong

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The Dodgers and Giants are among the teams looking into the possibility of a trade for Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The Mariners are also known to have checked in as part of their search for a left-handed hitting second baseman.

Wong is one of the winter’s likelier trade candidates. Milwaukee has a loaded arbitration class that has led them to explore ways to alleviate a payroll crunch. The Brewers waived reliever Brent Suter, whom they apparently weren’t looking to tender a contract with a projected $3.1MM salary. Milwaukee tendered a contract to corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe, but they subsequently dealt him to the Angels for a trio of pitchers and knocked a projected $11.2MM salary off the books.

It appears they’re planning a similar strategy with Wong. The Brewers opened the offseason with a decision on the 32-year-old infielder, as his free agent deal contained a $10MM club option or a $2MM buyout. Milwaukee exercised the option, but Rosenthal writes the Brewers are expected to deal Wong at some point this offseason.

Wong is coming off an atypical season. A two-time Gold Glove winner, he’s been one of the sport’s top defensive second basemen throughout his career. His track record at the plate has been more mixed, but he paired arguably his best offensive season and his worst showing with the glove in 2022. Wong hit 15 home runs and put up a .251/.339/.430 line through 497 plate appearances, numbers that checked in 16 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. Statcast pegged him as the game’s worst defensive second baseman, though, estimating he was seven runs below average. Wong committed 17 errors, tying a career high, and he had the worst speed metrics of his career. At his age, Wong’s best days as a defender could be behind him, although it’s worth noting he also didn’t seem fully healthy. He lost a couple weeks in June to a right calf strain and acknowledged after the season he played through leg injuries (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

The Brewers aren’t going to move Wong solely for the purpose of salary relief. Had they been completely set on cutting costs, they could’ve declined his option (or placed him on waivers in hopes another team would claim him and get them off the hook for the buyout). Milwaukee didn’t do that, but as with Renfroe, they don’t seem motivated to retain Wong at his current salary. Rather, they’ve apparently made the determination he has trade value at that $10MM price point and are looking to capitalize on that while creating additional payroll flexibility.

If they do move Wong, the Brewers could hand second base over to former first-round pick Brice Turang. Wong himself suggested after the season that Turang’s presence could inspire Milwaukee to let him go, as the young hitter is coming off a strong season for Triple-A Nashville. Turang, a left-handed hitter, is coming off a .286/.360/.412 showing in 131 games for the Sounds. Prospect evaluators regard him highly as a defender, and he’s now on the 40-man roster after being added to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Dodgers and Giants each have plenty of spending capacity. Both clubs are sure to take swings at top-of-the-market free agents, but Wong represents a solid fallback as each seeks to build out their infield. Los Angeles has seen Trea Turner hit free agency, while they declined a team option on Justin Turner. They’re possible suitors for any of this winter’s top four free agent shortstops — Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa — but Rosenthal suggests they could pursue a top free agent and a Wong trade.

The thinking in that scenario would be to rely on Wong and an open market acquisition up the middle while turning third base over to Gavin Lux. Lux has only played six MLB innings at third base, spending the bulk of his time in the middle infield. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have loved his work at second base but been mixed on his shortstop defense. Statcast ranked Lux 155th out of 163 qualified infielders in arm strength this year, meaning he’d probably be stretched at the hot corner. Los Angeles also has a top third base prospect, Miguel Vargas, ready for a big league look after a .304/.404/.511 showing in Triple-A.

San Francisco already has a left-handed hitting second base option in Tommy La Stella. He’s under contract for $11.5M in the final season of a three-year free agent deal that hasn’t worked as hoped. La Stella owns a .245/.297/.380 line as a Giant, seemingly putting his path to everyday reps in jeopardy. The Giants could also explore the top of the shortstop market, perhaps with an eye towards kicking any acquisition over to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford. They’ve been prominently mentioned as the Yankees’ top rival on Aaron Judge, though, and landing a big-ticket shortstop would probably be off the radar if their pursuit of Judge proves fruitful.

While the Brewers have been open to talks on Renfroe and Wong, there’s no indication they’re planning a broad teardown of the roster. Listening to offers on quality role players with escalating price tags is par for the course for a Milwaukee franchise that consistently works to thread the needle of remaining competitive with mid-tier payrolls. Dealing someone like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Willy Adames would be a far more impactful subtraction from the MLB roster, and it doesn’t appear GM Matt Arnold and his front office are eager to make a move of that kind.

Rosenthal unsurprisingly writes the Brewers are finding ample interest on Burnes, Woodruff and Adames but suggests they may be likelier to hold onto those players into the season and reevaluate their place in the standings closer to the trade deadline. All three players have two seasons of arbitration control remaining, and while it seems likely at least one member of that group will eventually be dealt, there’s no pressing concern for the Brewers to do so this offseason.

The Opener: Adames, Senga, Yoshida

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While folks around the world do their Black Friday shopping, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on in the baseball world in the coming days:

1. Willy Adames Likely Staying Put

Early in the offseason, there had been speculation that the Brewers might deal shortstop Willy Adames, who represented an intriguing, low-cost alternative to the top four shortstops on the free agent market. This outcome has become far less likely in recent days, however, as it was recently reported that Adames and Milwaukee have engaged in extension discussions. While no extension seems imminent, when combined with Jeff Passan of ESPN’s report that the Brewers are hoping to build around Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff this winter, the contract discussions certainly seem to indicate Adames will be playing for the Brewers on Opening Day 2023. If the Brewers have truly decided to hold onto Adames, that would further limit the shortstop market this offseason, with Elvis Andrus and Andrelton Simmons representing the second tier of options available to clubs who miss on Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

2. Kodai Senga Meeting With Teams

Right-hander Koudai Senga has drawn widespread interest across MLB as he prepares to make the jump from Japan this offseason. Recently, he has begun taking meetings with teams, including the Padres, Mets, and, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Rangers. Those three teams are far from the only ones with known interest in Senga, however, as the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays are just a few of the teams who have been connected to Senga this offseason. Senga’s preference is reportedly to play in a big market with a chance to win right now, so it’s no wonder that the teams that have been most aggressively connected to him are the larger markets in the sport. Now that the offseason slowdown that comes with Thanksgiving is out of the way, it’s possible we will begin to see Senga meeting with more teams in the coming days.

3. When Will Masataka Yoshida Be Posted?

It has been reported that NPB slugger Masataka Yoshida will be posted for MLB teams to sign this offseason, with multiple teams, including the Yankees and Blue Jays, already showing interest. The window to post players typically ends on December 5th, meaning there’s less than two weeks left for Yoshida’s Buffaloes to post him, beginning his thirty day negotiation window with big league clubs. When posted, Yoshida will join a corner outfield market littered with both talented players and age- or injury-related concerns about many of those talented players, potentially making Yoshida, 29, one of the most attractive options on the market behind Aaron Judge. Still, as with any player making the jump from Japan to stateside ball, there will be questions about just how much of his elite production in Japan will transfer over into the majors. Whenever Yoshida ends up being posted, his market will be among the most interesting to follow this offseason.

Willy Adames “Had Conversations” With Brewers About Contract Extension

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Willy Adames is eligible for free agency after the 2024 season, but he has been vocal about wanting to keep playing with the Brewers.  To that end, Adames told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy that the two sides have “had conversations” about a possible longer-term deal, and that “I let them know that obviously I want to stay” in Milwaukee.

“I’m always open to listen to what they’re thinking, and if it’s something that’s good for both sides, I’m open to it,” Adames said.  “I let my agent handle that.  I love it here, I feel good here, I feel comfortable here and I wish I could stay here the rest of my career.”

The exact timing of these talks isn’t known, though they did take place at some point before David Stearns stepped down as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations in late October.  The nature or extent of the negotiations also isn’t known, such as whether the front office and Adames’ agents at CAA Sports had only some broad discussions of Adames’ future, or if they actually exchanged some numbers or floated contract scenarios.

The fact that Stearns is no longer running baseball operations could also be a factor in any future negotiations, though Stearns remains with the Brewers as an advisor, and it isn’t yet clear how things might change in Milwaukee now that GM Matt Arnold has the reins in the front office.  While the Brew Crew has opened up some payroll space in declining Brad Boxberger’s club option, waiving Brent Suter, and trading Hunter Renfroe to the Angels, these moves aren’t necessarily indicative of a rebuild.  The Brewers have routinely looked to maintain a modest payroll while also making less-heralded and less-expensive moves to keep the team competitive.

Extensions have also been part of the strategy, with Christian Yelich’s seven-year, $188.5MM deal standing out as far and away the biggest contract in franchise history.  More recent deals for Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby were much more modest, and looked to lock up some cost certainty on both pitchers earlier in their careers, whereas Yelich already had an NL MVP Award and an MVP runner-up on his resume at the time of his extension.  Yelich was also playing on a previous extension signed back during his days as a member of the Marlins.

Adames represents something of a middle ground between Yelich and Peralta/Ashby, even if a contract extension would certainly be closer to Yelich’s numbers.  The shortstop turned 27 last September, so Adames will be entering his age-29 season if he does hit the open market following the 2024 campaign.  Adames earned $4.6MM in 2022 (his first year of arbitration eligibility), and is projected to exactly double that figure to a $9.2MM salary in 2023.

Trying to pick a comp for Adames is a little difficult at this point, since such free agent shortstops as Carlos Correa, Trea Turner (also a CAA client), Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson are all likely to reset the market with their new contracts.  Since most extension talks don’t take place until Spring Training anyway, Adames’ representatives will likely wait and see how the “big four” shortstops fare before exploring what Adames could earn on a long-term deal.

Adames has delivered plenty of pop throughout his career, especially after being traded from the Rays to the Brewers early in the 2021 season.  The shortstop has hit .256/.325/.483 with 51 homers over 1030 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform, and over his career as a whole, Adames has a 111 wRC+ — a solid number for any player, but particularly from the shortstop position.  Adames has also performed well in the field since the start of the 2019 season, at least in the view of the Defensive Runs Saved (+20) and UZR/150 (+2.9) metrics.  The Outs Above Average metric was much more down on Adames before 2022, when he suddenly posted a +10 OAA.

There is some sense that Adames might yet have more offensive potential in him, especially if he can translate his hard contract into more hits.  Adames had elite barrel-rate metrics in 2022 and an above-average hard-hit ball rate, though he hit only .238 with a .298 on-base percentage.  As he told McCalvy, “I don’t even know how to feel about my numbers.  It’s weird.  Obviously, I want to be more consistent next year and just try to eliminate those long slumps and just be better.”

Adames’ walk rate has fluctuated over the years, dipping to a below-average 7.9% in 2022.  But, the biggest fix for Adames would be to correct some of the swing-and-miss in his game.  Since making his MLB debut in 2018, only 31 qualified players in all of baseball have a higher strikeout rate than Adames’ 28.2% career number.  This is the kind of stat that could give the Brewers some pause in deciding whether or not to extend Adames, if the team’s payroll situation wasn’t already an obstacle.

Yelich’s salary will alone take up a significant chunk of Milwaukee’s future expenditures, and the Brewers also have to consider whether Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff might be extension candidates.  Both All-Star pitchers are also set for free agency after the 2024 season, though recent reports suggest that the Brewers aren’t looking to trade either Burnes or Woodruff for salary relief just yet.  It could be that the Brew Crew keeps Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames all in the fold through 2023 to take another shot at contention, and then some tougher decisions could be saved until next winter.

Waiting would also give the Brewers more time to evaluate whether or not they have a successor on hand for Adames at shortstop.  2022 first-round pick Eric Brown just completed his first year of pro ball, and Brice Turang (a first-round in the 2018 draft) is expected to make his MLB debut sometime next season.  Turang is considered to be a capable shortstop, but he might break into the Show as a second baseman or perhaps an outfielder, depending on the Brewers’ needs at either position.

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