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Seattle’s Struggling Center Fielder

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Center fielder Mallex Smith was one of the majors’ breakout players in 2018, a year he spent with the Rays, but he was unable to build on that last season as a member of the Mariners. The two teams made a notable swap involving Smith heading into last season, though neither club has gotten much major league value out of it thus far. Smith fell flat in 2019, as did the Rays’ headlining acquisition, catcher Mike Zunino.

Just two years ago, Smith was a .296/.367/.406 hitter who, despite totaling only two home runs, posted an impressive 3.5 fWAR across 544 plate appearances. The Mariners were banking on Smith logging similar production when they acquired him, but it wasn’t to be last season. While the speedy Smith did steal a career-high 46 bases after swiping 40 bags in the prior year, his numbers with the bat cratered. He ended up with a .227/.300/.335 line over 566 trips to the plate, and even received a demotion to the minors early in the season. All said, Smith’s MLB output amounted to a nonthreatening 74 wRC+ (down from 118 in the prior year) and a replacement-level fWAR of 0.0.

With the Mariners still unlikely to contend in 2020, and with Smith still under cheap control (he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until after 2022), they can afford to take a patient approach with him. The question for now is whether there’s any hope for Smith to turn into a valuable M’s contributor. Based on what he did last season, it’s hard to be optimistic.

Compared to 2018, Smith’s strikeout rate climbed by almost 7 percent, his soft contact rate jumped by nearly 6 percent, his line drive rate fell by 6 percent and his fly ball rate increased by about 5 percent. Smith’s skill set indicates he should be hitting as few fly balls as possible because his power is just about nonexistent. With that in mind, it’s no surprise he was a Statcast disaster at the plate last year. Smith finished below the league’s fifth percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average.

Smith may have been the worst hitter in the game last year – a far cry from his 2018 effort – but what of his defense? Well, it was a mixed bag. Smith earned good grades in terms of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating before 2019, but he fell off a cliff in both categories last year (minus-13 DRS, minus-9.5 UZR). On the other hand, Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric was high on Smith, giving him a plus-10 mark that ranked eighth among 133 qualified outfielders.

Even if we take OAA’s word for it, and even if we consider Smith’s elite speed, it looks highly questionable whether he’ll hit enough to turn back into a valuable contributor. Smith’s still just 26, so it’s too soon to give up on him, but this season (if it happens) could wind up as a make-or-break year for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Why The Twins Could Trade A Slugger This Winter

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While some clubs have struggled to find continuity in their outfield — the Cardinals, Padres and Blue Jays come to mind — the Twins have enjoyed a rather reliable trio in recent years. True, injuries to Byron Buxton have frequently held him out of the lineup, but the general expectation over the past three to four seasons has been that Buxton would be flanked by left fielder Eddie Rosario and right fielder Max Kepler. Since 2016, Rosario ranks fourth among MLB left fielders in innings. Kepler ranks seventh in right-field innings. Both would likely rank higher on those leaderboards were it not for occasional stints manning center field while Buxton mended from injuries.

And yet, as much of the team’s young core has been locked up on long-term deals — Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano are now all signed through at least 2023 — Rosario finds himself nearing free agency. The 27-year-old slugger agreed to a $7.75MM salary this winter and is controlled through 2021. There have reportedly been some talks between the two sides in recent years, but nothing has come together. Other key members of the Twins core remain unsigned (e.g. Buxton, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers) but are controlled an additional year beyond Rosario.

Moreover, the Twins now find themselves with a pair of corner prospects pushing for a spot in the big leagues sooner than later. Former first-round picks Alex Kirilloff (2016) and Trevor Larnach (2018) both rank comfortably among the game’s best overall prospects and both found success in Double-A in 2019. The former returned from a wrist injury to hit .283/.343/.413 (121 wRC+) through 411 plate appearances, while the latter hit .295/.387/.455 in 181 PAs — good for a 148 wRC+ that was an exact match for his mark through 361 PAs in Class-A Advanced.

Both Kirilloff (No. 9 overall on Keith Law’s prospect rankings at The Athletic) and Larnach (No. 45 at Baseball America) are 22-year-old corner outfielders with bats that have been deemed close to MLB-ready. Both would’ve likely advanced to Triple-A in 2020 had the season begun under normal circumstances, and it’d be reasonable to think that either could’ve made his MLB debut this year. Each notched an OPS north of 1.100 during brief Spring Training showings (30 PAs for Larnach, 22 for Kirilloff). Beyond that pairing, Brent Rooker posted a 139 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He’s not as highly regarded and may be more of a first base or DH type in the long run, but Rooker’s been playing left field regularly since being drafted 35th overall in 2017.

It’s unlikely that any of those prospects would’ve been plugged directly into the Major League lineup to begin the season under any circumstance, but it’s nevertheless notable that Rosario’s name crept up in trade rumblings this winter. Had a deal come together, the Twins could’ve added a one-year stopgap, turned to Marwin Gonzalez as a primary outfielder and/or given Jake Cave an opportunity to establish himself.  As it turned out, retaining Rosario only left the club with enhanced depth.

At some point in the near future, the Twins will have to ask whether they’re better off paying Rosario another raise in arbitration — though it remains to be seen how much of an increase he’ll get over his current salary next time — or whether some combination of Kirilloff, Larnach, Cave and Rooker can provide similar or greater value at a fraction of the price. Minnesota only has $55.5MM on the 2021 books as of this writing, so it’s not as if payroll is an immediate issue, but Rosario’s game isn’t without its flaws, either.

A former high-end prospect himself, Rosario has never demonstrated much plate discipline, but his swing-happy tendencies revved up to new levels last year. Jeff McNeil was the only qualified hitter in the Majors last year who swung at a higher percentage of pitches than Rosario’s 59.1 (although he didn’t chase out of the zone nearly as much as Rosario and had a markedly better contact rate on pitches in the zone). On top of that, only three qualified hitters chased balls out of the zone more than Rosario.

To his credit, Rosario has greatly improved his bat-to-ball skills, cutting his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in 2016 to 14.6 percent in 2019. But Rosario’s penchant for swinging at pitches out of the zone leads to far more weak contact than one would expect from a player who hit 32 home runs in 2019. His 89.1 mph average exit velocity ranked 123rd of 250 qualified hitters, per Statcast, and his 36 percent hard-hit rate ranked 166th in that same grouping. Despite his clear power, Rosario hasn’t ranked higher than the 34th percentile of big league hitters in terms of hard-hit rate in any of the past four seasons. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) has hovered around league average or a bit below.

This isn’t intended as a piece meant to disparage Rosario, who has proven himself to be a useful corner outfielder. He’s averaged 27.6 homers over the past three seasons, ranks seventh in the Majors in outfield assists in that time and, with the exception of a 2019 season during which he played through a notable ankle injury, he’s graded out as a reliable and at times well-above-average defender.

A rangy left fielder with a strong arm, consistently solid batting averages and 25- to 30-homer pop is a fine player — even if he comes with some on-base deficiencies. But when corner outfield options are typically plentiful in free agency and there are a pair of top-tier prospects looming in the upper minors, it’s easy to see the front office debating Rosario’s future. Rosario isn’t going to fetch a top-of-the-rotation arm in a trade given his rising price, questionable OBP and waning club control, but the Twins will still surely ponder whether their resources can be better allotted elsewhere soon — if they haven’t already.

Some may argue that Buxton or even Kepler are the better pieces for the Twins to consider moving from the current outfield group. But Buxton’s 80-grade glove and speed are harder to replace, and he’s controlled an additional year while currently earning less than half of Rosario’s salary. In terms of ceiling, he’s the highest of the bunch even in spite of his frequent injuries. Kepler’s extension, meanwhile, allows the Twins to control him for another five years and $38MM — the final season of which is a $10MM club option.

The alternative, of course, is to eventually look to package some of the aforementioned young talent to address other areas of need — likely high-end rotation help. The Twins’ offseason quest to bolster the starting staff ended up with more quantity-over-quality outcome than many expected, as the club missed on its top targets and instead pivoted to a surprising four-year deal with Josh Donaldson. Part of the reason they weren’t able to add an impact starter was the simple fact that virtually none were available in trade, but that could change down the road.

With three former top 40 picks thriving in the upper minors, two of them top 100 picks, and a long-entrenched mix of quality regulars at the MLB level, it seems inevitable that Minnesota’s outfield depth will undergo some form of reshaping in the near future. (None of this even mentions 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis — a shortstop who some feel is destined to end up in center field instead.) Of course, this is the type of logjam that rebuilding clubs look forward to eventually trying to manage, and it serves as a reminder that despite their current lack of prototypical “ace,” the Twins are well-positioned for another run of competitive years in the American League Central.

Largest Contract In Franchise History For Each MLB Team

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Here’s our list of the largest contract each of the 30 MLB teams has ever signed. Each contract is linked to its MLBTR post, with the exception of those that predate the site’s existence.

The Battle Of Pennsylvania First Basemen

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It’s no secret that the majors’ two Pennsylvania-based teams possess a couple of the most powerful first basemen in the game. In the Phillies’ corner, there’s Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the Pirates are fortunate enough to have Josh Bell manning the position. Both players are 27 years old and under club control for the next few seasons. But which of the two would you prefer on your team?

Let’s start with Hoskins, a 2014 fifth-round pick who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2017, when he only played in 50 games but still managed to wallop 18 home runs. Although Hoskins has come back to earth since then, he has still been more productive than your typical hitter. The right-handed slugger mashed 29 homers last year, and though his batting average was alarmingly low, his overall slash line (.226/.364/.454) placed him 10 percent above the average hitter by measure of OPS+ and 13 percent above by wRC+. Furthermore, Hoskins has been rather durable – he played in 153 games two years ago and 160 in 2019. He’s also under control for four more years, including one final pre-arb campaign (that’s if a season even happens in 2020).

Bell still has three years left before becoming a free agent – he’ll make a reasonable $4.8MM this season – and has been a similarly productive batter to Hoskins throughout his career. But the switch-hitting Bell, a 2011 second-rounder, truly came into his own last year – he slashed .277/.367/.569 (143 OPS+, 135 wRC+) and racked up 37 HRs over 613 trips to the plate. Also, it was the third straight year of at least 140-some games played for Bell, so he joins Hoskins as someone you can regularly count on to pencil into your lineup.

While Bell was undoubtedly the superior offensive producer a season ago, Hoskins has doubled his lifetime fWAR output over almost 400 fewer plate appearances (Hoskins is at 7.1 in 1,577 PA; Bell has put up 3.8 in 1,968 attempts). Notably, Hoskins has performed far better at first base, having accounted for minus-1 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.9 Ultimate Zone rating to Bell’s minus-31 DRS and minus-17 UZR. However, despite Bell’s defensive issues, many teams would gladly plug his big bat into their lineup. The same goes for Hoskins. For the sake of this exercise, though, you can only choose one (and remember to consider team control for the two Scott Boras clients). Who’s your pick?

(Poll link for app users)

Rhys Hoskins or Josh Bell?
Bell 60.88% (3,134 votes)
Hoskins 39.12% (2,014 votes)
Total Votes: 5,148

2020-21 MLB Free Agent Class: Third Basemen

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In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, and first basemen who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the winter rolls around in several months. We’ll continue our breakdown of the upcoming crop of free agents with a look at the third baseman who, barring extensions, will be freely available for clubs to sign. Players making the jump from professional leagues in Asia and others who are non-tendered will quite likely add to this list, but here’s how things are expected to look as of today…

Top of the Class

Justin Turner | Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

  • Justin Turner: He’ll play the 2021 season at 36, but Turner remains an elite hitter who perhaps doesn’t get the credit he deserves because he’s surrounded by so many strong hitters. But over the past three seasons, Turner has raked at a .307/.397/.519 clip with 62 dingers in 1518 plate appearances — including a .290/.372/.509 mark in 2019. Turner has been at least 20 percent better than a league-average hitter each season since 2013, and while he’s not the defensive powerhouse he once was, Statcast still credited him with 4 Outs Above Average at the hot corner. Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-6.7) were more bearish, but it’s unlikely that any team would consider him a major liability at the position. It’s also worth remembering that Turner was dogged by hamstring and ankle issues in 2019 even though he avoided an IL stint, so better health could lead to better ratings. Even if he’s an average or below-average glove at third base at this point, his offensive excellence is inarguable. Under normal circumstances he’d be a surefire qualifying offer candidate, but we don’t yet know how the shortened (or canceled) season will impact those decisions.

Other Potential Regulars

Jake Lamb | Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

  • Jake Lamb: Shoulder surgery torpedoed Lamb’s 2018 season, and he was hobbled by a quadriceps injury that cost him nearly half the season in 2019. However, Lamb clubbed 59 homers for the D-backs as their primary third baseman in 2016-17. He’ll be heading into his age-30 season when he hits the open market and won’t see much in the way of competition in terms of prime-aged third base candidates. His struggles against left-handed pitching make it tempting to label him platoon player — he’s a career .169/.275/.319 hitter against southpaws — but Lamb still has only 440 career PAs against lefties. His .259/.345/.468 line against right-handed opponents, meanwhile, is solid. And his 130 wRC+ against righties in that aforementioned two-year peak shows how good can be when he’s at his best.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera: A late Herculean surge with the Nationals (145 wRC+ in 146 plate appearances) salvaged what was shaping up to be a dismal campaign for the veteran switch-hitter. No one is expecting that level of production, but Cabrera could be an average or slightly better bat with third-base defense that graded out well per both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. He’ll be 35 by the time the 2021 campaign gets underway, so perhaps some teams will view him as a part-time option. Cabrera has tallied at least 514 plate appearances in each of the past nine seasons, though.

Second Basemen with Experience at Third Base

  • DJ LeMahieu: It was no surprise to anyone that LeMahieu topped our list of next year’s second basemen after a monster Bronx debut season, but might another team in need of help at the hot corner consider playing him there? The Yankees trotted LeMahieu out for an even 400 innings of defense at third base — the first time in nearly five years that he’d slotted in there. Despite having tallied just 245 innings there previously, the results were solid (break-even in terms of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating; +2 Outs Above Average), which could create some optimism among his suitors. Sterling glovework at second base has long been one of the most compelling aspects (if not the most compelling aspect) of LeMahieu’s game, so some may be wary of moving him off the position. But if he’s able to recreate his 2019 thunder at the plate, then he’ll be providing ample value even if he’s not playing plus defense.
  • Tommy La Stella: It’s perhaps easy to forget about La Stella’s budding breakout that was interrupted when he fractured his leg upon fouling a ball into his shin. But prior to that grisly, tough-luck injury, La Stella was mashing like never before: .295/.346/.486. Through 321 plate appearances, the former Cubs utilityman had swatted more dingers (16) than he had in his entire career (10 through 947 PAs in 2014-18). Like LeMahieu, La Stella has been primarily a second baseman but saw sparing action at the hot corner in ’19 (234 innings). La Stella has virtually even platoon splits in his career, though, and a team convinced of his ability to handle third base could look at him as a low-cost option. If nothing else, a familiar multi-position role with some occasional reps at third seems eminently reasonable.

Part-Time Veterans

  • Adeiny Hechavarria: The defensive standout has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he’s a highly regarded defender at shortstop who has considerable experience at third base. He’s a nice utility option.
  • Eric Sogard: Like Hechavarria, Sogard has more limited experience at third base but a solid defensive reputation at the middle infield spots. His surprising power output with the Blue Jays tapered off following a trade to the Rays, but the affable Sogard is popular among fans and teammates alike and should be considered a useful utility player.
  • Brad Miller: The versatile Miller is something of a “jack of all trades, master of none,” but his 2019 campaign was a productive — albeit in a tiny sample of 170 plate appearances. He’s struggled to produce at a consistent level, but Miller keeps landing big league gigs as a bench piece.
  • Zack Cozart: Injuries have decimated the former Reds All-Star over the past few years. The Angels traded away their 2019 first-round pick (Will Wilson) to rid themselves of the final season of Cozart’s deal. He hasn’t been a productive player since 2017, but he was worth five wins above replacement back in 2017.
  • Jed Lowrie: The switch-hitting veteran has more than 1000 innings of experience at the hot corner, but he’s a total wild card after missing nearly the entire 2019 season. Even before the MLB shutdown, Lowrie was expected to miss Opening Day, and the Mets had no timetable for his return.

Club Options to Watch

  • Both Todd Frazier ($5.75MM club option, $1.5MM buyout) and Jedd Gyorko ($4.5MM club option, $1MM buyout) have been infield regulars for much of their careers and have ample experience at third base (almost exclusively so in Frazier’s case). But both options are so affordable that there’s virtually no way either would hit free agency if he performed well enough to be considered a regular option at third base (or any other position). If either player’s option is bought out, it’s unlikely a new team would consider him for an everyday role in 2021.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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The Padres keep trying to find the perfect roster mix to supplement their rising young talent.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

As usual, the Padres engaged in quite a lot of eyebrow-raising chatter this winter. There was talk at various points that the club was chasing trades involving Mookie Betts (see here), Kris Bryant (see here), Francisco Lindor (see here), Nick Senzel (same link), and Starling Marte (see here). In free agency, the Friars looked at veteran southpaws Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel … and also considered another in David Price as part of various trade scenarios.

There’s no new star in San Diego, but that probably wasn’t necessary for an organization that last year welcomed Manny Machado and oversaw the emergence of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack. It might have been nice to announce a new, long-term pact with Tatis. The San Diego organization built up some good will by promoting him to start the 2019 season — that’ll also ensure a full season of 2020 service even if the campaign isn’t played — but couldn’t make apparent headway in talks this winter.

While committing distant future money to a franchise star would’ve been possible, the Friars didn’t have much near-term payroll space to work with. The Padres tried but failed to deal Wil Myers to achieve greater flexibility, so for now they’re left saddled with the remaining three years and $61MM on his heavily back-loaded contract. After a bunch of non-tender decisions and some mostly modest salary additions, the team is sitting at about $144MM in cash payroll for 2020.

So, what did Padres GM A.J. Preller accomplish in his sixth offseason at the helm of baseball operations? Much of the work was in a set of four interesting swaps with three value-focused trade partners.

Most of all, Preller swung an outfield overhaul. Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham each came over as part of multi-player trades that defy characterization as “buy” or “sell”-side transactions for either the Padres or their respective trade partners in Tampa Bay and Milwaukee.

Pham is only controlled for two more seasons, but he could contribute a ton of excess value if he keeps hitting. He’ll replace Hunter Renfroe, one of the players for whom he was traded. Grisham brings a lot more long-term control and some real promise but isn’t nearly as established. He’ll slot into the mix at all three outfield spots, perhaps pairing with minor-league signee Juan Lagares to handle much of the work in center. Otherwise, the Friars will shrug and hope for the best from Myers and oft-injured youngster Francy Cordero. Another young left-handed slugger, Josh Naylor, could also factor into the mix. With a strong showing in the upper minors (if a season is played there), well-regarded prospect Taylor Trammell could force his way into the picture at some point.

As is the case for much of the rest of the San Diego roster, it’s possible to imagine the outfield unit playing at quite a high level … or being rather a marginal outfit. There’s decidedly more star power in the infield, though perhaps the outlook comes with the same sort of qualifications.

Barring injury, the left side of the infield will be occupied almost exclusively by aforementioned wunderkind Tatis and top-dollar star Machado. Greg Garcia is the primary reserve/fill-in option, with Ty France and newcomer Jake Cronenworth also on the 40-man. Francisco Mejia and Austin Hedges remain entrenched behind the dish, with hopes one or both will make strides in 2020. At first base, the Pads may ultimately have to decide whether to reduce the time of the disappointing Eric Hosmer. It’s arguable that the best alignment would involve a time share between Hosmer and Myers, however hard that would be to swallow given each former Royal’s weighty contract.

Ian Kinsler’s decision to elect retirement after a tough 2019 showing unexpectedly cleared some salary and seemed to pave a path to regular at-bats for top prospect Luis Urias — but the club obviously didn’t fully believe in him as a replacement. He ended up departing in the Grisham swap. The Padres gave up a bit of young talent to take over the final season of arbitration eligibility of Jurickson Profar, a formerly elite prospect (from back when he and Preller were with the Rangers organization) who was a mostly uninspiring performer in 2019. He’ll battle at second base with minor-league signee Brian Dozier. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that situation ultimately end up in a timeshare (with Garcia, France, and/or Cronenworth potentially involved).

Those aforementioned outfield moves spelled the end of the line for Manuel Margot in San Diego. He ended up being shipped out along with 2019 second-rounder Logan Driscoll in order to acquire reliever Emilio Pagan. The late-blooming Pagan brings highly appealing K/BB numbers and a big swinging-strike rate out west, but it seems rather curious that he will now be on his fourth MLB team in four seasons. Pagan carried an unsustainable strand rate (94.8%) to reach a 2.31 ERA last year and has been rather prone to the long ball (1.58 per nine for his career).

The Padres have visions of Pagan joining closer Kirby Yates to form a powerful combination of late-inning righties. Completing the high-leverage mix is southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who rode his second-half surge to a much bigger-than-expected contract and a surprising return to San Diego. The 31-year-old was flat-out dominant down the stretch, but it was still stunning to see the Friars go to a four-year guarantee to lure him. Further bullpen-building came in the form of more modest two-year pacts to bring back Craig Stammen and add interesting NPB returnee Pierce Johnson, who whiffed 91 hitters through 58 2/3 innings en route to a 1.38 ERA with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan last season.

The depth seems like it’ll be necessary. Young hurlers Andres Munoz and Reggie Lawson were each lost to Tommy John surgery in camp. The Padres can still turn to a host of other young arms, but most come with questions. Southpaw Matt Strahm (who has much better career numbers as a reliever) and converted infielder Javy Guerra seem likely to join the ’pen once the season begins. Luis Perdomo, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, Ronald Bolanos, David Bednar, Jose Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Gerardo Reyes and sixth starter Cal Quantrill are all 40-man options as well — some with real upside — but you’d have a hard time arguing any as sure things.

That leaves a rotation mix that mostly went untouched over the winter. The Friars did bring in Zach Davies while parting with Eric Lauer as the other half of the Grisham/Urias swap. It’s too much to expect a repeat of his 2019 showing (31 starts of 3.55 ERA ball), but Davies should be a solid part of the staff. The same holds true of Joey Lucchesi, who returns along with the upside-laden trio of Paddack, Garrett Richards, and Dinelson Lamet to form quite an interesting rotation mix. It would be even more exciting to see this group in a full season, when it could be supplemented by top prospects MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino, but that’s all coming soon enough.

2020 Season Outlook

It’s awfully tough to look at this roster and see a threat to the powerhouse Dodgers. But all bets are off in a short-season format, which is likely all we’ll get if the 2020 season is played at all. And there’s reason for the Padres to hope they’ve done enough at least to compete for a Wild Card spot, though it’s a crowded NL field and it’ll be tough to make mid-season improvements given the (seeming) lack of payroll breathing room.

How would MLBTR fans grade the Padres’ offseason dealings? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Grade the Padres' offseason:
B 53.39% (1,338 votes)
C 28.09% (704 votes)
A 10.42% (261 votes)
D 5.27% (132 votes)
F 2.83% (71 votes)
Total Votes: 2,506

2020-21 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

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Considering the circumstances, we figure to be in for an unusual free agency period in Major League Baseball next offseason. We’ve already run down the most notable catchers, shortstops, and first basemen who are slated to reach the open market once the winter rolls around in several months. We’ll do the same here with second basemen (players’ listed ages are for the 2021 campaign) …

Top Of The Class

  • DJ LeMahieu (32): Some felt the Yankees made a really nice value move when they inked DJLM, but nobody predicted a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP voting. It remains to be seen whether LeMahieu can repeat anything like his whopping 2019 output at the plate, but he has long been a high-end defender.
  • Jonathan Villar (30): Another player with a bit of a rollercoaster trajectory, Villar has actually matched LeMahieu in career batting output (97 wRC+). And Villar was quite good in 2019, racking up 4 fWAR despite below-average defensive grades by turning in 162 games of quality hitting and league-leading legwork on the bases.
  • Kolten Wong (30): It all came together in 2019 for the longtime Cardinals second bagger, who contributed solid work across the board. With a repeat showing, the club is likely to exercise its $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout).

Other Regulars (based upon 2019 playing time)

  • Cesar Hernandez (31): Even at his best, Hernandez has never been anything close to an overwhelming offensive performer. But he does have a ~3 WAR established ceiling and has received fairly regular playing time over the past five seasons.
  • Jurickson Profar (28): The once- super-elite prospect has made it through major injury issues but has never fully come around at the MLB level. 2020 could be something of a make-or-break season.
  • Jonathan Schoop (29): Though he rebounded from a down 2018, Schoop wasn’t the 30+ homer slugger of yore. Defensive metrics are split on his fielding ability.

Top Timeshare Candidates

  • Asdrubal Cabrera (35): After a rough start to the 2019 season, Cabrera caught fire down the stretch with the Nats. He’s unlikely to be an everyday guy come 2021, but is a trusted veteran who could still be seen as an important contributor.
  • Daniel Descalso (34): He’s all but certain to be paid a $1MM buyout rather than playing on a $3.5MM club option, barring a huge bounce back after a terrible first season with the Cubs.
  • Brian Dozier (34): It would be a surprise if Dozier returns to his levels of quiet stardom after two-straight down years. But he could have a chance to shine in San Diego if Profar falters.
  • Dee Gordon (33): It just hasn’t worked out for Gordon in Seattle. The M’s are sure to pay him a $1MM buyout instead of exercising a $14MM club option. But the speedy veteran could still have another act left.
  • Howie Kendrick (37): The bat is still legit, though it’s fair to wonder whether the glove still plays at second base. Odds are he’ll be seen mostly at an option in the corners going forward.
  • Jed Lowrie (37): It’s anyone’s guess how Lowrie will look when he finally gets back on the field.
  • Brad Miller (31): He surged back to life in a short 2019 run with the Phillies … but consistency has proven elusive over the years.
  • Eric Sogard (35): His power outburst with the Blue Jays faded after a mid-season trade to the Rays, but Sogard is still being paid to function as a significant contributor in his latest stint with the Brewers.

Others

Adeiny Hechavarria and Freddy Galvis can be considered candidates at second base, though their real value lies in their ability to handle shortstop. Bounceback candidates include Eduardo Nunez and Chris Owings.

Dr. Anthony Fauci On Possibility Of 2020 MLB Season

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Yesterday, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said that broader considerations would dictate whether and when the league is able to resume play in 2020. He expressed a commitment not only to the safety of those involved directly in staging ballgames, but to relaunching “in a way that will not impact the public health situation adversely.”

Whether that will be possible remains to be seen, but experts aren’t ruling out the possibility of some kind of return. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key voice on the coronavirus pandemic, addressed the potential of baseball resuming play this summer in a podcast appearance with Peter Hamby (who also wrote things up at Vanity Fair).

There’s certainly plenty of important information to digest from the interview, but we’ll focus on some of the aspects relating directly to the game of baseball. Fauci wasn’t willing to give a strong prediction as to whether we’ll see MLB and other sports this year — largely due to the vast remaining uncertainty in dealing with COVID-19. Per Fauci, the feasibility of holding sports is “really going to depend on what actually evolves over the next couple of months.”

Manfred says that Major League Baseball wants to be a key “part of the [economic] recovery … and sort of a milestone on the return to normalcy.” He has thus far backed that up with creative planning efforts (as we discussed in a recent YouTube video) and, far more importantly, with rapid engagement in a critically important study designed to assess the true spread of the disease throughout the United States.

Fauci envisioned a scenario where indeed baseball is able to launch a season by the middle of the summer — sans live fans, of course. “If you could get on television, Major League Baseball, to start July 4,” Fauci suggested, ” … Well, I think you’d probably get enough buy-in from people who are dying to see a baseball game. Particularly me. I’m living in Washington. We have the World Champion Washington Nationals. You know, I want to see them play again.”

Getting there won’t be easy. Fauci spoke of “proposals” involving gathering and isolating players and others associated with putting on the sporting event “in big hotels” near playing sites. It would be necessary to utilize such isolation with frequent testing and other efforts to “make sure they don’t wind up infecting each other or their family.”

If that all sounds familiar, it certainly seems to dovetail with what we’ve heard from reports on MLB efforts to plan out a possible 2020 campaign. The league is known to have consulted with Fauci and other top experts. It’s an approach that carries some obvious (and probably some non-obvious) risks and limitations. But it’s at least somewhat encouraging that Fauci seems to believe it’s conceptually possible. And as he says, “it might be better than nothing.”

Why The Gerrit Cole Trade Wasn’t A Total Bust For The Pirates

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We’re past the two-year anniversary of a trade that has made a significant impact on the Pirates, the Astros and perhaps Major League Baseball as a whole. In January 2018, the Pirates sent right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Astros for a package consisting of righties Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, third baseman Colin Moran and outfielder Jason Martin.

Was the blockbuster worth it for Houston? Sure. Cole absolutely dominated in their uniform for two years and helped them to an American League pennant last season. But he’s now a member of the Yankees, who signed him to a record contract worth $324MM over nine years last winter. Has it been worth it for Pittsburgh? Debatable. Feliz and Moran haven’t amounted to much more than replacement-level players in the majors, while Martin has failed to register solid numbers at the Triple-A level. There’s at least one silver lining in Musgrove, who has emerged as a quality starter for the Pirates.

Let’s start by acknowledging that now-former Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was hamstrung by the team’s low budget. As a result of owner Bob Nutting’s unwillingness to commit a relatively enormous amount to any player (to this day, the biggest contract the Pirates have given out belongs to Jason Kendall, who signed a six-year, $60MM deal 20 years ago) there was no way the Pirates were going to be able to extend Cole – a Scott Boras client. And Cole, although a former No. 1 overall pick who logged ace-like numbers at times in a Pirates uniform, was not the Cy Young-level hurler he is now. Cole ate up 203 innings in his final year in Pittsburgh, but he also recorded a 4.26 ERA/4.08 FIP. No question that’s a useful output, but the run prevention was nowhere close to elite.

Whether or not you want to rail against the overall return the Pirates got for Cole, it’s clear they received at least one valuable player in Musgrove. Now 27 years old, Musgrove showed well in Houston from 2016-17 and has held his own in Pittsburgh during his two seasons there. He registered a 4.06 ERA/3.59 FIP in 115 1/3 innings in 2018 and put up similar numbers last year. Musgrove’s 4.44 ERA across 170 1/3 frames doesn’t look amazing, but he was near the top of the league in other important categories. He ranked 22nd in the majors in K/BB ratio (4.03), 24th in FIP (3,82), 30th in fWAR (3.3) and 34th in xFIP (4.31; that tied Madison Bumgarner, whom the Diamondbacks signed to a five-year, $85MM contract in free agency).

None of this is to say that the Pirates emerged from the Cole trade in great shape. They won 69 games last season and haven’t been a playoff team since 2015, after all, but their recent struggles certainly haven’t been the fault of Musgrove. Going forward, he’ll make a rather affordable $2.8MM this season – his third-last arbitration-eligible campaign – and could continue to improve his stock before his team control expires. Just how long Musgrove will stay a Pirate is in question, though; depending in part on whether they return to contention and if he’s amenable to an extension, the Bucs could decide Musgrove’s expendable if they’re not willing to make a long-term commitment to him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays’ quest to overhaul their pitching staff led to one of the biggest signings in franchise history.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Shun Yamaguchi, SP/RP: Two years, $6.35MM (plus $1.27MM to the Yomiuri Giants as a transfer fee)

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The 2019-20 offseason represented a turning point in the Blue Jays’ rebuild process, as Toronto cast a very wide net in search of upgrades both large and small.  The Jays were linked to just about every available pitcher, and also looked into such notable position player trade targets and free agents as Francisco Lindor, Yasmani Grandal, Didi Gregorius, Mike Moustakas, and former Toronto favorite Edwin Encarnacion.

It was a big push from a team coming off three consecutive losing seasons, and one that didn’t necessarily announce an intent to be a full-on contender in 2020.  Back in February, Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro stated that even a “.500 [record] would be a big step forward” for a club that only went 67-95 last season, yet it’s clear that management has a lot of faith that its young core of players can get the Blue Jays back into the playoff hunt sooner rather than later.

This set the stage for Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM contract.  It was the seventh-richest contract given to any free agent this winter in terms of total dollars, and it also marked the third-largest deal the Jays have given to any player.  It was a big commitment to make to a 33-year-old pitcher with a lengthy injury history, though Ryu brings genuine top-of-the-rotation ability when healthy.  Ryu’s 182 2/3 innings pitched in 2019 was the second-highest total of his career, and he finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting after posting a 2.32 ERA, 6.79 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9.

While $80MM is a sizeable expenditure for any team, Ryu’s deal is one the Blue Jays could somewhat comfortably afford to make, given their lack of long-term payroll commitments.  By this token, it could be argued that the Jays could have made another splashy signing (or trade) beyond just Ryu, though the counter to that argument is that Toronto perhaps still wants to see what it truly has in its young players.  As promising as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio are, the quartet has combined for only 418 Major League games — the four players have only appeared in the same starting lineup eight times.  Between this lack of experience and the fact that the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen, or Rowdy Tellez have yet to break out, it makes sense that the Jays didn’t want to go overboard in building around a foundation that may not yet be entirely stable.

That said, some extra willingness to build was required given the escalating prices in free agency, and the simple fact that the 2019-20 offseason moved at a much quicker pace than the previous two winters.  As noted by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi back in February, GM Ross Atkins essentially changed tactics midway through the offseason, as failing to adapt to the changing marketplace would have left the Jays without the pitching help they so badly needed.

Ryu was the biggest addition, though Tanner Roark brings some more innings-eating veteran experience to the rotation.  The Blue Jays also went overseas to add pitching, signing Shun Yamaguchi to a two-year contract after the right-hander was posted by the Yomiuri Giants.  At the time of the COVID-19 shutdown, Yamaguchi was being targeted for the bullpen, though it could have been something of a long relief or swingman role to keep him stretched out for possible starts.

Between these three signings and Chase Anderson (acquired in a trade with the Brewers in early November), Toronto’s pitching situation looks far more solid than it did last season, when injuries and inexperience resulted in the Jays getting just 711 1/3 innings from their starting pitchers, the third-lowest total in baseball.  None of Roark, Anderson, Yamaguchi, and Matt Shoemaker are controlled beyond the 2021 season, leaving a lot of flexibility within the rotation for younger pitchers to eventually move into the picture — most prominently, one of the sport’s best pitching prospects in Nate Pearson.

Yamaguchi’s availability in the bullpen helps strengthen a relief corps that also added Anthony Bass, A.J. Cole, old friend Marc Rzepczynski, and Rafael Dolis to the mix.  Dolis was the only MLB signing of that trio, inking a $1MM deal to return to North America after four dominant years pitching out of the Hanshin Tigers’ bullpen.

Perhaps the biggest reliever-related headline for the Blue Jays was a move that didn’t happen, as Ken Giles is still in a Toronto uniform.  The closer was widely expected to be dealt over the winter, though a lack of early interest seemed to carry through the entire offseason.  It could also be that the Jays changed their view on trading Giles after the Ryu signing raised expectations for a competitive season, or at worst, the club figured they could still move him at the trade deadline.

Now, of course, that plan has been entirely altered since we don’t know when a 2020 trade deadline could fall, or whether the 2020 season will be played whatsoever.  If the season is indeed cancelled, Giles will still be eligible for free agency as scheduled, leaving the Jays in danger of losing him for nothing.  (The Jays could receive a draft pick if Giles rejected a qualifying offer, or Giles could even accept a QO and stay with Toronto, though it remains to be seen if the club would want to pay Giles such a hefty one-year salary.)

Given the flirtations with the likes of Lindor and Moustakas, Travis Shaw could certainly be seen as an underwhelming choice as the Blue Jays’ most notable new position player.  Shaw is coming off a terrible 2019 season, though the Jays are betting that year was an aberration considering Shaw’s track record over his previous four MLB campaigns.  Shaw will essentially replace Justin Smoak as the regular first baseman, though Shaw’s ability to play third base and second base gives manager Charlie Montoyo the ability to shuffle his lineups.

Multi-position versatility was a stated priority for Atkins heading into the offseason, which also led to Joe Panik being brought aboard to add depth at shortstop and second base.  Except for Tellez, the catchers, and maybe Guerrero (who could yet eventually be a first base option), every player on the Blue Jays’ projected roster can play multiple positions, be it an outfielder who can play at least two positions on the grass, or a player like Biggio who could be used all over the diamond.

The catch, however, is that while the Jays have several players who can handle multiple positions, it’s still an open question as to how many can play well at any position.  Shaw and Randal Grichuk are coming off rough seasons, while Panik and Brandon Drury have been replacement-level players or worse in each of the last two seasons.  As mentioned earlier, the developmental path of so many of Toronto’s young players is still an unknown, so it doesn’t create much of a safety net if the veterans all continue to struggle.

Of the bigger-name position players on the Jays’ target list, Moustakas is perhaps the one that seemed reasonably closest to becoming a reality.  Grandal would likely have only been heavily pursued if the Jays had found a good offer for Jansen or Reese McGuire, Toronto’s plan to have Gregorius play second base might not have appealed to the long-time shortstop, and there isn’t much evidence that the Jays’ pursuit of Lindor amounted to anything besides due diligence.  (Acquiring Lindor would have also significantly accelerated the Blue Jays’ timeline for contention, since Lindor is only under contract through the 2021 season.)

With Moustakas, however, the Jays were reportedly the second-highest bidder, offering the infielder a three-year, $30MM deal that far surpassed the one-year deals Moustakas had been forced to settle for in the last two free agent markets, and also topped MLBTR’s projected two-year, $20MM contract for him this winter.  Considering the Reds went above and beyond all expectations to sign Moustakas to a four-year, $64MM deal, it’s hard to fault the Blue Jays for being outbid by such a massive splurge.  Still, if not Moustakas himself, the Jays’ lineup would look a lot more solid had one more proven, above-average hitter been brought into the mix to augment the still-developing younger hitters, rather than just hoping that Shaw can bounce back.

2020 Season Outlook

If some games are played in 2020, there’s a chance a shorter season could be to the Jays’ benefit in terms of actual on-field results.  Theoretically, a younger roster could be more suited to handling a compacted schedule with many unusual aspects (regular double-headers, games in minor league or Spring Training parks, etc.) that could be a harder adjustment for a veteran team that is more set in its ways.  Also, while it didn’t seem likely that the Blue Jays could hang with the Yankees or Rays over 162 games, keeping pace over something like an 81-game sprint isn’t as far-fetched.

With so many question marks still surrounding the roster, however, the threat of a shortened or altogether canceled 2020 season is particularly tough on the Blue Jays.  Not only could all of these questions be kicked down the road into 2021, a reduced or lost season also wipes out invaluable development time for youngsters at both the MLB and minor league levels, and erases the year that the Jays could have most directly counted on as a prime Ryu season.

One significant question that was answered this offseason is that we now have evidence that the Jays are willing and able to make an expensive impact in the free agent market, which was a criticism often directed by Toronto fans towards both club ownership and the Shapiro/Atkins regime.  It would have been easy for the front office to respond to the market’s rising price tags by stepping back and making only lower-level signings since the Jays were still in a rebuild phase, yet the team felt the time was right to make the big strike.  The Ryu contract is a hint at future aggressiveness down the road, when the Blue Jays are even better positioned to challenge for the postseason.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Blue Jays' offseason moves?
B 59.26% (1,392 votes)
C 20.99% (493 votes)
A 13.67% (321 votes)
D 3.45% (81 votes)
F 2.64% (62 votes)
Total Votes: 2,349

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