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MLBTR Originals

MLBTR Originals

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Rounding up the original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff over the last two weeks…

  • This offseason’s free agent market has been humming along at a respectable pace, at least in comparison to last winter’s historic lack of activity.  Jeff Todd took a look at the signing action thus far, in regards to which members of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had found deals.  At the time of Jeff’s post on December 18, sixteen of the 50 had signed, and six more names (Andrew Miller, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Cahill, Joakim Soria) have also since landed new contracts.
  • Along those same lines, Mark Polishuk polled the MLBTR readership to ask which of the seven remaining unsigned members of our Top 10 free agents would be the next to ink a deal.  Yasmani Grandal was the top choice with just over 25% of the vote, though it was fourth-place finisher Michael Brantley (who netted 14.89% of the vote) who ended up signing soonest, agreeing to a two-year deal with the Astros barely 24 hours after the poll was posted.
  • Connor Byrne also put a question to the readers, asking which of Yasiel Puig or Nick Castellanos was the preferred acquisition in a Trade Candidate Faceoff.  58.55% of the vote went towards Castellanos, though apparently the Reds didn’t agree with the majority, as Cincinnati acquired Puig as part of a seven-player trade with the Dodgers last week.
  • Speaking of trades, Jose Martinez no longer appears to have a starting role with the Cardinals, and thus stands out as a candidate for a deal.  Mark explored the first base/DH market to try and find a trade partner for Martinez, though the search is complicated by Martinez’s lack of defensive prowess and the number of teams who have already addressed needs at first base.
  • Rob Huff continued his Projecting Payroll series with a look at what the Cardinals might have available to spend this winter.  Based on roster needs and past spending habits, Rob estimated that the Cards could have around $26.3MM in available funds.  A good chunk of that money has already been used up, of course, as St. Louis made a big splash in the bullpen market to sign Miller to a two-year deal worth $25MM guaranteed, plus a vesting option for 2021.
  • With the caveat that not all contract terms are made public, approximately 12 teams currently have a manager or a front office boss (a GM or a president of baseball operations) going into the last year of their contracts, as Mark details in this listing of team personnel that may or may not be on the hot seat in 2019.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Managers and front office bosses are always doing their best to progress their teams forward, though this particular list of names could be feeling a bit more pressure this coming season, as 2019 is their final guaranteed year under contract.

As always when compiling this list, a pair of caveats should be noted.  Firstly, several teams don’t publicize the lengths of management contracts, and some teams don’t even announce when new contracts have been finalized.  It could very well be that at least some of the executives listed have already quietly reached extensions beyond the 2019 season, or there could be some other names with unknown contract terms who have 2019 as their end date.

Secondly, lack of an official contract doesn’t always mean that a manager or an executive is lacking in job security.  Some clubs have unofficial handshake agreements in place with the skipper or GM/president of baseball operations, wherein the job is promised as theirs, with the specific contractual details to be hammered out at some point in the future.  In the case of managers, specifically, many do prefer some type of public agreement, if for no other reason than to avoid being perceived as a “lame duck” who lacks authority within a clubhouse.

With a big tip of the cap to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for many of these details, here are the managers and executives who are believed to be entering their final seasons…

Angels: General manager Billy Eppler is three years into his original four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office, a term that has yet to result in a winning record.  Much has been made about the Angels’ inability to build a contender around Mike Trout during the outfielder’s Cooperstown-level prime years, and time is running short in that regard, given that Trout can become a free agent the 2020 season.  In Eppler’s defense, he has added quality pieces like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani as GM, though he has been hampered by a seemingly endless list of pitching injuries, not to mention some payroll-albatross contracts (Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson, and the ongoing Albert Pujols deal) left over from the tenure of previous Angels GM Jerry Dipoto.  Longtime manager Mike Scioscia had reportedly always had quite a bit of influence within the front office, though with Scioscia not returning, Eppler had the opportunity to make his own managerial hire in the form of Brad Ausmus.  There hasn’t yet been any indication that Eppler could be in particular danger of not being extended, though it’s worth noting that neither of Eppler’s predecessors in the job (Dipoto and Tony Reagins) lasted more than four years.

Blue Jays: Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi noted in September that general manager Ross Atkins was likely to receive an extension, and that such a deal wasn’t likely to receive public acknowledgement.  So, Atkins may already be locked up beyond the original end-date of his four-year deal prior to the 2016 season.  Atkins and president Mark Shapiro have planted the seeds for a rebuild over the last two seasons, and with the Jays now in full-fledged retooling mode for at least one more year, it makes sense that Atkins would continue to hold the reigns as Toronto prepares for the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era.

Brewers: This one is a bit speculative, as terms of GM David Stearns’ original deal with the Brewers weren’t released, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in October that “Stearns has at least one year left” under contract.  Stearns was hired prior to the 2016 season, so a four- or five-year deal seems pretty standard for a new general manager, particularly one that was seemingly facing a rebuild upon taking the position.  Needless to say, things are ahead of schedule in Milwaukee, as the Brewers were just a game away from the World Series last October.  Even if Stearns’ deal runs through 2020 rather than just 2019, it seems likely that Brewers ownership will have some talks about an extension this offseason given Stearns’ immediate success.

Cubs: There has already been quite a bit of speculation about Joe Maddon’s future at Wrigley Field, as the Cubs aren’t planning to discuss a new contract with the manager.  Though Maddon himself seems unperturbed about the situation and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein denied rumors of any hard feelings with his skipper, it does seem like a dugout change could be made unless the Cubs make another deep postseason run.

Diamondbacks: With two winning seasons and the 2017 NL Manager Of The Year Award on his resume in two years as manager, Torey Lovullo seems like a prime candidate for a new deal.  Though Arizona is now moving into a semi-rebuilding phase, this actually seems closer to the situation Lovullo was expected to inherit when he initially took the job, before he led the D’Backs to their surprise postseason berth in 2017.  I’d expect Lovullo to have an extension in hand by Opening Day at the latest.

Dodgers: Since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman signed his five-year, $35MM deal to take over the Dodgers’ front office in October 2014, the club has extended its streak of NL West titles to six in a row, and finally got over the postseason hump to return to the World Series, capturing the NL pennant in each of the last two seasons.  While the Comissioner’s Trophy has remained elusive, Friedman has managed to keep the Dodgers competitive even while cutting salaries, getting the team under the luxury tax threshold last season after payrolls touched the $300MM mark earlier this decade.  This is probably another instance of an extension being just a matter of time, as the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group seemingly has every reason to want to keep Friedman in the fold for several years to come.

Giants: The leadership shakeup that installed Farhan Zaidi as the Giants’ new GM didn’t extend to the dugout, as longtime manager Bruce Bochy will return for the last year of his current contract and his 13th overall season in San Francisco’s dugout.  Bochy turns 64 in April and he has dealt with heart issues in the past, leading to some whispers that he could move into retirement and hand the job over to a new manager.  Longtime coaches Hensley Meulens and Ron Wotus have both been mentioned as possible managers-in-waiting, or Zaidi could prefer to hire a new face from outside the organization.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see Bochy stick around in 2020 or beyond, should he want to continue managing and he forms a solid relationship with Zaidi.  Given Bochy’s championship-winning track record and the large amount of respect he holds within the organization, the possibility exists that he has already been promised the opportunity to end his tenure on his own terms.

Indians: General manager Mike Chernoff reportedly agreed to an extension with the team in November, though this is technically still an unknown situation since there wasn’t any official confirmation from either side.  That said, since Cleveland is one of the organizations that generally stays quiet about contract details for management figures, we can probably consider this one a done deal.  Chernoff was promoted to general manager in October 2015, so he could have been at the end of a three-year contract or the Tribe was getting an early jump on extending his four-year contract.  It’s also worth noting that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti signed an extension of indeterminate length back in 2013 and we haven’t heard any further contract news since, so Antonetti could also be approaching the end of a deal…unless he also signed an unreported extension at some point.  It’s safe to assume that big changes aren’t in the offing for a team that has won three straight AL Central titles.

Marlins: “There are indications the Marlins would like to retain [Don] Mattingly beyond 2019,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro recently reported, though Mattingly said that he had yet to hear from the team about extension negotiations.  Mattingly has managed the Fish through three tumultuous years in the organization’s history, and the fact that he is one of the few members of the Jeffrey Loria regime still in Miami could indeed be a sign that Derek Jeter and company have interest in keeping the veteran manager around to help mentor and develop young players during the franchise’s latest rebuild.

Red Sox: Principal owner John Henry recently noted that the team was “running out of time” in regards to an extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose five-year contract is up after the 2019 season.  (Since Dombrowski was hired in August 2015, the deal can probably be more accurately described as 4.5 years in length.)  Regardless of when the specific end-date may be, Dombrowski could hardly be in better position to land an extension in the aftermath of Boston’s World Series triumph.

Rockies: 2019 is the last guaranteed year of Bud Black’s contract as manager, though he has a bit of extra cushion since the Rockies hold a club option his services for 2020.  Since Black has led Colorado to the postseason in each of his first two seasons as manager, it seems like he’ll at least get that option exercised to add a bit more security, plus the team is likely to discuss a longer-term deal as well.

Royals: GM Dayton Moore has often reiterated that manager Ned Yost will decide on his own when to step away from the dugout, though that won’t happen for at least one more year, as Yost agreed to a one-year extension last September.  As Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman put it, however, there is “strong belief” that Yost won’t manage beyond 2019.  The Royals’ recent hiring of Mike Matheny to a special advisor role could be another sign that the team already has a successor in place for the 2020 season.

Looking For A Match In A Jose Martinez Trade

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Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season.  On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought.  Paul Goldschmidt has taken over as the Cards’ everyday first baseman, and with Marcell Ozuna in left field and Dexter Fowler slated for right field duty and hoping for a rebound, Martinez is now a man without a position, making him an intriguing potential trade chip as the Cardinals continue their offseason business.

Of course, there’s a good case to be made that St. Louis might not want to deal Martinez at all.  Since Goldschmidt is only under contract through 2019, the Cards may want to keep Martinez in the fold as long-term insurance if case Goldschmidt leaves in free agency.  Secondly, Martinez’s inexpensive pre-arbitration salary makes him a good asset for St. Louis to have as a bench bat.  It’s easy to imagine the Cardinals hanging onto Martinez for late-game pinch-hitting duty, or the occasional spot start should Goldschmidt, Ozuna, or Fowler require a day off.  Plus, should Fowler’s struggles continue next season, Martinez could find himself getting more regular playing time in right field.

There’s also the fact that the Cardinals seem to have already completed their biggest winter additions.  After landing Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cards’ remaining needs are relatively minor — a backup catcher, a left-handed bench bat, and perhaps another bullpen arm.  Any of these could be addressed in free agency rather than by trading Martinez.

With those arguments in mind, let’s now look at the case for why St. Louis might want to swing a deal.  For starters, trading Martinez now could be a sell-high move.  He was an unheralded prospect, who bounced around three other organizations (White Sox, Braves, Royals) before landing with the Cardinals, and Martinez didn’t really show much at the plate until 2014, when he was a 25-year-old on Atlanta’s high-A ball team.  Since Martinez turned 30 last July, he doesn’t really project as a long-term piece for the Cards.

There’s also the fact that “man without a position” is something of an apt description for Martinez even when he was getting everyday at-bats, as he has been a below-average defensive player whenever he has played around the diamond.  In 637 2/3 innings as an outfielder, Martinez has a -10.6 UZR/150 and minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved.  He hasn’t fared much better even at the less-stressful position, posting minus-6 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150 over 936 1/3 frames at first base.  While Martinez’s defense isn’t really an issue if he’s only limited to a spot start, or an inning or two at the end of a game after a pinch-hitting appearance, his poor glovework makes him a liability should the Cards actually need him for an extended fill-in capacity in case of injury.

The Rays and Dodgers have both reportedly shown some interest in acquiring Martinez, who makes some sense on either roster.  Los Angeles is looking to add some right-handed pop to its mostly left-handed lineup, though the Dodgers could be aiming for bigger-ticket additions (such as J.T. Realmuto or A.J. Pollock) than Martinez.  It’s possible that Tampa’s recent acquisition of Yandy Diaz could have taken them out of the Martinez hunt, as Diaz is another right-handed hitting complement to Ji-Man Choi in the first base/DH mix and Diaz also offers more defensive flexibility.

The Cardinals also tried to use Martinez as a trade chip to land Will Smith from the Giants, though it doesn’t appear San Francisco had much interest.  While the Giants need corner outfield help, Martinez would be a poor fit in the spacious AT&T Park outfield, and first base is already spoken for in the form of Brandon Belt (plus, Buster Posey handles first when the Giants spell him behind the plate).

We’ve already seen some significant action within the first base market this winter, as the likes of Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana (twice), Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, Matt Adams, and Steve Pearce have all been traded or signed with new teams.  Daniel Murphy will also be serving mostly as a first baseman with the Rockies, which addresses arguably the most glaring first base hole on any contending team.

It doesn’t leave much in the way of a wide-open trade market for Martinez, particularly since NL teams could be less likely to make a push given his lack of defensive prowess.  On the plus side, his four years of team control could attract rebuilding clubs as well as contenders.

The Royals or Tigers make some sense as a Martinez suitor, though K.C. has a lot of right-handed hitters already and Detroit has youngster Christin Stewart slated for some DH duty due to his own defensive shortcomings.  Martinez’s low price tag could appeal to the Mariners as they continue to cut costs, though the Cardinals would likely have to bring a third team into the trade to acquire Encarnacion, who obviously isn’t a fit in St. Louis with Goldschmidt on board.  The White Sox could use Martinez as a part-time outfielder and platoon partner with Yonder Alonso in 2019, with an eye towards a more regular role if one or both of Alonso and Jose Abreu depart in free agency after the season.  The Astros have been reportedly checking around for first base/DH help, though with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White already provided right-handed bats, Martinez could be overkill.

Returning to the National League, one interesting option could be Goldschmidt’s former team.  The Diamondbacks are planning to give Jake Lamb some time at first base this season, though Lamb is coming off a rough 2018 and didn’t even hit left-handed pitching well even when he was in good form.  If the D’Backs added Martinez to the first base mix, that would allow them to situationally shuffle Lamb to third base, Eduardo Escobar to second, and Ketel Marte potentially to center field.  While Martinez-to-Arizona makes sense on paper, however, one would imagine the idea was already floated between the D’Backs and Cardinals when they were discussing the Goldschmidt trade.  While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Diamondbacks wouldn’t pursue Martinez in a future deal later this winter, Martinez’s non-inclusion in that initial trade could indicate some lack of interest on Arizona’s part.

Checking In On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent Predictions

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As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently pointed out, at this time last year we had seen no open-market movement from the top of the free-agent pool. There’s still quite a lot of work to be done with regard to the current crop of players, but there also has been quite a bit more movement. With ten of the top twenty players listed on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list now having reportedly agreed to terms, it’s a good time to check in on how the market is developing.

Here are the deals that have reportedly been struck do date, not all of which have been finalized:

3. Patrick Corbin, SP — Predicted: 6 years, $129MM. Signed: 6 years, $140MM.

7. Nathan Eovaldi, SP — Predicted: 4 years, $60MM. Signed: 4 years, $68MM.

9. J.A. Happ, SP — Predicted: 3 years, $48MM. Signed: 2 years, $34MM.

10. Michael Brantley, OF — Predicted: 3 years, $45MM. Signed: 2 years, $32MM.

11. Andrew McCutchen, OF — Predicted: 3 years, $45MM. Signed: 3 years, $50MM.

13. Josh Donaldson, 3B — Predicted: 1 year, $20MM. Signed: 1 year, $23MM.

14. Charlie Morton, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $32MM. Signed: 2 years, $30MM.

15. Wilson Ramos, C — Predicted: 3 years, $36MM. Signed: 2 years, $19MM.

17. Jeurys Familia, RP — Predicted: 3 years, $33MM. Signed: 3 years, $30MM.

20. Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP — Predicted: 3 years, $33MM. Signed: 1 year, $17.9MM.

25. Joe Kelly, RP — Predicted: 3 years, $27MM. Signed: 3 years, $25MM.

36. Lance Lynn, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $16MM. Signed: 3 years, $30MM.

43. Garrett Richards, SP — Predicted: 2 years, $10MM. Signed: 2 years, $15.5MM.

44. Jesse Chavez, RP — Predicted: 2 years, $10MM. Signed: 2 years, $8MM.

45. CC Sabathia, SP — Predicted: 1 year, $8MM. Signed: 1 year, $8MM.

48. Kurt Suzuki, C — Predicted: 2 years, $8MM. Signed: 2 years, $10MM.

Total — Predicted: $560MM. Signed: $540.4MM.

It’s possible to look at that slate of signings and believe that the market is humming along. Perhaps the biggest point in favor of an optimistic outlook from the players’ perspective is the fact that many early moves seem to have set teams up for yet more acquisitions. Few if any teams appear “done” with their shopping at this point.

Of course, one could also argue that the earliest-to-sign free agents naturally outperformed expectations, since strong early interest is what drove their market. It could be that other names on the T50 list will find tougher going. Plus, the top of the position-player market and much of the relief market remain unresolved. And there’s a big group of mid-level free agents (and below) that are still waiting to see how things will shake out up top.

Timing is also an interesting topic to consider. Players are no doubt resolved not to allow the ticking clock to become too strong a lever for teams, who made clear last winter that patience isn’t going to be in short supply. Perhaps there’s still some feeling-out to be done in light of last year’s market shock, and there’s at least one significant trade chip (J.T. Realmuto) who could be holding things up a bit, but we may also simply be in an era when more of the offseason business tends to be completed later on the calendar.

Poll: Who Will Be The Next Top-10 Free Agent To Sign?

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A year ago on this date, only one of the top ten names on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2017-18 offseason had decided on their team for the upcoming season.  That player, in fact, wasn’t technically even a free agent at all — Masahiro Tanaka decided against opting out of his contract with the Yankees, thus avoiding the open market altogether.

So, at least in comparison to the uniquely slow pace of last year’s offseason, we’ve already seen quite a bit of action on the free agent front this winter.  After today’s news of Wilson Ramos’ deal with the Mets, seven of the top 25 players in this year’s top 50 ranking have already reached agreements, including three members of the top ten — Patrick Corbin (#3) signed with the Nationals, Nathan Eovaldi (#7) re-signed with the Red Sox, and J.A. Happ (#9) has reportedly agreed to rejoin the Yankees.

There have been a lot of rumors swirling around the remaining seven players in our top ten, and it’s anyone guess as to which will be the next to sign.  Let’s take a look at where things reportedly stand with each member of this septet….

Bryce Harper: With Harper and agent Scott Boras reportedly looking for nothing less than the biggest contract in baseball history, it would admittedly be surprising to see the former Nationals outfielder come off the board next.  Harper, his wife Kayla, and Boras has reportedly held court with multiple teams in private meetings in Las Vegas, though the specific identities of these teams isn’t yet clear.  Teams like the Dodgers, White Sox, Phillies, and Cardinals are known to have some level of interest in Harper’s services, while we’ve also heard some teams (like the Nationals and Yankees) seemingly count themselves out of “Harper’s Bazaar,” as Boras calls it.  Speculative fits like the Cubs or Giants could also be out due to budget constraints.  Boras has a penchant for waiting until deep into the offseason to find a satisfactory contract for his clients, so I’d guess that we won’t know the identity of Harper’s next team before 2018 is over.

Manny Machado: The star infielder is set for in-person meetings with the White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, and at least one more team this week.  It’s impossible to mention Machado’s free agency without also mentioning Harper, as the two share many of the same suitors and it seems highly unlikely that one team would be willing to spend big enough to add both to the same roster.  Machado’s controversial history of overly-aggressive (or, as some might say, outright dirty) play has been a factor in his market, as was his October interview with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal about his admitted lack of maximum effort on some plays, and his admission that “I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle.’ ”  While questions about Machado’s personality are legitimate, especially as he is looking for a record-breaking contract, it’s also possible some teams are using Machado’s interview as leverage to try and lower his price tag.  We should know more about Machado’s status once these in-person meetings are complete, and if a team’s concerns about his work ethic are erased after a face-to-face meetings, it isn’t impossible that a signing could come before Christmas.

Dallas Keuchel: Another Boras client, Keuchel might not have quite as long a wait on the market since there has already been something of a run on free agent starting pitching, as Corbin, Eovaldi, Happ, and Charlie Morton have all found new teams.  On the trade front, there now seems to be less chance that the Indians could deal Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while the Mets’ flurry of acquisitions have made a Noah Syndergaard trade less likely.  Teams that missed out on these frontline arms may now be willing to meet Keuchel’s hefty asking price, and give up the draft pick compensation necessary to sign the lefty since he rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer.  Teams like the Reds, Braves, Padres, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Nationals have all been reported to have varying levels of Keuchel’s services.

Craig Kimbrel: Teams would also need to surrender a draft to sign Kimbrel since he turned down a QO from the Red Sox, and might also have to fork over the biggest contract ever given to a relief pitcher.  A big initial ask is a common negotiating tactic, of course, though even at a lower amount, Kimbrel and his representatives clearly see him worthy of a deal akin to Aroldis Chapman/Kenley Jansen money.  The Cardinals and Phillies have both been linked to Kimbrel, and the Red Sox may or may not still be in on their former closer.  The recent signings of Jeurys Familiar and Joe Kelly indicate that the bullpen market is starting to move, though Kimbrel is obviously in a higher financial level than those types of contracts.

Yasmani Grandal: The Angels, Astros, and White Sox have all been linked to Grandal, though Houston might be out of the catching market after signing Robinson Chirinos.  Chicago also recently added James McCann, though that isn’t quite as significant an obstacle to a future move for Grandal, should the Sox deal Welington Castillo and then install Grandal as the starter ahead of McCann.  Even before Ramos became a Met, Grandal’s biggest competition has likely been J.T. Realmuto, though teams have thus far balked at meeting the Marlins’ large asking price in a trade.  The Mets are one team that decided to simply sign a quality catcher rather than trade for Realmuto, and another backstop-needy team could do the same by inking Grandal, though he’s another QO free agent.  There has been some indication that the Marlins could decide by Christmas whether to keep or trade Realmuto, so once that decision is made either way, Grandal’s market will gain some clarity.

A.J. Pollock: Here’s another player who turned down a qualifying offer, and another with a pricey contract demand (reportedly in the $80MM range).  The Mets, Braves, Reds, and Astros are known to have interest in Pollock, plus with so many trade rumors swirling around other outfielders, more suitors could easily emerge as more outfield spots are created.

Michael Brantley: Machado and Brantley are the only two of these seven players who don’t have QO compensation tied to their services, which gives Brantley in particular a boost as he tests free agency for the first time in his career.  Furthermore, Brantley also appears willing to try playing first base, which adds a bit of extra versatility to his repertoire for any interested teams, even if Brantley would still primarily play as an outfielder.  What could dampen enthusiasm, however, is Brantley’s initial asking price, reportedly something akin to a $20MM average annual value over three years.  We’ve already heard that the Braves aren’t meeting that price, and other Brantley suitors like the Astros, Cardinals, and White Sox are also sure to aim for a lower number.

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Trade Candidate Faceoff: Yasiel Puig Vs. Nicholas Castellanos

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For at least the past year, a pair of right fielders – the Dodgers’ Yasiel Puig and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos – have been among the majors’ biggest potential trade chips. Neither player has gone anywhere to this point, but it now looks like only a matter of time before both Puig and Castellanos don new uniforms.

During this week’s Winter Meetings, reports surfaced indicating the Dodgers are “actively” attempting to trade Puig and the Tigers are “determined” to ship out Castellanos. As of now, Puig and Castellanos haven’t been connected to the same teams in the rumor mill, but it stands to reason they’d have similar suitors. Los Angeles may even replace Puig with Castellanos, who would likely offer analogous on-field value and perhaps cause fewer behind-the-scenes headaches.

A native of Cuba, Puig signed with the Dodgers to great fanfare in 2012 and made a dazzling debut the next season, when he was as captivating as he was productive. The early version of Puig – the one who often inspired awe at the plate, in the field and on the bases – was not only a perfect fit for Hollywood, but he was also among the majors’ elite players. From 2013-14, Puig’s first two seasons, only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt finished ahead of him in wRC+ (153). Meanwhile, just those four and 10 other position players outdid Puig in fWAR (9.5), despite the fact that he accrued fewer plate appearances than everyone near the top of the leaderboard.

Had Puig continued to produce at anything resembling the blistering pace of his first two seasons, it’s possible the Dodgers may have worked to extend him by now. Instead, the 28-year-old’s numbers nosedived after his second season, and his relationship with the Dodgers has soured along the way. Thanks in part to those factors, Puig’s entering his last year of team control, and it seems like a strong possibility that he has taken his final at-bat with the championship-contending Dodgers.

There haven’t been any reports of problems between Castellanos and the Tigers, on the other hand. Nevertheless, as a team in a rebuild, Detroit’s positioned to bid goodbye to Castellanos – whom it chose in the first round of the 2010 draft. Like Puig, the soon-to-be 27-year-old Castellanos is entering his final season of control, and the two players are projected to earn matching $11.3MM salaries in 2019. The similarities continue in the form of their respective outputs dating back to 2016, Castellanos’ breakout season.

Since Castellanos finally began living up to the billing he had as a prospect, he has accumulated 1,790 PAs and 7.0 fWAR on the strength of a .285/.336/.495 batting line – good for a healthy 121 wRC+. During the same period, Puig totaled far fewer PAs (1,382) but still managed 5.8 fWAR, thanks largely to a .264/.334/.470 slash and a 115 wRC+. Puig also swiped 35 bases, easily trumping Castellanos’ seven, and destroyed his fellow trade candidate in the field. From 2016-18, only nine outfielders piled up more Defensive Runs Saved than Puig’s 29. Meanwhile, Castellanos has struggled to find a position – he was a butcher at third base from 2016-17 and also fared poorly in the outfield last season. Consequently, Castellanos’ future may be at first base or designated hitter.

Aside from their dissimilarities in the field and on the bases, the two right-handed hitters have also provided their offensive production in different ways. Castellanos tortured left-handers from 2017-18 – a 308-PA sample in which he slashed .338/.386/.585 (159 wRC+) – whereas Puig was borderline unplayable versus southpaws in the same span. Although Puig was a formidable presence against lefties earlier in his career, they held him to a feeble .197/.292/.320 line and a horrid 66 wRC+ over the previous two seasons and 259 PAs. As a result, the Dodgers limited his playing time when a righty wasn’t on the hill last season, reportedly leading to discontentment from Puig and an open-minded attitude toward a trade.

Both Puig and Castellanos may well have new homes come 2019, potentially joining the top free-agent corner outfielders – Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley and McCutchen – in that regard. McCutchen’s already off the board, and for teams that aren’t in position to ink Harper to a record contract or hand Brantley a lucrative multiyear payday, Puig and Castellanos could represent appealing alternatives. The question is: Which player would you rather have?

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Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projecting Payrolls: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Winter Meetings are now in full swing, so it’s time to keep this ball rolling and move on to our 11th team. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club who has missed the playoffs for three consecutive years for the first time since the 1990s and has already made (possibly) its biggest offseason splash: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Team Leadership

After over 40 years of Anheuser-Busch ownership, the Cardinals were sold to former St. Louis Browns bat boy and American businessman Bill DeWitt Jr. in 1995. DeWitt has maintained ownership of the club since that time, involving his family in the management thereof. DeWitt’s son, Bill DeWitt III, is has been team president for the past decade. St. Louis missed the playoffs each year from 1988-95, a seven-year postseason drought (nobody made the playoffs in 1994), and they made the playoffs only once during the first five years of DeWitt ownership from 1995-99, reaching the National League Championship Series in 1996. Beginning with the 2000 season, however, St. Louis has made 12 postseason visits while missing out on the tournament only seven times, a remarkable run of success.

The front office is lead by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. Mozeliak joined the Cardinals organization in 1996 as a scouting assistant and climbed the ladder, finally becoming General Manager in October 2007 before ascending to his current post in June 2017. In a move that coincided with Mozeliak’s ascension, Mike Girsch was named General Manager.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Cardinals, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers a time of tremendous success for the Cardinals. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

St. Louis spending was largely unchanged for the latter half of the past decade, sticking just south of $100 million each year from 2005-10 before finally crossing the threshold in 2011. Nevertheless, spending didn’t take a big leap for the Cardinals until the rival Cubs emerged as a force in 2015, perhaps fueling a payroll surge in 2016 that hasn’t subsided.

Despite this increased Major League spending, the Cardinals have never paid the luxury tax, nor have they been players for the most significant international free agents. Their laudable ability to develop talent internally has enabled them to eschew massive spending or risk taking in their pursuit of wins.

Future Liabilities

The Cardinals have something of an all-in approach for 2019. See below.

There are some big-money salaries on here, but most of the Cardinals’ commitments are in the form of mid-market deals for relatively short periods of time, many of which expire or feature options for the 2020 season.

Nevertheless, the team’s best hitter, the newly-acquired Paul Goldschmidt, and their best pitcher, the recently-acquired Miles Mikolas, both figure to get massive raises when they hit free agency in 11 months. If both players produce as stars, the club will either make a big play to keep one or both or they’ll enjoy the compensation draft picks that come along with having a pair of free agents decline qualifying offers and sign elsewhere.

The multi-year commitment to franchise icons Molina and Martinez look like good investments. Molina figures to spend his entire career in St. Louis. His 2017 extension all but ensured that. His top-level defense renders this deal a fine use of cash, albeit not the most efficient one. Martinez struggled with injuries in 2018, but he has consistently pitched as an ace, comes at bargain prices thanks to his 2017 extension, and is still, incredibly, just 27 years old.

Contrarily, the multi-year commitment to Fowler looks like a bad one. The former Cub enjoyed a strong year with his bat in 2017, but 2018 was an unmitigated disaster as Fowler failed to get on bad or hit the ball with authority. For a player with a lengthy injury history, he also missed substantial time with a foot injury. He is rapidly nearing pumpkin territory.

The Cardinals feature a trio of players with club options for the 2020 season that are auditioning for that payday. Carpenter is overwhelmingly likely to have his option exercised as the offensive force with defensive versatility fits on every team. Gyorko has recovered nicely after arriving in St. Louis after bottoming out post-extension in San Diego, but his option is a coin flip at best. Gregerson washed out in 2018 with shoulder issues, but a strong 2019 that shows a return to his 2009-16 success could change the script.

Cecil largely provided the desired results after arriving in 2017, but he flopped in 2018, struggling with homers and especially walks. At 32 and having lost two miles per hour on his pitches across the board, he could be dead weight for the club absent a surprising rebound.

One more franchise icon, Wainwright returns for a last hurrah in 2019 on an incentive-laden deal that contemplates a starting or relieving role. Regardless of who he has left in the tank, he won’t cost the club much.

Finally, there are a pair of extensions for athletic middle infielders. Wong came with a first-round pedigree, but his bat has never fully justified that history, save for a strong BABIP season in 2017. His glove and wheels, however, have rendered him a solid regular. DeJong, on the other hand, the 131st pick in the 2015 draft, positively exploded onto the scene in 2017 and showed that it was no fluke with a strong repeat performance in 2018, albeit one that was based more on his glove than his offensive prowess. Nevertheless, DeJong appears to be a league-average bat with legitimate defensive chops at shortstop.

Finally, we hit the dead money. Like so many clubs in the last decade, the Cardinals featured deferred money in big-money deals for Holliday and Pujols, owing the pair $2.6 million annually throughout the 2020s. That’s not backbreaking money, but it’s more than nothing.

As with the Giants before them, given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Cardinals have very little in the way of arbitration eligible talent. Ozuna is the big fish with a seat at the arbitration table as he makes his final trip through the process in advance of free agency next winter. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that Chasen Shreve has already come to an agreement at $900,000, a bit below that projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:

In addition to Ozuna, Wacha figures to play a key role despite having lost much of 2018 to a lingering oblique injury.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

The Cardinals are talking like an organization ready to push in a whole bunch of chips on the 2019 table, with Mozeliak stating at the Winter Meetings that “simply, we realize the importance of 2019.”

DeWitt turned things up a notch last month, explaining that “there is value in star players” and adding that “we’re aggressive and we’ve got resources to deploy if the right situation emerges.” Incredibly, DeWitt even specifically addressed spending on free agents when commenting about his desire to build a team that perennially wins 90 games, offering up that “frankly, we felt that incremental benefit (of free agents) could get us those last few wins.”

This is not an organization that seems content to watch the Cubs and Brewers rule the National League Central for the next few years.

Are the Cardinals a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

No matter what you hear elsewhere, the answer here is simple: absolutely yes.

Although the Cardinals haven’t signed a player to a contract larger than Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million pact, they made competitive offers for Jason Heyward and David Price approaching $200 million each while agreeing to take on over $250 million for Giancarlo Stanton before he ended up in the Bronx last winter. The team hasn’t shied away from monster offers.

As for their roster, even after shipping out Luke Weaver in the Goldschmidt trade, St. Louis is dripping with cheap, controllable pitching behind Mikolas, Wainwright, and Wacha in the form of Martinez, Jack Flaherty, super-prospect Alex Reyes (despite his injuries), and Dakota Hudson, and that’s before factoring in John Gant’s surprising 2018 season. They don’t really need starting pitching help.

The team is loaded up with right-handed bats featuring good-to-great power in Goldschmidt, Ozuna, DeJong, Molina, and defensively-homeless Jose Martinez. Harper would provide an awfully attractive complement in the middle of that order. I’m not sure if Machado fits as smoothly, but Harper sure does.

Watch out for St. Louis on Harper. They make a ton of sense.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The Cardinals will almost certainly avoid reaching taxpayer status in 2019. They’ve never shown a penchant to spend to that degree. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if spending received another boost based on the fact that the team has missed the playoffs for three straight years and given the amount of resources poured into the Goldschmidt and Ozuna acquisitions.

As currently constructed, St. Louis has a payroll of just $148.7 million, $149.3 million for luxury tax purposes. Given historical trends and the pressure to win now, I expect to see a notable one-year jump in spending before the team regroups for 2020 with Mikolas, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt all hitting free agency at the same time.

If spending spikes to $180 million, the team would have $31.3 million of space, nearly enough to sign Harper without any other roster maneuvering. I don’t think that things will get quite that lofty, but even a bit below that figure, there’s enough space for the team to make a relatively simple move — like trading Gyorko for salary relief with the third baseman displaced by Carpenter’s move back across the diamond — to clear space for Harper.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $26.3 million

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard: The Winter Meetings

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It’s 10:02am in Nashville, Tennessee.  Thursday December 13th, 2018.  My name is Tim Dillard, and if you’re reading this looking for the latest up-to-the-minute coverage of the 2018 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings… then I apologize, this isn’t one of those articles.  In fact, if you’re not in the mood to hear mostly incoherent ramblings from a bearded, smaller than life, Minor League free agent… then you may want to go ahead and X right on out of this thing.  Just tap the back button on your screen, it’s usually in the corner somewhere.  I guess swiping is also an option now depending on your phone.

10:05am  Anyway, if you’re still here, please lower your expectations a bit.  Like I mentioned earlier my name is Tim Dillard.  I’ve been pitching in professional baseball for 16 years.  To answer the question you’re currently thinking:  the hardest pitch I ever threw was 97 miles per hour.  And to answer your next question:  yes, Chase Utley DID almost hit it through the right-centerfield wall. (no more questions)

10:07am  My first season was back in 2003, and I used phone cards to call my parents.  Nowadays I have my own phone, and a website, a podcast, a twitter, and occasionally write for MLB Trade Rumors… when I’m super desperate for cash.  Which happens quite often since I’ve played 93.75% of my professional baseball career in the Minor Leagues.  This percentage could be wrong however, it’s been a while since I was graded in the math department.  (It was a C in college algebra BTW… but I’m not here to brag)

10:11am  Actually, the only reason I decided to write anything today was because the Winter Meetings have been plastered all over MLB Network this week, and it made me think about the time I snuck into the 2015 Winter Meetings in Nashville.

10:12m  I always wondered what went on at MLB’s Winter Meetings, but never had much desire to attend.  It appeared to be more for sports agents, sports writers, and General Managers… and the only players I ever heard about attending were the guys signing million dollar deals or the guys meeting up with their agent person for a free dinner.

10:14am  But during the 2015 off-season I found myself right in the middle of the event.  I was once again a Minor League free agent… which is just a fancy word for unemployed.  And if you’re still looking for a job when mid-December rolls around… trepidation creeps in.  (fancy word for panic)  Every year it gets more and more difficult for older Four-A guys like myself to find places to play.  (Four-A is the term for the group of crusty ball players caught in the web between Triple-A and The Show)

10:17am  So by the time the December Meetings rolled around, I had already called, texted, emailed, twittered, Facebook stalked, smoke signaled, and Game of Thrones raven messaged literally everyone I knew looking for a Minor League spring training invite.

10:21am  I contacted (including… but not limited to) General Managers, assistant GM’s, managers, coaches, coordinators, scouts, farm directors, field coordinators, clubhouse personnel, statisticians, bat boys, and at least 2 mascots.  Unfortunately, I received nothing but crickets.

10:23am  Around the moment I was filling out my Rodan+Fields application so I could sell stuff to my friends… my parents called me.  My dad, former Major League infielder, former Minor League coach, and STILL current role model, told me to try one more thing… a last attempt.  He spoke of a tradition.  A tradition that has seemingly faded away in the age of technology.  The dying art of a handshake at the MLB Winter Meetings.

10:28am  As the story goes, the Winter Meetings was once a place where players could see organizational decision-makers face to face, and ask for a job.  A situation where people who love the game too much to give it up, could “randomly” bump into baseball executives.  So that’s what I did.  Uninvited and determined, I walked into Major League Baseball’s 2015 Winter Meetings with coffee… and a handful of homemade business cards that read: “Tim Dillard RHP” (right-handed pitcher)

10:34am  The massive indoor resort was filled with people from every realm of the baseball universe.  A circus complete with press conferences, interviews, speeches, tv shows, and award ceremonies.  All of which could be accessed with proper credentials… I had no such credentials, so I just walked around.

10:36am  After parading for an hour, I decided to stand at a strategically positioned walkway.  (between the Media Area, hotel rooms, and Starbucks of course)  And so for the next 6 hours I shook many new hands, hugged many old friends, and handed out many RHP cards.  The first person I saw was my former teammate Gabe Kapler!  At the time he was with the Dodgers, but now he’s the Phillies manager.  He asked me what I’ve been doing after all these years, and I told him I was still pitching.  “Still?” he said.  Right after him I saw my former manager Ned Yost!  He was fresh off a World Series Title with the Royals and thought it would be the perfect time to ask him for a job.  After a big hug he said, “Sorry Timmy, I don’t handle the hiring of Minor League coaches.”

10:41am  The next day I stood in the same spot for 7 hours.  By this time people thought I worked there, and began asking me for directions.  I also successfully gave my information to the Cincinnati Reds’ stadium announcer… I thought he was a coach.  Minutes later I saw Astros and D’Backs legend Luis Gonzalez!  I reminded him that my dad coached him years ago, and that I used to shine his shoes!  He was very cool and friendly until I divulged how I once saw him and tried to get his attention by yelling across the parking lot of a Phoenix area pizzeria in 2007.  Suddenly he was late for a meeting.

10:47am  Day three was more of the same.  “Take the left hallway at the top of the escalator, and Starbucks will be on your right.”  But after noticing there wasn’t many baseball people walking around, I left my post and went searching.  I caught wind of some Farm Directors talking with Minor League stadium GM’s over at the MLB Trade Show… unfortunately an Access Pass and name tag was needed to get in.  So I went and stole one.

10:49am  Once inside the Trade Show, I marveled at all of its wonders.  Booths and stands of Louisville Slugger bats, Wilson gloves, Franklin batting gloves, a Racing Sausage, Majestic shirts, bobbleheads, New Era hats, Cheeto-infused popcorn, and a speed pitch booth!

10:50am  I couldn’t find anybody wearing a MLB team polo, so I strolled over to the speed pitch area. The nice people there told me that if I can throw one of the three balls 88 miles per hour into the net, I’d win a signed Nolan Ryan baseball!  “Give me the ball.” I smirked.  These dudes had no idea that I was a professional pitcher, but I knew I was about to go home with a Nolan Ryan ball!  After I wiped orange popcorn off my fingers I let it rip.  First throw… 74 mph.  I was just warming up.  Next throw… 81 mph.  “Oh crap!” I thought.  The final pitch I threw with everything I had… 84 mph.  (I never wanted a DeLorean so bad in my life)

10:54am  Discouraged by my throwing performance and the 20 hours I had spent standing over the last 3 days… it was time for me to go home.  Arguably the hardest thing I’ve ever done in my 13 seasons up to that point.  Even more difficult than the time I tried to make pitches on a mound in Mexico while toeing a buried cinder block.

10:56am  THEN!  Just minutes after the MLB Rule 5 Draft had concluded and my feet heading toward the exit, I heard my name!  Milwaukee Brewers Farm Director Tom Flanagan was flagging me down, and telling me the Rule 5 Draft had possibly opened up an opportunity for me!  We shook hands…  a week later I was a Brewer.

10:58am  Currently I’m a free agent once again (for the 10th time) and would have loved to revisit the Winter Meetings, but wasn’t able to make it over to Las Vegas.  Instead I’ve been intensely watching the TV to see which team is the most desperate for pitching.

11:00am  Oh man gotta go!  The Rule 5 Draft is coming on… never know!

To Be Concluded…

Poll: Grading The Goldschmidt Trade

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First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, he of the career .297/.398/.532 line, was one of the most coveted assets on the offseason trade market. After a bitterly disappointing end to the Diamondbacks season, in which the club won just eight out of their final 28 games after staking a claim to top of the division on August 30th, a full-scale shuffling of parts was sure to be in order.  The club was almost certainly set to lose ace Patrick Corbin, who this week signed a monster $140MM deal with Washington, plus center-field stalwart A.J. Pollock, who, despite several injury-marred campaigns, posted a robust 14.9 fWAR in his final five seasons with the team.  And flimsy depth on the 25-man roster and in the upper minors paired with a system devoid of high-impact talent to offer a mostly inauspicious outlook in seasons to come.

Was it finally to time to cash in on the organization’s most valued trade chip?  The answer, in the end, was a resounding “yes”: On Wednesday, the organization finally agreed to a package with the 31-year-old’s most oft-rumored suitor, the St. Louis Cardinals.  25-year-old right-hander Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly, 24, are the two most notable pieces going back to Arizona in the deal; Andy Young, a 24-year-old minor league infielder, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick are also part of the return for the D’Backs.

Goldschmidt, of course, is entering the final year of a contract that will pay him just $14.5MM in 2019. His presence figures to move defensive yo-yo Matt Carpenter back to his original home at third base, where the 33-year-old has, encouragingly, graded out as mostly above average with the glove in limited time over the last two years after a series of dreadful campaigns in the middle portion of the decade.

Infielder Jedd Gyorko and 1B/COF Jose Martinez, then, would seem to be left bench-ridden, and could be prime trade chips in the weeks to come. Speculatively, major bullpen upgrades could be in order — as a whole, the unit posted an abysmal 4.50 xFIP and 4.34 BB/9 last season, both of which ranked in the bottom five across the league. Though the departing package was significant, the Redbirds are left with a most prominent feather in their collective cap: with nine big-league-tested starting pitchers in the fold for next season, and a super surplus at catcher — the immortal Yadier Molina, plus top prospect Andrew Knizner — the Cards figure to lose very little in present-day value.

For the Diamondbacks, the return may have eclipsed even their wildest hopes, with one executive reportedly dubbing the package a “boatload.”  Weaver and Kelly come with a combined 11 seasons of team control, and each should project around league average in the upcoming campaign. Kelly, a former top 50 prospect, seems especially intriguing — with the offensive baseline at catcher approaching its all-time nadir (catchers slashed a putrid .232/.304/.372 as a whole last season, for an 84 wRC+), the 24-year-old needs only to supplement his sterling defense with marginal offensive production to become an above-average big leaguer.

So, how would you grade this deal for each club?

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Rangers remain in an uncomfortable position, buried in the AL West and attempting to transition to a new contending core without undergoing a drastic rebuild. It’s an interesting contrast to the division-rival Mariners.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Rangers depth chart |  Rangers current payroll outlook]

We’re a bit late to the party here, as the Rangers have already begun their winter roster tinkering. It’s hard to label it as much more than that, however, as the organization has mostly worked on some smaller-scale moves. We’ll use this opportunity to assess the state of the organization and try to suss out the possibility of more notable transactions in the near future.

The Rangers have largely eschewed dramatic moves of late, with the organization adopting a cautious approach as two consecutive division titles (2015 and 2016) gave way to a pair of losing seasons. The team appears to be attempting to time a return to competitiveness with the anticipated opening of a new ballpark in 2020. While a salary draw-down is underway, though, a total roster teardown has not been attempted.

This offseason has again placed recently extended president of baseball Jon Daniels in a somewhat awkward position, as he has worked to fill out the roster without any real hope or intention of putting a contending product on the field. The focus, unsurprisingly, has been on compiling a palatable unit of pitchers.

In addition to the commitments made last winter to Mike Minor, Edinson Volquez, and Chris Martin, the Rangers have now added Jesse Chavez and Drew Smyly — the latter in a unique arrangement with the Cubs that also resolved the teams’ open business regarding Cole Hamels. Additionally, veteran receiver Jeff Mathis was brought on board to help guide the pitching staff. These are perhaps best characterized as gap-filling measures. Only Minor, Chavez, and Mathis will be on hand into the 2020 campaign, after all. And though all of those players could certainly be of use to a winning club, they’re hardly the types of asset that will drive the bus.

It’s incumbent upon Daniels, if the organization wants its first season in its new facility to bring some excitement for its fans, to find a way to move toward the compilation of a new core of high-level players. There is some talent to work with, though there’s also ample uncertainty. Not a single Rangers player cracked 3 fWAR last year.

Shortstop Elvis Andrus is back after deciding not to opt out on the heels of an injury-plagued 2018 effort. He’s still young enough to be a part of the future, but a big rebound campaign could also prompt him to opt out of the remainder of his contract. Likewise, Jurickson Profar is still only 25 years of age and showed signs of life last year, but he only comes with one more season of arbitration control after the upcoming campaign. The former could emerge as a mid-2019 trade candidate if he’s playing well enough to draw interest. The latter could as well, though perhaps it’s not too late to imagine him changing hands this winter (a seemingly annual possibility).

There’s at least as much uncertainty surrounding the aging Shin-Soo Choo, who is coming off of a nice season with the bat but remains quite pricey and is increasingly limited to DH duties. Shedding some of the $42MM he’s still owed would figure to be of interest, though we’ve certainly seen no indication that the Rangers will prioritize that to the point that they’d package Choo with higher-value assets, as the Mariners have. Still, shopping him could yield some interesting possibilities this winter. After all, there are a good number of other contract swap candidates out there. It’s possible the Rangers could work something out to acquire a younger, higher-upside player or to rid themselves of some of Choo’s cost.

Taking advantage of the fact that Choo is a useful, albeit overpriced player could do more than open the door to adding a somewhat more interesting piece for a club in the Rangers’ position. Any newfound payroll space could then be applied to free agent or trade/claim candidates who could potentially turn into trade chips or even future assets for the Texas ballclub. And the organization would free a roster spot and playing time, possibly affording additional opportunities to find value.

The Rangers have continued to spend even in this down period, so perhaps hanging onto Choo won’t hamstring the organization from doing what it otherwise wishes. Still, with a budget that’s expected to land at $120MM or so, there likely isn’t much more space to work with once arb money and league-minimum salaries are added to the contractual commitments. Even a few extra million might open the door to some intriguing opportunities that may not even yet be evident. (To take but one example of the potential upside, the Reds’ late-March claim of Scooter Gennett in 2017 has paid enormous dividends for the club.) Perhaps it’s possible the Rangers could acquire some young talent by taking on an undesirable contract from another club.

Regardless of the path, it seems the organization should be looking for ways to put its hefty payroll (for a rebuilding team) to use, not just in keeping the club afloat at the MLB level but in trying to unearth future value. Because, frankly, there’s a desperate need for it. Daniels stated the obvious recently: “This is not the year where we are going to go all out. We are probably a year away from starting to look at some different options for expanding the payroll.” That’s plenty sensible, but it’s also a clear acknowledgement of the fact that this is firmly a rebuilding club … albeit one that has decided still to outspend quite a few other organizations. The estimated $120MM payroll is being flushed so far as 2019 competitiveness goes, so perhaps more of it ought to be diverted to future-oriented undertakings.

After all, it’s hard to say that any particular player currently on the roster is highly likely to be a part of the next competitive Rangers ballclub. Second baseman Rougned Odor is locked in on a long-term contract, made some improvements over the course of the 2019 season, and is just 24 years of age. But he’s far from a sure thing given his inconsistencies and remaining rough spots. Joey Gallo just reached his 25th birthday and has posted consecutive 40-homer seasons. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next fall. But he’s also a three-true-outcomes extremist. Gallo’s surprising defensive versatility is a boon, and he’s certainly a valuable asset, but he surely hasn’t yet proven he’s a reliable star-level player and could get expensive rather quickly as a power-heavy arbitration player. Meanwhile, Nomar Mazara is younger than both of those just-mentioned teammates and has hit precisely twenty home runs in each of his first three years in the majors. But he has yet to take the next step in his development, having fallen shy of the league-average bar on offense in each of those seasons.

At times, that trio has seemed a budding core unit, but it hasn’t happened yet. The other pieces on hand come with even greater questions. On the position-player side, Ronald Guzman and Willie Calhoun have shown their share of promise at times with the bat, but are far from established big league hitters. Drew Robinson has torn up the minors in recent years and should have an opportunity to show he can do it in the big leagues, though his 125 MLB plate appearances last year were a dud. Isiah Kiner-Falefa offers versatility and Delino DeShields Jr. can contribute speed and defense, but neither has sustained productivity in the majors at the plate.

Even including the veteran hurlers mentioned above, all of whom come with significant health risks, the pitching staff remains a unit with about as many holes as any around the game. The rotation still likely needs some added depth options, at a minimum. Southpaw Yohander Mendez will likely get a crack at earning a rotation job, though he has struggled in the majors and wasn’t successful last year at Triple-A, either. Righty Ariel Jurado has not missed many bats in the upper minors or in his initial showing in the bigs, but could get another look if he impresses in camp. Deadline acquisition Taylor Hearn could break into the majors in 2019, but likely still has some refinement left before he gets the call.

On the relief side, there are at least a few players to watch. Connor Sadzeck was effective at Triple-A in 2018 and got results in a brief MLB debut, but did so while issuing 11 free passes in 9 1/3 innings. Nick Gardewine has put up interesting numbers at times while climbing the ladder and reached the bigs last year, but missed much of the year with forearm troubles. Alex Claudio has been effective in the past and could be again. Fellow southpaw Jeffrey Springs racked up 15.6 K/9 last year in the upper minors in a multi-inning role and was effective in his first 32 MLB frames. The as-yet-unestablished C.D. Pelham is another lefty option in the pen. Still, this is another area where depth and/or upside plays would be most welcome.

Of course, I’ve left one name out of the discussion to date, and it’s a notable one. Young righty Jose Leclerc showed quite a bit of promise last year while sliding into the closer’s role. The 24-year-old made strides with his control while recording more than 13 strikeouts per nine and working to a 1.56 ERA in 57 2/3 innings. That output was driven in no small part by the fact that he held opposing hitters to only a single long ball. Any reversal in his walk rates (he went from 7.9 per nine in 2017 to a much more palatable 3.9 last year), combined with a dinger increase, could change his outlook. But it’s hard not to admire his mid-to-upper nineties heat and whopping 17.1% swinging-strike rate. There are quite a few quality relievers available in free agency, to be sure, but contending clubs that don’t like the price tags and obvious risks that come with the open-market options could eye him as a trade target. If the Rangers market Leclerc, who’s controlled through 2022, there could be an opportunity to add some players who hold out the promise of turning into core pieces.

There’ll surely be more roster plugging efforts to come over the course of the offseason. But the primary focus of Daniels and his staff probably ought to be on exploring creative ways to infuse talent to the upper portions of a farm that features many high-risk and/or far-off assets among its best-regarded players. If there’s enough funding left to work with, perhaps some targeted free agent moves could still make sense, with Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi representing a particularly interesting target given his young age. Taking a crack at some bounceback pitching — relievers Cody Allen or Justin Wilson, say, or starters such as Lance Lynn, Drew Pomeranz, or even Ervin Santana — would make sense and fit the mold of recent Rangers moves. Ultimately, new skipper Chris Woodward will do what he can to set the tone and drive some improvement in the team’s young MLB players, but the near and long-term outlook remains foggy at best.

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