Alex Verdugo

July 31: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that rival clubs inquiring on Verdugo’s availability have gotten the impression the Sox plan to retain him past the deadline.

July 30: As the Red Sox remain in the wild card race and seem likely to add pieces before Tuesday’s trade deadline, the club has already dealt Enrique Hernandez and might also move other regulars in an effort to upgrade the roster as a whole.  MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam report that the Sox are open to at least listening to offers for outfielder Alex Verdugo, and one unknown AL team in discussions with the Red Sox said the Sox brought up Verdugo’s name as part of ongoing trade talks.

Whether the Red Sox are in listening mode or might be more actively shopping Verdugo, it seems that there is a possibility the right fielder might be in another uniform by Wednesday.  Such an outcome might have seemed unlikely as recently as June 27, when Verdugo was hitting .307/.379/.477 over his first 322 plate appearances and seemed on the way to the best season of his seven-year MLB career.  However, the last month of play has been rough for Verdugo, as he followed up that dream start by hitting .143/.212/.234 over his next 85 PA.

Overall, the 27-year-old has a .272/.345/.424 slash line in 412 PA, good for a 108 wRC+ that is still above league average.  And, Verdugo’s glovework hasn’t slumped, as his +15.8 UZR/150 and +11 Defensive Runs Saved rank him among the best defensive right fielders in the game in 2023.  In a deadline season where available pitchers far outnumber available hitters, the Red Sox would be sure to find plenty of interest in a productive bat who is controlled through 2024 via his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Even if Verdugo is retained beyond the deadline, it isn’t clear if he is in Boston’s long-term plans.  The outfielder told McAdam earlier today that “there’s been zero talks about an extension….they haven’t come to me with anything.  So there’s not one way to lead me to believe that they’re interested in that, you know what I mean?  There’s no real talks of an extension, so since there’s no real talk of getting anything done, there’s nothing to get done.”

Adam Duvall has also been mentioned as a possible Red Sox trade chip at the deadline, since the veteran outfielder is a free agent after the season.  However, in the event of a Verdugo trade, Duvall would step in as the new right fielder, joining Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran as the regular starters.  If chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom felt particularly bold, he could aim to both move Verdugo and Duvall in separate transactions, and look to obtain another outfielder with more long-term control.  Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela might also factor into Boston’s immediate plans, as he has been playing well in his first taste of Triple-A ball.

From Verdugo’s perspective, he said he wants to remain with the Red Sox but is understanding about the realities of the trade market.  Noting that he came to the Red Sox in the first place as part of the blockbuster Mookie Betts trade, Verdugo told McAdam, “I thought I wouldn’t get traded and I ended up getting traded.  This isn’t my first time and I feel like once you get traded, you don’t care….You don’t take no hard feelings.  You just go out there to play, play hard.  Wherever you are in the big leagues, it’s a blessing.”

Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo is currently slated to become a free agent after the 2024 season but is open to staying in Boston longer. “I’m all ears,” he tells Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “I do love Boston. I’ve been saying it for many years. I’ve really been able to come into my own in this organization. I like it a lot.”

However, Verdugo says that he and the club haven’t had any talks about a contract that would prevent him from hitting the open market. There’s still time for such talks to take place though and the outfielder doesn’t seem especially concerned. “However they and we want to handle it, that’s how it happens,” he says. “All in good time. It will happen when it happens.”

The 27-year-0ld is having his best season to date in 2023. His 8.9% walk rate is around league average, but his 12.1% strikeout rate is excellent, placing him in the top 10 among qualified hitters in the league. He only has five home runs on the year, but his contact approach has led to a .301/.374/.462 batting line. His 128 wRC+ indicates he’s been 28% better than the league-average hitter and represents the highest such tally of his career.

Verdugo is having a solid campaign on defense as well, having tallied nine Defensive Runs Saved, two Outs Above Average and a grade of 8.2 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Those figures all put him on pace to set personal bests in those categories by season’s end if he keeps it up. FanGraphs grades him as having produced 2.4 wins above replacement on the season, which is already better than his high of 2.1 from back in 2019 with the Dodgers. Baseball Reference gave him 3.0 WAR for that 2019 campaign but he’s already at 2.8 this year with more than half the season remaining.

If Verdugo can keep up that level of play for the rest of this year and the 2024 season, he’ll be setting himself up for a nice payday. He will turn 28 next May and will be set to become a free agent prior to his age-29 season, allowing him to market several of his prime years to potential suitors.

The Red Sox could prevent him from reaching the open market with an extension but apparently haven’t shown much interest in doing so, at least not yet. If they do have interest, it’s possible that they will sit down with Verdugo and his representatives this offseason, since contract talks during this stage of the season are rare. At that point, he will have more than five years of service time and be within a year of free agency.

Looking at some recent extensions for players in that service time bracket, there are some players obviously on a tier above Verdugo. MVP-caliber players like Francisco Lindor and Verdugo’s teammate Rafael Devers got $341MM and $313.5MM, respectively. Slightly below those guys, there’s players like Byron Buxton and Ketel Marte, who have shown MVP upside on occasion but have struggled to stay healthy for lengthy stretches. They each signed deals with lesser guarantees but heavy incentives that would allow them to earn more money if they stayed healthy, with Buxton getting $100MM and Marte $76MM.

Verdugo is a solid contributor but hasn’t quite reached the elite levels of those players. A better comparison is probably Ian Happ, who just signed a three-year, $61MM extension with the Cubs. Decent but not elite corner outfielders tend to be capped near that level even when they reach the open market. This past winter, we saw Andrew Benintendi get a $75MM guarantee over five years from the White Sox while Mitch Haniger got $43.5MM over three, as injury concerns for the latter undoubtedly tamped that down a bit.

The Red Sox have generally shied away from extensions, even with their star players, which is how Verdugo came to Boston in the first place. When the Sox were clearly not going to extend Mookie Betts, they flipped him and David Price to the Dodgers for a package of players headlined by Verdugo. More recently, Xander Bogaerts and the club couldn’t agree to a second extension and he wound up with the Padres. They bucked that trend with Devers this winter and made him their face-of-the-franchise player.

It’s fairly understandable that the Sox don’t have too much urgency to lock up Verdugo, in that they already have a long-term commitment to one corner outfielder. This offseason, they signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM guarantee that also involved paying a $15.375MM release fee to the Orix Buffaloes, his NPB team. Teams generally lean towards making their signature commitments in the middle of the diamond, with catchers, shortstops and center fielders often outpacing similar hitters in the corners. The Sox have one such deal with Trevor Story but are also significantly embedded with Devers and Yoshida. Perhaps they would prefer to save their chips to address other areas of their roster such as their pitching staff or catching corps.

Of course, these situations are always fluid. With Happ and the Cubs, the team already had significant commitments to players like Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki and nothing came together by Opening Day this year. It didn’t feel like it would get done, but the two sides finally put pen to paper on April 12, when he was just a few months away from free agency. Though it doesn’t seem like there’s much progress between the Sox and Verdugo right now, these things can come together quickly, especially when the player is open to staying.

Alex Verdugo has worked exclusively as an outfielder to this point in his professional career, but the 25-year-old is hoping for an expanded role at some point in the future. Verdugo told reporters (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) he’s hoping to serve as a two-way player by the 2023 season.

The Red Sox outfielder plans to begin a throwing program this offseason to kick off that process. While Verdugo cautioned that he didn’t want to take on a rotation role, he expressed an earnest desire to work out of the bullpen. “I don’t know if I’ll pitch next year, but definitely by 2023 I want to try to just be a two-way player,” Verdugo said “Not a (Shohei Ohtani), where he is starting and all that. I just want to be a reliever. Come in, help the boys out, something like that.”

Two-way players obviously remain quite infrequent, but they’re not without recent precedent. Ohtani is the AL MVP favorite for his stellar contributions on both sides of the ball. A two-way star of Ohtani’s caliber is unlike anything in recent memory, but a limited outfield/relief role seems more plausible. The Reds dabbled in that kind of experiment with Michael Lorenzen, giving him 83 1/3 innings of relief and six starts in center field in 2019. Anthony Gose hasn’t worked as a two-way player concurrently, but he played in the big leagues as an outfielder from 2012-16 before returning as a reliever with the Indians this season.

Verdugo certainly has the arm strength to at least make the notion of him working in relief potentially realistic. The left-handed hitter and thrower was a two-way star in high school, and he flashed intriguing upside on the mound. Baseball America named Verdugo the #55 prospect in the 2014 draft class, writing at the time that he worked his fastball into the 90s with a promising slider and changeup. BA noted that most amateur scouts actually favored Verdugo as a pitcher, with the broad consensus that his “professional future is definitely on the mound.”

The concept of Verdugo as a two-way weapon is certainly intriguing, although it sounds he’ll first have to convince his own manager to give him the opportunity. Alex Cora seemed less enthused about the prospect, telling reporters “(Verdugo) feels he can throw 97, 98 mph. I guess he used to do that. We’re like, ‘No, you’re not doing that. You’re actually going to get better physically and you have to take care of yourself.”

It’s easy to understand Cora’s seeming trepidation, since Verdugo’s plenty valuable working solely as an outfielder. He hit .289/.351/.426 (107 wRC+) over 604 plate appearances while splitting his time between all three spots on the grass this season. It remains to be seen if the Sox would allow Verdugo to take on additional work on the mound — or, of course, whether Verdugo progresses enough as a pitcher to even make that a viable question — but it’ll be an intriguing storyline to follow over the offseason and through next year. For his part, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom didn’t dismiss the idea out of hand, saying that while the Sox hadn’t discussed the matter too deeply, he wouldn’t past it past Verdugo developing into a useful pitcher based on his high school form (via Mastrodonato).