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Johnny Cueto

Marlins Looking To Add Starting Pitcher

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The Marlins pulled off one of the bigger moves of deadline season last night, acquiring back-end reliever David Robertson for a pair of promising low minors prospects. It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple additions for a Miami club that currently sits just outside the NL Wild Card picture.

Before the Robertson deal, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported that adding both a starter and a reliever were Miami’s top priorities. They moved quickly on the latter front but figure to explore the rotation market over the coming days.

It’s surprising to see the Fish looking for rotation help at first glance. For a few seasons, Miami has skewed rotation-heavy and been light on offense. As a result, the Marlins dealt Pablo López to Minnesota for Luis Arraez in an effort to balance the roster.

That said, the Marlins’ rotation has been more good than exceptional in 2023. They rank 11th in starting pitching ERA, allowing 4.11 earned runs per nine innings. They’re third in strikeout rate (25.4%), 11th in walks (7.5%) and third in grounder percentage (45.9%). Starting pitching certainly hasn’t been a weakness, but it hasn’t been quite as effective as last year’s group — which ranked eighth in ERA behind a Cy Young performance from Sandy Alcantara.

Some amount of regression was probably inevitable. The López trade subtracted arguably Miami’s second-best starter. The Marlins rearranged their infield, installing Arraez at second base to push Jazz Chisholm to the outfield. They signed Jean Segura to move to third and dealt away Miguel Rojas while moving Joey Wendle to shortstop. All those transactions were designed to add offense — and the Arraez trade in particular has achieved that — but come with the expected effect of reducing the defensive efficiency behind a ground-ball heavy pitching staff.

That’s among the reasons for Alcantara’s step back, although there are myriad factors whenever a pitcher’s ERA jumps more than two runs (from 2.28 to 4.46). They’re obviously not going to displace Alcantara from the rotation, but his relative down season magnifies some of the other challenges Miami has faced.

Trevor Rogers has been on the injured list since the middle of April; a partial tear in his non-throwing shoulder leaves him with an uncertain return timetable. Free agent pickup Johnny Cueto lost a couple months to injury and was knocked around on his minor league rehab stint. Miami broke him in as a reliever before moving him back into the rotation last weekend.

Top prospect Eury Pérez has had a brilliant start to his MLB career, but he’s back in the minors temporarily as the club keeps an eye on his workload. The 20-year-old has already set a personal high with 86 2/3 innings between Double-A and the majors this season. Bryan Hoeing has gotten six starts but allowed a 6.66 ERA in 24 1/3 frames over that stretch. He’s been much better in a multi-inning relief role.

There have also been signs of promise, of course. Jesús Luzardo has taken another step forward and looks like a #2 caliber starter. Braxton Garrett, who opened the season in the minors, has stepped up with a 4.32 ERA and above-average peripherals through 100 innings. Edward Cabrera is missing plenty of bats and racking up grounders, though he’s walking over 14% of opponents and has an ERA approaching 5.00.

Miami has plenty of high-upside arms who are capable of starting a playoff game if they play into October. They don’t need to shop at the top of the rotation market. There’s some sense in adding a stable back-end starter to ease the workload on some of Miami’s younger arms — in effect playing the role the Marlins envisioned from Cueto when they signed him in January.

While rotation help now seems to be the front office’s priority, Ng and her group will also certainly remain on the lookout for ways to add to the lineup. They’ve been loosely linked to Jeimer Candelario and Tim Anderson within the past week. Rosenthal writes that Miami made a run at first baseman Carlos Santana before the Pirates dealt him to Milwaukee. The Marlins should have a few irons in the fire over the next few days as a somewhat surprising entrant into the rotation market.

Marlins Reinstate Johnny Cueto, Transfer Jonathan Davis To 60-Day IL

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The Marlins made a few roster moves today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Right-hander Johnny Cueto was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with righty Sean Reynolds optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To open a spot for Cueto on the 40-man roster, outfielder Jonathan Davis was transferred to the 60-day IL. Cueto will not rejoin the rotation initially, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

The Marlins signed Cueto, 37, in the offseason to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, which came in the form of a $6MM salary this year and a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM club option for 2024. That deal came on the heels of a strong 2022 campaign wherein Cueto tossed 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox with a 3.35 ERA. The move initially seeded somewhat curious since the Fish already had a stacked rotation, but it was just over a week later that they flipped Pablo López and a couple of prospect to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez.

Cueto opened the season in the club’s rotation alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. However, he left his first start after recording just three outs due to right biceps tightness. He started a rehab assignment in early May, though that was shut down after just one appearance. Rehab assignments come with a 30-day maximum for pitchers, though they are sometimes halted due to renewed soreness or a new injury. He started a second assignment June 11 and the 30 days of that are now up, which prompted today’s moves.

However, it seems Cueto won’t be returned to the rotation, as mentioned above. In the 26 2/3 innings he’s thrown on his most recent rehab assignment, he allowed 27 earned runs, leading to a 9.11 ERA. He struck out just 11.1% of batters faced in that time. Reading the stat line on rehab assignments can be misleading, as pitchers might be more focused on mechanics and velocity as opposed to results. But it’s telling that the Marlins evidently aren’t willing to slot him back into the rotation.

Since Cueto’s been gone, there have been a few changes in the club’s starting mix. Cabrera and Rogers are each on the injured list as well, though Cabrera was recently sent out on a rehab assignment and could be an option shortly after the All-Star break. With those injuries, the club has given opportunities to pitchers like Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Garrett has a 3.70 ERA while Hoeing is at 4.54.

Another wild card in this deck is Eury Pérez. The 20-year-old rookie came into the year as one of the top prospects in the league and has delivered on that hype as the Marlins were dealing with those injuries. He posted a 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts but the club recently optioned him to the minors on account of workload concerns. Since he’s already set a personal high for innings pitched in a season, they want to tap the brakes a bit and save some gas for later in the year and perhaps the postseason.

With Rogers on the shelf and Pérez on ice, it seems the club will proceed with a rotation core of Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett and Hoeing for now, with Cabrera perhaps joining them just over the horizon, leaving Cueto in the bullpen for the time being. He could perhaps rejoin the rotation down the line if another injury pops up, though it will perhaps depend on the timing with the return of Pérez presumably coming at some point.

As for Davis, it’s not a shock to see him wind up on the 60-day IL. He recently required meniscus surgery and is expected to miss the next three to six months. This move means he will be ineligible to return until early September, which wasn’t in the cards anyway.

Marlins Notes: Perez, Cueto, Rogers, Chisholm

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Right-hander Eury Perez has been just about everything the Marlins could have hoped for when they promoted the 20-year-old top prospect to the majors directly from the Double-A level. In eight major league starts this season, Perez has posted a sensational 1.54 ERA in 41 innings of work. While those numbers are already fantastic, Perez has been even more impressive over his last five starts. In that time, he’s allowed a microscopic ERA of just 0.33 while striking out 29 in 27 innings and walking just 7.8% of batters faced. A single solo home run represents the only baserunner to cross home plate against Perez during that period.

With the youngster on such an impressive run of late, one might assume that the Marlins plan to continue riding the wave of Perez’s success as the club attempts to parlay a solid start to the season into a playoff appearance. After all, Miami’s 43-34 record leaves them in second place in their division and firmly in the NL wild card picture alongside the Giants and Dodgers. According to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, however, the plan might not be that simple. While Mish notes that Perez is expected to make at least two more starts, one tomorrow against the Pirates and the other next weekend against the Braves, he also notes that pumping the brakes on Perez from then until after the All Star break is “something [that’s] under consideration.”

Mish’s report comes on the heels of him noting earlier this month that the Marlins were planning to “slow down” Perez in order to manage his innings and hopefully leave him healthy and available for the end of the 2023 campaign and a potential postseason run. Perez has already thrown 72 innings between Double-A and the majors this season despite the fact that he’s never thrown more than 77 innings in a season during his professional career. With Perez’s arm quickly heading toward uncharted territory, it’s somewhat understandable for Miami to exercise caution with their young phenom, even as the club is in the middle of a surprisingly competitive season.

Should Perez indeed take a seat for a few turns through the rotation, the Marlins will have to find another starter to line up alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Bryan Hoeing. Miami’s rotation depth has been tested significantly throughout the season, with each of Edward Cabrera, Johnny Cueto, and Trevor Rogers currently on the injured list. The club has indicated that Cabrera’s stay on the IL is expected to be a brief one, though, and Cueto is also progressing towards a return (as noted by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald) after his third rehab start at the Triple-A level on Thursday.

Rogers, on the other hand, is not expected back any time soon. Per McPherson, the left-hander is dealing with a partial tear in his right lat, an ailment Rogers himself tells reporters is rather rare for left-handed pitchers. On a more optimistic note, Rogers notes that he believes he’ll be able to avoid surgery, and that he’s currently hoping to have more clarity on when he can resume throwing following the All Star break. Rogers, of course, impressed in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings of work en route to the first All Star appearance of his career. The lefty hasn’t measured up to that career year since then, however, with a 5.26 ERA and 4.32 FIP in 27 starts since the start of the 2022 campaign.

McPherson also discussed the timetable for center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s return to action, which manager Skip Schumaker told reporters could come as soon as the club’s upcoming road trip through Boston and Atlanta, which is set to start on Tuesday. It’s been a mixed year for Chisholm so far, as the 25 year old has slashed just .229/.291/.403 coming off an All Star appearance in 2022. That performance is good for a wRC+ of just 90, 10% below league average. On the other hand, the youngster has taken to his new and difficult defensive position admirably despite his lack of experience; his +3 OAA in center field ranks in the 86th percentile of all fielders this season despite Chisholm having played just 39 games.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: NL East

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the NL West and NL Central. Closing out the Senior Circuit:

Atlanta Braves

The Braves and Morton have had a productive relationship for the past few years. He’s signed a series of successive one-year contracts and served as an effective mid-rotation presence. A home run spike resulted in a 4.34 ERA last season but the Braves remained confident in Morton’s still-strong velocity and strikeout and walk numbers. They’ve gotten exactly what they’ve expected from the 39-year-old. He has a 3.59 ERA with a solid 24.5% strikeout rate and is still averaging north of 95 MPH on his fastball. If Morton maintains this form for a full season and wants to continue playing, it stands to reason Atlanta would have interest in bringing him back.

Rosario re-signed on a two-year contract after his 2021 postseason heroics helped Atlanta to a title. He’s always been a streaky performer, however, and the past two seasons haven’t been effective. Rosario hit just .212/.259/.328 in 80 games last year. There was some hope a corrective eye surgery could enable a bounceback but he’s only been slightly better in 2023. Rosario carries a .239/.269/.405 line in 171 trips to the plate. The Braves could pursue left field upgrades via trade this summer and are likely to cut Rosario loose at the end of the season.

d’Arnaud has been a quality catcher for Atlanta for the past few seasons. Last year’s .268/.319/.472 showing didn’t stop the Braves from a blockbuster acquisition of Sean Murphy, who is playing at a down-ballot MVP pace through two months. That pushed d’Arnaud into a backup/designated hitter role for which he’s arguably overqualified.

A concussion has limited d’Arnaud to 17 games thus far. He’s hitting .297/.318/.406 over 66 trips to the plate. An $8MM price point is solid value if the veteran continues to perform at his recent levels. Even with Murphy entrenched as Atlanta’s franchise backstop, the Braves were comfortable keeping d’Arnaud around as a highly-priced #2 option. They could do so again in 2024 or exercise the option and look to trade him this winter, as the Brewers did with second baseman Kolten Wong last offseason.

McHugh inked a two-year free agent deal over the 2021-22 offseason. He was brilliant in year one, throwing 69 1/3 innings of 2.60 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He hasn’t come close to that form through this season’s first couple months. McHugh’s 3.54 ERA through 20 1/3 frames is respectable, but he’s punched out a meager 11.6% of opponents against a personal-worst 10.5% walk rate. The option price isn’t exorbitant and McHugh could yet pitch his way into it being exercised. He’ll need to miss more bats, though.

It’s a somewhat similar story with Yates. He signed a buy-low free agent deal in the middle of a Tommy John rehab during the 2021-22 offseason. Yates made a brief return late last season but hasn’t gotten an extended stretch of action until 2023. He’s missing bats on a solid 12.7% of his offerings and has an above-average 29.1% strikeout rate.

The righty’s control hasn’t come back yet, however. He’s walked 17.4% of opposing hitters and is relying on a .214 batting average on balls in play to keep his ERA at 3.26. Whether he can dial in the strike-throwing as he gets more reps probably determines if the Braves keep him around on a net $4.5MM decision.

Miami Marlins

Cueto signed an $8.5MM guarantee with Miami on the heels of a bounceback showing with the White Sox. It was an odd fit on a Marlins club with ample rotation depth and it hasn’t yet panned out. The 37-year-old got through just one inning in his season debut before suffering a biceps injury. He subsequently sprained his left ankle while on a minor league rehab stint and is on the 60-day injured list. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relayed on Tuesday that he’s up to 40 pitches in a bullpen session. A return probably isn’t too far off, but Cueto hasn’t made an impact thus far.

Miami acquired Barnes from the Red Sox in a change-of-scenery swap for Richard Bleier at the end of January. He’s off to a fine but not overwhelming start in his new environs. Over 21 innings, the righty reliever has a 3.43 ERA with near-average strikeout and walk numbers. His average fastball velocity is at a career-low 93.3 MPH, though, and he’s only getting swinging strikes at an 8% clip. Barnes looks more like a competent middle reliever than an All-Star closer at this stage of his career. The $5.75MM gap between the option value and the buyout price will probably prove a little too much for the Marlins.

New York Mets

Canha had a productive first season in Queens after signing a two-year free agent deal. He hit .266/.367/.403 over 542 plate appearances last year. He’s been off to a slower start in 2023, posting a .242/.324/.386 line with four homers — a league average performance by measure of wRC+. Canha picked things up in May after a tough April and still holds an everyday corner outfield role, although he’s increasingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

The $9.5MM gap between the option value and the buyout isn’t a huge price to pay for a solid everyday outfielder. That’s especially true for the Mets. This one remains to be determined based on Canha’s summer performance.

Escobar was another two-year signee just prior to the lockout. He was coming off a 28-homer showing in 2021 and has some defensive flexibility. Escobar has hit at a roughly league average level as a Met, showing his typical blend of above-average power with low walk totals. That includes a .244/.289/.433 showing over 98 plate appearances this year.

Brett Baty has taken over the primary third base job, pushing Escobar into a depth role off the bench. He’s a solid utility option and by all accounts a beloved clubhouse presence but the net $8.5MM call is likely pricey for a player in that kind of role.

Acquired from the Rays over the offseason, Raley has been a solid situational bullpen arm in Queens. He owns a 2.95 ERA over 18 1/3 innings with better than average strikeout and walk numbers (25.6% and 7.7%, respectively). Raley doesn’t throw especially hard but he misses bats at a league average clip. He’s been hit around by left-handed hitters in a small sample this year but kept them to a .155/.200/.282 line in 76 plate appearances in 2022. The $4.25MM call is a reasonable price point for an effective middle innings arm. If Raley keeps up this pace, there’s a decent chance the Mets bring him back.

Note: Víctor Robles and Jon Berti each signed arbitration contracts that contained 2024 club options. They’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the options are declined and have accordingly been excluded from this list.

Marlins Select Jonathan Davis, Transfer Johnny Cueto To 60-Day IL

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The Marlins have selected the contract of outfielder Jonathan Davis, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Fellow outfielder Peyton Burdick was optioned in a corresponding move while right-hander Johnny Cueto was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man.

Davis, 31, was acquired from the Tigers in a trade just yesterday and will immediately jump onto Miami’s roster. After signing a minor league deal with the Tigers this winter, he had hit .258/.336/.516 in 141 Triple-A appearances before the deal, launching five home runs and stealing five bases.

He has appeared in the five previous major league seasons as a part-time player, getting into 171 contests over those five campaigns. He’s hit just .185/.291/.245 in that time but swiped 18 bags and his defense has been worth eight Outs Above Average.

The Marlins have been dealing with some challenges in their outfield of late, with each of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Avisaíl García and Jesús Sánchez are on the injured list. They’ve also gotten some tepid offensive production from players like Garrett Hampson as well as Burdick, who is slashing just .182/.270/.333 through 37 plate appearances so far this year. He has a far better .293/.381/.636 in Triple-A this year but hasn’t been able to translate it to the big leagues. He’ll now head back to the farm for some more work down there.

As for Cueto, 37, he was placed on the injured list with right biceps tightness after lasting just one inning in his first start of the year. He has recently been playing catch, per McPherson, but has yet to begin a rehab assignment. He’ll now be officially ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which was April 4. That means he can’t return prior to June 3 but that didn’t seem to be a likely outcome anyhow. Once he’s healthy, he’ll need a few weeks to ramp back up to a full starter’s workload, essentially redoing his Spring Training.

It’s certainly not the ideal outcome that the Marlins had hoped for when signing Cueto to a one-year, $8.5MM deal this winter, though their rotation is in decent shape without him. They recently called up top prospect Eury Pérez to join Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett. That keeps them in good form for the time being, but Cueto’s absence will mean they have one less depth option on hand. The Marlins have a $10.5MM club option for 2024 with a $2.5MM buyout, making it a net $8 decision.

Injury Notes: Cueto, Kelly, Acevedo

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Right-hander Johnny Cueto departed his first outing for the Marlins after recording just three outs and was later placed on the 15-day injured list with biceps tightness. The club hasn’t provided any updates on his expected return timeline but Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald provided a pessimistic update this week, reporting that Cueto could be out of action for several weeks.

That still doesn’t provide much clarity, though it does at least indicate that the 37-year-old Cueto seems ticketed for more than a minimum stay on the IL. That’s a frustrating development for the club, who just signed Cueto to a one-year, $8.5MM deal this offseason. It now seems possible that the veteran could miss a decent chunk of the campaign. He’s coming off a strong 2022 season, but injuries have had an impact on him in previous years. He only made 13 starts over 2018 and 2019 combined due to an ankle injury and Tommy John surgery. He then struggled in 2020 before having improved results over 2021 and 2022.

Without Cueto, the Marlins should still have a good rotation consisting of Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett, though the depth will be weaker as long as Cueto is out of the picture. The club has a $10.5MM option for his services in 2024 that comes with a $2.5MM buyout. How they feel about that net $8MM decision will surely be impacted by when he returns and how effective he looks at that point.

Some other injury notes from around the league…

  • The Red Sox announced earlier today that they recalled right-hander Kutter Crawford while placing fellow righty Zack Kelly on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported on the moves prior to the official announcement. Kelly was removed from yesterday’s game in obvious distress, both physical and emotional, alternating between grabbing at his elbow area and hiding his face in his hands. “Definitely emotional for two reasons,” Kelly said to Cotillo after the game. “One, because I care. I care about this game, these guys and I enjoy doing this. Two, just all the s*** I went through to get here. It’s just a lot. Whenever something like that happens, you get emotional about it.” Kelly, 28, was an undrafted free agent who toiled away in the minors for many years before finally reaching the big leagues last year. He posted a 3.95 ERA over 13 appearances in 2022 and had a 3.68 mark through six games here in 2023. More information will surely come after Kelly and the club do further testing, but it’s a concerning development for a guy who has obviously walked a long road to make it to the big leagues.
  • The Athletics placed right-hander Domingo Acevedo on the 15-day injured list yesterday. It seems it was an unfortunate freak accident that led to this move, as manager Mark Kotsay told Joe Trezza of MLB.com that Acevedo slipped walking into the dugout on Monday and suffered a left back strain. It’s unclear how long he will be out of action, but the issue is significant enough that Acevedo underwent an MRI, with those results still not publicly known. The 29-year-old righty had a solid season last year, posting a 3.33 ERA over 70 appearances for the A’s, striking out 21.8% of opponents while walking just 6.4%. He has a 13.50 ERA this year, but in a small sample of just five appearances. His return to action will become more clear once the club gets a chance to examine his MRI results.

Marlins To Place Johnny Cueto, Joey Wendle On IL

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The Marlins have made a batch of roster moves, per their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Left-hander Braxton Garrett and infielder Garrett Hampson were recalled from the minors, while left-hander Daniel Castano had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, right-hander Johnny Cueto was placed on the 15-day injured list with right biceps tightness, infielder Joey Wendle was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right intercostal strain and right-hander Jeff Lindgren was designated for assignment. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported some of these moves earlier today (Twitter links).

Cueto, 37, signed a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Marlins this offseason, with that deal containing a club option for 2024. The veteran had a strong bounceback in 2022 after struggling with injuries and underperformance in the preceding seasons. With the White Sox last year, he tossed 158 1/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA. He struck out just 15.7% of batters he faced but limited walks to a tiny 5.1% rate. He made his debut with the Marlins last night but departed after throwing just 30 pitches, having already allowed four runs while recording only three outs.

It’s unclear how long the club expects Cueto to be out of action but this IL placement indicates it will be at least a couple of weeks. In his absence, they should still have a strong front four of Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. Garrett opened in the season in a long relief role but was optioned just yesterday. He’d normally have to wait 15 days before rejoining the team but an exception is made when someone is placed on the injured list. He will likely jump into the back of the rotation after posting a 3.58 ERA in 17 starts last year.

Lindgren, 26, was only just added to the roster yesterday. When Cueto departed with his injury, Lindgren stepped in and tossed five innings of emergency long relief, allowing four earned runs, four walks and three hits without recording a strikeout. The Fish will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He tossed 136 2/3 innings in the minors last year with a 4.21 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.

Since Lindgren tossed 80 pitches last night, he likely wouldn’t have been available for a few days. In his stead, Castano will likely take over the long man gig. The left-hander has thrown 85 2/3 innings for the Marlins over the previous three seasons, posting a 3.89 ERA despite a 12% strikeout rate. He’s kept his walks down to a 7.5% clip and gotten grounders on 44.5% of balls in play. He was designated for assignment in January when Cueto’s signing became official but cleared waivers and stuck with the organization, now getting his roster spot back. He tossed six innings in a Triple-A start on Friday and should be able to eat some innings if needed.

Wendle, 33 later this month, was bumped up to the club’s top shortstop option with this offseason’s trade of Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers. Wendle sat out last night’s game due to oblique soreness, which has now been diagnosed as a strain. It’s not known how long he is expected to be out but even mild oblique/intercostal strains can lead to weeks-long absences.

With Wendle on the shelf, the Fish will likely turn to Jon Berti and Hampson to cover the shortstop position. The latter had spent his entire career with the Rockies until he was non-tendered at the end of last season. The Marlins signed him to a minor league deal and then selected him to the 40-man in mid-March to prevent him from triggering an opt-out. Hampson has never hit much, posting a career batting line of .235/.296/.370 despite playing half his games at Coors Field. But he does have 52 stolen bases in 419 career games and the ability to play all over the field. He’s played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as some time in center and left.

Padres Remain Narrowly Below $273MM Third CBT Threshold After Wacha Deal

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The Padres finalized their agreement with starter Michael Wacha this morning. That pact contained options from both the team and player perspective designed to meet the right-hander’s asking price while keeping the deal’s average annual value down for luxury tax purposes. It’s officially a four-year, $26MM guarantee, leading to a $6.5MM CBT hit.

That contract structure brings the Padres’ estimated luxury tax number around $272.2MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s about $800K shy of the $273MM mark that delineates the third threshold of tax penalization. Public payroll figures are estimates, though Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirm with team officials the club remains narrowly below the $273MM figure. That’s no coincidence, of course, with the Padres’ front office intentionally structuring some recent contracts to add to the roster while staying under that threshold.

At the start of the offseason, the Friars signed Nick Martinez to a deal that was similarly built with dual club/player options and technically came out to an approximate $8.667MM average annual value. More recently, San Diego’s extension negotiations with Yu Darvish were shaped by the team’s CBT situation. The Friars signed the All-Star righty to a five-year, $90MM extension covering the 2024-28 seasons last week. That paired with Darvish’s preexisting $18MM salary for the upcoming season to result in a matching tax hit. Before the extension, Darvish had counted for $21MM against the luxury tax (reflecting the AAV of his prior front-loaded six-year, $126MM agreement with the Cubs). The extension trimmed $3MM off the team’s tax bill this year, which freed up breathing room under the $273MM mark for the Wacha money.

In the process, San Diego made a commitment to Darvish running through his age-41 season. Investing for that long in a pitcher of his age certainly isn’t without risk, though it’s one the Friars preferred to a shorter-term deal that could’ve come with higher annual salaries. Lin and Rosenthal report that Darvish’s camp initially broached extension talks seeking a two-year, $60MM deal. Instead, the Padres made a longer commitment that guarantees the veteran hurler an extra $30MM altogether but comes at a much lower annual value.

According to the Athletic, San Diego also pursued a multi-year guarantee with player options for Johnny Cueto before he signed with the Marlins last month. San Diego was known to be involved in the Cueto market. Rather than accept a deal similar to the ones Martinez and Wacha ended up taking, Cueto took a one-year, $8.5MM pact with a 2024 club option from the Marlins.

Ultimately, the Padres’ maneuverings allow them to open Spring Training a hair south of the third tax threshold. A team’s luxury tax number is calculated at the end of the season, not during exhibition play or on Opening Day. Depending on how much room exists below $273MM, the Friars could certainly wind up above that number — either by making a midseason acquisition via trade or waivers or simply by selecting the contract of a non-roster Spring Training invitee whose deal contains a base salary above the league minimum (i.e. Pedro Severino).

For the time being, however, the organization has an obvious desire to keep south of the $273MM figure. Finishing a season above the third tax threshold results in a team’s top draft choice for the following year (2024, in this instance) being moved back ten spots. It also subjects a team to higher payments. The Friars are set to pay a 50% tax on any spending between $233MM and $253MM and a 62% fee on spending between $253MM and $273MM. They’d be taxed at a 90% rate on spending from $273MM to $293MM. The latter penalties are ones they’re clearly looking to avoid right now.

San Diego heads into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. Perhaps they’ll eventually go beyond the third threshold to maximize this roster’s chances of contending. As of now, they project for the third-highest CBT payroll in the majors. The Mets are running away from the rest of the league in spending, while the Yankees are reportedly just under the final tax threshold at $293MM and reluctant to surpass that figure.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

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Marlins Designate Daniel Castano For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated left-hander Daniel Castano for assignment, tweets Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base (Twitter link). Castano’s spot on the roster will go to right-hander Johnny Cueto, whose previously reported one-year, $8.5MM contract has now been made official. Cueto was formally introduced this morning at Miami’s loanDepot Park.

Castano, 28, was one of four players the Marlins acquired in the heist that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, coming to Miami alongside Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen (since traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr.) and Magneuris Sierra. The left-hander has appeared in each of the past three seasons with the Marlins, logging a combined 3.89 ERA in 85 2/3 innings of work.

That solid ERA, however, has been accompanied by a 12% strikeout rate that ranks as the lowest of any pitcher in baseball dating back to 2020 (min. 80 innings). Castano has partially offset that lack of missed bats with a better-than-average 7.5% walk rate, a solid 44.7% ground-ball rate and a repeated knack for avoiding hard contact; his career 87.6 mph exit velocity, 7% barrel rate, 35.9% hard-hit rate (all as measured by Statcast) are each better than those of the average MLB hurler. Still, fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.86) and SIERA (5.28) are more bearish on the left-hander than his more rudimentary ERA.

Castano’s 12.8% strikeout rate in the big leagues this past season was right in line with his career mark, but that’s a bit odd to see, given that he also overhauled his pitch mix and experienced a sharp uptick in strikeouts in Triple-A. Castano moved away from his four-seamer and sinker in favor of a cutter that he tossed at a hefty 41% clip. In Triple-A, the shift in his repertoire perhaps contributed to a career-best 26.4% strikeout rate. That wasn’t necessarily in a tiny sample, either; Castano’s 34 Triple-A frames were almost an exact match for his 35 2/3 Major League innings. It stands to reason, then, that even if Castano won’t see his MLB strikeout rate climb to quite those same heights, there’s perhaps reason to believe there’s more bat-missing ability in the tank than he’s shown in the Majors just yet.

Unfortunately for Castano, injuries robbed him of the chance to display more of that new-look cutter down the stretch. Castano landed on the shelf with a concussion in late July after being struck in the head by a 104 mph liner, and while he was working his back from that frightening scene, the Marlins discovered a small tear in his shoulder. He didn’t require surgery but also did not pitch again in 2022.

The Marlins will now have a week to trade Castano or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will need to carry him on the roster or else try to pass Castano through waivers themselves. That said, he’s a lefty with a starter’s pedigree and some success in the upper minors, solid command and weak contact rates in the big leagues, and a somewhat intriguing new pitch that he began to lean on this past season. He can also be controlled for five more seasons. It’s certainly feasible that a pitching-needy club could place a claim or work out a small trade to acquire Castano.

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