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Josh Bell

Nationals, Josh Bell Avoid Arbitration

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The Nationals and newly-acquired first baseman Josh Bell avoided arbitration today, coming to an agreement on a one-year, $6.3MM contract, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Bell made $4.8MM in 2020, his first season of arbitration eligibility. The Scott Boras client will be a free agent following the 2022 season.

Our initial projections had Bell set to make between $5.1MM and  $7.2MM through arbitration, so the Nationals might have earned themselves a little extra spending money by coming to an early accord. Regardless, Bell expects to have a better year in 2021 after a relatively rough campaign in the truncated 2020 season.

Even after slashing .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances this year, Bell still owns a career line of .261/.349/.466. A strikeout rate of 26.5 percent was particularly high compared to his career average of 19.0 percent. Assuming a regression to his career means, Bell should provide the Nats with efficient production in 2021 given his salary. Besides, with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber figuring to hit somewhere close and perhaps on either side of Bell in Washington’s lineup, Bell should benefit from the ambient potency.

Soto and Trea Turner represent the Nationals only remaining arbitration cases.

NL Notes: Bell, Pirates, Boras, Cubs, Marlins

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Before the Pirates traded Josh Bell to the Nationals, the team had some cursory negotiations about an extension with the first baseman’s agent Scott Boras, Bell told reporters (including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic).  The two sides went “back and forth” on a long-term deal, Bell said, “but in regards to numbers or anything like that, I don’t think it ever got to that point.”  Bell is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, when he’ll be 30 years old. 

Given how the Pirates appear to be open to dealing virtually anyone as they rebuild their team, it’s fair to wonder whether even an extension might have kept Bell in Pittsburgh — some clubs might have intrigued at having additional years of control and added cost certainty.  Then again, given how Bell struggled in 2020, trade suitors might have balked at paying significant guaranteed money to a player coming off such a tough year.  Regardless, Bell will need a strong bounce-back year with the Nationals to ensure himself at least a bigger arbitration raise in 2022, and to help build his case for either an extension with Washington or a notable free agent payday in two years’ time.

More from the National League…

  • Speaking of Boras, the agent recently appeared on a podcast with NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer and Maddie Lee to discuss the Cubs and Boras client Kris Bryant (and former Cub and current free agent Jake Arrieta), plus also several bigger-picture issues surrounding the game.  The podcast explores such topics such as the offseason free agent market, the upcoming CBA talks and the relationship between the league and the players’ union, the business of baseball at the ownership level, and much more.
  • Francisco Cervelli provided the Marlins with some pop behind the plate last season, but after the veteran’s season was cut short by a concussion (that led to Cervelli’s retirement), neither Jorge Alfaro or Chad Wallach delivered much hitting-wise.  However, while another catcher could still be added, it looks like the Marlins are still planning to deploy Alfaro and Wallach as the primary catching duo going into 2021, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald writes.  The team is hopeful that Alfaro can become a more reliable defensive option and also unlock the batting potential that made him such a highly-touted prospect — Alfaro has delivered some decent numbers in his young career but with a lot of strikeouts and not much consistency.  Wallach, meanwhile, offers more solid glovework, but little in the way of offensive production.

Quick Hits: Nats, Bell, Zimmerman, A’s, Giants, Codify, White Sox, Vaughn

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The Nationals accomplished a big part of their winter to-do list when they acquired Josh Bell from the Pirates on Christmas Eve. “He exemplifies everything we’re trying to do here in Washington,” GM Mike Rizzo told NBCSports’ Todd Dybas and others during a Zoom call this afternoon (via Twitter). Bell fits the clubhouse ethos the Nats work hard to maintain while being a near-perfect on-field fit to join Juan Soto in the middle of the lineup. Ryan Zimmerman could still return to the Nats, per the Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli (via Twitter), as Rizzo notes that a right-handed bench bat remains an area of need  [UPDATE: A new contract between Zimmerman and the Nationals “seems inevitable,” Ghiroli hears from sources.]

  • Michael Fisher is helping pitchers take a proactive approach to retiring hitters through his data-analytics firm called Codify, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Rather than telling pitchers what they’re doing wrong, he creates heat maps to help pitchers find the right areas to target. He focuses on where they should throw the ball instead of where they shouldn’t. Fisher’s approach works for a number of Oakland A’s pitchers like Jake Diekman, Jesus Luzardo, and Sean Manaea, Giants’ hurlers Tyler Beede and Logan Webb, as well as free agent closer Liam Hendriks.
  • Despite the additions already made this offseason, the White Sox could use some more rotation depth, a closer, and a designated hitter, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Andrew Vaughn could be called upon to fill that designated hitter role or to spell MVP Jose Abreu at first base. Vaughn figured to be a fast-riser when the White Sox made him the No. 3 overall selection of the 2019 draft, and he made it to High-A in his first professional season. Had there been a minor league season in 2020, Vaughn might be ready for the Show, but under the circumstances, the Sox could look for a stopgap solution to give Vaughn some seasoning time and further build their offensive depth.

Reactions To The Josh Bell Trade

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The Pirates and Nationals lined up on a deal yesterday that sent first baseman Josh Bell to Washington for a pair of right-handed pitching prospects, Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. Some reporting in the aftermath of the deal:

  • The Pirates have made no secret about their desire to move players off the big league roster for future value this offseason. Trading Bell certainly doesn’t figure to be Pittsburgh’s final move of this ilk, as general manager Ben Cherington acknowledged. “Likely won’t be the last one. There will probably be more,” Cherington told reporters (including Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). “I’m not saying that to predict anything, that’s the realization, that’s where we are.” Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier are the Pirates’ most prominent potential trade candidates, but any of Richard Rodríguez, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, Chris Stratton and Jacob Stallings could plausibly hold appeal to other teams.
  • Crowe will compete for a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation in 2021, Cherington confirmed (via Gorman). That’s hardly a surprise; the 26-year-old spent most of 2018-19 in the high minors and made his MLB debut this past season. Crowe was shelled in his three big league starts, but that’s nowhere near enough of a sample to rule him out as a near-term rotation option. Musgrove, Mitch Keller, Jameson Taillon, Kuhl, Brault and J.T. Brubaker all might be ahead of Crowe on the depth chart at the moment. It seems likely one or more of those players will themselves wind up traded before Opening Day.
  • Of the two prospects acquired by the Pirates, Crowe is the more familiar name thanks to his big league experience. Yean, though, was the more appealing get for the Pittsburgh front office, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. That sentiment was shared by the Nationals, it seems. Washington “(doesn’t) believe they gave up a lot to fill a glaring hole” on the roster, writes Dougherty, largely because they were “lukewarm” about Crowe’s future. On the other hand, ESPN’s Buster Olney points out (via Twitter) that Bell’s profile (slugger at the bottom of the defensive spectrum) is the kind that teams have devalued in recent years. For what it’s worth, the MLBTR readership seemed to favor the Nationals’ end of the trade.

Pirates Trade Josh Bell To Nationals

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The Nationals have a new first baseman. In an out-of-the-blue Christmas Eve swap, Washington has acquired Josh Bell from the Pirates in exchange for right-handed pitchers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean, according to announcements from both clubs.

Josh Bell

Bell, 28, fills the Nationals’ void at first base and gives the club a switch-hitting power bat to pair with Juan Soto in the heart of the order. Like most of the Pirates’ lineup, Bell struggled in 2020, hitting just .226/.305/.364 with a career-high 26.5 percent strikeout rate. However, outside of last year’s shortened season, Bell has been a productive big league hitter throughout his career.

The Pirates selected Bell with the 61st overall pick in 2011 and paid him a then-record $5MM signing bonus, shattering the recommended slot value to convince Bell to forgo his college commitment. The 6’4″ slugger rated as one of the game’s top prospects throughout his minor league tenure and was a productive hitter each season from 2016-18, posting a combined .260/.348/.436 batting line — good for a 110 wRC+ (put another way: overall production that was 10 percent better than a league-average hitter).

In 2019, Bell erupted with a breakout, 37-homer campaign that led to his first All-Star nod. Tapping into the raw power for which he’d long been touted, Bell raked at a .277/.367/.569 clip, adding in 37 doubles and three triples while plating 116 runs in just 143 games played. It’s worth noting that he tailed off in the second half, and those struggles carried over into the aforementioned down year in 2020. The Nats are buying in the belief that Bell can be much closer to that 2019 All-Star who looked to be emerging as one of the league’s premier power bats.

Bell is eligible for arbitration for the second time this winter and has yet to settle on a salary for the 2021 campaign. He’s owed a raise on last year’s $4.8MM salary and is now under Nationals control through the 2022 season

The Bell acquisition gives the Nats an everyday option at first base, which could complicate any potential reunion with Ryan Zimmerman, although the two could certainly form a quality pairing at the position. Although Bell is a switch-hitter, he’s vastly better from the left side of the dish, so if the Nats want to bring Zimmerman back for a 16th season, “Mr. National” could move into a bench role and spell Bell against tougher lefties. Of course, if the National League brings back the designated hitter for the 2021 season, Bell could fill that role full-time for the Nats. That could be a best-case scenario for Washington, as Bell is regarded as a well below-average defender at his position.

In return for two years of Bell, the Pirates will net an immediate rotation piece in the 26-year-old Crowe — a former second-round pick himself (2017). The 6’2″, 228-pound Crowe made his big league debut in 2020, starting three games for the Nats but being tagged for 11 runs in 8 1/3 innings. That’s a minuscule sample on which to judge Crowe, however. The right-hander has been considered one of the Nats’ best prospects since the day he was drafted. While he’s had knee and elbow injuries in the past — including Tommy John surgery while pitching at the University of South Carolina —  he set career-highs in starts (26) and innings (149 1/3) during his last full season in 2019.

Baseball America recently ranked Crowe 10th among Nationals farmhands, and was the team’s No. 3 prospect at MLB.com on their midseason rankings and No. 4 at FanGraphs. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel wrote in that FanGraphs report that Crowe has three above-average pitches and a promising changeup but “imprecise control” of his arsenal and some durability concerns because of that injury track record. Crowe was hammered for a 6.17 ERA in his lone Triple-A experience, although that came while pitching in an outrageously hitter-friendly setting in 2019 — both due to the juiced ball in Triple-A and the conditions of Fresno’s park in the Pacific Coast League.

It remains to be seen whether the Pirates will plug Crowe directly into the rotation or give him some additional time in Triple-A in 2021, but it’d be a surprise if he weren’t called to the big leagues at some point next season. Pittsburgh currently projects to have Joe Musgrove, Mitch Keller, Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl and a returning Jameson Taillon in its rotation, though Musgrove, Brault and Kuhl have all been discussed in trade talks as well. Further transactions between now and Opening Day could very well to alter that composition to some extent.

The 19-year-old Yean is a much longer-term play for the Pirates, although it’s arguable that he’s the more appealing piece of the deal. Baseball America’s updated ranking of the Nationals’ farm has Yean two spots higher than Crowe, touting an “explosive” fastball that reaches 97 mph and could climb higher as he continues to grow. Yean throws both a four-seamer and two-seamer in addition to a slider and a changeup. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, Yean has the type of velocity, breaking ball and projectable frame typical of first- and second-round high school draftees, Longenhagen wrote for his Nats rankings at FanGraphs.

The Bell trade could be the first of several for the rebuilding Pirates this winter. Musgrove remains one of the more appealing arms who could change hands this offseason, and any of Brault, Kuhl, reliever Richard Rodriguez, catcher Jacob Stallings and second baseman Adam Frazier stand out as viable trade pieces. No one in the NL Central is making an aggressive push to seize the division crown, but the Pirates are the only one of the quintet who are in the midst of a full-scale rebuild. Further change is surely on the horizon under second-year general manager Ben Cherington.

The Nats, meanwhile, still have work to do. Adding a corner outfielder, at least one back-of-the-rotation starter — particularly now that they’ve subtracted Crowe from the mix — and perhaps an upgrade at catcher could all be on the horizon for GM Mike Rizzo and his staff as the Nats look to get back to their winning ways in 2021.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported that the two teams were closing in on a trade. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that an agreement of Bell for two young pitchers had been reached. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added the names of the two pitchers going to Pittsburgh.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Bell Trade

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Christmas Eve isn’t a time to expect blockbuster moves to take place in Major League Baseball, but the Nationals and Pirates came together on a significant trade Thursday. The deal left the Nationals with a new first baseman in Josh Bell, whom they acquired from the Pirates for young right-handers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean.

Bell is a potentially huge acquisition for Washington, as he was a 37-home run-hitting All-Star as recently as 2019. Otherwise, the switch-hitting 28-year-old has been closer to average than great as a hitter since he debuted in 2016. Last season was tough sledding for Bell, who hit a disappointing .226/.305/.364 with eight home runs and a career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate in 223 plate appearances. Bell still has two years of team control left (he’ll make a projected $5.1MM to $7.2MM in 2021), but the Pirates decided to sell low on him. If he returns to his previous form, Bell shouldn’t have issues improving on the Nationals’ 2020 first base trio of Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera and the now-retired Howie Kendrick. Nats first basemen finished the year 29th in fWAR (minus-0.7 fWAR) and batted .233/.305/.397.

The Pirates, who have little to no chance of competing in the near future, found Crowe and Yean enticing enough to part with Bell. Crowe is already their 17th-ranked prospect at MLB.com, which writes that he could turn into a No. 4/5 starter if he is able to refine his breaking ball and pitch usage. The 26-year-old made a brief major league debut last season, throwing 8 1/3 innings, and has notched a 4.03 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 in 290 minor league frames.

By MLB.com’s standards, Yean is a much more impressive prospect than Crowe, as it places the hard-throwing Yean seventh in the Pirates’ system. He’s just 19 years old, but combining “his stuff, size and delivery, Yean looks every bit the part of a future big league starter,” per MLB.com. Yean amassed 46 1/3 innings between the rookie and low-A levels in 2019 and put up a 3.50 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 46 1/3 frames.

What do you think of the trade for Washington and Pittsburgh? (Poll links for app users: Nationals, Pirates)

Trade/FA Notes: Yankees, Pirates, Mets, JTR, A’s, Tigers

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It was reported last week that the Yankees and Pirates have discussed Bucs right-hander Jameson Taillon and first baseman Josh Bell. It turns out the Yankees initiated those talks in an “intelligence gathering” effort, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. Even though he’s still recovering from August 2019 Tommy John surgery, it seems Taillon would be the more difficult player for the Yankees or any other team to pry from Pittsburgh. The club “would have to be blown away to deal” the 29-year-old, writes Biertempfel, who notes that Taillon is on a cheap salary ($2.25MM) and under control through 2022.

  • The Mets made their choice at catcher with the signing of James McCann, whom they added on a four-year, $40MM contract. Before picking up McCann, though, the team had “great conversations” with the best catcher in the game – free agent J.T. Realmuto – president Sandy Alderson told Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters Monday. However, with other needs to address, the Mets didn’t want to wait around for Realmuto. Alderson noted (via Steve Gelbs of SNY) that the top of the free-agent market is moving at a glacial place.
  • The Athletics “have been in touch with Tommy La Stella’s representatives,” Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. A’s executive vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst have made it clear in the past they’d like La Stella back, but this is the first indication they’re making an effort to re-sign him. The 31-year-old infielder made a good impression on the A’s after they acquired him from the Angels over the summer, wrapping up a very productive two-season run between the teams. La Stella appeared in 55 of 60 regular-season games in 2020 and batted .281/.370/.449 (129 wRC+) with five home runs in 228 plate appearances. And with 27 walks against a mere 12 strikeouts, he ranked first in the majors in K rate and BB/K ratio.
  • Tigers manager AJ Hinch discussed some of the team’s offseasons plans with MLB Network Radio on Monday, per Jason Beck of MLB.com (Twitter links). As you’d expect, one of the Tigers’ priorities is to “enhance” their pitching staff by adding at least one more starter. The Tigers have already been connected to righty Taijuan Walker in the rumor mill, but he’s far from the only affordable starter they could target in free agency. Likewise, the Tigers could choose from any number of free-agent hitters to improve their offense. “The players have to want to come to Detroit,” Hinch said of potential offensive additions. “It has to fit in our budget. We’re being patient, but we’re also being opportunistic when the time comes.”

Pirates Joe Musgrove, Adam Frazier Mentioned Most Often In Trade Talks

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A report surfaced yesterday linking two of the Pirates’ most recognizable players to trade conversations with the New York Yankees as the potential partner. The Yankees and Pirates have discussed a swap that would send Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon to the Bronx, though there’s no indication the two sides are close on a deal.

The Pirates would be selling low on both players, with Taillon on his way back from Tommy John and Bell coming off a rough 2020. Given Pittsburgh’s overall lack of appealing trade assets – and the Pirates’ need to maximize said assets – it would be surprising to see the Pirates part with the pair for anything less than what would seem like an overpay, given the pair’s current circumstances.

There’s another duo of Pirates whose names have been bandied about the trade wire even more often, however. Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier have been the most frequently mentioned names in trade conversations, according to MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

Musgrove has arguably been the most consistent presence in the Buccos’ rotation since his arrival in the much-ballyhooed Gerrit Cole trade. A former first round draft choice of the Toronto Blue Jays, the former Astro has put up 3.6 bWAR in three seasons with the Pirates, pitching to a 4.23 ERA/3.69 FIP over 325 1/3 innings spanning 58 starts. Musgrove should make a very palatable salary in the range of $3.8MM his second time through arbitration, plus any acquiring team would get one final season of control beyond 2021.

Musgrove’s strikeout rate jumped to 12.48 K/9 over eight starts in 2020, well above his previous career-high of 8.30 K/9. His walk rate jumped with it, however, to a career-high 3.6 BB/9. His overall K/BB ratio of 3.44 K/BB actually tied with his rookie season for the lowest mark in his career. Still, there are some who see the 28-year-old as a potential breakout candidate, including Tim Williams of Pittsburgh Baseball.

Williams notes that Frazier profiles as a solid utility option for a contender. Frazier’s primary position is second base, but he’s appeared all over the outfield for the Pirates. Earlier in his career, he made fleeting appearances at shortstop and third base as well. Last season, he split his time between the keystone and left field.

Frazier – who turns 29 years old in four days – has never been accused of carrying a thunderous bat, but he’s been a largely-productive regular throughout his career, posting 2.4 bWAR per 650 plate appearances across five seasons. His .230/.297/.364 line was down across the board, though apologists could point to a strikeout rate of 15.2% that still saw him put the ball in play at a well-above-average rate, and a 7.4 BB% was well within his career norms. Looking a little deeper at Statcast measures like exit velocity and hard hit percentage, Frazier’s numbers dipped in 2020, but not so much to assume he couldn’t have rebounded over a full campaign.

Yankees, Pirates Have Discussed Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell

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The Yankees and Pirates have engaged in conversations centering on Pittsburgh right-hander Jameson Taillon and first baseman Josh Bell, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. It’s unclear how serious the two sides are about making a deal, according to Mackey.

This would be a significant deal for both teams, as Taillon and Bell are among the most recognizable players on the Pirates’ roster. However, with the Pirates unlikely to contend in the immediate future, it could behoove the team to at least listen to offers for Taillon and Bell. Taillon has two years of arbitration control left, and he’s projected to earn a very affordable $2.3MM in 2021. Bell is also down to his second-last year of arb control, though he’s slated to rake in a more expensive salary ranging from $5.1MM to $7.2MM.

The 29-year-old Taillon has been a successful starter in Pittsburgh, where he has recorded a 3.67 ERA/3.55 FIP with 8.09 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 across 466 innings, but injuries all but wiped out his previous two seasons. After throwing 37 frames in 2019, Taillon underwent Tommy John surgery that August. At last check (this past September), Taillon was coming along well in his rehab, so it seems he’ll make his return to a major league mound soon. A healthy Taillon would give the Yankees another proven starter alongside Gerrit Cole, his ex-Pirates teammate, as well as Luis Severino (who’s on the mend from his own TJ surgery).

It’s less clear where Bell would fit in New York, as the Yankees already have reigning MLB home run champion Luke Voit at first base. They also have Mike Ford in the mix as a lefty-hitting complement to the right-handed Voit, not to mention Giancarlo Stanton as their designated hitter. Bell, 28, was an All-Star for the Pirates two years ago, but his production plummeted during the shortened 2020 campaign.

Quick Hits: Sugano, Arihara, Padres, Varitek, Pirates

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Right-handers Tomoyuki Sugano and Kohei Arihara “are on the Padres’ radar,” The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required).  The two Nippon Professional Baseball veterans will both be available on the posting market, and represent intriguing alternatives to more established Major Leaguer hurlers in free agency.  As Lin notes, the Padres have worked to establish a scouting pipeline to the Asian leagues, with Pierce Johnson and Kazuhisa Makita representing San Diego’s most prominent NPB signings in recent years.

Sugano and Arihara are quite likely to each land multi-year deals but perhaps not overly long commitments, which could appeal to a Padres team Lin says is “mulling one-year deals as a way to reinforce a rotation.”  The Padres will be without Mike Clevinger in 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, leaving a vacancy in the starting mix.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Jason Varitek officially joined the Red Sox coaching staff earlier this month, working in the new position of game planning coordinator.  This is Varitek’s first assignment as a full-time MLB coach, and the longtime former catcher tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that eventually managing a team is “the ultimate goal” down the road in his post-playing career.  Varitek has worked as a special assistant within the Boston front office since 2012, a post that has allowed him to dabble in several different organizational facets such as scouting, player development, and (most recently) working with Red Sox catchers throughout the 2020 season.  “There are no set parameters” to the game planning coordinator job, Varitek said: “I’ll work with the catchers and pitchers and be a liaison with the analytics people.  Whatever comes my way, I’ll help out.  It ends up being the same thing I have been doing, helping the players grow.”
  • The Pirates are known to be considering all options on the trade front this winter, though The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) doesn’t think Josh Bell or Gregory Polanco will be dealt since the Bucs would likely be selling low on either player.  “It’s more likely than not” that Joe Musgrove will be traded, though Biertempfel also thinks it’s possible Musgrove could be signed to a contract extension, with Pittsburgh either seeing him as a long-term piece or perhaps using the extension as a way of enhancing Musgrove’s trade value.
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