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Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

White Sox Sign Kendall Graveman

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The White Sox continued their aggressive approach to building a late-game relief corps, formally announcing on Tuesday the signing of righty Kendall Graveman to a three-year contract. The Sports One client will be guaranteed $24MM, the team announced.

Graveman spent the first few seasons of his career as a competent but unexciting back-of-the-rotation starter. A quality strike-thrower who induced plenty of ground-balls, Graveman ate a fair amount of innings during his 2015-18 run with the A’s. But he consistently ran one of the game’s lower strikeout rates, capping his overall upside.

That began to change in September 2020, when the Mariners bumped Graveman into short relief stints. The Alabama native took to his new role with aplomb, adding almost three miles per hour to his average fastball and performing quite well down the stretch. That was only a month’s worth of action, but it was enough to convince the M’s to bring Graveman back and install him in a full-time relief role in 2021.

Graveman was excellent this past season, kicking off the year with fourteen consecutive scoreless outings. He sustained his uptick in fastball velocity, averaging a career-best 96.2 MPH on the pitch. With that improved raw stuff came better results, as Graveman generated swinging strikes on a decent 10.7% of his offerings — his first season north of 8% in that regard. He struck out an above-average 27.5% of batters faced, all while maintaining his standout ability to keep the ball on the ground.

Dating back to his bullpen conversion, Graveman has tossed 66 innings of 2.05 ERA/3.17 FIP ball between Seattle and the Astros. He owns solid strikeout and walk rates (25.5% and 8.9%, respectively) in addition to a huge 54.9% grounder percentage. Opposing hitters have managed just a .181/.278/.256 line against him in that time, and Graveman has shown himself capable of thriving in both a traditional closer’s role and as a high-leverage middle innings type.

That level of dominance led MLBTR to project a three-year deal for Graveman entering the winter. The 30-year-old (31 next month) looks as if he’ll come in just a touch shy of MLBTR’s three-year, $27MM projection, but his deal falls right in line with the general area for high-quality setup types of recent offseasons. Will Harris ($24MM in 2019-20), Adam Ottavino ($27MM in 2018-19) and Joe Kelly ($25MM in 2018-19) have all landed three-year free agent deals right around this territory in recent offseasons.

The White Sox have invested heavily in their bullpen over the past twelve months, and today’s strike to land one of this winter’s top free agent relievers is the latest example in that trend. Chicago signed star closer Liam Hendriks to a four-year, $54MM deal last offseason, then traded for eight-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel at this summer’s deadline. Kimbrel struggled down the stretch after an otherworldly showing with the Cubs during the first half of the season. He remains with the White Sox after the club exercised a $16MM option on his services, but GM Rick Hahn has already acknowledged the possibility the Sox try to move Kimbrel this offseason.

Signing Graveman doesn’t necessitate a Kimbrel trade. There are plenty of high-leverage innings to go around, and one of Chicago’s best 2021 late-game options — Michael Kopech — is expected to compete for a rotation role in 2022. The Sox could still elect to roll into 2022 with a three-headed monster for manager Tony La Russa to deploy at the end of games. That said, the Graveman pick-up could give the front office enough confidence in the relief corps that they’re comfortable moving Kimbrel to address other areas of the roster, with second base and a corner outfield spot standing out as potential areas of need.

It’s also worth noting that Graveman’s deal could push the franchise into a level of spending with which they may not be comfortable. Chicago has never had a season-opening player payroll north of $130MM in franchise history, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates they’ve already got around $168MM in 2022 commitments, though, even before accounting for Graveman’s forthcoming deal.

So while the Graveman addition need not force a Kimbrel trade from a roster perspective, adding that money to the White Sox’s already atypically packed ledger might foretell a money-saving deal of some kind. Moving Kimbrel’s $16MM salary elsewhere would seemingly be the most straightforward way to bring spending closer to the franchise’s previous levels, if owner Jerry Reinsdorf is intent on doing so.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Mariners, Astros Swap Kendall Graveman For Abraham Toro In Four-Player Trade

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In a rare and rather stunning swap between a pair of division rivals who are both in contention, the Mariners have traded closer Kendall Graveman and recently designated-for-assignment righty Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for young infielder Abraham Toro and veteran righty Joe Smith, according to both clubs. The trade is even more eye-opening when considering that the two clubs are gearing up to play each other in the second game of a three-game set tonight.

Trading Graveman at all registers as a moderate surprise, given the Mariners’ recent climb in the standings and stated desire to improve the 2021 roster. To see him traded to the division-leading Astros while the two squads are playing one another is downright jarring. That said, Graveman is a free agent at season’s end, and in Toro, the Mariners are acquiring five seasons of control over an infielder who has been considered one of Houston’s more promising young prospects for the past few years.

In speaking to the media about the trade, Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto plainly acknowledged that as a standalone transaction, it’s a head-scratching move. But Dipoto also emphasized some patience, suggesting this move is but one of a sequence of trades designed to improve the Mariners’ chances both in 2021 and over the long-term down the road (Twitter thread via MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer). Dipoto suggested a subsequent trade or trades could come together as soon as tonight or in the coming days, but it seems as though this is but one of a series of moves for which the Mariners are angling; time will tell just how the moves look when judged in their totality.

Toro, 24, hasn’t yet pieced things together in limited big league action, but he’s decimated Triple-A pitching (.392/.497/.600 in 33 games) and posted strong numbers in pitcher-friendly Double-A settings (.282/.369/.468 in 148 games). The switch-hitting Toro provides the Mariners with a possible long-term option at third base, but he’s also logged considerable time at second base — another area where the Mariners have been known to be seeking help. That long-term fit isn’t likely to matter much to the clubhouse, however, and Divish rather unsurprisingly tweets that the decision to trade Graveman to their top division rival was not well-received among Seattle players.

That’s understandable on Seattle’s end, given just how dominant Graveman has become since transitioning to the bullpen late in the 2020 season. The former Athletics starter has bounced back from an injury-lost 2019 season to emerge as one of the American League’s more effective relievers. In 33 innings this season, Graveman has pitched to a 0.82 ERA with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate, a 6.6 walk rate and a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate. Dating back to his shift to the bullpen in 2020, he’s compiled 43 innings of 1.47 ERA ball.

Graveman is likely all the more appealing to the luxury-conscious Astros because of his affordable salary. He’s playing on a one-year, $1.25MM contract. Incentives have already boosted that base salary by $400K, and the contract overall contains a total of $3MM in reachable incentives. That said, $1.5MM of those are tied up in games finished, and manager Dusty Baker has already indicated that Ryan Pressly is likely to continue as his closer. Graveman could still collect six more stray games finished to reach his first of three would-be $500K bonuses tied to games finished, but it’s unlikely he reaches the 30 and 40 games finished needed to unlock the next pair of $500K bonuses. In all, the contract will likely top out paying him somewhere in the range of $2.65MM based on incentives tied to days on the roster, games finished and total innings pitched.

Montero’s inclusion in the trade is likely a pure accounting measure. The combined salaries of Montero and Graveman ought to clock in somewhere in the same ballpark as Smith’s $4MM salary and luxury-tax hit, though depending on the status of Graveman’s incentives, the Astros could come out either a bit ahead or a bit behind where they were previously projected.

Montero opened the season as the closer in Seattle but struggled early and has been mired in a catastrophic slump of late, yielding 16 runs in his past 11 innings. The ’Stros may have their own ideas on how to help a reliever who was quite good with the Rangers in 2019-20 right the ship, but Montero’s inclusion doesn’t appear to be a key part of the swap. At best he’s a roll of the dice, and at worst he’s a financial counterweight who could be cut loose quickly if his struggles persist.

The same is largely true of Smith, who opted out of the 2020 season after signing a two-year deal in Houston and has been clobbered for a 7.48 ERA in 21 2/3 innings this year. Some of that has been attributable to a sky-high .413 batting average on balls in play, but Smith is sporting a career-low strikeout rate, a grounder rate that’s well off his peak levels and has also been quite homer-prone. As with Houston and Montero, perhaps the Mariners have an idea or two about how to get the veteran righty back on track, but the trade is much more about Graveman and Toro than about the struggling relievers accompanying those two players.

Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first tweeted that Toro and a reliever were going to the Mariners in exchange for two players. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart provided the full context on the trade.

Mariners Targeting Starting Pitching, Infield Help

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The Mariners are seeking starting pitching and infield upgrades in advance of the July 30 trade deadline, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray suggests the club sees second base as its biggest area to address, with a right-handed hitter being preferable.

Seattle has somewhat surprisingly hung around the playoff picture all year, entering play tonight 3.5 games behind the Athletics for the final Wild Card spot. Despite having been outscored by 51 runs, the Mariners are six games over .500 at 50-44. They’ll have an opportunity to make up ground when they welcome the A’s for a four-game set this weekend.

The Mariners weren’t generally expected to contend entering the season. While the club has seen plenty of progress as they reach the final stages of their rebuild, much of the roster is still young and unestablished. Despite their place in the standings, they remain a long shot to get to the postseason this year. FanGraphs pegs Seattle’s playoff odds at just 4%.

Thus, it’s not particularly surprising to hear the Mariners front office has indicated to rival teams they’re uninterested in parting with any of their top prospects, according to Murray. Rather than pursuing the top pitching targets on the market, Seattle’s expected to look for stopgap options to aid an injury-plagued rotation. Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield remain on the injured list, and the team’s reunion with James Paxton didn’t even last two innings before the lefty required Tommy John surgery. That has left the M’s to rely on Yusei Kikuchi, Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen.

Turning to the infield, each of first and second base have been problem areas for the M’s this year. Seattle’s presumably still committed to Evan White long-term, but the young first baseman won’t play again in 2021 due to a hip injury. At second base, the Mariners have gotten a disappointing campaign from Dylan Moore, who’s hitting just .190/.276/.356 across 243 plate appearances.

It shouldn’t be hard to find an upgrade over that production even if the Mariners are disinclined to part with top players. Speculatively speaking, Jonathan Schoop is having a strong season with Detroit and fits Seattle’s reported target for a righty-hitting second baseman; the switch-hitting César Hernández could be made available by the Indians, as could Josh Harrison of the Nationals.

Of course, there’s still some possibility the Mariners fall out of that solid position in the standings over the coming week. Losing this weekend’s series with Oakland, for instance, might change the calculus. Both Murray and Jeff Passan of ESPN write that the Mariners could yet straddle the line between buying and selling, looking to bolster the roster for this season and beyond while continuing to listen to offers on players like outfielder Mitch Haniger and reliever Kendall Graveman. The M’s don’t seem especially likely to trade Haniger, who’s controllable through next season, but an impending free agent like Graveman seems a more plausible candidate for a midseason move.

Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Plans

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The Mariners have been one of the most surprising contenders of the 2021 season to date. Manager Scott Servais entered the season with a six-man rotation and a host of exciting young outfielders getting ready to traverse the grass at T-Mobile Park, but expectations were low for a franchise with zero World Series appearances and no playoff appearances since 2001.

Both droughts are likely to continue into 2022, but there’s at least a chance that the Mariners could continue their upward trajectory and push for a playoff spot this season. With the trade deadline two weeks away, the Mariners are 49-43, on pace for 86 wins and just 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. In fact, they have the best record in the American League for a team not currently in a playoff spot, putting them in prime position to be surprise buyers at the deadline.

GM Jerry Dipoto has his ear to the ground, as ever, though it sounds like he’s still vacillating between the buyers and sellers line. Per The Athletic’s Corey Brock, Dipoto offered this recent assessment: “Our bullpen has been awesome, and it was roughly a number of guys who no one has ever heard of that just needed another chance. That’s put us in a really good position right now to be able to make a more aggressive play in the next two, three weeks if the opportunity presents itself. But we’re not going to push the opportunity because we believe this is a window that is open and we want to make sure it stays open. We don’t want to shortchange our long term.”

Their greatest need, should they want to wrench that window open right now, would be to add another starter to an injury-depleted rotation. Logan Gilbert has emerged as an exciting young arm, and Marco Gonzales is healthy again alongside Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen, but they also have nearly a full rotation on the injured list.

As Dipoto noted above, the bullpen has helped shoulder the load thanks to surprisingly competent seasons from Kendall Graveman, JT Chargois, Paul Sewald, and Drew Steckenrider, a foursome that’s accrued 3.3 fWAR of their league-leading 4.5 bullpen fWAR. The Mariners have made a practice of trading away relievers over the years, but this time around they might choose to hold onto a few of them, especially if they can’t find the rotation help they need.

That said, it’s just as likely that Trader Jerry stays true to his history and deals an arm or two to a contender. Brock suggests that Graveman is the most likely Mariner to find himself in a new uniform by August, which certainly makes some sense given his breakout season. Graveman is a free agent at the end of the year, and right now he’s presenting as a difference-maker, a transition from starter to high-leverage arm that began last season. He has locked down eight saves as the Mariners’ closer, pitching to a sterling 0.93 ERA/3.03 FIP across 29 innings.

Even if the Mariners do decide to sell a piece or two, don’t expect Mitch Haniger to be an easy get. Brock notes that Haniger “isn’t likely to be moved unless the Mariners are floored by a deal.”

On the one hand, that might be surprising given the plethora of promising young outfielders in the organization, well-known prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Jake Fraley, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. For now, however, Lewis is hurt, Rodriguez has just 14 games of experience in Double-A, and Kelenic and Trammell have stumbled at the big league level with marks of 12 wRC+ and 74 wRC+, respectively.

In the plus column, Fraley has absolutely raked to a 143 wRC+ by way of a .237/.409/.439 triple slash — buoyed by an above-average .202 ISO and eye-opening 22.1 percent walk rate that would be first overall in the game among qualified hitters if he had more plate appearances. Fraley doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of those other names, however, and it’ll take more than 149 plate appearances to anoint him as an above-average regular.

Which is the point, really, both behind Haniger’s value on the trade market and the Mariners’ desire to keep him. Injuries have slowed his ascension to stardom, but since his arrival in Seattle, he’s been a 127 wRC+ hitter with 78 home runs and a .269/.343/.489 triple slash line across 1,751 plate appearances. He’s 30 years old, and with one more season of team control remaining, it’s easy to understand why contenders might ask about his availability.

Despite Haniger’s importance to this lineup, however, and despite the Mariners having a chance to make a run at the playoffs, Trader Jerry likes to deal. Speculatively speaking, Dipoto likely would prefer to get the godfather offer for Haniger that forces his hand, and maybe that makes him more inclined to see that offer where it doesn’t exist. But by all accounts, Dipoto is content to hold him through the deadline.

He could, after all, explore a trade in the offseason. Besides, with Lewis hurt and Rodriguez not yet ready, there’s no real rush to vacate Haniger’s plate appearances. There’s enough run to go around if Servais wants to see Haniger, Fraley, Trammell, and Kelenic all in the lineup at the same time, though that hasn’t been the case thus far.

Still, expect Dipoto to do something. At the very least, he sounds likely to acquire some kind of starting pitcher, with the real question being the quality of arm he’s able/willing to procure.

Mariners Activate Kendall Graveman, Justin Dunn From Injured List

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The Mariners announced the activation of Kendall Graveman and Justin Dunn from the injured list. In corresponding moves, Keynan Middleton was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma, while Yacksel Ríos was designated for assignment.

Graveman went on the COVID-19 IL on May 23. That halted what has been a brilliant 2021 season for the right-hander. Graveman has pitched 16 2/3 scoreless innings out of the Seattle bullpen over his first 14 appearances. He’s averaging a career-high 96.9 MPH on his sinker, backed up by a slider that has been one of the game’s best swing-and-miss offerings. Graveman has punched out a very strong 29.3% of opponents against a tiny 5.2% walk rate.

It’s a big season for Graveman, who is slated to hit free agency this winter for the first time. If he can continue to perform at something approaching this level down the stretch, he’ll position himself as one of the top relievers on the market. That impending free agency also makes him one of the sport’s more interesting trade candidates in advance of this summer’s July 30 deadline. At 31-33, the Mariners have fallen into fourth place in the AL West, five games back in the race for the second wild card. There’s still time to make up ground, but the Mariners have the AL’s second-worst run differential (-58), so they’ll need to play at a significantly better level if they’re to hang around the postseason picture.

Dunn went on the 10-day IL on June 1 with right shoulder inflammation. The injury was never expected to be particularly serious, and he’ll indeed return after a minimal IL stint. Dunn, who has a 3.18 ERA/5.08 SIERA across 45 1/3 frames this season, will start tonight’s game against the Indians.

Seattle just acquired Ríos in a minor deal with the Rays last week. The 27-year-old had pitched to a 0.66 ERA with a fantastic 34.7% strikeout rate with Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate, piquing the interest of the Mariners front office. He’s given up three runs in as many innings since the trade, with a pair of strikeouts and walks apiece. The Mariners will have a week to trade Ríos or place him on outright waivers. Having previously been outrighted in his career, Ríos would have the right to elect free agency if he passes through the wire unclaimed.

Mariners Place Kendall Graveman On 10-Day Injured List, Recall Wyatt Milles

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The Mariners announced a pair of corresponding roster moves today. Closer Kendall Graveman heads to the 10-day injured list while Wyatt Mills joins the active roster from Triple-A.

Graveman has been borderline magical for the Mariners thus far with 16 2/3 scoreless innings across 14 appearances. The 30-year-old former starter has been one of the better stories of the young season, if a tad under-the-radar. He has stepped into the closer role after a strong showing in high-leverage opportunities last season put him in competition for the role. He has five saves thus far, tied for the team lead with Rafael Montero. No specific injury has been listed for Graveman.

The 26-year-old Mills has made six appearances for the Mariners this season, the first of his big-league career. Mills has allowed eight earned runs on nine hits and four walks while striking out five. Despite his early struggles, the former Gonzaga stand-out profiles as a potential high-leverage arm out the bullpen.

AL Notes: Mariners, Graveman, Rotation, Rays, Arozarena

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Kendall Graveman signed back with the Mariners with the expectation of sticking in the bullpen, he said on the Extra Innings Podcast. Graveman pitched out the bullpen consistently for the first time in his career last season for the Mariners, emerging as an option for high-leverage opportunities. The former Oakland Athletic spent 2018 with the Cubs while recovering from Tommy John. He signed with the Mariners and made a couple of starts in 2020, but the bulk of his outings came out of the bullpen. Heading into 2021, he’s fully committed to a bullpen role. He’ll the 30-years-old in December, and though he’s new to the bullpen, Graveman spoke confidently about his ability to adjust and let his stuff play up during shorter outings. The right-hander also spoke about shortening his arsenal. He plans on focusing on what works best and sticking with a couple of his strongest pitches, probably a heater, change, and curve primarily, though he also spoke about working in a two-seamer on occasion as a way to vary the look from the fastball.

  • Even with Graveman firmly in the bullpen, the Mariners plan on use of a six-man rotation in 2021 to help keep starters healthy, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With that in mind, they’re likely to at least explore the starting pitching market in free agency. Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn figure to return to the rotation in 2021, while Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome are the other holdovers. Logan Gilbert could also emerge as a potential option at some point in 2021, if not by Opening Day. Gilbert will turn 24 early in 2021. He finished 2019 with 9 starts in Double-A with a 2.88 ERA.
  • Randy Arozarena’s playoff performance was a dramatic enough affair to spark a feature film. Wonderfilm Media has begun working on an Arozarena biopic with plans for release in 2022 or 2023, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The film, of course, won’t solely portray the postseason. Rather, the film will focus on Arozarena’s journey to MLB from Cuba. Wonderfilm co-founder Bret Saxon said (per Topkin), “We feel like the heart of this movie is his journey, and the people around him, how he was inspiring and helping the family back home. But, for sure, some of those big payoff moments are on the field, so there will be plenty of actual baseball in stadiums.”

 

Mariners Re-Sign Kendall Graveman

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11:42am: Graveman’s deal comes with a $1.25MM base salary and another $2.5MM worth of incentives, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). That will give him the opportunity to earn a bit more than the $3.5MM he’d have taken home had the Mariners picked up his option.

11:35am: That was quick. Just one day after declining their $3.5MM club option on Kendall Graveman, the Mariners announced that they’ve re-signed the right-hander to a new one-year, Major League contract for the 2021 season. It’s surely at a lesser rate than that $3.5MM price point, but the Sports One Management client looks as though he’ll be locked in as a member of the team’s bullpen again next season.

Graveman, 29, returned to the Majors in 2020 after missing most of 2018 and all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. The initial hope was that he’d be a member of the team’s six-man rotation, but Graveman spent much of the year on the injured list due to a neck injury and returned to the club in September as a reliever.

The results upon his return were encouraging, however, as Graveman averaged a career-best 96.4 mph on his sinker and held opponents to four runs on six hits and three walks with five strikeouts in 10 innings. Three of those runs came in one particularly rough outing, but Graveman allowed just one run in the rest of his bullpen outings combined. He also sported a hefty 55.4 percent ground-ball rate in that time, giving further cause for optimism about his potential as a reliever over the course of a full season.

For Seattle, re-signing Graveman is its first noteworthy order of business in what should be an active winter for its relief corps. After the Mariners’ bullpen finished 2020 last in the AL in ERA and fWAR, general manager Jerry Dipoto declared the M’s would try to add three to four relievers in the offseason.

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