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2017-18 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Though the rebuilding White Sox made bids for a few big name position players, they settled for a quiet offseason with a handful of veteran additions.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

Despite entertaining several bold offseason moves, the White Sox ultimately focused on veteran placeholders in what ended up being a quiet offseason.  This serves as no surprise, with the team entering the second year of a rebuilding process.  The team’s signature offseason move was an upgrade at catcher with the signing of Welington Castillo in December.

Welington Castillo | Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

After deploying an inexperienced duo of Kevan Smith and Omar Narvaez behind the dish last year, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Castillo was imported on a two-year free agent contract.  Castillo, who started his career in the Cubs organization, adds pop to the lineup and a veteran presence for a rotation with three members under the age of 25 (in addition to several young arms looming in the upper minors).

In January, the Sox re-signed veteran starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez, who made 45 starts for them from 2016-17 until being dealt to the Rangers at the end of August.  Gonzalez’s job, much like fellow rotation-mate James Shields, is to take the ball every fifth day until he’s nudged out by top pitching prospect Michael Kopech.

Improving the team’s bullpen was a stated desire for White Sox GM Rick Hahn, and he accomplished this mainly through one January trade.  Surrendering minor league utility type Jake Peter, who had gone unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft, Hahn acquired Joakim Soria from the Royals and Luis Avilan from the Dodgers.  Both veterans slot in toward the back of Chicago’s bullpen, along with holdover Nate Jones, who opened the season healthy after undergoing nerve surgery in his pitching elbow last summer.  Hector Santiago, added on a minor league deal, also cracked the Opening Day bullpen.  Given last summer’s trades of David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, and Dan Jennings, the White Sox had to add a few veterans to the decimated ’pen.

Hahn also tinkered around the edges, adding outfielder Daniel Palka, shortstop Jose Rondon, and pitchers Thyago Vieira, Ricardo Pinto, and Jose Ruiz through trades and waiver claims.  All but Ruiz remain on the 40-man roster.  Pitchers Vieira and Pinto were acquired for international bonus pool space, which was of lesser value to the White Sox since they are in the $300K bonus pool penalty box for signing Luis Robert a year ago.  Vieira is a live arm who has touched 102 miles per hour, and he’ll eventually be joined at Triple-A Charlotte by Pinto, who is being stretched out as a starter.  Both 24-year-olds made their MLB debuts last season, and it’s possible that either or both could be up in the Majors with the Sox in 2018.

Questions Remaining

One big offseason question was whether the White Sox would trade first baseman Jose Abreu and/or right fielder Avisail Garcia.  Hahn has been clear that the club is constantly making an assessment of whether to extend or eventually trade the pair, and nothing has been settled in that regard.  Both are under control through 2019, but the 26-year-old Garcia may make more sense as a part of the next contending White Sox team than the 31-year-old Abreu.

Jose Abreu & Avisail Garcia | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Rumors suggested the Athletics, Giants, and Blue Jays were among those to check in on Garcia, while the Red Sox and others may have had dialogue regarding Abreu.  Given the stagnant free agent market for many veterans, it’s no surprise Hahn found trade offers unsatisfactory.  Still, with both players remaining on the South Side and no contract extensions in place, rumors figure to abound once again this summer as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches.

Hahn decided to go big game fishing around the Winter Meetings, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic describing the White Sox as the “most aggressive suitor” for Orioles shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado.  Though Rosenthal said the White Sox and Orioles “discussed a package for Machado that would include either right-hander Lucas Giolito or right-hander Michael Kopech but not both,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today described the offer as “solid,” but without any top prospects.

With Machado headed to free agency after the 2018 season, it would seem that Chicago’s interest was in signing him to a massive contract extension before he could reach the open market.  That was an unlikely proposition, and Machado stayed put.  But it does suggest that a team that has never given out a contract bigger than Abreu’s $68MM has at least considered extending an offer perhaps four times that size to the young superstar.  With 2019 payroll commitments of just $10.9MM in guaranteed contract, the White Sox could be a major player in the 2018-19 free agent market.  Their previous interest in Machado, at least, seems likely to once again resurface.

More sensible than Machado was Hahn’s pursuit of outfielder Christian Yelich.  The 26-year-old is under contract potentially through 2022, so the bulk of his control would have fallen within the White Sox’ targeted window of contention.  It appears some kind of offer was made to the Marlins for Yelich, but Miami instead accepted a package from the Brewers headlined by Lewis Brinson.  The White Sox also reportedly made some late effort to be opportunistic on Logan Morrison’s stagnant market, but he wound up with the Twins.

Despite an Opening Day payroll that settled in as the team’s lowest since 2004, the White Sox did not use their financial flexibility to purchase prospects by taking on bad contracts.  That’s perhaps not in the style of owner Jerry Reinsdorf, but it’s conceivable the White Sox could have taken on dead money for players like Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Matt Kemp, Rusney Castillo, or Yasmany Tomas and further bolstered their farm system.

Overview

Though they carry just a 69-win projection from FanGraphs, the White Sox look to be baseball’s most interesting rebuilding team.  While preseason projections inevitably come with great variability and the White Sox are loaded with upside, the South Siders would probably have to beat their forecast by about 17 wins to sneak into the playoffs as the AL’s second Wild Card.  Even Hahn recently said, “I think even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us.”  I imagine Hahn and many White Sox fans are hoping the team can nonetheless arrive early, and start contending next year.

How would you grade the offseason for the ChiSox? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

  • None

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

After turning in a solid, Wild Card-winning campaign in 2017, but facing a difficult task ahead in a strong NL West division, the Rockies largely elected to utilize the open market to address their key needs. The result was a fairly straightforward path that resulted in several (relatively) early investments as much of the market stalled. With a focus on re-loading the relief corps — the one area of free agency that did follow a generally typical path in a strange winter — the Rox ended up as one of the more active spenders in the game.

Before getting underway with the relief unit, the Rockies addressed their need for a backstop. The club pursued Jonathan Lucroy, who had a solid late-2017 run in Colorado, but moved on when he did not bite at the team’s three-year offer. Instead, veteran Chris Iannetta secured a somewhat larger-than-anticipated promise, though the annual rate falls in line with what quality non-regular receivers have earned in recent years. Iannetta is coming off of a strong showing with the division-rival Diamondbacks, though at 35 years of age it’s reasonable to anticipate he won’t quite perform to the same level offensively (.254/.354/.511 with 17 home runs in 316 plate appearances). Iannetta won’t be pressed into everyday duties, anyway, with Tony Wolters expected to share time and the still-interesting Tom Murphy also still in the organization.

With that decision out of the way, the Rockies turned to addressing the openings created when a notable trio of relievers departed at the end of the 2017 season. Closer Greg Holland turned down both a player option and a qualifying offer, thus joining southpaw Jake McGee and mid-season trade acquisition Pat Neshek on the open market.

The Rox ended up striking Winter Meetings deals with both McGee and sturdy late-inning hurler Bryan Shaw. Both took down rather hefty guarantees ($27MM apiece) on three-year terms. Those contracts beat expectations, but did not seem entirely out of place in a bullpen market that came out of the gates hot.

Colorado nearly came away from the Swan and Dolphin resort with three pen additions, as the team reportedly made progress on a deal to bring back Holland as the meetings drew to a close. Those talks fizzled out, however, leaving the Rockies to line up a deal — at a reputedly similar price to what had been dangled to Holland — with top free-agent closer Wade Davis. He’s earning at a record annual rate for a reliever, but it was nice to get him on a three-year term when it long seemed four were likely. Davis seems the better bet than Holland, so it all worked out for the Rox, though the club surely wouldn’t have minded lucking into Holland on a one-year deal instead, as the Cardinals did.

After plunking down $106MM in total commitments to those three relievers, the Rockies seemed likely to turn to another area of uncertainty: first base. The Ian Desmond experiment did not really work out last year, and he seemed better situated to taking residence in the corner outfield with Carlos Gonzalez hitting free agency. Mark Reynolds, who took the bulk of the action at first in 2017 and performed solidly, was also back on the open market and was one of several cheaply available possibilities. While quality prospect Ryan McMahon loomed, finding a complement to his lefty bat (if not a higher-end player) appeared to be the next item on the list.

While there was evidently some chatter with Reynolds, however, the team never ended up adding a right-handed-hitting first baseman. Instead, after a long transactional lull, GM Jeff Bridich lined up a fairly surprising reunion with Gonzalez, who faced a difficult market situation after a substandard 2017 season. His re-signing was welcomed by the clubhouse, but also creates some questions as the season gets underway.

Questions Remaining

The Rockies know Gonzalez better than anyone, and they obviously feel he has more in the tank at 32 years of age. He’ll earn less annually (up to $8MM) than any of the three just-signed relievers, but on only a one-year commitment, and the price doesn’t feel too steep for a player of his established ability level. It prices in CarGo’s ceiling as well as his injuries and poor 2017 production.

Still, it’s rather a curious fit, because the Rockies are loaded with lefty outfield bats. Star Charlie Blackmon is locked into center for the coming season, though he’ll test free agency at year end unless the sides come to a new deal during the coming campaign. Gerardo Parra was already slated for something like semi-regular duty after a nice bounceback season. Highly regarded youngsters Raimel Tapia and David Dahl are also options along with Mike Tauchman.

As it turns out, there are four southpaw swinging outfielders on the roster to open the year, with Desmond shifting back to first base. While the general talent level is fine, it’s an extremely awkward alignment. Blackmon is obviously going to play every day, but the corner rotation looks hapless against left-handed pitching. Gonzalez and Parra both have sizable platoon splits over their careers; Tauchman hit lefties well last year in a small sample (101 plate appearances) but has otherwise been far better with the platoon advantage in the upper minors.

To be sure, the Rox could end up acquiring or promoting another righty bat to take a fourth outfielder role. Noel Cuevas is perhaps the top internal option after Desmond. Even if that comes to pass, it doesn’t make further sense of the decision to splurge on Gonzalez. Barring injury, Tapia and Dahl are now largely buried at Triple-A for the season to come, despite the fact that both have already shown the ability to perform at the game’s highest level.

Meanwhile, the club has Desmond locked into most of the time at first. When he was first signed to play there, the decision was hard to comprehend. Desmond, after all, generally profiled as a solid-but-streaky hitter, great baserunner, and good defender with lots of versatility. Plugging such a player at first base never made loads of sense, but it seemed the Rockies might at least utilize him elsewhere in the future. Using Desmond as a much-needed right-handed-hitting outfielder while investing the $8MM CarGo cash elsewhere made quite a lot more sense on paper. Indeed, given the glut of sluggers, the Rockies easily could have found a player with superior offensive chops to Desmond while saving the bulk of the money for any mid-season needs that might arise. The resulting roster would have been more cost-efficient and much better positioned to take advantage of platoon advantages. Unless the Rockies are all but certain — despite the evidence to the contrary — that Gonzalez is primed to return to being a premium bat, the decision to utilize those funds on the former star is about as perplexing as the move for Desmond was last winter.

Of course, the Colorado organization was able to reach the postseason despite the rough showing from Desmond last year. And perhaps there’s still reason to hope he can be a part of an otherwise quality infield unit. Nolan Arenado remains one of the game’s best all-around players, while DJ LeMahieu is a good option at second entering his final season of team control. There’s a bit more uncertainty in the rest of the unit. At short, Trevor Story seems a likely bet to provide quality glovework — UZR has rated him as average, DRS as excellent — though his offensive output remains in question. Story burst on the scene with 27 home runs in just 415 plate appearances in 2016, but he dropped back to 24 dingers in 555 trips to the dish last season — and also went down on strikes 34.4% of the time while sporting an ugly .308 on-base percentage. Iannetta and Wolters aren’t a terribly exciting pairing behind the dish, but Murphy perhaps still offers a bit of upside if Wolters again lags at the plate.

The new Rockies relief unit looks to be quite a good one. While there’s ample risk in the lengthy, high-dollar contracts that were required to land the team’s late-inning trio, all the pitchers acquired seem likely to be productive, at least in the near term. Adam Ottavino and Mike Dunn have plenty of late-inning experience of their own; while each struggled to limit their free passes last year, their power arsenals are still impressive. Lefty Chris Rusin has been a highly useful multi-inning piece, adding a different dimension to the group. And there’s some young fire from the likes of Antonio Senzatela (a multi-inning threat after spending most of 2017 as a starter), Carlos Estevez (who’ll open on the DL but has big-time raw stuff), and Jairo Diaz (who’s still trying to iron things out in the minors). There isn’t much established depth beyond that group, as non-roster invitee Brooks Pounders is the only other reliever in the organization with MLB experience.

And that brings us to a rotation that did not require offseason tweaking, but isn’t loaded with certainties either. Whether Jon Gray will continue to improve remains to be seen, but he’s a quality front-of-the-rotation starter as-is. German Marquez emerged with a very strong 2017 effort at just 22 years of age, when Kyle Freeland showed an ability to get grounders and good results in the majors, though neither has a long track record at the game’s highest level. It has been a bit of a rollercoaster for Tyler Anderson, whose first start of the new season was a mess, but he could be productive if he can tamp down on the long balls. Righty Chad Bettis will look to get fully back up to speed after making his return from testicular cancer in 2017.

It’s tough to see that five-man unit ending up as one of the best in the National League, but it could well be good enough to support another postseason run. Senzatela will be available if a need arises, though he may need some time to ramp up to a starter’s workload if he’s called upon in the middle of the year. It’s not exactly promising to see Jeff Hoffman sidelined by shoulder issues, though he could still be a factor. Otherwise, there are four starters on the 40-man roster — Yency Almonte, Zach Jemiola, Sam Howard, and Jesus Tinoco — that all lack MLB experience but could be given a first shot. The Rockies haven’t shied away from relying on young arms in recent years, after all, and any of that group could show up in the rotation or pen.

Overview

The Rockies have really extended their payroll in recent seasons. They first pushed past $100MM by the end of the 2015 campaign, reached $156MM by the close of 2017, and now open 2018 with a club-record of just under $137MM on the books. That has helped the club add in some rather expensive complimentary pieces around a core of excellent position players and a cost-effective set of starters. And the results were on display with the nice run last year.

Trouble is, the Rockies are facing stringent competition both in the NL West and in the Wild Card hunt in a top-heavy National League. And the payroll dynamic will soon get tricky as their starters hit arbitration, Arenado reaches his final arb year (at what will surely be a huge rate), and Blackmon and LeMahieu prepare to hit the open market. There’s plenty of good young talent still moving toward the majors — to Colorado’s credit, they’ve avoided parting with it via trade — though it may not quite fully arrive by the time these changes occur.

If things don’t break right in 2018, and the next round of premium talent isn’t quite ready, it could be a bit of an awkward winter. Arenado’s situation will no doubt hang over the organization regardless. But that’ll all go much smoother if the Rockies play to the level they hope. While there’s little question the roster, as assembled, can compete, some of the decisions may not have optimally allocated resources. In particular, the thinking on Desmond and Gonzalez is still a bit difficult to comprehend fully — though the Rockies seem to believe they’re best off betting on talent and character. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how it all turns out over the course of the 2018 campaign.

How would you grade the Rockies’ winter efforts? (Link for app users.)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Orioles saved their biggest spending for a much-needed rotation fix, while relying on some familiar faces and young arms to augment the back end of the roster at a low cost.

Major League Signings

  • Alex Cobb, SP: Four years, $57MM ($20MM deferred without interest)
  • Andrew Cashner, SP: Two years, $16MM (plus $10MM club option for 2020 that can either vest or become a player option with at least 340 IP over 2018-19)
  • Chris Tillman, SP: One year, $3MM
  • Michael Kelly, RHP: Major League contract, minimum salary (Kelly has since been designated for assignment)
  • Total spend: $76.545MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Orioles 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, then Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette could take Major League Baseball’s offseason as a compliment.  Since taking over Baltimore’s front office, Duquette’s signature move has been to wait until late in the offseason to pursue free agents whose markets had stalled or even collapsed, in order to sign the players at a discounted price.

This winter, however, seemingly every team in baseball adopted Duquette’s strategy, leading to an unprecedented chill in free agent activity and leaving O’s fans increasingly agitated about their team’s lack of action.  While the Orioles were filling some holes via minor league contracts, the club’s most glaring need was being left unfilled — three spots in the team’s starting rotation.

The first domino fell in mid-February, when Andrew Cashner was signed to a two-year, $16MM deal.  Next came a one-year, $3MM reunion with Chris Tillman, the longtime O’s workhorse and former ace whose value cratered after a nightmarish 2017 season.  While these two signings addressed the back of the rotation, however, Baltimore still seemed in clear need of a more prominent arm to join with Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman as the team’s frontline starters.

Alex Cobb | Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY SportsThe O’s weren’t in particularly strong pursuit of Alex Cobb as recently as early February, though the urgency to address that pitching need continued to build, especially once Lance Lynn joined the Twins on a one-year deal even though the Orioles may have been willing to offer multiple seasons.  The time had come for the Orioles to take a plunge to solidify their pitching staff, and the result was bringing Cobb into the fold on the largest pitching contract in franchise history.

Cobb has yet to entirely recapture the form he showed prior to his May 2015 Tommy John surgery, returning from rehab to make five ugly starts in 2016 and then posting a solid-but-unspectacular 3.66 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 2.91 K/BB rate over 179 1/3 innings for the Rays last season.  Cobb did gradually pitch better as the season developed, however, and answered some of the questions about his durability by setting a new personal best for innings.  It should be noted that even if Cobb’s 2017 numbers end up representing his new normal, his performance last year still represents an enormous upgrade for the Baltimore rotation.  Cobb posted 2.4 fWAR and rWAR last season, putting him almost on par with Bundy (2.7) and Gausman (2.5 fWAR, 2.0 rWAR), and far surpasses the numbers posted by Jimenez, Tillman, Wade Miley, or Jeremy Hellickson.

The signing was an aggressive and somewhat unexpected move from Baltimore, especially given their previous record-high pitching contract (Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM deal) only just came off the books and was a significant bust for the team.  Still, it was clearly a risk the Orioles felt comfortable in taking, as since 2018 could be something of a win-now season with so many star players hitting free agency next winter, the four-year length of Cobb’s contract indicates that the O’s still intend to be competitive over the long term.

The shorter-term fixes came in the form of some former Orioles brought back on minor league contracts.  Pedro Alvarez, Craig Gentry, and Danny Valencia all returned for another stint in Baltimore, while Colby Rasmus (rumored as an O’s target for a couple of years now) joined both the team and baseball itself, after he put his career on hiatus last summer to spend time with his family and newborn child.

Mark Trumbo’s season-opening DL stint and the Orioles’ desire for Austin Hays to get everyday minor league work resulted in Alvarez, Gentry, Valencia, and Rasmus all having their contracts purchased for Opening Day.  Rasmus and Gentry look to form a lefty/righty platoon in right field, with Alvarez and Valencia doing the same at DH, with Valencia also available to back up first and possibly third base.

Questions Remaining

Cobb’s injury history is surely a concern to the O’s, though barring any further health issues, he should clearly help the rotation.  It’s anyone’s guess as to how Tillman can (or will) rebound, though at a cost of just $3MM and with shoulder problems potentially the culprit behind his 2017 struggles, he represents at worst a low-risk option for the fifth starter role.  If Tillman’s shoulder is feeling better, he stands out as a major bargain for the Orioles at anything resembling his old form. (Tillman can earn up to $7MM more via incentives, though if he reaches a significant portion of that number, it’ll likely be because he’s pitching well enough to make it money well spent for Baltimore.)

Cashner, however, is more of a concern, with a checkered injury history of his own as well as some fairly questionable numbers last season.  His 3.40 ERA over 166 2/3 innings for the Rangers looked great on paper, though advanced metrics (4.61 FIP, 5.30 xFIP, 5.52 SIERA) painted a much more dire picture of Cashner’s performance.  Never much of a strikeout pitcher, Cashner posted only a 4.64 K/9 last year, the second-lowest total of any qualified starter in the game.  Combine that stat with the lowest swinging-strike rate (6.1%) of any qualified starter, and Cashner’s .266 BABIP and 74% strand rate suddenly look like much larger factors in his 2017 success.

Andrew Cashner

There’s also the fact that Cortes and Castro could be needed in the bullpen, which took a big hit when closer Zach Britton suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon over the offseason.  Britton is said to be making good progress and could perhaps even be a bit ahead of schedule if he returns by early June or even late May, but obviously it’s a major setback for a pitcher who was already looking to bounce back from an injury-hampered 2017 season.

Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Mychal Givens will share the late-game duties with Britton out, and the Orioles’ top plan for bullpen reinforcement seems to be Cortes and Pedro Araujo, both selected in the Rule 5 Draft and required to be on Baltimore’s 25-man roster all season if the team wants to keep them in the organization.  Cortes and Araujo both have live arms and either one would be an intriguing addition to the bullpen — going with both for a full season is somewhat risky, due to the sheer lack of experience.

The O’s didn’t have many holes around the diamond, and they gained a bit more left-handed hitting depth in the form of Rasmus, Alvarez, and top prospect Chance Sisco. None are everyday options, though Sisco likely will be at some point.  Deploying the veterans in pure platoon roles makes sense on paper, though there is a lack of infield depth on the bench, as Valencia isn’t an ideal defensive choice at anything besides first base at this point in his career.  Luis Sardinas and Engelb Vielma are on hand as defense-only infield options in the minors and could eventually get the call once Trumbo returns and the O’s have to engage in some roster shuffling.

The infield question stands out since it isn’t clear if Tim Beckham is a reliable everyday option, though the Orioles are now wondering if Beckham can be a starting third baseman as opposed to a starting shortstop.  In a much-publicized position switch, Manny Machado is returning to shortstop after spending the bulk of his MLB career as one of baseball’s best defensive third basemen.  It’s a move that carries some risk for Baltimore (in an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” sense), though Machado’s defense doesn’t appear to have been much affected, and if there is any worry about the position change impacting Machado’s bat, it could be noted that Machado really has nowhere to go but up after a disappointing year at the plate.

Machado hit .259/.310/.471 over 690 PA in 2017, still displaying big power with 33 homers but falling behind in the average and OBP departments — the latter being particularly harmful on a team that struggled as a whole to reach base.  With Adam Jones also going through a bit of an off-year by his standards and Davis and Trumbo just having flat-out mediocre seasons, the Orioles’ biggest need may simply be for these lineup cornerstones to get back on track.

There is even more pressure on Machado and Jones for turnaround years since both players will be free agents next offseason.  A big contract year could be particularly important for Jones, who turns 33 in June and is entering a free agent market that has become increasingly unfavorable to veteran position players with marginal OBPs over the past two winters.  Machado is going to score a huge deal even if he repeats his 2017 numbers, though if he proves that last year was just a fluke, he’ll again be on track for a massive contract that could crack the $300MM barrier.

Whether that next contract could come from the Orioles is beginning to seem increasingly unlikely, as the team and its star shortstop seemed to barely touch base on extension negotiations this winter.  Of much more intrigue was the fact that the O’s actively explored trading Machado, opening the floor to offers from any team willing to meet a gigantic asking price.  Teams like the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and Cardinals were all involved in the talks but, ultimately, Machado was still wearing the orange-and-black on Opening Day.

It’s possible that Machado could again be shopped at the trade deadline if Baltimore falls out of the postseason race.  Owner Peter Angelos has traditionally been hesitant about unloading stars at midseason, though with his sons taking an increased role in the franchise’s operations — they reportedly pushed for the Cobb signing, for instance — perhaps Angelos could be convinced that dealing free agents like Machado, Jones, Britton, or Brach would be in the team’s best interest for a quick reload to contend in 2019.

Overview

Given how some of the veteran hitters struggled last year, it would be rather painfully ironic for the Orioles if they finally overhauled their rotation only to see their lineup fall apart.  The O’s took steps to address their pitching weaknesses, but they’re still putting a lot of faith that the core of their lineup can bring them back to their 2012-16 success.  The Orioles did shave around $18MM off the payroll from their season-ending $170MM figure, so there is room to spend at the deadline if they decide to be buyers rather than sellers, but it remains to be seen if Baltimore can hang around in the tough AL East long enough to make that decision.

What’s your take on the Orioles’ winter?  (Link to poll for app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Looking to break the Mariners’ 16-year playoff drought, trade-happy general manager Jerry Dipoto swung a couple of noteworthy deals in the offseason.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Mariners Depth Chart; Mariners Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

For the most part, the Mariners’ cast of position players was effective in 2017. Catcher Mike Zunino, second baseman Robinson Cano, shortstop Jean Segura, third baseman Kyle Seager, right fielder Mitch Haniger and designated hitter Nelson Cruz each turned in above-average seasons, and all six are reprising their roles this year (though Zunino’s currently on the DL, and Cruz has an ankle issue). There’s a new face at first base, on the other hand, after the Mariners received bottom-feeding production there a season ago. They were in especially poor shape at the position before the late-season addition of Yonder Alonso from the Athletics. Alonso was much steadier than Danny Valencia, but both players are now elsewhere after leaving in free agency.

Enter Ryon Healy, who – like Alonso – came over from Oakland. The Mariners moved to acquire Healy shortly after the offseason began in November, surrendering intriguing reliever Emilio Pagan in the deal. Whether it was the right call is up for debate, especially with so many other first basemen having ended up with reasonable contracts in free agency. And it doesn’t help that the Mariners’ bullpen took multiple hits toward the tail end of spring training, including standout reliever David Phelps’ season-ending UCL tear. The M’s Phelps-less relief corps could certainly use Pagan now after he worked to a 3.22 ERA/3.28 FIP in a 50 1/3-inning showing last year, his rookie season.

The 26-year-old Pagan is under control for the next half-decade, as is Healy. Also 26, Healy burst on the scene with the A’s two years ago in hitting .305/.337/.524 in 283 plate appearances. There were troubling signs along the way, though, in the form of a 4.2 percent walk rate and an unsustainable-looking .352 batting average on balls in play. Healy’s lack of patience continued last season, when he drew a free pass just 3.8 percent of the time, and his BABIP dropped to .319. Thanks in part to those factors, his production plummeted over the course of a full season (.271/.302/.451 in 605 PAs). Projection systems such as Steamer and ZiPS are forecasting even worse numbers this year for Healy.

If the righty-hitting Healy does indeed fail to live up to expectations this season, the Mariners could turn to lefty Dan Vogelbach, who was the favorite to emerge as their first baseman entering last year. But Vogelbach had a miserable spring, lost out to Valencia and ultimately totaled just 13 major league PAs. This spring was a different story for the 25-year-old, who led the league in OPS (an astounding 1.455) over a small sample of at-bats (54), leading to hope that he’s finally ready to deliver on the promise he had as a Cubs prospect.

A few weeks after the Mariners welcomed Healy, they sent three prospects to the Marlins for speedy second baseman Dee Gordon and took on his entire four-year, $38MM guarantee in the process. With the expensive, potentially Hall of Fame-caliber Cano occupying the keystone for the foreseeable future in Seattle, the Gordon trade was a head-scratching move upon first sight. However, it quickly became clear the Mariners were going to employ some out-of-the-box thinking and shift Gordon to center field to replace last year’s starter, Jarrod Dyson, who later departed in free agency. Reviews of Gordon’s defense were positive during the spring, and Dipoto is confident the 29-year-old is amid a smooth transition after spending the first seven seasons of his career in the middle infield.

“We’re not worried about [Dee Gordon in center field],” Dipoto told FanGraphs’ David Laurila last month. “We looked at his athletic ability. We looked at the Statcast information we have and did an overlay of what kind of ground Dee would be able to cover. We imagined him playing center field, and with the naked eye it looks awesome. He’s going to make mistakes in games — there’s no question — but we’re going to live through that. He’s such a baseball guy. It looks natural for him right out of the chute.”

Dipoto mentioned Gordon’s athleticism, which is the key to his success in all aspects of the game. He brings almost no power to the table, evidenced by 11 home runs and an .073 ISO in 3,012 lifetime plate appearances, instead relying on his game-changing speed to make an impact offensively.

Gordon’s wheels helped him bat a passable .293/.329/.367 entering this season, and when he has gotten on base, he has terrorized opposing teams. Gordon has stolen 58-plus bags three times, including a major league-high 60 in 2017, along with consistently netting excellent marks in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. His baserunning prowess should be quite a boon for the Mariners, who were subpar in that department last year (per BsR) and have since lost Dyson’s team-high 28 steals.

While the Gordon acquisition was a bit costly from a financial standpoint, the Mariners avoided extravagant spending in free agency. Their largest guarantee (two years, $17MM) went to reliever Juan Nicasio, a failed starter who’s coming off his first full season in the bullpen. The 31-year-old divided 2017 among three teams (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and St. Louis) and held his own over 76 appearances and 72 1/3 innings, with a 2.61 ERA/2.98 FIP and 8.96 K/9 against 2.49 BB/9. He also induced ground balls at a respectable clip (45.6 percent), which wasn’t the case with Pagan (22.3 percent). Notably, Dipoto revealed in his previously linked discussion with Laurila that building a more grounder-heavy staff has been a focus recently.

“We’ve been a little more aggressive in trying to find more neutral pitchers,” Dipoto said. “In 2016, we were extremely fly-ball oriented. We needed to become a little more balanced.”

At 40.3 percent, Mariners pitchers recorded the majors’ second-lowest grounder rate in 2017. Although, recently signed reliever Wade LeBlanc may not help them improve in that aspect, as he registered a meager 36.7 grounder percentage prior to this season. Nevertheless, the Mariners brought in the lefty-throwing LeBlanc in the wake of the right-handed Phelps’ injury, though it’s unrealistic to expect the former’s production to approach the latter’s. LeBlanc, 33, has been a mediocre option throughout his career, including during a 2017 campaign in which he compiled a 4.50 ERA/4.28 FIP with 7.15 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, and an uncharacteristically solid GB percentage (45.9) in 68 innings with the Pirates. The former starter did collect more than three outs in 19 of 50 appearances, so he could help make up for the losses of Pagan and Phelps in that regard.

The Nicasio and LeBlanc signings didn’t exactly make for enticing headlines, but the Mariners’ reunion in free agency with outfielder Ichiro Suzuki certainly did. Ichiro is one of the greatest Mariners of all-time, of course, as he previously thrived with the franchise from 2001-12 after emigrating from Japan. Now the game’s oldest position player at 44, Ichiro is no longer the all-world performer he was for most of his initial Seattle stint. Ichiro generated below-replacement level numbers twice during his tenure with the Marlins from 2015-17, though he wedged a valuable 2016 between those years (.291/.356/.376, 1.4 fWAR in 365 PAs). It would make for a great story to see Ichiro return to that form now that he’s back with the club whose hat he’ll wear into Cooperstown. And hey, he’s off to a pretty nice start so far.

Read more

2017-18 Offseason In Review Series

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Here are the links to each team’s entry in the MLBTR 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  This post will be updated as more entries are published over the coming weeks.

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL East

AL Central

AL West

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

Despite their reported intention to rebuild, the Royals spent much of the offseason courting Eric Hosmer and made more short-term signings than trades that indicated a lengthy re-build is at hand. Kansas City still remains near the top of its payroll comfort zone, however, and looks like a long shot to contend.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Royals entered the offseason with several key pieces hitting the open market, including cornerstones Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas. Reports early in the offseason indicated that a lengthy rebuild was in store for a Royals club that would be open to listening to virtually any player on the roster.

Controllable lefties Scott Alexander and Ryan Buchter were quietly two of the team’s more appealing assets and found themselves shipped out alongside the onerous contracts of Joakim Soria and Brandon Moss. But Danny Duffy and Kelvin Herrera, the Royals’ strongest veteran trade chips, remained with the organization.

"<strongRotation depth has been an issue for the Royals, in no small part due to the tragic and untimely passing of Yordano Ventura last offseason. As the organization sought to move forward from such a heartbreaking, unforeseeable loss, the contributions of the team’s starters were meager, at best. Royals starters ranked 26th in baseball with just 867 1/3 innings thrown, and their collective 4.89 ERA was 24th among big league teams.

The trades of both Alexander and Buchter gave the Royals a pair of new Triple-A arms who could surface in the 2018 rotation at some point: Trevor Oaks and Heath Fillmyer. While neither is brimming with ace potential, both posted sub-4.00 ERAs last season (Oaks in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League). Jason Hammel is an easy trade candidate if he’s healthy and even remotely effective this season, while Nate Karns is coming back from thoracic outlet surgery. Oaks and Fillmyer will be among the first line of defense, along with Eric Skoglund, Miguel Almonte and perhaps offseason signee Scott Barlow, whom the Royals liked enough to give a surprising Major League deal.

With Alexander, Buchter and Soria all set to suit up elsewhere in 2018, the Royals faced some question marks in the ’pen, though the late addition of Grimm on a big league deal gave them an experienced arm. Blaine Boyer added another when he made the team after coming to camp as a non-roster invitee.

Trades of Soria and Moss (even with some cash included) combined with the departures of Hosmer, Cain, Jason Vargas and Mike Minor to help reduce the payroll heading into the ’18 season. Kansas City was reportedly aiming to trim its bottom-line number to around $110MM, and that would’ve been the case had the Royals not elected to capitalize on an awful market for free agents and score several late-winter bargains.

Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar were presumed to be destined for other teams as the Royals geared up for the aforementioned rebuild, but when their markets stagnated, the Royals provided a (relatively) soft landing place. Jon Jay, coming off a .376 OBP with the Cubs, gave the Royals a shockingly cheap option in center field, although a disappointing 80-game suspension for Jorge Bonifacio could push Jay to a corner.

Meanwhile, Lucas Duda was scooped up at a reasonable $3.5MM rate to fill in for Hosmer, and while he won’t replace Hosmer’s presence in the clubhouse, the two are more similar from an offensive standpoint than their contracts would suggest. Certainly Hosmer has age, durability and 2018 performance on his side, but the difference over the past two to three seasons isn’t as striking.

Along those same lines, it’s fairly notable that Kansas City was able to re-sign Moustakas and Escobar, plus add Duda, Jay and Grimm on one-year pacts for roughly the same amount that Hosmer will make on an annual basis on his new eight-year deal in San Diego. The Royals aren’t likely to contend this season, but they found late bargains as well or better than any team in the game.

Questions Remaining

Even with Jay on board, the Royals’ outfield is rife with question marks. Jorge Bonifacio’s 80-game PED suspension removed one possible corner option, and their primary left fielder, Alex Gordon, has declined enormously since re-signing with the Royals on a club-record $72MM contract.

The 2018 season could very well be a make-or-break year for Jorge Soler, who is running out of chances to make good on his once-considerable prospect billing. Similarly, former first-rounder Bubba Starling will eventually need to prove he’s worthy of continuing to occupy a 40-man spot once he returns from injury. Paulo Orlando is on hand as another option in the outfield, though the 32-year-old has never shown an ability to get on base in the big leagues.

Soler and Starling aren’t the only ones nearing a crossroads. Former No. 5 overall pick and top prospect Kyle Zimmer, whose career has been decimated by injuries, was already designated for assignment and could land with another organization. Infielder Cheslor Cuthbert is out of options and will rotate between the infield corners and DH as he looks to prove that he can hit his way into a long-term role. Hunter Dozier won’t have an immediate chance to contribute but eventually figures to receive an opportunity to prove he can be an answer at first base. If any from the group of Soler, Starling, Dozier and Cuthbert — a group once viewed as hopeful core components — falters in 2018, the Royals could conceivably look elsewhere.

The pitching staff, too, presents no shortage of puzzles. At present, it’s fair to wonder if the team can even field a remotely competitive rotation. Danny Duffy gives them a quality option atop the rotation, but veterans like Ian Kennedy and Hammel are coming off dismal seasons and are overcompensated. Jake Junis provided glimpses of hope in 2017 and should get a full year to earn a larger role. Beyond that, Eric Skoglund, Heath Fillmyer and Trevor Oaks are all possible options, but the potential certainly exists for a very bleak year among Kansas City starters.

Nate Karns, at one point, looked to be a lock to make the rotation. However, he opened the season on the DL with elbow issues and is now being viewed as a multi-inning reliever when he returns. The K.C. bullpen has two Rule 5 picks, Burch Smith and Brad Keller, in addition to rookie Tim Hill and three pitchers in need of rebounds: Kelvin Herrera, Justin Grimm and Brandon Maurer. Viewed through that lens, there are perhaps even more questions in the relief corps than there are in the starting mix.

Beyond the tricky process of determining which young in-house players, if any, will comprise part of the team’s long-term core, the Royals will also need to determine who’ll be on the trading block this summer. Duda, Jay and Escobar could all be on the move as veterans who signed one-year deals in the offseason. Herrera, a free agent next year, is quite likely to be marketed as well. Grimm could find himself on the block, too, if he can bounce back in his new environs. He’s controlled through 2019, which only adds to his appeal in that regard.

Perhaps the greatest question for the Royals is when the team should deal Duffy to another club. A healthy Duffy figures to be among the most talented and desirable chips on the summer trade market. On the one hand, he’s controlled through 2021, so there’s no urgency to move him and the front office can wait for an enticing offer. On the other hand, he’s not a Chris Sale– or Jose Quintana-esque bargain; Duffy is owed $60MM from 2018-21, which is hardly an unfair price but is also not a contract teeming with surplus value for a player with his lack of innings.

Deal of Note

All offseason, the Royals were open about their desire to bring Eric Hosmer back to the organization to serve as a leader and a mentor during what figures to be a lengthy rebuild. There was little, if any, talk about a reunion with Moustakas, who may even have placed some strain on his relationship with the team early in free agency.

“Moustakas had some expectations that were a little different, places he wanted to play,” GM Dayton Moore said in a February appearance with Soren Petro of 810 AM’s The Program. ” It was clear from the beginning that we weren’t a high priority.” Certainly, any hard feeling were placed aside when the Royals provided Moustakas with a landing spot after he spent four months languishing in free agency, though.

That the Royals were able to bring Moustakas back to Kansas City for a $6.5MM guarantee just months after he turned down a $17.4MM qualifying offer is nothing short of remarkable. While MLBTR’s five-year projection was, admittedly, aggressive and more bullish than some on our staff cared to be, pundits and industry folk alike were stunned to see his market crumble in such dramatic fashion.

Moustakas’ flaws were evident all along; he’s an OBP-challenged player with some degree of platoon issues who had a major knee injury in 2016 and diminished defensive ratings in 2017. Perhaps that made it foolish to project a massive contract to begin with, but Moustakas hit the open market in advance of his age-29 season and was fresh off a career-best 38 home runs. He’ll be better off next winter when he cannot receive a second qualifying offer — the new CBA stipulates that a player can only receive one QO in his career — but it seems likely that he’ll enter free agency with lesser expectations and be more amenable to early offers.

In many ways, Moustakas will now stand out as one of the poster boys for the manner in which increasingly like-minded and analytically-inclined clubs have devalued sluggers with limited on-base skills and questionable defensive value. Home runs are no longer guaranteed to earn a prime-aged player a sizable payday.

Overview

Moore professed all offseason that outside of Hosmer — whom the club deemed an exception — the economic component of free agency was going to be a limiting factor to any of the team’s pursuits. To that end, the Royals did well to secure several bargains who could be flipped to strengthen a farm that was heavily depleted over the club’s four-year run at or near the top of the AL Central division.

It’s somewhat of a surprise that Kansas City didn’t further tear down the roster, though perhaps the offers for players like Herrera (down season in ’17) and Duffy ($60MM remaining on his contract) were underwhelming enough that Moore and his staff felt better served to wait for them to rebuild some value early in 2018.

Regardless, the Royals figure to focus on paring back payroll and replenishing a diminished prospect pipeline in 2018-19 at the very least, as the ramifications of aggressively depleting their farm system in order to secure consecutive World Series appearances have now manifested in the form of an overpriced big league roster, a thin farm and an ugly long-term payroll outlook. Late bargains for some quality role players aside, the Royals aren’t likely to contend anytime soon, though few Kansas City fans will complain with the 2015 World Series still fresh in their memory.

How would you grade the Royals’ offseason? (Link to poll for app users)

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A major roster overhaul didn’t entirely signal a new direction for the franchise, as the Rays stopped just short of a rebuild and are hoping to take an unconventional approach to competing in the AL East.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Rays 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Rays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

For the last couple of years, the conventional wisdom surrounding the Rays has been that they wouldn’t pursue a rebuild until Chris Archer and Evan Longoria were traded.  Archer is still here, as no team was willing to meet Tampa Bay’s enormous asking price for the ace, but Longoria’s days as the face of the franchise came to an end when the longtime third baseman was moved to the Giants as the centerpiece of a five-player blockbuster.

The Longoria trade more or less opened the floodgates on the Rays dealing several of their most notable players.  It was known that the team was preparing to trim payroll this winter, and with a large and increasingly expensive arbitration class on the books, many of those names now find themselves in different uniforms.  Gone is Jake Odorizzi, traded to the Twins for a low-level prospect in what was essentially a dump of his $6.3MM salary.  Gone are 30-homer man Steven Souza and former closer Brad Boxberger to the Diamondbacks in separate trades.  Gone is 2017 All-Star Corey Dickerson, sent to the Pirates for a reliever in Daniel Hudson who has since been released.

Combined with a significant list of free agent departures (i.e. Alex Cobb, Tommy Hunter, Logan Morrison) and a few more arb-eligibles that were just let go for no return (Dan Jennings, Chase Whitley, Xavier Cedeno) and it makes for a pretty stark roster exodus for Tampa Bay.  The fire sale would’ve been even more pronounced if the Rays had found takers for Brad Miller or Alex Colome, the latter of whom at least drew some significant trade interest.

Still, there is a glass half-full way to look at the Rays’ moves.  Firstly, the team hadn’t had a winning season since 2013, so it isn’t like the Rays are breaking up a dynasty.  Secondly, the moves are perhaps more palatable to Tampa fans if you look past the names of the players and instead just look at their recent production.

Longoria, for instance, is a franchise icon, but also a 32-year-old coming off his worst offensive season (96 wRC+) and owed $86MM through his age-36 season.  Odorizzi was a replacement-level pitcher last season, posting the highest hard-hit ball and homer rates of his career.  Dickerson’s numbers cratered badly over the last three months of 2017, while injuries limited Boxberger to just 53 2/3 innings total over the last two seasons.  The Souza trade is a bit of a tougher swallow given his breakout performance and affordable remaining control, but as Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom recently explained, the club felt it too good an offer to pass up.  (Indeed, newly-acquired southpaw Anthony Banda may end up playing a significant role in Tampa’s rotation in this very season, as we’ll explore more in depth later, while Nick Solak is an interesting prospect in his own right.)

Aside from Banda, Denard Span and Christian Arroyo look to have the most potential2018 impact of any of the players acquired in these trades.  Span’s inclusion was in the Longoria deal was mostly about offsetting the salaries involved. Since the Rays were unable to flip him in another deal, the veteran will open the season as the team’s first choice left fielder.  Beyond Span being reinvigorated by playing in his hometown, the move from center field to left should help Span regain some defensive value, and his consistently-good numbers against righty pitching make him a productive member of a platoon.

Arroyo showed little over his first 135 plate appearances as a big leaguer, though a pair of hand injuries kept him from ever establishing any sort of a rhythm.  The infielder is still just 22 years old and has been a fixture of top-100 prospect lists over the last few seasons (MLB.com still ranks Arroyo 81st on their current listing), so Arroyo still shows a lot of promise as a potential third or second baseman of the future in Tampa Bay.  He could find himself at the hot corner this year should Matt Duffy run into any more injury issues or simply fail to produce.

With all of these holes opening up on the roster, the Rays made a number of low-cost trades and signings to create a number of platoon possibilities.  Second base could see the Rays use Daniel Robertson against lefties and newly-acquired Joey Wendle against righties, with Arroyo or top prospect Willy Adames also potentially factoring into the keystone picture at some point.  Utilityman Rob Refsnyder can also play second base , though it’s more likely that he’ll be used as a right-handed hitting complement for Span in left field.

C.J. Cron could technically share time at first base with Brad Miller, though the likelier scenario is that Cron gets the bulk of everyday at-bats while Miller is the DH, with other players rotating into the DH spot to spell Miller against left-handers.  Cron was the odd man out of a crowded first base/DH picture with the Angels, paving the way for the Rays to land him at a low prospect cost and add a career 107 wRC+ player to their regular lineup.

The other big everyday addition was Carlos Gomez, signed as Souza’s replacement for right field on a one-year, $4MM contract.  Gomez may have been one of several players harmed by the free agent signing lull this offseason, as a .255/.340/.462 slash line over 426 PA with the Rangers last season seemingly could’ve or should’ve earned him a larger deal (MLBTR projected Gomez for two years and $22MM).  Gomez is an injury risk, though the move to right field should help his defensive numbers and he already showed some revival on the basepaths last year, with 13 steals and a +2.1 mark in Fangraphs’ Baserunning metric.  With the possibility of some DH time and Mallex Smith on hand to spell Gomez against some right-handers, Tampa may have scored a bargain in a valuable regular for just $4MM.  For perspective, Gomez posted 2.3 fWAR in 426 PA while Dickerson managed 2.6 fWAR but in 629 PA.

Several veteran relievers departed the Rays’ bullpen this winter, though Sergio Romo will stick around after signing a $2.5MM deal for 2018.  Romo looked like a new man after joining the Rays in a midseason trade from the Dodgers, rebounding from a rough performance in L.A. and posting a 1.47 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and a 4.00 K/BB rate over 30 2/3 innings in a Tampa uniform.  Romo will slot in as Colome’s setup man and be one of the few traditional relievers in a bullpen that will be loaded with swingmen.

Questions Remaining

With more and more teams choosing to adopt the wholesale rebuild model recently used to great success by the Astros and Cubs, the old idea of “rebuilding on the fly” has come to be seen as a half-measure at best and a fool’s errand at worst.  One can’t fault the team’s braintrust (owner Stuart Sternberg, president Matt Silverman, GM Erik Neander, and Bloom) for wanting to remain competitive rather than bottom out entirely, though without even a .500 record to show from the last four seasons, the Rays are in the dreaded treading-water area of not actively tanking but also not actually contending.

Had the Rays decided earlier that a rebuild was necessary, they would’ve had much more to show from their trades of veteran talent.  It could be argued that they sold high on Souza, though Tampa would’ve landed a much higher return on Odorizzi last winter before his rough 2017 season cratered his value.  It was surely painful to part ways with Longoria even when they did, though trading him a year earlier, when Longoria was coming off an outstanding 2016 season, could’ve netted the Rays the type of prospect package that immediately set the table for a new contention window.

In fairness, however, it surely didn’t help the Rays that they were shopping these trade chips in a market already flooded with talent due to a stalled free agent market.  Moving Dickerson for a decent return, for instance, proved to be impossible since so many other power bats were available at bargain prices.  (Of course, it’s a bit odd that they took the deal they did, as they could have saved quite a bit more money by simply releasing Dickerson. Perhaps the club believes in prospect Tristan Gray.) Still, that just adds to the argument that Tampa Bay was too late rather than too early in dealing some of these players.  Trading higher-priced players is a way of life for a small-market team, though failing to get much back from those trades when they do happen is a major setback.

The Rays didn’t provide much on offense last season apart from hitting home runs, and in theory a heavier usage of platoons and the addition of more athletic baserunners can help add dimensions to the lineup.  Still, the power shortage is hard to ignore — as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently observed, 171 of the 228 home runs hit by Rays players in 2017 were provided by players no longer on the roster.

The likes of Cron, Gomez, or Span aren’t known for providing a lot of pop, so runs could still be hard to come by unless Kevin Kiermaier takes another step forward as a hitter or Brad Miller returns to his 2016 form.  The Rays were known to be looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder to share time with Span in left field or Miller at DH, and despite several prominent bats still available on the market, the team seemed to settle for Refsnyder, who has yet to exhibit any hitting prowess as a big leaguer.

The losses of Cobb and Odorizzi left the Rays short on proven pitchers, and while the team had young arms to help pick up the slack, the Rays are planning to address the rotation in rather curious way.  Inspired by the additional off-days in this year’s MLB schedule and the number of multi-inning arms available in the bullpen and upper minors, Tampa planned to deploy a four-man rotation of Archer, Jake Faria, Blake Snell, and Nathan Eovaldi. The traditional fifth spot in the rotation would be accounted for by bullpen days where several pitchers combine for one, two, or three innings apiece.  Three rookies (Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Andrew Kittredge) were kept on the roster with intentions of filling large roles in this plan as multi-inning relief options.

It’s a bold plan to say the least — potentially quite an innovative one given the increased use of relief pitching in baseball over the last few years and the analytic advantage shown to exist by not letting batters get multiple looks at a pitcher’s arsenal.  Unfortunately for the Rays, however, the cracks in the idea have already started to show due to a raft of pitching injuries afflicting the team.  Two of Tampa’s top pitching prospects (Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon) are lost until 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, while Eovaldi will also start the year on the DL and is himself headed for another elbow surgery (albeit one that’s not as momentous as the two TJ procedures he has already undergone).

With Eovaldi gone, the Rays will try to get by with a three-man rotation for as long as possible.  It remains to be seen if the Rays could simply elevate someone like Banda or Matt Andriese into the rotation in Eovaldi’s place, or if the team could eventually settle into a more traditional five-starter alignment as the season progresses.  Regardless, Tampa Bay is putting a lot of faith in a lot of untested arms, and any further injuries will only further thin out the heavy number of pitchers necessary on the Major League and minor league rosters to properly execute such an idea.  It’s an experiment that, frankly, would make more sense for a team that was in a complete rebuild and could afford to lose games while tinkering with the mechanics of how a four-man rotation would work.  Facing the heavy lineups of the AL East is difficult enough for any pitching staff, let alone one in a constant state of managing innings. Nevertheless, it’ll be interesting to see how things unfold.

The Rays’ current payroll of roughly $79.5MM actually sits a bit higher than their $76MM figure at the end of last season, though they gained far more future flexibility by getting so many of the arbitration-eligibles off the books and by unloading Longoria’s contract.  The fact that a payroll approaching even $80MM is a major obstacle for the Rays, however, hasn’t escaped the attention of the players’ union, as the Rays were one of four teams named in an MLBPA grievance about how those clubs were spending money received under the league’s revenue-sharing plan.  While the results of the grievance remain to be seen, it doesn’t seem that the Rays’ financial situation is likely to change until the team finally gets a new ballpark.

Overview

Neander insists that tanking isn’t in the Rays’ vocabulary, and that the team’s moves will help build a bridge to the arrival of Adames, Honeywell, Arroyo, Jake Bauers, Brendan McKay, and others as the young core of a future contender.  With a push for a new ballpark underway, it certainly makes added sense not to pare things back too severely. Between the veteran additions, full seasons for Kiermaier and Wilson Ramos, and the potential upside of the pitching plan, there is some reason for optimism, though quite a bit would have to go right for a run at playoff contention.

What’s your take on the Rays’ winter?  (Link for app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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This piece is part of MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Pirates moved two key veterans and dropped their payroll this winter, but did not embark upon a full rebuilding course.

Major League Signings

  • None
Trades and Claims
Option Decisions
  • Exercised $14.5MM club option over OF Andrew McCutchen
Extensions
Notable Minor-League Signings
Notable Losses

Pirates Depth Chart; Pirates Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Need is certainly a term that’s subject to being defined, even in the baseball context. For the Pirates, it seems, this offseason was focused on tweaking the overall roster mix to infuse some youth and draw down payroll. The Pirates’ sparse payroll has long been a source of consternation for the team’s fans. But complaints against owner Bob Nutting reached a new high this winter after a pair of trades sent away two core players.

Spending on MLB players had ramped up steadily from 2011 to 2015 — the season in which the Bucs peaked at 98 wins but also fell for the second consecutive season in the Wild Card play-in game. In the ensuing campaign, the Pittsburgh organization moved up to just under $100MM to open the season and expanded its spending to just shy of $110MM by the end of the year. But many felt that the team missed a chance to make further investments around a strong core.

Then, last season, the Pirates saw a reduction in their Opening Day payroll and did not expand past the $110MM line by the end of a disappointing campaign. As the 2018 season draws near, it’s clear that the Pirates will be taking a big step back in spending, with around $85MM on the books.

Getting there meant structuring two key swaps. First, the Bucs agreed to send staff ace Gerrit Cole — the former first overall draft pick — to the Astros in exchange for a four-player package. Favoring a spread of useful MLB-ready talent over a big-name headliner, the Pirates brought in three players who’ll likely step right onto the active roster.

Colin Moran will help account for the fact that Jung Ho Kang likely won’t ever play for the Pirates again. The former sixth overall draft pick will try to make good on his own promise after a strong 2017 campaign at Triple-A. Joe Musgrove will give the team a useful and affordable rotation piece or swingman who helps fill in for the loss of Cole. And the high-powered Michael Feliz will be inserted right into a setup role, where he’ll try to harness his big-time stuff — as is reflected in his 96.6 mph average fastball and 14.2% swinging-strike rate in 2017. Feliz could function in the high-leverage role that Juan Nicasio held for much of 2017, before a controversial September move that allowed Nicasio to land with the division-rival Cardinals.

The Cole swap, then, helped fill quite a few openings that had been facing the team entering the winter. Moran will join Jordy Mercer on the left side of the infield, after the Pirates decided to hang onto their long-time shortstop. I had suggested in assessing the team’s outlook last fall that Mercer could be jettisoned, but the Bucs decided he was worth a $6.75MM arbitration tab.

Moving Cole made it all but certain that long-time franchise face Andrew McCutchen would also be dealt. The eventual move brought in one MLB-ready asset in righty Kyle Crick, along with prospect Bryan Reynolds, but it was mostly about trimming salary. The Giants took on all but $2.5MM of the cash owed to McCutchen, who will be eligible for free agency following the season.

All in all, the trade was something of an anti-climactic way for Cutch’s storied tenure in Pittsburgh to come to a close. He is, at least in part, still within his prime years, so this wasn’t just a fond goodbye to a broken-down veteran. At the same time, recent struggles (and a glut of outfielders in free agency) left McCutchen without much of a market, so there wasn’t a major haul of talent coming back in return.

Though Crick will factor into the depth in 2018, he won’t make the Opening Day roster. One new addition will, though: lefty Josh Smoker. The former first-round pick, who has been resurgent as a reliever, is the only one of several low-cost pick-ups who stuck on the 40-man roster all winter and spring long. (Rule 5er Nick Burdi is also still around, though his fate won’t begin to be decided until he’s back from Tommy John surgery.)

Had the offseason ended there, we might’ve seen riots at the gates of PNC Park. But the Bucs front office went on to strike a deal for outfielder Corey Dickerson — who had been designated for assignment by the Rays — that was at least a win in terms of public relations. Dickerson, after all, was an All-Star in 2017 and only required the addition of $1.45MM in salary since the Bucs shed Daniel Hudson (whom the Rays later released) in the deal. While it had seemed the team would utilize a platoon involving the lefty hitting Daniel Nava to replace McCutchen, they’ll instead plan to utilize Dickerson as the primary left fielder. He’ll need to bounce back from a dreadful second half in 2017, but there’s little denying that he gives the Pirates’ lineup a significant boost at a minimal cost.

Questions Remaining

In the aggregate, the offseason decisions left the Pirates with a roster mix that includes quite a few young players as well as some veteran holdovers. The Bucs will use the coming season to see whether they can make out a new slate of core performers while trying to contend in a tough NL Central. If the team can’t keep pace, some mid-season trades and promotions could well result.

In the rotation, Ivan Nova will serve as the veteran leader of an otherwise youthful group. He could well end up as trade fodder if there’s a summer sell-off. Musgrove will join a unit that’s expected to feature Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, and Chad Kuhl to open the season. The top 40-man depth options are Nick Kingham and Clay Holmes, though it certainly seems possible that the Pirates will look into adding some veteran pieces as players come available.

If the young guns perform as hoped, this could be a solid, cost-efficient unit. But there’s also quite a bit of uncertainty and the group isn’t exactly teeming with upside. If there’s a front-of-the-rotation breakout candidate on hand, it may be long-time top prospect Tyler Glasnow, but his near- and long-term outlooks remain unclear. Glasnow dominated last year at Triple-A but scuffled in the bigs. He got plenty of swings and misses in camp but will begin the year in the bullpen after allowing 13 earned runs in his 16 innings of Grapefruit League action.

Otherwise, the relief unit will again be led by Felipe Rivero, who inked a long-term deal with the club over the winter (as discussed further below). The aforementioned Feliz will join veteran George Kontos in the late-inning unit. The remainder of the pen is loaded with affordable, controllable but largely unestablished pitchers, including Smoker, Edgar Santana, Dovydas Neverauskas, and Steven Brault. Depth comes in the form of Crick, minor-league signees Kevin Siegrist and Bo Schultz, and a group of others that aren’t on the 40-man roster. Not unlike the rotation, the Pirates are staking wagers on quite a few inexperienced arms in their relief corps.

In terms of position players, the Bucs will hope that their outfield unit is able to morph back into a strength. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are both talented players signed to affordable long-term deals. Whether or not they can turn in full and productive seasons will go a long way toward deciding the team’s immediate fate. Dickerson could be a nice addition to this unit, though the 28-year-old will need to bounce back from a .232/.273/.397 slash and 28.4 percent strikeout rate from July 1 through season’s end. With one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, Dickerson could potentially end up as a trade candidate at some point in the relatively near future.

Potential trade candidates also populate the infield. Backstop Francisco Cervelli is earning $10.5MM this season and $11.5MM for 2019. If he can stay healthy, he could still be a quality asset. The versatile Josh Harrison, who’s slated to be the regular second baseman, came up in talks all winter long after a strong 2017 season. Though he’s plenty useful to Pittsburgh and remains controlled for two more seasons beyond 2018, he also isn’t all that cheap with option values of $10.5MM and $11MM. Then, there’s Mercer, who’ll again command near-everyday time at short but is entering a walk year.

It’ll surely be interesting to see how the middle-infield situation plays out over the coming season. Well-regarded prospects Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, and Kevin Kramer are pressing up from within; it’s not inconceivable that any of the bunch could warrant a first MLB promotion during the coming season.

The first base job will be left to Josh Bell after his strong 2017 campaign, but third base offers more possibility for intrigue. Colin Moran is going to get a shot to show his swing changes can sustain a power increase in the majors, with veteran David Freese there to face tough lefties. Recent first-round pick Ke’Bryan Hayes is still a ways off, and Freese isn’t considered a regular option at this stage of his carer, so the odds are that Moran will receive a long look.

In addition to the promising youngsters noted above, there are loads of depth pieces on hand in the event that trades, injuries, or stumbles intervene to create a need. Adam Frazier and Sean Rodriguez will be the Bucs’ lefty and righty Swiss Army knives, serving as substitute options in both the infield and outfield. Max Moroff and Chris Bostick are alternative 40-man utility choices, while Jose Osuna is likely the first man up in the outfield after a nice spring. Other outfield possibilities on the 40-man are Jordan Luplow and Austin Meadows, the long-time top prospect who is aiming for a bounceback campaign.

Deal of Note

Felipe Rivero | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It became something of a gag that the Pirates inked Rivero not long after dealing away Cole and Cutch — as if that relatively limited financial commitment could make up for parting with the team’s most talented pitcher and long-time superstar. But the Rivero pact was a legitimately notable extension that should move the needle in the long run.

The 26-year-old lefty, who was acquired from the Nationals for half a year of Mark Melancon, harnessed his premium stuff to become one of the game’s best relievers in 2017. He pitched to a 1.67 ERA in 75 1/3 innings with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while also accumulating 21 saves after taking over the closer’s role partway through the season.

So long as he continues to handle the ninth, Rivero is likely keep aggregating the kinds of numbers that would lead to hefty arbitration earnings. The four seasons of arb control, beginning in 2018, quite likely would have cost a good bit more than the $22MM that Rivero will actually earn. Plus, the two years of $10MM options could be of quite some value, given the cost of premium relievers on the open market.

This sort of agreement just won’t be as momentous as earlier Bucs extensions — McCutchen, Marte, Polanco — have been (or could be). But it’s a move that improves the value of an already high-quality, existing asset. If the organization’s payroll is going to remain as tightly controlled as it has been, then this type of deal could one day free the Pirates to make one more addition to a hopeful contending roster.

Overview

It’s not difficult to imagine the MLB roster looking quite a bit different by year end than it does now. There are plenty of mid-season trade possibilities, though this roster shouldn’t be counted out entirely from contention. Regardless, the number of inexperienced pitchers in the majors and upper-level position prospects who’ll open in the minors could be a recipe for turnover. It’s tough to get excited over the moves, in the aggregate, but the reasoning behind the approach becomes a bit more apparent when one considers how many potentially worthwhile, cost-efficient 40-man pieces will be tested for the future. Of course, things would probably look a lot more compelling with a few more talented players on the roster and a few more dollars on the payroll.

What are your thoughts on Pittsburgh’s offseason? (Link for app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

The Blue Jays made depth a major priority this winter, making a variety of low-cost/solid-upside acquisitions to fill roster holes and (theoretically) help the club return to postseason contention.

Major League Signings

  • Jaime Garcia, SP: One year, $10MM (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2019)
  • Curtis Granderson, OF: One year, $5MM
  • Seung-hwan Oh, RP: One year, $2MM (includes $250K buyout of $2MM option for 2019; option vests if Oh makes 70 appearances)
  • Total spend: $17MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Blue Jays 25-Man Roster & Minor League Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

While injuries were a big problem for the 2017 Jays, the larger issue may have been that the club received virtually no help from the injury replacements.  Of the 60 players who saw action for the Jays in 2017, only 11 of them generated more than 1.0 rWAR.  Combine that overall lack of production with sub-replacement level years from regulars like Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales, and it was no surprise that the Blue Jays sputtered to a mediocre 76-86 record.  With this in mind, the Jays engaged in a near-total overhaul of the bench while also saying farewell to franchise icon Bautista and several other players (Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, Ezequiel Carrera) who saw a lot of playing time last season.

Of course, Goins and Barney weren’t supposed to get nearly the 821 combined plate appearances they received last year, but the two light-hitting infielders were pressed into regular duty thanks to extended injury absences from Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.  With those two players still big question marks health-wise this season (and Tulowitzki already sidelined to begin the season), Toronto loaded up on infield help, acquiring Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz, and Gift Ngoepe in separate trades with the Padres, Cardinals, and Pirates, respectively.  Danny Espinosa was also signed to a minor league deal for further depth at shortstop and second base.

Diaz looks to be the starting shortstop with Tulowitzki out, and there’s certainly upside to be found in a player who was an All-Star as recently as 2016.  After his rookie breakout season, however, Diaz slumped to just a .259/.290/.392 slash line last year, both losing his starting shortstop job to Paul DeJong and also getting a demotion to Triple-A.  At worst, Diaz looks to be a solid bench piece for Toronto, and he could potentially be a steal if his 2017 proves to be just a sophomore slump.

Solarte’s trade value took a bit of a hit after a below-average (93 wRC+) offensive year with the Padres last season that saw him hit .255/.314/.416 with 18 homers over 512 PA.  Still, the Jays didn’t have to give up much in the way of prospect capital in the trade, and Solarte is only owed $4MM this season before a pair of pricier club options ($5.5MM in 2019, $8MM in 2020) must be addressed.  He can play all over the infield and could even handle left field in a pinch, plus the switch-hitting Solarte has solid numbers against right-handed pitching, which will help balance out a very right-handed Toronto lineup.

With Bautista gone and Steve Pearce best suited for part-time duty, the Jays had holes in both corner outfield spots that they addressed with both short-term and longer-term options.  Veteran Curtis Granderson signed a one-year, $5MM deal, and his left-handed bat is a natural complement to play alongside the southpaw-mashing Pearce in left field.  Granderson has posted above-average offensive numbers against all pitching over the last three seasons, and with Pearce spelling him against southpaws, Granderson could become even more of a force in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.  Though his on-base numbers have dropped off over the last couple of years, Granderson still projects to be Toronto’s leadoff hitter when facing a righty starter.

Another deal with the Cardinals saw the Jays acquire Randal Grichuk to step into the everyday right field role, though Grichuk is capable of playing all three outfield positions in a pinch.  Like Diaz, Grichuk was also seemingly on his way to becoming a regular in St. Louis after posting a nice breakout season (.276/.329/.548 with 17 homers over 350 PA in 2015) but has since trailed off, still displaying some solid power but subpar batting averages and on-base numbers.  Grichuk arguably isn’t the best fit for a team that already had lots of trouble with strikeouts and lack of contact in 2017, though at age 26 and under control for three more years, he could still blossom after a change of scenery.

Joe Biagini’s struggles last season left a vacancy in the fifth starter spot, as the Jays will instead use Biagini as Triple-A depth after signing veteran Jaime Garcia to eat innings and generate ground balls.  Toronto’s solid infield defense should mesh well with Garcia’s grounder-heavy style, and a good season could see him remain for 2019 via a $10MM club option.

The Blue Jays also turned to veteran arms to bolster their bullpen, inking several notable names to minor league contracts.  Tyler Clippard and John Axford are favored to make the Opening Day roster over the likes of Jake Petricka, Al Alburquerque, and Craig Breslow, and if enough of these pitchers opt to remain in the organization, it will give Toronto quite a bit of extra bullpen depth.  Beyond the minors deals, the Jays also brought in yet another ex-Cardinal in Seung-hwan Oh on a Major League contract to add to the setup mix behind closer Roberto Osuna.

Questions Remaining

While Grichuk, Solarte, and Diaz all underachieved in 2017, they don’t need to produce much in 2018 to improve on what Bautista, Goins, and Barney did (or didn’t do, to be more accurate) last season.  Between the new trio and Granderson, the Jays acquired much more positional and matchup flexibility than they had on last year’s roster, and they were able to bring in these reinforcements for a relatively small cost in cash and prospects.

The biggest question still facing the Blue Jays, however, is whether more than just mid-tier acquisitions were needed to keep the team afloat in a very competitive AL East.  In an offseason that saw the Yankees land Giancarlo Stanton and the Red Sox sign J.D. Martinez, Toronto’s more modest adds don’t quite seem enough to close the gap with the two division powerhouses.  If the Jays’ best path to the postseason is through the second AL wild card spot, it isn’t clear if they’ll have enough to battle the Twins or Angels, to name two clubs who made bigger splashes on the transaction front.

This isn’t to say that the Blue Jays didn’t at least explore some higher-profile moves, as the team was linked to the likes of Martinez, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Andrew McCutchen, and Alex Cobb on the rumor mill.  Instead, in settling for a group of players that aren’t guaranteed beyond the 2018 season, the Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins front office gave itself some flexibility in deciding if this current talent core is really a contender, which is an open question in the wake of the mediocre 2017 campaign.  Even if the newcomers all perform as expected, it won’t lead to much progress in the standings if the rest of the team can’t stay healthy or rebound from what was almost a team-wide (save for Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman and Justin Smoak) set of disappointing seasons.

Reports from Spring Training about Devon Travis’s knee issues and Aaron Sanchez’s recovery from blister and finger problems are promising, though the Jays won’t really feel comfortable about either player until they get some solid playing time under their belts.  As noted earlier, Tulowitzki is already facing another DL stint and the veteran shortstop isn’t certain when he’ll be back on the field.  The Jays didn’t make any upgrades at backup catcher, so they’ll be hoping that Russell Martin far surpasses his 91-game total from 2017, lest Luke Maile or rookie prospect Danny Jansen be pressed into regular work.

Garcia gives the Jays five solid starting pitchers in a rotation that could be quite good if Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada all bounce back to their past form.  Beyond those five, however, Biagini leads a very inexperienced crop of starters at Triple-A, and there aren’t any obvious swingman-types on the 40-man roster aside from Biagini himself to easily step in for spot duty.

Problems in the rotation will lead to more work for the bullpen, coming off a season that saw the Blue Jays post the third-most relief innings of any team in baseball.  While the veteran signings represent fresh arms, none of them are coming off particularly good seasons (hence their availability on minors contracts), so it remains to be seen if they’ll be able to contribute properly.  Oh, for instance, saw his contact and homer rates increase from 2016, and he represents something of a wild card as he enters his age-35 season and his third year in North American baseball.

Finally, Donaldson’s future has been a notable subplot of the Jays’ offseason, though the team was adamant all along that it wasn’t looking to trade its star third baseman.  (The Cardinals were one team known to be interested, and it’s quite possible the Grichuk and Diaz trades might have branched out of any inquiries St. Louis made about Donaldson.)  As of February, extension talks between Donaldson and the Jays didn’t seem to be progressing, and the former MVP was already putting negotiations aside to focus on the season.

Donaldson has been hampered by some nagging injuries throughout the spring, including some calf soreness that stands out as particularly troubling given that a calf strain cost him a decent chunk of last season.  The Jays absolutely need Donaldson at full strength, firstly to help them contend and (in a worst-case scenario) so Donaldson could become a midseason trade chip in the event of another sub-.500 season.

Overview

The Blue Jays’ long-term plan is to ride an oncoming wave of prospects into regular contention in the AL East, with top minor leaguers Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Anthony Alford, Ryan Borucki, and Jansen all expected to reach the majors by 2019 at the latest.  The question is whether these youngsters will be reinforcing a team that’s already vying for the postseason, or one that has taken a step back to rebuild for 2020 or 2021.

Based on the Jays’ maneuvers this offseason, they’re hedging their bets about either scenario.  If last season really was just an injury-riddled fluke, Toronto could take a lot of teams by surprise in 2018.  Raising a talent floor is a much more cost-effective strategy than raising a talent ceiling, particularly for a Jays club that has so much money already tied up in players (i.e. Tulowitzki, Morales) who might not be very productive.  Then again, the Jays could improve by 10 wins and that still might not be enough in the wild card race, leaving the team wondering if they should’ve made a bolder acquisition or two for what could be the final seasons in Toronto for pending free agents like Donaldson, Estrada, Happ, Granderson, and Pearce.

What’s your take on the Blue Jays’ winter?  (Link for app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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This piece is part of MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason In Review series.  Click here to read the other completed reviews from around the league.

A 102-win Indians ballclub let all seven of its free agents depart this winter, and gave out just one guaranteed contract. The Tribe will bank on a sustained breakout from Yonder Alonso and some reinforcements from the farm to supplement a core that’s won the division two years in a row, in hopes that they can end MLB’s longest championship drought.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Option Decisions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Indians Depth Chart; Indians Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

One of the Indians’ most important decisions came right at the end of the 2017 season, as they elected to pick up their $11MM option over outfielder Michael Brantley. That call long seemed an easy one in the affirmative, but ongoing shoulder and ankle problems have added quite a lot of uncertainty to the 30-year-old’s outlook. It’s something of a risk for the Cleveland organization, but it seems Brantley is progressing well and he could still represent a significant value if he can make it back to full health and come anywhere near his peak level of production.

Otherwise, the Cleveland brass entered the offseason with a simple to-do list: re-sign or replace their outgoing free agents in order to keep last year’s team as intact as possible. After a 102-win season in which the club won an AL record 22 consecutive games, there wasn’t any need for a significant overhaul. Most of the core was under control headed into 2018, so the organization’s tapestry of talent would likely require only minor patches to be successful in the coming season.

It soon became evident that rival clubs valued the Tribe’s outgoing free agents far more than the team itself. Santana and Shaw both exceeded MLBTR’s expectations in terms of earning power, and departed for Philadelphia and Colorado, respectively. As each of their other five free agents found new homes, the Indians were forced to opt for the “replace” route.

The club signed Alonso to fill Santana’s shoes, added Davis and Upton Jr. to battle for Jackson’s role, and snatched up Belisle and Torres out of the late-winter reliever bargain bin. Mission accomplished, right? Well, sort of. While each of those moves serves the purpose of patching a hole left by a free-agent departure, each serves as the equivalent of purchasing a $200 laptop because you can’t afford a Macbook. They’ll do the same job, but they don’t come with the same kind of reliability. That leaves some questions as to whether the club will be able to enjoy the same success; if one of their replacement options collapses, they’ll suddenly have a problematic hole on the roster.

Alonso, for instance, is coming off a rare age-30 breakout season in which he became something of a poster boy for the fly ball revolution. Between the A’s and Mariners, he posted a strong .266/.365/.501 batting line with a career-high 28 home runs. That homer total far exceeded anything he’d ever done in the majors or minors, so there’s some understandable skepticism about whether or not he’ll be able to repeat such numbers as he enters an age in which baseball players typically begin to decline.

Still, perhaps that’s not giving enough credit to Alonso. He did, after all, make some clear changes to his swing that we can point to as evidence for his breakout. And he also altered his approach at the plate; those changes were mentioned far less by both the media and respected baseball statistic outlets, but contributed just as much to his breakout campaign. As Alonso himself put it in an interview with MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, “For me, it’s about driving the baseball, using my legs, doing things that I do. My pitch sequence. My pitch location. What pitches I can handle. What pitches I can’t. And then after that, just going and compete.” Focusing on the pitches he could handle worked out well for his on-base ability, as his walk rate spiked to a 13.1% clip that far exceeded his previous career high of 10.4%. The resulting .365 on-base percentage falls exactly in line with Santana’s career average, meaning that he’d actually prove a suitable replacement for the long-time Tribe slugger as long as he can continue a seemingly repeatable improvement in patience and pitch selection.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that even if Alonso doesn’t end up producing to his 2017 levels, the Indians have some reasonable backup solutions. It’s feasible that Edwin Encarnacion could shift out of the DH spot (though he certainly wouldn’t provide much value defensively), allowing someone like on-base machine Yandy Diaz to get at-bats as the team’s designated hitter. The club also has Bobby Bradley waiting in the wings, who ranks among the top first base prospects in baseball. Point being, if Alonso regresses significantly, the Indians can probably reshape their roster to accommodate without taking a sizeable hit to their run-scoring ability.

As far as the outfield goes, it’s difficult to imagine Davis, who was recently added to the 25-man roster, producing to the level that Jackson did last season. (Of course, Jackson himself was acquired on a minor-league deal.) The 37-year-old Davis brings with him the nostalgia of a memorable game-tying homer in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. But after he hit just .235/.293/.348 last season between the A’s and Red Sox, he probably won’t provide any real offensive value with his bat. His biggest asset to the team will be his stolen base ability, which continues to inexplicably persevere even as the outfielder approaches the age of 40.

Speaking of 37-year-old players, Belisle was also recently informed that he’s made the team. Though he’s not necessarily an exciting addition, he ’s a reliable presence for quality innings. Across the past three campaigns, the right-hander has posted a 2.96 ERA and has typically managed to out-pitch his peripheral statistics. Again, he’s not Shaw or Smith, but he’s certainly not a pushover. Considering the bullpen will still be led by Cody Allen and Andrew Miller, there’s not much to worry about, anyway. With an embarrassment of riches in the starting pitcher department, the Tribe will likely consider flamethrower Danny Salazar for a bullpen role if he continues to struggle in the rotation.

Questions Remaining

The club’s outfield crew isn’t likely to intimidate other contenders. While Lonnie Chisenhall and Brantley are terrific when they’re able to take the field, neither can seem to do so on a consistent basis. Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin have both shown great upside, but they’ve also had their weaknesses exposed; neither is a sure bet to find sustained success throughout the 2018 season. The even bigger overarching issue is that each of those four players bats from the left side of the plate. The Tribe’s only righty-hitting outfielders are Davis (see above) and Brandon Guyer, who was recently named to the Opening Day roster but struggled mightily last year and comes with injury concerns. While the team has some right-handed bats and switch-hitters elsewhere in the lineup, one has to imagine that such a severely lefty-heavy outfield puts them at a disadvantage against opposing southpaws.

The organization’s dearth of vertical depth in the bullpen department is no small matter, either. The club has seven solid relievers on the active roster, but the relief corps at Triple-A is a gaggle of waiver claims and offseason minor league signees. Though they’ve lucked out in the past with waiver claims like Tyler Olson, it’s statistically unlikely that they’ll continue to win the lottery with players that other teams let go. Of course, it’s fair to note too that the rotation depth could filter down to the pen if and when more of the team’s starters are at full health.

The health and production of second baseman Jason Kipnis is certainly up in the air after an injury-plagued age-30 season that ended up being one of the worst offensive showings of his career. His poor play resulted in a swirl of offseason trade rumors and uncertainty about his future in Cleveland, but he’s found his swing in training camp as evidenced by his six homers and .375 batting average in Cactus League play. It’s tough to know what to expect from Kipnis, but he’s an interesting bounce back candidate to watch.

The Tribe’s catching tandem of Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez isn’t what you’d call an offensive juggernaut, but they both provide plenty of defensive value and are likely to combine for another above-average performance in relation to the rest of the league. Beyond them, super-prospect Francisco Mejia is waiting in the wings, itching to prove himself in the event of an injury to one the aforementioned duo. Mejia’s more of a bat-first backstop, and his hit tool is one of the best in the minors. Indeed, the organization is even considering utilizing him in the outfield as a means of moving up his timeline to contribute in the majors (potentially offering another means of giving a boost to the uncertain outfield mix). While none of these three players is without his flaws, it’s hard to imagine catcher being a significant area of weakness for the Indians.

It’s more likely than not that we’ll see some kind of offensive decline from Encarnacion as the slugger enters his age-35 season. What that will look like isn’t easy to predict. Some sluggers like Paul Konerko only experienced a modest power drop-off at 35, while others such as Mark Teixeira seemed to have the rug pulled out from under them entirely at that age. As one of the few intimidating right-handed hitters in the Tribe’s lineup, they’ll be counting on him to offer at least something close to his usual power output.

Outside of that, the Indians appear well-poised to make another run at a championship. A rotation that produced the best fWAR of all time is back in its entirety, with reasonable depth options at Triple-A and a couple of impressive prospects in Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber not far off. The left side of their infield sports two MVP candidates in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to once again see those two combine to top 60 homers while providing stellar defense. All in all, questions about this team’s composition are little else but nit-picking.

Overview

The front office didn’t do much this offseason, and as such this iteration of the Indians doesn’t look quite as strong as the one that finished the season with 102 wins last year. But if they did get weaker, it certainly isn’t by much. The most important pieces remain on hand, and they have some intriguing depth in the form of high-upside prospects. That likely means a third consecutive AL Central championship and a return to the postseason.

How would you grade the Indians’ offseason work? (Poll link for app users)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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