Sorting Through The Orioles’ Rotation Options
The Orioles headed into the winter intent on adding a pair of veterans to the rotation, and while there was a substantial layoff between their first and second additions, with Kyle Gibson signing a one-year deal back on Dec. 5 and Cole Irvin not joining the staff until last Friday’s trade. That gives the O’s a pair of veterans who are plenty capable of eating up innings while still also leaving a fairly wide-open window for several younger arms to pitch their way into the team’s plans.
In all likelihood, the Orioles will wind up using ten or more starters over the course of the season. It’s commonplace for teams to cycle through far more than the five (or six) members of the Opening Day rotation — particularly younger teams like Baltimore, where the rotation will be composed primarily of yet-unproven starters and/or prospects whose workloads will be handled with care.
Locks
Kyle Gibson, RHP: Whether by design or by happenstance, the decision to bring in Gibson over 2022 staff innings leader Jordan Lyles wound up being a cost-neutral gambit, which will lead to inevitable comparisons between the two. The Orioles bought Lyles’ $11MM club option out for $1MM, then turned around and invested the exact same $10MM they saved into a one-year deal with Gibson.
The 35-year-old Gibson, like Lyles, is a workhorse by today’s standards. He’s averaged 29.875 starts per 162-game season, dating back to 2014, and made a full slate of 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has a below-average strikeout rate with solid command and above-average ground-ball tendencies. The O’s are going to count on him for 30-plus starts and 160-plus innings, although if they’re not in contention when the trade deadline rolls around, it’s easy to see them putting Gibson on the market.
Cole Irvin, LHP: For the second time in as many weeks, I’m listing Irvin as a “lock” in a team’s rotation while profiling their various options on the back end of the staff. As noted on that rundown of the A’s rotation, there was always a chance that Irvin could be moved, though a midseason deal felt likelier. The O’s instead jumped to add Irvin as a durable source of innings.
Over the past two seasons, he’s made 62 starts of 4.11 ERA ball with a well below-average 16.8% strikeout rate but a superb 5.2% walk rate as a member of Oakland’s rotation. That’ll be the type of production they’re looking for not just this year but for the next several seasons. Irvin is controlled for another four years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until next offseason.
There’s some risk in acquiring Irvin, who’s had far more success at the spacious Oakland Coliseum than on the road. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, the lefty owns a 3.44 ERA pitching in Oakland, where opponents have batted just .243/.288/.355 against him in nearly 800 plate appearances. In that same timeframe, Irvin’s road ERA is a more alarming 4.88, and opponents have pounced on him for a .285/.330/.491 slash. The O’s recently made their left field dimensions quite a bit more pitcher-friendly, but Irvin will still be facing some righty-heavy lineups within the AL East.
Pitchers who made 15+ starts in 2022
Dean Kremer, RHP: Kremer, 27, finished second on the Orioles with 125 1/3 innings pitched and notched a tidy 3.23 ERA last season despite a tepid 17% strikeout rate. Kremer, acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, doesn’t miss bats or keep the ball on the ground, but he has a better-than-average walk rate. Any regression in his 0.79 HR/9 mark or his 77.8% left-on-base rate — he entered the season at 2.12 and 65.1%, respectively — could spike his ERA closer to his 4.54 SIERA. That said, Kremer at least looks the part of a back-of-the-rotation arm. And, now that he’s poised to take on a larger workload, he should at least be a decent source of average-ish innings.
Kyle Bradish, RHP: One of four minor leaguers acquired in the trade sending Dylan Bundy to the Angels, Bradish ranked third on the 2022 O’s with 117 2/3 innings pitched. He missed more bats and generated more grounders than Kremer but was also more prone to both walks and home runs. Bradish’s 4.90 ERA isn’t much to look at, but while fielding-independent metrics feel Kremer had some good fortune in ’22, the opposite is true of Bradish, whose FIP, SIERA, etc. are all quite a bit lower than his earned run average. Both pitchers seem capable of turning in an ERA in the low- or mid-4.00s over 150-plus innings.
Spenser Watkins, RHP: A former 30th-round pick by the Tigers, Watkins signed with the O’s as a minor league free agent in Jan. 2021 and debuted as a 29-year-old rookie later that season. He tallied 105 1/3 innings for the 2022 Orioles, posting a 4.70 ERA along the way. Among the 156 pitchers with at least 150 innings thrown since 2021, no one has posted a lower strikeout rate than Watkins’ 13.7%. His 7.9% swinging-strike rate is fifth-lowest among that group. Watkins has good command and has posted solid numbers in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he feels like more of a depth option based on his big league work to date.
Tyler Wells, RHP: Baltimore’s most effective starter for much of the 2022 season, Wells carried a 3.09 ERA through his first 16 starts but needed a .225 average on balls in play to get there. That minimal BABIP and a 16.7% strikeout rate made the ERA look fairly dubious, and Wells indeed struggled mightily over his final few starts of the season. It should be noted that he missed more than a month due to a side injury and landed back on the shelf due to shoulder trouble to close out the year, but he nonetheless yielded a 7.39 ERA over his final 28 innings (seven starts). None of Wells, Kremer or Bradish miss bats at a particularly high level, nor do they possess elite command or ground-ball tendencies. They each have some appealing traits, however, and any of this trio could be a viable fourth/fifth starter.
Austin Voth, RHP: Continuing on that trend, Voth is another fly-ball pitcher with passable but not eye-catching strikeout and walk numbers. Claimed off waivers from the Nationals in early June, Voth made 17 starts and five relief appearances, pitching to a 3.04 ERA in that time. He’s not going to keep stranding 82% of the baserunners he allows — that’s 10 percentage points above the league average and above Voth’s career mark prior to 2022 — but he has the makings of a back-end starter, as he’s shown on occasion with the Nats in the past. Voth is out of minor league options, so he’s going to be on the roster either as a starter or as a swingman.
The Top Prospects
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP: The arm on which so many Orioles fans are pinning their hopes, the 23-year-old Rodriguez might have already made his big league debut were it not for a lat strain that sidelined him for half the 2022 season. Rodriguez, selected with the No. 11 pick of the 2018 draft, ranks among the sport’s top 15 overall prospects at each of Baseball America (6), MLB.com (7), ESPN (12) and The Athletic (15). A 6’5″, 220-pound righty armed with a four-pitch mix that’s headlined by an upper-90s heater and elite changeup, Rodriguez has genuine front-of-the-rotation potential.
Rodriguez is regarded as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects, and now that the new CBA actually reward teams for promoting prospects via potential draft compensation based on Rookie of the Year voting, Rodriguez will have a legitimate chance to make the Opening Day rotation. The O’s may want to be cautious, as that lat strain limited him to just 75 2/3 innings in 2022 and a jump to a full season of MLB starts would probably more than double that total. Rodriguez might be the organization’s best starter right now, even though he hasn’t made his MLB debut. He posted a combined 2.62 ERA across three minor league levels and did so with a mammoth 36.6% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. He’s going to make his MLB debut in 2023 — it’s just a matter of when.
DL Hall, LHP: Unlike Rodriguez, Hall has already made his debut at the MLB level, although it didn’t go as the team had hoped. The former No. 21 overall pick pitched in 11 games — 10 of them relief appearances — but was tagged for nine runs on 17 hits and six walks. The resulting 5.93 ERA wasn’t particularly encouraging, but Hall fanned 19 opponents (29.7%) and issued walks at a lower clip in the Majors than he had in Triple-A (9.4% versus 14.2%).
Command issues have long been the primary flaw scouts see in Hall — a 6’2″ lefty with a heater that averaged 96.4 mph during that MLB debut and multiple plus or better secondary pitches. Baseball America pegs Hall’s fastball as an 80 on the 20-80 scale, while also crediting him with a plus-plus slider, a plus curve and a plus changeup. Unfortunately, all of that is accompanied by well below-average command. Hall has walked 13.4% of his opponents in the minors, and in his 18 minor league starts this past season, he completed six innings just once. Some of that is the Orioles being cautious with an arm they hold in high regard, but Hall averaged 75 pitches per outing despite averaging under four innings per start. Certainly, he could stand to be more efficient.
Last year’s 98 innings were a career-high for Hall, who’s also missed ample time due to injury in his pro career. Between the lack of innings and the shaky command, many scouting reports feel he’s likelier to be a dynamic reliever than a starter, but the O’s will likely give him some considerable leash as a starter because the ceiling is so high.
Other options on the 40-man
Mike Baumann, RHP: The 27-year-old Baumann was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects as recently as two years ago, but a flexor strain cost him time and he hasn’t topped 100 innings in either of the past two seasons. The O’s have begun working Baumann out of the bullpen more frequently, and given the number of rotation options the organization has, that could be a better path to the big leagues for him. There’s benefit to keeping him stretched out as a starter, of course, but Baumann made just 13 starts to 20 relief appearances last year.
Bruce Zimmermann, LHP: A local product the O’s acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to the Braves back in 2018, Zimmermann has pitched in parts of three seasons for the O’s but never posted an ERA south of 5.00. In 145 MLB frames, he carries a 5.69 ERA (5.78 FIP, 4.43 SIERA) with a low 17.6% strikeout rate but a strong 5.7% walk rate. Zimmermann has averaged just 91.3 mph on his heater, and opponents have teed off on both that pitch and his changeup, clubbing an average of 2.23 homers per nine innings against the southpaw. Zimmermann still has a pair of option years remaining and has been good in Triple-A over the past two seasons, but he needs to find a way to curtail his issues with the long ball.
Drew Rom, LHP: The O’s selected Rom to the 40-man roster back in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The 2018 fourth-rounder split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, logging a combined 4.43 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and solid ground-ball tendencies. He’s not an overpowering lefty, but he’s pretty close to big league ready and the O’s clearly felt he’d have been poached in the Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. There are a lot of candidates for innings in Baltimore, but he’ll be in the mix to debut this year.
Recovering from injury
John Means, LHP: Baltimore’s best starter from 2019-21, Means logged a 3.73 ERA in 345 1/3 innings during that time and was named the Orioles’ Opening Day starter in 2022. He made just two starts last year before an elbow injury shelved him, however, and Means underwent Tommy John surgery in late April. That’ll take him out of the equation early in the year, but the O’s can hope for Means to return at some point over the summer. He only has two years of club control remaining.
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As things stand, the Orioles have two veteran locks (Gibson, Irvin), a series of righties who achieved solid results despite middling K/BB and batted-ball profiles in 2022 (Kremer, Bradish, Wells, Voth) and a pair electric prospects (Rodriguez, Hall) — the former of which is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball.
It’s a promising group, but the O’s will need to convert on Rodriguez and either see Hall improve his command or another young arm (e.g. Cade Povich) take a pronounced step forward in 2023. Baltimore’s system is rife with high-end bats but less stocked with arms. A rotation featuring Rodriguez (assuming he hits the ground running) and a host of No. 4 types is enough to compete, but it’s still a bit surprising that the team didn’t land a higher-profile arm this winter in an effort to bolster the starting staff. Perhaps the O’s are confident that an incumbent arm is on the cusp of a breakout, but right now Baltimore’s lineup looks more formidable than its rotation.
Injury Notes: Clevinger, Kittredge, Kremer, Gregorius
The Padres announced that right-hander Mike Clevinger has been reinstated from the injured list, with outfielder Brent Rooker being optioned in a corresponding move. After a lengthy absence from the majors while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Clevinger had to return to the IL after just three starts due to a triceps strain. Thankfully, he only required a minimum stay on the shelf and is quickly back on the roster, starting today’s game.
While many teams around the league are dealing with mounting injuries to their pitching staffs, the Padres now have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to their starting rotation. Clevinger joins Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Joe Musgrove, MacKenzie Gore and Blake Snell, with Nick Martinez likely getting bumped into a long-relief role. The club is off to a great start, sporting a record of 32-21, just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The strength of their rotation has played a big role in that, as their collective 3.11 ERA is fourth-best in all of baseball, trailing only the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros.
Some other IL reinstatements from around the league…
- The Rays announced that righty Andrew Kittredge has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Calvin Faucher being optioned to make room for him. Kittredge was slowed by some lower back tightness but is able to return after a minimum stay on the injured list. Last year, he threw 71 2/3 innings with a 1.88 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 53.5% ground ball rate. That success earned him a key role in the bullpen, as he eventually earned eight saves and seven holds. He wasn’t able to continue that this year, possibly due to this back injury. Over 18 innings, his ERA is an even 3.00, with a 19.7% strikeout rate and 44.2% grounder rate, though he’s limited walks to just 1.5% of batters faced.
- The Orioles reinstated righty Dean Kremer from the injured list today, with fellow righty Denyi Reyes being optioned in a corresponding move. Kremer landed on the injured list back in April due to an oblique strain. He is starting today’s ballgame for the O’s, which will be his season debut. His MLB time has been on the rough side so far, as his career ERA is currently 6.84 through 72 1/3 innings. However, while rehabbing from this injury, he’s thrown nine scoreless innings in the minors with a whopping 18 strikeouts against just two walks.
- The Phillies announced that they have reinstated Didi Gregorius from the IL, with Nick Maton trading places with him, heading to the IL due to a right shoulder sprain. Gregorius returns after about a month on the IL due to a left knee sprain. Prior to that, he was hitting .288/.338/.356 on the season. The resulting 97 wRC+ indicates that his bat has been about 3% worse than league average, though it’s still a big improvement over last year’s wRC+ of 68. Maton was just recalled a few days ago to provide help in the middle infield when Jean Segura landed on the IL, but will now join him on the shelf after just two games. Without those two options, it’s likely that Gregorious, Bryson Stott and Johan Camargo will now share the middle infield duties.
Orioles Select Spenser Watkins
The Orioles have selected the contract of right-hander Spenser Watkins, manager Brandon Hyde announced to reporters Monday (Twitter link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). Baltimore also recalled right-hander Alexander Wells from Triple-A Norfolk and placed righty Dean Kremer on the 10-day injured list due to an oblique strain. Outfielder DJ Stewart was optioned to Norfolk last night, so Watkins and Wells will fill the vacancies created by that move and by Kremer’s placement on the IL. Baltimore’s 40-man roster had previously been at 39 players, but it’s now full following Watkins’ selection.
This will be the second straight season that the 29-year-old Watkins has logged big league time in Baltimore. The longtime Tigers farmhand made his big league debut in Baltimore last year after signing a minor league deal in the 2020-21 offseason. Watkins had solid numbers in eight Triple-A games (six starts), pitching to a 3.53 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate in that time.
The big leagues were another story, however. Opponents jumped on him for 49 runs in just 54 2/3 innings — an 8.07 ERA. Watkins started off his big league career with just three runs through his first 16 1/3 innings, and he closed out the 2021 season with a more solid stretch of three runs allowed in his final 7 2/3 frames. The middle stretch of games proved brutal, however, as he served up 43 runs in 31 innings over seven starts and one relief appearance. Watkins has a 3.86 ERA in 625 1/3 innings at the minor league level, and he’ll now aim to carry some of that success over in his second go-around in the Majors.
As for the 25-year-old Wells, he signed with the O’s as an international free agent out of Australia back in 2015. He, too, made his MLB debut in Baltimore last season and experienced a rough set of results, serving up 32 runs in 42 2/3 innings (6.75 ERA). As with Watkins, Wells has considerably better numbers in the minors, where he’s pitched to a 2.87 ERA in 529 2/3 innings. That includes a 3.29 ERA in 54 2/3 Triple-A frames last year. Wells has punched out just 19.6% of his minor league opponents in his career, but he also boasts an outstanding 3.9% walk rate.
Orioles Option DJ Stewart To Triple-A
The Orioles have optioned DJ Stewart to Triple-A Norfolk, per the Orioles.
Counting the two plate appearances Stewart made before today’s game, Stewart has not appeared in five consecutive seasons for the Orioles. He saw the most action of his career last season, stepping to the plate 318 times with a triple-slash line of .204/.324/.374 with 12 long balls.
More roster moves appear to be on the way for Baltimore. Dean Kremer warmed up in the bullpen, but sat down again after apparently suffering an injury, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports. He appeared to have injured his left oblique. Stewart’s demotion could be meant to create roster space to add another arm while they await an update on Kremer, though that’s speculative.
The Orioles have a day or so to figure out their next move. With a day off on Monday, the Orioles will likely wait until early Tuesday to make an addition to the roster.
Roster Notes: Twins, Rockies, Orioles, Yankees
The Twins are likely to be without Taylor Rogers and Randy Dobnak for the rest of the season, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Rogers has missed most of the second half after spraining a finger at the end of July. Before the injury, Rogers was again effective for the Twinkies, appearing 40 times and posting a 3.35 ERA with nine saves and eight holds, though he does have four blown saves as well. Dobnak has essentially been a non-contributor. He went on the injured list with a finger sprain on June 21, and he struggled to open the year.
Let’s check on a couple of roster moves made early on Saturday…
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- The Rockies have reinstated Robert Stephenson from the paternity list and optioned Ben Bowden to Triple-A, per the team. The 26-year-old Bowden has a 6.56 ERA/4.84 FIP in 35 2/3 innings. Stephenson has been a productive member of the Rockies’ bullpen, tossing 38 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA/4.02 FIP.
- The Orioles have recalled Dean Kremer from Triple-A, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Kremer joins the club as their 29th man for today’s twin bill against the Blue Jays. Kremer will make his 13th start of the season and look to improve upon a 7.25 ERA/6.52 FIP.
- The Yankees outrighted Jonathan Davis to Triple-A today, per the team. Davis has been an extra man in the Yankees outfield, appearing in just 12 games after being claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays.
Orioles Designate Mickey Jannis For Assignment, Select Konner Wade
The Orioles announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of righty Konner Wade from Triple-A Norfolk and designated right-hander Mickey Jannis for assignment in a corresponding move. The O’s also optioned righty Dean Kremer to Norfolk and recalled lefty Alexander Wells.
Jannis was just selected to the major league roster earlier this week. The 33-year-old made his MLB debut Wednesday night against the Astros, but it didn’t go well. He worked 3 1/3 innings of mop-up relief but was tagged for seven runs on eight hits (including three homers), issuing four walks while striking out just one. It was a nightmare outing to be sure, but it also came against a Houston lineup that has been far and away the best in baseball this year. Before that tough debut, the knuckleballer earned a big league look by pitching to a 2.92 ERA in 24 2/3 innings with Norfolk. The O’s will have a week to trade him or place him on waivers.
The designation of Jannis frees up Wade to make a late-career MLB debut of his own. A 7th-round pick out of the University of Arizona in 2013, Wade has spent the past seven seasons climbing the minor league ladder. Most of that time was spent in the Rockies and Red Sox systems, but the 29-year-old signed a minor league deal with Baltimore over the winter. He’s spent the entire year in Norfolk, where he’s tossed 31 innings of 3.48 ERA ball, mostly as a multi-inning reliever. Wade has never been one to miss many bats, and that hasn’t changed this year (16.4% strikeout rate). But the righty also has a long history of quality strike-throwing, and that’s continued in 2021 (4.9% walk rate).
Kremer has spent much of the year in the O’s rotation. He’s struggled mightily, though, pitching to a 7.25 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk numbers (20% and 10.7%, respectively) over 49 2/3 innings. That’s a disappointing follow-up to a decent four-start MLB look in 2020 for Kremer, who’s long been seen as one of the more promising pitchers in the Baltimore system.
Wells is a decently-regarded prospect in his own right. The 24-year-old doesn’t throw hard or miss bats, but he owns some of the best control in the minors. He has a 5.63 ERA across 32 Triple-A frames this season. Wells will be making his major league debut whenever he gets into a game.
East Notes: McHugh, Orioles, Nationals, Sanchez, Jays
The Rays placed reliever Collin McHugh on the 10-day injured list with a back strain, relays Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Fellow righty Chris Mazza, who had recently been optioned, was recalled to take his place in the bullpen. It’s yet another injury for the Rays’ relief core, which had already lost Nick Anderson, Chaz Roe and Pete Fairbanks in the season’s early going. McHugh, signed to a one-year deal over the offseason, has pitched 5.1 innings for Tampa Bay to this point, allowing eight runs (six earned) but striking out five with just one walk issued.
More out of the AL and NL East:
- Orioles outfielder Austin Hays looks likely to be activated from the injured list on Tuesday, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 25-year-old was placed on the IL a little less than two weeks ago due to a hamstring strain, but it seems he’ll make a return in short order. Hays has played in exhibition games at the alternate training site in each of the past two days without issue, Kubatko notes. The Orioles also optioned right-hander Dean Kremer to the alternate site after his start last night in Texas, per Kubatko. A pair of scheduled off days obviate the need for a fifth starter, so Baltimore recalled Cole Sulser to add to the relief corps for now.
- Nationals manager Dave Martinez provided updates on a pair of sidelined pitchers this afternoon (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Starter Jon Lester will throw an 80-pitch simulated game on Tuesday as he builds up strength from a stint on the COVID-19 injured list. Lester is the only Washington player who remains sidelined from the team’s coronavirus situation at the beginning of the year. Reliever Will Harris, meanwhile, threw a 26-pitch bullpen session this morning and is again scheduled to do so Tuesday. The veteran righty has yet to make his season debut after undergoing surgery in late March.
- The Nationals also remain in contact with the representatives for free agent right-hander Aníbal Sánchez, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link). The veteran, who pitched for Washington from 2019-20, had been expected to sign earlier this month but he cut his finger during a showcase for teams, delaying those plans.
- The Blue Jays placed reliever Jordan Romano on the injured list on Thursday, but the team is hopeful he’ll return when first eligible April 25, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to note (Twitter links). Fellow righty Tyler Chatwood should also return in short order, while flamethrower Nate Pearson is in line to throw live batting practice Tuesday as he builds back from the groin injury that has delayed his season debut.
Examining The Orioles Rotation
For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.
Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.
Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.
Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.
Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.
What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.
The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.
On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.
Orioles Promote Dean Kremer
The Orioles announced this morning they are bringing up right-handed pitching prospect Dean Kremer. He’ll start this afternoon’s game against the Yankees, making his MLB debut in the process.
Originally acquired as one of five players Baltimore picked up from the Dodgers at the 2018 trade deadline for Manny Machado, the 24-year-old Kremer has a solid 2.69 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 137 career innings at Double-A. He was bombed for 19 runs in his four Triple-A starts last season, but he did rack up a strong 21 strikeouts against four walks in his brief time at the minors’ highest level.
Kremer is generally seen as one of the better prospects in the Baltimore system. The Athletic’s Keith Law, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhangen and Baseball America all recently placed him between ninth and thirteenth among Orioles’ farmhands. Those reports all peg his likely future as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
In order to protect him from last year’s Rule V draft, Kremer had already been added to the 40-man roster over the offseason. The threshold for players to accrue a full year of MLB service has long since passed, so if he’s in the majors for good, the Orioles control Kremer through 2026.
Orioles Add Dean Kremer To Player Pool
The Orioles announced Tuesday that they’ve added right-handed pitching prospect Dean Kremer to their 60-man player pool. He’s reporting to alternate training camp at the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate in Bowie, where he’ll be joined by righty Hector Velazquez, whom the club has optioned out of Summer Camp (per that same announcement). The O’s also put Richie Martin on the 60-day IL and removed him from their 60-man pool, which formally ends his season. Martin is set to undergo surgery to repair a broken wrist tomorrow.
Kremer, 24, was one of the pitchers acquired from the Dodgers in the trade that sent Manny Machado to Los Angeles. The former 16th-round pick had a solid year in 2019, reaching Triple-A and pitching to a combined 3.72 ERA with 9.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9 and a ground-ball rate just shy of 40 percent. Kremer also showed quite well in the Arizona Fall League (five runs on 13 hits and four walks with 23 strikeouts in 19 innings), and he’s generally considered one of the better pitching prospects in the rebuilding Orioles’ system.
Kremer ranks 11th or better among Orioles farmhands at Baseball America, FanGraphs an MLB.com, and scouting reports on the 6’3″, 180-pound righty project him as a fourth/fifth starter. Given that he’s already reached Triple-A and is on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, it’s quite possible that Kremer will make his MLB debut in 2020.