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Cardinals Appear Unlikely To Trade Ryan Helsley

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With the Cardinals viewing next season as an opportunity to transition to a younger core, various St. Louis players jumped out as logical trade candidates. Ryan Helsley was chief among them, as the hard-throwing righty is one year from free agency. Helsley is one of the best relievers in baseball and would surely get a lot of attention on the trade market.

Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that teams in contact with the Cardinals expect St. Louis to hold their closer into next season. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak supported that notion. “(A trade is) something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization,” Mozeliak told Rosenthal. That aligns with reporting from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who wrote last month that the Cards were inclined to keep Helsley unless blown away by the offers.

That stops a little short of taking him off the market entirely. It’s not quite as definitive a declaration as, say, A’s GM David Forst flatly stating they were going to keep designated hitter Brent Rooker last month. Still, it’s notable that the team’s front office leader went on record to downplay the possibility of a trade.

Helsley has had a dominant three-year run at the back of the bullpen. He broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

That level of production behind a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider would’ve made Helsley arguably the best reliever on the trade market. (One can debate whether he’s better than Milwaukee closer Devin Williams, who could be dealt before his final season of team control.) MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Helsley for a $6.9MM salary during his final trip through the arbitration process. That’s well below market price for a lockdown closer.

Carrying Helsley into next season would be a frankly puzzling decision. The Cardinals surely feel they’d get a ton of interest at next summer’s deadline, though there’s always the possibility of an early-season injury tanking his trade value. An offseason trade would also keep open the chance for an acquiring team to recoup draft compensation if Helsley walks in free agency. Teams can only make a qualifying offer to players they’ve had on the roster for the whole season. A team that acquires Helsley before Opening Day could make him a QO next winter; one that lands him at the deadline could not.

Qualifying offers for relievers are rare but not unheard of. Raisel Iglesias and Josh Hader declined QOs before their trips to free agency. Edwin Díaz would’ve received a QO had he not re-signed just before hitting the market. A typical Helsley season could put him in that tier. There’s enough volatility with relievers that he certainly wouldn’t be a lock for the QO, but that possibility could hold some value to other teams now and would not exist over the summer.

The Cardinals themselves could make Helsley a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him at all. Speculation about a full teardown has quieted in recent weeks. Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, both of whom have no-trade clauses, are unlikely to be dealt after expressing their preference to stick around. The Cards are expected to entertain trade possibilities on Nolan Arenado. Beyond that, they could run things back with most of last year’s roster. Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, Andrew Kittredge and Lance Lynn were their free agents of note.

Perhaps the Cardinals feel they can hang in the NL Central mix if they get a few internal improvements. There’s still a decent amount of talent on a roster that finished above .500 at 83-79 this year. Winning the division would be a long shot unless they’re active in free agency, but they seem to be willing to at least see how things play out in the season’s first couple months.

The Cardinals’ Trio Of Bullpen Trade Candidates

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The Cardinals’ direction is one of the key storylines of the offseason. The franchise has made clear they’re prioritizing the future while giving more playing time to young players in 2025. They’ve pushed back on initial chatter about a complete teardown, at least in part because a couple veterans with no-trade clauses prefer to see things through in St. Louis.

Even if they’re not in a complete rebuild, the Cardinals should gauge interest on players with limited windows of contractual control. That’s especially true in the bullpen. Their star closer will get the most calls from other teams, but St. Louis has a few relievers who could come up in talks. Projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

  • Ryan Helsley (eligible for arbitration through 2025, $6.9MM projected salary)

The Cards are down to one year of control over Helsley. If they’re not all-in for 2025, he should move either this winter or at next summer’s deadline. An offseason deal would give an acquiring team a few extra months of Helsley’s services and allow them to consider a qualifying offer when he hits free agency.

Katie Woo of the Athletic wrote last week that the Cardinals were already receiving quite a bit of interest. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested the Cards may need to be “overwhelmed” to deal the righty, but they should be able to weigh multiple compelling offers.

Helsley is among the best few relievers in MLB. He’s coming off three straight fantastic seasons. Helsley broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

Helsley has the kind of overpowering arsenal teams want in the late innings. His four-seam fastball sits above 99 MPH. Opponents had a surprising amount of success against that heater this year, but the ability to reach back for triple digit heaters makes it tough for hitters to adjust to his wipeout slider. Opponents whiffed on more than half their swings against the Helsley slider in 2024. He got swinging strikes at a 17.3% clip overall, a top 15 mark among relievers with at least 20 innings.

Alongside Devin Williams, Helsley is one of this winter’s top two bullpen trade candidates. He’d fit for any contender. Teams that already have a closer could push him into the eighth inning. Clubs like the Phillies, Rangers and Red Sox have seen their closers hit free agency. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Royals and Diamondbacks are other potential suitors.

  • JoJo Romero (eligible for arbitration through 2026, $1.9MM projected salary)

Romero has had a nice two-plus year run at Busch Stadium. Acquired from the Phillies at the 2022 deadline for utility player Edmundo Sosa, Romero has emerged as skipper Oli Marmol’s top lefty reliever. He has posted consecutive seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, turning in a career-best 3.36 mark through 59 innings this year.

There are some concerns. After striking out 28.6% of batters faced in 2023, he posted a middling 21% strikeout rate this year. Romero had a much more difficult time missing bats within the zone in 2024. That’s an issue for a pitcher who has never excelled at getting batters to chase off the plate. Romero has intriguing stuff, pairing a 94 MPH sinker with a slider and changeup. The breaking ball is by far his best offering and served as the putaway pitch for 40 of his 51 strikeouts this year.

As one might expect given that profile, Romero has been much better against same-handed hitters. Lefties have a .172/.267/.270 slash against him in his career, while right-handed hitters have teed off at a .280/.337/.472 clip. His 2024 platoon splits are just as extreme. Romero might be best suited for a situational role, but perhaps another team feels there’s a tweak they can make to get better production against righty hitters. While Romero has increased the usage on his slider in every season since 2021, he still only used it about a third of the time this year.

Romero finished the year on the injured list due to forearm inflammation. The Cardinals announced that he isn’t expected to require surgery and should have a normal offseason. Assuming that’s the case, he should attract interest.

John King (eligible for arbitration through 2027, $1.5MM projected salary)

The 30-year-old King isn’t as well known as Helsley or Romero, but he’s coming off a nice season. The southpaw turned in a 2.85 ERA through a career-high 60 innings spanning 56 appearances. King is a pure ground-ball specialist. He kept the ball on the ground at a massive 61.7% rate this year and has a career rate just north of 62%. Among the 160 relievers who threw at least 50 innings, only three (Tim Hill, Clay Holmes and Yennier Cano) had a higher grounder percentage.

King doesn’t miss bats, but he’s a situational lefty who should appeal to teams looking to deepen their middle relief group. (The Yankees make for a speculative fit considering New York’s love of relievers with plus grounder rates.) King is cheaply controllable for another three seasons and has held left-handed batters to a .250/.300/.320 slash over 308 career plate appearances. While the Cardinals aren’t under any contractual pressure to deal him, this isn’t the type of player that St. Louis would refuse to entertain in trade talks. If the Cards could pull a mid-level prospect or two, King could be on the move.

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The Cards have two other bullpen arms who’d attract interest, though they’re less likely to move. Rule 5 pick Ryan Fernandez had a strong rookie season. With five more years of team control, St. Louis probably prefers to hold him in a leverage role. Former top prospect Matthew Liberatore looks to have found a home in relief. He’s also still controllable for five seasons. The Cardinals aren’t likely to find an offer that pushes them to move the 25-year-old southpaw this early in his career.

Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

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The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Orioles Could Pursue Closing Help At Deadline

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The Orioles lead the American League with a 26-13 record, putting them half a game above the Yankees at the top of the AL East. Baltimore again looks like one of the best teams in the league and is trending towards buying at the deadline.

One area that could be a priority this summer: fortifying the back of the bullpen. Baltimore lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery last fall. They signed Craig Kimbrel — their only major league free agent pickup of the winter — to a $13MM deal to solidify the ninth inning. That hasn’t worked out quite the way the front office envisioned. Kimbrel has run into recent struggles that put his status as closer into question.

Baltimore used Kimbrel in the seventh inning in last Friday’s win over the Diamondbacks. Manager Brandon Hyde was noncommittal after that game about whether that signified a permanent role change for the nine-time All-Star. The O’s haven’t had a save situation since then, though they used Yennier Cano in the top of the ninth in a tied game (a situation in which a team typically calls on its closer) on Saturday. Kimbrel threw a scoreless 11th inning in that contest and got the win when the Orioles walked off in the bottom half.

There are more than two months for Kimbrel to pitch his way back into the ninth inning before the deadline. Still, the situation is flexible enough that the Orioles could consider alternatives if the veteran’s performance remains uneven. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend the O’s will monitor the status of established closers like Jordan Romano, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Pressly.

All three players are theoretical deadline trade possibilities, although they’re each on teams that entered the season expecting to contend. The Blue Jays are four games under .500 and sit last in the AL East. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NL Central with a 16-24 record. At 15-25, the Astros have an even worse mark, though they’re at least ahead of the Angels in their division.

None of those clubs are going to start moving veteran players anytime soon. Houston GM Dana Brown recently shot down the possibility of selling in any capacity, although it seems likely the team would reconsider that approach if they remain well below .500 in July. All three are veteran-laden teams that surely won’t pivot to selling unless it’s clear they don’t have a path back to competing this year, though.

Romano, 31, has operated as Toronto’s closer for the last three seasons. He’s a two-time All-Star who has saved 36 games in consecutive years. Romano hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs per nine in any of the past three seasons. He opened this year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He was reinstated in mid-April and has worked at his typical velocity (96.5 MPH fastball, 86.4 MPH slider). Romano is playing on a $7.75MM salary and is under arbitration control for one more season.

Helsley is also arbitration controlled through 2025. He’s making $3.8MM this year for the Cardinals. The 29-year-old has been one of the game’s most effective relievers on a rate basis going back to 2022. Helsley owns a 1.65 ERA with a massive 36.5% strikeout rate in 120 1/3 innings over the past two-plus seasons. The power righty pairs a fastball that averages more than 99 MPH with an upper-80s slider. After missing a good chunk of the 2023 campaign to a forearm strain, Helsley has been healthy this season. He has allowed just three earned runs with 21 strikeouts and two walks over 19 innings.

Things have been more rocky for Pressly, who has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) in his first 14 1/3 frames. The 35-year-old righty has managed 22 strikeouts with six free passes, though, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than half the time an opponent makes contact. Those secondary marks and Pressly’s career track record should lead to plenty of interest if the Astros get to a point where they’d seriously consider moving him at the deadline. Pressly has worked in a setup capacity to Josh Hader this year; he saved more than 30 games in each of the last two seasons.

From a financial perspective, Pressly would be a costlier add than either Romano or Helsley. He’s playing on a $14MM salary and has a matching option for 2025 that would vest if he appears in 50 games this season. He’s at 16 appearances already and looks well on track to triggering that option barring a notable injury.

Cardinals Activate Ryan Helsley, Transfer Brendan Donovan To 60-Day IL

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The Cardinals have activated right-hander Ryan Helsley from the 60-day injured list, the team announced this afternoon. In a corresponding move, utility player Brendan Donovan was transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL.

Helsley had been out with a forearm strain since mid-June, and he was transferred to the 60-day IL in late July. The former All-Star will be eased back into the bullpen, and he is not expected to supplant JoJo Romero as the Cardinals’ closer – at least not yet. According to John Denton of MLB.com, Helsley could return on a “regimented plan,” meaning he would not be available on a daily basis. However, manager Oliver Marmol said that he will still get opportunities in “leverage” spots.

The 29-year-old reliever will be eligible for his second year of salary arbitration this winter, so he will look to make a good impression over the final month of the season. He’s making $2.15MM this year.

Donovan underwent season-ending arm surgery in August, so the Cardinals could have transferred him to the 60-day IL at any point over the past month. The transfer does not change his timeline for return. As Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reported last month, Donovan is expected to be ready ahead of spring training.

Prior to his injury, the 26-year-old was in the midst of an excellent sophomore season. In 95 games, he hit .284 with 11 home runs and a 119 wRC+, while splitting his time between all four infield positions, the outfield corners, and designated hitter.

Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield

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The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.

Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.

Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.

That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”

Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.

While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.

Cardinals, Jordan Hicks Discussing Extension

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The Cardinals are exploring a multi-year contract extension with closer Jordan Hicks, reports Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo suggests there’s a good chance a deal can be finalized within the next day. An impending free agent, the hard-throwing righty profiles as one of the top bullpen trade candidates this summer. Obviously, an extension in advance of next Tuesday’s trade deadline would take him off the market.

Hicks, 27 in September, is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. He owns a 3.67 ERA across 41 2/3 innings in 40 appearances. He’s striking hitters out at a personal-best 31.2% rate while inducing grounders on a huge 58.2% of batted balls. Hicks and Twins’ star Jhoan Durán are the only relievers (minimum 30 innings) with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a ground-ball rate exceeding 55%.

That outlier combination of whiffs and grounders is built on velocity almost unmatched around the league. Hicks averages an eye-popping 100.5 MPH on the sinker that serves as his go-to offering. Only Durán and Aroldis Chapman throw harder.

Hicks hasn’t found the same level of success that Durán and Chapman have managed at their best, however. The St. Louis hurler has allowed just under four earned runs per nine innings over 219 1/3 career frames. That’s mostly a reflection of well below-average control. He’s walking just under 13% of opponents this season and has dished out free passes at a 13.2% clip for his career.

Various health concerns also undercut him for a while after a promising debut. Hicks combined for just 38 2/3 innings between 2019-21. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’19 season. Unlikely to return until the tail end of 2020 regardless, Hicks (who has Type 1 diabetes) opted out of playing that year because of COVID-19 concerns. He battled renewed elbow discomfort the next season and was limited to just 10 appearances. He missed a month between May and June last year because of a flexor issue in his forearm but has avoided the injured list this season.

Even with the health history and bouts of wildness, Hicks would be a sensible trade target for contenders seeking bullpen help. He’s a high-octane arm who has stepped back into a high-leverage role for St. Louis, picking up eight saves and six holds. The Cards clearly value him enough to consider keeping him around beyond this season, though it remains to be seen if a deal will get across the finish line. Woo unsurprisingly notes that the 45-56 club would very likely trade Hicks if they don’t reach an extension in the coming days.

To be clear, the dialogue with Hicks’ camp is not a sign that St. Louis is walking back its forthcoming sell off. Woo reiterates that the Cards plan to trade Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning. The Cardinals had not had any extension dialogue with Montgomery’s or Flaherty’s camps before the All-Star Break, Woo writes. Both starters are impending free agents.

Montgomery would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the Cards could at least ensure a compensatory draft choice if he departs as a free agent. They’re likely to receive a more compelling prospect package for one of the top starters available within the next few days, though. Flaherty is less likely to receive the QO (which Hicks also wouldn’t get), so the Cards likely wouldn’t get any compensation if those players were neither traded nor extended.

Additionally, Woo reports that the Cardinals are finding trade interest in each of Chris Stratton, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley. Stratton is an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent middle reliever. There’s less urgency to move the latter two arms, as both can stick around beyond this season. Gallegos is under contract for $5.5MM next year, while his deal has a $6.5MM club option for 2025. Helsley is eligible for arbitration through the ’25 season and making a modest $2.15MM this season.

It’s sensible for St. Louis to at least consider offers, although it’d be an odd time to move Helsley. Gallegos has had a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the past five seasons. He carries a 3.92 mark with slightly above-average strikeout and walk numbers in 41 1/3 innings this year.

Helsley, owner of a fastball that sits in the upper 90s, has a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout percentage in 25 frames on the season. He’s been down since June 12 with a forearm strain and was just transferred to the 60-day injured list yesterday, officially ruling him out into the second week of August. Players on the IL can still be traded, so a deal is possible. Still, it stands to reason other clubs will be wary of offering a prospect package commensurate with Helsley’s peak value at a time when there’s notable health uncertainty.

Cardinals Activate Adam Wainwright From 15-Day Injured List

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The Cardinals announced a set of roster moves, headlined by Adam Wainwright’s activation from the 15-day injured list.  St. Louis also selected the contract of left-hander Andrew Suarez, moved Ryan Helsley to the 60-day injured list, and optioned catcher Ivan Herrera and left-hander Zack Thompson to Triple-A.

Wainwright will take the ball to start tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks, as the veteran will try to get his 18th and final Major League season on track.  He last pitched on July 4, as shoulder inflammation and (as implied by Cardinals manager Olli Marmol) a broader range of nagging injuries sent Wainwright to the IL for the second time this season.  He also started the year on the IL due to a groin injury that delayed his 2023 debut until May 6.

It seems clear that Wainwright simply hasn’t been himself all year, as the 41-year-old has been hit hard to the tune of a 7.66 ERA over 11 starts and 51 2/3 innings.  His injuries are quite possibly to blame, or it could be that time has simply caught up to a pitcher who has defied convention by remaining an effective starter into his 40’s.  In the best-case scenario, this latest absence will act as a reset for Wainwright and allow him to finish his career on high note, albeit amidst a very disappointing Cardinals season.

Suarez signed a minor league deal with St. Louis during the offseason, and now looks set to make his first MLB appearance since 2020.  Breaking into the bigs with three seasons pitching for the Giants, Suarez posted a 4.66 ERA over 202 2/3 innings with San Francisco before heading overseas.  Suarez pitched well for the KBO League’s LG Twins in 2021, but a move from South Korea to Japan didn’t pan out — he had a 6.23 ERA over 21 2/3 innings with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball in 2022, pitching most of the year with the Swallows’ top minor league affiliate.

The move back to North America has served Suarez reasonably well, as he has a 4.08 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 8.9% walk rate in 64 innings with Triple-A Memphis.  Working mostly as a multi-inning reliever, Suarez has been stretched out as a starter in his last three outings, and could be paired with Wainwright in a piggyback combo while Wainwright gets fully ramped up.  Since several Cardinals starters are trade candidates heading into the deadline, Suarez might get an opportunity should one or more holes in the rotation open up.

Helsley’s 15-day IL stint began on June 10, and he was expected to miss at least a few more weeks anyway since he only recently started throwing bullpen sessions.  The reliever is recovering from a forearm strain, and told MLB.com and other reporters that he was taking a more cautious approach to his recovery after trying “to rush back too quick” from a similar injury in 2018.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

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The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

Cardinals Place Ryan Helsley On Injured List

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The Cardinals announced Monday that they’ve placed right-handed reliever Ryan Helsley on the 15-day injured list due a strained right forearm. Right-hander Jake Woodford has been recalled from Triple-A Memphis in his place. Helsley’s placement on the injured list is retroactive to June 10.

Helsley hasn’t pitched in a game since the middle of last week, despite the Cardinals playing in a pair of close games since then. Giovanny Gallegos received the team’s most recent save opportunity, last Friday, when the bullpen was at full strength following an off-day. Helsley’s dayslong absence from game activity now makes a bit more sense. He’ll be sidelined through at least the 25th of the month, though the team has yet to provide any real detail regarding his prognosis or potential recovery window.

Losing Helsley is a blow to an already reeling Cardinals club. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was in 2022, the 28-year-old righty currently boasts a 3.24 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate, a 43.1% grounder rate and seven saved in 25 innings out of the ’pen. Since the calendar flipped to May, Helsley was carrying a 2.40 ERA and a 20-to-6 K/BB ratio in 15 frames.

With Helsley sidelined for at least the foreseeable future, save opportunities will likely fall to the aforementioned Gallegos. The pair had been tied in saves prior to Gallegos notching his eighth of the season Friday when Helsley was unavailable. With Gallegos likely assuming full-time closing duties, setup work will fall to a combination of Andre Pallante, Jordan Hicks, Drew VerHagen and Genesis Cabrera. VerHagen’s seven holds currently lead the Cardinals, though he’s surrendered runs in three of his past four outings.

Woodford, 26, has pitched primarily out of the rotation for the Cards in 2023 but struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 30 innings. The right-hander’s 13% strikeout rate is among the lowest in MLB, but he has a strong 8% walk rate and 53.8% ground-ball rate as well. He’ll likely give the Cardinals some bullpen depth for the time being, as the rotation is still five-deep even after moving veteran Steven Matz to the bullpen. Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty and Matthew Liberatore figure to continue starting for St. Louis as the 27-39 Cardinals try to claw out of the NL Central cellar.

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