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The Upcoming Shortstop Class Looks Increasingly Bleak

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The top free agent storyline of each of the past two offseasons was the respective star-studded shortstop classes. In 2021-22, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez. Last winter, Correa was back on the market again, joined by Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

Next winter’s group was never going to rival that previous collection. The class in general is very light on star position player talent beyond Shohei Ohtani. It’s particularly barren up the middle of the diamond. It’s hard to imagine a more complete 180° turn than how things appear to be trending with the shortstop class, though. Virtually everyone involved is off to a very slow start.

The early-season performances from the impending free agents at the position:

Amed Rosario (28)*

While Rosario is not the superstar some evaluators had anticipated during his time in the Mets’ farm system, he’d been a solid regular for two seasons since landing in Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster. Rosario’s solid batting averages helped offset his very low walk tallies. He hit 25+ doubles with double-digit homers in both 2021-22, playing on a near everyday basis. His cumulative .282/.316/.406 batting line was almost exactly league average. Public metrics were mixed on Rosario’s defense but the Guardians have been content to keep him at shortstop despite plenty of upper minors infield talent. Only 27 and without a ton of market competition, he entered the year in position for a strong three or four-year contract.

That could still be the case but Rosario is doing himself no favors with his early performance. He’s sitting on a .217/.262/.300 showing through his first 130 plate appearances. He has just one homer and is striking out at a 29.2% clip that’d easily be the worst full-season mark of his career if it holds. After making contact on 81.3% of his swings last season, he’s putting the bat on the ball only 71.5% of the time this year. He’s also committed six errors in 255 1/3 innings after being charged with just 12 in more than 1200 frames last year. Rosario is still the top impending free agent shortstop by default but he’s struggling in all areas right now.

Javier Báez (31), can opt out of final four years and $98MM on his contract

Báez is hitting .256/.318/.376 through his first 130 plate appearances. That’s an improvement over the lackluster .238/.278/.393 line he managed during his first season in Detroit. His 16.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, pushing his overall offense near league average in spite of just three home runs in 32 games. Báez’s 2023 campaign has been fine but hardly overwhelming. It’s nowhere near what it’d take for him to beat the $98MM remaining on his existing contract. He’d need a torrid summer to put himself in position to test free agency.

Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández has been pushed into primary shortstop duty by the Red Sox’ various injuries. The early reviews from public defensive metrics aren’t favorable, with Statcast putting him at seven outs below average in 199 innings. Hernández is off to an equally slow start at the plate. He’s hitting .236/.295/.362 over 139 plate appearances on the heels of a .222/.291/.338 showing last year. He’s been a valuable super-utility option and everyday center fielder at times in his career, including a 20-homer campaign in 2021. The past year-plus hasn’t been especially impressive, though, and Hernández has yet to demonstrate he’s capable of handling shortstop regularly from a defensive standpoint.

Brandon Crawford (37)

The career-long Giant had a tough April on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .169/.244/.352 with a personal-high 28.2% strikeout rate in 21 games. His defensive marks through 173 2/3 innings are unanimously below-average. A right calf strain sent him to the injured list last week. Even if Crawford is willing to explore all opportunities next winter after 13 seasons in San Francisco, he’ll need much better production once he returns from the IL to find any interest as a starting shortstop.

Elvis Andrus (35)

Much of what applies to Crawford is also true for Andrus. He’s a 15-year MLB veteran with a couple All-Star appearances to his name but his offense has fallen off in recent seasons. Andrus was a well below-average hitter from 2018-21. He rebounded with a solid .249/.303/.404 showing last season but still didn’t generate much free agent attention. After settling for a $3MM deal with the White Sox, he’s hitting only .208/.291/.264 in 142 plate appearances this year. Andrus hit 17 homers last season but has just one through the first six weeks.

Nick Ahmed (34)

Another glove-first veteran, Ahmed is also off to a rough start at the plate. He carries a .227/.239/.318 line over 67 plate appearances. He’s hit only one home run and walked just once. Ahmed has always been a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist, but his career .235/.289/.380 slash is much more tenable than the production he’s managed thus far in 2023. He lost almost all of last season to shoulder surgery.

Gio Urshela (32)

Urshela is hitting plenty of singles to start his time in Orange County. His .303 batting average is impressive but is paired with just a .325 on-base percentage and .345 slugging mark. He’s walking at a career-low 3.3% clip and has only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a homer) in 123 plate appearances.

More concerning for teams looking to the shortstop market is Urshela’s lack of experience at the position. He’s been a third baseman for the majority of his career. Since landing with the Angels, he’s assumed a multi-positional infield role that has given him eight-plus starts at shortstop and both corner infield spots. Even if he starts hitting for more power, he’s better deployed as a versatile infielder who can moonlight at shortstop than an everyday solution there.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (28)

Kiner-Falefa lost his starting shortstop role with the Yankees towards the end of last season. He’s been kicked into a multi-positional capacity this year and hasn’t logged a single inning at the position in 2023. While Kiner-Falefa presumably could still handle shortstop if asked, he’s contributed nothing offensively in the early going. Through 72 plate appearances, he owns a .191/.225/.206 line.

Adalberto Mondesí (28)

Mondesí is young and has flashed tantalizing tools throughout his major league career. He’s also reached base at a meager .280 clip over 358 MLB games and battled various injuries. An April 2022 ACL tear cut that season short after just 15 games. The Red Sox nevertheless acquired him from the Royals over the offseason, but he’s yet to play a game with Boston. Mondesí opened the season on the 60-day injured list and won’t make his Sox debut until at least the end of this month. There’s a chance for him to play his way into some free agent interest. He’ll need an extended stretch of health and performance.

Players With Club Options

Both Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong can hit free agency if the White Sox and Cardinals decline respective 2024 club options. That seems likely in DeJong’s case but is reflective of the .196/.280/.351 line he managed between 2020-22. If he plays well enough to warrant significant free agent interest — he has been excellent in 11 games this season, to his credit — the Cardinals would exercise their $12.5MM option and keep him off the market anyhow.

The White Sox hold a $14MM option on Anderson’s services. That looks as if it’ll be a no-brainer for Chicago to keep him around (or exercise and make him available in trade). The only way Anderson gets to free agency is if his 2023 season is decimated by injury or an uncharacteristic performance drop-off, in which case he’d be a question mark as well.

Outlook

This was never going to be a great group. It’s comprised largely of glove-first veterans in their mid-30s. Players like Andrus, Ahmed, Crawford and José Iglesias — who’ll also hit free agency and has bounced around on minor league deals thus far in 2023 — don’t tend to be priority targets. That opened the door for the likes of Rosario, Báez and a potentially healthy Mondesí — younger players who have shown some offensive upside — to separate themselves from the pack in a way they wouldn’t have the last couple winters. No one has seized the mantle to this point. While there are still more than four months for someone to emerge, the early returns on the shortstop class aren’t promising.

*age for the 2024 season

White Sox Designate Jake Diekman, Franklin German; Select Alex Colomé, Sammy Peralta

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May 6: The White Sox have requested unconditional release waivers on Diekman following his DFA earlier in the week, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times relays.

May 2: The White Sox announced a massive series of roster moves today, including reinstating infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto from the injured list. Additionally, they selected the contracts of right-hander Alex Colomé, left-hander Sammy Peralta and outfielder Billy Hamilton, the latter move having already been reported earlier today. To make room for all of those players, righty Joe Kelly was placed on the paternity list, infielder/outfielder Romy González was placed on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder inflammation, outfielder Óscar Colás and infielder Lenyn Sosa were optioned to Triple-A while lefty Jake Diekman and righty Franklin German were designated for assignment. One spot on the 40-man roster was already open after A.J. Alexy was outrighted last week.

The White Sox have been off to a terrible start this year, going 8-21 as multiple key players have dealt with injuries. It was reported on the weekend that Anderson and Alberto would be coming back today, so those moves aren’t surprising. But it seems the club has decided to use their returns to springboard an incredible roster shakeup, with 11 players involved in today’s shuffling as they try to alter their trajectory.

Diekman, 36, has a lengthy track record of effectiveness in the big leagues but has fallen on hard times in recent years. At the end of 2021, he had a 3.73 ERA through 529 career appearances. His 12.7% walk rate was definitely on the high side but he also struck out 29% of batters faced and got grounders on 47.9% of balls in play. His ERA was a bit high at 4.23 with the Red Sox at the deadline last year when they flipped him to the Pale Hose for Reese McGuire, a player to be named later and cash. Unfortunately, he posted a 6.52 ERA with the Sox the rest of the way and has a 7.94 mark so far this year. He’s walked an incredible 22.4% of batters faced this season, exacerbating a longstanding issue and getting himself bumped off the roster.

The Sox will now have a week to trade Diekman or pass him through waivers but the interest around the league is unlikely to be widespread. Left-handed relief is always in demand but Diekman is making $3.5MM this year and has a $1MM buyout on a $4MM club option for 2024. Given his recent struggles, no team will want to take on that money, meaning he will likely pass through waivers unclaimed. Once he does so, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

Also designated for assignment is German, 25, who made his major league debut with the Red Sox last year but changed the color of his Sox via a February trade. Though he got five appearances in the big leagues last season, he spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting a 2.58 ERA with a 30.5% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate. Unfortunately, everything has gone in the wrong direction since the deal. He has an ERA of 7.15 in Triple-A so far this season, with his strikeout rate having dipped to 26.7% and his walks up to 15%.

One of those roster spots will go to Colomé, 34, who has a long résumé of work in the big leagues, including a previous stint with the White Sox. He has a 3.34 ERA over his career but has seen his results slip in the past couple of seasons. He had a tiny 0.81 ERA in the small sample of the shortened 2020 season but saw that jump to 4.15 and 5.74 in the subsequent campaigns. He signed a minor league deal with the Nationals this winter but didn’t make the club out of camp and opted out, jumping to the White Sox on another minors deal. He has a 2.25 ERA through his first 10 appearances in Triple-A this year, but with some good luck seemingly helping him out. He’s stranded 84.9% of baserunners despite an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate.

Also joining the club’s bullpen will be Peralta, which will be a bit of an early birthday present for him, as he turns 25 next week. An 18th round selection in the 2019 draft, he has climbed the minor league ladder in the years since. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A with a combined 3.77 ERA in 62 innings, striking out 29.2% of batters faced while walking 8.5%. He has a 3.52 ERA so far this year through 15 1/3 Triple-A innings.

In addition to all that 40-man roster shuffling, the club also optioned Colás. He will still be on the 40-man but it’s notable that he’s seemingly been pushed out of the club’s plans for the time being. He had no major league experience coming into this year but was a bit older and more experienced than a typical prospect since he had already played in the Cuban National Series and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

He was given the club’s everyday right field job this year but has hit just .211/.265/.276 through 25 games for a wRC+ of 51. He was just added to the club’s roster in March and has a full slate of options, which the club will now use to get him some more seasoning in the minors. He hit an incredible .314/.371/.524 in the minors last year, going from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, but only seven of his 117 games were at the highest level. He’ll now head back to Charlotte to work his way back to the majors. This could have ramifications for his service time, since he was previously on pace to get a full year in 2023 but now will end up shy of that once he spends 20 days in the minors, which would push back his free agency and perhaps his arbitration as well.

Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. would normally be in left and center field, respectively, but the latter has been dealing with a minor injury of late. With Colás now optioned out, right field could be shared by some mix of Eloy Jiménez, Gavin Sheets and Adam Haseley, with Hamilton perhaps entering the mix as well.

White Sox To Select Billy Hamilton

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The White Sox are set to select the contract of veteran outfielder Billy Hamilton, reports Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. He had an opt-out clause in his minor league deal, so he’ll be called up in order to prevent him from pursuing new opportunities in free agency. The Sox are also preparing to activate infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto from the 10-day injured list. A slate of corresponding moves will be forthcoming, though a 40-man roster move isn’t necessary for Hamilton. The Sox have an open spot after outrighting pitcher A.J. Alexy late last week.

Hamilton, 32, spent the 2021 season with the White Sox, hitting .220/.242/.378 in 135 trips to the plate. That small sample of work at the plate was spread over the life of 71 games, reflecting Hamilton’s usage as a frequent pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. That’s the role the former top prospect has settled into since departing Cincinnati, where he was the starting center fielder for a half decade but never managed to develop enough bat to match his elite speed and defensive aptitude. He’s begun the 2023 season with a .188/.328/.271 slash in 59 Triple-A plate appearances.

Over the past four years, Hamilton has logged close to a full season’s worth of plate appearances (547) but mustered only a tepid .206/.263/.289 batting line with a 28% strikeout rate. He’s still swiped 47 bags in that time despite the infrequency with which he reaches base. Defensive metrics have long touted his glove in center field; in 6766 career innings he’s been credited with 73 Defensive Runs Saved, a 57.2 Ultimate Zone Rating and 58 Outs Above Average.

As a team, the White Sox rank 26th in the Majors with -12 DRS and 21st with -4 OAA. Unlike last season, the outfield hasn’t been a major culprit, thanks to the presence of a healthy Luis Robert Jr., the newly signed Andrew Benintendi. Prospect Oscar Colas has been the primary option in right field and graded out less successfully, however, and his bat hasn’t produced anywhere close to the levels hoped yet (.211/.265/.276 in 84 plate appearances).

Van Schouwen adds that outfielder Adam Haseley is expected to remain with the club, so it’s possible the Sox either have an injury in the outfield or are planning to give Colas some additional development time in Triple-A after a rough start to his season. However it plays out, Hamilton will give them a top-tier defender and elite speed off the bench for as long as he’s with the team.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

—–

There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Mahle, Skubal

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The White Sox are set to get some much needed reinforcements early this week, as manager Pedro Grifol tells reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that both shortstop Tim Anderson and infielder Hanser Alberto are expected to return from the injured list on Tuesday.

That’s great news for the club, as the White Sox have begun their 2023 campaign with a worrisome 7-21 record that places them tied for last in the AL Central, nine games back of the division-leading Twins. A two time All Star who won the batting title in 2019, Anderson is one of the club’s marquee players. From 2019 to 2021 Anderson posted 11.6 fWAR in 295 games, a pace of nearly 6.4 fWAR per 162 games, thanks to solid defense at shortstop paired with a .322/.349/.495 slash line that was good for a 126 wRC+. That being said, Anderson missed three months of action in 2022 due to multiple injuries and didn’t reach those same standards when on the field, posting just a 110 wRC+ in 79 games along with a .093 ISO that was far below the .173 he managed during his peak years.

Even after a relative down season last year, however, Anderson figures to be one of the club’s best players this season, and any hope of a turnaround for the White Sox after this brutal start to the 2023 campaign likely rests in large part on his shoulders. In coming off the IL, he’ll be joined by Alberto, who figures to join Chicago’s bench mix alongside Romy Gonzalez, Lenyn Sosa, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Haseley. Despite a career wRC+ of just 77, Alberto is in his eighth year in the majors thanks to his versatility, which has allowed him to play all over the diamond except for behind the plate and in center field, and his penchant for avoiding strikeouts, as the 30-year-old veteran has punched out in just 12.2% of his 1,406 plate appearances in his career to this point.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Twins right-hander Tyler Mahle underwent an MRI on his arm after he was diagnosed with an elbow impingement earlier this week. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, that the team will have more details soon but that Mahle is expected to miss his next start at the very least. It’s not currently known if an injured list stint will be necessary for Mahle, who has a 3.16 ERA in five starts so far in 2023. The Twins have a variety of options for a spot start on the 40-man roster if necessary, including Simeon Woods-Richardson, Cole Sands, Louie Varland and Brent Headrick.
  • Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who underwent flexor surgery last August, threw off a mound for the first time since his surgery yesterday, as noted by MLive’s Evan Woodberry. Everything went well during the bullpen, during which Skubal threw 15 fastballs. Skubal doesn’t figure to return from injury any time soon, but the positive update is nonetheless great news for the Tigers, who also lost fellow youngsters Casey Mize and Matt Manning before the season began. 2022 was something of a breakout season for Skubal, as the young lefty posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work.

White Sox Notes: Anderson, Alberto, Crochet, Hendriks, Moncada

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The White Sox provided reporters with some updates on various injured players and their paths to rejoining the club, with James Fegan of The Athletic among those to relay the information (Twitter links). The ones closest to return are infielders Tim Anderson and Hanser Alberto, as they will be starting rehab assignments with Triple-A Charlotte tomorrow.

Anderson, 30 in June, has been on the injured list since April 11 due to a knee sprain. He was initially estimated to miss between two and four weeks, so it’s still possible for him to come back in that time frame. One of the club’s better players, his absence has corresponded with a dreadful downward slide in the standings. The Sox were 5-6 when he hit the shelf but have gone just 2-12 since, now sporting a record of 7-18.

The club is obviously better when Anderson is a part of it. Dating back to the start of 2019, he has 51 home runs and 58 stolen bases. His .317/.346/.471 batting line in that time amounts to a wRC+ of 122. Any club would be worse off when subtracting that kind of production, but his replacements have fared quite poorly. With him out of action, Elvis Andrus has become the everyday shortstop, but he’s hitting just .195/.260/.230 on the year for a wRC+ of 37. The second base position, which was previously covered by Andrus, has been mostly split between Romy González and Lenyn Sosa in that time. González is currently hitting .129/.129/.129 for a wRC+ of -39 while Sosa’s line is .122/.143/.220, -8 wRC+.

The tremendous drop-off from Anderson’s typical production to those numbers has surely played a role in the club’s recent struggles, making his imminent return fantastic news for the club. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate this summer if they fail to return to contention, given he’s in the final guaranteed season of his contract. However, the club has an affordable $14MM option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout.

There’s also good news in the return of Albero, on the IL with a quad strain, though he’s more of a role player. His career batting line of .271/.293/.380 translates to a wRC+ of 77, which isn’t terribly exciting but would still mean the club would have options to turn to when others are struggling.

Just slightly behind those two is left-hander Garrett Crochet, who missed all of last year due to undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He’s getting a check-up in Chicago but would be approved for his own rehab assignment if everything looks good there. The southpaw has a career 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out 29% of batters faced against a 10.7% walk rate. Getting him back in the bullpen would surely give the club a nice boost back there.

Another boost for the bullpen could be coming as right-hander Liam Hendriks, who has missed all of this season so far while undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, though he recently shared the good news that he’s been declared cancer free. He’s just slightly behind Crochet, as he will report to Chicago for his own pre-rehab checkup next week. He’s become one of the most dominant relievers in baseball in recent years, racking up 119 saves in the previous four seasons with a 2.26 ERA and 38.8% strikeout rate in that time.

While it’s great that those four players are making progress towards their respective returns, there’s one bit of news that’s less encouraging, per Fegan. Third baseman Yoán Moncada, who was been on the injured list for about two weeks due to back tightness, has been diagnosed with a protruding disc that is touching a nerve and causing pain in his glutes. While the issue is supposedly improving, Moncada still won’t be starting a rehab assignment during the current eight-game homestand that begins tonight. General manager Rick Hahn said that these issues don’t require offseason surgery about 80% of the time.

That’s surely not ideal information since Moncada’s IL placement originally seemed to be fairly precautionary. There was a period of a few days where it seemed he and the club were hoping to avoid an IL stint altogether but it’s now clearly more serious than initially thought. More updates will surely be forthcoming but it doesn’t seem like he’s close to a return and future surgery isn’t completely off the table.

Moncada has been fairly hot-and-cold in his career but was on a heater this year before the injury popped up, hitting .308/.325/.564 through his first nine games. Thankfully, his absence hasn’t created as much of a hole in the lineup as Anderson’s has, as Jake Burger has filled in with a .213/.309/.596 showing. Still, it’s a discouraging update on a key member of the core for a club that was held back by significant injuries last year and has been battling them again this year. His contract runs through 2024 with a $25MM option for 2025 that has a $5MM buyout.

White Sox Place Tim Anderson On Injured List

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The White Sox announced Tuesday that shortstop Tim Anderson has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a sprain in his left knee. He’s expected to miss between two and four weeks of action, per the team. Infielder Lenyn Sosa is up from Triple-A Charlotte to take Anderson’s spot on the active roster.

Anderson appeared to suffer the injury during yesterday’s game against the Twins, when he attempted to corral an errant throw from Hanser Alberto in a poorly executed rundown between second and third base (video link). He originally remained in the game and finished out the inning, but Anderson was later lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The 29-year-old Anderson is out to a nice start, batting .298/.327/.404 and a perfect 5-for-5 showing in stolen bases to begin his 2023 campaign. His injury will likely slide Elvis Andrus over to shortstop or possibly open the door for Sosa to take some reps at the position. If it’s indeed Andrus taking the reins at short, as he did in 2022 when Anderson was injured, then second base reps will fall to a combination of Sosa, Alberto and Romy Gonzalez.

Any absence is notable for Anderson, who’s steadily been one of the best-hitting shortstops in the game for the past four years. Dating back to 2019, Anderson has posted at least a .301 batting average, .338 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage in every season. He’s a collective .317/.346/.471 hitter in just shy of 1700 plate appearances dating back to 2019, and his 122 wRC+ in that time (indicating he’s been 22% better than an average hitter after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment) trails only six other shortstops: Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Bo Bichette and Corey Seager.

Injuries have regularly hampered the White Sox over the past several seasons, and Anderson now becomes the second key member of the lineup on the injured list, joining slugger Eloy Jimenez, who’s expected to be sidelined into late April with a low-grade hamstring strain. The Sox are also currently missing relievers Liam Hendriks, Garrett Crochet, Joe Kelly and Matt Foster.

The Sox made the easy call to pick up a $12.5MM option on Anderson at the end of the 2023 season, and they’ll have a $14MM option or $1MM buyout over his 2024 campaign as well. Given Anderson’s overall track record, it’s hard to imagine Sox buying him out. The presence of that option at least makes it worth keeping a close eye on how Anderson recovers from this issue, but a one-year deal at that rate remains a relative bargain for a player of his caliber, so long as he’s healthy.

Tim Anderson Hoping For Extension Talks With White Sox

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White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson is hoping for a healthier season after a torn tendon in his left middle finger ended his 2022 campaign at the beginning of August. Now healthy and back in camp, the two-time All-Star also expressed a desire to sort out his long-term contractual status.

Speaking with Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Anderson noted he “kind of (wants) to know where (his) feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is.” The former batting champion said he’s “so comfortable” in Chicago and hopeful of getting another deal done as quickly as possibly. “I have a lot of things that are going on with kids and just family. Being comfortable is huge for me,” he told Merkin. “No, I’m not promoting ‘pay me.’ It’s just that’s what’s really going on. Everybody knows I want to be here. It’s no secret.”

Whether the organization has a similar level of urgency isn’t known. Chicago is not facing Anderson’s imminent departure. The sides have already worked out one long-term deal, guaranteeing him $25MM back in March 2017 at a time when he had less than one year of major league service. He’s under contract for $12.5MM for the upcoming season and has a $14MM club option (or a $1MM buyout) for the 2024 campaign. It’d take a disastrous season for the club to consider the buyout, as the net $13MM decision is well below Anderson’s present open market value.

With Anderson far more established and much closer to free agency than he was at the time of his first extension, any new deal would be at a completely different level financially. Anderson told Merkin he’s not interested in signing a below-market pact to ensure an agreement gets done. “No discounts. That’s not to … put anything out there that might seem negative or think I want the most money. I just want to be treated fair and want both ends to be happy like we did last time, whichever way it goes,” he said. “This has been home. This is all I know. I would be disappointed if that came to an end. But at the end of the day, I understand the process.”

If he were to simply play out his current deal (assuming the ’24 option is exercised), Anderson would first reach free agency in advance of his age-31 season. That’s two years older than Trevor Story and Javier Báez were when signing their free agent deals over the 2021-22 offseason and two years older than Dansby Swanson was this winter. Anderson would be the same age as Marcus Semien was two offseasons back.

Each of those players secured deals of six-plus years with guarantees in the $140MM to $180MM range. Anderson isn’t the same style of hitter as those other players, hitting for a little less power but more consistently running excellent batting averages than each. He’s been similarly effective overall though.

Since the start of the 2019 season, Anderson owns a .318/.347/.473 line in over 1600 plate appearances. His 123 wRC+ indicates that production checks in 23 percentage points above that of the league average batter. His 2022 campaign was a little down relative to his previous three seasons, with a .301/.339/.395 line before his season-ending hand injury. Nevertheless, the broader track record at the dish is in line with those of Semien, Story and Báez and a little above Swanson’s. Semien, Story and Báez each had a wRC+ between 113 and 119 over the four-year stretch preceding their free agent deals, while Swanson had a cumulative 104 mark but had posted his three best seasons leading up to free agency.

Anderson is perhaps not the same caliber of defender as Báez or Swanson, though he typically rates as a slightly above-average shortstop by public metrics like DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Story and Semien each came with questions about whether they were better suited for second base in the relatively near future. There aren’t expected to be those same concerns with Anderson.

Those comparisons lend a rough idea to the kind of range Anderson and his reps could target in free agency. There’s additional risk with Anderson considering he’s still two years from the open market, and the ChiSox may be reluctant to offer true market value prices to buy out his mid-30’s this far in advance. That said, any extension would require the largest investment in franchise history by a wide margin. The White Sox have never guaranteed above $75MM to an individual player — on their five-year deal with Andrew Benintendi this winter — and Anderson could reasonably look to more than double that amount.

If the Sox don’t get an extension done this spring, there’s at least some chance Anderson’s future with the organization could come into doubt by the middle of the season. Chicago showed no interest in trading him this offseason, an unsurprising stance for a club counting on a return to contention after an injury-marred year that culminated in an average showing. If they struggle early in the upcoming season and fall out of the playoff mix, the organization could have to consider larger-scale changes as the deadline nears. The Sox have arguably the game’s worst farm system and key players like Anderson, Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are all within two years of free agency. Another non-competitive season could lead the front office to consider a reboot during the summer.

Chicago is certainly hoping it doesn’t come to that, either because a long-term deal for Anderson takes a trade firmly off the table or the club is in strong enough position to buy at the deadline. The Sox have a decent amount of payroll flexibility past the 2024 campaign, with only Benintendi ($16.5MM) and Luis Robert ($15MM) under guaranteed deals. Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet will be deep into their arbitration seasons by then, however, and the organization will have to retain or replace Giolito, Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez. There’s opportunity but a decent number of decisions facing general manager Rick Hahn and his staff as things play out.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

White Sox Not Planning To Trade Tim Anderson

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The White Sox have told interested teams they have no plans to trade shortstop Tim Anderson this offseason, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The 29-year-old will be back for an eighth season on Chicago’s south side.

It’d have been more surprising if the Sox were listening to offers on Anderson, who has emerged as a catalyst at the top of the lineup. He’s been selected to the All-Star Game in each of the past two seasons, and he finished seventh in AL MVP balloting during the abbreviated 2020 campaign. The righty-hitting infielder has hit above .300 four years running, posting above-average offensive marks overall.

Despite the second consecutive All-Star nomination, Anderson’s actually coming off a relative down season. He hit .301 but posted more pedestrian marks in on-base percentage (.339) and slugging (.395). His six home runs proved a career low, due in large part to a late-season injury that cut his year short. Anderson missed the season’s final couple months after suffering a tendon injury in his left middle finger, an issue that required surgery.

Still, there’s little question he’d have found significant appeal on the trade market. There’s no expectation the injury will affect him next season, and he’s playing on an eminently affordable contract. The Sox exercised a $12.5MM option on his services for 2023, and his contract also contains a $14MM club option for 2024. Barring injury or an unexpected down year, next year’s option should also be an easy call for the team to trigger.

Chicago had a disappointing season overall, finishing the 2022 campaign at 81-81 despite entering the season as AL Central favorites. They’re trying to rebound and make another run at the division, and it’s easy enough to understand why they wouldn’t subtract one of their top position players as part of that effort. At the same time, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn acknowledged at this week’s Winter Meetings the front office would have to be more open than they were previously to shaking up the roster after a down year (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). To that end, they’ve reportedly had some trade discussions about closer Liam Hendriks with other teams, although there’s no suggestion they’re actively shopping the All-Star righty.

Hahn has indicated on a few occasions the Sox are likelier to make any marquee additions via trade than free agency. James Fegan of the Athletic has previously reported they hope to open the season with a player payroll around $180MM. Roster Resource projects their payroll in the $179MM range at present, so the front office likely doesn’t have much breathing room at its disposal. Van Schouwen writes that the Sox are still seeking corner outfield and second base help, meaning they could potentially look to deal players on loftier salaries to free some spending room. Anderson apparently won’t be one of the players under consideration for such a deal though.

Teams seeking shortstop help but unwilling to pay top-of-the-market prices for Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson are left with few alternatives. Elvis Andrus is the clear next-best shortstop available in free agency, while the trade market doesn’t have many obvious candidates. Amed Rosario and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are among the players who could theoretically be available, but neither has been firmly linked to any trade rumors this offseason. Meanwhile, Anderson and Milwaukee star Willy Adames seem as if they’ll stay put despite some early-offseason speculation they might be made available.

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