Home Run Derby Field Finalized

The eight-man field is set for the 2021 Home Run Derby. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, Orioles first baseman Trey Mancini, Royals catcher Salvador Pérez, Athletics first baseman Matt Olson, Nationals outfielder Juan Soto and Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo will compete in the event.

Ohtani has been perhaps baseball’s biggest story in 2021. The two-way star has a league-best thirty-one home runs and looks like the early favorite to win the AL MVP award. Alonso, who won the most recent Derby in 2019, will be looking to defend his title. The right-handed slugger has popped fifteen homers this year. Story figures to be the fan favorite with All-Star festivities taking place in Denver. The 28-year-old has hit 11 longballs this season. It’ll be an emotional sight to see Mancini on such a big stage. He missed all of last season battling colon cancer but made it back this year and has popped fifteen homers.

Pérez has been the game’s most powerful catcher. He leads all backstops with twenty homers and he’ll get the starting nod behind the plate for the American League in the All-Star game. Olson has also hit twenty dingers this year and will represent the playoff-contending A’s in the All-Star game. Gallo, who’ll join Ohtani, Pérez and Olson on the AL All-Star team, has been on an absolute tear over the last month, bringing his season total in homers up to twenty-three. Soto only has ten home runs this season, but he’s been one of the game’s best hitters since reaching the majors as a 19-year-old in 2018.

The Home Run derby will take place at Denver’s Coors Field on Monday, July 12.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported Gallo’s inclusion.

Padres Remain “Particularly Interested” In Joey Gallo

If the Padres continue to scuffle offensively, they could turn to a familiar target from outside the organization: the Rangers’ Joey Gallo. The Padres are trying to weather a storm of injuries and cold bats, but while they wait for Austin Nola and Trent Grisham to return from the injured list, it’s easy to speculate about potential additions, and few would be as exciting as Gallo.

Remember, the Padres had interest in Gallo at last year’s trade deadline, but they balked at moving CJ Abrams or Luis Patino. That price may still be too high, but the Padres remain “particularly interested” in Gallo, writes the Athletic’s Dennis Lin. The trade market is still developing, however, and the Ranger’s aren’t likely to make Gallo a quick-strike target. Even with diminished power outputs the past two seasons – .197 ISO in 2020 and .181 ISO this season – Gallo would be one of the higher-end pieces available, should the Rangers make him so.

After all, even though his slugging percentage has fallen under .400 SLG the past two seasons, Gallo has begun to bounce back this year thanks to an above-average ability to get on base (18.7 percent walk rate). Through 241 plate appearances, he now has a 119 wRC+ with a batting line of .207/.365/.389. He has an improved .226 ISO/.435 SLG since May 15th.

For the Padres, Gallo’s ability to play all three outfield positions holds some value, mostly because of the injury concerns around their starting trio of Grisham, Tommy Pham, and Wil Myers. All three have spent time on the injured list this season. But it’s Gallo’s overall offensive ability that brings the most appeal for a team that has struggled to score runs of late. The Friars have just a 74 team wRC+ over the past two weeks, the third-lowest mark in the Majors in that time.

 

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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The Rangers’ Joey Gallo Decision

The Rangers are one of the league’s most obvious sellers this offseason. President of baseball operations Jon Daniels has been open about the organization’s intent to cut payroll and rework the roster in hopes of contending in 2022. They’ve put that into action already, trading Lance Lynn and Rafael Montero for longer-term assets.

Lynn was an obvious trade candidate, as he’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of next season. Montero is controllable for an additional year, but as a 30-year-old reliever on a team not expecting to immediately contend, he was a sensible player to move. A tougher question for Texas is how to proceed with Joey Gallo.

The 27-year-old Gallo is under control for the next two seasons. He’s projected for a salary in the $5-7MM range this winter and will be eligible for arbitration once more after that. If the Rangers truly believe they can field a contender in 2022, they could elect to proceed year-by-year through arbitration.

There’s a case to be made, though, Texas should approach the Gallo situation more proactively. That could mean him following Lynn and Montero out the door. Texas has made Gallo available to other teams, although it may not be the best time to try to work out a deal. After all, he struggled to a .181/.301/.378 line in 226 plate appearances this past season. An unsustainably low .240 BABIP no doubt played a role in that, but his struggles can’t all be chalked up to bad luck.

Gallo’s already high average launch angle increased by more than four degrees between 2019 and 2020. For many players, that’d be a positive development. Gallo, though, already had an extremely uphill swing path. Hitting the ball higher in the air last season didn’t do him any favors. Gallo’s batting average on airborne contact (fly balls and line drives) dropped from .556 in 2019 to .350 last season. His slugging output had an even more precipitous fall. Making matters worse, Gallo’s average exit velocity fell more than three miles per hour from where it had been in 2018-19.

2020 struggles notwithstanding, the Rangers presumably anticipate Gallo to rebound. In August, Texas manager Chris Woodward called the slugger “by far the best player on the field” in every game he plays. There was a degree of hyperbole in that statement, to be sure, but Woodward’s affinity for Gallo has plenty of merit. Between 2017-19, Gallo hit .217/.336/.533 (120 wRC+) with 103 home runs over 1406 plate appearances. That’s solidly above-average offensive production. And Gallo has consistently rated as a quality outfielder (especially in the corners) and baserunner. Even with one of the league’s highest strikeout rates, Gallo has shown flashes of stardom.

Daniels and newly-minted GM Chris Young have a tough decision with their franchise player coming off a career-worst year. It’s not an ideal time to look for a trade, although there’ll surely be teams that see his off year as an anomaly. Gallo’s young enough that Texas could decide to explore an extension, even with the team taking a step back in 2021. Finding a price point agreeable to both the club and the Boras Corporation client on the heels of a down season might be difficult, though.

So, what course of action should the Texas front office pursue this winter with the 2019 All-Star?

(poll link for app users)

How Should The Rangers Proceed With Joey Gallo This Offseason?

  • Trade him. 59% (6,733)
  • Keep him next season via arbitration. 25% (2,805)
  • Pursue a long-term extension. 16% (1,848)

Total votes: 11,386

 

AL Notes: Gallo, Rays, Angels

Rangers slugger Joey Gallo has been “available” since last summer’s trade deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes. It’s unknown what it would cost to pry Gallo out of Texas, though Rosenthal notes that he’s popular among teams that value some combination of home runs, walks, athleticism and tools. The 27-year-old Gallo had a terrible year at the plate during the shortened 2020 season, in which he hit .181/.301/.378 with 10 home runs in 226 plate appearances, but he did earn a Gold Glove for his work in right field. Gallo’s also not far removed from a premier showing at the plate in 2019, and he comes with two affordable years of team control.

Now the latest on two other American League teams…

  • The Rays are among the teams with interest in free-agent right-hander Ryne Stanek, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Stanek began his career with the Rays, who chose him 29th overall in the 2013 draft, and had his best seasons with the club. He was a regular opener with the Rays from 2018-19, during which he pitched to a 3.17 ERA/3.64 FIP and averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine across 122 innings, but has fallen off of late. Stanek had difficulty in Miami, which acquired him from the Rays before the 2019 trade deadline, and the Marlins non-tendered him as a result. However, the 29-year-old hasn’t had trouble garnering interest from other teams this winter.
  • Rays righty Brent Honeywell was given a fourth option because of the substantial amount of time he has missed on account of injuries, general manager Erik Neander told Topkin and other reporters. The 25-year-old Honeywell was once an elite pitching prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a professional inning since 2017 – which he divided between Double-A and Triple-A – because of health issues. Since then, Honeywell has undergone four elbow surgeries, most recently an arthroscopic procedure. The good news is that Honeywell seems as if he’ll return in 2021.
  • The Angels have made a couple of additions to new general manager Perry Minasian’s front office. The team’s hiring Brewers vice president/assistant to the GM Ray Montgomery and Dodgers international crosschecker Brian Parker, per reports from Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Jim Callis of MLB.com. It’s unclear which roles the two will take on as part of the Angels’ staff.
  • More on the Angels, who are unsurprisingly looking for help in their rotation. Manager Joe Maddon told MLB Network Radio on Friday that “we do need to attract probably two starting pitchers to come to us.” Maddon expects there to be an increase in six-man rotations throughout the league next year; if the Angels go that route – which is something Maddon expects to do (via Maria Torres of the LA Times) – it could benefit Shohei Ohtani, who’s returning from injury and who was part of a six-man staff in Japan before immigrating to the majors prior to the 2018 campaign. Ohtani, Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning should amass plenty of starts for the Angels in 2021, though the rest of their rotation doesn’t appear etched in stone.

Gold Glove Nominees Announced

The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

NL Pitcher

AL Catcher

NL Catcher

AL First Base

NL First Base

AL Second Base

NL Second Base

AL Third Base

NL Third Base

AL Shortstop

NL Shortstop

AL Left Field

NL Left Field

AL Centerfield

NL Centerfield

AL Right Field

NL Right Field

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

Additional Context On Padres’ Flurry Of Trades

The Padres were the most active buyer at the 2020 trade deadline — arguably of any trade deadline in recent history — reshaping their roster with additions of Mike Clevinger, Austin Nola, Trevor Rosenthal, Mitch Moreland and Jason Castro, among others. The dizzying sequence of additions hearkened back to the days when Matt Kemp labeled A.J. Preller a “rock star” GM during Preller’s frenetic first offseason on the job, but the biggest trades swung by the Padres over the weekend didn’t necessarily come together in straightforward fashion.

Preller, in fact, was informed Sunday evening that his Padres were “out” of the Clevinger bidding, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter). The Indians told the Padres that they were sitting on a better offer and likely to proceed in another direction. That call prompted the club to reconvene and alter its package, ultimately adding infield prospect Owen Miller and catcher Austin Hedges early Monday morning. Those pieces put San Diego’s offer over the top, it seems, as word of Clevinger’s trade to the Friars was out several hours before the 4pm ET deadline.

Hedges and Miller, the final two pieces of the Padres’ six-player package, added quite a bit more near-term value to the arrangement. Hedges is considered one of the best defensive catchers (if not the best) in the game and is controlled through the 2022 season. The 23-year-old Miller has yet to make his big league debut, but he slashed .290/.355/.430 in a full season at the Double-A level last year while playing three infield positions. He’s in Cleveland’s player pool now and could conceivably be an option this month. If not, he’ll certainly be in consideration for a call to the big leagues come 2021. With Cesar Hernandez playing on a one-year deal, it’s possible that Miller could be in the mix for regular playing time next season.

But the Clevinger blockbuster wasn’t the only Friars swap that required some persistent iterations. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters after trading Nola, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla to the Padres that he didn’t expect to trade Nola this summer (as opposed to Taijuan Walker, whom the M’s fully anticipated moving).

“They had called repeatedly on Austin Nola and we had repeatedly rebuffed that interest until the return just became too big for us to pass up in our minds,”  Dipoto said Monday (link via MLB.com’s Greg Johns).

The key element of the trade for the Mariners was getting both infielder Ty France and outfield prospect Taylor Trammell in the deal. Dipoto didn’t hide his affinity for either player, revealing that he’s contacted the Padres on France repeatedly over the past couple seasons and been similarly drawn to Trammell dating all the way back to the 2016 draft. “As many phone calls as A.J. made to me this last week about Austin Nola, I have made as many to him over the last couple of years regarding Ty France,” said Dipoto.

With Nola and Castro now on hand, the Padres have completely remade their catching tandem midseason, but changes could yet be coming. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (subscription required) that the club is contemplating a September promotion for 21-year-old Luis Campusano — a top-ranked catching prospect who was an in-demand piece himself at this year’s deadline. Per Lin, both the Indians and Rangers asked the Padres about Campusano in trade negotiations, but the Friars clearly weren’t inclined to include him in a deal. Cleveland initially sought Campusano and Luis Patino as centerpieces in the Clevinger deal, while the Rangers were interested in that pair as well as shortstop CJ Abrams when discussing Lance Lynn and Joey Gallo with the Padres.

The 21-year-old Campusano has yet to play above Class-A Advanced, but he tore through the pitcher-friendly California League last year, slashing .325/.396/.509 (148 wRC+). If the Padres do bring him up, they could rotate him, Nola and Castro through the catcher slot while maximizing Nola’s versatility with reps at any of first base, second base, third base or the outfield corners.

Suffice it to say, we could’ve seen any number of permutations of the Padres’ deluge of deals this past week. Such is the nature of a win-now team with a deep farm system. The club’s minor league system undoubtedly took a hit with this wave of trades, but San Diego also managed to hang onto the majority of its top-ranked prospects while clearly placing themselves in a better competitive position both now and into at least the 2022 season, after which Clevinger is scheduled to become a free agent.

Rangers Won’t Trade Lance Lynn, Joey Gallo

The Rangers moved a significant contributor in left-hander Mike Minor before Monday’s trade deadline, but a couple of other big names will stay put. Righty Lance Lynn and outfielder Joey Gallo aren’t going anywhere, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports.

The 33-year-old Lynn has been one of baseball’s top starters dating back to his debut season with the Rangers in 2019, and as someone who’s only under control through the 2021 campaign, he looked like a prime trade chip. Lynn surely drew interest from an array of teams, including the Dodgers, but the Rangers never found an offer to their liking. However, that doesn’t mean Lynn will don their uniform again next season. He’ll likely pop up in trade rumors again during the winter, as the Rangers figure to be coming off another non-playoff effort and Lynn will be set to earn a team-friendly $8MM in the last season of a three-year, $30MM contract that has worked out wonderfully for Texas.

Meanwhile, it always seemed like a long shot that the Rangers would part with Gallo, who’s just 26, one of the faces of their franchise and controllable via arbitration through 2022. Gallo hasn’t gotten off to a strong start this year, during which he has slashed .183/.336/.423 with seven home runs in 128 plate appearances, but he was one of the AL’s premier hitters in an injury-limited 2019 showing. It wouldn’t have made sense for the Rangers to sell low on him.

Latest On Lance Lynn Trade Talks

The Rangers have already shipped out starter Mike Minor to the A’s, so now all eyes are on righty Lance Lynn.  The 33-year-old righty sports a 3.33 ERA in 41 starts for the Rangers since they signed him prior to the 2019 season, and he’s under contract for just $8MM in 2021.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Rangers may be motivated to avoid repeating the mistake they made with Minor, holding him last summer when he was at peak value with control remaining.

  • The Braves, who picked up lefty Tommy Milone in a deal with the Orioles yesterday, have been in contact with the Rangers regarding Lynn within the last 48 hours, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
  • The Yankees have also been involved in Lynn’s market during that time, tweets Morosi.  Lynn’s resurgence began with his two-month stint with the Yankees back in 2018.  MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan notes that the Rangers “would love RHP Deivi Garcia from the Yankees but he is likely out of reach.”  On a similar note, Sherman hears the Yankees don’t have an appetite to move Garcia, to date.
  • The Padres “explored separate trades” with the Rangers for Lynn and outfielder Joey Gallo before acquiring Mike Clevinger from the Indians, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  I would speculate that with Clevinger tow, it’s (relatively) safe to assume the Padres are out on Lynn.  Similarly, the A’s were previously connected to Lynn but have since landed Minor.
  • Previous connections to Lynn have been made for the Twins, Blue Jays, and White Sox, so those teams may still be in play.  According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, the Jays had been linked to Minor before he was dealt to Oakland, and the Rangers “are intrigued by [the] Jays’ young catching.”

Rangers “Discussing” Joey Gallo In Trades

7:23PM: The Rays and Padres are two of the clubs with interest in Gallo, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

2:25PM: As speculation about ace Lance Lynn abounds, the Rangers are also floating another star in trade talks: Texas is “discussing” Joey Gallo in potential trades, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. As with Lynn, expect the asking price for Gallo to be quite high, so we’ll have to wait to see just how motivated Texas is to deal its slugging outfielder.

Gallo turned a corner last season, blossoming into more than merely a homer-happy strikeout machine. Make no mistake, the dingers and strikeouts were still there in abundance, but his offensive game took an overall step forward, with Gallo looking like a more well-rounded slugger. His batting average climbed to a respectable .253, OBP up to .389, and accordingly his OPS elevated into elite territory, finishing the year at .986. Granted, a hamate injury limited Gallo to just 70 games played, but there were plenty of indications that production of that caliber was the new normal for the 26-year-old.

Gallo has shown himself to be a solid defender, having played all three outfield positions in the past and settling into right field this year. He’s an all-around athlete, with speed and ample arm strength making him more than a one-dimensional slugger. Those things, along with his age and remaining team control—he’s got two years of controllability left, first eligible to reach free agency after the 2022 season—will lead the Rangers to demand a significant return for their best offensive player.

Alas, Gallo has stumbled out of the gates in 2020, managing an unspectacular .774 OPS, though there has been no shortage of homers, walks, and strikeouts. But if Gallo has struggled this year, the surrounding lineup hasn’t offered much help. Texas has scored the third-fewest runs in baseball, with only the Marlins and Cardinals (who’ve played just 24 games) trailing them. That’s led to a 12-20 record, leaving them with slim chances to crack even an expanded postseason bracket.

Interested teams will note that Gallo is represented by Scott Boras, whose clients don’t often go for extensions. Of course, the Rangers are consider that factor as well, and they’d be remiss not to listen to offers for a player who might not stick around for the next contending Rangers team. To be sure, there’s no pressure to pull the trigger on a deal right now, but Texas will have to weigh its confidence in working out an extension with Gallo if they intend to hang on to him.

There’s no word on specific teams that have inquired about Gallo, but one figures there’d be widespread interest in a controllable, athletic outfielder who brings value both at the plate and in the field.

Of course, trading Gallo would seemingly signify the Rangers’ intent to launch a full-scale rebuild, something they haven’t committed to over the last few years as they mire in a sort of baseball purgatory. They’ve struggled to build a cohesive position player group, with players like Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara displaying wild inconsistency interspersed with massive potential. Mazara, of course, is in Chicago while Odor has floundered this year. Texas is hampered by a hefty contract for shortstop Elvis Andrus, whose OPS has plummeted to just .494 on the season.

The Rangers fluttered around .500 with Gallo in the lineup last year, which surely informed their decision to spend the following winter strengthening the Major League roster, trading for Corey Kluber and inking contributors like Todd Frazier, Kyle Gibson, and Jordan Lyles. Evidently, those moves haven’t panned out, and it may be time for the Rangers to reverse course.

With Lynn and Gallo in their possession—arguably the best pitcher and position player on the trade market—the Rangers have the power to shape this year’s trade deadline, which is shaping up to be a seller’s market. Both Lynn and Gallo could be critical pieces for contending teams, the type of trade that pushes a contending team over the top. Right now, they look like the team to watch.

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