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Rafael Montero

Astros Interested In Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon

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The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. This morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of many arms on their radar.

Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, a Houston-area native.

Both pitchers have performed like #3 caliber starters this season. Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the White Sox.

It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters. He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong. Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet, but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings.

As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday. There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control.

Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.5 MPH. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year.

Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts. Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return.

Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation. Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success.

They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.

The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.

That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces. Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though.

One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon. Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256MM. Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257MM mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20MM above the $237MM base threshold. It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch.

To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.5MM deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.

Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June. He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work.

Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater. He’s playing on $11.5MM salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Astros To Re-Sign Rafael Montero

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November 17: Montero’s contract will see him earn $11.5MM in all three years, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.

November 12: Rafael Montero and the Astros are in agreement on a three-year, $34.5MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Montero is the third elite reliever to fall off the board early, after the Padres re-signed Robert Suarez and the Mets held on to Edwin Diaz.

It’s a remarkable deal considering Montero has amassed just 0.1 bWAR over his career and had a 6.39 ERA just in 2021, but speaks to how good he’s looked since landing in Houston, and the early value teams are placing on high-end relief pitching.

Montero, 32, tossed 68 1/3 innings out of Houston’s pen this year in addition to six innings thrown late last year after coming over from Seattle, posting a 2.18 ERA in that time with a 26.8% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. He’d posted an ugly 7.27 ERA (albeit with decent peripherals) in Seattle last year, before the Astros acquired him as part of the Kendall Graveman deal. In Houston, he’s leaned more heavily on his fastball, and cut back on his sinker and slider usage. Hitters have found it incredibly difficult to square up his pitches, and he gave up just three home runs all year (and one more in the playoffs) and ranked in the 91st percentile for average exit velocity.

It’s certainly worth nothing that this isn’t the first time Montero has had a bit of success, only to crash not long after. The Rangers inked him to a minor league deal in 2019 after four unsuccessful years with the Mets that concluded with Tommy John surgery prior to the ’18 campaign. He turned into a valuable member of the Rangers bullpen that year, throwing 29 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He regressed a bit in 2020, but the Rangers were still able to flip him to the Mariners for a couple of prospects – Andres Mesa and Jose Corniell – prior to the 2021 campaign, but things would unravel for him in Seattle.

While it’s easy to look at that 2019 season with the Rangers and draw similarities to his past season with the Astros in that it’s an isolated strong season amongst a wider portfolio of poor output, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he’s turned a corner for good. For instance, in 2019 his peripherals were far less impressive than his actual output, and it was over a much smaller sample size (29 innings against 74 1/3 in Houston). Ultimately though, dishing out any sort of multi-year free agency deal to relievers comes with a large degree of risk, and given how tough relievers’ future performance is to predict, there’s no guarantees Montero performs like he did in 2022 over the life of this deal.

This deal locks up a key contributor from their World Series winning team, but it’s curious to see a major deal like this done one day after the team moved on from their general manager. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus are running the day-to-day operations for the Astros after the departure of James Click, although Rome adds that that doesn’t necessarily mean those two were responsible for the Montero deal.

Houston’s projected payroll now sits at $164MM per RosterResource, about $15MM shy of their 2022 mark. There’s every chance they bring back Justin Verlander, while they could seek additions at center field, catcher and first base, so there’s a strong possibility their payroll comfortably eclipses the $179MM mark from 2022.

Their bullpen was one of the strengths of their championship roster this past season, and with the likes of Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Ryne Stanek, Hector Neris and the now-returning Montero it’s shaping up to be one of the best in baseball again.

It also bodes well for other top relievers on the market. Montero’s $34.5MM deal follows on from Suarez’ five-year, $46MM contract with the Padres and Diaz’s record-breaking five-year, $102MM deal with the Mets. On the whole, relievers are being paid handsomely to kick off free agency this year, and the agents of pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Kenley Jansen will surely be pointing teams to these deals as price points when going into negotiations.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

The Opener: World Series, Mets, Brewers

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. The World Series Sees Its Second No-Hitter

After watching Lance McCullers Jr. give up five home runs while Ranger Suarez shut the lineup out in Game 3, Astros fans were no doubt feeling a bit queasy headed into a Game 4 against Aaron Nola, one of the best pitchers in the NL. Just as they did in Game 1, however, the Astros lineup managed to get to Nolan, striking for five runs in the fifth inning. However, the Astros’ offense wasn’t the story of this game — Cristian Javier struck out nine over six shutout innings to combine with Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly for a no-hitter. It was the second no-hitter in World Series history (preceded by Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series), and just the third-ever postseason no-hitter (also at Citizens Bank Ballpark, Roy Halladay tossed a no-no in the 2010 NLDS). While there’s still plenty of baseball to be played this November, it’s worth noting that both Larsen’s Yankees and Halladay’s Phillies went on to win their respective series. For tonight’s pivotal Game 5, the Phillies will start Noah Syndergaard against Houston’s Justin Verlander.

2. The Mets Brace For Losses, Eye Additions In Free Agency

After a 101-win season that ended abruptly at the hands of the Padres in the Wild Card series, the Mets now face some significant free agent losses, and center fielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz are reportedly the free agents New York wishes to retain the most. Mets owner Steve Cohen is certainly unafraid of making a splash in free agency, and the team will have to devote some more resources to rebuilding it rotation, as three starters (Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker) are likely to hit free agency this offseason, and a fourth could join them if the Mets decline Carlos Carrasco’s club option. Few players with deGrom’s level of potential impact exist in the game, much less on the free agent market, but Verlander and Carlos Rodon are both arms who could take deGrom’s place alongside Scherzer at the top of the rotation in Queens. The likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon and Tyler Anderson represent possible mid-rotation replacements for Bassitt, while Walker’s quality back of the rotation production could be replaced by a variety of pitchers, including Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, or Sean Manaea.

3. Brewers Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration

In yesterday’s opener, we discussed the massive arbitration class the Rays have heading into 2023, with their 19 players being the most of any club. Milwaukee isn’t far behind with an 18-player class that is projected to receive $79.9MM, and thus the Brewers are set to approach their 2023 payroll even before making additions this offseason. While there are some non-tender candidates in the group, most of the significant money in Milwaukee’s arbitration class is tied up in productive players too valuable to just cut, so a trade of one of these more expensive names (i.e.Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames) could make some sense. Of course, then the Brewers face the new problem of finding adequate replacements for their production for a lower price. Whatever path he may choose, GM Matt Arnold’s first offseason at the helm of the Brewers’s front office will be one to follow.

Astros To Start Jose Urquidy In Game Three

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The latest updates from manager Dusty Baker on the Astros’ plans moving forward…

  • Jose Urquidy will get the start in game three over veteran Jake Odorizzi, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Urquidy has flashed star potential during his Houston tenure, including at times this season. He made 20 starts with a 3.62 ERA/4.14 FIP over 107 innings with a 21.3 percent strikeout rate, 4.5 percent walk rate, and 31.7 percent flyball rate. Urquidy beat the Red Sox back on May 31st, tossing six innings and yielding just one run on three hits while striking out nine.
  • Rafael Montero threw a bullpen session today. The Astros are holding out hope that Montero could be helpful in the World Series, should they survive the Red Sox, per ESPN’s Marly Rivera (via Twitter). Montero had a disastrous season with the Mariners, getting tagged with a 7.27 ERA over 43 1/3 innings, despite a 4.05 FIP. The Astros acquired him along with Kendall Graveman at the trade deadline. He made four scoreless appearances with the Astros before shoulder discomfort sent him to the injured list.

Astros Designate Robel Garcia For Assignment

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The Astros are designating infielder Robel García for assignment, relays Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Reliever Rafael Montero was also transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. The moves create a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster needed to reinstate Taylor Jones and Andre Scrubb from the injured list (Jones from the COVID-19 IL, Scrubb from the 60-day version). Both Jones and Scrubb were optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.

García has had one of the crazier career arcs of any player over the past few seasons. He spent a few years at the lowest levels of the Indians system but was released having topped out in Low-A. The Cubs spotted García playing professional ball in Italy a few years later and signed him to a minor league deal going into the 2019 season.

Assigned to Double-A, García mashed over the season’s first month before being bumped up to the minors’ top level. He popped 21 home runs in just 296 Triple-A plate appearances to earn his first big league call that July. The switch-hitting infielder hit another five homers in 80 trips to the plate at the big league level, but he also struck out 35 times.

Chicago designated García for assignment last July, and he spent the campaign at the Reds’ alternate training site after Cincinnati claimed him off waivers. He briefly landed with the Mets and Angels via waiver claim over the offseason and stuck with Houston after the Astros claimed him in February. He’s taken 117 plate appearances at the major league level this season, struggling to a .151/.216/.208 line with a huge 35.9% strikeout rate. The utilityman has had similar swing-and-miss issues in Triple-A, hitting .189/.321/.422 in 109 trips to the plate.

The Astros will now place García on outright or release waivers. His combination of power and ability to cover any position on the dirt has attracted the interest of a few teams around the league, although his continued strikeout problems have kept him from producing much to date at the big league level. García still has a minor league option year remaining after this season, so it’s possible a team could claim him and keep him in the system as high minors infield depth.

Houston acquired Montero alongside Kendall Graveman as part of a deadline deal with the Mariners. Montero had underperformed in Seattle and was included in the deal largely to offset salary. He performed well over his first four appearances with the Astros, tossing six innings of one-run ball. Unfortunately, right shoulder discomfort landed him on the IL just a couple weeks after the trade.

Today’s transfer rules Montero out for sixty days from August 10, the date of his initial IL placement. It’s theoretically possible he could make it back for a postseason run, but it seems more likely he won’t return this season. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the fourth and final time of his career this offseason. If tendered a contract, he’d be in line for a slight raise on this season’s $2.25MM salary.

Scrubb returns for the first time since mid-July, when he landed on the IL with a shoulder strain. The 26-year-old has worked 19 2/3 frames of 5.03 ERA ball, striking out a decent 24.4% of batters faced but issuing walks at an alarming 16.3% clip. Jones, meanwhile, is back after missing a couple weeks upon testing positive for the coronavirus. He’s hitting .245/.269/.402 across 108 plate appearances.

Astros Reinstate Pedro Baez From Injured List

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The Astros announced they’re activating reliever Pedro Báez from the 60-day injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the Rockies. Bullpen colleague Rafael Montero is landing on the 10-day injured list with right shoulder discomfort in a corresponding move. To open space for Báez on the 40-man roster, the club transferred righty Andre Scrubb from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list.

Báez, signed to a two-year deal over the winter, is finally in line to make his Astros debut. The 33-year-old missed a few weeks in Spring Training after testing positive for COVID-19, then felt soreness in his right shoulder during his attempt to ramp up a throwing program. The latter issue has kept him out of action for the past few months as the soreness has persisted. Fortunately, he’s now apparently healthy and able to contribute for the stretch run.

During his time with the Dodgers, Báez was quietly one of the league’s more consistent and productive relievers. He posted an ERA between 2.63 and 3.35 during each of his seven seasons in L.A. While Báez’s run prevention numbers never wavered, his peripherals have tailed off in recent seasons. The righty struck out a career-worst 18.6% of opponents last year with accompanying dips in swinging strike rate and velocity.

That came in a 17-inning sample during an anomalous year, though, and the Astros felt comfortable enough to add Báez on a $12.5MM guarantee. If he pitches at or near the level he showed throughout his Dodgers’ tenure, Báez would be a significant upgrade to a Houston relief unit that’s middle of the pack in terms of ERA (3.97) and strikeout/walk rate differential (15.2 percentage points).

Houston added Montero alongside Kendall Graveman from the Mariners at the trade deadline as part of an effort to shore up the bullpen. Montero had a nightmarish time in Seattle, but he’d begun his Astros tenure with six innings of one-run ball. He left Sunday’s game against the Twins with a shoulder issue, though, and his recovery timeline remains uncertain.

Scrubb is also down with a shoulder issue. The 26-year-old landed on the IL on July 19 with a strain. Today’s transfer rules him out for sixty days from that date, so he’s looking at a mid-September return in a best case scenario. There’s no word on whether or not the team expects he’ll be able to pitch again this season.

Manager Dusty Baker provided reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and Mark Berman of FOX 26) with updates on a pair of different injured players. Star third baseman Alex Bregman still isn’t ready to return, and his allotted twenty-day rehab window has passed. League rules stipulate that position players not prepared to return after the conclusion of their rehab period must remain inactive for at least five days before reembarking on a minor league assignment, so Bregman can’t return to game action until Friday.

Starter José Urquidy, meanwhile, is scheduled to begin his own rehab assignment tomorrow. Baker said the club is hopeful he’ll be back on a big league mound by September 1. Urquidy has been out since June 30 with right shoulder discomfort.

Astros Notes: Bregman, Brantley, Montero

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TODAY: Bregman is “not ready yet,” Baker said during a radio interview on SportsTalk 790 (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle).  The third baseman is “taking a couple days off to get some treatment” and will then presumably return to his minor league rehab assignment, with Baker hopeful Bregman can return to the Astros within 7-10 days.

AUGUST 8: Alex Bregman was in Houston today watching the Astros in action, and an official return to the field might not be far away.  Manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that Bregman was meeting with the team after playing nine innings in each of his last two rehab games with Triple-A Sugar Land.

A left quad strain sent Bregman to the 10-day injured list back on June 17, so it will be just shy of a two-month absence for the third baseman if he is indeed activated this week.  The Astros have a two-game series with the Rockies sandwiched between off-days on Monday and Thursday this week, and if Bregman is already in Houston, it would hint that he could be reinstated from the IL as early as Tuesday.

Between his quad issue and a week-long absence in April due to COVID-19 protocols, Bregman has played in only 59 games this season, but he has still been productive in hitting .275/.359/.428 over 262 plate appearances.  This roughly matches his slash line over 180 PA in 2020, as Bregman was hampered by a hamstring injury last year and limited to 44 games of the 60-game regular season.  While a big step down from his MVP-caliber numbers in 2018 and 2019, Bregman is certainly still a dangerous bat when healthy, and his return will help bolster a Houston team that has its eyes on more postseason success.

While Bregman’s probable return is good news for the Astros, the club also had some more injury scares in today’s 7-5 loss to the Twins.  The Astros announced that Michael Brantley was removed for precautionary reasons after a blow to the head during a collision with Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons while running the bases early in the game.  Brantley, in the lineup as the DH, was replaced by a pinch-hitter in the third inning.

In the eighth, Rafael Montero had to depart one pitch into a Rob Refsnyder plate appearance.  Entering the game in the previous inning, Montero retired his first five batters before walking Miguel Sano, and then picking up some type of injury against Refsnyder.  Post-game, Baker said Montero was suffering from some shoulder soreness, and will receive further examination by the team’s medical staff.

Mariners, Astros Swap Kendall Graveman For Abraham Toro In Four-Player Trade

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In a rare and rather stunning swap between a pair of division rivals who are both in contention, the Mariners have traded closer Kendall Graveman and recently designated-for-assignment righty Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for young infielder Abraham Toro and veteran righty Joe Smith, according to both clubs. The trade is even more eye-opening when considering that the two clubs are gearing up to play each other in the second game of a three-game set tonight.

Trading Graveman at all registers as a moderate surprise, given the Mariners’ recent climb in the standings and stated desire to improve the 2021 roster. To see him traded to the division-leading Astros while the two squads are playing one another is downright jarring. That said, Graveman is a free agent at season’s end, and in Toro, the Mariners are acquiring five seasons of control over an infielder who has been considered one of Houston’s more promising young prospects for the past few years.

In speaking to the media about the trade, Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto plainly acknowledged that as a standalone transaction, it’s a head-scratching move. But Dipoto also emphasized some patience, suggesting this move is but one of a sequence of trades designed to improve the Mariners’ chances both in 2021 and over the long-term down the road (Twitter thread via MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer). Dipoto suggested a subsequent trade or trades could come together as soon as tonight or in the coming days, but it seems as though this is but one of a series of moves for which the Mariners are angling; time will tell just how the moves look when judged in their totality.

Toro, 24, hasn’t yet pieced things together in limited big league action, but he’s decimated Triple-A pitching (.392/.497/.600 in 33 games) and posted strong numbers in pitcher-friendly Double-A settings (.282/.369/.468 in 148 games). The switch-hitting Toro provides the Mariners with a possible long-term option at third base, but he’s also logged considerable time at second base — another area where the Mariners have been known to be seeking help. That long-term fit isn’t likely to matter much to the clubhouse, however, and Divish rather unsurprisingly tweets that the decision to trade Graveman to their top division rival was not well-received among Seattle players.

That’s understandable on Seattle’s end, given just how dominant Graveman has become since transitioning to the bullpen late in the 2020 season. The former Athletics starter has bounced back from an injury-lost 2019 season to emerge as one of the American League’s more effective relievers. In 33 innings this season, Graveman has pitched to a 0.82 ERA with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate, a 6.6 walk rate and a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate. Dating back to his shift to the bullpen in 2020, he’s compiled 43 innings of 1.47 ERA ball.

Graveman is likely all the more appealing to the luxury-conscious Astros because of his affordable salary. He’s playing on a one-year, $1.25MM contract. Incentives have already boosted that base salary by $400K, and the contract overall contains a total of $3MM in reachable incentives. That said, $1.5MM of those are tied up in games finished, and manager Dusty Baker has already indicated that Ryan Pressly is likely to continue as his closer. Graveman could still collect six more stray games finished to reach his first of three would-be $500K bonuses tied to games finished, but it’s unlikely he reaches the 30 and 40 games finished needed to unlock the next pair of $500K bonuses. In all, the contract will likely top out paying him somewhere in the range of $2.65MM based on incentives tied to days on the roster, games finished and total innings pitched.

Montero’s inclusion in the trade is likely a pure accounting measure. The combined salaries of Montero and Graveman ought to clock in somewhere in the same ballpark as Smith’s $4MM salary and luxury-tax hit, though depending on the status of Graveman’s incentives, the Astros could come out either a bit ahead or a bit behind where they were previously projected.

Montero opened the season as the closer in Seattle but struggled early and has been mired in a catastrophic slump of late, yielding 16 runs in his past 11 innings. The ’Stros may have their own ideas on how to help a reliever who was quite good with the Rangers in 2019-20 right the ship, but Montero’s inclusion doesn’t appear to be a key part of the swap. At best he’s a roll of the dice, and at worst he’s a financial counterweight who could be cut loose quickly if his struggles persist.

The same is largely true of Smith, who opted out of the 2020 season after signing a two-year deal in Houston and has been clobbered for a 7.48 ERA in 21 2/3 innings this year. Some of that has been attributable to a sky-high .413 batting average on balls in play, but Smith is sporting a career-low strikeout rate, a grounder rate that’s well off his peak levels and has also been quite homer-prone. As with Houston and Montero, perhaps the Mariners have an idea or two about how to get the veteran righty back on track, but the trade is much more about Graveman and Toro than about the struggling relievers accompanying those two players.

Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times first tweeted that Toro and a reliever were going to the Mariners in exchange for two players. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart provided the full context on the trade.

Mariners Designate Rafael Montero For Assignment

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The Mariners announced Friday that they’ve designated right-hander Rafael Montero for assignment. His spot on the active and 40-man rosters will go to righty Casey Sadler, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

Acquired from the Rangers in an offseason trade that sent a pair of 18-year-old prospects — righty Jose Corniell and infielder Andres Mesa — to the Rangers, Montero opened the season as the closer in Seattle. He struggled early in the year and eventually relinquished that ninth-inning job to breakout righty Kendall Graveman.

Montero never found much consistency, even in a setup capacity, but his results dating back to the end of June have just become too much for the club to overlook. Montero has not only been scored upon in seven of his past eight appearances — he’s given up multiple runs in each of those seven outings. Since June 25, he’s pitched to a whopping 13.09 ERA in 11 innings — surrendering 16 runs on 25 hits and four walks with 11 punchouts in that time. That brutal stretch has ballooned his season ERA all the way to 7.27.

As rough as the 2021 season has been for Montero, the former Mets farmhand was quite good in his two seasons with Texas. He signed with the Rangers while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and eventually made his debut partway through the 2019 season, slowly earning the team’s trust in higher-leverage spots. By the 2020 season he was the primary closer in Arlington, leading the club with eight saves. Montero’s two years in Texas produced a 3.09 ERA with a strong 28.6 percent strikeout rate against just a 5.9 percent walk rate.

Things clearly didn’t work out in Seattle, and the Mariners will now have a week to trade Montero, place him on outright waivers or simply release him. He’s on a $2.25MM salary, making it highly unlikely that a team would either trade for him or claim him on waivers if placed there. And, even if Montero goes unclaimed, he reached five years of Major League service time in 2021, giving him the right to reject the outright assignment in favor of free agency — without forfeiting the remaining guarantee on his deal.

As such, it seems quite likely that today will spell the end of Montero’s time with the organization. If he does either receive his release or reject an outright assignment, he’ll hit the open market in search of a change of scenery and fresh opportunity. Given how well Montero pitched in 2019-20, other clubs would surely have interest on what would essentially be a free look.

As for the 31-year-old Sadler, he’ll return to the Mariners and look to build on what was a strong start to his time with the club. Seattle plucked him off waivers out of the Cubs organization in 2020, and he’s proceeded to give them 21 innings of 3.00 ERA relief work dating back to the time of that claim. Sadler has fanned exactly a quarter of the 88 batters he’s faced as a Mariner and kept the ball on the ground at a roughly 44 percent clip as well.

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