Poll: How Will The Orioles Rotation Shake Out?
Yesterday, the Orioles announced they optioned left-hander Cade Povich to Triple-A Norfolk. That news was hardly a surprise, as Povich is perhaps the seventh or eighth starter on the team’s depth chart. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers form a solid top two, while offseason additions Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Zach Eflin fill the group out on paper.
That would leave Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer on the outside looking in. That’s at least true of Wells, who was officially informed he’d start the season in the bullpen two weeks ago. There remains a certain level of ambiguity regarding Kremer’s role, however. That’s a fairly new feeling for the right-hander, who has started 123 of his 126 games in the majors and been a full-time player in the majors since June 2022. In those four years, he’s been a solid but unspectacular back-end rotation piece with a 3.95 ERA and 4.17 FIP across 599 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 20.3% of his opponents while walking 7.4%, both numbers that hover right around league average.
Being a league average starting pitcher is hardly a bad thing. Volume has value, and Kremer’s 171 2/3 innings last year made him one of just 47 qualified starters in MLB. On the other hand, it’s not too difficult to improve on what he offers. Just 11 of those 47 pitchers had a worse season by ERA- than Kremer. Even by lowering the innings threshold to 100, Kremer clocks in ahead of just 40 of 119 starters on the list.
So, how is Kremer best used for Baltimore this year? The right-hander does have an option remaining, so the club could simply send him to the minors and have him at the ready in case one of their starting five gets injured. That could be preferable to moving Kremer to the bullpen. Having both Wells and Kremer in relief roles would leave the Orioles with their depth hollowed out to an extent. While there are certainly pitchers capable of sliding between the bullpen and rotation on a moment’s notice, it can take time for even players experienced in that sort of swing role to stretch out fully after moving from the bullpen.
The O’s could also give Kremer a spot in a six-man rotation. While the team’s bullpen has more than a dozen viable options, the only pitchers truly locked into spots appear to be Wells, Ryan Helsley, Keegan Akin, Dietrich Enns and Yennier Cano. They’ll eventually reinstall Andrew Kittredge into the late-inning mix, but he’ll start the season on the injured list after battling shoulder inflammation early in camp.
That’s the sort of depth that could support a six-man rotation, especially with Wells available to cover multiple innings. That could be an attractive option given that the rest of the rotation has plenty of reason to need extra rest. Bradish is coming off UCL surgery. Bassitt is entering his age-37 season. Rogers has never made more than 25 starts, and Eflin just suffered through an injury-marred season that ended in back surgery. A six-man rotation would offer each of those players some additional rest days and make it much easier to keep that group fresh for what the Orioles are surely hoping will be a deep run into October.
That aforementioned offseason surgery for Eflin could, at least in theory, offer a third option. Kremer could begin the season as the Orioles’ fifth starter while Eflin opens the season on the injured list, giving him more time to build up and kicking the decision down the road for a few weeks. Eflin was targeting an Opening Day return to action as far back as December, but even at the time acknowledged that it was far from a sure thing.
Fast forward to today, and he’s so far made just two appearances in Spring Training, the latest of which was abbreviated by a rainout. While he impressed in both outings, neither lasted more than two innings. It’s unclear, at this point, if Baltimore will be able to get Eflin fully stretched out for the start of the season or if they would be willing to dedicate a spot in a five-man rotation to him if he isn’t built up to anything close to the 90-100 pitches typically expected of an MLB starter.
How do MLBTR readers think the Orioles will settle their Opening Day rotation? Will they send Kremer to the minors, place Eflin on the injured list, or use both in a six-man rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
What will the Orioles rotation look like on Opening Day?
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Zach Eflin will begin the season on the injured list. 52% (866)
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The Orioles will fit both Eflin and Kremer into a six-man rotation. 35% (577)
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Dean Kremer will begin the season in the minor leagues or the bullpen. 14% (226)
Total votes: 1,669
AL East Notes: Abreu, Kremer, Sugano, Goldschmidt
Wilyer Abreu was (retroactively) placed on the 10-day injured list on August 18 due to a right calf strain, and some eyebrows were raised last Sunday when both Abreu and Red Sox manager Alex Cora didn’t have any sort of timeline in place for the outfielder’s return, other than Abreu stressing that he wanted to “be ready for the playoffs.” Some literal steps in the right direction were taken this weekend when Cora told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo and other reporters that Abreu took part in running activities on both Friday and Saturday.
Cora described the drills as “the start of the progression,” and noted that Abreu “wasn’t at full speed.” The skipper didn’t have any more details about when Abreu could be tapped for a minor league rehab assignment or an activation from the IL. While naturally the Red Sox won’t rush Abreu for fear of re-aggravating his injury, there is some increased urgency to bolster the outfield now that Roman Anthony‘s regular season has possibly been ended by an oblique strain. What was once an overcrowded outfield picture in Boston has been thinned out by the loss of two regulars, leaving the Sox with a Rob Refsnyder/Nate Eaton timeshare in right field since Anthony’s IL placement.
More from around the AL East…
- It seems like Dean Kremer has avoided the worst, as an MRI came back clean on the Orioles starter’s right forearm. Kremer had to make an early exit from Friday’s start due to forearm soreness, and interim manager Tony Mansolino told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters that the O’s will skip Kremer’s next turn in the rotation as a precaution. However, Kremer has already been throwing to test his readiness, and may be able to avoid the injured list altogether. The righty has been a source of stability within an injury-marred pitching staff, as Kremer has a 4.43 ERA over a team-leading 158 1/3 inning pitched. The hits kept coming for the Orioles today, as the team announced that “foot discomfort” forced starter Tomoyuki Sugano out of the game in the fourth inning, after Sugano was struck in the foot by a hard comebacker to the mound.
- Paul Goldschmidt‘s playing time has already been reduced by his struggles at the plate, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone told media (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that the first baseman is also dealing with a bone bruise on his left knee. Tests revealed no structural damage and Goldschmidt is officially day to day, though Boone said Goldschmidt only would’ve played yesterday in an emergency scenario. After a scorching start to 2025, Goldschmidt has been in a slump that has now stretched beyond three months, as he has hit just .219/.265/.342 over his last 255 plate appearances. Goldschmidt might’ve already been trying to play through a knee sprain suffered in mid-August, and the bone bruise only adds to his difficulties in attempting to get on track for the postseason push.
Orioles Remain In The Market For Pitching Upgrades
Late last week, the Orioles added veteran right-hander Charlie Morton to their rotation mix on a one-year deal. On paper, the addition (alongside the club’s one-year deal with Tomoyuki Sugano earlier last month) would appear to fill their rotation. Things may not be that simple, however, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that Baltimore remains in the market for upgrades even after adding Morton to their rotation mix.
As noted by Rosenthal, the Orioles already have a fairly deep rotation mix as things stand. Morton and Sugano are joined by Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez as locks for the club’s rotation next year, with Dean Kremer poised to round out the starting five. Rosenthal suggests that veteran journeyman Albert Suárez could pitch in as the club’s sixth starter if the Orioles opt for a six-man rotation this year, but even if they stick with just five starters Suárez figures to slot into the bullpen as a swing-man who can move back into the rotation as needed. Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott are all available as depth options behind that group, as well.
If Baltimore were to add another starter, it seems likely that Kremer would be the odd man out. The right-hander made 24 starts for the Orioles last year and pitched to decent results, with a 4.10 ERA (92 ERA+) and a 4.32 FIP in 129 2/3 innings of work. That’s perfectly solid production for a fifth starter, but those numbers also shouldn’t prevent the Orioles from upgrading their rotation mix and squeezing Kremer out of the picture. After all, the right-hander has been at least slightly below average by measure of ERA+ in every season of his career except 2022, when he pitched to an impressive 3.23 ERA in 125 1/3 innings of work in a career year.
Kremer, who is arbitration eligible for the first time in his career this winter, has a minor league option remaining that could offer the Orioles some flexibility if the club decides to add further to its rotation. Speculatively speaking, however, it’s also possible that the club could consider offering the right-hander as part of the return to land a starter on the trade market. Kremer has three seasons of team control remaining, so offering him up in order to land a rental pitcher like Dylan Cease would be a risky move given the fact that Morton, Sugano, and Eflin are all already ticketed for free agency next winter. That said, it seems feasible that Kremer could make sense as part of the return for a controllable arm such as Luis Castillo or Pablo López.
Rosenthal previously reported that the Mariners have some pause about dealing Castillo given their lackluster rotation depth behind the current starting five, which could make the Orioles a particularly good trade partner if they’re willing to make Kremer or even one of their younger arms like Povich available. Rosenthal reports that the Mariners are requiring major league talent in return for Castillo’s services this winter, while noting that Baltimore seems reluctant to deal from its cache of young position players. Perhaps a package focused on Kremer and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle could make some sense for both sides, then, offering Seattle a pair of arbitration-level players with multiple years of control while landing the Orioles the controllable, front-line starter they’ve been seeking.
Of course, the trade market isn’t the only way that Baltimore could upgrade their rotation. Former Oriole Jack Flaherty is still available on the free agent market, and the club was frequently connected to him prior to the club’s deal with Morton. If the Orioles remain in the market for rotation upgrades even after adding Morton to the fold, it stands to reason that Flaherty remains at least a potential fit for the club’s needs despite some recent reporting that has suggested the club could balk at the righty’s asking price. Flaherty seems certain to land a multi-year deal this winter, with reports indicating he’s angling for a five-year pact. Such an addition would offer Baltimore a bit more certainty in its rotation for 2026 and beyond by allowing them to project a starting five that includes Flaherty, Rodriguez, and Kremer for next season alongside Kyle Bradish, who could return from elbow surgery at some point in the second half this year.
Moving beyond the possibility of further rotation upgrades, Rosenthal adds that the Orioles hope to supplement its bullpen mix this winter. The biggest addition to Baltimore’s relief corps is sure to be the return for closer Félix Bautista from Tommy John surgery, but it stands to reason that the club could use at least one veteran arm to join Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin, and Gregory Soto among the club’s potential late-inning options ahead of Bautista. While Baltimore has not been directly connected to any specific relievers in this year’s free agent market, they figure to benefit from the fact that there’s been minimal movement on the relief market to this point in the winter if the club decides to hold off on adding bullpen help until later in the winter.
Orioles Recall Coby Mayo, Activate Zach Eflin
11:48am: The Orioles have officially announced the return of both Eflin and Mayo, and have placed Urias on the 10-day IL with a right ankle sprain. Additionally, the club selected the contract of catcher David Banuelos from Triple-A and designated outfielder Forrest Wall for assignment to make room for him on the 40-man roster. Banuelos has spent most of the season at Triple-A after being outrighted to the minors back in April, while Wall was claimed off waivers from the Marlins just a few days ago but will now return to the waiver wire.
7:38am: Rosters expand from 26 to 28 today, meaning every team in baseball will get to call up an additional pitcher and an additional hitter as they begin play today. There’s little mystery about who those players will be for the Orioles, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Brandon Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that right-hander Zach Eflin will be activated from the 15-day Injured List to start today’s game against the Rockies this afternoon. Earlier in the day, Weyrich reported that top infield prospect Coby Mayo was poised to join the club as their additional hitter when rosters expanded today.
It will be the second taste of big league action for Mayo, 22. The youngster got his feet wet in the majors earlier this month with a brief cup of coffee that lasted only seven games and 20 at-bats, and he hit just .059 without an extra-base hit in that brief stint at the big league level before being optioned back to the minors. His sensational .293/.369/.574 slash line at the Triple-A level this season has left him with nothing more to prove in the minor leagues, however, so Mayo now figures to get a more extended opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues as fellow rookie Jackson Holliday has. Holliday struggled badly in his first ten games in the majors back in April but has looked better since returning to the majors the day after the trade deadline with a .218/.275/.426 slash line that’s good for a roughly league average 98 wRC+.
As for Eflin, the veteran right-hander came over to Baltimore in a trade with the Rays prior to the deadline. After posting strong enough numbers last year to finish sixth in the AL Cy Young award race, the right-hander took a step back with Tampa last year, posting a pedestrian 4.09 ERA in 19 starts despite a solid 3.68 FIP. Things changed when Eflin got to Baltimore, however, and in four starts after the swap the righty looked nothing short of excellent with a 2.13 ERA and a 24.5% strikeout rate in 25 2/3 innings of work. Eflin has been sidelined in recent weeks by a bout of shoulder inflammation, but it seems now he’s healthy enough to return to action. The Orioles are surely counting on the righty to help keep afloat a beleaguered rotation that also lost Grayson Rodriguez to the injured list in the month of August.
While Mayo and Eflin were both expected to be the club’s extra players following roster expansion, it’s possible after last night’s game that two more spots on the roster could open up today as both right-hander Dean Kremer and infielder Ramon Urias exited due to injuries yesterday. Kremer was struck by a comebacker in the fourth inning yesterday and exited with a right forearm contusion, with Manny Randhawa of MLB.com among those to relay the news that Kremer’s initial x-rays came back negative. As noted by Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner, both he and Urias, who who suffered a sprained ankle after also narrowly avoiding injury when struck in the face by a pitch earlier in the game, figure to be evaluated further today to see if either player will require a stint on the injured list.
The planned returns of Eflin and Mayo to the roster coincidentally figure to cover for the losses of Kremer in the rotation and Urias at third base in the short term, but if either player requires a stint on the injured list the team will likely need to deep into its depth in order to fill out the roster. Deadline addition Trevor Rogers is on the 40-man roster and could return to the rotation is Kremer misses time, though he was optioned after posting a disastrous 7.11 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole. On the positional side, meanwhile, non-roster veterans like J.D. Davis or Jean Segura could provide infield depth for the club if Urias ends up going on the shelf.
Orioles Notes: Holliday, Means, Kremer
The Orioles placed Jackson Holliday on the minor league injured list yesterday. Despite the lack of impact on the club’s active roster, the move nonetheless raised eyebrows thanks to Holliday’s status as the consensus #1 overall prospect in the sport. Fortunately, club GM Mike Elias told reporters (including MASN’s Melanie Newman) that Holliday is dealing with a “barking” shoulder but that the issue isn’t serious and that he’s expected to need only a “few weeks” of rest before he returns to action.
That’s surely a relief for fans in Baltimore, as Holliday figures to join fellow youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez as a key part of the core for the Orioles going forward once he establishes himself at the big league level. The 20-year-old infielder got his first taste of big league action earlier this year but struggled badly with a with just two hits in 36 trips to the plate across ten games. That tough stretch led the Orioles to send Holliday back to the minors, and he’s continued to hit well at the Triple-A level since his return with a .252/.418/.429 slash line in 189 trips to the plate.
That being said, Holliday has struggled (at least by his own lofty standards) in the month of June so far, hitting just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage, although his proclivity for drawing walks has allowed him to remain productive over all. Between the youngster’s relative struggles and his apparent elbow issue, it’s hardly a surprise that the Orioles have decided to play it safe with their prized prospect. Fortunately for fans in Baltimore, the Orioles lineup has played incredibly well to this point in the season and is hardly in need of reinforcements. The club’s 116 wRC+ is the third best figure in baseball this year, and Jorge Mateo has posted a decent .236/.281/.441 (103 wRC+) slash line while getting the lion’s share of playing time at Holliday’s likely long term position of second base.
In other news around the Orioles, southpaw John Means recently underwent his second Tommy John surgery in just over two years after making four starts for Baltimore late in the 2023 campaign and another four starts this year. Despite the surely frustrating physical setbacks, however, Means recently told reporters (including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball) that he fully intends to return to pitching after he completes his post-surgery rehab, which will sideline him for the entire 2024 season and much of 2025.
“I still want to pitch, honestly,” Means said (per Dubroff). “I’d like to fail on the field before I give it up. I feel like if I go there, I can still pitch and get outs. I still feel really confident about my ability. I have to have my elbow keep up.”
For all of Means’s struggles in terms of staying on the field, he’s certainly been effective when healthy. The southpaw has a career 3.68 ERA with a 4.56 FIP across his 401 innings of work in the majors, and although he’s managed just ten starts since the beginning of the 2022 campaign he’s been nothing short of excellent in them with a 2.75 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 52 1/3 innings of work. Given those strong results, it’s not hard to imagine Means, 31, returning to action as an effective and valuable starter once he’s finally healthy. It’s unclear whether or not that return will come in an Orioles uniform, however, as the lefty is set to become a free agent after the 2024 campaign.
With Means and Tyler Wells both sidelined by UCL surgery and ace righty Kyle Bradish dealing with UCL issues of his own, the Baltimore rotation is in a bit of a tough spot. While Corbin Burnes and Rodriguez combine to form a strong top of the rotation, the club has been left to rely on Cole Irvin, Cade Povich, and Albert Suarez to round out the group due to a number of injuries. Fortunately, help could be on the way soon for the club as MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that right-hander Dean Kremer is expected to begin a rehab assignment with a “40-ish” pitch outing tomorrow.
MLB.com goes on to note that it remains up in the air whether or not Kremer will need another rehab start before returning to the Orioles, meaning the 28-year-old could potentially return to action for the club as soon as sometime late next week. The return of Kremer, who has been on the injured list for a little less than a month due to a triceps strain, would provide reliable innings for the Orioles pitching staff. Since the start of the 2022 season, Kremer has pitched to a solid 3.83 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 4.30 FIP in 348 innings of work for Baltimore.
AL East Notes: Soto, Kremer, Tiedemann
Yankees fans received an update regarding the status of superstar outfielder Juan Soto today after he underwent imaging on his forearm yesterday. Manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic) this afternoon prior to the club’s scheduled game against the Dodgers about the young star’s status and noted that while a trip to the injured list “remains a possibility” for Soto, the club doesn’t currently anticipate one being necessary. Even so, Boone added that it could be at least “a couple” of days before Soto returns to the lineup as the club continues to be cautious about the injury.
That Soto is expected to avoid an IL stint is surely a relief for the Yankees, as their biggest offseason acquisition has carried the club offensively alongside Aaron Judge to this point in the season. Even by his own lofty standards, the young star has gotten off to an excellent start this year with a .318/.424/.603 slash line in 290 trips to the plate since the Yankees acquired him from the Padres in a blockbuster deal that sent a multi-player packaged headlined by righty Michael King to San Diego. A significant absence by Soto would be particularly devastating for the Yankees seeing as the 25-year-old has helped to pick up the club’s offense amid struggles from key regulars like Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres.
With Soto temporarily out of action, Trent Grisham figures to receive regular starts in the outfield, taking on the center field job and kicking Judge back to his previous role as the club’s everyday right fielder. If Soto were to ultimately require a trip to the shelf, it’s possible the Yankees could turn to youngster Everson Pereira to fill out their outfield mix. The well-regarded prospect struggled in his first taste of big league action last year but has slashed a solid .265/.346/.512 at the Triple-A level this season.
More to come…
- Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer is making progress in his rehab from a triceps strain that sent him to the injured list late last month, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun) earlier this afternoon. As Meyer notes, Hyde indicated that Kremer is set to throw a bullpen within the next few days, with Hyde adding that “everything is trending in the right direction” regarding his recovery. While Hyde did not place a timeline on the right-hander beginning a rehab assignment to the minor leagues, a speedy return by Kremer would surely be a huge relief to an Orioles club that will be without both Tyler Wells and John Means for the remainder of the 2024 campaign. As things stand, the club is relying on Albert Suarez, Cole Irvin, and Cade Povich to fill out the rotation behind Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, and Grayson Rodriguez.
- Blue Jays top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann was thought to be on the cusp of his big league debut entering the 2024 campaign, but those plans were scuttled when he was sidelined just eight innings into his season by inflammation of the ulnar nerve in his elbow. While it’s certainly fortunate that the lefty avoided any structural damage, the injury has nonetheless left him sidelined for the majority of the season. Fortunately, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi relayed earlier today that, according to Toronto manager John Schneider, Tiedemann threw a live bullpen yesterday where “everything went well.” Schneider went on to note that the next step for Tiedemann could be a rehab game either with Single-A Dunedin or perhaps with the club’s Florida Complex League team.
Orioles Place Dean Kremer On Injured List
The Orioles announced that they have recalled right-hander Dillon Tate and left-hander Nick Vespi. In corresponding moves, right-hander Jonathan Heasley has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk while righty Dean Kremer has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right triceps strain. Kremer’s IL move is retroactive to May 21.
The Orioles have not yet provided any information about the severity of Kremer’s injury, but it will provide the Orioles with a challenge nonetheless. Just a week ago, the club began a stretch of playing 42 games in 44 days and was planning to go to a six-man rotation to keep their starters fresh. However, John Means landed on the injured list yesterday due to a forearm strain and now Kremer is on the shelf as well.
That leaves Baltimore with a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. The latter two were also on the IL earlier this year, though each was reinstated this month. Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez were each in the rotation earlier this year but had been bumped to the bullpen. With the injury bug biting this week, both of them may have to return to starting roles.
That plan will come with a couple of challenges. Irvin threw 56 pitches in a relief outing on Wednesday and may not be available for a couple more days. Suárez was stretched out earlier this year but it’s been about two weeks since he pitched more than an inning.
Even if the O’s can find a way to smoothly transition Irvin and Suárez back to the rotation, that still leaves them with just five starters when they had planned on having six. Perhaps they consider that acceptable, but with Bradish and Rodriguez having already missed time this year, getting them a bit of extra rest during this tough part of the schedule could still be a priority.
Bruce Zimmermann is on the 40-man roster but has been on the minor league IL for almost two weeks now due to a hamstring strain. Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, two of the club’s top pitching prospects, are pitching well in Triple-A but neither is on the 40-man roster.
Whatever the Orioles are planning, more information may be forthcoming this weekend. Burnes is taking the ball tonight but Kremer was scheduled for Saturday. Both Bradish and Rodriguez pitched too recently to take the ball on normal rest by tomorrow.
The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think
The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.
Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.
While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.
When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.
Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.
The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.
The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.
It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.
Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.
With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.
With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.
Latest On Orioles’ Rotation
The Orioles haven’t gotten much production from their rotation through the first couple weeks. Baltimore starters entered play Wednesday with a 6.23 ERA that ranked 26th in the majors, while their strikeout and walk rates are middle-of-the-pack.
Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez has been part of those struggles, allowing seven runs in 9 1/3 innings in his first two MLB starts. While the results haven’t been great, the highly-touted righty has shown the high-octane stuff that has intrigued evaluators and fans for years. He’s averaging 97 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on an excellent 13.2% of his pitches.
After Rodriguez’s start against the A’s on Tuesday, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters the rookie would get another turn through the rotation (relayed by Roch Kuabtko of MASNsports.com). Assuming the club stays on schedule, Rodriguez is lined up to take the ball against Dylan Cease and the White Sox on Sunday.
The O’s didn’t break camp with Rodriguez in the rotation. Baltimore called him up last week after losing Kyle Bradish to the 15-day injured list because of a right foot contusion. Bradish’s injury was never expected to be serious and he’s already set for a rehab assignment. Hyde told reporters the righty will take the ball for Double-A Bowie on Friday (via Andy Kostka of Baltimore Banner). That’d seemingly put Bradish on track to be reinstated when first eligible on April 19.
Hyde downplayed the possibility of rolling with a six-man rotation. If the O’s want to stick with a five-man starting staff, they’d have to make a decision once Bradish is activated from the IL (barring an intervening injury). Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are locks to hold jobs, which would seemingly squeeze one of Bradish, Rodriguez, Tyler Wells or Dean Kremer out of the group.
Kremer, in particular, is off to a rough start. The 27-year-old has been tagged for 13 runs in 12 1/3 innings across three appearances, surrendering five home runs in that limited stretch. Kremer had been one of Baltimore’s most effective starters last year, when he posted a 3.23 ERA in 125 1/3 frames. Dan Connolly of the Athletic wrote last night that Kremer’s hold on a rotation spot could be tenuous if he continues to scuffle. That came before the righty surrendered four runs and allowed homers to Brent Rooker and Carlos Pérez in 4 1/3 frames during tonight’s loss to Oakland.
Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters
The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.
Without further ado…
Angels
- Glenn Albanese Jr.
- Jaime Barria
- Gustavo Campero
- Alan Carter
- Jhonathan Diaz
- Carlos Estevez
- David Fletcher
- Jake Kalish
- D’Shawn Knowles
- Shohei Ohtani
- Jose Quijada
- Luis Rengifo
- Gerardo Reyes
- Patrick Sandoval
- Mike Trout
- Gio Urshela
- Cesar Valdez
- Zack Weiss
- Aaron Whitefield
Astros
- Bryan Abreu
- Jose Altuve
- Ronel Blanco
- Luis Garcia
- Colton Gordon
- Cristian Javier
- Martin Maldonado
- Rafael Montero
- Hector Neris
- Jeremy Pena
- Ryan Pressly
- Andre Scrubb
- Kyle Tucker
- Jose Urquidy
- Derek West
Athletics
Blue Jays
- Jose Berrios
- Jiorgeny Casimiri
- Yimi Garcia
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Spencer Horwitz
- Alejandro Kirk
- Otto Lopez
- Damiano Palmegiani
Braves
Brewers
- Willy Adames
- Sal Frelick
- Alex Hall
- Matt Hardy
- Joel Payamps
- Rowdy Tellez
- Abraham Toro
- Luis Urias
- Michele Vassalotti
- Devin Williams
Cardinals
- Nolan Arenado
- Genesis Cabrera
- Tommy Edman
- Giovanny Gallegos
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Ivan Herrera
- Matt Koperniak
- Noah Mendlinger
- Oscar Mercado
- Miles Mikolas
- Lars Nootbaar
- Tyler O’Neill
- JoJo Romero
- Adam Wainwright
- Guillermo Zuniga
Cubs
- Javier Assad
- Owen Caissie
- Danis Correa
- Ben DeLuzio
- Roenis Elias
- Miles Mastrobuoni
- Matt Mervis
- B.J. Murray Jr.
- Vinny Nittoli
- Fabian Pertuz
- Liam Spence
- Seiya Suzuki
- Marcus Stroman
- Pedro Strop
- Nelson Velazquez
- Jared Young
Diamondbacks
- Dominic Fletcher
- Jakob Goldfarb
- Gunnar Groen
- Merrill Kelly
- Ketel Marte
- Eric Mendez
- Dominic Miroglio
- Emmanuel Rivera
- Jacob Steinmetz
- Mitchell Stumpo
- Alek Thomas
Dodgers
- Austin Barnes
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Clayton Kershaw
- Adam Kolarek
- Miguel Rojas
- Will Smith
- Trayce Thompson
- Julio Urias
Giants
Guardians
- Enyel De Los Santos
- Dayan Frias
- Andres Gimenez
- Bo Naylor
- Richie Palacios
- Cal Quantrill
- Cade Smith
- Meibrys Viloria
- Josh Wolf
Marlins
Mariners
- Matt Brash
- Diego Castillo
- Matt Festa
- Harry Ford
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Milkar Perez
- Julio Rodriguez
- Eugenio Suarez
- Blake Townsend
Mets
- Pete Alonso
- Jonathan Arauz
- Edwin Diaz
- Eduardo Escobar
- Dominic Hamel
- Elieser Hernandez
- Francisco Lindor
- Jeff McNeil
- Omar Narvaez
- Cam Opp
- Adam Ottavino
- Jose Quintana
- Brooks Raley
- Claudio Scotti
Nationals
Orioles
Padres
- Xander Bogaerts
- Nabil Crismatt
- Nelson Cruz
- Jarryd Dale
- Yu Darvish
- Jose Espada
- Ruben Galindo
- Luis Garcia
- Ha-Seong Kim
- Manny Machado
- Nick Martinez
- Evan Mendoza
- Juan Soto
- Brett Sullivan
- Julio Teheran
Phillies
- Jose Alvarado
- Erubiel Armenta
- Malik Binns
- Jaydenn Estanista
- Vito Friscia
- Brian Marconi
- J.T. Realmuto
- Kyle Schwarber
- Noah Skirrow
- Gregory Soto
- Garrett Stubbs
- Ranger Suarez
- Trea Turner
- Taijuan Walker
- Rixon Wingrove
Pirates
- David Bednar
- Tsung-Che Cheng
- Roansy Contreras
- Alessandro Ercolani
- Santiago Florez
- Jarlin Garcia
- Antwone Kelly
- Josh Palacios
- Jeffrey Passantino
- Tahnaj Thomas
- Duane Underwood Jr.
- Chavez Young
- Rob Zastryzny
Rangers
Rays
- Jason Adam
- Jonathan Aranda
- Randy Arozarena
- Christian Bethancourt
- Trevor Brigden
- Wander Franco
- Andrew Gross
- Joe LaSorsa
- Francisco Mejia
- Isaac Paredes
- Harold Ramirez
- Graham Spraker
Red Sox
- Jorge Alfaro
- Richard Bleier
- Rafael Devers
- Jarren Duran
- Ian Gibaut
- Rio Gomez
- Norwith Gudino
- Enrique Hernandez
- Nick Pivetta
- Henry Ramos
- Alex Verdugo
- Masataka Yoshida
Reds
- Donovan Benoit
- Silvino Bracho
- Luis Cessa
- Fernando Cruz
- Alexis Diaz
- Arij Fransen
- Kyle Glogoski
- Tayron Guerrero
- Evan Kravetz
- Nicolo Pinazzi
- Reiver Sanmartin
- Vin Timpanelli
Rockies
- Daniel Bard
- Jake Bird
- Yonathan Daza
- Elias Diaz
- Kyle Freeland
- Justin Lawrence
- German Marquez
- Michael Petersen
- Alan Trejo
Royals
- Max Castillo
- Robbie Glendinning
- Carlos Hernandez
- Nicky Lopez
- MJ Melendez
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Brady Singer
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Angel Zerpa
Tigers
- Javier Baez
- Miguel Cabrera
- Chavez Fernander
- Andy Ibanez
- Jack O’Loughlin
- Jacob Robson
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Jonathan Schoop
- John Valente
Twins
- Jose De Leon
- Edouard Julien
- Jorge Lopez
- Pablo Lopez
- Carlos Luna
- Jose Miranda
- Jovani Moran
- Emilio Pagan
- Christian Vazquez
White Sox
- Tim Anderson
- Kendall Graveman
- Eloy Jimenez
- Lance Lynn
- Yoan Moncada
- Nicholas Padilla
- Luis Robert
- Jose Ruiz
Yankees