Trevor Story “Confused” By Lack Of Trade
Rockies’ shortstop Trevor Story is “confused” after not being traded before today’s deadline, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. “I don’t have really anything good to say about the situation and how it unfolded,” Story says.
Story has been often mentioned as a logical trade candidate, given the fact that he’s a pending free agent on a non-competitive club. Even here at MLBTR, Steve Adams placed Story 7th on a list of top trade candidates just a few days ago, noting that it was unlikely the club would hang onto him, though admitting there was a slight chance of the club hanging onto the slugger and making him a qualifying offer at year’s end. That appears to have been the thinking in the Colorado front office.
“With what we were offered, we thought the (competitive balance) pick was better suited for us and we could have Trevor on our team for another two months,” general manager Bill Schmidt said. The White Sox, Rays and Blue Jays apparently made offers that didn’t match up to that draft pick, at least in the estimation of Schmidt and his team.
Perhaps the offer were somewhat dulled by Story’s subpar season. His wRC+ of 84 is well below his marks over the past three years, which all ranged between 117 and 128. But given that his strikeout and walk rates are in line with previous years and his BABIP is way down, some teams surely could have believed that regression was due. Regardless, Story will remain a Rockie for two more months, with his seeming frustration with management not boding well for their chances at re-signing him in free agency.
Jon Gray, another impending free agent, also remains a member of the club after the deadline. Saunders notes that Gray “wants to stay in Colorado” and the club has “begun preliminary talks about a new contract with him.” It will be interesting to see if such talks are able to come to fruition. Gray is having an excellent season, with his current 3.67 ERA tied for a career-best, especially impressive in the thin Colorado air. Normally, it might be tough to get a player to sign an extension when he’s so close to free agency and enjoying a solid platform year, although Gray has quite recently expressed interest in remaining in Colorado long term.
That desire comes despite the fact that the Rockies are at least 15 games behind each of the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. All three of those teams seem to have enough talent and resources to be well-positioned to continue playing at high levels into the future. With the already-struggling Rockies poised to lose a talent like Story, and perhaps Gray as well, it’s hard to envision them gaining so much ground on their competitors.
Rockies Reportedly Have “No Plans” To Trade Jon Gray, Daniel Bard
7:15am: The Rockies “have no plans” to trade either Gray or closer Daniel Bard today, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
As a 36-year-old closer on a fourth-place team, Bard looked like nearly as much of a slam-dunk trade candidate as Gray and Story. He’s controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration, but relievers are inherently volatile, and the Rockies can’t be reasonably expected to contend for a division title next year.
Bard has allowed three runs in his past two outings, which has bumped his ERA up a bit, but he’s still sitting at a respectable 4.32 mark with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.9 percent walk rate. Given his 97.8 mph average fastball, his ability to miss bats and his affordable $2.925MM salary, one would imagine there’d be some decent interest in Bard.
6:37am: Despite standing out as one of the most logical trade candidates on the market, Jon Gray remains in Colorado with nine hours until this afternoon’s trade deadline. There are, of course, many likely trade candidates who’ve yet to change hands, but it seems that as is the case with Trevor Story, the Rockies are at least considering hanging onto Gray.
The right-hander himself tells Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette that he and the team have had preliminary talks about an extension, adding that he hopes to stay with the Rockies. Meanwhile, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Rockies have also considered hanging onto Gray and making him a qualifying offer at season’s end.
Gray, 29, was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft and stands out as one of the best homegrown arms the Rockies have developed. He’s in the midst of a the third sub-4.00 ERA of his season, pitching to a 3.67 ERA with a 22 percent strikeout rate, a 9.7 percent walk rate and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and walk rates are a ways off from his career-best marks, and Gray’s 94.8 mph average heater is down a tick from his career-high 96.1 mph in 2017. But Gray is also limiting hard contact at the best rates of his career and has been a generally durable starter for the Rox this season. He’s playing on a $6MM salary in his final season of club control before free agency.
Given all that and the Rockies’ obvious lack of playoff chances, there ought to be many teams trying to acquire Gray — and it sounds as though the interest is there. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the Blue Jays, Padres, Mariners, White Sox and Mets are among the clubs that have scouted and shown varying levels of interest in Gray.
With Max Scherzer likely L.A.-bound and Jose Berrios now looking increasingly likely to be dealt, the floodgates on the remaining available starting pitchers could open in the hours leading up to the deadline. Gray, Michael Pineda, Zach Davies, Kyle Gibson and Merrill Kelly all seem like strong candidates to be dealt, and the removal of the market’s top two names — if Berrios is moved early in the day — should give the teams that miss out ample time to pivot to secondary targets.
Of course, that again assumes that Gray will be moved at all. The Rockies march to the beat of their own drum, to say the least. Perhaps the notion of keeping Gray and/or Story is mere posturing in an effort to extract a larger return, but the Rockies have resisted rebuilding moves for years despite rarely contending. Manager Bud Black said earlier this month they’ve already informed top starter German Marquez that he won’t be traded, which seems to suggest they believe a rapid turnaround is possible within the next couple years. So far, the Rockies’ lone move has been to trade Mychal Givens to the Reds.
Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets
Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline. This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”
That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego. Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight. It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.
On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries. Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.” The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda. San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.
Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season. Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season. Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state. Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.
The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season. A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.
A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting. Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.
Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar. Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started. The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip. Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.
Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason. With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons. Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.
What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air. The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions. In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.
Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two. The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.
Latest On Jon Gray, German Marquez
Rockies starter Jon Gray is scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season. With Colorado having virtually no chance to make the playoffs, that makes the 29-year-old one of the more logical trade candidates in baseball. Indeed, MLBTR’s Steve Adams ranked Gray the #1 trade candidate in the sport last week.
Gray changing teams next month still seems the most likely outcome, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports the Rockies are expected to offer him a contract extension before pulling the trigger on any trade. Of course, the club offering Gray an extension doesn’t guarantee he’d stick around. The Rockies don’t look particularly close to contention, and the CAA Sports client may prefer to field offers from more immediate contenders this winter instead.
As Rosenthal notes, Colorado’s hitter-friendly home park could also work against them in convincing a pitcher to voluntarily stick around for the long haul. Gray, though, is the rare arm who hasn’t seemed too affected by Coors Field. His career home/road splits are nearly identical, and Gray’s actually been far better at home this season (3.25 ERA, .167/.264/.314 opponents’ slash line) than on the road (6.75 ERA, .350/.400/.538 line).
Extensions for starting pitchers this close to free agency are atypical, as one might expect. Over the past four seasons, only two starters with five-plus years of MLB service time signed extensions. Righty Sonny Gray inked a three-year, $30.5MM guarantee with the Reds in 2019. That was part of an agreement to facilitate a trade from the Yankees to Cincinnati, though, so it’s not a perfectly analogous situation. Righty Lance McCullers Jr., meanwhile, signed a five-year, $85MM deal with the Astros in March. McCullers is nearly two full years younger than Jon Gray and has a better career track record (even after adjusting for park), so the Rockies hurler would have a hard time commanding that kind of commitment.
Gray’s contractual status makes his situation one of the more pressing for interim general manager Bill Schmidt. He’s not the only Colorado starter drawing attention from rival clubs, though. Rosenthal reports the Rockies are also receiving interest in starter Germán Márquez. That’s certainly no surprise. Márquez has worked to a 3.91 ERA in 71 1/3 frames this season- a strong mark for a pitcher in Coors Field- with quality strikeout and ground ball rates (24.7% and 52.7%, respectively). Márquez has walked quite a few batters this year (11.2%), but he was one of the game’s better strike throwers between 2017-20.
In addition to his strong track record of performance, Márquez is controllable through 2024 under the terms of an extension he signed in April 2019. He’s making just $7.5MM this year, followed by respective salaries of $11MM and $15MM in 2022 and 2023. The deal contains a $16MM club option (with a $2.5MM buyout) for 2024. Given that long-term control, the Rockies needn’t move Márquez this summer, and Rosenthal suggests they’re unlikely to do so.
Between Gray, Márquez and impending free agent shortstop Trevor Story (who doesn’t seem likely to re-sign), the Rockies have a trio of players who should continue to generate plenty of calls from contenders. There’s a particular sense of urgency with regards to Gray and Story, as the organization seeks the core of the next contending club in Colorado.
Pitcher Notes: Gray, Kikuchi, Peralta, Brasier
Rockies right-hander Jon Gray went on the injured list yesterday with the ominous-sounding diagnosis of elbow soreness/forearm tightness in his throwing arm. Fortunately, an MRI revealed no structural damage, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). That’s fantastic news for player and team alike. Gray is scheduled to reach free agency at the end of this season, so his finishing the year healthy is of upmost importance as he looks to market himself around the league. His contractual status, coupled with the Rockies 23-36 record, also makes him one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates in advance of the July 30 deadline.
A few more notes on pitchers around the league:
- Mariners left-hander Yusei Kikuchi left last night’s start against the Angels in the fifth inning after being struck on the right knee by a David Fletcher line drive. The team announced he’s been diagnosed with a knee contusion/bone bruise. Kikuchi, who had to be helped off the field, was able to put some weight on his leg after the game manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Corey Brock of the Athletic). Servais suggested he didn’t believe there was any sort of fracture, and Kikuchi’s feeling “better than expected” today (via Brock), although it’s still possible he’ll need an IL stint. Kikuchi has been the Mariners best starter this year, tossing 66 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA/3.64 SIERA ball.
- Brewers righty Freddy Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 25-year-old is among the league’s top fifteen hurlers in ERA (2.25), SIERA (3.11), and strikeout/walk rate differential (26.1 percentage points). Will Sammon of the Athletic looks back at the December 2015 trade that sent Peralta, then a low minors pitching prospect, from the Mariners to the Brewers as part of the return for first baseman Adam Lind. Matt Kleine, now the Brewers vice president of baseball operations, initially spotted Peralta on the Mariners back fields in 2013. Intrigued by his fastball shape and athleticism, Kleine pushed the Milwaukee higher-ups to bring in Peralta via trade, and the opportunity presented itself when the Mariners expressed interest in Lind. Sammon breaks down Peralta’s continued progression and evolution (including the development of a slider and changeup to diversify his once fastball-heavy repertoire) in a piece that’ll be of interest to Brewers fans.
- Red Sox reliever Ryan Brasier, who has been rehabbing from a left calf strain, was hospitalized after being struck in the head by a comebacker during a simulated game in Fort Myers this week. He has since been released, although Brasier suffered a concussion and an ear laceration, notes Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That will halt his rehab process for the time being, although it’s certainly a relief he escaped more serious injury after the scary incident.
Rockies Place Jon Gray, Jordan Sheffield On 10-Day Injured List
3:31PM: Gray has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right flexor strain, the Rockies announced. Right-hander Jordan Sheffield is also headed to the 10-day injured list due to a right lat strain. Left-handers Ben Bowden and Lucas Gilbreath have been called up from Triple-A to fill the roster spots.
8:29AM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray left Friday’s game after 2 1/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black described as right elbow soreness and tightness in Gray’s forearm. Gray was charged with five runs in the abbreviated outing, with the injury clearly a factor.
“When I spoke to Jon, he indicated that his soreness impacted his pitching,” Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters. “I don’t think he felt it on every pitch. It started to tighten as the game went on. That’s when we noticed the variability with his pitch-making and with his mannerisms.”
In the bigger picture, any sort of forearm or elbow issue is naturally a major concern for a pitcher. It seems likely that Gray will miss at least one start for precautionary reasons if nothing else due to the nature of the injury, and a trip to the injured list shouldn’t be ruled out until Gray undergoes further testing and medical examination. Gray has generally avoided any major arm injuries over the years, apart from the shoulder inflammation that prematurely ended his 2020 season in early September.
While it’s too early to ring the alarm on a potential Tommy John surgery, an injury that sidelines Gray for any noteworthy amount of time will have some ramifications on both his future and the Rockies’ trade deadline plans. In the opinion of MLBTR’s Steve Adams, Gray is nothing less than the top trade candidate in baseball at this point in the season, owing to Colorado’s spot near the bottom of the standings, Gray’s decent numbers through 63 innings, and the righty’s impending free agent status.
An IL stint of anything more than a month or so would throw a wrench into Gray’s trade value, or perhaps prevent a deal altogether if teams are concerned about Gray’s arm. Similarly, Gray’s ability to score a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter could be hampered, perhaps to the point where he’d have to settle for a one-year deal.
Gray had been inconsistent in the three starts prior to last night’s injury-shortened appearance, and for the season, he has posted a 4.29 ERA/4.72 SIERA over 63 innings. His 18.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both below average, but Gray’s overall Statcast outlook is not bad, and his 52.4% grounder rate is a career high. Though Gray has been much better at Coors Field than on the road this season, he has some value as a potential change-of-scenery candidate who could perhaps thrive in a more normal pitching environment than the thin air of Colorado.
Latest On Rockies, Jon Gray
Jon Gray has stood out as a potential trade candidate for months, and the Rockies indeed “began putting feelers out to teams regarding Gray during Spring Training,” according to FanSided’s Robert Murray. Gray is eligible for free agency after the season and has only improved his trade value by posting a 2.93 ERA/4.19 SIERA over 46 innings so far into the 2021 campaign.
There isn’t any sense that a deal could be particularly close, since teams usually don’t make major trades this far in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. In addition, the Rockies’ front office has also undergone a sea change since Spring Training, as Bill Schmidt took over as interim general manager earlier this month after Jeff Bridich resigned his GM post in late April.
While the GM change could make a Gray trade (and perhaps a wider-scale rebuild for the Rockies) more likely, it would count as a surprise if the right-hander was moved quite so early in the season. That said, as Murray notes, an aggressive team could benefit by landing Gray now, and Colorado would land a larger trade package if Gray was a “rental player” for more than just the last two months of the regular season.
Gray has rebounded well from a rough 2020 season that saw him spend a lot of time on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, and post a 6.69 ERA over 39 innings. Looking at his 2021 numbers, that difference between his ERA and SIERA indicates that Gray’s performance hasn’t exactly been ace-level, as his strikeout (22.9%) and walk (9.9%) rates are both below average and he has enjoyed a .250 BABIP. On the plus side, Gray has done a very good job of limiting hard contact, and his usually-solid grounder rate has risen to a new career best of 53.7%.
Gray has pretty even home/road splits over his career, which is no mean feat considering his home ballpark is Coors Field. Interestingly, Gray has generally pitched better at home than on the road in recent years, including a startling split of a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings at Coors Field this season as opposed to a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings on the road. Granted, these are very small sample sizes, but Gray’s ability to pitch effectively in the thin air of Denver makes it intriguing to see how he would fare in a more normalized pitching environment.
Some executives, in fact, believe the Rockies should try to capitalize on Gray’s success at Coors Field and try to sign him to a contract extension. Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post also thinks extension talks are a possibility, but with an “emphasis on ‘attempt,’ ” meaning that the likelihood of Gray signing a new deal seems pretty low, this close to his trip to the free agent market. Saunders ultimately believes Gray will be traded elsewhere prior to July 30.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21
The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.
We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
- Rockies outfielder Raimel Tapia avoided arbitration with a $1.95MM deal, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The team also reached an agreement for $805K with reliever Robert Stephenson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Tigers have deals with infielder Jeimer Candelario ($2.85MM), outfielder JaCoby Jones ($2.65MM) and righty Jose Cisnero ($970K), Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays.
- The Yankees and reliever Chad Green settled for $2.15MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
- The Marlins and lefty Richard Bleier have a deal for $1.425MM, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
- The Dodgers reached a $3.6MM settlement with lefty Julio Urias, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Angels announced a deal with righty Dylan Bundy for $8.325MM.
- The Tigers and southpaw Matthew Boyd have settled for $6.5MM, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets.
- The Yankees have deals with catcher Gary Sanchez ($6.35MM), first baseman Luke Voit ($4.7MM), third baseman Gio Urshela ($4.65MM), shortstop Gleyber Torres ($4MM) and outfielder Clint Frazier ($2.1MM), per Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
- The Rays and outfielder Manuel Margot avoided arbitration with a $3.4MM agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Padres and outfielder Tommy Pham have a deal for $8.9MM, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Reliever Dan Altavilla settled for $850K, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets.
- The Angels and righty Felix Pena have come to terms for $1.1MM, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
- The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers have reached a $4.575MM agreement, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
- The Mets and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have come to a $4.7MM agreement, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets.
- The Reds and righty Luis Castillo have settled for $4.2MM, Robert Murray of FanSided relays.
- The Rays reached a $2.25MM agreement with infielder Joey Wendle and a $1.175MM settlement with righty Yonny Chirinos, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cardinals and flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks have an agreement for $862,500, according to Heyman.
- The White Sox and ace Lucas Giolito avoided arbitration with a $4.15MM agreement, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
- The Pirates and righty Joe Musgrove have reached an agreement for $4.45MM, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. They also made deals with second/baseman outfielder Adam Frazier ($4.3MM), third baseman Colin Moran ($2.8MM) righty Chad Kuhl ($2.13MM) and lefty Steven Brault ($2.05MM), per reports from Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Adam Berry of MLB.com.
- Hard-throwing right-hander Reyes Moronta agreed to a $695K deal with the Giants after missing the 2020 season due to shoulder surgery, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- The Tigers agreed to a $2.1MM deal with infielder Niko Goodrum, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided. They also inked lefty Daniel Norris for a $3.475MM salary, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Pirates agreed to a $1.3MM deal with catcher Jacob Stallings and a $1.1MM deal with righty Chris Stratton, per Robert Murray of Fansided (Twitter links).
- Athletics right-hander Lou Trivino agreed to a $912,500 salary for the 2021 season, tweets Robert Murray of Fansided.
- Right-hander Richard Rodriguez and the Pirates agreed to a $1.7MM deal, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Catcher Jorge Alfaro and the Marlins agreed to a $2.05MM deal, tweets Craig Mish of SportsGrid.
- The Reds agreed to a $2.2MM deal with right-hander Tyler Mahle, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray. Cincinnati also signed lefty Amir Garrett for $1.5MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.
- The Indians agreed to a $2.4MM deal with newly acquired shortstop Amed Rosario and a $975K deal with righty Phil Maton, tweets Zack Meisel of The Athletic.
- The Tigers and righty Buck Farmer settled at $1.85MM, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Marlins agreed to a $1.9MM deal with right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.
Trade Candidate: Jon Gray
Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.
That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.
Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.
Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.
Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.
After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.
There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.
NL Notes: Flaherty, Aguilar, Gray
There’s no doubt Jack Flaherty will be tendered a contract in his first season of arbitration eligibility, though Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals have yet to speak with Flaherty about a long-term extension. With Flaherty under team control through 2023, there isn’t necessarily any rush to work out a multi-year deal, so the Cards might prefer to wait a little longer before exploring a larger deal (especially if the team is still trying to figure out its payroll situation after the revenue losses of the 2020 season).
That said, an extension would also give both Flaherty and the Cardinals some financial certainty through what could be a tumultuous few years, given both the pandemic and the expiration of baseball’s collective bargaining agreement following the 2021 season. Signing young players to long-term deals has been a key tactic of John Mozeliak’s tenure in the St. Louis front office, so one would imagine an extension would be broached with Flaherty at some point this offseason, perhaps during Spring Training. It’s worth noting that past negotiations between Flaherty and the Cardinals over the relatively simpler matter of his pre-arbitration contracts also haven’t been straight-forward, as the Cardinals have renewed the right-hander’s contracts in each of the last two seasons.
More from the National League…
- Jon Gray is a potential non-tender candidate following a rough 2020 season, though MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) reports that the Rockies are “expected” to tender Gray a deal in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. Gray posted a 6.69 ERA over eight starts before being shut down due to shoulder inflammation in early September, ending a season that saw him post some ugly Statcast metrics as well as career worsts in K/9 (5.1), K/BB rate (2.00), grounder rate (36.7%), and fastball velocity (94mph). While there was some misfortune involved in Gray’s struggles (such as a stunningly low 54.4% strand rate), the season represented another low point of an up-and-down career for the former third overall pick. Gray is projected for a salary in the range of $5.9MM in 2021, which the Rockies may feel is an acceptable price tag to see if Gray can get himself on track next year.
- “There have been many clubs with interest” in trading for Marlins first baseman Jesus Aguilar, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish writes. It isn’t known whether any of those teams might make the Fish a big offer prior to today’s non-tender deadline, though Mish feels the Marlins will indeed tender Aguilar a contract despite the uncertainty about whether or not the DH will be part of National League baseball next season. Aguilar started 19 games as a designated hitter in 2020, and was a first baseman in his 31 other starts. “Jesus returning without the DH is not optimal, but possible” for Miami, Mish writes, and of course trades could still be explored throughout the offseason.