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Archives for April 2020

Revisiting Dave Dombrowski’s Red Sox Trades

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Dave Dombrowski’s ousting as general manager of the Tigers back in 2015 was a stunner throughout the baseball world. Just days after orchestrating a rare deadline sell-off for the AL Central powerhouse — David Price and Yoenis Cespedes were both shipped out in deals that netted Matthew Boyd and Michael Fulmer, respectively — Dombrowski was cut loose.

Most expected that Dombrowski, one of MLB’s most respected front-office figures, would another job in short order… but probably not as quickly as he ultimately did. Barely two weeks after being dismissed in Detroit, Dombrowski was named president of baseball operations for the Red Sox — a move that prompted general manager Ben Cherington to step down less than two years after his club had won a World Series.

As it turned out, Dombrowski’s tenure in Boston would closely mirror that of Cherington’s; his time in charge was relatively brief, and he was gone not long after winning a World Series. Less than year after capturing a championship in 2018, Dombrowski got the boot.

Let’s take a look back at Dealin’ Dave’s trade history in Boston…

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

—

We’ll revisit Dombrowski’s trade histories with other clubs in separate posts, but the question for now: How do MLBTR readers grade Dombrowski’s work as the Red Sox’ baseball ops boss? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Interested in how other GMs hold up under this exercise? We’ve covered Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies’ GM Matt Klentak, Dodgers’ president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and Rays GM Erik Neander as well.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos On Hamels, Third Base, Bullpen

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As part of the team’s “Opener At Home” special on Friday evening, Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos spent nearly 20 minutes chatting with broadcaster Chip Caray about the current state of baseball, the Braves’ roster and some of his offseason dealings (YouTube link).

First and foremost, the GM made clear that southpaw Cole Hamels, signed to a one-year, $18MM contract this winter but slowed by shoulder troubles, is now pain-free. “Under normal circumstances, he would’ve been going right now to get ready to start to prepare,” Anthopoulos said of the 36-year-old, implying that Hamels could’ve been embarking on a rehab assignment. Given that update, it seems reasonable to expect that Hamels will be a full strength if play is indeed able to resume this season.

Of course, that also have a domino effect on the rest of the pitching staff. Per Anthopoulos, two of Kyle Wright, Sean Newcomb and Felix Hernandez would’ve opened the season in the rotation. All three were throwing well in Spring Training, and a decision on those rotation spots was coming “down to the wire,” with the final couple of weeks set to prove pivotal in making that decision. Prior to the spring shutdown, here’s how each of the three had fared:

  • Hernandez: 13 2/3 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 14 K (1.98 ERA)
  • Wright: 13 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 15 K (2.03 ERA)
  • Newcomb: 9 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 2BB, 11 K (2.00 ERA)

A healthy Hamels would likely take one of the rotation spots for which that trio is vying, although depending on how a new schedule is constructed — frequent doubleheaders and fewer off-days have been oft-speculated upon — it’s possible that a sixth starter could be needed. At the very least, one would imagine that with expanded rosters early in the season, it’s possible there could be a place for all three.

Also discussed was the Braves’ third base battle: a competition known to be comprised of slugger Austin Riley and the versatile Johan Camargo. Neither player was going to fill the Josh Donaldson-sized void in the lineup, but both had their share of promise. Riley was a consensus top 100 prospect entering the 2019 season and had a strong debut before tailing off over the final few months. Camargo enjoyed an excellent season in 2018 before a step back last year. But while the debate had long centered around which of the two would make the Opening Day roster, Anthopoulos indicated that it was no longer an either-or-scenario:

Camargo and Riley were playing unbelievably well. We hadn’t made a decision yet. We had started to talk — the fact that with the minor league season scheduled to start on April 9, and we were going to start the 26th of March — we had started to talk about just carrying both. There was no reason, really, to leave them down in Florida. They both had been playing well enough to make the team. If it got to a point where we thought one of them needed to play each day, that would’ve been a conversation we could’ve had right when Gwinnett was going to open the season around [April 9], we could’ve sent a player down at that point.

It still seems likely that one of the two would’ve been tabbed for the lion’s share of playing time, but the fact that both were possibly in line for an Opening Day gig is of note. That’s particularly true given not only the likelihood of expanded rosters but also because it’s not yet certain just how (or if) the minor league season will be able to come together. With minor league play even more uncertain than big league play, it’s all the likelier that the Braves would carry both players on the roster to ensure they could get both could get in-game reps — even if it’s on less than an everyday basis.

Asked about his aggressive bullpen makeover — the Braves acquired Shane Greene, Chris Martin and Mark Melancon last July before re-signing Martin and Darren O’Day and signing Will Smith — Anthopoulos was candid about how his moves were shaped by his relievers’ struggles early in 2019.

I think a lot of it was just not having to live through the experience that we had in 2019. Obviously we had a great year — we won more games than we did in 2018, we had a great team — but our bullpen was up and down the entire year. … Having to give up a ton of young assets at the trade deadline is not something we want to have to go through again.

The Braves, Anthopoulos explained, had sought to make upgrades in the previous offseason but didn’t find deals to their liking either in free agency or on the trade market. But the poor first half and the postseason struggles — the GM pointed out that the Braves blew late leads in two of their first four NLDS losses prior to the Game 5 blowout — pushed the Braves to take an “aggressive” approach to the bullpen. Atlanta indeed spent a combined $56.25MM on Smith, Martin and O’Day this winter — plus the $14MM of the Melancon deal they took on at the deadline and a $6.25MM arbitration salary for Greene — in hopes of creating a deeper bullpen that could be called on to hold leads late in games but also in the middle innings.

Assuming the season is able to resume, the Braves will be considered clear postseason favorites, and the depth to which Anthopoulos makes frequent reference in his chat with Caray will be all the more vital if a condensed schedule is to be played. If nothing else, it’s a welcome distraction to hear a top-ranking executive talk about roster construction, offseason maneuverings and challenges/advantages that’ll be relevant the next time his team takes the field.

AL East Notes: Darwinzon, Cone, Armstrong

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Although he enjoyed a strong finish to the 2019 season in the bullpen, Red Sox lefty Darwinzon Hernandez tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he still prefers to work as a starter in the long run. The 23-year-old emphasized that being on the team, whether as a starter or reliever, is still his top priority and voiced a willingness to pitch in any role the club fits. Notably, though, Abraham suggests that while former skipper Alex Cora believed Hernandez is best-suited for a short relief role, new manager Ron Roenicke agrees with Hernandez that he should be in the mix for a starting job. “You have to consider it,” Roenicke told Abraham. “He’s still a young pitcher, and there’s a lot to work with.”

Hernandez punched out nearly 39 percent of the hitters he faced in the Majors last year (57 in 30 1/3 innings) but also issued 16 walks in that time. Control has been a longstanding issue for the big lefty, evidenced by a career 5.5 BB/9 mark in the minors. Still, the Red Sox’ rotation is anything but settled at the moment, with Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, reclamation project Martin Perez and journeyman Ryan Weber occupying the top four spots. Certainly, there’s room to take a look to see if Hernandez can finally rein in his control and work as an effective big league starter.

More from the AL East to kick off the week…

  • It’s already known that the Yankees interviewed former Cy Young winner and current YES Network Analyst David Cone for their pitching coach vacancy before hiring Matt Blake last November, but Cone talked more about the interview process and another potential role that was discussed in an interview with the New Jersey Star-Ledger’s Bob Klapisch. The pitching coach talks were “more exploratory” in nature, per Cone, but the two sides discussed a role in which he’d serve as a liaison between the club’s pitchers and the analytics department — utilizing his experience as a pitcher to help bridge the gap between data from the front office and implementation in a game setting. That role didn’t come together, clearly, but it’s nevertheless interesting both in a “what might’ve been” lens in addition to looking down the line at what could yet be in store if the two sides rekindle talks.
  • Orioles righty Shawn Armstrong was considered a “sure thing” to make the bullpen heading into camp, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, and he did nothing to change that thinking with six shutout frames and 11 punchouts. Expanded rosters early in a potentially delayed season would only make it easier for the club to hang onto the right-hander. The 29-year-old Armstrong went from Cleveland to Seattle to Baltimore over the past couple of seasons but only this past year got a full look in the Majors. He struggled to an ERA just north of 5.00 in Baltimore but also averaged 9.9 K/9 with an overall 24.2 percent strikeout rate and elite spin on his four-seamer. His 2018 work with Seattle — 14 2/3 innings, 1.23 ERA, 15-to-3 K/BB ratio — lends some reason for optimism as well. Armstrong is out of minor league options, so the Orioles would have to run him through waivers if they wanted to send him down to Triple-A Norfolk.

How The Delayed Season Impacts The Indians

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All 30 big league clubs are waiting to see whether a 2020 season will be played at all, but assuming a season is able to take place in some capacity, the prolonged delay will impact some clubs more than others. We’ve already examined the potential effects for the Yankees, Angels, Phillies, Athletics and Twins. Today, we’ll turn to Minnesota’s likeliest challenger in the AL Central, the Indians.

For every roster, the hiatus most obviously affects injured players. The delay gives currently them more time to recover, and Cleveland has a few who fit that bill. That’s most notable for a pair of right-handed starters.

Veteran Carlos Carrasco had been nagged by inflammation in his throwing elbow during Spring Training. While Carrasco fortunately avoided structural damage, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti had cast doubt on his chances of being ready for a March 26 Opening Day. Cleveland hadn’t provided a firm timetable for his projected return, but the issue seemed relatively minor. Presumably, the 33-year-old would now have a much better chance at being in the season-opening rotation if baseball resumes.

That’s also true of staff ace Mike Clevinger. The hard-throwing righty underwent knee surgery in mid-February, which was expected to sideline him for six to eight weeks. Nothing has trickled out on the status of his recovery since, but we’re in the middle of that timetable now. Assuming Clevinger’s progressing as had been expected, he seems likely to be ready to ramp back up if the season gets going.

It’s even possible we see hard-throwing righty Emmanuel Clase in the season-opening bullpen. That wasn’t true prior to the shutdown when Clase went down for eight to twelve weeks at the end of February with a strain in his back. Owner of a 100 MPH cutter, Clase was the primary return from the Rangers in the Corey Kluber deal (along with getting Kluber’s $17.5MM salary off the books). If healthy, he’ll likely be an integral part of Terry Francona’s relief unit.

That’s a trio of potential impact arms who could see a greater portion of the season for Cleveland than had been initially anticipated. And simply by introducing more randomness, a shortened season probably increases their odds of upsetting the reigning division champs in Minneapolis. Yet the threat of a cancelled season looms as large for the Indians as any team in MLB.

Enter Francisco Lindor. The face of the franchise is two years from free agency. If it never becomes possible for MLB to return in 2020, Lindor will pick up another year of service time by virtue of having logged a full year in 2019. Extension talks, which have never seemed all that likely to come to fruition, were tabled even before the MLB moratorium. A cancelled season would be one fewer year for Cleveland fans to ’enjoy’ the presence of one of the game’s most talented, charismatic players. Regardless of whether a season is played, Lindor’s name would surely be bandied around in trade rumors next offseason unless an extension is reached. Cleveland fans won’t want to hear it, but there’s now seemingly a possibility he’s played his final home game there.

Fortunately, much of the roster is under team control for 2021. If the 2020 season is ultimately cancelled, the Cleveland front office could bring back the entire starting rotation and eight members of the starting lineup, as projected by Roster Resource. (Only second baseman César Hernández, an offseason signee, isn’t controlled beyond this season). Yet Lindor’s status already looms large for the franchise; if the season were wiped away, it’d only become more pressing.

Rebound Candidate: Blake Snell

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Right off the top, I’ll acknowledge the term ’rebound candidate’ is a bit strong to describe Blake Snell. Even looking only at bottom line results, Snell’s 2019 season was serviceable. He logged a 4.29 ERA in 107 innings over 23 starts; Baseball Reference, which emphasizes run prevention in its WAR calculation, pegged Snell at a decent 1.4 wins above replacement.

There’s no question, though, it marked a step back from his otherworldly 2018 results. That year, he tossed 180.2 innings while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine. That league-best run prevention translated to 7.1 bWAR. Looking solely at the results, it’d be easy to conclude Snell took a massive step back last season.

Every team now looks beyond a pitcher’s mere run prevention (or win-loss record, where Snell also regressed dramatically). Looking deeper, the southpaw looked a lot like his 2018 self last year. His average fastball velocity dropped about half a mile per hour, but he still sat 95.89 MPH, per Brooks Baseball. No other left-handed starter threw harder. His spin rates across the board remained consistent 2018 to 2019, as did his arm slot. On the whole, Snell was working with the same raw stuff that enabled his 2018 dominance.

Admittedly, retaining his stuff from the year prior doesn’t automatically mean he was as effective. But on a micro level, Snell looked every bit as dominant. His 2019 strikeout rate (33.3%) was up nearly two percentage points from the year before (31.6%). His walk rate (9.1%) in each year was identical. Most importantly, Snell’s 17.7% swinging strike rate ranked #1 among all MLB starters (minimum 60 innings). The names just behind him are a who’s who of the game’s top arms: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo, Jacob deGrom.

Nor was this a case of a pitcher with dominant strike zone metrics who got bombed when hitters did make contact. Snell’s 88 MPH average exit velocity and 32% hard contact rate allowed were league average, generally the same level of contact quality he surrendered in 2018. Snell’s opponents’ BABIP rose over .100 points between 2018-19, but there’s nothing to suggest he got any more hittable. (He did surrender a few more line drives last season, but large changes in line drive rate don’t tend to stick year to year). It just seems that more batted balls dropped in; if even a league average amount of those batted balls find gloves moving forward, he should again be one of the league’s toughest pitchers to score against.

If a 2020 season is ultimately played, Snell looks more than capable of contending for another Cy Young. He had a precautionary cortisone shot in his throwing elbow in February, but at last check he was feeling ’fine.’ Assuming the layoff allows him to reemerge at full health, Snell looks on track to reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best pitchers.

GM Trade History: Rays’ Erik Neander

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The small market Rays have long been proactive on the trade market. That’s been the club’s preferred method of fielding competitive rosters while maintaining one of the league’s lowest payrolls. That can sometimes require moves unpopular with the fan base, although like any team, the Rays have had their fair share of wins (and a few losses).

Since the Rays promoted Erik Neander to GM in 2016, the front office has been active as ever on the trade market. We’ll look back at the GM’s trade history (excluding the most minor swaps) over that time, with a full breakdown of each at the included links. With two of Neander’s former top lieutenants now running AL rivals (Chaim Bloom in Boston and James Click in Houston), it’ll be fascinating to see how the club proceeds once they’re again able to make transactions.

2016-2017 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-2018 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-2019 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-2020 Offseason

 

How would you grade Neander’s wheeling and dealing as the Rays’ baseball ops head? (Link to poll for mobile app users)

 

Interested in how other GMs hold up under this exercise? We’ve covered Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies’ GM Matt Klentak, and Dodgers’ GM Andrew Friedman as well.

Three Diamondbacks Minority Owners Sue Managing General Partner

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A trio of Diamondbacks minority owners have filed a lawsuit against the franchise’s managing general partner Ken Kendrick, according to a report from Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. The plaintiffs allege that Kendrick illegally forced them to either increase their stake in the Diamondbacks or have their shares bought out by the team. Kendrick argues that he and the team were within their rights to issue such an ultimatum.

The dispute stems from a letter in which Kendrick instructed minority owners with stakes of less than one percent to either increase their share to at least that threshold or to sell their shares back to the team at a price determined by a third-party appraiser. That decision was motivated by the Diamondbacks’ desire to “streamline its ownership group” and decrease the number of owners with minimal stakes in the franchise.

That initiative was backed by MLB, which “prefers” that teams maintain smaller ownership groups to facilitate more efficient governance. However, the suing owners argue that since the idea originated with the Diamondbacks and was brought to MLB for approval, the minority owners maintain their status as eligible holders.

For what it’s worth, Buchanan went on to say via Twitter that the lawsuit is in no way related to the team’s ballpark concerns, which have prompted rumors about relocation. Since the three stakeholders involved in the lawsuit all own less than one percent of the team, Buchanan says, “they have no governing power over it,” and therefore the franchise could relocate with them on board. Kendrick and team president and CEO Derrick Hall spoke in February about the team’s stadium situation, hinting at a persisting hope to construct a new ballpark (be it in Arizona or elsewhere). The team’s stadium lease with Maricopa County would allow the D-Backs to leave Chase Field as early as 2022.

It’ll be a story worth following as the suit progresses, and we’ll be sure to provide updates for you as they come.

NL Notes: Crawford, Kim, Mikolas, Cecil, Johnson

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Brandon Crawford gave the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea a rundown of his daily routine, as the Giants shortstop is busy balancing his time with his wife and four young children alongside workouts and engaging in whatever baseball activities he can manage from his house.  On this particular day, for example, Crawford and the Giants’ team yoga instructor met via video conferencing for a session “based on baseball mobility and movements that we need,” Crawford said.

Some more from the National League…

  • While Crawford is one of many players staying at home with his family during the shutdown, newly-signed Cardinals left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim is in St. Louis while his family is in South Korea.  Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that Kim could potentially return to Korea while Major League Baseball is on hiatus.  “I can only imagine the mental challenge [Kim is] under with his wife and children back in South Korea, trying to adapt to a new country, a new team, and then have all this thrust upon him,” Mozeliak said.  “So we’re trying to navigate that as best we can, but…clearly this has not been easy for him, and I think all of us could understand why.”
  • From that same teleconference earlier this week, Mozeliak also provided updates on some injured Cardinals players.  Miles Mikolas continues to make progress after suffering a flexor tendon strain in February and receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection, as Mikolas will soon throw a bullpen session and is currently throwing from 120 feet.  Brett Cecil recently took time off from his hamstring injury rehab for personal reasons, but Mozeliak said Cecil will resume the process next week.  Cecil suffered what manager Mike Shildt described as a “fairly significant” right hamstring strain in mid-March, and while no specific timeline was put in place, it was thought that Cecil was facing “multiple weeks of treatment.”
  • After pitching in Japan in 2019, Pierce Johnson signed a two-year, $5MM deal with the Padres this offseason to mark his return to North American baseball.  As Johnson told Fangraphs’ David Laurila, “a few other teams kicked the tires” on the right-hander’s availability, and he also came “really close to taking” an offer to remain with the Hanshin Tigers.  Ultimately, Johnson chose the Padres and MLB in order to bring his family back closer to home.  Johnson posted only a 5.44 ERA over his 44 2/3 career Major League innings with the Cubs and Giants in 2017-18, though his season in Nippon Professional Baseball greatly elevated his stock, as the righty posted a 1.38 ERA, 14.0 K/9, and 7.00 K/BB rate over 58 2/3 relief innings for the Tigers.

MLBTR Originals: 3/30/20 – 4/5/20

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Even with the baseball world shut down, MLB Trade Rumors is still covering any breaking news from around the game, while also exploring some broader topics.  Here’s the roundup of the week’s original content from the MLBTR staff….

  • “What one piece of advice would you give to a college student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day?”  Tim Dierkes’ question was answered by ten of baseball’s top-ranking front office executives, in an insight into what might be the best ways to land a job with a Major League team.
  • Jeff Todd’s daily YouTube video updates looked back at a pair of major trades in Padres history — the April 2015 acquisition of Craig Kimbrel from the Braves, and the June 2016 deal that sent James Shields to the White Sox for a then-relatively unheralded infield prospect named Fernando Tatis Jr.  Jeff’s other topics this week included a look back at his picks in the MLBTR free agent prediction contest, and rating the trade histories of White Sox GM Rick Hahn and Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen.
  • Hahn was also one of the front office bosses profiled this week as part of the GM Trade History series, where readers can grade each executive’s trading prowess.  This week, Jeff Todd, Connor Byrne, and Steve Adams covered eight different presidents of baseball operations/general managers — Hahn, the Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, the Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman, the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Phillies’ Matt Klentak, and the Tigers’ Al Avila.
  • One of the biggest trades Dipoto and Hazen swung over their respective front office tenures came in November 2016, when the Diamondbacks acquired Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis.  Connor Byrne broke down the many ripple effects from that fascinating swap.
  • While we’re looking back at past transactions, some other notable past deals were revisited this week.  Connor Byrne explored the Cardinals’ ill-fated signing of Greg Holland in March 2018, as well as the January 2017 trade between the Reds and Marlins that resulted in Luis Castillo coming to Cincinnati.  Since we just passed the anniversary of Elvis Andrus’ extension with the Rangers, Mark Polishuk looked at how that contract was faring five years into its duration.
  • The Offseason In Review series continued, with this week’s entries covering the winter business of the Rangers, Giants, and Reds.
  • Steve Adams focused the Rookie Radar on some AL East and NL Central youngsters who could be immediate contributors if the 2020 season gets underway.
  • Speaking of young talent, how about a little Prospect Faceoff action?  This week’s matchups included Luis Robert vs. Jo Adell, Gavin Lux versus Wander Franco, Jesus Luzardo against MacKenzie Gore, Joey Bart taking on Adley Rutschman, and Casey Mize battling Nate Pearson.
  • Why was Yasiel Puig the last major free agent left without a new team?  Connor Byrne examines the question by breaking down the outfielder’s 2019 numbers.
  • The Rockies haven’t had much recent success in free agency, as Connor Byrne looks at how the club hasn’t gotten any return on its last eight signings of more than $10MM in guaranteed money.
  • Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander could be ready for a breakout season, George Miller writes.  Steve Adams also looks at a pair of other players in our Breakout Candidate series — Braves southpaw Max Fried and Mariners righty Austin L. Adams.
  • As complete games become more of a rarity in baseball, the four consecutive complete games tossed by White Sox starters in the 2005 ALCS stands out as an even more incredible feat today as it did over 14 years ago.  TC Zencka revisits that signature achievement from the World Series-winning club.
  • The threat of a heavily-shortened or completely canceled 2020 season would be a particularly huge blow to teams built to win now, as Steve Adams and Connor Byrne observe in their looks at how the delayed season impacts the Twins and Athletics.

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