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Teams & Players Adapting Opt-Out Plans Amid Coronavirus Uncertainty

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Typically, late March is a time in which we see a lot of roster movement as clubs sort out their Opening Day rosters. Veteran free agents on minor-league deals can often force the action by virtue of opt-out clauses in their contracts. But the situation looks quite a bit different under the unusual circumstances of the delayed 2020 season.

League rosters have not been frozen. And there’s no rule suspending the operation of those opt-out clauses. Accordingly, teams and player agents have been left to sort things out on a case-by-case basis.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter link) that there are a variety of approaches being taken around the game. In some cases, teams and players have effectively pushed back the decision by reaching new agreements pegged to some future date — from the start of a second Spring Training or eventual Opening Day. The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Pirates are in the latter camp.

In other situations, it seems, the sides have more or less tabled the details, leaving for another day a determination on the operation of the opt-out clause. And in still other cases, there’s still uncertainty. The Royals, for instance, are still trying to decide how best to handle the immediately pending (March 26th) opt-outs of veteran relievers Greg Holland and Trevor Rosenthal.

It’s certainly possible that those and other players will simply exercise their opt-out rights as originally negotiated. We’ve already seen some players — Joe Panik with the Blue Jays; Ryan Buchter with the Angels — earn 40-man roster spots in recent days, so some clubs have obviously been willing to make commitments.

Curious how this might impact your favorite team’s plans? Our 2019-20 Free Agent Tracker includes links to all of our posts on minor-league signings, with simple filters to help you isolate the signings of interest. At minimum, you’ll see many of the players who were brought into camp as non-roster invitees. And the linked posts on the signings include opt-out details, if they were reported.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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A season after locking superstar Nolan Arenado into a long-term deal, the Rockies entered the offseason with a payroll bordering on the highest in team history. Despite flirting with the idea of moving Arenado and his mega deal, Colorado largely stood pat. When the 2020 season begins, they will confront their rivals in the NL West with close to the same team that racked up 91 losses a year ago.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Mujica, RHP: $563K, split contract
  • Total spend: $563K

Trades and Claims

Options Decisions

  • None

Extensions

  • Trevor Story, SS: Two years, $27.5MM (includes $2MM signing bonus, $8MM salary in 2020, $17.5MM salary in 2021)
  • Scott Oberg, RHP: Three years, $13MM deal ($2MM in 2020, $4MM in 2021, $7MM in 2022, $8MM team option for 2023)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It’s been a long offseason for Rockies’ fans, even before COVID-19 put the season on temporary hold. The team that lost 91 games in 2019 didn’t get anything in the way of reinforcements over the winter. Executive VP & GM Jeff Bridich handed out just one major league contract — to Jose Mujica, a candidate for the rotation, though he has yet to make his major league debut. Mujica, 23, became a minor league free agent after six seasons in the Rays’ system. The 2019 season would have been his seventh with Tampa had he not undergone Tommy John and missed the entire year. In 2018, Mujica ascended as high as Triple-A where he notched a 2.80 ERA/2.81 FIP across 36 2/3 innings. He enjoyed good luck in the home run department over that span, as just 2.6% of the flyballs he allowed left the yard, but there’s at least a reasonable expectation for Mujica to join the pool of rotation candidates in Colorado, especially given their uncertainty in that department.

Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.

The third would be 2018. The Rockies pulled off a 91-win season the year before last, and though the pitching staff finished with a 4.33 ERA — slightly higher than the league average at 4.27 — they outplayed their pythagorean record by six wins and came within a play-in game of stealing the divisional crown from the Dodgers. Last season, the team ERA ballooned to 5.66, and Bud Black’s crew reversed their fortunes from a year before. The Rox weren’t the only pitchers to struggle last season, of course, as the league’s ERA on the whole ballooned from 4.27 in 2018 to 4.62 in 2019, but few staffs did so as mightily as the Rockies.

Regardless of where the league ERA falls in 2020, the blueprint is clear: if the Rockies can eek out average production from their pitchers, they’ll have a shot at contention. Unfortunately, the only additions from outside the organization this winter (beyond Mujica) were minor league signings like Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Collins, Daniel Bard and Zac Rosscup. Jimenez made his debut in the rotation for that 2007 team, and he fronted the staff by 2009. Maybe there’s some wisdom he can impart about how to manage in Coors Field, but he’s unlikely to make much of a contribution on the hill. The 36-year-old last pitched in the majors in 2017 for the Orioles.

Collins may actually help in the bullpen, as he’s put up consistently solid ERAs when healthy. He shouldn’t be affected by the new three-batter rule either, with near identical splits versus lefties (.226/.339/.381) and versus righties (.235/.332/.358). That said, he’s yet to really re-establish himself after missing all of the 2015 and 2016 seasons after undergoing, you guessed it, Tommy John.

Worse yet for the Rockies, the messaging out of Colorado immediately after the season ended was that of befuddlement and frustration. Given that they didn’t spend much effort pursuing free agents, perhaps they’ve had time to figure out if the new baseball really was unduly launch-able in Colorado’s thin air, but as of November, the organization was still reeling and seemingly at a loss. Of course, a lot of time has passed since then, and time will tell if more stringent adherence to mechanical repetition can return Colorado hurlers like Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, and German Marquez to unleashing better versions of themselves. Without bounce-back campaigns from their rotation – as well as closer Wade Davis, who was recently re-minted the ninth-inning man despite a 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP in 2019 – the Rockies will have a tough time recording outs with consistency enough to compete in an increasingly competitive NL West.

On the position-player side, the Rockies should remain competitive, though their activity this winter was hardy encouraging. Mostly, they spent the winter engaged in a cold war with their franchise player, who felt “disrespected” by the organization while expressly voicing his desire to play for a contender. All is not lost, however, and Arenado remains an extremely valuable asset, even while raking in $35MM a year. He’s that good.

And yet, the rift between Arenado and the club is unsettling. For now, the Rockies have probably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball, but Trevor Story may not be a lifer in Colorado either. Story signed an extension this winter, which on its face may seem like a positive, but it merely preserves an existing window of control before he’s slated to qualify for free agency. Story’s deal settled his final two seasons of arbitration without buying out any free agent years.

Then there’s this: The expiration date of Story’s new deal coincides with a lot of money coming off the books in Colorado. Barring a long-term agreement, he’ll be a free agent after the 2021 season, at which time the Rockies will also be free of current upscale rosterees like Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Ian Desmond, as well as Gray, the presumptive staff ace, who enters his final arbitration season in 2021. Arenado, as well, has an opt out that same offseason. The Rockies essentially have two seasons before they could face a complete organizational reset – which means the clock is ticking on any opportunities to get out in front of these free agent departures.

The offseason, however, felt anything but urgent. Having ramped up salaries in the past several years, Colorado doesn’t appear willing to spend beyond the current level. With an opening day payroll set to be around $156MM, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource, the payroll remains exactly where it was at the start of this offseason.

Despite their overall stagnancy, the Rockies did extend their best bullpen arm in Scott Oberg. Bridich has poured a lot of money into the bullpen in recent years, and the results haven’t exactly been gold-star worthy. But the Oberg investment looks solid. Over 105 games the last two seasons, he’s put up a 2.35 ERA/3.20 FIP with 9.0 K/9 versus 2.7 BB/9, and the financial terms are modest.

2020 Outlook

It’s bound to be a tough season in Colorado. If they struggle out of the gate, the frigidity between the club and Arenado isn’t likely to improve, and the trade rumors will continue to swirl. They’ve shown no inclination towards dealing any of their top trade chips (Arenado, Story, Gray, David Dahl), but if the pitching doesn’t make an immediate and drastic 180 at the start of the season, Bridich may be forced to consider his options.

How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Rockies' Offseason?
F 45.39% (970 votes)
D 35.52% (759 votes)
C 14.46% (309 votes)
A 2.48% (53 votes)
B 2.15% (46 votes)
Total Votes: 2,137

GM Trade History: Brewers’ David Stearns

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings. In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership. The same can hold true of major extensions. It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well. But when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason, the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. After covering the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen and former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, today we’ll move to David Stearns of the Brewers. (In chronological order and excluding minor deals. Full details at transaction link.)

2019-20 Offseason

2019 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2018 Season

2017-18

2017 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2016 Season

2015-16 Offseason

—

How would you grade Stearns for his overall work on the trade front? (Poll link for app users.)

Grade David Stearns's Overall Track Record In Trades
B 41.92% (1,660 votes)
A 39.62% (1,569 votes)
C 14.24% (564 votes)
D 2.65% (105 votes)
F 1.57% (62 votes)
Total Votes: 3,960

Latest On Talks Between MLB, MLBPA

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The unfortunate reality is that we’re all but certain to see fewer Major League Baseball games than usual in 2020. That could have an effect on many different aspects, including players’ service time. That’s always a contentious issue, evidenced in part by Kris Bryant’s battle with the Cubs during the offseason, though it does seem the league and the players are coming together on the matter during this time of crisis.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), MLB is going to grant a full year of service time to all players who remain active throughout the upcoming campaign, no matter how many games are played. That could obviously have an impact on teams’ decisions to promote their prospects if a 2020 season takes place, not to mention the effect on upcoming free-agent classes. It’s no doubt welcome news for someone like all-world Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts, a contract-year player who needs 102 more days of service time to reach the open market. Considering the current circumstances, neither Betts nor anyone else may be in position to accrue 102 days this year.

In the event of a coronavirus-forced worst-case scenario that would rob us of baseball in 2020, how would the sport proceed with respect to service time? That’s unclear right now, per Rosenthal, who writes that the league and the players remain hopeful that “as many games as possible” will occur in 2020.

The sides continue to negotiate on various matters, reports Rosenthal, who adds that the union sent its latest proposal Tuesday. The United States is amid a national emergency, thus giving commissioner Rob Manfred the right to withhold players’ salaries. But the league’s not doing that as of now. Rather, it offered a lump-sum advance of over $150MM (more than $125K per 40-man roster player) during earlier talks with the union, Rosenthal relays. However, the parties are still trying to hammer out an agreement that works for the two of them.

GM Trade History: Jeff Luhnow

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It wasn’t long ago that many regarded Jeff Luhnow as one of the best general managers in baseball. The former Cardinals executive took the reins of a horrible Houston team after the 2011 season, oversaw a couple atrocious campaigns and then helped it morph into a juggernaut. Thanks in part to Luhnow’s work, the Astros are coming off three straight seasons of at least 100 victories. They won their first-ever World Series in 2017 and took home the American League pennant in 2019 on Luhnow’s watch.

Despite the accomplishments the Astros piled up under Luhnow, he’s now disgraced, suspended for a year and unemployed. Everything came crashing down for Luhnow during the offseason because of an Astros sign-stealing scandal that has called their recent success into question. As a result, Luhnow may never work in baseball again, let alone as a GM. Nevertheless, it’s worth looking back on his tenure atop the Astros’ baseball operations.

With no real baseball going on for the foreseeable future, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd began a series Tuesday examining the trade histories of GMs. We might explore all current GMs’ swaps, but even though he’s without a job, Luhnow makes for a fascinating enough case to warrant his own post. With that said, we’ll take a look back at the notable trades Luhnow made in Houston. You can assess his trade history after reviewing it…

2011-12 Offseason

2012 Season

2012-13 Offseason

2013 Season

2013-14 Offseason

2014 Season

2014-15 Offseason

2o15 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

No one knows whether Luhnow will get another chance as a GM. His history of trades may play a role in that. How do you think he did in that department during his reign in Houston? (Poll link for app users)

Grade Jeff Luhnow's trade track record
B 38.86% (1,595 votes)
A 28.84% (1,184 votes)
C 20.41% (838 votes)
F 7.33% (301 votes)
D 4.56% (187 votes)
Total Votes: 4,105

Latest on Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning

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Angels two-way player Shohei Ohtani has progressed in his rehab to throwing off of flat ground, Angels GM Billy Eppler tells reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (Twitter link). This seems to be in line with the timeline laid out last month, where he was expected to be able to rejoin the rotation by mid-May. Ardaya says that Ohtani could try throwing off a mound again in a couple weeks, which would be early April. And given that mid-May is the earliest the season could start, it’s seeming likely that Ohtani could be ready to go by Opening Day, regardless of when it is.

Griffin Canning, on the other hand, seems to be behind his rotation mate in terms of his rehab timeline. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter that Eppler says Canning is still about a week away from throwing. Canning’s timeline after that is less clear. Unlike Ohtani, who is following a fairly well-understood rehab process to come back from Tommy John surgery, Canning is seemingly trying to avoid an extended absence. His initial diagnosis last month did involve “chronic changes” to his ulnar collateral ligament, but no tearing. Shortly after that, he received “biological injections” to treat his elbow. (Fletcher’s tweet refers to PRP, or a platelet-rich plasma injection.) Whether this path back to health will be effective remains to be seen, but next week’s throwing sessions will be the first step in ascertaining as much.

As recently laid out by Connor Byrne of MLBTR, the delayed start to the season could actually be a boon to the Angels precisely because it reduces the amount of time that the team would need to hobble along with a weakened rotation. It’s now possible that the rotation could consist of Ohtani and Canning, along with Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. This would potentially bump Patrick Sandoval, Matt Andriese, Jaime Barria and Dillon Peters into the bullpen or depth positions in the minors.

Red Sox Minor Leaguer Tests Positive For Coronavirus

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An unnamed Red Sox minor leaguer has tested positive for COVID-19, the team announced Tuesday. According to the statement:

His positive test occurred on March 23rd following his return home and he was last at the Fenway South Player Development Complex on March 15th.  Given the timing of the player’s positive test and travel, we believe it is more likely that he contracted COVID-19 after he left Fort Myers.  Nevertheless, out of an abundance of caution, the club is shutting down Fenway South from all activity effective today, for at least two weeks.

The statement goes on to say that the facility will now receive a “deep cleaning” and that anyone who came into contact with this player has been instructed to go into self-quarantine for two weeks.

This illustrates the potential dangers of attempting to maintain camps and group workouts during the pandemic. According to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, many Red Sox players, including major leaguers, had still been working out at the facility (Twitter link). Hopefully, the team is correct in its assessment that the player in question contracted the virus after leaving.

This is now the fourth case of a positive test for COVID-19 for someone connected to Major League Baseball, joining a Reds employee and two minor leaguers in the Yankees system. The statement notes that the player in question is “doing well” but does not elaborate because of privacy concerns.

Rebound Candidate: Justin Smoak

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The Brewers entered the free-agent period with a void at first base. They let go of their top option from last year, Eric Thames, declining his $7.5MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Months before that, the Brewers traded right-handed complement Jesus Aguilar to the Rays. The Brewers are now set to rely on former Mariner, Ranger and Blue Jay Justin Smoak, whom they signed to a $5MM guarantee in December. Smoak’s contract also includes a $5.5MM option for 2021. Both prices are eminently fair, and there’s reason to believe that Smoak will justify Milwaukee’s investment.

To start off, it’s worth noting how Smoak got to this point. He’s a former standout prospect who has seldom matched the hype. The switch-hitting 33-year-old owns a mediocre .231/.324/.420 line with a 104 wRC+ (the league-average mark is 100) and 6.2 fWAR across 4,618 plate appearances. However, Smoak did somewhat begin to realize his potential in recent years. He put up in the best years of his career from 2017-18, a 1,231-PA stretch in which he batted .256/.353/.495 (128 wRC+) with 63 of his 191 home runs and posted almost all of his lifetime fWAR (5.3).

On the heels of his two consecutive strong seasons, there wasn’t reason to think Smoak would fall off in 2019. Unfortunately for him and the Blue Jays, it happened. He took 500 trips to the plate and could only muster a line of .208/.342/.406 (101 wRC+). Smoak did amass another 22 homers, but his overall production (0.2 fWAR) rendered him a replacement player. So, if you’re a Brewers fan who isn’t expecting much from Smoak in 2020, that’s understandable. However, it does appear that he deserved better a season ago, which could bode well for this year.

Despite his so-so output in his last campaign in Toronto, Smoak did manage much better strikeout and walk numbers than the typical hitter. He drew a free pass 15.8 percent of the time, almost doubling the MLB mean of 8.5 percent, and struck out in 21.2 percent of plate appearances (the league average was 23 percent). Additionally, he upped his hard-hit rate by almost 9 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. Smoak also swung and missed in just 8.9 percent of PA (the normal hitter checked in at 11.1) and rated as one of Statcast’s favorite under-the-radar offensive players from last season. He ranked in the league’s 72nd percentile in average exit velocity (90.3 mph), its 76th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.495, crushing his actual mark of .406) and its 86th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (.366, far outdoing his real wOBA of .323).

None of the above guarantees Smoak will rebound in 2020. That said, when you combine his bottom-line production from 2018-19 with his under-the-hood numbers from last year, he looks like a logical bounce-back candidate for this season. From the low-budget Brewers’ perspective, it was worthwhile to take a chance on Smoak.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: The 2020 Draft

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Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, there is no telling whether we’ll even get a Major League Baseball season this year. That uncertainty also affects important off-field events that include the amateur draft. The draft is still slated to take place from June 10-12, though nobody knows if it will actually occur this year.

As we noted last week, carrying on with the draft as scheduled would be the ideal scenario for the sport. Otherwise, the lives of many draft-eligible players could be thrown (even more) into chaos. How would a cancellation or postponement impact college juniors and seniors? How would it affect prospects who are about to graduate high school? Those players’ seasons – including those who would have participated in the College World Series – have already come to a halt because of this global catastrophe that has has put a stop to scouting.

Teams have less information on prospects than they normally would, but at least one executive is unfazed. That person told Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription link): “We’re not going to have an opportunity to dot the ‘i’s and cross the ‘t’s. But we’ve got a lot of information. We’ve seen these guys play for a long time. We know who the top players are. Let’s just get ‘em in our system.”

A shorter draft (two to three rounds) could take place, as Rosenthal and Stark write, but such an event would require teams to readjust their draft pools and how they handle undrafted players. The players may not be gung-ho on the idea, anyway. One person on the union’s side told Rosenthal and Stark that it would be a “colossal error” to go in that direction.

How to proceed with the draft is one of numerous difficult situations for which the league is going to have to find an answer. We’d all like to see the draft happen on time. Otherwise, though, MLB will have to push the festivities back to later this year or perhaps even combine this draft with the 2021 version.

(Poll link for app users)

What should MLB do about the 2020 draft?
Hold it on time 56.77% (2,637 votes)
Push it back 34.60% (1,607 votes)
Combine it with the 2021 draft 8.63% (401 votes)
Total Votes: 4,645

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