Sal Frelick

Brewers Place Garrett Mitchell On IL With Shoulder Injury

By Darragh McDonald | April 19, 2023 at 1:35pm CDT

The Brewers announced that they have placed outfielder Garrett Mitchell on the 10-day injured list with a left shoulder subluxation. Fellow outfielder Blake Perkins has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.

Mitchell, 24, appeared to injure himself while sliding into third base during the 10th inning of last night’s game. He initially stayed in the game but then was removed after making a throw in the bottom of that frame. It’s unclear how long he’ll now be out but he tells reporters, including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that he will get an MRI tomorrow. The results of that imaging will hopefully shed some light on what lies ahead for him.

In the meantime, he’ll miss at least a week and a bit, slowing down a nice start to his career. Between his debut last year and the start to this season, he’s played in 44 major league games so far. Though he’s struck out in 40% of his plate appearances to this point, he also has five home runs, nine stolen bases and a .286/.341/.462 batting line for a 121 wRC+.

This leaves the Brewers down two outfielders, as Tyrone Taylor has been on the IL all year due to a sprained elbow. Rosiak relays that Taylor will soon begin a rehab assignment, but he’ll probably need a decent amount of playing time there since he missed Spring Training. Prospect Sal Frelick wasn’t an option either, with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relaying that he’s out of action in the minors due to a thumb injury. He’s also not on the 40-man roster and would have required a corresponding move to be added, but it seems the injury has made that a moot point.

Those circumstances have aligned to get Blake Perkins to the big leagues for the first time. The 26-year-old has been toiling away in the minors since being drafted back in 2015, spending time in the systems of the Nationals, Royals and Yankees. With the Yanks last year, he walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. He finished the year with a combined batting line of .246/.357/.456 and a 120 wRC+. He didn’t get a roster spot and became a free agent at season’s end, with the Brewers then signing him to a major league deal. That gave him a 40-man roster spot for the first time in his career, but he was still able to be optioned to the minors, having hit .292/.370/.417 in 13 Triple-A games so far in 2023. He’ll be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Without Mitchell, the Brewers will have an outfield mix consisting of Christian Yelich in left and Joey Wiemer likely moving over from right to cover center. Right field could then go to Brian Anderson, who has been playing third base to cover for the injured Luis Urías. That could mean Mike Brosseau gets more time at the hot corner or maybe Owen Miller gets some time in right. Perkins is also capable of playing any of the three outfield spots, allowing him to factor in here and have the other pieces shuffled around as needed.

Brewers Sign Luke Voit To One-Year Deal

By Darragh McDonald | March 28, 2023 at 10:13pm CDT

MARCH 28: Voit signed a split deal that comes with a $2MM base salary for time spent in the majors, the Associated Press reports. Voit should reach five years of major league service a few days into the season, which would afford him the right to refuse an optional assignment to the minors at that point. The Excel Sports Management client would receive $500K apiece for reaching 250, 300, 350, 400, 450 and 500 plate appearances — potentially maxing the deal out at $5MM. The ’24 club option is valued at $12MM and doesn’t come with a buyout. He’d remain arbitration-eligible if Milwaukee declines the option.

MARCH 27: The Brewers announced to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that they have signed first baseman Luke Voit to a one-year deal with a club option for 2024. The financial terms aren’t publicly known at this time. In a corresponding move, infielder Keston Hiura was designated for assignment. Additionally, infielder Abraham Toro was optioned to the minors and outfielder Sal Frelick was reassigned to minor league camp. The Brewers also announced that infielder Brice Turang has made the Opening Day roster.

Voit, 32, has previously been in camp with the Brewers on a minor league deal, though it afforded him the ability to opt-out and pursue opportunities elsewhere. Though he initially agreed to kick that decision down the road, he eventually triggered his opt-out and returned to the open market. However, the Brewers didn’t want him to get away and have now brought him back aboard with a major league deal and an option for 2024. Even if they turn that option down, they could still retain Voit via arbitration since he will still be shy of six years’ service time at the end of the season.

The slugger has previously been one of the most potent bats in the league but is coming off a couple of years that weren’t quite as strong. He actually led the majors in home runs in the shortened 2020 season, going over the fence 22 times. His .277/.338/.610 batting line that year amounted to a wRC+ of 153, indicating he was 53% better than the league average hitter. But in 2021, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the year and struggled when he wasn’t on the IL. The Yanks eventually supplanted him at first by acquiring Anthony Rizzo, trading Voit to the Padres going into 2022.

Voit stayed healthy enough to get into 135 game last year, eventually hitting 22 home runs, but with lesser results overall. He struck out in 31.5% of his plate appearances and hit .226/.308/.402 for a wRC+ of 102. That included a midseason trade to the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal, after Eric Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to take himself out of it. The Nats could have kept him around via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an $8.2MM salary, though they non-tendered him instead.

The Brewers have a left-handed hitter at first base in Rowdy Tellez and their outfield/designated hitter mix contains further lefties in Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Garrett Mitchell. Voit’s right-handed bat would seem at first glance to make a good fit for that group in a platoon role, though he actually has modest reverse splits in his career. He’s hit .262/.347/.491 against righties in his career for a 129 wRC+. Against southpaws, he’s hit .236/.329/.439, for a 110 wRC+, still above average but less than his work against righties. However he’s deployed, he’ll look to get back on track with his new club after a couple of trying seasons.

As for Hiura, 26, he made a big splash with his debut in 2019, hitting 19 home runs in just 84 games. He’s continued to hit for power in the seasons since but with mounting strikeout issues that have diminished his overall production. Last year, he hit 14 homers in just 80 games but was also punched out at a 41.7% rate. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a detailed look of the Hiura situation, which put the club in an awkward spot because he no longer has options. A few days ago, Hiura was informed that he would not be making the roster.

The Brewers will now have a week to either trade Hiura or try to pass him through waivers. Despite his struggles, it seems possible that another team would be willing to give him a shot based on his huge power output. That could perhaps be a team that isn’t expecting to be competitive this year, though it’s also possible that injuries could create opportunities elsewhere. In the event that Hiura clears waivers, he would be able to reject an outright assignment, though it’s possible he accepts. Players with between three and five years of service time can reject outright assignments but they have to forfeit their salary. Hiura qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason and agreed to a $2.2MM salary, meaning he’d have to leave that on the table to become a free agent.

As for Turang, 23, he’s one of the club’s top prospects. Selected in the first round of the 2018 draft, he spent last year in Triple-A. He hit 13 home runs and stole 34 bases, hitting .286/.360/.412 for a wRC+ of 108. Though he’s mostly been a shortstop in his time in the minors, he figures to take over the second base job in Milwaukee next to Willy Adames. Turang is already on the 40-man roster so a corresponding move won’t be necessary.

Keston Hiura Will Not Make Brewers’ Roster

By Anthony Franco | March 24, 2023 at 2:46pm CDT

The Brewers have informed infielder Keston Hiura he will not be on the active roster, general manager Matt Arnold told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Since he’s out of minor league option years, Milwaukee will have to trade him or place him on waivers in the next few days.

Arnold also indicated that outfielder Tyler Naquin — who is in camp on a minor league deal — won’t be on the team either (relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Naquin will have a chance to opt out of his contract and retest free agency if he doesn’t plan to accept an assignment to Triple-A Nashville.

The tougher call for the Milwaukee front office was to cut bait with Hiura. The ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft, he entered pro ball as one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Hiura flew through the minor leagues and was in the majors within two seasons. He hit the ground running, connecting on 19 home runs with a .303/.368/.570 line in 84 games as a rookie at age 22. That came with a somewhat concerning 30.7% strikeout rate, but it seemed fair to anticipate Hiura making strides from a contact perspective as he gained more experience against big league arms.

Unfortunately for player and team alike, that’s not how things have played out. While he hit 13 more homers in 59 games during the shortened season, his strikeouts jumped to 34.6%. That led to a meager .212/.297/.410 slash. The swing-and-miss concerns continued to mount the following year, as he punched out just under 40% of the time in 61 big league contests. That led Milwaukee to yo-yo between him the majors and Nashville, where Hiura hit for a ton of power and drew plenty of walks but continued striking out at an alarming clip.

It was a similar story in 2022. The UC-Irvine product got into 80 MLB games and drilled 14 homers. His .226/.316/.449 line was 15 percentage points better than last year’s league average offense, as measured by wRC+. Yet it came with a personal-high 41.7% strikeout percentage, the second-highest rate among the 358 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Any regression in his .355 batting average on balls in play could’ve left him around the Mendoza line with a sub-.300 OBP unless he took a step forward with his bat-to-ball skills. He’d been off to a rough start this spring, striking out in 15 of 32 at-bats while hitting .156/.229/.219.

Unlike in prior years, the Brew Crew didn’t have the luxury of sending Hiura to Nashville to try to figure things out. Without any remaining options, they had to determine whether it was worth carrying him in a bench role. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored a couple weeks ago, the decision was complicated by the presence of another right-handed first baseman, Luke Voit, who’s in camp on a minor league deal. Milwaukee parting ways with Hiura would seem to bode well for Voit’s chances of cracking the roster, though the club hasn’t yet indicated whether he’ll make the team.

The Brewers will take the next few days to evaluate their options with Hiura. It seems likely another team will have some interest in a change of scenery trade. He’s under arbitration control through the 2025 campaign and playing this year on an affordable $2.2MM salary. A win-now team like Milwaukee might not have room on the roster but a club with a less immediate contention window like the Nationals or Rockies could take a look. The Phillies are an immediate contender but just lost Rhys Hoskins to a likely season-ending ACL tear and could look for a righty bat to supplement the first base mix.

If Milwaukee were to place Hiura on waivers, any other team could grab him while assuming the salary. Should he go unclaimed, he’d almost certainly stick with the organization in Nashville. Hiura has between three and five years of service time, which gives him the right to refuse an outright assignment but would require relinquishing his salary to do so.

As for Naquin, he seems likely to explore his options on the market. The left-handed hitter is a career .274/.326/.468 hitter against righty pitching. He’s not a great defender and is best served in a platoon capacity but he could find immediate interest elsewhere. Naquin hit .194/.278/.258 in 12 games this spring.

With Tyrone Taylor set to open the season on the injured list, Milwaukee has a decision to make in right field. Christian Yelich will be in left and Garrett Mitchell seems a virtual lock for center. Right field time could fall to Brian Anderson or utility player Owen Miller but Milwaukee also has a pair of highly-regarded prospects in Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer. Neither has yet played in the majors but both hit well in Triple-A last year. Arnold said that either of Frelick or Wiemer breaking camp is “definitely in play” (via Hogg).

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

By Darragh McDonald | February 9, 2023 at 7:30pm CDT

The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Sorting Through The Brewers’ Outfield Options

By Darragh McDonald | February 6, 2023 at 7:59pm CDT

The Brewers’ outfield is going to have a different flavor this year compared to 2022. Lorenzo Cain was released in June of last year, Andrew McCutchen reached free agency at season’s end and has since signed with the Pirates, while Hunter Renfroe was dealt to the Angels. That leaves room for some fresh faces to step up and take over. Let’s take a look at some of the options.

The Lock

Christian Yelich

Yelich, 31, is the one constant in the Milwaukee outfield picture, as his contract runs through 2028. He was one of the best players in the league in 2018 and 2019, winning National League Most Valuable Player in the first of those two seasons. In each of those two campaigns, he posted a wRC+ of 167 or higher, stole at least 22 bases and was worth 7.2 fWAR or more. His production has dropped off from those incredible heights over the past three years, but he’s still a solidly above-average player. Last year, he hit 14 home runs, stole 19 bases and walked in 13.1% of his plate appearances. That led to a .252/.355/.383 batting line, a 111 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR.

His contract and past performance ensure that he’ll be part of the team on a regular basis, though he’ll likely serve as the designated hitter a few times, leaving plenty of outfield playing time for others. The last time he played the field in more than 115 games in a season was 2019. Since the club is invested in Yelich for the long haul, they’ll want to continue giving him the occasional breather to keep him healthy. Advanced defensive metrics are also split on his glovework, with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both grading him as subpar last year and for his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating is much more encouraged.

Short-Term Vets

Jesse Winker

Winker, 29, is looking for a bounce back after a down season. In 2020 and 2021 with the Reds, he hit 36 home runs and produced a batting line of .292/.392/.552. Of all the hitters in the league with at least 650 plate appearances in that stretch, his 145 wRC+ was one of the 10 best. His work was even stronger with the platoon advantage, as he hit righties to the tune of .321/.417/.619 for a 167 wRC+, with only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper ahead of him in that department. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2022 but struggled, hitting just 14 home runs last year and slashing .219/.344/.344 overall for a wRC+ of 109.

The Brewers acquired him as part of the Kolten Wong trade and will hope that a second change of scenery will suit Winker better than the first. It’s possible that injuries played a role as Winker required left knee surgery and a second procedure to address a bulging disc in his neck in October, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has also reported that Winker’s work habits were a concern in Seattle. Regardless of the cause, Milwaukee is considered to be a much more favorable offensive environment than Seattle, which should work in his favor.

It remains to be seen how much the Brewers want to rely on Winker as a defender. His glovework has generally been rated poorly in his career and his numbers declined in that department in 2022. That could have been impacted by his health situation, but it’s possible he spends more time as the DH than in the field. However, as mentioned, Yelich will likely see his share of time in the DH slot as well, which will likely require Winker to spend at least a bit of time in the field. Winker is slated for free agency at season’s end.

Brian Anderson

Anderson, 30 in May, is also looking for a bounceback like Winker. From 2018-20, he hit 42 home runs for the Marlins and produced a line of .266/.350/.436, 115 wRC+. But the past two seasons have seen injuries diminish his playing time and performance. He got into just 165 total games over 2021 and 2022, hitting .233/.321/.359 for a 93 wRC+. He was eligible for one more pass through arbitration but the Marlins non-tendered him instead, with Anderson then signing a one-year deal with the Brewers.

Anderson has a bit more time at third base in his career than the outfield, and he told reporters last month he expects to see more time at third base than in the outfield. Milwaukee has Luis Urías to man the hot corner, through. That should leave Anderson in the mix for some outfield time, perhaps in a platoon role. He hits from the right side while Yelich and Winker both his left-handed, as do some of the guys below him on this list. Anderson has modest reverse splits for his career but did hit lefties better last year. Defensively, in over 1,500 outfield innings, Anderson has a -8 OAA but 8 DRS and 9.3 UZR. Even though he was hurt last year, his arm strength was still considered to be in the 99th percentile by Statcast, which could serve him well at third base or in the outfield.

Controllable Guys With Some Experience

Tyrone Taylor

Taylor, 29, has been largely a part-time option for the Brewers in recent years but took on a larger role last year as Cain was gradually phased out. He got into 120 games in 2022 and provided enough power to overcome some lackluster work at the plate otherwise. He struck out in 25.2% of his plate appearances and drew walks at just a 5.4% clip, but he did hit 17 long balls in 405 plate appearances. The result was a .233/.286/.442 batting line and a wRC+ of 102.

That work at the plate was just above average but he was much stronger on the other side of the ball. He played all three outfield positions but mostly in center, earning 6 DRS, 6 OAA and 2.0 UZR overall. It wasn’t a superstar performance but was competent in enough areas to produce 2.1 fWAR on the year. He’s set to reach arbitration for the first time after this year and can be retained through the 2026 campaign.

Garrett Mitchell

Mitchell, 24, was only drafted in 2020 but has already cracked the majors. He hit .287/.377/.426 between Double-A and Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 118. He was selected to the major league club in August and was somehow even better in the big leagues. He hit .311/.373/.459 for a wRC+ of 136 in his first 68 MLB plate appearances. That’s a small sample size, however, and he did strike out 41.2% of the time. His defensive work was also graded as above average and he stole eight bases in 28 games.

Mitchell is a real wild card in this bunch since his 2023 could seemingly go in many different ways. On the one hand, he’s shown impressive results in all facets of the game and could be an immediate center field solution, pushing Taylor into a corner role. On the other hand, he has played less than 50 games above Double-A, the strikeouts are a real concern and his .548 batting average on balls in play will require serious regression.

Skye Bolt/Monte Harrison

Bolt, 29, and Harrison, 27, are in a similar boat to each other. They have both posted some solid minor league numbers but struggled in the majors. They’re now both out of options and had to settle for minor league deals for 2023. Bolt has a career batting line of .156/.205/.266 while Harrison’s is .176/.253/.294. They’ll likely only get a shot if the club gets bit by the injury bug a few times. Neither has reached arbitration yet and could theoretically be retained well into the future if they carve out a role.

Infielders That Can Play Some Outfield

Brice Turang/Mike Brosseau/Keston Hiura

With Wong having been traded to the Mariners, the second base job is up for grabs. Turang is one of the club’s top prospects and had a strong season in Triple-A last year, making him the favorite to take the job at the keystone despite not having cracked the majors yet. He played a bit of center field in Triple-A last year but is primarily a middle infielder. Brosseau can play all over and will be in a super utility role, allowing the club to pencil him in for any regular that requires an off-day. Hiura’s not quite as versatile, having only played first base, second base and left field in his big league career so far. He has tremendous power but has struck out in 36% of his plate appearances thus far, which will make it hard for him to carve out meaningful playing time.

On The Cusp Of A Debut

Blake Perkins

Perkins, 26, has long been considered a glove-first player but his bat seemingly took a step forward last year. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in the Yankees’ system, he stole 21 bases, hit 15 home runs and slashed .246/.357/.456 for a wRC+ of 120. He wasn’t added to that club’s roster at any point but the Brewers were intrigued enough to sign him onto their 40-man roster in November. He’ll likely be in the minors waiting for an opportunity to get called up, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his defense and speed. If the power he showed last year was a real development, he could be a well-rounded contributor.

Sal Frelick

Frelick, 23 in April, was the club’s first round pick in the 2021 draft but has quickly climbed the minor league ladder. Last year, he went from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, hitting .331/.403/.480 for a wRC+ of 137, stealing 24 bases in the process. He doesn’t have much power but he’s very tough to strikeout, hitting 11 home runs last year but getting punched out at just an 11.2% rate. He’s still not on the 40-man roster but he’s considered one of the club’s top prospects and could force his way into the picture soon.

Joey Wiemer

Wiemer, 24 this weekend, is the inverse of Frelick with big power but strikeout concerns. He hit 21 home runs last year between Double-A and Triple-A but went down on strikes 26.8% of the time. The result was a .256/.336/.465 batting line and a 109 wRC+. Despite being a power hitter, he has sneaky speed, swiping 31 bags last year. Like Frelick, he’s not on the 40-man yet but is on the doorstep. Both he and Frelick are considered capable of playing center field.

Top Prospect That Could Show Up This Year

Jackson Chourio

Chourio is arguably the most exciting of this whole bunch but he might require patience since he’s very young, still over a month away from his 19th birthday. Last year, despite being just 18 years old, he went through Low-A, High-A and Double-A, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 16 bases in 99 games. His .288/.342/.538 batting line resulted in a 135 wRC+ and he got strong reviews for his glovework in center field.

Based on those excellent results at such a young age, he’s now considered the #3 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #8 by MLB Pipeline and #5 at FanGraphs. Given his youth and the fact that he’s played just six Double-A games, he won’t be a solution for the Brewers in the short term. Even reaching the big leagues by the end of the season seems like a long shot, but it probably can’t be completely discounted given the tremendous talent he seems to possess.

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There’s a ton of young talent here, including about a half dozen plausible center fielders. That puts the Brewers in great shape for the long haul, though it might take some time to allow these guys to sort themselves out. Chourio isn’t close, while Wiemer, Frelick and Perkins still haven’t made it to the majors. Mitchell had a great debut but will need a longer stress test. Taylor should be solid for now but isn’t elite at anything and could be surpassed by the younger guys in time. Winker and Anderson will both be free agents after this year but it seems like the club could easily replace them from within.

In the future, it seems likely the Brewers will not only have a strong outfield but will likely have enough options to make trades that address other areas of the roster. We already saw one such move when they included Esteury Ruiz in the three-team deal that netted them William Contreras as their potential catcher of the future. Not all young players end up panning out as hoped, of course, but the quality and quantity both appear to be strong here. If the club can keep pace with the Cardinals in the division this year and there’s enough development from this group, perhaps the Brewers could be key players for deadline deals to help them push to return to the postseason after missing last year for the first time since 2017.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

By Brad Johnson | August 19, 2022 at 5:15pm CDT

This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Brewers Sign Top Two Draft Picks

By Anthony Franco | July 20, 2021 at 3:58pm CDT

The Brewers announced agreements with their top two picks from this year’s draft: Sal Frelick and Tyler Black. Frelick’s bonus landed at an even $4MM, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com, while Black’s deal came in at $2.2022MM (Twitter links).

The fifteenth overall pick, with which Frelick was selected, came with a $3.8858MM slot value. The former Boston College outfielder lands a bit overslot. Frelick was seen as one of the top college position players in the class. He draws praise for his hit tool from the left-handed batter’s box and athleticism. A high-end runner, Frelick moved to center field from the corner outfield for the Eagles this season and flashed potential plus defensive ability at the position.

Listed at 5’9″, Frelick isn’t expected to hit for a ton of power. But his combination of bat-to-ball skills, baserunning and defensive ability placed him among the top ten talents in the class, in the estimation of each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein of FanGraphs. Over three seasons in one of college baseball’s best conferences (the ACC), Frelick hit .345/.435/.521.

While Frelick’s bonus came in a bit above slot, Black’s deal lands right at the value associated with the #33 overall pick. A second baseman from Wright State University, the lefty-hitting Black posted an absurd .353/.468/.612 line over three seasons with the Raiders. That production is no doubt inflated by the subpar pitching he often faced in the Horizon League, but most evaluators remain convicted in his hitting ability. He landed among the top 35 prospects in the pre-draft rankings at the Athletic and FanGraphs based on his advanced hit tool and exceptional feel for the strike zone.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

By Mark Polishuk | July 11, 2021 at 7:52pm CDT

The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced. The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon. This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)

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