2016-17 Offseason In Review Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

By Mark Polishuk | at March 19, 2017 7:41pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

The Blue Jays added several veteran reinforcements to their roster and brought back franchise icon Jose Bautista, though the loss of Edwin Encarnacion may linger as a “what-if” scenario for years to come.

Major League Signings

Kendrys Morales, DH/1B: Three years, $33MM
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., IF/OF: Seven years, $22MM
Jose Bautista, RF: One year, $18.5MM (plus $17MM mutual option for 2018 and $20MM vesting option for 2019)
Steve Pearce, 1B/OF: Two years, $12.5MM
J.P. Howell, RP: One year, $3MM
Joe Smith, RP: One year, $3MM
Total spend: $92MM

Trades And Claims

Claimed RHP Dominic Leone off waivers from Diamondbacks
Claimed RHP Leonel Campos off waivers from Padres
Claimed C Juan Graterol off waivers from Angels
Selected RHP Glenn Sparkman from Royals in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Jeff Beliveau, Jonathan Diaz, Jake Elmore, Gavin Floyd, Jarrett Grube, Lucas Harrell, T.J. House, Mat Latos, Rafael Lopez, Brett Oberholtzer, Mike Ohlman, Gregorio Petit, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jose Tabata

Notable Losses

Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey, Michael Saunders, Brett Cecil, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman, Josh Thole, A.J. Jimenez

Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Needs Addressed

When Encarnacion didn’t quickly accept the Blue Jays’ early offer of a four-year, $80MM contract, Toronto moved right on to its Plan B in another experienced slugger in Kendrys Morales. While Morales’ numbers over the last five years don’t match Encarnacion for either consistency or sheer production, the switch-hitter has still produced above-average offensive numbers for much of his career, and is just a season removed from a .290/.362/.485 line with the world champion Royals in 2015. Last year, Morales got off to a very slow start in the first two months before heating up to the tune of an .888 OPS over 423 PA from June 1 onward. Interestingly, Jays GM Ross Atkins suggested that Morales could see a “good deal” of action as a first baseman, though since Morales has played just 16 games at first since the start of the 2015 season, one would suspect Morales will fill more of a primary DH role.

Adding more versatility to the lineup is Steve Pearce, signed to a two-year deal despite undergoing elbow surgery last September. (Pearce has been limited to DH duty thus far in Spring Training but otherwise looks to be in fine condition.) Pearce appears to be the Jays’ first choice in left field, though he has also seen time in right, first base and even second base in recent years.

While he has been particularly good against southpaws, Pearce has an overall .266/.348/.485 slash line from 2013-16, making him a solid choice as an everyday player whenever Toronto decides to use him. Against left-handed pitching, Pearce could play first with Melvin Upton or Ezequiel Carrera handling left field. With a righty on the mound, Pearce could play left while Justin Smoak starts at first. Pearce could also spell Bautista in right field on occasion, or serve as a stopgap at second base if Devon Travis‘ availability for Opening Day is still in doubt.

Bautista didn’t enter free agency on a high note, as he was limited to just 116 games due to injuries during his age-35 campaign. It also didn’t help Bautista that the market for free agent hitters in general was rather a cool one this year, and while a number of teams (such as the Indians, Phillies and Orioles) were speculatively linked as interested candidates for a signing, a lack of concrete interest allowed the Jays to re-emerge as suitors in late December.

Though one mystery team reportedly offered Bautista a three-year deal worth more than $50MM, he instead rejoined the Jays for $18.5MM and just one guaranteed year. One would think that a vintage Bautista season in 2017 will lead the slugger to decline his end of a 2018 mutual option in search of a bigger multi-year contract without the anchor of the qualifying offer weighing down his market. If that ends up being the case, the Jays couldn’t really complain about getting one final outstanding year from one of the franchise’s greatest hitters, even if they’re no longer in line for draft compensation.

Re-signing Bautista allows the Jays to fill a need in right field, with the hope that a season of better health will allow him to provide better defense. Bautista still hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers despite his injury woes last year, though Toronto will be hoping for more production to help make up for Encarnacion’s departure.

The Jays replaced free agents Brett Cecil and Joaquin Benoit in their bullpen by signing another pair of veterans in lefty J.P. Howell and right-hander Joe Smith. Before signing Howell, Toronto also considered other southpaws such as Jerry Blevins and Boone Logan. The Blue Jays did consider making a bigger expenditure on their pen, as the team had some talks with the White Sox about David Robertson.

After parting ways with Josh Thole and Dioner Navarro, the Jays addressed their backup catching needs by signing veteran Jarrod Saltalamacchia to a minor league contract. “Salty” is the favorite to serve as Russell Martin‘s understudy, while the Blue Jays made some other minor acquisitions (i.e. Juan Graterol, Mike Ohlman) to build catching depth.

On the international signing front, Toronto made a splash by signing highly-regarded Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a seven-year, $22MM deal. The 23-year-old Gurriel hails from one of Cuba’s most respected baseball families (his father is one of Cuba’s greatest players and his older brother Yulieski plays for the Astros) and could potentially line up at several different positions around the diamond. Gurriel is probably at least a year away from the big leagues but he stands out as an intriguing building block for the future.

Questions Remaining

Going into the offseason, there was significant doubt as to whether the Jays could re-sign either Bautista or Encarnacion, and a reunion with both seemed totally out of the question. It seemed like the Jays themselves believed the latter scenario was true, as once Encarnacion rejected that initial offer, the team jumped to sign Morales to fill Encarnacion’s role. As the winter went on, however, the expected frenzy for Encarnacion’s service never materialized, as the first baseman signed a three-year, $60MM deal (with a $20MM club option year) with the Indians that fell below all industry projections.

Had the Jays held off on Morales and waited perhaps just a few more weeks before re-engaging Encarnacion and agent Paul Kinzer, it’s possible Encarnacion could have ended up back in Toronto at a relative discount price. Instead, the Jays spent $33MM on Morales (who’s only a few months younger than Encarnacion and an inferior batter with no defensive value) and $18.5MM on Bautista, who certainly wouldn’t be the first star hitter to hit a sudden decline in his late 30’s.

Given the slow-moving market for all the first base/DH types on the market, Morales himself might well have still been available at a lower price tag had the Jays not been in such a rush. If not Morales, then a scenario certainly exists where the Blue Jays would’ve indeed managed to get the band back together by re-signing both Encarnacion and Bautista.

The Jays headed into the winter with a lineup lacking in athleticism and left-handed hitters, and those issues are still on the books as Opening Day approaches. “Any organization would be looking to create more balance, more platoon effect and potentially more speed. But it’s just not as easy as deciding to do that and making that happen,” Atkins said during an end-of-the-season talk with reporters.

Indeed, the Jays’ main three position-player acquisitions don’t really check any of the boxes on Atkins’ general offseason wish list. Bautista and Pearce are both right-handed bats, while the switch-hitting Morales has better career splits as a left-handed hitter over his career but has posted a better OPS from the right side of the plate in three of the last four seasons. While Pearce can play multiple positions, Morales is more or less a full-time DH and Bautista’s declining defensive numbers of the last two years argue that he too is best deployed as DH or first baseman at this point rather than as a regular right fielder. Morales taking the bulk of DH at-bats also means a loss of lineup flexibility — there is now less opportunity to give Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, or Josh Donaldson a break from playing the field while still keeping their bats in the lineup.

The Jays at least checked in on a wide range of players (such as Dexter Fowler, Carlos Beltran, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Blackmon, Josh Reddick, Matt Wieters, Ian Desmond, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Sean Rodriguez and their own free agent Michael Saunders) who could’ve potentially been better fits from either a versatility standpoint or by adding more left-handed balance. Signing the likes of Fowler or Desmond would’ve cost Toronto a first-round draft pick since both players rejected qualifying offers, though one could argue the Jays essentially surrendered a first-rounder anyway by re-signing Bautista, who also rejected a QO.

Atkins has stated that his “best-case scenario” is to have Pearce as the regular left fielder and Smoak as the regular first baseman. Counting on Pearce for regular outfield duty on the Rogers Centre’s artificial surface is optimistic enough, as beyond his elbow surgery, Pearce has also hit the DL with oblique, hamstring and wrist injuries in the last four seasons. Believing that Smoak is a late bloomer who can go from being a virtual replacement player (0.3 fWAR in his seven big league seasons) into a viable everyday option at age 30 is perhaps even more questionable.

It remains to be seen if Morales can handle enough first base time to at least spell Smoak against left-handed pitching. If not, and Pearce or Bautista need to step in at the position, that opens up left or right field for an outfield mix that includes Upton, Carrera, Dalton Pompey, and Darrell Ceciliani. Until Pearce is fully able to play, at least, the plan for left field appears to be an Upton/Carrera platoon (though the Jays are reportedly also looking around for outfield help).

Upton was a big disappointment after joining the Jays at the trade deadline, and, aside from a brief resurgence with the Padres, has been a below-average offensive producer in three of the last four seasons. Carrera is a rare left-handed bat on the roster but his career numbers are actually better against southpaws than righties.

Ceciliani is another lefty bat who owns more traditional splits, though he also hasn’t shown much at the MLB level. The switch-hitting Pompey is still an unknown quantity after struggling badly early in the 2015 season and being limited to mostly pinch-running duty in his subsequent time in the majors. He is also currently being held out of action after suffering a concussion during the World Baseball Classic.

Still, hoping on unproven commodities like Pompey, Ceciliani, or first base prospect Rowdy Tellez underscores the lack of left-handed hitting options on Toronto’s roster. Against a right-handed starter, the Jays’ lineup could feature just Morales, Smoak (a modest career .720 OPS against righties) and perhaps the switch-hitting Saltalamacchia as options from the left side, if Martin is on a rest day. Signing a veteran outfield option like Angel Pagan would be an upgrade, though the Blue Jays are apparently unlikely to land Pagan.

Travis’ lingering injury problems create another potential issue at second base. For the short term, the Jays could platoon Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins at the keystone, a scenario that would help the team keep the out-of-option Goins on the roster. Pearce could play second in a pinch if Travis faced a lengthy DL stint, though it would seem almost a waste of Pearce’s versatility to lock him into his least-ideal position, not to mention the fact that using Pearce at second would also weaken left field and first base.

There were rumors earlier this winter that the Blue Jays would explore stretching Joe Biagini out as a starting pitcher so that the righty could go from being an unexpected bullpen breakout star to rotation depth. The latest word, however, is that Biagini will remain in the relief corps, so the Jays are still thin on depth beyond their solid starting five of Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman and Francisco Liriano. Mike Bolsinger could fill a long relief or swingman role, with MLB veterans Mat Latos and Lucas Harrell also in camp on minor league deals and Gavin Floyd also back on a minors contract as he looks to rebound from another injury-plagued season.

Deal Of Note

This section actually addresses multiple deals of note — namely the one-year, $3MM contracts the Jays handed to Howell and Smith, plus the one-year, $7.5MM contract Benoit signed with the Phillies and the whopping four-year, $30.5MM deal Cecil landed from the Cardinals.

Toronto took a slow-play approach to its bullpen needs, which ended up being a shrewd tactic given the early explosion in relief prices. Beyond the huge contracts given to star closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, you also saw the likes of Cecil, Mike Dunn, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa, Daniel Hudson and Marc Rzepczynski land multi-year commitments before the end of December. The market slowed considerably as the winter went on, and thus the Jays landed both Howell and Smith for less than the Phils paid Benoit, let alone the massive outlay that would’ve been required to re-sign Cecil.

Obviously, several factors beyond just asking prices went into these signings (age, various teams’ particular preferences, etc.), including the fact that Howell and Smith are both coming off relative down years by their standards. Cecil and Benoit were both better pitchers in 2016 than Howell and Smith, though the gap in performance doesn’t equal the $9MM gap in salaries the two pairs will earn in 2017. Given Benoit’s age (39), Cecil’s rather inconsistent performance last season and the general inherent risk of paying significant money for relief pitching, one could argue the Blue Jays positioned themselves to get more bang for their buck in waiting out the market to sign Howell and Smith in February.

Overview

For the second straight offseason under Atkins and club president Mark Shapiro, the Blue Jays relied more on modest free agent signings rather than trades to upgrade the roster. (In fact, Toronto was the only team that didn’t swing a single trade all winter.) The Jays clearly didn’t want to surrender what it would’ve taken to acquire the likes of McCutchen, Blackmon or Granderson, be it prospects or young talent on the MLB roster. Likewise, Atkins and Shapiro preferred to spread the Jays’ cash around rather than focus the spending on one big signing like Fowler, or what they thought it would’ve taken to re-sign Encarnacion.

Two winters of free agent acquisitions, even on non-blockbuster signings, add up; the Jays’ estimated payroll of over $162.6MM for 2017 will be the largest in franchise history. With this big payroll in mind and the fact that the Jays focused their attention on veteran signings, the club is clearly still in win-now mode after consecutive trips to the ALCS. For a team that has championship aspirations, however, the Jays are taking risks both in their lack of depth, and in apparently counting on underachieving players (i.e. Smoak, Upton, Carrera) to play notable roles. There isn’t much margin for error on this roster if, say, Bautista doesn’t have a bounce-back year, or if an unexpected injury fells a cornerstone player like Donaldson.

Still, with some good minor leaguers in the system, the Jays are leaving themselves room for improvement if they need to make a trade or two at the deadline. There’s also the possibility that the front office felt it didn’t need to make many changes to what is already a contending team, and that the combined contributions of Morales, Pearce and a revived Bautista will make up for the losses of Encarnacion and (to a lesser extent) Saunders.

What’s your take on the Blue Jays’ winter? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Blue Jays offseason?

C 44% (1,562)
B 36% (1,251)
D 12% (410)
F 5% (176)
A 3% (123)

Total votes: 3,522

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By Connor Byrne | at March 19, 2017 2:41pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

For the second straight winter, the biggest offseason question the Mets faced centered on whether they’d re-sign outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. And for the second straight winter, the Mets managed to prevent Cespedes from departing in free agency. As a result, he’ll once again serve as the centerpiece of New York’s lineup as the club tries to log three consecutive playoff berths for the first time in franchise history.

Major League Signings

Yoenis Cespedes, OF: Four years, $110MM
Neil Walker, 2B: One year, $17.2MM (accepted qualifying offer)
Jerry Blevins, LHP: One year, $6.5MM (club option for 2018)
Fernando Salas, RHP: One year, $3MM
Total spend: $136.7MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired cash from Orioles for RHP Logan Verrett
Acquired cash from Orioles for RHP Gabriel Ynoa

Notable Minor League Signings

Tom Gorzelanny, Wilfredo Boscan, Donovan Hand, Ben Rowen

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Bartolo Colon, James Loney, Alejandro De Aza, Kelly Johnson, Jon Niese, Justin Ruggiano

Mets Roster; Mets Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

Aside from Cespedes, whom we’ll address on a more in-depth level later, the Mets brought back three of their other free agents in second baseman Neil Walker and relievers Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas. General manager Sandy Alderson didn’t do anything else of significance, meaning the Mets are essentially relying on the same roster they did last year. Considering the Mets fought through a rash of injuries to win 87 games and earn a wild-card spot in 2016, Alderson’s continuity-based approach could prove beneficial.

One of the keys to the Mets’ success last season was Walker, whom they acquired from Pittsburgh in December 2015 for left-hander Jon Niese. That trade has already gone down as a heist for Alderson, as the perennially productive Walker had yet another quality season. Niese, whom the Mets later reacquired from the Bucs for reliever Antonio Bastardo, scuffled with both teams last year. That made it an easy decision for New York to decline Niese’s $10MM option for 2017 in November.

Walker, meanwhile, slashed .282/.347/.476 with a career-high-tying 23 home runs in 458 plate appearances and registered a personal-best 9.3 Ultimate Zone Rating as a defender. Consequently, the belief was he’d test free agency during the winter. While MLBTR projected Walker would garner a three-year, $36MM deal on the market, he ultimately eschewed an opportunity to shop his services around the majors in favor of the Mets’ $17.2MM qualifying offer.

It’s possible Walker, 31, was leery of leaving a high guarantee on the table because of the season-ending back surgery he had last September. Regardless, it seems that issue is behind him. The Mets, after all, nearly awarded Walker an extension in the three-year, $40MM neighborhood last month before talks hit a snag over his 2017 salary. So, although Walker’s long-term future is uncertain, the switch-hitter is in place to function as a linchpin in the Mets’ lineup for at least another year.

Both Blevins and Salas are back for the short term, too, albeit at much lower salaries than Walker. The bigger prize of the two is likely the 33-year-old Blevins, who was quietly great last season. Blevins pitched to a 2.79 ERA with 11.14 K/9 against 3.21 BB/9 in 42 innings and 79 appearances, during which he dominated left- and right-handed hitters alike. Relative to both his 2016 performance and the larger guarantees awarded to fellow lefty setup men like Brett Cecil (four years, $30MM), Mike Dunn (three years, $19MM) and Marc Rzepczynski (two years, $11MM) in free agency, Blevins’ contract looks quite fair for the Mets. Each of Cecil, Dunn and Rzepczynski signed fairly early in the offseason, but Blevins had to wait until February. It’s now possible he’ll work as the Mets’ primary bullpen southpaw through 2018, as his agreement includes a reasonably priced club option ($7MM) for its second and final year.

Salas also went without a contract until February, when he accepted a modest $3MM after a near-flawless showing down the stretch with the Mets last season. The team acquired Salas from the Angels on the final day of August, and he then proceeded to allow just four earned runs in 17 1/3 innings and rack up 19 strikeouts without issuing a walk. The 31-year-old was far less effective over the first five months of the season as a member of the Angels, with whom he posted a 4.47 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 56 1/3 frames. Last year was a microcosm of the inconsistent Salas’ career, which makes it a gamble (an affordable one, granted) that the Mets are looking to rely on him in a prominent late-game role this season. While the Mets’ best reliever, closer Jeurys Familia, likely serves a season-opening suspension resulting from an October domestic violence incident, they’ll turn to Addison Reed, Salas, Hansel Robles and Blevins as their top end-of-game pitchers.

Click to continue…

Questions Remaining

For a team with such a high ceiling, questions abound. Injuries are a significant concern, especially with respect to third baseman David Wright. The longtime franchise icon appeared in a meager 75 games over the past two seasons as he battled spinal stenosis and a herniated disk in his neck, and he’s now unable to throw because of a shoulder impingement. If Wright is again unavailable for most or all of this year, it won’t necessarily spell doom. After all, the Mets did get by fine without him in both 2015 and ’16, though past third base contributors like Daniel Murphy, Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson are no longer on their roster. And it would be rather optimistic to expect current hot corner options Jose Reyes and T.J. Rivera to replicate their success from last season.

Reyes, who rejoined the Mets last summer after the Rockies released him in the wake of a domestic violence suspension and a subpar 2015, slashed an above-average .267/.326/.443 in 279 plate appearances with New York. The 33-year-old’s highest ISO (.176) since 2008 largely drove that success, so it’s understandable that projection systems like ZIPS (.267/.326/.391) and Steamer (.256/.308/.375) aren’t bullish on him as the 2017 campaign nears. Rivera was outstanding, too, as he hit .333/.345/.476 in the first 113 trips to the plate of his career. The 28-year-old only walked three times, though, and given that he’s not exactly a burner, he won’t sustain his .360 batting average on balls in play going forward.

Fortunately for the Mets, they do have another utility infielder capable of manning third in Wilmer Flores, but they might need him at first base if starter Lucas Duda is unable to stay healthy. A back injury basically made the powerful Duda a non-factor last season, and he dealt with further troubles early in camp. Duda has since returned and raked in spring action, however.

As is the case with Duda, pitchers Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler have all looked good this spring after fighting through various injuries last season. The best of the four (and arguably the premier right-hander in baseball), Syndergaard, had the least problematic ailment – a bone spur in his elbow that didn’t require surgery. DeGrom (shoulder) and Matz (a “massive” bone spur) did undergo procedures on the heels of injury-truncated campaigns, on the other hand, and Wheeler hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014 on account of 2015 Tommy John surgery. There’s more worry over Matt Harvey than any of them, as the (former?) ace endured an uncharacteristically mediocre 2016 that concluded with July thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on his right shoulder. Harvey hasn’t fared well statistically in his return this spring, which would be a lot less alarming if not for the fact that his velocity, normally in the mid-90s, is down at least a couple miles per hour.

It’s clearly still too soon to panic in Harvey’s case, but it’s worth noting that the Mets lost their most durable starter, the revered Bartolo Colon, to the NL East rival Braves in free agency. Colon spent the previous three seasons as a member of the Mets, with whom he delivered no fewer than 191 2/3 innings in each campaign and combined for a decent 3.90 ERA. With his sturdiness and respectable production now out of the picture, and Wheeler perhaps poised to begin the year in extended spring training or the Mets’ bullpen, they’ll need Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz and Harvey to hold up physically. They also have the relatively unproven Robert Gsellman, who shrugged off a 5.73 ERA and 5.20 FIP in 48 2/3 Triple-A innings last season to put up a 2.42 ERA and 2.63 FIP in his first 44 2/3 major league frames. There are reasons to believe the hard-throwing Gsellman is for real, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron explained last month, but the track record is limited. While Seth Lugo teamed with Gsellman to unexpectedly pitch the Mets to the playoffs last season, he might begin this year in their bullpen if each of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Harvey and Gsellman get through the spring healthy.

As mentioned earlier, the most notable relief-related questions regarding the Mets center on Familia’s suspension length and Salas’ ability to sustain his performance from last year. The club is also hoping lefty Josh Smoker emerges in the wake of a 15 1/3-inning debut in which he yielded eight earned runs despite a whopping 25 strikeouts. Elsewhere in the ‘pen, a bounce-back year from another southpaw, Josh Edgin, could be in the cards after Tommy John surgery cost him all but 10 1/3 innings last season. His place in the Mets’ bullpen isn’t a sure thing, though, as they’re also considering Sean Gilmartin, Tom Gorzelanny and Paul Sewald. Gilmartin and Gorzelanny have been mixed bags in the big leagues, while the soon-to-be 27-year-old Sewald hasn’t yet cracked the majors.

Most of the concerns regarding the Mets’ pitchers focus on health, but the main catcher to whom they’ll throw, Travis d’Arnaud, comes with both durability and performance questions. D’Arnaud has battled one injury after another dating back to his days as a well-regarded prospect, including a shoulder strain last season that likely contributed to his disappointing .247/.307/.323 line in 276 PAs. He was far better the previous year (.268/.340/.485), but even that was over just 67 games and 268 trips to the plate. It might be foolhardy to count on d’Arnaud, then, yet the Mets didn’t prioritize upgrading over him during the winter. They’ll instead rely on d’Arnaud, Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki, who combined to offer some of the majors’ worst offensive production from behind the plate last season. To their credit, all three provide defensive value as adept pitch framers.

Speaking of defensive value, it could be hard to come by at multiple outfield spots, where the Mets will start Curtis Granderson in center and Jay Bruce in right. Granderson, who primarily played right over the previous three years, hasn’t seen extensive action in center since 2012. Then a member of the Yankees, Granderson was a liability in the grass (minus-seven DRS, minus-18.1 UZR in 1,364 innings), and he’s now 36 years old. Defensive metrics have regularly been down on Bruce, which was again the case last year (minus-11 DRS, minus-8.9 UZR). Moreover, it seems if things had broken to the Mets’ liking over the winter, he’d be in another uniform.

Facing the possibility of Cespedes’ departure, the Mets exercised Bruce’s $13MM club option and were then unable to find a trade to their liking for the latter after the former re-signed. As a result, they kept Bruce, who joined the team in a trade with the Reds last July and then hit poorly down the stretch (.219/.294/.391 in 187 PAs). Bruce does have eight 20-home run seasons under his belt, including 33 last year, so it’s possible he’ll rebound to help the Mets’ offense. If not, he won’t offer the club any value, and it’ll then turn to currently blocked youngster Michael Conforto. With Cespedes, Granderson, Bruce and Duda on the roster, there’s no way for Conforto to get consistent at-bats, so the 24-year-old might head back to Triple-A and wait for an injury or an underwhelming showing from someone ahead of him on the Mets’ depth chart. In the meantime, the Mets figure to mitigate some of the problems Granderson and/or Bruce could cause in the field by using the defensively brilliant Juan Lagares as a late-game replacement.

Deal Of Note

Unlike last year, when Cespedes sat on the open market until late January, a deal came together quickly this offseason for the Cuban-born star. It didn’t help Cespedes’ cause a year ago that he had to compete with other highly touted free agent outfielders in Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Chris Davis (primarily a first baseman) and Alex Gordon, the first three of whom landed contracts richer than his three-year, $75MM pact.

In addition to guaranteeing a $27.5MM salary for 2016, the Mets retained Cespedes 13-plus months ago by including an opt-out for this past offseason. The latter factor appealed to Cespedes, who took advantage of his ability to void the deal this year in order to test free agency again.

Considering he was widely regarded as the foremost player set to hit the market, it’s no surprise that Cespedes ended up with easily the richest contract in the 2017 class. However, that still didn’t require an overly long commitment from the Mets, who re-upped Cespedes in late November on a four-year, $110MM accord. That was reportedly the max to which the Mets were willing to go, and their proposal ultimately defeated several other suitors’. It also stopped the Mets from taking other routes, including signing another big-name free agent like center fielder Dexter Fowler or right fielder Jose Bautista. New York showed interest in both as potential contingency plans, though it seems Fowler would’ve made a better fit than Bautista for a team with a logjam of corner outfielders.

With Cespedes now under their control for the long haul, the Mets are left to hope he ages gracefully into his mid-30s. Now entering his age-31 season, Cespedes is coming off two of the best offensive campaigns of his five-year career, having combined for a .286/.340/.537 line with 66 home runs in 1,219 PAs. He also saw his walk rate rise dramatically in 2016 (9.4 percent – up from 6.1 percent from 2012-15), which was the product of chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. If Cespedes’ plate discipline gains stick, that would obviously help justify the Mets’ investment, as would bouncing back from the quad injury that slowed him last season. Cespedes had both his worst baserunning and defensive year as he contended with that issue, and it also hurt his cause that he had to help pick up the slack in center. In 495 innings there, he logged woeful numbers (minus-seven DRS, minus-20.6 UZR/150); conversely, he was stellar across 550 innings in left (four DRS, 9.0 UZR/150), where he has usually thrived.

Overview

It’s easy to imagine 2017 going awry for the Mets if injuries persist, though last year’s team certainly overcame plenty of misfortune to finish among the NL’s top five clubs. With Cespedes and Walker still around to complement what could again be an elite pitching staff, the Mets should push for a playoff spot and perhaps compete for a World Series. Indeed, the club is “all in” on pursuing its first title since 1986, according to Alderson, who has put together the most expensive season-opening roster in franchise history. Should the need arise, Alderson will be ready to add reinforcements during the summer, and he may have to if the Mets are going to overtake the reigning NL East champion Nationals for the division.

What’s your take on the Mets’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Mets' winter?

B 57% (1,103)
A 24% (460)
C 15% (290)
D 2% (43)
F 1% (27)

Total votes: 1,923

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals New York Mets

Offseason In Review Series

By Mark Polishuk | at March 18, 2017 2:55pm CDT

Here are the links to each team’s entry in the MLBTR Offseason In Review series. This post will be updated as more entries are published over the coming weeks, and you can find a permanent link to this index in the “Tools” dropdown menu above.

AL East

Blue Jays
Orioles
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees

AL Central

Indians
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox

AL West

Angels
Astros
Athletics
Mariners
Rangers

NL East

Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nationals
Phillies

NL Central

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2016-17 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

By charliewilmoth | at March 17, 2017 8:47pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Cardinals added two top free agents this offseason and said goodbye to some longtime contributors as they tinkered with the core that won them 86 games in 2016.

Major League Signings

OF Dexter Fowler: five years, $82.5MM
LHP Brett Cecil: four years, $30.5MM
Total spend: $113MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Jose Adolis Garcia, Eric Fryer

Trades And Claims

Acquired RHP Chris Ellis, RHP John Gant and 2B Luke Dykstra from Braves for LHP Jaime Garcia
Lost OF Jeremy Hazelbaker on waivers to Diamondbacks
Lost LHP Tim Cooney on waivers to Indians

Extensions

RHP Carlos Martinez: five years, $51MM (includes club options for 2022 and 2023)

Notable Losses

Brandon Moss, Matt Holliday, Garcia, Seth Maness, Brayan Pena

Needs Addressed

The Cardinals ended the 2016 season by parting ways with a longtime star, giving the aging Matt Holliday a $1M buyout rather than exercising a $17MM option. Though he hits capably, the 37-year-old Holliday no longer provided enough offense to offset his salary and health and defensive issues. He headed to the Yankees, who can use him as a DH. The Cardinals also saw the departure of another veteran slugger, Brandon Moss, who didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the club before he ultimately landed with the Royals.

The Cardinals thus set about adding another outfielder who could bump 2016 center fielder Randal Grichuk to a corner. They were linked to a number of high-profile names, including Adam Eaton, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond, before ultimately signing Dexter Fowler to a five-year, $82.5MM deal.

The Cardinals’ seemingly singular focus on finding a center fielder rather than a corner outfielder initially seemed odd, since advanced stats actually identified Grichuk as a better defensive center fielder than Fowler and several of the other rumored options. UZR pegs Grichuk as being a few runs above average in about 1,200 career innings in center field, and Defensive Runs Saved is even more bullish, rating Grichuk as 14 runs above average. Both stats rate Fowler as a hair above average last year, but below average (sometimes significantly so) in the five seasons before that. Fowler will also be 31 later this month, and though his athleticism makes him likely to age relatively gracefully, his defense seems unlikely to improve as he ages and slows. The Cards reached agreement with Fowler during the Winter Meetings — relatively early in the offseason, and significantly before most of the other outfield bats signed. They also paid almost $20MM more for him than MLBTR projected he’d receive. One wonders whether they might have gotten better value had they kept Grichuk in center and signed one of the many cheaply available sluggers to join him and Stephen Piscotty in their outfield.

There was also another cost to signing Fowler, in that the Cardinals forfeited their top 2017 draft pick, No. 19 overall, to complete the signing. That loss will hurt, particularly since the team also lost its next two picks (Nos. 56 and 75) as part of its penalty for its role in the Astros hacking scandal.

Perhaps that’s overthinking it, however. The only free agent outfielder who compared favorably to Fowler in overall value was Yoenis Cespedes, who was already off the market by the time the Cards landed their man. Unlike some of the defensively challenged sluggers who languished on the free agent market, Fowler’s well-rounded game insures him somewhat against decline. At least in the short term, he should upgrade the Cardinals’ offense with his on-base ability and their defense by virtue of being significantly better than players like Holliday or Moss. And, of course, in signing Fowler, the Cardinals lured a talented player away from the rival Cubs, who replaced him with the much less costly Jon Jay.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Cardinals also acted quickly to fill a bullpen spot that opened when lefty Zach Duke had an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery in October. Another lefty, Tyler Lyons, was set to begin 2017 on the DL after having knee surgery as well. To replace them, the Cards signed Brett Cecil to a four-year deal worth $30.5MM, making a notable commitment to a reliever who isn’t a closer and doesn’t have a track record of dominance, at least not at first glance. (They also gave Cecil a full no-trade clause.) Cecil’s modest 3.93 ERA last season, though, was propelled by a 1.47 HR/9 that’s likely to return to more normal levels in 2017, and his other underlying numbers (11.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9) are more consistent with the ERAs he posted in 2014 and 2015, which were well under three.

The offseason was also kind to left-handed relievers as a group, with non-stars like Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepcyznski also faring quite well. Of course, Cecil is not a generic lefty (he allowed a .799 OPS against righties in 2016 but dominated them the two previous seasons), so there wasn’t a clear comparable for him on the market. In the end, his $30.5MM deal ranked fourth among this winter’s relief-pitcher contracts, behind only Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Cecil’s addition gives the Cardinals a second good lefty to join Kevin Siegrist. He should bolster a bullpen that, thanks in part to injuries to Duke, Lyons and the now-departed Seth Maness, suddenly looked somewhat thin. Cecil will pitch in the late innings, with the terrific Seung Hwan Oh occupying the closer’s role and Jonathan Broxton, Matthew Bowman and wild card Trevor Rosenthal filling in the gaps. (The Cardinals planned to experiment with the idea of having Rosenthal start, but those plans were likely dashed after a spring injury; he now could occupy a multiple-inning relief role.) Newcomer John Gant could be a factor as well, along with Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich.

The Cardinals also extended 25-year-old righty Carlos Martinez through 2021, with club options for 2022 and 2023. The $51MM deal buys out two of what would have been Martinez’s free agent seasons and gives the Cardinals the chance to control his rights through his age-31 campaign. Martinez would have been eligible for arbitration for the first time this past winter. It’s hard to find comparable recent extensions for starting pitchers, mostly because teams have been reluctant in recent seasons to commit to starting pitchers for five-year periods when they have the option of taking them year to year. Martinez himself has had brief bits of shoulder trouble in both the minors and the Majors, and no starting pitcher is wholly exempt from injury concerns — as fellow Cardinal Lance Lynn, who received a three-year deal a season before missing the 2016 campaign to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, can probably attest. That written, Martinez seems worth the risk. He possesses elite velocity and ground-ball ability, and he ramped up to a career-high 195 1/3 frames in 2016. Acquiring the right to control his age-28 through age-31 seasons offers the Cardinals enormous upside.

Questions Remaining

The Cardinals possess what would appear to be good, consistent players throughout their roster, but their collection of aging veterans and young players looks to be a bit short on star talent. Yadier Molina is now 34, and the days of his five-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 appear to be behind him. Matt Carpenter is coming off an outstanding 2016 season, but the relative impact of his bat should be limited somewhat by the Cardinals’ decision to play him at first base, a move the team made in November to improve the team’s infield defense and clear the way for players at other infield positions. Fowler is fresh off a career-best season and could regress. Jhonny Peralta will be 35 in May and didn’t perform after returning from a wrist injury in 2016. Younger players like Piscotty and Grichuk profile more as very good players than stars. The offense’s best shot at a star-caliber performance might belong to shortstop Aledmys Diaz, and despite his outstanding 2016 rookie season, that seems like an iffy proposition given the (understandable) uncertainties in the Cuban defector’s track record.

In the rotation, Martinez seems like as good a bet as anyone on the roster to function as a true top-level starter. Behind him, the Cardinals will again lean on Adam Wainwright, who’s now 35. He turned in a fine but uninspiring 2016 season after missing much of 2015 due to a ruptured Achilles. Mike Leake‘s first season in St. Louis did little to change his profile as a mid-rotation pitcher, although he did post a career-best 1.5 BB/9. Lynn is a question mark after missing all of last season, even though he was quietly terrific in four straight seasons before that. Michael Wacha seems a reasonable bet to rebound after struggling in 2016, but his shoulder health remains a concern. And the team might sorely miss top prospect Alex Reyes, who will be sidelined for the entire 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery last month. Luke Weaver, Gant and others give the Cardinals solid depth, but their rotation still perhaps appears a bit vulnerable behind Martinez.

The questioning tone of the previous two paragraphs may give too negative an impression — the Cardinals have plenty of talent, and much of their success in recent years has been due to surprisingly strong performances by players who didn’t look like impact types before they started posting big numbers. Jedd Gyorko‘s 30-homer showing last season after two straight bad years with the Padres is but one example. The Cardinals organization has earned way too much credit to be dismissed. It’s notable, though, the degree to which the Cards are leaning on good players rather than great ones, especially as many of their key assets age.

Speaking of Gyorko, the Cardinals also still must decide how to divvy up playing time in their infield. Despite Gyorko’s strong performance last season, Kolten Wong appears to have the inside track on the second base job, with the Cardinals understandably still interested in the potential for his package of defensive and baserunning tools to add up to something more. Diaz and Peralta currently slot at shortstop and third, respectively, leaving Gyorko without a regular position. Between Wong’s inconsistency and Peralta’s age, though, Gyorko will likely find plenty of playing time. Peralta in particular is coming off a poor season, and it’s easy to imagine Gyorko taking over the starting role at third if Peralta doesn’t bounce back. Gyorko could also occasionally give Carpenter a rest against tough lefties. Greg Garcia, who quietly had a terrific year in 2016, will be a factor at the leftmost three infield positions as well.

Finally, while Molina will obviously handle the bulk of the Cardinals’ catching duties in 2017 (health permitting), the team faces the possibility of a big change at the catcher position in the near future. Molina’s contract contains a mutual option for 2018, but he could be nearing the end of his time in St. Louis, and the team is excited about Carson Kelly, who played in the high minors last season. Molina and the Cardinals are still toying with the possibility of an extension, but the Cards will likely be wary of a big commitment to a 34-year-old catcher, even one as crucial to the team’s recent success as Molina has been. Kelly’s development could also be a factor.

Deal Of Note

In early December, the Cardinals traded lefty Jaime Garcia to the Braves, receiving righties Gant and Chris Ellis, along with infielder Luke Dykstra. It’s a move the Cardinals might not mind having back, thanks to Reyes’ injury. At the time, though, they were looking at what appeared to be a rotation surplus, and Garcia, who had a $12MM option for 2017 before hitting free agency, seemed like the best candidate to depart.

Gant isn’t the pitcher Garcia is, but he’s optionable and controllable, giving the Cardinals a useful bit of flexibility even if he never improves much on his surprisingly interesting 2016 rookie season, in which he posted a robust 8.8 K/9 over 50 innings (albeit with a 4.86 ERA and 3.8 BB/9). He could also become a bullpen asset at some point. Ellis adds a bit of upside to the deal — he walked 5.4 batters per nine innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year but still has an outside shot at a MLB career if he can improve his command. If he does, a future in the bullpen is a possibility. Dykstra looks like a fringe prospect after struggling somewhat in 2016, but he only turned 21 in November and could still emerge as a potentially useful second baseman.

Overview

The Cardinals should remain tough in 2017, although they increasingly look like a team in transition. They will, and should, try to make the playoffs this season, but it will also be interesting to see how younger players like Diaz, Wong, Grichuk, Piscotty, Kelly, Martinez and Weaver develop.

What’s your take on the Cardinals’ winter? (link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Cardinals' offseason?

B 51% (907)
C 31% (548)
A 9% (167)
D 6% (101)
F 3% (53)

Total votes: 1,776

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | at March 16, 2017 8:58pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

As they open SunTrust Park for the 2017 season, the Braves have begun to transition toward competitiveness — though they carefully avoided any lengthy veteran entanglements this winter.

Major League Signings

Bartolo Colon, SP: one year, $12.5MM
Sean Rodriguez, IF: two years, $11MM
R.A. Dickey, SP: one year, $8MM
Kurt Suzuki, C: one year, $1.5MM
Total spend: $33MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Jaime Garcia from Cardinals in exchange for INF Luke Dykstra, SP John Gant, SP Chris Ellis
Acquired 2B Brandon Phillips and $13MM (covers all but $1MM of Phillips’s 2017 salary) from Reds in exchange for RP Andrew McKirahan, RP Carlos Portuondo
Acquired 2B/OF Micah Johnson from Dodgers for PTBNL or cash
Acquired RP Luke Jackson from Rangers for RP Brady Feigl, SP Tyrell Jenkins
Acquired SP Luiz Gohara, RP Thomas Burrows from Mariners for OF Mallex Smith, RP Shae Simmons
Acquired OF/C Alex Jackson, SP Tyler Pike (as PTBNL) from Mariners for SP Rob Whalen, SP Max Povse
Claimed RP Kevin Chapman from Astros
Claimed 1B/OF Adam Walker from Orioles
Claimed RP Armando Rivero from Cubs in Rule 5 draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Lane Adams, Andrew Albers, Xavier Avery, Emilio Bonifacio, Blaine Boyer, Rex Brothers, Sanders Commings, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz, David Hale, Sam Freeman, David Freitas, Balbino Fuenmayor, Blake Lalli, Jacob Lindgren, Kris Medlen, Eric O’Flaherty, Danny Reynolds, Matt Tuiasosopo, Colin Walsh

Extensions

Ender Inciarte, OF: six years, $30.525MM ($9MM club option for 2022; $1.025MM buyout)
Jim Johnson, RP: two years, $10MM

Notable Losses

Jed Bradley (claimed), Ellis, Gant, Tuffy Gosewisch (claimed), Williams Perez (released), A.J. Pierzynski, Simmons, Smith, Chris Withrow (non-tendered)

[Braves Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

The pace of moves coming from the Atlanta front office remains dizzying. This time around, while there were still many forward-looking transactions, the club increasingly turned its attention to investing in the 2017 roster.

That’s not to say that the Braves went wild in a push to win now; after all, the club won only 68 games in 2016, despite a strong finish. Instead, the vast bulk of the club’s investments in veteran players are of the one-year variety. The club clearly hopes to boost its on-field product with a new park opening while steering clear of the kinds of moves that could hamper more dedicated future efforts at contending.

GM John Coppolella promised that the rotation would be the focus, and he followed through on that early. Atlanta added two of the game’s oldest players, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, on mid-priced, one-year deals. Talented lefty Jaime Garcia joined the fold, too, in a deal that cost the organization two reasonably promising pitching prospects in John Gant and Chris Ellis.

All said, the rotation promises to be worlds better than the 2016 unit, though it’ll likely be more of a reliably solid unit than any kind of top-tier staff. With the trade rumors in the rear-view — at least until the deadline — top hurler Julio Teheran will look to repeat a strong season. High-octane righty Mike Foltynewicz seems the obvious choice for the fifth spot, and he’ll also seek to build off of the promise he showed in 2016.

The Braves would surely be glad to see that quintet succeed for a full season, though it’s possible to imagine a summer trade if the organization isn’t sticking in the postseason picture. Garcia, in particular, could hold appeal if he performs. Meanwhile, Atlanta will see whether Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Lucas Sims can regain their footing, while veterans such as John Danks, Andrew Albers, and perhaps old favorite Kris Medlen will take up spots in the depth department. Most importantly, perhaps, the club will closely watch the progress of touted arms as Sean Newcomb, Patrick Weigel, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and the newly acquired Luiz Gohara as they plot a course for the future.

Despite all the changes in the rotation, the bullpen largely returns in its 2016 form. Jim Johnson took an extension just before reaching free agency, and he’s expected to handle closing duties. That job could be contested at some point during the year, though, particularly if Arodys Vizcaino can find his form or Mauricio Cabrera proves as overwhelming as his stuff. Josh Collmenter and Ian Krol are back after agreeing to arb deals, while Jose Ramirez also figures to have a spot locked down. Righty Chaz Roe, who showed well (11.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.60 ERA) in 20 frames after a mid-season claim, is in the mix too, though he’s struggled badly in Spring Training thus far. Rounding out the pen may come down to a camp battle involving veteran minor-league signees Eric O’Flaherty, Sam Freeman, Rex Brothers, Blaine Boyer, and perhaps also 40-man members Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris.

The Braves’ most notable moves on the position-player side came at second base. The team thought it had its man in Sean Rodriguez, who got a two-year deal after a career year in Pittsburgh, but a terrifying car crash left him with an injured shoulder and a lengthy rehab timeline. He could miss the majority of the 2017 campaign. That led the Braves to pivot back to Brandon Phillips, who was acquired for a light price and will hold down the fort at second while the team waits for top prospect Ozzie Albies to return from injury, finish his development, and join exciting young shortstop Dansby Swanson in the bigs.

While there was chatter that the Braves would pursue an upgrade behind the dish, the club ultimately passed on free agents such as Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, and the recovering Wilson Ramos. Instead, the club added Kurt Suzuki on a modest pact to join Tyler Flowers in some kind of time share. Anthony Recker remains on hand as a third option, so things are set for the time being. In the long term, though, the catching position remains one of uncertainty.

Questions Remaining

Most of the organization’s notable holes were plugged in some way, as might have been expected. But there’s plenty of variability on this roster, and there are a few areas which remain unsettled as the season draws near.

There was speculation before the offseason that Atlanta might look to upgrade at third base, where the team is set to feature Adonis Garcia. The 31-year-old has shown flashes of ability in his brief time in the majors, but he has yet to show the kind of consistency that warrants regular playing time. Garcia improved with the bat and the glove after a rough first half in 2016, though he still ended the year with a below-average .273/.311/.406 batting line and negative grades on the bases and in the field.

To be fair, parting with significant resources to add a player such as Todd Frazier (via trade) or Justin Turner (through free agency) probably wasn’t sensible from a long-term perspective. And it’s certainly possible that Atlanta foresaw a scenario where Rodriguez would have shifted to the hot corner upon the ascension of Albies, or where Garcia would give way to prospect Rio Ruiz. But the Braves could have placed a smaller bet on someone like Luis Valbuena or Trevor Plouffe to bolster the third base situation, so there were alternatives. Whether the team made the right call to give Garcia another full season of playing time remains to be seen.

The outfield, too, still seems in need of a supplemental player. Ender Inciarte is undoubtedly deserving of the vast bulk of the time in center, which he’ll surely receive (more on him below). But Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis aren’t exactly mid-prime corner options. While they’ll see the lion’s share of the time, their own value would likely be maximized if they receive regular rest.

Among the organization’s current options, veteran Emilio Bonifacio may have the inside track on such a role. He’s more of a utilityman than a true outfielder, but would generally meet the team’s reported desire for a right-handed hitter who can play center. (Bonifacio does have a good bit of MLB experience there; the switch-hitter has also traditionally fared better against southpaw pitching.) Other internal reserve possibilities, such as Micah Johnson and Adam Walker, don’t quite match the job description, and Johnson is now out of the picture in the short term anyhow after suffering a fractured wrist. There’s been some chatter that the Braves are interested in veteran Angel Pagan, though it seems the team hasn’t offered enough to draw him in.

There are broader bench questions, too. The left-handed-hitting Jace Peterson is a rather obvious choice to earn one spot; he’ll likely spend some time spelling the team’s right-handed-hitting second and third basemen. Otherwise, light-hitting utilityman Chase d’Arnaud seems to have the inside track. If it’s d’Arnaud, Peterson, and Bonifacio to go with the second catcher, and the Braves use an eight-man pen, that doesn’t leave much in the way of offensive ability on the bench.

On the pitching side, there is certainly a fair bit of depth, and the bullpen is in solid shape. Despite all the additions to the rotation, though, that unit may not be as great an asset as might be hoped. Dickey and Colon are both over 40; while that hasn’t stopped them from being sturdy and effective to this point, there’s always the possibility of a significant fall-off given their age. Garcia carries long-term health questions and wasn’t that effective in 2016. And while there’s talent beyond that group, only Teheran has clearly established himself as a high-quality MLB starter.

It obviously wouldn’t have made much sense for the Braves to prioritize 2017 too heavily in making winter moves. But the club did dabble in the market for such quality, controllable arms as Jose Quintana and Chris Archer. Any such acquisition would’ve been a major trade that could well have required paying too high a price (quite possibly including Swanson), but clearly that kind of arm would’ve represented a more significant upgrade. The Braves will be content to roll the dice with what they have, and to keep knocking on those doors, but as presently constituted the rotation has plenty of potential to disappoint.

Deal Of Note

The rebuilding process isn’t just about securing young talent. It’s also about sorting through it and planning ahead for when it’s all available at the MLB level.

When the Braves struck the stunning deal last winter that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks, much of the focus landed on Swanson — and rightfully so. But the deal also delivered Blair and the underappreciated Ender Inciarte, who many thought might be flipped.

Inciarte, however, wasn’t dealt. And though he struggled early, he turned things on in the second half and ended up with another 3+ WAR campaign. While the Braves had another chance to weigh trade offers, the club chose instead to commit to the Super Two-eligible player this winter in the form of a five-year contract extension.

The total outlay to Inciarte — just over $30MM — is low enough that it won’t hurt too badly if the investment falls flat. That’s an unlikely outcome, as his defensive and baserunning abilities give him a fairly sturdy floor as a useful fourth outfielder even in a downside scenario.

While the Braves have been downright aggressive in hunting for high-upside players in recent years, and have also committed some near-term funds to veterans, the Inciarte deal is another kind of transaction entirely. Much like the division-rival Phillies’ nearly identical deal with Odubel Herrera, this extension represents the placement of a piece of the puzzle for seasons far beyond the present. Particularly given the most likely alternative — shopping Inciarte for yet more pre-MLB talent — the contract is as clear an indication as any that the organization is ramping up for contention.

Overview

Few will pick the Braves to make the postseason in 2017, or even to remain in the hunt as summer turns to fall. But there’s an expectation for improvement — and, perhaps, also the beginnings of some pressure. Fan expectations are rising with the new park and new player investments. Some of the organization’s hyped upper-level players are entering the phase where they will need to prove their worth in the majors or step aside. And the plans of the front office will increasingly be put to the test as the organization seeks to convert the talent it has accumulated into wins.

What’s your take on the Braves’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Braves' winter?

B 54% (3,173)
A 20% (1,188)
C 20% (1,179)
D 4% (239)
F 2% (122)

Total votes: 5,901

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | at March 15, 2017 9:07am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

Even though the Astros underwhelmed en route to 84 wins and a third-place finish in the American League West in 2016, they still entered the offseason in enviable shape. When previewing their winter in October, I wrote, “Given the plethora of talent that’s already in place, a productive offseason from general manager Jeff Luhnow would restart the hype machine for Houston next spring.” Luhnow followed through, leading PECOTA to project an AL-high 93 wins for his club this year.

Major League Signings

Josh Reddick, OF: Four years, $52MM
Carlos Beltran, DH: One year, $16MM
Charlie Morton, RHP: Two years, $14MM
Total spend: $82MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired C Brian McCann and cash considerations from Yankees for RHPs Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman
Acquired cash or a player to be named later from Phillies for RHP Pat Neshek
Claimed OF Nori Aoki off waivers from Mariners
Claimed LHP Ashur Tolliver off waivers from Angels

Notable Minor League Signings

C.J. Riefenhauser, Reid Brignac, Juan Centeno, Dayan Diaz

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

Neshek, Jason Castro, Doug Fister, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena

Astros Roster; Astros Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

The 2016 Astros featured one of the majors’ least valuable outfields, a seven-man group which compiled a woeful .224/.302/.380 batting line (good for an AL-worst 86 wRC+) in 2,187 plate appearances. Carlos Gomez, whom Houston released in August, was one of the primary reasons for the unit’s bottom-of-the-barrel output. But nearly everyone else in the septet also failed to impress (only George Springer pulled his weight), so Luhnow elected to make over the outfield during the offseason. As a result of his moves, Springer will shift from right to center after logging just 17 appearances at the latter spot over his first three seasons.

The changes started with an early November waiver claim, Nori Aoki, whom the Astros picked up from the AL West rival Mariners. At $5.5MM, Aoki should give the Astros an acceptable left field regular at a reasonable price, though the 35-year-old’s upside is limited. The Japan native has been a competent hitter since debuting stateside in 2012, having slashed .286/.353/.387 while registering a minimal strikeout rate (8 percent) in 2,670 trips to the plate. However, there’s little power to speak of – as his career ISO (.100) shows – and he’s no longer a stolen base threat. After swiping anywhere from 14 to 30 bags in each of his first four seasons, Aoki was successful on only seven of his 16 attempts a year ago. He also had an ugly season versus same-sided pitchers (.227/.299/.258), albeit only over 108 PAs. Historically, Aoki has held his own against both left- and right-handed hurlers. He has also typically been a decent defender (6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating, one Defensive Run Saved), but his minus-four DRS and minus-5.5 UZR from 2016 pale in comparison to both his career numbers and the brilliant work of predecessor Colby Rasmus (20 DRS, 14.9 UZR last season). The Astros understandably said goodbye to Rasmus, however, on the heels of an injury-plagued season in which he hit a meager .206/.286/.355 in 417 tries.

Aoki figures to serve as a stopgap as the Astros await the arrivals of both Kyle Tucker, who tops out at No. 19 in Baseball America’s prospect rankings, and Derek Fisher (83rd on MLB Pipeline’s list), whereas Josh Reddick will occupy a spot in the team’s outfield for the long haul. At $52MM, the right fielder is in possession of the largest contract the Astros have awarded since Jim Crane bought the franchise in 2011. Reddick debuted in earnest that year with the Red Sox and has since slashed a respectable .259/.321/.435 in 2,809 PAs while thriving in the field (54 DRS, 41.2 UZR). The lefty-swinging 30-year-old does come with troubling platoon issues, though, having batted .218/.280/.360 line in 800 PAs against same-handed pitchers. He hit a nadir in that department last year with a hideous .155/.212/.155 line over 104 trips to the plate as an Athletic and Dodger. Should that carry into this season, the Astros do have righty-hitting outfield reserves he could platoon with in Jake Marisnick and Teoscar Hernandez, though utilizing a fairly expensive player in a timeshare wouldn’t be ideal.

In addition to securing Aoki and Reddick, the Astros acquired two more prominent players for their lineup in catcher Brian McCann and designated hitter Carlos Beltran. All of Aoki, Reddick, McCann and Beltran bat from the left side (Beltran’s a switch-hitter; more on him later), meaning an Astros team that went into the offseason with mostly right-handers came out with a balanced lineup. The four newcomers will complement righties in Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Evan Gattis.

While the power-hitting Gattis ostensibly could have taken the reins at catcher (he earned mostly positive defensive marks from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner in 52 games there last year), Houston instead swung a trade for the more established McCann. In doing so, the Astros lost a couple promising arms, per FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, and subsequently saw previous starting backstop Jason Castro and his excellent pitch-framing skills head to the Twins in free agency. Nevertheless, the 33-year-old McCann isn’t exactly a slouch behind the plate, and he’s a much better offensive player than Castro. Although McCann is no longer the force he was in Atlanta, where he slashed .277/.350/.473 from 2005-13, he is coming off a three-year stretch in which he hit an above-average .232/.320/.456 with the Yankees.

Among the pitchers who will throw to McCann is Charlie Morton, who will slot into the Astros’ rotation after totaling only 17 1/3 innings last season. Then with the Phillies, Morton suffered a torn hamstring in late April and didn’t pitch again. Morton did show encouraging signs during a tiny sample of work, though, as he ran his average fastball velocity up to a personal-best 93.3 (well above his 91.5 lifetime mark) and posted a 12.3 percent swinging-strike rate (far better than his 7.8 percent career figure). The 33-year-old has since thrown even harder this spring, and if those velocity gains stick, he could be a lot more interesting than the pitcher he was with Atlanta and Pittsburgh from 2008-15. To his credit, Morton did have some strong seasons with the Pirates, and his career 55.4 percent ground-ball rate makes him a good fit for a Houston team which plays in a homer-friendly ballpark and has a quality defensive infield. The biggest concern with Morton arguably centers on health, as he wasn’t able to avoid the disabled list in any of the previous five seasons. On the other hand, the still-unsigned Doug Fister – whom Morton is replacing – was one of just two Astros who threw at least 180 innings last year.

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Questions Remaining

Regardless of whether it’s fair, many are reluctant to brand the Astros as legitimate contenders because of perceived weaknesses in their rotation. In addition to the less-than-durable and typically mediocre Morton, they’re set to run out other starters off injury-shortened seasons in Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. Keuchel is only two years removed from winning the AL Cy Young, but he tumbled to earth last year and then saw his season end in late August on account of shoulder inflammation. Despite an untenable walk rate (5.0 per nine), the curveball-loving McCullers stymied opposing offenses, though he dealt with shoulder and elbow issues along the way and didn’t pitch past Aug. 2.

While Morton, Keuchel and McCullers are now healthy, the Astros’ other two expected starters – Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers – aren’t at full strength. Even when they are, nobody would count either as a front-line starter, which is arguably a need for the Astros. Management doesn’t seem content with the team’s rotation options, as president Reid Ryan observed in December that Houston’s missing an ace and Luhnow attempted to trade for one throughout the offseason. Luhnow’s efforts focused on the likes of Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Danny Duffy, Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana, among others. Sale ultimately went from the White Sox to the Red Sox; Archer is still with the Rays, who aren’t in any rush to move him; Duffy signed an extension with the Royals; and Gray is now injured. That leaves Quintana, who looks like a shoo-in to leave the ChiSox via trade sometime soon. It’s no secret that the Astros want Quintana (as MLBTR’s Quintana archives show), but they’re also unwilling to deal a package consisting of Tucker and right-handers Francis Martes and Joe Musgrove to nab the ace southpaw.

Assuming a trade doesn’t come together by Opening Day, the Astros might not enter 2017 with a No. 1-caliber starter (though Keuchel certainly was one from 2014-15). Nevertheless, they will have at least six major league-caliber starters, including Musgrove, who showed well in his 62-inning debut last year and now looks ticketed for Triple-A. The 21-year-old Martes, meanwhile, is a unanimous top 40 prospect who will join Musgrove in Fresno and could break into the Astros’ rotation this season. Yet another Fresno-bound starter, David Paulino, is on a few top 100 lists, while Brady Rodgers is also on hand as further depth.

Sticking with pitching, Luhnow called the need to find another left-handed reliever as “glaring” going into the winter. He didn’t end up adding any to the Astros’ bullpen, though, meaning they’ll again count on Tony Sipp as their lone southpaw. Although Sipp was dreadful last season, he was highly effective in the preceding two seasons. Even if he’s unable to bounce back this year, Houston should still have an elite bullpen with Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz setting up closer Ken Giles. All five of those righties handled lefty-swingers a year ago.

Supporting the Astros’ pitchers will be a lineup featuring three stars (Altuve, Correa and Springer) and several useful complements (Beltran, Reddick, McCann, Aoki and Gattis). There are questions centering on their other two prominent hitters, Gurriel (first base) and Bregman (third base). With uncertainty surrounding those two, it’s possible the Astros will miss Luis Valbuena, who signed with the Angels after a two-year stretch in Houston in which he manned both corner infield spots and batted .238/.329/.446 across 835 PAs.

The 32-year-old Gurriel had been a superstar in both Cuba and Japan, which helped lead the Astros to sign him to a $47.5MM contract last July, but he didn’t post appealing results in his late-season debut in the majors. Over 137 PAs, Gurriel batted a subpar .262/.292/.385. It would be unwise to write Gurriel off based on that small sample, of course, and Luhnow said last week he expects Gurriel “to be a high-average hitter who is going to hit a lot of doubles, have double-digit home run power and play very good defense at first or third or wherever he’s asked to play.”

Bregman offers even more hope, as the 22-year-old lived up to his elite prospect hype by slashing .264/.313/.478 in his first 217 major league PAs last season. However, as Tony Blengino of FanGraphs explained earlier this month, Bregman’s batted-ball data indicates he was quite fortunate to have as much success as he did. That doesn’t mean Bregman will disappoint in 2017, but it might be wise to tamp down short-term expectations.

Deal Of Note

McCann was teammates with Beltran in each of the past three seasons in New York, and the former helped the Astros reel in the latter, according to Luhnow. Even with recruiting help from McCann, Houston had to pony up $16MM for Beltran, who encountered a robust market for his services despite being a one-dimensional player entering his age-40 season. Along with the Yankees, who had interest in re-signing Beltran, the Red Sox, Indians and Blue Jays were in the mix for the potential Hall of Fame outfielder. The Astros were confident they were going to pick up either Beltran or now-Indian Edwin Encarnacion, and they emerged with the older, less effective and cheaper player. That sounds harsh, but it’s not meant to knock Beltran, who remains an outstanding hitter.

Although he struggled in his first year as a Yankee, perhaps because of an injury, Beltran bounced back over the previous two seasons to combine for a terrific .286/.337/.493 line with 48 home runs – including 29 in a 2016 season spent between New York and Texas. Still in the Lone Star State, Beltran will try to help the Astros overtake the Rangers, winners of back-to-back AL West titles. Of course, this isn’t Beltran’s first stint in Houston – that came after it acquired him from the Royals in a June 2004 trade. Beltran flourished, especially when he nearly mashed the Astros to a World Series berth that October, and then left as a free agent at season’s end. Thirteen years later, he should again provide a threatening offensive presence on an Astros team with championship aspirations.

Overview

Back in June 2014, when the Luhnow-led Astros were wrapping up a long rebuild, Sports Illustrated declared that the franchise would win its first World Series in 2017. While that might prove overly optimistic roughly eight months from now, it’s clear that the Astros belong on a short list of legitimate championship contenders heading into the regular season. At the very least, thanks in part to Luhnow’s maneuverings from this past winter, Houston should be the favorite to win its division – a feat the team hasn’t achieved since 2001, when it was a member of the National League Central.

What’s your take on the Astros’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Astros' winter?

B 60% (777)
A 28% (363)
C 9% (121)
D 1% (16)
F 1% (10)

Total votes: 1,287

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

By charliewilmoth | at March 9, 2017 9:05pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Brewers’ offseason saw them continuing to add young talent, but they also acquired several veterans who should help make them fun to watch as they integrate younger players onto their roster.

Major League Signings

1B Eric Thames: three years, $16MM (including $1M buyout on $7.5MM option for 2020)
RHP Neftali Feliz: one year, $5.35MM
LHP Tommy Milone: one year, $1.25MM (non-guaranteed)

Notable Minor League Signings

Joba Chamberlain, Ryan Webb, Eric Sogard, Ivan De Jesus Jr..

Trades And Claims

Acquired 3B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington and PTBNL from Red Sox for RP Tyler Thornburg
Acquired C Jett Bandy from Angels for C Martin Maldonado and RHP Drew Gagnon
Claimed 1B Jesus Aguilar from Indians
Lost RHP Miguel Diaz to Twins in Rule 5 Draft

Notable Losses

Chris Carter, Thornburg, Blaine Boyer, Chris Capuano

Needs Addressed

The Brewers’ offseason mostly continued their recent trend of rebuilding what had been an aging roster, but their activity this winter also showed small signs that they’re looking toward contending in the near future.

Their first big move of the winter was to replace first baseman Chris Carter with Eric Thames, who signed a three-year, $16MM deal the same day the Brewers designated Carter for assignment, thereby avoiding taking him through the arbitration process. The Carter move was eyebrow-raising — it isn’t every day that a team drops a 41-homer hitter who’s set to receive a seemingly reasonable salary. The arbitration process, though, rewards counting stats like home runs and likely would have minimized Carter’s shortcomings, such as his strikeout and contact issues and lack of defensive value. MLBTR projected in October that Carter would receive $8.1MM through arbitration, and there are suggestions the salary might have gone higher. That sum seems paltry for a prolific home-run hitter, but the apparent ambivalence to one-dimensional power sources on this winter’s market strongly indicates that teams aren’t overly interested in sluggers who don’t bring something else to the table. The Brewers’ inability to trade Carter, as well as his eventual signing with the Yankees on a mere $3.5MM deal, suggest that the league didn’t think Carter was worth nearly as much as the arbitration process would have paid him.

In Carter’s place, the Brewers landed Thames, whose unusual background makes him an interesting and somewhat outside-the-box fit for the team’s first-base opening. Thames spent two forgettable seasons with the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2011 and 2012 before heading to the NC Dinos in South Korea, where he emerged as one of the KBO’s most fearsome sluggers. Even in a league dominated by offense, Thames’ numbers stood out — he hit 124 home runs in Korea in a mere 1,634 plate appearances. He’s also still just 30, young enough that he could have several more power-hitting seasons left in him.

There’s still very limited data on how KBO stats will translate to the Majors, and the existing precedents for prime-age sluggers point in different directions — Jung Ho Kang has been a success (his off-the-field problems notwithstanding), while Byung Ho Park‘s first season was a failure. Perhaps the biggest difference between Kang and Park prior to their arrivals in the states, though, was their plate discipline. Kang had 293 strikeouts in his last three seasons in Korea, while Park had a very high 399 (including 161 in his last season there). Thames, like Kang, had 293 whiffs in his three seasons in the KBO, suggesting a balanced approach that could play well as he returns to the big leagues. The well-rounded offensive game Thames demonstrated in Korea, where he posted OBPs above .420 in all of his three seasons, also contrasts sharply with that of Carter. No one really knows how Thames’ game will play in the big leagues at this point, but the Brewers, as a rebuilding club that didn’t have an obvious fix at first, were in great position to gamble on a relative unknown.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Brewers also swapped catchers with the Angels, taking what would appear to be a slight short-term hit to acquire more youth and team control. Martin Maldonado, who headed west in the deal, is a well-regarded pitch framer and an outstanding backup. He only has two years of control remaining before free agency, though, and his struggles to hit for average limit his upside as a starter. In return, the Brewers received Bandy, who’s less of a known quantity but who hit passably in 2016 in his first full year in the big leagues. He’s also three and a half years younger than Maldonado and has five years of team control remaining.

In the bullpen, the Brewers added a new closer in Neftali Feliz, compensating in large part for the departures of Tyler Thornburg (see below), and, before him, Jeremy Jeffress and Francisco Rodriguez. Feliz’s $5.35MM guarantee fell well short of the three-year, $18MM deal MLBTR predicted he’d receive (although Feliz’s contract does contain bonuses for games pitched and games finished that could be quite lucrative if he serves the whole year as a closer). Perhaps the biceps tendinitis that ended Feliz’s 2016 season a month early had a significant effect on his market.

That’s not to say signing with the Brewers didn’t have benefits for Feliz, however. A one-year pact and an opportunity to pitch the ninth could allow him to market himself as a closer next offseason, potentially landing a bigger deal than he would have received had he taken a multi-year contract to pitch elsewhere in a setup role. The Brewers, meanwhile, got a high-velocity righty who could help the back end of their bullpen and be a valuable trade chip in July should they fall out of the race.

The Brewers also added Tommy Milone on a cheap, non-guaranteed deal. Milone will compete for a spot in the back of the Brewers’ rotation, potentially giving the team a left-handed arm to slot alongside what figures to be a large collection of righties. If he doesn’t win that job, he could work as a lefty out of the bullpen (although he’s had relatively even splits throughout his career, meaning he isn’t an obvious fit as a LOOGY). The soft-tossing Milone has never been a star, and he’s coming off a poor season in Minnesota. He had four straight years before that in which he was at least modestly productive, though, and at $1.25MM, he represents only a tiny risk for a team that might need him to eat innings.

Elsewhere, the Brewers attempted to extend infielder Jonathan Villar on a $20MM contract, but were rebuffed. The structure of the deal isn’t currently known, but it presumably would have bought the Brewers control over one or more years beyond 2020, after which Villar is scheduled to become a free agent. Villar is coming off a breakout 2016 in which he led the NL in stolen bases and batted .285/.369/.457; it appears both he and the Brewers are optimistic about his ability to perform at a high level. He’ll play second base in 2017 after manning mostly shortstop and third last year. The move, along with the acquisition of Travis Shaw (see below), bumps Scooter Gennett from the starting lineup after two straight years of just over replacement-level performance.

Questions Remaining

As with most rebuilding teams, the Brewers have no shortage of questions about their roster. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez outlined those questions heading into Spring Training. Notably, the Brewers must decide how best to distribute playing time at catcher between Bandy, Andrew Susac and Manny Pina, as well as which five pitchers should make up a rotation that currently appears to be up in the air beyond Junior Guerra and Zach Davies.

In general, though, most of the organization’s big questions won’t be answered until later. For now, they’ll try to sort through what’s becoming a growing collection of young talent. There are surely positions where they’re more comfortable, such as second base (Villar), shortstop (former top prospect Orlando Arcia, although he struggled in his 2016 rookie season) and center field (where they have 2016 breakout performer Keon Broxton). The Brewers also have capable or potentially capable veterans at first base (Thames), third base (Shaw) and left field (Ryan Braun). Elsewhere, they’ll attempt to address uncertainty with quantity, but it still could be argued that they have the potential for at least average performances at every position on the diamond.

The pitching staff is a different story, and the Brewers’ rotation in particular currently looks weak, with Matt Garza, Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta and Milone among the many merely passable possibilities to fill out the rotation beyond Guerra and Davies (who don’t exactly project to be aces themselves). But that group could solidify in the coming years with the additions of prospects like Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz and Brandon Woodruff, with others perhaps coming along also via trade or the team’s development pipeline. Despite the Feliz addition, the bullpen doesn’t look particularly strong either, although the Brewers’ relief situation could look quite different by the time it looks poised to contend, and they can always add relievers in future offseasons.

The Braun deal the Brewers reportedly pursued with the Dodgers last summer, which would have netted them veteran starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy along with other talent (Yasiel Puig and a pair of prospects of unknown identity), perhaps demonstrates what the Brewers might be thinking should they attempt to move Braun again later. McCarthy would have given the team a potentially productive — albeit risky — rotation option in his second year back after April 2015 Tommy John surgery. The more important likely reason McCarthy came up in trade reports was because the Dodgers wanted to offset some of Braun’s salary, but from the Brewers’ perspective, the fact that McCarthy might have become a decent rotation option was surely a nice perk.

Speaking of that unconsummated trade, one issue that remains unsettled is Braun’s continued presence on the Brewers’ roster despite the recent departures of many of his peers. There weren’t many juicy Braun rumors this offseason, despite the reported potential Dodgers blockbuster last summer. One factor might have been the crowded OF/1B/DH market, which caused many sluggers to languish in free agency well into the new year. Braun is signed through 2020 and controllable through 2021, so the Brewers theoretically have time to trade him, although he already has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to all but six teams, and he will acquire an ironclad no-trade clause if he reaches 10-and-5 status in mid-May.

Deal Of Note

The Brewers’ trade of Thornburg to the Red Sox for Shaw, Mauricio Dubon, Josh Pennington and a player to be named looks like it improves the organization for the long term, perhaps without even sacrificing much in the short term. Thornburg has, to be sure, become an elite reliever, using an outstanding fastball to post a 2.15 ERA, 3.4 BB/9 and an excellent 12.1 K/9 last season. But he has only three years of control remaining. Shaw, meanwhile, has five, and has already become a productive regular in his first season and a half in the big leagues. And as good as Thornburg was last year, his ERA was ahead of his peripherals. Projection systems like Steamer and ZiPS see Thornburg coming back to earth somewhat in 2017, and Shaw, a credible regular third baseman who seems capable of average to above-average defense at either corner infield spot, providing greater overall value.

Shaw, it should be noted, faded badly in 2016, batting just .194/.259/.360 in the season’s second half. And at 27 in April, he doesn’t appear to have tremendous upside — one of the better-case scenarios for him is that he becomes merely a very good player, rather than a star. He might, at some point, need to be platooned as well. Also, the value of dominant bullpen arms has rarely been higher than it is now, meaning that even though Thornburg lacks the closer pedigree of the recently traded relievers who have commanded the largest hauls (such as Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel), he should have fetched quite a bit on the trade market.

Even so, it appears there’s decent potential for Shaw alone to outproduce Thornburg right away. And that’s even before considering the rest of what the Brewers received. Dubon is still just 22, can play shortstop, and broke out in Class A+ and Double-A last season. He doesn’t seem likely to hit for much power, but he could post good on-base percentages in the Majors. And while Pennington is a lottery ticket, he’s an interesting one, with a mid- to high-90s fastball and a decent curve. There’s also the player to be named, who hasn’t yet been revealed.

Overview

2017 isn’t likely to be the Brewers’ year, but their future appears promising — in addition to their interesting group of position players at the big-league level, they now boast a strong farm system headed by recent trade acquisitions like Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Dubon, Hader and Ortiz, along with top draft picks like Corey Ray, Trent Clark and Lucas Erceg. The team seemingly has many more good position players than pitchers, although GM David Stearns can address that imbalance on the trade market as he attempts to mold an increasingly interesting collection of talent into the next good Brewers team.

What’s your take on the Brewers’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Brewers' offseason?

B 54% (738)
C 24% (333)
A 15% (208)
D 5% (73)
F 2% (27)

Total votes: 1,379

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | at March 6, 2017 5:15pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series.

You can’t really call it a “quiet” offseason when you swing perhaps the winter’s biggest blockbuster, though the Red Sox seem to be counting on internal pieces just as much as their few new faces in order to defend their AL East title.

Major League Signings

Mitch Moreland, 1B: One year, $5.5MM
Total spend: $5.5MM

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Chris Sale from White Sox for 2B Yoan Moncada, SP Michael Kopech, OF Luis Alexander Basabe and RP Victor Diaz
Acquired RP Tyler Thornburg from Brewers for 3B/1B Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon, RHP Josh Pennington and cash/player to be named later
Acquired 2B Josh Tobias from Phillies for SP/RP Clay Buchholz
Claimed 1B/OF Steve Selsky off waivers from Reds
Claimed IF Josh Rutledge from Rockies in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Brian Bogusevic, Dan Butler, Cesar Cabral, Erik Cordier, Matt Dominguez, Kyle Kendrick, Junior Lake, Edgar Olmos, Mike Olt, Carlos Quentin, Hector Velazquez

Extensions

None

Notable Losses

David Ortiz (retirement), Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa, Buchholz, Moncada, Kopech, Shaw, Ryan Hanigan, Bryan Holaday

Red Sox roster; Red Sox payroll information

Needs Addressed

After signing David Price last winter and trading for Rick Porcello in December 2014, the Red Sox made yet another offseason splash to upgrade their rotation, and arguably the biggest one yet in Chris Sale. The southpaw has been nothing less than one of baseball’s best pitchers over the last five seasons, posting a 3.04 ERA, 5.08 K/BB rate, 10.0 K/9 and 27.6 bWAR over 1015 2/3 innings. Not only is Sale still apparently at the top of his game heading into his age-28 season, he also offers ace production at a relative bargain price, as he is owed $12MM this year and then $12.5MM in 2018 and $13.5MM in 2019 (assuming the Sox exercise club options on those last two seasons).

Sale came at a heavy prospect cost, though Boston has enjoyed such incredible minor league depth in recent years that the club could justify trading blue chippers like Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. An established ace like Sale is naturally more help for a win-now team like the Sox than Kopech would be in the rotation, while Moncada was blocked at his natural position (second base) by Dustin Pedroia and blocked in the outfield by Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and rookie Andrew Benintendi (the consensus top prospect in baseball). Even with the uncertainty at the hot corner, Moncada was still somewhat expendable given that prospect Rafael Devers may be a year or two away from becoming the third baseman of the future.

Speaking of third base, the Sox dealt starter Travis Shaw to Milwaukee as part of another multi-player deal that saw righty reliever Tyler Thornburg come to Fenway Park. Thornburg enjoyed a big year out of the Brewers pen in 2016, and he is both considerably younger and harder-throwing than veterans Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler, who left in free agency. Thornburg projects to be Craig Kimbrel‘s top setup option, though Spring Training may decide if Joe Kelly has a share of that role or if the Sox could simply use both men in the eighth inning on a situational basis. (Carson Smith could factor in the late innings, too, when he finally returns from Tommy John surgery.)

Adding Sale to an already somewhat crowded rotation picture allowed the Sox to trade Clay Buchholz to the Phillies. Injuries and inconsistency kept Buchholz from ever truly living up to expectations, though the righty certainly had his share of impressive moments over his decade in Boston. The Red Sox chose to exercise their $13.5MM option on Buchholz last fall rather than simply let him walk, a decision that allowed the club to net some return for him when Philadelphia took on all of Buchholz’s salary and still gave up an interesting infield prospect in Josh Tobias.

The Red Sox were linked to several notable first base/DH-type sluggers to fill David Ortiz’s big shoes, but decided against pursuit of a star name. Boston instead inked Mitch Moreland to a one-year deal. The move allows Hanley Ramirez to take most of the DH duties, as Ramirez will likely only play first when the Sox face a lefty pitcher, with Chris Young spelling Moreland in the lineup as the designated hitter. Signing Moreland also doesn’t create a long-term roadblock at the position since the Sox think very highly of minor league first baseman Sam Travis, who missed much of last season due to a torn ACL but could reach the majors by late 2017 if he continues hitting.

Questions Remaining

It isn’t a coincidence that the Red Sox saved the bulk of their offseason business until after the new collective bargaining agreement was finalized in late November. The new luxury tax rules were of particular importance to the team. Since the tax threshold was raised to $195MM this season, the Sox were able to emerge from the offseason a few million dollars beneath the the limit. If they can stay there through year’s end, the club can “reset its clock” in the calculation of overage penalties (which penalize repeat offenders at a higher rate, and are also more costly under the new CBA).

As a result, the offseason saw the Red Sox show some financial restraint, which annoyed some fans who felt bigger moves were necessary in the wake of Ortiz’s departure and the team’s abrupt postseason exit. Moreland ended up being the answer at first base instead of Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Carlos Beltran or Mike Napoli; while the Sox at least checked in on these and other notable 1B/DH names, the club chose future financial flexibility over making an “all-in” move to win in 2017.

Given the amount of core talent on the Sox roster, it can be argued that Boston didn’t really need to make such a big splash now when they’re well-positioned to contend for the next several years. (Plus, getting under the tax threshold now will save millions, and potentially set the Red Sox up to be larger players in the star-studded 2018-19 free agent market.) The Sox also have enough potential at their so-called question mark positions that these spots might not end up being problems at all, though there’s definitely some uncertainty in a few areas.

With Moncada, Shaw and veteran Aaron Hill all no longer third base options, the Red Sox are putting a lot of faith in Pablo Sandoval‘s ability to resurrect his career after a miserable 2015 and an injury-writeoff of a 2016 campaign. Sandoval has gotten himself in much better shape, though it’s hard to know what to expect from the Panda in the wake of two lost seasons. If Sandoval can’t produce, the Sox could turn to Brock Holt, Marco Hernandez and/or Josh Rutledge to handle third until the trade deadline, when you’d expect Boston to be in play for such potential trade candidates as Todd Frazier of the White Sox, the Royals’ Mike Moustakas or others.

The Sox stood pat at catcher, hoping that Sandy Leon can find an acceptable balance between his scorching-hot summer performance and his ice-cold September or that Christian Vazquez can develop some hitting to go with his outstanding defense. Former top prospect Blake Swihart is still a bit of a wild card due to his lack of a position; while he has the most value to the Sox if he can get a foothold as a catcher, Swihart developed a problem throwing balls back to the mound during spring camp. Needless to say, Swihart’s future as a catcher is still a work in progress, and he might end up spending much of 2017 at Triple-A working on his defense and making sure he’s fully recovered from his season-shortening ankle injury.

Price and the Red Sox received a big scare early in Spring Training when Price was shelved with elbow soreness, though fears of Tommy John surgery were allayed when the lefty was diagnosed with bone spurs and a mild flexor strain. Still, Price won’t throw for a couple of weeks and will almost certainly begin the season on the DL, which underscores a potential lack of depth in the Sox rotation.

Even with Price healthy, the three-pitcher battle between Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez over the final two rotation spots carried its share of question marks. All three of those starters had injury issues in 2016, with Pomeranz and Wright perhaps the most concerning of the trio — Wright pitched just ten innings after August 9 due to a shoulder injury and Pomeranz received a stem cell injection in his throwing elbow after the season to battle some recurring soreness in the joint. It’s also worth noting that Wright and Pomeranz didn’t have much of a track record of success as starters prior to 2016 and Rodriguez has only shown flashes of his vast potential during his brief MLB career.

It’s probably unlikely that all three will struggle (be it from injuries or just poor performance) this season, though there’s suddenly much less room for error if Price ends up with a significant DL stint. Looking at the farm, the Red Sox could turn to Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson or Henry Owens, plus veteran Kyle Kendrick was signed to a minor league deal. While none of these names offer much in the way of stability, the fact that Boston has so many arms in the upper minors made it difficult for the club to attract much in the way of reliable veteran depth this winter.

Deal Of Note

While obviously no one expects Moreland to replicate Ortiz’s stunning production, Moreland has some dependability issues even as a platoon bat. The left-handed hitting Moreland has only been a solid (.258/.321/.457) rather than a standout performer against right-handed pitching over his career, and he managed just a .700 OPS against righty pitching last season. He enjoyed a big 2015 season that saw him hit .278/.330/.482 with 23 homers and a 117 wRC+ over 515 PA for the Rangers, but apart from that career year, Moreland has generated just 2.7 bWAR over his 641 career games played outside of the 2015 season.

As noted, however, there was sound financial logic behind Boston’s decision to sign Moreland instead of a pricier first base bat. On the field as well, Moreland makes sense as both a big defensive upgrade and a doorway to lineup flexibility. Moreland won a Gold Glove last year, posting a 9.2 UZR/150 and +7 Defensive Runs Saved that were far beyond Ramirez’s below-average grades in both metrics. By improving their first base defense, the Red Sox are guarding their infield against a probable defensive dropoff at third, as Shaw exhibited some very good glovework at the hot corner.

While more and more teams have preferred to rotate players through their DH spot in recent years in order to keep everyone fresh, the Sox didn’t really have that luxury due to Ortiz (though his bat more than made up for such drawbacks). While Ramirez will be the DH most days, the Red Sox can also give veterans like Pedroia or Sandoval a break while still keeping them in the lineup.

Even if Moreland has another blah year at the plate, the Red Sox will be satisfied if he can continue wielding a strong first base glove. While Sox fans may cringe whenever, say, Encarnacion or Beltran go yard for the Indians or Astros, they may also appreciate that Ortiz’s “replacement” (from an overall value standpoint, not hitting-wise) is actually in left field. Boston received a combined -0.1 bWAR out of the left field position in 2016, and everyone in baseball expects far more than that from the highly-touted Benintendi.

Overview

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has historically been pretty bold about using young talent as trade chips, and the Sale deal goes near the top of the list of Dombrowski’s trades of prospects for established talent. As much as Sale, Thornburg or Moreland could be the final pieces of the puzzle, however, this season could be defined by how some players can solidify any weak spots on the roster. Scenarios like Benintendi living up to the hype, Price returning from injury with no ill effects, at least two of the three rotation candidates firmly earning the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs or Sandoval recapturing some of his old Giants form would go a long way towards a deeper postseason run for the Sox.

What’s your take on the Red Sox’ winter? (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason?

F 25% (2,436)
B 24% (2,370)
A 22% (2,166)
D 16% (1,545)
C 13% (1,227)

Total votes: 9,744

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

By charliewilmoth | at March 1, 2017 4:52pm CDT

This is the first entry in MLBTR’s annual Offseason In Review series. We’ll be reviewing the other 29 clubs over the next several weeks as the season approaches.

The Pirates were at the center of multiple potential blockbuster trade rumors this winter, but none of the rumored deals came to fruition. Now, Pittsburgh looks poised to enter the 2017 with a familiar core while several young talents hope to cement themselves as big league contributors.

Major League Signings

RHP Ivan Nova: three years, $26MM (re-signed)
RHP Daniel Hudson: two years, $11MM
RHP Lisalverto Bonilla: Major League contract (later lost on waivers to Reds)

Notable Minor League Signings

Eury Perez, Jason Stoffel, Josh Lindblom, Casey Sadler (re-signed), Angel Sanchez (re-signed)

Trades And Claims

Acquired IF Phil Gosselin from Diamondbacks for RHP Frank Duncan
Acquired RHP Pat Light from Twins for PTBNL or cash
Selected LHP Tyler Webb from Yankees in Rule 5 Draft

Extensions

LHP Wade LeBlanc: one year, $750K, plus $1.25MM 2018 option or $50K buyout

Notable Losses

Neftali Feliz, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, Jeff Locke, Ryan Vogelsong

Needs Addressed

Despite being connected to trade talks involving star lefty Jose Quintana throughout the winter, the Pirates’ offseason was generally a conservative one, designed to retain and augment the team’s top assets rather than adding more top assets to join them. That’s not to say, though, that their winter failed to prepare them for the upcoming season. The Bucs will have their work cut out for them as they attempt to compete with the Cubs again this year — that would be a tough assignment for any team, really. Still, there’s reason to think they can improve on their 78-win 2016 total, perhaps dramatically so if things go right.

The Bucs’ 2016 season was full of disappointments, particularly in their rotation. Ace Gerrit Cole couldn’t stay healthy and failed to build on his outstanding 2015. Francisco Liriano was a disaster, and he ended up heading to Toronto in a dubious August trade. Jon Niese, acquired prior to the season for a quality second baseman in Neil Walker, was a mess, posting a 4.91 ERA in Pittsburgh before heading back to New York. And Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong, perhaps somewhat predictably, failed to pick up the slack. The Bucs’ rotation, formerly one of the team’s strengths, finished fifth-worst in the NL with a 4.67 ERA.

The disappointments extended to the lineup, where the Pirates got less than they were probably hoping for from Francisco Cervelli, Josh Harrison and John Jaso. By far the Bucs’ biggest disappointment, though, was Andrew McCutchen. The former MVP batted a mere .256/.336/.430 and looked markedly slower than he had in the past. His declining speed was a factor in his horrific -18.7 UZR and -28 DRS, with both statistics marking him as easily the worst regular center fielder in the game.

There’s reason to think the Pirates can avoid some of 2016’s troubles, even though they made few big on-paper moves. In the rotation, they re-signed Ivan Nova, who pitched better than he ever had after heading their way at the 2016 trade deadline. (More on Nova below.) They can also hope for a full, healthy season from Cole, and they should continue to receive help from a burgeoning group of young pitchers that includes Jameson Taillon (who had a strong rookie season in 2016), Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault and, if he can improve his control, top prospect Tyler Glasnow.

This offseason, the Pirates first attempted to address the McCutchen issue by trading him. The superstar has only one guaranteed year left on his contract, plus a team option for 2018, and with top prospect Austin Meadows on the way and Starling Marte looking like a far better defensive center fielder than McCutchen, McCutchen seemed like an increasingly strained fit in Pittsburgh. The Bucs were repeatedly connected to the Nationals as a potential trade partner, with the Nats reportedly offering pitchers Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning, plus another player. Those plans were scuttled when the Nationals traded Giolito, Dunning and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton instead. It then appeared the Pirates would keep McCutchen, and though there were whispers about other teams (including the Mets and Blue Jays) having interest, the Bucs never seemed all that likely to trade him once their talks with the Nationals fell through.

So the Pirates will keep McCutchen, at least for now, and they’ll head into 2017 with a new plan for how to use him. While McCutchen’s 2016 season was disappointing, he did end it well, batting .284/.381/.471 over the season’s final two months. It remains to be seen whether he can retain that pace going forward, of course. But the Pirates also addressed his defensive struggles by changing their outfield alignment — the very capable Marte will man center field going forward, with Gregory Polanco in left and McCutchen in right. McCutchen has a weak arm, suggesting that right field is an odd fit, but right field in PNC Park is small. Also, McCutchen is better at going to his right than to his left, suggesting that he could fare decently in right by staying relatively near the foul line.

The Bucs also addressed their bullpen, which had been depleted by the losses of Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline and Neftali Feliz to free agency, by signing Daniel Hudson to a two-year deal. Hudson produced a 5.22 ERA with the Diamondbacks last season, but his peripherals were somewhat more promising than that, and his fastball averaged 96 MPH in his second full year back from his second Tommy John surgery. He shares his good velocity, extensive injury history and modest recent performance record with pre-2016 Feliz, who had a successful comeback season with the Pirates last year.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The team also extended Wade LeBlanc, who they’d acquired late in the 2016 season, for one year plus a 2018 option. The move, while minor, seemed like a somewhat odd one given the large number of potential lefty options in the team’s bullpen (including Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, Antonio Bastardo and Tyler Webb, who they selected in the Rule 5 Draft shortly thereafter). Even granting that, as a closer, Watson’s handedness doesn’t matter much, the Pirates might address their seemingly too-big collection of lefties sometime in Spring Training, perhaps by trading Bastardo. The team might have dealt Bastardo in the winter had the lefty free-agent market not been so slow to develop.

Late in the offseason, the Bucs also struck a small deal to add second baseman Phil Gosselin after the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment. Gosselin is somewhat of an odd fit for a Pirates 25-man that perhaps more acutely needed a backup shortstop, a position Gosselin rarely plays. But Gosselin has a bit of on-base ability and can be optioned, and the Pirates cited the need for more depth at third base as Jung Ho Kang began a DUI trial in South Korea that would delay his arrival to camp. If Kang is out for any extended period, though, David Freese would likely get most of the starts at the hot corner.

Questions Remaining

The Pirates will have to make up for the departures of two key members of a very productive 2016 bench. Sean Rodriguez batted .270/.349/.510 while playing seven positions last year before heading to the Braves (who have already lost him for most or all of 2017 after a nasty car crash). And Matt Joyce posted a .403 OBP (including a remarkable 59 walks) in 293 plate appearances with the Bucs last year before signing with the Athletics.

The Pirates have a reasonable replacement for Rodriguez in Adam Frazier, who joined the Pirates in June after posting a .401 OBP in Triple-A and hit .301/.356/.411 the rest of the way, appearing at second, third and the three outfield positions. The lefty-swinging Jaso, who figures to be supplanted by Josh Bell at first base, will effectively replace Joyce, providing some of Joyce’s on-base ability but little of his power.

Joining Frazier and Jaso on the Pirates’ bench could be infielder Alen Hanson. The former top prospect has hit a wall in the high minors and batted just .266/.318/.389 last year with Triple-A Indianapolis. He also isn’t really a shortstop any longer and therefore isn’t a great fit for a Bucs bench that can use help at that position. He is, however, out of options, and would be a candidate to be claimed on waivers.

[Related — Camp Battles: Pittsburgh Pirates]

How Bell will adapt to first base turns out to be one of the Pirates’ biggest questions in itself. He’s a highly rated prospect who’s hit well throughout the minors, but he moved from outfield to first base following the 2014 season, and he’s struggled to adjust to the position defensively, looking awkward at the position in 23 games in the big leagues in 2016. He also hasn’t developed the home-run power of an archetypal first baseman, although there’s hope that will continue to develop. If it does, and if Bell can play respectable defense at first, he could become the Pirates’ first three-win first baseman since Kevin Young in 1999. If not, things could get ugly, although probably no uglier than a long string of underwhelming recent performances by Pirates first basemen like Pedro Alvarez, Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez.

While most of the Pirates’ roster spots appeared set heading into Spring Training, it’s unclear who will join Cole, Taillon, Nova and Kuhl in the Bucs’ rotation. There are plenty of choices, including Brault, Drew Hutchison and Trevor Williams. By far the most intriguing, though, is Glasnow, who approaches the big leagues as the Pirates’ best-regarded starting pitching prospect since Cole debuted in 2013.

Glasnow, though, struggled with his control last season, issuing 5.0 BB/9 in both the minors and Majors. That’s hardly the kiss of death, and might even be understandable for a then-22-year-old pitcher with a 6-foot-8 frame. But Glasnow also almost never threw his changeup in 23 1/3 big-league innings. He now says he worked on his changeup in the offseason, and the Pirates asked him to alter his grip on the pitch as well. It remains to be seen whether his change can be a good pitch, or whether he’ll even be confident enough to use it regularly in games. Of course, some starters have done just fine relying very heavily on two pitches, but if Glasnow were to develop a viable third pitch, that could only help him. In any case, the considerable questions about Glasnow’s ability to perform well out of the gate might make him a good bet to begin the season with Indianapolis.

The Pirates also face questions at third base, where incumbent Kang has been the subject of a long series of ugly news stories going back to last summer. First, he was accused of sexual assault in Chicago in June. (He has not been charged in the alleged incident.) Then, in December, he was arrested in Korea and charged with leaving the scene of a DUI crash. It later emerged that the DUI arrest was his third in Korea since 2009. His trial for the December incident was set to begin a few days after Spring Training opened, and his arrival in camp was delayed. There is, of course, the immediate problem of when Kang will join the Pirates ready to play, and then the longer-term problem of what to do with a talented third baseman who repeatedly runs afoul of the law.

Deal Of Note

Nova’s three-year deal was one of the offseason’s strangest free agent contracts. Heading into the 2016 trade deadline, Nova was a forgettable righty starter whose mediocre strikeout numbers and home-run issues overwhelmed his good ground-ball rates. Like so many Pirates reclamation projects in recent years, though, he arrived in Pittsburgh and immediately looked like a different pitcher, walking just three batters in 64 2/3 innings and looking like he couldn’t have cared less about the home-run problems he’d had as a Yankee. Even better for him, there was already precedent for pitchers turning a handful of good starts in Pittsburgh into real money — J.A. Happ got three years and $36MM from the Blue Jays after a terrific stretch run with the Bucs in 2015. And, unlike Happ, Nova entered a free agent market very thin on starting-pitching talent. As of November, Nova had reportedly received offers similar to Happ’s deal.

In spite of all that, Nova ended up with a mere $26MM, half of what we predicted when the offseason began. It still isn’t clear why he got so little, although he made clear after signing that he enjoyed pitching in Pittsburgh and was happy with his choice. In any case, he’ll provide the Pirates with a capable rotation arm to join Cole and Taillon.

Overview

The 2016 season was a bad one for the Pirates and their fans, and perennial questions remain about ownership’s commitment to winning (or to its ability to spend in the first place). And on paper, adding only Nova and Hudson to a 78-win team looks underwhelming, particularly given the number of wins it will likely take to win the NL Central.

In general, however, the health of the franchise remains strong. At least Bell and Glasnow appear likely to contribute in 2017, with Meadows perhaps arriving as well. Kevin Newman and 2016 breakout pitcher Mitch Keller give the Bucs another pair of strong prospects. That quintet could eventually join a good young big-league core that includes Marte, Polanco, Cole and Taillon.

Alternately, some combination of them could head elsewhere in a trade package for a star player like Quintana, to whom the Pirates have continued to be connected. The reasons for their interest are obvious — he’s a star with a reasonable contract that includes four more years of control, meaning he could help the Pirates contend not only in the short term but in the medium term as well.

The Bucs still appear likely to trade McCutchen at some point prior to the end of the 2018 season, and there’s no contradiction between the rumors of the Bucs trading for one star veteran and looking to deal another. Unlike Quintana, McCutchen is more of a short-term asset, and due to his declining defense and Meadows’ emergence, he’s no longer as perfect a fit for the team’s roster as Quintana would be. Given that the Pirates didn’t get want they wanted for McCutchen this winter, though, it now makes sense to see how 2017 unfolds before revisiting that topic. A rejuvenated McCutchen would provide a significant boost to the Bucs’ hopes of contending, and even if they don’t, he could net the Pirates more in a trade than they might have gotten after their talks with the Nationals fell apart a few months ago.

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