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2022-23 Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Mark Polishuk | March 21, 2023 at 7:33pm CDT

While other NL powers loaded up during the offseason, the Dodgers had a comparatively quiet winter that focused more on shorter-term contracts.

Major League Signings

  • Clayton Kershaw, SP: One year, $20MM
  • Noah Syndergaard, SP: One year, $13MM
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: One year, $10MM
  • David Peralta, OF: One year, $6.5MM
  • Shelby Miller, RP: One year, $1.5MM
  • Jimmy Nelson, RP: One year, $1.2MM
  • Alex Reyes, RP: One year, $1.1MM (Dodgers hold $3MM club option for 2024, $100K buyout)

2023 spending: $53.3MM
Total spending: $53.3MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $16MM club option on IF Justin Turner ($2MM buyout)
  • Declined $7MM club option on SP Danny Duffy
  • Declined $2MM club option on IF Hanser Alberto ($250K buyout)
  • (Declined $1.1MM club option on Jimmy Nelson, but then re-signed Nelson to a new MLB deal.)

Trades & Claims

  • Acquired SS Miguel Rojas from Marlins for SS Jacob Amaya
  • Acquired RP J.P. Feyereisen from Rays for minor league RP Jeff Belge
  • Acquired IF Yonny Hernandez from Athletics for cash considerations
  • Claimed RP Jake Reed off waivers from Red Sox

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Jason Heyward, Robbie Erlin, Luke Williams, Steven Duggar, Adam Kolarek, Bradley Zimmer, Matt Andriese, Patrick Mazeika, David Freitas, Wander Suero, Tyler Cyr, Tayler Scott, James Jones, Dylan Covey, Yusniel Diaz, Rubby De La Rosa

Extensions

  • Tony Gonsolin, SP: Two years, $6.65MM
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: One year, $6MM in new money (Dodgers hold $5MM club option for 2025, $1MM buyout)

Notable Losses

  • Trea Turner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, Craig Kimbrel, Chris Martin, Andrew Heaney, Joey Gallo, Edwin Rios, Tommy Kahnle, Kevin Pillar, Trevor Bauer, Duffy, Alberto, David Price (won’t pitch in 2023)

The Dodgers have already been dealt a pair of significant injury blows in Spring Training, between Tony Gonsolin’s ankle sprain and the much larger-scale problem of Gavin Lux’s season-ending ACL tear.  These injuries only added to a general sense of unease within the L.A. fanbase, considering that in the aftermath of another playoff disappointment, the Dodgers took a pretty conservative approach to reloading for the 2023 season.

To this end, Dodgers fans might take solace in the fact that there might still be a gap between their team and the rest of the National League, considering that Los Angeles won 111 games last season.  The team’s apparent (and now abandoned) plan to get under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold and reset its penalty status isn’t exactly a new strategy for the Dodgers, considering they didn’t pay any luxury tax in any of the 2018-20 seasons.  Plus, the standard winter plan for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has been to take things relatively slow in the offseason apart from perhaps one major addition, i.e. signing Freddie Freeman in 2021-22, signing Trevor Bauer in 2020-21, or trading for Mookie Betts in 2019-20.

This offseason simply lacked that one headline-grabbing move, though it isn’t as if Los Angeles didn’t make some explorations.  The club reportedly had some level of interest in such marquee free agents as Justin Verlander, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodon, and even Aaron Judge, as well as other notable free agent and trade targets like Andrew McCutchen, Seth Lugo, the Brewers’ Willy Adames, and Kolten Wong (who ended up dealt from the Brewers to the Mariners).

Of course, the Dodgers’ financial strength and farm system depth can allow them to at least consider pretty much any player in baseball, and it could be that some of those pursuits were simple due diligence.  The end result of the Dodgers’ winter machinations was a series of short-term signings, as L.A. didn’t give any free agent beyond one guaranteed year.  Shortstop Miguel Rojas was signed to a contract extension soon after being acquired from the Marlins, but even that deal is only guaranteed through the 2024 season.

Rojas joins Betts, Freeman, Gonsolin, Austin Barnes, and Chris Taylor as the only Dodgers officially under contract for the 2024 season, and Betts, Freeman and Taylor are the only players on the books for 2025 and beyond.  As such, Los Angeles could possibly look to reset its luxury tax status next winter, though it’ll be a bit trickier for Friedman since he’ll have to navigate a plethora of club option decisions, as well as deciding whether or not to try and re-sign any of this year’s free agent additions, plus Julio Urias’ impending entry into free agency.

Bauer’s situation was undoubtedly a major factor in the Dodgers’ approach to the 2022-23 offseason.  The league issued Bauer a 324-game suspension last April under the MLB/MLBPA joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, and after Bauer appealed the decision, an neutral arbitrator reduced the suspension to 194 games.  This covered the time Bauer had already missed, and thus he was reinstated from suspension and his remaining $22.5MM in salary was returned to the Dodgers’ payroll.  (The Dodgers released Bauer within a few weeks of the arbitrator’s ruling, but naturally the team is still obligated to pay the money owed.)  Since the club’s estimated luxury tax number is roughly $245.1MM, Los Angeles would have been under the $233MM tax threshold with room to spare without Bauer’s salary on the books.

With this financial outlook in mind, Kershaw and Jimmy Nelson were the only members of the Dodgers’ lengthy free agent list to return to Chavez Ravine, as the team saw Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Chris Martin, and Tommy Kahnle all head elsewhere on multi-year contracts.  The Dodgers also added to their list of free agents with some notable non-tenders and declined club options, most notably Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner.

Los Angeles’ focus on filling those roster holes was split into two fronts.  Firstly, the Dodgers are eager to see what they have in a wide array of big league-ready young talent.  Miguel Vargas is slated to be the club’s regular second baseman, as the former top prospect has nothing left to prove at the Triple-A level.  James Outman figures to be part of the outfield picture at some point this season, if perhaps not on the Opening Day roster.  Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove are competing to see who earns a rotation spot in Gonsolin’s absence, and pitching prospects Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone are also on the verge of debuting in the majors.  Other top-100 prospects like Michael Busch and Andy Pages could also be in the big leagues before 2023 is over, and the Dodgers also picked up an interesting young player from outside the organization in utilityman Yonny Hernandez.

Many teams would be excited to have just one or two of those prospects ready to step up, so the Dodgers’ deep minor league pipeline is something of an embarrassment of riches for a big-market club that is also willing to spend.  Rather than put too much pressure on the youngsters, Los Angeles augmented the roster with some veteran names that might prove a more immediate benefit in 2023.

The Dodgers seemingly kept up hope that they could re-sign Justin Turner for much of the winter, but ultimately pivoted to another experienced former All-Star in J.D. Martinez.  As pretty much a DH-only player at this point in his career, Martinez’s lack of versatility is a bit of a departure from the Dodgers’ usual model of player acquisition, yet the team is hopeful that Martinez can get fully on track after his power numbers dipped with the Red Sox last season.  Even with a lack of slugging, Martinez still provided Boston with above-average (119 wRC+) production while hitting .274/.341/.448 over 596 plate appearances.

While Bellinger’s precipitous dropoff at the plate had already turned the former NL MVP into more of a platoon player, Los Angeles still needed to replace Bellinger’s strong defense and bolster the outfield depth on the whole.  In signing Peralta and Heyward, the Dodgers added a pair of left-handed hitters to balance out the lineup, with Peralta probably more of an offense-focused signing while Heyward brings the glovework.  Peralta projects as the regular left fielder against right-handed pitching, whereas Heyward’s playing time figures to hinge on how much the Dodgers are willing to play him in center field when Trayce Thompson is out of the lineup, or how much time Heyward might get in his customary right field spot if Betts is being used at second base.  The versatile Taylor will also get playing time in both the outfield and infield, at multiple positions.

Lux’s injury was a massive blow for many reasons, most obviously because an up-and-coming young player has had his career sidetracked for an entire year.  The Dodgers were confident enough in Lux’s ability to become the everyday shortstop that they didn’t make much of an effort to re-sign Trea Turner, nor did the team make too deep an incursion into the free agent shortstop market (apart from checking in on Bogaerts and Swanson).  With Rojas acquired from the Marlins to provide some more depth, Los Angeles was ready to give Lux a full opportunity to establish himself as an everyday big league shortstop.

With the worst-case scenario now visited upon Lux and the Dodgers, Rojas has been thrust into everyday duty.  It certainly isn’t an unfamiliar spot for Rojas given his years of experience in Miami, and if he continues to deliver his usual strong defense, the Dodgers might be okay with Rojas’ inconsistent bat considering the offense elsewhere in the regular lineup.  Taylor and Hernandez can also chip in at shortstop if needed, but this also stands out as a position where the Dodgers could add some outside help.  Spring Training is “not the most natural time to make a trade,” Friedman recently noted to media, but speculatively, L.A. might look to target shortstops at the trade deadline if Rojas and company can hold the fort until midseason.

On the pitching side, the rotation still looks strong even with Gonsolin is temporarily out of action.  Assuming Pepiot or Grove can capably fill in as the fifth starter, Los Angeles has Urias, Dustin May in his full-season return after Tommy John surgery, franchise icon Kershaw, and newcomer Noah Syndergaard in the top four.

Though it took close to a month for Kershaw to officially re-sign with the Dodgers after news broke of his agreement with the team, there wasn’t much mystery about his latest free agent venture, as Kershaw pretty quickly agreed to return for his 16th season in Los Angeles.  Because Kershaw is entering his age-35 season and has such a lengthy injury history, he can’t be considered an entirely sure thing, yet Kershaw has established a pretty clear “new normal” for himself at this stage in his career.  The southpaw has been limited to 22 starts in each of the last two seasons due to wear-and-tear types of injuries, yet when Kershaw has pitched, he has still looked like a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Anderson posted outstanding numbers in his one season in Los Angeles, but while Syndergaard isn’t being counted on to truly replace Anderson, Syndergaard would naturally love to follow that model of a career resurgence.  While the righty had a solid 3.94 ERA over 134 2/3 innings with the Angels and Phillies in 2022, Syndergaard is hoping for more now that he is more fully removed from the Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually all of the 2020-21 seasons.  It remains to be seen if Syndergaard can get back to his past All-Star level from his days with the Mets, but such a scenario can’t be ruled out given the Dodgers’ past success at getting veteran pitchers on track.

L.A. mostly stood pat with its relief corps, at least in the short term.  The acquisitions of Alex Reyes and J.P. Feyereisen are longer-term upside plays for later in the 2023 season, since both pitchers are recovering from shoulder surgeries.  Nelson also missed all of 2022 due to TJ surgery, but the Dodgers were confident enough in his ability to return that Nelson was re-signed to a new guaranteed big league deal.  Los Angeles also gave Shelby Miller a one-year MLB deal in the hopes that Miller can finally establish himself as a relief pitcher, despite Miller’s lack of results or even playing time at the Major League level in recent years.

While these signings may look uninspiring, an argument can be made that the Dodgers didn’t need to do much beyond tinker with a bullpen that was one of the league’s best in 2022.  Seeing who (if anyone) steps into a full-time closer role will be an interesting story to watch as the season progresses, and the Dodgers figure to be somewhat fluid with their bullpen mix depending on whether any of the rotation prospects end up debuting as relievers, or if trade possibilities emerge.

That kind of wait-and-see element might extend to the roster as a whole, as the front office has shown in the past that it will be aggressive in making in-season moves, whether it’s lower-level pickups or trade deadline blockbusters.  It could be that Friedman will save the “one headline-grabbing move” for the deadline, when the Dodgers have a better idea of their needs, how the younger players are fitting in, and what veterans have or haven’t contributed.  There is some risk in this strategy, but these are the risks an 111-win team can afford to make considering that it seems quite unlikely that the Dodgers will fall out of the playoff race.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals

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Offseason In Review Chat: San Diego Padres

By Darragh McDonald | March 21, 2023 at 9:57am CDT

MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Yesterday, we released the Padres’ entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of the Padres-centric chat.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Chats San Diego Padres

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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By Darragh McDonald | March 20, 2023 at 11:34am CDT

The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years, taking their payroll to levels it’s never reached before. It finally paid off in 2022, as the club made the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They doubled down on that aggression this winter, signing multiple free agents and locking up a couple of players with notable extensions.

Major League Signings

  • SS Xander Bogaerts: eleven years, $280MM
  • RHP Robert Suarez: five years, $46MM, Suarez can opt out after 2025
  • RHP Nick Martinez: three years, $26MM (Padres have two-year, $32MM option after season; if declined, Martinez has a two-year, $16MM player option)
  • RHP Michael Wacha: four years, $26MM (Padres have two-year, $32MM option after season; if declined, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and $6MM player options in 2025-26)
  • RHP Seth Lugo: two years, $15MM, Lugo can opt out after 2023
  • IF/OF Matt Carpenter: two years, $12MM, Carpenter can opt out after 2023
  • DH Nelson Cruz: one year, $1MM
  • OF Adam Engel: one year, $1MM
  • RHP Brent Honeywell Jr.: one year split deal, $725K in majors, $200K in minors

2022 spending: $68.7MM
Total spending: $407.2MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Robert Suarez opted out of one year and $5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout, later re-signed
  • OF Jurickson Profar opted out of one year and $7.5MM remaining on contract for $1MM buyout
  • Club declined $20MM option on OF Wil Myers in favor of $1MM buyout
  • RHP Nick Martinez opted out of three years and $18MM remaining on contract for $1.5MM buyout, later re-signed

Trades And Claims

  • Claimed RHP Sean Poppen from Diamondbacks, later outrighted off 40-man roster
  • Selected LHP Jose Lopez from Rays in Rule 5 draft

Extensions

  • 3B Manny Machado: five years, $170MM (on top of preexisting six years, $180MM)
  • RHP Yu Darvish: five years, $90MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • David Dahl, Preston Tucker, Drew Carlton, Aaron Brooks, Eric Hanhold, Anderson Espinoza, Pedro Severino, Tim Lopes, Max Schrock, Domingo Tapia, Wilmer Font, Craig Stammen, Alfonso Rivas, Ángel Sánchez, Julio Teheran, Rangel Ravelo, Cole Hamels, Rougned Odor

Notable Losses

  • Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, Pierce Johnson, Jurickson Profar (still a free agent), Wil Myers, Jorge Alfaro

Going into the 2018 season, the Padres decided it was time for change. It had been over a decade since their last trip to the postseason and they had never been huge players in free agency. They started to flip that narrative by signing first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM contract. That deal didn’t end up going well, but it nonetheless sent the message that the club meant business. That was followed up with the club signing Manny Machado and extending Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as trading for players like Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.

Despite all those bold moves, the club still found ways to struggle. Though they qualified for the postseason in the expanded field of the shortened 2020 campaign, they finished below .500 in each 162-game season from 2011 to 2021. Things finally clicked in 2022, with the Padres stealing all the headlines at the trade deadline by acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Brandon Drury. It resulted in the club finishing 89-73 and grabbing a Wild Card spot. They knocked off heavyweight teams like the Mets and the Dodgers before ultimately falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Though they finally broke through and had the success that long eluded them, the club quickly made it clear that they had little interest in taking their foot off the gas as they continue their pursuit of a World Series title. The first order of business was retaining a few in-house players. Robert Suarez and Nick Martinez each opted out of their respective contracts to become free agents. Within a few days, they were already back in the fold on eight-figure guarantees. Suarez was excellent in 2022, but it was his first in the majors at the age of 31 after many years in Japan. It was a somewhat similar situation for Martinez, who was also 31 and had been in Japan for three years following a rough MLB stint from 2014-17. The fact that the club made such large guarantees to relatively unproven pitchers signaled that they would have few financial obstacles in their path this winter.

From there, the Friars set their sights on a big splash. They reportedly offered both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge larger guarantees than they eventually accepted from the Phillies and Yankees, respectively. That’s not to say that either player turned up their nose at a chance of joining the Padres, as Turner seemingly preferred to be on the East Coast while Judge preferred to remain a Yankee for life.

After missing on two big swings, the club finally connected on the star signing they sought with Xander Bogaerts. The deal shattered most predictions, including ours. MLBTR pegged Bogaerts for a seven-year, $189MM deal, but he ended up soaring past that both in terms of the years and the guarantee. It was also surprising to see the Padres pursue a shortstop, as that didn’t seem to be their primary need. Ha-Seong Kim had a fine season replacing Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed all of 2022 due to injuries and an 80-game PED suspension. Tatis still has 20 games left on that but should be back in action early in 2023. The fact that the club initially set its sights on Judge perhaps indicates there was a chance Tatis could stick at short, but the acquisition of Bogaerts also showed they weren’t committed to letting him retake his spot there.

With Bogaerts now set to take over at the club’s everyday shortstop, Kim will get pushed over to second, nudging Jake Cronenworth to first. That will leave Tatis in the outfield, alongside Soto and Trent Grisham. That reduced the need for a big splash in the outfield, but the club did bolster their options on the grass by signing Matt Carpenter and Adam Engel. The latter is a glove-first option that was non-tendered by the White Sox and should make for a solid fourth outfielder. The former was awful from 2019 to 2021 but rebounded tremendously last year. He re-emerged with the Yankees and was one of the best hitters on the planet for a stretch before a foot fracture slowed him down. He finished the year with 15 home runs in just 47 games and a batting line of .305/.412/.727, wRC+ of 217. He played the four corner positions last year and could do so again, though the eventual return of Tatis should diminish the need for him to take any outfield reps.

All of this shuffling is necessary to get Bogaerts into the shortstop position and, more importantly, his bat into the lineup. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has hit 105 home runs and slashed .300/.373/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. That latter number places him in the top 20 among all qualified hitters in the league. He’s been remarkably consistent, keeping that figure between 129 and 141 in each of those five campaigns. His defense has been a little less consistent, but he did get positive grades from all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average last year. The Padres made a significant investment to get a deal done, but there’s every reason to expect they got a premier player for it.

With Bogaerts in hand, the next stage of the offseason continued to be busy, though at a lesser tier of free agency. Though they had retained Martinez, the rotation was still in need of bolstering with the departures of Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger. Offseason rumors suggested that clubs were interested in Seth Lugo as a starter, despite the fact that he’s been pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen for the past few years. The Padres decided to be the team to give Lugo that shot, signing him in mid-December. Lugo has been a fine reliever but is generally pretty unproven in the rotation. The last time he made more than seven starts in a season was back in 2017.

After that Lugo deal, the Padres had a front-loaded rotation. It was headlined by three great hurlers in Musgrove, Darvish and Snell, but they were followed by two unestablished starters in Lugo and Martinez. They decided to add some security as the offseason went along, eventually adding Michael Wacha, who posted a solid 3.32 ERA last year. He’s no sure thing either, as recurring shoulder issues have prevented him from tossing 130 innings in a season since 2017. But the Friars also added a few strands to the safety net by bringing in Brent Honeywell Jr., Wilmer Font, Cole Hamels and Julio Teheran. Those extra options will likely be important all season long, even in the beginning, as Musgrove recently fractured a toe and seems likely to miss a couple of starts.

The lineup was also in a good place, with Bogaerts joining Soto and Machado as the key threats. The Padres would go on to add some complementary pieces in Carpenter, Engel and then Nelson Cruz. It’s been a rough stretch for Cruz lately, as he struggled with the Rays at the end of 2021 and then hit just .234/.313/.337 for the Nats last year. Given that he’s now 42 years old, it would be fair to wonder if his age was finally catching up with him. However, Cruz underwent eye surgery in the offseason, telling reporters that some inflammation has been blocking his vision over the past year and a half. Perhaps he can bounce back, perhaps not, but the Padres only put down $1MM to find out. If the gamble pays off, it will add yet another potent bat into the mix.

With the calendar showing February and the roster looking fairly set, the focus shifted to long-term concerns. The rotation had some uncertainty over the horizon, as both Darvish and Snell were slated for free agency after 2023. Lugo, Wacha and Martinez also aren’t guaranteed to be back next season, as all three of them either have options or opt-outs that could potentially result in them returning to free agency. That left Musgrove as the only starter locked in for 2024, so the Padres decided to get a bit more clarity by extending Darvish. The deal was surprising in that it came out of nowhere, but also in its length. Darvish is already 36 and his new deal will run past his 42nd birthday. It seems likely that this is a tactic to reduce the club’s competitive balance tax calculation.

We’ll circle back to that CBT conversation in a moment, but the Padres weren’t done with the extensions just yet. Manny Machado still had six years remaining on his ten-year deal, but he had an opt-out opportunity coming up at the end of 2023. Given that he had an MVP-caliber season last year and the new Collective Bargaining Agreement had seemingly improved the free agent market for players, Machado would have been justified in heading back to the open market. He was quite open about his intent to do, but the Padres decided they didn’t want to see that happen and locked him in with a new 11-year, $350MM deal. Since Machado already had six years and $180MM in hand, this tacked on five years and $170MM to prevent him from departing.

This new era of aggressive spending for the Padres has resulted in the club paying the luxury tax in each of the past two years. Their continued spending this year will result in them paying for a third straight season and that will come with elevated tax rates. A third-time payor faces a 50% tax for any spending over the lowest threshold, which is $233MM this year. That jumps to 62% over the $253MM tier and 95% over the $273MM tier. It was reported about a month ago that the Padres were narrowly below that third tier, but that was before the Machado extension came down. His new deal bumped his AAV from $30MM to $31.81MM, perhaps nudging them over that line. If they can manage to get back under the $273MM figure, they’ll avoid the unwelcome penalty of having their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back 10 spots.

Regardless of which side of that threshold the Padres ultimately fall, it seems the lengthy deals are an attempt to at least moderately mitigate their CBT hits, for this year and the future. As mentioned, the Darvish extension will run past his 42nd birthday, while Bogaerts and Machado will each turn 41 in the final seasons of their respective deals. The annual values on the Bogaerts and Darvish deals, in particular, are lower than the per-year market rate for players of this caliber. Time will tell whether subsequent extensions might follow; the team is reportedly interested in extending both Soto and Hader.

Ultimately, these are all footnotes to the larger story of owner Peter Seidler deciding that he didn’t want the Padres to be a small-market team anymore. The Friars are currently third in the league in terms of both pure payroll and CBT, with only the two New York clubs ahead of them. It’s already resulted in one trip to the NLCS, and the hope is for even more to come. When asked if his spending was sustainable, Seidler told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he preferred a different question. “Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on boat?”

How would you grade the Padres’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Padres’ offseason review, we hosted a Padres-focused chat on March 21. You can click here to read the transcript.

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Offseason Review Chat Transcript: Philadelphia Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | March 17, 2023 at 2:06pm CDT

In conjunction with the Phillies edition of MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series, we held a Philly-centric live chat for more discussion of the team’s winter moves.  Click here to read the transcript.

 

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Chats Philadelphia Phillies

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Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Mark Polishuk | March 16, 2023 at 9:23pm CDT

The National League champions reloaded for another run at the World Series, including a $300MM splurge on Trea Turner.

Major League Signings

  • Trea Turner, SS: Eleven years, $300MM
  • Taijuan Walker, SP: Four years, $72MM
  • Matt Strahm, RP: Two years, $15MM
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: One year, $10MM
  • Josh Harrison, IF/OF: One year, $2MM

2023 spending: $64.77M
Total spending: $399MM

Option Decisions

  • Aaron Nola, SP: Phillies exercised $16MM club option for 2023 season
  • Jean Segura, 2B: Phillies declined $17MM club option for 2023 season ($1MM buyout)
  • Zach Eflin, SP: Declined his end of a $15MM mutual option for 2023 season ($150K buyout)

Trades & Claims

  • Acquired RP Gregory Soto and UTIL Kody Clemens from the Tigers for OF Matt Vierling, IF/OF Nick Maton, and C Donny Sands
  • Acquired RP Yunior Marte from Giants for RP prospect Erik Miller
  • Acquired RP Erich Uelmen from Cubs for cash considerations
  • Claimed OF Jake Cave off waivers from Orioles
  • Claimed RP Luis Ortiz off waivers from Giants
  • Claimed RP Andrew Vasquez off waivers from Giants
  • Selected SP Noah Song from Red Sox in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Aramis Garcia, Vimael Machin, Louis Head, John Hicks, Jon Duplantier, Jesus Cruz, Jake Jewell, Mark Appel, Jeremy Walker, Kyle Hart, Ben Bowden, Dustin Peterson

Extensions

  • Jose Alvarado, RP: Two years, $18.5MM (includes $500K buyout of $9MM club option for 2026; Alvarado had previously agreed to a $3.45MM salary for the 2023 season)
  • Seranthony Dominguez, RP: Two years, $7.25MM (includes $500K buyout of $8MM club option for 2025)

Notable Losses

  • Segura, Eflin, Vierling, Maton, Sands, Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson, Kyle Gibson, Brad Hand, Sam Coonrod, Johan Camargo, Chris Devenski, Vinny Nittoli

Months before the end of the regular season and before the Phillies made their Cinderella run through the playoffs, there was already speculation that the club would be targeting a major upgrade at shortstop.  Philadelphia at least checked in each of the “big four” free agent shortstops (Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson), and there was at least some early indication that Xander Bogaerts might be atop the team’s list due to his past Red Sox history with Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

As The Athletic’s Matt Gelb outlined in a piece in early December, Turner quickly emerged as the Phillies’ top priority, and the feeling seemed mutual on shortstop’s end.  Turner was already friendly with Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long from their days together with the Nationals, and Philadelphia was an ideal geographical choice since the Turner family was reportedly prioritizing a move to the East Coast.  Turner liked the fit enough that he reportedly turned down a $342MM offer from the Padres to join the Phillies.

Of course, it’s not like Turner exactly took a bargain rate.  He became one of just six players to hit the $300MM threshold on a free-agent deal, and the Phillies’ second such signing (after Harper) within the last four years.  There are plenty of similarities between the Harper and Turner contracts, including the fact that the Phillies spread out their money over the 13-year and 11-year spans of the respective deals in order to minimize the luxury tax hit as best as possible.

The Phillies had never exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax prior to the 2022 season, yet managing partner John Middleton has never been shy about spending during his seven-plus years in control of the franchise.  That willingness to spend has now manifested into a deeper plunge into tax territory, as the Phillies’ current tax bill is projected at roughly $259.8MM — well over the second CBT penalty tier of $253MM.  This means that the Phillies will pay a heavier tax rate both for this higher payroll, as for exceeding the CBT for two consecutive seasons.  Exceeding the CBT line in 2022 also put extra consequences on the Turner signing, as because Turner rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, the Phillies had to give up $1MM in international bonus money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft.

That said, it’s a price ownership seem happy to pay now that the Phillies are finally back in contention.  2022 marked the Phils’ first postseason appearance since the 2011 season, and with an NL pennant now flying, the organization is eager to take the next step and lock down a World Series.  Dombrowski’s front office will get plenty of opportunity to achieve this goal, as ownership extended Dombrowski through the 2027 season, and GM Sam Fuld and assistants GMs Jorge Velandia and Ned Rice all received extensions running through the 2025 season.

It will still be some time before we see the ideal version of this Phillies team, since Harper will be out until roughly the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  Even then, the Phils plan to utilize Harper only as a DH during the initial days or weeks of his return, with an eye towards possibly getting him back to his regular right-field duty by later in the season.  While it’s an open question as to how any player will bounce back after a Tommy John procedure, it’s probably a good sign that Harper still posted superstar numbers in 2022 despite playing through a torn UCL for most of the season.  Even a B or B+ version of Harper is still a boost to any lineup, so the Phillies will be eager to have him back as soon as possible.

Turner broadly fills the superstar gap in Harper’s absence, and he’ll add even more speed to an aggressive Philadelphia squad that finished fifth in MLB in stolen bases last year.  The metrics have always been a little split on Turner from a defensive perspective, but between both his bat and his glove, there is no doubt he is a gigantic upgrade for the Phils at the shortstop position.  Neither Didi Gregorius or Bryson Stott contributed much at shortstop over the course of the regular season, though Stott seemed to adjust later in his rookie season and at least managed to hold the fort as the regular starter throughout the playoffs.

Philadelphia saw enough in Stott that the former first-rounder is now being tasked with regular second base work, as the Phils let Jean Segura go to free agency (and a deal with the Marlins) after his $17MM club option was declined.  While the Phillies would love to see Stott establish himself as a Major League regular, a win-now team can’t afford to give too much rope to a young player, which is why veteran Josh Harrison was signed to a one-year contract.  Harrison and in-house utilityman Edmundo Sosa will provide depth at multiple positions, yet second base might be their first stop on the diamond if Stott requires a platoon partner or a timeshare.

Sticking with the Phillies’ bench situation, catchers Aramis Garcia and John Hicks were signed to minor league deals to add some more options behind the plate.  These signings might prove valuable considering that Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan are dealing with injury problems, leaving Philadelphia perhaps looking for a new secondary backstop to support All-Star J.T. Realmuto.

Donny Sands was formerly part of this catching mix, but Sands was dealt along with Matt Vierling and Nick Maton in a trade that shook up the Philadelphia bench.  The Phils sent the trio to Detroit in exchange for reliever Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens, and while the versatile Clemens will help fill the void left by Vierling and Maton, Soto was the prize of the trade.

Soto is a two-time All-Star who is controlled through the 2025 season.  There is plenty of volatility in Soto’s game, as he has an ungainly 13.1% walk rate over his career, and his hard-contact and strikeout numbers also dipped considerably from 2021 to 2022.  However, while the Tigers utilized Soto as their closer, the Phillies might use Soto only as one high-leverage option among many.  For now, manager Rob Thomson said his team will take a committee approach to the ninth inning, with newcomers Soto, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Strahm vying for save chances alongside incumbents Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado.

Though the relief corps stayed steady for much of the postseason run, Philadelphia’s bullpen has long been a source of inconsistency, and more reinforcement was needed this winter since David Robertson, Brad Hand, and the injured Corey Knebel were all headed into free agency.  (Sam Coonrod was also designated for assignment and then claimed off waivers by the Mets.)  Dombrowski’s response was to make a plethora of lower-level waiver claims and minor league signings of relief options, and that depth was augmented by the higher-profile additions of Soto, Kimbrel, and Strahm.

Investing $25MM of free agent dollars into Kimbrel and Strahm won’t break the bank for a free-spending team like Philadelphia.  However, both pitchers carry their share of question marks, since Kimbrel lost the closer’s job in Los Angeles last season and the Dodgers didn’t even include the veteran righty on their roster for the NLDS.  Strahm has been solid enough throughout his seven MLB seasons that the Phillies were comfortable in betting on his ceiling, yet there was some sense that the Phils overpaid for his services.  (As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Strahm contract ended up creating a bit of a stalemate amongst other free agent southpaw relievers, who felt they should be matching or exceeding Strahm in total salary or average annual value.)

Some free-agent vacancies also needed to be filled in the rotation, as Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Noah Syndergaard all hit the open market and signed with other clubs.  Prior to the Turner signing, there was some speculation that Philadelphia might target an available starter like Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon as a big free-agent splash, though the team ended up aiming to a slightly lower tier by showing interest in Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker.  With both pitchers reportedly receiving similar offers from the Phils, Walker took the deal, giving Philadelphia a solid No. 3 starter behind aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

Walker bounced back from several injury-plagued seasons to become a valuable member of the Mets’ rotation, posting a 3.98 ERA over 316 1/3 innings with New York in 2021-22.  The $72MM contract exceeded projections of what Walker might land on the open market, yet that price reflected the elevated cost of pitching this winter, and again underlined how the Phillies are willing to pay top dollar if they like a player.  Since the Phils didn’t want to sign another player who rejected a qualifying offer, the fact that Walker and Taillon didn’t have QOs attached to their services also likely helped their markets.

Walker’s deal has already grown in importance given that the Phillies have run into some injury concerns in Spring Training.  Ranger Suarez is dealing with some forearm tightness that isn’t thought to be too serious, but creates fresh doubt over Suarez’s readiness for the Opening Day roster.  Depth starters Cristopher Sanchez and Nick Nelson have also been shut down with injuries, and in perhaps the most concerning development, star prospect Andrew Painter has been sidelined with a right UCL sprain.  It will be close to four weeks before the highly-touted young righty will start lightly throwing, so between that timeline and Painter’s lack of Triple-A experience, his anticipated MLB debut might now be held off until closer to midseason at best.

Having Nola, Wheeler, and Walker atop a rotation is a pretty nice stopgap against depth questions, and the Phillies have another interesting young arm in Bailey Falter now set for at least a fifth starter role.  Michael Plassmeyer probably leads the pack of potential starting candidates if the Phillies do need a replacement for Suarez, as it seems unlikely that the Phils would make a bold promotion of Mick Abel by jumping the top prospect from Double-A to the big leagues.

In bigger-picture rotation news, it seems possible that Nola and the Phillies might yet agree to a contract extension, as the two sides were exchanging figures last month.  Nola is scheduled for free agency after the 2023 season, so locking up the righty early would establish Nola, Walker, Suarez, and the younger Falter/Painter/Abel trio as the future of the Phiadelphia pitching staff (and give the team some leverage in deciding what to do when Wheeler’s contract is up after the 2024 campaign).  The Phillies have already been busy on the extension front in committing to Dominguez and Alvarado on multi-year deals, though naturally a Nola contract will be significantly more expensive.

For all of Philadelphia’s roster moves this offseason, an argument can be made that the club spent quite a bit just to fill holes and maintain their level of productivity from 2022.  As noted, this new version of the Phillies won’t be entirely complete until Harper is healthy and joining his old friend Turner in the lineup, so treading water in the competitive NL East is a justifiable strategy until the Phillies have a better sense of what they’ll be getting from Harper.  Plus, while no trade deadline acquisition would be as beneficial as a healthy Bryce Harper, it is safe to assume that Dombrowski is prepared to be again be aggressive at the deadline.

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Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

By Anthony Franco | March 15, 2023 at 6:40pm CDT

The Reds had another slow offseason, their second straight winter defined mostly by inactivity. It’s a rebuild in Cincinnati, with the upcoming season again more about evaluating the future than winning in the short term.

Major League Signings

  • RF Wil Myers: One year, $7.5MM (including buyout of 2024 mutual option)
  • C Curt Casali: One year, $3.25MM (including buyout of 2024 mutual option)
  • RHP Luke Weaver: One year, $2MM
  • C Luke Maile: One year, $1.175MM

2023 spending: $11.675MM
Total spending: $13.925MM

Option Decisions

  • Team declined $13MM option on LHP Mike Minor in favor of $1MM buyout

Trades and Claims

  • Acquired LF Nick Solak from Rangers for cash
  • Traded SS Kyle Farmer to Twins for minor league RHP Casey Legumina
  • Acquired SS Kevin Newman from Pirates for RHP Dauri Moreta
  • Acquired minor league RHP Jake Wong from Giants for Rule 5 draftee C Blake Sabol
  • Acquired CF Will Benson from Guardians for minor league OF Justin Boyd
  • Claimed LHP Bennett Sousa off waivers from White Sox

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Chase Anderson, Silvino Bracho, Alan Busenitz, Allan Cerda, Daniel Duarte, Tayron Guerrero, Kevin Herget, Derek Law, Ben Lively, Richie Martin, Nick Martini, Daniel Norris, Chad Pinder, Nick Plummer, Henry Ramos, Chuckie Robinson, Austin Romine, Jared Solomon, Hunter Strickland, Jason Vosler, Alex Young

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Farmer, Minor, Donovan Solano, Mike Moustakas (released), Aristides Aquino (non-tendered), Jeff Hoffman (non-tendered), Art Warren (non-tendered), Moreta, Kyle Dowdy (non-tendered), Justin Wilson

The Reds stripped things down over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling a team that had finished a few games off a Wild Card appearance. Payroll constraints led to a reboot of the roster, with a number of veterans shipped out for young talent either last winter or at the summer deadline. That teardown paired with brutal injury luck resulted in the second 100-loss season in franchise history.

It’s an organization now clearly amidst a rebuild. There was never much expectation for the Reds to do a whole lot this offseason, and general manager Nick Krall essentially confirmed as much before the winter got underway.

Unlike last winter, when the likes of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray were on the roster, Cincinnati didn’t go into this offseason with many obvious trade chips. The most apparent candidate was shortstop Kyle Farmer, who was headed into his second-to-last season of arbitration control. Farmer is a low-end regular at shortstop or high-quality utility piece who’d have modest appeal to a contender. Cincinnati indeed cashed him in for young talent.

It was a one-for-one swap with the Twins that brought back Double-A swingman Casey Legumina. The Gonzaga product had just been added to the Minnesota 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’ll start the season in the upper minors but could factor into the MLB mix later in the year.

Hours after trading away Farmer, Cincinnati backfilled at shortstop with another stopgap veteran. The Reds and division-rival Pirates aligned on a deal that brought in Kevin Newman for middle reliever Dauri Moreta. Newman is also in his penultimate arbitration season and broadly brings a similar profile to the departed Farmer: a contact-oriented offensive approach at the bottom of a lineup and solid glovework. Newman is a little more affordable and could be a midseason trade chip.

He steps into an infield that has a handful of players vying for reps. It’s unknown if Joey Votto will be ready for Opening Day after last summer’s rotator cuff surgery; once healthy, the former MVP will be back at first base. Jonathan India is looking for a bounceback year at second base.

Newman is the presumptive starting shortstop. Jose Barrero could also get one more look to see if he can piece things together offensively. Barrero was a fairly recent top prospect based on his power and defense. He’s coming off an atrocious season in both Triple-A and the big leagues, though, and the clock could be ticking for him to carve out a role. Elly De La Cruz has now firmly emerged as the likely shortstop of the future; he’ll start the year in the upper minors but could make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Third base also features a few talented but unproven players trying to cement themselves. Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins in last summer’s Mahle trade, made his debut last September. He struggled in his first 28 outings but had an excellent age-24 season in Triple-A. He’ll get the first crack at the hot corner, though there was plenty of buzz in Cincinnati camp regarding corner infield prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Also part of the Mahle trade package, Encarnacion-Strand mashed between High-A and Double-A last season. The Oklahoma State product tore the cover off the ball in Spring Training. Cincinnati reassigned him to minor league camp yesterday, taking him out of the running for an Opening Day roster spot, but he could push Steer for reps before long. That’s also true of Noelvi Marte, a power-hitting infield prospect brought back from the Mariners in the Castillo deal.

The Reds made a firm commitment to the infield youth movement when they released Mike Moustakas in early January. The three-time All-Star was headed into the final season of an ill-advised four-year, $64MM free agent deal. Moustakas had hit only .216/.300/.383 in just 654 plate appearances as a Red. His 2022 campaign was diminished by both underperformance and foot injuries. With little hope of another team taking any notable portion of the $22MM he was due this season, the Reds acknowledged the sunk cost and opened a clearer path to reps for younger players like Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.

Cincinnati should also have room on the bench for a non-roster Spring Training invitee or two. The Reds had arguably the best minor league signing of last winter with Brandon Drury, and they again leveraged their lack of certainty on the roster to bring in a swath of veterans on non-roster pacts. Chad Pinder, Henry Ramos and Jason Vosler are among the position players in camp, while Cincinnati brought in over 10 relievers with some level of MLB experience on minor league deals.

As with the left side of the infield, the outfield is up in the air for players to seize a job. Jake Fraley probably has the leg up on a corner spot after a solid second half. The Reds have maintained they’re going to give former top prospect Nick Senzel another crack in center field. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, so the likes of TJ Friedl and Stuart Fairchild could get on the roster.

The Reds rolled the dice on a pair of former top prospects to add to that mix. Their first move of the offseason was to bring in Nick Solak from the Rangers for cash. It was a no-risk flier on a player who has hit well in the upper minors but struggled to carry that over against MLB pitching. Solak doesn’t have a great positional fit — he struggled mightily at second base and is a fringy corner outfielder as well — but he’s a former second-round draftee who has a .293/.370/.510 line in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

While the Reds didn’t give up anything for Solak, they parted with last year’s second-rounder Justin Boyd to take a shot on 24-year-old Will Benson from the Guardians. A first-round pick in 2016, the 6’5″ Benson has moved extremely slowly up the minor league ranks thanks to huge strikeout totals. He’s shown as patient an approach as anyone in affiliated ball, however, and he clearly has raw power potential. While he’s taken some time to climb the ladder, he’s consistently fared better in his second crack at a level than during his first. That was particularly true last season in Triple-A, when Benson sliced his strikeout rate to a personal-best 22.7% en route to a .278/.426/.522 line.

In addition to those fliers on upside plays, the Reds added to the corner outfield in their biggest free agent move of the winter. Cincinnati guaranteed $7.5MM to Wil Myers on a one-year deal, giving him a chance to rebuild his stock in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. Myers had an up-and-down tenure in San Diego, hitting for power but struggling to make enough contact to be a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter. At age 32, he’s not a long-term core piece for Cincinnati. He’s a perfectly reasonable veteran addition to a young team, one who’d surely be in trade conversations this summer if he’s performing.

Myers is likely to see the bulk of his playing time in right field. That’s in large part because the club is planning to give young catcher Tyler Stephenson more time at designated hitter. The 26-year-old went on the injured list three times last season, all of which were related to incidents behind the plate. He was concussed in a collision with Luke Voit and both fractured his thumb and clavicle on foul tips. Those injuries were all fluky in nature, although there’s little doubt Stephenson will have a better chance of sticking in the lineup if he’s not donning the tools of ignorance as often.

Skipper David Bell told reporters at the start of Spring Training the Reds were aiming for Stephenson to play around 65 games at catcher and 80+ contests at first base/DH (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). With that in mind, Cincinnati added a pair of veteran backstops to take some of the workload. Northern Kentucky native Luke Maile signed a one-year, $1.175MM pact in November. He was joined by power-hitting veteran Curt Casali, who received $3.25MM in January to return to the Reds for a second stint.

The Reds didn’t do as much to augment the pitching staff, even on lower-cost pickups of the Maile/Casali ilk. The only such addition was right-hander Luke Weaver, who signed for $2MM after being non-tendered by the Mariners. Weaver is another former top prospect who showed some early-career success but has fallen on hard times of late. Great American Ball Park isn’t an ideal venue for a pitcher to try to rebuild value. That said, the Reds are likely to afford the 29-year-old another shot to get the ball every fifth day and take a crack at developing a breaking pitch he feels comfortable using regularly.

Weaver will step into the fourth spot in the season-opening rotation. The top three will go to second-year hurlers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. All three have a chance to be core pieces of the next competitive Cincinnati team, with Greene and Lodolo former top ten picks and consensus top prospects. The final rotation spot is up for grabs this spring. Justin Dunn is out of the immediate mix thanks to shoulder issues. The likes of Connor Overton, Luis Cessa and minor league signee Chase Anderson are battling for the job. Prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could join the group over the summer.

Open competition is also the story of the bullpen. Cincinnati didn’t add any MLB veterans to a relief corps that was among the league’s worst. The only acquisitions were Legumina and waiver claim Bennett Sousa, both of whom could start the year in the minors. Cincinnati should welcome back Lucas Sims from an injury-plagued season. They’d hoped for the same with Tejay Antone but he suffered a forearm strain while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will start the year on the injured list.

Cincinnati has breakout reliever Alexis Díaz ticketed for ninth-inning work. One of the few bright spots of the 2022 campaign, the hard-throwing righty reportedly drew some trade interest over the winter which Cincinnati rebuffed. Sims and Buck Farmer should have high-leverage work and could be trade candidates this summer. The middle relief corps is wide open, with the likes of Silvino Bracho, Daniel Norris, Derek Law, Alex Young and Hunter Strickland trying to earn jobs in Spring Training.

Broadly speaking, the 2023 campaign will be about evaluating players for the future and identifying what veterans could be shipped off in the coming months. It’s hard to envision this team finishing higher than fourth in the National League Central. The Reds are near the lowest period of the rebuild, with most of the veteran players shipped away. They’ll continue to incorporate young talent as they look ahead to next offseason, one which could see a relative spike in activity.

Cincinnati doesn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract for 2024, with option buyouts for Votto, Moustakas, Myers and Casali representing the only firm commitments. The slate is almost clean for the front office to chart a new path back to contention. In the interim, the fanbase is in for another losing season.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Reds on March 16. Click here to view the transcript.

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Offseason In Review Chat: New York Mets

By Darragh McDonald | March 15, 2023 at 10:04am CDT

MLBTR will be hosting team-specific chats in conjunction with each entry of our Offseason In Review series. Yesterday, we released the Mets entry in the series. Click here to read the transcript of the Mets-centric chat.

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Offseason In Review: New York Mets

By Darragh McDonald | March 14, 2023 at 4:54pm CDT

The Mets had a huge number of players departing via free agency, but owner Steve Cohen signed off on new heights of spending to replenish the roster. In some cases, familiar faces were brought back, but there are also some intriguing new additions. The payroll almost went even higher, as the Mets took center stage in the middle chapter of the Carlos Correa saga. Even though that mega deal ultimately fell through, the Mets still shot way past previous spending records and the highest luxury tax bracket in their aim of putting together another competitive team for 2023.

Major League Signings

  • OF Brandon Nimmo: eight years, $162MM
  • RHP Edwin Díaz: five years, $102MM, includes club option for 2028 and Díaz can opt out after 2025
  • RHP Justin Verlander: two years, $86.67MM, includes conditional player option for 2025
  • RHP Kodai Senga: five years, $75MM, Senga can opt out after 2025
  • LHP José Quintana: two years, $26MM
  • C Omar Narváez: two years, $15MM, Narváez can opt out after 2023
  • RHP Adam Ottavino: two years, $14.5MM, Ottavino can opt out after 2023
  • RHP David Robertson: one year, $10MM
  • OF Tommy Pham: one year, $6MM
  • IF Danny Mendick: one year, $1MM

2022 spending: $144.5MM
Total spending: $498.17MM

Option Decisions

  • RHP Jacob deGrom opted out of one-year, $30.5MM plus club option remaining on contract
  • RHP Taijuan Walker declined $7.5MM player option in favor of $3MM buyout
  • RHP Chris Bassitt declined $19MM mutual option in favor of $150K buyout
  • Club triggered $1.5MM club option on DH Daniel Vogelbach
  • Club declined mutual option on RHP Mychal Givens in favor of $1.25MM buyout
  • Club triggered $14MM option on RHP Carlos Carrasco
  • Club triggered $775K option on RHP John Curtiss

Trades And Claims

  • Claimed LHP Tayler Saucedo off waivers from Blue Jays, later lost off waivers to the Mariners
  • Claimed RHP Stephen Ridings off waivers from Yankees
  • Claimed RHP William Woods off waivers from Braves, later outrighted off 40-man roster
  • Acquired RHPs Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham from Marlins for RHP Franklin Sanchez and PTBNL, later named as OF Jake Mangum
  • Selected RHP Zach Greene from Yankees in Rule 5 draft, later returned to the Yankees
  • Acquired LHP Brooks Raley from Rays for LHP Keyshawn Askew
  • Traded C James McCann and cash considerations to the Orioles for a PTBNL, later named as Luis De La Cruz
  • Claimed RHP Sam Coonrod off waivers from Phillies

Extensions

  • IF Jeff McNeil: four years, $50MM plus club option for 2027
  • C Tomás Nido: two years, $3.7MM, covered his final two arb seasons and didn’t extend the club’s window of control

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Denyi Reyes, Jimmy Yacabonis, Tommy Hunter, Sean Reid-Foley, José Peraza, Abraham Almonte, T.J. McFarland, Tim Locastro, Michael Perez, DJ Stewart, Jaylin Davis

Notable Losses

  • Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Tyler Naquin, Joely Rodríguez, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Dominic Smith, Chasen Shreve, Yoan López

The Mets had a very strong season in 2022, winning 101 games, their second-highest tally in franchise history. However, it ended with a few sour notes. Though the Mets were leading the National League East for most of the year, a scorching-hot Atlanta club blasted past them in the final days of the season to capture the division title and secure a bye through the Wild Card round. That left the Mets to face off against the Padres in a three-game series that they eventually lost.

In the aftermath of that tough finish, the Mets were looking at a challenging offseason scenario, with a great number of impending departures. Brandon Nimmo was the most notable position player heading into free agency, but he was potentially going to be joined by a huge chunk of the pitching staff. Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract, while Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker each declined options. The club decided to trigger their option over Carlos Carrasco to prevent a fourth departure. In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Mychal Givens, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter were all headed out the door. That left general manager Billy Eppler a huge to-do list, but owner Steve Cohen greenlit unprecedented spending in order to get things back in order.

First up was Díaz, who was already one of the most-feared relievers in MLB before taking his game to new heights in 2022. He posted a 1.31 ERA over 61 appearances with a ridiculous 50.2% strikeout rate. Based on that monster campaign, the Mets wasted little time in bringing him back aboard. The day after the World Series ended, the Mets and Díaz were already in agreement on a five-year, $102MM deal, a record-setting guarantee for a relief pitcher in terms of both annual value and total guarantee.

There would still be more work to do in the bullpen, but the switched to the rotation following the Díaz deal. In a span of less than two weeks in early December, deGrom signed with the Rangers, Walker with the Phillies and Bassitt with the Blue Jays. The Mets effectively replaced them by signing free agents Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana.

The deGrom and Verlander moves amount to a swap of aces, though they come at different point in their careers. deGrom will turn 35 in June but has been limited by injuries over the past two years. Nonetheless, he secured a five-year deal from the Rangers. Verlander, on the other hand, is now 40. He essentially missed the entire 2020-2021 seasons, making just a single start in the former season before Tommy John put him on the shelf. Incredibly, he returned to the mound in 2022 and made 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, earning a Cy Young Award in the process. He tied Scherzer’s record-setting average annual value from the Mets, but on just a two-year guarantee.

Overall, this flutter of moves left the Mets with a strong on-paper rotation, but one with lots of risk. Senga has been an excellent starter in Japan, with a career ERA of 2.42 in NPB and a 1.94 figure last year. However, the move over the Pacific doesn’t always go according to plan, making Senga less than a sure thing. Quintana is coming off a great 2022 campaign but had a real rough showing in the two prior seasons.

There’s also the general looming risk of pitcher injuries to consider, which is present for every team but will be particularly notable with this group. Of the projected starting five, Senga is the only one who’s under 34 years old. Though Senga is just 30, he will be making the transition from Japan where pitchers usually take the ball once a week, to the five-day rotation preferred in North America. It’s virtually impossible for any five-man rotation to stay 100% healthy for an entire season, and this club’s relatively older group might need some extra focus on this department.

It looks like they might have to lean on their depth right out of the gate, as Quintana is set to undergo bone graft surgery to address a benign lesion on his rib and will be out until at least July. Fortunately, the Mets have a solid group of depth starters like David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi. They also acquired Elieser Hernández from the Marlins this winter, giving them another option.

In the midst of all that rotation shuffle, the club also took the Díaz approach to Brandon Nimmo, outbidding the field to keep him in the fold. There’s certainly risk in giving an eight-year deal to a player who has long had the injury-prone label, but he’s avoided lengthy absences in the past few years and he was easily the best center fielder available. High-risk options like Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier were the primary free-agent alternatives, and the trade market lacked options. The Mets clearly preferred to just stick with Nimmo and put down $162MM to prevent him from getting away.

There was one other outfield addition to come later, with Tommy Pham being brought in. He’s long been a strong option against left-handed pitchers and could perhaps take over that specialist role that Darin Ruf was supposed to fill last year. With left-handed hitting Daniel Vogelbach seemingly lined up to be the primary designated hitter, Pham could take the small half of a platoon there, while also occasionally giving the regular outfielders time off on occasion.

The club also decided it was time to move on from the James McCann experiment. He parlayed two good years with the White Sox, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, into a four-year deal with the Mets. But the first two years in Queens were quite dismal and it was decided to make a switch. The Mets signed Omar Narváez and traded McCann to the Orioles, eating most of his contract in the process. That’s a defensible move from a pure baseball perspective, but it’s an expensive one. The Mets will essentially have both catchers on the books and will be paying significant taxes on each, given where their payroll eventually ended up.

Circling back to the bullpen, bringing Díaz back was an impactful move, but there was still much more to do. The club would eventually re-sign Ottavino, in addition to adding David Robertson via free agency. Trades also brought aboard Brooks Raley and Jeff Brigham, while Sam Coonrod and Stephen Ridings were claimed off waivers and Zach Greene was selected in the Rule 5 (though he’s since been returned to the Yankees). There will also be a pseudo new addition in John Curtiss, who was signed a year ago but missed all of 2022 recovery from Tommy John surgery.

As mentioned, all of these moves shot the payroll up to incredible new heights, but it almost went even higher due to the unprecedented Carlos Correa free agency. Correa seemed destined to be a Giant for a time, as he and the club agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal in December. However, the club raised concerns about something in his physical, later revealed to be his right ankle. The Mets swooped in and agreed to bring Correa aboard for $315MM over 12 years, slightly less than his first agreement. The club already had a shortstop in Francisco Lindor but was planning to install Correa at third, displacing Eduardo Escobar. Correa’s agent Scott Boras reportedly contacted Cohen directly as the latter was vacationing in Hawaii, with Cohen both greenlighting the agreement and discussing it publicly with the media. “I felt like our pitching was in good shape,” Cohen said at the time. “We needed one more hitter. This puts us over the top.”

The holiday slow-down period arrived without the deal becoming official and reports started to emerge that the Mets had similar concerns to the Giants. In a stunning twist, the Mets and Correa’s camp couldn’t get the deal over the finish line and he eventually signed with the Twins on a much smaller $200MM guarantee. The six-year deal with Minnesota is just half the length of his agreement with the Mets, though there are four vesting options that could potentially take the contract to the ten-year mark.

With that deal falling through, the Mets will go into 2023 with a position player mix that’s fairly similar to last year’s club. Pham is a new addition but Dominic Smith is out after being non-tendered. Narváez will swap in for McCann behind the plate and Danny Mendick will be in the mix for a reserve infield role.

The pitching staff has seen much more turnover, but the outlook doesn’t appear to be drastically different. With Max Scherzer still around, the club can still deploy a strong one-two punch at the top of the rotation, with Verlander slotting into deGrom’s place. Carrasco is back and hanging onto a spot, and Senga will replace one of Bassitt or Walker. A healthy Quintana could eventually offset the loss of the other, but the Mets will test their depth early in the season. Peterson and Megill are both solid options who’d likely have rotation jobs elsewhere, and either could capably hold down a spot while Quintana mends. The bullpen ended up retaining Díaz and Ottavino, while players like Robertson and Raley will try to make up for the departures of Lugo, May, Rodriguez and others.

It can be debated about whether the 2023 roster is stronger or weaker than the 2022 version, but it seems to be in roughly the same area. The Mets are still good and should be in competition with Atlanta and Philly for the division yet again — but keeping pace with those clubs wasn’t cheap. Even without Correa on the books, Roster Resource pegs the Mets for a pure payroll of $355MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $374MM. Both of those numbers are well beyond anything in baseball history.

Since the Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, they will be a second-time payor in 2023. The new collective bargaining agreement significantly pushed the tax thresholds but also added a fourth tier, colloquially dubbed the “Steve Cohen tax,” as it has been seen by many as an attempt to rein in baseball’s richest owner. However, it doesn’t seem to have been terribly effective, given that the Mets have blown past that $293MM tier. As a second time payor, the Mets’ taxation tiers at the four different thresholds are 30%, 42%, 75% and 90%. The CBT isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so midseason moves will change the calculus, but the club is currently facing a tax bill of about $102MM on top of that $355MM payroll. They will also certainly have their top 2024 draft pick pushed back ten slots, as is the case for any clubs going over the third CBT tier.

This staggering commitment to winning is surely welcomed by segments of the fanbase, especially those who were so critical of the Wilpon family for not acting like a big market club during their tenure as owners prior to selling to Cohen. But not everyone around the majors is as enthused, with some of the league’s less-spendthrift owners recently forming an economic reform committee. The goal of this huddle seems to be some early game-planning for the next CBA, with some desiring a hard salary cap that would more adequately handcuff Cohen. That might be difficult to achieve with the MLBPA understandably having no real desire to allow such a cap to come into being, but it’s clear that Cohen’s imprint on the game is going to have reverberations. The current CBA lasts through the 2026 season, so it’s not a short-term concern, but it seems this offseason from the Mets has contributed to a future collision course.

How would you grade the Mets’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Mets’ offseason review, we hosted a Mets-focused chat on March 15. You can click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals New York Mets

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Offseason Review Chat Transcript: Kansas City Royals

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2023 at 5:02pm CDT

MLBTR’s offseason in review post about the Royals is now online, and the associated Royals-centric live chat with fans took place today.  Click here to read the transcript.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Kansas City Royals MLBTR Chats

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Cleveland Guardians

By Mark Polishuk | March 11, 2023 at 7:50pm CDT

The Guardians edition of MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series has been posted, and with it came the accompanying Guards-centric chat with readers.  Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s chat.

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2022-23 Offseason In Review Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Chats

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