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Twins Notes: First Base, Kirilloff, Henriquez, Rotation

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The Twins don’t plan on using a dedicated first baseman in 2023, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters this week (link via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). Minnesota will utilize a rotation of players through the position, giving looks to Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda, utilityman Nick Gordon and offseason signees Joey Gallo and Donovan Solano at the position. The Twins cycled through various DH options last season after three years with Nelson Cruz as the mainstay in that spot of the lineup, and it seems as though they’ll now go with a that rotational approach at both DH and first base.

Kirilloff told Hayes that he’s feeling “optimistic” about his twice-surgically repaired wrist, which is improving by the week. A healthy Kirilloff would be the favorite for work at first base. The former No. 15 overall draft pick climbed as high as the ninth-ranked prospect in all of baseball on MLB.com’s top-100 list prior to the 2019 season (and No. 15 at Baseball America), and the Twins thought highly enough of him to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason.

Injuries have derailed both his 2021 and 2022 seasons, however, and after a hot start in 2021, his production began to slide. He currently has just a .251/.298/.398 batting line in 387 Major League plate appearances, but Kirilloff is also a .323/.378/.518 hitter in the minor leagues and comes with substantial upside at the plate. He could be an option in the outfield as well — he’s played all three spots in his career — but the Twins are deep in the outfield and clearly have more playing time for him at first base.

Of the options to split time at first base, the newly signed Solano could be a frequent one. Twins president of baseball ops Derek Falvey told reporters this week Solano will get a “good amount” of time at the position (link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Helfand writes that the Twins first reached out to Solano back in early January, though a deal obviously took quite a bit longer to formally come together. Solano adds that other clubs made him offers, but it seems some might’ve come from rebuilding teams, as he cited the Twins’ desire to compete in 2023 as a reason for signing in Minnesota.

Elsewhere in camp, pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez, who recently underwent an MRI after experiencing posterior elbow soreness, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter link). The right-hander received an injection and will be reevaluated in a week’s time.

The 22-year-old Henriquez, acquired alongside Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the trade that sent catcher Mitch Garver to the Rangers, made his big league debut in 2022 and tossed 11 2/3 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. He struggled to a 5.66 ERA in 95 1/3 Triple-A frames, thanks largely to an inflated 1.79 HR/9 mark, but his 25.7% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate were more encouraging. He currently ranks 23rd among Twins farmhands at Baseball America. A strong performance in camp and/or in Triple-A to begin the season could put him in the mix for a bullpen spot during the upcoming campaign.

Henriquez has been primarily a starter in the minors, but with a rotation consisting of Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda — plus Bailey Ober looming as a solid sixth option — it’d be an uphill battle to get into the starting mix. It’s a deep collection of starters for the Twins — one that Baldelli will likely treat differently than in 2022, when pitchers like Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy were deployed in short starts by design. Via Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Baldelli said this week that he expects Twins starters to work deep into games this year.

“I expect more out of our starters this year,” Baldelli said. “…We have several guys that, what they probably take most pride in, is giving you a good, deep effort into a ballgame. Guys that are not satisfied giving you five good innings. They want more than that out of themselves.”

The now-26-year-old Ryan led all Twins pitchers with just 147 innings pitched in 2022. Part of that was due to rampant injuries up and down the roster, but part of it was also an ostensibly conscious effort to shield starters from facing a lineup three times in an outing. Twins starting pitchers averaged just 4.83 innings per outing in 2022. The group ranked as a middle-of-the-pack unit in terms of results, landing 20th in MLB with a 4.11 ERA. Archer, in particular, averaged just 4.11 innings per start. Lopez, acquired from the Marlins last month, averaged 5.63 innings per start and pitched at least six frames in 16 of his 32 starts.

Twins Sign Donovan Solano

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12:16pm: The Twins formally announced the signing. Right-hander Chris Paddack, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery performed last May, was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Feb. 23, 8:40am: The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Solano’s deal guarantees him $2MM, with up to $250K in additional incentives available.

Feb. 21: The Twins are in agreement with infielder Donovan Solano on a one-year, major league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical and the financial terms are not yet publicly known.

Solano, 35, has had a unique journey in his baseball career. He played in the big leagues from 2012 to 2016 but didn’t impress much and wound up mired in the minors for two years after that. He was able to claw his way back to the show and has been a solid major league player over the past few years. With the Giants from 2019 to 2021, he hit .308/.354/.435, with his wRC+ of 113 indicating he was 13% better than the league average hitter in that time.

He signed with the Reds last year and took a bit of a step back at the plate, finishing the season with a .284/.339/.385 line and a 98 wRC+. Despite the slight drop, he was still a useful piece for the Reds, since he was able to spend significant time at the three non-shortstop infield positions and was generally considered around average at them, though his work at third was graded the weakest and his work at first the strongest.

Solano could be a good fit for a platoon role given his right-handed bat has fared well against left-handed pitchers, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently highlighted. Solano has hit .289/.342/.397 against righties over the past four seasons but has crushed lefties to a .321/.363/.461 line. That split largely continued last year, even though he was less productive overall. He hit .301/.348/.422 with the platoon advantage but .277/.335/.369 without it.

For the Twins, they’ve seen some notable changes to their infield mix this offseason, though Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco should still be in the middle. Gio Urshela was traded to the Angels, freeing up the hot corner for José Miranda after he saw significant time at first last year. Luis Arraez was traded to the Marlins while Miguel Sanó had his option declined. All of that has left left-hander Alex Kirilloff potentially the top option at first base. Since Solano fared well at first last year, he could perhaps platoon with Kirilloff some. In addition to the normal platoon strategy, it might make sense to monitor Kirilloff’s workload given his nagging wrist injuries over the past few years.

The club also has a number of left-handed hitters in its outfield mix. Right-hander Byron Buxton will be in center, but the options for the corners include lefties Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Kirilloff. The club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter and will likely be rotating those players through that slot, with Solano potentially spelling them against lefties from time to time as well. Solano’s ability to play second could also allow him to give Polanco the occasional day off, though the club also has Kyle Farmer and Gordon available for that duty as well.

It’s unknown what kind of salary Solano will earn, but it’s unlikely to be a huge investment for this move that will add some depth and versatility to the team. They have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move, though that will likely be moving one of Chris Paddack or Royce Lewis to the 60-day injured list, since both are expected to be out of action until at least midseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL Notes: Twins, LeMahieu, Means

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that right-handed prospect Jordan Balazovic will miss the start of Spring Training due to a broken jaw stemming from “an altercation away from the field.” A source with the team indicated to Hayes that Balazovic suffered the injury following a verbal altercation last Saturday, though Balazovic did not retaliate physically. Balazovic underwent surgery and is currently unavailable, though he could begin to play catch in seven to 10 days.

Balazovic came into the 2022 season viewed as a consensus top 100 prospect but struggled mightily with injuries and ineffectiveness last year. He was out until May 1 last year with a knee injury and then struggled to a 7.68 ERA in 72 2/3 minor league innings last year while pitching almost exclusively at the Triple-A level. Now it appears his 2023 is off to a rocky start of its own. Fortunately for Minnesota, the club has an impressive amount of starting pitching depth, with Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober all capable big league starters even with Chris Paddack set to spend most of the 2023 season on the injured list.

Elsewhere around the AL…

  • Sticking with the Twins, center fielder Byron Buxton and first baseman Alex Kirilloff are both in places the club is comfortable with health-wise at this point in the spring, according to Hayes. Buxton is fully recovered from last year’s knee surgery and is playing without limitations, while Kirilloff, Falvey notes, is behind most other hitters as the organization plans on taking things slowly with him following his second wrist surgery, which Hayes notes was particularly intensive. Both figure to be part of the Twins Opening Day lineup if healthy, though the Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor earlier this offseason in part as insurance in center if Buxton continues to struggle to stay healthy, while rumors of the clubs interest in a veteran, right-handed complement to Kirilloff at first base have percolated throughout the offseason.
  • Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu talked with reporters this morning, including Erik Boland of Newsday Sports and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. LeMahieu noted that he is at “100 percent” as he enters camp this spring, able to play with no limitations. In addition, LeMahieu says he’s excited to play in a utility role for the Yankees this season. With Anthony Rizzo at first base and Gleyber Torres at second, while Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all expected to mix and match at shortstop and with Josh Donaldson at third base, at least until top prospect Anthony Volpe is ready to contribute, LeMahieu figures to pick up playing time at each of first base, second base, and third base this season. LeMahieu played second base almost exclusively prior to signing with the Yankees ahead of the 2019 season, but since then has moved around the infield more often, racking up 872 innings of work at first base and 1,171 innings at third base in a Yankees uniform.
  • While Orioles left-hander John Means won’t factor into the Baltimore Opening Day rotation, he certainly seems to be on the right track to have an impact on the club at some point this season. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASN, that means will begin throwing off a half mound sometime in the coming week. Means has had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter since taking on a full-time role in 2019, pitching to a 3.72 ERA (124 ERA+) in 353 1/3 innings over that time while earning an All Star appearance and finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting for his 2019 season, where he posted a 3.60 ERA (131 ERA+) in 155 innings of work. Whenever Means is ready to return, he’ll be a welcome addition to a rotation that saw Kyle Gibson replace outgoing veteran righty Jordan Lyles and added lefty Cole Irvin in a trade with Oakland this offseason.

Twins Notes: Kirilloff, Winder, Sands, Payroll

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With Spring Training getting starting this week, that means updates are rolling in on various players and their health, or lack thereof, as well as details on teams and their plans for the season ahead. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey provided a couple of updates to reporters, including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter links).

“No setbacks, no concern,” Falvey said of first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff. “AK has been in a great spot. Our strength guys said [the wrist is] probably in as good of a spot as they’ve seen him coming into camp, where he’s at. The early returns on swinging are very positive.”

The health of Kirilloff’s right wrist has been an ongoing concern for the past couple of years, seemingly preventing him from reaching his potential. Ranked as one of the top prospects in the game as he was coming up through the minors, he has thus far hit .251/.295/.398 for a wRC+ of 91 in the majors. That’s come in 387 plate appearances over the past two seasons, each of which ended in wrist surgery for Kirilloff.

The club has plenty of outfielders but it seems Kirilloff has a path to regular playing time at first base. The Twins declined an option on Miguel Sanó and traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins, in addition to trading Gio Urshela to the Angels in order to have José Miranda take over at third base. Those moves have left Kirilloff atop the depth chart at the cold corner and the club will be hoping that better health can help him produce at a level more like his minor league work. Since reaching Double-A in 2019, he’s hit .305/.378/.484 at the top two levels of the minor leagues for a wRC+ of 143.

Turning to the pitching staff, the club had some success turning a starter into a reliever last year with Griffin Jax. He had mostly started coming into last year but worked exclusively in relief in 2022. He ended up posting a 3.36 ERA over 65 appearances with a 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate. However, no such plans are currently in place for other members of the staff right now, with Falvey stating that pitchers like Josh Winder and Cole Sands will be built up as starters this spring.

The Twins seem to have a strong rotation on paper, with Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle likely taking the top five spots, with Chris Paddack potentially returning from Tommy John surgery and joining them at some point as well. That will leave pitchers like Sands, Winder, Bailey Ober and others likely squeezed down to Triple-A. Though that’s plenty of arms in theory, most of them have injury concerns. Maeda missed all of 2022 while recovery from an internal brace procedure and each of Gray, Ryan and Mahle dealt with various injuries that kept them below 150 innings on the year. López got to 180 frames last year but he’s been hampered by his health in the past, never previously reaching 115 innings in a major league season.

With all of those question marks, it makes sense that the club would want to maintain some starting depth as they plan out the season ahead, especially after those injuries seemed to play a role in the club fading in the second half last year. Winder posted a 4.70 ERA in his first 67 MLB innings last year but with a subpar 16.4% strikeout rate. Sands, meanwhile, had a 5.87 ERA in his debut last year but in a smaller sample of 30 2/3 innings. Since they both have options, they can head to Triple-A and wait for their next opportunity to arise.

Turning to the bigger picture, Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently spoke to Joe Pohlad, who is taking on a more meaningful role with the club these days. It was reported in November that club chairman Jim Pohlad would be ceding responsibilities to his nephew Joe going forward. Some have wondered if that switch would lead to changes in the ways the team is run, with the younger Pohlad perhaps giving a small bit of insight into that. “I think that there are a number of factors that you need to consider,” Pohlad said in response to a question about the club’s payroll getting into the $180-200MM range. “I don’t think something like that is ever out of the question. I really don’t.”

The Twins have yet to get near that level of spending, with their franchise high payroll being last year’s $134MM figure, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. It seems likely that they will set a new record this year, with Roster Resource currently pegging their spending at $154MM. That’s a nice jump but it would still require another one to get into that proposed range. Despite generally being in the middle of the pack in terms of spending, the club has made some surprising splashes of late, including giving a huge extension to Byron Buxton and twice being the surprising victors of the Carlos Correa free agent frenzy. Though it doesn’t seem like there are any imminent plans to hit the gas pedal and really ramp up spending, it appears that there’s at least some hope for more aggression going forward.

Twins Interested In Brad Hand

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The Twins have some interest in free agent reliever Brad Hand, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link). Minnesota is the first team firmly linked to the three-time All-Star, who’s one of a handful of left-handed relievers still on the open market.

Hand, a Twin Cities native, spent last season in Philadelphia after signing a $6MM deal with the Phillies. He appeared in 55 games, working to a 2.80 ERA across 45 innings. It was solid run prevention but came with his worst strikeout and walk numbers since his full-time bullpen transfer in 2016. Hand struck out a below-average 19.2% of opposing hitters on a very modest 7.3% swinging strike rate. He also walked batters at an elevated 11.6% clip, with that fringy strikeout and walk profile surely contributing to his lack of reported interest this offseason.

To his credit, the 6’3″ southpaw did an excellent job at staying off barrels last year. He limited opposing hitters to a woeful 26.9% hard contact rate, leading to another season in which he was excellent at keeping the ball in the yard despite lacking huge ground-ball totals. Hand has generally shown a knack for avoiding damaging contact, leaning heavily on a sweeping slider to keep hitters off balance.

33 next month, Hand isn’t as dominant now as he was during his 2016-20 peak, a five-year run in which he was amongst the sport’s most effective late-game weapons. Over that stretch, he worked to a sterling 2.70 ERA while striking out a third of opponents against an average 8.1% walk rate. Hand’s swing-and-miss stuff has fallen off the last two seasons but he’s nevertheless posted generally decent results.

The 12-year MLB veteran posted neutral platoon numbers last season but has predictably been quite a bit better against same-handed batters over the course of his career. Going back to 2016, he’s stifled left-handers to a .169/.261/.287 line while righties have put up a .228/.308/.370 mark. The Twins don’t strictly need left-handed help with Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran both assured of bullpen spots, but they haven’t done much to address their relief corps in any capacity this winter.

Matt Moore and Will Smith are probably the top lefty relievers still available on the open market. They’re followed by Hand, Zack Britton and Daniel Norris. The righty market is down to bounceback candidates like Corey Knebel, Jeff Hoffman and Hansel Robles.

Twins Sign Three Pitchers To Minor League Contracts

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The Twins have inked right-hander Connor Sadzeck and left-handers Tyler Webb and Sean Nolin to minor league deals, as per the team’s MLB.com transactions page.  It wasn’t specified if any of the deals contained invitations to Minnesota’s big league Spring Training camp.

Sadzeck is the only member of the trio who pitched in the majors in 2022, albeit in cup-of-coffee fashion — Sadzeck tossed three innings over two games with the Brewers last season.  The righty spent much of the season at the Triple-A level, with an impressive 2.20 ERA and 27.86% strikeout rate over 49 combined innings with the Brewers’ and Nationals’ top affiliates.  Perhaps most importantly, Sadzeck’s walk rate was a palatable 9.95%, which represents an improvement over the control problems that plagued him in his last few seasons in the majors and minors.

Prior to 2022, Sadzeck’s MLB experience consisted of 9 1/3 innings with the Rangers in 2018 and 23 2/3 innings with the Mariners in 2019, with the latter season cut short by elbow problems.  His 2.18 ERA over those 33 frames was perhaps a little lucky considering his elevated walk rate, though Sadzeck’s high velocity and ability to miss bats was enough to catch the eye of the White Sox, Brewers, and Nationals over the last two seasons.

Webb returns to affiliated baseball after posting a 2.93 ERA, 28.81% strikeout rate, and 5.5% walk rate over 55 1/3 innings with the independent Long Island Ducks in 2022.  It was a nice rebound for the southpaw after a very rough 2021, as Webb had more walks (19) than strikeouts (14) while posting a garish 13.22 ERA over 16 1/3 innings with the Cardinals.  More control problems followed Webb to Triple-A (a 14.33% walk rate and a 5.82 ERA over 21 2/3 innings with Louisville) after St. Louis outrighted him off its 40-man roster, and Webb chose to become a free agent after the season.

It wasn’t long ago that Webb seemed to be establishing himself as a fixture in the St. Louis bullpen, as he posted strong numbers after being claimed off waivers from the Padres in June 2018.  Over his first 92 innings with the Cardinals from 2018-20, Webb had a 3.03 ERA, though his secondary metrics were much less flattering.  Never much of a strikeout pitcher at the MLB level, Webb had limited the damage with strong hard-hit ball rates, but his big spike in walks (and a .362 BABIP) contributed to his brutal 2021 numbers.

Nolin had a 4.39 ERA over 26 2/3 innings with the Nationals in 2021, which represents his only MLB action since the 2015 season.  Injuries sidelined him entirely for the 2016-17 seasons, and Nolin has since bounced around the minors, indy leagues (Nolin also pitched for the Long Island Ducks in 2019), and international leagues.  The left-hander spent the 2020 season in Nippon Professional Baseball, and after returning to North America to pitch in the Nationals organization, Nolin headed back overseas for a one-year stint with the KBO League’s Kia Tigers.  Nolin had a strong 2.47 ERA in 124 frames with the South Korean club, but the Tigers moved on from pursuing another contract with Nolin for 2023.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By MLB Outfielder Brent Rooker

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After being drafted by the Twins in the 38th round out of Mississippi State, Brent Rooker went back to college for another year.  That move paid off, as the Twins took him again in the first round in 2017.  At the time, Baseball America ranked the outfielder/first baseman as a top 100 prospect in the game, writing, “He projects as a middle-of-the-order weapon with power as a strong carrying tool.”

Rooker reached Triple-A in 2019.  The minor league season was cancelled in 2020, but Rooker was able to make his MLB debut in September of that year.  In his sixth game in the Majors, he went deep off the Cardinals’ Daniel Ponce de Leon.  Unfortunately, Rooker’s forearm was fractured on a hit-by-pitch not long after that.

The surgery for that injury went well, and Rooker was back in the bigs in April of ’21.  The left fielder showed promise that year, popping nine home runs in 213 plate appearances for the Twins.  One highlight: a four-hit effort against the Rays, including a home run off Evan Phillips.

The Padres were drawn to Rooker, as they acquired him along with Taylor Rogers in the April 2022 trade that sent Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan to Minnesota.  After a few brief big league looks for San Diego, the Padres traded Rooker to the Royals in August of ’22 for Cam Gallagher.  Finally, in November of last year, the A’s claimed Rooker off waivers from the Royals.

A whirlwind 2022 season saw Rooker as a member of four different organizations.  He still managed to hit 28 home runs in 365 plate appearances at Triple-A.  Rooker joins an A’s team that currently projects to have Ramon Laureano and Seth Brown at the outfield corners and Aledmys Diaz at DH.  The 28-year-old Rooker appears to have little left to prove at Triple-A and is in a good place to compete for playing time as a right-handed power bat.

As Brent notes, he’s at least above replacement level at Twitter, and you should follow him @Brent_Rooker12.  Brent volunteered to chat with MLBTR readers today, and we’re happy to have him!  Click here to read the transcript of the chat, where Brent talks about everything from the mental weight of a serious injury, the biggest gaps between Triple-A and the Majors, his favorite teammates/toughest opponents, clubhouse food spreads and more!

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Twins, Parker Bugg Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Twins have signed reliever Parker Bugg to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. He’d reached minor league free agency at the end of last season following seven years in the Marlins’ system.

Bugg, an LSU product, entered the professional ranks as a 27th-round draftee in 2016. Despite that modest draft profile, he worked his way up to Triple-A by the 2019 campaign. Bugg spent a few seasons at the top minor league levels and earned his first big league call from Miami last August. He had split the season between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville, working to a 2.39 ERA across 37 2/3 combined innings at the time of his promotion. Bugg stayed on the active roster for a couple days but didn’t make it into a game before being designated for assignment and outrighted off the roster.

Upon clearing waivers, he finished the season with the Jumbo Shrimp. Bugg wrapped up his year with a solid 3.18 ERA through 39 2/3 frames of relief in Triple-A. He struck out a solid 25.9% of batters faced but walked hitters at an elevated 12% clip. All told, he owns a 4.18 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage and 10.3% walk rate through 306 professional innings.

Bugg figures to open the 2023 campaign with Triple-A St. Paul. He’ll be on hand as a depth option for a Minnesota bullpen that was in the league’s middle third in both ERA and strikeout rate last season. Danny Coulombe, Oliver Ortega, Patrick Murphy and Locke St. John are among the other non-roster bullpen options who’ll be at the upper levels of the minors for the Twins’ front office.

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