NL West Notes: Christenson, Giants, Padres, Chapman, Soto, Kershaw
Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco. Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants. Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.
It isn’t known what coaching roles Christenson and Williams might take with the Giants, though most of the (very large) staff was expected to stay in place. Bench coach Kai Correa is under contract for next season, though Baggarly writes that the Giants are likely to give him permission to interview with other teams, so this could provide an opening for Christenson to just assume the bench coach job. Mark Hallberg is the third base coach, and since the team thought highly enough of Hallberg to interview him for the manager’s job, the Giants could probably try to find space for both Hallberg and Williams on the staff.
More from around the NL West…
- Also from Baggarly’s piece, he suggests that Matt Chapman could be a good fit as a free agent target for the Giants this winter. Of course, Chapman played under Melvin for years with the A’s, and beyond that recruiting link, adding Chapman would solidify a proper everyday player within a San Francisco lineup that has perhaps suffered for having too many platoon players and moving parts in recent years. Chapman’s stellar glove would instantly upgrade the Giants’ struggling defense, and put less fielding pressure on Marco Luciano (possibly the next regular shortstop in the Bay). J.D. Davis and possibly Casey Schmitt would then become trade chips for San Francisco if Chapman was installed at the hot corner.
- With the Cubs and Yankees both already rumored to be eyeing Juan Soto this offseason, the trade speculation about the Padres star isn’t likely to end until he is either extended by San Diego, or until a trade actually happens. Of course, it isn’t yet clear if the Padres are willing to move Soto at all this winter, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner hears from a league source that if Soto is dealt, it might not happen until closer to the trade deadline. Dealing Soto that late would naturally reduce the trade package San Diego would receive in return, yet for a Padres team desperate to contend in 2024, they might first want to see if they can get on track with Soto in the lineup before considering a deal.
- Clayton Kershaw has one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers in each of the last two offseasons, and it has been widely known that Kershaw was choosing between only retirement, returning to Los Angeles, or possibly signing with his hometown Rangers. While Kershaw opted to keep playing in L.A. on both occasions, Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Texas’ breakout success now makes it a tougher decision for Kershaw, as the Rangers have now shown that their willingness to spend can translate to championship contention.
Cubs Reportedly Interested In Juan Soto
The Cubs are reportedly among the teams that have interest in dealing for Padres superstar Juan Soto this offseason, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, who reports that Chicago will be “involved” in Soto’s market. It’s the second report this week to suggest a potential trade partner for the Padres in a Soto deal, as earlier reporting indicated that the Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding Soto’s availability.
Reports have indicated that the Padres will look to cut payroll this offseason by as much as $50MM. With key pieces of the club’s pitching staff like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo likely ticketed for free agency this winter, that leaves the club minimal room to either re-sign or replace those arms as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2023 campaign that saw them miss the postseason with an 82-80 record. A trade of Soto, who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to receive $33MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, would free up plenty of budget space for the Padres this offseason while also providing an influx of young talent that could impact the club in 2024 and beyond.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a relatively surprising season that saw them exceed expectations. Rather than the expected sell-off that would have seen them deal Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, the Cubs picked up third baseman Jeimer Candelario and reliever Jose Cuas at the trade deadline and entered September in good shape to return to the postseason in a full campaign for the first time since 2018. Unfortunately, the club collapsed down the stretch with a 7-15 record over their final 22 games. Ultimately, the club finished with an 83-79 record, just one game back of the Diamondbacks and Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.
With Bellinger set to hit free agency this offseason, replacing the outfielders 134 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR figures to be a key focus of the offseason in Chicago. Soto, who slashed .275/.410/.519 with a 155 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in characteristically excellent 2023 campaign, would certainly fill the gap in the club’s offense left by Bellinger’s impending departure. That being said, Soto’s fit in Chicago is imperfect. Most notably, the club has both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked up to patrol the outfield corners through the 2026 campaign, complicating Soto’s positional fit on the team. While Happ has plenty of experience in center field, he made no appearances at the position in 2023 and played just 12 innings there in 2022; his last season as the club’s regular center fielder was in 2020, his age-25 campaign.
Of course, that’s to say nothing of Chicago’s outfield-heavy crop of prospect talent residing in the upper minors, headlined by top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his elite center field defense. Both Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario made their big league debuts this September, while Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Brennen Davis are also limited to the outfield. Of course, that logjam could be cleared by including one or more of the aforementioned prospects in the return package for Soto, though even in that case the Cubs would likely be forced to play Soto or Happ primarily at DH in 2023 upon the arrival of Crow-Armstrong.
Another potentially complicating factor for the Cubs is Soto’s pending free agency. With Soto set to hit the open market following the 2024 season and the Cubs still building up toward contention, it’s fair to wonder if a club better situated for a World Series run in 2024 would be more aggressive in looking to acquire Soto than the Cubs. Although an acquiring club could certainly look to extend Soto to a long-term deal after dealing for him, agent Scott Boras is known for encouraging his clients to establish their value on the open market and Soto previously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals earlier in his career.
The Cubs have rarely shown an appetite for megadeals at that level, as evidenced by last offseason’s signing of Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM deal in lieu of a pursuit of another top shortstop like Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, both of whom signed commitments spanning a decade or longer. That said, it’s worth noting that Soto is far younger than the typical free agent. Swanson’s current deal in Chicago runs through his age-35 season; Soto could sign a 10-year deal next offseason and celebrate his 36th birthday during October of the final year of that contract.
Levine goes on to discuss a potential return package for Soto if the Padres and Cubs were to agree on a trade. He notes that utility player Christopher Morel has garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, and that sources indicated the Padres are particularly high on him. Morel hit well during his sophomore campaign in 2023, slashing .247/.313/.508 with 26 home runs. Morel primarily served as Chicago’s DH this season, though he logged time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop throughout the season. While Morel has proven playable all around the diamond, he’s appeared to be a below-average fielder at most of those positions. His best defensive position appears to be second base, though in Chicago he’s blocked at the keystone by 2023 Gold Glove finalist Nico Hoerner, who’s under contract through 2026. Between Morel’s bat, versatility, and pre-arbitration status, he figures to be a sought-after piece in trade discussions with the Cubs this offseason even in spite of his defensive shortcomings.
Yankees, Padres Have Had Preliminary Discussions On Juan Soto
The Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding the trade candidacy of Juan Soto, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Those discussions, which Martino unsurprisingly categorizes as “preliminary,” should be one of many calls that San Diego receives on the superstar outfielder in the weeks and months to come.
Teams are still prohibited from making trades, although there was never any chance of the Padres making such a monumental move this early in the offseason anyhow. Clubs can identify and discuss early targets in preparation for the reopening of the trade window, which occurs the day after the end of the World Series.
Speculation about Soto’s availability has lingered back to before the trade deadline. The scuffling Padres elected to buy over the summer, hoping those additions would combine with improved play out of their existing roster to push them back into contention. San Diego didn’t start winning consistently until it was too late, never erasing the deficit and finishing two games behind the Diamondbacks.
The underwhelming place in the standings alone was always going to reignite chatter about Soto’s availability. Adding fuel to the fire were various late-season reports that the Friars hoped to cut back spending. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune pegged the target figure around $200MM, which would be nearly $50MM south of this past season’s level. Even if the Padres don’t slice payroll to that extent, it seems clear they will be more austere this winter than they have in the past couple offseasons.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Soto for a $33MM salary next year, his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’d easily top the $30MM record which Shohei Ohtani established last winter for an arb-eligible player, making Soto the highest-paid player on the San Diego roster. Yet even that lofty figure is well below the open market value for one prime-aged season of a player who is among the game’s five best hitters.
The three-time All-Star overcame a relatively slow start to turn in a characteristically excellent season. Soto hit .275/.410/.519, popping 35 home runs while leading baseball with 132 walks. Among batters with 500+ plate appearances, he ranked third in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging.
Soto would be a massive upgrade for any team in baseball. While that’ll make him a popular target, it would also make trading him a massive decision for the Padres. San Diego is going to make another push to compete in 2024. Removing Soto from the equation makes that quite a bit harder, even if they’re able to reallocate some of that payroll room into addressing a mediocre bottom of the lineup and/or filling a rotation that could lose each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to free agency.
Even if the Padres were fully determined to cut player spending to the $200MM range, they don’t have to trade Soto to make that happen. If Wacha, Lugo and Nick Martinez each hit free agency, the Friars would have around $127MM in salary commitments for next season. That doesn’t include Soto’s arbitration projection, which would push them near $160MM. Arbitration projections for Trent Grisham and Scott Barlow would nudge them past $170MM.
That may not leave a ton of space in the budget for free agent acquisitions — and they’ll certainly need to address the rotation in some form — but it doesn’t force their hand on a Soto trade specifically. Any of Grisham, Barlow or Ha-Seong Kim would have appeal if the Padres were to consider marketing them instead.
Martino suggests that Soto could be available if another team puts forth an appropriate offer, indicating the 25-year-old is not categorically untouchable. That aligns with comments from president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at the start of the offseason. At season’s end, Preller told reporters the organization would reengage Soto’s representation at the Boras Corporation about a potential extension (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Asked about the possibility of a trade if they can’t work out a long-term deal, San Diego’s baseball ops leader noted they’ve “never been a group that (rules out) anything” before reiterating that their “first path” would be a chat with Soto’s camp about a contract.
If the Padres get to a point this offseason in which they’re seriously entertaining a Soto blockbuster, the Yankees are one of a number of teams that could be involved. New York is as good a fit as any given their willingness to spend at the top of the league and a need to address left field. Every team with payroll room would have room on the roster for Soto, although only teams with a legitimate path to contention in 2024 are plausible suitors to top the trade market for a player one year from free agency. The Yankees are the first of many teams that are likely to be mentioned in Soto rumors during the offseason.
MLBTR Poll: San Diego’s Juan Soto Decision
Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.
Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.
The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.
After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.
The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.
It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.
All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.
Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.
What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
What Should The Padres Do With Juan Soto?
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Trade him this offseason. 58% (5,371)
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Extend him this offseason and cut payroll elsewhere. 24% (2,199)
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Reassess the situation over the summer. 18% (1,718)
Total votes: 9,288
A.J. Preller Discusses Bob Melvin, Juan Soto
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller addressed members of the media on Wednesday (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) to discuss his team’s disappointing performance in 2023 and what to expect from the offseason ahead. He confirmed that he will remain the club’s chief baseball executive going forward, and likewise, skipper Bob Melvin will remain at the helm in 2024. Preller also touched on the Padres’ farm system, a potential addition to the front office, and the possibility of an extension for superstar Juan Soto.
Considering that the Padres vastly underperformed this past season, it’s no surprise Preller and Melvin were on the hot seat. San Diego reached the NLCS in 2022, yet after a busy offseason in which the team spent over $400MM in free agency, they barely finished above .500 this year, falling two games shy of a postseason berth. The president of baseball ops didn’t deny how frustrating the 2023 season was, but he didn’t blame his manager for everything that went wrong. This comes two days after Padres chairman Peter Seidler expressed his complete support for the leaders running his team.
Said Preller, “Bob is our manager, and he’s going to be our manager going forward,” leaving no room for doubt that Melvin’s job is secure. However, the executive wouldn’t broach the subject of an extension – the manager is only under contract for one more year – instead emphasizing that both he and Melvin are focused on improving the current roster and getting the Padres back to the postseason in 2024. “Next year is going to be a different year,” he explained. “A different team, different players.”
While there won’t be a different manager or a different president of baseball operations, Preller said he has thought about possibly hiring a general manager. He has technically held both titles since he was promoted ahead of the 2021 season, but it has become quite common for teams to have a separate president of baseball ops and GM. Preller wouldn’t commit to making a hire, but he said he’d be open to adding a new executive “that brings different experiences” to the front office.
On the topic of reinforcements, Preller also addressed San Diego’s farm system, expressing confidence in the cohort of young players approaching the upper levels of the minors. He believes the team has several prospects who could make an impact sooner or later, especially as added depth. His remarks weren’t particularly revealing, but they were encouraging, given the sheer number of prospects the Padres have given up in recent trades, along with the draft picks they’ve lost by signing top free agents.
The executive wasn’t quite as confident about Juan Soto’s long-term future with the Padres. While he said his first move will be to discuss an extension with the three-time All-Star, he didn’t deny the possibility of trading the lefty slugger instead. “We’ve never been a group that says no to anything,” Preller explained. “I wouldn’t read into that. That’s just kind of the way we operate.” His comments suggest that no trade is imminent, but by not shutting down the question, he left the potentiality on the table.
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays’ Stadium Agreement
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- MLBTR continues Previewing The Free Agent Class (1:30)
- The Mets hire David Stearns and the Red Sox fire Chaim Bloom (5:35)
- The Rays announced a new stadium agreement, which could pave the way for league expansion (14:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- Why would the Nationals prevent Stephen Strasburg from retiring? (21:25)
- Will the prospect promotion incentives affect the trajectory of Jackson Holliday or Jackson Chourio? (25:40)
- Should the Padres trade Juan Soto or hold for one more year? (29:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation – listen here
- Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
- MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here
Padres Reportedly Willing To Listen To Offers On Juan Soto; Trade Seen As Unlikely
The Padres have signaled a willingness to hear trade offers on Juan Soto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman writes that San Diego is also open to overtures on Blake Snell and Josh Hader, though he reiterates the Friars’ preference would be to add to the roster before next Tuesday’s deadline.
For myriad reasons, it seems very unlikely the Padres would move Soto in the coming days. They’re only a year removed from acquiring him and Josh Bell in perhaps the biggest deadline blockbuster ever, sending CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and top prospects James Wood and Robert Hassell III as part of the package to Washington. Pivoting to deal him away within a year would represent a major change in direction for a franchise that has rapidly escalated payroll and seemed hellbent on collecting as many stars as possible.
San Diego chairman Peter Seidler went on record at the start of July to say the organization wasn’t “going to reverse course” from that aggressiveness. Obviously, the Friars haven’t pulled out of their middling performance in the few weeks since then, but a Soto trade would run directly contrary to that message.
Indeed, Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote just two days ago that the Padres had been rebuffing offers on Hader and Snell. Moving Soto — who is eligible for arbitration for a season beyond this one — would require a significant change of heart. There’s been a little more chatter of late about the possibility of Hader and Snell coming available (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also suggested as much this morning), but they’re more logical trade candidates than Soto since they’re both headed to free agency after this season.
San Diego, owner of a 49-54 record, faces a double-digit game deficit in the NL West. They’re 6.5 out of a Wild Card spot with four teams to surpass. Their place in the standings makes a run at the postseason this year unlikely, though certainly not impossible. It’s hard to envision this club kicking off any kind of longer-term retool and a Soto trade would obviously deal a huge hit to their 2024 lineup.
While Soto got off to a slow start to the season by his own huge standards, he’s looked like himself over the past few months. He owns a .286/.434/.548 line since the start of May and carries a .262/.417/.501 slash overall. There’d clearly be enormous interest if the Friars were to genuinely market the three-time All-Star. It seems they’re currently open to offers more so as a matter of due diligence than any kind of eagerness to deal him.
Whether to move the impending free agents or push in more chips in hopes of an excellent second half could be determined in large part by their next few games. The Padres have four more outings before the deadline: a three-game set at home against the division-leading Rangers, then the first contest of a series in Colorado.
MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters
The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams. Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.
This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate. Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.
Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season. The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen. This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.
National League
- Catcher: Sean Murphy, Braves
- First Base: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
- Second Base: Luis Arraez, Marlins
- Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
- Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves
- Outfield: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
- Outfield: Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
- Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
- Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Dodgers
- Pitchers: Alexis Diaz/Reds, Camilo Doval/Giants, Bryce Elder/Braves, Zac Gallen/Diamondbacks, Josiah Gray/Nationals, Josh Hader/Padres, Mitch Keller/Pirates, Clayton Kershaw/Dodgers, Justin Steele/Cubs, Spencer Strider/Braves, Marcus Stroman/Cubs, Devin Williams/Brewers
- Position Players: Ozzie Albies/Braves, Pete Alonso/Mets, Nick Castellanos/Phillies, Elias Diaz/Rockies, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Diamondbacks, Matt Olson/Braves, Austin Riley/Braves, Will Smith/Dodgers, Jorge Soler/Marlins, Juan Soto/Padres, Dansby Swanson/Cubs
American League
- Catcher: Jonah Heim, Rangers
- First Base: Yandy Díaz, Rays
- Second Base: Marcus Semien, Rangers
- Third Base: Josh Jung, Rangers
- Shortstop: Corey Seager, Rangers
- Outfield: Randy Arozarena, Rays
- Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels
- Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
- Pitchers: Felix Bautista/Orioles, Yennier Cano/Orioles, Emmanuel Clase/Guardians, Luis Castillo/Mariners, Gerrit Cole/Yankees, Nathan Eovaldi/Rangers, Kevin Gausman/Blue Jays, Sonny Gray/Twins, Kenley Jansen/Red Sox, Michael Lorenzen/Tigers, Shane McClanahan/Rays, Shohei Ohtani/Angels, Framber Valdez/Astros
- Position Players: Yordan Alvarez/Astros, Bo Bichette/Blue Jays, Adolis Garcia/Rangers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Blue Jays, Austin Hays/Orioles, Whit Merrifield/Blue Jays, Salvador Perez/Royals, Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Luis Robert Jr./White Sox, Brent Rooker/Athletics, Adley Rutschman/Orioles
Juan Soto Has Found His Stride After Slow Start
Early in the year, there was a decent amount of trepidation about Juan Soto. The Padres superstar was still reaching base at an excellent clip but was clearly performing below his established level. Soto carried a .202/.373/.384 line across 126 plate appearances through the end of April. That came on the heels of a .236/.388/.390 showing in 52 games last summer after one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history.
For most players, those numbers wouldn’t be cause for concern. While the batting averages weren’t eye-catching, consistently excellent walk tallies kept the on-base mark at an elite level. Among qualified hitters, Soto ranked 12th in the majors with a .382 OBP between the time of the trade and the start of this May.
By Soto’s standards, though, that production was a disappointment. He’d been a top-five hitter in MLB virtually from the moment he was promoted as a 19-year-old five seasons back. For him to hit only 11 homers with a .388 slugging percentage through his first 81 games as a Padre was a surprise. A .254 average on balls in play certainly didn’t do him any favors, but the three-time Silver Slugger also seemed relatively out of sorts. In mid-April, he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post he felt he was pulling off too many pitches, resulting in weak ground-ball contact to the pull side.
As the season has gone on, Soto has more consistently found his power stroke. He caught fire in May, hitting .333/.482/.632, resulting in a 202 wRC+ that ranked third among qualified hitters that month. While he’s slowed down in June, he still carries a .302/.433/.524 line over the past six weeks. He’s drawn 29 walks against 28 strikeouts while hitting 13 doubles and five home runs over his last 36 contests.
That’s essentially the kind of production we’ve come to expect from Soto. He’s a career .282/.422/.520 hitter in just under 3000 plate appearances. He’s played essentially at that pace for a month and a half. The beginning of May is an arbitrary endpoint, of course. There’s nothing more meaningful about May 1 than there would be about April 26. It’s nevertheless encouraging to see Soto performing at his typical Nationals level for an extended stretch.
Soto is still pulling the ball on the ground a little more often than he had in prior seasons. That’s not ideal given his April comments about getting out in front of too many pitches. When he puts the ball in the air, though, he’s hitting it harder than he did at the start of the year.
The contact quality was the only potential concern. His strike zone discipline has never wavered. Soto sustaining this level will be crucial for a club that still hasn’t kicked things into gear. His hot stretch coincided with a Manny Machado injury and a dismal recent run of play from Xander Bogaerts. The offense as a whole has yet to get going, leaving the Padres with a 31-34 record heading into tonight’s series opener with the Guardians.
Fortunately for San Diego, few teams in the National League have separated themselves from the pack. The Padres are looking up at a 9.5-game deficit on the Diamondbacks in the NL West, which will obviously be difficult to close, even with more than three months remaining on the schedule. However, they’re only two and a half games behind the Giants and Brewers for the Senior Circuit’s last Wild Card spot. Aside from the Dodgers, no team in the Wild Card mix has a better run differential than San Diego’s +19 figure. Despite the mediocre start, there’s still plenty of time for the Friars to play their way into the postseason picture.
Soto should be a central part of that effort. His start in San Diego raised some eyebrows, but he’s looked much more like himself over the last six weeks. Continued production like that should quiet questions about whether his camp had made a grave mistake turning down a reported $440MM extension offer from Washington before the trade. He has a chance to make last summer and this April look like a blip. He looks on his way to doing so.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans
Episode 9 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- The National League Wild Card race (1:50)
- Will the lack of sellers change how the trade deadline looks? (3:00)
- The returns of Michael Soroka and Tyler Glasnow (4:55)
- Recently-cut veterans like Aaron Hicks, Eric Hosmer, Hunter Dozier and Jesus Aguilar (11:10) (Note: podcast was recorded prior to Hicks signing with the Orioles)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- Will the Giants impact the National League West race? (13:20)
- What do the Padres do with Juan Soto if they fall out of the race? (16:20)
- What will the Twins do before the trade deadline? (18:20)
- What can the Angels do with their rotation? (22:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here
- The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here
- Willson Contreras, the Rays’ success, what’s happening with the Astros – listen here