Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have discussed a contract extension, though it doesn’t appear the two sides got anywhere close to a deal, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The slugger said that he would love to stay in Toronto for his entire career but that the negotiations “haven’t reached the point that there’s something serious about it.”

It’s unclear exactly when these talks took place but Guerrero said in January that extension talks had not yet taken place. That would seemingly point to the negotiations taking place during Spring Training, a fairly standard time for those kinds of conversations.

From the point of view of the Jays, it’s hardly a surprise that they have interest in securing Guerrero’s services for the future. The former top prospect has established himself as a premier hitter in the majors over the past few seasons. He hit 48 home runs in 2021 and slashed .311/.401/.601 for a wRC+ of 166. In most years, that would have been good enough for an MVP award, but Vladdy had the misfortune of having that season coincide with Shohei Ohtani’s true emergence as a two-way player. That led to Guerrero coming in second in the vote behind Ohtani.

Last year, Guerrero dipped slightly but still hit 32 home runs and put up a .274/.339/.480 batting line and 132 wRC+. He also stole eight bases and showed progress with his first base defense, winning a Gold Glove award and coming in seventh among all major league first basemen in the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .400/.472/.556 through 11 games. All of that has coincided with a return to contention for the club, who made the expanded playoffs in 2020 and then tallied 91 and 92 victories in the subsequent two seasons.

But from the player’s point of view, there’s little reason for him to settle for anything below market value, even if his comments about wanting to stay are genuine. As the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, who made millions of dollars in his career, the younger Guerrero likely began from a stronger financial position than many of his peers. On top of that, he was a highly touted player as a teenager, signing a bonus of $3.9MM when he was 16 years old. He’s now progressed through to his arbitration years, first qualifying last year as a Super Two player. He made $7.9MM last year and got that bumped up to $14.5MM this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025.

With all of that money already in the bank and plenty more on the way, Guerrero has tons of leverage. Walking away from money always carries the risk of a serious injury later diminishing one’s earning power, but Guerrero already has plenty of security and is currently slated for free agency ahead of his age-27 season. He doesn’t play a premier defensive position, but his youth and offensive abilities should still make him quite attractive as a free agent if a deal with the Blue Jays doesn’t get done.

The Blue Jays have a few contracts on the books beyond that 2025 season, which is currently lined up to be Guerrero’s last. José Berríos is on the books through 2028 while George Springer and Kevin Gausman are signed through 2026. That leaves plenty of room for a big contract for someone like Guerrero, but the Jays also have other players to consider. Third baseman Matt Chapman is a free agent at the end of this season, while shortstop Bo Bichette is in the same boat as Guerrero, set for free agency after 2025. The club has also reportedly had some talks with right-hander Alek Manoah, though those didn’t appear to gain much traction either. Manoah’s case is less urgent since he’s not slated to hit the open market until after 2027.

Although the talks with Guerrero haven’t made much progress yet, he doesn’t seem to be walking away from the table. “I’m going to take care of what I’ve got to take care of, which is on the field, and the rest I’m going to leave to my agents to work with,” he said. “I know who I am. I know my value. We’re going to keep having conversations, but all my focus every day is here on the field.”

Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. suffered some right knee soreness while running the bases during a Spring Training game on Friday, and an MRI revealed minor inflammation but no structural damage.  Manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Guerrero is “just doing treatment today and staying off of his feet,” in the hopes that the short rest will help correct what appears to be a relatively minor issue for now.

Unfortunately for Guerrero and the Dominican Republic’s national team, however, the timing of the injury occurred just before Guerrero was preparing to join the D.R. club in advance of the World Baseball Classic.  As a result, Guerrero has pulled out of what would have been his first WBC appearance.  Naturally, Guerrero and the Jays don’t want to risk further injury under any circumstance, and especially not since the full extent of Guerrero’s knee problem isn’t yet known.

Guerrero is perhaps the cornerstone of a Blue Jays team that hopes to contend for a World Series title in 2023, and the two-time All-Star is looking to rebound in some sense from his 2022 campaign.  While Guerrero hit .274/.339/.480 with 32 home runs in 708 plate appearances in 2022, this 132 wRC+ performance still represented a step down from his 166 wRC+ in 2021.  Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers in 698 PA that season (leading the league in OBP, slugging percentage, and home runs) and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani.

As Matheson notes, Brandon Belt and Cavan Biggio are the top choices to fill in at first base if Guerrero has to miss any significant time, though Belt hasn’t started yet started playing spring games.  Coming off a pair of injury-shortened seasons, Belt was being brought along slowly, and the Blue Jays intended to use him primarily as a DH this season with Guerrero locked in at first base.  Whit Merrifield also has a bit of experience at first base, albeit with only 15 big league games at the position over his seven MLB seasons.