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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 Home Run Derby?

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The 2023 All-Star festivities have already kicked off, with this past weekend featuring the Futures Game and the start of the MLB Draft. The draft continued today and tonight will feature the Home Run Derby, followed by more drafting and the All-Star game tomorrow. The derby is mostly about entertainment, though there’s also a $1MM prize on the line. That’s chump change to a lot of these players, but not all. The runner-up gets $500K and each other participant gets $150K. The player who hits the longest home run will get an extra $100K. It kicks off at 7pm Central time tonight.

The competition will proceed with head-to-head matchups in a bracket with these eight players, proceeding in order of their seeding: Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis García, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman. Defending champion Juan Soto isn’t participating this year, leaving the throne open for the taking. Let’s take a look at the matchups and some of their stats.

  • Luis Robert Jr. OF, White Sox: Robert is having his best season in many ways, including in the power department. He came into the year with 36 home runs in 222 games but already has 26 this season in just 89 contests. He’s hitting .271/.330/.569 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He has an average exit velocity of 89 mph, max of 113.6 mph and a 15.9% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.
  • Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles: Rutschman debuted last year and hit 13 home runs in 113 games but is already up to 12 this year after just 86 contests. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the season for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, max of 111.1 mph and a 6.7% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the home run derby.

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  • Adolis García, OF, Rangers: García broke out in 2021 with a 31-homer campaign, added another 27 last year and already has 23 here in 2023. Financially, he’s probably the player with the most to gain from the prize money. He’s yet to reach arbitration and that $1MM total is more than his annual salary. He got a $2.5MM bonus when signing with the Cardinals, but that was way back in 2017. Rutschman is the only other player in the field that is both pre-arb and hasn’t signed an extension, but he got a signing bonus of $8.1MM when signing in 2019. Garcia is hitting .261/.331/.517 this year for a wRC+ of 131. He’s hitting .273/.376/.423 on the whole for a wRC+ of 125. He has an average exit velocity of 92.2 mph, max of 115.1 mph and a 16.4% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.
  • Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: Arozarena vaulted himself onto the national stage with 10 home runs in the 2020 postseason. He followed that up by hitting 20 in each of the past two seasons and has another 16 here in 2023. He’s hitting .279/.388/.467 on the year for a wRC+ of 147. He has an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph, max of 114.3 mph and a 14.6% barrel rate. This is his first time participating in the derby.

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  • Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso is the most successful derby participant of the group, winning the competition back-to-back in 2019 and 2021. There was no derby in 2020 due to the pandemic. He attempted to win a third consecutive title last year but was defeated by J-Rod in the semis. He has 172 career home runs and is at 26 this year. He’s slashing .211/.310/.497 for a wRC+ of 123. He has an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph, max of 113.7 mph and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners: Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite with the festivities taking place in Seattle this year. As mentioned, he took out Alonso a year ago but fell to Juan Soto in the finals. He hit 28 home runs as a rookie last year and has added 13 more this year. He’s hitting .249/.310/.411 for a wRC+ of 105. He has an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph, max of 115.5 mph and a 9.8% barrel rate.

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  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF, Dodgers: Betts is 30 years old and this is his seventh time in the All-Star game but this will be his first derby. He has 239 career home runs, including 26 this year. He’s batting .276/.379/.586 overall for a wRC+ of 157. He has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, max of 110.1 mph and a 12.8% barrel rate.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays: Guerrero put on a show in the 2019 contest, hitting 91 home runs overall but falling just short of Alonso in the final round. He has 117 homers in his career and 13 here in 2023. He’s slashing .274/.344/.443 for a wRC+ of 120. He has an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph, max of 116.7 mph and a 13.6% barrel rate.

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The winner of Robert/Rutschman will square off against the winner of García/Arozarena in the semis, while the winner of Alonso/Rodríguez will face the winner of Betts/Guerrero. Before we get to who you think will win, let’s start with who you want to win. (Link to poll for app users)

And who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)

MLB Finalizes Home Run Derby Participants

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Major League Baseball has announced the field for the 2023 Home Run Derby. The full list of participants:

It is a single-elimination bracket. First-round matchups are as follows: Robert/Rutschman, Alonso/Rodríguez, Betts/Guerrero, García/Arozarena. Rodríguez and Alonso are the only two repeat players from last year’s event. Alonso had won the event back-to-back times in 2019-21 (there was no Derby in 2020 because of the pandemic) before Rodríguez knocked him out in the semifinal round last season. Juan Soto took down Rodríguez to win the tournament but declined to try to defend his title.

The Derby will take place Monday evening at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Under the collective bargaining agreement, the winner will receive $1MM. The runner-up takes home $500K, while every other participant receives $150K. The player who hits the longest home run wins $100K.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

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The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

AL East Notes: Cleavinger, Guerrero, Severino

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Rays reliever Garrett Cleavinger suffered a knee injury during the 10th inning of today’s 7-6 victory over the Yankees.  Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Cleavinger’s knee “grabbed on him” during a critical rundown play that eventually saw Aaron Hicks thrown out at home plate while trying to score the go-ahead run.  More will be known once Cleavinger undergoes testing, but Cash indicated that the left-hander will likely be placed on the 15-day injured list.

Like most hurlers on the league-leading Rays, Cleavinger is having a nice season, with a 3.00 ERA over 15 appearances and 12 innings pitched.  A 13% walk rate and a .160 BABIP are red flags, but Cleavinger is missing a lot of bats (30.4% strikeout rate) and is doing an excellent job of inducing soft contact.  Tampa has Colin Poche, Jalen Beeks, and Josh Fleming already in the bullpen as other left-handed options, though Fleming has recently been enlisted into bulk pitcher duty.  If the Rays aren’t concerned about keeping the lefty/righty balance in their pen, they can turn to any number of arms in the farm system, and hopefully Cleavinger won’t be sidelined for too long.

More from around the AL East…

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has missed the Blue Jays’ last two games due to soreness in his left wrist, though MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson tweets that Guerrero was feeling slightly better today.  Naturally the Jays are being as cautious as possible with the star slugger, while also hoping that Guerrero can avoid an IL stint altogether.  Toronto has off-days on both Monday and Thursday this week, and manager John Schneider said Guerrero will be re-evaluated prior to the Jays’ game Tuesday with the Phillies.
  • Luis Severino is slated for a Triple-A rehab start on Wednesday or Thursday this week, as the Yankees right-hander gets closer to making his 2023 debut.  Severino suffered a right lat strain near the end of Spring Training that resulted in a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL, though he told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that he felt the Yankees were being too conservative in his rehab plan.  For instance, Severino thought he could’ve started his rehab assignment last week rather than throwing a 40-pitch simulated game, as he felt working in a proper game environment with a pitch clock was more helpful in getting him ready for a big league return.  New York manager Aaron Boone said that Severino will need to make at least two rehab starts before being reinstated from the IL, so given the team’s cautious approach, Severino might not be back until the Yankees’ May 23-25 series with the Orioles.

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Have Discussed Extension

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The Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have discussed a contract extension, though it doesn’t appear the two sides got anywhere close to a deal, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The slugger said that he would love to stay in Toronto for his entire career but that the negotiations “haven’t reached the point that there’s something serious about it.”

It’s unclear exactly when these talks took place but Guerrero said in January that extension talks had not yet taken place. That would seemingly point to the negotiations taking place during Spring Training, a fairly standard time for those kinds of conversations.

From the point of view of the Jays, it’s hardly a surprise that they have interest in securing Guerrero’s services for the future. The former top prospect has established himself as a premier hitter in the majors over the past few seasons. He hit 48 home runs in 2021 and slashed .311/.401/.601 for a wRC+ of 166. In most years, that would have been good enough for an MVP award, but Vladdy had the misfortune of having that season coincide with Shohei Ohtani’s true emergence as a two-way player. That led to Guerrero coming in second in the vote behind Ohtani.

Last year, Guerrero dipped slightly but still hit 32 home runs and put up a .274/.339/.480 batting line and 132 wRC+. He also stole eight bases and showed progress with his first base defense, winning a Gold Glove award and coming in seventh among all major league first basemen in the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .400/.472/.556 through 11 games. All of that has coincided with a return to contention for the club, who made the expanded playoffs in 2020 and then tallied 91 and 92 victories in the subsequent two seasons.

But from the player’s point of view, there’s little reason for him to settle for anything below market value, even if his comments about wanting to stay are genuine. As the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, who made millions of dollars in his career, the younger Guerrero likely began from a stronger financial position than many of his peers. On top of that, he was a highly touted player as a teenager, signing a bonus of $3.9MM when he was 16 years old. He’s now progressed through to his arbitration years, first qualifying last year as a Super Two player. He made $7.9MM last year and got that bumped up to $14.5MM this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025.

With all of that money already in the bank and plenty more on the way, Guerrero has tons of leverage. Walking away from money always carries the risk of a serious injury later diminishing one’s earning power, but Guerrero already has plenty of security and is currently slated for free agency ahead of his age-27 season. He doesn’t play a premier defensive position, but his youth and offensive abilities should still make him quite attractive as a free agent if a deal with the Blue Jays doesn’t get done.

The Blue Jays have a few contracts on the books beyond that 2025 season, which is currently lined up to be Guerrero’s last. José Berríos is on the books through 2028 while George Springer and Kevin Gausman are signed through 2026. That leaves plenty of room for a big contract for someone like Guerrero, but the Jays also have other players to consider. Third baseman Matt Chapman is a free agent at the end of this season, while shortstop Bo Bichette is in the same boat as Guerrero, set for free agency after 2025. The club has also reportedly had some talks with right-hander Alek Manoah, though those didn’t appear to gain much traction either. Manoah’s case is less urgent since he’s not slated to hit the open market until after 2027.

Although the talks with Guerrero haven’t made much progress yet, he doesn’t seem to be walking away from the table. “I’m going to take care of what I’ve got to take care of, which is on the field, and the rest I’m going to leave to my agents to work with,” he said. “I know who I am. I know my value. We’re going to keep having conversations, but all my focus every day is here on the field.”

Injury Notes: Marte, Guzman, Guerrero, O’Hearn, Hall

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Starling Marte will undergo further tests on Monday after being hit in the head by an Elvin Rodriguez pitch in today’s game.  Marte was able to walk off the field by himself and initial concussion tests were negative, yet the Mets will naturally be very careful in monitoring any sort of head-related injury.

It was only Marte’s second game of Spring Training, as he didn’t take the field until last Friday due to the Mets’ desire to slowly bring Marte back up to speed following groin surgery in November.  The club expected the outfielder to be ready for Opening Day, and that should still be the case, if Marte has indeed escaped injury after today’s scary incident.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Ronald Guzman left today’s Cactus League game in obvious pain after throwing a pitch, and Giants manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group) that Guzman was undergoing tests for discomfort in his forearm.  It’s an ominous turn of events for Guzman, who has been one of Spring Training’s more interesting stories as he pursues a new chapter in his career as a two-way player.  The former Rangers/Yankees first baseman inked a minor league deal with the Giants, in large part because San Francisco was the only team willing to give Guzman a chance to pitch.
  • Knee inflammation kept Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from participating in the World Baseball Classic, and the Blue Jays slugger hasn’t played in any spring games since last Friday.  However, Guerrero has been facing live pitching and taking part in fielding drills, and manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Guerrero reported no issues after running the bases.  If all goes well after another base-running session tomorrow, the Jays will have a better idea of when Guerrero can get back to game action.  With over two weeks to go until Opening Day, it doesn’t yet appear as though Guerrero is in danger of missing any of the regular season, but more will be known once the first baseman is fully ramped up.
  • Orioles outfielder/first baseman Ryan O’Hearn is day to day with a sore knee.  The injury is a minor setback in what has been a red-hot Spring Training for O’Hearn, as he tries to win a job on Baltimore’s bench.  In other Orioles news, manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski and other media that DL Hall threw “extremely well” during a live batting practice session, and is slated for another live BP on Tuesday.  Hall’s progress in camp has been slowed by lower-back problems and he has yet to pitch in a game, so the southpaw’s only chance of making the Opening Day roster is as a reliever.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Dealing With Knee Inflammation, Withdraws From WBC

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Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. suffered some right knee soreness while running the bases during a Spring Training game on Friday, and an MRI revealed minor inflammation but no structural damage.  Manager John Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) that Guerrero is “just doing treatment today and staying off of his feet,” in the hopes that the short rest will help correct what appears to be a relatively minor issue for now.

Unfortunately for Guerrero and the Dominican Republic’s national team, however, the timing of the injury occurred just before Guerrero was preparing to join the D.R. club in advance of the World Baseball Classic.  As a result, Guerrero has pulled out of what would have been his first WBC appearance.  Naturally, Guerrero and the Jays don’t want to risk further injury under any circumstance, and especially not since the full extent of Guerrero’s knee problem isn’t yet known.

Guerrero is perhaps the cornerstone of a Blue Jays team that hopes to contend for a World Series title in 2023, and the two-time All-Star is looking to rebound in some sense from his 2022 campaign.  While Guerrero hit .274/.339/.480 with 32 home runs in 708 plate appearances in 2022, this 132 wRC+ performance still represented a step down from his 166 wRC+ in 2021.  Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers in 698 PA that season (leading the league in OBP, slugging percentage, and home runs) and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani.

As Matheson notes, Brandon Belt and Cavan Biggio are the top choices to fill in at first base if Guerrero has to miss any significant time, though Belt hasn’t started yet started playing spring games.  Coming off a pair of injury-shortened seasons, Belt was being brought along slowly, and the Blue Jays intended to use him primarily as a DH this season with Guerrero locked in at first base.  Whit Merrifield also has a bit of experience at first base, albeit with only 15 big league games at the position over his seven MLB seasons.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

AL East Notes: Guerrero, Sale, Rays

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays “haven’t had the conversations yet” this winter about a multi-year extension, the slugger tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters.  Guerrero didn’t sound overly concerned about the lack of talks, saying “I’m going to stay focused on working hard and let my team take care of that.”  The idea of a long-term deal between Guerrero and the Jays has been a topic essentially since Guerrero arrived in the majors as baseball’s top prospect, and though the first baseman is heading into his fifth MLB season, the clock isn’t yet ticking too loudly on Guerrero’s team control.  Toronto still has arbitration control over Guerrero through the 2025 season, and the two sides already worked out a contract for Guerrero for 2023, as he’ll earn $14.5MM for the coming year.

With Guerrero set to become a free agent prior to his age-27 season, this relatively early entry into the market likely means a particularly large payday is awaiting the first baseman — whether from another team, or in the form of an extension from the Blue Jays to lock Guerrero up as the face of the franchise.  As Davidi notes, the massive longer-term contracts handed out this winter undoubtedly caught the attention of both the Jays and Guerrero’s representatives, and now both sides may have a better view of what it might cost the Blue Jays to retain Guerrero’s services.  Since most extension talks usually don’t begin until deeper into Spring Training, it will be interesting to watch if Guerrero and the Jays have any substantive negotiations, or if any real progress is made towards an extension.

More from the AL East…

  • After three injury-riddled seasons, Chris Sale told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) that he is “very, very excited” about being healthy and heading for his first normal Spring Training since 2019.  Between a Tommy John surgery, a fractured rib, and fractures to his finger and wrist, Sale has pitched only 48 1/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2020 season, which was also the first season of a five-year, $145MM contract extension Sale had signed with the Red Sox the year prior.  Given the lack of return on this extension, Sale feels “I owe my teammates the starting pitcher they thought they were going to get.  I owe the front office the starting pitcher they paid for.  I owe the fans performances they’re paying to come and see.”  Looking for a silver lining to his injury woes, Sale noted “that’s three years of [pitching] that’s not on my arm” as he enters his age-34 season.  “That’s not going on the odometer.  I’ve kept myself in really good physical shape.  My arm’s feeling good.  I don’t have any hesitation going forward with pitching.”
  • Seven Rays players are slated for arbitration hearings, which is (as per MLB.com) is the third-highest number of hearings for any team in the history of the arb process.  President of baseball operations Erik Neander felt the lack of agreement in negotiations with the seven prior to the arbitration filing deadline were “much more about the uniqueness of several players’ career paths leading to a bit of a more challenging experience for both parties to find common ground,” the executive told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  “But I very much believe that everyone worked to find it — we just didn’t quite get there.”  As Topkin notes, the differences between the Rays’ submitted salary figures and the seven players’ figures work out to only $2.85MM in total.  That said, it doesn’t seem likely that any deals will be worked out before the sides present their cases to an arbiter, unless a player signs a multi-year contract.  [RELATED: the full list of the 33 players who are heading for arbitration hearings]

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration

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The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in agreement on a $14.5MM deal for the 2023 season to avoid arbitration, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Guerrero Jr., who has spent his entire career as a member of the Blue Jays organization, was the universally-recognized top prospect in baseball ahead of his major league debut in 2019. While his debut season was solid for a rookie, it failed to meet those lofty expectations as he slashed .271/.339/.433 (106 wRC+) across 123 games in the big leagues. The shortened 2020 season was more of the same for Guerrero Jr. as he posted a wRC+ of 110 while largely repeating his 2019 stats, with slight improvements to his ISO and strikeout rate being largely cancelled out by a drop in his BABIP.

Guerrero Jr. fulfilled the promise of his top prospect status and then some in 2021, however. In 161 games, Guerrero Jr. slashed a phenomenal .311/.401/.601, good for a whopping 166 wRC+ that led the slugger not only to his first All Star appearance, but a second place finish in MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. Following that banner season, Guerrero Jr. came back down to earth somewhat in 2022, though he was still far better than he had been in the first two seasons of his career. A slash line of .274/.339/.480 was good for a wRC+ of 132, a second All Star appearance, and some down-ballot MVP votes.

The $14.5MM agreement ties the record set by Pete Alonso earlier today for highest salary among arbitration-eligible first basemen. Guerrero will again be eligible for arbitration both next offseason and ahead of the 2025 campaign, and is set to become a free agent during the 2025-26 offseason. It’s possible Toronto will lock Guerrero Jr. up before then, however, seeing as the slugger publicly stated that he was open to a long-term extension earlier this offseason. Today’s agreement does not preclude a longer deal later on this offseason, though there haven’t been many rumblings of such an agreement being in the works to this point.

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