MLBTR Originals

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Yu Darvish?

By Connor Byrne | January 14, 2018 at 4:14pm CDT

Two-plus months into what has been an abnormal MLB offseason, right-hander Yu Darvish remains one of several high-profile players without a contract. In general, the open market hasn’t been kind to rotation pieces this winter, as righty Tyler Chatwood’s fairly modest deal with the Cubs (three years, $38MM) ranks as the largest guarantee given to a starter thus far. He signed that pact Dec. 7, and it seemed unthinkable then that every one of the elite free agent starters – Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn – would still be available over a month later. And yet, all are without teams on Jan. 14.

Darvish is likely the best of the bunch, someone MLBTR predicted would land a six-year, $160MM contract entering the offseason, and has drawn the most headlines of the group this winter. Earlier this week, the 31-year-old top-of-the-rotation arm was reportedly deciding among six teams – the Rangers and Dodgers (his two previous employers) as well as the Yankees, Twins, Cubs and Astros. Houston is probably out of the race after acquiring righty Gerrit Cole from the Pirates on Saturday, thus giving the reigning World Series champions yet another quality starter in a rotation packed with them.

The Yankees and Twins were also among teams with interest in Cole this offseason, though the former isn’t necessarily in dire need of help in their rotation. With Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery comprising the Yankees’ starting quintet, general manager Brian Cashman likely doesn’t feel an urgency to splurge on anyone via free agency or trade. The Yankees don’t seem to be in position to reel in Darvish anyway, of course, as their goal of staying under the $197MM competitive balance tax threshold in 2018 looks like a major roadblock in this situation. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) estimates that the Yankees have already committed around $167MM to 15 players, which makes a Darvish signing a long shot even if he inks a deal for significantly less than our roughly $27MM-per-year forecast. In an ideal world for the Yankees, they’d be able to dump a sizable portion of reserve outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s $68.4MM on someone to create spending room, but that’s a tall order.

Unlike the Yankees, both the Twins and Rangers clearly need to bolster their rotations prior to the upcoming season. Minnesota managed its first playoff berth since 2010 last year, but it did so with little in the way of answers beyond Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios in its starting staff. And now, with no money on the books past the 2019 season, the small-market Twins are in position to make a splash. Their front office also happens to include GM Thad Levine, who was with Darvish in Texas from 2012-16.

Darvish still has an affinity for the Rangers, with whom he has spent nearly all of his career, but they don’t seem to have the payroll wiggle room to make a reunion happen. Moreover, the Rangers may be the weakest of the teams pursuing Darvish, considering they won 78 games last year while the others made the playoffs. Still, as one of the clubs remaining in the race for Darvish’s services, we shouldn’t dismiss the Rangers outright. Needless to say, Darvish would be a far more exciting addition than Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore, all of whom have joined the Rangers’ still-shaky rotation this winter.

Shifting to the National League, the Cubs seem bent on reeling in another established starter – whether it’s Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb or a trade piece (Chris Archer?) – to join Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Jon Lester and Chatwood. The fact that Chicago has the financial means and desire to upgrade its rotation in a notable way could make the team the favorite for Darvish on paper. The Dodgers have also been known for their financial might, but like the Yankees, tax concerns have helped shape their winter thus far. It has been a quiet couple months for the reigning NL champs, whose only impact newcomers are inexpensive relievers. The Dodgers have committed approximately $186MM to their 2018 roster, per Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource, making a Darvish reunion hard to envision.

Based on everything we know, the Twins and Cubs may be the best bets to win the Darvish derby. However, we’re still not going to rule out any of the other reported suitors or a mystery team from nabbing him. Where do you expect him to pitch in 2018?

(Poll link for App users)

Who Will Sign Yu Darvish?

Cubs 26.12% (7,483 votes)

Yankees 18.73% (5,366 votes)

Twins 17.67% (5,062 votes)

Someone else 15.95% (4,571 votes)

Rangers 12.91% (3,698 votes)

Dodgers 8.63% (2,474 votes)

Total Votes: 28,654

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | January 14, 2018 at 8:46am CDT

Here is the MLBTR writing staff’s original content from the past week…

Friday was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange figures on contracts for 2018, and thus there was a distinct arbitration-centric focus to this week’s MLBTR Originals. Contributor Matt Swartz outlined some of the more high-profile and intriguing arb cases in his Arbitration Breakdown series, looking at Josh Donaldson (link), Kris Bryant (link), George Springer (link), Charlie Blackmon (link), Jacob deGrom (link), Jose Abreu and Marcell Ozuna (link).
Aside from the Padres’ deal with Brad Hand, this year’s arbitration class has thus far been short on any major extensions. Jeff Todd looks at the biggest multi-year contracts signed by players while they were still eligible for arbitration.
Could Christian Yelich have so much trade value that the Marlins may find it impossible to trade the outfielder for a fair return? This Catch-22 is explored by Kyle Downing in his latest look at Yelich’s trade market.
The Pirates’ remaining trade chips are profiled by Connor Byrne in the latest “Taking Inventory” entry. Since Connor’s piece was published a week ago, the Bucs finally moved one of their biggest names, trading Gerrit Cole to the Astros.
Tim Dillard is back with his first Inner Monologue of the offseason, as the veteran Brewers right-hander discusses his day-to-day winter routine, Eggos, baseball card facts, society’s lack of flying cars, and many more topics.

Exploring The Trade Value Of Christian Yelich

By Kyle Downing | January 14, 2018 at 12:11am CDT

The name of Marlins’ outfielder Christian Yelich is one that has popped up frequently in both trade rumors and trade speculation so far this offseason. The topic has certainly been covered at length (four links) here at MLBTR, and the frequency of Yelich mentions has continued to rise with each major trade Miami has made this winter. Save for maybe the Yankees, there isn’t a team in MLB who wouldn’t benefit from adding Yelich to their lineup and outfield. Therefore, the search for an ideal trade partner for the Marlins seems quite simple: any team with a farm system strong enough to pry him out of their grasp.

And yet, things are not nearly that simple in reality. Yelich is one of the top performers in baseball. Across the past four seasons combined, he ranks within MLB’s top 30 in batting average, on-base percentage and fWAR, and is within the top 50 in wOBA and wRC+. He’s a serviceable option in center field, as well, though DRS (-6 for 2017) and UZR/150 (-0.7 for 2017) don’t quite agree on his defensive value there. Regardless, Yelich ought to be considered a fantastic offensive talent at a premium defensive position. That makes his trade candidacy incredibly complicated when we factor in the team-friendly nature of his contract, which has four years and just $43.25MM remaining along with a $15MM option for 2023 ($1.25MM buyout).

Needless to say, Yelich would provide immense value to any club with the means to acquire him. After producing 15.9 fWAR over the past four seasons combined, he’s likely to be viewed as one of the most reliable outfielders in existence. The problem (which I’m sure you’ve inferred by now) is that the cost to trade for him would be absolutely enormous.

The best comp in my eyes for a potential Yelich deal is last offseason’s Adam Eaton trade. Eaton had produced 13.1 fWAR over the course of three full seasons with the White Sox while posting very similar batting averages and on-base percentages to those of Yelich. At the time, his contract had three years and just under $20MM remaining, plus two club options that could bring the total value of the deal to $38.4MM across five seasons. In order to swing a deal, the Nationals sent a deluge of minor-league talent to the White Sox. The headliner of the package was righty Lucas Giolito, who at the time was a consensus top-five prospect in baseball. Supplementing the return were fellow right-handed pitchers Reynaldo Lopez (then MLB.com’s #38 overall prospect) and Dane Dunning, whom the Nats had selected in the first round of the draft earlier that year.

On the surface, the return for Chicago appears to be one of the best prospect packages exchanged for a single player in recent memory. Were we to assume Yelich must warrant a similar return, at least half of the teams in MLB would be immediately eliminated from the Marlins’ pool of suitors simply because they don’t own that caliber of minor-league talent. Most of the others are rebuilding clubs who don’t have the kind of urgency that would motivate them to relinquish such a plethora of prospects.

The caveat of all this is that Yelich may be an even more valuable trade asset than Eaton. At the time of his trade, Eaton was 28 years old, meaning he’ll be playing with the Nationals through his age-32 season. While that’s certainly not a prohibitive age, a large portion of Eaton’s value is tied up in his stolen base ability and his outfield defense. It’s not uncommon for those skills to begin a gradual decline at the age of 30. Yelich. on the other hand, will enter the 2018 season at the age of just 26, and he won’t even turn 31 until after the end of the 2022 season. Yelich’s on-base and power capabilities are far less likely to decline by that time. And the fact that he’s just now entering his prime implies that there could even be room for improvement on his career outputs. While I should caution that this is all just conjecture, it’s based on trends we’ve observed in baseball for some time. The overall point I’m trying to make is that there seems to be more upside in Yelich’s contract than there was in Eaton’s at the time he was traded.

Obviously, it’s difficult to imagine any team forking over a package better than the one the White Sox received for Eaton, but that’s likely the kind of return the Fish will be looking for, particularly in light of reports that they’d need to be blown away by an offer. Now, it’s not like legitimate trade partners don’t exist. Teams like the Indians, Astros, Blue Jays and Braves, for instance, have both the prospects to get a deal done and a role for Yelich available in their outfield. But the prospects those teams would probably need to part with (Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley and J.B. Bukauskas, as a purely hypothetical reference point) have plenty of upside themselves, and trading them for Yelich would prove the equivalent of putting an awful lot of eggs in one basket.

In the end, Yelich may simply be a player for whom no team would be willing to pay a fair price. And even if a team decides to step up and offer to obliterate their farm system, there’s still a chance the Marlins would hold onto Yelich for other reasons. For example, Atlanta and Miami were reportedly gaining some traction in trade talks during the winter meetings, but the Marlins pulled back following some PR backlash about the sale of other valuable assets. Additionally, with five years left on his contract, there’s a chance that Yelich could still be under team control during the next season in which the Marlins have a reasonable shot to contend.

A deal involving Yelich this offseason is surely not out of the question. But the complexities of his trade candidacy will, at the very least, mean that trade talks will require immense commitments of time and energy from front office personnel. Even if the barriers of the trade aren’t insurmountable, reaching an agreement to ship Yelich to another club will be a very difficult task for the Marlins to accomplish.

Photo Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Donaldson

By Matt Swartz | January 12, 2018 at 9:22am CDT

Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

Josh Donaldson enters his third year of arbitration with an already extraordinarily high $17MM salary. This would already be the highest ever one-year deal signed in arbitration (with the exception of Bryce Harper’s 2018 salary, inked back in May) and Donaldson will certainly command a raise above that. The highest one-year deal ever signed went to Prince Fielder in 2011 at $15.5MM. However, Buster Posey and Ryan Howard earned $20MM during years generally covered by arbitration as part of multi-year deals inked earlier in their careers.

Generally, players who are beyond their first year of arbitration are effectively given raises, rather than absolute salaries, and my research has determined that these raises are almost exclusively based on their platform season. That is how my model is set up. In other words, Donaldson is projected to earn $20.7MM because the model projects a $3.7MM raise for a player with his 2017 performance.

However, Donaldson received a two-year deal covering 2016-17, making his case somewhat tricky. We sometimes see players in such circumstances being paid as a “re-slot” case, which means they are slotted back into the arbitration system based on career performance. So it is possible that Donaldson’s performance prior to 2017 will be considered. However, that would probably push his salary even further above the current record and seems unlikely.

Like many others in the league this season, Donaldson could see his case impacted by the record level of home runs that were hit in Major League Baseball in 2017. Big league hitters combined for a total of 6,105 total home runs — a whopping 26 percent increase over the average from the past five seasons. When I look at players with similar home run totals in that span, it isn’t clear if an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Donaldson as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs.

In recent years, data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration, and as such, my model does not adjust for league run environment in this way. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in low-scoring years, and pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years.

Donaldson hit 33 home runs but did so only in 496 plate appearances, and that total was only accompanied 78 RBIs. If we re-adjust his home run baseline to the average of the last five years, that would put us at 26. If we allow for the possibility that a potential panel might consider his home run total to be inflated, we might want to look for other players who hit 25 home runs. But playing time is a huge factor in arbitration, so we would want to look for players who did not play full seasons.

If we even limit to players with 25 home runs and under 600 PAs, we only get five players in the last five seasons. These are actually the same five players who hit 25 home runs but had fewer than 90 RBIs as well. They are Lucas Duda (who got a $2.5MM raise two years ago), Luis Valbuena (who got a $1.9MM raise two years ago), Brandon Moss (who got a $2.4MM raise three years ago), Chris Davis (who got a $1.65MM raise three years ago), and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (who got a $2MM raise five years ago).

All five of these players had batting averages between .196 and .244, so Donaldson at .270 is far above them. They also all hit between 25 and 27 home runs, which means Donaldson’s mark total of 33 will probably place him above that group as well. Valbuena and Saltamacchia are poor comparables because their averages were in the .220s and both had fewer than 60 RBIs. Davis, who hit .196, is probably also low. So we would rather compare Donaldson to Duda (.244/27/73) or Moss (.234/25/81). But it is clear that these are both probably floors, since Donaldson bests them on all major fronts considered in arbitration. That leads me to believe that Donaldson should definitely get a raise above $2.5MM.

If we relax the home run assumption and look for players who had fewer than 600 PAs, we find a couple other recent players who got raises around $2.9MM. Justin Smoak hit .226/18/59 in 328 PAs in 2016, and Steve Pearce hit .293/21/49 in 383 PAs in 2015. Both seem like floors as well. So we have to assume Donaldson probably pulls in above $3MM.

If we relax the playing time assumption, we could arrive at Todd Frazier in 2017. He hit .225/40/98 in 666 PAs, so while his batting average was low, the more-important home run and plate appearance totals put him as a clear favorite. He received a $3.75MM raise last year, so that seems like a plausible ceiling for Donaldson.

All of the players listed here were actually reaching arbitration for only their third year of eligibility and Donaldson is actually entering his fourth year of eligibility (his first year was 2015, before his two-year pact for 2016-17). If we want to strictly adhere to finding a fourth time eligible, we could see Eric Hosmer last year at .266/25/104 in 667 PAs. He got a $4MM raise and could potentially be a good comparable as well.

I think the model is pretty close to accurate for Donaldson in this case. I could see an argument for a raise in the low 3’s rather than the high 3’s, putting him between $20MM and $20.5MM instead of $20.7MM, but I do not think he will go lower than that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: George Springer

By Matt Swartz | January 11, 2018 at 9:53pm CDT

George Springer enters his second year of arbitration eligibility (as a Super Two player) having compiled a solid .283 average to go along with 34 home runs and 85 runs batted in in 2017. As a result, he is projected for a $5MM raise to take him up to an $8.9MM salary in 2018.

One thing complicating Springer’s case is something that could affect a great number of cases this year—the high home run level throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs, which represented a 26 percent increase over the league average from the previous five seasons. As such, when examining players with similar totals over that five-year span, there’s no way of knowing whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Springer the same as they would in an environment when home runs were less prolific.

My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; rather, the data has shown that run environment has not historically been a significant component in the arbitration process. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years, and pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years. Springer could potentially be treated by a panel (or negotiated with in the shadow of what such a panel would say) as someone who hit closer to 26 home runs than someone with 34. But even still, his list of comparables shows solid earning potential.

There have only been a couple players entering their second year of eligibility with averages north of .275 and at least 25 home runs in the past five years, and both are from last year. Manny Machado got a $6.5MM raise after hitting .294 with 37 homers and 96 RBIs. Charlie Blackmon got a $3.8MM raise after hitting .324 with 29 home runs and knocking in 82 runs.

Machado is a more obvious ceiling because his numbers are not inflated by Coors Field, and he hit substantially more home runs than Blackmon in 2016. Blackmon might serve as a floor in Springer’s case due to the fact that he hit fewer balls into the seats, despite playing in Coors. However, his high batting average could make him more favorable at the same time. In the end, I think Springer might be closer to Blackmon than he is to Machado.

Few other players really show up as decent comparables, especially when limiting the field to those who did not sign multi-year deals. Looking to a statistical comparable that did sign a multi-year deal, J.D. Martinez signed a two-year contract covering 2016-17 which included a $3MM raise in the first year of the pact. It also was preceded by an exchange of figures in which Martinez asked for a $4.25MM raise, while the Tigers countered with an offer of a $2.25MM raise. Considering Martinez’s .282, 38 homers and 102 RBIs in the platform season for that two-year deal, this could suggest a lower number for Springer.

I am guessing Springer ends up closer to a $4MM raise than $5MM based on the cases of Blackmon and Martinez. But with little comparability and the uncertainty of how a panel will consider the relevance of Coors Field or Martinez’s multi-year deal, Springer may be able to land closer to that $5MM raise. This would still be south of Machado’s $6.5MM raise but would safely beat the other two players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

By Matt Swartz | January 11, 2018 at 11:41am CDT

Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant enters arbitration for the first time with a compelling case to compete with historical records. The current record for first time eligible players still goes all the way back to Ryan Howard in 2008, who earned $10MM after a 47 home run season that brought his career total to 129 home runs. While that price point is now ten years old, it is still an unbroken record. Buster Posey got close with $8MM, but that is already five years old.

Those two players share something in common with Bryant and no one else: they had received both a Rookie of the Year Award and a Most Valuable Player Award prior to entering arbitration. The only other such player would have been Mike Trout, but he signed a multi-year deal the year before reaching arbitration eligibility. Awards can be a huge part of arbitration hearings, especially for first-time eligible players like this, which immediately explains why Bryant is projected to earn $8.9MM, nearly halfway between Posey and Howard. Joey Votto also had an MVP Award (but no ROY) in 2011 when he received an $8MM salary, but he ended up agreeing to a multi-year deal and did not exchange figures before that, so he is not very useful for our purposes.

When it comes to actual numbers rather than hardware, Bryant has a good case as well. He hit .295/29/73 in his platform year and has amassed .288/94/274 for his career. Howard hit .268/47/136 in his platform, with .291/129/353 in his career. So he would be appear to represent a ceiling if the deal was more recent. That said, Bryant might argue that his case is old enough that it should not act as a ceiling on his earnings.

Posey hit .336/24/103 in his platform year and had .314/46/191 for his career line entering arbitration. The batting average (and the fact that he is a catcher) makes Posey look more favorable, but the fact that Bryant has twice the career home runs might make his case more impressive in a process that leans heavily on home runs. Votto’s numbers are actually somewhat closer though, with a .324/37/113 platfrom and .314/90/298 career. Of course, his multi-year deal limits his usefulness as a comparable.

Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado could serve as floors. Neither had the hardware, and both had relatively similar numbers except for far fewer career home runs when they entered the arb process. Machado had a .286/35/86 platform and a .281/68/215 career, while Arenado had a .287/42/130 platform and a .281/70/243 career. So I would guess that their identical $5MM salaries two years ago are a solid floor for Bryant.

I suspect Posey might actually be the best comparable, despite the fact that he plays a premium defensive position. Adding in salary inflation, his $8MM salary in 2013 puts Bryant around $9.5MM. I suspect he will not break Howard’s record, so this seems pretty believable. The Cubs could easily try to argue for a lower number like Arenado or Machado, but probably will have trouble making that case. However, the team could still try to push Bryant south of Posey’s $8MM. There is a large range of plausible outcomes for a case like this; it would represent a fascinating hearing if it went to a panel.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom

By Matt Swartz | January 11, 2018 at 7:55am CDT

Jacob deGrom enters his second year of arbitration eligibility poised to earn a solid bump up from his $4.05MM salary from 2017. He went 15-10 with a 3.53 ERA in 201.1 innings and struck out 239 batters, so my model places him at $9.2MM, good for a $5.1MM raise. This is probably too high based on comparables, as I discuss below, but it should easily be enough to earn him a large raise.

Players who are past their first year of arbitration eligibility general get raises based on their platform year performance only. So we just need to look for pitchers with roughly 15 wins and a ton of strikeouts, along with respectable ERAs. One such player who got a very large raise is David Price—he got a $5.76MM raise back in 2013 after going 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA and 205 punch outs. That is probably somewhat stale by now, although it certainly looks like a ceiling given the much stronger performance in terms of wins and ERA. A more recent ceiling might be Jake Arrieta’s $7.07MM raise two years ago after going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA. Like Price, he won a Cy Young, and clearly has better numbers. I think both Price and Arrieta cap how high deGrom’s raise can get.

More within striking distance is Stephen Strasburg three years ago. He went 14-11 versus deGrom’s 15-10. And his 3.14 ERA is better than deGrom’s 3.53, but when you consider run environment it’s nearly a dead ringer. A panel might not consider run environment, but either way both have ERAs in the 3’s. Strasburg’s 242 strikeouts are of course very similar to deGrom’s 239. Strasburg took home a $3.43MM raise. Add in some salary inflation, and you might get closer to $4MM for deGrom.

Strasburg is actually the largest raise in the last five years excluding the two Cy Young Award winners (Arrieta and Price), so that might be the best comparable. Tyson Ross had a 13-14 record the same year as Strasburg and just 195 strikeouts, but had a 2.81 ERA. He got a $3.27MM raise. But that is likely to fall below where deGrom gets, and could be viewed as something of a floor. ERA is generally not as important in arbitration as you might expect.

Garrett Richards is the only other comparable that makes sense to me. His $3.23MM raise two years ago off a 15-12/3.65 performance came with only 176 strikeouts, though. So he also likely helps to establish a floor for deGrom.

Overall, I think there is a good case case for deGrom to get a raise closer to $4MM than the $5.1MM projection. Look for a salary around $8MM when push comes to shove.

Arbitration Breakdown: Charlie Blackmon

By Matt Swartz | January 10, 2018 at 10:36pm CDT

Charlie Blackmon put up some gaudy numbers in 2017, hitting .331 to go along with 37 home runs and 104 RBIs. As a result, my model projected him for a very high raise. However, the model also utilizes something called the Kimbrel Rule– which states that no player gets projected for an increase more than $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class. This limits Blackmon to a $6.1MM raise, which lands him at a $13.4MM projection for the 2018 season. Truth be told, though, the model actually spit out a $16.8MM salary estimate!

There are two different run environment factors to consider for Blackmon that could be inflating the way his number would be viewed by an arbitration panel. Blackmon plays his home games at Coors Field, a notorious home run park. FanGraphs gives Rockies’ players a 116 park factor, suggesting Blackmon’s 37 home runs might be the equivalent of 32 home runs in a more neutral setting.

Further inflating Blackmon’s home run total is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the dramatically increased level of home runs throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Blackmon as similar to other players with the same number of home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs.

My model does not adjust for league or park home run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years. Pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years.

If you knock down Blackmon’s home run total by league and park effects, he lands somewhere around the equivalent of 25 home runs in a neutral park in a prior season. But of course, that may not be what the panel considers. Most likely, they will just compare him (favorably) to the current record-holder in this service class, which is Chase Headley from 2013. Headley hit .286 with 31 homers, 115 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in the platform season for his final trip through the arbitration process.

Blackmon outperformed Headley in both homers and average, and he also stole 14 bags, further helping his case. It seems likely to Blackmon will be seen as favorable to Headley — especially considering the fact that Headley’s case is already five years old — so I think earning a raise north of $6MM seems likely.

If we’re looking for other recent players with a lot of home runs who reached arbitration, Todd Frazier’s name emerges. He hit 40 home runs in his platform season, but at .225, his average was more than a hundred points below Blackmon’s. Frazier got a $3.75MM raise, which Blackmon should easily crush.

Eric Hosmer is another potential comparable, but he’s also clearly a player with an inferior case to that of Blackmon. In 2016, Hosmer’s platform before his final trip through arbitration, he hit .266 with 25 homers and 104 RBIs. Blackmon has him handled in every category, so Hosmer’s $4MM raise is another example of a potential floor for Blackmon’s raise.

I think it’s clear that Blackmon is going to set a new record. The “Kimbrel Rule” has worked very well since its inception, and I think it will apply well here. Look for Blackmon to land somewhere between $13-14MM, with some chance of going slightly above that if and when he settles on a one-year deal for the 2018 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Breakdown: Marcell Ozuna and Jose Abreu

By Matt Swartz | January 10, 2018 at 6:38pm CDT

Before Marcell Ozuna reports for his first Spring Training as a Cardinal, he will have to start the potentially uncomfortable process of salary arbitration with them. Ozuna has quite a resume to boast, which is part of what made him so attractive to the Cardinals in the first place. He hit .312 with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs last year, giving him few comparables among second-time arbitration-eligible players.

My model projects a substantial raise for him of $7.4MM — all the way to a $10.9MM salary. This may be high, given the lack of exact historical comparables and the potential for an arbitration process to discount some of the home runs hit in a very high league home run environment (2017 set a record). That said, it still suggests that Ozuna is going to get a large raise anyway.

Jose Abreu had a comparable season, and his projection is accordingly similar. He hit .304 with 33 homers and 102 RBIs, making the primary difference in their cases the lower RBI total for Abreu. The White Sox slugger is projected for a $7.1MM raise instead of Ozuna’s $7.4MM, but he starts from a higher base salary and is therefore projected to land at $17.9MM.

No other players in the past five years have entered arbitration with the elusive .300/30/100 slash line. However, several players did so in the prior five years, including Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 (.321/32/105), Josh Hamilton in 2011 (.359/32/100), Matt Holliday in 2008 (.340/36/137) and Miguel Cabrera in 2008 (.320/34/119). Those players got raises between $5.65MM (Ellsbury) and $3.9MM (Cabrera), although both Hamilton and Holliday got raises above $5MM, thus making Cabrera the exception.

It seems quite likely that Ellsbury, with 39 stolen bases to Ozuna’s one stolen base, would have a better case. However, the fact that Ellsbury’s case is six years old could put them closer together and could even put Ozuna and Abreu ahead. One thing that is important to note is that only Ellsbury got a one-year deal. The other raises mentioned above are part of multi-year deals, which are usually not very applicable in arbitration cases (although they could be in this scenario with few comparables).

If we look for a player more recent, we might consider Manny Machado last year at .294/37/96. He got a $6.5MM raise and clearly looks like a relevant player. The home run environment difference in just one year is pretty limited as well.

The record raise for a second-time eligible hitter belongs to Chris Davis, who got a $7.05MM raise after his .286/53/138 campaign in 2014. That would probably compare favorably to Ozuna’s numbers because of the home run difference, but the four years’ lag could render that number stale and push Ozuna and Abreu above him after all, as the model predicts. However, I think it may serve as a ceiling, leaving Ozuna and Abreu south of theor projections and slightly south of Davis.

Charlie Blackmon hit .324/29/104 last season, but did so in Coors Field, so he might be seen as less impressive than Ozuna and Abreu. His $3.8MM raise is probably a floor, and perhaps not that close of one.

I think it may be more likely that Ozuna and Abreu both get raises somewhere around $6MM. The triad of players with .300/30/100 slash lines and raises over $5MM back in 2008-12 are probably floors, whereas Davis’ raise seems like a ceiling. If that proves true, Ozuna might end up around $10MM instead of closer to $11MM, and Abreu might end up closer to $17MM than $18MM.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extension Records: Mid-Arbitration

By Jeff Todd | January 9, 2018 at 12:30pm CDT

With extension season upon us, we are looking at some of the current record-holding contracts. Last week, we broke down the most notable extensions for pre-arbitration players. Now, we’ll turn to those players who reached agreements at a point at which they were eligible for arbitration but before they were within their final season before free agency.

(So, we’ll include Super Two-eligible players in this post. But we won’t yet be looking at those 5+ service-class players who signed as the open market beckoned.)

Typically, a fair number of significant players sign long-term pacts in the period between the start of a new year and the start of a new season. This time last year, we were within a week or so of learning of mid-arb deals for players including Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, and Kole Calhoun. Many of this season’s arbitration-eligible players also feature as plausible candidates.

Of course, the need to hammer out an arbitration salary for the coming campaign often helps spur talks. This time around, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports, it seems that all of MLB’s teams will be utilizing a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration, which could further incentivize multi-year deals — though not necessarily ones that buy out would-be free agent seasons.

On to the most notable deals from the Super Two, 3+, and 4+ service groups …

Biggest Contract, Super Two

Buster Posey, Giants: 8 years, $159MM (plus one option)

This particular contract stands out from the crowd quite a bit. It dwarfs the other large Super Two deal, such as those agreed to by Starlin Castro ($60MM), Jay Bruce ($51MM), and (most recently) Kevin Kiermaier ($53.5MM). Indeed, it tops anything agreed to by players in their 3+ service class as well (see below). And the Posey deal also represents the second-largest deal of any kind ever agreed to by a catcher. There’s a reason for all that, of course: Posey was and is a once-in-a-generation talent at his position. His suitably monstrous deal, then, functions as a notable market marker for any truly elite players engaging in contract talks early in their arbitration eligibility.

Biggest Contract, Super Two Pitcher

Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 5 years, $42MM (plus two options)

As we saw with the pre-arb extensions, there’s a big gap between what top position players have been able to command and what’s available for pitchers. Teams just have not been willing to promise that much money through arbitration eligibility, even if it means picking up affordable future control. The other top contract in this service class is Jaime Garcia, at a $27.5MM guarantee. Still, as the Nats’ experience with Gonzalez shows, there’s quite some upside to be found even when a team does plunk down a relatively significant promise; he has delivered excellent value over the deal and has had both his options exercised.

Biggest Contract, 3+ Service Class

Freddie Freeman, Braves: 8 years, $135MM

While Freeman couldn’t top Posey, this was still a notable contract. The first baseman was certainly an accomplished hitter, but wasn’t a tremendous power source and was considered limited to first base. Of course, the Atlanta organization was right to trust in Freeman, as he has turned in a 157 OPS+ in each of the past two seasons while showing 30+ home run pop (as well as the ability to play third in a pinch, though we’ve likely seen the end of that experiment). This deal topped the second extension of Ryan Braun ($105MM) as well as large contracts agreed upon with 3+ service class players Kyle Seager ($100MM), Albert Pujols ($100MM back in 2004) Wil Myers ($83MM), and Justin Morneau ($80MM).

Biggest Contract, 3+ Service Class Pitcher

Carlos Martinez, Cardinals: 5 years, $51MM (plus two options)

It seems fair to say that Martinez had established a similar level of productivity as had Freeman to the same points in their career. But his own record-setting deal came in way shy despite the fact that he was only entering his age-25 season. Still, Martinez handily out-earned prior pitchers from this service grouping, such as Ervin Santana (link), Scott Kazmir (link), and Johnny Cueto (link).

Biggest Contract, 4+ Service Class

Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325MM (plus opt-out)

The Stanton deal remains the biggest and longest contract yet agreed to by a MLB player, so it more or less sets all the records. The 4+ stage is a popular time to lock up established superstars, but it typically takes a hefty sum to get it done. Ten-year commitments have gone to Joey Votto ($225MM) and Troy Tulowitzki ($157.75MM). Other nine-figure guarantees include the first Miguel Cabrera extension ($152.3MM), the ill-fated Ryan Howard pact ($125MM), and the roller-coaster Elvis Andrus deal ($120MM). Evan Longoria’s $100MM second extension was just traded, with the Rays taking a bit of a haircut but also receiving some talent in return.

Biggest Contract, 4+ Service Class Pitcher

Justin Verlander, Tigers: 5 years, $80MM

Verlander and Felix Hernandez ($78MM) set the bar for mid-arbitration pitchers. The highly accomplished duo performed well enough in the early going under these contracts that each ultimately inked similar, yet more significant extensions. Both have had their stumbles since their newer contracts kicked in, though the former has mostly been in excellent form of late and the latter is at least still fairly youthful (he’ll turn 32 at the beginning of the 2018 season, whereas Verlander is soon to hit his 35th birthday). The only other player in shouting distance is Matt Harrison, whose $55MM deal did not pan out due to a serious back injury. A variety of other 4+ pitchers have inked deals within $5MM or so of a $40MM guarantee, including Dan Haren (link), Josh Johnson (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Chad Billingsley (link). As the names listed here would indicate, it has been quite a while since we’ve seen a significant contract for a 4+ hurler.

Biggest Contract, Mid-Arb Reliever

Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 4 years, $42MM (plus one option)

Kimbrel has long been a super-elite reliever. Indeed, his raw numbers were so impressive that they busted MLBTR’s arbitration model. With some real questions as to just how much Kimbrel might earn in arbitration, the sides agreed to an interesting contract that was utterly without precedent. To that point the biggest reliever extensions of any kind were in the $20MM range (Huston Street (link) and Carlos Marmol (link)). Nothing has approached Kimbrel’s extension since, though ensuing growth in the free agent market for top-end relievers has certainly changed the situation. Indeed, this contract has been traded twice for good value, showing that the Braves did well for taking a risk that no other organization really had before. (Things worked out well for Kimbrel, too: he weathered some relatively lesser seasons without worrying about security and is now poised to hit free agency at 30 years of age, where he might still set new records.)

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