MLBTR Originals

Another decade just concluded, which makes this an opportune time to review baseball’s best players at each position over the prior 10 years. This is certainly a debatable topic, and it’s just one person’s opinion, so feel free to make any disagreements known in the comments section below…

Catcher: Buster Posey, Giants

• Father Time has seemingly caught up with Posey in recent seasons, but it doesn’t diminish the 32-year-old’s overall excellence. From 2010-19, he was an instrumental member of three World Series-winning Giants teams, an NL MVP winner and a six-time All-Star. Posey slashed .302/.371/.458 with 140 home runs and 53.0 fWAR during that span, potentially putting himself on a Hall of Fame course.

First base: Joey Votto, Reds

• Votto – now 36 and in the twilight of his career – should go down as one of the greatest and most intelligent hitters in the history of the game. He ran roughshod over pitchers throughout the prior decade, batting .306/.428/.516 with 231 homers and 48.0 fWAR, and joined Posey in earning six All-Star nods and an NL MVP.

Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros

• Hey, another six-time All-Star and a former MVP. But unlike Posey and Votto, who have faded of late, Altuve’s still a high-end performer. The diminutive 29-year-old’s fresh off his sixth straight outstanding season after beginning his career as a fairly non-threatening hitter. Between 2014-19, Altuve hit .327/.380/.497 with 114 dingers and helped his team to a championship. He ranked fourth in the majors in fWAR (32.4) and fifth in stolen bases (179) during that span.

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Indians

• Mr. Smile has been the focus of significant trade speculation over the past couple months, which tends to happen when you’re an elite player who seems unwilling to sign an extension with a small-market club. Regardless of where Lindor plays in the future, there’s no denying the four-time All-Star has an incredible past. Lindor, 26, has posted a .288/.347/.493 line with 130 homers, 93 steals and 27.2 fWAR since he debuted in 2015.

Third base: Josh Donaldson, Free Agent

• Fresh off a tremendous several years, the 34-year-old Donaldson’s now the No. 1 free agent on the market. Donaldson rose to prominence as a member of the Athletics in 2014 and has since played for three other teams (the Blue Jays, Indians and Braves). Between his breakout campaign and last season, the Bringer of Rain finished third among position players in fWAR (33.3), hit .272/.374/.524 with 185 homers, picked up three All-Star bids and took home an AL MVP.

Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels; Mookie Betts, Red Sox; Andrew McCutchen, Phillies

• Was there any doubt Trout would make this list? He’s a three-time MVP at the age of 28, easily the best player of last decade and someone who could quit right now and go down as one of the preeminent players the sport has ever seen. The rest of the outfield’s more debatable, but Betts and McCutchen made strong cases over the past few years. They’re each ex-MVPs who have been among a handful of elite performers for about half a decade. Most of McCutchen’s success came as a member of the Pirates, but he has become more of a complementary player with the Giants, Yankees and Phillies over the past couple seasons.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Retired

• You’re well within your rights to want, say, the ageless Nelson Cruz here, but I’ll take the now-retired Ortiz – one of the most feared hitters and one of its premier big-game hitters throughout his career. From 2010 until his retirement in 2016, Big Papi was a five-time All-Star, a two-time champion and a one-time World Series MVP. Ortiz slashed .292/.383/.562 and swatted 224 HRs in that span before saying goodbye to the game. Even in his final season, his age-40-campaign, Ortiz was a force at the plate.

We’ve glanced in at a few areas of the player market to see what’s left after a busy first few months of the offseason. With a New Year’s freeze in effect on the news cycle, let’s do the same for the center field market.

The lack of supply sufficient to meet the demand up the middle has been evident from the time the 2019 season drew to a close. It’s still a notable factor as the calendar flips. If Shogo Akiyama and the Reds formalize their reported agreement, he’ll follow Brett Gardner off of the market and we’ll be fresh out of remaining top-50 free agents with significant experience up the middle.

We still haven’t seen especially robust chatter surrounding Starling Marte of the Pirates, perhaps in part due to the fact that the organization made a late front office change. But with two reasonably priced but not cheap seasons of control remaining, and the Bucs facing a very tough path to contention in 2020, the time feels ripe for a trade.

You’ll have a tough time finding an alternative with Marte’s ability. But there are a few creative options for teams that really want to install major piece — and are willing to pay through the nose. Whit Merrifield of the Royals and Mitch Haniger of the Mariners have seen some action up the middle, though their primary positions are elsewhere. Both figure to come with very lofty price tags, if they’re available at all.

The Red Sox remain an interesting source of center field options. With the club looking to dip under the luxury tax line, and new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom bringing a fresh look at the entire organization, it’s conceivable that the team would discuss any player — including superstar Mookie Betts and first-year arb-eligible Andrew Benintendi. Both players have appeared primarily in the corners but are surely capable of lining up in center. They’ll also be quite difficult to pry loose.

Much more achievable is incumbent Boston center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. He’s arguably the top rental trade candidate; with a projected $11MM arb price tag, it shouldn’t take much of a return to get him. That price point may lead some interested clubs to free agency. Kevin Pillar, non-tendered by the Giants, should be available for less. While his overall defensive value has faded a bit, and his power overshadows long-standing on-base trouble, he’s about as valuable a hitter as Bradley has been in recent years.

Other, yet more expensive trade candidates include A.J. Pollock and Dexter Fowler. Both are playing on long-term contracts with multiple years remaining. Teams won’t be interested in taking over the full obligations, but that doesn’t make deals unimaginable. Both are still capable players. The former comes with greater injury risk and a bigger overall commitment. The latter hasn’t spent much time up the middle in recent years and has lagged at the plate. Pricier still is Lorenzo Cain. He’s still an elite defender but had a rough offensive season in 2019. It seems the Brewers are at least willing to consider trade scenarios, though there hasn’t been any evident traction.

There are some younger, lower-salaried conceivable trade targets. But they generally still have places on their current teams. That could change as the market resolves. It’s not impossible to imagine deals involving Kevin Kiermaier (Rays), Ender Inciarte (Braves), Manuel Margot (Padres), Albert Almora (Cubs), Mallex Smith (Mariners), or Michael A. Taylor (Nationals). But their respective teams will have to have alternative plans lined up before making moves, if they have any such intentions at all. Of those players, the glove-first Kiermaier and Inciarte are the most established. Both are under control for some time on affordable but increasingly expensive extensions. They’re each also looking to rebound from injury plagued seasons. Also of note: the Akiyama deal could free the Reds to trade Nick Senzel, though perhaps other teams would consider moving him back into the infield.

It’s awfully tough to see any remaining players on the open market as even semi-regular players on a contender. Free agent Cameron Maybin is perhaps the top option after a resurgent campaign with the bat. His deeper recent track record at the plate isn’t as promising and he’s probably not a plus glove up the middle at this stage of his career. Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton, Leonys Martin, Guillermo Heredia, and Juan Lagares will all be looking for bounceback opportunities in a reserve/platoon role. Some or all will likely settle for minor-league agreements. Otherwise, the market is limited to journeyman veterans like Peter Bourjos, Rajai Davis, and Carlos Gomez.

There is one other player that must be mentioned. It is unknown as yet what the Phillies plan to do with outfielder Odubel Herrera, who was suspended after a terrible domestic violence incident but remains under contract on similar terms to Inciarte. By collectively bargained rule, the Phillies cannot take further punitive measure against Herrera now that he’s reinstated. But the Philadelphia organization (and others) may not wish to put Herrera in their uniform. Teams will surely not view him solely through a baseball lens.

Ten years ago (if you can believe it), MLBTR standard-setter Ben Nicholson-Smith ran an awesome series looking back at the most notable deals of the prior decade. We have fallen short of the typically lofty BN-S mark, but didn’t want to pass up on an opportunity to round up the biggest swaps of the ensuing ten-year span with the new year upon us.

So, in this post we’ll categorize and cover the most notable aspects of the biggest trades of the past decade. If you want to re-live them in full, follow the links at each title.

Mammoth Contract Swaps

These deals are notable for their sheer scale, in terms of the volume of players and the dollars changing hands.

The August Coastal Blockbuster

Two behemoth teams. Mammoth contracts. This one set the course for the Dodgers and Red Sox for years to come. The Los Angeles organization fell short in the NL West in the year of the swap (2012) but has owned it ever since, with Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett (less so Carl Crawford) helping to set the course. While the prospects added in return didn’t amount to much, the Red Sox used the re-set to vault into a World Series crown in 2013.

And in the ensuing years? The Hollywood Dodgers have turned into a finely tuned, disciplined machine that eschews just these kinds of deals. The Red Sox tired a bit of their own analytics and went old school for a stretch, resulting in another World Series win … followed by a step back to finish off a roller-coaster decade. After Boston’s latest leadership swap, both teams’ baseball operations departments are run by former Rays executives.

Fish Off The Hook

If the Sox have put their fans through a coaster ride, the Marlins of the past decade have been one of those stomach-churning drop towers. Long, slow buildups to an expected payoff that turns out to be disappointing … if not downright unpleasant. The late-2012 deal with the Blue Jays was emblematic. As part of part of the generally craven Marlins Park scheme, the Jeffrey Loria-owned Marlins went big in free agency but turned in a complete dud. No worries. The Jays were there to bail them out.

This deal is that actually worked quite well for the Marlins in retrospect. Their MLB roster lost many of its big names — Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle (plus Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck) — but was also relieved of some onerous salary obligations. And the swap brought in a host of affordable, useful pieces. Every single player in this trade would ultimately be a big leaguer, in fact. None of the Marlins’ acquisitions (Henderson Alvarez, Anthony DeSclafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis) turned into stars, but most had productive stretches and many are still active.

Unfortunately, the Marlins never really proved capable of capitalizing on the surplus value, due in some part to ensuing trades. They immediately flipped Escobar, shipped Marisnick as part of a multi-player deal with the Astros, and sent DeSclafani out for Mat Latos. (This isn’t the last time we’ll hear from the Marlins or Latos.) The Fish also dumped Heath Bell that winter, another of the players signed the prior winter. This swap also connected to a few other memorable deals on the Toronto side. It was the precursor to the Jays’ acquisition of R.A. Dickey from the Mets later that winter (link), which cost the Toronto organization Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud. And Reyes ended up being sent out in another highly memorable deal for Troy Tulowitzki (link).

Even Bigger Fish

Fresh off a sale of the team, the Marlins auctioned off all three of their star outfielders — Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich — in the 2017-18 offseason. While this list is going to focus on individual deals for the most part, it makes sense to think about this series of swaps as parts of a whole.

Any follower of the baseball hot stove will remember the Stanton trade as much or more for its build-up than its end result. The prodigious slugger held full no-trade rights, thus launching a highly unusual process in which he met in person with multiple teams (the Cardinals and Giants) before spurning them. Stanton wanted the Dodgers, but the L.A. org had already transitioned to a new-school approach and wouldn’t give up enough in prospects and/or take on enough in salary to facilitate a deal. Sensing an opportunity, the Yankees stepped in.

Once again, the Marlins may ultimately be proven wise to have moved a big contract … though again, that primarily reflects the questionable initial decision to sign it. The Miami organization was forced to eat cash (in the form of the Starlin Castro contract and $30MM in obligations that’ll be owed if Stanton doesn’t opt out next winter) to move … a mid-prime player fresh off of a National League MVP award. It’s possible the Fish will get something out of the young players acquired, Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers, and the contract flexibility is great, but this one goes down as another head-scratcher when viewed in the broadest context. (It also connects to some other major swaps, as we’ll explore below.)

From the Yanks’ side, it remains to be seen if Stanton can get back on track and deliver what the team hoped he would. He was injured for most of 2019 after a good but not great first campaign in New York. The swap installed a big salary that has impacted the future roster-building efforts of the disciplined (but still big-spending) behemoth. The Stanton pact may have tempered the team’s already less-than-robust interest in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado last winter, but didn’t stop the organization from stepping up to get the star it really wanted — Gerrit Cole — to kick off the new decade.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Miami club may have picked up its best pieces in the swap that sent Ozuna to the Cardinals. Young hurlers Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen have both shown early promise at the MLB level. The latter was cashed in over the trade deadline for prospect Jazz Chisholm. The third part of the return, Daniel Castano, had nice numbers last year at Double-A.

The most notable of the three swaps may end up being the Yelich disaster. This one would’ve fit in some of the other categories below, for reasons that will become obvious as you read them. Yelich has morphed from a very good hitter into an absolute monster over two seasons in Milwaukee, leading the National League in OPS with machine-like even numbers of 1.000 (2018) and 1.100 (2019). The real shame from the Marlins’ perspective is that they had the foresight to lock Yelich up to a contract that still has three affordable seasons of control remaining. The Brewers are the beneficiaries. There’s still hope that the Marlins will get some value out of the return they got for Yelich — outfielders Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison, infielder Isan Diaz, and righty Jordan Yamamoto — but the initial returns haven’t been especially promising and certainly don’t come close to the immense surplus value created by Yelich.

Young Stars

They say there’s nothing more valuable than a mid-prime, cost-controlled star. So … what does one fetch in an active trade market?

JD From A’s To Jays

Oof. This one felt strained out of the gates and just never aged well for the A’s. Josh Donaldson reached new heights upon moving to the Jays, delivering the Toronto org huge value throughout his arbitration years. On the other side? It was a volume play with a long-term upside element, but the ledger doesn’t come close to balancing on paper. Brett Lawrie fell apart in Oakland, Kendall Graveman was a solid arm but ended up hurt, and Sean Nolin didn’t contribute much. It all hinges on Franklin Barreto, who hasn’t yet caught on in the majors but has shredded Triple-A pitching and is still just 23 years of age.

Greinke Goes North

This swap, from the very beginning of the epoch under consideration, has a better vibe for all sides. The acquisition of Zack Greinke helped the Brewers to a 96-win 2011 season. While things went south for the team in the ensuing campaign, they were able to ship him out for Jean Segura at the 2012 trade deadline. On the Royals side, while it hurt to part with their staff ace, the deal helped complete the picture for the eventual World Series-winning 2015 outfit by delivering Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. (Cain has since returned to the Brewers via free agency; we’ll hear more on Odorizzi below.)

Sale For Sale

There’s nothing like an unfolding Winter Meetings drama, and that’s just what we got when the White Sox decided to blow things up in the 2016-17 offseason. Deep in talks with the Nationals on Chris Sale — can you imagine the resulting rotation?!?! — the South Siders pivoted to the Red Sox when the Boston organization put some of its most valued young players on the table. The return featured two exceptional talents — Yoan Moncada (who turned in a breakout 2019) and Michael Kopech (who’s returning from Tommy John surgery) — who could lead the White Sox to greatness. Luis Alexander Basabe also remains a notable prospect on the Chicago farm. And the White Sox also got some of the players they had targeted from the Nats, including 2019 All-Star Lucas Giolito, when those two teams immediately shifted to a trade involving Adam Eaton. It was a big price, but it was essential to the Red Sox’ 2018 World Series winner.

Deadline Strikes

The summer trade period creates pressures … and often delivers high drama.

Closing The Curse

The ultimate go-for-broke move came from the 2016 Cubs. The roster was loaded but needed a finishing piece. And one was available … from an unlikely place. The Yankees weren’t even fully out of contention when they began talking with teams about their top-shelf closer, Aroldis Chapman, who had been acquired for a song prior to the season after his offseason arrest. (A reported move to the Dodgers was reportedly scuttled by that news.) Chapman helped the Cubs to the promised land before returning to the Yanks on a record-setting deal in the ensuing winter. For their trouble, the Yanks came away with franchise centerpiece Gleyber Torres (plus other pieces). Having moved Chapman, the Yanks were then able to run up the market for fellow left-handed relief ace Andrew Miller, who was spun off for a big return one week later … to the Cubbies’ eventual World Series competitors, the Indians.

August Stunner

You know never to declare the deadline dealing over until well after the expiration. We often see deals finished at the very last moment, with word only trickling out after the buzzer sounds. But that’s typically a phenomenon of the traditional July trade deadline — now the only trade deadline. In 2017, the August non-revocable waiver trade period delivered the fireworks. Veteran ace Justin Verlander seemed destined to stay put in Detroit, but last-minute scrambling — including JV’s decision to waive his no-trade protection — resulted in a deal to the Astros. The results were magical, as Verlander has found a whole second life in Houston and helped the team to a title. The Tigers seemingly did as well as could’ve been hoped at the time, but likely won’t end up being adequately compensated. It remains to be seen what they’ll end up getting from Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, and Jake Rogers.

Dramatic Duo

What a flurry … it all began when reports emerged that the Mets were closing in on a deal to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Brewers. You’ll no doubt remember Wilmer Flores shedding tears on the field. Zack Wheeler was also reportedly in the deal, too. Then a kerfluffle involving Gomez’s medicals scuttled things. Quite an alternate history.

As it turned out, the Astros stepped in to land Gomez, which turned out to be a complete bust. The club also got Mike Fiers in the swap, but that was scant consolation given the price … a strong four-some of prospects that included current relief ace Josh Hader, starter Adrian Houser, and outfielders Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana. (At the time, the order of importance of those names was roughly the inverse.)

Meanwhile, the Mets pivoted … to some guy named Yoenis Cespedes. That swap may have delivered the Mets the 2015 pennant. It also came at what has at times seemed to be a steep price (Michael Fulmer). And it launched an ever-fascinating relationship with Cespedes, who has signed two free agent deals with the club, the latter of which was just renegotiated (with the team’s present GM and his former agent) after a bizarre injury.

Go For It

It’s always fun to see what happens when a team decides that NOW is the time to push for the prize. 

The Odorizzi (?) Trade

That’s not what it was at the time, but MLBTR’s Steve Adams has quipped that’s what it’d end up being in the end. There’s some truth in it, as Jake Odorizzi is right now the highest-performing player that was involved in the December 2012 swap between the Rays and Royals. At the time? It was all about the Kansas City organization making a shocking strike for James Shields, giving up top prospect Wil Myers to secure the services of the long-excellent starter. This deal didn’t really shake out as anyone expected. And we’re still feeling the aftershocks.

The Royals did get a lot of very good innings from Shields, who helped them reach the World Series in 2014 even as he was obviously on the wane. But he was gone by the time the club won its ring in 2015 … with Wade Davis, the quiet part of the Royals’ side of the swap, pitching like an absolute maniac from the bullpen. Davis carried a 0.97 ERA in 139 1/3 innings from 2014-15. He was ultimately dealt for slugger Jorge Soler.

Myers was up and down in Tampa Bay before he was traded away in another consequential deal — the three-team arrangement that netted the Rays Trea Turner, only to see him passed along to the Nationals for Steven Souza. Odorizzi ended up being quite a valuable contributor for the Rays before he, too, was traded … in a swap that seems to have fallen flat for the TB org. The Rays also added lefty Mike Montgomery in the original deal, then swapped him out for a few useful seasons of Erasmo Ramirez.

Opening Day Eve

While Craig Kimbrel had been talked about for months by the aggressive Braves, it came as a total surprise when he was dealt to the Padres just before the start of the 2015 season. The highly unusual timing was what really made this deal stand out. The primary purpose for Atlanta was to shed the contract of Melvin Upton Jr., even if it meant giving up the homegrown relief stud and taking on the dollars owed to fellow outfielders Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin. Kimbrel was part of a failed San Diego win-now effort. He ended up being sent along to the Red Sox in a deal that brought the Pads Manuel Margot and others … including Logan Allen, who was ultimately a piece of last summer’s three-team swap that landed the Friars a potential eventual Margot replacement in Taylor Trammell. Back to the original deal … the Braves added a solid pitching prospect who didn’t work out (Matt Wisler) and a likely inconsequential outfield prospect (Jordan Paroubeck). But they also added the 41st pick in the 2015 draft, which turned out to be still-interesting young player Austin Riley.

Snakes Pick Up Shelby After Sell By

This deal had disaster written on it from the start, but it turned out much worse than might’ve been expected. The all-in D-Backs signed Greinke and traded for Shelby Miller with visions of a glorious rotation. But the former got off to a rough start — he ultimately redeemed himself and was sent to the Astros this past summer — and the latter completely fell to pieces. The Braves, who had picked up Miller from the Cardinals for one season of Jason Heyward, made out like bandits with two strong, controllable up-the-middle players in Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte. Even if Swanson hasn’t been quite as awesome as might’ve been hoped, there was a load of surplus value here for the Braves.

Beautiful Disasters

There are a host of other memorable trades that have turned into forehead smackers. Many connect up to above-featured deals. The Padres’ win-now effort in 2015 began in earnest with the disastrous acquisition of Matt Kemp and his big contract in a deal that cost Yasmani Grandal. Another player added in that push by the Friars was Shields, fresh off his time in Kansas City. That deal went south quick, but the San Diego org somehow managed not only to offload most of the salary early in the 2016 season, but also to pick up current superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. from the White Sox. Oof.

The Pirates finally went for it by dealing for Chris Archer at the 2018 deadline. What seemed like a buy-low has turned into a total wreck, as Archer has scuffled while Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows have soared for the Rays.

The Marlins have a few more duds on their recent resume. Further driving home the dangers of early mid-season strikes, the Fish gave up Chris Paddack for a Fernando Rodney rental. They also lucked out when they were able to un-do a portion of a seven-player deal they struck with the Padres to add Andrew Cashner and Colin Rea. Miami sent the injured Rea back to San Diego and recouped pitching prospect Luis Castillo … only to send him out in the ensuing winter for Dan Straily. Castillo is now one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Miami wasn’t alone in misjudging him; they originally got him from the Giants as part of the return for journeyman Casey McGehee.

The Reds also made out like bandits when they got Eugenio Suarez from the Tigers for Alfredo Simon. Who can forget the series of deals that left Anthony Rizzo in Chicago? The Cubs got him from the Padres for Cashner, then an elite pitching prospect, after the Friars sent Mat Latos to the Reds for a four-player package that included first bagger Yonder Alonso, the aforementioned Grandal, and hurlers Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger. The Cubs got even bigger value in the 2013 deadline deal that brought in buy-low hurlers Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop from the Orioles for Steve Clevenger and a half-season of Scott Feldman.

Entering the offseason, the market for rotation upgrades was robust — arguably one of the strongest groups of free-agent starters we’d seen. Two bona fide aces — Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg — headlined a group that also featured the NL Cy Young runner-up (Hyun-Jin Ryu), one of baseball’s hardest-throwing starters (Zack Wheeler), a 30-year-old four-time All Star and three-time World Series winner (Madison Bumgarner) as well as a host of quality veteran innings eaters and midrotation options.

The result has been 14 multi-year deals for starting pitchers and nearly $1.13 billion spent on hopeful rotation upgrades. Granted, Cole himself accounts for nearly 29 percent of that sum. Combining him and Strasburg accounts for 50.4 percent of the total issued to starters on MLB deals this winter. Their presence skews those total figures a bit, but it’s nevertheless been a healthier free-agent market than we’ve seen over the past couple of years.

The accelerated pace of the market and the unexpected aggression of some teams not expected to be prime players for free agents — the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks, in particular — have left teams still seeking rotation upgrades with a dearth of options to pursue in free agency. So with all the high-end options gone, what’s left on the market?

Steady Innings

Ivan Nova has averaged 30 starts per season dating back to 2016. He had a strong finish after a brutal start to the season with the White Sox in 2019. He’s probably going to post an ERA north of 4.00 with well below-average strikeout totals, but Nova is the best bet for serviceable bulk innings remaining in free agency. Other options in this mold include Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Cashner and Jason Vargas. They’ve all been roughly 30-start-per-season arms since 2017, although both Chacin and Cashner lost starting jobs and were put into the bullpen in 2019. There’s not much excitement among this bunch, but if you’re looking for 150+ innings that won’t kill you, this isn’t a bad place to start.

Injury Bounceback Candidates

Alex Wood will turn 29 in January and, in 2017-18, posted a combined 304 innings of 3.20 ERA ball (3.43 FIP) with 8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate better than 50 percent. The lefty’s delivery has led to durability issues throughout his career, but when healthy he’s at least a midrotation arm, if not more.

Jimmy Nelson, long a top prospect with the Brewers, looked like an emerging ace in 2017 when he pitched 175 1/3 innings with a 3.49 ERA, an even more impressive 3.05 FIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 50.3 percent grounder rate. Shoulder issues wiped out most of his 2018-19 seasons, but Nelson won’t turn 31 until next June.

Let’s not forget Taijuan Walker, who’ll pitch all of next year at 27. Once one of baseball’s truly elite pitching prospects, he’s barely pitched since 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. Walker tallied 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate with the D-backs in ’17. He’s had no shortage of injury troubles in his career, but Walker offers as much upside as any still-unsigned player on the market.

Meanwhile, Danny Salazar has pitched in only one game (four innings) in the past two seasons but will pitch next year at 30 and has averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in his MLB career. Tyson Ross has completed just one healthy season in his past four but was an All-Star caliber pitcher back in 2014-15. Aaron Sanchez could technically slot into this bucket as well, but it’s still not fully clear when in 2020 he’ll be ready to pitch after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the season.

Veterans with a Bit of Upside

As improbable as it’d have sounded 12 months ago, Homer Bailey is probably among the more intriguing low-cost arms on the market. The 33-year-old never lived up to his $105MM contract in Cincinnati, but in 2019 he posted slightly below-average strikeout rates, better-than-average walk rates and solid ground-ball tendencies. Bailey’s 10.8 percent swinging-strike rate in 2019 was the second-best of his career.

Drew Smyly quietly turned in a solid showing with the Phillies down the stretch, and posted a huge 12.2 percent swinging-strike rate after signing in Philadelphia. His teammate, Jerad Eickhoff, is “only” 29 but hasn’t had a strong showing since the 2016 campaign.

Veteran Reclamation Projects

Several pitchers on the market carry name value but minimal results in recent years. Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey, Marco Estrada, Wei-Yin Chen, Clayton Richard, Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill are all free agents, but no one from that group has been particularly healthy or effective over the past few seasons (although Buchholz’s injury-shortened 2018 season in Arizona was undeniably impressive). Shelby Miller is younger than anyone in that group, but his struggles over the past several seasons are well-documented at this point.

And on the Trade Market?

Everyone knows that Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd is available for the right asking price, but the Tigers have a lofty asking price on his final three seasons of club control. The Diamondbacks could make Robbie Ray, a free agent next offseason, available now that the free-agent market is largely devoid of options.

Less clear is whether the likes of Jon Gray or Chris Archer are available. Both possess the type of high-end stuff that will appeal to other clubs, but the Rockies and especially the Pirates could be selling low if they made a move this winter. Colorado also hopes to contend in 2020, though that seems rather unlikely with the Dodgers and D-backs ahead of them in the NL West and so many strong clubs vying for two Wild Card spots.

The Marlins have a bevy of young pitchers, and Caleb Smith’s name has persistently been kicked about the trade circuit over the past several months. Miami trading him is hardly a surefire thing, but one can imagine that for the right combination of prospects and controllable big leaguers, the Marlins would consider it.

Could some veterans be on the move? The Red Sox have been trying to find a way to move a portion of the remaining $96MM on David Price’s contract. The Cubs, also operating under an ownership change of course that has placed substantial payroll constraints on the front office, could mull a trade involving Jose Quintana as a means of opening some payroll space.

Mike Clevinger’s recent emergence on the rumor mill immediately made him one of the most popular targets among fans, but it’d be a rather significant surprise if the Indians dealt him away — recent trade of Corey Kluber notwithstanding.

Who’s Still Looking?

The Angels and Twins, two of the teams viewed as most in need of pitching help heading into the winter, haven’t yet made an impact move. The Minnesota org brought back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda but still hasn’t improved its rotation over 2019. The Angels have acquired Dylan Bundy and signed Julio Teheran, but the big-name starter for which fans pined never materialized. Likewise, the Padres never found the top-of-the-rotation arm they’ve been seeking for awhile now.

The Dodgers were connected to the big fish, as they are every offseason, but once again opted against a substantial commitment to an open-market player. The Brewers have taken flak for their lack of starting pitching but continue to prioritize lower-scale value plays and depth over higher-priced options. That could put them in play for some of the upside candidates mentioned above, but it’s worth noting that they moved on from Jimmy Nelson already. The Astros have Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and a returning Lance McCullers Jr. (Tommy Johns surgery), but they have limited certainty beyond that group. The defending-champion Nationals are among the clubs looking for fifth-starter candidates.