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Which Starters Should The Cardinals Extend?

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The mass exodus facing the Cardinals rotation at the end of the 2023 season is well-documented at this point. Longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright is set to follow in the footsteps of his longtime battery-mate Yadier Molina and retire following the end of the 2023 season, while each of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery are set to depart the club as free agents. If none of that group is extended, right-hander Dakota Hudson will be the only pitcher to make more than ten starts with the Cardinals in 2022 and remain with the club in 2024, though lefty Steven Matz is also under contract through the 2025 season and youngster Andre Pallante impressed in ten starts last season.

The 2023-2024 free agent class figures to be exceptional deep in quality rotation options, even for clubs who won’t be part of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Still, it seems reasonable to expect extensions, such as the one Yu Darvish signed with the Padres last week, to continue thinning the herd throughout Spring Training and into the regular season. For a Cardinals club that’s attempting to make the most of the remaining prime years for superstars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, going into the offseason with three or more slots in the rotation to fill would put an enormous amount of pressure on the front office. As such, it’s no wonder that the organization is reportedly planning to have extension conversations with at least two of their starting pitchers this spring.

The clearest choice for the Cardinals to pursue an extension with would be Mikolas, who reportedly is open to extending with the club this spring. Even entering his age-34 season, there’s every reason to expect Mikolas to be durable going forward; though he missed the entirety of the 2020 season and much of the 2021 season due to surgery, since joining the Cardinals ahead of the 2018 season he has pitched more than 180 innings in each of his three seasons unaffected by that surgery, including inning counts over 200 innings in 2018 and 2022. On top of that, Mikolas has proven to be an effective mid-rotation option whenever he is on the mound, with a 3.46 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.84 FIP in 631 2/3 innings as a member of the Cardinals.

Furthermore, despite his age and workhorse tendencies, the mileage on his arm is still fairly low: Mikolas has just 1,561 professional innings under his belt between the majors, minors, and his time overseas. That’s more than a thousand innings less than similarly aged hurlers such as Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw, and just a tad under the 1,746 1/3 professional innings Aaron Nola has under his belt headed into his age-30 season. Given Mikolas’s combination of effectiveness, durability, low mileage on his arm, and comfort with the club (he already extended with the team once, ahead of the 2019 season), it’s no wonder that Mikolas appears to be one of the starters the Cardinals are seeking to continue their partnership with.

What of the other options, though? Surely, if Wainwright changes his mind and decides to continue pitching in 2024, the lifelong Cardinal would be continuing his career in St. Louis. All signs point to him hanging them up this fall after the conclusion of his age-41 season, however, leaving two pending free agents in the Cardinals rotation for them to consider extending: Flaherty and Montgomery. Flaherty is the younger of the two, set to pitch in 2023 at age 27 while Montgomery celebrated his 30th birthday earlier this offseason. Both players have dealt with injury woes in their careers, though Flaherty’s are more recent, having spanned the 2020-2022 seasons. Montgomery’s struggles from 2018-2020, by contrast, have since been followed up by a pair of quality, healthy seasons.

Montgomery has also shown more consistency throughout his career; when healthy, he has reliably been good for around 150 innings of 10-15% better than league average baseball. Flaherty, on the other hand, has two exceptional seasons under his belt in 2018 and 2019 where he combined for a 3.01 ERA, 35% better than league average, while finishing top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 and Cy Young award voting in 2019. Outside of those two seasons, however, he has just 176 career innings at the major league level under his belt, and the results of those innings leave much to be desired: a 4.19 ERA and more than a strikeout less per nine innings than his peak years.

One can rightfully argue that Flaherty, so long as he can get healthy, projects to be better than Montgomery going forward. Montgomery’s fastball velocity in 2022 clocked in just below that of Flaherty despite the fact that Montgomery was enjoying a career high while Flaherty’s velocity was at an all-time low. Flaherty’s camp will surely make that argument, and with such a considerable gap between Flaherty’s potential and his current results, it’s fair to wonder how feasible it is for the two sides to come together on an extension they both find mutually agreeable, particularly when a big season from Flaherty in 2023 could cement him among the top starters on next offseason’s free agent market. Flaherty seems, perhaps, particularly unlikely to take much of a discount given he forced St. Louis to renew his contract ahead of both the 2019 and 2020 seasons rather than agree to a pre-arbitration salary, calling it a matter of “principle.”

The Cardinals have no such contentious history of negotiations with Montgomery, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season in a deal that sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees. Montgomery pitched extremely well down the stretch for St. Louis last season, racking up 63 2/3 innings that were good for a 3.11 ERA (123 ERA+) and a 3.08 FIP. While Montgomery’s potential is far from that of Flaherty, that dominant stretch to end the 2022 season could indicate that there is still upside yet to be tapped into for the left-hander. Furthermore, despite not being a member of the organization for very long, that hasn’t stopped this Cardinals front office in the past. After all, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is the one who signed Goldschmidt to an extension prior to the 2019 season before the slugger had ever played a regular season game in a Cardinals uniform.

Financially speaking, the Cardinals have plenty of room to maneuver under the luxury tax going forward. The club’s estimated luxury tax payroll for 2024 according to Roster Resource is just over $106MM, down from $199MM in 2023. Granted, that 2024 figure does not include arbitration salaries for 2024. In 2023, arbitration salaries are adding $36.5MM to the luxury tax ledger in St. Louis- even if that figure repeats, the club would have nearly $60MM to play with before reaching their 2023 payroll level, and over $90MM before reaching the first luxury tax threshold. That should leave them Mozeliak’s front office plenty of room to add or extend starters ahead of the 2024 season.

For players between five and six years of service time, as Flaherty and Montgomery both are, three recent extensions have taken place: the seven-year, $131MM deal Jose Berrios signed with the Blue Jays last offseason, the five-year, $100MM deal Joe Musgrove signed with the Padres last summer, and the five-year, $85MM deal Lance McCullers Jr. signed with the Astros ahead of the 2021 season. Berrios stands as something of a clear outlier among the other two, while Joe Musgrove has been a more effective starter than Montgomery and a more consistent starter than Flaherty. As such, McCullers seems to be the most appropriate comp for our purposes.

McCullers and Montgomery both are solid mid-rotation starters when healthy, and though McCullers was just about to begin his age-27 season when he signed his extension, making him three years younger than Montgomery is now, he was coming off far more recent injury troubles than Montgomery was while having never pitched even 130 innings in a season of his career. The $85MM figure also compares reasonably to the mid-rotation market this past offseason, which each of Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker securing between $63MM and $72MM and Montgomery having an argument as a safer bet than any of them.

Flaherty, on the other hand, seems less likely to find that sort of deal appropriate. Following an offseason that saw the likes of Carlos Rodon and Jacob deGrom secure well over $100MM despite injury concerns, it’s reasonable to think that Flaherty could do the same with relative ease should he have a bounceback year in 2023, particularly given his youth. Additionally, the market was rather kind to even oft-injured bounceback types such as Andrew Heaney this offseason. Even if Flaherty struggles again in 2023, he could search for a two-year deal with an opt-out as Heaney did to rebuild his value and hit the market a second time before his age-30 season.

Given all of this, it seems unlikely he would settle for much less than the $100MM Musgrove received, and it seems even more unlikely the Cardinals would make such a risky investment at this point, even with their significant concerns about the future of their rotation. Taken together, it seems that if the Cardinals are going to look to lock up some of the members of their rotation before season’s end, they’d be better off looking toward Mikolas and Montgomery than Flaherty, even despite all the tantalizing talent he brings to the table.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Cardinals Re-Sign Adam Wainwright

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Oct. 27: Dave Skretta of the Associated Press has the contract details. Wainwright will earn a base of $17.5MM, same as in 2022, but $10MM of that will be deferred. That deferred money will be paid out at a rate of $1MM per year from 2024 to 2033. He can also earn some extra cash via bonuses, getting $500K if he reaches 28 starts and another $500K at 30 starts. There’s another $500K if he finishes in the top 10 in Cy Young voting and then $50K bonuses for making the All-Star team, winning LCS MVP, World Series MVP or a Gold Glove award, and a $25K bonus for a Silver Slugger award. He will also have full no-trade protection.

Oct. 26: Adam Wainwright is continuing his career, as the Cardinals announced this afternoon that he’ll be back for a 19th season with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first reported Wainwright was in agreement on a one-year contract extension. Financial terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed. Wainwright is an Aegis Sports Management client.

Wainwright’s return puts to rest any questions whether he might join a pair of Cardinals icons in hanging up their spikes. Longtime battery mate Yadier Molina and Cardinals legend Albert Pujols each announced before this past season that 2022 would be their final playing years. There had been plenty of speculation the 41-year-old Wainwright would call it quits, too. Instead, he’ll be back on the Busch Stadium mound.

The right-hander pitched to a 3.71 ERA across 191 2/3 innings for the Cardinals this season. It was yet another reliable season for the veteran, who made 32 starts for the second-straight season. His results did dip a little from 2021, when he posted a 3.05 ERA and finished seventh in NL Cy Young voting. However, that year was helped out somewhat by a .256 opponents BABIP, and his FIP came in at exactly 3.66 in both 2021 and 2022. He did experience a dip in velocity on his fastball from 89.3 mph to 88.1 mph, though, and his strikeout percentage fell to 17.8%, down from 21% in 2021.

Of course, Wainwright has never thrived on a power arsenal. He’s succeeded into his 40’s thanks to excellent control and a knack for keeping hitters off balance with his trademark curveball. This year’s 6.7% walk rate wasn’t far off the prior season’s 6% mark. Wainwright also led all qualified starters in called-strike percentage, compensating for a lack of whiffs by freezing opponents by mixing his pitches inside the strike zone.

Wainwright’s re-signing solidifies the team’s rotation heading into the off-season. Miles Mikolas is signed through 2023, while mid-season trade acquisition Jordan Montgomery is arbitration-eligible for the final time, and both figure to be rotation mainstays. The backend of the rotation still has some question marks, though. Injuries contributed to Steven Matz struggling in his first season in St Louis, but he’s under contract for three more seasons and should at least have an opportunity to start the season in the rotation. Jack Flaherty is under control via arbitration for one more year, and while he’s also had injury problems for a while now, he figures to have a shot in the rotation if healthy.

With the uncertainty surrounding Matz and Flaherty and the potential free agent departure of Jose Quintana, St. Louis could look into fortifying by adding another rotation arm at the back end. The bigger priority, however, seems to be on the position player side. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters this morning the club would look externally for catching help to replace Molina. The team is also hopeful of their chances of retaining star third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’ll have to decide whether to opt out of the final five years and $144MM remaining on his deal.

It’s presently unknown how much Wainwright will make next season, although he’s coming off a one-year, $17.5MM salary. Mozeliak suggested the team planned to raise its payroll from this year’s approximate $155MM Opening Day mark.

On a more personal note, Wainwright’s return means he’s likely  to reach the 200-win milestone for his career. Owner of 195 career wins, he’ll have a chance to surpass Jesse Haines’ 210 wins for second on the Cardinals all-time leaderboard.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Adam Wainwright Planning To Retire After 2023 Season

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright spoke with the media today, including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, on the heels of the announcement that he and the club had agreed to a contract for 2023. In discussing the deal, Wainwright admitted that 2023 will be his final season.

“I could tell you yes, but then there’s a whole lot of hoopla you’ve gotta go through,” Wainwright said in response to a question about whether this would be his final run. “Long story short: yes, this’ll be the last one. Just everybody relax, don’t freak out about it.”

Prior to 2022, fellow Cardinal legends Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols announced that they were entering their final respective seasons. There was plenty of speculation that Wainwright might eventually decide to ride into the sunset with them, but he has instead decided to mount up for another campaign, which will evidently be his last. Wainwright turned 41 years old in August and will therefore be set to retire shortly after his 42nd birthday.

Wainwright is currently sitting on 195 career wins and will certainly crack the 200 plateau as long as he’s able to stay healthy. He is setting his sights higher than that, however. “The number I’m looking at is not 200, the number is 210,” Wainwright said, per Jones. Getting to 210 would allow Wainwright to tie Jesse Haines for second place on the all-time Cardinals list, behind only Bob Gibson’s 251. Wainwright also added that he would like to catch John Smoltz, who logged 213 career victories.

Regardless of how the 2023 campaign ultimately goes, Wainwright will finish with a fine career résumé. Making his debut back in 2005, he’s already appeared in 457 games, starting 390 of those and logging 2,567 1/3 innings. He has a career ERA of 3.38 over that time while notching 2,147 strikeouts. He’s made three All-Star teams, won a couple of Gold Gloves and was a World Series champion in 2006 and 2011 (though he missed the entirety of the latter championship season due to Tommy John surgery). That’s already a tremendous career, though he will have one more season to try to add to his personal accomplishments and grab one last World Series ring before hanging up his spikes.

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Jackson, Zuber

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Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright had a 3.09 ERA through the end of August this year but then posted a 7.22 mark over the final few weeks of the season. Given that he turned 41 years old in between those two samples, some might have wondered if the veteran had merely run out of gas.

However, that wasn’t actually the case, at least according to the man himself. Wainwright logged into Twitter yesterday, acknowledging that he didn’t perform up to his own standards down the stretch and attempting to offer an explanation. The way he tells it, he was hit on the knee by a comebacker in his August 28 start against Atlanta. This affected the length of his stride, which he didn’t notice for some time, leading to domino effects in his delivery. He believes that the issues were eventually fixed but that the season ended before he got a chance to get back into proper form.

Despite the poor finish, Wainwright still posted a 3.71 ERA in 2022, making 32 starts and throwing 191 2/3 innings. Given that his Cardinal teammates Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols already announced their intention to retire after this year, many have wondered if Wainwright would join them in heading into the sunset. But he’s shown he can still be effective at the big league level and could surely get another shot in 2023 if he wants one. If he has made a decision in that regard, he hasn’t yet gone public with it.

Wainwright made his MLB debut with the Cards in 2005 and has been with them his entire big league career. In 2013, he and the club signed a five-year extension that went through the 2018 campaign. Since then, he and the team have effectively gone year to year, signing one-year deals for the past four seasons. He made $17.5MM this year on the heels of an excellent 2021 campaign that he didn’t quite match. He might have to settle for a slight pay cut to return next year, though he and the club have always been able to work out deals that work for both sides.

Jose Quintana is also heading for free agency, leaving the Cards with an on-paper rotation of Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Jordan Montgomery and Dakota Hudson. Matz and Flaherty both had injury-plagued seasons and Hudson struggled enough that he got optioned to the minors down the stretch. Given those question marks, reuniting for another spin with Wainwright would make sense for the team, as long as that’s something he wants.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • Braves right-hander Luke Jackson has missed this entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. He seems to be on track for a return at some point next year, as the hurler himself took to Twitter to announce that he has started throwing. Now 31, Jackson had a tremendous breakout season in 2021. He threw 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, much better than his 4.24 career mark. There might have been a bit of good luck in there, as opponents hit just .253 on balls in play against Jackson after posting marks at .311 or above in each of the previous five seasons. Nonetheless, he did post strong ground ball and strikeout rates of 52.5% and 26.8%, respectively, alongside a high walk rate of 11.1%. This was his final year of club control, meaning he’ll be heading into the open market in a few weeks. Given his ongoing recovery, he will likely have to hold a showcase for teams at some point in order to showcase his readiness for 2023.
  • Royals righty Tyler Zuber missed the entirety of the 2022 season, landing on the IL in March due to a shoulder impingement and never returning. He appears to be healthy again after tweeting video of himself throwing yesterday. The 27-year-old has yet to find success at the big league level, pitching to a 5.29 ERA in 49 1/3 career innings, though he’s shown more potential in the minors. In 28 2/3 frames at Triple-A in 2021, he posted a 2.83 ERA along with a 37.1% strikeout rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. That also came with a concerning 13.8% walk rate, though he showed an ability to be effective despite that. By sitting on the 60-day IL all season, he’s earned a full year of MLB service time in 2022, though he still won’t reach arbitration eligibility this winter.

Cardinals Notes: Wainwright, Arenado, Molina, Pujols

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Following yesterday’s 0-2 loss to the Phillies, the Cardinals’ magical 2022 season has drawn to a close. After an above-average first half going 50-44, the Cardinals moved into a higher gear, winning 43 of their final 68 games (.632 win percentage) to take the NL Central with authority. Pivoting towards the 2023 season, the Cardinals have two key players with decisions to make, and two players who are expected to formally announce their retirements.

One of the most important free agents for the Cardinals is 41-year-old Adam Wainwright who didn’t appear during the Cardinal’s Wild Card series. Wainwright, a rotation stalwart for the Cardinals since 2007, signed a 1-year, $17.5MM extension for the 2022 season on the heels of a strong 2020 and 2021 season, pitching to a 3.08 ERA in 272 innings. He followed those strong numbers in 2022 with a 3.71 ERA in 191 2/3 innings, following his trademark of limiting hard contact (87.8 MPH average exit velocity, 36.6 HardHit%). However, he was hit hard over his last five starts, giving up 35 hits and 19 runs over his last 23 2/3 innings.

Wainwright has yet to officially announce whether he will return for the 2023 season, but hinted that he has decided on his status, as reported by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Regardless, Wainwright is expected to release something soon, with the veteran saying postgame that “we should know pretty soon if something happens … if not, then it’s been a good run.” The 17-year veteran added that he did not “like not pitching in a playoff season,” before coyly saying that fans could take the statement one of two ways, “as it’s been a good run” or “as a motivation to never let that happen again,” per Goold.

The Cardinals’ other high-profile free agent Nolan Arenado is technically under contract through the 2027 season; however, he can opt out this offseason. Acquired from the Rockies in February 2021, Arenado has posted back-to-back All-Star seasons with the Cardinals, slashing a combined .273/.335/.513 while playing superb defense at the hot corner (30 Outs Above Average). Arenado’s 2022 season has been particularly strong, batting .293/.358/.533 with 30 homers and 15 Outs Above Average.

Arenado has $144MM and five years remaining on his current contract, but he would be the clear-cut top third basemen on the free agent market. For his part, Arenado has previously stated that he’s “not opting out” and that he “will be coming back,” per Goold. He followed up these comments after yesterday’s game saying, “I love it here. I love the guys. I just feel like I fit well with this orgnaization.” Nevertheless, the seven-time All-Star will be 37 at the end of his current contract and may opt to find a longer agreement.

Elsewhere on the Cardinals, 19-year veteran Yadier Molina and 22-year veteran Albert Pujols are set to retire with the close of the 2022 season. Both legends in Cardinals’ lore, the duo won World Series titles with the Cardinals in 2006 and 2011, among numerous other awards throughout their careers. In a fitting moment, both players laced singles in their final at-bats at Busch Stadium.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

Cardinals Activate Adam Wainwright, Drew VerHagen

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TODAY: The Cardinals announced Wainwright’s activation, and righty Jake Woodford was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space.

MAY 14: The Cardinals announced that right-hander Drew VerHagen has been reinstated from the injured list, with lefty Packy Naughton being optioned in a corresponding move.

VerHagen was surprisingly the first player signed after the lockout ended in March, with the Cards inking him to a two-year deal with a $5.5MM guarantee. He had spent the previous two seasons in Japan and fared well enough to return to the big leagues. Unfortunately, after throwing just 4 2/3 innings over three appearances, he landed on the injured list due to a right hip impingement. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat adds that VerHagen had his return delayed by a bout with COVID. VerHagen is capable of either starting or relieving and started in his two rehab appearances but threw only 1 2/3 innings and 2 innings in them, respectively.

Manager Oliver Marmol announced today that Adam Wainwright will come off the COVID IL and start Sunday’s game, as relayed by John Denton of MLB.com,  but his last start was May 4. Since he didn’t go on a rehab assignment, it’s possible he won’t have as much length as usual due to that layoff, making a multi-inning option like VerHagen a valuable safety net. The club has a vacancy on its 40-man roster and won’t need to make a corresponding move for Waino, though he will need a slot on the active roster.

As for Naughton, this is already his second time being optioned in recent weeks. As part of the new CBA that was implemented in March, players with options can no longer be sent to the minors with total abandon. Each player can only be optioned five times per season, whereas there was no limit at all under the prior CBA. Due to the shortened Spring Training caused by the lockout, MLB and the MLBPA agreed that options prior to May 2 wouldn’t count against this limit, helping teams navigate the unusual ramp up period. The southpaw came up to make a spot start to cover for Wainwright’s absence and can now only be recalled and optioned three more times on the year.

COVID IL Notes: Wheeler, Arauz, Sosa, Wainwright

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Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, who’d been on the COVID IL since Sunday, has been cleared to rejoin the team and will start tonight’s game against the Dodgers, reports Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Enquirer. To make room for Wheeler on the active roster, the Phillies optioned left-hander Bailey Falter to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. It’s a timely return for the Phillies, who’ll avoid a crunch in rotation following a pair of rainouts and a Sunday doubleheader against the Mets last weekend. Even with Wheeler’s return, the rotation is still down a man with Zach Eflin still on the COVID list. However, the club has an off-day on Monday, meaning they can survive with four starters for a couple of turns through the rotation. After five starts this year, Wheeler’s ERA is sitting at 4.10, with a 22.5% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

Rounding up the latest virus-related transactions…

  • The Red Sox announced that they have reinstated Jonathan Arauz from the COVID-related IL. To make room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Josh Taylor has been transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Taylor has somewhat quietly become an important part of the Red Sox bullpen. Over the previous three seasons, he’s thrown 102 1/3 innings with a 3.69 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. He’s gradually earned himself some higher-leverage outings, notching 15 holds and a save last year. However, he began this year on the injured list due to back soreness. He began a rehab assignment last month, though that was paused after the issue lingered. The Red Sox evidently don’t think he’s close to a return, based on today’s transaction. Taylor will be eligible to return 60 days from his original placement on the IL, meaning he could be back in early June, though the club hasn’t provided any timetable for his next steps.
  • The Cardinals announced that Edmundo Sosa was activated from the COVID IL today. Kramer Robertson was optioned in a corresponding move. With the recent demotion of Paul DeJong, there’s an opening for Sosa to take over as the everyday shortstop in St. Louis. Last year, he broke out with a .271/.346/.389 showing for a 104 wRC+. However, he got off to a slow start this year, hitting just .160/.250/.160 in a small ten-game sample before landing on the injured list. He’ll be jockeying with Brendan Donovan, who is off to a hot start to his MLB career. Over his first 12 games in the big leagues, Donovan is hitting .278/.381/.556, 169 wRC+. Another path the team could eventually take would be to slide Tommy Edman over to shortstop and call up second base prospect Nolan Gorman, who is hitting .287/.350/.658 in Triple-A this year for a wRC+ of 157.
  • There’s one Cardinal that is still on the COVID IL, right-hander Adam Wainwright. It seems that he is back with the club and could be taking the ball for Sunday’s game, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Packy Naughton recently made a spot start to cover for Wainwright and would likely be bumped to the bullpen or optioned to the minors if Waino can indeed return this weekend. The 40-man roster currently has a vacancy, meaning a corresponding move won’t be necessary in that regard. Through six starts this year, Wainwright has a 3.18 ERA, 20% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 57.6% ground ball rate.

Cardinals Place Adam Wainwright On COVID List

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The Cardinals announced this afternoon that starter Adam Wainwright has been placed on the COVID-19 injured list. Steven Matz, who had been on bereavement leave, has been reinstated to take his spot on the active roster.

Wainwright has tested positive for the virus, reports John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter link). The veteran righty took to Twitter to announce that he feels “100% with zero symptoms.” Nevertheless, because he tested positive, he’ll have to go through the standard isolation procedure before he’s cleared to return to the team. Wainwright becomes the second Cardinal in recent days to land on the virus-related IL, joining infielder Edmundo Sosa.

Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club. It’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician).

Even in his age-40 season, Wainwright is still a highly valuable contributor for the Cards. He owns a 3.18 ERA over 34 innings, compensating for an early dip in swinging strikes by inducing plenty of ground-balls. St. Louis has an off day on Monday, the day before what would’ve been Wainwright’s next scheduled start. It’s possible they keep their other starters on regular rest and only need to fill in once for Wainwright late next week.

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