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Rafael Devers

Red Sox Extend Rafael Devers

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Jan. 11: The Red Sox have formally announced the contract as a 10-year extension with Devers, spanning the 2024-33 seasons. As reported last night, that keeps his 2023 luxury tax hit at $17.5MM (the sum of the one-year deal he agreed to in order to avoid arbitration), while the $31.35MM luxury hit on his extension will go into effect in 2024.

Jan. 4: The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers are in agreement on an extension that will keep him in Boston through the 2033 season. Though many outlets reported this as an 11-year extension worth $331MM, Devers and the Sox had already agreed to a $17.5MM salary for 2023. In terms of new money, then, he’s agreed to a ten-year, $313.5MM extension. There are no opt-outs in the deal and he won’t have a no-trade clause. The deal is pending a physical and is not yet official. Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.

Devers, 26, was set to enter his final year of club control. He was slated to reach free agency after the upcoming campaign but will now stay in Boston for an extra decade, with this agreement set to take him through the 2033 campaign and his age-36 season. It’s easily the largest deal in franchise history, which was previously held by the $217MM deal for David Price. It will also be the 10th-largest guarantee in MLB history, while the $31.35MM average annual value will get him into the top 20 all-time.

Devers will now stick with the only organization he’s ever known and could well spend his entire career in Boston. The Sox signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in August of 2013, giving him a $1.5MM bonus. He worked his way through the minors and was seen by many as one of the top prospects in the sport. Baseball America ranked him in the top 20 on their top 100 list in both 2016 and 2017. In that latter season, Devers cracked the majors and debuted while just 20 years old. Despite that young age, he hit 10 home runs in just 58 games and produced a batting line of .284/.338/.482. That led to a wRC+ of 110, indicating he was 10% better than the league average hitter.

Devers endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2018 but has put that behind him in a big way. Over the last four years, he’s hit 108 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .292/.352/.532. That production has been 32% better than league average by measure of wRC+, placing him among the top 25 hitters in the league for that time period.

For the Red Sox, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster time for the franchise over the past few years. They hoisted the World Series trophy in 2018 but then saw star right fielder Mookie Betts traded to the Dodgers alongside Price. Though the Sox got some interesting players in return, it was widely-viewed as a financially-motivated decision, a bitter pill for fans to swallow after a strong run of success that saw them win four titles from 2004 to 2018. The club slid to last place in the American League East in the shortened 2020 campaign.

Though 2021 saw the club surprise many onlookers by returning to the postseason, they had another disappointing campaign in 2022, finishing last in the division for the second time in three years. This offseason, another star player departed when shortstop Xander Bogaerts opted out of his contract. Though the Sox maintained that retaining Bogaerts was a top priority, he instead signed with the Padres for $280MM over 11 years while Boston came up well short, reportedly in the $160MM range.

With Betts and Bogaerts both leaving for California, the focus turned to Devers. With just one year until free agency, many wondered if the Fenway Faithful would have to endure a third superstar departure in a four-year span, or perhaps a three-year span if the club considered a trade. The reporting on the matter seemed dire as recently as a couple of months ago, indicating that the sides were not close in their extension talks with Boston offering something in the vicinity of $212MM. Instead, they have stepped up in a big way to ensure that Devers is the face of the franchise for years to come. In the long run, it’s possible that Devers may have to move from third base to first base, since his defense isn’t as highly regarded as his bat. But those will be conversations for later days, with another 11 years for the club to figure out how to set the lineup.

In the short term, this won’t change the makeup of the Red Sox on the field, since Devers was already going to be a part of the 2023 club. But it could have an impact on the financial ledger. Devers was previously set to have a $17.5MM count towards Boston’s luxury tax but that number will now jump to $30.09MM. The specific breakdown of the Devers deal isn’t known, but the competitive balance tax is calculated based on the average annual value of the deal, so the breakdown won’t change the CBT calculations. With that new figure in place, the club’s total CBT tally is now $224MM, according to the calculations at Roster Resource. That puts them within striking distance of the lowest luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM this year. Any further additions, whether this offseason or as the season itself progresses, could potentially push them over the line. Since they paid the tax in 2022, they would be considered a second-time payor in 2023.

Former player Carlos Baerga first reported that the sides were in agreement on Instagram, but had the terms as 11 years and $332MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the $331MM figure and added the $20MM signing bonus. Jeff Passan of ESPN clarified that the deal included 2023 and would only add ten years beyond that. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first added the absence of a no-trade clause and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first had the lack of opt-outs.

Rafael Devers Extension Goes Into Effect In 2024 For Luxury Tax Purposes

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The Red Sox agreed to a massive contract extension with Rafael Devers last week, committing to their star third baseman into the 2030’s. The deal tacked on $313.5MM in new money to buy out ten would-be free agent seasons and keep Devers in Boston for the bulk of his career.

That $313.5MM was tacked onto a $17.5MM salary to which the parties had agreed the day before to avoid an arbitration hearing for his final season of eligibility. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports (Twitter link) the deal was structured to go into effect for the 2024 campaign, a notable development for luxury tax purposes. The average annual value of a contract counts against a team’s luxury tax ledger. Devers’ deal will come with a $17.5MM tax hit for the 2023 season — reflecting the previous one-year agreement — before recalculating for the 2024-33 campaigns bought out by the extension.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports some additional specifics on the extension. Devers receives a $20MM signing bonus, followed by his established $17.5MM salary in 2023. He receives salaries of $27.5MM annually from 2024-26, $31MM per year from 2027-30 and $29MM salaries between 2031-33.

According to Speier, some of that money will be deferred. Doing so will bring the deal’s luxury tax hit for the 2024-33 campaigns to a bit above $29MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that $7.5MM in salary will be deferred each season, and the deal’s net present value is actually at $291.53MM after accounting for those deferrals. According to Heyman, the deal also contains a one-time assignment bonus worth $2.5MM in the event Devers is traded. A ten-year, $313.5MM contract without any deferrals would’ve had a luxury tax number of $31.35MM.

That’s a small benefit to the Boston organization over the long haul. The more immediate relief for the club comes in structuring the agreement so Devers’ 2023 CBT number remains at $17.5MM. That’ll keep Boston’s overall tax number around $211MM after factoring in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. They’re roughly $22MM south of the $233MM base tax threshold, leaving them a fair bit of spending room before hitting that mark.

The Red Sox have set a press conference for tomorrow at 11:00 am EST to announce the deal. Devers, chairman Tom Werner, team president Sam Kennedy, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and skipper Alex Cora will all attend.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Casas, Houck, Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox entered the offseason hopeful of re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers, locking that pair of dynamic hitters into the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. Instead, Bogaerts signed an 11-year deal with the Padres, and talks with Devers have yet to bear fruit. Devers did agree to a one-year contract with for the upcoming 2023 season yesterday, locking in his salary at $17.5MM, but he was already under club control and the newly agreed-upon pact doesn’t do much to move the needle in long-term talks.

Both Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report today that talks on a long-term deal have been “steady” in the past few weeks, though. As Cotillo points out, that wasn’t true early in the offseason. Still, the parties have been known to be facing a substantial gap. Devers has reportedly been searching for a deal north of $300MM, and given his age (26) and proximity to free agency (next offseason), that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

If anything, the current offseason’s rash of mega-deals for in-their-prime stars has likely only further hardened Devers’ stance; he doesn’t have the defensive value of players like Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or even Bogaerts, but Devers will be a younger free agent than anyone who agreed to a major contract this winter. Devers will play all of the 2024 season (his first free-agent year) at 27. Turner (30 in June), Bogaerts (already 30) and Correa (who turned 28 in September) are all older, as was Aaron Judge, who inked a nine-year, $360MM contract entering his age-31 season.

Devers, of course, is one of the American League’s best hitters — evidenced by a .292/.352/.532 slash over the past four seasons. He’s twice topped 30 home runs, including a 38-homer campaign in 2021, and was on a roughly 30-homer pace in the shortened 2020 season as well. The primary knock on Devers has been his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, which has prompted some to wonder when a move to first base might become necessary.

The Sox, however, hope to have their first baseman of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness in the form of top prospect Triston Casas. The soon-to-be 23-year-old slugger debuted with a .197/.358/.408 batting line in 95 plate appearances last year, and while the low batting average was obviously discouraging, it came in a small sample. Casas also raked at a .273/.382/.481 clip in Triple-A Worcester over a larger sample of 317 plate appearances.

Casas has come up in trade rumblings recently, thanks to a report from the Miami Herald that the Marlins have inquired about the former first-round pick and Miami-area native in talks involving the Marlins’ stock of young pitchers. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe highlights the many reasons that a trade of Casas is decidedly unlikely. As Speier notes, the team’s belief in Casas helped to temper interest in Freddie Freeman during his free agency and also contributed to the Red Sox’ decision to release Eric Hosmer.

Speier writes that the Red Sox are indeed intrigued by adding to the top half of their rotation — as most teams are — but perhaps not at the expense of Casas. The Sox appear willing to move pitchers from their big league roster, per the report, “potentially” even including right-hander Tanner Houck. To be clear, there’s no indication that Houck has been discussed extensively (or at all) with the Marlins or another club, nor is there any suggestion that the Red Sox are outright shopping the 24-year-old righty.

Still, Houck would be an interesting name for other clubs to look into, given that he’s controllable for another five seasons and has pitched to a sharp 3.02 ERA (2.95 FIP) in his first 146 MLB innings. The Sox surely value Houck and would likely only part with him in exchange for a meaningful (and controllable) upgrade elsewhere on the pitching staff or in the lineup. Dealing Houck while simultaneously looking to bring in rotation help is perhaps counterintuitive, but despite rising through the system as a starter, Houck has worked out of the bullpen more than the rotation in the Majors — including making 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022 as a reliever.

If the Sox view Houck primarily as a reliever — GM Brian O’Halloran was somewhat noncommittal on Houck’s 2023 role back in November — there’s some sense in being willing to at least listen to offers. Boston has, after all, added to its bullpen with offseason additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez but has been less active with regard to the rotation, where Corey Kluber is the lone addition to date. Again, none of this is to say Houck is readily available, but the mere possibility of the team entertaining offers is at least of some note.

Turning to a separate matter entirely, the Sox formally announced their coaching staff for the upcoming season earlier this morning. There are no surprises among the names included. Returning to manager Alex Cora’s staff will be pitching coach Dave Bush, hitting coach Peter Fatse, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coaches Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz, third base/infield coach Carlos Febles, game-planning/catching coach Jason Varitek, and field coordinator Andy Fox. As reported earlier in the offseason, Ramon Vazquez is the team’s new bench coach, while Kyle Hudson has been hired away from the Guardians as the new first base/outfield coach.

Red Sox, Rafael Devers Avoid Arbitration

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12:30pm: The Red Sox formally announced that Devers has signed a one-year deal for the 2023 season.

11:37am: The Red Sox have agreed to a one-year, $17.5MM contract with third baseman Rafael Devers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). That’ll avoid an arbitration hearing for Devers’ final season of eligibility but does not extend the team’s control over the All-Star slugger. He’ll be a free agent next offseason. Devers had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $16.9MM this coming season but will top that mark by $600K. Devers is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.

Devers, 26, has cemented himself as one of the American League’s top hitters over the past several years, hitting at a combined .292/.352/.532 clip with 108 plate appearances in 2228 homers dating back to 2019. Along the way, he’s been named to a pair of All-Star teams and won a Silver Slugger Award.

A long-term extension with Devers has been a priority for Boston’s front office for some time, but a sizable gap between the two parties has remained — and that was before Devers watched several mid-20s free agents ink contracts of 11 or more years in length this offseason. One would imagine that the revitalized trend of contracts reaching or even exceeding ten years in length has only further prompted Devers to ponder what he might be able to earn in an open-market setting.

That said, there’s still ample time for the Red Sox to close the gap in negotiations. The fact that the two parties were able to amicably agree on a one-year compromise without needing to resort to a more contentious arbitration hearing bodes well for the status of talks, to an extent. It also frees the two parties to focus negotiations solely on Devers’ would-be free agent seasons.

Long-term deals of that nature are often left to be discussed in Spring Training, but given Devers’ importance to the Red Sox and the dwindling clock, it’s certainly behoove the front office to take every moment available in order to try to work something out. Boston ostensibly waited until last spring to discuss a long-term pact with Xander Bogaerts but only made an unrealistic one-year extension offer. They broadcast confidence in their ability to ultimately retain Bogaerts up until the final day that he agreed to terms with the Padres on an 11-year, $280MM contract. Certainly, one would imagine Sox brass hopes to avoid a similar sequence with Devers, who’s four years younger than Bogaerts and thus would be positioned all the more favorably in free agency.

However extension talks play out, there’s benefit to the Red Sox in securing this cost certainty on Devers sooner than later. With Devers’ salary locked in, the Sox are now projected for an Opening Day payroll just shy of $187MM, per Roster Resource. Their projected $212.6MM luxury-tax ledger sits more than $20MM shy of the $233MM first tier of penalization. Boston quite arguably still has needs behind the plate, in the rotation and on the bench, and knowing the exact price point on Devers helps chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff gain a better picture of just how many resources are available before any concerns pertaining to the luxury tax — if they exist at all — need to be considered. Boston would be a second-time luxury offender upon exceeding the tax threshold in 2023.

Chaim Bloom Discusses Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Extensions

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Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres on the final day of the Winter Meetings, agreeing to a huge 11-year, $280MM deal.  Despite speculation that the Red Sox were coming closer to re-signing the shortstop, “that was definitely not what our impression was throughout the day and even the day before,” Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo.

The signing officially ended Bogaerts’ time with the Red Sox, a tenure that began when Bogaerts was an international signing in August 2009 and lasted through 10 Major League seasons, two World Series championship teams, and four All-Star appearances for the shortstop.  Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM contract extension with the Sox prior to the 2019 season, but chose to exercise his opt-out clause after the first three years of the extension, thus paving the way for his departure from Boston and his new home in San Diego.

Last spring, the Red Sox both signed Trevor Story to a long-term free agent deal and offered Bogaerts only a one-year extension (worth $30MM) on his contract, which were both widely interpreted as signs that the Sox weren’t counting on Bogaerts remaining beyond the date of his opt-out.  Bloom publicly said several times that the Red Sox did indeed want to retain Bogaerts, and reiterated that stance even in the aftermath of the shortstop’s deal with the Padres.

“We wouldn’t have said that if we didn’t mean it,” Bloom said. “I think it became clear to us as things went on that this [Bogaerts’ price tag] was going to go to a point that we just weren’t, irrespective of how we prioritize things, it just wasn’t something that we should do.  It’s hard because of how much we love him.  But it’s just the reality of the situation.”

In fairness to the Red Sox, nobody expected Bogaerts to receive anything near a $280MM contract, and it is understandable why the organization didn’t want to reach that far.  That said, reports suggested the Red Sox offered Bogaerts six years and around $160MM, which didn’t match the seven-year, $189MM deal MLBTR projected Bogaerts would land on the open market.  In addition, the Sox have obviously had exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts for years, and could’ve more aggressively pursued an extension at any point before Bogaerts reached free agency.

Bogaerts joins Mookie Betts and Jon Lester as homegrown Red Sox stars who left the team (Bogaerts in free agency, Betts and Lester in trades) after extension talks didn’t materialize into a longer-term deal.  Of course, as Bloom noted, Bogaerts did already ink one extension with the team, putting him “at a different place in his career.”  The Sox have signed relatively few extensions in recent years and only three extensions since Bloom took over the front office following the 2019 season.  Bloom told Cotillo that the team may change how it approaches extension candidates, perhaps with more of a focus on extending players to contracts before they reach salary arbitration.

“Anytime you have a situation where you have a homegrown player who wants to be here and we want him here and it doesn’t happen, I think those are fair questions to ask and those are questions we certainly need to ask ourselves,” Bloom said.  “We haven’t, as an organization, always found a way to come together in those situations. I think it’s something to think about and assess.”

Rafael Devers presents the next big question for the Red Sox in this regard, as the star third baseman is set to reach free agency following the 2023 season.  In a separate piece, a source close to Devers told Cotillo that “Bogaerts’ decision would not make it more likely that Devers would want to leave Boston,” as much as Devers would be “disappointed” at no longer playing with his longtime friend.

Bloom reiterated his team’s interest in keeping Devers, saying that “Raffy, for sure, is somebody we want to build around.”

“I’ve said it, and I know we haven’t demonstrated this to the degree that we’ve hoped to, but we believe in building around homegrown talent.  You want to do it in the right way,” Bloom said.  “It’s certainly something we want to do as often as we can….[Devers] has been somebody that we love and want right at the center of everything we hope to accomplish, obviously in 2023 but more importantly, in the years beyond, because those are the years he’s not under our control. We’re hoping to change that.”

Red Sox Showing Early Interest In Pitchers; Not Close On Devers Extension

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As the off-season gets underway, much of attention around the Red Sox has been focused on the free agency Xander Bogaerts and the ongoing contract talks with third baseman Rafael Devers, but it Boston is showing early interest in adding pitching this winter. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Red Sox are “digging around the pitching market”, and have been linked to Andrew Heaney and Seth Lugo among others. Jon Morosi of MLB Network has more on their interest in pitching, stating they’ve shown interest – alongside the Angels – in starter Tyler Anderson.

Boston does have a reasonable amount of pitching signed for next season, but a most of it comes with major question marks. Chris Sale is owed $27.5MM but has made just eleven starts in the past three years. James Paxton opted into his $4MM player option for next season, but he didn’t pitch at all in 2022. Brayan Bello showed promise in eleven starts in 2022 and could have a bright future, but those were the first eleven starts of his major league career and he’s still raw. The Red Sox are intending to use Garrett Whitlock as a starter in 2023, but he’s pitched better out of the bullpen and made just nine starts this season. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the only dependable option in Boston’s rotation at this stage, so it’s no surprise they’re looking to add pitching.

Anderson has enjoyed something of a late breakout with the Dodgers this past season. He generally checked in as a solid, back of the rotation starter across his first six seasons in the majors with the Rockies, Giants, Pirates and Mariners. With the Dodgers however, he tossed 178 2/3 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, easily the best numbers of his career and first since 2016 where his ERA had finished under four. A lot of that was due to restricting the long ball, as Anderson’s HR/9 more than halved from 2021 (1.46 down to 0.71). Anderson did receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, so there’s every chance he accepts that one-year, $19.65MM deal and returns to LA.

Heaney, on the other hand, was not tendered a qualifying offer but also enjoyed his own breakout campaign. He pitched to a 3.10 ERA through 72 2/3 innings as a result of leaning more on his slider and less on his changeup. Those numbers came with a significant increase in strikeout rate, as he posted a 35.5% rate, well above his previous high of 28.9% in 2019. He did miss around three months across two separate IL stints with left shoulder problems, so there are some durability concerns.

Lugo has enjoyed six solid seasons pitching out of the Mets bullpen. He threw 65 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, maintaining a strong walk rate of 6.6% and a solid strikeout rate of 25.4%. While it’s not lights out stuff for a reliever, Lugo does have plenty of value as a durable middle reliever. While there’s a case to be made for any or all of these three pitchers finding their way to Boston this winter, it’s still early and the Red Sox will be casting a wide net in their pursuit of pitching.

On the other side of the ball, the Red Sox appear to be some way off agreeing to a contract extension with Devers. The star third baseman will be a free agent after the 2023 season, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that while there is some optimism towards a deal, the two sides remain far apart. Heyman reports that the Red Sox offered Devers a contract slightly above the ten-year, $212MM deal that Austin Riley received from the Braves, but Devers is seeking more than $300MM in an extension.

Devers had another brilliant season in 2022, mashing 27 home runs and compiling a .295/.358/.521 line in 141 games. His wRC+ mark of 140 was the best of his career, but his previous marks of 133, 108 and 132 show he’s regularly been a superb hitter. Defensively, he improved on 2021 but still graded out with negative numbers per Outs Above Average (-2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6). Given he’s already amassed 18.1 fWAR and will be hitting free agency entering his age-27 season, it’s no surprise Devers is seeking big money. The left-hander would be one of the top free agents available on the open market should the Red Sox fail to lock him in before then.

Large Gap Remains Between Red Sox, Rafael Devers In Extension Talks

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The contract statuses of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have been front of mind for Red Sox’s fans dating back to at least this past Spring Training. The club made unsuccessful runs at extending both players in March. Those efforts were put on hold during the season, but with the offseason approaching, they’re certain to rekindle discussions.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom already called working on a new deal with Bogaerts before he opts out (which he can formally do after the World Series) a “top priority” this month. There’s less immediate urgency with Devers, who’s still one year from the open market, but there’s no question Boston’s front office will be in touch with the third baseman’s camp at Rep 1 Baseball throughout the winter.

Earlier this week, reporter Yancen Pujols tweeted the team was making a renewed effort at an extension. Subsequent reports out of Boston characterized a visit from assistant general manager Eddie Romero to Devers in his native Dominican Republic as more of a typical offseason check-in (links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive). There was no question the Sox would make a run at extending Devers at some point this winter, but it’s not clear how much to make of Romero’s check-in.

Regardless of the specific nature of the meeting between Romero and Devers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes tonight the sides have indeed reopened talks recently. Heyman reports that Boston has put forth an offer at or above $200MM but suggests there’s still a notable gap between the sides. According to Heyman, Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.

During Spring Training, the Sox reportedly used the eight-year, $168MM extension signed by Braves first baseman Matt Olson as a viable comparison in talks. The sides were well apart at that time, although Devers’ specific asking price was unclear. Boston has raised its offer on the heels of another very strong season from Devers, but the two-time All-Star has increased leverage after an excellent year that moved him closer to free agency.

In his age-25 campaign, Devers appeared in 141 games and tallied 614 plate appearances. He connected on 27 home runs and put together a .295/.358/.521 line. Those slash stats are in line with his numbers from recent seasons, but Devers’ production was arguably a career best in the context of a leaguewide offensive downturn. By measure of wRC+ (which adjusts annually for the league environment and ballpark), he was 41 percentage points better than an average batter. That’s the best mark of his career, and it ranked among the top 20 hitters in the game (minimum 500 plate appearances).

With another great season under his belt, Devers can feel even more comfortable setting a lofty ask in extension talks. He banked $11.2MM this year and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $16.9MM range next season if he goes through his final year of arbitration. He’s presently slated to be one of the top talents in the 2023-24 free agent class, arguably second behind Shohei Ohtani.

12 months from the open market, Devers’ camp can look to the biggest free agent deals in MLB history to set their asking price. A $16.9MM projected arb salary is obviously below his free agent market value, but he’ll lock in one more strong payday before getting to the open market. The Red Sox can perhaps hope to price in a marginal discount to guard against the possibility of Devers having a disappointing or injury-plagued platform year, but the star third baseman has a significant amount of leverage in talks.

This summer, the Braves signed their All-Star third baseman, Austin Riley, to a 10-year, $212MM extension. Riley owned a .301/.360/.604 line at the time of that deal but serves as a generally similar comparison as a bat-first third baseman. However, Riley’s deal was signed midway through his third full MLB season and bought out his final three years of arbitration eligibility. With only one arbitration season remaining, Devers has far more leverage in extension talks. It’s little surprise his reps are aiming much higher than the Riley range.

At the same time, it’s easy to understand why the Red Sox may not be anxious to dole out a deal topping $300MM. That’s a threshold reached only nine times in MLB history. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton got there on extensions, while Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole and Manny Machado reached or topped the marker on free agent deals.

Devers turned 26 earlier in the week and is on track to reach free agency going into his age-27 season. That’s a year older than Machado and Harper were over the 2018-19 offseason but a year younger than Seager was last winter. Broadly speaking, that youth serves Devers well in his effort to land a decade-long commitment. It’s rare to see teams commit to players deep into their 30’s, but a lengthy pact is more palatable for players who hit the market in their mid-20’s.

At the same time, one could argue all three players were safer long-term bets than Devers. Harper had a more robust offensive track record that included a monster 2015 showing to win an MVP. Machado had hit .297/.367/.538 during his platform year and was a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who could play shortstop if needed. Seager is a full-time shortstop who had a .306/.394/.521 mark during his final year in Los Angeles. All three players also had the benefit of an open market bidding war.

That wasn’t the case for Betts and Lindor, each of whom signed extensions above $300MM with between five and six years of service time. Both players, however, had far more defensive value than Devers. Betts is one of the sport’s top outfielders, and Lindor is arguably the game’s best shortstop.

Devers, by contrast, comes with his share of defensive question marks. He’s played almost exclusively third base in the majors but has always been regarded as a bat-first player. There’s been some trepidation dating back to his time as a prospect about how long he could stick at the hot corner, and that’s largely been borne out in his defensive metrics as a big leaguer. He’s rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career. Statcast gave him an outlier excellent defensive grade in 2019 but has otherwise panned his work as well. This past season, he rated as six runs below average by measure of DRS and two runs below par according to Statcast.

While there’s no indication the Sox would want to move Devers off the hot corner immediately, it’s fair to wonder how deep into a long-term deal he can stick there. He certainly has the offensive aptitude to continue playing every day as a first baseman or designated hitter, but a move further down the defensive spectrum would reduce the team’s roster flexibility around him somewhat.

That’s not to say Devers isn’t an excellent player, but $300MM+ investments have generally been reserved for players with more defensive value or an established MVP-caliber offensive season. Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM extension over the 2014-15 offseason may be the best example for Devers’ camp, but Stanton landed that deal after a .288/.395/.555 showing in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly home environments.

Given the recent comparable players, it’s little surprise Devers and his group would want to handily top $200MM while the Red Sox would balk at an ask north of $300MM. There’s obviously a fair bit of ground in between those extremes. Whether the sides can find a mutually agreeable price at some point over the next six months will be one of the key storylines of the Boston offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Hosmer, Casas, Coaching Staff, Catcher

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This afternoon, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, GM Brian O’Halloran, president Sam Kennedy, and manager Alex Cora spoke with the media (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic) to put a wrap on the 2022 season and provide clarity for the team’s offseason moves.

The quartet made it clear that Xander Bogaerts is a top priority, with Bloom stating that the Red Sox are “going to work really hard” at creating a deal with the long-term shortstop. Bloom continued, adding that he hopes that the Red Sox can get a deal done before the Bogaerts opts out and that the Bogaerts deal is “something that we can work on right away.”

Bogaerts had previously signed a six-year, $120MM extension in 2019 with an opt out after the 2022 season. The star shortstop has not officially stated whether he will exercise the opt out, but he’s a lock to do so and earn far more on the open market. Bogaerts said yesterday he and the team have not had any recent extension talks.

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s longest-tenured player, having made his debut as a 20-year-old in August 2013 and winning two World Series with the club. Since his debut, the recently turned 30-year-old has continued to develop and post strong results, slashing .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and 38 doubles in the 2022 season. Over the past five seasons, Bogaerts has posted a .301/.373/.508 slash line for a strong .880 OPS with 105 home runs, earning three All-Star berths and MVP consideration in the previous four seasons, finishing in fifth during the 2019 season.

If Bogaerts leaves the team, the Red Sox have options internally. Trevor Story, signed to a six-year, $140MM contract during the 2021 offseason, has considerable experience at short. However, Story has expressed a preference to remain at second and retain Bogaerts at short. Utility men Kiké Hernández and Christian Arroyo both have experience at shortstop, but neither produces an offensive output comparable to Bogaerts.

Additionally, Red Sox’s top prospect Marcelo Mayer, ranked as the seventh-best prospect by MLB.com, just finished his first full minor league season, posting a strong .280/.399/.489 line across Low-A and High-A. MLB.com currently projects the 19-year-old to make his debut during the 2024 season. However, Bloom said that prospects who are years away from the Majors will not impact the Red Sox’s approach to their 2023 team.

Transitioning to Rafael Devers, the slugger said on Wednesday that he’d be open to discussing a long-term deal this offseason (via Rob Bradford of WEEI). The Red Sox and Devers reportedly weren’t close during their Spring Training negotiations, but Bloom reiterated today “we would like to” explore a long-term deal with Devers, per Speier.

Devers is headed into his final season of arbitration eligibility, as Mookie Betts was before his blockbuster trade to the Dodgers. Bloom dismissed the possibility of trading Devers, saying that “isn’t on our radar” and that everything the team has done (farm system and payroll-wise) was conducted so that the team “is never in that position [of trading a player like Betts] again.” Bloom added that while it was always possible he’d receive a trade offer that was “stupid to walk away from,” Devers “is a guy that we want to build around.”

Unlike Bogaerts, the Red Sox have fewer internal options to replace Devers at the hot corner. Arroyo and Hernandez are capable of playing there, but, like is the case with shortstop, neither of them provides the offensive output that Devers brings to the team. Bobby Dalbec could be a contender for third base. However, the righty has yet to consistently produce at the major league level, slashing .232/.298/.456, buoyed by a strong .263/.359/.600 in his late 2020 debut season. Jeter Downs and Ryan Fitzgerald are both Triple-A candidates that could see some time if needed, but both will likely continue their development in Triple-A.

Similar to Meyer, ninth-best prospect Blaze Jordan just finished his first full minor league season. Across Low-A and High-A, the 19-year-old posted a combined .289/.363/.445 line. Jordan is also projected to make his debut during the 2024 season, which may be sped up to align with a Devers departure.

Moving to the other side of the infield, Bloom touched on the arrivals of Eric Hosmer and Triston Casas. “I don’t know yet,” he admitted when asked if there was room on the roster for two left-handed first basemen, per Christopher Smith of Mass Live. “Obviously, when we got Hoz, we were focused on what he could bring to us right now and not wanting to rush Triston. I think after that, Triston showed us in Triple-A, coming back off that injury once he got settled in, really the best we’ve seen from him or at least I’ve seen since I’ve been here. …  It’s something we’re going to have to look at.”

Hosmer was acquired at the trade deadline and posted a weak .244/.320/.331 line with the Red Sox in 45 at-bats. He arrived with three years remaining on his eight-year, $144MM contract that he signed in 2018 with the Padres, but San Diego is paying down all but the league minimum salary. Hosmer certainly won’t opt of the remaining $39MM on his deal, but Boston could move from the veteran at virtually no financial cost if they wanted to turn to Casas full time.

Casas is Boston’s second-best prospect, after Mayer, and is ranked as the No. 25 prospect by MLB.com. The slugger made his debut in early September and finished the season going 15-for-76 (.197) with 23 strikeouts. However, he had a strong 20% walk rate, a .358 on-base percentage, and sent five balls over the fence. Bloom stated that the Red Sox were happy with how Casas “progressed the last couple months of the season,” noting that “he was a tough at-bat every single time,” and that the team is “excited” to see how he learns from his brief experience in the Show.

Bloom also noted that the Red Sox “fully expect” they’ll look at the possibility of adding to their catching group externally, per Speier. He suggested the Red Sox see Reese McGuire and Connor Wong as having “raised the floor,” but left open the possibility of an impact addition. Willson Contreras is the clear top free agent available at the position, while deadline trade target Sean Murphy could again be made available by the A’s. McGuire has had a strong start to his Red Sox tenure, slashing a strong .337/.377/.500 for a .877 OPS with three homers in 98 at-bats. However, these high numbers are inflated by an astounding .411 BABIP. Wong has been less productive, posting a .188/.273/.315  line, with a high 28.6% strikeout rate.

Meanwhile, Cora announced that the Red Sox hope to bring back their entire coaching staff for the next season, per Chris Cotillo of Mass Live. However, it’s possible some members of the staff could get a chance to interview for managerial positions this winter. Bench coach Will Venable, in particular, has been a frequent candidate for managerial jobs in past offseasons.

Latest On Red Sox’ Deadline Plans

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As the calendar flipped from June to July, the Red Sox were sitting on a record of 43-33 and holding onto an American League Wild Card spot. However, this has been a disastrous month for them, in which they went 8-19. Now their record is 51-52, placing them 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the final playoff spot, with three teams in between.

Due to that slide, there’s been recent chatter about the club giving consideration to trading impending free agents such as J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Nathan Eovaldi. With less than 48 hours remaining until the trade deadline, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that financial considerations will be a factor in discussions between the Red Sox and other teams. According to Speier, the front office will think about ducking under the luxury tax but will not be required to do so. It’s even possible that they could take on additional salary commitments if it meant adding more prospect talent to the system.

The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in the past but have been trying to run lower payrolls in recent years. Most famously, or infamously, Boston traded away Mookie Betts and David Price as a means of shedding salary. However, they did some aggressive spending this past winter, most notably the six-year, $140MM contract given to Trevor Story, putting them back over the CBT line for this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current CBT number is just over $238MM, placing them $8MM beyond the lowest $230MM threshold. (Speier says they are about $7MM over the line.) Since luxury tax status isn’t determined until the offseason, the Sox could still lower their CBT number and avoid all penalties.

Trading Martinez alone would go most of the way, or perhaps all of the way, to getting Boston back under the line. He’s making a salary of just over $19MM this year, but a player’s contribution to the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value of the player’s entire contract. Since his deal was for $110MM over five years, it comes with an AAV and CBT hit of $22MM this year. At the time of the trade deadline, there will be just over a third of the season remaining, meaning the Red Sox can chop about $7.5MM off of their luxury tax calculation if they find another team to take on the entirety of the remainder of the Martinez contract. Eovaldi and Vazquez have lower AAVs of $17MM and $7MM, respectively. That means an Eovaldi trade could subtract about $5.8MM from the ledger and about $2.4MM in the case of Vazquez. If the Boston brass decide they need to get under the line, it’s certainly something they can achieve by moving some combination of this trio.

This approach will appeal to certain teams but not others, of course. Teams with lower payrolls could potentially prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to take on less salary, but there are also teams in the opposite camp. For example, the Mets are reportedly looking to buy at the deadline but would rather take on money than give up prospects.

However, the Red Sox are also apparently willing to go in another direction, giving thought to using some financial heft to absorb some salary as a means of bolstering their system. The Red Sox have a large number of contracts coming off the books this year, in addition to those already mentioned. Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki are set to reach the open market as well. Furthermore, option decisions could subtract even more money from the 2023 payroll, most notably that owed to Xander Bogaerts, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract in a few months. That gives the Red Sox a CBT number of just under $108MM for next season, according to Jason Martinez. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration eligible players, including Rafael Devers, but it does include Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is indeed subtracted from the ledger, the arbitration players won’t raise that number by much. If Boston is willing to inflate their luxury tax payment this year, they could be in good position to “reset” their CBT status next year. (There are escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive seasons, meaning that even the teams with the highest payrolls often find ways to periodically avoid the tax in order to avoid such a scenario.)

All in all, the Red Sox are shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch as we approach the trade deadline, which is at 5pm on August 2. Since they are on a precipice between the contenders and the rebuilders, they might try to walk a line between the two customary “buying” and “selling” strategies. One thing that seems to be off the table, however, is a full-scale rebuild that sees the team strip things down in a serious way. Bogaerts recently said that he was told that he will not be traded, and now Devers has said the same, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford also relays, however, that there have been no recent contract talks with Bogaerts and the club, meaning it’s still quite possible he opts out at the end of the year, with the club sure to extend him a qualifying offer at that time. Speier also relays word from Vazquez, who also has not had any recent talks about a new contract. Though there are still many possible permutations, it seems that Boston’s roster is headed for a significant shakeup, either this week or in the offseason or both.

Red Sox Notes: Deadline, Bogaerts, Devers, Bell

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“We’re trying to make the postseason,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told NESN’s Tom Caron prior to Tuesday’s game (hat tip to MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith).  This declaration, made a week prior to the trade deadline, seemingly ended some speculation that the Red Sox would look to be deadline sellers, though Bloom did couch his statement with some intriguing caveats: “So whatever that means, we’re going to explore a lot of stuff [at the trade deadline].  Some of them might be things people expect.  Some of them might not be.  But you know, we want to get this group into the postseason.”

It is worth noting that the Sox lost to the Guardians on both Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping Boston’s record to 49-50 for the season.  With a 7-19 mark over their last 26 games, the Red Sox have gone from leading the wild card race to four games out of a wild card slot altogether, and in last place in the competitive AL East.

If Boston can’t string some wins together quickly, it is possible the Sox could turn into more full-fledged sell mode by the August 2 deadline.  However, Bloom’s comments seem to hint that the team could try to thread the needle and both buy and sell at the same time — perhaps moving some pending free agents, but adding longer-term pieces that could also still provide some immediate help.

Beyond Bloom’s public comments, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that when it comes to deadline plans, “typical responses from those inside and outside the organization have ranged from ’it’s all in play’ to ’maybe both’ to objections to the buy/sell dichotomy to shrugs of uncertainty.”  Despite all of these options, a truly big shakeup doesn’t appear to be in order, as both Bloom and (in an interview on WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show) team president/CEO Sam Kennedy each ruled out the possibility of Xander Bogaerts or Rafael Devers being dealt.

“There’s been no discussions or commentary internally or externally about moves related to the trade deadline involving Xander, Raffy, or anyone else to my knowledge.  At this point, we’re focused on getting back in this thing and winning,” Kennedy said.  Not only have talks about the two All-Stars not taken place, “we don’t plan to” hold such talks, Bloom added.

Bogaerts can opt out of his contract following the season, and ever since Boston signed Trevor Story to a free agent deal, there has been widespread feeling that Bogaerts will be playing elsewhere in 2023.  Extension talks with both Bogaerts and Devers prior to the season didn’t result in any progress, which then led to increased speculation about Devers also perhaps leaving in free agency following the 2023 campaign.

If a teardown isn’t in order, and standing pat doesn’t appear to be an option for a team with clear roster needs, it then becomes a question of what types of upgrades the Red Sox will pursue by August 2.  One obvious name on paper doesn’t appear to be a priority, as NBC Sports Boston’s John Tomase reports that the Sox have had only “cursory interest” in Nationals first baseman Josh Bell.  While the Sox have had some talks about Bell, “their interest was described more as kicking the tires.”

First base has been a weak link for the Red Sox all year long, and since Bell is perhaps the likeliest player to be moved prior to the deadline, the two sides seemed like a logical match.  Bell would be a pure rental, as the slugger is set for free agency after the year, and the Nats would be in line to recoup a compensatory pick if Bell left given that the qualifying offer system will again be in place for the 2022-23 offseason.

Anything the Sox or other teams offer the Nationals for Bell, therefore, would have to top the value of that compensatory pick for Washington to go ahead with a deal.  For a team like the Red Sox that is perhaps on the fringes of contending, that could be too much of a price to pay, whereas other known Bell suitors like the Astros, Mets, or Brewers could be more amenable since Bell would increase their chances of winning a championship.

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