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GM Trade History: Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins, the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto and the Phillies’ Matt Klentak. It’s time to head to Los Angeles to check in on the work Andrew Friedman has done since the Dodgers hired the former Tampa Bay GM after the 2014 season. Friedman’s no longer a GM – he has an even more prestigious title as president of baseball operations, and has overseen a perennial powerhouse (albeit one that has fallen short of World Series glory) throughout his reign.

Here’s a rundown of Friedman’s key LA trades, which are in chronological order and exclude minor moves (full details at transaction link):

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

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Friedman has no doubt acquired plenty of notable names since he arrived in Los Angeles. How do you think he has fared in trades during his time atop the Dodgers’ front office?

(Poll link for app users)

Grade Friedman's LA trades
B 42.79% (1,966 votes)
A 41.62% (1,912 votes)
C 11.73% (539 votes)
F 2.00% (92 votes)
D 1.85% (85 votes)
Total Votes: 4,594

Examining Rockies’ Ineffective Free-Agent Spending

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It hasn’t been an enjoyable 12 months for the Rockies organization. There was plenty of goodwill to go around heading into last season after back-to-back playoff berths and the long-term extension franchise player Nolan Arenado signed. But just about everything has gone in the wrong direction for Colorado since then. The club fell on its face in 2019, winning a meager 71 games, and its higher-ups have since irked Arenado. The five-time All-Star surfaced in trade rumors while making it known that he was unhappy with the Rockies’ inactivity over the winter.

The Rockies used the offseason to sign only one major league free agent – untested right-hander Jose Mujica – and for a relatively paltry $563K. Now, expectations are that they’ll again sit near the bottom of the league in 2020 (if there is a season). One key reason the team has slid down the standings and just might stay there? An utter lack of big-money success on the free-agent market.

Since general manager Jeff Bridich assumed the reins after the 2014 season, the Rockies have signed eight free agents to guarantees worth $10MM or more. All of those deals have been landmines to this point, and five of those players are still eating into the team’s payroll – one that Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs estimates will check in at a franchise-record $156MM on Opening Day. With that much cash already tied up, owner Dick Monfort was unwilling to authorize Bridich to spend in recent months. Maybe that’s a good thing, as you’ll see below…

2015-16 Offseason

Parra came to the Rockies off a solid season divided between Milwaukee and Baltimore, though he was anything but effective as a Rockie. He ended his tenure in Colorado with minus-1.1 fWAR and a .283/.320/.407 line (just a 77 wRC+ when adjusted for ballpark) over 1,249 plate appearances. Motte, meanwhile, didn’t even see his entire deal through. The Rockies cut ties with him after 2016, a year in which he notched a 4.94 ERA/5.68 FIP with minus-0.3 fWAR.

2016-17 Offseaosn

It was a head-scratcher from the get-go that the Rockies splurged on Desmond to play first base, as he didn’t look to have the bat to handle the offensively charged position and had spent his career to that point as a shortstop/outfielder. The gamble has not paid off at all for the Rox, who still owe Desmond $25MM through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout for ’22). The 34-year-old accounted for a hideous minus-1.7 fWAR during his first three seasons with the team and batted .252/.313/.429 (80 wRC+) in 1,474 PA. The Rockies moved him back to the outfield last year.

Colorado parted with Dunn late in 2019. He’s now retired after serving as a replacement-level reliever (minus-0.1 fWAR) with the club, though that looks like a generous assessment in light of his 5.93 ERA/5.02 FIP across 85 frames. Injuries limited Dunn to just under 35 combined innings in his final two seasons.

2017-18 Offseason

Evidenced by the $106MM spent on these three, the Rockies made a sincere effort to bolster their bullpen after 2017. The decision has blown up in their face. Davis, lights-out for most of his career, has been awful since joining Colorado. His contract’s still the largest ever on a per-year basis for a reliever, but his production has tanked. He pitched to an almost 9.00 ERA in 2019 and didn’t last the full season as the Rockies’ closer. Meantime, McGee and Shaw haven’t been much better, if at all. Combined, these three have registered minus-0.3 fWAR in 227 1/3 innings since they signed their contracts.

2018-19 Offseason

Desmond couldn’t solidify first base for the Rockies. Murphy hasn’t been able to, either. Once among the premier hitters in the game, the 35-year-old Murphy could only muster a line of .279/.328/.452 (good for a career-low 86 wRC+) and a personal-worst minus-0.2 fWAR in 478 PA.

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If you add up the fWAR for all these players, the figure amounts to minus-3.7. The value of the contracts the Rockies handed this group comes to $256.5MM. That’s a lot of wasted money, and it’s part of the reason the Rockies are in such an unenviable position at the moment.

Prospect Faceoff: Pearson v. Mize

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There might not be two finer right-handed pitching prospects in baseball than the Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson and the Tigers’ Casey Mize. At least a few notable prospect outlets essentially have the pair neck and neck. Baseball America ranks Pearson as the game’s seventh-best farmhand and has Mize at No. 13. FanGraphs puts Pearson at No. 8, Mize 16th. And MLB.com slightly favors Mize, rating him seventh and Pearson eighth.

Between the two, Pearson seems to be closer to making his major league debut. The 23-year-old, whom the Blue Jays chose 28th in the 2017 draft, dazzled in spring training before the game shut down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Pearson fired seven innings of one-run, two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and three walks, flashing triple-digit heat along the way. Carving up the competition isn’t anything new for the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Pearson, who just last season combined for a 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 101 2/3 innings divided among the High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels. It was the first extensive pro year for Pearson, who tossed a meager 1 2/3 frames in 2018 as he dealt with a back injury and a fractured ulna.

Whether Pearson will be handle a starter’s workload over the long haul is one of the few questions surrounding him. He only averaged a little over four innings per appearance in 2019, and Baseball America writes, “The fact that Pearson throws with so much velocity on every fastball also gives some scouts concerns about whether that’s a durability risk.” If Pearson can hold up, though, he clearly has the potential to evolve into a front-line starter at the MLB level.

Mize, 22, has ace upside in his own right. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and has lived up to the billing in the minors thus far. Mize doesn’t throw as hard as Pearson (his typical fastball clocked in at 93 mph in ’19), but he was just about untouchable last year in High-A (0.88 ERA over 30 2/3 innings) before earning a promotion to Double-A. Mize continued to wow at the second-highest level of the minors, where he recorded a 3.20 ERA and 8.69 K/9 against 2.06 BB/9 in 15 starts and 78 2/3 frames; however, Mize did miss a few weeks with shoulder inflammation, and the Tigers put an early end to his season to preserve him for future years. He returned during the spring with four innings of three-hit, two-run pitching, notching six strikeouts and a pair of walks.

If health doesn’t fail either of these hurlers in the coming seasons, baseball fans could be treated to another couple of electrifying arms. Which of the two would you take as a building block? (Poll link for app users)

Pick a prospect
Nate Pearson 53.19% (2,162 votes)
Casey Mize 46.81% (1,903 votes)
Total Votes: 4,065

Rebound Candidate: Domingo Santana

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To say it was a low-spending winter for the Indians would be an understatement. They largely stayed away from doling out guaranteed contracts, but the one-year, $1.5MM pact they handed outfielder Domingo Santana was among the few. The Indians are hoping Santana can turn the clock back a couple seasons and help them reclaim the American League Central from the reigning division champion Twins. If there is a season in 2020, Santana figures to at least open it as a prominent member of the Indians’ lineup.

In the event that the Indians get something resembling the 2017 version of Santana, it’ll go down as one of the shrewdest bargain signings of the offseason. As a member of the Brewers that year, Santana batted .278/.371/.505 (127 wRC+) with 30 home runs, 15 stolen bases and 3.3 fWAR in 607 plate appearances. Santana crashed to earth the next year, though, and the Brewers traded him to the Mariners during the ensuing offseason.

At first, the Santana pickup looked like a wise move by the Mariners. Santana was an effective offensive player during the first half of the season, but thanks in part to a nagging right elbow injury, his production tanked from July onward. Santana wound up posting a .253/.329/.441 line (good for a 107 wRC+) with 21 homers and eight steals over 507 PA. That’s not going to cut it for someone who was inept in the field, where he accounted for a horrific minus-16 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-16.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. Santana’s defensive troubles helped overshadow his passable performance at the plate, rendering him a replacement-level player (0.0 fWAR). As a result, the Mariners non-tendered Santana during the winter in lieu of paying him a projected $4.4MM in arbitration.

Based on the numbers he put up from 2018-19, Santana’s days as an impact contributor could be over. And he didn’t help himself during spring training before it shut down, collecting twice as many strikeouts as hits (10 to five) in an admittedly small sample size consisting of 25 trips to the plate. That said, there may be at least some hope for a revival on the offensive side. As mentioned, Santana’s elbow failed him in 2019 and had a hand in his horrid second-half output, so staying healthy this year would bode well for a rebound. Plus, it’s worth noting that Santana fared rather nicely in multiple Statcast categories as a Mariner. He ranked in the league’s 69th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected weighted on-base average (.347, compared to a .326 real wOBA), and in its 74th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.492). Santana also finished with an excellent .483 xwOBA on contact.

One clear issue for Santana is that he had great difficulty actually putting the bat on the ball last year, finishing 11th worst among 135 qualifiers in contact percentage (69.9) and dead last in strikeout rate (32.3). But an overwhelming amount of strikeouts is what everyone has come to expect from Santana, who has fanned 32 percent of the time since he debuted in the majors in 2014. Even in his career-best 2017, Santana went down on strikes at a 29 percent-plus clip. However, he helped offset that to some degree with a 12.5 percent walk rate – a number that dipped below 10 percent in each of the previous two seasons.

Along with better health and amassing more walks, it seems Santana’s value to the Indians will increase if they keep him away from the field. For the most part, Santana has been a defensive nightmare in the bigs, having recorded minus-37 DRS and a minus-31.2 UZR. He should see a lot of DH time in Cleveland, which ought to aid in maximizing his value, but one problem for the club is that it has a similar corner outfielder in Franmil Reyes. He’s another powerful, high-strikeout, defensively challenged player. At least one of those two will be in the outfield on a regular basis, and that probably doesn’t sound too appealing if you’re a member of Cleveland’s pitching staff.

Considering Santana’s defensive shortcomings, the Indians couldn’t have taken a flier on the 27-year-old expecting him to hold his own in the field. Instead, the hope for the Indians is that Santana will reach his previous heights as a hitter, and it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see him at least log respectable numbers at the plate if his health holds up. The team’s paying Santana relatively little, so he shouldn’t have much trouble living up to his deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2020 Amateur Draft Pool Allocations

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After easily finishing with Major League Baseball’s worst record (47-114) in 2019, the Tigers are set to pick first in this upcoming summer’s draft. The Orioles – owners of the No. 1 pick a year ago – will make the second choice, but they have the most money available to sign their selections, as Jim Callis of MLB.com details. On the opposite end of the spectrum, after losing their first- and second-round picks as a result of a sign-stealing scandal, the Astros have the least cash at their disposal.

This is shaping up to be a rather unusual and far shorter draft because of the coronavirus pandemic. The draft spanned 40 rounds from 2012-19, but it could go down to as few as five rounds this year. MLB can increase that amount at its discretion, but regardless, it’s going to be a truncated event. Furthermore, while the draft is scheduled to start June 10, odds are that the league will push it back until sometime in July.

Courtesy of Callis, all teams’ bonus pools for this year’s draft can be seen below. Callis also included totals in the event of a 10-round draft, which are in parentheses. If you’re interested in finding out the slot value of each selection, check out Callis’ piece:

Orioles: $13,871,500 ($14,936,200)
Tigers: $13,276,000 ($14,348,100)
Royals: $12,499,500 ($13,549,800)
Marlins: $11,967,100 ($13,024,700)
Pirates: $11,132,700 ($12,162,800)
Padres: $10,652,600 ($11,675,600)
Rockies: $10,319,500 ($11,336,200)
Mariners: $10,218,400 ($11,255,200)
Blue Jays: $9,694,300 ($10,737,700)
Giants: $9,165,000 ($10,156,500)
Reds: $8,510,400 ($9,508,400)
Cardinals: $7,803,300 ($8,748,900)
White Sox: $7,744,700 ($8,749,200)
Indians: $7,616,200 ($8,551,100)
Rays: $7,432,400 ($8,362,200)
Diamondbacks: $7,166,200 ($8,128,000)
Mets: $7,101,200 ($8,057,500)
Rangers: $7,065,100 ($8,050,700)
Cubs: $6,702,600 ($7,676,000)
Nationals: $6,588,300 ($7,528,700)
Red Sox: $6,514,300 ($7,481,900)
Angels: $6,377,000 ($7,387,600)
Brewers: $6,028,600 ($6,979,500)
Dodgers: $5,862,900 ($6,768,000)
Phillies: $5,425,000 ($6,404,300)
Athletics: $5,199,300 ($6,118,900)
Twins: $4,493,400 ($5,408,000)
Braves: $4,114,100 ($5,039,000)
Yankees: $3,509,800 ($4,419,500)
Astros: $2,176,500 ($3,077,000)

Angels Release Roberto Baldoquin

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It has been five years since the Angels, led at that point by former general manager Jerry Dipoto, signed Cuban infield prospect Roberto Baldoquin for what was then a record bonus worth $8MM. But the Angels and current GM Billy Eppler have moved on from Baldoquin, whom they recently released, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America.

Including the 100 percent overage tax that accompanied the Baldoquin signing, the Angels forked over somewhere between $14MM and $15MM to land him, as Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register note. The Halos ultimately got nothing from that investment. To make matters worse, the Baldoquin deal prevented the Angels from inking an international free agent for more than $300K during the ensuing two signing periods, which featured the likes of Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. All three signed for greater amounts.

Baldoquin, who will turn 26 years old next month, has never stood out in minor league baseball since he emigrated from his homeland. With the exception of a decent short-term High-A stint in 2018, his numbers at the lower levels have ranged from a bit below average to terrible. Baldoquin’s struggled continued last year in Double-A ball, where he batted .232/.291/.301 (74 wRC+) with two home runs and a microscopic .070 isolated power mark in 299 trips to the plate.

Prospect Faceoff: Robert v. Adell

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There isn’t much doubt that the White Sox’s Luis Robert and the Angels’ Jo Adell are the two best outfield prospects in baseball. The prospect gurus at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs all rank the two that way, and they also place them among the top farmhands in baseball no matter the position. Robert (No. 2 overall at BA, No. 3 at MLB.com and No. 7 at FanGraphs) holds a small edge over Adell (No. 3 at BA, No. 6 at MLB.com and No. 4 at FanGraphs) at two of the three outlets, but they’re lumped so close together that the difference is negligible.

The Cuba-born Robert has already landed a pair of lucrative contracts during his time in professional baseball. Now 22 years old, Robert joined the White Sox in 2017 for a $26MM signing bonus. Robert has since destroyed minor league pitching, including during a 2019 campaign in which he earned his first promotion to Triple-A ball. He batted .297/.341/.634 (136 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 223 plate appearances at that level, though his strikeout and walk rates were below average (24.7% K, 4.9% BB). Robert’s production was enough to convince the White Sox to make yet another sizable investment in him. This past January, they inked Robert to a six-year, $50MM guarantee – a record for a player with no major league service time (the move has gone over quite well). The deal paved the way for Robert to begin as the White Sox’s center fielder in 2020, if a season actually happens.

Adell, meanwhile, probably won’t open 2020 on the Angels’ roster, but it might not be long before he forces his way up and takes the reins in right field. He may be able to play all three outfield spots, but the team already has Justin Upton in left and pretty good player named Mike Trout in center. Before Adell gets to Anaheim, the soon-to-be 21-year-old – who became an Angel when they chose him 10th overall in 2017 – will likely have to improve his production in Triple-A. Adell had little to no success there last season, hitting .264/.321/.355 (67 wRC+) with no homers, a 32.6 percent strikeout rate and a 7.6 walk rate over 132 PA, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he has been extraordinarily productive in the minors. It was only a year ago, for instance, that Adell returned from early season hamstring and ankle injuries to bat .308/.390/.553 (173 wRC+) across 182 PA in Double-A, thereby earning a promotion.

Baseball America regards both Robert and Adell as potential franchise players in the making. Robert obviously has the Triple-A track record on his side, but that doesn’t mean he’ll end up as the more valuable major leaguer. If we’re to believe prospect experts, you really can’t lose between the two of them, but which one would you rather bet on going forward?

(Poll link for app users)

Which prospect would you rather have?
Luis Robert 60.13% (2,941 votes)
Jo Adell 39.87% (1,950 votes)
Total Votes: 4,891

GM Trade History: Phillies’ Matt Klentak

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins and the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto. Let’s now head to Philadelphia to evaluate Matt Klentak, who has worked alongside president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail with the organization since 2015. (Deals are in chronological order and exclude minor moves; full details at transaction link).

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

  • None

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What are your thoughts on Klentak’s trades in Philly (Poll link for app users)

Grade Matt Klentak's trades
C 44.91% (2,034 votes)
B 28.33% (1,283 votes)
D 16.71% (757 votes)
F 6.91% (313 votes)
A 3.14% (142 votes)
Total Votes: 4,529

 

Transaction Retrospection: An Arizona-Seattle Blockbuster

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MLBTR’s Steve Adams just recapped the notable trades that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has made dating back to his hiring late in the 2015 season. That was an unenviable task when you consider the eye-popping amount of deals that Trader Jerry has swung since he arrived in Seattle. One of Dipoto’s most significant moves so far came on Nov. 23, 2016, when the Mariners and Diamondbacks made a trade that will likely impact both franchises for the foreseeable future.

The Mariners sent right-hander Taijuan Walker and middle infielder Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for middle infielder Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and lefty Zac Curtis. The only member of the quintet who hasn’t established himself in the majors is Curtis, who pitched 38 innings in the bigs from 2016-18 but is now a free agent after the Rangers released him last July. On the other hand, Walker, Marte, Segura and Haniger have all enjoyed at least some success at the MLB level.

Walker, once a blue-chip prospect, hasn’t really lived up to the hype thus far. After a so-so run with the Mariners, he did well for Arizona in 2017, throwing 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP ball. Unfortunately, injuries have cut down Walker since then. He underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2018, forcing him to miss almost all of that season, and then made just one appearance last season as he recovered from TJS and battled shoulder problems. The 27-year-old is now back with the Mariners on an inexpensive contract, so it’s clear that the acquisition didn’t work out as hoped for the Diamondbacks.

On the other side, the Marte pickup has gone swimmingly for Arizona. Marte was not the headliner in the deal at the time, but he’s a former top-100 prospect who has emerged as one of the majors’ stars during his short MLB career. The switch-hitting Marte, now 26, had his struggles in his first season as a D-back, but that didn’t stop GM Mike Hazen from extending him on a five-year, $24MM guarantee going into 2018. That decision has worked out beautifully for Arizona, which benefited from Marte’s 2.6-fWAR effort in 2018 and far more from his 7.1-fWAR showing last season. Marte divided his nearly MVP-caliber 2019 campaign between second base and center field – positions that were sore spots for the Mariners.

The Mariners miss Marte, but that doesn’t mean they came away empty-handed in this swap. As noted earlier, they got back Walker on a low-cost pact that may or may not pay dividends. Segura gave the team two productive seasons before it traded him to the Phillies in a deal for shortstop J.P. Crawford, who has a chance to end up as the M’s long-term answer at the position. And then there’s Haniger, who thrived from 2017-18 before a gruesome injury (a ruptured testicle) deprived him of 99 of 162 games in 2019. Haniger was not viewed as a can’t-miss prospect when the trade went down, but he ran roughshod over Triple-A pitching and has held his own in the majors when healthy. He’s under control through 2022, so a healthy version could either continue as an asset for the rebuilding Mariners or wind up as a valuable trade chip.

Adding everything up, this counts as one of the most fascinating deals of the past few years. Both sides landed good players, but Marte has clearly been the most valuable piece to this point. The Marte addition is among the reasons D-backs GM Mike Hazen’s trade history has gone over so well.

Rebound Candidate: Lorenzo Cain

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Lorenzo Cain has unquestionably been one of Major League Baseball’s elite center fielders over the past several years. During his greatest stretch – a five-year run divided between the Royals and Brewers from 2014-18 – Cain racked up four seasons of better than 4.0 fWAR, ranked fifth among all outfielders in that statistic (22.7), fourth in Defensive Runs Saved (67) and fifth in Ultimate Zone Rating (43.7). He was also an indispensable piece for the Royals in 2014, an American League pennant-winning campaign, and even more productive the next season during a year in which the team won its first World Series since 1985.

The Royals haven’t been nearly as successful since they last took the crown, but Cain remained a quality contributor for the club over the next two years. His overall track record convinced the small-market Brewers to splurge on Cain entering 2018, handing him a five-year, $80MM contract.

The Cain gamble couldn’t have worked out much better in 2018 for the Brewers, who saw him slash .308/.395/.417 (good for a career-best 124 wRC+) with 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases across 620 plate appearances. And Cain continued to take hits away from opponents in the field, where he totaled 18 DRS, 8.7 UZR and 22 Outs Above Average (No. 1 among outfielders). The entire package was worth 5.7 fWAR. FanGraphs valued it at just over $45MM, more than half the total of his contract.

Cain helped lead the Brewers to an NL Central title in 2018, and while they did return to the playoffs last year, he wasn’t nearly as helpful to their cause. Owing in part to thumb, wrist and oblique problems, the 33-year-old turned in one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, hitting .260/.325/.372 (83 wRC+) over 623 PA.

Cain has never been much of a power hitter, so that wasn’t the culprit for his decline (in fact, he ended up with even more homers – 11 – than he did in the previous season). But Cain stole 12 fewer bases (18 on 26 attempts) and went from one of FanGraphs’ highest-graded base runners to merely mediocre. It didn’t help that Cain plummeted on the Sprint Speed leaderboard, going from a tie from 84th in the majors in 2018 to a tie for 185th last season. That’s an alarming one-year drop, though he did still rank in the game’s 72nd percentile in the Sprint Speed category.

It goes without saying that if you’re going to maximize your potential as a runner, you have to get on base first. Cain wasn’t able to do that nearly as much as usual last year, in part because of a walk rate that sunk by 3.5 percent from the prior season and a strikeout rate that climbed by almost 2 percent. More importantly, when Cain put the ball in play, his BABIP fell off to a noticeable extent. He put up a .357 BABIP during his excellent 2018, and his speed has helped him to a lifetime .339 mark, but he checked in at just .301 in 2019.

The good news is that there’s still enough data to suggest Cain can at least be a passable offensive player going forward. For one, his .330 expected weighted on-base average last season outdid his real wOBA (.302) by 28 points. He also upped his hard-hit rate by about 2 percent from ’18, ranking in the league’s 69th percentile, and ended in the 88th percentile in expected batting average (.290). Cain’s power wasn’t there, but again, that hasn’t been his bread and butter anyway.

Defensively, there was no let-up at all. Cain placed third among all outfielders in OAA (14), trailing the much younger Victor Robles and Kevin Kiermaier, fourth in DRS (22) and ninth in UZR (7.0). Despite his advanced age (relative to outfielders, that is), it’s hard to argue that Cain isn’t still a world-class defender at the very least.

Cain’s marvelous defense and his above-average speed will continue to give him a decent floor this year even if he’s unable to revisit his best form as a hitter. But if he can even go back to being a league-average offensive player in 2020, Cain should return to being a highly valuable member of Milwaukee’s roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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