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2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Padres Notes: Rotation, Wacha, Engel

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Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is expected to make his final rehab start today for the organization’s Single-A affiliate, as noted by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. That would put Musgrove on track to return to the Padres sometime later this week, a welcome development for a club that has seen its current six-man rotation set-up lead to an overly taxed bullpen.

With only seven relievers on the roster, the club needs its starters to be able to go deeper into games and cover more innings, but that hasn’t been the case early in the season. San Diego starters have failed to complete six innings in nine of the club’s 16 games this season, with just three starts lasting into the seventh inning. The return of Musgrove, who pitched at least six innings in 22 of his 30 regular season starts last season, should help relieve some of the load off the bullpen, but the question remains as to who Musgrove will replace in the rotation.

Ken Rosenthal suggested on FOX Sports yesterday that right-hander Nick Martinez could head to the bullpen as the odd man out, while Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune suggested that it could be young left-hander Ryan Weathers who is either optioned to Triple-A or pushed to the bullpen in order to make room for Musgrove, though Sanders notes that the club’s schedule, which includes two off-days in the final week of April and five throughout the month of May, could make the current six-man rotation setup untenable in the longer term and force the club to look at moving Martinez or righty Seth Lugo to the bullpen.

Weathers, 23, struggled to a 5.49 ERA with a 5.42 FIP the past two seasons, with all of that work except for a single 3 2/3 inning spot start coming during the 2021 campaign. He’s done well so far in 2023, posting an strong 2.70 ERA in two starts (10 innings) so far this season, though he’s struck out just five batters so far and failed to record an out in the sixth inning. By contrast, Martinez has struggled in terms of run prevention, with a 5.60 ERA across three starts, but has been able to go deeper into games, failing to make it out of the fifth inning just once while recording six and seven innings in his other two appearances.

More from San Diego…

  • As noted by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Padres right-hander Michael Wacha entered the offseason hoping to return to the Red Sox, for whom he posted a 3.32 ERA in 127 1/3 innings in 2022. Cotillo notes that the Red Sox never appeared close to re-signing the 31 year-old righty, who eventually signed in San Diego on a complex four-year, $26MM deal with multiple team and player options involved. Wacha noted that Boston expressed interest in retaining him for the 2023 season, but ultimately did not get into specifics of his negotations with the club, saying that “you might have to ask [Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom] about that one.” That being said, Wacha did note the importance of San Diego’s willingness to offer a multi-year deal held in his ultimate decision to sign with the club.
  • As noted by Sanders, outfielder Adam Engel, who’s been sidelined to this point in the season with a hamstring injury. began a rehab assignment in Triple-A yesterday. With David Dahl having recently joined Engel on the injured list, the club’s outfield depth has been tested, with the likes of Rougned Odor and Brandon Dixon making recent starts in the outfield alongside Juan Soto and Trent Grisham. Engel’s impending return should provide some much-needed support to the Padres outfield, as should Fernando Tatis Jr., who is set to return from his suspension later this week.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Looking At The Padres’ Rotation Options

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The Padres have been quite aggressive in recent years on all fronts, from signing free agents to trading for stars and extending their own players. That has shot their budget up to record heights, with Roster Resource currently estimating their payroll at $250MM. Up until a few years ago, they had only barely nudged past the $100MM mark, jumping to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Despite all that aggression, they’re going into the season with uncertainty in their rotation, both in the short-term and long-term. They should have a strong front three this year in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That leaves two question marks at the back, since Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea reached free agency and signed elsewhere. Darvish and Snell are both slated to reach free agency after this year, opening up more holes in the future. MacKenzie Gore’s inclusion in the Juan Soto trade also weakened the future outlook. So, who do they have on hand to step up and take these jobs? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

Nick Martinez

Martinez, 32, spent four seasons in Japan and parlayed that into a four-year deal with the Padres going into 2022, a deal that allowed him to opt out after each season. Last year was a mixed bag for Martinez, as he logged 106 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. That’s solid production overall but it came in the form of a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 innings as a starter and a 2.67 mark in 54 innings as a reliever.

Martinez opted out and re-signed with the club on another deal, this time on a three-year pact. The details are unusually complex as there are plenty of incentives, as well as a dual club/player option structure. Whether he can find better results as a starter this time around remains to be seen. It’s certainly a risk for the Friars but at least it seems he comes with the floor of helping out the bullpen.

Should Martinez truly establish himself as a starter, the club will be able to keep him around. Martinez will get paid a $10MM base salary this year and the team will then have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. That affords them a bit more control over his future than his previous opt-out laden deal. However, if Martinez does not have a successful campaign and they turn down that option, he will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. That gives the Friars upside and downside potential in the pact. Those dollar figures can also reportedly change based on incentives, though the exact details aren’t known.

Seth Lugo

Lugo, 33, is a somewhat similar situation to Martinez, as he could potentially wind up in the rotation or in the bullpen. He made 23 starts in 2017-18 but only seven since, largely working as a reliever. That move was at least partially motivated by a “slight” tear that was discovered in his right ulnar collateral ligament in 2017.

Regardless, Lugo has served as an effective reliever since then, posting a 3.56 ERA over the past two years, and there’s some hope that his five-pitch mix can help him transition back into a rotation. It’s another risky move that the Padres were willing to take, giving Lugo two years and $15MM, with Lugo able to opt-out after the first. He hasn’t topped 80 innings in a season since 2018 and it’s hard to know how smooth this switch will be.

If it goes well, there won’t be any long-term upside for the club, since Lugo will make a $7.5MM salary but can opt out of the same figure for 2024. If the experiment works, he’s likely to return to free agency and find a larger guarantee. If it fails, the Padres will still be on the hook for another season.

Adrián Morejón

Morejón, 24 in February, has long been one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the league. Baseball America placed him on their top 100 list for five straight years beginning in 2017. Various injuries slowed him during his ascent to the majors and he’s yet to even pitch 70 official innings in any season of his career, majors or minors or combined.

Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 wiped out most of that season. He returned to health in 2022 but pitched in relief. The club reportedly still views him as a starter but he will likely have workload concerns this year. Between the majors and the minors last year, he logged 47 1/3 frames. He should be able to push that up now that he’s further removed from the surgery, but getting to a full starter’s workload would be a lot to ask. He has just over three years of MLB service time now, giving him the ability to provide some long-term help to the club’s rotation if he stays healthy and makes good on his prospect pedigree in 2023.

Jay Groome

Groome, 24, was a 12th overall pick of the Red Sox in 2016. He was once a highly-touted prospect but has hit various speed bumps. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 and most of his 2019, which was followed by the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since returned to health and posted decent results but with some of the prospect shine having worn off.

In 2022, which included a trade to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer deal, he pitched 144 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. The 3.44 ERA is nice, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is right around average and his 10.4% walk rate was on the concerning side. He’s yet to reach the majors and arguably has the greatest chance to provide future value to the club with his six seasons of control and one remaining option year.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

Honeywell, 28 in March, is also a former top prospect. A Rays draftee, he was on BA’s top 100 in five straight seasons from 2016-20. Similar to Morejón and Groome, injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential thus far. Tommy John surgery in 2018 put him on the shelf and he has dealt with various setbacks since then. He was healthy enough to toss 86 innings in 2021 between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham, with the club then dealing him to Oakland. However, more injury setbacks resulted in just 20 1/3 minor league innings for the A’s last year.

Honeywell seems to be healthy again at the moment, as he’s tossed 28 innings in the Dominican Winter League. His 0.96 ERA in that time seems to have been enough to impress the Padres, as they signed him to their 40-man roster last week. It would make for a terrific bounceback story if he were to finally put it all together, but it’s hard to bank on him after hardly pitching in the past five years. He still has less than a year of service time, giving the Padres plenty of upside if it all clicks, but Honeywell is also out of options and will have to produce in the big leagues right away to hang onto his roster spot.

Reiss Knehr/Pedro Avila/Ryan Weathers

These three are all on the 40-man roster and warrant a mention, though they are unlikely to be called upon except in an emergency. All three of them have gotten some big league time in recent seasons, getting fairly brief showings in swing roles. Weathers probably has the most upside of the trio since he’s just 23 whereas the others are going into their respective age-26 seasons. Weathers was considered a top 100 prospect going into 2021 but he has a 5.49 ERA in the big leagues so far and posted a 6.73 ERA in 123 Triple-A innings last year, getting bumped to the bullpen as the season wore on.

Wilmer Font

Font, 33 in May, is a real wild card. He was a journeyman in the majors for many years but went to Korea to play in the KBO in 2021. Over the last two years, he’s been pitching at an ace level for the SSG Landers. He made 25 starts in 2021 with a 3.46 ERA and then 28 starts last year with a 2.69 mark. In that latter season, he got strikeouts at a 23.3% rate, walking only 4.7% of batters faced and he got ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play.

Success overseas doesn’t always translate to success in the majors, but Font wouldn’t be the first pitcher to underwhelm in North America but then return after a breakout elsewhere, with Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly some of the recent examples. Font isn’t currently on the 40-man and will have to earn his way back into the mix but he will be an interesting one to watch.

Julio Teheran/Aaron Brooks

These two veterans have also been brought aboard on minor league deals. Teheran spent 2022 in Indy ball and the Mexican League, posting some decent numbers in 13 starts between various clubs. He then went to the Dominican for winter ball and has posted a 3.49 ERA through eight starts there. He had a solid run with the Braves earlier in his career but got lit up in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA and then was injured for most of 2021.

Brooks was great in the KBO in 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.79 ERA over 36 starts in that time. However, his attempted return to the majors didn’t go well. He made five relief appearances for the Cardinals with a 7.71 ERA and got outrighted to the minors. In 15 Triple-A appearances, 13 starts, his ERA was 5.56.

All told, the Padres have lots of options here but all of them have question marks. There’s a handful of faded prospects who still need to put injury concerns in the rearview mirror and another handful of veteran swingmen who still might end up better suited to the bullpen than the rotation. Musgrove-Darvish-Snell gives them a strong front three, meaning the Padres only really need a couple of these guys to step up. On the other hand, they are one injury away from someone in this group suddenly being in the #3 slot.

The Padres could always supplement their staff between now and Opening Day, but recent reporting has suggested they don’t have much more payroll space to work with. If they want to go the trade route, there are certainly options, such as the Marlins having plenty of arms available and the Brewers perhaps in a similar boat.

Details On Nick Martinez’s New Contract With Padres

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Nick Martinez opted out of his Padres contract at the end of the offseason but he and the club agreed to a new deal last week. The club made it official today by announcing the deal, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic added some more information about the incentives.

As a recap, it’s technically a three-year, $26MM deal but with a convoluted structure. Martinez will get a $10MM base salary in 2023, which is the straightforward part. After that, the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. If they decline, Martinez will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. Since player options are considered guaranteed, that $16MM option and the $10MM base in 2023 combine to form a $26MM guarantee.

Adding some extra layers of complication are the incentives that Lin outlines, which reflect the uncertain role Martinez will play going forward. He started 2022 in the rotation but eventually got bumped to the bullpen, with his new contract seemingly accounting for a similar trajectory in 2023. Martinez will get paid based on games started, earning an extra $500K at 10, 15, 20 and 25 starts. In terms of relieving, he’ll get $100K at 10 appearances and 20 appearances, $200K at 30, 40, 50 and 60 appearances. For games finished, he will get $200K each at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 finishes.

That’s technically $4.4MM in available incentives, though there’s no way Martinez unlocks all of those. For instance, if he makes 25 starts, he’s unlikely to trigger many of the relief incentives, since a healthy pitcher will make about 32-33 starts over a full season. However, this contract allows Martinez to continue increasing his earnings whether he’s starting or relieving, so long as he’s healthy.

The aforementioned option values can also change, as Lin adds that there are escalators based on Martinez hitting certain innings totals, making the All-Star team or finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. Those details aren’t publicly known at this time.

Going forward, the Friars have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell taking up the first three spots in the rotation. Martinez is a candidate to take one of the spots at the back end, but subsequent moves by the team could push him to the bullpen. Last year, he posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all better out of the bullpen than the rotation.

Padres, Nick Martinez Agree To Three-Year Deal

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Nov. 16, 9:46pm: Lin reports the full contract breakdown, which goes well beyond a traditional deal. According to the Athletic, Martinez will make $10MM next season. At the end of the year, the Friars have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM team options for the 2024-25 campaigns — essentially a two-year, $32MM option. If the team declines those options, Martinez will have to decide whether to exercise successive $8MM player options — a two-year, $16MM guarantee — or test free agency next offseason. The deal also contains various yet-unknown incentives and escalators that could boost the price of both his 2023 base salary and those of the option years.

It’s an atypical but not completely unheard of contract structure. The deal resembles one signed by James Paxton with the Red Sox last winter, which gave Boston a two-year club option that, if declined, would leave Paxton to decide on a player option or trip to free agency.

It’s technically a three-year, $26MM guarantee, as previously reported. Player options are treated as guaranteed money, so that $16MM plus his $10MM base salary for next year counts as the $26MM total. For luxury tax purposes, it’s calculated as an $8.67MM average annual value. However, if the Padres were to exercise their option, Martinez would be paid $42MM over the next three years (plus any incentives he reaches). Depending on the option decisions, he could reach free agency again next offseason having collected $10MM or play things out in San Diego for three years at either $26MM or $42MM.

Nov. 16, 7:43am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets the deal is a three-year, $26MM contract with incentives to boost that base-level guarantee.

Nov. 15: The Padres are in agreement with free agent righty Nick Martinez, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link) were first to report the sides were making progress on a new contract. Martinez, an Octagon client, had opted out of the final three years on his previous deal with San Diego last week. It’s a new three-year deal for Martinez, Lin reports (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, he’s expected to top the $18MM he left on the table when he triggered his opt-out provision.

The 32-year-old will stick with the organization that signed him to a four-year guarantee last offseason. That deal, a surprisingly strong sum for a player who’d spent the prior three seasons in Japan, reunited the former Ranger hurler with longtime Texas executive A.J. Preller, who’s running baseball operations in San Diego.

Preller and his staff’s affinity for Martinez paid off, as the Fordham product acclimated well in his return to the big leagues. He began the year in the rotation, starting 10 of 12 appearances through the middle of June. He posted a solid 4.03 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out a roughly average 21.9% of opposing hitters. Martinez walked batters at a slightly elevated 10.4% clip but was a generally solid back-of-the-rotation stabilizer.

The Friars nevertheless elected to kick Martinez to the bullpen at that point, preferring to rely on a rotation of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger and MacKenzie Gore. Even after Gore was injured and subsequently traded to the Nationals, San Diego kept Martinez in relief. That’s in large part due to his effectiveness, as he was particularly valuable for the club working in shorter stints. In 46 innings across 35 appearances from that point forward, he posted a 2.74 ERA while holding opponents to a putrid .211/.282/.333 line in 188 plate appearances.

Dominant as that showing was, Martinez didn’t experience the same kind of boost most pitchers do upon working in shorter stints. His strikeout rate actually dipped relative to his early-season mark, falling to 20.2%. His velocity did jump, but the bigger change in his profile was improved control. Martinez only walked 7.4% of batters faced upon a full-time conversion to relief; he also induced grounders on almost half the batted balls he allowed during that stretch.

Altogether, Martinez’s return season in the big leagues consisted of 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fared better in the bullpen but had success in both roles. Heading into his age-32 campaign, he and his representatives were faced with one of the tougher opt-out decisions of the winter. The three remaining years on his deal contained a total of $19.5MM in guaranteed money while affording him the chance to opt out after each season. He chose to do so after 2022, collecting a $1.5MM buyout while giving him the chance to explore offers from other teams.

Even as he hit the market, Martinez and the Padres seemed to have mutual interest in a reunion from the beginning. Perhaps the bigger potential stumbling block than financial terms was the hurler’s desire to get a full-time rotation opportunity. Preller confirmed at last week’s GM Meetings that Martinez preferred to be a starter, but he stopped short of publicly committing him a rotation spot. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote at the time some in the organization believed Martinez was a better fit for relief work, but it seems likely the Friars will at least give him a chance to compete for a starting job next spring.

The enviable rotation depth San Diego possessed six months ago is now far thinner. Gore was traded, while Manaea and Clevinger struggled down the stretch and look likely to depart via free agency. Musgrove signed a five-year extension and is locked in atop the rotation for the future. Darvish and Snell are each under contract for one more season and presently look as if they’ll occupy the second and third spots, although Preller’s affinity for bold roster shake-ups at least raises the possibility one of those two could be dealt. Even if they return, Martinez would join Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr among the internal candidates for a back-of-the-rotation spot. Further bolstering the starting staff figures to be a priority for Preller and his group, even if they plan to legitimately consider Martinez for one such role.

Financial terms of the agreement are not yet clear. The Friars presently have around $204MM in estimated commitments for 2023, not including Martinez, per Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger is around $225MM, not far shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. It looks likely the Friars will exceed the CBT for a third straight season in 2023 — particularly since the rotation, first base and left field remain areas in question for the win-now club in the coming months.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nick Martinez Opts Out Of Padres Contract

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Right-hander Nick Martinez has exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres and is now a free agent, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune (Twitter link). Martinez originally signed a four-year, $25.5MM contract on the heels of a breakout in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. That contract paid him a $2MM signing bonus and $4MM salary in 2022, and he’ll also receive a $1.5MM buyout on what’s technically a 2023 player option.

In essence, Martinez is opting out of a remaining three years and $18MM, although Robert Murray of FanSided tweets that he and the Padres have been discussing a restructured deal in recent days, so it’s possible a reunion could come together before long.

This morning, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported that one idea under consideration in those negotiations would’ve been to remove future opt-out possibilities from Martinez’s deal. The four-year guarantee he signed upon coming over from NPB afforded him opt-out chances after each season, giving the former Ranger hurler plenty of long-term contractual leverage. Now that he’s triggered the first of those clauses, he’d have to renegotiate an entirely new deal — presumably one that pays him more than the $18MM he bypassed this evening.

San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged to Lin that Martinez would prefer to work as a starting pitcher. He started 10 games this year but otherwise came out of the bullpen 37 times. He fared better in relief and Lin writes that some within the organization believe he’s better suited for such a role, but giving Martinez at least the opportunity to crack the rotation could aid San Diego’s efforts to keep him around for the next few seasons. The Friars have Joe Musgrove under contract for five years, but Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are headed into the final seasons of their respective deals. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are now free agents.

Now that he’s officially a free agent, Martinez and his reps at Octagon can field offers from a number of teams. Others could more definitively promise him a rotation opportunity. Martinez posted a 4.30 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate and an elevated 11.7% walk percentage through his ten starts. He had an excellent 2.67 ERA in 54 innings out of the bullpen, although his improved performance in shorter stints wasn’t tied to any kind of huge uptick in his raw stuff. Rather, Martinez was a much better strike-thrower in those situations, only walking 6.4% of opponents.

Martinez joins a deep class of starters capable of stepping into the middle or back of a rotation. Others in a similar tier include his now former teammate Clevinger, Michael Wacha, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana.

Padres Notes: Martinez, Tatis, Soto, Payroll

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The Padres have discussed the possibility of restructuring the contract of Nick Martinez, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. The right-hander has to decide whether to opt out of the final three years and $19.5MM on his deal by this evening, but Lin suggests it looks likely he’ll remain in San Diego either by opting in to his existing deal or reworking his contract.

According to Lin, one idea under consideration is to remove future opt-out possibilities from Martinez’s deal. The four-year guarantee he signed upon coming over from NPB last winter afforded him opt-out chances after each season, giving the former Ranger hurler plenty of long-term contractual leverage. If he’s to forfeit that right moving forward, the Padres would certainly have to increase the guaranteed money on his deal over the coming seasons.

San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged the 32-year-old would prefer to work as a starting pitcher. Martinez started 10 games this year but otherwise came out of the bullpen 37 times. He fared better in relief and Lin writes that some within the organization believe he’s better suited for such a role, but giving Martinez at least the opportunity to crack the rotation could aid San Diego’s efforts to keep him around for the next few seasons. The Friars have Joe Musgrove under contract for five years, but Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are headed into the final seasons of their respective deals. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are now free agents.

On the position player side, Preller provided reporters (including Lin and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN) with an update on Fernando Tatis Jr. Coming off a season lost to wrist/shoulder surgeries and a stunning performance-enhancing drug suspension, the two-time Silver Slugger winner is now something of a Wild Card. He’ll be eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20 next year, and Preller noted he’s expected to resume baseball activities in January after rehabbing from his shoulder procedure. San Diego saw Ha-Seong Kim break out in his second big league season in Tatis’ stead at shortstop, and Preller acknowledged that Tatis could assume more of a multi-positional role upon returning.

He’ll certainly play every day, but it’s not clear he’ll immediately step back in as the shortstop. Lin reports the Friars are open to moving Tatis to second base on occasion, kicking Jake Cronenworth over to first while leaving Kim at shortstop, where he’s a plus defender. The Friars have also toyed with the possibility of deploying Tatis in the outfield, covering for some offensive struggles from center fielder Trent Grisham and/or the possible free agent departure of left fielder Jurickson Profar. Much depends on how the Padres build out their roster over the next few months, of course.

There’s no need for Tatis to see any action in right field, as the Friars have Juan Soto there after their massive deadline splash. He’ll be around for at least another two seasons, as he’s controllable via arbitration through 2024. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes the Friars are likely to try to discuss a longer-term deal with Soto this offseason, although they’ve yet to open those talks. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals that would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history. It’s clear the Padres would have to top that number to get the superstar outfielder’s consideration, but they at least seem likely to open informal discussions. For the moment, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $21.5MM in 2023 if he goes through the arbitration process.

Owner Peter Seidler has expressed a willingness to continue pushing the Friars’ payroll forward, although Acee writes in a separate piece they could be approaching their limit to some extent. Acee suggests they’re likely to open 2023 with a similar payroll as they had this season. San Diego exceeded the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year in 2022, finishing with a CBT figure around $233MM. That’s easily a franchise-high, and Roster Resource projects their CBT number around $216MM for next season. As Acee points out, that leaves them with some room for rotation and left field help, although it raises a question as to how aggressive Preller and his staff might be on the free agent market in particular.

The Opener: Free Agency, MLBTR’s Top 50, Rangers

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As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins

At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.

2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents

Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.

3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation

The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.

Padres Notes: Martinez, Morejon, Suarez, Drury, Myers

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The Padres made it to the NLCS for the first time since 1998, but their season came to a close yesterday when they were knocked off by the Phillies in five games. San Diego now turns its attention to the offseason, where they’ll face a decent amount of possible roster turnover around a star-studded core.

San Diego will see Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, midseason trade pickups Josh Bell and Brandon Drury and relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen all hit free agency. A handful of other players have contractual options that could get them to the open market. Each of Nick Martinez, Robert Suarez and Jurickson Profar has the ability to opt out of their contracts this winter. Wil Myers, meanwhile, has a $20MM team option that is certain to be bought out for $1MM.

Martinez and Suarez were two of San Diego’s higher-leverage relievers down the stretch, raising the possibility of a good portion of the Padres bullpen hitting the open market. As part of a broader look at questions facing the roster (a piece worth a read in full), Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests Martinez is likely to test the open market. The right-hander signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee last winter following a three-season run in Japan, with the contract affording him an opt-out chance after each season. He’s due $19.5MM over the next three years but would be due a $1.5MM buyout if he opts out, meaning he’s left to decide whether he can top a three-year, $18MM guarantee on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a detailed look at the situation last month, noting that Martinez’s strong performance out of the bullpen made that an interesting call. Acee indicates Martinez could prioritize finding a rotation opportunity after working in a swing role this year. The 32-year-old started 10 of his first 12 outings but moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June. At the time of his bullpen transfer, he had a 4.05 ERA with an average 21.9% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 10.4% walk percentage. Following the move to relief, Martinez worked 46 frames of 2.74 ERA ball. He cut his walk rate to 7.4%, but his strikeout rate dipped a percentage point. Despite lacking power, swing-and-miss stuff, Martinez picked up eight saves and served as a generally versatile bullpen piece for manager Bob Melvin.

Martinez’s ostensible desire for a rotation spot shouldn’t inherently rule him out in San Diego. While he was squeezed out of the mix midseason, the Friars went on to deal MacKenzie Gore in the Juan Soto trade. Coupled with the aforementioned free agencies of Clevinger and Manaea, there should be a fair bit of opportunity behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Acee indicates the Padres don’t want to abandon the possibility of using Adrián Morejón as a starter, however. The southpaw, once one of the game’s top pitching prospects, worked out of the bullpen 26 times this year after missing almost all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Morejón isn’t guaranteed a season-opening rotation spot next year, but it seems the Friars are open to stretching him back out after a healthy offseason.

Suarez was a more straightforward power bullpen arm. Also a signee out of NPB last offseason, he went on to make 45 regular season appearances despite a two-month absence with right knee inflammation. He posted a 2.27 ERA across 47 2/3 innings, striking out a whopping 31.9% of opponents. Suarez’s control was erratic, but he brandished an upper-90s fastball and was Melvin’s most trusted bullpen arm by season’s end. It concluded on a sour note, with Suarez surrendering the go-ahead homer to Bryce Harper that brought San Diego’s year to a close, but he pitched out of a number of jams earlier in the postseason. With that kind of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, he’s a lock to bypass the final $5MM on his deal in favor of a $1MM buyout and test free agency.

Things are a bit more settled on the position player side, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff will have to make a few key decisions there as well. First is whether to retain any of the impending free agents. Acee writes that the team is open to bringing back Drury, who hit eight homers in 46 games as a Padre. He only had a .290 on-base percentage during that time, but he’d posted a .274/.335/.520 showing with 20 homers for the Reds over the season’s first few months. Drury can cover any non-shortstop position on the infield and could serve as a corner outfield option with the team potentially losing Profar and Myers.

For his part, Myers indicated that he’s open to a return to San Diego (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). It certainly won’t be on the $20MM option, but Myers will find a big league deal on a lower base salary this offseason. He’s typically provided the Friars with slightly above-average offense, and that was again the case in 2022. Myers hit .261/.315/.398 over 286 plate appearances. He didn’t offer much against right-handed pitching but he popped six homers in 90 plate appearances against southpaws and carries a career .255/.351/.453 line while holding the platoon advantage.

With Bell’s possible departure, the Friars don’t have an obvious in-house first base option, perhaps opening the door for Myers to return at a lower rate. They could certainly dip into the free agent class there, although Acee notes there’s some support in the organization for playing Jake Cronenworth more frequently at first. Cronenworth is an above-average defensive second baseman, making that something of an odd fit, but San Diego has one of the sport’s most talented infields. Ha-Seong Kim proved himself an everyday player filling in for Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop, while Manny Machado is an MVP candidate at the hot corner.

Tatis didn’t play in 2022 because of injuries and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he’ll be back with the club in late April next year. Tatis still has 20 games remaining on his 80-game suspension — he missed 48 regular season contests and 12 playoff games this year — but will be back in the everyday lineup a few weeks into next year. Penciling him back in at shortstop could require kicking Kim to the other side of the second base bag. That’d form one of the sport’s top defensive infields, of particular value with forthcoming limitations on shifting. San Diego has also explored the possibility of playing Tatis in center field while curtailing Trent Grisham’s playing time on the heels of a .184/.284/.341 line. That could again be under consideration, but Tatis has previously expressed his preference for sticking at shortstop.

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