Nick Martinez

Details On Nick Martinez’s New Contract With Padres

By Darragh McDonald | November 22, 2022 at 4:46pm CDT

Nick Martinez opted out of his Padres contract at the end of the offseason but he and the club agreed to a new deal last week. The club made it official today by announcing the deal, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic added some more information about the incentives.

As a recap, it’s technically a three-year, $26MM deal but with a convoluted structure. Martinez will get a $10MM base salary in 2023, which is the straightforward part. After that, the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. If they decline, Martinez will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. Since player options are considered guaranteed, that $16MM option and the $10MM base in 2023 combine to form a $26MM guarantee.

Adding some extra layers of complication are the incentives that Lin outlines, which reflect the uncertain role Martinez will play going forward. He started 2022 in the rotation but eventually got bumped to the bullpen, with his new contract seemingly accounting for a similar trajectory in 2023. Martinez will get paid based on games started, earning an extra $500K at 10, 15, 20 and 25 starts. In terms of relieving, he’ll get $100K at 10 appearances and 20 appearances, $200K at 30, 40, 50 and 60 appearances. For games finished, he will get $200K each at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 finishes.

That’s technically $4.4MM in available incentives, though there’s no way Martinez unlocks all of those. For instance, if he makes 25 starts, he’s unlikely to trigger many of the relief incentives, since a healthy pitcher will make about 32-33 starts over a full season. However, this contract allows Martinez to continue increasing his earnings whether he’s starting or relieving, so long as he’s healthy.

The aforementioned option values can also change, as Lin adds that there are escalators based on Martinez hitting certain innings totals, making the All-Star team or finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. Those details aren’t publicly known at this time.

Going forward, the Friars have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell taking up the first three spots in the rotation. Martinez is a candidate to take one of the spots at the back end, but subsequent moves by the team could push him to the bullpen. Last year, he posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all better out of the bullpen than the rotation.

Padres, Nick Martinez Agree To Three-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | November 16, 2022 at 9:46pm CDT

Nov. 16, 9:46pm: Lin reports the full contract breakdown, which goes well beyond a traditional deal. According to the Athletic, Martinez will make $10MM next season. At the end of the year, the Friars have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM team options for the 2024-25 campaigns — essentially a two-year, $32MM option. If the team declines those options, Martinez will have to decide whether to exercise successive $8MM player options — a two-year, $16MM guarantee — or test free agency next offseason. The deal also contains various yet-unknown incentives and escalators that could boost the price of both his 2023 base salary and those of the option years.

It’s an atypical but not completely unheard of contract structure. The deal resembles one signed by James Paxton with the Red Sox last winter, which gave Boston a two-year club option that, if declined, would leave Paxton to decide on a player option or trip to free agency.

It’s technically a three-year, $26MM guarantee, as previously reported. Player options are treated as guaranteed money, so that $16MM plus his $10MM base salary for next year counts as the $26MM total. For luxury tax purposes, it’s calculated as an $8.67MM average annual value. However, if the Padres were to exercise their option, Martinez would be paid $42MM over the next three years (plus any incentives he reaches). Depending on the option decisions, he could reach free agency again next offseason having collected $10MM or play things out in San Diego for three years at either $26MM or $42MM.

Nov. 16, 7:43am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets the deal is a three-year, $26MM contract with incentives to boost that base-level guarantee.

Nov. 15: The Padres are in agreement with free agent righty Nick Martinez, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link) were first to report the sides were making progress on a new contract. Martinez, an Octagon client, had opted out of the final three years on his previous deal with San Diego last week. It’s a new three-year deal for Martinez, Lin reports (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, he’s expected to top the $18MM he left on the table when he triggered his opt-out provision.

The 32-year-old will stick with the organization that signed him to a four-year guarantee last offseason. That deal, a surprisingly strong sum for a player who’d spent the prior three seasons in Japan, reunited the former Ranger hurler with longtime Texas executive A.J. Preller, who’s running baseball operations in San Diego.

Preller and his staff’s affinity for Martinez paid off, as the Fordham product acclimated well in his return to the big leagues. He began the year in the rotation, starting 10 of 12 appearances through the middle of June. He posted a solid 4.03 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, striking out a roughly average 21.9% of opposing hitters. Martinez walked batters at a slightly elevated 10.4% clip but was a generally solid back-of-the-rotation stabilizer.

The Friars nevertheless elected to kick Martinez to the bullpen at that point, preferring to rely on a rotation of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger and MacKenzie Gore. Even after Gore was injured and subsequently traded to the Nationals, San Diego kept Martinez in relief. That’s in large part due to his effectiveness, as he was particularly valuable for the club working in shorter stints. In 46 innings across 35 appearances from that point forward, he posted a 2.74 ERA while holding opponents to a putrid .211/.282/.333 line in 188 plate appearances.

Dominant as that showing was, Martinez didn’t experience the same kind of boost most pitchers do upon working in shorter stints. His strikeout rate actually dipped relative to his early-season mark, falling to 20.2%. His velocity did jump, but the bigger change in his profile was improved control. Martinez only walked 7.4% of batters faced upon a full-time conversion to relief; he also induced grounders on almost half the batted balls he allowed during that stretch.

Altogether, Martinez’s return season in the big leagues consisted of 106 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fared better in the bullpen but had success in both roles. Heading into his age-32 campaign, he and his representatives were faced with one of the tougher opt-out decisions of the winter. The three remaining years on his deal contained a total of $19.5MM in guaranteed money while affording him the chance to opt out after each season. He chose to do so after 2022, collecting a $1.5MM buyout while giving him the chance to explore offers from other teams.

Even as he hit the market, Martinez and the Padres seemed to have mutual interest in a reunion from the beginning. Perhaps the bigger potential stumbling block than financial terms was the hurler’s desire to get a full-time rotation opportunity. Preller confirmed at last week’s GM Meetings that Martinez preferred to be a starter, but he stopped short of publicly committing him a rotation spot. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote at the time some in the organization believed Martinez was a better fit for relief work, but it seems likely the Friars will at least give him a chance to compete for a starting job next spring.

The enviable rotation depth San Diego possessed six months ago is now far thinner. Gore was traded, while Manaea and Clevinger struggled down the stretch and look likely to depart via free agency. Musgrove signed a five-year extension and is locked in atop the rotation for the future. Darvish and Snell are each under contract for one more season and presently look as if they’ll occupy the second and third spots, although Preller’s affinity for bold roster shake-ups at least raises the possibility one of those two could be dealt. Even if they return, Martinez would join Adrián Morejón, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr among the internal candidates for a back-of-the-rotation spot. Further bolstering the starting staff figures to be a priority for Preller and his group, even if they plan to legitimately consider Martinez for one such role.

Financial terms of the agreement are not yet clear. The Friars presently have around $204MM in estimated commitments for 2023, not including Martinez, per Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax ledger is around $225MM, not far shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. It looks likely the Friars will exceed the CBT for a third straight season in 2023 — particularly since the rotation, first base and left field remain areas in question for the win-now club in the coming months.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nick Martinez Opts Out Of Padres Contract

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | November 10, 2022 at 4:49pm CDT

Right-hander Nick Martinez has exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres and is now a free agent, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune (Twitter link). Martinez originally signed a four-year, $25.5MM contract on the heels of a breakout in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. That contract paid him a $2MM signing bonus and $4MM salary in 2022, and he’ll also receive a $1.5MM buyout on what’s technically a 2023 player option.

In essence, Martinez is opting out of a remaining three years and $18MM, although Robert Murray of FanSided tweets that he and the Padres have been discussing a restructured deal in recent days, so it’s possible a reunion could come together before long.

This morning, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported that one idea under consideration in those negotiations would’ve been to remove future opt-out possibilities from Martinez’s deal. The four-year guarantee he signed upon coming over from NPB afforded him opt-out chances after each season, giving the former Ranger hurler plenty of long-term contractual leverage. Now that he’s triggered the first of those clauses, he’d have to renegotiate an entirely new deal — presumably one that pays him more than the $18MM he bypassed this evening.

San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged to Lin that Martinez would prefer to work as a starting pitcher. He started 10 games this year but otherwise came out of the bullpen 37 times. He fared better in relief and Lin writes that some within the organization believe he’s better suited for such a role, but giving Martinez at least the opportunity to crack the rotation could aid San Diego’s efforts to keep him around for the next few seasons. The Friars have Joe Musgrove under contract for five years, but Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are headed into the final seasons of their respective deals. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are now free agents.

Now that he’s officially a free agent, Martinez and his reps at Octagon can field offers from a number of teams. Others could more definitively promise him a rotation opportunity. Martinez posted a 4.30 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate and an elevated 11.7% walk percentage through his ten starts. He had an excellent 2.67 ERA in 54 innings out of the bullpen, although his improved performance in shorter stints wasn’t tied to any kind of huge uptick in his raw stuff. Rather, Martinez was a much better strike-thrower in those situations, only walking 6.4% of opponents.

Martinez joins a deep class of starters capable of stepping into the middle or back of a rotation. Others in a similar tier include his now former teammate Clevinger, Michael Wacha, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana.

Padres Notes: Martinez, Tatis, Soto, Payroll

By Anthony Franco | November 10, 2022 at 12:15pm CDT

The Padres have discussed the possibility of restructuring the contract of Nick Martinez, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. The right-hander has to decide whether to opt out of the final three years and $19.5MM on his deal by this evening, but Lin suggests it looks likely he’ll remain in San Diego either by opting in to his existing deal or reworking his contract.

According to Lin, one idea under consideration is to remove future opt-out possibilities from Martinez’s deal. The four-year guarantee he signed upon coming over from NPB last winter afforded him opt-out chances after each season, giving the former Ranger hurler plenty of long-term contractual leverage. If he’s to forfeit that right moving forward, the Padres would certainly have to increase the guaranteed money on his deal over the coming seasons.

San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acknowledged the 32-year-old would prefer to work as a starting pitcher. Martinez started 10 games this year but otherwise came out of the bullpen 37 times. He fared better in relief and Lin writes that some within the organization believe he’s better suited for such a role, but giving Martinez at least the opportunity to crack the rotation could aid San Diego’s efforts to keep him around for the next few seasons. The Friars have Joe Musgrove under contract for five years, but Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are headed into the final seasons of their respective deals. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are now free agents.

On the position player side, Preller provided reporters (including Lin and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN) with an update on Fernando Tatis Jr. Coming off a season lost to wrist/shoulder surgeries and a stunning performance-enhancing drug suspension, the two-time Silver Slugger winner is now something of a Wild Card. He’ll be eligible to return from his PED suspension on April 20 next year, and Preller noted he’s expected to resume baseball activities in January after rehabbing from his shoulder procedure. San Diego saw Ha-Seong Kim break out in his second big league season in Tatis’ stead at shortstop, and Preller acknowledged that Tatis could assume more of a multi-positional role upon returning.

He’ll certainly play every day, but it’s not clear he’ll immediately step back in as the shortstop. Lin reports the Friars are open to moving Tatis to second base on occasion, kicking Jake Cronenworth over to first while leaving Kim at shortstop, where he’s a plus defender. The Friars have also toyed with the possibility of deploying Tatis in the outfield, covering for some offensive struggles from center fielder Trent Grisham and/or the possible free agent departure of left fielder Jurickson Profar. Much depends on how the Padres build out their roster over the next few months, of course.

There’s no need for Tatis to see any action in right field, as the Friars have Juan Soto there after their massive deadline splash. He’ll be around for at least another two seasons, as he’s controllable via arbitration through 2024. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes the Friars are likely to try to discuss a longer-term deal with Soto this offseason, although they’ve yet to open those talks. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals that would’ve been the largest contract in MLB history. It’s clear the Padres would have to top that number to get the superstar outfielder’s consideration, but they at least seem likely to open informal discussions. For the moment, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $21.5MM in 2023 if he goes through the arbitration process.

Owner Peter Seidler has expressed a willingness to continue pushing the Friars’ payroll forward, although Acee writes in a separate piece they could be approaching their limit to some extent. Acee suggests they’re likely to open 2023 with a similar payroll as they had this season. San Diego exceeded the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year in 2022, finishing with a CBT figure around $233MM. That’s easily a franchise-high, and Roster Resource projects their CBT number around $216MM for next season. As Acee points out, that leaves them with some room for rotation and left field help, although it raises a question as to how aggressive Preller and his staff might be on the free agent market in particular.

The Opener: Free Agency, MLBTR’s Top 50, Rangers

By Nick Deeds | November 10, 2022 at 9:34am CDT

As the baseball world prepares for the offseason to kick into a higher gear this evening, here are three things to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. The Next Stage Of The Offseason Begins

At 4 PM CDT today, free agency will begin in earnest. Most importantly, that time is when free agents will be free to negotiate and sign new contracts with other clubs. It also serves as the deadline for teams to extend their outgoing players a Qualifying Offer, and for teams and players alike to make the few options decisions that remain undecided, such as those of Nick Martinez, who Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes may renegotiate his contract with San Diego, and Justin Turner. News should be expected to trickle in throughout the day leading up to 4 PM CDT, as players and teams make their final decisions and plans before the next stage of the offseason begins.

2. MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents

Once that QO/option deadline passes, we at MLB Trade Rumors will put the finishes touches on our annual Top 50 Free Agents And Predictions post. Some outlets have already published theirs, but we like to wait until the QO decisions have been revealed because they can have such a significant impact on a free agent’s market. This makes us a little bit late to the party but allows us to provide a bit more analysis and (hopefully) more accuracy. For instance, one year ago, we predicted that Brandon Belt would accept the QO and returns to the Giants, which eventually came to pass. For most borderline QO candidates, we have seperate predictions based on whether they get the offer or not. It’s our biggest post of the year and you should keep an eye out for it later today! Shortly after that comes out, we will also launch our annual prediction contest, where you can do your best to try and predict the unpredictable offseason.

3. Rangers Look To Fortify Rotation

The Rangers are looking to improve after a big offseason last year resulted in a record of 68-94 and a fourth place finish in the AL West in 2022, and they have no bigger need than the rotation, where they face plenty of questions as to who will slot in both in front of and behind Jon Gray. Texas shored up the back of their rotation yesterday evening in a trade with the Braves for Jake Odorizzi, but GM Chris Young will need to add more to his rotation in order to compete in 2023. The Rangers have been previously connected to lefty ace Carlos Rodon, and reports last night indicated that the club not only plans on extending Martin Perez a Qualifying Offer by today’s deadline, but is in negotiations with his camp on a multiyear deal as well. Should the Rangers be successful in their pursuits, a rotation of Rodon, Perez, Gray, Odorizzi, and a youngster such as Dane Dunning or Spencer Howard would be a significant improvement over 2022, though they’d still need to address their outfield situation to truly position themselves as contenders for 2023.

Padres Notes: Martinez, Morejon, Suarez, Drury, Myers

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2022 at 10:24pm CDT

The Padres made it to the NLCS for the first time since 1998, but their season came to a close yesterday when they were knocked off by the Phillies in five games. San Diego now turns its attention to the offseason, where they’ll face a decent amount of possible roster turnover around a star-studded core.

San Diego will see Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, midseason trade pickups Josh Bell and Brandon Drury and relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen all hit free agency. A handful of other players have contractual options that could get them to the open market. Each of Nick Martinez, Robert Suarez and Jurickson Profar has the ability to opt out of their contracts this winter. Wil Myers, meanwhile, has a $20MM team option that is certain to be bought out for $1MM.

Martinez and Suarez were two of San Diego’s higher-leverage relievers down the stretch, raising the possibility of a good portion of the Padres bullpen hitting the open market. As part of a broader look at questions facing the roster (a piece worth a read in full), Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests Martinez is likely to test the open market. The right-hander signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee last winter following a three-season run in Japan, with the contract affording him an opt-out chance after each season. He’s due $19.5MM over the next three years but would be due a $1.5MM buyout if he opts out, meaning he’s left to decide whether he can top a three-year, $18MM guarantee on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a detailed look at the situation last month, noting that Martinez’s strong performance out of the bullpen made that an interesting call. Acee indicates Martinez could prioritize finding a rotation opportunity after working in a swing role this year. The 32-year-old started 10 of his first 12 outings but moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June. At the time of his bullpen transfer, he had a 4.05 ERA with an average 21.9% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 10.4% walk percentage. Following the move to relief, Martinez worked 46 frames of 2.74 ERA ball. He cut his walk rate to 7.4%, but his strikeout rate dipped a percentage point. Despite lacking power, swing-and-miss stuff, Martinez picked up eight saves and served as a generally versatile bullpen piece for manager Bob Melvin.

Martinez’s ostensible desire for a rotation spot shouldn’t inherently rule him out in San Diego. While he was squeezed out of the mix midseason, the Friars went on to deal MacKenzie Gore in the Juan Soto trade. Coupled with the aforementioned free agencies of Clevinger and Manaea, there should be a fair bit of opportunity behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Acee indicates the Padres don’t want to abandon the possibility of using Adrián Morejón as a starter, however. The southpaw, once one of the game’s top pitching prospects, worked out of the bullpen 26 times this year after missing almost all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Morejón isn’t guaranteed a season-opening rotation spot next year, but it seems the Friars are open to stretching him back out after a healthy offseason.

Suarez was a more straightforward power bullpen arm. Also a signee out of NPB last offseason, he went on to make 45 regular season appearances despite a two-month absence with right knee inflammation. He posted a 2.27 ERA across 47 2/3 innings, striking out a whopping 31.9% of opponents. Suarez’s control was erratic, but he brandished an upper-90s fastball and was Melvin’s most trusted bullpen arm by season’s end. It concluded on a sour note, with Suarez surrendering the go-ahead homer to Bryce Harper that brought San Diego’s year to a close, but he pitched out of a number of jams earlier in the postseason. With that kind of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, he’s a lock to bypass the final $5MM on his deal in favor of a $1MM buyout and test free agency.

Things are a bit more settled on the position player side, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff will have to make a few key decisions there as well. First is whether to retain any of the impending free agents. Acee writes that the team is open to bringing back Drury, who hit eight homers in 46 games as a Padre. He only had a .290 on-base percentage during that time, but he’d posted a .274/.335/.520 showing with 20 homers for the Reds over the season’s first few months. Drury can cover any non-shortstop position on the infield and could serve as a corner outfield option with the team potentially losing Profar and Myers.

For his part, Myers indicated that he’s open to a return to San Diego (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). It certainly won’t be on the $20MM option, but Myers will find a big league deal on a lower base salary this offseason. He’s typically provided the Friars with slightly above-average offense, and that was again the case in 2022. Myers hit .261/.315/.398 over 286 plate appearances. He didn’t offer much against right-handed pitching but he popped six homers in 90 plate appearances against southpaws and carries a career .255/.351/.453 line while holding the platoon advantage.

With Bell’s possible departure, the Friars don’t have an obvious in-house first base option, perhaps opening the door for Myers to return at a lower rate. They could certainly dip into the free agent class there, although Acee notes there’s some support in the organization for playing Jake Cronenworth more frequently at first. Cronenworth is an above-average defensive second baseman, making that something of an odd fit, but San Diego has one of the sport’s most talented infields. Ha-Seong Kim proved himself an everyday player filling in for Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop, while Manny Machado is an MVP candidate at the hot corner.

Tatis didn’t play in 2022 because of injuries and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he’ll be back with the club in late April next year. Tatis still has 20 games remaining on his 80-game suspension — he missed 48 regular season contests and 12 playoff games this year — but will be back in the everyday lineup a few weeks into next year. Penciling him back in at shortstop could require kicking Kim to the other side of the second base bag. That’d form one of the sport’s top defensive infields, of particular value with forthcoming limitations on shifting. San Diego has also explored the possibility of playing Tatis in center field while curtailing Trent Grisham’s playing time on the heels of a .184/.284/.341 line. That could again be under consideration, but Tatis has previously expressed his preference for sticking at shortstop.

Nick Martinez’s Looming Opt-Out Decision

By Steve Adams | September 21, 2022 at 12:02pm CDT

When the 2021-22 offseason commenced, Nick Martinez wasn’t even on the radar for most MLB fans. The right-hander had stumbled through an uninspiring four-year run with the Rangers from 2014-17, and while a big showing in Japan put him back on the radar of MLB clubs, it was still a shock to see him sign the 14th-largest contract of any pitcher last offseason. Martinez not only secured an eye-opening four-year term and $25.5MM guarantee from the Padres — he was also promised the opportunity to opt out of his contract after each season of the deal.

It’s an upside-laden contract for the player. Annual opt-outs of that nature tend to go to coveted free agents settling for shorter-term deals than they might otherwise prefer (e.g. Carlos Correa in Minnesota). It’s not an entirely new concept — Scott Kazmir got that treatment from the Dodgers as far back as 2015 when signing his three-year, $48MM deal — and it’s one that Padres president of baseball ops has now used to lure in a pair of players he played a role in signing and developing during his time with Texas; Jurickson Profar’s three-year, $21MM contract also contained an opt-out after each of the first two seasons.

Martinez’s four-year deal pays him a $2MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2022. All three of his player options are valued at $6.5MM, and he’d receive a $1.5MM buyout if he decided to turn an option down and test free agency. In other words, Martinez’s upcoming option effectively is a net $18MM decision. The signing bonus, 2022 salary and option buyout are all but banked. The question for him is one of whether he can top $18MM in free agency this winter.

It’s fair to question whether that can be called a given. On the surface, Martinez’s 3.22 ERA in 100 1/3 innings has to be considered a roaring success. He entered the 2022 season with a career 4.77 ERA in 415 1/3 innings, all coming in that prior run with the Rangers — one that concluded with consecutive ERAs north of 5.50.

At the same time, Martinez hasn’t exactly dominated opponents. His 20.9% strikeout rate is below the 22.3% league average, while his 8.6% walk rate is ever so slightly higher than the 8.2% league average. Martinez induces grounders at an above-average clip (46.7% compared to 42.2%) but also surrenders home runs more frequently than the average pitcher (1.25 HR/9 compared to 1.10 HR/9).

The role — or rather, the roles — that Martinez has filled this year don’t necessarily help his cause, either. He opened the year as the Padres’ fifth starter but was part of a six-man rotation by May and was moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June, after 10 solid but unspectacular starts (52 1/3 innings, 4.30 ERA, 20.4 K%, 11.7 BB%).

In the bullpen, things have gone better. Martinez has tallied 48 1/3 innings in relief and worked to a 2.05 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate in the ’pen is only moderately higher than it was out of the rotation, but to his credit, Martinez’s 4.7% walk rate as a reliever is miles better than it was coming out of the rotation. (Whether teams deem that to be sustainable is another open question.) He’s picked up eight saves and six holds for the Friars, but early on, the majority of his work came in lower-leverage situations. Even three of those eight saves were of the three-inning variety in long relief. He’s been used in later, higher-leverage spots as the summer has worn on, but Martinez will likely finish the season having spent only a couple months working in the critical leverage spots for which teams tend to pay top dollar.

There are other elements to consider, too. Martinez rates well in terms of his overall average exit velocity, yielding just an 86.6 mph average to his opponents. That checks into the 87th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also boasts above-average spin on his fastball and curveball alike, and Martinez has excelled at inducing chases on pitches off the plate. However, Martinez’s 37.2% hard-hit rate is barely better than the league-average, and the 8.2% barrel rate he’s yielded is well shy of league average (32nd percentile). Basically, when he does allow contact, he’s been much more prone to loud contact than one would expect when looking the mean results.

Martinez’s case is an interesting one. He didn’t thrive in a rotation role, even when facing hitters the first time through the order (.282/.311/.447). As is typically the case, those numbers worsened the second and third time he faced an opponent in a game. He’s been excellent the first trip through the lineup as a reliever, however (.201/.261/.289), even though he didn’t completely overhaul his pitch arsenal when shifting to bullpen work. At a time when relievers and even some starters are gravitating toward focusing on two plus pitches, Martinez’s approach is uncommon: he’s the rare reliever who deploys a five-pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, sinker, curve, changeup).

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote a few weeks ago that Martinez appears unlikely to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, as it’s a stretch to envision him topping that remaining guarantee. There’s merit to that line of thinking. Martinez was unexciting in a brief run as a starter, has impressed but not dominated as a reliever, and doesn’t have the type of elite velocity, spin rate or whiff rate that serve as the portent to a breakout.

On the spectrum of outcomes, his 2022 season hasn’t been a best-case scenario but has been better than average. A 90th percentile outcome or better might have seen Martinez play a prominent role and pitch toward the top of the San Diego rotation; giving 10 serviceable starts before moving to the ’pen and slowly climbing into a leverage role has to rank somewhere in the 60th to 75th percentile of outcomes. The Padres are surely happy with the year-one results.

Martinez’s decision is made difficult because the very nature of the contract he signed sat outside the norms of conventional contract structures for typical MLB free agents. Generally speaking, free agents very rarely sign three- and four-year deals with average annual values in the $6-7MM range. Even back-end starters will crack the $8-10MM range on one- and two-year deals. It’s not uncommon to see a setup reliever sign a multi-year deal in this AAV range, but most recent examples have been of the two-year variety.

If Martinez hopes to beat the net $18MM on his contract, he’d need a team to value him in the $10MM range over a two-year span or an $8-9MM range over a three-year span. In the case of the former, that’d likely mean a team believing he can function as a starter on a full-time basis. The latter structure is typically reserved for some of the market’s most highly desirable relievers (e.g. Kendall Graveman’s three-year deal with the White Sox, Joe Kelly’s three-year deal with the Dodgers). It’s hard to include Martinez in that same category.

Still, there’s a logical disconnect between the idea that the market produced a $25.5MM guarantee for Martinez a year ago, when he was a total wild card, but might not produce better than an $18MM guarantee now that he’s proven himself capable of providing legitimate value to a contending MLB club. The source of that disconnect may simply be the allure of the unknown. There may yet be room for Martinez to take his game to another level, but some of the perceived upside stemming from the 1.60 ERA, 25% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate he posted in his final NPB campaign has perhaps dwindled. That’s not to say he’s not a valuable big league pitcher — he certainly has been — but now that he’s more of an established commodity, that same upside might not be baked into a potential new contract.

Suffice it to say, Martinez’s opt-out looks like something of a borderline case. He can fill multiple roles, has shined out of the ’pen, held his own in the rotation but hasn’t dominated opponents at any step along the way. He’d need to be confident teams will view him as at least $9-10MM per year pitcher in order to opt out, because even though a $7-8MM AAV over a three-year term would be a win for him, that’s tougher to come by when you’re selling your age-32 through age-34 seasons.

If he sticks with the Padres, they’ll be happy to have him. Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are free agents at season’s end, and the Friars traded MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Their 2023 rotation depth is not as sound as this year’s was and is. In the bullpen, each of Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen can become a free agent. Martinez provides some valuable substance to both groups. The $18MM question is whether that value is significant enough that he’ll again test his luck on the open market.

We can close this one out with a poll…

Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

By Anthony Franco | August 30, 2022 at 11:59pm CDT

With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox SS (can opt out of final three years and $60MM)

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

Justin Verlander, Astros RHP ($25MM option for 2023)

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

Carlos Rodón, Giants LHP ($22.5MM option for 2023)

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

Anthony Rizzo, Yankees 1B ($16MM option for 2023)

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

Jurickson Profar, Padres LF ($8.5MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

Taijuan Walker, Mets RHP ($6MM option, $3MM buyout)

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

Jake Odorizzi, Braves RHP ($12.5MM option, $6.25MM buyout)

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

Jonathan Schoop, Tigers 2B ($7.5MM option)

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

Charlie Blackmon, Rockies DH/RF ($12MM option)

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

Andrew Chafin, Tigers LHP ($6.5MM option)

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

Robert Suárez, Padres RHP ($5MM option, $1MM buyout)

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

NL Notes: Castillo, Moose, Solano, Matz, Longoria, Padres

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2022 at 9:45pm CDT

Luis Castillo is drawing loads of attention as the trade deadline nears, and according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds’ focus seems to be on getting young talent for Castillo rather than using him as an avenue to cut payroll. The idea of having a rival team take on Mike Moustakas’ contract as part of a Castillo deal hasn’t come up in recent negotiations, Nightengale writes, though the Reds were open to such a concept in other talks last year. However, as Cincinnati has moved some salaries off the books in subsequent deals, payroll cuts no longer seem to be as big a priority.

Castillo isn’t the only trade chip on the roster, as the Reds put “a high asking price” on infielder Donovan Solano in recent talks with an unknown club. Solano has hit an impressive .313/.371/.450 in 89 plate appearances this season, trying to make up for lost time after a hamstring injury delayed his 2022 debut until June 22. Cincinnati inked Solano to a one-year, $4.5MM deal in March, so he would be a pure rental for any club looking to add a versatile infielder and veteran right-handed bat to the mix.

Padres Activate Blake Snell From Injured List

By Steve Adams | May 18, 2022 at 3:44pm CDT

TODAY: As expected, Snell was activated from the IL. To create roster space, the Padres also announced that left-hander Ray Kerr was optioned to Triple-A.

MAY 16: The Padres have been without lefty Blake Snell all season due to an adductor strain, but the 2018 AL Cy Young winner is set to make his 2022 debut on Wednesday, acting manager Ryan Christenson told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). San Diego will roll out Mike Clevinger, Snell and Yu Darvish this Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Snell’s return will temporarily push young lefty MacKenzie Gore into the bullpen, though it seems that’ll simply amount to skipping his turn in the rotation just once before he’s considered for another start. The Friars are lined up for a daunting stretch of 40 games in 42 days, Acee points out.

Snell’s return ought to provide a boost to a San Diego staff that’s already been among the better units in the game. Padres starters are tied with the Twins for the game’s ninth-best ERA at 3.50, which is a dead-on match for their seventh-ranked 3.50 FIP. They’re also fourth in MLB with a 25% strikeout rate and have been a respectable, albeit middle-of-the-pack group in terms of walk rate, ranking 15th with a 7.8% mark.

Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t go as hoped. The now-29-year-old southpaw turned in a 4.20 ERA over the life of 128 2/3 innings and also had a couple of stints on the injured list — including a late-September stay for the same adductor issue that plagued him earlier this year.

However, while Snell’s composite numbers may not stand out, the lefty was back to his Cy Young-caliber form down the stretch in 2021. Snell scrapped his once-dominant changeup — which had been getting hammered last year — on Aug. 3 and ramped up his usage of sliders and four-seamers. The result was a dominant 1.83 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate with a solid 8.5% walk rate — all marks that dwarfed his numbers through the end of July (5.44 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate). If that’s the version of Snell the Padres welcome back this week, an already-strong rotation could develop into a powerhouse.

A short-term shift to the ’pen for Gore may frustrate some fans after the former No. 3 overall pick has debuted with a 2.42 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate through his first 26 innings, but it ostensibly appears to be little more than workload management. Gore pitched just 50 1/3 innings of actual game activity last year, struggling to the point that the Padres sent him to their Spring Training facility in mid-June to sort out his mechanics. He was out of games until the middle of August, when he returned to the Padres’ Rookie-ball affiliate and then worked his way back up to Double-A.

There’s been no issue for Gore thus far in 2022. Once lauded as the game’s top pitching prospect, the 23-year-old has made good on that billing both in Triple-A (five shutout innings, seven strikeouts, no walks) and in the Majors (2.42 ERA, 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 26 frames). The Padres could take some steps to occasional measures such as this one to prevent too stark an innings increase, but so long as Gore continues to pitch with this level of effectiveness, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the rotation.

San Diego has been deploying a six-man rotation thus far, with Joe Musgrove, Darvish, Sean Manaea, Gore, Clevinger and offseason acquisition Nick Martinez all starting games. Acee tweeted last week that the team “tentatively” planned to continue a six-man rotation following the return of Snell, who’d effectively push Martinez to the bullpen.

That’s notable in and of itself, as Martinez signed a surprising four-year, $25.5MM contract with the Padres this winter on the heels of an outstanding run in Japan. The former Rangers righty not only landed that unexpected guarantee but secured opt-out clauses after each year of the contract. That essentially allows him to become a free agent if he’s able to approximate his NPB excellence in MLB but gives him a hearty sum on which to fall back if he struggles in his return to North American ball. Martinez tossed 378 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball in three seasons overseas, including a dominant 1.60 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in 140 innings with the SoftBank Hawks last year.

So far in 2022, however, Martinez has had his share of tough outings. He’s pitched 30 2/3 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA, but his 11.5% walk rate and 1.76 HR/9 mark are both well worse than the league average. He’s posted solid strikeout and ground-ball rates (23.1% and 46.4%, respectively), but he’ll need to curb the free passes and the long balls if he’s to fully establish himself.

Even if Martinez is bullpen-bound for the time being, that shouldn’t be expected to close the book on him as a starter. The Padres made a notable investment in him this winter even amid luxury-tax concerns, and it’s of course likely that other injuries on the pitching staff will pop up and give Martinez further opportunities to start some games. The number of times he takes the hill to start a game is certainly worth monitoring, though; Martinez’s 2023, 2024 and 2025 salaries would all increase by $1MM if he makes 20 starts.

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