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Season Cancellation Would Not Delay Luhnow, Hinch Reinstatement

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Former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch will not serve any suspension time beyond 2020, regardless of whether a season is played, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. Both were fired by the Houston organization after MLB issued year-long bans arising out of the sign-stealing scandal of the 2017 Astros.

Per the report, this determination was made “because the suspensions are tied to the end of the 2020 postseason rather than a specific number of games.” That’s not necessarily a compelling technical reading — if that’s even the right way to address the matter. Regardless, it does seem consistent in substance with the reported handling of player suspensions.

If indeed this is how commissioner Rob Manfred handles things, then the path will be clear for both Luhnow and Hinch to return later this year — as had been the case before the surprise coronavirus shutdown.Presumably, the same determination will hold for former Astros bench coach and Red Sox manager Alex Cora, if he ends up being suspended.

Whether or not that comes to pass will obviously depend upon whether some team takes a chance. When we polled MLBTR readers in early February, most anticipated that Luhnow would never return to a GM seat but that Hinch would again be tasked with leading a dugout. Hinch was certainly a more broadly popular figure and has struck a much more conciliatory tone since the sign-stealing scandal broke. On the other hand, he was also in the dugout while the illicit activity occurred and did not avail himself of the many avenues to halt it. It is less clear to what extent Luhnow was fully aware of the cheating scheme.

Tigers Release, Re-Sign Jordy Mercer, Zack Godley

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In advance of the MLB-wide roster freeze, the Tigers released and re-signed veterans Jordy Mercer and Zack Godley, per Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. It was a procedural move, per Chris McCoskey of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter), no doubt relating to their opt-out clauses. Both players remain with the organization on minor-league pacts.

*The original version of this post misinterpreted the underlying story and failed to recognize that both players had been re-signed. We regret the error.

Mercer, the long-time Pirates shortstop, spent the 2019 season with the Detroit organization and returned as a non-roster invitee in the past offseason. He missed a lot of time due to injury but turned in a sturdy .270/.310/.438 batting line when healthy. Mercer has hit well thus far in camp and would appear to be a solidifying presence in a largely uncertain infield mix.

As for Godley, 29, he handed out eight walks in 4 1/3 innings of spring action. But he’ll still have a shot at earning a bounceback opportunity in Detroit. Godley emerged as a quality rotation piece in 2017 with the Diamondbacks but took a step back in the ensuing season and struggled mightily last year. His deal includes a $1.5MM salary and $1.5MM in possible incentives, if he can earn his way to the majors.

Reds Release Junichi Tazawa, Chris Volstad, Felix Jorge

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The Reds recently released a trio of hurlers, Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America reports. Righties Junichi Tazawa, Chris Volstad, and Felix Jorge were all cut loose before the coronavirus-related roster freeze went into effect.

Each of these pitchers had joined the Cincinnati organization on minor-league deals. It was unlikely in each case that they’d earn a roster spot out of camp.

Tazawa, once a highly productive reliever, failed to crack the majors last year. The nine-year MLB veteran came to the Reds late last season after he was cut free from the Cubs. He had received one spring outing but obviously didn’t show enough to impress the Reds’ brass.

Volstad is another 33-year-old righty with significant MLB action under his belt. He was looking for a comeback after not appearing in the 2019 season. Volstad carries a 5.00 ERA in 772 1/3 career MLB innings.

The 26-year-old Jorge has only minimal experience at the game’s highest level. He has battled health issues over the past two campaigns. Back in 2017, the last time he completed a substantial number of innings, he worked to a 3.68 ERA in 149 upper-minors innings while also earning a brief call-up.

Latest News & Notes On Coronavirus & Baseball

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We’re all pining for the return of baseball. It’d be nice to watch, especially in these trying times. More than anything, though, the start of play would mean that we’ve achieved some amount of control over the spread of the coronavirus — and, perhaps, that there’d be an end in sight to the suffering it has wrought. In the meantime, we join all those around the world in honoring the brave health care professionals, first responders, logistical employees, and others who are doing everything they can to sustain us.

  • The unfolding tragedy is particularly acute in New York, the present American epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis. Baseball is an afterthought. Any hope of playing it will depend upon addressing the broader public health need, as Yankees reliever Zack Britton acknowledges (via MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, on Twitter). “At the end of the day,” he says of talk regarding the scheduling of the 2020 season, “it doesn’t matter until the virus gets under control and cities and people are able just to go back to everyday life, let alone being able to go and watch baseball or us play baseball.” Getting to a point where the spread is manageable seems an obvious prerequisite for sports, even if played without fans. But the league and union are rightly thinking ahead and trying to plan to move back online as soon as possible. Britton says the sides have already begun considering potential neutral sites to stage games, potentially providing alternative venues that could be utilized as needed. The unnamed locations would have the sorts of playing, lodging, and other facilities required to make play possible.
  • We’ve seen many MLB players pitch in financially and otherwise. They’re also quite understandably thinking of the needs of their families. Veteran Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has headed back to his native Japan with his wife and child while waiting for baseball to resume, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reports. Tanaka says he felt in “danger” in Florida, where the virus is a growing threat. He also chose against returning to the home he maintains in New York. (There is at least a touch of baseball-specific news on the Yankees’ pitching staff, as we covered here yesterday.)
  • Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has revealed that one employee of the team has tested positive for COVID-19, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. The unnamed employee was not on hand at the club’s spring facility during camp; rather, he or she was stationed in St. Louis. MLBTR extends its best wishes for a quick and full recovery. Fortunately, that seems to be just what occurred for legendary former Cardinals and Angels outfielder Jim Edmonds. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes, Edmonds ended up in the hospital for pneumonia and ultimately tested positive for COVID-19. But he’s thankfully already on the mend.
  • It’s always worth highlighting the good acts that take place in times of crisis. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, the Rays have initiated some assistance to local charity Feeding Tampa Bay, promising $100K and another $150K in matching funds to help spur a food drive. The Feeding Tampa Bay executive director calls it a “tremendous gift.” Meanwhile Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy is the latest veteran player to make a sizable financial commitment. He’s giving $100K to a “family assistance fund” to assist minor-leaguers who support children or other family members. More on that initiative here.

Prospect Faceoff: Franco v. Lux

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Yesterday’s prospect faceoff post featured two fairly similar youngsters: upper-level left-handed hurlers MacKenzie Gore and Jesus Luzardo. Today, we’ll examine another duo with a lot of commonalities … but they won’t be quite so closely situated.

Glance up at the top ten list of most prospect rankings and you’ll see two middle infielders: Wander Franco of the Rays and Gavin Lux of the Dodgers. MLB.com and Fangraphs rank them 1-2. They share many attributes beyond position and lofty prospect standing. But these two players also present completely different propositions.

Franco is more or less universally considered the game’s very best prospect. But he also just turned 19 on March 1st and hasn’t yet played above the High-A level. In his two A-ball stops last year, the switch-hitter carried a collective .327/.398/.487 batting line with nine long balls over 495 plate appearances. He swiped 18 bags but was also gunned down 14 times.

This is not a complete product. There are some questions as to whether Franco will stick at shortstop, though he has thus far proven capable. More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that his power is still more a projection than a present skill. But the scouts see the potential in his actions at the plate. And Franco seems quite likely to maximize whatever raw power he ends up with given his exceptional plate discipline and contact ability. Franco recorded 56 walks against just 35 strikeouts last year while driving the ball around the yard. Though he hardly carries a big frame, Franco is said to carry immense wrist strength and bat speed. And his command of the zone will make him awfully tough to pitch to.

Do you feel like you need some precedent to believe a player can convert plate discipline and less-than-imposing physical stature? How about Lux? He didn’t put a single ball over the fence in 253 rookie ball plate appearances, then managed only seven dingers in 501 trips to the dish at the Class A level. But last year, Lux produced 26 long balls in his 523 upper-minors plate appearances.

Lux never quite matched Franco’s ludicrous K/BB numbers. But he’s not easy to retire on strikes, knows how to draw a walk, and features a blend of power and average. Last year’s minor-league slash line: .347/.421/.607. That’ll play, particularly for a guy known as a quality baserunner and fielder. What of the notorious PCL offensive inflation? Lux exploded with a 188 wRC+ in Triple-A, so the numbers stand out even against a high mean. While Lux may end up playing second base with the powerhouse Dodgers, he’s generally considered capable of holding down shortstop in the majors.

And here’s the thing about Lux: he has already reached and shown he can hang at the game’s highest level. He didn’t exactly take the league by storm when he arrived late in 2019. But Lux produced a .240/.305/.400 slash in 82 plate appearances. And he was trusted with a postseason roster spot. It remains to be seen whether Lux will be a perennial All-Star or something less, but when it comes to getting value from a guy, he’s about as sure a thing as a prospect can be.

In this case, there’s probably not much question that Franco has the loftier ceiling. And we have seen players shoot up from the lower minors into the majors rather quickly, so he may not be far off from a debut if he terrorizes the upper minors as expected. But there’s inherently much more risk in such a player than in Lux, who’s ready to slot in as a MLB regular as soon as this season finally gets underway. Particularly if you’re somewhat risk-averse and/or need immediate contributions in the majors, perhaps Lux is actually the better bet.

Which prospect would you prefer to have? (Poll link for app users.)

GM Trade History: Phillies’ Matt Klentak

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila, the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Blue Jays’ Ross Atkins and the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto. Let’s now head to Philadelphia to evaluate Matt Klentak, who has worked alongside president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail with the organization since 2015. (Deals are in chronological order and exclude minor moves; full details at transaction link).

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

  • None

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What are your thoughts on Klentak’s trades in Philly (Poll link for app users)

 

Transaction Retrospection: An Arizona-Seattle Blockbuster

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MLBTR’s Steve Adams just recapped the notable trades that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has made dating back to his hiring late in the 2015 season. That was an unenviable task when you consider the eye-popping amount of deals that Trader Jerry has swung since he arrived in Seattle. One of Dipoto’s most significant moves so far came on Nov. 23, 2016, when the Mariners and Diamondbacks made a trade that will likely impact both franchises for the foreseeable future.

The Mariners sent right-hander Taijuan Walker and middle infielder Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for middle infielder Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and lefty Zac Curtis. The only member of the quintet who hasn’t established himself in the majors is Curtis, who pitched 38 innings in the bigs from 2016-18 but is now a free agent after the Rangers released him last July. On the other hand, Walker, Marte, Segura and Haniger have all enjoyed at least some success at the MLB level.

Walker, once a blue-chip prospect, hasn’t really lived up to the hype thus far. After a so-so run with the Mariners, he did well for Arizona in 2017, throwing 157 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA/4.04 FIP ball. Unfortunately, injuries have cut down Walker since then. He underwent Tommy John surgery early in 2018, forcing him to miss almost all of that season, and then made just one appearance last season as he recovered from TJS and battled shoulder problems. The 27-year-old is now back with the Mariners on an inexpensive contract, so it’s clear that the acquisition didn’t work out as hoped for the Diamondbacks.

On the other side, the Marte pickup has gone swimmingly for Arizona. Marte was not the headliner in the deal at the time, but he’s a former top-100 prospect who has emerged as one of the majors’ stars during his short MLB career. The switch-hitting Marte, now 26, had his struggles in his first season as a D-back, but that didn’t stop GM Mike Hazen from extending him on a five-year, $24MM guarantee going into 2018. That decision has worked out beautifully for Arizona, which benefited from Marte’s 2.6-fWAR effort in 2018 and far more from his 7.1-fWAR showing last season. Marte divided his nearly MVP-caliber 2019 campaign between second base and center field – positions that were sore spots for the Mariners.

The Mariners miss Marte, but that doesn’t mean they came away empty-handed in this swap. As noted earlier, they got back Walker on a low-cost pact that may or may not pay dividends. Segura gave the team two productive seasons before it traded him to the Phillies in a deal for shortstop J.P. Crawford, who has a chance to end up as the M’s long-term answer at the position. And then there’s Haniger, who thrived from 2017-18 before a gruesome injury (a ruptured testicle) deprived him of 99 of 162 games in 2019. Haniger was not viewed as a can’t-miss prospect when the trade went down, but he ran roughshod over Triple-A pitching and has held his own in the majors when healthy. He’s under control through 2022, so a healthy version could either continue as an asset for the rebuilding Mariners or wind up as a valuable trade chip.

Adding everything up, this counts as one of the most fascinating deals of the past few years. Both sides landed good players, but Marte has clearly been the most valuable piece to this point. The Marte addition is among the reasons D-backs GM Mike Hazen’s trade history has gone over so well.

Rebound Candidate: Lorenzo Cain

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Lorenzo Cain has unquestionably been one of Major League Baseball’s elite center fielders over the past several years. During his greatest stretch – a five-year run divided between the Royals and Brewers from 2014-18 – Cain racked up four seasons of better than 4.0 fWAR, ranked fifth among all outfielders in that statistic (22.7), fourth in Defensive Runs Saved (67) and fifth in Ultimate Zone Rating (43.7). He was also an indispensable piece for the Royals in 2014, an American League pennant-winning campaign, and even more productive the next season during a year in which the team won its first World Series since 1985.

The Royals haven’t been nearly as successful since they last took the crown, but Cain remained a quality contributor for the club over the next two years. His overall track record convinced the small-market Brewers to splurge on Cain entering 2018, handing him a five-year, $80MM contract.

The Cain gamble couldn’t have worked out much better in 2018 for the Brewers, who saw him slash .308/.395/.417 (good for a career-best 124 wRC+) with 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases across 620 plate appearances. And Cain continued to take hits away from opponents in the field, where he totaled 18 DRS, 8.7 UZR and 22 Outs Above Average (No. 1 among outfielders). The entire package was worth 5.7 fWAR. FanGraphs valued it at just over $45MM, more than half the total of his contract.

Cain helped lead the Brewers to an NL Central title in 2018, and while they did return to the playoffs last year, he wasn’t nearly as helpful to their cause. Owing in part to thumb, wrist and oblique problems, the 33-year-old turned in one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, hitting .260/.325/.372 (83 wRC+) over 623 PA.

Cain has never been much of a power hitter, so that wasn’t the culprit for his decline (in fact, he ended up with even more homers – 11 – than he did in the previous season). But Cain stole 12 fewer bases (18 on 26 attempts) and went from one of FanGraphs’ highest-graded base runners to merely mediocre. It didn’t help that Cain plummeted on the Sprint Speed leaderboard, going from a tie from 84th in the majors in 2018 to a tie for 185th last season. That’s an alarming one-year drop, though he did still rank in the game’s 72nd percentile in the Sprint Speed category.

It goes without saying that if you’re going to maximize your potential as a runner, you have to get on base first. Cain wasn’t able to do that nearly as much as usual last year, in part because of a walk rate that sunk by 3.5 percent from the prior season and a strikeout rate that climbed by almost 2 percent. More importantly, when Cain put the ball in play, his BABIP fell off to a noticeable extent. He put up a .357 BABIP during his excellent 2018, and his speed has helped him to a lifetime .339 mark, but he checked in at just .301 in 2019.

The good news is that there’s still enough data to suggest Cain can at least be a passable offensive player going forward. For one, his .330 expected weighted on-base average last season outdid his real wOBA (.302) by 28 points. He also upped his hard-hit rate by about 2 percent from ’18, ranking in the league’s 69th percentile, and ended in the 88th percentile in expected batting average (.290). Cain’s power wasn’t there, but again, that hasn’t been his bread and butter anyway.

Defensively, there was no let-up at all. Cain placed third among all outfielders in OAA (14), trailing the much younger Victor Robles and Kevin Kiermaier, fourth in DRS (22) and ninth in UZR (7.0). Despite his advanced age (relative to outfielders, that is), it’s hard to argue that Cain isn’t still a world-class defender at the very least.

Cain’s marvelous defense and his above-average speed will continue to give him a decent floor this year even if he’s unable to revisit his best form as a hitter. But if he can even go back to being a league-average offensive player in 2020, Cain should return to being a highly valuable member of Milwaukee’s roster.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

GM Trade History: Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto

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It seems we’ve reached the point in our GM Trade History series where someone at MLBTR has taken on the foolhardy, daunting task of re-chronicling the unyielding exploits of Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto — far and away the most active executive on MLB’s trade market. (What have I done?!) Commonly referred to as “Trader Jerry,” the seemingly tireless Dipoto has fueled hundreds of posts here at MLBTR (thanks, Jerry!) through a series of win-now moves, fringe roster tinkerings and, more recently, a “reimagining” of his organization.

Dipoto took the reins as the Mariners’ general manager at the conclusion of the 2015 campaign. Predecessor Jack Zduriencik had been unable to break the club’s mounting postseason drought, and ownership turned to a former division rival to try to turn things around. Dipoto held the GM post with the Angels from 2011-15 but saw a relatively publicized rift grow between himself and skipper Mike Scioscia over the manager’s unwillingness to utilize data from the club’s analytics department. The frustration boiled to the point where Dipoto resigned in early July despite reported attempts from owner Arte Moreno to persuade him to stay on board. Dipoto quickly landed an interim post in the Red Sox’ front office, and less than three months after walking away from the Angels, he was named the new GM in Seattle.

There’s a narrative that Dipoto’s constant activity rendered the Mariners’ farm bare early in his tenure, and while there’s probably some truth within that generalization, it’s equally important to note that he inherited a losing club with a relatively high payroll and an already-poor minor league system. That was four and a half years ago, though. How have things worked out for Dipoto since? Let’s take a (very long) look! Trades are in chronological order and exclude particularly minor swaps. (More details on each trade is available in the “acquired” link on each bullet.)

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

—

How do MLBTR readers feel about Dipoto’s landslide of trade activity? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Interested in how other GMs hold up under this exercise? We’ve covered Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos and Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins as well.

Revisiting Yasiel Puig’s 2019

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Free agency in Major League Baseball opened way back in the beginning of November. At that point, nobody would have expected outfielder Yasiel Puig to remain without a job into April, but here we are. It’s going to stay that way for at least a little while longer, too, after MLB put a stop to transactions last week in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

It’s hard to believe it has come to this for Puig, who has enjoyed an impressive career overall and who entered the offseason as MLBTR’s 37th-ranked free agent. We predicted Puig would land a one-year, $8MM contract, and he reportedly rejected a $10MM offer at some point during the winter, but it’s now difficult to envision him matching or eclipsing either figure on his next contract.

Why is Puig still a man without a team? Well, he didn’t do himself any favors with a middling 2019 performance divided between the Reds and Indians. Puig, a high-profile, oft-electrifying Dodger from 2013-18, entered Cincinnati as a .279/.353/.478 hitter (good for a 129 wRC+) with 108 home runs, 60 stolen bases and 19.7 fWAR in 2,765 plate appearances. Despite his generally above-average numbers, the Dodgers grew weary of the mercurial Puig even before they traded him, as they optioned him to the minors and placed him on revocable trade waivers during the 2016 season. That was one of the least productive seasons Puig has ever had, but he at least bounced back on offense from 2017-18.

Unfortunately for Puig, he regressed to his 2016 form during his platform campaign, even posting a matching 101 wRC+. The 29-year-old did smack 24 home runs and steal 19 bases, but his .267/.327/.458 line across 611 plate appearances was essentially average, while the 1.2 fWAR he logged represents the worst of his career over a full season. That said, Puig’s output last year wasn’t entirely dissimilar from his 2018, during which his batting line was 23 percent better than the league mean, according to wRC+. He also batted .267 and recorded a .327 on-base percentage that year, but Puig’s slugging percentage (.494) was superior by 36 points; meanwhile, his isolated power number (.227) was better by 36.

For the most part, Puig’s hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity stayed static in 2019, but he went to the opposite field about 5 percent more than he had during his Dodgers day. That helps explain the drop in power from 2018, as does Puig’s ineptitude against offspeed pitches. After battering offspeed offerings for a .380 weighted on-base average in 2018, Puig sunk to .281 last year. That won’t necessarily stick, though – after all, Puig did put up an even worse .226 in the offspeed category in 2016 before raising his output by 100-some points from 2017-18.

Meantime, Puig was a mixed bag at best on the defensive front in 2019. Overall, Puig has been a plus defender in the majors, but he ended last season with zero Defensive Runs Saved (only the second season in which he wasn’t a plus in that category), zero Outs Above Average and a minus-0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. Puig also ranked in the bottom sixth percentile on Statcast’s Outfielder Jump leaderboard, though he did wind up in the league’s top 79th percentile in Sprint Speed.

While last season was clearly a mediocre showing by Puig, that doesn’t mean he should still be without an employer – especially considering his track record. Of course, if Puig did indeed misread things enough to say no to a $10MM guarantee, it’s partially his fault that he remains the most prominent free agent on a market that has come to a temporary halt. If and when life gets back to normal this year, it’ll be interesting to see whether Puig signs. He still looks like a player who could benefit at least some teams, particularly rebuilding types that could take a short-term flier on him and then flip him around the trade deadline (that’s assuming a season and a deadline occur).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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