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A Seattle Signing That Didn’t Work Out In 2019

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Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi entered the majors with quite a bit of fanfare heading into the 2019 season. At that point, Kikuchi was coming off a terrific eight-year tenure as a member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Seibu Lions, with whom he posted a 2.77 ERA and put up 8.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 across 1,010 2/3 innings. Kikuchi parlayed that run into a high-paying contract with the Mariners, who signed him to a four-year, $56MM guarantee. It’s an unusual deal – one that could keep him in Seattle for as few as three years and as many as seven, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams explained at the time.

For now, the Mariners may be disappointed in their investment. Kikuchi struggled mightily during his first major league season, and there don’t seem to be many clear reasons to expect a turnaround. Starting with some optimism, it’s nice that Kikuchi amassed 161 2/3 innings, approaching the career-high 163 2/3 he accrued during an NPB season. But while Kikuchi ranked a respectable 59th in innings last year, he wasn’t very productive otherwise.

Among 70 pitchers who threw at least 150 frames, Kikuchi ranked last in FIP (5.71) and home runs per nine (2.00), second from the bottom in ERA (5.46) and 10th last in K/BB ratio (2.32; 6.46 K/9 against 2.78 BB/9). And the 28-year-old wasn’t effective against either lefties or righties. Same-handed hitters recorded a .340 weighted on-base average against him, meaning Kikuchi essentially turned lefties into the 2019 version of Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager. Righties, meanwhile, averaged a lofty .374 mark – the same number Astros second baseman Jose Altuve registered during the season.

So why was Year 1 such a disaster for Kikuchi? Well, as you’d expect, none of his pitches graded out well. According to Statcast, Kikuchi mostly relied on a four-seam fastball (49 percent), a slider (28 percent) and a curveball (15 percent). FanGraphs ranked all of those offerings among the worst of their kind, making it no surprise that so many hitters teed off on him. With that in mind, it’s hardly a shock that Kikuchi ranked toward the basement of the majors in a slew of important Statcast categories, finishing in the league’s 35th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected ERA and expected wOBA, to name a few.

Had Kikuchi gotten off to a slow start and then made a late charge, it would be easier to have some hope going into this season. It was essentially the opposite, though, as Kikuchi owned a passable 4.37 ERA/4.51 FIP through April and then went in the tank from there. His monthly FIP only dipped below 5.00 once after the season’s first month, and it exceeded the 6.00 mark overall after the All-Star break.

In terms of performance from a hyped pitcher, it’s tough to make a much worse first impression than Kikuchi’s from 2019. That doesn’t mean he’ll never amount to anything in the majors – you have to sympathize with someone trying to adjust to a new country and the best baseball league in the world, after all. However, it’s not easy to find encouraging signs from Kikuchi’s first year in the majors, which is not what the rebuilding, long-suffering Mariners had in mind when they took a gamble on him in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Grading Jason Heyward’s Career (So Far)

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It would be an understatement to say the Cubs’ Jason Heyward has had an eventful career in professional baseball. Heyward was the 14th pick of the Braves in the 2007 draft, and the Georgia-raised outfielder’s star continued to rise thereafter. As a prospect, Heyward topped out as Baseball America’s No. 1 overall farmhand after the 2009 season.

“Even if he opens 2010 at Triple-A Gwinnett, Heyward will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the year, and he has all the ability to emerge as one of the game’s premier players,” BA wrote then.

The towering Heyward did not start 2010 in the minors, though, instead beginning as the Braves’ top right fielder. And he made an enormous impact from the get-go, smashing a first-inning, three-run homer off Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano in his initial at-bat. The Braves went on to win that game and 90 more en route to a wild-card berth, owing in no small part to a 4.6-fWAR Heyward effort in which he batted .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances.

It seemed that the rookie version of Heyward was indeed destined for greatness, but his career hasn’t been particularly consistent since then. Heyward remained a Brave from 2011-14, a 2,196-plate appearance run in which he batted .258/.340/.422 with 14.9 fWAR, but they decided after the last of those seasons to trade the homegrown standout to the Cardinals in a deal for right-hander Shelby Miller. That wasn’t indefensible from the Braves’ point of view, as Miller was then an up-and-coming starter with a few years’ team control remaining and Heyward had just one season left before reaching free agency.

[RELATED: Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing]

If you go by fWAR, Heyward had his best in St. Louis (5.6), hitting .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and a career-high 23 steals in 610 PA. Heyward was part of a 100-win team that year, but after the Cardinals bowed out of the NLDS against the Cubs, the free agent went to … the Cubs. They handed him an eight-year, $184MM guarantee, but Heyward’s regular-season numbers have fallen flat dating back to then. During his first four years as a Cub, Heyward batted an underwhelming .252/.327/.383 line across 2,151 trips to the plate, leading to 6.0 fWAR. Heyward’s typically outstanding defense has kept him afloat, as he has logged 42 Defensive Runs Saved and a 27.2 Ultimate Zone Rating as a Chicago outfielder (overall, he has put up 143 DRS with a 99.5 UZR as a big leaguer). Of course, it’s not always just about statistics.

On Nov. 2, 2016, the Cubs and Indians were tied 6-6 through nine innings and stuck in a rain delay in Game 7 of the World Series. It was two teams trying to break long championship droughts, but on Chicago’s side, Heyward went into Knute Rockne mode in the locker room.

“We’re the best team in baseball, and we’re the best team in baseball for a reason,” Heyward told his teammates (via Tom Verducci’s book “The Cubs Way: The Zen of Building the Best Team in Baseball and Breaking the Curse“). “Now we’re going to show it. We play like the score is nothing-nothing. We’ve got to stay positive and fight for your brothers. Stick together and we’re going to win this game.” 

“Right then I thought, We’re winning this f—— game!,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said.

The Cubs did just that when the 17-minute delay ended, defeating the Indians in the 10th to pick up their first title in 108 years. It’s hard to quantify how much Heyward meant to that team on an emotional level. He went 0-for-5 in that game and posted a miserable .307 OPS during the postseason, which came after he recorded a personal-worst 72 wRC+ in the regular season, but that Game 7 speech will always live in Cubs lore.

While the Cubs haven’t won another title since 2016, Heyward’s production has trended upward going back to then, as he has been something close to a league-average hitter. Still, that’s not great for a former can’t-miss prospect who’s owed another $86MM through 2023. In all, Heyward has been a bit better than average as an offensive player during his career, having batted .261/.343/.412 (107 wRC+) with 144 homers and 110 steals in 5,580 PA. However, consistently stellar defense has helped the 30-year-old accumulate 31.1 fWAR, which is a higher amount than the vast majority of major leaguers have piled up, and he may have helped key a Cubs title behind the scenes. All things considered, how would you grade his career to this point?

(Poll link for app users)

Grade Jason Heyward's career so far
C 53.08% (7,280 votes)
B 28.17% (3,864 votes)
D 13.25% (1,818 votes)
F 3.72% (510 votes)
A 1.78% (244 votes)
Total Votes: 13,716

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Remembering The No. 1 Picks Of The 1990s

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We know the 2020 Major League Baseball draft is going to be unconventional, an event that will last a mere five rounds compared to the 40 we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years. Regardless, the team with the No. 1 overall pick – Detroit – is in the best position to land a future superstar. But how many recent top choices have actually panned out? Let’s start in the 1990s, and you can be the judge…

1990: Chipper Jones, Braves:

  • What a success. The former third baseman/outfielder is now a Hall of Famer after spending his entire career with the Braves from 1993-2012. In his first full season, 1995, Jones helped the Braves to their most recent World Series title. Overall, Jones slashed .303/.401/.529 with 468 home runs, 150 stolen bases and 84.6 fWAR, and made eight All-Star teams.

1991: Brien Taylor, Yankees:

  • This couldn’t have gone much worse, as former FanGraphs writer Mike Axisa noted back in 2012. Off-field problems helped prevent the left-handed Taylor from ever taking a major league mound. He’s one of just four No. 1 picks to never get to the league.

1992: Phil Nevin, Astros:

  • Nevin carved out a decent career as a member of several teams from 1995-2006, during which he hit .270/.343/.472 with 208 home runs and 15.2 fWAR, but made little impact with the Astros. They traded him to the Tigers for righty Mike Henneman in 2006. Nevin may be best known as the player the Astros chose five picks before Derek Jeter. Then-Astros scout Hal Newhouser was so insistent Houston should pick Jeter that he quit his job when it didn’t happen.

1993: Alex Rodriguez, Mariners:

  • Good work, Seattle. Rodriguez didn’t last that long with the Mariners (1994-2000), but he made four All-Star teams and batted .309/.374/.561 with 189 homers, 133 steals and 35.0 fWAR during that span. You can’t argue with those results, nor do his next teams – the Rangers or Yankees – regret the numbers he turned in later in his career. Peformance-enhancing drug issues have made the ex-shortstop/third baaseman a polarizing figure, however.

1994: Paul Wilson, Mets:

  • Wilson did pitch in the majors, but he only tossed 149 innings with the Mets (all in 1996) and didn’t log a single frame in the bigs from 1997-99. He did amass almost 800 more innings between the Rays and Reds from 2000-05, but didn’t exactly wow with a lifetime 4.86 ERA.

1995: Darin Erstad, Angels:

  • The former Nebraska punter won three Gold Glovees, made two All-Star teams and helped the Angels to their lone World Series title in 2002. Erstad – an outfielder/first baseman – finished his career in 2009 as a .282/.336/.407 hitter with 124 homers, 179 steals and 28.5 fWAR.

1996: Kris Benson, Pirates:

  • He was never an ace, but the righty had a reasonably productive career, finishing with a 4.42 ERA and 14.8 fWAR in a combined 206 games with the Pirates, Mets, Orioles, Rangers and Diamondbacks from 1999-2010.

1997: Matt Anderson, Tigers:

  • Four of the top five picks in this draft (J.D. Drew, Troy Glaus, Jason Grilli and Vernon Wells) became All-Stars. The lone exception was Anderson, a righty who only produced 0.5 fWAR in 256 2/3 innings between the Tigers and Rockies from 1998-2005.

1998: Pat Burrell, Phillies:

  • Burrell wasn’t a superstar, but he had a solid career, winding up with a .253/.361/.472 line, 292 HRs and 19.0 fWAR among the Phillies, Rays and Giants from 2000-11. He won two World Series – one with the Phils and another with the Giants.

1999: Josh Hamilton, Rays:

  • Hamilton’s off-field troubles were well-documented during his career, and he never played for the Rays as a result. They left Hamilton unprotected in the 2005 Rule 5 Draft, and the Cubs selected him before trading him to the Reds. Hamilton thrived in Cincinnati in 2007 before the team traded him to the Rangers in a deal that sent righty Edinson Volquez to the Reds. That proved to be a steal for the Rangers, with whom Hamilton was a five-time All-Star, an AL MVP winner and someone who helped them to two pennants. He ended his career in 2015 with the Rangers (after a big-money stint with the Angels) as a .290/.349/.516 hitter with 200 HRs and 27.9 fWAR, making him one of the most successful performers on this list.

—

This is a mixed bag, isn’t it? Jones is in Cooperstown. A-Rod’s production could put him there, but he may never get enough support because of the PED questions. Nevin, Erstad, Benson, Burrell and Hamilton had respectable careers in their own right, while Taylor, Wilson and Anderson did little to nothing at the MLB level.

The Extension That Kept The Future World Series MVP In D.C.

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Four years ago today, the Nationals made a franchise-altering decision. The club and Stephen Strasburg agreed on a seven-year, $175MM extension (with deferrals that lowered its present value) on May 10, 2016. The deal kept the then-27-year-old from hitting free agency that winter, where he’d have profiled as the top player on the market in the eyes of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. It registered as a surprise given how close the former #1 overall pick was to the open market, made a bit more eye-opening by his status as a Scott Boras client.

Clearly, though, Strasburg was comfortable with the only organization he’d ever known. And the deal didn’t commit him to Washington for the full seven years; it came with opt-out clauses after 2019 and 2020. He’d have a chance to (and ultimately did) pitch his way to greater earnings in the future.

For the Nationals, the risk-reward calculus was apparent. The extension looked to be a discount relative to Strasburg’s overall earning potential, considering the $200MM+ guarantees secured by Max Scherzer and David Price the two prior offseasons. Still, committing well over nine figures to any pitcher, particularly one with a Tommy John Surgery under his belt, comes with potential pitfalls.

Over the first few seasons, the deal played as a fine one for the club, but it wasn’t any sort of massive bargain. Strasburg was very productive when healthy, combining for a 3.27 ERA/3.13 FIP in 404 innings from the time of signing through the end of 2018. Various injuries kept him just outside the game’s top tier of pitchers, though. In that two and a half year stretch, the right-hander hit the injured list five separate times with back, shoulder, elbow and neck maladies. None had ultimately proven serious, but he had assembled a somewhat ominous laundry list of health problems.

Entering 2019, it didn’t look as if Strasburg was on track to exercise the first of those opt-outs. Then, at age 30, he ripped off a career year. In the regular season, he tossed 209 innings (his first 200-inning season since 2014) of 3.32 ERA ball with stellar strikeout (29.8%), walk (6.7%) and ground-ball (51.1%) rates. That alone would’ve made his season a resounding success, but it was Strasburg’s October work that cemented his place in Nationals’ lore.

He kicked off the 2019 postseason with three scoreless relief innings behind Scherzer in the NL Wild Card game, allowing the Nats to rally late and knock off the Brewers. That was only the beginning. Strasburg would go on to start five playoff games thereafter. He tossed quality starts in all of them, and Washington would go on to win each one. He played a key role in three elimination game victories, including an 8.1 inning gem in Game 6 of the World Series in Houston. All told, he finished the postseason with a 1.98 ERA and an absurd 47:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36.1 innings. He picked up a deserved World Series MVP award for his efforts in bringing the franchise’s first title to D.C.

Strasburg’s again back in the fold long-term. After opting out, he re-signed last winter on another seven-year deal for a $245MM guarantee. Regardless of how his next deal plays out, Strasburg will always have a spot in the heart of the Nationals’ faithful. That’s in large part thanks to the agreement the sides were able to put together four years ago.

The A’s Draft Gamble That Paid Off

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The A’s have built a pair of reigning playoff teams, a much-welcome return to relevancy after three consecutive last place finishes from 2015-17. Recently, they’ve been anchored by a perhaps still-underrated superstar. Over the past two seasons, Matt Chapman has hit .263/.348/.507 (131 wRC+) with 60 home runs in 1286 plate appearances. More notably, he’s proven himself a wizard at third base, racking up an absurd 68 defensive runs saved. With his achievements on both sides of the ball, Chapman has been worth 12.8 fWAR/16.6 bWAR in the last two seasons alone. Baseball Reference’s value metric places him as the third-most valuable position player in that time (behind only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts). Fangraphs slots him sixth, with Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich and Anthony Rendon joining Trout and Betts in the top five.

Regardless of where specifically one would slot Chapman among the game’s best players, it’s apparent he’s at least in the conversation. Given the player he’s become, it’d be easy to assume he was seen as a ’can’t-miss’ talent dating back to his amateur days. That’s not really the case. He was the A’s first-round pick back in 2014, 25th overall. At the time, though, that pick could’ve been considered a bit of a reach, at least in comparison to public rankings.

Neither Baseball America nor MLB Pipeline had Chapman in their top 50 prospects pre-draft (BA slotted him 64th, while Pipeline placed him 82nd). Nor did he crack the top 30 of then-ESPN analysts Keith Law and Christopher Crawford the fall prior. That’s not meant to be a criticism of draft prognosticators. Despite his frame, Chapman never showed much power in games as an amateur. He hit a cumulative 13 home runs over his three years at Cal State Fullerton. It’s hardly surprising evaluators didn’t see a future 36-homer bat in the big leagues.

Questions about Chapman’s hitting prowess were prevalent enough that both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline pointed to pitching as a potential fallback. The elite arm strength he now shows off at the hot corner in Oakland helped him touch 98 MPH on the mound in college. While the consensus was that Chapman should be a given a shot in pro ball at third, where reviews on him defensively were always positive, it wasn’t hard to imagine him flaming out and moving to the mound someday.

To the A’s credit, they never seemed to budge on their evaluation of him as a hitter. Asked about a potential mound conversion for Chapman after the draft, A’s scouting director Eric Kubota shot down the idea to Jimmy Durkin of the Bay Area News Group. “He’s got a chance to be an elite defender at third base,” Kubota told Durkin. “He can really throw. We think his bat is ever-improving. We think there’s untapped power there. We think this is a guy who is going to develop into a power hitter.”

Kubota’s words look awfully prescient in hindsight. Obviously, the organization’s belief in Chapman wasn’t shared throughout the league. There’s no chance he’d have fallen to pick 25 if it were. If teams were to redraft the 2014 class today, Chapman would no doubt be at the top of most teams’ boards. His emergence is a credit to the A’s scouting and player development staffs (and a testament to Chapman himself), an example of the ideal progression teams dream of when they bring a talented player into the system. It’s also a reminder that teams’ evaluations of draft prospects can vary, sometimes to their immense success.

Three Teams Who’ve Yet To Win Their Division

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It is somewhat amazing that there are three National League teams – one each for the West, East, and Central – that have yet to win their division.

Make no mistake, the American League has its share of heartbreak. The Mariners have yet to return to the playoffs after their 116-win season in 2001. The Rangers are far away as ever from capturing their first World Series after the so-close-you-can-taste-it near-misses of 2010 and 2011. Fans of the Astros and Red Sox have suffered different brands of heartbreak after the legitimacy of their recent winners was called into question. 

But in the National League, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates have never won their respective divisions.

Granted, the Pirates were crowned champs of the National League East 9 times, including a three-peat for Jim Leyland’s clubs from 1990 to 1992 and a title-winner way back in 1979 – but since they moved to the NL Central in 1994: goose eggs. That’s a 26-year-run without a divisional crown, a mark of futility eclipsed only by the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado and Florida both entered the league in 1993, and neither has landed the top spot in their division in the 27 seasons since. 

Back in the junior circuit, every team in the AL East has won since 2010 (Tampa Bay). In the Central, the White Sox have the longest drought (11 seasons), going back to their first-place finish in 2008. Everyone in the AL West has taken their turn at the top since 2012 – except the Mariners, of course, who won the division in 2001 and 1997.

But each division in the National League has its slow-and-steady competitor, so let’s take a quick look at each.

Colorado Rockies

Of these three clubs, the Rockies’ reputation took the fewest hits over the last 27 years. The Blake Street Bombers hold a particular place in baseball lore, and there’s a general sense of “unfortunate circumstances” around the Rox because of the thin air in Colorado. The impossibility of housing a winning pitching staff at Coors Field is baseball cliche now, but that doesn’t make the challenge any less potent.

Here’s what I wrote of Colorado in their Offseason In Review post back in March: “Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.”

Adding to the task at hand for Colorado, there’s at least a possibility that ownership believes this team is better than it is. They lost 91 games last year and have exhibited zero financial flexibility. If they end up losing close to 90 games again (or the equivalent in whatever kind of season is played in 2020), then the Rockies are still probably in the decline phase, not yet having rebooted into a full-blown rebuild. Rebuilds, of course, are time-intensive when done right, and very time-intensive when rushed.

The Rockies have made the postseason a handful of times, and they won the pennant in 2007, but they’re caught in no-man’s-land now. The Dodgers have won the division 7 years running, and Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, and company have plenty left in the tank. The Padres’ stable of young arms makes them one of the more intriguing up-and-coming teams in the league, and the Diamondbacks continue to impress with their ability to retool on the fly. After coming within a play-in game of taking the crown from the Dodgers in 2018, the Rockies might have missed their best shot.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins entered the league at a tough time to be a member of the NL East. The Atlanta Braves held a hammerlock on the division, taking the crown every season from 1995 until 2005 (they were in the NL West before that). To their credit, the Marlins made themselves into a competitive squad pretty quick, making the playoffs as a wild card in 1997, just their fifth season of existence. The organization made its name the year after, however, in selling off the pieces of their World Series winner and cratering into a 108-loss squad. After that horrid 1998 season, it took the Marlins five more years to get back to the playoffs again, at which point it was second-verse-same-as-the-first. They didn’t sink quite so fast or quite so far the second time around, but they also haven’t recovered (no playoff appearances since 2003).

That said, the Marlins have begun to see the light from their decade-plus in limbo. MLBTR’s own Mark Polishuk wrapped up the Marlins offseason back in March with this: “It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move…Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.”

The current era of Marlins baseball is best known for shepherding the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna out of town prior to the 2018 season. But they’re also a unique entrant on this mini-list because they won not just one, but two World Series titles over this span. Derek Jeter now helms the organization, and though they don’t have that face-of-the-franchise type player soaking up their spotlight, they’ve become increasingly competitive. Heading into whichever season of baseball comes next, they’ll have a decent collection of starting pitchers to keep them in games – with a smaller host of position player prospects nearing the majors. Whether they have that franchise-changing talent in the upper ranks is unclear. Business might not yet be booming in Miami, but it’s better. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

As stated above, it’s a bit unfair for the Pirates to be lumped in with the expansion clubs from the nineties, as they do have a history of success in the major leagues. They have 9 division crowns, 7 World Series appearances, and 5 World Series banners. But that’s all ancient history.

Since moving to the NL Central in 1994, the Pirates are a firm contender for the most moribund franchise in the sport. The departure of Barry Bonds after the 1992 season put an unfortunate face on their decline – much in the way that Babe Ruth’s departure doomed Boston baseball for so long – but there has been ample time to rebound from those back-to-back game 7 losses to Atlanta in 1991 and 1992.

In the time since the Pirates’ primary distinction is claiming the title for the longest streak of losing seasons in North American sports history. Forget about division titles. The Pirates weren’t able to finish over .500 one time from 1993 to 2012.

Pittsburgh fans finally had something to cheer for in 2013 when Clint Hurdle’s club broke through with 94 wins and a wild card berth. They even won that first playoff game against the division rival Cincinnati Reds and pushed another rival – the Cardinals – to five games in the NLDS. The club followed its star outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco to two more wild card berths in the following two seasons. Unfortunately, they were unable to get more than one playoff game in either of those years.

After finishing over .500 again in 2018, last season brought on a complete reset. Most of the organizations’ management turned over, and the remaining faces of those competitive clubs – Hurdle, Marte – were also sent packing. The organization is now in the hands of GM Ben Cherington, but they’re facing a complete philosophical overhaul. While they have talent, they’re not an easy club to put a timeline on returning to contention. Not until they put together a pitching staff with a more effective (and less pugilistic) philosophy. The division isn’t dominated by one team like the current AL West, but the Cardinals build a winner year after year, and the Cubs and Brewers aren’t far off in terms of their recent consistency.

Looking ahead, a shortened season in 2020 could open the window for a bizarre sort of division champ. All hope is not lost. On the whole, however, I don’t think there are a lot of pundits who would pick any of the Rockies, Marlins, or Pirates to breakthrough next season. Still, it’s bound to happen one day, right? All three teams will work to end their respective droughts, and in the meantime, thank goodness for the wild card.

(Poll link for app users.)

Which fanbase suffered the most over their teams' division title drought?
Pirates 67.09% (3,921 votes)
Marlins 18.21% (1,064 votes)
Rockies 14.70% (859 votes)
Total Votes: 5,844

(Poll link for app users.)

Which team will be the first to break through and win their division?
Rockies 37.43% (1,952 votes)
Marlins 32.64% (1,702 votes)
Pirates 29.93% (1,561 votes)
Total Votes: 5,215

 

Revisiting (And Re-Imagining) The 2010 Draft

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The 2010 amateur draft officially launched the pro careers of several of the modern game’s biggest stars, and since we’re almost a decade removed from that draft class, it seems like a natural time to look back at what ended up being a particularly fascinating draft in hindsight.

Of course, it’s very easy to pick apart any draft with the benefit of years of hindsight, which is why we’re stopping short of any full mock redraft.  First off, given the long period of minor league seasoning that every prospect requires and the fact that virtually every team deploys a “take the best player available” approach, it’s hard to look back at each team’s 2010 roster and try to re-draft by positional needs at the time.  Secondly, that long minor league process is such a major element in how a player develops, it’s quite possible that any of the superstars at the top of this list might have fallen into obscurity (to say nothing of an injury or some other random setback) had they come up in another organization’s farm system.

So in short, perhaps the simplest method is just to list the top 43 players from 2010 by bWAR, stopping at the somewhat arbitrary cutoff point of 3.0 bWAR.  (The actual 2010 first round consisted of a whopping 50 players, thanks to an unusually long 18-pick sandwich round of compensatory picks, as per the old Type A/Type B free agent designation system).  We will also only be listing the drafted players who actually signed with their teams, so such notables as 546th overall pick Kris Bryant or 935th pick Aaron Judge aren’t included.

As a refresher, here’s a list of the actual first round of the 2010 draft.  As a further reminder of how the draft is in many ways a crapshoot, consider that of the 50 real life first-rounders, 18 never reached the big leagues, and 13 have yet to generate anything beyond a replacement-level 0.0 bWAR at the Major League level.  The Rays had three first-round picks (Josh Sale, Justin O’Conner, Drew Vettleson) who never made it to the Show, yet they struck gold on a future Gold Glove winner in the 31st round.

1. 45.3 bWAR: Chris Sale (13th overall, White Sox)
2. 36.7 bWAR: Manny Machado (3rd, Orioles)
3. 36.3 bWAR: Andrelton Simmons (70th, Braves)
4. 35.5 bWAR: Jacob deGrom (272nd, Mets)
5. 31.8 bWAR: Christian Yelich (23rd, Marlins)
6. 31.8 bWAR: Bryce Harper (1st, Nationals)
7. 25.7 bWAR: Kevin Kiermaier (941st, Rays)
8. 19.3 bWAR: Adam Eaton (571st, Diamondbacks)
9. 18.4 bWAR: J.T. Realmuto (104th, Marlins)
10. 17.2 bWAR: Yasmani Grandal (12th, Reds)
11. 15.7 bWAR: Noah Syndergaard (38th, Blue Jays)
12. 15.7 bWAR: Kole Calhoun (264th, Angels)
13. 13.3 bWAR: Whit Merrifield (269th, Royals)
14. 13.3 bWAR: James Paxton (132rd, Mariners)
15. 13.0 bWAR: Corey Dickerson (260th, Rockies)
16. 10.9 bWAR: Joc Pederson (352nd, Dodgers)
17. 10.8 bWAR: Drew Pomeranz (5th, Indians)
18. 10.7 bWAR: Eddie Rosario (135th, Twins)
19. 10.3 bWAR: Matt Harvey (7th, Mets)
20. 9.7 bWAR: Nicholas Castellanos (44th, Tigers)
21. 9.2 bWAR: Drew Smyly (68th, Tigers)
22. 8.9 bWAR: Aaron Sanchez (34th, Blue Jays)
23. 8.9 bWAR: Jedd Gyorko (59th, Padres)
24. 8.8 bWAR: Robbie Ray (356th, Nationals)
25. 8.5 bWAR: Evan Gattis (704th, Braves)
26. 8.2 bWAR: Jameson Taillon (2nd, Pirates)
27. 6.7 bWAR: Adam Duvall (348th, Giants)
28. 6.1 bWAR: Mark Canha (227th, Marlins)
29. 6.0 bWAR: Alex Claudio (826th, Rangers)
30. 6.0 bWAR: Addison Reed (95th, White Sox)
31. 5.8 bWAR: A.J. Griffin (395th, Athletics)
32. 5.8 bWAR: Taijuan Walker (43rd, Mariners)
33. 5.7 bWAR: Michael Lorenzen (221st, Rays)
34. 5.6 bWAR: Sam Dyson (126th, Blue Jays)
35. 5.3 bWAR: Delino DeShields Jr. (8th, Astros)
36. 5.2 bWAR: Vince Velasquez (58th, Astros)
37. 5.2 bWAR: Derek Dietrich (79th, Rays)
38. 4.9 bWAR: Mike Foltynewicz (19th, Astros)
39. 3.8 bWAR: Tyler Thornburg (96th, Brewers)
40. 3.8 bWAR: Jimmy Nelson (64th, Brewers)
41. 3.3 bWAR: Greg Garcia (229th, Cardinals)
42. 3.2 bWAR: Brandon Workman (57th, Red Sox)
43. 3.0 bWAR: Chad Bettis (76th, Rockies)

A few more observations….

  • It’s fun to imagine a world where the Nationals follow up drafting Stephen Strasburg with the #1 overall pick in 2009 with another ace in Chris Sale in 2010, though Harper was widely considered the top player available a decade ago.  Many scouts at the time felt Sale was a risk for a future arm injury, which led to his drop to the White Sox at the 13th overall spot.  While Sale recently went under the knife for a Tommy John procedure, his decade of near Cooperstown-level performance made his selection of the best picks in White Sox history.
  • The Blue Jays still end up with Noah Syndergaard in this reality, as the Jays had the 11th overall pick of the 2010 draft.  Syndergaard was the headliner of a four-prospect package sent by Toronto to the Mets in December 2012 in the trade that brought R.A. Dickey to the Jays.
  • Even in the modern era of heavy player movement, it stands out that so few of the players on the list are still with the teams that originally drafted them.  DeGrom, Kiermaier, Merrifield, Pederson, and Rosario are the only players in the top 25 who are still playing with their original teams, and Pederson came seemingly within a hair of being dealt to the Angels this past offseason.
  • Upon seeing Matt Harvey in the 19th spot on this list, Mets fans may immediately question the logic of re-ordering the draft solely by bWAR.  Needless to say, in a strict re-draft, Harvey would certainly drop a lot lower given the uncertainty surrounding his future.  That said, Harvey’s solid bWAR total is perhaps a reminder of just how good the Dark Knight was before injuries curtailed his status as one of baseball’s top pitchers.
  • Left-hander Dean Kiekhefer, the 1099th overall pick, was the lowest-drafted player to reach the majors.  Kiekhefer climbed from the 36th round to appear in 30 MLB games with the Cardinals (his drafting team) and Athletics from 2016-18.

When CC Sabathia Put A Team On His Back

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We’re 12 years removed from one of the highest-impact trade deadline deals in recent history. On July 7, 2008, the Indians parted with homegrown star and pending free agent CC Sabathia, sending the left-hander to the Brewers for first baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta, southpaw Zach Jackson, righty Rob Bryson and a player to be named later who became outfielder Michael Brantley. In hindsight, it may have been a win-win transaction.

When the Brewers made the bold move to acquire Sabathia, they were mired in a seemingly interminable playoff drought that went back to the early 1980s. But the team and then-general manager Doug Melvin saw a way out when they picked up Sabathia, who joined a roster that was 49-40 at the time. There were some terrific players on that club – Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy and Ben Sheets were among them – but Sabathia became the face of the franchise down the stretch and all but willed the Brewers to the postseason.

Already a three-time All-Star and the reigning AL Cy Young winner when he became a Brewer, the 28-year-old won 11 of his 13 decisions and posted a 1.65 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 after heading to Milwaukee. His workload was enormous, too, as Sabathia amassed 130 2/3 innings across 17 starts in Milwaukee and piled up seven complete games in the process. Sabathia’s final complete game of the year came when he pitched the Brewers to the playoffs in their regular-season finale with nine innings of one-(unearned) run ball in a victory over the Cubs (here are Bob Uecker and Brian Anderson’s calls of that triumph for Milwaukee).

The Cubs did take the National League Central with ease, finishing with 97 wins to the Brewers’ 90, which set the Brew Crew up to face the Phillies in the NLDS. That proved to be the end of the line for the Brewers, who were no match for the eventual World Series winners and fell in four games. As excellent as he was during the season, Sabathia had nothing left against the Phillies, who battered the workhorse for five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in Game 2 – his lone appearance of the series. That proved to be the final Brewers outing for Sabathia, as he left for a far bigger payday than they were able to offer in the next offseason. Sabathia signed with the Yankees for seven years and $161MM, and the now-retired 39-year-old further continued to make a resounding Hall of Fame case while wearing pinstripes.

While Sabathia wasn’t a Brewer for long, they don’t regret his magical run in their uniform or the long-awaited return to respectability he helped provide as a member of the team. That’s not say they came away from the trade unscathed, though. None of LaPorta (a once-promising prospect), Jackson or Bryson were impactful in the majors, but Brantley has been outstanding for the most part. A seventh-round draft pick of the Brewers and now a soon-to-be 33-year-old member of the Astros, Brantley has put together a lifetime line of .297/.354/.439 in 5,120 plate appearances. The majority of the damage has come in an Indians uniform, but they weren’t contenders in 2008 and weren’t going to re-sign Sabathia, so selling him for the best possible return made sense.

Losing Sabathia certainly hurt for Cleveland, but getting several productive seasons out of Brantley made for a nice consolation prize. Conversely, it must have stung the Brewers to see what Brantley turned into, but neither they nor their fans will ever forget what Sabathia gave them over a couple incredible months.

Pittsburgh’s Promising Middle Infield

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If you hear the names Frazier and Newman, you might think of a couple shows from the 1990s NBC television schedule (yes, I know the great sitcom’s spelled “Frasier”). In this case, though, we’re talking about the Pirates’ modern-day middle infield. Although the team looks as if it’s a ways away from returning to contention, it does seem to have a promising second base-shortstop combination in Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman. They’re two of the reasons why all hope isn’t lost for a franchise that has cratered in recent years after it went to the playoffs in each season from 2013-15.

Looking back to 2013, Frazier was a sixth-round pick (that means he wouldn’t have been selected this year) who topped out as Baseball America’s 27th-ranked Pirates prospect after the 2015 campaign. As BA noted then, Frazier somehow went three seasons at Mississippi State without hitting a home run, but he has since shown more pop in the majors. Last season was his second straight 10-HR showing, which isn’t saying much in such a power-happy era, but he has still been a roughly average offensive performer since debuting in 2016. He’s the owner of a respectable lifetime .279/.342/.420 line and a 103 wRC+ across 1,574 plate appearances, and he managed a decent fWAR of 2.2 in 608 PA last year. And while Frazier’s penciled in as the Pirates’ second baseman, he’s versatile enough to move around the diamond if they find a better option there. The 28-year-old has logged a substantial amount of time in the outfield, where he has played all three spots, and has seen a bit of action at shortstop and third base.

Newman, 26, has also shown off a good amount of versatility, having lined up at both middle infield positions, third and in left since he got to the majors in 2018. The majority of Newman’s work has come at short, though, and that’s a position he has on lockdown – at least, until rising prospect Oneil Cruz gets to MLB.

Even if Cruz does reach the league sometime soon and bump Newman off short, the club may still have a keeper in the latter. A first-round pick in 2015 and a former top 100 prospect, Newman impressed in his first full season in 2019 with 2.4 fWAR and a .308/.353/.446 line with 12 homers and 16 steals in 531 PA. Newman doesn’t hit the ball that hard or bring a lot of power to the table, but he’s a fast runner who consistently makes contact. Those factors make him a good candidate to continue posting high averages. Just four hitters outdid Newman’s strikeout percentage of 11.7 last season, and only three bettered his 87 percent contact rate.

Frazier and Newman aren’t exactly exciting players, but they could make for a nice, inexpensive duo for the Pirates going forward. They’ll combine for less than $3.5MM this year, which is important for a low-budget Pirates team that will put a dirt-cheap roster on the field if a season does happen. Of the two, though, Newman seems more likely to stick around for longer, considering he has five years of control left to Frazier’s three. The Pirates haven’t been shy about selling off players with dwindling team control, but perhaps that will change with new general manager Ben Cherington at the helm. In the meantime, the hope for Pittsburgh is that Frazier and Newman will continue as the effective, low-cost performers they’ve been so far.

Let’s Name The Defining Trade Of The Past Decade

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Back at the start of the year, I ran down the most memorable trades of the preceding decade. It was tough to nail down the swaps that I found most compelling; many folks wrote in with others that I added in an honorable mention section. In some cases, people suggested deals that were highly notable to them but relatively unexciting to me. Just as with the game itself, we all experience the hot stove differently.

At the time, I was gathering up the most notable deals. I thought about doing a ranking, but dismissed the idea. It was tough enough to pull together a list. Now I’ve come to wonder … in spite of our differing experiences, and the inherent subjectivity of it all, can we find some amount of consensus on the topic?

I don’t want to spread this too thin, so I’m not going to include every deal mentioned in the original post. Oh, and I went ahead and included a new entrant! You should read the original post on the subject — or click the links below to the deals themselves — for more details on the swaps. I’ll present them here in chronological order.

Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke (12/19/10)

Royals Acquire James Shields, Wade Davis (12/9/12)

Red Sox, Dodgers Complete Nine-Player Blockbuster (8/25/12)

Blue Jays, Marlins Complete 12-Player Blockbuster (11/13/12)

Blue Jays Acquire Josh Donaldson (11/28/14)

Padres Acquire Craig Kimbrel (4/5/15)

Wilmer’s Tears: Astros Acquire Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers / Mets Acquire Yoenis Cespedes (7/31/15)

Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller (12/9/15)

Cubs Acquire Aroldis Chapman (7/25/16)

Red Sox Acquire Chris Sale (12/6/16)

Astros Acquire Justin Verlander (9/1/17)

Marlins Trio: Yankees Acquire Giancarlo Stanton / Cardinals Acquire Marcell Ozuna / Brewers Acquire Christian Yelich (12/17-1/18)

Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts, David Price (2/9/20)

You have a baker’s dozen to choose from. The response order is randomized in the poll. Let’s name the defining trade of the past decade! (Poll link for app users.)

Defining Trade Of The Past Decade
Red Sox, Dodgers Complete Nine-Player Blockbuster 27.45% (3,332 votes)
Astros Acquire Justin Verlander 16.72% (2,030 votes)
Marlins Outfield Trio 13.91% (1,689 votes)
Cubs Acquire Aroldis Chapman 13.29% (1,613 votes)
Red Sox Acquire Chris Sale 4.79% (581 votes)
Blue Jays Acquire Josh Donaldson 4.56% (554 votes)
Wilmer's Tears 4.29% (521 votes)
Royals Acquire James Shields, Wade Davis 3.93% (477 votes)
Blue Jays, Marlins Complete 12-Player Blockbuster 3.46% (420 votes)
Dodgers Acquire Mookie Betts, David Price 3.08% (374 votes)
Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller 2.19% (266 votes)
Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke 1.73% (210 votes)
Padres Acquire Craig Kimbrel 0.58% (71 votes)
Total Votes: 12,138
Show all

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