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Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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While the Marlins are far from pushing for contention, they did spend some money to add proven veteran talent to their roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

In something of a role reversal, the Marlins took an undesirable contract off a rebuilding team’s hands when they landed Jonathan Villar in what was essentially a salary dump for the Orioles.  Villar ended up avoiding arbitration by agreeing with Miami on an $8.2MM salary for the 2020 season — lower than both the $10.4MM MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection model forecast for Villar, and also the roughly $9MM or so that Swartz personally predicted in his closer examination of Villar’s rather unique case.

Even at $8.2MM, Villar was deemed too expensive by a Baltimore team that is stripping its roster down in the early stages of a lengthy rebuild, leaving the Marlins in position to add a quality second baseman coming off a 4.0 fWAR season.  Or, I should say, a potentially former second baseman who will be seeing some time in center field, as the Marlins will try Villar on the outfield grass to free up a position for prospect Isan Diaz.  It could end up being a short-lived audition depending on Villar’s glovework or if Diaz (who had only a .566 OPS over 201 MLB plate appearances in 2019) continues to struggle against Major League pitching.  However, considering that former top prospect Lewis Brinson has also yet to break out at the big league level, there’s no harm for Miami in seeing if Villar can help their center field situation.  If so, it could only enhance his trade value at the deadline, as Villar is only under contract through the end of the season.

The Fish added another veteran regular in Corey Dickerson, who was signed to a $17.5MM deal that covers the 2020-21 seasons.  The outfield was a prime area of need for Miami this winter, as such names as Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia, and — somewhat surprisingly — even Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were considered.  The fact that the Marlins at least checked in on the latter two names could indicate that the team had at least some willingness to really expand their payroll, or it could be that they were simply doing due diligence to see if either Castellanos or Ozuna were willing to lower their asking price.  (As it happened, Ozuna did end up signing a one-year deal, but with the reigning NL East champion Braves.)

In the end, it will be Dickerson who mans left field at Marlins Park, as the 30-year-old looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2019 campaign.  Dickerson was still very productive when healthy, batting .304/.341/.565 over 279 PA with the Pirates and Phillies, and anything close to those numbers would greatly boost a Marlins lineup that was arguably the worst in baseball last season.

In other offensive upgrades, the Marlins claimed Jesus Aguilar in the hopes that he can regain his 35-homer stroke from the 2018 season, and also signed Matt Joyce to share playing time in right field.  Garrett Cooper will see plenty of at-bats as either a first baseman or right fielder, with Aguilar or Joyce (or utilityman Jon Berti, or younger outfield options like Magneuris Sierra or Harold Ramirez) in the mix to handle the other position.

With Jorge Alfaro perhaps questionable for Opening Day due to an oblique injury, Miami’s signing of Francisco Cervelli looks like an even more important move.  Cervelli could end up getting a bit more time behind the plate than expected if Alfaro is on the injured list, though when Alfaro is back, Cervelli will slide into a backup role and offer a bit more seasoned glovework than the somewhat defensively erratic Alfaro.

Cervelli isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s better-hitting catchers, which fits the model of Miami’s approach to their position player acquisitions.  All of these players were solid-to-very good just last year (Joyce), as recently as 2018 (Aguilar, Cervelli, minor league signing Matt Kemp) or in both seasons (Dickerson, Villar).  Should the Marlins get some in-form production from the majority of these new faces and get continued improvement from the likes of Cooper, Alfaro, and Brian Anderson, Miami’s offense could take some pitchers by surprise.

The revamped bullpen also offers some upside, as Brandon Kintzler was signed to be the likely first choice at closer after the veteran righty’s solid 2019 season with the Cubs.  Kintzler is a few years removed from his last closing experience at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, but he’ll handle the ninth behind a core group that includes Ryne Stanek, minor league signing and former All-Star closer Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia, inked to a big league deal after the Dodgers non-tendered him.  Garcia is perhaps the most intriguing of the newcomers, as his peripheral numbers hint at some real talent, were it not for the right-hander’s alarming propensity for allowing home runs.  Pitching at Marlins Park could help that issue to some extent, and if Garcia can more fully limit the damage, he could be something of a steal.

While this winter’s expenditures count as something of a spending spree by Marlins standards, they aren’t doling out any new money.  Villar’s $8.2MM and Miami’s $25.35MM in offseason free agents contracts just about match up to the 2019 salaries of several veterans who are no longer on the books (Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker).  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Marlins’ projected $68.925MM Opening Day payroll is actually lower than their $71.9MM figure from last season’s opener.

In short, the Marlins might not have done enough this winter to escape the ire of the players’ union.  The MLB Players Association has filed an amended grievance against the Marlins (as well as the Pirates and the Rays) for their use of revenue-sharing funds in both the 2018-19 and 2017-18 offseasons.  Given that none of those clubs broke the bank over the last few months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2019-20 offseason also added to this grievance.

It was no surprise that Miami didn’t spend big this winter, as the organization has been very clear about its intentions to build around young talent and resist the quick-fix splurges that often marked the Jeffrey Loria era.  It still might be a couple of years before the Marlins feel they have enough of a core group in place to ramp up spending as the White Sox and Reds did this offseason.

It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move.  Despite interest from multiple teams, the Marlins held onto controllable rotation arms like Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Urena.  Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.

2020 Season Outlook

Will the Marlins lose 105 games again?  The NL East (and pretty much the entire National League) still looks quite competitive, but it seems on paper as if the Fish have done enough to get back down to double digits in the loss column.  Fangraphs projects “only” 95.5 losses for Miami in 2020, which counts as some small victory, but it would still be a big surprise if Miami escaped another last-place finish.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Camp Battles: Cubs’ Second Base Competition

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As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes detailed earlier this week, the Cubs are coming off a rather quiet offseason. There were no earth-shattering trades, no significant free-agent signings. The high-payroll club doled out just $3.5MM in guaranteed contracts over the winter, though it did add at least a couple familiar names by way of the minor league market. One of those pickups, longtime Indian Jason Kipnis, is vying to begin the season as the Cubs’ starting second baseman. The position was a sore spot last year for a what was overall a disappointing Chicago team – one that received little from Ben Zobrist (who missed a sizable portion of the season because of a personal matter), Addison Russell and Daniel Descalso. The lone member of that trio still with the organization is Descalso, who’s competing with Kipnis and a couple others to become rookie manager Davis Ross’ Opening Day choice at the keystone. Here’s a rundown of the quartet that’s in the mix…

  • Jason Kipnis: He was a two-time All-Star in Cleveland during his heyday, but it has been a few years since Kipnis even came close to putting up average offensive production. The 32-year-old’s .245/.304/.410 line in 511 plate appearances in 2019 helped prevent him from scoring a guaranteed contract in his first trip to free agency. Kipnis was much better during the second half of the season, though, and the left-handed hitter was playable against right-handed pitchers. As someone who has regularly performed better versus righties than southpaws, he could wind up as part of a platoon for the Cubs.
  • Daniel Descalso: The normally light-hitting Descalso had a solid season with the Diamondbacks in 2018, thereby convincing the Cubs to give him a two-year, $5MM guarantee in the ensuing winter. Thus far, however, the deal has blown up in the team’s face. Descalso, 33, limped to a .173/.271/.250 line with just two home runs in 194 trips to the plate. Along the way, his ISO (.077) dropped off 121 points from the prior season, while his strikeout and walk rates also trended in the wrong direction.
  • David Bote: The versatile Bote, 26, recorded adequate numbers for the second straight year in 2019, slashing .257/.362/.422 with 11 homers and 1.5 fWAR in 356 PA. On paper, it may make sense to attempt a platoon between the right-handed Bote and Kipnis, but Bote actually posted far superior production versus same-handed pitchers than southpaws last season.
  • Nico Hoerner: The 22-year-old Hoerner debuted with the Cubs last September, at which point the recent first-round pick (No. 24 in 2018) was regarded as a top-50 prospect. Hoerner ultimately didn’t log great numbers in his initial taste of MLB action (.282/.305/.436), but it was just an 82-PA sample; furthermore, it was the first time Hoerner had even played above the Double-A ball, making it all the more understandable he didn’t light the league on fire in his initial try. Hoerner may end up as Chicago’s long-term solution at second, but if the club doesn’t think he’s ready yet, it’ll have the option of sending him to Triple-A Iowa for more seasoning and regular playing time.

How Much Would It Cost The White Sox To Extend Lucas Giolito?

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The White Sox have already reached new agreements with a host of players of late, with Yoan Moncada recently joining Aaron Bummer, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu just this winter. Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez inked deals previously. So … what’s one more?

The starting rotation is noticeably underrepresented from the ranks of the extended core. While a few hurlers could become candidates in short order, there’s probably only one who’s really primed for a deal: Lucas Giolito.

Giolito’s path is remarkably similar to that of Moncada. They both came over in back-to-back trades in the 2016-17 offseason — each of which, somewhat ironically, involved White Sox stars (Chris Sale and Adam Eaton) who had loads of trade value thanks to their own early-career extensions. There were some growing pains and moments of doubt for the long-hyped Giolito and Moncada. Then came 2019 …

While the White Sox weren’t all that competitive as a team last year, they had some exceedingly promising outcomes from individual players. On the pitching side, nobody came close to Giolito, who was one of the top dozen or so starters leaguewide. He completely reversed a miserable 2018 season, vaulting to new personal highs in velocity (94.6 mph average fastball), swinging-strike rate (15.0%), and K%-BB% (24.2%).

There’s not much to dislike about Giolito’s effort. He didn’t excel at limiting the long ball, but was slightly better than the league mean in homers allowed (1.22) and homers-per-flyball rate (13.6%). Statcast indicated that Giolito largely deserved the outcomes, crediting opposing hitters with a meager .275 wOBA and .280 xwOBA. Giolito dominated opposing lefties in 2019. There were health concerns when Giolito was drafted, but he already got Tommy John surgery out of the way and has mostly been healthy since. (He ended 2019 with a mild lat injury and is now dealing with a pec issue, but both seem rather minor.)

The question, really, is one of faith. Giolito is only 25 years of age and has a top-shelf pedigree. The results finally matched. So do the White Sox let things play out through arbitration — like Moncada, Giolito is still a full season shy of arb qualification and four campaigns removed from free agency — or chase yet further upside with yet another extension?

That may depend upon the cost. While Giolito was a first-round pick, he fell to the 16th pick of the 2012 draft. He still got a big signing bonus, but at just under $3MM it was less than a tenth of what Moncada commanded. For a pitcher that has already dealt with some health issues, and hasn’t yet reached that first big payday, there’s definitely greater sense in selling away some earning ceiling in exchange for security.

Giolito wouldn’t be the first starting pitcher to do so. In fact, this stage of a career — just before arbitration — is quite the popular time for hurler and team to line up on a deal. Jon Lester’s 2009 pact with the Red Sox — five years, $30MM plus an option — proved a market-setting contract. The total guarantee has crept up a bit in some cases in recent years and we’ve seen various ways of tweaking the model, but that’s still the core structure of many such contracts.

In this case, the White Sox would probably be thrilled to slot Giolito into that five-year, mid-thirty plus option(s) sort of a deal. There’s really not all that much risk. Sure, you’d always rather pay less for more, but even one more elite season or a couple of good-but-not-great efforts would justify that sort of cost. And there are loads of scenarios where the organization could clean up. The team just promised Bummer, a non-closing (for now) reliever, $16MM. Doubling that (plus change) for a high-end starter is more or less a no-brainer unless the club has some inside cause for concern.

All that points to an argument that Giolito really shouldn’t be slotted into the classic form of Lester and progeny. After all, lower-ceiling lefty Marco Gonzales just got a $30MM guarantee over four years with a single option. Giolito looks more like German Marquez, who recently commanded $42MM+ on a four-year term while giving up one option year.

Then again, perhaps Giolito can present a case for something more akin to the deal inked between Blake Snell and the Rays. That accord included over $49MM of new money and only required Snell to hand over control over one would-be free agent season — one less than the other two deals just discussed — thus leaving him more future earning upside. Snell’s Cy Young Award gave him a boost, to be sure, but his pact also came together on the heels of a weak market for free agent pitchers. We just saw Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg blow the top off of the rotation market.

It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out, if indeed serious talks occur. Maybe Giolito will get a Snell-like agreement but fall a bit short in terms of guaranteed cash. Or perhaps he’ll look to build upon the Marquez deal, giving up that extra season of control (in Giolito’s case, his age-30 season) to boost the up-front cash promise. Regardless, I’ll go ahead and guess that a contract would land in the realm of a $45MM guarantee.

Photo courtey of USA Today Sports Images.

9 AL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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We’ve already looked at potential bounce-back candidates from the American League West and the AL East. Let’s now move to the AL Central and begin with established hitters who may be able to rebound in 2020.

Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins:

The free-swinging Rosario was a 32-home run hitter last season, but despite that, his fWAR plummeted from 3.5 in 2018 to 1.2. His overall line in 590 plate appearances (.276/.300/.500 – good for a 103 wRC+) was close to average, owing in part to the sport’s fifth-lowest walk rate (3.7 percent). And whereas Rosario received positive marks as a fielder in 2018, he notched minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-5.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and the game’s worst Outs Above Average mark (minus-17) a year ago.

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians:

Ramirez was one of the most valuable players in baseball from 2017-18, though a slow start and a 5 percent-plus drop in walk rate last year doomed the switch hitter to a mediocre .255/.327/.479 line in 542 plate appearances. That said, Ramirez still finished with 23 homers, 24 steals and 3.3 fWAR, so he wasn’t exactly a drain on Cleveland’s lineup. And Ramirez was infinitely better after the All-Star break (176 wRC+ in the second half, 68 in the first), giving the Indians hope he’ll be at his best from the get-go this year.

Franmil Reyes, DH/OF, Indians:

While Ramirez came alive in the second half of the season, Reyes was somewhat disappointing after the Indians acquired him from the Padres in July. The 24-year-old still concluded with 37 HRs, but he saw his wRC+ (109) drop by 20 points from the prior season and his on-base percentage go down by 30 points. In all, he was a .249/.310/.512 hitter. Nevertheless, the powerful 24-year-old did rank in baseball’s 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 99th percentile in average exit velocity.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH, Tigers:

Cabrera is undoubtedly one of the greatest hitters of all-time, but it’s fair to say he’s nowhere near the offensive force he was during his halcyon days. Thanks in part to knee problems, the 36-year-old was pedestrian at the plate in 2019, when he batted .282/.346/.398 with 12 home runs and a career-low ISO (.116) across 549 appearances. Cabrera also posted one of the lowest walk percentages of his career (8.7) and, according to Statcast, saw his average exit velocity fall by 4 mph and his hard-hit rate drop by 10 percent compared to the numbers he logged during an injury-shortened 2018. Regardless of whether Cabrera rebounds, the Tigers aren’t going to contend in 2020. However, it would be reassuring for the team to see a glimpse of vintage Cabrera, who’s still owed $132MM through 2023.

C.J. Cron, 1B, Tigers:

One of Cabrera’s newest teammates in Detroit, Cron’s coming off a so-so season with the division-rival Twins. Although Cron did hit 25 home runs, the type of production he recorded as a Ray the previous season wasn’t really there. He wound up with a .253/.311/.469 line (101 wRC+, down from 123 in 2018) over 499 trips to the plate. There were some positive signs, though: Cron’s strikeout rate went down by 4.5 percent, his swinging-strike percentage declined by roughly 2 percent and he was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the league in several categories – including hard-hit percentage (82nd percentile), average exit velocity (84th) and expected weighted on-base average (86th).

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers:

Candelario was a 2.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season in the majors, but devolved into a replacement-level performer last season. The switch-hitting 26-year-old batted a weak .203/.306/.337 with eight homers in 386 PA, and the Tigers banished him to the minors for a good portion of the season because of his uninspiring output at the sport’s highest level. Statcast didn’t offer any reasons for hope, either, ranking Candelario in the game’s 17th percentile in xwOBA, its 24th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 31st percentile in average exit velocity.

Salvador Perez, C, Royals:

The typically durable Perez, 29, didn’t play at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, though it seems he’s coming along well in his recovery. Assuming he does stay on track, the Royals will have to hope for better numbers than what the highly respected six-time All-Star offered when he last took the field in 2018. Back then, Perez registered an unspectacular .235/.274/.439 line in 544 PA and earned bottom-of-the-barrel grades as a pitch framer; however, he did throw out an incredible 48 percent of would-be base stealers.

Maikel Franco, 3B, Royals:

Once a quality prospect, Franco seldom lived up to the hype in Philadelphia from 2014-19. Last season was especially rough for Franco, who hit a disastrous .234/.297/.409 in 428 attempts en route to minus-0.5 fWAR. The rebuilding Royals then bought low on Franco in free agency, signing him for a $2.95MM guarantee. Franco’s still just 27, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration in 2021, so he’s worth a shot for Kansas City.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Royals:

O’Hearn was fantastic during his 170-PA major league debut in 2018, but things fell apart over a much larger sample size last season. The 26-year-old amassed 370 PA and stumbled to a .195/.281/.369 showing. A 63-point drop in batting average on balls in play (.230) didn’t help, though, and O’Hearn did put up above-average exit velocity and hard-hit marks. However, he only ranked in the league’s 24th percentile in xwOBA (.308, compared to a .279 real wOBA).

8 AL East Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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After taking a look at eight American League East hitters hoping to bounce back from down seasons in 2020, we’ll do the same here with an octet of the division’s pitchers…

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Red Sox:

The flamethrowing Eovaldi was one of Boston’s many heroes during its World Series run in 2018, convincing the team to re-sign him to a four-year, $68MM contract thereafter. But the first year of the pact was a disaster for both sides, as Eovaldi missed significant time with elbow problems and didn’t perform well when he was able to pitch. The 30-year-old wound up with career-worst numbers in ERA (5.99), FIP (5.90) and BB/9 (4.66), thereby offsetting a personal-high K/9 of 9.31. There’s optimism he’ll rebound this year, which would be a boon for a Red Sox team that just traded David Price and has seen elbow issues weigh down Chris Sale this spring.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox:

Speaking of Sale, the longtime ace simply didn’t deliver the type of results we had grown accustomed to seeing last season. The 30-year-old was still awfully good, notching 13.32 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9, but turned in a bloated ERA (4.40) and FIP (3.39) in comparison to prior campaigns. He also saw his mean fastball velocity dip by over a mile an hour from the prior couple years, as he averaged 93.2 mph with the pitch. That’s not what the Red Sox wanted after signing Sale to a five-year, $145MM extension last spring. Considering that deal won’t even take effect until this season, it’ll be all the worse for the Red Sox if his current elbow injury proves to be serious.

Blake Snell, LHP, Rays:

Like Sale, Snell turned in fine numbers last year. However, in terms of bottom-line production, he wasn’t the Cy Young winner we witnessed the previous season, owing in part to elbow troubles that required arthroscopic surgery in late July. Snell ultimately totaled 107 innings of 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP ball after putting up 1.89 and 2.85 in those respective categories during the prior campaign. There was still plenty to like, however, including 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9, a fastball that stayed in the 95-96 mph range and swinging-strike rate (17.7) that climbed more than 2.5 percent from his superb 2018 effort. Once again, though, there are some health questions in play. Snell may miss the start of the regular season after undergoing a cortisone shot in his elbow last week.

Jose Alvarado, LHP, Rays:

He was somewhat quietly among the elite relievers in baseball in 2018, but last year didn’t go nearly as well for Alvarado. The 24-year-old did average a whopping 98.2 mph on his fastball and strike out 11.7 batters per nine, though an untenable walk rate (8.1 BB/9, up almost double from the previous season) led to a 4.80 ERA/4.18 FIP in 30 innings. To be fair to Alvarado, he wasn’t healthy all that often in 2019, missing time with oblique and elbow injuries. He also sat out for a while because of a family matter.

J.A. Happ, LHP, Yankees:

Happ had a career-best stretch with multiple teams from 2015-18, which persuaded the Yankees to re-sign him to a two-year, $34MM contract heading into 2019. The decision doesn’t look great so far, though, as Happ stumbled to a 4.91 ERA/5.22 FIP in 161 2/3 innings last season. Along the way, his strikeouts per nine (7.81) dropped by almost two full batters from the previous season, while his home run-to-fly ball rate (18.3) jumped by about 5 percent. Now, it’s imperative for the Yankees that they get a bounce-back effort from Happ, considering the well-documented hardships they’re suddenly facing in their rotation. And there’s a lot at stake for the 37-year-old Happ, whose $17MM option for 2021 will vest if he accumulates 165 innings or 27 starts this season.

Alex Cobb, RHP, Orioles:

Back and hip injuries limited Cobb to just three starts in 2019 (all in April), the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract that has blown up in Baltimore’s face so far. Cobb had a horrific time in the 12 1/3 innings he did pitch last year, yielding 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including an eye-popping nine homers).

Mychal Givens, RHP, Orioles:

Givens was an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout last season, but the Orioles decided not to sell low on him during a career-worst year. Like many pitchers in 2019, the 29-year-old proved extremely susceptible to the home run, giving them up on 22.8 percent of fly balls en route to a 4.57 ERA/4.50 FIP with eight blown saves in 19 attempts; he also registered a below-average walk rate of 3.71 per nine. On the bright side, though, Givens fanned a career-high 12.29 batters per nine and continued to average better than 95 mph on his fastball. With this being his penultimate year of team control, Givens continues to look like a trade candidate for Baltimore, but the team won’t get a max return if he doesn’t revisit his old form.

Richard Bleier, LHP, Orioles:

Despite a dearth of strikeouts and a lack of velocity, Bleier offered lights-out results as a member of the Yankees’ and Orioles’ bullpens from 2016-18. Last year was more of the same in terms of strikeouts, walks and grounders (4.88 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 59.9 percent GB rate), but the run prevention wasn’t there. Bleier ended up with a horrid 5.37 ERA (with a more encouraging 4.19 FIP) over 55 1/3 innings. While Bleier continued to hold down same-handed hitters, who posted a weak .238 weighted on-base average off him, righties tattooed him for a .410 wOBA. In other words, the average righty hit like the 2019 version of Anthony Rendon against Bleier.

8 AL East Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:

Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.

Mike Zunino, C, Rays:

After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.

Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:

Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:

Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:

Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.

Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:

Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.

Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:

Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.

Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs declined to pull the trigger on a significant trade and chose to spend next to nothing in free agency.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

If you’re looking for a microcosm of the Cubs’ offseason, consider veteran reliever Alex Claudio.  Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote back in December that, “Before Claudio signed with the Brewers for $1.75 million, the Cubs had made it clear they were interested. But they needed to clear money first, so he signed with Milwaukee.”  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote just days earlier, “[Cubs] officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.”

It was a winter marked by the Cubs’ small-market division rivals outbidding them on low- to mid-tier free agents.  Aside from Claudio, the Cubs reportedly had discussions with starting pitcher Josh Lindblom, who ultimately signed with the Brewers for three years and $9.125MM.  The luxury tax hit for the Cubs on Lindblom would have been $3.04MM.  Instead, the Cubs are slotting in Tyler Chatwood as their fifth starter, a signing that itself may never have happened had the Cubs not been outbid by the Cardinals for expat Miles Mikolas in December 2017.  The backup plan behind Chatwood appears to be Jharel Cotton, who last pitched in the Majors two and a half years ago.  The Brewers wound up committing $52.125MM across nine free agents including infielder of interest Eric Sogard ($4.5MM) as well as Swiss army knife Brock Holt ($3.25MM).  So the Cubs’ plan at second base will be Nico Hoerner with backup from minor league signing Jason Kipnis and veteran Daniel Descalso.

The Cubs entered the offseason with a clear need in center field, reportedly meeting with Shogo Akiyama at the Winter Meetings.  Akiyama instead signed with the Reds for three years and $21MM.  The Diamondbacks, another Akiyama suitor, moved on to Starling Marte.  The Cubs moved on to Steven Souza Jr., a $1MM right field short-side platoon partner for Jason Heyward. Souza missed all of 2019 due to “an ACL tear, LCL tear, partial PCL tear, and posterior lateral capsule tear in his left knee.”  It’s not that he’s a bad pickup — he’s had success in the past and now feels 100% after a grueling rehab process — but that the signing was the biggest move of the Cubs’ offseason is rather eye-opening.  The Cubs will hope that Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. can provide more production than they received at the position in 2019.  Aside from Akiyama, the Cubs will also face new Red Nick Castellanos 19 times this year.  The Cubs had interest in keeping Castellanos after he mashed for them in the season’s final two months, but they were never going to pony up $64MM.

The bullpen holdovers have question marks from top to bottom, and that starts with Craig Kimbrel.  If we’re going to discuss the team’s lack of spending, it’s worth noting that they flexed some financial muscle when they signed Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM deal shortly after last June’s draft.  Bolstering the ’pen in 2020 and 2021 was definitely a big part of that signing — but it’s hard to know whether that’ll be the outcome after Kimbrel posted a 6.53 ERA in 20 2/3 innings and spent time on the IL.

The Cubs added pitchers like Jeffress, Tepera, Winkler, Sadler, Megill, and Morrow to the ’pen, giving them more potential bargains but no additional certainty.  The team would probably feel better had it come away with one of the winter’s top free agent relievers, but a look at the previous winter’s crop — and the early returns of their own Kimbrel addition — shows the massive risk inherent in spending big bucks in the bullpen.  Doubling down after getting burned in year one of the Kimbrel deal would’ve been risky.  The team’s plan of making minor commitments and hoping their Pitch Lab can unearth a few gems actually makes sense.

Back in early December, I was sure the Cubs would at least be willing to spend up to what the collective bargaining agreement calls the “First Surcharge Threshold,” which is $228MM in 2020.  That would have meant paying a 30% tax on money spent between $208-228MM.  Maybe the team hasn’t yet realized a revenue bump from their new Marquee Sports Network, but given the team’s window of control over key players, spending now and resetting later seemed like the logical choice.  Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein stated on October 30th, “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all.  I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”  

Cubs ownership apparently didn’t get the memo, as Tom Ricketts commented extensively on the “dead-weight loss” of paying the competitive balance tax.  The Cubs paid $7.6MM toward the luxury tax for 2019.  Ricketts’ comments have generally served to muddy the waters about this tax, with disingenuous references to losing draft picks.  The fact is that a team only gets its top draft pick moved back ten places if it reaches the “Second Surcharge Threshold,” which is $248MM for 2020 — a level to which the Cubs are not remotely close.  Tom and his sister Laura also referenced how the penalties increase if a team exceeds the Base Tax Threshold repeatedly.  That’s true, and I could see how the Cubs might not want to be a third-time CBT payor in 2021.  With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood coming off the books in ’21, that may indeed be a time to reset and get below $210MM.  But the Cubs’ inaction this winter suggests an extreme reluctance to go past this year’s $208MM base threshold, even though capping payroll at $228MM for ’20 would result in a maximum tax bill of $6MM — lower than what they paid for 2019.

On September 30th, Epstein said, “Next year is a priority.  We have to balance it with the future. And probably that’s more important now than it was even a year ago, because we’re now just two years away from a lot of our best players reaching the end of their period of control with the Cubs.”  In other words, the team’s window runs through 2021, after which Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber can become free agents.  While Epstein said recently “you can’t be blind to the realities of the following 18 months,” Ricketts feels that “we can stop talking about windows.”  Ricketts’ stated goal of “building a division-winning team every year” seems at odds with the notion of spending $3.5MM on free agents because you don’t like paying a 30% tax.

Though we knew payroll was a concern, the Cubs surprised us by topping out at Souza’s $1MM in free agency.  That surprise was compounded by the team’s failure to make a significant trade.  As of December, a major trade or two seemed inevitable.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote, “The Chicago Cubs have been, according to various executives, ’aggressive,’ ’manic,’ ’motivated’ and ’obvious’ in their desire to trade someone. Or someones. The Cubs are going to make a move. They’re just not sure what yet.”

It seems the Cubs had extensive trade talks involving Bryant, with rumored connections to the Braves and Padres, among others.  But with Bryant’s grievance decision dragging until January 29th and reported “sky-high asking prices,” the Cubs did not find a deal to their liking.  Without knowing what was offered for Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, and others, it’s impossible to say whether Epstein made the right call.  Eventually, some of these players will be traded, whether at this year’s July trade deadline or in the 2020-21 offseason.  If there’s an obvious extension candidate among the bunch, it’s probably Baez, who acknowledged some “up and down” extension talks with the team this winter.

[RELATED: Grading Theo Epstein’s Cubs Free Agent Signings]

In the end, the Cubs’ biggest offseason acquisition turned out to be manager David Ross.  If the players’ complacency under Joe Maddon wasn’t clear before, consider this damning quote from Baez last month: “A lot of players were doing the same as me.  They were getting loose during the game. You can lose the game in the first inning. Sometimes when you’re not ready and the other team scored by something simple, I feel like it was cause of that. It was cause we weren’t ready.”

2020 Season Outlook

During the Winter Meetings, when a shakeup still seemed likely, Epstein commented, “Status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.”  To that end, the Cubs failed.  Epstein’s assessment at the time on what the status quo would mean: “I’d feel like we’d have one of the most talented teams in the league but that we’d have some areas of exposure where we’d need a lot of things to go right.” 

That sums up the state of the 2020 Cubs perfectly — question marks persist at second base, center field, right field, fifth starter, and across the bullpen, but it’s still a talented team that should contend.  FanGraphs gives the Cubs an 85-win projection and 51.6% chance at the playoffs, much like they did last April after a winter of inaction.  If the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals are behind the Cubs, it isn’t by much, and the Cubs did nothing in the offseason to widen the gap.

How would you grade the team’s offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Camp Battles: Yankees’ Rotation

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It wasn’t long ago that the Yankees possessed what looked like a surefire elite rotation on paper. They signed superstar Gerrit Cole for a record $324MM during the offseason, and the plan was for him to lead a group with two other front-end starters (Luis Severino and James Paxton) and a pair of established complements (Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ). Sadly for the Yankees, though, the injury troubles that dogged them throughout last season haven’t relented in the new year. They’ve already lost Severino for 2020 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last week. That means this will be the second straight lost year for the electrifying Severino, who was essentially robbed of a 2019 on the mound because of shoulder and lat problems. The oft-injured Paxton will sit out until May or June as a result of back surgery, meanwhile, and the Yankees will also go without the services of Domingo German for 63 games because of a domestic violence suspension.

The Yankees have known for a while there would be no German to begin the season, but the Severino and Paxton injuries are sizable, unexpected shots to their rotation. They’re now facing multiple question marks in their starting staff after Cole, Tanaka and Happ, at least until Paxton and German come back (judging by his 2019, even Happ’s no lock to offer decent production). It seems lefty Jordan Montgomery is the odds-on favorite to begin 2020 as the Yankees’ No. 4 starter. If the Yankees get the 2017 version of Montgomery who held his own as a rookie, they’ll be in fine shape. But Montgomery combined for just 31 1/3 major league innings from 2018-19 (four last season) in the wake of Tommy John surgery on his left elbow, so no one really knows what he’ll provide going forward.

Cole, Tanaka, Happ and Montgomery aside, who else could open the season in the Yankees’ top five? Let’s examine several of the candidates vying for the role this spring…

Leading Contenders:

  • Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP: With his 96 mph fastball, Loaisiga can be electric, but the 25-year-old hasn’t had much success going deep in games during a small amount of major league starts. Furthermore, control has been a problem for Loaisiga since he debuted in 2018. While Loaisiga has fanned upward of 11 hitters per nine across 56 1/3 innings (24 appearances, eight starts), a 4.47 BB/9 has helped lead to an unspectacular 4.79 ERA/4.33 FIP.
  • Clarke Schmidt, RHP: The 24-year-old, hard-throwing Schmidt has never pitched above the Double-A level, but he’s a recent first-round pick (2017) who has opened eyes with five innings of one-run, six-strikeout ball this spring. That’s not much of a sample size, but Schmidt has impressed at multiple minor league levels since undergoing TJ surgery in his draft year. He currently ranks as the Yankees’ second-best prospect at Baseball America, which writes that he has the “ceiling of a midrotation starter.”
  • Deivi Garcia, RHP: Speaking of high-end prospects, Garcia’s right in line with Schmidt when it comes to promising Yankees farmhands (BA has him third in the team’s system). Although he’s undersized at 5-foot-9, 163 pounds, that didn’t prevent Garcia from reaching Triple-A ball at the age of 20 last year. It didn’t go well (5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP in 40 innings), but it’s hard to get down on someone so young for struggling at the highest level of the minors. With that in mind, though, it may be too ambitious to expect him to be ready for the majors in a few weeks.
  • Mike King, RHP: King’s yet another prospect (New York’s 13th-best at BA), though he does carry a bit of MLB experience, having made one appearance and thrown two innings with the Yankees last September. That made for a good ending to the season for King, whom the Yankees acquired from the Marlins in a notable trade in 2017, after a stress fracture limited him to fewer than 50 professional frames in 2019. The 24-year-old thrived in the minors the year before, however.
  • Chad Bettis, RHP: Bettis, whom the Yankees signed to a minor league contract just over two weeks ago, brings the most experience to the table of anyone in the mix. The 30-year-old appeared in 164 games and started 92 with the Rockies from 2013-19, during which he was fairly successful at times (specifically from 2015-16). Bettis is now coming off a rough season that he mostly spent in Colorado’s bullpen, as he pitched to a 6.08 ERA/5.16 FIP and struck out fewer than six batters per nine over 63 2/3 innings before undergoing hip surgery in August. On the bright side, he did post his highest average fastball velocity in years (93 mph) and log a tremendous 60.2 percent groundball rate.
  • Luis Cessa, RHP: Like Bettis, Cessa’s an elder statesman relative to most of this bunch. The 27-year-old has 86 games and 19 starts under his belt in the majors, where he has amassed 232 innings. Cessa throws hard (upward of 94 mph), but it hasn’t translated to big-time results as a member of the Yankees, with whom he owns a 4.50 ERA/4.98 FIP. After spending last season in the bullpen, it seems he’s ticketed for a similar role this year, meaning his chances of earning the fifth spot in New York’s rotation appear quite slim.

Other Possibilities?

If the Yankees aren’t content to roll with this group until Paxton and German return, perhaps they’ll scour the trade, free-agent and/or waiver markets (alternatively, they could deploy an opener such as Chad Green). They’ve already shown interest in Mets lefty Steven Matz, but a deal between the two New York rivals looks like a long shot. We also explored some other potential trade targets for the Yankees last week, but those hurlers admittedly look as if they make more sense as in-season targets. And while free agency looks to be devoid of impact arms at this point, maybe it wouldn’t hurt to take a low-risk flier on a veteran(s) who’s still seeking an opportunity.

Camp Battles: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

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The Blue Jays finally made some rotation investments this winter. Most of the money went to Hyun-jin Ryu, but Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson (the latter acquired via trade) each also enjoy sizable guarantees that lock them into the starting staff. With a $4.2MM arbitration deal, Matt Shoemaker is also slated for a rotation spot.

So what of all the arms the Jays have been accumulating of late? The club has loaded its roster with options. They’re now engaged in a sort of battle royale in camp, all striving to impress the Toronto brain trust. The fifth rotation spot is certainly the top prize to be claimed. But the bullpen mix is anything but settled, offering additional paths to the majors. And the Jays will also be lining up their depth chart in the upper minors. 40-man roster pressures could force the club to drop a few players, so the competitors face downside scenarios as well.

Here’s the slate of candidates …

  • Trent Thornton: The 26-year-old held down a rotation spot last year, ultimately throwing 154 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA ball in his debut campaign. He entered camp as the odds-on favorite and is probably the sturdiest candidate with a solid-but-not-exceptional minor-league track record, varied pitch mix, and full season of durable MLB work on his resume.
  • Shun Yamaguchi: The long-time Japanese star will be on the MLB roster in some manner after signing a two-year deal. He was a highly effective starter in Nippon Professional Baseball just last year, but also has spent a lot of time working at the back of a bullpen.
  • Anthony Kay: The well-regarded lefty had a nice showing at Triple-A last year after coming over via mid-season trade and was rewarded with a late-season promotion. His full 2019 totals from the upper minors — 133 2/3 innings, 2.96 ERA, 9.1 K/9 vs. 3.8 BB/9 — suggest that Kay is just about ready for a full big-league audition.
  • Jacob Waguespack: Yet another recent acquisition who got his first shot in the majors last year with the Jays, Waguespack had to be pleased with his initial showing (4.38 ERA, 63:29 K/BB in 78 innings). His deep pitch mix and general track record present a profile roughly similar to that of Thornton.
  • T.J. Zeuch: Yep, Zeuch also just saw his first MLB action last year, though he’s a homegrown product and only threw 22 2/3 frames in the majors. The sinkerballer spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked to a 3.69 ERA in 78 frames while generating a 57.1% groundball rate but just 4.5 K/9. Zeuch did show that he can get some swings and misses (9.9%) in the majors, it’s fair to note.
  • Sean Reid-Foley: The former second-round draft pick has struck out 10.1 batters per nine in his minor-league career. Unfortunately, he has never really sorted out his walk issues, having dished out 86 free passes in 120 2/3 total innings last year. Reid-Foley spent most of 2019 at Triple-A, where he coughed up 6.47 earned runs per nine over 89 frames.
  • Ryan Borucki: Still just 25 years of age, Borucki had a nice 2018 big-league debut. But after 17 starts of 3.87 ERA ball in his rookie campaign, the southpaw stumbled through an injury-limited 2019 season. Borucki surely would’ve been given every chance to make a run at a rotation job in camp but has unfortunately been halted by ongoing elbow issues. He’ll need to get healthy to put himself back on the map.
  • Wilmer Font: Font is something of a grizzled journeyman already at 29 years of age. He has already appeared with seven MLB clubs, including five in the past two seasons. Font started 14 games last year for the Jays but threw only 39 1/3 innings in his 23 total appearances in Toronto. While he has plenty of experience in the minors as a true starter, Font likely factors as a possible opener or spot start candidate rather than a true competitor for the fifth rotation opening.
  • Yennsy Diaz: Diaz was rewarded with one MLB appearance last year after a strong season at Double-A (144 1/3 innings, 3.74 ERA, 7.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9). The 23-year-old would need to wow in camp. He’s likelier to continue developing in the minors.
  • Tom Hatch, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Julian Merryweather: These four righties all hold 40-man roster spots and have yet to debut in the majors. The first three haven’t yet reached Triple-A, while Merryweather is coming off of an injury riddled 2019 season.
  • Nate Pearson: Soon enough. Other non-roster players in camp include MLB veterans Phillippe Aumont and A.J. Cole, though neither seems likely to have a realistic shot at a rotation job out of the gates.

Camp Battles: Boston’s Rotation

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Boston’s season-opening rotation is going to look quite a bit different than we could have imagined just a few weeks ago. Gone is left-hander David Price, whom the Red Sox traded to the Dodgers less than a month ago. Fellow southpaw Chris Sale – the team’s No. 1 starter – is still in the fold, but he’ll open the campaign on the 15-day injured list as a result of a pneumonia that has slowed him this spring. Price’s departure and the temporary absence of Sale leaves the Red Sox with just three hurlers – Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez – who are shoo-ins to begin 2020 in their rotation. So, even if not for Sale’s illness, they’d still be looking for someone to claim a spot in their rotation in the coming weeks.

Boston’s led by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be an executive with a Tampa Bay team that spearheaded the opener strategy. Manager Ron Roenicke admitted last week the Red Sox could mimic the AL East rival Rays in that regard (via Chad Jennings of The Athletic; subscription link).

“We can do (an opener) with two spots in the rotation,” Roenicke said. “But we’ll see if someone emerges and covers one of those spots (as a traditional starter).”

If the Red Sox do want to find at least one more conventional starter before the season, and if they’re not going to venture outside the organization to get one (which is a possibility), whom could they turn to from within? Let’s take a look at some of their options…

  • Ryan Weber, RHP: The 29-year-old Weber has pitched in the majors for the Braves, Mariners, Rays and Red Sox since 2015, but he hasn’t experienced much success in the bigs. Weber’s fastball averaged under 89 mph last year as a member of the Red Sox, with whom he struggled to a 5.09 ERA (with a much better 4.20 FIP) and 6.42 K/9, 1.77 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent groundball rate across a career-high 40 2/3 innings. While Weber worked mostly as a reliever in 2019, the Red Sox are optimistic about his chances of turning into a capable starter or at least a bulk pitcher, thanks to increased reliance on a cutter.
  • Chris Mazza, RHP: Mazza debuted in MLB last season with the Mets at the age of 29, but he yielded 10 earned runs on 21 hits during that 16 1/3-inning span. To Mazza’s credit, he was far better last year in Triple-A, where he put up a 3.67 ERA/3.85 FIP with 7.34 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 and a lofty 58 percent groundball rate across 76 frames.The Mets cut Mazza loose after the season, and he ended up with the Red Sox via waivers.
  • Mike Shawaryn, RHP: Shawaryn, 25, was a fifth-rounder of the Red Sox in 2016 who climbed to the majors for the first time last season. It didn’t go well; even though Shawaryn racked up 29 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings, he surrendered 22 earned runs on 26 hits and issued 13 walks. And he wasn’t great with Triple-A Pawtucket, either, evidenced by a 4.52 ERA/5.65 FIP with 7.63 K/9 and 4.92 BB/9 in 89 2/3 frames.
  • Kyle Hart, LHP: A 19th-round pick of the Red Sox in 2016, Hart has consistently prevented runs at a solid clip in the minors, where he has never posted an ERA above the threes at any level. The 27-year-old made his Triple-A debut in 2019 and logged a 3.86 ERA/4.32 FIP with 7.18 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9 over 100 1/3 innings.
  • Hector Velazquez, RHP: The 31-year-old threw upward of 100 effective innings for the Red Sox from 2017-18, but things went downhill last season. Owing in part to a career-worst 4.47 BB/9 and a personal-low 38.6 percent groundball rate, Velazquez ended up with a 5.43 ERA/4.74 FIP in 56 1/3 innings.
  • Matt Hall, LHP: Hall, 26, joined the Red Sox in a minor trade with the Tigers in January. The spin rate darling has enjoyed some success in the minors, shown in part by a 4.25 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 144 Triple-A innings, but has allowed almost 10 runs per nine with 5.17 BB/9 in a smaller sample of major league frames (31 1/3).
  • Phillips Valdez, RHP: Valdez was a waiver pickup from the Mariners just last week. He got his first taste of MLB action with the Rangers a season ago, and while he pitched to a 3.94 ERA, averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine and induced grounders at a 53.3 percent clip, he walked more than five per nine at the same time. And Valdez wasn’t as good at Triple-A, where he recorded a 4.92 ERA/5.59 FIP with 7.44 K/9 and 4.12 BB/9 in 78 2/3 innings of work.
  • Brian Johnson, LHP: Unlike the names listed above, Johnson’s not on Boston’s 40-man roster, meaning he’s facing an especially steep climb to begin the season in the majors. Now 29, Johnson turned in passable numbers as a member of the Red Sox in 2017-18, but health problems helped hold the soft-tossing southpaw to a 6.02 ERA/5.32 FIP in 40 1/3 innings last year, when he walked over five hitters per nine.

If you don’t find Boston’s back-end rotation choices enthralling, it’s hard to blame you. For all we know, though, Bloom will end up going outside for help – something he seems open to doing – whether via free agency, the trade market, waivers or some combination.

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