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MLBTR Originals

A Front-Line Starter Who Got Away From The Rangers

By Connor Byrne | May 8, 2020 at 7:13pm CDT

Going back to his first season in the majors in 2014, just 11 other starters have outdone Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks’ 3.14 ERA. That owes largely to an ability to limit walks, as Hendricks has issued just a bit over two free passes per nine innings during his career, as well a penchant for preventing damaging contact. Even though his typical fastball only clocks in around 86 mph, hitters can’t seem to square up Hendricks. Just last season, he ranked in the majors’ 97th percentile in exit velocity and its 88th percentile in hard-hit rate. It went down as yet another quality effort by Hendricks, who turned in a 3.46 ERA/3.61 FIP with his second-highest fWAR (4.1) across 177 innings.

Not many could have expected Hendricks to pan out this well. The Rangers chose the former Dartmouth standout in the eighth round in 2011 (keep that in mind when unpicked players start signing after this year’s truncated five-round draft); although he went on to put up great production at the lower levels with the Rangers, he was never seen as a can’t-miss prospect. And at the July 2012 trade deadline, a little over a year after the Rangers drafted Hendricks, they traded him and third baseman Christian Villanueva (then a top 100-caliber prospect but now a member of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball) to the Cubs for veteran righty Ryan Dempster.

Dempster, who originally entered the pros as a third-rounder of the Rangers in 1995, got off to a strong start in 2012 before the Cubs traded him back to his original franchise. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote when the swap occurred: “Dempster posted a 2.25 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 42.1% ground ball rate in 104 innings with the Cubs this year.”

Unfortunately for Texas, Dempster was unable to carry his Windy City effectiveness to the Lone Star State. While the Rangers did earn a playoff berth in 2012, they didn’t make it past the one-game wild-card round, and Dempster didn’t play much of a role in their regular-season success. He wound up tossing 69 innings of 5.09 ERA ball with the team before leaving for the Red Sox in free agency during the ensuing offseason. That proved to be a wise move for the last year of his career, as Dempster ended up as part of a World Series-winning Red Sox roster.

Dempster didn’t play a major role in Boston’s title, but Hendricks has gone on to be a key part of a championship winner since switching organizations. The Cubs took home their first World Series in 108 years in 2016, a season in which Hendricks recorded a league-best 2.13 ERA in 190 frames and added an jaw-dropping 1.42 ERA in 25 1/3 playoff innings. Three years later, the Cubs locked up Hendricks to what has always looked like an eminently reasonable contract extension, inking him to a $55.5MM guarantee over four seasons prior to the 2019 campaign.

We don’t know when we’ll see Major League Baseball again, but considering Hendricks’ track record, it seems safe to assume the 30-year-old will continue to hold his own when it does return. He’s one of the most valuable players on the Cubs, but he’s also one who got away for the Rangers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers Kyle Hendricks

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Tigers Get A Good Run From A Budget Pickup

By Steve Adams | May 8, 2020 at 4:32pm CDT

Niko Goodrum’s lone brush with free agency lasted all of eight days. Cut loose by the Twins at the end of the 2017 season after eight largely uninspiring seasons in the minors, Goodrum signed a minor league deal with the rebuilding Tigers. A last-place club signing a little-known non-prospect drew about as much attention as you’d expect: virtually none. Goodrum got a quick 115-word write-up here at MLBTR after his agents announced the signing on Twitter. You’d be hard-pressed to find any sort of lengthy column penned at the time of the signing. It was a garden-variety minor league depth pickup.

Goodrum somewhat surprisingly broke camp with the Tigers in 2018 and received sparse playing time that April (19 games, 10 starts). By mid-May, he was hitting under .200 with a sub-.600 OPS. It wouldn’t have been a surprise to see the Tigers cut bait, but the versatile switch-hitter slowly began to turn things around. After his OPS bottomed out at .597 two years ago to the day — Goodrum bounced back with a .253/.320/.450 slash in his final 428 plate appearances. Along the way, he played all four infield positions and both outfield corners. He finished out the season with a slightly above-average batting line, per wRC+, coupling that with good baserunning.

An average hitter whose manager feels comfortable slotting him pretty much anywhere on the diamond would be a shoo-in for most rosters, and given the state of the Tigers, it was clear that Goodrum had punched his ticket to a 2019 roster spot. Goodrum added center field to his defensive resume early in the 2019 season, but as the year wore on and Jordy Mercer struggled with injuries, he found himself seeing more and more time at shortstop.

The Tigers surely value Goodrum’s versatility, but his strong work at short in sporadic batches this past season should ensure that he opens the year as the Tigers’ everyday option at that position. In just 326 innings there, Goodrum tallied 4 Defensive Runs Saved, a 3.2 Ultimate Zone Rating and 6 Outs Above Average. Among the 38 players who played at least 300 innings at shortstop this past season, Goodrum’s 8.6 UZR/150 ranked seventh.

With the bat, Goodrum took a slight step back but still turned in a solid enough .248/.322/.421 with 12 homers and 12 steals apiece. There’s some reason for additional optimism, too, as Goodrum had an above-average hard-hit rate and upped his walk rate from 8.5 percent in 2018 to 9.7 percent in 2019. And despite an unassuming stolen base total, Goodrum ranked in the 92nd percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed. He’s been successful in 77 percent of his career stolen base attempts (24-for-31), so there’s room for him to create some additional value on the basepaths. Making consistent contact has been a problem for Goodrum, though it’s also worth pointing out that his spike in punchouts last year coincided with some knee and groin injuries over the summer. He still whiffed in 26.8 percent of his 2018 plate appearances, so contact will probably continune to be an issue, but last year’s near-30 percent mark might be higher than should be expected.

If there’s work to be done for Goodrum, it’s in handling certain pitches. The 28-year-old feasted on fastballs (.320/.412/582) and curvevalls (.280/.321/.460) but took home a participation award against most other offerings. Changeups befuddled him (.193/.230/.337), and sliders were downright unfair to him (.157/.214/.216). Given those woeful slash lines, it’s not surprising to see that Goodrum had a swinging-strike rate greater than 20 percent against both those pitch types.

Goodrum clearly isn’t a star, but the Tigers can control him for four more seasons and he won’t be arbitration-eligible until this winter. A plus defensive shortstop with high-end speed and even average skills at the plate is a nice piece to have, though, and if Goodrum can maintain his stellar glovework at short over a larger sample, he’s the type of player who could surprise a lot of onlookers with a three- or four-WAR season. The Tigers have reportedly received trade interest in him in the past, and given the positives laid out here, that’ll likely continue in the future.

Goodrum’s trajectory in some ways mirrors that of Marwin Gonzalez (sans the trash can, presumably), as he’s slowly risen from a versatile defender without much bat to an average switch-hitter who can be be played pretty much anywhere. With the Tigers, that’ll continue to be shortstop, but if he’s eventually traded, he could resume his jack-of-all-trades role. We hear a lot about some of the Tigers’ misses and missed opportunities these days, so it’s only fair to give them credit here for finding an asset that the Twins probably wish they hadn’t let slip through their fingers. They’re the ones who ultimately signed Gonzalez, after all. While it hasn’t been a bad signing, that $21MM might’ve been spent elsewhere if Goodrum were still in the fold.

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Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals Niko Goodrum

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2 Years Ago, The Mets Cut Ties With A Former Star

By Connor Byrne | May 8, 2020 at 12:57am CDT

It seems like ancient history now, but right-hander Matt Harvey used to be considered among the majors’ elite players. A 2010 seventh overall pick of the Mets, Harvey debuted in the bigs in 2012 and truly broke out the next season with 178 1/3 innings of 2.27 ERA ball. From his first taste of MLB action until 2015, Harvey posted a 2.53 ERA with 9.46 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9 over 427 frames, earned an All-Star bid and was part of a pennant-winning team. Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom were supposed to form an unstoppable trio atop the Mets’ rotation for the long haul, but it wasn’t to be, as Harvey experienced a dramatic fall from grace during his time in their uniform.

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Injuries have been an all-too-common problem for Harvey, who underwent Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in October 2013 and sat out all of of the next season. Harvey made a triumphant return to win NL Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2015 – the latest season in which the Mets went to the World Series – but it wasn’t a campaign devoid of controversy for the hurler who became known as the Dark Knight. He and agent Scott Boras pushed for a limit of 180 innings for the year, but Harvey ended up exceeding that amount with ease, tossing 189 1/3 frames in the regular season and racking up another 26 2/3 in the playoffs. The workload may have been too heavy for his taste, but Harvey was actually great that October – including an eight-inning, two-run effort in a Fall Classic-deciding, Game 5 defeat to the Royals. Little did anyone know that shining moments would be so few and far between for him since then.

Rewinding to 2016, you’d have a hard time finding many regular starters who have been worse than Harvey. He underwent thoracic outlet surgery in July of that year, and that now looks like a death knell in hindsight. Now 31 years old, Harvey’s the owner of a 5.56 ERA – the third-highest figure among all qualified starters – in his most recent 390 innings.

Having seen enough of Harvey, the Mets – once justified in believing he was a true ace – gave up on him exactly two years ago. It was on May 8, 2018, that the Mets traded Harvey to the Reds for catcher Devin Mesoraco – another once-promising player who didn’t pan out as hoped. Harvey turned out OK as a Red, contributing 128 innings of 4.50 ERA ball en route to an $11MM guarantee with the Angels during the next period of free agency. Likewise, Mesoraco wasn’t horrible as a member of the Mets, with whom he batted .222/.306/.409 in 229 plate appearances. But neither player is even in baseball at this point.

Mesoraco has all but retired after sitting out the 2019 campaign. Harvey could still resume his career, but it’s not looking good. The former front-end starter was so ineffective in his lone year with the Angels that they released him in July. Harvey did catch on with the Athletics on a minor league contract after that, but he didn’t crack their big league roster at all, and there have been few rumblings about him since he elected free agency at the outset of offseason. In fact, MLBTR’s archives have just two somewhat recent news items on Harvey – one on how he auditioned for the Blue Jays as a reliever during the winter and another saying the Mets aren’t interested in reuniting with him. It’s a stunning descent for a pitcher who was among the best during his Mets heyday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals New York Mets This Date In Transactions History Devin Mesoraco Matt Harvey

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Choi’s The (Ji-) Man

By Connor Byrne | May 7, 2020 at 10:46pm CDT

Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi has been a quietly productive member of the team’s offense over the past couple seasons. The Korea-born Choi –  previously with the Mariners and Orioles – got off to a slow major league start with the Angels in 2016, evidenced by an unimpressive .170/.271/.339 line in 129 plate appearances in his first taste of MLB experience. That caused the Angels to outright Choi for the second time, and he wound up declining that assignment to join the Yankees prior to the 2017 season.

Choi only totaled 18 plate appearances with the Yankees, who then became the latest team to kick him off their 40-man roster in July 2017. While Choi joined the Brewers on a minor league contract in the ensuing offseason, they didn’t give him much of a chance in the majors. After he took 30 at-bats with the big club, the Brewers traded Choi to the Rays in June 2018 for infielder Brad Miller.

The Choi-Miller deal didn’t come off as an exciting one when it occurred, but it’s clear who came out on the better end in hindsight. Miller, now a Cardinal, amassed a mere 74 at-bats as a Brewer in his lone year with the team and was unable to produce much of anything in his brief time with the club. On the other hand, the Rays have stumbled on a pretty good offensive piece in the 28-year-old Choi, who has batted .263/.365/.472 (127 wRC+) with 27 home runs and 3.0 fWAR in 676 plate appearances since he first donned a Tampa Bay uniform.

Last year, his first full season in the bigs, Choi hit .261/.363/.459 (121 wRC+) with 19 homers in 487 PA to help the Rays to 96 wins and a playoff berth. If we’re to believe Statcast, it was not a fluky showing, considering Choi ranked well above average in categories such as expected weighted on-base average, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Meanwhile, FanGraphs estimates that Choi’s performance in 2019 gave the Rays $15.5MM in value, far outweighing the league-minimum salary he made.

The Rays could continue to profit from Choi’s presence in future seasons, as he’s controllable for four more years and one more pre-arbitration season, but that’s not to say he’s without obvious flaws. The clearest problem is that the left-handed Choi has had issues versus southpaw pitchers. The sample size isn’t large (125 PA), but lefties have held Choi to a woeful .185/.288/.296 (64 wRC+) since he got to the majors. That’s clearly not going to get the job done, though the well-constructed Rays are flexible enough that they should be able to shield Choi from facing lefties going forward. The offseason acquisition of righty first baseman Jose Martinez – a renowned destroyer of lefties – ought to help matters.

In typical Rays fashion, Choi and Martinez should provide the small-budget club great production at a minimal cost. Martinez will make less than $2.5MM this season, giving the Rays a potentially terrific offensive tandem at first base for around $3.3MM. You have to get especially creative in building a roster when you don’t have much money to spend, and the Rays’ front office has done just that time and again. The Choi acquisition, although it looked unimportant at the time, is one of many reasons the Rays could enter 2020 (if there is a season) as one of the teams to beat.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Ji-Man Choi

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Which CPBL/KBO Team Are You Adopting?

By Jeff Todd | May 7, 2020 at 8:54pm CDT

It may not be the majors, but the Taiwanese and Korean leagues have offered us all a chance to watch competitive baseball while MLB is on hold. Surely some MLBTR readers are partaking … no doubt a few have even adopted new favorite teams.

It’d be even easier to fall in love with these fun leagues if fans were in attendance. Having attended some Japanese games in person myself, I can tell you it’s quite an experience to see how the game is enjoyed on the other side of the Pacific. But even without the full pageantry, there’s a lot to enjoy — bat flips, of course, being the best-known form of punctuation.

So, if you’re following the Chinese Professional Baseball League and/or Korea Baseball Organization, which team have you taken to rooting for? For those that haven’t yet decided, here’s the list … with the team’s former MLB players noted in case you need some help picking.

CPBL

  • Chinatrust Brothers: Esmil Rogers, Ariel Miranda, C.C. Lee, Jose De Paula
  • Fubon Guardians: Henry Sosa, Chin-lung Hu, Che-Hsuan Lin
  • Rakuten Monkeys: Justin Nicolino, Ryan Carpenter, Lisalverto Bonilla, Elih Villanueva
  • Uni-President 7-Eleven Lions: Ryan Feierabend, Donn Roach, Logan Darnell, Josh Roenicke

KBO

  • Doosan Bears: Jose Miguel Fernandez, Raul Alcantara, Chris Flexen
  • Hanwha Eagles: Warwick Saupold, Jared Hoying, Chad Bell
  • Kia Tigers: Aaron Brooks, Preston Tucker, Drew Gagnon
  • Kiwoom Heroes: Taylor Motter, ByungHo Park, Jake Brigham, Eric Jokisch
  • KT Wiz: Odrisamer Despaigne, William Cuevas, Jae Gyun Hwang
  • LG Twins: Hyun Soo Kim, Tyler Wilson, Casey Kelly
  • Lotte Giants: Dan Straily, Dae Ho Lee, Dixon Machado, Adrian Sampson
  • NC Dinos: Aaron Altherr, Mike Wright, Drew Rucinski
  • Samsung Lions: Seunghwan Oh, Tyler Saladino, David Buchanan, Ben Lively
  • SK Wyverns: Nick Kingham, Ricardo Pinto, Jamie Romak
Adoptive CPBL/KBO Team
NC Dinos (KBO) 18.12% (610 votes)
Lotte Giants (KBO) 12.92% (435 votes)
Samsung Lions (KBO) 11.47% (386 votes)
LG Twins (KBO) 9.39% (316 votes)
Kia Tigers (KBO) 7.19% (242 votes)
Doosan Bears (KBO) 6.65% (224 votes)
SK Wyverns (KBO) 6.42% (216 votes)
Rakuten Monkeys (CPBL) 6.39% (215 votes)
Kiwoom Heroes (KBO) 5.97% (201 votes)
CTBC Brothers (CPBL) 3.92% (132 votes)
KT Wiz (KBO) 3.45% (116 votes)
Hanwha Eagles (KBO) 3.36% (113 votes)
Uni-Lions (CPBL) 2.50% (84 votes)
Fubon Guardians (CPBL) 2.26% (76 votes)
Total Votes: 3,366
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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50 Biggest Deals Of The 2014-15 Offseason

By Jeff Todd | May 7, 2020 at 8:01pm CDT

We previously re-lived the 50 biggest stories of the 2015-16 offseason on a looooong Twitter thread. People seemed to like the concept but some were less than enthused by the cluttered Twitter feed. This time, we’ll do it in a post.

If you need a refresher on the 2014-15 market, you can peruse these background materials:

  • MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents
  • All 12 Players Decline Qualifying Offer
  • 2014-15 Team-by-Team Offseason Outlook
  • 2014-15 Team-by-Team Offseason In Review

Here’s how the fifty biggest moves (in my view) ultimately played out, with links to the original MLBTR posts:

  • 11/10/14 Mets Sign Michael Cuddyer “Essentially, by turning down the qualifying offer, Cuddyer guaranteed himself an additional $5.7MM and a second year.”
  • 11/14/14 Tigers Sign Victor Martinez “He was reportedly the Tigers’ top priority this offseason, and the team characteristically struck quickly … “
  • 11/17/14 Cardinals Acquire Jason Heyward From Braves For Shelby Miller “A blockbuster in every sense of the word … “
  • 11/18/14 Blue Jays Sign Russell Martin “The contract is a major commitment to a catcher who will turn 32 years old in February … “
  • 11/19/14 Athletics Sign Billy Butler “A rough 2014 season reduced his value but certainly could not detract entirely from his solid track record and young age.”
  • 11/25/14 Red Sox Sign Pablo Sandoval “Sandoval, 28, had spent his entire seven-year Major League career with the Giants, becoming a fan favorite due to his “Kung Fu Panda” persona and his clutch bat.”
  • 11/25/14 Red Sox Sign Hanley Ramirez “It’s clear that the Red Sox are looking to amass as many top bats as possible in the increasingly pitching-dominated league.”
  • 11/25/14 White Sox Sign Adam LaRoche “Left-handed power has been a priority for the Sox this offseason, and LaRoche will bring just that to the table … “
  • 11/28/14 Blue Jays Acquire Josh Donaldson “This deal’s franchise-changing implications are evident on its face.”
  • 12/3/14 Braves Sign Nick Markakis “For Atlanta, the move marks yet another fascinating plot point in an offseason of change.”
  • 12/3/14 Blue Jays Acquire J.A. Happ From Mariners For Michael Saunders “Both teams have been aggressive in adding talent early in the offseason, and this move seems to set up additional action for each.”
  • 12/4/14 Mariners Sign Nelson Cruz “He arguably provides the Mariners with the best power upgrade money could buy on the free agent market.”
  • 12/5/14 Yankees Acquire Didi Gregorius In 3-Team Deal With Tigers, Diamondbacks “The Yankees, Diamondbacks and Tigers have officially announced a three-team trade sending shortstop Didi Gregorius from the D-Backs to the Yankees, right-hander Shane Greene from the Yankees to the Tigers, and left-hander Robbie Ray and infield prospect Domingo Leyba to the Diamondbacks.”
  • 12/5/14 Yankees Sign Andrew Miller “Miller will pair with Dellin Betances — an electric breakout story himself — at the back of the Yankee bullpen, giving manager Joe Girardi a pair of dominant late-inning options.”
  • 12/8/14 Indians Acquire Brandon Moss “The Indians will gladly roll the dice on a recovery, especially since the club will have a chance to decide whether to tender Moss after the season.”
  • 12/9/14 White Sox Acquire Jeff Samardzija “Samardzija was born in Indiana, grew up a White Sox fan, and of course played most of his previous big-league career with the Cubs, so his return to Chicago will represent a homecoming.”
  • 12/9/14 Diamondbacks Sign Yasmany Tomas “The 70-grade raw power is the right-handed hitter’s calling card. His other tools appear largely to be average or slightly below, and it remains unclear precisely what position Tomas will play and how his defensive ability will shake out.”
  • 12/10/14 White Sox Sign David Robertson “Some observers felt that the White Sox were in need of a rebuild this winter, but they apparently believe very strongly that they can win in 2015.”
  • 12/11/14 Tigers Acquire Yoenis Cespedes From Red Sox For Rick Porcello “With generally equivalent contractual situations between the two players — Porcello will cost slightly more, but comes with the possibility of a qualifying offer — this deal is a fairly straightforward talent swap.”
  • 12/11/14 Dodgers, Marlins Agree To 7-Player Trade “With the Dodgers reportedly open to dealing Gordon and the Marlins open to trading from their surplus of young arms, the two made sense as trade partners, especially with Miami rather thin in the middle infield.”
  • 12/11/14 Dodgers Acquire Howie Kendrick “The Angels were said to be targeting young pitching for much of the offseason, and they’ve now landed one of the game’s top prospects in Heaney.”
  • 12/11/14 Marlins Acquire Mat Latos “Though Latos has had some recent arm issues, he is an excellent performer when healthy.”
  • 12/11/14 Tigers Acquire Alfredo Simon “Simon comes with plenty of questions as to whether he can repeat his effort.”
  • 12/12/14 Cubs Sign Jason Hammel “Signing Hammel would help them stabilize the middle of their rotation, but presumably would not preclude them from continuing to pursue an ace like Lester.”
  • 12/12/14 Red Sox Acquire Wade Miley “While Miley isn’t the durable lefty the Red Sox were hoping to land during the Winter Meetings, Miley is at least younger and far cheaper than Jon Lester … “
  • 12/12/14 Astros Sign Luke Gregerson “The deal may be surprising at first glance, but only if you have not been paying attention to how good Gregerson has been.”
  • 12/14/14 White Sox Sign Melky Cabrera “The move continues an offseason transformation for the White Sox … “
  • 12/15/14 Twins Sign Ervin Santana “By acting more quickly this time around, he was able to secure the multi-year pact he was looking for.”
  • 12/15/14 Yankees Sign Chase Headley “Even if Headley’s 2012 was the offensive peak of his career — and his numbers since that time suggest that it was — the switch-hitter can still bring plenty of value as an average to above-average bat capable of playing elite defense at third base.”
  • 12/15/14 Pirates Sign Francisco Liriano “For an organization that has seen its fortunes change over the last two years, the investment in a major free agent represents both a continuation and departure.”
  • 12/15/14 Astros Sign Jed Lowrie “The 30-year-old Lowrie will serve as Houston’s shortstop in the early stages of the contract — presumably until top prospect Carlos Correa is ready to take over the position.”
  • 12/16/14 Cubs Sign Jon Lester “In Chicago, Lester will front the rotation of an emerging Cubs team that was on the lookout for top-level pitching to complement their outstanding core of young hitting.”
  • 12/16/14 Dodgers Sign Brandon McCarthy “A four-year guarantee would’ve seemed like a fantasy for McCarthy as recently as last summer when he had a 5.01 ERA through 18 starts with Arizona.”
  • 12/18/14 Padres Acquire Matt Kemp “The trade was just one of several major transactions for the Dodgers during a frenzied Winter Meetings.”
  • 12/19/14 Padres Acquire Wil Myers In Three-Team Trade With Rays, Nats “Unpacking this deal is not easy, but it certainly begins with Myers — not only the marquee piece of this trade, but also the key player in the deal that sent James Shields to the Royals two years ago.”
  • 12/19/14 Padres Acquire Justin Upton “New Padres GM A.J. Preller has completely reshaped his club’s offense in about one week’s time … “
  • 12/19/14 Marlins Acquire Martin Prado ” The Marlins will receive Prado, Phelps, and cash in exchange for Eovaldi, Jones, and German.”
  • 12/23/14 Giants Sign Jake Peavy “While the level of production he showed in the season’s second half is very likely to come back down to Earth, there’s no doubt that a full-time move to AT&T Park and the NL West will be of benefit to Peavy’s numbers.”
  • 12/31/14 Dodgers Sign Brett Anderson “Anderson is still only 26 years old and has generally been quite effective when healthy. But he has not thrown over 100 innings since 2010 … “
  • 1/10/15 Athletics Acquire Ben Zobrist“The Rays’ haul is considerable, as one would expect given Zobrist’s considerable talents.”
  • 1/14/15 Astros Acquire Evan Gattis “By adding Gattis, the Astros are adding another big right-handed bat to a lineup that already features two of them … “
  • 1/16/15 Pirates Sign Jung Ho Kang “Some scouts do think that Kang can be a regular in the Majors.”
  • 1/19/15 Rangers Acquire Yovani Gallardo  “In terms of performance, Gallardo has had his ups and downs but is undoubtedly a quality arm.”
  • 1/19/15 Cubs Acquire Dexter Fowler From Astros For Valbuena, Straily “It’s a win-now move for both teams, with the Cubs trading from depth to upgrade their outfield and the Astros getting a new third baseman and adding rotation insurance.”
  • 1/22/15 Nationals Sign Max Scherzer “The Nationals have officially agreed to sign the market’s top starting pitcher to join a rotation that already ranked among the league’s best.”
  • 2/11/15 Padres Sign James Shields “The deal continues an enormous offseason makeover for the Padres … “
  • 3/12/15 Red Sox Sign Yoan Moncada “Moncada, a 19-year-old switch-hitting infielder, is the most sought-after international prospect in recent history.”
  • 3/24/15 Dodgers Sign Hector Olivera  “The Dodgers outbid several teams for Olivera’s services, as the Padres, Marlins, Braves, Giants, Mariners, Yankees, Twins and A’s were said to have varying degrees of interest.”
  • 4/5/15 Padres Acquire Craig Kimbrel, Melvin Upton “The Padres are beginning the 2015 season with yet another blockbuster trade … “
  • 4/27/15 Rangers Acquire Josh Hamilton “Today’s trade brings to a close a tenure with the Angels that was marred not only by this most recent controversy, but also by injuries and a failure to live up to the lofty expectations that came along with his hefty five-year, $125MM contract.”

 

 

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MLBTR Originals

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Steal 26 Players And Build A Roster

By Connor Byrne | May 7, 2020 at 7:24pm CDT

Here’s a fun exercise during a time without much real baseball: Imagine you’re an expansion general manager who can take one player from 26 of the game’s 30 rosters to build a full major league team. You can’t steal any prospects, though, so someone like Wander Franco’s off limits, and there are going to be occasions where you’ll have to draft for need instead of talent. That might mean passing on someone’s superstar for a comparatively nondescript player at a different position. For the most part, you also have to take affordability and team control into account. Here’s what I came up with…

National League East:

  • Braves – Ronald Acuna Jr., outfielder: A 22-year-old superstar who’s signed to a team-friendly contract through at least 2026 (and possibly ’28 depending on club options)? Don’t mind if I do.
  • Nationals – Juan Soto, outfielder: I’ve quickly filled my starting corner outfield with Acuna and Soto, 21. The spectacular Soto brings five years of team control to the table.
  • Mets – Jacob deGrom, starting pitcher: He’s on the wrong side of 30 (he’ll be 32 in June) and owed $120.5MM through 2023, but I’m OK with spending big on a back-to-back National League Cy Young winner. I’ve got my ace.
  • Phillies – Aaron Nola, starting pitcher: Nola will probably be a back-end starter on this team, which is not a knock on him. The soon-to-be 27-year-old’s a proven righty who will make roughly a guaranteed $35MM through 2022. That’s not much relative to his value, and Nola’s also controllable in 2023 by way of what currently looks like a reasonable $16MM club option.
  • Marlins – Brian Anderson, third baseman/outfielder: He’s overqualified for a bench spot, but that’s a role Anderson will fill on this roster. He’ll be in the mix for four years, including one more pre-arbitration season.

National League West:

  • Dodgers – Walker Buehler, starting pitcher: There are certainly multiple appealing options in LA, but I’ll take the budding ace in Buehler, who’s 25 and won’t become a free agent until after 2024.
  • Diamondbacks – Ketel Marte, middle infield/outfield: This is an easy pick, as the versatile 26-year-old is fresh off a near-MVP season and will continue to play on a bargain contract for a few more seasons. He’ll make a combined $14MM over the next two years, and comes with a pair of affordable club options totaling $22MM.
  • Giants – Pass.
  • Rockies – Scott Oberg, reliever: Kind of a strange pick when the likes of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Jon Gray and German Marquez are on the roster, but I’m picking for need here and trying to keep the budget down. Oberg, 30, put up his second straight terrific season in 2019, and having inked a three-year, $13MM deal in December, the hope is that he’ll continue to provide plenty of surplus value.
  • Padres – Emilio Pagan, reliever: Passing on Fernando Tatis Jr. looks insane, but I feel OK about finding a high-end young shortstop later. This is another need filled at a low price – Pagan, 29, is quietly excellent and under control through 2023.

National League Central:

  • Cardinals – Jack Flaherty, starting pitcher: Sign me up for a front-end rotation piece who’s 24 and won’t be eligible to hit free agency until after 2023.
  • Brewers – Josh Hader, reliever: Christian Yelich is the best player on the Brewers and maybe the best player in the NL. However, I already have my corner outfield set with Acuna and Soto, and I have a certain someone in mind for center. That leaves me with the two-time reigning NL Reliever of the Year in Hader, another star who’s not slated to visit the open market until after 2023.
  • Cubs – Willson Contreras, catcher: I’ve got my starting backstop, a big-hitting, cannon-armed 27-year-old with three seasons’ control left. That sounds good. I’ll have that.
  • Reds – Pass. Many talented players on the Reds, but no one who fits on this particular roster.
  • Pirates – Bryan Reynolds, outfielder: Like the aforementioned Brian Anderson, Reynolds is ridiculously overqualified for a bench role, but he’ll nonetheless be a sub on this club.

American League East:

  • Yankees – Gleyber Torres, shortstop: A Marte-Torres middle infield sounds pretty appealing. Torres is still just 23, and he won’t become a free agent until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.
  • Rays – Nick Anderson, reliever: He’s not the best or most valuable player on the Rays by a long shot, but the 29-year-old Anderson’s yet another major threat out of the bullpen – one who fits this team. MLBTR’s TC Zencka recently wrote about Anderson’s ascent.
  • Red Sox – Rafael Devers, third baseman: The infield’s almost full now. Devers is a 23-year-old who nearly put up 6.0 fWAR in 2019 and still has four seasons of control remaining.
  • Blue Jays – Ken Giles, reliever: It would be easy to grab Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette here, but I don’t have starting spots for either one. Ergo, with relief help still a need, I’m taking the one-year rental in Giles.
  • Orioles – Pass.

American League West:

  • Astros – Yordan Alvarez, outfielder/first baseman: I’m picking the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, 22, as my designated hitter.
  • Athletics – Matt Olson, first baseman: The infield’s now complete. The 26-year-old Olson’s a power-hitting defensive standout who can’t be a free agent until after 2023.
  • Rangers – Jose Leclerc, reliever: This is another selection that puts need and affordability at the forefront. The flamethrowing Leclerc has four guaranteed seasons and less than $20MM on his deal, not to mention a $6.25MM club option for 2024.
  • Angels – Mike Trout, outfielder: Who else but a living legend? And who wouldn’t sign up for an outfield of Acuna and Soto flanking Trout?
  • Mariners – Tom Murphy, catcher: Contreras’ backup, and as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote last month, someone who was really effective last season.

American League Central:

  • Twins – Taylor Rogers, reliever: This is another example of addressing a need over choosing a team’s top player, but that’s not to say Rogers is a slouch. The 29-year-old lefty has kept runs off the board with aplomb throughout his career and still has three years of control left.
  • Indians – Shane Bieber, starting pitcher: This soon-to-be 25-year-old workhorse comes with a half-decade of control.
  • White Sox – Aaron Bummer, reliever: In a vacuum, this is a bad pick. After all, the White Sox have the likes of Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Lucas Giolito on their roster. Again, though, this is an example of mixing need with long-term affordability. Bummer, 26, was lights-out last season, and he signed a club-friendly extension after that.
  • Royals – Whit Merrifield, second baseman/outfielder: The All-Star will be coming off the bench, which is a testament to how good this roster is.
  • Tigers – Pass.

There you have it. Here’s an overview of the roster …

Starting Lineup:

  • Catcher – Willson Contreras
  • First baseman – Matt Olson
  • Second baseman – Ketel Marte
  • Shortstop – Gleyber Torres
  • Third baseman – Rafael Devers
  • Center field – Mike Trout
  • Right field – Ronald Acuna Jr.
  • Left field – Juan Soto
  • Designated hitter – Yordan Alvarez

Bench:

  • Brian Anderson, Bryan Reynolds, Tom Murphy, Whit Merrifield

Rotation:

  • Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber

Bullpen:

  • Scott Oberg, Emilio Pagan, Josh Hader, Nick Anderson, Ken Giles, Jose Leclerc, Taylor Rogers, Aaron Bummer

—

Based on the criteria I followed, that’s my 26-man team. It was enjoyable and challenging to construct. Feel free to put together your own roster.

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Did The Marlins Gift The Indians A Setup Man?

By Steve Adams | May 7, 2020 at 12:39pm CDT

Like any club, the Indians have had their share of notable players slip through their fingers, though the losses of Kirby Yates and Gio Urshela can likely be forgiven when looking at the low costs of acquisition for the likes of Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger. Cleveland’s Feb. 4, 2019 acquisition of righty Nick Wittgren from the Marlins isn’t going to have that type of long-term impact on the franchise, but it nevertheless appears to be another high-quality, low-cost pickup for a team that has had its share of success in that regard in recent years.

Nick Wittgren | Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

When the Marlins designated Wittgren for assignment in Jan. 2019, it registered as something of a surprise, as noted here at the time. He’d had an up-and-down year in 2018 but finished out the season with a 2.94 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.27 HR/9 and a career-best 46 percent ground-ball rate in 33 2/3 innings with Miami. Wittgren was a 27-year-old with a minor league option remaining, a 3.60 ERA (3.50 FIP) and a 116-to-38 K/BB ratio in 127 2/3 innings of relief for the Marlins. He wasn’t expensive — still pre-arbitration at the time — and could’ve been controlled through 2022.

Whatever the reasons, the Marlins felt Wittgren was the most expendable piece on the 40-man roster when they signed Neil Walker. Five days after being designated for assignment, he was traded to Cleveland in exchange for Jordan Milbrath — a minor league righty who is only about two months younger than Wittgren and, at the time, had only briefly reached Triple-A.

For an Indians club that had moved on from the long-solid trio of Cody Allen, Zach McAllister and Dan Otero and, a year prior, had lost iron man Bryan Shaw in free agency, Wittgren proved to be a godsend. While he didn’t break camp with the team, Wittgren was summoned in early April and made his Cleveland debut by pitching 1 1/3 innings with four strikeouts. At no point in 2019 did the righty carry an ERA higher than 3.34, and by the time the season had drawn to a close, Wittgren was regularly pitching in the eighth inning as one of Brad Hand’s primary setup men. His 12 holds ranked third on the club behind Oliver Perez and Adam Cimber.

Wittgren doesn’t have the flashy Statcast numbers that some other relievers we’ve profiled recently do. He’s not a hard-thrower (92.3 mph average fastball), and he ranks below average in terms of spin rates and hard-hit rates. His home-run rate looked ripe for regression in 2018 and did indeed spike in 2019 — although the extent of that spike was surely impacted by the juiced ball (as was the case for virtually every pitcher in the league).

But Wittgren has demonstrated above-average control throughout his career and generally been effective against both righties and lefties (last year’s more pronounced platoon splits notwithstanding). Fielding-independent metrics suggest that the sub-3.00 ERA he’s managed over the past two seasons isn’t likely to hold up, but Wittgren has a career 3.71 FIP in 185 1/3 big league innings at this point.

In some ways, Wittgren mirrors the previously mentioned Shaw, who was a similarly unheralded pickup but emerged as a rock-solid late-inning stabilizer in Cleveland for a half decade. He’s not an overpowering righty but generally has solid control and has, to this point in his career, managed to maintain an ERA south of his FIP and (particularly) his xFIP thanks to home run suppression skills. He has a ways to go in terms of matching Shaw’s uncanny durability, but Wittgren still seems like a solid piece in the ’pen — even if his ERA trends a bit closer to his FIP marks.

As a 28-year-old middle reliever/setup man without huge strikeout totals, we probably won’t see Wittgren named to any All-Star teams in the near future. He’s the type of reliever who even in maintaining success will also maintain relative anonymity. Most seventh- and eighth-inning relievers on smaller market clubs aren’t exactly household names. But considering the cost of acquisition — Milbrath is already out of the Marlins organization after posting a 4.50 ERA an 5.49 FIP in 52 Triple-A frames last year — and the fact that Wittgren can be cheaply controlled through 2022, the trade looks like a nice under-the-radar move that can help Cleveland for the foreseeable future.

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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Nick Wittgren

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The Rays Have To Love The Drake

By Connor Byrne | May 7, 2020 at 12:12am CDT

There are few better examples of a nomad in Major League Baseball than Rays reliever Oliver Drake. He was just a 43rd-round pick of the Orioles in 2008, so odds were against Drake turning into a viable major leaguer from the start. Drake persevered, though, despite having been a member of a half-dozen other organizations already. But it took Drake until the age of 32 to truly come into his own as part of the the Rays’ bullpen last season.

Back when the Rays acquired Drake from the AL East-rival Blue Jays in January 2019, MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote: “Drake, 32 next week, is baseball’s most well-traveled player over the past calendar year. The right-hander pitched for a record-setting five teams in 2018, spending time with the Brewers, Indians, Blue Jays, Angels and Twins. Though he struggled with four of those clubs, Drake actually pitched quite well in Minnesota, giving the Twins 20 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with 22 strikeouts against seven walks over the life of 19 relief appearances.”

As Steve went on to point out, even though Drake couldn’t stick anywhere in 2018, he showed substantial promise when it came to missing bats, limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Indeed, despite an ugly 5.29 ERA in 47 2/3 innings that year, Drake logged a 3.24 FIP with 9.63 K/9, 3.21 BB/9 and a 44.9 percent groundball rate. With the exception of FIP, Drake improved on every single one of those categories last season and turned into a solid member of the Rays’ bullpen, even though they designated him for assignment before the campaign began.

Drake officially joined the big club in late May last year, at which point I wrote that “the 32-year-old has only managed a 4.94 ERA in 23 2/3 Triple-A innings, though he has paired eye-opening strikeout and walk rates (15.21 K/9, 2.66 BB/9) with a 50 percent groundball mark.”

Drake’s run prevention issues went out the window from there, as he went on to record a 3.21 ERA/3.87 FIP over 56 innings. He was oddly quite dominant against left-handers, who registered an abysmal .156 weighted on-base average against him. Same-sided batters had a much better time (.357), but still, Statcast pegged Drake as a great reliever in at least a couple important categories. Drake wound up in the top 10 percent of the league in wOBA (.261, compared to a .279 xwOBA that didn’t come in that much higher) and strikeout percentage. He also logged an expected ERA (3.36) that rivaled his actual bottom-line results, and put up 11.25 K/9 against 3.05 BB/9 with a strong grounder percentage of 52.3.

The Rays couldn’t have asked for much more in 2019 out of Drake, especially considering they got him for just about nothing. And he was one of at least a few low-key success stories who aided in the success of their bullpen (we previously covered Nick Anderson and Colin Poche). Having earned relatively minimal salaries last season, the likes of Drake, Anderson and Poche are the types of players the small-budget Rays need to keep digging up if they’re going to continue to hang with the game’s big spenders in the standings. As a team coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 90 wins, they’ve clearly done a pretty good job of it lately.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Oliver Drake

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Hoffman’s Last Stand

By Steve Adams | May 6, 2020 at 10:04pm CDT

When the Rockies acquired Jeff Hoffman from the Blue Jays in the 2015 Jose Reyes/Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster, the hope was that Hoffman would burgeon into a high-profile starter to pair with fellow prospect Jon Gray atop the rotation. Hoffman, after all, was the No. 9 pick in the 2014 draft and was in the mix for the top overall selection as a junior at East Carolina University until he tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. He was a volatile pick for the Jays, but the industry believed in him; he landed on the top 100 prospects of Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and ESPN between 2015-17.

Hoffman ripped through Class-A Advanced and Double-A in his first full pro season — the same season that saw him shipped from the Jays to the Rox. While the 4.02 ERA he logged in Triple-A in 2016 wasn’t eye-catching, posting that number in the Pacific Coast League while managing better than a strikeout per inning was encouraging. Hoffman looked plenty promising, even if his 2016 MLB debut resulted in a pedestrian 4.88 ERA with a 22-to-17 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 frames.

Jeff Hoffman | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Since that time, though, he’s seen his velocity drop and his results take a nosedive. Hoffman has compiled 178 innings in the Majors over the past three seasons, but he’s been shelled for a 6.32 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.82 HR/9 and a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate that’s a far cry from the 50 percent mark he displayed as a rookie. He dealt with a brief shoulder issue in 2018  but has otherwise been mostly healthy — but he still logged just 8 2/3 frames in the Majors that year while scuffling in Triple-A. Hoffman worked with Driveline Baseball in the 2018-19 offseason in hopes of regaining his velocity and improving his mechanics. Hoffman did average 93.7 mph on his four-seamer in 2019 — up from 92.8 mph in a tiny 2018 sample — but it wasn’t the 99 mph he was pumping in offseason sessions at Driveline, either.

Hoffman made some other changes as well, completely scrapping his slider in favor of more curveballs — a pitch that was regarded as his best offering during his prospect days. He’s tinkered with his release points on all of his pitches over the course of his career and made a particularly notable adjustment to the release point on his heater in 2019. Manager Bud Black discussed that change with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post earlier this spring, noting that the goal was to shorten Hoffman’s delivery in hopes of more consistency. The change was apparent early in the year, but whether by design or otherwise, Hoffman’s vertical release point in September looked much closer to his release point from 2016-18.

Now out of minor league options, Hoffman is in a precarious position. He’s fortunate that the Rockies’ rotation is wide open behind the aforementioned Gray, German Marquez and rebound candidate Kyle Freeland. But this will be his last chance to either establish himself as a contributor with the Rockies or be placed on waivers and see his fate left up to the DFA gods. Then again, perhaps a change of scenery would ultimately be best for Hoffman.

Like many pitchers before him, Hoffman has been hammered at Coors Field, where his career 7.03 ERA is more than two runs higher than his 4.88 away mark. That road ERA is hardly an encouraging number — particularly with FIP, xFIP and SIERA marks north of 5.00 — but it does illustrate that his home surroundings haven’t done him any favors.

Beyond those rudimentary home/road splits, another club might try a different approach with Hoffman. As is the case with Carson Fulmer, who finds himself in a similar position, Hoffman has a high-spin four-seamer (88th percentile) — but he works primarily at the bottom of the zone with the pitch year after year (2016, 2017, 2019). The resulting 7.2 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t much to look at, nor is the .323/.428/.741 slash opponents posted against the pitch. The pitiful .151/.204/.267 line opponents posted against his hook, which also has above-average spin, is much more appealing though.

Even without the upper-90s heat he’s had at times in the past, Hoffman would likely miss more bats working near the top end of the zone. It’s not a novel concept — pitchers throughout the league have increasingly gravitated toward that approach — but 18 of the 21 homers Hoffman surrendered in 2019 came on that four-seamer. Clearly, pitching down in the zone isn’t getting the job done, so a change of approach can’t hurt at this point. And if the Rockies haven’t pushed him toward that approach, perhaps another club would be willing to do so.

At this point, Hoffman enters a make-or-break year where he’ll have to either lock down a spot on the pitching staff or likely be made available to other clubs. Expanded rosters may lengthen the leash that he’s given, but Hoffman is surely on thin ice at this point. If he fades from the picture, the Rockies will have just one player left — right-hander Jesus Tinoco — remaining from the trade of one of the franchise’s most iconic players.

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Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals Jeff Hoffman

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