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Trea Turner

Padres Offered Trea Turner $342MM Deal

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Dec. 6, 12:35pm: The Padres offered Turner a guarantee of $342MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

11:51am: The Padres’ offer to Turner was not only higher than the offer he accepted from Philadelphia but would have made Turner the highest-paid infielder in baseball, topping Francisco Lindor’s $341MM deal with the Mets, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The exact length of the contract, potential deferrals, etc. aren’t known at this time, but it’s a nevertheless jarring follow-up revelation in the wake of the Phillies’ deal with Turner. Lindor’s contract is currently the third-largest guarantee in Major League history.

While Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in the aftermath of the Padres’ failed bid that the team is no longer pursuing shortstops, Olney writes that the Padres have at least been in touch with Bogaerts, echoing a similar sentiment reported last night by Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

More broadly, Olney reports that the Padres are “very serious about trying to do all they can” to win the franchise’s first World Series, which raises the question as to whether San Diego might emerge as a legitimate entrant in the bidding for Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and other top remaining free agents.

Dec. 5: The Phillies made the biggest splash of the offseason to date, agreeing to terms on an 11-year deal with Trea Turner this afternoon. Once finalized, it’ll make the two-time All-Star the 10th player in MLB history to land a contract worth at least $300MM.

Massive as the contract was, it apparently wasn’t the highest offer the shortstop had on the table. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports the Padres made an offer which topped the one Turner accepted from Philadelphia. Specifics of the proposal aren’t clear, but Gelb adds the gap was wide enough San Diego’s offer would’ve translated into more money even after adjusting for California’s higher state income tax rate than Pennsylvania’s.

In the months leading up to Turner’s free agency, there was a fair bit of speculation about whether geography would play a role in his decision. He’s a Florida native who went to college at North Carolina State. His wife Kristen is from New Jersey. Turner reportedly expressed a desire to remain on the East Coast when the Nationals traded him to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline, and while he downplayed geographic preferences in free agency, there seems to have been some truth behind the rumblings he could prefer heading back across the country. Turner also rejoins longtime Washington teammate Bryce Harper and hitting coach Kevin Long in Philadelphia.

On the one hand, losing out on a star player even after making the highest offer has to be a tough blow for San Diego. Yet it also illustrates the possibility for the franchise to continue pushing chips in as they aggressively seek to augment one of the game’s more talented rosters. One could argue shortstop is more of a luxury buy for the Friars anyhow, with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth all on hand as middle infield options. Yet San Diego was willing to put forth one of the largest contracts in league history to try to add another star to the lineup.

San Diego has also been tied to Xander Bogaerts this offseason. That they were the high bidder on Turner doesn’t inherently mean they’ll top the market for Bogaerts instead, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they pivot in that direction now that their primary target is off the board. The Padres have exceeded the luxury tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, and they’d have to do so again to add any of the star free agent shortstops. Roster Resource estimates their CBT ledger around $3MM below the base tax threshold of $233MM, and signing Turner for an average annual value around the $27.3MM he received would’ve pushed them into the second tier of penalization. That’d have involved a 50% tax on the first $20MM — an extra $10MM — and further taxes from that point forward, but it was apparently a bill owner Peter Seidler was content to foot for another star. How or if they reallocate that money, either in a pursuit of Bogaerts or in more directly addressing areas of need like first base and the corner outfield, remains to be seen.

As for the Phils, they now anticipate looking to the pitching market after adding to an already loaded position player core. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets the middle of the rotation and back of the bullpen are target areas for the Phils, who now aren’t far off the base luxury tax tier themselves. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters this evening the club is looking for a setup-type reliever who could mix and match with Seranthony Domínguez, Connor Brogdon and José Alvarado at the end of games (via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

While the Phillies certainly aren’t taking their foot off the gas, Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of adding another player who’d rejected a qualifying offer. The Phils forfeited their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s amateur draft plus $1MM in international signing bonus space for Turner, who’d turned down a QO with the Dodgers. They’d lose their third and sixth picks to sign another qualified free agent, and Dombrowski told Coffey and others the team doesn’t have “much appetite” for that kind of pick forfeiture.

Padres Unlikely To Pursue Other Shortstops After Missing Out On Trea Turner

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The Padres’ bid to sign Trea Turner —  which reportedly included a larger offer than he accepted in Philadelphia, even after accounting for California’s higher income tax — caught plenty of fans and pundits off-guard. The Padres already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as options in the infield, and San Diego also has a pair of $300MM players on the roster in Machado and Tatis (though the former could opt out following the 2023 season).

There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.

Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.

Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the  vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.

Phillies To Meet With Top Four Free Agent Shortstops

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The Phillies have meetings scheduled with all four of the top free agent shortstops, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. They’ll sit down with the representatives for each of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts before the Winter Meetings kick off in earnest next Monday.

Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.

The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.

All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.

Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.

The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.

Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.

Padres Notes: Shortstops, Turner, Stammen

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The Padres have been rumored to be a surprise entrant in the market for the “Big Four” shortstops and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says this could “possibly even” include Trea Turner.

Since the Friars were recently connected to the shortstop market generally and Xander Bogaerts specifically, it’s not shocking that they would have some degree of interest in Turner as well. However, despite the “Big Four” shortstops often being lumped together, there’s a difference between them. MLBTR predicted Turner and Carlos Correa to earn $32MM per season or higher while Bogaerts is projected at an average annual value of $27MM and Dansby Swanson at $22MM.

Those might seem like small differences but they are magnified for a Padres team that paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two years. The CBT system features escalating penalties for repeat payors, with a third consecutive year over the line resulting in a 50% tax for every dollar over. The Padres currently have a CBT number of $230MM, according to Roster Resource, just $3MM shy of this year’s lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. The second threshold is $253MM, something that the Padres would certainly go over if they add one of the top shortstops, at which point their spending would be subject to a 62% tax.

Since the Padres are also looking to upgrade their rotation, it’s always seemed hard to picture them laying out a huge contract for a shortstop and paying such a tax premium to do so. There’s also the on-field fit, which isn’t super smooth since they have Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstop options. It’s been suggested they could add a shortstop and play Kim at second, Jake Cronenworth at first base and Tatis in the outfield, but it’s probably easier to just sign a first baseman or a left fielder.

Elsewhere in Padres news, Rosenthal reports in a separate column that the club is likely to re-sign reliever Craig Stammen. The veteran, who turns 39 in March, recently spoke about his desire to return in 2023 despite dealing with a shoulder injury in the second half of the season. He’s been in San Diego for six seasons now and it seems like there’s interest on both sides in making it seven.

Orioles Checking In On Free Agent Shortstops

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This offseason features a group of shortstops often referred to as the “Big Four,” which consists of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts an Dansby Swanson. While they have been connected in rumors to most of the high-spending clubs around the league, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Orioles have checked in on them. Heyman adds that it’s more likely they invest in starting pitching since their need at shortstop isn’t terribly strong and there are other teams involved, but the interest is noteworthy nonetheless.

The O’s have been deeply committed to a rebuild in recent years and have been among the least active teams in free agency. The last time they gave a free agent a contract longer than one year was to Alex Cobb back in March of 2018. The O’s have endured five straight losing seasons from 2017 to 2021, with the club finishing last in the American League East in all four full, 162-game seasons in that stretch. However, the club turned a corner in 2022, with their young core starting to emerge and helping the club go 83-79. That still only amounted to a fourth-place finish in the division, but they flirted with the postseason race for much of the second half and seem poised to see better results going forward.

On the heels of that step forward, general manager Mike Elias has spoken about going into a more competitive phase of the club’s rebuilding plan, though he has also attempted to temper expectations at the same time. “We’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” Elias said, which would seem to be a coded way of saying that they will be more active than in years past but aren’t planning to suddenly jump to the top of the market.

Still, there are reasons for them to at least hover around the market and keep an eye on it. Just one year ago, Correa didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for and ended up settling for a three-year deal with high salaries and opt outs after each season. If one of the “Big Four” found themselves in a similar situation this year, the O’s would be a good to try to take advantage of it.

Since the O’s have eschewed spending for so long, their payroll outlook is essentially clear. Their commitments for 2023 are just $41MM, according to Roster Resource, less than what Max Scherzer will make by himself. Despite their recent devotion to skinflintism, they ran payrolls around $150MM from 2016 to 2018 and can surely start inching their way back up there in the coming years. They could easily fit a sizeable contract on their ledger if they really wanted to. Giving out a second year on a contract would be even easier as their commitments for 2024 are exactly zero.

Leaving the financials aside, adding a shortstop also makes sense for pure baseball reasons. Jorge Mateo was the club’s everyday option this year, getting into 150 games on the season. Advanced defensive metrics were all quite fond of his work in the field and he stole 35 bases, but his work at the plate was subpar. He struck out in 27.6% of his plate appearances while walking in just 5.1% of them, finishing with a batting line of .221/.267/.379 and a wRC+ of 82. Mateo is still just 27, turning 28 in June, so it’s possible that he is still developing, but his numbers at Triple-A are fairly similar. His speed and defense still allow him to be a useful player, with FanGraphs calculating his WAR at 2.8 in 2022, but without a development at the plate it’s possible that is his ceiling.

In the long run, things get a bit more crowded since the club has a number of highly-touted middle infield prospects. Gunnar Henderson made his MLB debut in 2022 and played well in his first 34 games. He played mostly third base but could slide back to shortstop if that became the club’s ideal alignment. One of the club’s top prospects, Coby Mayo, is primarily a third baseman and it could make sense to bump Henderson back into the middle infield. Another top prospect, Joey Ortiz, seems poised to jump to the big leagues in 2023. He’s played some second and third base but is primarily a shortstop. Jordan Westburg’s situation is fairly similar. There’s also Jackson Holliday, just selected with the first overall pick in June. He’s still just 18 years old, turning 19 in two days, but he is hoped to be pushing into the middle infield picture down the line.

Given all those internal options, giving out a contract of $20-30MM over 7-9 years doesn’t seem like the most obvious use of the club’s resources, even if they do have money to spend. If they did consider it, it’s been often pointed out that Elias was with the Astros at the time Correa was drafted and was reportedly personally involved in the club’s decision to select him. He’s surely still quite fond of Correa, but the shortstop isn’t likely to settle for another subpar deal after doing it a year ago. He changed agencies during the lockout, a sign that he wasn’t happy with the way things were going. Though he did settle for a short-term deal last year, it’s long seemed obvious that the plan would be to return to the open market this year and find the kind of contract that will take him through the majority of his remaining career. MLBTR predicted him to land a deal worth $288MM over nine years, or $32MM per season.

The other three shortstops might require less expenditure than Correa, but not much less. MLBTR predicted Turner to get $268MM over eight years, Bogaerts to get $189 over seven years and Swanson $154MM over seven. Even at the lower end, Swanson is projected for $22MM per season. There doesn’t seem to be any shortage of suitors for their services this winter either, as the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Twins, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs and Mariners are some of the clubs to have reported interest in that group. As mentioned, it’s probably more likely that the Orioles devote their resources to starting pitching, with their interest in that market already reported.

Phillies Reportedly Have Trea Turner As Top Priority

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The Phillies have shortstop Trea Turner as their top priority, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. This lines up with reporting from Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers, both of ESPN, who each relay word from sources that feel the Phillies will sign one of the “Big Four” shortstops, which includes Turner as well as Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

The Phillies have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a few years now. They signed Didi Gregorius going into 2020, giving him a one-year deal. He performed well enough in the shortened season to stick around on a two-year deal, but that went south almost immediately. After he hit just .209/.270/.370 in 2021, there was some speculation that the Phillies would jump into last year’s big shortstop sweepstakes, featuring Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien.

They ultimately stayed on the sidelines, giving Gregorius a chance to redeem himself in the last year of his deal. That didn’t work out, as he hit .210/.263/.304 this year and got released in August. They had to turn to their backup plan, which was prospect Bryson Stott. He had struggled over the first couple of months, hardly surprising given that it was his first major league action, getting optioned to the minors in April but returning after just a couple of weeks.

At the end of May, Stott was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83. His glovework at short was considered below average by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him just a smidge above. That’s hardly a disastrous season for a rookie, but the Phils evidently didn’t see enough to consider Stott their long-term solution at the position and seem to be involved in the shortstop market for a second straight year. The club declined Jean Segura’s option, creating an opening at second base that Stott could theoretically fill. Both DRS and OAA liked his glovework better on that side of the bag, making it a sensible approach for the club.

While any of the four shortstops would be logical for this plan, Turner would certainly be an exciting fit. In his time in the big leagues so far, he’s proven himself to be one of the best all-around players in the game, succeeding in just about every aspect. In 849 career games, he’s hit 124 home runs and stolen 230 bases. His career batting line is .302/.355/.487, leading to a wRC+ of 124. UZR doesn’t like his work at shortstop, but both DRS and OAA have him above average for his career. For a Phillies team that’s full of sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Rhys Hoskins, a dynamic player like Turner, who turns 30 in June, would provide an exciting new element.

Of course, given his elite skills, he will have to paid at a high level. MLBTR predicted a contract of $268MM over eight years, an average annual value of $33.5MM. The Phillies currently have about $179MM committed to 2023, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax number of $191MM. Last year’s Opening Day payroll was $229MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they still have plenty of room to work with if they plan on spending at a comparable level this year. They would likely want to keep some powder dry for addressing other needs, such as their pitching staff, but it’s easy to see how they could fit a Turner-sized contract in here. Even adding about $30MM or so to that CBT number doesn’t get them over the lowest threshold for 2023, which will be $233MM. Plus, given their World Series run in 2022, they likely banked some extra revenues that could potentially lead to a bigger budget in 2023.

Turner received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, meaning any team that signs him will have to pay a cost beyond just the money. Since the Phillies paid the luxury tax in 2022, they would have to forfeit their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the next draft, in addition to seeing their international bonus pool dropped by $1MM. If Turner does indeed sign with someone other than the Dodgers, they would receive an extra pick after the fourth round, a diminished return because they also paid the luxury tax this year.

Of course, the Phillies won’t be alone in any pursuit of Turner. Morosi mentions that the Giants are involved, but adds that they will likely want to see how the Aaron Judge situation plays out before pivoting to a shortstop pursuit. Turner’s also been connected in rumors to the Cubs and Mariners, while there are other teams that would make speculative sense. If one of those clubs would eventually edge out the Phillies and acquire Turner, they could pivot to the other big names, having already been connected to Bogaerts.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Free Agent Notes: Bellinger, Turner, Longoria

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Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, Cody Bellinger has had no shortage of potential suitors, reports The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). Bowden adds that Bellinger had calls from at least five teams “within an hour of him being non-tendered” and that “several more have called since.”

Since slashing an impressive .305/.406/.629 with 47 homers in 2019, Bellinger has had a steep decline. Over the last two seasons, the former MVP has struggled to a .198/.256/.355 line with a high 27.1% strikeout rate and below-average 7.7% walk rate. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, Bellinger suffered a right shoulder injury celebrating during the 2020 NLCS, followed by unrelated leg and rib issues that seemingly zapped his offensive production.

Nevertheless, as Bellinger’s offensive production declined, he has taken on more of a defensive role. Reaching the majors as a first baseman, Bellinger has since transitioned to a full-time role in center field and has been rated favorably by both Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast. Without substantial offensive production over the past couple of years, Bellinger will likely earn less than the $18.1MM projected via arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but will almost surely remain on a Major League roster.

Elsewhere in the League:

  • In addition to the Mariners’ interest in Gleyber Torres and Kolten Wong, the club has also checked in on Trea Turner and “all the other free agent middle infielders,” per Bowden. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has previously stated that the organization would prefer to land a shortstop that would like to play second base, and that J.P. Crawford is the Mariners’ shortstop. While Torres and Wong are both primary second basemen, Turner has limited experience at the position, having played only 436 2/3 innings at second since 2017. Furthermore, all of those innings were in 2021 after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, who already had Corey Seager. Perhaps more importantly, shortstops are traditionally paid more than second basemen. MLBTR predicts Turner to receive an eight-year, $268MM contract, which would smash the record for the highest AAV contract for a second baseman.
  • 15-year veteran Evan Longoria has adjusted his free agent wishes, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Longoria, “hopes to play one or two more years and is open to any competitive team.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today had previously reported that Longoria was only considering the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks as potential free agent landing spots. Longoria would be a nice addition to any contending team, with the 37-year-old hitting a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season. However, injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games over the past two seasons.

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

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The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

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